贸易协议的积极影响与市场反应

on all goods coming from Europe, 0% on US goods going to Europe. So an opening up of Europe markets, paying us 15% and on top of that getting commitments like $750 billion, almost a trillion dollars of energy purchases from the US. Or look at Japan, which they announced last week, another huge market. Again, similar. They're going to pay tariffs to the United States. No tariffs imposed on the United States and they're going to invest $550 billion dollars into the US in a way the president gets to direct. So I would love I would I just think we need to give the president credit where credit is due. Everybody said this was going to lead to retaliation to trade wars was going to be disastrous for the US and all we've seen so far is deals deals deals deals. And I have to say, if this was the CEO of one of our companies, right, let's say we had a board meeting at the start of the year and he outlined these plans and we said, "Hey, we're really nervous about this. You know, this is a high-risk, high-reward strategy. It's either going to backfire and we're going to fire you or it's going to work really well and we give you a bonus." If we're measuring them halfway through the year, I would say that he's in line for a bonus.

所有从欧洲进口的商品，我们要支付15%的关税，而美国出口到欧洲的商品则为0%。这相当于欧洲市场向我们开放，对我们支付15%的关税，除此之外，还获得了价值约7500亿美元、近万亿美元的美国能源采购承诺。再看看日本上周宣布的，又是一个巨大的市场。情况类似，他们将向美国支付关税，而美国不对他们征收关税，并且他们将以总统可以指导的方式对美国投资5500亿美元。我非常希望，我认为我们需要将功劳归于总统。所有人都说这将导致报复、引发贸易战，对美国来说将是灾难性的。但到目前为止，我们所看到的只有协议、协议、协议、协议。我必须说，如果这是我们公司的一位首席执行官，假设我们在年初召开董事会，他概述了这些计划，而我们说：“嘿，我们对此非常紧张。你知道，这是一项高风险、高回报的战略。它要么会适得其反，我们要解雇你；要么会非常成功，我们会给你奖金。” 如果我们对他们进行年中评估，我会说他正等着拿奖金。

AI领域的快速回归与中国模型的崛起

All right, the summer pods back in action. Uh, good to see you guys. We have our good friend Sunny Madra, the COO of Grock, joining from I don't know, Sunny, it looks like some fancy hotel in Saudi Arabia in the middle of the night. Good to see you.

好了，夏季播客恢复运行。很高兴见到你们。我们请来了Grock的首席运营官Sunny Madra，他正从我不知道哪里——Sunny，看起来像是在沙特阿拉伯一家豪华酒店，半夜时分。很高兴见到你。

You picked it up. You picked it up. You have a good You have a good eye for the Middle East. And Bill, Bill, you got off your boat catching blue fin tuna. You're uh you look like you're in some office somewhere. So good to see you.

你猜对了。你猜对了。你对中东有很好的眼光。比尔，比尔，你刚从捕捞蓝鳍金枪鱼的船上下来的样子。你看起来像是在某个办公室里。很高兴见到你。

I am uh borrowing Mitch Lasky's incredible podcast setup in in our Woodside office with the uh Oh, nice high highde SLR camera.

我正在借用米奇·拉斯基（Mitch Lasky）在伍德赛德办公室里令人难以置信的播客设置，用的是那个……哦，不错的。高端单反相机。

Nice. You're looking you're looking good. Sunny, of course, our good buddy Sunny is the COO of Grock. Um I don't know, Sunny, probably a few hundred million of revenues, maybe doubling year-over-year. I just saw something. You're rumored to be raising 600 million at a $6 billion valuation. Maybe that has something to do with you being over in Saudi Arabia. Um, and of course, you're hosting all the uh open-source models in in your inference clouds around the world. Is that about right.

不错。你看上去不错。Sunny，我们老朋友，Grock的COO。嗯，我不知道，Sunny，可能是几亿美元的收入，也许是同比增长一倍。我刚看到一些报道，你们传闻将以60亿美元的估值筹集6亿美元。这可能和你现在在沙特阿拉伯有关。当然，你也在世界各地的推理云中托管所有开源模型。对吗？

Yeah, you got you got it right. You touched on all the key points. You know, we don't comment on speculation, but you touched on some good points.

是的，你都说对了。你提到了所有要点。你知道，我们不对猜测发表评论，但你确实说了一些好点子。

Well, it's great to see you in DC last week. Um, you know, our good friend David Saxs is really on a heater. First, it was the crypto summit a couple weeks ago. Of course, the Genius Act got passed, which really teed up these stable coins and and and now the Clarity Act around market structures making its way through Congress. And then of course last week was the AI summit where the president laid out um a multi-prong strategic plan for American AI that both extends the government's investment and and leadership um but also accelerates the distribution of the American AI stack around the world. Both of those things, both the crypto and the AI summit that he put together, I thought are key contributions really to the next generation of American technology leadership around the world. It's amazing to see that much progress in six months. Congrats to Sachs and the rest of the team. Catios, Dean Ball, Sriram, they really all kind of brought it brought the heat.

上周在华盛顿见到你真是太好了。我们的好朋友大卫·萨克斯（David Saxs）最近势头很猛。首先是几周前的加密货币峰会。当然，《天才法案》（Genius Act）也通过了，它为稳定币奠定了基础，现在关于市场结构的《清晰法案》（Clarity Act）也在国会审议中。然后，当然是上周的AI峰会，总统在那里阐述了美国AI的多方面战略计划，既扩大了政府的投资和领导地位，也加速了美国AI技术栈在全球的传播。这两件事，加密货币峰会和AI峰会，我认为都是对下一代美国技术全球领导力的关键贡献。六个月内看到这么多进展真是令人惊叹。祝贺萨克斯和团队的其他成员。Catios、Dean Ball、Sriram，他们都带来了火力。

Yeah, for sure. Of course, the AI action plan was focused on maintaining global AI leadership, particularly over China. And I hate to say it, but we have really been our own worst enemy. You know, it seems like excess regulation on everything from energy production to model development to semiconductor chip distribution. It's really been a bit of an unforced air by the US over the course of the last 24 months and handed a lot of momentum to China. and I think really threatened our leadership. So, this is kind of a 180 to get America back on track. You know, we've underestimated Huawei and the Chinese AI development, model development really at every step of the way. So, I want to kick off today talking about recent developments with the base models and reasoning models coming out of China because, you know, we had this freakout moment earlier in the year with Deepseek that we all remember. Remember, Nvidia stock plummets. Everybody in Washington's talking about it, but since then, you know, people kind of forgot about Deep Seek. But the reality is China's been on a roll. I mean, they're dominating the global landscape for open-source models. We've seen six to seven high-quality open- source model providers, many of the fastest growing in the world. And this at a time when American open- source, right, Llama 4, has been sputtering a bit, really losing its mojo around the world. Um, so Quen, the open- source model out of Alibaba has passed, I think, 400 million downloads. Of course, that's released like these other models under the Apache 2.0 open source license. So, very open as Bill's talked about. But, Sunny, you tweeted, and one of the reasons I wanted to get you on the pod this week is you tweeted, you know, that the all of these open- source models are really coming together in China. Um, they're leveraging one another. they can distill and generate synthetic data on each other's work. And you went so far as to suggest this might allow them to pass the best proprietary models coming out of the US um yet this year, maybe by Q4 of this year. So why don't we dig in there? What is your theory of the case? Why is China, you know, doing so well in open source? And should US model companies like OpenAI and Anthropic be concerned?

当然，AI行动计划的重点是保持全球AI领导地位，尤其是在中国之上。我不想这么说，但我们确实是自己最大的敌人。你知道，从能源生产到模型开发，再到半导体芯片分销，似乎对所有事情都有过度的监管。在过去24个月里，美国确实犯了一些“非受迫性失误”，并将很多动力拱手让给了中国，我认为这确实威胁到了我们的领导地位。所以，现在是一个180度的大转变，让美国重回正轨。你知道，我们低估了华为和中国在AI开发、模型开发方面的进展，几乎每一步都低估了。所以，今天我想从中国推出的基础模型和推理模型开始谈起，因为我们今年早些时候都经历过关于Deepseek的那次“恐慌时刻”。还记得吗？英伟达的股价暴跌。华盛顿的每个人都在谈论它，但从那以后，人们似乎忘记了Deepseek。但现实是，中国一直在加速发展。我的意思是，他们在全球开源模型领域占据主导地位。我们看到了六到七个高质量的开源模型提供商，其中许多是世界上增长最快的。而此时，美国的开源项目，比如Llama 4，却有些停滞不前，在全球范围内失去了活力。来自阿里巴巴的开源模型Quen，我想下载量已经超过了4亿次。当然，像其他模型一样，它是根据Apache 2.0开源许可发布的，所以非常开放，正如比尔所说。但Sunny，你发了推文，我本周想请你来做节目的原因就是你发推说，所有这些开源模型在中国真正地聚集起来了。它们正在相互利用，它们可以提炼并生成关于彼此工作的合成数据。你甚至提出，这可能使它们在今年年底，也许是第四季度，就能超越美国最好的专有模型。所以我们深入探讨一下吧。你的论点是什么？为什么中国在开源领域做得这么好？像OpenAI和Anthropic这样的美国模型公司是否应该感到担忧？

Yeah. So, uh, let let's kind of tie it into, I think, three important things that we see happening. The first one being, you know, the Chinese and and the president addressed this at the AI summit, right? He addressed um the the point around using copyrighted work and he says, you know, he used a great example. If you read a book and you use it, you're not violating the copyright there. And so, he addressed that concern and that was one of the major things that, you know, a lot of people didn't talk about, but I think it's important for the model makers. And so the Chinese just have been able to work around that because of, you know, their position on IP. And what we're really seeing here, and I think, you know, Bill teed it up even better off of my tweet, which is, um, you know, they're able to compound. So what you're seeing very quickly is both the open- source nature, the open weights nature, uh, allow them to basically compound on each other. So instead of working in silos and instead of having to create giant training clusters um separately they can basically take each other's work build on top of it almost consider it like a remix of someone's model K2 sort of a well-known remix of what what Deepseek had done and now we're starting to see that happen really fast and we're seeing two dimensions of it going quickly. One we're seeing the leading edge models getting quicker and we're then seeing them distill down smaller you know turbo models really really fast as well. There was a a release today of a quen you know 30 billion parameter model which is performing as good as GPT40. So think about that right and GPT40 was you know world class not that long ago. So those are the reasons that we're really seeing an acceleration right now.

是的。所以，让我们把它与我们看到的三个重要方面联系起来。第一个是，你知道，中国，以及总统在AI峰会上谈到了这个问题，对吗？他讨论了使用受版权保护作品的问题，他说，他举了一个很好的例子：如果你读了一本书并使用它，你并没有侵犯版权。所以他解决了这个担忧，这是很多人没有谈论但对模型开发者很重要的一个方面。中国只是因为他们在知识产权方面的立场，得以绕开这个问题。我们真正看到的是——我认为比尔根据我的推文解释得更好——他们能够进行“复合式发展”。所以你很快看到的是，开源的性质和开放权重（open weights）的性质，允许他们相互复合。所以，他们不是在孤岛中工作，不需要单独创建巨大的训练集群，他们可以拿走彼此的工作并在此基础上进行构建，几乎可以将其视为对某人模型的“混音”（remix），K2是Deepseek所做工作的著名混音版。现在我们看到这种现象发展得非常快，并且我们看到了它快速发展的两个维度：一方面是前沿模型进步得更快了；另一方面，我们看到它们被快速地提炼成更小的、更快的“涡轮模型”。今天发布了一个300亿参数的Quen模型，其性能与GPT-4o一样好。所以想想看，GPT-4o在不久前还是世界级的。所以这些就是我们现在看到加速的原因。

从“鹦鹉学舌”到“推理引擎”的技术转变

You know it I want to dig into this model development in particular. You know a year ago we were talking about these models being these you know stochastic parrots um you know and we really had to compress the entire internet. So you go back to GPT4, you know, and and and you're compressing, you know, the entire internet. But now we really don't need to do it because we've trained them to use tools like the internet, right? The they're true reasoning engines. When I ask a question today, you know, it doesn't just spit out an answer immediately. It goes and uses the tool and it searches the internet. Um, so if you don't have to compress all this wikipedia information, I don't know, take take a subject like World War II, you just need to know how to go out and use the internet to find the information to summarize it in real time. How has that changed the pace of progress and the balance between open and closed?

你知道，我想深入探讨一下这个模型开发。一年前我们还在谈论这些模型是“随机鹦鹉”，我们真的需要压缩整个互联网。回到GPT-4，你就是在压缩整个互联网。但现在我们真的不需要那样做了，因为我们已经训练它们去使用像互联网这样的工具，对吧？它们是真正的推理引擎。当我今天问一个问题时，它不会立即吐出一个答案。它会去使用工具，搜索互联网。所以，如果你不需要压缩所有这些维基百科的信息，比如“第二次世界大战”这个主题，你只需要知道如何实时地去互联网上查找信息并总结它。这如何改变了进步的速度以及开源与封闭之间的平衡？

Yeah. And so it's spot on, right, Brad? what we see now and you see it when you use these reasoning models and what I suggest everyone do is when you're using a reasoning model you can usually expand out its thought process so when you ask a question it'll say oh the person is asking a question about this what should I do let me go and maybe search the internet let me go do a few different things it can have a lot of different tools and so the push has been towards you know really really strong reasoning models and you know we have to give credit there openai really started that with 01 that was really the first reasoning model that was put out there but I think on the back of the research church in the back of what you know everyone talked about and you know the pod's good friend Nome Brown was the leader on that program everyone's been able to look at that and say let's reframe the problem and this allows us to build stronger reasoning models that don't have to compress like you said all the internet's information and once they're coupled with strong tools you start getting these really really incredible results that don't even just show up in benchmarks because none of the benchmarks really allow you to use a tool to answer the results and if they did we're going to see a whole bunch of new set of results that happened there.

是的，布拉德，这完全正确。我们现在看到的就是，当你在使用这些推理模型时，我建议每个人都这样做：当你使用一个推理模型时，你可以展开它的思考过程。所以当你问一个问题时，它会说“哦，提问者在问一个关于这个的问题，我该怎么做？让我去也许搜索一下互联网，让我做几件不同的事情。”它可以拥有很多不同的工具。因此，推动力一直朝着构建真正强大的推理模型发展，我们必须承认，OpenAI通过01确实开启了这一趋势，那确实是第一个推出的推理模型。但我想，在研究的基础之上，在大家讨论的基础上，以及播客的好朋友诺姆·布朗（Nome Brown）领导的那个项目的基础上，每个人都能从中吸取经验，说“让我们重新定义问题”，这使得我们能够构建更强大的推理模型，它们不必像你所说的那样压缩互联网上的所有信息。一旦它们与强大的工具相结合，你就会看到真正令人难以置信的结果，这些结果甚至不会体现在基准测试中，因为没有基准测试真正允许你使用工具来得出答案。如果它们允许，我们将看到出现一整套新的结果。

中国开源模型的成功原因与历史基础

Hey Bill, just in many ways I think this validates what you were arguing over the last 6 to 12 months. You said this was likely to happen. Everybody knows you're you're one of the biggest proponents of open source in the world. Um and you were telling people don't make you know the Chinese are going to use open source to their advantage and now we're seeing that in a really profound way. Why is China so successful here and what we what what what can we learn from them?

嘿，比尔，这在很多方面验证了你在过去六到十二个月里一直坚持的观点。你说这种情况很可能会发生。大家都知道，你是世界上最支持开源的人之一。你告诉人们，中国人会利用开源来为自己争取优势，现在我们正以一种非常深刻的方式看到这一点。中国为什么能在这里如此成功？我们能从他们身上学到什么？

Well, I we've talked about it in the past. I won't dwell on it, but China got excited about open source about 20 years ago. It's not a new thing that's happened. And you can imagine when um most of the world accuses you of IP theft that that embracing something like Linux and all the other software open source products um seems very appealing, right? And so I think it became kind of a common way of operating within China. Um and it, you know, it's a country that hasn't prioritized uh IP protection the way we have, you know, around patents. And I I could make an argument that, you know, there's way more prosperity if ideas are shared instead of instead of protected. But um I don't know the one thing I don't know is in the in the current AI situation you know was the government promoting open source and encouraging it or did it just develop through competitive forces right

好吧，我们过去讨论过。我不会详细阐述，但中国大约在20年前就开始对开源感到兴奋了。这不是一个新鲜事。你可以想象，当世界上大多数人都指责你盗窃知识产权时，拥抱像Linux和所有其他开源软件产品这样的东西似乎非常有吸引力，对吧？所以我想这在中国内部成了一种普遍的运作方式。嗯，你知道，这是一个在知识产权保护方面没有像我们（在专利方面）那样优先考虑的国家。我可以说，如果思想被分享而不是被保护，可能会带来更多的繁荣。但我不知道，我不知道的一件事是，在当前的AI形势下，政府是在推广和鼓励开源，还是它仅仅是通过竞争力量发展起来的，对吧？

but but now you have you know a scenario where these companies you know are you know are first of all there's new ones popping up and so you know I almost feel like an idiot when when Kimi comes out and moonshot and and and this week, I guess I don't even know how to pronounce it. Zippu, you know, releases a model and I go on Pitchbook and I look it up and they've already raised $1.4 billion. So, shouldn't have been a secret, but I didn't know about it, you know. Um, and all of a sudden they're in the leader tables on Open Router and like, oh my god, you know, they're coming out of everywhere. Um, and what it shows you is just that when you have a competitive dynamic where every single player, and I think there may be seven or eight deep pocketed players with open models in China, they they all learn from each other extremely fast. And and in this case, unlike software, you can use one model to distill the other and make it better. So, it's almost like an accelerated, you know, form of that and you just get massive quick co-evolution. And I I came up with a a uh a little analogy for people. I'll try and do it quickly, but imagine you had two communities. They're both farming communities and and let's say there's 10 to 20 farms in each. And in one community, they come into the farmers market once a week and they just compete by selling their products, but then they go back. in the other community when they come into farmers market they also in addition to competing and selling they they they're forced I don't know who would force them but they're forced to share all their best practices from that week with everybody and everyone does it and everyone shares their best practices and then if you ran that exercise over two years or whatever obviously the community where the best practices are shared across all farms is going to have a higher global output for the community than the one where you've just got proprietary ideas uh driving you know the individ and and just competition without the idea sharing and that may like even me saying that may cause some people to scream that's socialism or like you know they may not understand open source or how it works or why um but but I do think you end up with a higher fitness level for a community that's behaving that way overall you may end up with a lot less chance of a breakout monopolist like we've had in many of the the sectors in in American technology.

但现在的情况是，你知道，不断有新的公司涌现出来。比如Kimi、Moonshot发布模型，本周，我不知道怎么发音，Zippu发布了一个模型。我去Pitchbook上一查，他们已经筹集了14亿美元。这本不该是秘密，但我之前确实不知道。然后他们突然登上了Open Router的排行榜，我心想：“我的天哪，他们从四面八方涌现出来。”这表明，当存在一个竞争动态时，中国所有拥有开源模型的深厚资金支持的参与者（我数了一下可能有七八家）都在以极快的速度相互学习。在这种情况下，与软件不同，你可以用一个模型来提炼另一个模型并使其变得更好。所以，这几乎是一种加速的协同进化形式，你获得了巨大的、快速的协同进化。我为人们想出了一个类比：想象你有两个社区，都是农业社区，每个社区有10到20个农场。在一个社区里，他们每周来一次农贸市场，只通过销售产品来竞争，然后就回去了。在另一个社区里，当他们来农贸市场时，除了竞争和销售，他们还被迫——我不知道是谁强迫的——分享他们这周所有的最佳实践给每个人。每个人都这样做，分享最佳实践。如果你运行这个实验两年，很明显，所有农场之间共享最佳实践的社区，其社区的全球总产出将高于那个只有专有想法驱动竞争的社区。即使我说出这些话，有些人可能也会尖叫说这是社会主义，或者他们不理解开源或它的运作方式。但我确实认为，以这种方式行事的社区，最终会达到更高的适应水平，而且你可能更不容易出现像我们在许多美国科技领域看到的那种突破性的垄断者。

政策引导与美国开源模型的追赶

Well, I mean, let's let's just assume the Chinese government is in fact encouraging this in whatever ways, right? I mean, if you look at the release of the AI action plan last week, the Trump administration, you know, had a section which which is about encouraging open-source and open weight models in the US saying that these could become standards in some businesses and academic workloads. And it's important they're built on the American AI stack. So, you know, as an aside, the Chinese quickly followed uh, you know, the the American AI plan. I think they released theirs a couple days later where they called for the establishment of a global AI cooperation organization, which I thought again is is is is interesting. So, you know, Bill, how do you feel about, you know, like we we we haven't seen that much traction in the US labs uh on open source? Obviously, Llama has been probably the market leader there, but this is for both of you. Uh, you know, handicap for me if you will, how you think this plays out. First, Sunny, maybe you start. What do you see at Grock? Do you see a lot of demand for these Chinese open-source models? And if so, what would it take for an American open- source model to catch up?

好吧，我们假设中国政府确实在以某种方式鼓励这一点，对吧？看看上周发布的AI行动计划，特朗普政府有一部分内容是鼓励美国发展开源和开放权重模型，称这些模型可能成为某些企业和学术工作负载的标准，并且重要的是它们建立在美国AI技术栈之上。所以，顺便说一句，中国很快就跟进了美国的AI计划。我认为他们在几天后发布了自己的计划，呼吁建立一个全球AI合作组织，这再次引起了我的兴趣。比尔，你对我们在美国实验室的开源进展如何看？Llama可能是那方面的市场领导者，但这个问题是给你们俩的。如果你愿意，请为我做个预判，你认为这种情况会如何发展。首先，Sunny，也许你先说。你在Grock看到了什么？你是否看到了对这些中国开源模型的大量需求？如果是，美国开源模型需要付出什么才能迎头赶上？

Yeah, one of the uh things that we should pull up is the chart of intelligence to price. And one of the things that you see with the leading open source models now, which are the Chinese, is 90% of the quality in terms of intelligence, but at a 90% price discount. And I think whenever you offer that to anybody, you're going to see people want to use that, whether it's individual developers or enterprises. And so we're seeing that

是的，我们应该拿出一张“智能度与价格”的图表来看一看。你现在看到领先的开源模型，也就是中国的模型，它们具有90%的智能质量，但价格却有90%的折扣。我认为，无论你向谁提供这样的东西，你都会看到人们愿意使用它，无论是个人开发者还是企业。所以我们看到了这种情况。

let me interrupt there real quick. So if you're looking at this chart, right, in the top right of that chart, uh you'll see a cluster of these Chinese open- source companies, right? And the vertical axes here being really intelligence, the horizontal axes from left to right being the cost per million tokens. And so you really want to be in the top right of of of that model. High intelligence, low cost. And what this model what what this uh uh chart shows is that you you know to Sunny's point you can get 90% of the intelligence right for 10 or 20% of the cost. And the result I assume Sunny is that you're seeing huge demand at Grock and in Saudi Arabia where you are right now for these Chinese open source models.

让我快速打断一下。如果你看这张图表，在图表的右上角，你会看到一堆这些中国的开源公司，对吧？这里的垂直轴代表智能度，从左到右的水平轴代表每百万Token的成本。所以你真正想处于这个模型的右上角：高智能，低成本。这个模型——这张图表显示的是，正如Sunny所说，你可以用10%或20%的成本获得90%的智能度。Sunny，我假设结果是，你在Grock以及你现在所在的沙特阿拉伯，看到了对这些中国开源模型的巨大需求。

We are. And then now just taking that forward. What do people want? They want some accountability. And that's what you'll get. That's what you sort of got out of Linux and say Red Hat, right? As as great as Linux was and Bill was touching on it, the majority of the enterprise was using, you know, a distribution which they could go and, you know, point to someone if they needed something. And so I think the world wants models that they can get from companies that they can go to. And so to answer your question, what happens? I think if we look at Q4 this year or Q1 next year, I'd be willing to say, you know, the a top three worldwide model will be a US-based open source model. And you know, we've got two big efforts happening there. We know we have the open AI open source which you know a lot of people have been working on and open AAI and even you know Sam has commented on that and its release later this summer and then we have all the efforts by meta and if you take you you combine both of those things together I don't think you end up with something that ends up further down the the list in terms of intelligence andor price.

我们是。然后把这个推向前看，人们想要什么？他们想要问责制。这就是你会得到的，就像你从Linux和Red Hat那里得到的，对吧？正如Linux很棒，比尔也提到了，但企业界大多数人都在使用一个他们可以在需要时去找人支持的发行版。所以我想全世界都想要可以从他们可以接触到的公司那里获得模型。所以为了回答你的问题，会发生什么？我认为，如果我们看今年第四季度或明年第一季度，我敢说，全球前三的模型将是一个基于美国的开源模型。我们在这里有两个大动作。我们知道有OpenAI的开源项目，很多人都在努力，还有OpenAAI，甚至Sam也评论了它将在今年夏天晚些时候发布。然后我们还有Meta所有的努力。如果你把这两件事结合起来，我不认为最终的结果会在智能度或价格方面落后太多。

I um one thing I wanted to highlight about the China situation that I think might inform the US situation. I was um I was having a conversation with this extremely young AI uh entrepreneur that I know and he he he was pouring over the the Zippu I hope I'm pronouncing that right paper and um he asked me some information. I went on Pitchbook and sent it to him who had funded it. And he he he he asked me, he says, "Why is Alibaba funding all these things when they've got their own model?" And because they're in several of the other competitive plays and it reminded me of, you know, a lot of the the the points that I've made about open source is like if you're not if you if you're not confident you're going to win on offense, you want to play defense. And so for any large tech company, commoditizing a a potential threat is is actually quite valuable. You know, you look at what Facebook did with the open compute initiative inside of their data centers. And so, you know, it may just be very well be that that Alibaba just wants to make sure there's no bite dance, you know, that equivalent in the i space. And that would be pretty rational. And the reason I think that's an interesting data point when you think about the US and you know there there are several big tech companies that seem to be not on the bleeding edge of AI. You know you got Microsoft maybe I mean they have access to open AI right now but they might lose that or whatever.

我想强调一下中国局势中可能对美国局势有启发的一点。我正在和一个我认识的非常年轻的AI企业家交谈，他正在仔细研究Zippu（我希望我发音正确）的论文。他向我询问了一些信息，我查看了Pitchbook并把资助方发给了他。他问我：“为什么阿里巴巴在资助所有这些项目，而他们自己也有模型？”因为他们在好几个其他的竞争领域都有布局。这让我想起了我对开源的许多观点：如果你对自己能赢在进攻端没有信心，你就想打防守。所以对于任何大型科技公司来说，将潜在的威胁商品化实际上是非常有价值的。你看Facebook在数据中心内部的开放计算倡议（Open Compute Initiative）做了什么。所以，阿里巴巴可能只是想确保在AI领域没有“字节跳动”（ByteDance）那样的对等竞争者。这很合乎逻辑。我认为这是一个有趣的数据点，因为在美国，有几家大科技公司似乎并不处于AI的最前沿。你看看微软，他们现在可以访问OpenAI，但他们可能会失去这种优势，或者其他情况。

You've got um Amazon, you got Apple. you know, if I'm at any of those companies, I'd be funding a open-source competitor, you know, rather than funding, you know, like Amazon with Antropic. I think you're in a much better position to encourage open source. And so, I actually think we may

你有亚马逊，你有苹果。你知道，如果我在这其中任何一家公司，我会资助一个开源的竞争对手，而不是像亚马逊资助Anthropic那样。我认为你更有能力去鼓励开源。所以，我实际上认为我们可能会……

But Bill, are there are there are there a bunch of open source startup models in the US?

但是比尔，美国有大量开源初创公司模型吗？

That's where that's where I was going next. I I think you're going to see new entrance um pop up um that that that try to co-evolve with the Chinese models. You know, is Linux American? Is Linux Chinese? Like no one thinks of it as having a a doicile, right? And so um this is just me predicting. I don't you know I I just think you're going to see just like you saw um Kimi and and Japu pop up. I wouldn't be shocked if you see other new entrance pop up that are trying to be um like sanctioned or or or you know cleaned you know use Redhead as an example Sunny version of these things because I think if you start with access to those Chinese models it wouldn't take you long to move into a near place and you wouldn't have to spend the kind of money the foundational model companies have. Um, and and then you may see a big fight around regulatory capture where they someone tries to say that's not allowed or whatnot. But I I do expect to see that. And if I'm the mistrol team, if you're not distilling on these Chinese models, I don't know what you're doing right now, but I don't have any data on that front.

我正要说到这一点。我认为你会看到新的参与者出现，他们试图与中国模型共同演化。你知道，Linux是美国的吗？Linux是中国的吗？没有人认为它有国籍，对吧？所以，这只是我的预测。我只是认为你会看到就像Kimi和Japu的出现一样。我不会惊讶地看到其他新的参与者出现，他们试图成为像红帽（Red Hat）那样的，由Sunny主导的这些东西的“官方”或“清理”版本，因为我认为如果你从访问那些中国模型开始，你不会花很长时间就能进入一个差不多的水平，而且你不需要像基础模型公司那样花费大量的金钱。然后你可能会看到一场围绕监管俘获的大战，有人试图说那是不允许的，或者其他什么。但我确实预计会看到这种情况。如果我是Mistral团队，如果你现在不在提炼这些中国模型，我真不知道你在做什么，但我没有这方面的数据。

OpenAI is rumored to be launching their open source model any day. Sunny, what would they have to do? So to your point, you predicted, go back to the intelligence and pricing chart, right? So if open AI was in the top right of that chart, i.e. if they're able to deliver something at the the intelligence of let's call it Quen, and they're also able to deliver it to market at, you know, 20% of the cost. It would seem to me that actors around the world certainly actor it would be uh you know part of the American AI action plan we'd want everybody in the world to use that model and do you believe they have a shot at out competing being the upper right you know by the end of the year and and and if so do you think that will be the outcome like these companies that are using Quen on Grock do you think they would prefer to use OpenAI so long as it was equally capable and equally price performant

OpenAI传闻随时会发布他们的开源模型。Sunny，他们需要怎么做？回到你提到的智能度和定价图表，对吧？如果OpenAI能处于该图表的右上角，即如果他们能以Quen的智能度，并且以20%的成本推向市场。我认为世界各地的参与者，当然，这会是美国AI行动计划的一部分，我们希望全世界都使用这个模型。你是否相信他们能在今年年底前超越其他模型，成为右上角的代表？如果是，你认为结果会是这样吗？比如那些在Grock上使用Quen的公司，你认为他们是否更愿意使用OpenAI，只要它能力相当且价格性能比也相当？

So two things that we see is brand and you know the US domiciled or you know someone that they can kind of point at that wins and so if that shows up it will win because if you're a company and you know at some point you have to you know get your teams to sign off on what is it that you're using what are the risks associated with it and like you know who is liable if something goes wrong and so I sort of feel like um with OpenAI's release and if you know Meta charges back or even if some of these startups emerge that you know we can point at I think we'll see a huge shift back towards those models versus versus the Chinese ones.

我们看到的两件事是品牌，以及那个总部位于美国或可以被指认为代表美国而获胜的实体。所以如果它出现了，它就会赢，因为如果你是一家公司，你总得让你的团队批准你正在使用什么，与之相关的风险是什么，以及如果出了问题谁来承担责任。所以我感觉，随着OpenAI的发布，如果Meta反击，或者即使出现一些我们可以指认的初创公司，我认为我们会看到一个巨大的转变，重新倾向于那些模型，而不是中国的模型。

Yep. And we really don't know at this point unless you guys have some inside knowledge like when when Meta makes their second push with all these hires that they've made are they are they going to remain committed to open source or even be more open? We don't we really don't know yet at this point.

是的。我们现在真的不知道，除非你们有一些内部消息，比如当Meta利用他们招聘的这些人进行第二次发力时，他们是会继续致力于开源，还是会更加开放？我们现在真的不知道。

Right. You certainly seen some of those rumors out there. Um, you know, I've seen rumors that on Twitter that they were debating whether or not they should back away from open source. Um my hunch is that that's a misread. My hunch is that they're going to stay very committed to open source, but they may complement it with a proprietary model. That would be my guess. As opposed to scrapping open-source alto together. And Brad, can I throw one thing out there? I think part of the pitch to get everyone there is that it's open because everyone that they're pulling over are coming from closed places. And so if you're really passionate about the work you're doing and you're passionate about where this is going to come and there's only there's only one company that can fund that to that scale and do it open is is those guys. So I think it's part of the pitch.

是的，你肯定看到了一些传闻。我在Twitter上看到传闻说他们在辩论是否应该放弃开源。我的直觉是这是一个误读。我的直觉是他们会继续非常致力于开源，但他们可能会用专有模型来补充它。这可能就是我的猜测，而不是完全放弃开源。布拉德，我能提一点吗？我认为吸引那些研究人员的部分原因就是它是“开放的”，因为他们吸引过来的那些人都来自封闭的环境。所以，如果你真的对你正在做的工作充满热情，并对它的未来充满热情，而只有一家公司能够以这种规模并以开放的方式资助它，那就是他们。所以我认为这是他们宣传的一部分。

Yeah. Some of some of the researchers like have a religious belief in it which was evident in the in the interview with the Deep Seek founder like it's it's oddly like higher on their Maslov you know hierarchy than the money.

是的。一些研究人员对此有一种近乎宗教般的信仰，这在对DeepSeek创始人的采访中很明显，这在他们的马斯洛需求层次中，奇怪地比金钱更靠前。

Of course they're getting the money.

当然他们也拿到了钱。

Of course it's both. This is I I think a really important point I want to come back to Sunny is that you're seeing massive demand for these Chinese open-source models today precisely because enterprises around the world can utilize them. They have 90% of the capabilities at 20% of the cost. 10 or 20% of the cost, you know. So it turns out if you deliver something really powerful and really cheap that's more important to these players than American values aligned. But if you gave them something that was super powerful and super cheap and aligned with Western values, right, that you think that would be uh the winning formula for an American OpenAI model to top the uh uh the distribution leaderboards around the world. Is that what I'm I think yeah on a place like open router you know where you can see where this is happening I see we we would see it rise to the top in a few days

当然，两者兼有。萨尼，我想回到一个非常重要的观点上：你今天看到对这些中国开源模型的大量需求，正是因为世界各地的企业都可以利用它们。它们以20%的成本拥有90%的能力。或者10%或20%的成本。所以事实证明，如果你提供的产品功能强大且价格低廉，这对这些参与者来说比“与美国价值观一致”更重要。但是，如果你给他们提供一个超级强大、超级便宜且符合西方价值观的东西，你认为那将是美国OpenAI模型在世界范围内的分销排行榜上名列前茅的制胜法宝吗？我想是的，在一个像Open Router这样的地方，你知道，你可以看到这种情况正在发生，我认为它会在几天内升至榜首。

that's music to David Sax's ears because you know clearly in the strategic plan they're worried about Chinese open- source models dominating uh globally and we're we're if you just watch the pace of releases the quality of the releases out of China the cycle time on the innovation in the open source community out of China. It's faster and better at the moment. So, and the only real big development, you know, we may see some of these new startups, Bill, Bill, we may see a reboot out of meta, but the the one that has, I think, everybody really holding their breath and hoping that we see something really capable and powerful uh is this open source model that's been promised out of open AI. Now, of course, Elon says he's committed to open source as well. Grok 4 is a great model is impressive what they uh what they put out there. Any idea uh Sunny about the open source plans out of out of uh X?

这正中大卫·萨克斯的下怀，因为很明显，在战略计划中，他们担心中国的开源模型在全球占据主导地位，而我们如果关注中国开源社区的发布速度、发布质量和创新周期，目前它是更快、更好的。所以，唯一的重大发展，我们可能会看到一些新的初创公司，比尔，我们可能会看到Meta的重启，但我认为让所有人都屏住呼吸并希望看到一个真正有能力和强大的东西是OpenAI承诺的开源模型。当然，埃隆也表示他致力于开源。Grok 4是一个很棒的模型，他们发布的东西令人印象深刻。Sunny，你对X的开源计划有什么了解吗？

Yeah. So I think like Elon's been you know pretty said it on Twitter that they'll always open source one generation back and so while they were on three you know they should have gotten to two and now they're on four. So I think the the thinking is that they will get there. You know, my my only guess would be is that um you know, right now if they were to open source two or even three, it's so far behind that um you know, what's what's the purpose in doing it? It may not even be utilized and you'll maybe end up having to deal with just, you know, a bunch of internet or Twitter FUD. Just coming back to open AI, I I will tell you it's like one of those things that really you rarely see in the enterprise. It's almost like the demand for like a, you know, like a Tesla Roadster or something or or Model Y before it came out. Everybody asked for it. It's like that's the model that everybody wants to use right now. And so, you know, we can't wait till it it comes live and and it it it you know, one it's on Grock, one it's all over the world. I think it's going to be a real big one for everyone.

是的。我认为埃隆在Twitter上说得很清楚，他们总是会开源落后一代的模型。所以当他们使用三代时，他们本应开源二代，而现在他们用的是四代。所以我想他们的想法是会做到的。我唯一的猜测是，你知道，现在如果他们开源二代甚至三代，它们已经落后太多了，那么这样做的意义是什么呢？它可能甚至不会被利用，你可能最终只会处理一些来自互联网或Twitter的“恐慌、不确定、怀疑”（FUD）。回到OpenAI，我告诉你，这就像企业中很少见到的那种情况。这就像在Model Y出来之前，每个人都在谈论特斯拉跑车或Model Y一样。每个人都想要它。就像这是现在每个人都想用的模型一样。所以，我们等不及它上线，等它在Grock上，等它在世界各地普及。我认为这对每个人来说都会是一个大事件。

AI算力军备竞赛与基础设施的爆炸性增长

While while we have you, Sunonny, um you know, there's really just been this explo explosion in the compute arms race, right? Um there was a big debate you were on the pod a year ago. We had with Bill, you know, had we topped out on compute demand, you know, were we entering an overbuild all Cisco 2000? Um and it's really been remarkable. I think now that's very clear. But just a couple tweets out of Elon and Sam Alman the last couple weeks on this compute demand has have really caught my attention. If you look at this one out of Elon talking about the X.AI AI goal is 50 million in units of H100 equivalent. And Clark Tang on my team tweeted something that broke that down. Um which showed that that reflected something like, you know, 4 million total GPUs and an energy footprint of like 11 gawatt, right? And then Sam Hoffman comes out and and and talks about their deal down in Abalene for 4.5 gawatt and the fact that they were going to come in well above the $500 billion estimate that they had promised to the government. So these compute clusters now that are being talked about being built over the next 5 years, these are massively bigger than what we were even talking about a year ago. And I think they reflect this move toward inference time re reasoning agentto agent interaction reasoning engines you know Jensen's comment on the pod last year that inference was going to 1 billionx and the consequence you know what we were going to need in terms of compute power to power all that. Um maybe just reflect you're in the middle of all this you're building out your own inference clouds around the world. Um, is this a lot of hyperbole and chest pounding or do you actually see uh the dollars going into the ground in places like Saudi Arabia and around the US?

Sunny，在我们和你在一起的时候，计算军备竞赛确实出现了爆炸式增长，对吧？一年前你参加过我们和比尔的播客，当时我们争论计算需求是否已经达到顶峰，是否进入了类似思科2000年的过度建设期。我认为现在这一点非常清楚了。但过去几周，埃隆和萨姆·奥特曼（Sam Alman）关于计算需求的几条推文确实引起了我的注意。埃隆谈到X.AI的目标是5000万个H100等效单位。我团队的Clark Tang发推文进行了分解，显示这相当于大约400万个总GPU，以及约11吉瓦的能源足迹。然后萨姆·奥特曼谈到了他们在阿布扎比达成的4.5吉瓦的协议，以及他们将远远超出向政府承诺的5000亿美元的估值。所以，现在谈论的未来5年内要建造的这些计算集群，比我们一年前讨论的规模要大得多。我认为它们反映了向推理时间、代理间交互、推理引擎的转变，就像黄仁勋（Jensen）去年在播客上评论的那样，推理将增长10亿倍，以及为所有这一切提供动力所需的计算能力。你正处于这一切之中，正在世界各地建立自己的推理云。这是否只是夸大其词，还是你真的看到了资金正在沙特阿拉伯和美国各地投入基础设施建设？

Yeah. I'm going to I'm going to just quantify it with uh with Google for a second.

是的。我将用谷歌的数据量化一下。

So, you know, in the in in in the um in the Mary Maker bond deck, you know, they have a slide there that shows Google went from 5 trillion tokens a month to 480 trillion tokens a month. And they had just put some press out that they crossed like, you know, 800 trillion. And I saw something today. They crossed a quadrillion. And I had to look that up. That's a,000 trillion. And so in a in a course of a year and a few months, they've gone from 5 trillion to a thousand trillion. So that's 200x right there. I mean, that just shows it to you. Um, without having to look at anything else.

你知道，在Mary Maker的债券文件中，有一张幻灯片显示谷歌的每月Token处理量从5万亿增加到了480万亿。他们刚刚发布新闻说已经超过了800万亿。我今天看到一个消息，他们突破了一千万亿（a quadrillion）。我不得不查了一下，那是一千个万亿。所以在一年多的时间里，他们的处理量增长了200倍。我的意思是，这直接说明了问题，而无需查看任何其他信息。

Uh, the amount every single search query on the planet today is now an inference transaction. Correct. And so um you know and you see it uh you know in anthropic uh with you know their continued fundraisers going you know through the roof uh that's happening because they're they're seeing the amount of token consumption. And so anywhere we lay infrastructure um we fire up a rack it becomes fully consumed within a few hours.

这个星球上每一条搜索查询现在都变成了一次推理交易。没错。所以你看Anthropic的持续融资额度飙升，发生这种情况是因为他们看到了Token消耗量。所以我们在任何地方铺设基础设施，我们启动一个机架，它会在几个小时内被完全消耗掉。

You're talking Grock.

你说的是Grock。

So you have demand far outstripping supply even at Grock. Yep, we do.

所以即使在Grock，需求也远远超过了供应。是的，确实如此。

天价估值与风险资本的狂热

So, Bill, you see these fundraising announcements that are being discussed. Just CNBC's reporting tonight. I think that Iconic is going to lead a $5 billion round into Anthropic at 170 billion. In the case of Anthropic, it's, you know, uh 170 billion on rumored $5 billion in revenue. X has been rumored to be raising at 150 to$200 billion. So, you know, you've never in the history of venture, you've never seen fundraisers like this. One of the topics that is being hotly debated on on the Twitter, uh, is that there's massive intervening dilution in these rounds, Bill, because of the employee option grants or the employee RSUs that are needing to be granted to keep the employees uh, you know, uh, in these businesses. So just observing this a little bit from afar. I don't think you guys you're a direct investor in in any of these uh major labs. What what do you see? What do you observe? What are your warning signs uh you know about the size and and the demand that you see in these rounds?

比尔，你看到了这些正在讨论的融资公告。今晚CNBC刚报道，Iconic将牵头向Anthropic进行50亿美元的注资，估值达到1700亿美元。以Anthropic为例，它是1700亿美元的估值，据传收入为50亿美元。X据传正在以1500亿至2000亿美元的估值融资。所以，你知道，在风险投资史上，你从未见过这样的融资。Twitter上一个热门的讨论话题是，由于需要授予员工期权或RSU来留住人才，这些轮次中存在大量的中间稀释，比尔。所以，我只是从远处观察了一下。我不认为你们是这些主要实验室的直接投资者。你看到了什么？你观察到了什么？关于这些轮次的规模和需求，你有什么预警信号吗？

Well, I yeah, I've never seen anything like it. I mean, I saw you know, through the Uber andyft situation, I saw a precursor to this, but this these these dollars are even bigger. and the amount of money that these companies are willing to lose in a year. You know, it's I still think it's particularly interesting that Google has to compete with Open AI because OpenAI is going to lose 7 billion this year and Google won't like like they would never allow themselves to do that. And and this started back in that previous era where where for the first time ever you saw private companies have a competitive advantage and that they can be more risk-seeking with capital than the public companies are allowed to be.

是的，我从未见过这样的情况。我的意思是，通过Uber和Lyft的情况，我看到了先兆，但这些资金规模更大。而且这些公司一年愿意亏损的金额……你知道，我仍然觉得谷歌必须与OpenAI竞争这一点特别有趣，因为OpenAI今年将亏损70亿美元，而谷歌绝不会允许自己这样做。这始于上一个时代，那时你第一次看到私营公司拥有竞争优势，并且它们在资本方面可以比受限制的上市公司更具风险偏好。

but I think in the past 12 months we I we've seen um OpenAI Meta and certainly X you know move into this place. I call them I call them the cost is no object the CNO group um where they're just they're just putting out press release after press release and opening data center after data center and you know we there there are other people I think you know you look at Microsoft you know choosing not to extend their capex budget you look at that Amazon example when we spoke to the the Levant brothers at codeu where they're they're not keeping up with the the Nvidia purchases relative to their AWS share. And so there are a few companies that are back on their feet and there's a few companies that are really pushing the gas pedal. And I can't there's a few in the middle I can't tell um whether Anthropic has the uh audacity and the means to raise enough money to to start building data centers themselves. They haven't so far. Um but it's uh you know it's a sport of kings, you know. It's it is a sport of kings like there is um never been this amount of money spent right now. Nvidia and others building in the stack like like uh Dell that we we spoke to a few weeks ago like they're the winners um in a pick and shovel game that's got this amount of aggressiveness. It's uh and maybe maybe SK Hynix too. I don't know.

但在过去12个月里，我们看到了OpenAI、Meta，当然还有X进入了这个领域。我称之为“不计成本”的CNO（Cost Is No Object）集团，他们只是发布一篇又一篇的新闻稿，开设一个又一个的数据中心。我认为还有其他人，你看微软选择不延长其资本支出预算，你看我们在CodeU上与Levant兄弟交谈时提到的亚马逊的例子，他们与AWS的市场份额相比，没有跟上英伟达的采购步伐。所以有几家公司已经站稳了脚跟，有几家公司正在猛踩油门。我无法判断Anthropic是否有胆量和能力筹集足够的资金来开始自己建造数据中心。到目前为止还没有。但这……你知道，这是“王者运动”，从来没有过这么多的资金投入。英伟达和其他在技术栈中建设的公司，比如我们几周前谈到的戴尔，他们是在这场如此激进的“卖铲人”游戏中获胜者，也许SK海力士也是。我不知道。

Sunny, Sunny, do you see um you know going back to the well-worn cliche that every glut or that every shortage ultimately ends in a glut? Um do you have any evidence on the horizon where you see uh uh supply outstripping demand?

Sunny，你是否认为，回到那个老套的话题，即每一次短缺最终都会以供应过剩告终？你是否在视野中看到了任何供应超过需求的迹象？

No. I mean I I was going to ask this to Bill as he was just saying it. Bill, like on a daily basis, are you consuming more tokens or are you consuming more, you know, just traditional um you know, web lookups, right? And I'd be willing to guess you're consuming more tokens.

没有。我的意思是，当比尔刚才说的时候，我正想问他这个问题。比尔，在日常生活中，你消耗的Token更多，还是消耗的传统网络查询更多？我敢猜测你消耗的Token更多。

Oh, it's insane.

哦，这太疯狂了。

And and and tokens are are increasing like when you're using those reasoning models, you don't see all the tokens, right? They don't publish it, but there's Right. This is where totally Yeah. 10 to 100x more than the your very first AI search. Yeah, for sure. Absolutely. The one thing the one thing I will So you're right. I I'm doing

而且Token数量在增加，比如当你使用那些推理模型时，你看不到所有的Token，对吧？他们不会公布，但……是的。这是你最初的AI搜索量的10到100倍。是的，当然。我唯一……所以你说得对。我正在……

Go ahead. You finish.

你继续。你讲完。

No, no, no, no, no. And I just wanted to say even yesterday, Anthropic had to put this uh you know, press release plus, you know, product change out saying, "Hey, we've got to throttle everybody, right?" And this is like cuz we have all these people using way too much of our our services. So I think you know if you have intelligent models right and you have the capacity for it it's one of those things people are consuming Jven's paradox or whatever. Yeah. Sorry. Go ahead, Bill.

不，不，不，不，不。我只是想说，就在昨天，Anthropic不得不发布这个新闻稿，以及产品变更，说：“嘿，我们必须限制所有人，对吧？”这是因为有这么多人过度使用了我们的服务。所以我想，如果你拥有智能模型并有能力使用它，这就是人们正在消费的东西，就像杰文斯悖论（Jevons Paradox）一样。抱歉，比尔，你继续。

No, I was just going to offer one caveat to to this uh super uh exciting line of of thought, which is because of the amount of venture capital out there. Um companies are not pricing the cost like no one no one none of the model companies I don't think anyone even in the verticals like no one's pricing the cost because they're pricing to take market share. And you know, you and I, Sunny, we had a previous discussion about the unlimited pricing and inference has variable costs. So, is that even sustainable, right? And and even when people say to me, "Oh, well, we're going to run out of power." You wouldn't run out of power if you just took the price up. Like, like the thing that throttles demand is price, but no one here is raising price. Like Anthropic doesn't need to throttle. They just raise price, but they're not willing to do that because they're afraid to lose share. And so everyone's pricing to share. That means they're pricing under cost. There's rumors of even some of the best known brands in AI having negative gross margin. And so I don't know when that settles out, but that there that will create a bump in the supply demand curve if that ever has to be, you know, fixed. Um but for now it doesn't

不，我只是想为这个非常令人兴奋的思路提供一个警告：正是因为有如此多的风险投资，公司们定价时没有考虑成本。我认为没有一家模型公司，甚至垂直领域的公司，在定价时考虑成本，因为它们的目标是抢占市场份额。你知道，Sunny，你我之前讨论过无限定价的问题，而推理是有可变成本的。所以，这甚至可持续吗？即使有人对我说：“哦，我们会用完电力的。”如果你提高价格，你就不会用完电力。限制需求的东西是价格，但这里没有人提价。比如Anthropic不需要限制，他们只需提价，但他们不愿意这样做，因为他们害怕失去市场份额。所以每个人都在为份额定价，这意味着他们的定价低于成本。有传言称，即使是一些最知名的AI品牌也存在负的毛利率。我不知道这种情况何时会稳定下来，但如果必须“修复”这一点，它将在供需曲线上造成一个波动。但目前来看，它不会……

because because

因为，因为……

Can I ask a question there?

我能问个问题吗？

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah. No, no. which is going back to the point that we made on open source, but if you know in the back of your mind that there's something that's 90% as good, but it's 90% cheaper. How does that factor in because we've also never had that that factor as we're going through this growth curve. I mean since almost since we started the pod you know I've I've routinely highlighted that the steepness of that price curve on you know as you as it kind of becomes you know less less cutting edge is something I've never seen before. I've never ever seen it. And I'm sure that a lot of um people sit around and say, well, it's okay if I'm losing money here because, you know, six months from now, I'll just use the older model. And we also talked in the past about how in the internet age all the startups began with Oracle and Sun and eventually they all moved to Linux and MySQL. And so there was a there was a we got to win at all cost phase and then there was a phase where you started worrying about cost and optimization. And so one day, one day we'll likely, you know, make that make that move. And and and I a few of the companies I've talked to that are running inference at scale, they are already starting to think that way. Like they're looking right they're looking at it, you know, from that from that lens. But I but

是的。我们回到开源的观点，如果你心里知道有性能相似但便宜90%的东西，这会如何影响？因为在我们经历这个增长曲线时，我们以前也从未考虑过这个因素。自从我们开始做这个播客以来，我经常强调，随着技术不再那么前沿，其价格曲线的陡峭程度是我以前从未见过的。我敢肯定，很多人会想：“没关系，我在这里亏钱也没关系，因为六个月后我就可以使用旧模型了。”我们过去也讨论过，在互联网时代，所有初创公司最初都使用Oracle和Sun，最终都转向了Linux和MySQL。所以，经历了一个“不惜一切代价取胜”的阶段，然后进入了一个开始关注成本和优化的阶段。所以总有一天，我们可能会做出这种转变。我与之交谈过的一些正在大规模运行推理的公司，他们已经开始从这个角度思考问题了。但是……

well and and I think that's why Grock and Cerebras are doing so well. But Sunny, give us give give us an, you know, an an example. I would imagine that the wind surfs of the world and the cursors of the world and all these folks who are building these you know these coding agents they've got massive you know demand for their applications right but they're paying through the nose to anthropic or to these underlying proprietary model providers to be able to do that so what's the dynamic that you see there do you see them running to implement Quinn or some of these cheaper models

好吧，我想这就是为什么Grock和Cerebras做得这么好的原因。但Sunny，给我举个例子。我想，像Windsurfs和Cursor这类构建编码代理的公司，他们的应用需求量很大，但他们要向Anthropic或这些底层专有模型提供商支付高昂的费用才能做到这一点。你看到了什么样的动态？他们会争相实施Quen或这些更便宜的模型吗？

yeah without kind of getting into specific any one of them, but like you know multiple folks are building their own models uh based off open source and

是的，在不针对任何特定公司的情况下，很多公司都在基于开源构建自己的模型。

right so they could just go distill any one of these models.

对，所以他们可以去提炼这些模型中的任何一个。

Correct.

正确。

Right. And you know given that they're these very uh lenient Apache licenses and eliminate the entire cost of sonnet that sits under it for 70% of use cases.

对。考虑到它们是非常宽松的Apache许可证，并且可以消除Sonnet模型在70%的使用场景下产生的全部成本。

Yeah. And and like Bill said, turn that into a premium offering, right? and say that's the you know the gold and you know the silver and the bronze are built off uh you know something that's like I said oneten the price

是的。就像比尔说的，把它变成一个高级产品，对吧？然后说那是“金牌”服务，而“银牌”和“铜牌”是基于成本只有十分之一的东西构建的。

that seems to me Bill you know if if I had to forecast you know if I'm open AI I'm running a consumer business with really high gross margins right because consumers are uh uh less sensitive to what they're paying their their their their intensity of use is lower. Whereas when if if somebody's writing code, you know, there's the variable intensity is high. And so, you know, for them, it would make sense to launch an open source model back to where we started the pod and price it really low to, you know, drive share knowing, you know, it reminds me a little bit of Amazon back in the day. Amazon had this monopoly retail business they could use to subsidize AWS gain share for a decade and then begin to take price. That would be a rational strategy for open AI to follow. So you take the profitable consumer business you use it to subsidize you know the the the market share in other applications that you hope to build.

在我看来，比尔，如果我必须预测，如果我是OpenAI，我经营着一个具有高毛利率的消费者业务，因为消费者对他们支付的价格不太敏感，他们的使用强度较低。然而，如果有人在写代码，变动的使用强度就很高。所以，对他们来说，发布一个开源模型（回到我们开始播客的地方）并以极低的价格定价，以获取市场份额，是有意义的，你知道，这让我想起了早期的亚马逊。亚马逊拥有垄断的零售业务，他们可以利用它来补贴AWS，获取市场份额长达十年，然后再开始提价。这对OpenAI来说是一个合理的策略。所以，你利用盈利的消费者业务来补贴你在其他应用中希望建立的市场份额。

Certainly a reasonable strategy. I I I I I'm not inside that company. you have way more knowledge than I do, but um you know, I pay the $200 a month and I do every one of my searches on four or five and I'm probably I'm probably negative, I would think. Yeah.

这当然是一个合理的策略。我不是那家公司内部的人，你比我了解得多，但是……你知道，我每月支付200美元，我的每一次搜索都在四或五个模型上进行，我想我可能是亏本的。

And so I do think there'll be some rationalization where these models um kind of self-pick which one they're running based on what you need. I probably don't need to be using

所以，我认为会有一些理性化，即这些模型会根据你的需求“自我选择”使用哪一个。我可能不需要一直使用……

and move to more of a consumption logic. Yeah,

转向更多的按使用量计费的逻辑。

move more to more of a consumption logic. they're already uh they're already doing that in in parts of their enterprise business. Um and and you know, as they've transitioned to more of this consumption logic, I think it's led to some real unlocks. Uh you you know, for the business. I think it that makes it harder if you're in the the lab game and you don't have a consumer product and you don't own an application that you can drive high gross margins. I think then gets back to this question, how long can you run the your business for share, right? Hoping that someday because you know they all exist at the beneficence of the capital markets and the capital markets are willing to provide an incredible amount of capital to these businesses today. They sure are.

转向更多的按使用量计费的逻辑。他们在企业业务的部分已经开始这样做了。你知道，随着他们转向更多的按使用量计费的逻辑，我认为这为企业带来了一些真正的突破。我认为，如果你从事的是实验室领域，没有面向消费者的产品，也没有拥有可以带来高毛利率的应用，那么情况就变得更困难了。这又回到了这个问题：你还能为了市场份额而经营你的业务多久？因为你知道，它们的存在都依赖于资本市场的恩惠，而资本市场今天愿意为这些企业提供巨额资金。确实如此。

Um but but but you and I have we've lived through these periods where that disappears quickly. And can I can I put something there just to kind of hear your feedback on it guys which is look at Google and the TPU and Google is clearly you know by these numbers that we're seeing right putting out more tokens than anyone else right do they do you guys believe they have a strategic advantage because they have their own hardware they're not having to pay you know 80% margin on something that they can generate tokens with like how do you guys look at that business and say clearly they look to be sort of the largest at least openly saying um the largest processor of tokens. I think look the key data point in that case which I don't have the data but I'd be glad to repeat it if someone shared it with us is how many non-G Google uh applications are running on the TPUs like how many third party customers are using because I what I've heard or what the you know the general perception is is that that most of their proprietary TPU transactions are their own applications.

但是你我都经历过资本市场迅速枯竭的时期。我能提一点来听听你们的反馈吗？看看谷歌和TPU，根据我们看到的数据，谷歌显然比任何人都处理更多的Token，对吧？你们认为他们拥有战略优势吗，因为他们拥有自己的硬件，不必为他们可以生成Token的东西支付80%的利润率？你们如何看待这项业务？他们显然是最大的，至少是公开表示的，是最大的Token处理器。我认为这里的关键数据点——我没有这些数据，但如果有人与我分享，我很乐意复述——是有多少非谷歌应用程序运行在TPU上？有多少第三方客户在使用？因为我听到的或普遍的看法是，他们的大部分专有TPU交易都是他们自己的应用程序。

Yep. But that's probably where most of their tokens are being processed anyways at this point, Bill, right? Like transcribing YouTube videos and you know all in Google Meet you can turn it on and all the searches.

是的。但比尔，到目前为止，他们的大部分Token很可能也是在这些应用中处理的，比如转录YouTube视频，以及在Google Meet中开启的所有功能和所有搜索。

I I was just inferring in your question, maybe I shouldn't have been that that they'll have an advantage for Google Cloud. And in in order for that to be true, they need to to have this crossover moment. One quick thing, Brad, on on Open AI, you know, I'm I've I've been writing a book, which I've talked about frequently, and I've been quite uh although I guess there's some privacy things now you need to be worried about, but I've been quite open with Open AI about the book and doing research, you know, along the way. it knows a tremendous amount about my book right now and I can ask follow-up questions without having to put the whole book back in the prompt again um because of that. And so I can I would I continue to believe that OpenAI's um most likely chance to long-term um success comes from switching cost and lock in more than it will come from staying on the edge of the of the model race because I think

我在你的问题中推断，也许我不该这么说，他们将为Google Cloud带来优势。为了实现这一点，他们需要实现这个交叉点。布拉德，关于OpenAI，我一直在写一本书，我经常提到这一点，而且我相当……虽然我想现在有一些隐私问题需要担心，但我一直对OpenAI开放我的书的写作和研究过程。它现在对我的书了解很多，我可以问后续问题，而无需再次将整本书放回提示中，就是因为这个原因。所以我可以——我仍然相信OpenAI长期成功的最大机会来自于转换成本和锁定，而不是来自于保持在模型竞赛的最前沿，因为我认为……

and the pricing and the pricing power that comes with that brand dominance, right? No doubt.

以及随之而来的定价权和品牌主导地位，对吧？毫无疑问。

Because the the fact of the matter is you said you're paying 200 bucks, you're getting more than $200 in value. I don't know what the price is, but I know that if it was variable, you would pay a hell of a lot more money to use that service.

因为事实是，你说你支付了200美元，你获得了超过200美元的价值。我不知道价格是多少，但我知道如果它是可变的，你会愿意支付更多的钱来使用这项服务。

I would I would but but but the the lock in once of these systems starts to truly understand you and have all your historic knowledge um I think the switching cost will be very high at that moment in time.

我会，但一旦这些系统开始真正了解你并掌握你所有的历史知识，我认为在那一刻，转换成本将非常高。

Sunonny, back to your question about the TPU and the advantage of that vertical integration um you know to to Google. I think it's it's it's too early to know. What I would tell you is that uh they've absolutely made some changes I think over the course of the last you know 3 to four months to accelerate the business. You you've seen the news about OpenAI uh leveraging TPUs for some of the inference uh you know uh demand that that they have. Um ultimately what I've said all along about Google is there many ways the best position company in the world but a lot of their advantage right is no longer much of an advantage right and namely that you know they were the dominant place where the consumer started every single query and we know today that's just not true in you know when people are looking for answers Bill's book is not in Google bill's book is in you know chat GBT and that's the

Sunny，回到你关于TPU和这种垂直整合对谷歌优势的问题。我认为现在还为时过早。我想告诉你的是，在过去三到四个月里，他们绝对做了一些改变来加速业务发展。你看到了OpenAI利用TPU来满足其部分推理需求的报道。我一直以来对谷歌的看法是，他们是世界上位置最好的公司，但他们的很多优势已经不再是优势了，那就是他们曾经是消费者发起每一条搜索查询的主导平台，但我们今天知道，当人们寻找答案时，情况已经不是那样了。比尔的书不在谷歌里，比尔的书在ChatGPT里。

actually it's in Google doc but but you're right you're right. The knowledge of it, the knowledge of it,

实际上它在Google文档里，但你说得对，你说得对。关于它的知识，关于它的知识……

the knowledge of it and the interaction and the the token generation. So my only point is this, the battle for the consumer is ultimately where the value occurs, Sunny, not who runs, you know, what hardware. And so Google's dominance, the it's been the greatest b business in the history of capitalism for 20 years because they owned the consumer. They owned the verb in something that was extraordinarily high margin. And all I would say is the first real threat in 20 years came about because in the chat GBT moment it's continued to accelerate. I think chat GBT will cross a billion weeklys like maybe this year. Um you know probably this year I would guess. Um, and so that to me has always been the case, right, for open AI. And when you look at the rest of these frontier labs, the case you've made throughout this pod, about seven of these models in in in in China, being able to open source, distill off one another, drive up intelligence, drive down cost. What that tells me is the model layer is being increasingly commoditized and that there's not going to be a lot of intrinsic value in in in that intelligence layer, that operating layer. You're going to have to build applications that guys like Bill Gurley and and you and I are using every day. And that's where the battle is on the consumer side. You're going to have the exact same battle when it comes to coding agents and general enterprise applications. And I've said there, I think it's going to be more of a uh uh you know, heterogeneous world. I think they're going to be lots of players that compete. I think the margins will be lower. Yeah.

关于它的知识、交互和Token生成。所以我唯一想说的是，价值最终体现在争夺消费者，而不是谁在运行什么硬件。谷歌的统治地位是过去20年来资本主义史上最伟大的生意，因为它拥有了消费者。它拥有了在极高利润的事情上发号施令的权力。我只想说的是，20年来第一次真正的威胁出现，是因为在ChatGPT的时刻，这种趋势仍在加速。我认为ChatGPT可能在今年就能达到每周十亿的日活用户。对我来说，这始终是OpenAI的情况。当你审视其他前沿实验室时，你在这期播客中一直强调的观点，中国大约有七个模型能够开源、相互提炼、提高智能度、降低成本。这告诉我，模型层正在被日益商品化，在这个智能层、这个操作层中不会有太多的内在价值。你将不得不构建像比尔·格利（Bill Gurley）、你和我每天都在使用的应用程序。消费者端的战斗就在那里。在编码代理和通用企业应用方面，你也会面临同样的战斗。我曾说过，我认为那将是一个更加“异构化”的世界。我认为会有很多竞争者。我认为利润率会更低。是的。

Uh in that world, but it may very well be that the tide is going up so much here, right? The whole world is transforming so much around this that you're still going to have lots of players who do incredibly well. I have to say I'm surprised if you would have told any of us a year ago or 18 months ago, right, that the combined enterprise value of Open AI and Anthropic together would be over half a trillion dollars. And you throw X.AI in there, it' be a trillion dollars, you know, across the the three of them roughly. um it's bigger and faster and the compute demand is higher than any of us I think anticipated. Sunny, hopefully we can keep you on here for a bit. We're just going to wrap up with a um you know a topic that I think has dominated really the conversation in the markets over the course of last year and that's been about tariffs and kind of the reordering of global trade. Bill, you I know you had some some questions, some thoughts about it and I'm I'm happy to dig in and talk about it as well. Well, I mean, I would I would really just love to hear from you, Brad. the the the markets got very nervous when the um what was it liberation day when when the kind of unpredictability of how big some of the numbers were and what that might mean and whether we were walking away from the notion of comparative advantage and and I think the markets got spooked and you know I think you turn around and look at where the markets are today and and we've really gone through an evolution of how the Wall Street is interpreting the both the initial um launch of the tariffs and the reality of where they're landing. So, how would you how would you describe that? And and why do you think the markets are getting um very comfortable with the where where they're landing? I mean, not only comfortable, we're at all-time highs,

在这个世界里，但很可能因为这里的浪潮如此之大，整个世界都在围绕它发生巨大的变革，你仍然会有很多参与者取得惊人的成功。我必须说，如果一年前或18个月前有人告诉我们，OpenAI和Anthropic的总企业价值将超过5000亿美元，你会感到惊讶。再把X.AI算进去，三家公司的总价值将接近一万亿美元。它的规模更大、速度更快，计算需求也比我们任何人都预期的要高。Sunny，希望我们能让你多留一会儿。我们即将结束一个我认为主导了去年市场对话的话题，那就是关税和全球贸易的重组。比尔，我知道你有一些问题和想法，我也很乐意深入讨论。我的意思是，布拉德，我真的很想听听你的看法。市场在“解放日”时变得非常紧张，因为一些数字的规模以及这可能意味着什么，以及我们是否正在放弃比较优势的理念，市场感到恐慌。我认为，看看今天的市场，华尔街对关税的初步实施及其最终落地的解读已经发生了一次演变。那么，你会如何描述这种变化？为什么你认为市场对它们的落地感到越来越放心？甚至可以说，我们正处于历史高位。

you know, and and April 2nd, I was uh going, you know, on CNBC saying the nuclear Navaro was going to be a disaster and I'm out, right? And that's this the the the the amazing thing about this administration is there's really uh you know it's a team of rivals within the White House and you had Besset and Lutnik who were basically outlining this plan for you know let's call it 10 to 15 to 20% tariffs across the board that would amount to about 300 billion in total tariffs up from 75 billion uh in 2024. But you had Navaro who was basically saying we're going to replace the Internal Revenue Service. We're going to get rid of the income tax and we're going to have two trillion of tariffs. Okay? And I was very clear and I think the market was very clear. We all voted with our wallets and we said until the president tells us whether it's door one or door two, we're out.

你知道，4月2日，我在CNBC上说，带有“核弹级”关税的纳瓦罗政策将会是一场灾难，所以我要离场。这个政府的奇妙之处在于白宫内部确实有一个“政敌团队”，你有贝塞特（Besset）和卢特尼克（Lutnik）基本上概述了这个计划，就是全面征收10%到20%的关税，总关税额将从2024年的750亿美元增加到约3000亿美元。但纳瓦罗基本上说，我们要取代国税局，我们要取消所得税，我们要征收2万亿美元的关税。好吧？我非常清楚，我认为市场也非常清楚。我们都用钱包投票了，我们说在总统告诉我们是“一号门”还是“二号门”之前，我们离场。

The market shot first and asked questions later. And that's where you saw that huge draw down in the market. The NASDAQ was down 21% right at its trough this year. Now the NASDAQ's up over 10. It's a 30% move in about 60 or 70 days, which is extraordinary even by the historical patterns that we've seen over the course of the last 5 years. But let me back up here for a second.

市场先开枪，后问问题。这就是你在市场上看到巨大回调的原因。纳斯达克今年在低点时下跌了21%。现在纳斯达克上涨了超过10%，在短短60或70天内上涨了30%，即使以我们过去5年看到的历史模式来看，这也是非同寻常的。但让我先退后一步。

I think the consensus view of all economists, right, 90% of economists is that tariffs are going to be bad. They're going to be a tax that gets paid by the US consumer. There was a small group led by you know Scott Bessant and Kevin Hassid at the National Economic Council that said no it's actually going to be different this time and the reason it's going to be different this time is their theory uh argued was that the world had become dependent upon exporting to the United States so that the total trade deficit to the United States of goods and services was about 915 billion last last year a $1.2 2 trillion goods deficit and that basically meant that China was selling a lot more to the United States than than they were buying of US goods and and so what Bessant and Hasset postulated was that these countries have no choice if we impose a tariff on them so long as it's not draconian 70% 80% what Navaro was talking about if we impose a 15% tariff on them they have to eat it the producers have to eat it because otherwise they're going end up laying off millions of people in Vietnam, in China, in these countries. And politically, they can't afford to lay these folks off. So that was their theory of the case. The consensus economist said, "No way is that true. You're going to see massive inflation."

我认为所有经济学家的共识观点，对吧，90%的经济学家都认为关税将是坏事。它们将成为由美国消费者支付的税款。有一个由斯科特·贝桑特（Scott Bessant）和凯文·哈西德（Kevin Hassid）领导的小团体在国家经济委员会，他们说不，这次情况会不同。他们理论上认为，这次情况不同的原因是世界已经变得依赖向美国出口，所以去年美国商品和服务的总贸易逆差约为9150亿美元，商品逆差为1.2万亿美元。这基本上意味着中国向美国销售的商品远多于他们购买的美国商品。因此，贝桑特和哈西德推测的是，如果我们对这些国家征收关税——只要不是像纳瓦罗所说的70%、80%那样严苛的——如果我们对他们征收15%的关税，他们就必须承担，生产商必须承担，因为否则他们将在越南、中国、这些国家解雇数百万人。而在政治上，他们负担不起解雇这些人的后果。这就是他们的理论基础。共识经济学家说：“这绝对不可能。你们将看到大规模的通货膨胀。”

But what have you seen? You have not seen the in the the inflation percolate through. I will caveat this by saying yet.

但你看到了什么？你没有看到通货膨胀渗透进来。我要加上一句“到目前为止”。

Okay. So here we are in July. The e the consensus economist said it would have already happened and the national economic council was out with a paper last week that deconstructed core PCE. So that's the uh uh uh what the the best proxy the Fed watches for inflation since the start of the year. And it showed this was really interesting. Import prices have been going up at a slower rate than domestically produced goods. Okay, so this is the exact opposite of what you would have expected from tariffs. Of course, you would have expected the imported prices would have been going up more than domestic uh goods. And so we'll show these charts um and we'll we'll put the link to this paper. People ought to take a look at that. But to me, um, when I look at the president's, uh, the deals he's landing, the deal he just got announced yesterday with the European Union, 15% on all goods coming from Europe, 0% on US goods going to Europe. So, an opening up of Europe markets, paying us 15% and on top of that getting commitments like $750 billion, almost a trillion dollars of energy purchases from the US. Or look at Japan, which they announced last week. Another huge market. Again, similar. They're going to pay tariffs to the United States. No tariffs imposed on the United States. And they're going to invest $550 billion dollars into the US in a way the president gets to direct. So, I would I would I just think we need to give the president credit where credit is due. Everybody said this was going to lead to retaliation, to trade wars, was going to be disastrous for the US. And all we've seen so far is deals, deals, deals, deals. And I have to say, if this was the CEO of one of our companies, right? Let's say we had a board meeting at the start of the year and he outlined these plans and we said, "Hey, we're really nervous about this. You know, this is a high-risk, high-reward strategy. it's either going to backfire and we're going to fire you or it's going to work really well and we give you a bonus." If we're measuring them halfway through the year, I would say that he's in line for a bonus based upon the trillions of dollars that are going to be coming into the United States and the fact that we now have a 300 to a $350 billion recurring, you know, stream of revenues into Treasury in the form of these tariffs which are being paid. and and and I think Bessant said last week in the month of June we had our first surplus in the United States monthly surplus since 2015 right because of the tariff revenues that are coming in. So I will say this I was on the fence I knew the nuclear tariffs the trillion or two trillion I knew that was a disaster. I said if we landed the plane where Bessant wanted to come in at 300 billion, I thought there was a decent chance that those prices could be passed on in the home countries and so far it looks like that's the case.

好吧，现在是七月了。共识经济学家说通胀本应已经发生了。国家经济委员会上周发布了一份报告，分析了核心PCE（个人消费支出平减指数），这是美联储自年初以来追踪通胀的最佳指标。报告显示，一个非常有趣的情况是：进口价格的上涨速度慢于国内生产的商品。这与我们对关税的预期完全相反。当然，我们本应预期进口价格的上涨幅度会超过国内商品。我们将展示这些图表，并附上这份报告的链接，人们应该看一下。但对我来说，当我看到总统达成的这些协议，他昨天与欧盟达成的协议：所有来自欧洲的商品征收15%的关税，美国出口到欧洲的商品为0%。这相当于欧洲市场向我们开放，对我们支付15%的关税，除此之外，还获得了价值约7500亿美元、近万亿美元的美国能源采购承诺。再看看日本上周宣布的，又是一个巨大的市场。同样的情况，他们将向美国支付关税，而美国不对他们征收关税，他们将以总统可以指导的方式对美国投资5500亿美元。所以，我认为我们需要将功劳归于总统。所有人都说这将导致报复、贸易战，对美国来说是灾难性的。但到目前为止，我们所看到的只是协议、协议、协议、协议。我必须说，如果这是我们公司的一位首席执行官……假设我们在年初召开董事会，他概述了这些计划，而我们说：“嘿，我们对此非常紧张。你知道，这是一项高风险、高回报的战略。它要么会适得其反，我们要解雇你；要么会非常成功，我们会给你奖金。”如果我们在年中评估他，我会说他正等着拿奖金，因为将有数万亿美元流入美国，而且我们现在每月通过这些正在支付的关税，为国库带来了3000亿到3500亿美元的经常性收入。我认为贝桑特上周说，在六月份，我们实现了自2015年以来美国月度经常项目盈余，这得益于到账的关税收入。所以我想说，我之前摇摆不定，我知道核弹级别的关税，一万亿或两万亿，我知道那是一场灾难。我说，如果我们的结果能达到贝桑特希望的3000亿美元，我认为这些价格有相当大的可能性被转嫁到出口国，到目前为止看起来确实是这样。

对通胀和重置全球贸易的担忧

Do you have any concerns? What's the uh anything you're watching out for?

你有什么担忧吗？你在关注什么吗？

Well, I think the the number one thing is core PCE h did bottom last year and it started to tick up and so we have to keep our eye on inflation. And of course, I think it's almost impossible to conceive that we would have totally reordered the entire global trading system on the first pass with zero mistakes. So, we're going to have some some goods and some products that, you know, consumers are US consumers are going to end up paying the taxes and we're going to have to go back and fix some of these things. But, I will say that it's turning out massively better than consensus criticisms. I mean, remember Larry Summers at the CO2 event.

我认为最重要的一点是，核心PCE去年已经触底，并开始回升，所以我们必须关注通货膨胀。当然，我认为我们不可能在第一次尝试中就彻底重塑整个全球贸易体系而没有任何错误。所以，我们会遇到一些商品和产品，你知道，美国消费者最终会支付税款，我们不得不回去修正其中一些问题。但是，我要说的是，结果比共识批评者预期的要好得多。我是说，还记得拉里·萨默斯（Larry Summers）在CO2活动上的讲话吗？

I mean, this was just a few months ago and he was saying this is the biggest economic disaster of of his career. And I I don't think you can describe it that way. The markets are the voting machine is telling you and these are a lot of sophisticated investors. The voting machine is telling you that no retaliations, no trade wars, all these deals getting done um uh works for the US economy. And I will tell you that the Atlanta now Fed tracker which tracks real-time GDP has now ticked up back to 3%. So after going down a lot in April, it's bounced way back up. So economic activity uh appears to be going up. And then one final thing here, remember one of the key reasons for doing this, right? Wasn't just because we were, you know, there was I mean the EU conceded in the trade negotiations that they that our relationship was unfairly balanced in the direction of the EU. I mean they said that's the starting point. So we have to rebalance it. But on top of that, a key reason for doing this was to support the domestic production of critical national industries and to make our supply chains more resilient chips, data centers, energy production. At Altimeter, we just led the series A in a company, I don't even know if we've announced it, but I'll announce it here, which is an all-American producer of rare earth magnets. Right? So these are now viable investments because of the tariffs and the resolve of the government to re-shore these critical supply chains. So I mean that's a huge benefit that you would be willing to pay something for but we're getting the benefit and on top of that we're getting paid.

这只是几个月前的事，他说这是他职业生涯中最大的经济灾难。我不认为可以用这种方式来形容它。市场，投票机告诉我们，而且他们都是很多成熟的投资者。投票机告诉我们，没有报复，没有贸易战，所有这些交易的达成，对美国经济是有利的。我告诉你，跟踪实时GDP的亚特兰大联储追踪器现在已经回升到3%。所以在四月份大幅下降后，它又大幅反弹了。所以经济活动似乎正在上升。最后一点，还记得做这件事的关键原因之一，对吧？不仅仅是因为……我是说，欧盟在贸易谈判中承认，我们的关系对欧盟来说是不公平的。我是说他们说这是起点，所以我们必须重新平衡。但除此之外，做这件事的一个关键原因是为了支持关键国家产业的国内生产，并使我们的供应链更具弹性——芯片、数据中心、能源生产。在Altimeter，我们刚刚领投了一家公司的A轮融资，我甚至不知道是否已经宣布了，但我在这里宣布一下，这是一家全美范围内的稀土磁铁生产商。对吧？由于关税和政府重振这些关键供应链的决心，这些现在都是可行的投资了。所以，这是一项巨大的好处，你愿意为此付出一些代价，但我们不仅获得了好处，而且还在得到回报。

Yeah. Can I add one thing guys like not on the economic side but like you know running the supply chain you know Grock and look we're we're fortunate that like the majority of our supply chain is US- eccentric including our chips but um you know we still have small discreet components and Brad exactly what you were saying is happening is that the the producers the manufacturers of those things are coming and you're negotiating and we've had pretty you know significant negotiations with those folks and that that was I think like not like you said wasn't anticipated. The other thing is it hasn't been um static. The one thing again I'll go back to this administration they moved like we've we've seen you know our tariff schedule move around probably six to eight times since this all has started because they keep evaluating they understand they listen and I think that's also a function of how this administration operates and we want to give them credit for that like people can go and share with them hey like these things are not available we can't replace them right away and I think that that's also helping with that last thing you said with the investment you're making is companies get established on shore to take advantage of what these tariffs are causing.

是的。伙计们，我能补充一点吗？不是从经济角度，而是从像Grock这样运营供应链的角度来看。我们很幸运，我们的大部分供应链都以美国为中心，包括我们的芯片。但我们仍然有小的零散组件，布拉德，你刚才说的正是发生的事情，那些东西的生产者、制造商正在找我们谈判，我们与这些人进行了相当重要的谈判，我认为这就像你说的，是意料之外的。另一件事是，它不是一成不变的。我再次回到这个政府，他们一直在行动。我们看到，自从这一切开始以来，我们的关税时间表可能已经调整了六到八次，因为他们在不断评估、他们理解并倾听。我认为这也是这个政府运作方式的一部分，我们想为此归功于他们。人们可以告诉他们：“嘿，这些东西目前不可用，我们不能马上替代它们。”我认为这也是对你所说的投资有帮助的——公司正在上岸，以利用关税带来的机会。

Sunny, has your supply chain planning and that that dynamic nature, is that started to settle down? Do you see this, you know, are we reaching the end of the tariff negotiation such that everything can kind of settle down and operate?

Sunny，你的供应链规划和这种动态性质，是否开始稳定下来了？你是否认为关税谈判即将结束，以便一切都能平静下来并开始运作？

It's gone from week to week or even day to day when it first started and trying to figure out what happened to like now we're looking at it monthly. So, it's definitely settling. And Brad, we still have a big thing looming with a China discussion, correct?

刚开始时，情况是周复一周甚至日复一日地变化，试图弄清楚发生了什么。但现在我们按月来看了。所以，它肯定在稳定。布拉德，我们仍然面临着与中国讨论这个大问题，对吗？

Yeah. You know, listen, so we landed Europe, we've landed Japan, we're going to have, you know, the long uh the long list is is is is going to be coming out, but when you look at our big trading part partners, the EU, we do, I think, $900 billion of trade with them a year. With China, it's about 600 billion, but we have about a $300 billion goods trade deficit with both Europe and China. So they were the the the two big ones. Um China is the big enchilada because it's not just trade with China, right? It's strategic. It's national security and it's trade. Um and it's the AI race. We know that, you know, the rare earth ban on Chinese magnets was devastating to US industry. We know the retaliation that, you know, where where H20s were cut off in terms of Nvidia's chips back to China. reading the tea leaves. I'm going to I'll go out on a limb and I'll say um the consensus still believes like that the China thing is going to be a problem or that it will be small. I think this president wants to do the biggest deal ever done with China. I don't think he's dogmatic at all. I don't think he's some big China hawk. He said at the AI summit last week, I'm a deal junkie. I like to do deals. You can't be the biggest deal maker in the world without doing a big deal with China.

是的。听着，我们搞定了欧洲，搞定了日本，你知道，很长的清单即将公布。但看看我们主要的贸易伙伴，欧盟，我认为我们每年与他们的贸易额达9000亿美元。与中国的贸易额约为6000亿美元，但我们在与欧洲和中国之间都有约3000亿美元的商品贸易逆差。所以他们是两个大头。中国是那个“大人物”，因为它不仅仅是与中国的贸易，对吧？它关乎战略、国家安全和贸易。它也关乎AI竞赛。我们知道，对中国磁铁的稀土禁令对美国工业造成了毁灭性打击。我们也知道，英伟达的H20芯片被切断对华出口所带来的报复。揣摩形势，我敢打赌，共识仍然认为中国问题将是一个问题，或者影响会很小。我认为这位总统想与中国达成有史以来最大的交易。我不认为他有任何教条主义。我不认为他是一个强硬的对华鹰派。他上周在AI峰会上说：“我是一个交易迷。我喜欢做交易。要成为世界上最伟大的交易促成者，就必须与中国做一笔大交易。”

All right.

好的。

Right. And I and I, you know, if you just look at today, the Chinese uh reciprocated in a way I think the the US government was looking for. They said, "Hey, we'll postpone all of our retaliatory tariffs." They've invited the president to China. The president has suggested he's going to go to China the first week of September or sometime between September and November. I think there is a very very big deal that's going to get done with China that's going to reorient the relationship in a big way. And let me just like tease this. The president said earlier this year something that caught all of our attention. He said, "You know, if I could wave a magic wand, I would cut the defense budget in half for the United States, for China, and for Russia." We've never heard a US president in history utter anything like that.

对。看看今天的情况，中国以一种我认为美国政府一直在寻求的方式做出了回应。他们说：“嘿，我们将推迟所有报复性关税。”他们邀请总统访华。总统表示，他打算在九月的第一周或九月到十一月之间访问中国。我认为将有一笔非常非常大的交易与中国达成，这将以重大方式重新定位双边关系。让我稍微透露一下：总统在今年早些时候说了一句引起我们所有人注意的话。他说：“你知道，如果我能挥动魔杖，我会将美国、中国和俄罗斯的国防预算削减一半。”我们从未听美国总统在历史上说过这样的话。

Be amazing. That is a what I would call an extraordinarily flexible mindset. And if you go into this deal negotiation with China with that sort of flexible mindset, I think it could include all of the above. Rare earth chips, maybe even military cooperation, certainly a rebalancing of trade. I think China's, Listen, we entered the year with China paying 15% in tariffs. That was pre-Trump. They were paying 15% to the United States in tariffs. So I don't think we're going below 15%. I think they're going to pay

那将是惊人的。我称之为“极其灵活的心态”。如果你带着这种灵活的心态与中国进行这笔交易谈判，我认为它可以包括以上所有内容：稀土、芯片、甚至可能是军事合作，当然还有贸易的再平衡。听着，我们进入今年时，中国已经向美国支付了15%的关税，这是特朗普之前的水平。所以我不认为我们会低于15%。我认为他们会支付……

in in Trump for

在特朗普的……

Trump won and Trump won, right? So I think that they will continue to pay at least 15%, but I think it's going to be much more structured, much more nuanced. You know, Besson's been very clear China has to rebalance to domestic consumption and away from an export economy that's really uh sticking it to the US in terms of the trades def trade deficit. I think China gets that. I think they want that for their own country. I think they're willing to do that. I think the United States understands that can't happen overnight. It has to happen over a period of years. I think that there's going to be a big Chinese deal done before the year's out.

特朗普赢了，对吧？所以我认为他们将继续支付至少15%的关税，但我认为它会更具结构性，更细致入微。贝桑特一直很明确，中国必须转向国内消费，而不是一个在贸易逆差方面“戳美国”的出口经济体。我认为中国明白这一点。我认为他们也为自己的国家想要这种转变。我认为美国明白这不能一夜之间发生，它需要在几年内完成。我认为今年年底前会有一笔与中国的大交易达成。

So So let's close with this, Brad. You've you've often on the pod um been willing to speak about your your own temperature for the US markets and and and where you whether you're net long or net short. and you you've on this podcast been more enthusiastic than I've ever seen you both about uh about AI, but but this this China theory that you have, I think, would would cause the markets to rip, if you're correct. Um, but you also said we're at all-time highs, you know, and so you want to buy low and sell high. So, where where's your head hanging?

那么，布拉德，我们用这个来结束吧。你经常在播客上愿意谈论你对美国市场的个人看法，以及你是净做多还是净做空。在这期播客中，你对AI的热情程度是我从未见过的。但是你对中国的这个理论，如果你的看法是正确的，会使市场飙升。但你也说过我们正处于历史高位，所以你想低买高卖。那么，你的心态如何？

Uh, we did a pod, I think, around May 2nd. Well, we did the pod in March and I I I said we're out of the market. I remember.

呃，我想我们在5月2日左右做了一期播客。我们在三月份做了那期播客，我记得我说我们退出了市场。

Right. And you and you said you're early and liberation day came and we were happy to be out of the market. On May 2nd, I said we're all we're all back in because the Bessant consensus has won. It's going to be 300 billion. We're going to land the plane. And I outlined a flight path. I said you can land the plane, no inflation, you get rate cuts and you know, and it's kind of off to the races. And we're up 30%, you know, off of that bottom in the NASDAQ since then. So 30%'s a huge move, but when when you when you telescope out, we're up 10% for the year.

对。你说你提前退出了，然后“解放日”来了，我们很高兴退出了市场。在5月2日，我说我们都回来了，因为贝桑特共识赢了。将是3000亿美元，我们将“让飞机安全着陆”。我概述了飞行路径。我说你可以让飞机安全着陆，没有通胀，你会得到降息，然后比赛就开始了。从那以后，纳斯达克从那个底部已经上涨了30%。所以30%是一个巨大的涨幅，但当你放眼更长远时，我们今年累计上涨了10%。

Okay? And if I had told you guys on day one of this year, here's what's going to happen. We're going to rebalance global trade and we're going to land the plane around 300 billion. We're going to have the economy grow at 3% accelerating. We're going to um uh you know have no inflation heading toward rate cuts by the end of the year. um you know that is the backdrop you know that I and we're going to have all of this AI demand and accelerating demand for AI compute I I would have said the market can be up at least 15% for the year I think we've captured a lot of the return for the for the year Bill I will tell you this though we see tons of opportunities and so I would say that we're also bullish on what we see happening in AI Sunny's going to raise a huge new round here we're happy to be investors with Sunny as well and and it's extraordinary to watch watch what Sunny's uh No, seriously. He

好的？如果我在今年第一天告诉你们会发生什么：我们将重新平衡全球贸易，最终目标是3000亿美元的关税。我们将看到经济以3%的速度加速增长。我们将……你知道，到今年年底，通胀将消失，并朝着降息迈进。你知道，这就是背景，我们将拥有所有这些AI需求和加速的AI计算需求。我想我会说，市场今年至少可以上涨15%。我认为我们已经获得了今年的大部分回报，比尔，但我会告诉你，我们看到了大量的机会，所以我认为我们对AI领域发生的事情也持乐观态度。Sunny将在这里筹集一轮巨额新资金，我们很高兴成为Sunny的投资者，见证Sunny的……不，说真的，他……

wasn't supposed to disclose that. He can edit it out.

他不应该透露的。他可以剪掉。

He has He has it, but his face is turning all red.

他有，但他脸都红了。

Have a good week. And

祝你有个愉快的一周。

thank you, Sunny, for coming on with us today. Thank you so much. I know it's

谢谢Sunny今天来参加我们的节目。非常感谢。我知道……

Thanks for having me. Thank

谢谢你的邀请。

Yeah. Thanks, guys.

是的。谢谢你们。

Byebye.

再见。

Take care, guys.

保重，伙计们。

As a reminder to everybody, just our opinions, not investment advice.

提醒大家，这只是我们的观点，并非投资建议。