市场概览与开场

Good morning everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market open. We are live. It is Thursday, October 16th, and we are back. 大家早上好。欢迎回到又一期市场开盘节目。我们正在直播。今天是10月16日星期四，我们又回来了。

It is basically not basically November, but it is getting pretty damn close to November, dude. 基本上，这还不是十一月，但已经非常接近十一月了，伙计。

Like, this end of year stuff is moving pretty quick. 就像，这年终的事情进展得相当快。

We are more than halfway done of October, and once October's done, we got two months left of the year, and then we are done for 2025. 十月已经过半，十月一过，今年就只剩下两个月了，然后2025年就结束了。

So, kind of crazy how fast the world is moving, but the markets are moving faster. 所以，世界发展如此之快有点疯狂，但市场发展得更快。

We got a lot of stuff to talk about in regard to the markets. 关于市场，我们有很多事情要谈。

You're getting old at rapid speeds. Yes, exactly. 你正在以惊人的速度变老。是的，没错。

Ten more days, no, less than 10 days until your boy turns 28 years old. 还有不到十天，我就要满28岁了。

So, we got the birthday coming up as well. 所以，我的生日也快到了。

Miss Lafi, good morning to you. Julie, June, what's up? Thiago, what's up? Byron, Megan, thank you everybody for being here. Lafi女士，早上好。Julie，June，你们好吗？Thiago，你好吗？Byron，Megan，谢谢大家的到来。

TSM财报：AI芯片需求爆发

TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company: 台湾积体电路制造公司) earnings, big one. First big semiconductor earnings. 台积电 (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company: 台湾积体电路制造公司) 的财报，一个重磅消息。这是第一份重要的半导体公司财报。

We got to talk about that. It is one that quite frankly continued to make the case for why this market cycle around AI (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) is not going anywhere. 我们必须谈谈这个。坦率地说，它继续证明了围绕人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 的市场周期不会停滞不前。

I mean, it's a pretty just mind-blowing number. 我的意思是，这是一个相当令人震惊的数字。

So, we're going to start off with TSM earnings. Talk about that, talk about the implications of that. 所以，我们先从台积电的财报开始。讨论一下它，以及它所带来的影响。

For those that are in Amkor (Amkor Technology: 半导体封装测试服务供应商), TSM earnings are actually really bullish for Amkor. 对于那些持有安靠 (Amkor Technology: 半导体封装测试服务供应商) 股票的人来说，台积电的财报实际上对安靠非常看好。

Amkor is up 6% in the pre-markets. 安靠在盘前交易中上涨了6%。

They said some really good stuff about their Arizona fab (Fabrication Plant: 晶圆厂). 他们对亚利桑那州的晶圆厂 (Fabrication Plant: 晶圆厂) 说了一些非常好的话。

Amkor does a lot of business with the onshoring of manufacturing semiconductors inside the United States, particularly in Arizona. 安靠在美国本土，特别是在亚利桑那州，承接了大量半导体制造回流的业务。

In fact, Amkor's headquarters is literally across from the TSM fab in Arizona. 事实上，安靠的总部就在亚利桑那州台积电晶圆厂的对面。

So, that stock is up as well. Nvidia's up. AMD is slightly red after AMD was up 10% yesterday. 所以，那只股票也上涨了。英伟达上涨。AMD昨天上涨10%后略微下跌。

S&P (Standard & Poor's: 标普) is up about half a percent, but all the semiconductor names are benefiting off the just unbelievable amounts of demand that TSM showed off this morning. 标普 (Standard & Poor's: 标普) 上涨了大约0.5%，但所有半导体公司都受益于台积电今早展示的令人难以置信的需求量。

And so we'll talk about that. Charles Schwab, they crushed on the earnings. We'll get into that. 所以我们会谈谈这个。嘉信理财（Charles Schwab）的财报表现非常出色。我们稍后会深入探讨。

United Airlines yesterday said they are guiding for their best operating income in company history for Q4. 联合航空昨天表示，他们预计第四季度的营业收入将创下公司历史新高。

I mean, you know, we talk about the consumer not necessarily being the best. 我的意思是，我们都知道，消费者的情况不一定最好。

JP Morgan and City Bank said delinquency rates are actually lower than expected when you look at the transcripts of their earnings calls. 摩根大通和花旗银行表示，从他们的财报电话会议记录来看，逾期还款率实际上低于预期。

Then United says, "Travel's at an all-time high, and we're going to give the best quarter that we've ever given as a public company in Q4." 然后联合航空说：“旅行达到了历史最高水平，我们将在第四季度实现作为上市公司有史以来最好的季度业绩。”

I mean, this earnings season, it's only five days old, but it has started to accumulate into making me think that we are going to have a pretty strong earnings throughout the rest of Q3. 我的意思是，这个财报季才刚刚开始五天，但它已经开始让我觉得，第三季度剩余时间的财报表现将相当强劲。

And if we do, I think this market hopefully will be able to maintain its momentum and we can potentially expand that multiple as we get into the end of the year. 如果真是这样，我认为这个市场有望保持其势头，并且我们可能会在年底前扩大估值倍数。

So, we got a lot to talk about, a lot to get into. Again, good morning. Good morning, everybody. 所以，我们有很多事情要谈，有很多内容要深入。再次，大家早上好。

TSM. So, what did they say? What did they do? Well, it was pretty freaking bullish. 台积电。那么，他们说了什么？他们做了什么？嗯，这真是非常看涨。

If you're up at 1:00 a.m. Eastern last night, that's when the earnings came out for TSM. 如果你昨晚东部时间凌晨1点还没睡，那就是台积电财报发布的时候。

And the earnings were pretty incredible. So, revenue 33.1 versus 31.5. That is a $2 billion beat. 财报相当惊人。营收331亿美元，而预期为315亿美元。这超出了20亿美元。

EPS (Earnings Per Share: 每股收益) 292 versus 29. That is a 30 cent beat or 40 cent beat on EPS. 每股收益 (Earnings Per Share: 每股收益) 为2.92美元，而预期为0.29美元。这在每股收益上超出了0.30美元或0.40美元。

They're guiding for 32 to 33.4 billion. The estimate was 32. 他们预计营收在320亿到334亿美元之间。市场预期是320亿美元。

They usually get on the high end of the guide, which means they're going to beat by about 1.4 billion. 他们通常会达到指导区间的上限，这意味着他们将超出约14亿美元。

Now, take a look at these stats. North American customers accounted for 76% of total revenue. 现在，看看这些数据。北美客户贡献了总营收的76%。

Operating and gross margins were both up 2 to 3% year-over-year. 营业利润率和毛利率均同比增长2%至3%。

Again, for a hardware company to increase those operating margins. That's very important. 再次强调，对于一家硬件公司来说，提高这些营业利润率非常重要。

And their capex (Capital Expenditure: 资本支出) is on a consistent pace quarter over quarter. 而且他们的资本支出 (Capital Expenditure: 资本支出) 季度环比保持稳定。

The other part about this that was very important is that Taiwan Semi is planning on acquiring a second major site in Arizona to accelerate capacity expansion, also known as the United States wants TSM to continue working in the United States and building fabs in the United States. 其中非常重要的另一点是，台积电计划在亚利桑那州收购第二个主要生产基地，以加速产能扩张，这意味着美国希望台积电继续在美国运营并在美国建设晶圆厂。

That's bullish for Amkor. That's potentially bullish for Intel. 这对安靠是利好消息。对英特尔也可能构成利好。

Bullish for a lot of companies that are in the supply chain working with TSM in that fab in Arizona. 对于在亚利桑那州晶圆厂与台积电合作的许多供应链公司来说，这也是利好消息。

And the fact that they want to make a second one is also very bullish. 他们想建第二个晶圆厂的事实也非常看涨。

And then here was the biggest stat that to me just blew my mind. 然后这是最让我震惊的数据。

High performance AI chips, also known as GPUs (Graphics Processing Unit: 图形处理器), accounted for 57% of TSM's revenue this quarter, nearly double that of smartphones at 30%. 高性能人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 芯片，也就是图形处理器 (Graphics Processing Unit: 图形处理器)，本季度占台积电营收的57%，几乎是智能手机30%的两倍。

Basically, the GPU revolution is turning TSM into a monster. 基本上，图形处理器 (Graphics Processing Unit: 图形处理器) 革命正在将台积电变成一个巨头。

This company is up about now TSM was up a lot this week, so that's why the stock's not going crazy. 这家公司现在上涨了，台积电本周已经上涨了很多，所以这就是为什么股价没有疯涨的原因。

It's up about 2.3% right here. All-time highs. Yeah, it's basically at all-time highs. 它在这里上涨了大约2.3%。历史新高。是的，它基本上处于历史新高。

It's basically at all-time highs in the pre-market. So, up 2.3%. 它在盘前交易中基本处于历史高位。所以，上涨了2.3%。

You would think the stock would be up like eight, 10% on this, but it's been up a lot for the past month. 你可能会认为这只股票会因此上涨8%到10%，但过去一个月它已经涨了很多。

But the fact that GPUs are actually starting to contribute the most to their revenue over smartphones, which historically has been the majority of the revenue in terms of chip production sales because, you know, Apple sells billions of those phones is quite incredible. 但事实上，图形处理器对他们营收的贡献开始超过智能手机，而智能手机历来是芯片生产销售的大部分营收来源，因为苹果每年销售数十亿部手机，这相当令人难以置信。

And I think the takeaway for this for investors, if you're an Nvidia, you're in a Micron, you're an SMCI, you're in an AMD, is that this thing is not stopping. 我认为这对投资者来说，如果你是英伟达、美光、SMCI或AMD的投资者，从中得到的启示是，这种趋势不会停止。

This is a very good gauge of demand in the context of Nvidia's earnings, which we'll be getting in a month. 在一个月后即将公布的英伟达财报背景下，这是一个非常好的需求衡量指标。

And for every semiconductor that has earnings, they are going to be tied in some way to overall chip demand. 对于每一家发布财报的半导体公司来说，它们都将以某种方式与整体芯片需求挂钩。

And what you're seeing from TSM is that chip demand is not really slowing down. 你从台积电看到的是，芯片需求并没有真正放缓。

Here's a 3Q 2025 revenue by technology chart to kind of show exactly how it's going. 这里有一张2025年第三季度按技术划分的营收图表，可以确切地展示进展情况。

Those five nanometer chips, 37%, and again, they just continue to execute on the innovation that is necessary to make these chips actually happen in the real world. 那些5纳米芯片占37%，而且他们继续在创新方面取得进展，这是让这些芯片真正在现实世界中实现所必需的。

So really nice to see. I mean for anyone who holds semiconductor stocks or is broadly part of the AI trade, which means honestly if you own any of the Mac 7, you're part of the AI trade. 所以真的很高兴看到。我的意思是，对于任何持有半导体股票或广泛参与人工智能交易的人来说，这意味着如果你拥有任何一家“七巨头”的股票，你就是人工智能交易的一部分。

You need a TSM to have good earnings. And they crushed it. They absolutely crushed it. 你需要台积电有好的财报。而他们做到了。他们绝对做到了。

Awesome to see TSM right there up 2.29%. Let me know in the chat if you own TSM at all. 很高兴看到台积电上涨2.29%。在聊天中告诉我你是否持有台积电股票。

If you're buying here, I mean, if you're buying into strength, if you're selling, if you have any calls on it, puts. 如果你正在这里买入，我是说，如果你在强势时买入，如果你在卖出，如果你有任何看涨期权或看跌期权。

I do not own this one. I am very curious about the company. 我没有持有这只股票。我对这家公司非常好奇。

You know, I wouldn't mind doing a deep dive on this one and going a little bit further to understand it. 你知道，我不介意对它进行一次深入研究，并更进一步地了解它。

But yeah, TSM absolutely massive winner. Wow. Decent amount of you own it. 但是，是的，台积电绝对是一个巨大的赢家。哇。不少人拥有它。

Decent amount of you own it. TSM Arizona is up and running. 不少人拥有它。台积电亚利桑那州工厂已经投产。

It's not fully operational, but it is up and running and it is starting to produce chips. 它还没有完全投入运营，但已经开始运行并生产芯片。

And the fact that they want to acquire a second site in Arizona to be able to continue building fabs just shows that the progress they've had with the first one already is starting to show some good momentum for them. 他们想在亚利桑那州收购第二个工厂以继续建造晶圆厂的事实表明，他们在第一个工厂方面已经取得的进展开始为他们带来良好的发展势头。

All right, decent amount of people right here owning TSM. 好的，这里有不少人持有台积电。

And then obviously Amkor right here is getting the benefit of that 3321 that's up 6%. 显然，安靠在这里正受益于上涨6%的3321股。

Again, they work very closely with TSM. So any good results for TSM should signal demand for Amkor as well. 再次强调，他们与台积电合作非常密切。因此，台积电的任何良好业绩都应该预示着安靠的需求。

Salesforce与银行业绩

Okay, so that's what we got with TSM. Let's talk about Salesforce for a little bit because this stock is actually up 6.3%. 好的，这就是我们关于台积电的讨论。我们来谈谈Salesforce，因为这只股票实际上上涨了6.3%。

So Salesforce has been not moving for the majority of the year. 所以Salesforce在今年大部分时间里都没有什么动静。

It's still down about 25% even after this 6% bump for the year. 即使今年上涨了6%，它仍然下跌了大约25%。

So why is this stock finally starting to move? 那么为什么这只股票终于开始上涨了呢？

Well, Salesforce had their Dreamforce conference yesterday. 嗯，Salesforce昨天举行了他们的Dreamforce大会。

Dreamforce is this annual conference they do in San Francisco, and it's this massive event where I think it's like a 100,000 people attend. Dreamforce是他们在旧金山举办的年度大会，这是一个盛大的活动，我认为大约有10万人参加。

And basically, Benioff guided for $60 billion in revenue by the end of fiscal year 2030. 基本上，贝尼奥夫（Benioff）预计到2030财年结束时，营收将达到600亿美元。

The average CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate: 复合年增长率) revenue was about 8%. This gets you to about 9.5%, so it is much more than what people thought, which is a good thing. 平均复合年增长率 (Compound Annual Growth Rate: 复合年增长率) 约为8%。这使得增长率达到约9.5%，所以这比人们预期的要高得多，这是一件好事。

And so that $60 billion increase in revenue or that $60 billion overall increase for what they're going to be doing by 2030 was a surprise to Wall Street. 因此，到2030年营收增加600亿美元，或者说他们计划实现的整体营收增长600亿美元，对华尔街来说是一个惊喜。

So that's one reason why the stock went up. And then Benioff said, "Hey, we are going to get to a Rule of 30 or sorry, a Rule of 50 by the end of 2030." 所以这是股价上涨的一个原因。然后贝尼奥夫说：“嘿，到2030年底，我们将达到‘30法则’，哦不，是‘50法则’。”

Now again, Rule of 50 is exciting given Rule of 40 is kind of the industry standard when it comes to SaaS (Software as a Service: 软件即服务) companies. 再次强调，“50法则”令人兴奋，因为对于软件即服务 (Software as a Service: 软件即服务) 公司而言，“40法则”是行业标准。

You got other names like PLTR (Palantir Technologies: 数据分析软件公司) that are at Rules of 80s. 还有像Palantir (Palantir Technologies: 数据分析软件公司) 这样的公司，它们达到了“80法则”。

So I mean that is bullish that they're going to get to a 50 by fiscal year 2030. 所以我的意思是，他们到2030财年能达到50，这是看涨的。

But I think the $60 billion target is what matters the most. 但我认为600亿美元的目标才是最重要的。

Look, is it the most exciting in the world? No. 看，这是世界上最令人兴奋的吗？不。

But given these metrics and these updated metrics in terms of revenue CAGR and their operating margin increases to the Rule of 50 by 2030, is it undervalued? Yes. 但考虑到这些指标以及营收复合年增长率和营业利润率到2030年提高到“50法则”的更新数据，它是否被低估了？是的。

I mean Salesforce is undervalued. It's hard to deny Salesforce is undervalued. 我的意思是Salesforce被低估了。很难否认Salesforce被低估了。

It's just is there an opportunity cost to putting your money here? 只是，把你的钱投入这里是否有机会成本？

Ala, PayPal, and, you know, not really contributing to some of the other names that don't have narratives associated with them. 比如，PayPal，你知道，它并没有真正对其他一些没有相关叙事支撑的股票做出贡献。

So, Salesforce right there 251 up 6.2%. Do I think this is going to be the most important AI name over the next decade? Not really. 所以，Salesforce目前股价251美元，上涨6.2%。我是否认为它将成为未来十年最重要的人工智能公司？不尽然。

But for those that were in this name and that needed some level of excitement, Benioff tried to deliver it yesterday. 但对于那些持有这只股票并需要一些兴奋点的投资者来说，贝尼奥夫昨天试图提供了。

On top of that, Google partnered with Salesforce today as well. 除此之外，谷歌今天也与Salesforce合作了。

Gemini and Salesforce launched a partnership. So obviously Salesforce is trying to get in with all the other LLMs (Large Language Model: 大型语言模型) and make sure that these partnerships can make sense. Gemini和Salesforce建立了合作关系。所以很明显，Salesforce正试图与所有其他大型语言模型 (Large Language Model: 大型语言模型) 合作，并确保这些伙伴关系是合理的。

CRM (Customer Relationship Management: 客户关系管理) and Google expanded their partnership to integrate Gemini AI into Agent Force 360. 客户关系管理 (Customer Relationship Management: 客户关系管理) 和谷歌扩大了合作，将Gemini 人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 整合到Agent Force 360中。

The update links Salesforce apps with Google's workspace, a service cloud plus Google telephony contract center launches in fiscal year 26, followed by deeper big query data 360 integration in the second half of 26. 此次更新将Salesforce应用程序与谷歌工作区（一个服务云）连接起来，加上谷歌电话合同中心将于26财年推出，随后在26财年下半年将进行更深入的BigQuery Data 360整合。

So look, if you got Salesforce, this is bullish news to see. 所以，如果你持有Salesforce，这是利好消息。

Do you use this as an exit opportunity? I mean, again, I think it's cheap. 你是否将其视为一个退出机会？我的意思是，我认为它仍然便宜。

So, if you've held on for so long, you probably just continue to hold on. 所以，如果你已经持有这么久，你可能只会继续持有。

But it really just depends if the company could surprise the market with further growth. 但这真的取决于公司能否以进一步的增长给市场带来惊喜。

Now, you've got tons of price targets out the wazoo saying, "Hey, this thing deserves to be at 300," which it probably does. 现在，你有很多价格目标，都说“嘿，这东西应该值300美元”，它可能确实如此。

But ultimately, the question is going to be if it actually gets there. 但最终的问题是它是否真的能达到那个价格。

25090 is what you got on Salesforce. And that stock is green in the pre-market based on those new projections. Salesforce的股价是250.90美元。根据这些新的预测，该股在盘前交易中上涨。

So, right there, that's up 28.28. That's up 1%. 所以，它上涨了28.28，上涨了1%。

SoFi. I mean, basically he sounds pretty damn bullish. SoFi。我的意思是，基本上他听起来非常看涨。

He sounds pretty damn bullish from my understanding of what he said. 据我理解他所说的话，他听起来非常看涨。

And, you know, he said they're ready to roll out crypto. He said they're ready to roll out more types of innovation to the overall blockchain tech. 而且，你知道，他说他们已经准备好推出加密货币。他说他们已经准备好推出更多类型的创新，以推动整体区块链技术的发展。

He says that stablecoins are going to start to be more exciting in the actual ecosystem. 他说稳定币将在实际生态系统中变得更加令人兴奋。

So, I mean, it was a pretty good interview. I don't have the actual video of the interview, but overall, you know, he was pretty excited. 所以，我的意思是，这是一次相当不错的采访。我没有采访的实际视频，但总的来说，他看起来很兴奋。

And it doesn't look like they're going to have a bad Q3 going into the end of the year. 而且看起来他们今年第三季度到年底的业绩不会差。

So anyway, look, I think SoFi is going to do well. I think they're going to have good earnings. 所以无论如何，我认为SoFi会表现良好。我认为他们会有不错的财报。

I mean, Bank of America crushed it yesterday. Morgan Stanley crushed it yesterday. 我的意思是，美国银行昨天表现出色。摩根士丹利昨天也表现出色。

These banks are just producing, Morgan Stanley beat by 35% on EPS. 这些银行只是在创造业绩，摩根士丹利在每股收益 (Earnings Per Share: 每股收益) 上超出了35%。

I mean, these bank beats are just becoming incredible to witness. 我的意思是，这些银行的业绩超预期简直令人难以置信。

SoFi is actually growing as a bank. They're not, you know, three, four, five% per year. They're upwards of 30%. SoFi作为一家银行正在实际增长。他们的增长率不是每年3%、4%或5%，而是超过30%。

So, if the JP Morgans and City Banks of the world are saying credit delinquencies are lower than expected, on the market close, we were reading through the transcript and JPM said literally their delinquency rates came in better than expected, also known as they weren't as high as they thought it was going to be. 所以，如果像摩根大通和花旗银行这样的全球性银行都说信贷违约率低于预期，在收盘时，我们阅读了会议记录，摩根大通明确表示他们的违约率好于预期，也就是说没有他们想象的那么高。

And then Citigroup said, "We see them coming in line, so it's not that big of a deal." 然后花旗集团说：“我们认为它们符合预期，所以这不是什么大问题。”

SoFi's credit underwriting is pretty phenomenal. I don't think they're going to have that many issues this quarter. SoFi的信贷承销能力相当出色。我认为他们本季度不会出现太多问题。

The question is, can this stock get a rerating into the mid-30s? 问题是，这只股票能否重新评级到30多美元的区间？

And we're going to see rate cuts coming down are super bullish. 我们将看到降息的到来非常看涨。

No delinquency issues is super bullish. Overall refinancing demand is super bullish. Crypto coming back is super bullish. 没有拖欠问题非常看涨。整体再融资需求非常看涨。加密货币回归非常看涨。

SoFi said by November 15th, or by early November, you'll be able to apply to sign up to SoFi's crypto products as they're bringing that back to the ecosystem as well. SoFi表示，到11月15日或11月初，你将能够申请注册SoFi的加密产品，因为他们也将把这些产品带回生态系统。

Yeah, here's what they tweeted yesterday. Join by 11:30 2025, so November 30th, you can open an account and you can sign up to trade crypto. 是的，这是他们昨天发的推文。在2025年11月30日前加入，你就可以开户并注册交易加密货币。

So I think SoFi will be okay. It's just a question of now them showing out their execution as well. 所以我认为SoFi会没事的。现在只是他们展示执行力的问题。

加密货币与新兴科技

All right, so that's what we got on SoFi. Let's go to some of the stuff going on in the world of crypto. 好的，这就是我们关于SoFi的讨论。我们来看看加密货币世界里正在发生的一些事情。

Ethereum BMR actually moving a little bit in the pre-markets as Ethereum is moving up 54.83. 以太坊BMR在盘前交易中略有波动，以太坊上涨了54.83。

Now, we don't know if Tom Lee has bought Ethereum. 现在，我们不知道Tom Lee是否购买了以太坊。

However, there are some wallet addresses that are associated with Tom Lee and his buying spree of Ethereum, and they're saying that he bought another 28,000 Ethereum over the past like two days. 然而，有一些钱包地址与Tom Lee及其购买以太坊的热潮相关联，据说他在过去两天又购买了28,000个以太坊。

Again, we get an update every Monday, and so we'll hear from the company themselves if they actually started buying more Ethereum. 我们每周一都会收到更新，所以如果他们真的开始购买更多以太坊，我们就会从公司那里听到消息。

But based on some of these blockchain addresses, it does look like, you know, they are buying more ETH (Ethereum: 以太坊). 但根据一些区块链地址来看，他们确实在购买更多以太坊 (Ethereum: 以太坊)。

I mean, it makes sense. ETH in this 4,000 range is what they want to buy. They were buying it at 3,700. 我的意思是，这很合理。他们想买4000美元左右的以太坊。他们之前在3700美元买入。

I would imagine they'd rather buy here than at 4,700. And as a result, you're seeing a little bit of momentum right there. 我想他们宁愿在这里买，也不愿在4700美元买。因此，你看到了一点点势头。

Bitcoin as well 111.54. Whereas Micro Strategy pre-markets Micro Strategy right here 301. 比特币也涨到111.54。而微策略（Micro Strategy）在盘前交易中是301。

It did close below below 296 yesterday. And then Coinbase is at 340. That's all screen. 它昨天确实收盘低于296。然后Coinbase是340。那都是屏幕上的数字。

BMR got a $90 price target initiated. Do we know the company that did that? BMR获得了90美元的目标价。我们知道是哪家公司给的吗？

I'd be curious to see what bank gave them 90 bucks. BMR90. 我很想知道是哪家银行给了他们90美元。BMR90。

Was it JMP Securities? No. B Riley. Wow. BR Riley. All right. $90. 是JMP证券吗？不是。B Riley。哇。BR Riley。好的。90美元。

This is the first real price target I've seen on the street. 这是我在市场上看到的第一个真正的目标价。

ASB (Astera Labs: 数据中心互连解决方案提供商) got 35. Okay. So, the reason I said JMP is because Devin Ryan, one of our analysts who's covered Hood for a long time. Astera Labs (Astera Labs: 数据中心互连解决方案提供商) 获得了35美元的目标价。好的。我之所以提到JMP，是因为Devin Ryan，我们的一位分析师，他长期关注Robinhood。

He initiated coverage on ASB, but he doesn't have a price target, but he initiated coverage on them, and so he is becoming a bit more bullish about these ETH treasuries. 他开始关注Astera Labs，但他没有给出目标价，他只是开始关注他们，所以他对这些以太坊国债变得更加看涨。

I didn't expect Devin Ryan, who's like a hardcore financial guy, to initiate coverage on an ETH treasury. 我没想到Devin Ryan，一个资深金融人士，会开始关注以太坊国债。

Again, he's been bullish Robin. He's one of the only people who's bullish Robin Hood on the street at $8. 再次强调，他一直看好Robinhood。他是市场上少数几个在8美元时看好Robinhood的人之一。

But he said yeah, I think ASB looks like maybe the finance guys are coming around to these ETH treasuries. 但他表示，是的，我认为Astera Labs看起来可能让金融界人士开始关注这些以太坊国债。

And, you know, the reason they are probably doing that, if I had to guess, is because they're probably talking to a lot of people on Wall Street. 而且，你知道，如果我不得不猜测，他们之所以这样做，可能是因为他们正在与华尔街的许多人交谈。

And a lot of people on Wall Street are telling them that we think Ethereum is going to be the blockchain of choice when it comes to bringing Wall Street assets on chain. 华尔街的许多人告诉他们，我们认为以太坊将成为将华尔街资产上链的首选区块链。

And if that's the case, you got Wall Street guys probably thinking, "All right, well, these digital asset treasuries are probably going to get somewhat of a multiple." 如果真是这样，华尔街的人可能会想：“好吧，这些数字资产国债可能会获得一定的倍数。”

And as a result, if you want to have some exposure, if JP Morgan's going to start integrating all their assets and BlackRock's going to tokenize real estate on Ethereum onto Ethereum, and as a result, you're getting some more excitement right there. 因此，如果你想获得一些敞口，如果摩根大通要开始整合他们所有的资产，并且贝莱德要在以太坊上将房地产代币化，结果就是你会在那里获得更多的兴奋。

The other big update on Ethereum yesterday, which we didn't cover on the market close because I missed it, was Alibaba. 昨天以太坊的另一个重大更新，我们收盘时没有报道，因为我错过了，是阿里巴巴。

So, Alibaba's Alipay and its 1.4 billion monthly active users are processing on an Ethereum L2 (Layer 2: 以太坊二层网络). 所以，阿里巴巴的支付宝及其14亿月活跃用户正在一个以太坊二层网络 (Layer 2: 以太坊二层网络) 上进行交易处理。

Jov is an Ethereum L2 launched by Ant Group, which is one of the world's largest mobile payment platforms by Alipay. Jov是蚂蚁集团推出的以太坊二层网络，蚂蚁集团通过支付宝是全球最大的移动支付平台之一。

It is huge and has flown completely under the radar in terms of the types of companies that are actually working on Ethereum layer 2s. 它规模巨大，但在实际开发以太坊二层网络的各类公司中，它完全被忽视了。

And again, those layer 2s end up helping Ethereum long term along, especially with the supply of volume that's on those blockchains and the gas fees. 再次强调，这些二层网络最终会长期帮助以太坊，尤其是在这些区块链上的交易量供应和燃气费方面。

And so you have one of the biggest payment providers in the world that is saying we are starting to bring things on chain in China out of all places. 所以，世界上最大支付提供商之一正在说我们开始在中国这个地方将事物上链。

You know, China has not been the most friendliest to crypto for Ethereum. 你知道，中国对加密货币，特别是对以太坊，一直不是最友好的。

So, I mean, again, like I know Ethereum is not moving like crazy. No, it's not going to the moon. 所以，我的意思是，再次强调，我知道以太坊并没有疯狂上涨。不，它不会涨到天上去。

BMR is kind of stuck right here. But if you believe in that long-term vision of tokenization and stablecoins, you probably take a bet on Ethereum. BMR目前有点停滞不前。但如果你相信代币化和稳定币的长期愿景，你可能会选择投资以太坊。

And whether it's buying ETH directly, whether it's buying Hood as your exposure, whether it's buying Coinbase, or whether it's buying BMR, do you think having some exposure is not the not the worst thing in the world? 无论是直接购买以太坊，还是购买Hood作为敞口，无论是购买Coinbase，还是购买BMR，你认为拥有一些敞口并不是世界上最糟糕的事情吗？

DoorDash and Google owned Waymo just announced a new partnership to launch an autonomous delivery service in Metro Phoenix. DoorDash和谷歌旗下的Waymo刚刚宣布建立新的合作伙伴关系，将在凤凰城都会区推出自动驾驶送货服务。

Okay, so DoorDash and Google DoorDash up 4% right here. 好的，所以DoorDash和谷歌DoorDash在这里上涨了4%。

I've never looked into DoorDash, but the amount of DoorDash drivers I see in my city. 我从未研究过DoorDash，但我看到我所在城市有大量的DoorDash司机。

I mean, like, it makes me want to take another look at DoorDash. 我的意思是，这让我很想再看看DoorDash。

Like, this is a real business and this is a real source of income for a lot of people. 比如，这是一个真实的业务，也是许多人真实的收入来源。

And you know, I've never really lived in a city. 而且你知道，我从来没有真正住过城市。

Now that I'm in a city and I see how many people are DoorDashing, it's quite incredible. 现在我身处城市，看到有多少人在做DoorDash，这相当令人难以置信。

And I've never really looked at the economics of DoorDash. 我从未真正研究过DoorDash的经济模式。

But there you go. Up 4% based on that partnership here with Google in Phoenix. 但你看，由于与谷歌在凤凰城的合作，该股上涨了4%。

Google right here back to 252. That's back above 250 in the pre-markets. 谷歌在这里回到了252美元。这在盘前交易中又回到了250美元以上。

Amazon One Medical introduces pay-per-visit healthcare for children's ages 2 through 11. 亚马逊One Medical为2至11岁儿童推出按次付费的医疗服务。

Medical message visits start at 29 and video visits cost 49. 医疗信息问诊起价29美元，视频问诊费用49美元。

Okay, so Amazon's going a little bit of the Teladoc route. 好的，所以亚马逊正在走一点Teladoc的路线。

Amazon wanting to be involved in every single part of people's lives. Is that bearish? 亚马逊希望参与人们生活的方方面面。这会是利空吗？

Hims is a little bit red on this news. Of course, now Amazon medical services, Amazon Pharmacy, this has been out for a while. Hims在这条消息上略有下跌。当然，现在亚马逊医疗服务、亚马逊药房，这些已经存在一段时间了。

And they've been trying to put on ancillary services on it for Prime members for a while. 他们一直在尝试为Prime会员提供配套服务。

Engaging in the video operating ecosystem for medical services is not that crazy given, you know, we're starting to see that normalize a lot more. 考虑到我们开始看到医疗服务的视频操作生态系统越来越常态化，涉足其中并不那么疯狂。

Teladoc right there that stock is up a little bit in the pre-markets. Teladoc那只股票在盘前交易中略有上涨。

I don't think it's the most bearish for Hims, but Hims right there 64 6249. 我认为这对Hims来说并不是最看跌的，但Hims目前股价在64-62.49美元。

Now, the reason Hims was up 18% yesterday, it got to 65, came back down to 62 on the close is because of the HERS launch. 现在，Hims昨天上涨18%的原因，股价一度达到65美元，收盘时回落到62美元，是因为HERS的推出。

And the HERS launch was the thing where Hims has a part of their business called HERS. HERS的推出是Hims业务的一部分，名为HERS。

And they launched some tools for menopause, which is something that older women go through. 他们推出了一些针对更年期的工具，这是老年女性会经历的。

And as a result, I mean, I don't know why that was the reason why the stock took off, but that was the reason why the stock took off. 结果，我的意思是，我不知道为什么那是股价飙升的原因，但那就是股价飙升的原因。

And as a result, it went green. Now, I did sell half my Hims yesterday. 结果，它上涨了。现在，我昨天确实卖出了一半的Hims股票。

So, again, I just don't want to turn this into a long-term position. 所以，我只是不想把这变成一个长期持仓。

So, I sold into some of that liquidity, and I kept the other half. 因此，我利用了一些流动性卖出，并保留了另一半。

But this part definitely was weird yesterday. And I'm not going to This is not bearish Hims, but it is weird. 但这一部分昨天确实很奇怪。我不会说这对Hims是利空，但确实很奇怪。

Someone tweeted, "The Hims squeeze is here." And then Andrew Dudum, the CEO, quote tweeted that with a rolling eye emoji. 有人发推说：“Hims的逼空来了。”然后首席执行官Andrew Dudum转发了这条推文，并附上了一个翻白眼的表情符号。

Is it just me, or is this really cringe? Like really, really cringe? 是我一个人觉得，还是这真的很令人尴尬？就像真的，真的很令人尴尬？

Like I do not want to see a CEO quote tweet a retail investor talking about a stock squeezing with a rolling eye emoji, trying to get his audience to realize that his stock is in a squeezy position. 我真的不想看到一位首席执行官转发散户投资者谈论股票逼空的推文，还附带一个翻白眼的表情符号，试图让他的受众意识到他的股票正处于逼空状态。

Mind you, Hims is already up 100% year-to-date. It's not like the stock is stuck at $4 and he's desperate to get catch a bid. 请注意，Hims今年以来已经上涨了100%。这不像股价停滞在4美元，他急于寻求买盘。

Hims is up a lot, and Andrew Dudum has taken a lot of profits on the stock by selling a lot of stock this year. Hims已经上涨了很多，Andrew Dudum今年通过出售大量股票获得了丰厚利润。

So, I really think it's weird. Like, I'm not saying this is bearish Hims or anything. 所以，我真的觉得这很奇怪。我的意思是，我不是说这对Hims是利空或者其他什么。

This has nothing to do with the stock. It's just like I don't like it. 这与股票无关。只是我不喜欢。

There's a way to engage with retail investors without being this cringe. 有一种方式可以与散户投资者互动，而不会显得如此令人尴尬。

Like, Vlad would never do that. If I tweeted, "Oh, Robin's getting squeezed." 就像，Vlad绝不会那样做。如果我发推说：“哦，Robinhood正在被逼空。”

He would never quote tweet that and give me an eye emoji and try to convince people that his stock is, like, he barely talks about the stock. 他绝不会转发那条推文，给我一个翻白眼的表情，然后试图说服人们他的股票如何，比如他几乎不谈论股票。

He hesitates to ever talk about the stock online because you just don't do that, right? 他在线上很少谈论股票，因为你就是不应该那样做，对吧？

Like that's you let your actions do the talking. They don't actually talk about the stock itself. 就像那样，你让你的行动说话。他们实际上不谈论股票本身。

I don't know. It was kind of weird. It was kind of weird for me. 我不知道。这有点奇怪。对我来说有点奇怪。

But regardless, I don't think that's like bearish Hims or anything. 但无论如何，我不认为那对Hims是利空或其他什么。

It was just one of those things that I didn't love to see. 那只是我不太喜欢看到的事情之一。

Nonetheless, Hims was up 18% yesterday. Now the question for Hims is, can they keep up that momentum? 尽管如此，Hims昨天上涨了18%。现在对Hims来说，问题是他们能否保持这种势头？

The stock got to 65 for the first time after a couple months. 几个月后，这只股票首次达到了65美元。

So today is going to be a really important thing to see if, like, if it's enough to keep it going. 所以今天将是一个非常重要的观察点，看看这是否足以让它继续上涨。

Hims's short float (Short Interest Ratio: 空头持仓比率) is still 35%. There could be a squeeze happening. Hims的空头持仓比率 (Short Interest Ratio: 空头持仓比率) 仍然是35%。可能会发生逼空。

Maybe the shorts double down because we've been through this rodeo many times. 也许空头会加倍下注，因为我们已经经历过很多次这种情况了。

But I think when the market opens, we're going to see what happens in the context of Hims. 但我认为，当市场开盘时，我们将看到Hims的情况。

6249 is what we have on Hims. Hims的股价是62.49美元。

Palantir与Snowflake合作

Now let's talk about this Palantir Snowflake partnership. 现在我们来谈谈Palantir和Snowflake的合作。

So Palantir did announce this morning that they are partnering with Snowflake. 所以Palantir今天早上确实宣布他们将与Snowflake合作。

And the idea of the partnership is actually very similar to what Chad talked about. 这次合作的理念实际上与Chad谈论的非常相似。

Now Chad came on the channel a couple months ago. I think it was in early August and basically said that Palantir wants to be a more interoperable platform with all the other companies that are out there and that exist. Chad几个月前曾来到我们的频道。我想那是在八月初，他基本上说Palantir希望成为一个与其他所有现有公司更具互操作性的平台。

And the idea is, hey, if you are on Snowflake or you are on Databricks, there's no reason for you to necessarily leave your data provider. 这个想法是，嘿，如果你在使用Snowflake或Databricks，你没有必要离开你的数据供应商。

You should be able to integrate with Palantir. 你应该能够与Palantir集成。

So quote from the press release today, "Eaton is one of the first companies that is going to be working with this integration on Snowflake and Palantir." 所以引用今天新闻稿中的一句话：“伊顿公司是首批与Snowflake和Palantir进行这种集成合作的公司之一。”

And the chief data officer says, "Discoverability, accessibility, and usability are key to unlocking the value of our data assets for the business." 首席数据官表示：“可发现性、可访问性和可用性是为企业释放数据资产价值的关键。”

"With a native integration between Snowflake and Palantir, two of our strategic technology partners, we eliminate tedious data movement tasks, allowing us to focus on delivering outcomes ranging from agentic configuration, pricing, and quoting to digital twins on our shop floor and improved pricing in our products on the field." “通过Snowflake和Palantir这两个我们的战略技术合作伙伴之间的原生集成，我们消除了繁琐的数据移动任务，使我们能够专注于交付成果，从代理配置、定价和报价，到车间数字孪生，以及现场产品定价的改进。”

Chief revenue officer of Snowflake said bringing the power of the Palantir and Snowflake platforms together is a natural fit aimed at reducing friction for customers to more easily deploy intelligent apps and accelerate time to value. Snowflake的首席营收官表示，将Palantir和Snowflake平台的力量结合起来是天作之合，旨在减少客户部署智能应用和加速实现价值的时间所面临的摩擦。

This is exactly what Chad talked about a month ago. 这正是Chad一个月前谈到的。

And then Ted Mabrey, global head of commercial at Palantir said, "First-class interoperability means our customers win." 然后Palantir全球商务主管Ted Mabrey表示：“一流的互操作性意味着我们的客户获胜。”

"We are excited to partner with Snowflake to power our customers' futures together. Eaton setting the standard for what the AI powered institution of the future will look like." “我们很高兴与Snowflake合作，共同为客户的未来赋能。伊顿正在为未来人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 驱动的机构树立标准。”

I think this is super bullish. And the reason this is super bullish is because you want to see Palantir being able to get customers or be able to expand the relationship they have with customers without forcing those customers to leave the companies that they're already working with. 我认为这非常看涨。之所以如此看涨，是因为你希望看到Palantir能够获得客户，或者能够扩展他们与客户的关系，而无需强迫这些客户离开他们已经合作的公司。

If you're integrated on Salesforce and your company has been integrated on Salesforce for like five years, you're not just going to leave Sales, or sorry, Snowflake, you're not just going to leave Snowflake and go to Palantir even if Palantir is more compelling of an offer. 如果你已在Salesforce上集成，并且你的公司已经在Salesforce上集成了大约五年，你不会仅仅离开Salesforce，哦不，是Snowflake，你不会仅仅离开Snowflake转投Palantir，即使Palantir的报价更具吸引力。

So the ability to integrate with them and Palantir for Palantir to be able to get a slice of that revenue while still providing a lot of value long term, I think, is a genius move. 因此，能够与他们集成，并且Palantir能够从中分得一部分收入，同时长期提供大量价值，我认为这是一个天才之举。

And that theoretically should be a go-to-market that massively accelerates the customer adoption and as a result the commercial revenue, which again, that commercial revenue growing at the levels it's growing at, if that can continue for the next three or four years, they're going to be doing tens of billions of dollars of revenue by 2030, 2032. 理论上，这应该是一种极大地加速客户采纳并因此增加商业收入的上市策略，如果这种商业收入能以目前的水平在未来三四年内持续增长，那么到2030年或2032年，他们的营收将达到数百亿美元。

So I think that's going to be really important to see, and as a result, it makes sense for them to work together. 所以我认为这会非常重要，结果是，他们合作是合理的。

If you can't beat them, then join them. Yeah, it's a little bit of that, hey, if you can't beat them, join them philosophy. 如果你打不过他们，那就加入他们。是的，这有点像“如果你打不过他们，就加入他们”的哲学。

But it's also kind of like, you know, Palantir is not beating this company to get off of Snowflake. 但它也有点像，你知道，Palantir并不是在击败这家公司让它放弃Snowflake。

And Snowflake might not be beating this company for them to get off of Palantir. 而且Snowflake可能也不是在击败这家公司让它放弃Palantir。

So, both of them recognizing we might as well just be interoperable and work together. 所以，他们都意识到不如互相兼容，共同合作。

And this is exactly what the Palantir Databricks federal government partnership was like back in March of 2025. 这正是2025年3月Palantir与Databricks的联邦政府合作模式。

And, you know, as a result, I think that's why we're seeing more of that momentum together. 而且，你知道，我认为这就是为什么我们看到更多的这种共同的势头。

Google right there up about 1%. Palantir's up 1%. 谷歌上涨了大约1%。Palantir上涨了1%。

Snowflake's actually had a pretty good year as well. Snowflake right there 250 that is up 4% in the pre-markets as well. Snowflake实际上今年也表现不错。Snowflake目前股价250美元，在盘前交易中也上涨了4%。

So that's what you got for Palantir and Snowflake. 所以这就是Palantir和Snowflake的情况。

AMD right there. That's down about half a percent 237. AMD就在那里。下跌了大约0.5%，股价237美元。

AMD exploded yesterday. We don't know why. AMD昨天暴涨。我们不知道为什么。

I think it was more so because of the Oracle partnership that kind of got delayed. 我认为更多是因为与甲骨文的合作被推迟了。

The macro news with the soybeans kind of took Oracle and AMD down on Wednesday. 周三关于大豆的宏观消息导致甲骨文和AMD下跌。

So it looks like yesterday kind of brought it back up. 所以看起来昨天又把它拉回来了。

And or at least I took it down on Tuesday, and Wednesday brought it back up, and you know, now AMD chilling above the 230s potentially normalizing above the 230s, which would be very nice. 或者至少我在周二把它卖掉了，周三又把它买回来了，你知道，现在AMD在230美元以上徘徊，可能会在230美元以上正常化，这将是非常好的。

Do you still have your MISTI? Yes, I still have my MISTI. 你还有你的MISTI吗？是的，我还有我的MISTI。

Look at the end of the day, I've said this over and over, the reason MISTI is in a horrible situation right now is because Bitcoin has been in a horrible situation. 说到底，我反复说过，MISTI现在处于糟糕境地的原因是因为比特币一直处于糟糕境地。

And unfortunately, until Bitcoin starts to get its act together, until this digital gold starts acting like real gold, which is hitting new all-time highs as we speak, Micro Strategy is going to suck. 不幸的是，除非比特币开始振作起来，除非这种数字黄金开始像真正的黄金一样表现，也就是在我们说话的时候创下历史新高，否则微策略（Micro Strategy）将会很糟糕。

And as a result, the derivative on Micro Strategy is also going to suck as well. 因此，微策略的衍生品也将表现不佳。

So, if you look at the NVDY ETF (Exchange Traded Fund: 交易所交易基金) or the Robin Hood ETF from YieldMax, those are performing phenomenally well with juicy dividends because the underlyings are performing well. 所以，如果你看NVDY交易所交易基金 (Exchange Traded Fund: 交易所交易基金) 或YieldMax的Robinhood ETF，它们的表现都非常好，股息丰厚，因为标的资产表现良好。

Bitcoin's just not doing as well for Micro Strategy. 比特币对微策略来说表现不佳。

Until that catches up, which maybe by the end of the year it does, then we'll see some progress from that perspective. 直到它迎头赶上，也许到年底会实现，那么我们将从那个角度看到一些进展。

数据中心与能源需求

Amit: All right, let's talk about India. Let's talk about India because we have some macro news yesterday as per Trump. Amit: 好的，我们来谈谈印度。我们来谈谈印度，因为昨天根据特朗普的说法，有一些宏观新闻。

So Trump did a long press conference yesterday, and he talked about a variety of things. 所以特朗普昨天举行了一场长时间的新闻发布会，他谈论了各种各样的事情。

And some stuff the market likes, some stuff the market did not like. 有些事情市场喜欢，有些事情市场不喜欢。

Now why did the market go down yesterday at around 1 p.m.? 那么为什么昨天下午1点左右市场会下跌呢？

Basant gave a quote to the World Bank and basically Bent said, "Hey, you guys need to stop working with China because China is really messing up the rare earth exports, and as a result, it's not something that, you know, we should be supporting as a global organization." Basant向世界银行发表了一段言论，基本上说：“嘿，你们需要停止与中国合作，因为中国正在搞乱稀土出口，结果是，这不应该是我们作为一个全球组织应该支持的事情。”

Now rare earths took it on the chin yesterday. All of them down about 15%. 稀土股昨天遭受重创。所有稀土股都下跌了大约15%。

Some of them recovering right here. MP is up a little bit. TMQ, CRML, US AR, LAC is still down, but a lot of the rare earths got hit off that comment and the idea that the United States was getting closer to decoupling with China. 其中一些正在复苏。MP略有上涨。TMQ、CRML、US AR、LAC仍在下跌，但许多稀土股都受到了那条评论以及美国与中国脱钩的观念的影响。

Then Trump went live and Trump basically said that we are in a trade war with China. 然后特朗普直播了，他基本上说我们正在与中国进行贸易战。

He then said India assured me they would stop buying Russian oil, which we'll talk about. 然后他说印度向他保证他们将停止购买俄罗斯石油，我们稍后会谈到这一点。

And he said five or six wars have been solved because of my use of tariffs. 他还说，由于他使用了关税，五六场战争得到了解决。

So Trump brought back the tariff conversation to the public mainstream, which hasn't really been that much of a conversation over the past couple months. 所以特朗普将关税话题重新带回了公众主流，而这在过去几个月里并没有太多讨论。

But now as he gets into this conversation with China next week in South Korea about whatever they're going to try to negotiate to resolve all the differences that they have and hopefully get to a final confirmed trade deal, it looks like he's bringing back tariffs as a form of leverage. 但现在，当他下周在韩国与中国进行谈判时，关于他们将试图协商解决所有分歧并有望达成最终确认的贸易协议，他似乎正在将关税作为一种筹码重新提上日程。

This is what Trump said yesterday in regards to India, which I think was one of the most important comments he made in the press conference. 这是特朗普昨天关于印度说的话，我认为这是他在新闻发布会上发表的最重要的评论之一。

Trump: And he's assured me there will be no oil purchased from Russia. I don't know, maybe that's a breaking story. Can I say that? 特朗普: 他向我保证，不会再从俄罗斯购买石油。我不知道，这也许是个突发新闻。我能说吗？

Would you say there will be no oil? He's not buying his oil from Russia. It's started. 你会说不会有石油吗？他不再从俄罗斯购买石油了。已经开始了。

You know, you can't do it immediately. It's a little bit of a process, but the process is going to be over with soon. 你知道，你不能立即做到。这需要一个过程，但这个过程很快就会结束。

And all we want from President Putin is stop this. Stop killing Ukrainians and stop killing Russians because he's killing a lot of Russians. 我们对普京总统的要求是停止这一切。停止杀害乌克兰人，停止杀害俄罗斯人，因为他正在杀害很多俄罗斯人。

Again, it doesn't make him look good. It's a war that he should have won in one week, and he's now going into his fourth year. 再次强调，这并不能让他看起来好。这是一场他本应在一周内赢得的战争，而他现在已经进入了第四年。

That does not make this big so-called war machine look good, and he's assured. 那并不能让这个所谓的庞大战争机器看起来好，而且他已经保证了。

Amit: All right. So, Trump says Modi, the prime minister of India, assured him that they will stop buying oil. Amit: 好的。所以，特朗普说印度总理莫迪向他保证，他们将停止购买石油。

Now, an Indian government source today said two quotes. 现在，一位印度政府消息人士今天说了两句话。

They said where there is a possibility it might be possible to replace any reduction in supplies from Russia with uptake from the US, also known as the Indian government kind of backing up what Trump said, saying that we might stop buying Russian oil and replace it with United States oil. 他们说，在可能的情况下，有可能用美国的供应来弥补俄罗斯供应的任何减少，这也可以理解为印度政府在某种程度上支持特朗普的说法，表示他们可能会停止购买俄罗斯石油，转而购买美国石油。

But that same government source also said that if we were to stop buying oil from Russia, there would be a dramatic increase in electricity prices for Indian residents. 但同一位政府消息人士也表示，如果他们停止购买俄罗斯石油，印度居民的电价将大幅上涨。

And I don't know if Modi is ready to get the political backlash from his own citizens around electricity prices going up, especially when, you know, the vast majority of India is not in some rich elite class, and they're not going to be able to afford a dramatic increase in electricity prices. 我不知道莫迪是否准备好承受来自本国公民因电价上涨而产生的政治反弹，尤其是在印度绝大多数人并非富裕精英阶层的情况下，他们将无法承受电价的大幅上涨。

So look, if Trump is able to get India to stop buying Russian oil, that would significantly increase the odds that maybe Russia doesn't have as much leverage and can, you know, finally come to the negotiating table to put an end to this war with Ukraine because they're not getting finance from India. 所以你看，如果特朗普能让印度停止购买俄罗斯石油，那将大大增加俄罗斯可能没有那么多筹码的可能性，并且可以，你知道，最终回到谈判桌上，结束与乌克兰的战争，因为他们无法从印度获得资金。

But India is also looking out for the 1.4 billion people that they have to deal with. 但印度也在为他们必须应对的14亿人民着想。

Now talking about energy and electricity prices, I mean we were talking about this yesterday. 现在谈到能源和电价，我的意思是，我们昨天就在谈论这个。

So, my power went out five minutes before the market opened, and thankfully it came back. 所以，我的电源在市场开盘前五分钟断了，谢天谢地又恢复了。

And I was joking that a data center took all my power. But it's becoming a thing, folks. 我开玩笑说是一个数据中心把我的电都用完了。但伙计们，这正在成为一个问题。

So, Bloomberg did a report that wholesale electricity costs as much as 267% more than it did five years ago in areas near data centers. 所以，彭博社的一份报告显示，在数据中心附近的地区，批发电力成本比五年前高出267%。

That's being passed on to more customers. 这正转嫁给更多客户。

And you had Chamath right here saying that Google was about to lose a vote by the Indianapolis city council and withdrew a proposal for a $1 billion data center. Chamath在这里说，谷歌差点在印第安纳波利斯市议会的一次投票中失利，并撤回了一项价值10亿美元的数据中心提案。

Microsoft pulled back a similar project in Wisconsin based on a community push back. 微软在威斯康星州也因社区反对而撤回了一个类似的项目。

Are these isolated incidents or beginning of a trend? 这些是孤立事件还是趋势的开始？

If the data below is accurate, then we should expect that more local communities will push back to stop data center buildouts in the region if it spikes electricity prices so much. 如果以下数据准确，那么我们应该预期，如果数据中心建设导致电价飙升如此之高，将有更多当地社区会反对在该地区建设数据中心。

And by the way, if you're a local resident in Indiana and OpenAI says, "We're going to build out a data center," and then you see Sam Altman tweet that we are exploring ways for adult erotica to be the next vertical that we explore on ChatGPT, and you put two and two together and you say, "Holy crap, my electricity prices are going to double because someone wants to make personalized messages coming from some ChatGPT AI for them to engage in in an adult way." 顺便说一句，如果你是印第安纳州的当地居民，而OpenAI说：“我们要建造一个数据中心，”然后你看到Sam Altman发推说，我们正在探索将成人情色内容作为下一个在ChatGPT上探索的垂直领域，你把这两件事联系起来，然后说：“天哪，我的电费要翻倍了，因为有人想让ChatGPT 人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 生成个性化信息，供他们以成人方式进行互动。”

I mean, it becomes unfathomable to believe that that is the use case for AI that is creating an electricity price to go higher. 我的意思是，这变得难以置信，认为这是导致电价上涨的人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 用例。

And that's just the darn truth, right? A lot of people are like, "Okay, we understand the promise of AI, but if that is the reason for our electricity price to go higher, there's no way in hell we're going to allow that to happen." 这就是该死的真相，对吧？很多人会说：“好吧，我们理解人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 的前景，但如果这就是我们电价上涨的原因，我们绝不会允许这种情况发生。”

And so, Chamath's idea, which I agree with right here, is that the hyperscalers should take the electricity costs of local residents to zero and start buying goodwill. 所以，Chamath的观点，我在这里同意，是超大规模企业应该将当地居民的电费降至零，并开始购买好感。

Otherwise, I expect more local communities to push back on these data centers, which will complicate the AI buildout that needs to happen. 否则，我预计会有更多的当地社区反对这些数据中心，这将使需要进行的人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 建设复杂化。

I mean, if big tech is not willing to subsidize the solar farms, the nuclear farms, the oil and gas that is necessary to keep costs tame in a region, and their push to the residents of Indiana or Wisconsin or, "Hey, well, you can summarize your emails faster because of these data centers." 我的意思是，如果大型科技公司不愿意补贴太阳能农场、核能农场、石油和天然气，这些都是在一个地区控制成本所必需的，而他们却向印第安纳州或威斯康星州的居民推广说：“嘿，好吧，你可以因为这些数据中心更快地总结你的电子邮件。”

I mean, a lot of people are going to be upset. I mean, I would be upset, too. 我的意思是，很多人都会不高兴。我的意思是，我也会不高兴。

I think anyone would be upset if a data center is the reason you can't operate your day-to-day because this promise of AI, which you haven't fully even seen play out yet, is one of the reasons for why your electricity price are going higher, especially if it's because of what Sam Altman was talking about. 我认为如果数据中心是导致你无法正常生活的原因，任何人都会感到不满，因为你尚未完全看到人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 的前景就已经导致电价上涨，尤其如果这是Sam Altman所谈论的原因。

So I mean this stuff is really, really important to I think understand long term. 所以我的意思是，我认为从长远来看，这些事情真的非常非常重要。

There's a lot of issues going on right now in Oregon. If you look up Oregon data center push back, you have a variety of different tech companies that are probably trying to set up data centers in Oregon. 俄勒冈州现在有很多问题。如果你查一下俄勒冈州数据中心反对事件，你会发现各种不同的科技公司可能正在尝试在俄勒冈州建立数据中心。

That's, you know, north of San Francisco. California has a bunch of different regulations. 那是在旧金山以北。加州有很多不同的法规。

So, they're trying to go to places that are a bit more laissez-faire. 所以，他们正试图去那些更自由放任的地方。

And I think there's going to be more implications on what happens on these data centers. 我认为这些数据中心的未来会带来更多影响。

So, the promise of AI, as important as it is for all of us as investors, we're also human beings that have to pay the bills. 所以，人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 的前景对我们所有投资者来说固然重要，但我们也是需要支付账单的人。

And, you know, at the end of the day, I don't know if Nvidia's stock is going to be enough for us to deal with massive, massive bills. 而且，你知道，说到底，我不知道英伟达的股票是否足以让我们应对巨额账单。

And if we want to even sell our stocks to to sell electricity bills, but that's not something that can double overnight. 如果我们甚至想卖掉我们的股票来支付电费，但这并不是一夜之间就能翻倍的东西。

And if it does, you know, we're going to have some issues in terms of how this plays out. 如果真的发生了，你知道，我们将在事情如何发展方面遇到一些问题。

However, this is why the energy stocks are continuing to get a bid because again, why doesn't Oklo have a $25 billion market cap and it has no revenue? 然而，这就是为什么能源股持续受到追捧的原因，因为，为什么Oklo没有250亿美元的市值却没有任何营收？

Because people think the revenue is definitely coming if Sam Altman is headfast on making sure that these data centers exist. 因为人们认为，如果山姆·奥尔特曼坚持确保这些数据中心存在，营收肯定会到来。

You're going to need some type of power, and maybe that power comes through nuclear, which is why that stock is going great. 你将需要某种形式的电力，也许这种电力来自核能，这就是为什么那只股票表现出色。

But that's what we got in the context of data centers and the relationship it has to overall what's happening with AI and energy demand. 但这就是我们所了解的数据中心，以及它与人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 和能源需求整体情况的关系。

What you're talking about is what built the internet. Yeah. I mean, look, I it makes sense for what Sam Altman is going after. 你所说的正是构建互联网的基础。是的。我的意思是，Sam Altman追求的东西是有道理的。

Obviously, I think all the AI companies are probably going to go after. 显然，我认为所有人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 公司都会追求这一点。

I just didn't think they would be this explicit about it. 我只是没想到他们会如此明确地表达出来。

I mean, I really didn't think at this state they would be that explicit. 我的意思是，我真的没想到在这个阶段他们会如此明确。

But it goes to show how ruthless OpenAI is because Sam Altman just clarified a tweet about upcoming changes to ChatGPT. 但这表明OpenAI是多么无情，因为Sam Altman刚刚澄清了一条关于ChatGPT即将发生变化的推文。

This tweet about upcoming changes to chat blew up on the erotica point much more than I thought it was going to. 这条关于聊天即将变化的推文在情色内容这一点上引发的轰动远超我的预期。

It was meant to be just one example of us allowing more user freedom for adults. 这只是我们允许成年用户更多自由的一个例子。

Here is an effort to better communicate it. As we have said earlier, we are making a decision to prioritize safety over privacy and freedom for teenagers. 这是为了更好地沟通。正如我们之前所说，我们决定优先考虑青少年的安全，而非隐私和自由。

And we are not loosening any policies related to mental health. 我们不会放松任何与心理健康相关的政策。

This is a new and powerful technology, and we believe we need significant protection. 这是一项新兴且强大的技术，我们认为我们需要提供重要的保护。

We also care very much about the principle of treating adult users like adults. 我们也非常重视将成年用户视为成年人对待的原则。

As AI becomes more important in people's lives, allowing a lot of freedom for people to use AI in the ways that they want is an important part of our mission. 随着人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 在人们生活中变得越来越重要，允许人们自由地以他们想要的方式使用人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 是我们使命的重要组成部分。

He's going super libertarian on that. Dude, whenever you want to justify something, you just go super freedom, liberty, humanity, pursuit of happiness, you go that route and you try to get people to be on board. 他在这方面表现得非常自由主义。伙计，每当你想要为某事辩解时，你就会走向超级自由、解放、人性、追求幸福的路线，然后试图让人们支持你。

It doesn't apply across the board, of course. For example, we will still not allow things that cause harm to others, and we will treat users who are having mental health crisis very different from users who are not. 当然，这并不适用于所有情况。例如，我们仍然不允许做伤害他人的事情，并且我们会以与没有心理健康危机用户截然不同的方式对待那些正在经历心理健康危机的用户。

Without being paternalistic, we will attempt to help users achieve their long-term goals. 我们不会家长式地管理，而是会努力帮助用户实现他们的长期目标。

But we are not the elected moral police of the world. 但我们不是世界选出的道德警察。

In the same way that society differentiates other appropriate boundaries, R-rated movies for example, we want to do a similar thing here. 就像社会对其他适当的界限进行区分一样，例如R级电影，我们在这里也想做类似的事情。

I mean, look, I get it from a libertarian perspective. 我的意思是，你看，我从自由主义的角度理解。

It's just, dude, when you give that type of technology to adults, to the masses, and every adult can have their own personalized version of whatever they want to come up with. 只是，伙计，当你把那种技术交给成年人，交给大众，而每个成年人都可以拥有自己定制的任何他们想要创造的东西时。

I mean, you know, it makes you really think Black Mirror, dystopia, AI relationships. 我的意思是，你知道，这真的会让你想到《黑镜》、反乌托邦、人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 关系。

I don't know if it's good for humanity. It's going to be great for freaking corporate shareholders of OpenAI. 我不知道这对人类是否有益。这对OpenAI的企业股东来说将是非常棒的。

It's going to be great for Nvidia. It's going to be great for AMD. 这对英伟达会很棒。这对AMD会很棒。

It's going to be great for any company that gives the computing power to ChatGPT to operate this stuff. 这对任何为ChatGPT提供计算能力来运行这些服务的公司都将是巨大的利好。

Is it good for humanity? I don't know. I have no idea. 这对人类有益吗？我不知道。我一点也不知道。

But the reason I thought it was kind of weird for this is because the fact that he wants to focus on this when there's so many other verticals of AI that you would think they would go after just shows how much they think this can be a big vertical. 但我觉得这有点奇怪的原因是，当人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 有这么多其他垂直领域，你可能会认为他们会去追求时，他却想专注于此，这恰恰表明他们认为这可以是一个重要的垂直领域。

Not even a big vertical, a massive vertical. 甚至不是一个大垂直领域，而是一个巨大的垂直领域。

And it also shows how ruthless they are, which is that they don't care. They're going to go after anything that makes money. 这也显示了他们多么无情，那就是他们不在乎。他们会追逐任何能赚钱的东西。

And by the way, they kind of need to go after anything that makes money because OpenAI is in the center of everything that's going on with AI. 顺便说一句，他们确实需要追求任何能赚钱的东西，因为OpenAI正处于人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 发展的一切中心。

If they don't make money, if this doesn't work out, we're going to have some issues. 如果他们不赚钱，如果这行不通，我们就会遇到一些问题。

And so, I guess from that perspective, that's why Sam Altman is going for whatever he can go for. 所以，我想从这个角度来看，这就是为什么Sam Altman会尽力争取一切。

So, that is what we've got with OpenAI. 所以，这就是我们从OpenAI那里得到的消息。

Amit: AIT, is Amkor a trade or is it a long-term hold? I mean, look, originally I got into it for a trade, but we're going to see how this ends up playing out. Amit: AIT，安靠是短期交易还是长期持有？我的意思是，看，我最初是为了短期交易而买入的，但我们会看看最终结果如何。

My target is 50 by next year, basically by the I would say from 6 to 12 months, right? 我的目标是明年达到50美元，基本上可以说是在6到12个月内，对吧？

So I think the rerating I think could happen by the middle of next year, more likely towards the end of next year. 所以我认为重新评级可能会在明年年中发生，更可能是在明年年底。

But this TSM news was pretty bullish. I mean again, Amkor is one of the only semiconductor packaging companies in the United States that is working with TSM. 但这条台积电的新闻相当看涨。我的意思是，安靠是美国少数几家与台积电合作的半导体封装公司之一。

They really don't have that much competition. 他们真的没有那么多竞争对手。

They may have one or two other people that are out there, but Amkor is the company working with Apple, Nvidia, the federal government in regards to the Commerce Secretary and the Commerce Department and TSM, which is setting up another fab in Arizona. 他们可能还有一两个竞争对手，但安靠是与苹果、英伟达、联邦政府（商务部长和商务部）以及台积电合作的公司，而台积电正在亚利桑那州建立另一个晶圆厂。

So, look, it trades at one-time sales. You know, it feels relatively cheap for a rerating. 所以，你看，它的交易价格是一倍市销率。你知道，对于重新评级来说，它感觉相对便宜。

I think this thing gets to 50, and you know, if it does, then I think it's a good trade. 我认为这东西能涨到50，而且你知道，如果真的涨了，那么我认为这是一笔不错的交易。

But if TSM just continues to grow, if capex continues to grow, could this thing rerate even further than that? Yeah, but my target right here is 50. 但如果台积电持续增长，如果资本支出持续增长，这东西能否进一步重新估值？是的，但我在这里的目标是50。

And essentially it's a play on the price of sales multiple. 本质上，这是对市销率倍数的押注。

Like some companies use EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization: 息税折旧摊销前利润), some companies use PE (Price-to-Earnings Ratio: 市盈率) for Amkor, use price of sales, and I think, you know, if they double their revenues, they could increase that price sales multiple, and they should do okay. 就像有些公司使用息税折旧摊销前利润 (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization: 息税折旧摊销前利润)，有些公司使用市盈率 (Price-to-Earnings Ratio: 市盈率) 来评估安靠，而安靠使用市销率。我认为，如果他们将营收翻倍，他们可以提高市销率倍数，而且他们应该会表现不错。

I don't see a rerating with packaging. They're going to have to put up real growth. 我没有看到包装行业的重新评级。他们必须实现真正的增长。

I mean, their margins aren't the best. They're going to have to put up real, real growth. 我的意思是，他们的利润率不是最好的。他们必须实现真正的、真正的增长。

But again, when you have the entire administration ready to really introduce the onshoring of manufacturing for semiconductors in the United States, and Amkor is one of a handful of companies that's in that packaging ecosystem. 但再次强调，当整个政府准备好真正推动半导体制造业回流美国时，安靠是少数几家处于该封装生态系统中的公司之一。

That's where I think the growth comes in. So, they're going to have to put up the growth. 我认为增长点就在那里。所以，他们必须实现增长。

If they don't put up the growth, we're not going to get a rerating. 如果他们不实现增长，我们就不会得到重新评级。

But, if they do put up the growth, I think it can be good. 但是，如果他们实现了增长，我认为这会很好。

Speaking of growth, let's take a look at Charles Schwab. 说到增长，我们来看看嘉信理财。

EPS is up 70% year-over-year. They beat by 5%. 131 versus 125. 每股收益 (Earnings Per Share: 每股收益) 同比增长70%。他们超出了5%。1.31美元对1.25美元。

And then revenues up 27% year-over-year. 6.13 billion versus 6.02, they beat by 2%. 然后营收同比增长27%。61.3亿美元对60.2亿美元，他们超出了2%。

市场情绪与投资机会

Grab's earnings call November 3rd. Grab will be on November 3rd. Grab的财报电话会议在11月3日。Grab将在11月3日发布财报。

That first week of November is going to be a pretty wild week, but November 3rd, we'll be there for Grab. 11月的第一周将是相当疯狂的一周，但11月3日，我们会关注Grab。

So, look, Schwab is not a Robin Hood in terms of growth, but I mean, revenue is up almost 30%. 所以，你看，嘉信理财在增长方面不是Robinhood，但我的意思是，营收增长了近30%。

Your EPS is up almost 70%. 你的每股收益 (Earnings Per Share: 每股收益) 上涨了近70%。

First of all, super bullish Hood. I mean, if Schwab is putting up these type of growth numbers, I'm pretty excited for what Hood can put up. 首先，对Robinhood非常看好。我的意思是，如果嘉信理财能拿出这样的增长数据，我对Robinhood能拿出的数据感到非常兴奋。

But second of all, it just shows that the brokerage market is exploding. 但其次，这只是表明券商市场正在爆发。

For those that were not on the market close yesterday, there was a stat that I shared. 对于昨天没有关注收盘市场的人来说，我分享了一个数据。

Some of you guys heard it, some of you guys did not hear it. 你们有些人听到了，有些人没听到。

But I told you guys we were going to get a lot more data on what happened on Friday in regards to investors and if they ended up buying the dip and how that all played out. 但我告诉过你们，我们会得到更多关于周五投资者情况的数据，包括他们是否逢低买入以及这一切是如何演变的。

We got some of that data, and this data is just quite incredible to see. 我们得到了一些数据，这些数据看起来相当惊人。

Last week was the fifth largest increase in single stock inflows in history for the stock market. 上周是股市历史上单只股票资金流入量第五大增长的一周。

Last week when we had that 3% drawdown, also known as stocks went down, and it was the fifth largest time in history people said we're buying the dip. 上周我们经历了3%的回调，也就是说股票下跌了，这是历史上第五次人们说要逢低买入。

And it was the biggest week ever for the stock market when the market was down at least 1%. 这是股市有史以来最大的一周，当时市场至少下跌了1%。

I mean, I what happened on Friday was the market went down, and people said, "Oh, markets are down. I'm going to buy the dip," and people bought the freaking dip. 我的意思是，周五发生的事情是市场下跌了，人们说：“哦，市场下跌了。我要逢低买入，”然后人们就真的逢低买入了。

The biggest week ever for the stock market when it was down at least 1%. 股市有史以来最大的一周，当时市场至少下跌了1%。

I mean, I knew the stats would be kind of crazy last week, but they were crazy. 我的意思是，我知道上周的数据会有点疯狂，但它们确实很疯狂。

And so as a result, if we get another 3% drawdown, I mean, I think you're going to get more people that get excited to buy the dip. 所以结果是，如果我们再经历3%的回调，我的意思是，我认为会有更多人兴奋地逢低买入。

And that is kind of the generation of dip buying that we are currently in. 而这正是我们目前所处的逢低买入一代。

Yeah. Robinhood earnings will be on November 5th. So that first week of November. 是的。Robinhood的财报将在11月5日发布。也就是11月的第一周。

Palantir is also on November 3rd. We're going to have a ton of companies in November. Palantir也在11月3日。11月我们将有很多公司发布财报。

Grab, no updates on Grab. Again, my only update here is I think they're being, I think they're continued to be manipulated. Grab，没有关于Grab的更新。再次强调，我在这里唯一的更新是，我认为他们正在被，我认为他们持续被操纵。

I mean, they're getting price targets across the board. 我的意思是，他们获得了全面的目标价。

We already know Anthony Tan said Q3 is going to be very strong. 我们已经知道Anthony Tan说过第三季度会非常强劲。

I mean, I think Q3 is going to go well. I think it hopefully breaks above that 650 level and stays above it. 我的意思是，我认为第三季度会表现不错。我希望它能突破6.50美元的水平并保持在其上方。

But right now, the shorts are in control. And as long as the shorts are in control, you're not going to see too much of a rerating yet by Grab. 但目前，空头占据主导地位。只要空头控制着局面，Grab的股票就不会有太多的重新评级。

But I think they can give us some good earnings growth, and we can see some momentum going into Q3. 但我认为他们可以给我们带来一些好的盈利增长，我们也可以看到一些势头进入第三季度。

Amazon, again, I continued to buy Amazon. I bought more Amazon yesterday. 亚马逊，再次强调，我继续买入亚马逊。我昨天又买了一些亚马逊。

I did an entire segment on Amazon yesterday on the daily recap, so you guys can watch that to kind of get my full thoughts. 我昨天在每日回顾中专门做了一期关于亚马逊的节目，所以你们可以去看看，了解我的完整想法。

But I, I'm thinking of Amazon as just like it's safe. It's not that risky. 但我把亚马逊看作是安全的。它没有那么大的风险。

It trades at a 56% EV/EBITDA (Enterprise Value to Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization: 企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润) multiple discount. 它的企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润 (Enterprise Value to Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization: 企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润) 倍数折价为56%。

The average EV/EBITDA for the Mac 7 is 40. Amazon is at 17. “七巨头”的平均企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润是40。亚马逊是17。

I mean, like it's just not that scary. And it's freaking Amazon. 我的意思是，它没那么可怕。而且它可是亚马逊。

Like, also the other thing I was thinking about last night, and this I, I didn't get to talk about this on the daily recap because I forgot the robotics inflection on operating margins is something that I don't think we're talking about enough. 就像，我昨晚还在想另一件事，这个我在每日回顾中没能谈到，因为我忘了机器人技术对营业利润率的影响，我觉得我们谈论得不够多。

Amazon is a like beast when it comes, they're a behemoth in the industry of robotics. 亚马逊在机器人行业简直是巨头，是一个庞然大物。

I don't know if they're going to get that deep into humanoid robotics. 我不知道他们是否会深入到人形机器人领域。

But as robotics continue to scale and as AI makes robotics even more efficient, operating margins should increase, and the inflection on robotics on the actual commerce business itself, not even just AWS. 但随着机器人技术持续规模化，以及人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 使机器人更加高效，营业利润率应该会提高，机器人技术对实际电商业务本身的影响，甚至不仅仅是AWS。

You know, Amazon does a lot of revenue. If they increase their margins even by half a percentage point every quarter or every year, you're talking about tens of billions of dollars of net income coming back to the bottom line, which should increase that PE (Price-to-Earnings Ratio: 市盈率) multiple. 你知道，亚马逊的营收很高。如果他们每个季度或每年哪怕只提高0.5个百分点的利润率，你就会看到数百亿美元的净利润回到公司账本，这应该会提高市盈率 (Price-to-Earnings Ratio: 市盈率) 。

So, I have zero fear in buying Amazon at these levels. 所以，我在这些价位买入亚马逊毫无畏惧。

I don't even care if it's stuck at 216 by the end of the year. 我甚至不在乎它是否在年底停留在216美元。

Like I'm not buying Amazon to see the stock go up in the short term. I'm really not. 我买亚马逊并不是为了看到股价短期上涨。我真的不是。

And I think a lot of people that are getting into this name probably shouldn't have that perspective. 我认为很多进入这个股票的人可能不应该持有这种观点。

If it does go up, great. But I think you should be buying it because it's a great opportunity. 如果它确实上涨了，那很好。但我认为你购买它应该是因为这是一个很好的机会。

And over the long term, you know, Amazon's probably going to be much more valuable than it is right now. 从长远来看，你知道，亚马逊的价值可能会比现在高得多。

So that's why I like Amazon. Micron got an increase on their price target 225 to 245. 这就是我喜欢亚马逊的原因。美光（Micron）的目标价从225美元上调至245美元。

Okay. Micron continuing to get some love from the street. 好的。美光继续受到市场的青睐。

I mean, this stock was hated for like five months. And look at that, breaking 200 pre-markets. 我的意思是，这只股票被厌恶了大约五个月。看看，盘前突破了200美元。

Let me know if you own Micron. Is this an all-time high for Micron? 告诉我你是否持有美光。这是美光的历史新高吗？

Yeah. Wow. All-time high for Micron. Went public back in the 90s, breaking 200 right here. 是的。哇。美光的历史新高。它在90年代上市，现在在这里突破200美元。

The TSM demand is probably a tailwind for them. Up 4% getting new price targets. 台积电的需求可能是他们的顺风。上涨4%并获得新的目标价。

And Micron continuing to go green. So, not too bad right there. 美光继续上涨。所以，那里还不错。

Meta poached another one of Apple's executives for search. Meta挖走了苹果的另一位负责搜索业务的高管。

So, one of the head people working on Siri for search quit, and his name is Key Yang. 所以，一位负责Siri搜索业务的负责人辞职了，他名叫Key Yang。

He joined weeks ago as the head of Apple's answers and now he has left for Meta. 几周前，他作为苹果答案部门的负责人加入，现在他已经离职去了Meta。

It was a team called AKI, Apple's answer, knowledge, and information team to spearhead a ChatGPT like AI search. 那是一个名为AKI的团队，即苹果的答案、知识和信息团队，旨在主导类似ChatGPT的人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 搜索。

Yeah, he left for he left for Meta. 是的，他去了Meta。

I don't know, Meta's just finding a way to get all these people. 我不知道，Meta就是有办法把所有这些人都招募过来。

I don't know how much money they're giving. I don't know if this is super bullish Meta or if this is just super bearish Apple. 我不知道他们给了多少钱。我不知道这对Meta来说是超级利好，还是对苹果来说是超级利空。

But Meta finds a way to reward these people with some type of compensation package and get them to be excited to leave. 但Meta总能找到办法用某种薪酬方案奖励这些人，让他们兴奋地选择离开。

And as a result, a lot more people are choosing to leave. All right, folks. Here we go. 结果，越来越多的人选择离开。好了，各位。我们开始吧。

Thank you everybody for being here. It is Thursday, October 16th, 9:30 a.m. 谢谢大家前来。今天是10月16日星期四上午9:30。

Thank you all again for being here. The stock market is once again open. 再次感谢大家的到来。股市再次开盘。

S&P 500 (Standard & Poor's 500: 标普500指数) 667 up 28%. We were at 670 yesterday, and then we lost it after some of the descent comments on China. 标普500指数 (Standard & Poor's 500: 标普500指数) 上涨28%，达到667点。我们昨天在670点，然后在中国问题的一些负面评论后下跌了。

So let's see if we can regain that today. I mean again, we were at 647 last Friday. 所以我们看看今天能否收复失地。我的意思是，上周五我们还在647点。

So the fact that we are even above 665 is super bullish, but that's up about 26% on the day. 所以我们现在能超过665点，这非常看涨，但今天已经上涨了大约26%。

Hoodie 13507 that's up about 75%. Palantir that's up 1.4%. Nvidia that's up half a percent. Hoodie股票上涨约75%，达到13507点。Palantir上涨1.4%。英伟达上涨0.5%。

Tesla that's basically flat. Tesla had a nice 4% move yesterday. 特斯拉基本持平。特斯拉昨天有4%的不错涨幅。

435 right there on Tesla. Not moving too much. 特斯拉股价435美元。没有太大波动。

Grab right there is up about 42%. Google's up half a percent. Grab上涨约42%。谷歌上涨0.5%。

SoFi goes red. Weird. SoFi goes red. Shopify's flying. Shopify is up 5%. SoFi变红了。奇怪。SoFi变红了。Shopify飞涨。Shopify上涨5%。

Not sure why. There's got to be some partnership on Shopify that's causing that. 不确定原因。Shopify肯定有什么合作导致了这种上涨。

So, we'll see if we can get the headline, but Shopify right there. 所以，我们会看看能否获得头条新闻，但Shopify就在那里。

Is that No, that's not all-time highs. But that's the last time Shopify was at this level. 那是吗？不，那不是历史新高。但那是Shopify上次达到这个水平的时候。

November 22nd, 2021. So, it's taken about four years to get back here. 2021年11月22日。所以，花了大约四年才回到这里。

But, Shopify right there 163. Reddit, that's up 1.3. 但是，Shopify目前股价163美元。Reddit上涨1.3%。

Amazon, that's up half a percent. Meta, that is up a little bit right now. 亚马逊上涨0.5%。Meta现在略有上涨。

PayPal, that is also green. ELF, that's up 1.2. PayPal也上涨了。ELF上涨1.2%。

Apple's actually down potentially on that Meta news of someone leaving Apple for Meta. 苹果实际上可能因为Meta挖走苹果员工的消息而下跌。

247, that's down about 1%. SMCI, that's up 1.2. 247美元，下跌约1%。SMCI上涨1.2%。

Where is Amkor? That stock is up 4.7%, 3277, so that's about 5% green on the day. 安靠在哪里？那只股票上涨了4.7%，达到3277，所以今天大约上涨了5%。

Microsoft, that's up half a percent. Enphase is up almost 1%. 微软上涨0.5%。Enphase上涨近1%。

Where is BMR? Are we at 52? We are at 55. Not bad. That's up 3%. BMR在哪里？我们在52吗？我们在55。不错。上涨3%。

All right, BitMine getting some love. Rocket Lab, that's up 2%. 好的，BitMine受到了一些青睐。Rocket Lab上涨2%。

Rocket Lab, dare I say it, dare I say it. Is it normalizing above 70? Rocket Lab，我敢说，我敢说。它是否正在70美元以上正常化？

I mean, it's it's literally only been a couple days, but who knows? 我的意思是，这实际上才几天，但谁知道呢？

If it normalizes above 70, that would be incredible for shareholders. 如果它能稳定在70美元以上，那对股东来说将是不可思议的。

CoreWeave 14128, that's up 1.4. Archer, that's up 4.3%. GME, that's flat. CoreWeave股价141.28美元，上涨1.4%。Archer上涨4.3%。GME持平。

Intel is down about half a percent on the day. Tesla now goes red. 英特尔今天下跌约0.5%。特斯拉现在转红。

Tesla officially goes red. Rocket Lab is still up. Palantir is up half a percent or up 1%. 特斯拉正式转红。Rocket Lab仍在上涨。Palantir上涨0.5%或1%。

Robin Hood up 1.3. AS Space Mobile 9629 that's up half a percent as well. Robinhood上涨1.3%。AS Space Mobile上涨0.5%，达到96.29美元。

You have some pretty good green momentum. Rare earth companies are all green except LAC and USAR. 你有一些不错的上涨势头。除了LAC和USAR，稀土公司都上涨了。

So kind of a little bit of a mixed bag right there. Some of them are green, some of them are red. 所以那里有点喜忧参半。有些上涨，有些下跌。

If we look at the Bitcoin miners turn data centers, they are all red except Terawulf, IREN, and Galaxy. 如果我们看比特币矿商转为数据中心的公司，除了Terawulf、IREN和Galaxy，它们都下跌了。

Riot, Marathon, Bitfarms. Wow, Bitfarms's down 9%. Riot、Marathon、Bitfarms。哇，Bitfarms下跌了9%。

Bitfarms did dilute by 300 million yesterday. So that could be the reason why those guys are getting hit. Bitfarms昨天稀释了3亿美元。所以这可能是这些公司受到打击的原因。

But, you know that stock's still up from 250. CleanSpark as well 3.3. 但是，你知道那只股票仍然从250美元上涨。CleanSpark也上涨了3.3%。

Now, American Battery Technology Company, these guys are down 30% because they filed an 8K saying that they lost a grant from the Department of Energy. 现在，美国电池技术公司（American Battery Technology Company），这些公司下跌了30%，因为他们提交了一份8K文件，称他们失去了能源部的拨款。

Again, some of these names that have just gone nuclear, like if they have any piece of bad news that affects the company, then their stocks are going to get hit pretty badly. 再次强调，一些最近表现出色的公司，如果遇到任何影响公司的坏消息，它们的股票就会受到严重打击。

And that's what you're seeing with American Battery Technology. That one's down about 31% on the day. 你看到的美国电池技术公司就是这样。那只股票今天下跌了大约31%。

SoundHound right there. That's green. That's up 2.8%. SoundHound就在那里。上涨了。上涨2.8%。

Is Oscar running? Oscar back above 21. Okay, that's up three and a half%. Oscar在上涨吗？Oscar回到21美元以上。好的，上涨了3.5%。

This one did get to 25 at one point. Now that stock is at 21. 这只股票一度达到25美元。现在股价是21美元。

LAC dropping for the third day in a row. Again, LAC I think is also just tired. LAC连续第三天下跌。再次强调，LAC我觉得也只是累了。

A lot of these stocks are just exhausted. Like Robin Hood's another name. 很多这些股票都筋疲力尽了。比如Robinhood是另一个例子。

Like Robin Hood's exhausted. This thing went from 120 to 50. 就像Robinhood已经筋疲力尽了。这东西从120跌到50。

Realistically went from 97 to 150 in three weeks. 实际上在三周内从97涨到150。

I mean, sometimes it gets exhausted. You get the buyers that just don't want to be buying as easily. 我的意思是，有时它会筋疲力尽。买家就不那么容易买入了。

You get the options market chilling out a little bit. 期权市场也稍微冷静了一下。

So, I think some of these names also are just taking a bit of a breather. 所以，我认为其中一些股票也只是稍微喘口气。

AMD right there, 237, that's down half a percent. SoFi, I don't know why this is down. AMD就在那里，237美元，下跌0.5%。SoFi，我不知道为什么它下跌了。

I feel like SoFi should be up. I don't know what's going on, but SoFi's down. 我觉得SoFi应该上涨。我不知道发生了什么，但SoFi下跌了。

Salesforce, are you getting a move? You're getting a move. Up almost 7% on Mr. Salesforce again. Salesforce，你有什么动静吗？你有了动静。Salesforce先生又上涨了近7%。

They announced $60 billion in revenues for 2030. 他们宣布2030年营收将达到600亿美元。

So they gave guidance for five years, and they announced that they would get to a Rule of 40 or Rule of 50. 所以他们给出了五年的指导，并宣布他们将达到“40法则”或“50法则”。

So some positive metrics on Salesforce, and that's why that stock is going green up 7% on the day. 所以Salesforce有一些积极的指标，这就是为什么那只股票今天上涨了7%。

BMR are we pushing 56? We might. 5541 as ETH is above 40. BMR我们能冲到56吗？也许能。以太坊在40美元以上，BMR是55.41美元。

So that one's going green. SLNH, another name in these data center plays. 所以那只股票上涨了。SLNH，这些数据中心概念股中的另一个名字。

That's up another 14% breaking through $4. 它又上涨了14%，突破了4美元。

I mean, look, we talked about I I don't have a position in this, but we talked about this when it was like a $1.50. 我的意思是，你看，我们讨论过这个，我没有持仓，但我们在它大约1.50美元的时候讨论过。

It was just it was too small for me to want to make an investment in. 它太小了，我不愿投资。

I didn't know enough about it, but it could be one of the next players that's pivotal in data centers. 我对此了解不多，但它可能是数据中心领域下一个关键的参与者之一。

I think also its small share price is getting a lot of attraction. 我认为它的低股价也吸引了很多关注。

A lot of people are just excited because it's a couple bucks, but, you know, the question is if the company can actually execute in regards to helping build out these data centers. 很多人只是因为价格便宜而兴奋，但问题是公司能否真正执行，帮助建设这些数据中心。

But that stock right here is up about 12% on the day. 但那只股票今天上涨了大约12%。

Jim Chanos continues to be bearish on IREN. Jim Chanos is bearish on a lot of names right now. Jim Chanos继续看空IREN。Jim Chanos目前看空很多股票。

I did see his tweet yesterday that he thinks IREN. 我昨天确实看到了他的推文，他认为IREN。

I mean, I don't think he says it's a Ponzi, but he basically says that these numbers and these valuations make no sense based on what they're doing, and he doesn't believe in their GPU licensing, all that stuff. 我的意思是，我不认为他说这是一个庞氏骗局，但他基本上说这些数字和估值根据他们正在做的事情来看毫无意义，而且他不相信他们的图形处理器 (Graphics Processing Unit: 图形处理器) 授权等等。

Now, granted, Chanos is bearish a lot of stuff, but he is not the most optimistic for IREN. 当然，Chanos看空很多东西，但他对IREN并不是最乐观的。

IREN right there down about 2.29% on the day. Is Navitas moving? Are we above 15? Are we above 15? IREN今天下跌约2.29%。Navitas在动吗？我们超过15美元了吗？我们超过15美元了吗？

Wow, it's above 16. That I think might be a little bit of a short squeeze because obviously the announcement they had on earnings was super bullish. 哇，它超过16美元了。我认为这可能有点空头挤压，因为显然他们关于财报的公告非常看涨。

And that helped them out or sorry, not the earnings announcement, the Nvidia announcement, but it was already up 40% for it to go up another 20%. 这帮助了他们，哦不，抱歉，不是财报公告，是英伟达的公告，但它已经上涨了40%，又上涨了20%。

That might be the shorts being squeezed. Yeah, this stock is short 28.25%. 那可能是空头被挤压了。是的，这只股票的空头仓位占28.25%。

This is probably a squeeze. This is probably a little bit of a squeeze. 这可能是一次逼空。这可能是一次小幅逼空。

Navitas right there 1680. That's up 10.5% on the day. Navitas股价16.80美元。今天上涨10.5%。

Uber launches data tasks as an option for some US drivers to earn money. 优步推出数据任务，作为部分美国司机赚钱的选择。

Okay, looks like Uber is trying to diversify some of their business model to help drivers make more revenue. 好的，看起来优步正试图使其部分商业模式多样化，以帮助司机获得更多收入。

Uber right there 94.93. That stock's still green on the day. 优步股价94.93美元。那只股票今天仍然上涨。

We got a new Bank of America survey. Fund managers entered Friday's downturn at their most bullish stance in eight months, which makes sense because usually when everyone's bullish, you get a downturn. 我们收到了一份新的美国银行调查。基金经理在周五的下跌中，以八个月来最看涨的姿态入市，这很合理，因为通常当所有人都看涨时，就会出现下跌。

So, but if you look at the other data from Bank of America saying that, you know, it was the biggest week in stock market history for single stock inflows when the market was down at least 1%. 所以，如果你看看美国银行的其他数据，说当市场至少下跌1%时，上周是股市历史上单只股票资金流入量最大的一周。

It goes to show those same funds that was not just retail, by the way. That was the entire market. 这表明那些同样的资金，顺便说一句，不仅仅是散户。那是整个市场。

So that just shows that retail and institutional investors bought the freaking dip, and they bought it decisively. 所以这表明散户和机构投资者都果断地逢低买入了。

So that's what we got there. Robin Hood right here 13568 and then you got Palantir 180.31. 所以这就是我们得到的结果。Robinhood在这里是135.68美元，然后Palantir是180.31美元。

That is also green. Oscar short float is also 20%. Yes, that could create a little bit more of a squeeze. 那也是上涨的。Oscar的空头持仓比率 (Short Interest Ratio: 空头持仓比率) 也是20%。是的，这可能会造成一点点更大的挤压。

The problem with Oscar is what if Trump and the Democrats and the shutdown announced something that is not the most bullish for healthcare subsidies? Oscar的问题是，如果特朗普和民主党以及政府停摆宣布了一些对医疗补贴不利的消息怎么办？

Again, maybe that's not going to be a concern, but that is, I mean, as quick as the stock goes up, it can go down if you get some piece of news that's not the most exciting. 再次强调，这可能不是一个问题，但我的意思是，股票涨得有多快，如果出现一些不太令人兴奋的消息，它就能跌得多快。

Now, granted, I think the bulls are in favor here of getting the extension on the subsidies. 当然，我认为多头在这里倾向于获得补贴的延期。

But that's just the one risk I think I would watch out for when it comes to Oscar. 但这只是我认为在Oscar方面需要注意的一个风险。

Navitas right there 182 that is green. Why is SoFi down 1%? Who is selling off SoFi here? Navitas股价182美元，上涨。为什么SoFi下跌1%？谁在这里卖出SoFi？

Not was just on Mad Money yesterday. He didn't say anything that I thought was bearish. 昨天刚上过《Mad Money》。他没说任何我觉得利空的话。

I feel like it's a fake out before earnings. I mean, SoFi tends to do this. 我觉得这是财报前的假突破。我的意思是，SoFi经常这样做。

You got earnings in about a week. I don't know. That's weird. 你大约一周后就要公布财报了。我不知道。这很奇怪。

That is weird in a market where you got a lot of names that are high flying, and SoFi has really not made a move in the past month or two. 在一个有很多高飞股票的市场中，这很奇怪，而SoFi在过去一两个月里真的没有什么动静。

It is weird for that one to be stuck. AppLovin still back below 600. Circle that's down 1% or that's up 1%. 它停滞不前很奇怪。AppLovin仍然在600美元以下。Circle下跌1%或者上涨1%。

Microsoft is flat. Palo Alto's up 1.4. Micro Strategy back above 300. 微软持平。Palo Alto上涨1.4%。微策略（Micro Strategy）回到300美元以上。

That is also green. SoFi announced an AWS partnership. 那也是上涨的。SoFi宣布与AWS合作。

Well, that's not going to get the stock to move that much. 嗯，那不会让股价涨那么多。

But I just think if you think rates are coming down end of year, and these, I mean, like the other reason it's so surprising is because the banks have absolutely demolished earnings. 但我只是觉得，如果你认为年底利率会下降，而这些，我的意思是，另一个令人惊讶的原因是银行的财报表现绝对惊人。

So it's like SoFi still is a bank at the end of the day. 所以，SoFi终究还是一家银行。

They're probably going to have really good earnings, but it's almost like the market doesn't fully, fully believe it yet. 他们可能会有非常好的财报，但市场似乎还没有完全、完全相信。

I mean, look at KeyBank, another earnings regional bank. Look at this. 我的意思是，看看KeyBank，另一家地区银行的财报。看看这个。

EPS is up 37% year-over-year. They beat by 8%. 每股收益 (Earnings Per Share: 每股收益) 同比增长37%。他们超出了8%。

Revenue (营收) is up 173% year-over-year. They beat by 1% of revenue, 1.89 billion versus 1.88. 营收 (营收) 同比增长173%。他们超出了1%的营收，18.9亿美元对18.8亿美元。

I mean, you're talking about banks that are absolutely crushing it. 我的意思是，你谈论的是那些表现绝对出色的银行。

So, I don't think SoFi would do the verse. Archer acquired some of Lilium's intellectual property yesterday, which is why Archer got the bid. 所以，我不认为SoFi会反其道而行之。Archer昨天收购了Lilium的一些知识产权，这就是Archer获得竞标的原因。

It's up another 9.5% right here. 它在这里又上涨了9.5%。

So I mean, look, if you're bullish on Archer ultimately acquiring and consolidating in the eVTOL (Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing: 电动垂直起降飞行器) space, then that's bullish. 所以我的意思是，你看，如果你看好Archer最终在电动垂直起降飞行器 (Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing: 电动垂直起降飞行器) 领域进行收购和整合，那么这就是利好。

Archer right here now up 47% year to date, up another 9% right here. Archer目前今年以来上涨47%，在这里又上涨了9%。

If Archer can just get some of these prototypes out into the real world, I think that would create a lot more investor confidence. 如果Archer能将其中一些原型机投入实际应用，我认为那将大大增加投资者的信心。

But there's a passionate retail base that believes in what they're doing, and, you know, that's why they're catching a bid right here. 但有一群热情的散户基础相信他们正在做的事情，而且，你知道，这就是他们在这里受到追捧的原因。

Joby as well that's up 6% on the day. So both those eVTOLs going green. Joby今天也上涨了6%。所以这两只电动垂直起降飞行器股票都在上涨。

Is IREN going down? IREN is getting hit down 5%. IREN在下跌吗？IREN下跌了5%。

Again, I think it's exhausted. I think it's exhausted, and you can't be upset, and this is advice to myself as well. 再次强调，我觉得它已经筋疲力尽了。我觉得它已经筋疲力尽了，你不能生气，这也是给自己的建议。

If you bought IREN at 74 yesterday, you cannot be upset at anyone other than yourself. 如果你昨天在74美元买入IREN，除了你自己，你不能对任何人感到不满。

You cannot blame the market. You cannot blame IREN CEO. You got to blame yourself. 你不能责怪市场。你不能责怪IREN的首席执行官。你必须责怪自己。

And I, you know, I've said the same thing to myself when I bought into strength on a company and then it goes down 10%. 而且我，你知道，当我买入一家强势公司然后它下跌10%时，我也对自己说过同样的话。

It's like, well, that's my fault because after a stock goes up 6x, maybe you stay away for a little bit and wait for a better opportunity. 就像，那是我的错，因为一只股票上涨了6倍之后，也许你应该暂时远离，等待更好的机会。

It just is what it is. Now, that doesn't mean IREN can't get back to 75. 它就是这样。现在，这不意味着IREN不能回到75。

It's just the one thing about these high flyers is once they lose momentum, they've got to get it back. 这些高涨股票的一个特点是，一旦失去势头，它们就必须重新找回。

And sometimes there might not be anything fundamental to give it back to them. 有时可能没有任何基本面因素能让它们恢复。

And look, if IREN ends the year at 50, it's still up 400% for the year. 而且你看，如果IREN年底收于50美元，它今年仍然上涨了400%。

It's like just no one can be upset at that. 就像，没人能对此感到不满。

If Robin Hood ends the year at 125 instead of 150, no one can be upset. 如果Robinhood年底收于125美元而不是150美元，没人会不满。

I refuse to be upset at that. It's still up 3x in a year instead of 3.2x. 我拒绝为此感到不满。它仍然在一年内上涨了3倍，而不是3.2倍。

Like, what are we talking about? So the question simply becomes then, do you buy the dip if you, if you kind of bought the short-term top or do you exit and take the loss, and that comes down to how much you, you fully understand the company. 就像，我们在说什么？所以问题就变成了，如果你买了短期高点，你是逢低买入还是止损退出，这取决于你对公司有多了解。

I bet did you see the Palantir appearance on South Park? Yes, Palantir has officially made it if they're getting on South Park. 我敢打赌你看到Palantir在《南方公园》里出场了吗？是的，如果他们上了《南方公园》，Palantir就正式成功了。

I mean, it's becoming a cultural phenomenon at the end of the day. 我的意思是，说到底，它正在成为一种文化现象。

Palo Alto right there 209 Micro Strategy at 299 Microsoft at 513 and then Enphase at 3780. Palo Alto股价209美元，微策略299美元，微软513美元，然后Enphase3780美元。

All the Bitcoin miners are dumping. Yeah, you're right. Look at that left-hand side of my screen. All of them getting hit. 所有比特币矿商都在抛售。是的，你说得对。看看我屏幕的左侧。所有这些公司都受到了打击。

That's actually weird because TSM's earnings were so bullish. You would think that these guys continue to move. 这其实很奇怪，因为台积电的财报非常看涨。你可能会认为这些公司会继续上涨。

But then again, they're all up. Literally all of them are up 3 to 4x in the past six months, seven months. 但话又说回来，它们都上涨了。过去六七个月，它们几乎都上涨了3到4倍。

Some of them up eight to 9x. So they're taking a breather. 其中一些上涨了8到9倍。所以它们正在喘息。

Now again, we're going to need a couple days of data to see if the Bitcoin miners are structurally selling off or if this is just an exhaustion period where again stocks don't go up every single day and they need to take a breather. 现在再次强调，我们需要几天的数据来观察比特币矿商是否正在结构性抛售，或者这是否只是一个疲惫期，因为股票不会每天都上涨，它们需要喘口气。

I think it'll take probably another week to see if this trend continues. 我认为可能还需要一周才能看出这种趋势是否会继续。

But you know, if the trend is to the downside, it definitely could get a little ugly. 但你知道，如果趋势是下跌的，那肯定会有点难看。

But if it reverses tomorrow or on Monday, then you might see some of that not be as bad. 但如果它在明天或周一反转，那么你可能会看到情况没有那么糟糕。

The healthiest thing to happen, I think, for the Bitcoin miners is that they take a 10% hit and then they start consolidating in their range, which is super normal, right? 我认为对比特币矿商来说最健康的事情是，它们下跌10%，然后开始在自己的区间内盘整，这非常正常，对吧？

Stock goes up 5x, takes a 10, 15% hit, and then it just consolidates. 股票上涨5倍，然后下跌10-15%，然后就盘整。

So, you don't lose your gains if you bought in early. You're not going to get a lot more gains, but at least you don't lose it. 所以，如果你早期买入，你就不会失去你的收益。你不会获得更多收益，但至少你不会失去它。

And I think for a lot of people that got early in something, you just don't want to lose it, right? 而且我认为对于很多人来说，如果他们早期投资了某个东西，他们只是不想失去它，对吧？

Especially if you're not willing to sell it. And I think that's really important. 特别是如果你不愿意出售它。我认为这非常重要。

Wow. Google 255. Is that an all-time high? 哇。谷歌255美元。那是历史新高吗？

256 is the all-time high. It is very close to 256 for an all-time high. 256美元是历史最高点。它非常接近256美元的历史最高点。

Let me do the resistance levels on Google and see what we've got going on here. 让我看看谷歌的阻力位，看看这里发生了什么。

Google 256. Let's see if we get it. Resistance is 10,000 shares. 谷歌256。让我们看看能否达到。阻力位是10,000股。

10,000 shares. I mean that's not going to be too hard to beat up there. 10,000股。我的意思是，在那里要击败它不会太难。

Viewer: Amit, "I watched a mediocre heist movie last night, and the detective said to Palantir the evidence to find the robbers." Is that a recent movie or is that an old movie? 观众: Amit，“我昨晚看了一部平庸的抢劫电影，侦探说要用Palantir来分析证据，找出劫匪。”那是最近的电影还是老电影？

Amit: That'd be crazy. I mean, I guess Palantir is really becoming a part of culture. Amit: 那太疯狂了。我的意思是，我想Palantir真的正在成为文化的一部分。

256 on Google. That's going to be the high. We're going to see if we get there. 谷歌股价256美元。那将是高点。我们会看看能否达到。

TSM is red after they beat on earnings. Again. Same thing like the Bitcoin miners. 台积电在财报超出预期后又下跌了。和比特币矿商一样。

TSM is up 55% for the year. Like a lot of this stuff is priced in. 台积电今年上涨了55%。很多东西都已经计入价格了。

So, you're not I mean, the fact that TSM is down 27 cents today. 所以，你不是，我的意思是，台积电今天下跌了27美分。

If you bought TSM at 170, 180, 200, 250, you know, yes, it's not up 10%. 如果你在170、180、200、250美元买入台积电，你知道，是的，它没有上涨10%。

You're not super, super happy, but you're also not hopefully super mad because you're not losing these key levels because the growth continues to be a reason for why the stock should get a multiple even if the multiple doesn't expand. 你不会非常非常开心，但你也不会非常非常生气，因为你没有失去这些关键水平，因为增长仍然是股票应该获得倍数的原因，即使倍数没有扩大。

I just think a lot of stocks are exhausted. A lot of names are exhausted. 我只是觉得很多股票都筋疲力尽了。很多股票都筋疲力尽了。

Now, the quantum names don't know what exhaustion feels like. These guys just keep going higher. 现在，量子股不知道疲惫是什么感觉。这些股票就是一直上涨。

D-Wave is down about 2% on the day, but, you know, that's really nothing for D-Wave. D-Wave今天下跌了大约2%，但是，你知道，这对D-Wave来说真的不算什么。

So, I guess the only name the quantum stocks are like David Goggins. 所以，我想唯一的量子股就像David Goggins。

Have you ever seen a clip of David Goggins running? They don't get tired. 你见过David Goggins跑步的片段吗？他们从不疲惫。

They don't get tired. I mean, what do you mean when I say resistance is 10,000 shares? 他们不会感到疲惫。我的意思是，当我说阻力位是10,000股时，你是什么意思？

So, on the order book flow for NASDAQ (纳斯达克) Level Two data, you can see how many shares are waiting to be sold at a certain level. 因此，在纳斯达克 (纳斯达克) 二级数据订单流中，你可以看到有多少股票正在等待在某个价位被卖出。

So, on Google, there's 11,540 shares waiting to be sold at 256, which means someone has to buy those 11,500 shares at 256 in order for the stock to be above 256, right? 所以，在谷歌上，有11,540股股票等待在256美元卖出，这意味着必须有人以256美元买入这11,500股，股价才能突破256美元，对吗？

There has to be a bidder at those levels for the stock to increase. 在这些价位必须有买家，股票才能上涨。

And that's what I mean by that. But Google's getting pretty freaking close. 我就是这个意思。但谷歌已经非常接近了。

8 cents away. 8 cents away to get there. 还差8美分。还差8美分就能达到。

You can add a widget on your legend to see the ladder. Sellers and buyers on. 你可以在图例中添加一个小部件，查看阶梯。卖家和买家都在上面。

Oh, really? Oh, wow. I don't know. Okay, I'm going to look into that after the open. 哦，真的吗？哦，哇。我不知道。好的，开盘后我会研究一下。

That would actually be really easy so that you guys can see it at the same time I can see it. 那样会非常容易，你们就能和我同时看到它了。

Okay, that's really cool. All right, there you go. 256. 256 on the googs. There it is. 好的，那真的很酷。好的，就是这样。256。谷歌股价256美元。就是它。

There it is. 25611 on the googs. All-time highs. 就是它。谷歌股价256.11美元。历史新高。

Amazon up 1% as well. 21784. 亚马逊也上涨1%。217.84美元。

Google breaking through 256. I mean, dude, is 260 next? 谷歌突破256美元。我的意思是，伙计，下一个是260美元吗？

Are we about to start really normalizing the 250s? Maybe. 我们是不是要开始真正将250美元区间常态化了？也许吧。

Maybe that's what we are going to see. But Google right there 256 that is also green. 也许这就是我们将要看到的。但是谷歌股价256美元，也上涨了。

Nvidia that's up 1.4%. S&P 500 that's up 0.38%. Palantir that's up 1.2. 英伟达上涨1.4%。标普500指数 (Standard & Poor's 500: 标普500指数) 上涨0.38%。Palantir上涨1.2%。

That is also green. And we are getting some love right now. 那也是上涨的。我们现在得到了一些关注。

SMCI is that also running? SMCI. Wow. 2.7%. SMCI也在上涨吗？SMCI。哇。2.7%。

All right. SMCI also 3% running. Chris should be on today on the close or for our macro Thursdays. 好的。SMCI也上涨了3%。Chris今天应该会出现在收盘节目或我们的宏观周四节目中。

So, we couldn't do it last week because I was getting my root canal, but we should be able to do it this week. 所以，我们上周没能做，因为我做了根管治疗，但我们这周应该能做。

So, still down half percent. Google's still up too. 25 2630. Wow. 所以，仍然下跌0.5%。谷歌也仍然上涨。256.30美元。哇。

Yeah, Google's definitely trying to go for 257. Resistance at 257 is 4,600 shares. 是的，谷歌肯定在努力冲击257美元。257美元的阻力位是4,600股。

Yeah, I mean, it looks like she wants to go higher. Shout out to Austin. Shout out to Benny. 是的，我的意思是，看起来它想涨得更高。向Austin致敬。向Benny致敬。

These guys in the chat have been preaching the Google thesis since the low 150s. 聊天室里的这些家伙从150美元低点就开始宣扬谷歌的投资理念。

Zold, if he's here, they've been saying it. They've been saying it for a while. Zold，如果他在这里，他们一直在说。他们已经说了一段时间了。

Google is a buy, and for those that got in it done very well. 谷歌是一只值得买入的股票，对于那些买入的人来说，表现非常好。

AS right there up 2.3. Uber's up half a percent. And then Meta is still up 1% as well. AS上涨2.3%。优步上涨0.5%。然后Meta也仍然上涨1%。

Let's see if we get any data today economically. Government's still shut down. 让我们看看今天是否能获得任何经济数据。政府仍然关闭。

By the way, Kali has them at November 16th for a reopening, which is going to take some time, but that would be the longest shutdown ever. 顺便说一句，Kali预计他们将在11月16日重新开放，这将需要一些时间，但那将是有史以来最长的停摆。

No, we're not getting that much data. We get some Fed talk today, but not that much data. 不，我们没有那么多数据。今天有一些美联储的讲话，但数据不多。

Are we at 257 already? Are we at 257? 我们已经到257了吗？我们到257了吗？

It's very close to 25680. 25680 to get to 25. 它非常接近256.80。256.80才能达到25。

I don't see it hit yet. It didn't hit yet on Legend. So, it's trying to get there. 我还没看到它达到。Legend上还没达到。所以，它正在努力。

Should I sell my Boeing position to roll it into Amazon or Google? 我应该卖掉波音的仓位，转投亚马逊或谷歌吗？

I mean, it really depends, right? When did you get into Boeing? 我的意思是，这真的取决于情况，对吧？你是什么时候买入波音的？

Do you believe in Boeing? Do you think Boeing has a better trajectory for growth than Google and Amazon? 你相信波音吗？你认为波音的增长轨迹比谷歌和亚马逊更好吗？

In general, I personally would pick Google or Amazon over Boeing. That's just me. 总的来说，我个人会选择谷歌或亚马逊而不是波音。那只是我个人看法。

But look, Jason's a big fan of Boeing. He believes in it, and he loves it. 但是你看，Jason是波音的忠实粉丝。他相信它，并且热爱它。

So, I'm not saying Boeing's a bad company at all. 所以，我绝不是说波音是家糟糕的公司。

I just think it's easier to, you know, bet on a Google or an Amazon long-term versus a Boeing. 我只是觉得，你知道，长期投资谷歌或亚马逊比投资波音更容易。

So, yeah, personally, I would stay on that one. 所以，是的，我个人会坚持那个。

But I do think Boeing, you know, if you kept up with the story of Boeing, I mean, this stock was at the 160s, so it's been able to make a pretty big move. 但我确实认为波音，你知道，如果你一直关注波音的故事，我的意思是，这只股票曾跌到160美元，所以它已经能够实现相当大的涨幅。

Question is just now how that continues and where the trajectory of growth goes through. 现在的问题只是，这种势头如何持续以及增长轨迹将走向何方。

I mean, they had a really crappy 2024 with the strikes and the protest and all that stuff. 我的意思是，他们在2024年过得很糟糕，有罢工、抗议以及所有那些事情。

It seems like that stuff is not as bad as it was before. 看起来那些事情没有以前那么糟糕了。

Celsius 52-week high. Wow. Celsius. Again, this stock I completely missed. Celsius创52周新高。哇。Celsius。再次强调，这只股票我完全错过了。

And I had a friend who kept yelling at me to freaking look at Celsius, and I didn't. 我有一个朋友一直冲我大喊大叫让我去看看Celsius，但我没看。

140% year to date. 今年以来上涨140%。

I tried the energy drink. I didn't like it. I was like, "This tastes like shit." 我尝了那个能量饮料。我不喜欢。我当时想：“这味道像屎一样。”

But enough people like it where it doesn't matter. Oh, Jose said he'll come on. 但喜欢它的人足够多，所以这不重要。哦，Jose说他会来。

All right, so Jose will be on at 10:30, and we'll get his thoughts on what's going on with semis. 好的，Jose将在10:30上线，我们将听取他对半导体行业情况的看法。

I completely missed it. The acquisition of Rockstar and Alani was actually, you know, really pivotal for them. 我完全错过了。收购Rockstar和Alani对他们来说实际上，你知道，非常关键。

And then the renegotiation of their distribution with Pepsi also helped. 然后与百事可乐重新谈判分销协议也起了作用。

So Celsius right there at 65. Yes. All this for an energy drink. All the Europeans love Celsius. 所以Celsius现在是65美元。是的。所有这些都是为了一个能量饮料。所有欧洲人都喜欢Celsius。

嘉宾Jose访谈：半导体与AI展望

Amit: All right, folks. Let's talk about semiconductors. We had a lot of news happen in the world of semiconductors over the past couple weeks, and we have none other than the man who understands semiconductors better than I think most people on the planet all the way back from Arizona. Jose, what's up? Amit: 好了，各位。我们来谈谈半导体。过去几周半导体世界发生了许多新闻，我们请来了我认为比地球上大多数人都更了解半导体的人，他从亚利桑那州远道而来。Jose，你好吗？

Jose: What's going on, man? How's everything? Good morning. Good morning. Jose: 伙计，你好吗？一切都好吗？早上好。早上好。

Amit: Good morning to you. How was the conference, and how was your trip? Amit: 早上好。会议怎么样？旅途顺利吗？

Jose: Pretty good. Conference was good, and definitely took the time to also enjoy with the family. Jose: 挺好的。会议很顺利，也确实花时间陪了家人。

So, we had fun. Went to Sedona, which was amazing. 所以，我们玩得很开心。去了塞多纳，那地方太棒了。

And then just the part of Arizona that we were in, Scottsdale, was also pretty nice. 然后我们所在的亚利桑那州斯科茨代尔地区也相当不错。

So, pretty, pretty fun. And now it sucks because I come back and I feel like everything has happened in the past three or four days that my mind is just like blowing up. 所以，玩得非常开心。现在回来就觉得不爽了，因为我感觉过去三四天发生的一切都让我的思绪爆炸了。

I, I, I feel like I need another vacation. 我，我，我感觉我需要再放个假。

Amit: Well, I'm happy you're back, and we got a lot of questions for you because as you said, a lot of things have happened. Amit: 很高兴你回来了，我们有很多问题要问你，因为正如你所说，发生了很多事情。

So, we're going to start with this. AMD is your second largest position. 所以，我们从这个开始。AMD是你的第二大持仓。

OpenAI is going to buy 10% of AMD basically for free. OpenAI基本上要免费收购AMD 10%的股份。

AMD stock's up 40% since that deal is announced. 6 gigawatts of data. AMD股价自宣布这笔交易以来上涨了40%。6吉瓦 (Gigawatt: 吉瓦) 的数据。

What was your raw reaction when you saw that news? 当你看到那条新闻时，你的第一反应是什么？

Jose: I mean, first off, just working in with with OpenAI is a big deal. Jose: 我的意思是，首先，能与OpenAI合作就是一件大事。

Right? I mean, obviously it sucks giving up 10% equity. 对吧？我的意思是，显然放弃10%的股权很糟糕。

But I kind of felt it like, I don't know if some of us watch Shark Tank, right? 但我有点感觉，我不知道我们中是否有人看过《创智赢家》，对吧？

If you have a product and the investor takes some equity but can help you sell more and more chips, it's better to have a bigger it's better to have 90% of a company in a much bigger company than 100% of a smaller company. 如果你有一个产品，投资者虽然拿走了一些股权，但能帮你销售越来越多的芯片，那么拥有一家大公司90%的股份，比拥有一家小公司100%的股份要好得多。

So that's how I kind of saw it. And and and six gigawatts (Gigawatt: 吉瓦) um is each gigawatt is $20 billion plus of revenue (营收) potential for AMD. 所以我就是这么看的。而且，每个吉瓦 (Gigawatt: 吉瓦) 对AMD来说都意味着200亿美元以上的营收 (营收) 潜力。

Which is massive. So I, I, I think I've always been bullish on AMD. 这规模巨大。所以，我，我，我一直看好AMD。

I always saw as a multi-bagger. I kind of saw more of like a five 600 billion dollar market opportunity, but I think with this OpenAI deal, it opens up the road, not the guarantee for it to really be a trillion dollar company. 我一直认为它会是多倍股。我曾将其视为一个五六千亿美元的市场机会，但我认为有了OpenAI这笔交易，它开启了通往万亿美元公司的道路，尽管不能保证。

That that's always been an option, but I think just the path to there became a lot clearer with this OpenAI deal if things go go true. 那一直是一个选择，但我认为如果事情进展顺利，有了这项OpenAI交易，通往那里的道路变得清晰了许多。

And and then just yesterday they also announced a massive deal with Oracle that Oracle is planning on buying 50,000 MI450 GPUs from this, and this is completely different than the OpenAI deal. 而且就在昨天，他们还宣布与甲骨文达成了一项大笔交易，甲骨文计划从这项交易中购买5万块MI450图形处理器 (Graphics Processing Unit: 图形处理器)，这与OpenAI的交易完全不同。

So you're seeing a lot of excitement for the MI450. So I, I like the deal. 所以你看到MI450引起了很大的轰动。所以我，我喜欢这笔交易。

We've seen numerous price target analysts increase, and I one of the first times I believe it's justified. 我们看到许多分析师上调了目标价，我第一次觉得这是合理的。

Amit: Muted my bro. Oops. Sorry. Do you think there's a world where AMD did not have enough leverage to get this deal and that's why they had to give up 10% of their company? Amit: 静音了，伙计。哎呀。抱歉。你认为AMD是否有可能没有足够的筹码来达成这笔交易，所以他们不得不放弃公司10%的股份？

Is there anything bearish associated with that? 这其中有什么看跌的因素吗？

Jose: I mean, I, I would say this deal is definitely a deal that shows you're not number one. Jose: 我的意思是，我，我会说这笔交易绝对表明你不是第一名。

Number one doesn't make this type of deal. So, it just showcases that AMD is still not the leader in this space. 第一名不会做这种交易。所以，这只是表明AMD在这个领域仍然不是领导者。

Right? I mean, if if you're giving up equity, it's because you need to leverage and kind of give an incentive. 对吧？我的意思是，如果你放弃股权，那是因为你需要利用它并提供某种激励。

So I see that. But on the other end, I, I, so I see that risk. 所以我看到了这一点。但另一方面，我，我，所以我看到了这个风险。

I don't know if it's a risk, but that kind of negative take from it. 我不知道这是否是一个风险，但从中可以得到一些负面看法。

But on the bullish side, one of the biggest issues with these types of data centers, these data centers are like we've seen multi-billion dollar buildings and just projects. 但在看涨方面，这类数据中心面临的最大问题之一是，这些数据中心就像我们看到的数十亿美元的建筑和项目一样。

AMD before I, I would say AMD obviously has some strength in the market, but to go up to one of their supply chain players and say, "Hey, look, can you dedicate one supply lane, one supply line just for me?" AMD之前我，我会说AMD在市场中显然有一些优势，但要去找他们的一个供应链合作伙伴说：“嘿，你看，你能为我专门开辟一条供应通道，一条生产线吗？”

They would be a little bit hesitant because they'll be like, "Look, we might, but we have Nvidia who we know has tons of orders." 他们会有点犹豫，因为他们会说：“你看，我们也许会，但我们有英伟达，我们知道他们有大量的订单。”

I think with this deal being a little bit more public, the supply chain players are more likely to say, "You know what? You AMD, I see you have that order. 我认为这项交易公开后，供应链参与者更有可能说：“你知道吗？AMD，我看到你有那个订单。

I'm willing to open up more supply chain lines for you because I can see that you're going to be making deal money out of these products. 我愿意为你开辟更多的供应链，因为我看到你将从这些产品中赚到钱。

We're not just going to be putting supply chain lines for for nothing." 我们不会白白地建立供应链。”

So, the bad end, you kind of have to give up 10% equity. 所以，糟糕的一面是，你得放弃10%的股权。

The good end, I do think it kind of helps strengthen your name in the supply chain industry, which is something that Nvidia dominates. 好的一面是，我确实认为这有助于在供应链行业中巩固你的声誉，而这个行业目前由英伟达主导。

If Nvidia needs a new supply chain line from some of their suppliers, they will gladly open up a new facility or a new supply chain line for them. 如果英伟达需要从其供应商那里获得新的供应链，他们会很乐意为他们开设新的工厂或新的供应链。

I think this helps AMD kind of maybe not be in that same level, but at least have some stain in the game right now. 我认为这有助于AMD，也许不能达到同样的水平，但至少目前在这个游戏中占有一席之地。

Amit: Yeah, I agree as well. I think that the whole point of the deal was Lisa Su realizing like, "Look, OpenAI doesn't get 10% of our equity until they actually execute on building these data centers." Amit: 是的，我也同意。我认为这笔交易的全部意义在于Lisa Su意识到：“听着，OpenAI在我们真正执行建设这些数据中心之前，不会获得我们10%的股权。”

So like there's a pretty massive burden on them to figure out how to deploy all these gigawatts. 所以他们肩负着巨大的负担，需要弄清楚如何部署所有这些吉瓦 (Gigawatt: 吉瓦) 的电力。

But if they create value in our company by buying our GPUs and choosing us over an Nvidia for this allotment of GPUs, then, you know, sharing in the upside of that is not that crazy. 但是，如果他们通过购买我们的图形处理器 (Graphics Processing Unit: 图形处理器)，并在这批图形处理器分配中选择我们而不是英伟达，从而为我们公司创造价值，那么，你知道，分享其中的上行空间也并非那么疯狂。

And finally got the stock to pump. I mean like where were you when you saw that 40% move because I'm assuming you must have been happy as a shareholder just seeing. 最终让股价飙升。我的意思是，当你看到那40%的涨幅时，你在哪里？因为我猜你作为股东一定很高兴看到。

Jose: Yeah, I, I for somewhere in that I think I was done with the conference already. Jose: 是的，我，我当时大概是在会议结束后。

I don't remember actually. I just know I was super excited. 我其实不记得了。我只知道我超级兴奋。

The other thing though, I don't, I feel like many people also missed this. 不过，还有一件事，我感觉很多人也错过了。

It's it's not just on gigawatt expansion, but it's also on AMD stock price reaction, and the last trench is $600. 这不仅仅是关于吉瓦 (Gigawatt: 吉瓦) 扩张，也关乎AMD的股价反应，而最后的阶段是600美元。

Correct. $600 right now is still almost a triple bagger from here. 没错。600美元现在仍然是这里的近三倍。

Right? We're at, let's say, we're at 200, right? Maybe a little bit less, 2.5. 对吧？我们现在，比如说，在200美元，对吧？也许少一点，2.5倍。

But that would make AMD a trillion dollar company. 但这将使AMD成为一家万亿美元的公司。

So, for, in my opinion, for both OpenAI and AMD to agree to these trenches in prices. 所以，在我看来，OpenAI和AMD都同意这些价格区间。

It believes that both companies at least have a high probability of believing that AMD can hit $600 in 2030. 它表明两家公司至少很有可能相信AMD能在2030年达到600美元。

If not, I would say OpenAI wouldn't agree with this, and maybe AMD wouldn't agree with this. 如果不是这样，我会说OpenAI不会同意，也许AMD也不会同意。

So it, it at least shows that there's some confidence of at least a $600 price target by by 2030. 所以，这至少表明对2030年达到600美元的目标价有一定的信心。

Amit: Navitas partnered with Nvidia. You like this name reaction to this 50% move? Amit: Navitas与英伟达合作了。你喜欢这个名字对这次50%涨幅的反应吗？

Jose: Yeah. So I think last time I came here I I mentioned that I I don't own Navitas, but I believe this is going to be a trading account, a trading asset. Jose: 是的。所以我想我上次来这里时提过，我没有Navitas的股票，但我相信这将是一个交易账户，一个交易资产。

The main reason is this one really trades on any form of headlines. 主要原因是这只股票真的会受任何形式的头条新闻影响。

This past Monday, I think we saw a lot of headlines including announcements of the increased 800-volt data center progress that's happening. 上周一，我认为我们看到了很多头条新闻，包括800伏数据中心进展加速的公告。

Nvidia's was bullish on that sentiment, and then I think Monday after hours, they also did their own press release that even created even more sentiment. 英伟达对这种情绪持看涨态度，然后我认为周一盘后，他们也发布了自己的新闻稿，甚至制造了更多的情绪。

I'm still going to stay with that statement that as long as great headlines come out for this, Navitas is going to be able to run up. 我仍然坚持那个说法，只要有好的头条新闻出来，Navitas就能上涨。

The reason I say it's more of a headline numbers is because a lot of these revenues are still not expected this year. 我之所以说它更像是一个头条数字，是因为其中很多营收今年仍然没有预期。

Right? So eventually that's going to change, and maybe eventually my trend my my discussion would say now this is more of a fundamental move. 对吧？所以最终那会改变，也许最终我的趋势，我的讨论会说，现在这更像是一个基本面上的变化。

Right now I think it's mainly more of just that that excitement on on headlines. 现在我认为这主要只是头条新闻带来的兴奋。

I do want to give one quick warning. Last earnings the company didn't share much insight about their Nvidia partnership, and we did see last earnings now dropped about double digits. 我确实想快速提醒一句。上次财报，公司没有分享太多关于他们与英伟达合作的见解，我们确实看到上次财报现在下跌了大约两位数。

Now with this excitement earnings season is back up if we want this momentum to continue management has to share more insight with what's happening here and more insight of where the potential revenue is coming. 现在随着这种兴奋，财报季又回来了，如果我们要让这种势头继续下去，管理层必须分享更多关于这里发生的事情以及潜在收入来源的见解。

Last time they gave us potential revenue, but they gave us potential revenue for 2030. 上次他们给了我们潜在营收，但他们给的是2030年的潜在营收。

Let's be honest, no one cares what happens in 2030 right now. 老实说，现在没人关心2030年发生什么。

We care what happens in the next few months. 我们关心未来几个月会发生什么。

So, they need to be able to give that confidence to investors that look within the next two, three quarters, that's when we're going to start to see revenue. 所以，他们需要能够给投资者信心，让他们看到在未来两三个季度内，我们将开始看到营收。

If not, I don't want to be that that guy, but I could expect maybe a sell-off if they don't share excitement during the earnings call. 如果不是这样，我不想当那种人，但我可能会预期，如果他们在财报电话会议上没有分享令人兴奋的消息，可能会出现抛售。

Amit: Yeah, I think that's a fair point. I mean, obviously, this name has had a lot of people buy into it also off just the pure momentum. Amit: 是的，我认为这是一个合理的观点。我的意思是，很明显，这只股票吸引了很多人仅仅因为纯粹的势头而买入。

So, you're right. I mean, I didn't know they didn't give that many details last quarter. 所以，你说得对。我的意思是，我不知道他们上个季度没有提供那么多细节。

So, this would be one of those quarters to solidify that they are legit and working with Nvidia for some really important tasks, but the details there would be pretty damn important. 所以，这将是巩固他们合法性并与英伟达合作完成一些非常重要任务的季度之一，但其中的细节将非常非常重要。

Jose, let's talk about data centers. But before we get to that, guys, Jose's YouTube right here. Jose，我们来谈谈数据中心。但在那之前，各位，这里是Jose的YouTube。

Please make sure to subscribe if you care about semiconductors at all. 如果你对半导体有任何兴趣，请务必订阅。

If you're invested in semiconductors, you probably should be subscribed to this channel. 如果你投资了半导体，你大概应该订阅这个频道。

And then whatthechip.com. This is his newsletter that he puts out a couple times a week. 然后是whatthechip.com。这是他每周发布几次的通讯。

For those that like to read things in written form, please make sure to subscribe to that for his newsletter as well. 对于喜欢阅读书面内容的人，请务必订阅他的这份通讯。

Jose: Yeah, the newsletter this morning I just dropped out something. It covered AMD's recent price target hikes. Jose: 是的，今天早上我刚发布了一篇通讯。它涵盖了AMD最近的目标价上调。

Nvidia pretty interesting. It's a really crazy move, but they have an inception a startup company that wants to build data centers in space. 英伟达很有趣。这是一个非常疯狂的举动，但他们有一家初创公司，想要在太空建造数据中心。

So, so it I don't think it's going to happen anytime soon, but I just included there to include the read. 所以，我不认为这会很快发生，但我只是把它包括在内，供大家阅读。

And then yesterday we had ASML earnings, so that was covered later today. 然后昨天我们有ASML的财报，所以今天晚些时候会报道。

I might be dropping one either tonight or tomorrow covering TSMC who also had earnings. 我今晚或明天可能会发布一篇关于台积电的报道，他们也发布了财报。

TSM today, ASML yesterday. 台积电今天，ASML昨天。

Amit: Yeah. And we'll talk about TSM and ASML in a second. Amit: 是的。我们稍后会谈谈台积电和ASML。

So, if you guys want to get updated on that coverage, I mean, I really would suggest subscribing to whatthechip happening in his YouTube channel because it's a lot better coverage than most people on the planet when it comes to these semiconductor names. 所以，如果你们想了解那方面的最新报道，我的意思是，我真的建议订阅他的YouTube频道“whatthechip”，因为在这些半导体公司方面，他的报道比地球上大多数人都做得好得多。

Okay, let's talk about data centers. So, the Bitcoin miners have completely pivoted to become data center companies. 好的，我们来谈谈数据中心。所以，比特币矿商已经完全转型成为数据中心公司。

You've got a lot of energy stocks that are going green because they want to play a role in the buildout of data centers. 有很多能源股正在上涨，因为它们希望在数据中心的建设中发挥作用。

We have Douggy in the chat who says, "Should we think about buying Caterpillar because they make a ton of construction equipment that will be pivotal in data centers?" 聊天室里有Douggy说：“我们是否应该考虑购买卡特彼勒，因为他们生产大量的建筑设备，这些设备在数据中心中将起到关键作用？”

And they're, you know, they're creating the picks and shovels. 而且他们，你知道，他们正在创造“镐和铲”。

What is your perspective on investing in derivative plays associated with data centers versus just Broadcom, Nvidia, and AMD itself? 你对投资与数据中心相关的衍生品，与直接投资博通、英伟达和AMD本身，有何看法？

Jose: I mean, I think those derivative players, especially the ones under $10 billion, are the ones that give you that trend, that that that come with some form of, it's it's not a complete yolo play because there is some bullish thesis behind them. Jose: 我的意思是，我认为那些衍生品玩家，特别是市值低于100亿美元的，它们能给你带来那种趋势，那种伴随着某种形式的，它不是一个完全的“放手一搏”的游戏，因为它们背后有一些看涨的逻辑。

But it comes with risk. I personally own a few. My number one player is CoreWeave. 但它伴随着风险。我个人持有几只。我的头号玩家是CoreWeave。

This is a position I was talking I even came on this one was under 100 in this channel, and this was one of my favorites. 这是我一直在谈论的一个仓位，我甚至在这个频道上讲过，当时它还不到100美元，这是我最喜欢的之一。

So CoreWeave is my number one in forms of AI infrastructure. 所以CoreWeave是我在人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 基础设施方面的头号选择。

I also own some Nebius. There's another one I own called White Fiber. 我还持有Nebius的一些股票。我还有另一只叫White Fiber的股票。

Many people haven't even heard of this one. So so White Fiber is another. 很多人甚至没听说过这只。所以White Fiber是另一个。

I think these are going to continue to see a bullish trend, but with the 我认为这些将继续呈现看涨趋势，但随着...

Amit: Wait, before you continue, do you know what a Do you know what a White Russian is? Amit: 等等，在你继续之前，你知道什么是“白色俄罗斯”吗？你知道什么是“白色俄罗斯”吗？

Jose: I, I don't know. Jose: 我，我不知道。

Amit: Okay, good. Thank you. Because apparently it's an alcoholic drink, and I thought it was a type of macadamia. Amit: 好的，谢谢。因为显然那是一种酒精饮料，而我以为是某种夏威夷果。

Jose: Okay. I was going to say an alcoholic drink, but then my mind was thinking something else, so I didn't want to say it. Jose: 好的。我本来想说是一种酒精饮料，但后来我的脑子里想到了别的东西，所以我就没说。

But, regardless, I think derivatives right now are are definitely the excitement in the space. 但是，无论如何，我认为衍生品现在绝对是这个领域的兴奋点。

Amit: Are they are they in a little bit of a bubble, Jose, or you think Amit: Jose，它们是不是有点泡沫化了，你觉得呢？

Jose: I think so. And and this is probably one of the main reasons I, I, I think I took a step back in my overall portfolio. Jose: 我想是的。这可能是我在整体投资组合中退后一步的主要原因之一。

I've kind of taken a step back. I've actually I'm thinking of like buying companies like Amazon and Synopsis right now. 我有点退缩了。我实际上正在考虑现在购买亚马逊和Synopsis这样的公司。

Companies that are like multi-billion dollar players already. 那些已经是数十亿美元级别的公司。

I, I don't know. I'm 我，我不知道。我...

Amit: You're thinking of de-risking a little bit. Amit: 你在考虑稍微降低一点风险。

Jose: Yes, exactly. And I'm not I'm not rushing into high-flying names right now. Jose: 是的，没错。我目前不急于追逐那些高歌猛进的股票。

Everything is just seeing so much excitement. 一切都充满了兴奋。

I mean every other day we see these Bitcoin miners go up 6% 7%. 我的意思是，我们每隔一天就看到这些比特币矿商上涨6%、7%。

Then a 2% drop and then bought back the dip gets bought back and then another seven 8% growth. 然后下跌2%，接着逢低买入又被买回，然后又增长7%到8%。

I have some of those players in my in my portfolio, but I'm not buying anymore. 我的投资组合中确实有一些这样的股票，但我不会再买了。

I just it's 我只是...

Amit: It makes you feel uneasy taking Amit: 这让你感到不安？

Jose: Yeah, it does. It really does. And that's why lately I, I haven't even done live streams. Jose: 是的，确实如此。真的。所以最近我甚至没有做直播。

I don't know, just the market is just it's been too exciting for me that I've decided to even kind of take a step back from just being in front of the computer because I don't want to react to these crazy reactions. 我不知道，市场对我来说太兴奋了，以至于我决定甚至有点退后，不再坐在电脑前，因为我不想对这些疯狂的反应做出反应。

I rather just I, I don't want to destroy my portfolio. I don't want to destroy my money. 我宁愿只是，我，我不想毁掉我的投资组合。我不想毁掉我的钱。

So, so yeah, I've been taking a step back and just been looking either at ETFs or some of the big big players instead right now for any new money coming in. 所以，是的，我一直在退后一步，现在对于任何新进资金，我都在关注ETF或一些大公司。

Amit: Well, I think it makes sense also because you've made a killing this year off just Nvidia and AMD alone. Amit: 嗯，我认为这也很合理，因为你今年光靠英伟达和AMD就已经赚得盆满钵满了。

So, if you and CoreWeave, right? If you've been able to beat the S&P off individual stocks, which is not easy to do, and you've done very well, 所以，如果你和CoreWeave，对吧？如果你能够通过个股跑赢标普 (Standard & Poor's: 标普)，这并不容易做到，而且你做得非常好。

Jose: It kind of makes sense to not fly into more risk if you've already been rewarded for a ton of risk. Jose: 如果你已经因为承担了大量风险而获得了回报，那么不再冒险似乎是合理的。

Jose: Yeah. And and and that's I'm happy you mentioned that. Jose: 是的。我很高兴你提到了这一点。

Because my portfolio might be a lot more AI based. 因为我的投资组合可能更多地基于人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能)。

So, I might feel a little bit different than someone who owns like oil companies or that owns fintech companies or that owns some other type of companies. 所以，我可能和那些拥有石油公司、金融科技公司或其他类型公司股票的人感觉有点不同。

My portfolio is pretty much AI tech plays. 我的投资组合基本上是人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 科技股。

So it's like I, I wonder if my obviously my uneasement uneasement is coming from that portfolio allocation. 所以我就想，我的不安是不是来自我的投资组合配置。

So right now I'm definitely taking a kind of a step back. 所以现在我肯定是在退后一步。

But at least in the long term, at least for the next two years, what we know for sure is power is still limited. 但至少从长远来看，至少在未来两年内，我们确切知道的是电力仍然有限。

And if power is still limited, the possibility of these companies getting a deal from massive players is pretty high. 如果电力仍然有限，这些公司从大公司那里获得交易的可能性就相当高。

It, it's not impossible, and it's not one thing I, I, I was listening to a podcast recently, and someone mentioned that when we talk about AI training models, you need these massive data centers. 这并非不可能，而且我最近听了一个播客，有人提到当我们谈论人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 训练模型时，你需要这些大型数据中心。

So these like one, two gigawatt data centers all in one spot pretty much. 所以这些像一、两个吉瓦 (Gigawatt: 吉瓦) 的数据中心基本上都集中在一个地方。

Amit: Yeah. And but for inference, and inference is the biggest market, you can actually have one gigawatt of data centers, but not all in one spot. Amit: 是的。但对于推理，而推理是最大的市场，你实际上可以拥有一个吉瓦 (Gigawatt: 吉瓦) 的数据中心，但不必全部集中在一个地方。

You can have 50 megawatts a year, 100 megawatts here. 你每年可以有50兆瓦，这里有100兆瓦。

And that's actually pretty exciting for a lot of these Bitcoin miners because a lot of these Bitcoin miners, they don't have that one massive load. 这对许多比特币矿商来说实际上非常令人兴奋，因为很多比特币矿商并没有那么大的单一负载。

They have someone's probably going to clip that. They're going to have um they have massive they have small powers all over. 他们可能会剪掉那段。他们将拥有巨大的，他们拥有遍布各地的小型电力。

They have 50 megawatts here. They have 75 megawatts a year. They have 100 megawatts. 他们这里有50兆瓦。他们每年有75兆瓦。他们有100兆瓦。

And with the current AI inference market, I can see maybe deals coming through. 而且以目前的人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 推理市场来看，我可以看到可能会有交易达成。

Now, how much has been priced in? That's always the the the fun question to try to answer. 现在，有多少已经计入价格了？这始终是那个有趣的问题，需要尝试回答。

Amit: Is there any specific Bitcoin miner turn data center that that you're long or or just CoreWeave as your play? Amit: 有没有你长期看好或只是当作投资的特定比特币矿商转型数据中心，或者只是CoreWeave作为你的投资对象？

Jose: So, CoreWeave is my biggest position by far in in forms of this AI infrastructure. Jose: 所以，CoreWeave是迄今为止我在人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 基础设施方面最大的持仓。

The main reason I like this one is because this one is truly Nvidia's baby. 我喜欢这只股票的主要原因是因为它确实是英伟达的“宝贝”。

And I think that's a major, major asset in my mind. 我认为这在我看来是一项非常非常重要的资产。

When it comes to this play, I have Nebius as another one. 谈到这个投资，我还有Nebius。

But the one that's a complete Bitcoin miner for me is White White Fiber. 但对我来说，完全是比特币矿商的那只股票是White White Fiber。

So, it's ticker WYFI. And this is actually a spin-off from a Bitcoin miner company called um, it's it's BTBT, so I think that's Bit Mine. 所以，它的股票代码是WYFI。这实际上是从一家名为BTBT的比特币矿商公司分拆出来的，所以我认为那是Bit Mine。

But they mainly, they mainly do Ethereum. 但他们主要，他们主要从事以太坊业务。

So instead of of diverging from their Ethereum mining capabilities, they actually spinned off the AI capability segment. 所以他们并没有偏离他们的以太坊挖矿能力，而是将人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 能力部门分拆了出去。

So this is pretty much purely an AI player in AI hyperscaling, but again, massive runup. 所以这基本上纯粹是一个人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 超大规模计算领域的人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 参与者，但再次强调，涨幅巨大。

It, it's done really well for me. So I'm not chasing you're not in IREN or Galaxy or Bitfarms or any of those. 它，它对我来说表现得非常好。所以我没有追逐你不在IREN、Galaxy或Bitfarms或任何那些股票中。

Jose: I, I was in IREN, and I wasn't some other Bitcoin miners. I had created like a little mini ETF. Jose: 我，我持有IREN，也持有其他一些比特币矿商的股票。我曾创建了一个迷你交易所交易基金 (Exchange Traded Fund: 交易所交易基金)。

But again, as I told you, my uneasement of the market, I started to sell off little bit of little bit of all of these. 但正如我告诉你的，我对市场感到不安，所以我开始一点一点地卖掉所有这些股票。

So now the only one I have is this one. And the main reason is I feel like not many people are talking about this one. 所以现在我只剩下这只了。主要原因是我觉得没多少人谈论这只股票。

So the excitement is still there. It's not anything bearish for IREN is doing pretty good. 所以兴奋感仍然存在。对IREN来说并没有什么利空，它表现得相当不错。

Nothing bearish for the other ones that I sold. It was just I was just letting go one by one the ones that were rallying up. 我卖出的其他股票也没有任何利空。我只是一个接一个地卖掉了那些上涨的股票。

And I'm just left with with with that one just now. 我现在就只剩下那一个了。

Amit: Got it. That makes sense. TSM, any thoughts on this earnings? Amit: 明白了。这很合理。台积电，对这次财报有什么看法吗？

I know you saw it this morning, but in my opinion, feels like they crushed it. 我知道你今早看到了，但依我看来，他们表现得非常出色。

Jose: Definitely crushed it. I mean, if you are an AI investor, the biggest thing is they mentioned that the AI demand continues, and they mention it's more the actual quote, it's more stronger than we thought three months ago. Jose: 绝对碾压了市场。我的意思是，如果你是人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 投资者，最重要的一点是他们提到人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 需求持续增长，而且他们更具体的说法是，它比我们三个月前预期的要强劲得多。

That is insane for me. TSMC's management is one that says it how it is. 这对我来说太疯狂了。台积电的管理层是那种实事求是的。

If it's bearish, they tell you it's bearish. If it's bullish, they tell you it's bullish. 如果是利空，他们会告诉你利空。如果是利好，他们会告诉你利好。

And right now, they're telling me it's very, very bullish. 而现在，他们告诉我情况非常非常看涨。

So, the overall ecosystem is nice. Obviously, we've talked about it. 所以，整个生态系统都很好。显然，我们已经讨论过了。

There could be bubbles within this ecosystem, but the overall ecosystem in AI chips is massive. 这个生态系统内部可能存在泡沫，但人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 芯片的整体生态系统是巨大的。

Following that, they, they increased their CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate: 复合年增长率) for data centers to be about 40% till 2029. 在那之后，他们将数据中心的复合年增长率 (Compound Annual Growth Rate: 复合年增长率) 提高到2029年约为40%。

That is wild. They increased their capital. 那太疯狂了。他们增加了资本。

I don't know if they increased it, but I know they they increased the bottom end of their capital expenditure, which is great for companies in the equipment space like ASML, like Lam Research and those companies as well. 我不知道他们是否增加了资本，但我知道他们提高了资本支出的下限，这对于设备领域的公司如ASML、泛林集团（Lam Research）以及其他类似公司来说都是好消息。

And and and yeah, I think right now if you're in the AI space, you're pretty, pretty excited still. 而且，是的，我认为现在如果你在人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 领域，你仍然会非常非常兴奋。

Amit: Applied Digital, any reaction to their earnings? Amit: Applied Digital，对他们的财报有什么反应吗？

Jose: That one I did not look at that one. That one happened last week while I was in vacation. Jose: 那个我没看。那件事发生在上周我度假的时候。

So that one is is one I I skimmed through really quickly. 所以那一个我只是很快地浏览了一下。

Amit: Okay. Uh quick question. Do you know Amkor by any chance? Amit: 好的。问个小问题。你认识安靠吗？

Jose: So I, I think Amkor, they do things in the packaging space of semiconductors and not putting the boxes together, kind of putting like the chips together if I'm correct. Jose: 所以我，我认为安靠，他们在半导体的封装领域做事情，而不是将盒子组装起来，如果我没记错的话，他们更像是将芯片组装在一起。

I don't follow this one too much, so so can't say much out there. 我不太关注这个，所以不能多说什么。

But if they are in the advanced packaging market, there's definitely a bullish sentiment for that right now. 但如果他们身处先进封装市场，那么现在肯定有看涨情绪。

Advanced packaging is extremely crucial for the future of chips, not just for AI, but everything else. 先进封装对芯片的未来至关重要，不仅对人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能)，对其他一切也是如此。

Amit: Okay. Okay. And then ASML, I mean, their management seemed a little not as bullish as TSM, but the stock still had a pretty good earnings. Amit: 好的。好的。然后是ASML，我的意思是，他们的管理层似乎没有台积电那么看涨，但股票仍然有相当不错的财报。

What do you think about their quarter as well? 你对他们这个季度有什么看法？

Jose: Yeah, I mean, they, they mentioned some great numbers. Jose: 是的，我的意思是，他们提到了很多不错的数字。

They mentioned first that at least they're going to see they're not going to go down from 2025. 他们首先提到，至少他们不会在2025年之后下跌。

They, they say it's either going to be steady or some growth for the next year, 2026. 他们说，明年，也就是2026年，要么保持稳定，要么会有一些增长。

So, that's some I guess bullish sentiment. 所以，我想这是一种看涨情绪。

The other thing they mentioned is the type of machines that they're their high NA EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography: 极紫外光刻) machines are actually being used now by memory players because memory need to use this for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory: 高带宽存储器), and that's kind of like I would say for high NA EUV is is is a new market for them with the memory players. 他们提到的另一件事是，他们的那种高极紫外光刻 (Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography: 极紫外光刻) 机器现在实际上正被内存厂商使用，因为内存需要用它来制造高带宽存储器 (High Bandwidth Memory: 高带宽存储器)，可以说，对于高数值孔径极紫外光刻来说，这是一个与内存厂商合作的新市场。

So that's pretty not high just high EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography: 极紫外光刻) for the memory players. 所以这对内存厂商来说并不是很高，只是高极紫外光刻 (Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography: 极紫外光刻) 技术。

The other thing is they are producing new products that are going to deal with the advanced packaging. 另一件事是他们正在生产新产品来应对先进封装。

I forget the actual name of the product. But they're they're they're doing good. 我忘了产品的具体名称。但他们做得很好。

I mean, this is definitely an exciting stock for not an exciting critical stock for the semiconductor industry. 我的意思是，这绝对是一只令人兴奋的股票，而不是半导体行业中令人兴奋的关键股票。

I think as an AI investor though, I'm more crucial critical about TSMC than ASML. 不过，作为一名人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 投资者，我认为台积电比ASML更关键。

I think ASML is too much in the top supply chain line that it doesn't really impact too much the Nvidia and all these other players. 我认为ASML在供应链顶端的位置太高，以至于它对英伟达和所有其他玩家的影响并不大。

TSMC does. 台积电则不然。

Amit: Do you own Micron anymore? No, I, I, I never owned Micron. Amit: 你还持有美光吗？不，我，我，我从未持有美光。

Jose: Been bullish on it, but it's just it's certain if I would have owned Micron, I think it would have increased my AI chip exposure even more. Jose: 我一直看好它，但如果我持有美光，我认为那只会进一步增加我在人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 芯片领域的风险敞口。

But that one's ripping. I know it's I, I think over $200 now. 但那只股票正在飙升。我知道它现在已经超过200美元了。

The demand for memory continues. I mean, OpenAI just announced massive I mean all deals with everybody, right? 内存需求持续增长。我的意思是，OpenAI刚刚宣布了大规模的，我是说与所有人的所有交易，对吧？

AI deals with Nvidia, deals with AMD, and deals with Broadcom. 与英伟达的人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 交易，与AMD的交易，以及与博通的交易。

All those players are going to need some form of AI chips. All those AI chips are going to be are going to need some form of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory: 高带宽存储器). 所有这些参与者都需要某种形式的人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 芯片。所有这些人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 芯片都需要某种形式的高带宽存储器 (High Bandwidth Memory: 高带宽存储器)。

So pretty good for for Micron right now in the overall market where it's still supply constraint when it comes to memory space. 所以，在内存领域仍然供应受限的整体市场中，美光现在表现相当不错。

Amit: How did you feel about the Broadcom deal which was very similar to OpenAI, but instead of six gigawatts, it was 10 gigawatts? Amit: 你对博通的交易有何看法？它与OpenAI的交易非常相似，但不是6吉瓦 (Gigawatt: 吉瓦)，而是10吉瓦 (Gigawatt: 吉瓦)。

And more broadly, do you, all right, let me ask you this. 更广泛地说，你，好吧，让我问你这个。

Is some of your uneasiness coming from OpenAI literally being at the heart of almost every one of these deals that we're seeing Oracle, Broadcom, AMD, and Nvidia? 你的一些不安是否来自OpenAI几乎成为我们所看到的甲骨文、博通、AMD和英伟达所有这些交易的核心？

Jose: So I don't think my uneasement is coming from OpenAI. Jose: 所以我不认为我的不安来自OpenAI。

I think if OpenAI fails, someone else is going to pick up the slack. 我认为如果OpenAI失败了，其他人会接替。

I think AI is going to be the future, and if OpenAI, if OpenAI slacks, either XAI, either Anthropic, someone is going to pick it up. 我认为人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 将是未来，如果OpenAI表现不佳，无论是XAI还是Anthropic，都会有人接替。

So maybe in in short term, you could see volatility if something bad happens to OpenAI. 所以，也许在短期内，如果OpenAI发生不好的事情，你可能会看到波动。

In the long term, the market is going to need those three players. 从长远来看，市场将需要这三家公司。

It's going to need well definitely Nvidia and Broadcom. 它肯定需要英伟达和博通。

AMD is is it's definitely needed for a competitive space. AMD绝对是竞争领域所必需的。

But my uneasement doesn't come from OpenAI. 但我的不安并非来自OpenAI。

Now, the thought process of OpenAI doing going being from the streets pretty much and just going with everybody. Interesting. 现在，OpenAI的思维过程，基本上是来自街头，与所有人合作。有趣。

It's it's definitely interesting. 这绝对很有趣。

Amit: He's for the streets. Amit: 他是为大众服务的。

Jose: She's for the streets. Jose: 她是为大众服务的。

Amit: OpenAI having a bigger. Amit: OpenAI拥有更大的。

Jose: Do not go through OpenAI's Instagram story. Instagram DMs. You'll be you'll be disappointed. Jose: 不要看OpenAI的Instagram故事。Instagram私信。你会失望的。

You're dating Open. Don't go through their DMs. 你正在约会Open。不要查看他们的私信。

I got another 10 gigawatts for you here. 我这里还有10吉瓦 (Gigawatt: 吉瓦) 给你。

Um, where was I? Uh, I mean Broadcom is is definitely number two in the AI space right now, right? 嗯，我刚才说到哪儿了？呃，我的意思是，博通现在在人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 领域绝对是第二名，对吧？

I mean every AI player is trying to make their own AI chips. 我的意思是，每个人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 玩家都在尝试制造自己的人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 芯片。

It makes sense that they have 10 gigawatts opposed to the 6 gigawatts for AMD. 他们拥有10吉瓦 (Gigawatt: 吉瓦) 而不是AMD的6吉瓦 (Gigawatt: 吉瓦)，这是有道理的。

I would say the CEO of Broadcom was in a recent interview with Jim Cramer on CNBC, and normally, Hawkan is very competitive against Nvidia. 我想说博通的首席执行官最近在CNBC接受了Jim Cramer的采访，通常情况下，Hawkan对英伟达非常有竞争力。

And this is and this is just my thinking. It's how I see it. 这就是我的想法。我是这么看的。

It's not just what you say, but how you say it. That's also really crucial. 不仅仅是你说了什么，还有你是怎么说的。那也至关重要。

When when I listen to leadership, he sounded a little less competitive to Nvidia during that interview. 当我听领导讲话时，他在那次采访中对英伟达的竞争力听起来稍微弱了一些。

And I don't see that as a sign of a weakness. 我不认为那是弱点的标志。

I see that that this market is so big right now that you're not really competing with too many players. 我认为这个市场现在如此之大，以至于你并没有真正与太多玩家竞争。

You're just got to do well yourself, and you're going to get plenty of market share. 你只需要自己做好，你就会获得大量的市场份额。

And I, I don't know why. I, I actually see a potential future where somehow Nvidia and Broadcom team up. 而且我，我不知道为什么。我，我实际上看到了一个潜在的未来，英伟达和博通以某种方式合作。

I, I, I don't know why, but that interview itself, Hogan is no longer worried about Nvidia. 我，我，我不知道为什么，但那次采访本身，霍根不再担心英伟达了。

And that's what I like to see, right? When you're no longer worried about someone else, you're just focusing on yourself. 这就是我乐于看到的，对吧？当你不再担心别人时，你只专注于自己。

And I think that's what came up from that interview that I really enjoy. 我认为那次采访中浮现出的正是我非常喜欢的东西。

I don't own Broadcom, but I really do enjoy the leadership change that I saw during that interview process. 我没有博通的股票，但我确实很喜欢在那次采访过程中看到的领导力转变。

Amit: Last two questions. SMCI, any any excitement for this if GPUs are ramping up as much as they are? Amit: 最后两个问题。SMCI，如果图形处理器 (Graphics Processing Unit: 图形处理器) 产量如此之大，你对此有什么兴奋点吗？

Jose: I mean it's the excitement is there, right? Data centers are going to need servers. Jose: 我的意思是，兴奋点是存在的，对吧？数据中心将需要服务器。

You're going to need to buy servers from everybody. 你将需要从每个人那里购买服务器。

Amit: Dell their revenue (营收) projections, right? Amit: 戴尔的营收 (营收) 预测，对吧？

Jose: Yeah. And Dell, it's a lot of competition in this space. I'm not that excited about it. Jose: 是的。而且戴尔，这个领域竞争激烈。我对此并不那么兴奋。

If I want to continue to increase my exposure into the AI, I'd rather do the Bitcoiner miner way or the AI infrastructure way or energy play opposed to a server play. 如果我想继续增加我对人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 的敞口，我宁愿选择比特币矿工的方式，或者人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 基础设施的方式，或者能源股，而不是服务器股。

Most of my server play is most likely covered with like my chip companies already. 我的大部分服务器投资很可能已经被我的芯片公司覆盖了。

So I would rather like to get like you mentioned another derivative in that space, and I don't think it would be the rack system. 所以我宁愿像你提到的那样，在这个领域获得另一个衍生品，而且我不认为会是机架系统。

I think it would be another avenue. 我认为那会是另一条途径。

Amit: All right, so last question for you Jose, and this is going to be a question that the chat can participate in as well, and I think it'll be a fun question. Amit: 好的，Jose，最后一个问题给你，这也是一个聊天室可以参与的问题，我认为这将是一个有趣的问题。

Again, if you have not subscribed to Jose on YouTube, please make sure to subscribe. 再次强调，如果你还没有在YouTube上订阅Jose，请务必订阅。

He blesses us pretty much every week with some really awesome semiconductor. 他几乎每周都会给我们带来一些非常棒的半导体资讯。

Now, someone said you're number one. Dylan Patel's number two. I would agree. 现在，有人说你是第一名。Dylan Patel是第二名。我同意。

Jose, you need to start a consulting firm like Dylan Patel, and just, I mean, you understand this really well. Jose，你需要像Dylan Patel那样开一家咨询公司，我的意思是，你真的非常了解这些。

Jose: I mean, he, he's that team is good. It's impressive. Jose: 我的意思是，他，他的团队很棒。令人印象深刻。

I, I would love to, but I think just the logistics of doing something like that is is wild. 我，我很想，但我认为做那样的事情的物流方面太疯狂了。

Amit: It's hard. No. Yeah, that that's not I don't know Dylan personally, but like semi-analysis is the only real outside of actual industry notes and like other stuff that is one of the only analysis that I follow in the semiconductor space. Amit: 很难。不。是的，那不是我个人认识Dylan，但除了实际的行业报告和其他资料外，semi-analysis是我在半导体领域唯一关注的分析之一。

There's no one else that it's that and then just whatever I read from presentations or press release. 没有其他人，就只有那个，然后就是我从演示文稿或新闻稿中读到的任何东西。

Jose: Well, for me it's you. You are the guy that I look to to get this analysis. Jose: 嗯，对我来说是你。你就是我寻求这种分析的人。

Amit: All right. So given OpenAI is working with Nvidia, Oracle, AMD, and Broadcom over the past like two weeks in terms of announcing these deals. Amit: 好的。所以鉴于OpenAI在过去两周内与英伟达、甲骨文、AMD和博通合作，宣布了这些交易。

Here's the question for you and the question for the chat. Take a second to think before you vote, folks. 这是给你的问题，也是给聊天室的问题。各位，投票前请先思考一下。

Jose: Is it going to work with Jose: 它会和...合作吗？

Amit: Oh, no. Never mind. Never mind. I thought that was the question. Never mind. Amit: 哦，不。算了。算了。我以为那是问题。算了。

Amit: No. If you had to pick one over the next five years to hold, which is it? Amit: 不。如果你要在未来五年内选择一只股票持有，会是哪一只？

Nvidia, Broadcom at these val from these prices today from October 16th today. 英伟达、博通，从今天10月16日的这些价格来看。

Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD or Oracle, which one do you hold next five years? 英伟达、博通、AMD还是甲骨文，你未来五年会持有哪一只？

Jose: The one I hold five next five years for me is Nvidia. Jose: 我未来五年会持有的那只股票是英伟达。

That's the one that I feel has the biggest ability and the biggest success rate. 我认为那只股票拥有最大的潜力和最高的成功率。

So for me, it's it's more of thinking of which one's going to keep my money the safest. 所以对我来说，更多的是考虑哪一只能让我的钱最安全。

If I want to be a little gambler, not gambler, but if I want to expect my money to have a higher chance of growing, but also a little bit more risk, I would go with AMD as my number two. 如果我想稍微冒险一点，不是赌徒，但如果我希望我的钱有更高的增长机会，但也伴随一点点更高的风险，我会选择AMD作为我的第二选择。

So anything else I, I, I wouldn't play. It would be just between those two. 所以其他的我，我，我不会碰。就只在这两只之间选择。

And it's those two mindsets. Money, I think Nvidia is going to continue to dominate. 而且是这两种心态。我的钱，我认为英伟达将继续主导。

The opportunity to grow faster, a lot faster than the other ones with some success rate. 以一定的成功率，比其他公司增长更快，快得多。

I think AMD. Yeah. 我认为AMD。是的。

Amit: Well, Nvidia is already four and a half trillion. I mean for them to go 3x, it would have to be like 12 chip for AMD to go 3x a trillion. Amit: 嗯，英伟达已经达到4.5万亿美元了。我的意思是，他们要涨3倍，那就像AMD要涨3倍达到万亿美元，就得是12美元的芯片。

So even at that even from that perspective, you'd be happier with Nvidia over Amit: 所以即使从那个角度来看，你也会更喜欢英伟达而不是...

Jose: Yep. I, I, I it sounds crazy, but Nvidia. Jose: 是的。我，我，我听起来很疯狂，但就是英伟达。

Amit: The math doesn't math with the current AI stuff with the current market that we're in. Amit: 在我们目前所处的市场中，目前的人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 技术，数学上并不完全合理。

But 10 trillion I don't think seems that impossible anymore for Nvidia. 但10万亿美元对英伟达来说，我认为不再那么不可能了。

It, I not next year, not two years from now, but in the next five years, I don't I, I could see still double bagging if the AI market continues to evolve as we're seeing right now. 它，我不是说明年，也不是两年后，而是在未来五年内，我，我仍然可以看到翻倍的机会，如果人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 市场像我们现在看到的那样继续发展。

I mean, VO3 is insane. Sora 2 is insane. Anthropic just announced Haiku 4.5. 我的意思是，VO3太疯狂了。Sora 2太疯狂了。Anthropic刚刚发布了Haiku 4.5。

They also announced that they're expected to do $9 billion in revenue this year, and by next year they expect to triple to $26 billion. 他们还宣布，预计今年将实现90亿美元的营收，到明年预计将翻三倍达到260亿美元。

Jose: Yep. Yep. All these AI I, I don't know. I just the AI market is real. Jose: 是的。是的。所有这些人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 我，我不知道。我只是觉得人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 市场是真实的。

And and I think Nvidia being the number one even if it loses market share, it's that market where losing market share doesn't mean you're necessarily going to lose revenue or margins. 而且我认为英伟达作为第一名，即使失去市场份额，这个市场也意味着失去市场份额不一定意味着你会失去营收或利润。

This market just continues to grow. We saw like we saw TSM 40% CAGR in data center till 2029. 这个市场只是持续增长。我们看到台积电数据中心到2029年的复合年增长率 (Compound Annual Growth Rate: 复合年增长率) 为40%。

Is going to be a good portion of that. 这将是其中很大一部分。

Amit: Yeah, and if they do $1 of EPS in 2027, they're trading at 27 times, which is not expensive. Amit: 是的，如果他们2027年每股收益达到1美元，他们的市盈率是27倍，这并不贵。

It's just not that expensive. So, all right, Jose. Thank you. Deeply, deeply appreciate it. 它就是没那么贵。所以，好的，Jose。谢谢你。深深，深深地感谢。

We missed you for the past week, and I think a lot of people benefited from 我们过去一周都很想你，我认为很多人都从中受益了。

Jose: No, thank you. I mean, you woke me up. I felt I felt pretty I don't know. Jose: 不，谢谢你。我的意思是，你唤醒了我。我觉得我感觉相当，我不知道。

I felt pretty down not down this week because obviously money is up, but it's just like it's just so crazy. 我这周感觉相当低落，不是因为钱，而是因为显然钱涨了，但就是感觉太疯狂了。

And just coming here just got me a lot more excited. 而仅仅来到这里就让我兴奋多了。

So, I'm about to go go back to my computer and just grind it out. 所以，我正准备回到电脑前，继续努力。

Amit: I love it. We appreciate you. Thank you, Jose. We will catch you next week. Amit: 我喜欢。我们感谢你。谢谢你，Jose。我们下周再见。

Jose: Later. Jose: 待会儿见。

市场收盘与总结

Amit: All right, folks. I think that is it for today as we end out this market open. Amit: 好了，各位。我想今天的市场开盘就到此为止了。

One last piece of news that just came across my screen. 屏幕上刚刚弹出最后一条新闻。

Remember the crypto whale who went short Bitcoin before Trump spoke or before Trump tweeted on Friday. 还记得那个在特朗普讲话或周五特朗普发推之前做空比特币的加密货币巨鲸吗？

He just went long. He just went long. 他刚刚做多了。他刚刚做多了。

So that same blockchain address just went long Bitcoin at 110 110.8. 所以同一个区块链地址刚刚以110.8美元的价格做多比特币。

He went short at 120 on Friday. Covered, made 200 million, went short again at 116 three days ago, and he covered at 112, and now he's going long at 110. 他周五在120美元做空。平仓，赚了2亿美元，三天前又在116美元做空，然后在112美元平仓，现在他在110美元做多。

So maybe Baron Trump knows that at 3 p.m. in the Oval Office, Trump is going to say something important. 所以也许小特朗普知道下午3点在椭圆形办公室，特朗普会说些重要的事情。

But we got a little bit of green potentially. This is confirmed. Yes, the same blockchain address that went short. 但我们可能会看到一点上涨。这已得到证实。是的，同一个做空的区块链地址。

That's the cool thing about the transparency of these blockchains. 这就是这些区块链透明度的酷炫之处。

They are now going long. Now granted, I don't freaking know if this is actually related to Bitcoin or something. 他们现在正在做多。现在，我真的不知道这是否真的与比特币或什么有关。

Or related to what Trump is going to say, but Bitcoin right there. 110.4 is what you got. 或者与特朗普要说的话有关，但比特币就在那里。110.4就是你得到的。

CZ posted about it. CZ might get a pardon soon as well. CZ发帖谈论了这件事。CZ可能很快也会获得赦免。

CZ, do you guys know CZ is worth a hundred billion dollars? The founder of Binance. CZ，你们知道CZ身价千亿美元吗？币安的创始人。

He's I think he's the biggest crypto billionaire that's out there. 他是我认为那里最大的加密货币亿万富翁。

But yeah, I mean Binance was part of the reason why there was so much of a liquidation on Friday, but looks like he might be officially going long. 但是，是的，我的意思是币安是周五大量清算的部分原因，但看起来他可能正式做多了。

The rare earth stocks still getting hit today. I mean, they were recovering a little bit. 稀土股今天仍然受到打击。我的意思是，它们正在小幅反弹。

CRML is the only one that recovered. The rest of them are still pretty red. CRML是唯一一只反弹的。其余的仍然相当低迷。

Bitcoin miners turn data centers pretty much all still red on the day. 比特币矿商转型数据中心的公司今天大部分仍然下跌。

Not as red as they were before, but still red. 没有之前那么红，但仍然下跌。

And then the broader S&P holding up 0.29% on the day. That's what we got. 然后更广泛的标普 (Standard & Poor's: 标普) 今天上涨0.29%。这就是我们得到的。

All right, that is it for me. I will be back at 3:45. 好的，我今天就到这里。我将在3:45回来。

Do we have any earnings after hours? We have IBKR. 盘后有财报吗？我们有IBKR。

Outside of that, no earnings today. I think we will have Chris on for macro Thursday. 除此之外，今天没有财报。我想我们会请Chris来做宏观周四节目。

I'll confirm with Chris, but he should be on today, and we'll get into a bunch of different macro topics, and we'll keep going from there. 我会和Chris确认，但他今天应该会来，我们会讨论一系列不同的宏观话题，然后继续下去。

That's what we got. Word of the day. What do we got? Word of the day. 这就是我们得到的。今日词汇。我们有什么？今日词汇。

I don't think I've ever heard of this word. Um, spore. 我好像从没听过这个词。嗯，孢子。

Spore. It's got to be spore. This says spore. I'm going to be pissed off. 孢子。一定是孢子。这里写着孢子。我都要气死了。

It's got to be spore. 一定是孢子。

Voice: Spore. 旁白: 孢子。

Amit: Okay, it's kind of the same. A track or trail, especially that of a wild animal pursued as a game. Amit: 好的，差不多。一种踪迹或路径，特别是被作为猎物的野生动物留下的。

Okay. Okay, I've never heard of this word, but that is what you got. 好的。好的，我从未听过这个词，但这就是你得到的。

There you go. That's word of the day again. 瞧。那又是今天的词。

S&P 500 right there 29% holding on relatively strong. 标普500指数 (Standard & Poor's 500: 标普500指数) 上涨29%，保持相对强势。

I think a 0.3% day on the S&P would be good. 我认为标普 (Standard & Poor's: 标普) 上涨0.3%的一天会很好。

Robin Hood up 1.6. Palantir up 1.7. Grab a little recovery from 580 back to 587. Robinhood上涨1.6%。Palantir上涨1.7%。Grab从5.80美元小幅反弹至5.87美元。

AMD holding on, and then the S&P up 0.3, which is not too bad. AMD保持稳定，然后标普 (Standard & Poor's: 标普) 上涨0.3%，这还不错。

All right, that is what we got. Thank you everybody for being here. I'll be back tomorrow. 好的，这就是我们今天的内容。谢谢大家的到来。我明天会回来。

I did put out my first Substack yesterday. For those that want to read it, it was just a process on how I do research. 我昨天发布了我的第一篇Substack文章。对于想阅读的人来说，那只是我如何进行研究的过程。

So, it's called How I Approach My Deep Dives. If anyone wants to read it, feel free to read it. 所以，它叫做《我如何进行深度研究》。如果有人想读，请随意阅读。

We're going to have two deep dives come out tomorrow. So, the official ones will be out. 我们明天将发布两篇深度研究。所以，正式版本将会发布。

So, it's a pretty quick read, but I hopefully think it'll outline the three-step process I have to really looking at a company. 所以，它读起来很快，但我希望它能概述我真正研究一家公司的三步流程。

And again, for anyone who wants to subscribe, two deep dives will be out tomorrow. 再次强调，任何想订阅的人，明天将发布两篇深度研究。

Totally free, no paywall. And we will get it going on the substack. 完全免费，无付费墙。我们将在Substack上发布。

So there you go. Oh, did I say tomorrow? No, I meant I meant market close. 所以就是这样。哦，我说了明天吗？不，我的意思是，我是说收盘时。

We'll be back here. We'll be back for the market close. 我们会回到这里。我们会在收盘时回来。

We'll be back for the market close. 我们会在收盘时回来。

Dude, Steve went live to like one o'clock yesterday. This Steve is loving being live. 伙计，Steve昨天直播到一点钟。这个Steve非常喜欢直播。

He is absolutely loving being live because he just sits there and he talks, and then he sends me pictures of his eggs that he's eating this morning. 他非常喜欢直播，因为他只是坐在那里讲话，然后他给我发他今天早上吃的鸡蛋的照片。

He's definitely an egg guy. He's a milk and egg guy. 他绝对是个爱吃鸡蛋的人。他是个爱喝牛奶和吃鸡蛋的人。

He's a milk, egg, cookies, medium rare steak guy. 他是个爱牛奶、鸡蛋、饼干、五分熟牛排的人。

But no, he's loving it. He's loving going live and interacting. 但他很喜欢。他喜欢直播和互动。

And he had a great interview with Tanner yesterday. 他昨天和Tanner进行了一次很棒的采访。

So Oh, Steve and I are doing something. So Steve and I are going to start doing something on Thursdays. 所以，哦，Steve和我正在做些事情。所以Steve和我将在周四开始做些事情。

So, it's going to be hard for me to make his Saturday streams. 所以，我很难参加他周六的直播。

So, I told him, "Let's do something on Thursdays." 所以，我告诉他：“我们周四做点什么吧。”

So, yeah, Steve and I will probably be starting like a weekly Thursday thing where we're we'll just chop it up about markets and whatever else probably around 8:30 every Thursday. 所以，是的，Steve和我可能会开始一个每周四的节目，我们会在每周四大约8:30讨论市场和其他话题。

So, we'll have Chris on. I'll I'll confirm with Chris today, but we should have Chris on for the market close, and then I'll be on with Steve at 8:30, and then we'll be done for today. 所以，我们会请Chris来。我今天会和Chris确认，但Chris应该会来参加收盘节目，然后我会在8:30和Steve一起，然后我们今天就结束了。

That's what we got. All right. Thank everybody. Appreciate it. Thank you all for joining. 这就是我们得到的。好的。谢谢大家。感谢。谢谢大家的加入。

I'll be back on the market close. Bye everybody. Have a good one. 我会在收盘时回来。大家再见。祝你们一切顺利。