也许你能给我们稍微讲讲你是怎么挑选我们的演讲嘉宾的，以及你对此的构想。我是说，对于你们当中参与过 Ira 的人来说——这是一位因癌症过早去世的绅士，他的家人创立了一个叫作 Sohn 基金会的机构，他们会举办这个活动，最早始于林肯中心。他们会邀请这些投资经理。当时我还是个年轻的风投投资人，我收到了邀请。2015 年我出现在纽约林肯中心，我说亚马逊会成为一家万亿美元市值的公司，结果被全场嘲笑。呃，大卫·艾因霍恩（David Einhorn），他是我的朋友，但他当时完全错了，他说：“我了解万亿美元市值的公司。这家不是万亿美元市值的公司。”错了。事实证明那是一笔极好的下注。后来我又去了。2016 年我推荐了特斯拉，我们挑中了可转债。然后到了 2017 年，我想，“好吧，这就是我的——这就是——这就是它了。这是我的代表作。”我说：“人工智能就是未来。”然后我挑选了 Box。
英文原文
Maybe you could tell us a little bit about how you selected our presenters and your vision for this. I mean for any of you guys who've been involved in Ira this is a gentleman that passed away from cancer far too young and his family created this thing called the sone foundation and they would host this event and it started in Lincoln Center and they would ask these managers and so at the time I was like a young venture investor and I got this invite and I showed up in New York at Lincoln Center in 2015 and I said Amazon's going to be a trillion dollar company and I was laughed out of the room. Uh David Einhorn, who's a friend of mine, but who was totally wrong, said, "I know trillion dollar companies. This is not a trillion dollar company." Wrong. It turned out to be a great bet. I went back. I did Tesla in 2016. We picked the converts. And then in 2017, I was like, "All right, this is my this is this is it. This is my magnumopus." And I said, "AI is the future." And then I picked box.我心想，如果我当时选的是英伟达，我就会成为 Sohn 的传奇人物，我就可以退休了。不管怎样，我们想重现 Sohn 那样的活动，开始把这些优秀的投资经理请来，他们做出出色的选股，为他们的 LP 赚大钱。他们没有分发渠道，所以这只是一个去认识其中一些名字的机会。你不用在 CNBC 上看到他们。你会在这里越来越频繁地看到他们。我们也可以直接各抒己见。
英文原文
I was like, if I had just picked Nvidia, I would have been an Irish legend legend and I could have retired. Anyway, so we wanted to recreate Iris and start to get these great managers who are making great picks, making a ton of money for their LPs. They don't get the distribution and so it's just a chance to like get to know some of these names. You don't have to see them on CNBC. You'll see them here more and more often. And we can just get to Opine.放视频。
英文原文
>> Roll the video.好的。女士们先生们，欢迎来到最佳投资理念推介环节。让我们来见见我们的选手。
英文原文
>> Yeah. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the best ideas pitch. Let's meet our contestants.任何人都应该能够在世界任何地方、任何时间、7×24 小时，仅凭网络连接和口袋里的一部手机，交易任何资产。
英文原文
>> Anyone should be able to trade any asset anywhere in the world, anytime, 24/7, with just an internet connection and a phone in their pocket.我们正在这里从零开始构建一个全新的金融体系。
英文原文
>> We're building a new financial system from the ground up here.人们会想要持有股票，而且这会很有趣。在未来几年里，企业将进行创新并创造产品和应用，希望这就是像我们这样的多空仓投资经理能够大赚一笔的地方。
英文原文
>> People are going to want to own equities, and it's going to be fun. In the next couple years, companies going to innovate and create products and applications, and that's where hopefully long short managers like us can make a boatload of money.我的基金 EcoR1 Capital 总部设在旧金山，以一种略微不同的方式看待生物科技领域的投资。我们在寻找未受关注、不受青睐、被误解的生物科技公司。
英文原文
>> My fund, Eco R1 Capital, which is based in San Francisco, thinks of investing in biotech in a slightly different way. We're looking for unfollowed, unloved, misunderstood biotech companies.对于这类公司来说，现在是一个绝佳的时刻。发生了一次结构性且永久性的认知转变，国会两党都将大力支持核能。
英文原文
>> It's an amazing moment in time for those types of companies. There's been a structural and permanent perception shift where both sides of the aisle are going to be leaning into nuclear in a big way.我极为乐观。这一切都让我只想把风险偏好拉到最大。
英文原文
>> I'm massively optimistic. You know, all of this leads me to just the maximum risk on.推介：美高梅（MGM）
感谢 Besties 邀请我。显然，你们举办了一场极棒的活动。我很高兴来到这里。呃，对于不认识我的人，呃，我在纽约掌管一家规模 40 亿美元的机构，名叫 Surretta Capital。呃，在创立我的公司之前，我曾负责乔治·索罗斯的股票业务。呃，之后我担任史蒂夫·科恩的首席投资官。呃，到现在我已经做了 29 年对冲基金了。所以，呃，在我的同行圈子里绝对算年纪偏大的。呃，所以我当时就在想，你们知道，我掌管的是一只通用型基金。呃，你们知道，我们持有不少科技股，但你们知道，面对这里的听众，让我来推介一只科技股绝对是愚蠢透顶的。呃，所以我当时在想还有什么别的。你们知道，显而易见，这次大会除了科技之外的主题就是扑克。所以我要向你们推介美高梅（MGM）。现在你们大多数人都知道美高梅，呃，你们会把它看作是拉斯维加斯的公司。他们在拉斯维加斯拥有 13 处物业。呃，他们是其中之一——他们和凯撒（Caesars）是拉斯维加斯最大的两家赌场资产持有者。呃，现在如果你注意到的话，前几天凯撒被收购了。呃，所以我们认为拉斯维加斯实际上正开始好转。呃，但我来这里并不是因为拉斯维加斯才推介美高梅的。我要告诉你们的是，有几件事我们注意到了。一是这家公司一直非常积极——股票最近被巴里·迪勒（Barry Diller）非常积极地买入。呃，巴里现在拥有该公司 26% 的股份。呃，我是两周前准备这份演示文稿的。昨天他实际上对这家公司发出了收购要约。好的。所以当我准备演示文稿时，股价大约在 37 美元。现在处于 40 多美元的高位。他出价 48 美元。好的。我是不会把我的股票卖给他的。
英文原文
>> Thanks the besties for having me. And this is obviously a fabulous event you guys have put on. I'm happy to be here. Um, for those of you who don't know me, um, I run a $4 billion firm in New York called Serreta Capital. Um, before founding my firm, I was, uh, I ran the equities business for George Soros. Uh, I was then CIO for Steve Cohen. Uh, and I've been doing hedge funds now for 29 years. So, um, definitely on the older edge of my my pure group. Um, so I was thinking about, you know, I run a generalist fund. Um, and you know, we own a bunch of tech stocks, but you know, given this audience here, for me to pitch a tech stock would be absolutely completely stupid. Um, so I was thinking about what else. And you know, obviously the theme of this conference besides tech is poker. So I'm going to pitch to you MGM. Now most of you know MGM as uh you think about it as the Vegas um company. They own 13 properties in Vegas. Um they're one they're them and Caesars are the two largest owners of uh casino assets in Vegas. Um now if you notice um the other day um Caesars got taken out. Um and so we think Vegas is actually starting to improve. Um but I'm not here to pitch MGM because of Vegas. What I'm going to tell you is there's a couple of things we noticed. One is this company's been very aggressively been stock's been aggressively acquired by Barry Dillard lately. Um Barry now owns 26% of the company. Um now I put this presentation together two weeks ago. Yesterday he actually bid for the company. Okay. So when I put the presentation together the stock was about $37. It's now high40s. He bid $48. Okay. I would not sell my shares to him.我们是什么时候拿到这份演示文稿的？我们拿得够早以至于能进行交易吗？
英文原文
>> When did we get this presentation? Did we get it early enough to trans?呃，我绝对不会把他的——我绝对一秒钟都不会把我的股票卖给他。原因还在于除了他在买入股票之外，公司自己也一直在回购股票。我极少见过一家公司在 6 年内回购了一半的流通股。所以你看到传奇人物巴里·迪勒在积极买入该股票，而且这现在也占到了他资产净值的 80%。好的。大多数人认为巴里·迪勒是 ABC 的制片人。他创办了 IAC，拥有像 Expedia 这样的资产，而现在他成了一个赌场玩家。这里到底发生了什么？所以我们花了大量时间问自己为什么，以及为什么是美高梅拥有两处隐性资产。好的。第一处是——这也是我们对该股票估值的底牌。你把拉斯维加斯的资产加上中国，大概能得到 60 美元出头的低位。所以比起 48 美元，或者我开始做这个时的 37 美元，回报极佳。他们现在拥有的是在日本大阪开设赌场的牌照。日本在几年前在全国进行了一整轮公投。他们有都道府县。各都道府县进行了投票。唯一决定开设赌场的是大阪。现在大阪是——这就是该资产未来的样子。它将于 2030 年开业。如果你去看公司的幻灯片演示，他们稍微提到了这一点，但并没有真正谈论它。呃，对于各位来说，日本——抱歉，我不知道，这个翻页非常慢。呃，日本实际上有着相当大的博彩市场。他们有柏青哥店，还有赛马。那大约是一个 400 亿美元的市场。如果你看看澳门的市场，那是 300 亿美元。而如果你看看拉斯维加斯，只有 100 亿美元。所以，这可能是一个巨大的机遇。呃，我们估计他们将实现大约 20 亿美元的息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）。他们拥有该物业 40% 的股权。呃，他们还能为此获得一笔管理费。呃，如果你再看看大阪所处的位置，这是一个极佳的——日本人的确喜欢博彩，但中国人是真正的大赌客。好的。所以，如果你看它距离上海的距离，比到澳门和新加坡都要近，而那两个是亚洲的两大博彩去处。从北京出发，距离和到澳门大致相同，显然比去新加坡要近得多。所以，如果你想度周末去博彩，而你住在上海或北京，大阪非常合适。它也是一个第一世界国家。呃，如果你作为投资人去想，你会希望把钱放在哪里？看，澳门有它自己的问题。那是一个低估值倍数的行业。而这里是日本。这是一个第一世界国家。所以，我们认为巴里·迪勒懂博彩。他懂赌场。但他现在真正做的是试图把这家公司收入囊中，以获取日本的这个机遇，我们认为这会让股价翻倍不止。
英文原文
>> Uh I would not sell his I would not sell my stock to him for a second. And the reason is also besides him buying the stock, the company's also been buying the stock. Rarely have I ever seen a company in 6 years buy half their float back. So you have Barry Diller who's the legend aggressively buying the stock and it's also now 80% of his NAV. Okay. So you most people think of Barry Diller as the ABC producer. He did I which owned assets like Expedia and now he's a casino guy. What is going on here? So we spent a lot of time um asking ourselves why um and why is MGM has two hidden assets. Okay. The first one is, and this is sort of our the punchline of what we think the stock is worth. So you add the Vegas assets plus China, you get about little low60s. So from $48 or 37 when I started this, great return. What is they what they have now is a license to open a casino in Aaka, Japan. Japan a couple years ago went through a whole referendum around the country. They have prefixures. The prefixures voted. The only one that decided to own open a casino is Osaka. Now Osaka is and this is what the asset's going to look like. It's going to open in 2030. If you go to the company slide presentations, they sort of mention this, but they're not really talking about it. Um, Japan, just for you people, um, sorry, I don't know, this is very slow. Um, Japan actually has a reasonably large gambling market. They have pachinko parlors and they have horses. That's about a $40 billion market. If you look at the market in Macau, that's $30 billion. And if you look at Vegas, it's only $10 billion. So, this could be a massive opportunity. Um, you know, we're estimating they'll do about $2 billion of IBIDA. They own 40% of the property. Um, they also get a management fee for this. Um, if you also look at where Osaka is located, it's a great, you know, so the Japanese like to gamble, but the Chinese really gamble. Okay. So, if you look at where it is from Shanghai, it's shorter than Macau and Singapore, which are the two big gaming options in Asia. And from and from Beijing, about the same distance as Macau, and obviously much shorter than going to Singapore. So, if you want to go gambling for a weekend and you live in Shanghai, live in Beijing, Osaka is great. It's also a first world nation. Um, and if you think about as an investor, where would you want to have your money? Look, Macau has issues. It's a low multiple business. This is Japan. It's a first world country. So, we think Barry Diller is understands gambling. He understands casinos. But what he's really doing is now trying to pick off the company to get the Japanese opportunity which we think is worth will more than double the stock.最后一个期权——我尽量讲得简单点。我喜欢这个推介的地方就在于它非常简单。这笔账算起来并不难。美高梅已经建成了某——他们在输出品牌，正在迪拜建造一处物业。好的。它将是一个宏大的综合体。里面有一家 Aria，有一家美高梅，还有一家百乐宫（Bellagio）。目前迪拜赌博是违法的。好的。但他们在这座建筑里悄悄留出了 30 万平方英尺的空间。那么，如果有一天迪拜决定将赌博合法化，猜猜会开在哪里？就在那里。
英文原文
The final option and I'm keeping this simple. What I love about this pitch is it's really simple. It's not that hard to do the math. MGM is built somebody they're they're they're branding they're building a property in Dubai. Okay. Now it's going to it's a grand complex. It has an Arya. It has an MGM and it has a Bellagio. Gambling is illegal in Dubai right now. Okay. But they have snuck in this building 300,000 square ft of cu of space. Well, one day if Dubai decides to legalize gambling, guess where it's going? Right there.明年，两——抱歉，距现在两年后，永利（Wynn）将在一个叫阿尔玛扬（Al Marjan）的地方开设一家赌场，那里距离迪拜 45 分钟路程。现在，我们当中任何想去迪拜赌博的人——去阿尔玛扬有点麻烦，我们都会想来这里。所以，我们认为存在这种可能性，尤其是当永利开业的时候。而且看，战争也有可能——迪拜想要重新树立自己的地位，他们可能会在迪拜开设赌场，你知道那会值多少钱。所以当你把拉斯维加斯的资产算进去（我们认为大约值 60 美元），把日本算进去（我们认为大约值 50 块钱），如果迪拜成真，那又值另外的 40 或 50 美元。所以我们认为这只股票是一个
英文原文
Next year, two, sorry, two years from now, win is going to open a casino in a place called Ararjan, which is 45 minutes away from Dubai. Now, any of us who want to go gambling in Dubai, we arjan's a bit of a pain in the ass to get to, we're going to want to go here. So, we think there's a chance that especially when win opens. Also look, there's a possibility of the war, you know, Dubai wants to reestablish themselves that they open a casino in um Dubai and you know what that would be worth. So when you take the Vegas assets, which we think are worth about 60, when you take Japan, which we think is worth about 50 bucks, if Dubai happens, that's worth another $40 or $50. So we think the stock is a翻三倍。
英文原文
triple.记住，Barry 正在竞购这家公司。好吧，他不是战略买家。他是一个财务买家，他这么做是为了赚钱。所以，我认为这家公司现在进入了被收购博弈的状态（in play）。我不知道最终会如何演变，但如果你持有股票，不要卖掉它们。现在的风险收益比令人难以置信，因为，你知道的，我实话告诉你，我认为这只股票完全可以值 100 以上，甚至可能值 150。而现在，Barry Diller 给出了一个确定性的报价，基本在相同的价格上持有了公司 26% 的股份。所以我认为这是一个很棒的想法。
英文原文
Bar remember Barry's bidding for the company. Okay, he is not a strategic buyer. He is a financial buyer and he's doing it to get rich. So therefore, I think this company is now in play. I don't know how it's all going to play out, but if you own shares, don't tend to them. And the riskreward is incredible right now because, you know, I'm telling you, I think the stock could be easily worth over 100, could be worth 150. And now you have Barry Diller who is a has a firm bid owns 26% of the company basically at the same price. So I think this is a cool idea.讲得好。好了，呃，有谁——我们提两个问题，呃，对，我们会把两个问题同时提给你，以提高效率。
英文原文
>> Well done. Okay. Uh anybody let's uh do two questions and uh yeah we'll put we'll give you both questions at the same time for efficiency.你在多大程度上研究过赌博业务之外的资产变现情况？我听某人说过，Barry Diller 花了大量时间试图重塑这些物业的娱乐板块。他积极参与董事会，他们试图确认娱乐物业——娱乐价值被严重低估了，他们原本可以在每……上赚更多。
英文原文
>> How much have you looked at like the monetization of the assets outside of gambling? I had heard from someone that Barry Diller was spending a lot of time trying to reinvent the entertainment piece of the properties. he was active on the board and they were trying to identify that the entertainment property is way the entertainment value is way undermonetized and they could be making a lot more per好的，先别回答。这是第一个问题。
英文原文
>> Okay, don't answer yet. That's question one.然后第二个问题是，当你进行国际扩张时，你如何扩大客户信用规模？因为这往往是推动……
英文原文
>> And then question two is how when you expand internationally do you scale customer credit because that tends to be the thing that drives你知道的，推动人们再回来的因素，还有……
英文原文
>> you know people to come back and嗯，显然米高梅（MGM）——先让我回答你的问题。米高梅拥有庞大的客户数据库，对吧？所以，你知道，我推测拉斯维加斯的物业有来自中国、来自嗯日本的客户。他们会利用那个数据库来做这件事。他们还有一个忠诚度计划。嗯，我之前不幸投资了一家叫 Rio 的公司，就是拉斯维加斯的 Rio。嗯，是在他们分拆——在 Caesar's 与 El Dorado 合并时买下的。嗯，他们必须剥离一项资产。嗯，那就是——那就是呃 Rio。我们——我和几个朋友做了一笔投资，我们当时以每平方英尺 200 美元的价格买下了那个物业。我们遗漏的事情是，当你脱离 Caesars 时，你就失去了忠诚度计划，而那最终——现场观众提两个简短的问题。
英文原文
>> well obviously MGM let me start with your question first. MGM has a massive database of customers, right? So, you know, I assume the Vegas properties have guys that come from China, they come from um Japan. They'll use that database to do it. They also have a loyalty program. Um I unfortunately made a bad investment in a company called Rio, the Rio, which was in Vegas. Um which we bought when they separate when Caesar's merged with El Dorado. Um they had to shed an asset. Um that was that was uh the Rio. We I did an investment with a couple of friends and we were buying the thing at $200 per square foot. The thing we forgot was when you separated from Caesars, you lost the loyalty program and that ended up two quick questions from the audience.等等，我得先问 Kyle 的问题。
英文原文
>> Wait, I got to ask Kyle's question.稍等。提问，然后由观众提问。
英文原文
>> Hold on. Question and then from the audience.让我先回答他的。
英文原文
>> Let me get his first.那个娱乐方面的问题。
英文原文
>> The entertainment question.我不知道答案。我不知道那个问题的答案。如果——如果他能把它们变得更好，这会有帮助。
英文原文
>> I don't know the answer. I don't know the answer to that. If it's if he can make them better, it will help.但正如我所说的，这其实不是拉斯维加斯的逻辑。这是一个亚洲赌场的投资逻辑，并且……
英文原文
>> But as I'm saying, this is not really a Vegas. This is an Asian casino play that而且如果——如果你看他们的演示文稿，那真的很棒。
英文原文
>> the and if if you look at their presentations which is really cool.他们没有——他们几乎没怎么提它。所以我们所发生的事情之一，除此以外，我们希望催化剂——所以，看，我曾在 SACE 工作，我们关注的重点之一就是催化剂路径。
英文原文
>> They are not they barely mention it. So what one of the things we happened besides we were hoping one of the cat so looked I worked at SACE and one of the things we focus on is catalyst path.那么当时的催化剂路径是什么？催化剂路径就是他们会开一个投资者日等等等等。Barry 刚刚亮出了底牌。所以，嗯，但你知道……
英文原文
>> So what was the catalyst path? The catalyst path was they would have an investor day blah blah blah. Barry just showed his cards. So, um, but you know,Aaron，两个问题。Caesars 离开了迪拜，等不到牌照。为什么米高梅会有所不同？这是第一个问题。
英文原文
>> Aaron, two questions. Caesars left Dubai waiting for a license. Why would this be different for MGM? That's question one.然后第二个问题是，大阪赌场是在 2023 年获得批准的。为什么市场在这次竞购之前一直忽视这项隐藏资产？
英文原文
>> And then question two is the Osaka Casino was approved in 2023. Why was the market ignoring this hidden asset until the bid?当然。让我来回答这个。那么，这个想法另一个很酷的地方在于，我做这个已经 29 年了。嗯，永利（Wynn）——嗯，他们开设了澳门物业。永利最初是拉斯维加斯的物业，然后进军澳门。市场大约在它开业前 3 年开始关注它。嗯，所以答案是他们理应去关注。现实情况是，往往是在它开业前大约 3 年。好吧，我们几乎就在那个时间窗口内了，这就是为什么我们认为在机会上这正是合适的时期。嗯，我，你知道，关于 Caesars 的那个问题，看，这是一个期权。正如我告诉你的，有人出资为他们建了这个项目。他们在替他们运营，并且他们足够聪明地预留了 300,000 平方英尺的空置空间，以防他们拿到赌场牌照。好吧，如果那成真了，太棒了。如果没成，你知道的，你仍然能让你的资金翻倍、翻不止一倍。所以，你知道的，你——如果那发生了，你能赚三倍。
英文原文
>> Sure. Let me answer this. So, what's also cool about this idea was, so I've been doing this for 29 years. um win um they opened Macau. So Win started as a Vegas property then opened Macau. The market started caring about it about 3 years before it opened. Um so that the answer is they should care about it. The reality is it's tends to be about 3 years before it opens. Well, we're almost in that time frame, which is why we think it's opportunistically the right period of time. Um I, you know, regarding the question with Caesars, look, this is an option. As I told you, somebody built this project for them. They are running it for them and they were intelligent enough to leave 300,000 square ft of empty space in case they get a casino. Well, if that happens, great. If it doesn't, you know, you're still going to double more than double your money. So, you know, you if if it happens, you triple your money.免费期权。你是说……
英文原文
>> Free option. You're saying这是一个免费期权。
英文原文
>> it's free option.讲得好。大家热烈鼓掌。
英文原文
>> Well done. Big round of applause.谢谢大家。非常感谢。
英文原文
>> Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.讲得不错，Aaron。下一位，Daniel。
英文原文
>> Nicely done, Aaron. Next up, Daniel.电力周期的剖析与 Talon Energy
好久不见。
今天我们要讲的是 Talon Energy。呃，但首先，电力周期的剖析。
通常一个电力周期是这样的：在正常时期，电力需求的增长大致与 GDP 同步。所以，如果 GDP 增长 2%，电力需求就增长 2。如果 GDP 增长 3%，电力需求就增长 3。而在某些特定时期，我们会迎来技术突破，且许多这类技术突破都是非常高耗能的。因此电力需求会暴增，而一旦所有人采纳了该项技术，它就会回落到原本的与 GDP 增长相挂钩的算法水平，然后进入能效阶段，也就是大家说“让我们尝试节约，想方设法减少用电”，接着周期又重新开始。
所以，你知道的，在历史上，推动电力需求暴涨的重大技术繁荣就是家用电器和空调。每个人都必须买电热水壶和空调。然后在 70 年代、80 年代和 90 年代，需求再次恢复正常。但随后的 2000 年代全都是围绕能效展开的。你知道的，我们有了像 LED 照明、智能暖通空调（HVAC）、贴膜车窗/隔热窗、智能电子产品等。与此同时，正如我之前所说，我们当时在拆除所有高能耗的基础设施，比如铝冶炼厂，并搬迁到中国。因此，我们经历了整整二十年电力需求实际零增长的时期。
而现在我们正刚刚走出这一阶段，重新开启一个技术周期，在这个周期中，电力需求将真正开始从大家在屏幕上看到的这种略高于 2% 的数字中爆发。
英文原文
>> Long time no see. So, today we're doing talent energy. Uh, but first, the anatomy of a power cycle. So, a power cycle typically goes like this. In normal times, power demand grows about GDP. So, if GDP grows 2%, power demand grows two. If GDP grows three, power demand goes three. And there's moments in time where we get technological breakthroughs and a lot of those technological breakthroughs are very power intensive. So power demand spikes and once everybody adopts that technology it trends back down to its onal algorithm GDP growth and then you go through the efficiencies phase where we say let's try to conserve and figure out ways to consume less power and then the cycle starts all over again. So, you know, in history, the big technological boom that sent power demand skyrocketing was appliances and air conditioning. Everybody had to get their kettles and and the aircon. Then in the 70s and 80s and 90s, demand normalized again. But then the 2000s were all about efficiencies. You know, we had like LED lighting, smart HVAC, tinted windows, smart electronics. And at the same time, as I said earlier, we were like, you know, ripping down all our power- hungry infrastructure like aluminum smelters and moving over China. So, we had two decades of effectively no power demand. And now we're just coming out of it and starting a technological cycle again where power demand is going to really start to explode from these sort of high 2% numbers you're seeing on the screen.现在，我想在此说一件极其重要的事情。
我们不需要人工智能的需求，就能让电力市场在未来 20 年保持极其紧张。
人工智能的需求只是起到了超级助推器的作用。它所做的仅此而已。而且它造成了短缺。所以请记住这一点。
在我职业生涯的早期，我曾与 Sam Zell 一起参加过一个专题讨论会。有趣的是，那是一个关于蒙古投资机会的讨论会。我当时在考察一座铜矿，而他正在考察房地产。他说过一句话，贯穿并影响了我的整个职业生涯，他说：“如果你能以低于重置成本的价格，购买一项在未来必不可少、且届时我们将需要为其建设新产能的硬资产，那么你就要以低于重置成本的折扣买下那项资产。你持有它，并在市场觉醒时以远高于重置成本的大幅溢价将其卖出。”这正是我们在 Equity Office Properties 上所做的。在市场见顶时卖出，但买入时是低于重置价值的折扣价。
Talon Energy 是一家电力生产商。他们拥有 2 吉瓦（gigawatts）的核电，并且拥有 6 吉瓦的天然气基荷电力。今天在股市中，作为一笔不错的投机交易，你可以按 250 亿美元的企业价值收购这家公司。其重置成本为 450 亿。因为他们背负着债务，这意味着股票价值——仅仅为了达到重置成本——相比目前的交易价格就能翻上一倍多。而如果你遵循 Sam 的这套打法，那么我们最终将以远高于重置价值的大幅溢价结束这个周期。
英文原文
Now, I want to say something right now that is incredibly important. We do not need AI demand to keep the power markets incredibly tight for the next 20 years. AI demand just turbocharges. That's all it does. And it creates shortages. So just remember that. Early in my career, I was on a panel with Sam Zel. Interestingly, it was a panel on opportunities in Mongolia. I was looking at a copper mine and he was looking at real estate. There was one thing he said that stuck with me for the rest of my career is he said, "If you can buy an asset, a hard asset at below replacement cost for an asset that's going to be needed in the future where we're going to need to build new capacity of that asset. Then you buy that asset at the discount to replacement cost. You hold it and you sell it at a big premium to replacement cost when the market wakes up. That's exactly we did with Equity Office properties. Sold it at the peak of the market but bought it at a discount to replacement value. Talon Energy is a power producer. They have 2 gawatts of nuclear power and they've got 6 gawatt of natural gas base load power. Today in the stock market, as a good speculation, you could purchase this company at a $25 billion enterprise value. the replacement cost is 45 billion. And because they've got debt, it means that the equity value uh just to get to replacement cost uh is more than a double uh from where it's trading today. And if you follow Sam's playbook, then we ultimately end this cycle at a big premium to replacement value.所以当我看到这一点时，我说美国在电力方面的计划必须是这样：让美国再次伟大。照搬中国。如果你看看中国在过去 20 年里的所作所为，我们在这个周期开始时，发电量是中国当时发电量的 2 倍。快进到今天，中国的发电装机容量已经是我们的三倍。
现在，如果你相信人工智能将负责带来科学突破，你要么拥有它，要么就无法拥有那些科学突破。如果你相信人工智能将推动机器人技术，你要么拥有它，要么就无法从机器人那里获得那种生产力。如果你相信人工智能将对国家安全和军事事务有所帮助，那么你要么拥有它，要么你就完蛋了。
因此，这是一场我们必须进行的绝对强制性的建设，否则我们就会落后，因为归根结底，数据中心到底是什么？你知道，在我的领域，在大宗商品领域，我眼中的数据中心与……完全是一回事。
英文原文
So when I see this, I say the plan for America on the power side has to be this. Make America great again. Copy China. If you look what China did over the last 20 years, we started out this cycle with having 2x the power generation that China had. Fast forward to today, China has three times the power generation capacity that we have. Now, if you believe that artificial intelligence is going to be responsible for scientific breakthroughs, you either have it or you don't have the scientific breakthroughs. If you believe that artificial intelligence is going to drive robotics, you either have it or you don't have that productivity from the robots. If you believe that artificial intelligence is going to be helpful for national security and military affairs, then you either have it or you're dead. And so this is an absolutely mandatory buildout that we have to do otherwise we're going to fall behind because at the end of the day what is a data center? You know in my world in the commodities world I look at a data center as the exact same thing as a算力即炼厂与电力供应链危机
炼厂。在传统的碳氢化合物炼厂中，你投入原油，将其提炼为航空燃油或汽车汽油。而在数据中心，你输入电力，在另一端产出的不是汽油或航油，而是光子、Token 或智能——随你怎么称呼它，但本质是一样的。这是一笔庞大的重资产投资，每吉瓦耗资 500 亿美元，而电力就像石油一样，是这座炼厂的投入原料。
英文原文
refinery. In a traditional hydrocarbon refinery you put oil in crude oil in you refine it into jet fuel or gasoline for your car. With a data center, you put electricity in and on the other end instead of gasoline or jet fuel out comes photons or tokens or intelligence, whatever you want to call it, but it's the same thing. Big capital inensive asset, $50 billion per gawatt and power just like electricity, just like oil is the input to that refinery.黄仁勋最近被引述说，我们需要比目前多一千倍的电力。如果这哪怕有一点属实，我们就需要你能想象到的每一种电源。我们需要数百吉瓦的核电，需要太阳能，需要轨道电力，如果这哪怕有一丁点属实，我们全都需要。
英文原文
So, here's Jensen and uh he was just recently quoted that we need a thousand times more power than we currently have. Now, if that's remotely true, we need every single source of power that you can imagine. We need hundreds of gigawatts of nuclear, we need solar, we need orbital, we need it all, if this is even remotely true.但正如我们之前谈到的，挑战在于供应链，对吧？所有这些——数据中心在竞争关键矿物供应链，而太空发射和轨道数据中心同样需要这些。发电厂需要发射火箭所用的全部同种镍基高温合金，以及用于这些光伏电池的白银。因此，到处都将出现短缺，处处都会发生延误。我的观点是，在可预见的未来，我们需要倾尽所能拿出每一种解决方案。
英文原文
But the challenge as we spoke about before is the supply chain, right? All of these, you know, a data center competes for the same supply chain of the critical minerals that space launches and orbital data centers do. Power plants need all the same nickel super alloys that it takes to launch rockets and the silver that goes into these photovalttaic cells. And so and so there's going to be shortages of everything and delays everywhere. And my point here is we are just going to need every solution that we can throw at this for the foreseeable future.电网负荷激增与科技巨头的购电协议
这里展示的是美国一个叫 PJM 的小区域——宾夕法尼亚、新泽西、马里兰。这是来自电网运营商的一份预测，他们表示未来 10 年内，仅在 PJM 这一小块美国区域，我们将需要 106 吉瓦的新增电力。在以地质尺度衡量的漫长时间里，10 年就像明天早晨一样。我们都太习惯于互联网时间了——你按下一个按钮，外卖就送到了，或者汽车两秒钟内就来接你。但建设基础设施是以地质时间运行的，10 年内建成 106 吉瓦简直就相当于眼前的一纳秒。
英文原文
So here's a little region in the US called the PJM, Pennsylvania, Jersey, Maryland. Uh this is a forecast from the grid operator where they say that over the next 10 years we're going to need 106 gawatts of new power in the PJM in just one little area of the US. Now in 10 years in geological time that's like tomorrow morning right we're all so used to internet time you press a button and you get your food delivered to you or your car picks you up in two seconds you know building infrastructure happens in geological time 10 years to build out 106 gawatt is literally a nancond from now你看那些燃煤电厂退役计划，我们绝不可能关停那些煤电厂，因为根本不可能在 10 年内建起 100 吉瓦的电力——这相当于当今日本全国的用电规模，却仅仅是为了美国这么一小块地方。我想说的是，那些懂得供应链以及建设这一切需要付出什么的人，大家都处于恐慌状态，因为我们知道自己根本没有足够的原材料来满足即将到来的这种级别的需求。因此，这将导致现有产能和电价持续非常吃紧。
英文原文
and you know you see that thermal coal retirements we ain't retiring those coal plants because there's no world where we're going to be building 100 gawatt in 10 years that's the size of what Japan consumes today for one little part of the US. And you know what I'll say is those that understand the supply chain and what goes into building all this, everybody's in panic mode because we know that we don't have the raw materials to meet this level of demand that's coming our way. So that's going to keep existing capacity and power prices very tight.现在数据中心和超大规模云厂商都在恐慌。他们正竭尽全力，试图通过 20 年期固定价格的长期 PPA（购电协议）来锁定尽可能多的电力。有一个著名的例子，我以前以为微软是一家绿色环保公司，但他们却跑去说服了星座能源公司（Constellation Energy），也就是拥有三哩岛核反应堆的那家公司——就是发生过堆芯熔毁事故、导致核电背负了 30 年恶名的那个三哩岛。是微软告诉他们必须把它重新启动。
英文原文
Now the data center and the hyperscalers are in a panic. They're trying everything they can to source as much power as they can under long-term PPAs power purchase price agreements at fixed prices for 20 years. There's a famous example, you know, I thought Microsoft was a green company, but they went and convinced Constellation Energy, which is a company that owns the 3M island nuclear reactor, you know, the one that melted down and created, you know, the nuclear meltdown that gave nuclear a bad name for 30 years. It was Microsoft that told them they needed to start it up.为了刺激、激发他们掏腰包去启动这个反应堆的冲动，微软表示：“电价维持在每兆瓦时 50 美元，我们给你们每年支付 100 美元，承诺 20 年的最低收购保底价，只为让你们把它开起来。”事实就是如此：微软 Azure 为你带来三哩岛核电。
英文原文
And in order to incentivize to stimulate their hand to wallet reflex to start this thing up, they said, "Power prices stay $50 a megawatt hour. We'll pay you a hundred a year for 20 years minimum price for you guys to start this up." And so here we have it. Uh 3M Island brought to you by Microsoft Azure.所以，达成这类交易越来越难了，因为监管机构正在质问：“等一下，如果你们把电网上的这些电全都抽走供你们的数据中心使用，那我们该如何为我们的居民客户供暖？”因此，我们正步入我所称的关键时刻。
英文原文
So, you know, it's getting harder to do these deals because the regulators are saying, "Wait a minute. If you're taking all this power off the grid for your data center, how are we going to heat the homes of our customers?" And so, uh, you know, it we're getting ourselves into the moment of what I call crunch time.Talon 的估值与三种情景
最后总结一下，这是关于 Talon 的具体数字。今天该股票大概在 300 多美元的高位。如果他们什么都不做，完全什么都不做，就待在那儿正常经营业务，坐等与亚马逊的数据中心合同生效，他们每年就能产生每股 50 美元的自由现金流。再次强调，股价处于 300 多美元的高位，所以大约是 7 倍自由现金流。在美国，优质基础设施资产的交易估值大约是 15 倍。所以这相当不错，管理层基本只需干坐着什么都不干，你就能获得一倍的翻倍回报。
英文原文
So, just to finish up, uh, here are the numbers on Talon. Um, the stock today is sort of in the high 300s. If they just do absolutely nothing, just absolutely nothing, just sit there and run the business, let their Amazon data center contract roll up, these guys will be generating $50 a share of free cash flow per year. Again, the stock is in the high 300. So, it's about seven times free cash flow. Good infrastructure assets in the US, traded about 15 times. So, that's pretty good. You get a double for basically management just sitting around and doing nothing.但如果他们继续设法以溢价与数据中心签订合同，或者电价上涨……我的意思是，目前令人惊讶的是，在他们开展业务的 PJM 地区，电价仍然过低，不足以刺激新增产能。经济账仍然算不过来，这实在令人费解。因此，如果电价稍微上涨一点，他们达成更多交易，经常性年度自由现金流就能达到每股 70 美元；给它 15 倍的估值乘数，那就是 1050 美元。
英文原文
But if they continue to figure out ways to sign contracts with data centers at premium prices or if power prices go up. I mean the amazing thing right now is in the PJM where these guys operate, the power price is still too low to stimulate new capacity. The math still doesn't work, which is really mindboggling. So if power prices go up a bit, they do more deals, you get to $70 a share of recurring annual free cash flow, put a 15 multiple on that, that's,50.但接着，如果他们进入电厂建设领域呢，对吧？现在监管机构正让这些公司坐到同一个房间里，电力生产商、数据中心，坐进一个房间达成协议，以便你们建设电力设施并获得良好回报，而数据中心获得电力也能获得良好回报。Talon 正处于能够做到这一点的极佳领先位置。如果我们所需的 100 吉瓦电力中，他们仅仅建设约 4 吉瓦，自由现金流就能达到每股超过 100 美元。股价今天在 300 多美元的高位。所以去买入这只股票吧，这是一笔不错的投机标的，我们可以再聊聊。
英文原文
But then if they get into building power plants, right? And right now the regulator is telling these companies to go sit in a room, power producer, data center, come in a room, make a deal so that you build power and get a good return on it. And the data center gets their power gets a good return on it. And Talon is in a pole position to be able to do this. If they just build like 4 gawatt of the 100 gawatts that we need, you could get up to, you know, over $100 a share of free cash flow. The stocks in the high30s today. So, uh, go and buy the shares. It's a good speculation and, um, we can chat.问答与讨论：监管风险与替代方案
好吧。不构成财务建议。加文，请讲。
英文原文
>> All right. Not financial advice. Gavin, go.加文，请讲。
英文原文
>> Gav and go.我只是非常好奇，你如何看待这其中的监管风险？谁都不喜欢自己的电费上涨。AI 正日益成为一个政治议题，你具体如何看待这种风险？
英文原文
>> I just, just very curious like how do you think about regulatory risks here? Nobody likes their electricity prices going up. AI is an increasingly political issue just like how do you think about that risk?我们需要 AI，我们必须解决这个问题。在这方面有不同的解决办法，对吧？我个人的看法是，在高峰时段……如果你凌晨 4 点在高速公路上开车，你会坐在那里说：“为什么我们要建这么多高速公路通行能力？这太不可思议了。”但接着你在高峰时段走上同一条高速公路，你就会说：“噢，我们的公路通行能力不够用，车道不够多。”
英文原文
>> We need AI and we need to figure this out. And so there's different ways to skin a cat here, right? My personal view is during peak hours, right? If you go drive down a highway at 4 in the morning, you know, you would sit there and say, "Why do we have all this highway capacity? This is crazy." But then you go on that same highway at rush hour, you're like, "Oh, we don't have enough highway capacity. There's not enough lanes."电力也是一回事。一天之中只有几个小时电网系统会承受真正的负荷压力。因此，我认为绕过这一监管问题的可行方案是：你与数据中心签订 PPA，强制数据中心在背后配置大量电池和一些调峰机组，纯粹为了熬过那个极其紧张的时段。而在我们建成更多电力设施之前，这是一个不错的权宜之计。所以是有办法做到的。人类的聪明才智将在这场博弈中胜出。我们将拥有我们所需的数据中心，而消费者的电费账单我认为也会相对受控。电费会上涨，但会处于可控范围内。
英文原文
Power is the same thing. There's only a few hours a day where you really stress the system. And so I think the working solution to get around this regulatory issue is you do the PPAs with the data centers. You force the data centers to throw a ton of battery behind it and some peakers just to get through that really intense period. And then uh that's a good band-aid solution until we build more power. So there's ways to do this. Human ingenuity is going to win here. We're going to get our data centers and consumer power bills are going to be, I think, relatively under control. They're going to go up, but they're going to be under control.好的，丹，我这里有三个来自观众的问题，都非常棒。第一个问题：你的投资逻辑究竟是否需要表后并网（behind-the-meter）方案获批，还是说这仅仅是押注于清洁、稳定的基荷电力足够稀缺，以至于电力是在表前还是表后流动都无所谓？
英文原文
Okay, Dan, I have three questions from the audience. Really good ones. Number one, does your thesis actually need behind the meter collocation to clear or is it just a bet that clean firm base load is scarce enough that it doesn't matter whether power flows in front of or behind the meter?是后者。这就是为什么我给出了三种情景，对吧？每股收益 50 美元的情况——再次说明，这是一只 300 多美元高位的股票，对吧？每股收益 50 美元。什么都不需要发生，你只需干坐着，对吧，就能让资金翻倍。现在，如果你获得了更多表后并网或者哪怕是表前并网的交易，每股收益就能从 50 美元增加到 70 美元。然后，如果达到了 70 美元并开始建设新增产能，就能达到 100 多美元。
英文原文
It's the latter. And that's why I gave three scenarios, right? The $50 a share of earnings per share. Again, a high $300 stock, right? $50 a share of earnings. Nothing has to happen. You just sit, right? And you double your money. Now, if you get more behind the meter or even front of the meter, that's how you get up to that $70 a share of earnings from 50. And then if you get up to the 70, but start building new capacity, then you get to the $100 plus.好的。第二个问题来自布拉德（Brad）。你如何看待来自燃料电池、燃气轮机、航空衍生动力涡轮机、轨道计算以及其他独立发电商（IPP）的电力竞争？
英文原文
>> Okay. Question two from Brad. How do you think about competition for power from things like fuel cells, gas turbines, aerodyit turbines, orbital compute, and other sort of IPs, independent power producers.我们全部都需要。我们全都需要。燃料电池以及卡特彼勒（Caterpillar）太阳能涡轮机，这些都是极佳的过渡方案，但运行这些设备的成本，平准化度电成本（LCOE）简直高得离谱。但你看，建设一个 500 亿美元的数据中心，你绝不希望它闲置 3 年等待基荷联合循环燃气轮机（CCGT），所以你会不惜一切代价，你根本不在乎为那个过渡方案支付多少费用。因此，我们正在通过燃料电池、通过卡特彼勒太阳能涡轮机、希望还能通过轨道数据中心来找到缓解途径，因为我希望 AI 能够实现在
英文原文
>> We need all of it. We need all of it. We we you know fuel cells and you know the Caterpillar solar turbines these are fantastic bridge solutions but the cost to run these things the LCOE is like through the roof but you you know look to build a $50 billion data center you don't want it to sit idle for 3 years waiting for your base load CCGT so you do whatever it takes you don't give a crap what you pay for that bridge solution and so we're finding ways through fuel cells through uh you know Caterpillar solar turbines hopefully through orbital data centers where we can alleviate this because I want AI to happen in以一种非常重大的方式，而我们需要上述所有的方案。
英文原文
a really big way and we're going to need all the above.好，第三个问题。顺便说一句，大家提的问题非常棒，感谢大家提这些问题。如果业务构成从商业独立发电转向有合同约束的基础设施，那么 Talon 恰当的终值倍数应该是多少？
英文原文
>> Okay, question three. By the way, great questions guys. Thank you for these. What is the right terminal multiple for Talon if the business mix shifts from merchant IP to contracted infrastructure?绝佳的问题
英文原文
>> Fabulous question而且……这里的补充问题是：在市场对其重新估值之前，需要有多少比例的 EBIDA 处于合同约束下？这是个极好的问题，并且……我只有六分钟时间来做这个，我想我已经超时了，所以我没法深入讨论这种细节，但这确实是我非常想深入探讨的内容。所以，无论提问的是哪位，谢谢你。呃，我只是使用了 15 倍的估值倍数，因为它算是合同部分和非合同部分的一种混合倍数。合同部分会获得很高的溢价倍数，因为，你知道，那是类似债券的现金流，而类似债券的现金流在交易时相对国债只有很小的利差；因此，如果国债收益率在 5%，它们交易在 20 倍加上一些增长之类，正负波动。非合同部分，即面临现货市场风险敞口的商业部分，波动性更大，可见度较低，应该以较低的倍数进行交易。我们可以深入细节，但简而言之，合同越多，倍数越高；合同越少，倍数越低。使用 15 倍作为一个很好的经验法则，你大概就能得出正确答案，这就是我使用的倍数。
英文原文
>> and and and the addendum here and what percentage of EBIDA needs to be contracted before the market should rerate it? So, that's a great question and and I only had six minutes to do this and I think I blew through my time so I couldn't get into this kind of detail, but it's something I would have really wanted to get into. So, whoever asked that, thank you. Uh, I just use the 15 multiple because it's sort of a blended multiple between the contracted stuff, which will get a big premium multiple because, you know, it's a bond like cash flow stream and bond like cash flow streams trade at a small spread to treasuries and so treasuries if they're at 5% should trade at 20 times plus some growth or whatever, plus or minus. the uncontracted stuff, the merchant stuff that has spot market exposure is more volatile, less visible, that should trade at a lower multiple. We can get into the minutia, but just suffice to say, the more contracts, the higher the multiple, the less the lower the multiple. Use 15 times as a good rule of thumb, and you'll probably get to the right answer, which is what I used.最后一个问题来自 Daniel Sherer。谢谢你的提问，
英文原文
>> That last question from Daniel Sherer. Thank you for that,Dan。谢谢你，讲得太棒了。
英文原文
>> Dan. Thank you. That was great.EcoR1 Capital 与生物医药投资
太好了。谢谢。我叫 Oleg Nelman。我是 Eco1 Capital 的创始人兼董事总经理，这是一家位于旧金山、注重价值投资的生物技术基金，呃，是我大约在 13 年前创立的。非常感谢 besties 邀请我来到这里。我是该播客的超级粉丝，我相信我们大家都是，我也知道“科学角”（Science Corner）有时候会多么难以理解。所以，我写这份材料的方式，即使是 David Sacks 在场，也会赞赏并认真倾听。
英文原文
>> Great. Thanks. My name is Oleg Nelman. I'm the founder and managing director of Eco1 Capital, a San Francisco based valueoriented biotech fund uh that I started about 13 years ago. Thanks a lot to the besties for having me here. I'm a huge fan of the pod like I'm sure all of us are and I know how challenged Science Corner can get. So, I wrote this in a way that even David Saxs would appreciate and pay attention to if if he were here.嗯，矛盾的是，他正在打盹，这正是他通常在科学角环节会做的事。
英文原文
>> Well, paradoxically, he's taking a nap, which is what he normally does during science corners.确实如此。
英文原文
>> Exactly.一般而言，投资生物技术公司是个糟糕透顶的主意，其糟糕程度介于电影、酒庄和 SPAC 之间。事实上，我们这个行业常常让人感觉更像是一家赌场，而不是真正的金融市场。大多数前来投资的观光客都在玩老虎机。
英文原文
>> Generally speaking, investing in biotech companies is a horrible idea sandwiched somewhere between movies, wineries, and spaxs. In fact, our sector often feels a lot more like a casino than an actual financial market. And most of the tourists who are investing are playing the slots.当然，在 Eco1，我们认为自己是德州扑克玩家，身处一个几乎所有人都是押注于科学的动量投资者的行业。我们专注于安全边际。我们是少数几家非博士（PhD）或医学博士（MD）管理的基金之一，这是刻意为之的，因为我们不想爱上科学。我们爱上的是风险回报。就像幻灯片上说的，我们希望把其他孩子的科学项目变现。
英文原文
Of course, at Eco1, we consider ourselves poker players in a sector where virtually everyone else is a momentum investor betting on science. We focus on margin of safety. We're one of the few funds not managed by PhDs or MDs, and that's by design because we don't want to fall in love with the science. We fall in love with the riskreward. And like the slide says, we want to monetize other kids science projects.这是我投资生物技术的第 25 个年头。我的职业生涯始于在另一家基金工作 11 年，并于 2013 年创立了 Eco R1，起步规模较小，仅有 1300 万。自成立以来，我们为投资者带来了 10 倍的回报，年化收益率为 20%。如今，我们的管理规模约为 25 亿。
英文原文
This is my 25th year investing in biotech. I started my career with an 11-year stint at another fund and launched Eco R1 in 2013, humble beginnings with 13 million. Since inception, we've 10xed to our investors and annualized at 20%. And today we have about two and a half billion under management.我们很幸运拥有长期合作伙伴，其中许多人本身就是生物技术企业家，并且从第一天起就与我们在一起。最近，我们四年来首次重新开放申购。
英文原文
We're lucky to have long-term partners, many of whom are biotech entrepreneurs themselves, and have been with us since day one. And we recently reopened for the first time in four years.癌症疗法演进与放射性药物
今天我要向大家介绍一家处于抗癌战争最前沿的公司。自从 70 年代初尼克松总统签署《国家癌症法案》以来，军事术语就一直被用来描述针对该疾病的治疗。
英文原文
Today I'm going to tell you about a company that's on the front lines of the war on cancer. Military terminology has been used when descri describing treatments for the disease since the early 70s when President Nixon signed the National Cancer Act.战争的比喻其实非常贴切。战争的比喻对癌症来说其实非常完美，因为这两个领域都在试图达成完全相同的事情：找到敌人，确定消灭他们的最佳武器，并在此过程中将意外伤亡降至最低。
英文原文
The warfare analogy is actually perfect. The warfare actually is actually perfect for cancer because both domains are trying to accomplish the exact same thing. find the enemy, figure out the best weapon to kill them, and have minimal unwanted casualties along the way.首先，简要回顾一下这场战争是如何演进的。
英文原文
First, a quick history of how this war has evolved.早期的癌症手术治疗和放疗类似于中世纪的围城战。夷平整座城堡，烧毁周围的村庄，并寄希望于敌人被留在了废墟的某个地方。
英文原文
Early surgical cancer treatment and radiation was akin to a medieval siege. Level the entire castle, burn the surrounding village, and hope the enemy was left somewhere in the rubble.化疗实际上源于第一次世界大战期间的一个偶然观察：芥子气杀死了快速分裂的组织。肿瘤细胞分裂很快，因此医生会向患者体内注入大量化疗药物，希望它消灭敌人的速度快于消灭盟军的速度。不幸的是，毛发、皮肤、肠道和骨髓细胞也分裂迅速，而毒药是不分彼此的。
英文原文
Chemo actually evolved from an accidental observation during World War I that mustard gas killed rapidly dividing tissue. Tumor cells divide fast, so doctors would flood a patient's body with chemo and hoped it killed the enemy faster than it killed allies. Unfortunately, hair, skin, gut, and marrow cells also divide quickly, and the poison doesn't discriminate.接下来是第一代靶向疗法，类似于 GPS 制导炸药。不再地毯式轰炸每一个分裂的细胞，而是识别敌人的指挥控制中心并将其摧毁。问题在于，就像任何武器一样，敌人会适应和隐藏。而在癌症中，这些被称为耐药突变。
英文原文
First generation targeted therapies were next, like a GPS guided munition. Instead of carpet bombing every dividing cell, you identify the enemy's command and control center and destroy it. The problem, like with any weapon, is that the enemy adapts and hides. And in cancer, these are called resistant mutations.免疫疗法在十年前首次引入患者治疗。通过免疫肿瘤学（IO），你不会派出自己的军队。你会招募本土盟军（也称为 T 细胞），让他们为你战斗。当它起作用时效果极为显著，但这高度依赖于地形或肿瘤微环境。这引出了我们今天在这里的原因。
英文原文
Imunotherapy was first introduced to patients a decade ago. With IIO, you don't send in your own troops. You recruit local allies, also known as T- cells, and let them do the fighting for you. Spectacular when it works, but highly dependent on the terrain or the tumor micro environment. This brings me to the reason we're here today.现代放射性药物。就像一群微型无人机，其体积小到可以在血液中穿行并通过分子识别找到目标，然后引爆一个大小精确的弹头，杀伤半径为 100 微米，即单个细胞的直径。这是一次具有掩体炸弹威力和极小附带损伤的自主暗杀。
英文原文
Modern-day radio pharmaceuticals. Like a swarm of micro drones small enough to navigate the bloodstream and find their target by molecular recognition, then detonate a precisely sized warhead with a blast radius of 100 microns or the diameter of a single cell. An autonomous assassination with the force of a bunker buster and minimum collateral damage.Actis Oncology
我今天打算向大家介绍的公司是 Actis Oncology。股票代码是 AKTS。该公司市值 10 亿美元，企业价值 5 亿美元，并且拥有大量现金储备，应该能维持 3 年以上。这远远超过了明年即将到来的关键里程碑节点。Actis 成立于五年前，但最近以 3 亿美元的 IPO 上市，获得了 18 倍的超额认购，并由礼来公司（Eli Lilly，就是给你们带来所有减肥药的那些人）以 1 亿美元的订单进行了兜底支持。该公司设计了一个可以携带任何放射性载荷的平台，其复杂程度足以针对各种靶点，同时又足够小，能够排出体外且副作用最小。这种方法的美妙之处在于，医生可以在早期临床试验中通过成像来验证靶点结合情况。这显著降低了临床开发的风险，因为你知道药物正在到达肿瘤部位。
英文原文
The company I'm going to tell you about today is Actis Oncology. The ticker is AKTS. The company has a billion dollar market cap, a $500 million enterprise value, and a stockpile of cash, which should last them over 3 years. Long past critical milestones that are coming next year. Actis was started five years ago, but recently went public with a $300 million IPO that was 18 times oversubscribed and backstopped with a hund00 million order by Eli Liy, the folks who bring you all the weight loss drugs. The company has designed a platform that can carry any radioactive payload, is complex enough to go after a variety of targets, and small enough to clear your body with minimal side effects. The beautiful thing about this approach is that physicians can verify target engagement in early clinical trials with imaging. This significantly derisks clinical development because you know the drug is getting to the tumor.针对他们最初的几个项目，Actis 的另一项去风险策略是选择了已知的有效靶点，比如 nectin 4 和 B7H3。Nectin 4 在膀胱癌中至关重要，而该公司的第二个针对 B7H3 的项目则更为宏大，它在每种主要实体瘤上都有表达，包括前列腺癌、结直肠癌和肺癌这三大癌症。Actis 去年启动了临床试验，并已公开发布指引，这两个先导项目都将在 2027 年公布初始临床数据，其中 Nectin 4 最早在第一季度公布。所以大家不用等太久。如果任一项目显现出有效信号，该公司很可能不仅因这些项目获得估值，而且整个微型蛋白质平台都会获得估值。这就是生物技术领域的圣杯：仅仅凭借对未来可能实现的预期就获得估值。
英文原文
Another de-risking strategy for their first few programs Actis chose known valid targets like nectin 4 and B7H3. Nectin 4 is critical in bladder cancer and the company's second program targeting B7H3 is even more ambitious expressed on every major solid tumor including the big three prostate, colurectyl and lung. Actis started clinical trials last year and is publicly guided to initial clinical data in both of these lead programs in 2027 with Nectton 4 coming as early as Q1. So you won't have to wait long. If either program shows a signal, the company is likely to get value not only for those programs but the entire mini protein platform. This is the holy grail in biotech, getting value simply for the promise of what might come.更引人注目的是，制药行业对放射疗法有着惊人的浓厚兴趣。包括百时美施贵宝（Bristol）、诺华（Novartis）、拜耳（Bayer）以及为 Actis IPO 提供兜底支持的礼来在内的大型药企，一直在建立放射疗法能力，并且渴望获得资产以补充其研发管线。过去几年放射疗法领域的并购和交易金额已达到 150 亿美元，而我们现在仍处于初期阶段。关于这种疗法模式最妙的一点在于它非常难以复制。仿制药通常不涉足放射性药物，而且由于该类别涉及放射性同位素，中国无法获取。因此，与大多数生物技术不同，这里存在着真正的护城河。
英文原文
What's even more compelling is there's an amazing amount of interest in radiotherapies from pharma. The big ones including Bristol, Novartis, Bayer, and Lily who backs stop the Actis IPO have been building radiotherapy capabilities and they're hungry for assets to add to their pipelines. There's been 15 billion in M&A and dealmaking in radiotherapy in the last few years and we're very much in the early innings. The neatest thing about this modality is that it's very hard to replicate. Generics generally don't traffic in radioarma and because the class involves radioisotopes it's off limits to China. So unlike most of biotech there's a real moat现在进入常规的安全警告。Actis 并不适合所有人。在购买 Actis 之前，您应该咨询您的生物技术分析师。建仓可能会导致焦虑增加、整夜睡眠减少。在生物技术领域，股价严重下跌时有发生。投资后可能会因为竞争对手而立即经历突发波动。如果遭遇股价无故下跌，请立即致电您的经纪人加仓。请记住，其他公司的本土开发项目曾出现严重的安全性顾虑。虽然迄今为止 Actis 的任何项目中均未出现安全性顾虑，但未来可能会有。用于销售的微型蛋白质的递送尚未得到证实。Actis 没有上市产品，因而也没有经常性收入解决方案。
英文原文
and now the obligatory safety warning. Axis is not for everyone. You should consult your biotech analyst before purchasing access. Initiating a position may cause increased anxiety reduced sleep through the night. Serious sometimes drops in stock rates occur in biotech. Immediately after investing may experience sudden volatility due to lang competitors. If stock declines are experienced no fun reason. Call your broker immediately to increase your position. Remember serious safety concerns have risen in other companies local development programs. While no safety concerns occur with any access program date, they may in the future. The use of many proteins delivered for sales has not been proven. Access is no market products and thus no referring revenue solution可能进行增发。若进行二次发行，请立即安排与接入管理团队通话以商讨下单事宜。
评估生物技术公司的价值向来极具挑战，因为当你进行风险调整并折现回来时，估值很快就会归零。对于这类早期投资机会，我们倾向于采用多角度交叉验证。我们认为，如果 Actis 的研发管线中哪怕只有一个项目成功上市，其价值就可能达到 100 亿美元或每股 200 美元。在这种情况下，你拥有很多胜算。
英文原文
for equity offerings may occur. In the event of a secondary offering, immediately schedule a call with access management team to discuss placing an order.It's notoriously challenging to value biotech companies because when you risk adjust and discount back, you pretty quickly get to zero. For earlier stage opportunities like this, we like to triangulate. We think Actis could be worth 10 billion or $200 per share if even one of their programs makes it to market. And in this case, you have a lot of outs.
我不太了解为什么放射性同位素对中国是禁运/无法获得的。
在这种特定情况下，Actis 的放射性同位素有效载荷是锕，而锕是由镭-233制成的，镭-233曾用于我们在50年代和60年代的美国本土核项目。所以它是核项目的废料产物。因此，像中国这样的其他国家根本无法获得锕，因为他们完全拥有不同的——他们自己的项目完全不同，采用的是浓缩铀和钚。但是，很多生物技术公司面临的中国仿制风险，源于安进与赛诺菲的那起最高法院诉讼案，不是吗？在那起案件中，他们可以——你可以做一个微小的改动，因为判决基本上表明所有专利都是物质组成专利。所以你可以改变一个氨基酸来规避专利，而中国基本上对美国和欧洲取得专利的许多生物制剂都这么做过。他们就是直接抄袭，然后你把发射辐射的——
英文原文
>> I'm not familiar with why radioisotopes are off limits to China. So in this particular case um Actis' radioisotope payload is actinium and actinium is manufactured from radium 233 which was used in our own nuclear programs in the US in the in the 50s and 60s. So it's a waste product from there. So actinum is not even available in other countries like China because they had a completely different uh their own program was completely different with enriched uranium and plutonium. But the but the the risk for a lot of biotech and China replication came about that Amgen Sophi Supreme Court case, didn't it? Where they could you could make a small because it basically said all patents are composition of matter patents. So you could change one amino acid get around the patent and China's basically done that with a lot of biologics that are patented in the US and Europe. They just rip them off and then you attach the radio emmitting放射性同位素连接到分子上，然后你就可以进行追踪。这在某种程度上就是很多生物技术公司估值承压的原因。难道不是这样吗？
英文原文
>> uh radioisotope to the molecule and you can kind kind of chase it. That's kind of why a lot of biotech's been depressed. Is that not true?是的。对于放射性同位素而言，由于你必须拥有在美国本土采购的生产供应。我们在中国完全没有看到任何竞争迹象。
英文原文
>> Yeah. So with with with radioisotopes again because you have to you have to have a a manufacturing supply that you have to source locally in the US. Um we haven't seen any competition coming from China at all.但如果他们公布了成功的读数，难道不会出现中国有人说“嘿，我们去搞一些必需的放射性同位素”这种情况吗？而且——
英文原文
>> And if if they have a successful readout though, would it not be like the case that someone in China would say, "Hey, let's go get some of the necessary radioisotopes." And他们——我确信他们能为中国市场做到这一点，但就随后将其转移到这边而言，我们还没看到这种情况，或者说完全没有任何这方面的风声。
英文原文
>> they're they're I'm sure they can do it for the Chinese market, but in terms of then transfer transferring that over here, we we haven't we haven't seen it or kind of any wind of it at all.那我的最后一个问题，抱歉占用了太多时间。你认为为什么自 IPO 以来市场对其价值折让了这么多？
英文原文
>> And so then my last question, I'm sorry for monopolizing. Why do you think the markets discounted the value so much since the IPO?哎呀。考虑到生物技术领域的估值回报——
英文原文
>> Oh gosh. Given the return in biotech估值方面，这是非常典型的生物技术行情。自 IPO 以来它一直横盘整理。生物技术投资者极其注重短期利益，因此即使我们现在距离数据公布还有八到九个月，这段时间依然显得太漫长了。所以我们的预期是，大家会在下半年开始建仓，以期待第一季度公布的数据。
英文原文
>> valuation, it's pretty classic biotech. So it's traded flat since the IPO. uh biotech investors are so insanely short-term oriented that even though we're now call it eight or nine months from data that's still way too long and so our expectation is the folks will start accumulating this in the second half in anticipation of the data coming in the first quarterGavin，你有一个问题。
英文原文
>> Gavin you had a question好的，当然。在很久以前，我管理过一只生物制药基金。你知道这是一份非常艰难的工作，祝贺你取得的那些数据。但我是紧随人类基因组测序完成之后管理那只基金的，当时人们预期基因组测序将引发疗法、个性化医疗等领域的爆炸式增长。我认为总体而言，过去25年我们取得的进展可能没有大家在2000年代初所认为的那么多。我的假说是，基因组对于人类大脑或人类编写的软件来说是一个过于庞大的问题空间，而人工智能将解锁许多革命性疗法。所以我的问题是——我承认这是一个出于私心的问题，它与你精彩的荐股无关——你认为在座各位的有生之年，发达国家人类的平均寿命大幅延长到远超100岁，达到125岁、150岁的几率有多大？
英文原文
>> yeah sure so I in in in the distant past I ran a biioharmaceutical fund uh and you know it's a very hard job congratulations on those numbers but I ran that fund right after the human g genome had been sequenced and there was an expectation that the sequencing of the genome was going to lead to this explosion in therapies personalized medicines etc etc and I don't think broadly speaking we've made as much progress over the last 25 years as maybe people thought in the early 2000s and my hypothesis is that the genome is too big of a problem space for the human mind or software written by humans and AI is going to unlock a lot of kind of revolution utionary therapies. So my question to you, I will just admit it's a selfish question. It is not about your stock pitch, which is great. It's what do you think the odds are that in the lifetimes of everyone in this room, the average human lifespan in a developed country extends well past 100 to 125, 150.我非常看好这一点，在很大程度上是因为我们已经拥有了市面上最好的长寿药物之一，而大家甚至还没有意识到这一点，那就是 GLP-1 类药物和减肥药。在实际数据中唯一被证实能延长寿命的方式之一就是热量限制，而这正是所有减肥药所实现的效果。所以我相信在座有一半的人都在使用其中一种。而这仅仅是个开始，因为这让人们认识到可以通过自我注射某种药物，依靠药物治疗来实现健康生活。因此，我认为这种趋势只会继续下去。
英文原文
I would take the over on that uh in no small part because we already have one of the best longevity drugs out there and folks don't even realize it in the glip ones and the obesity drugs. So one of the only things that's ever been shown in act with actual data to extend life is caloric restriction and that's literally what all the obesity drugs do. So I'm sure half the people in this room are on one of them. Uh and that's just the beginning because it's trained people that you can inject yourself with something and have healthy living through pharmaceuticals. So I I think that's only going to continue.我收到了现场观众的两个问题。第一个问题是，随着每公斤发射成本持续下降，鉴于癌细胞在低重力环境下似乎表现不同，是否存在一条切实可行的途径将太空和微重力作为一种治疗变量？
英文原文
>> Oh, I got two questions from the audience. First one, as the launch costs per kilogram continue to fall, is there a credible pathway to use space and microgravity as a therapeutic variable given that cancer cells appear to behave differently in lowgravity environments?这是一个极好的问题，但可能不适用于当前这个案例。
英文原文
>> That is a great question that's probably not applicable to this.好的。第二个问题是，随着 AI 在药物研发及癌前筛查中规模化应用，可能会出现什么能够颠覆精准放射治疗的技术突破？
英文原文
>> Okay. And then the second question, what would be a technological breakthrough that could disrupt precision radiotherapy as a result of AI at scale to drug development and precancerous screen?是的，又一个绝妙的问题。Actis 内部有一个小型的绝密 AI 项目。对于所有这些生物技术公司而言，它们都拥有希望借助各种洞察加以利用的自有多样化数据集。因此像这样一家公司，伴随其微型蛋白质以及他们试图实现的各种成果，拥有自己的由博士数据科学家极客组成的小团队，正在研究是否能以相当不错的方式对其加以利用。
在实体瘤中应用 CAR-T 一直非常困难。这类个性化的、基于肽段的免疫疗法是否在某些实体瘤中展现出了一定疗效？这一领域是否会扩展并与此产生交集？
英文原文
>> Yeah, another awesome question. There's a a small skunks work project within Actis AI project. So with all these biotech companies, they have their little proprietary data sets that they hope to leverage with various insights. So a company like this with their many proteins and everything else they're trying to accomplish, they have their own little tiny group of PhD data scientist nerds who are seeing if they can leverage that in a pretty decent way. Is it so it's been really hard to get CARTT in solid tumors? Um is it the case that these kind of personalized uh uh peptide based imunotherap uh therapies are showing some efficacy in some solid tumors and is that uh a space that's going to expand and kind of intersect here?我认为许多人可能听说过的最有前景的，是一家名为 RevMed 的公司开发的一种用于胰腺癌的新药，这只是另一种靶向疗法。所以目前来看，肽类药物方面还没有取得巨大的进展。
那你之前关注过 D-旋多肽（Droins）吗？这种似乎能够穿透实体瘤的右旋蛋白质。
英文原文
>> What's most promising that I think a lot of folks have probably heard of is uh uh a new drug for pancreatic cancer from a company called Revmed was just another targeted therapy. So for now there's not a huge amount of progress from from peptides. And have you looked at Droins before? These kind of right-handed proteins that seem to be able to penetrate solid tumors.这个嘛，这些微型蛋白质的精妙之处之一在于，它们的大小有望刚好能够将其有效载荷递送到肿瘤内部。
英文原文
>> Well, so one of the one of the neat things about these mini proteins is they're hopefully of the right size to be able to deliver their payload inside of the tumors.令人难以置信。Oleg，谢谢你。
英文原文
>> Incredible. Oleg, thank you.谢谢。
英文原文
>> Thank you.顺便说一句，顺便说一句，Oleg 在台上的时候有人全仓买入（YOLO）了这只股票。它上涨了 6%。就跟搞定了一样。别在我们大家都想买的时候这么做。求求了，别这样。
英文原文
>> By the way, by the way, somebody just yoloed into the stocks while Oleg was on stage. It's up 6%. like the L. Don't do that while we're all trying to buy as well. Please come on.Kyle Samani：去中心化物理基础设施网络与 Geonet
大家早上好。我叫 Kyle Samani。感谢大家今天来到全流动性大会。感谢 Besties 的组织。今天我们将讨论一个鲜为人知的资产，一种名为 Geonet 的小型加密资产，它正在为人工智能构建基础设施轨道。让我们开始吧。
先简要介绍一下我。大约八年半前，我创立了一家名为 Multicoin Capital 的公司。几个月前我卸任了。在我在职期间，我可能最出名的是在 Solana 网络于 2020 年上线之前，主导了对其全部三轮投资。我深耕加密领域很长时间了。我认为这是一个非常自然的场合来讨论加密与人工智能交叉领域的一个非常有趣的投资。此外，非常感谢 David Sacks。遗憾的是他今天不在场，但当年确实是 David 为 Multicoin 提供了种子轮投资。所以，感谢 David 在非常早期就对我的信任。
好了，让我们深入了解 Geonet。理解 Geonet 的首要方式是先看 GPS。在座的大多数人可能都遇到过左边这种情况：你在使用手机，手机定位却在错误的位置，朝向错误的方向。看这里，根据手机显示，这家伙看起来像是在面对一堵墙。
从根本上说，Geonet 使用了一种名为 RTK（即实时动态测量）的新技术，可以将定位精确到约 2 厘米。作为参考，GPS 大致的精度约为 2 米。因此，对于非常精确的地理定位，你可以获得大约 100 倍的精度。你可以想象，任何形式的机器人都可以利用 RTK，无人机就是一个非常显而易见的例子。稍后几分钟内我还会再提到几个例子。
目前，Geonet 是全球最大的 RTK 网络，也是增长最快的。左边看到的这三家公司——Trimble、Hexagon 和 Topcon——一直都在构建 RTK
英文原文
>> Morning everyone. My name is Kyle Samani. Uh thank you for being with us at the all liquidity today. Thanks to the besties for organizing. Today we're going to be talking about a little known asset, a little crypto asset called Geonet. Uh which is building the rails for AI. So let's jump in. Quick bit about me. Uh I founded a firm called Multicoin Capital about eight and a half years ago. I stepped down a few months ago. Um, and in my time there, I was probably most well known for, uh, leading all three rounds of investment in Salana prior to Salana's network launch, uh, in 2020. Um, I've been deep in the crypto space for a very long time. Uh, and I thought this would be a very natural forum to talk about a very interesting investment at the intersection of crypto and AI. Uh, also big shout out to David Sax. Unfortunately, he's not here, but, uh, David did seed multicoin uh, back in the day. So, thank you, David, for believing in me very early. All right, let's get into geoet. So the way to understand Geonet first is to look at GPS um probably everyone in this room has been in the situation on the left where you're using your phone and your phone is in the wrong spot facing the wrong way. Right here you can see this guy looks like he's facing a wall according to his phone. Um, Geonet it fundamentally is a new is it uses a technology called RTK or real-time kinematics where you can localize your location down to about 2 centimeters for context. GPS roughly the the precision is about 2 m. So you're getting about 100x accuracy for very precise geoloccation. Uh, as you can imagine any form of kind of robotics can make use of RTK drones being the very obvious example. I'll touch on a few more just in a couple minutes here.Um, today Geonet is the world's largest RTK network in the world and it's also the fastest growing. Um, the three companies you see on the left here, Trimble, Hexagon, and Topcon, have all been building RTK
以某种形式存在了差不多20到30年的网络。全部加起来，它们在全球部署的基站大约有12,000个。GeoNet成立于2021年，于2022年开始构建该网络。如今，他们的规模大约是排在后面的三家总和的两倍。如今的GeoNet已在全球150个国家上线，覆盖超过11,000个城市，覆盖了大约80%的全球人口（排除部分受制裁国家）。所以这东西增长确实非常迅速。
英文原文
networks in some form or fashion for call it 20 to 30 years. Um, all of them combined have roughly 12,000 base stations deployed around the world. GeoNet was founded in 2021. Uh, began building out the network in 2022. Uh, and today they are roughly twice the size of the next three guys combined. Uh today's geoet is live in 150 countries around the world, more than 11,000 cities and covers roughly 80% of the global population excluding some sanctioned countries. Um so this thing is really growing quickly.你可能会问，这些人是怎么把网络建得这么快的？关键实际上就是这种去中心化的加密模型。这里我们看到的真真切切就是一张位于某人家屋顶上的GeoNet基站照片。整个全球GeoNet网络，那22,000个节点，并不是由像AT&T或Verizon这样的人来建造和部署的。那些基站是由任何想赚点外快的普通人、业余爱好者、专业人士或小企业主部署的。你今天就可以去Geonodes网站，买一个这样的基站。它们只要几百美元。你把它装在你家或小企业的屋顶上。它发射无线电波。你就赚钱。实际上你是以GEOD代币的形式获得报酬，这就是该激励体系中非常酷的部分，通过激励来冷启动这套网络，让它起步运转。
英文原文
Uh you might say, how did these guys build this network so fast? Uh and the key is really this decentralized crypto model. Um so here we're looking at literally a photo of a geoet base station on the roof of someone's house. The the global geoet network, those 22,000 nodes are not being built and deployed by some one that looks like AT&T or Verizon. Those base stations are being deployed by any random guy or hobbyist or professional or small business owner who wants to make some extra money. You can go on the Geonodes website today. You can buy one of these base stations. They're a few hundred bucks. You put it on your roof of your house or your small business. It broadcasts radio waves. You make money. Uh you actually get paid in geode tokens, which is the really cool part about this incentive system to bootstrap this thing to get it off the ground.所以GeoNet网络大约在4年前开始这么做。如今按相当大的优势来看，它已经是世界上规模最大、增长最快的网络了。如果你想感受一下其规模，这里我们看到的是他们在美国的覆盖情况。显然，每一个主要大都会区都覆盖到了，但即便你看看全国的大部分农村地区，实际上连绝大部分农村地区也覆盖到了。
英文原文
So the Geonet network started about 4 years ago doing this. Today it's now the largest fastest growing in the world by a pretty wide margin. If you want a sense of scale, uh here we're looking at their coverage in United States. Obviously, every single major metro is covered, but even if you look at most of the rural parts of the country, you're covering actually the vast majority of even the rural areas.客户与应用场景
我们来聊聊它的一些客户和用例。我们先从农业开始。美国农业部（USDA）几年前其实启动了一项计划，鼓励农场主和牧场主使用精准农业技术，包括RTK网络。如今USDA实际上正在补贴全国各地的许多农场主和牧场主采用高精度农业，其中大部分是由GeoNet驱动的。
英文原文
Um let's talk about some of the customers and use cases for this. We'll start with agriculture first. Um the USDA actually launched a couple years ago a program to encourage farmers and ranchers to use uh precise a technologies including RTK networks. Um today actually geo the USDA is now actually subsidizing uh many farmers and ranchers all over the country uh to adopt high precision a most of which is powered by geodet.深入到其中一些具体例子，这里我们看到的是所谓的机器骡（robotic mule）。这是由一家名为Burrow的公司制造的。显然它正在运送一些葡萄。你可以在上面放任何东西。这对你能想象到的几乎任何农场或牧场都有非常显而易见的应用。随着计算机视觉、CPU、电池以及所有其他AI技术的出现，这些东西正像热销松饼一样飞速增长，它们全部都将由GeoNet或类似的网络驱动。
英文原文
Um getting into some specific examples of that here we're looking at what's called a robotic mule. Um this is made by a company called Burrow. Uh obviously this is transporting some grapes. You could put anything on this. Has pretty obvious application for bas almost any farm or ranch you can imagine. With the advent in computer vision, CPUs, batteries, all the other AI stuff, these things are growing like hotcakes, all of them are going to be powered by Geonet or something like it.这里我们看到的是约翰迪尔（John Deere）。他们最近推出了一项名为全球无人喷洒系统（Global Unmanned Spraying Systems）或GUSS的新服务。这些设备四处行驶，真真切切地给植物喷洒杀虫剂以及类似的其他东西。我今天早上确实确认了，在纳帕（Napa）这里就有酒庄实际在使用约翰迪尔的GUSS车辆。那真的很酷。所以如果你今晚喝点葡萄酒，也许它就是由GUSS培育的，而GUSS又是由GeoNet赋能的。
英文原文
Um, here we're looking at John Deere. They have a new service uh that they rolled out recently called Global Unmanned Spraying Systems or Gus. Um, these things drive around. They literally spray plants with pesticides and other things of that like that. I did actually confirm this morning there are wineries here in Napa that are actually using John Deere Gus uh uh vehicles. That was pretty cool. So if you have some wine tonight, maybe it was powered by by Gus, which powered by Geonet.显然，自动驾驶汽车对此有着相当明显的应用。TomTom是GeoNet的客户之一。TomTom基本上是全球除少数几家之外几乎所有自动驾驶（AV）项目的供应商。如今，TomTom正在利用GeoNet的数据来更新他们的地图，以便在全球基本上覆盖到每一平方英寸时，让地图变得更加精确和精准。
英文原文
Um, obviously autonomous vehicles has a pretty obvious application for this. Um, TomTom is one of Geonet's customers. TomTom is a supplier to basically every every AV program in the world, uh, excluding maybe a couple. And today, TomTom is using Geonet's data to update their maps to get them more accurate and precise as they need to cover every square inch basically around the planet.我最喜欢的用例之一，是下一波消费级机器人，它们如今受到了很多关注。我认为最明显的就是割草机器人。我觉得没有人喜欢自己去修剪草坪。割草机器人如今实际上正在以相当不错的规模铺开。据估计，由Yarbo、Sunseeker等公司制造的割草机器人今年将售出100万台。所有这些设备全部都是由GeoNet驱动的。
英文原文
Um, one of my favorite use cases are kind of the next wave of consumer robotics, which are getting a lot of hype these days. I think the most obvious one are robotic lawnmowers. I don't think anyone loves to mow their lawn. Um, robotic lawnmowers are now actually rolling out at pretty good scale. They're estimated they're going to sell 1 million robotic lawnmowers this year, made by companies like Yarbo, Sunseeker, and others. Um, all of those these guys are all powered by Geonet.接下来，我们来看看无人机。全球最大的无人机制造商大疆（DJI）是GeoNet的客户。它并不是用在他们的所有机型中，但确实用在了他们的大量机型中。显然大疆现在正通过GeoNet传输大量流量。在接下来的数月和数年里，随着大疆在美国逐步缩减业务，并且涌现出新一波美国无人机制造商，我敢打赌他们中的大多数（即便不是全部）最终也都会进入GeoNet网络。GeoNet团队位于美国，在这里有着深厚的根基。
英文原文
Um, next up, let's get to drones. Um the world's largest drone manufacturer DJI is a Geonet customer. Uh it's not in all of their models, but it is in a lot of their models. Uh and so obviously DJI is sending a ton of traffic now over Geonet. Uh in the coming uh you know months and years as DJI wounds down in the US and you have new a wave of American drone manufacturers pop up. I'm going to venture to guess that most if not all of them are going to end up on the GeoNet network as well. Uh the Geonet team is based in the US has deep roots here.我喜欢GeoNet的一点在于，它是一项非常明显的网络效应业务。这东西看起来就像天然的电信网络，对吧？你的基站遍布全球，必须覆盖整个星球。历史上电信网络很自然地会形成垄断，我认为在这里很可能也是如此。如今，GeoNet是世界上规模最大、增长最快的网络，同时由于这种人们直接把这些设备装在房顶上的去中心化性质，它也以非常大的优势拥有着最低的成本结构。
英文原文
What I love about Geonet is it's a very obvious network effect networks effect network effects business. Um this thing looks like a natural telecom, right? You have base stations kind of all over the world. You got to cover the whole planet. Um telecoms naturally form monopolies historically. I think the same is likely to be true here. Today, Geonet is the world's largest and fastest growing network with also the lowest cost structure by a very wide margin because of this decentralized nature where people just put these things on top of their house.业务与财务表现
就业务现状而言，该业务几天前的年化营收运行率（ARR）刚刚突破了约100万美元（注：随后更正为1100万美元）。而且它同比增长超过3倍。我认为它在接下来的12个月里可能会增长至三倍以上。GeoNet真正酷的地方在于它的资本效率有多高，以及他们实际上是如何向代币持有者返还资本的。所以如今，GeoNet网络正在把那大约1100万美元的营收——抱歉，其中的80%用于在公开市场上回购GEO代币。这在Solana区块链上全都是可见的。他们的所有地址都已公开，等等。因此，一切都是可以实时核验的。这意味着目前每年有880万美元用于在公开市场上购买GeoNet代币。令人惊叹的是，剩下的20%覆盖了他们所有的研发成本，并且目前正在扩展他们的业务拓展团队。
英文原文
In terms of where the business at, the business just crossed about $1 million in annualized run rate a few days ago. Uh, and it's growing more than 3x year-over-year. I think it's going to probably more than triple over the next 12 months. Um, what's really cool about GeoNet is how capital efficient it is and how they're actually returning capital to token holders. So today, uh, the Geonet network is taking of that 11 million in revenue roughly, uh, excuse me, 80% of it is being used to make open market purchases of Geo tokens. Uh, and this is all visible on the Salana blockchain. they have all the addresses are published and stuff. So, it's all verifiable in real time. Uh that means $8.8 million right now per year is going into buying, you know, Geonet tokens on the open market. Uh what's amazing is that last 20% is they're they're covering all their R&D costs and scaling out now their business development team.对于这样一家企业，当然，它的客户圈子相当小。在约翰迪尔工作的人认识在大疆工作的人，后者又认识在TomTom工作的人。所以，这套体系如今正在这群核心客户群体中呈病毒式传播增长。正如你能想象到的，对于签约此类服务的客户，随着时间推移，他们往往会增加对该服务的使用量。因此，一旦有人在第一年开始部署GeoNet，他们通常每年花费大约60,000美元。然而两年后，他们通常每年花费大约170,000美元。因此，GeoNet的平均客户在第二年给GeoNet带来的收入增长大约是3倍。显然，接着我们看他们仅仅在过去两年签约的客户。你可以看到他们去年的客户群翻了5倍。那些都是净增新客户。所以在这里应用一些相当简单的数学计算，你可以看到随着这套业务的铺开，他们今年有非常明确的路径实现3倍以上的增长。
英文原文
With a business like this, of course, like it's a pretty small network of customers. The guys who work at John Deere know the guys who work at DJI, who know the guys who work at TomTom. And so, this thing is now growing virally amongst this kind of core community of of customers. Um, and as you can imagine with customers who sign up for a service like this, they tend to ramp up their usage of that service over time. So once someone starts rolling out GeoNet in the first year, they're usually spending about $60,000 per year. After two years though, they're usually spending about $170,000 per year. So the average Geonet customer is growing their their revenue with GeoNet about 3x in that second year. Um, obviously then we look at their just their customers. They've signed up in the last two years. You can see they 5x their customer base last year. Those are that net new customers. So applying some pretty simple math here, you can see they have a very clear path to more than 3x this year as this thing ramps up.最后总结一下，GeoNet是全球最大、增长最快的RTK网络。它具有非常明显的网络效应，并且很可能成为一个非常自然的垄断者，同比增长达3倍，拥有一批大家都熟知的旗舰客户和品牌。显然，我们现在身后有着巨大的具身智能（physical AI）顺风，机器人技术以及所有正在发生的其他令人惊叹的事情。而且他们正在向代币持有者返还资本。该代币确实在Solana区块链上交易。如果你想买，它是全天候24/7交易的。代码是GEOD，G-E-O-D。所以如果你确实想获取一些GEO代币，我鼓励你去注册一个加密货币钱包、一个Solana钱包，然后你就可以从那里去购买GEOD代币了。说到这里，我想我们可以进入问答环节了。
英文原文
Just to wrap things up summary, um Jonet is the world's largest RTK network, growing the fastest. It has really obvious network effects and is is likely to be a very natural monopoly growing 3x year over year with a bunch of flagship customers and brands that you all know. Obviously, we have this huge physical AI tailwind behind us now, robotics and all the other amazing stuff happening. Uh and they're returning capital to shareholders. Uh the token does trade on the Salana blockchain. Uh if you want to buy, it trades 247. The ticker is geode geo d. Um so if you want to actually get some geo tokens, I encourage you to sign up for a crypto wallet, a salon wallet, and you can go ahead and buy geode tokens from there. And with that, I think we are ready for some Q&A.太棒了。市值是多少？
英文原文
>> Awesome. Um what's the market cap?噢，抱歉。在完全稀释的基础上，它的交易市值大约是1.5亿美元。如果你去查看任何加密货币行情网站，比如CoinGecko或CoinMarketCap，它们显示的数字大约是6,000万或7,000万美元。那是因为并非所有代币都已流通，但完全稀释后的数字大约是1.5亿美元。
英文原文
>> Oh, sorry. It's trading about 150 million on a fully diluted basis. If you were to go look at any of the crypto price websites like coin.go require market cap. They're going to show you something like 60 or 70 million. That's because not all of the tokens are floating yet, but the fully diluted number is about 1 million.它背后有一家公司，还是说它只是
英文原文
>> Is there a corporation behind it or is this just治理结构与通证模型
比如一个设在开曼群岛或巴拿马的项目，董事会成员是谁都没人知道？给我们讲讲治理方面的情况吧。
英文原文
like a project in the Cayman Islands in Panama with a board that nobody knows who's on it? Tell us about governance.呃，Geonet 团队是一家美国的法团。团队有四个人在旧金山。CEO 名叫 Mike Horton。呃，人非常非常不错。他在这种物联网智能，你知道的，设备领域已经创业深耕挺长时间了。公司实体与通证之间是什么关系，我们应该持有哪一个？
英文原文
>> Uh so the Geonet team is uh US-based corporation. There four teams in San Francisco. The CEO's name is Mike Horton. Uh really, really good guy. He's been building in this kind of IoT smart, you know, device space for a while. the relationship between the corporate entity and the token and which one should we own?呃，你应该持有通证，因为就像你能想象的那样，我持有大量的通证。我没有持有任何股权。嗯，它们之间的关系是，Geonet 那个公……你知道的，那家公司直接面向约翰迪尔（John Deere）、大疆（DJI）所有这些公司，并且他们与 Geonet 基金会有合同约束关系，要将其 80% 的收入用于从公开市场上回购通证。那就是……
英文原文
>> Uh you should own the token because I own a lot of the token uh as as you might imagine. I don't own any of the equity. Um the relationship is geoet the c you know the company is facing John Deere DJI all these companies and they have a contractual relationship with the Geonet Foundation to use 80% of their revenues to buy tokens off the open market. And that's那家法团募集过风险投资之类的吗？呃，是的，呃，我之前的公司 Multicoin 实际上早前领投了 Geonet 的一轮融资。
英文原文
>> that corporation raised venture capital or anything? Uh yes uh my prior company Multicoin actually led around in Geonet previously.好的，Kyle，我这里有好多听众提问，所以请耐心听我说。问题一：你对 Helium 的看好程度也是一样吗？它相当于 5G 信号领域的 Geonet。
英文原文
>> Okay Kyle I have I have many questions from the audience so bear with me. Question one do you like Helium as much which is Geonet for 5G signal.呃，是的，我六七年前其实就领投了 Multicoin 对 Helium 的投资，呃，并且我至今依然非常坚定地长期看好它。他们今天早上其实刚公布了一则重磅消息。呃，不过是的，我是 Helium 的超级粉丝。
英文原文
>> Uh yes I actually led multicoins investment in Helium six or seven years ago uh and continue to be a very big long-term believer. They actually had big news go out this morning. Uh but yeah I'm a big Helium fan.问题二。有一长串 DePIN 项目都失败了，因为人们根本就不看重通证奖励。为什么这个项目会有所不同？
英文原文
>> Question two. There's a long list of deepin projects that have failed because people just don't value the token rewards. Why is this any different?我是说，他们正在向股东返还资本。这东西，你知道的，正在向股东返还 880 万美元。它目前的交易估值是 1.5 亿美元，而且今年还会实现 3 倍的增长。这是一项便宜得难以置信的资产。只是因为现在处于加密货币熊市，大家都没去注意它而已。
英文原文
>> I mean, they're returning capital to shareholders. This thing is, you know, returning $8.8 million to shareholders. It's trading at $150 million valuation and it's going to grow 3x this year. It's an unbelievably cheap asset. It's just people aren't paying attention because it's crypto bare market right now.好的。呃，来自 Sam……
英文原文
>> Okay. Uh from Sam,不好意思，这实质上是对客户现金流的证券化权益……
英文原文
>> sorry, let it's a securitized interest in the cash flows from the customers实际上是的。这是一项收入。它是一个……
英文原文
>> effectively. Yes. It is a revenue. It is a这是一个收益分成通证。
英文原文
>> It's a revenue share token.没错。80%。
英文原文
>> Correct. 80%.好的。所以，约翰迪尔向 Geonet 公司支付得越多，你们基本上就销毁越多的通证，这应该会导致通证……
英文原文
>> Okay. So, the more John Deere pays Geodet the company, the more you basically deprecate the tokens, which should cause the token,他们是在公开市场上买入通证。没错。
英文原文
>> they're buying tokens to open the market. Correct.是的。
英文原文
>> Yes.好的。来自 Sam 的提问：是股权还是通证在积累价值？类似的问题是，这种价值积累机制与现行的证券法，或者《清晰法案》（Clarity Act）中所预期的内容，到底相不相符？
英文原文
>> Okay. From Sam, what acres value the equity or the token? Similar to question, how does the value acrruel mechanisms square or not with current securities laws or what's contemplated in the Clarity Act?呃，是的。嗯，针对你提问的一个回答是：积累价值的是通证，因为他们拿出 80% 来买入。剩下的 20% 显然是用作运营资金。他们有工程师、销售人员，等等所有的配置。嗯，所以那些都在运作并获得资金支持。在证券法方面，呃，《清晰法案》的通过对 Geonet 来说肯定是非常利好的。呃，我不是律师，所以我不会跟你说，你知道的，它百分之百符合《清晰法案》设立的标准，但我可以告诉你我持乐观态度，而且我一直深入参与《清晰法案》的相关事务，呃，我对此并不是太担心。
英文原文
>> Uh, yeah. Um, so the one answer to your question is the the tokens are the ones acrewing value because they're taking 80% and buying. The other 20% is obviously funding operations. They have engineers, salespeople, all that stuff. Um, so that's all there and being funded. In terms of securities laws, uh, the Clarity Act, uh, passing is certainly very good for Geonet. Uh, I'm not a lawyer, so I'm not going to tell you that, you know, it it passes the bars set in the Clarity Act, but I can tell you I'm an optimist and I've been very involved in the Clarity Act, uh, and I'm not too worried about it.技术竞争与商业模式
好的。我能不能就商业本身快速问一句？关于约翰迪尔，我对这个领域还算了解。我以前在农业领域管理过一家名为 Precision Planting 的公司，嗯，那里以前有……约翰迪尔自己造他们自己的 RTK 系统。所以当你在运行一台依赖 RTK 的设备时，在建筑行业你购买的是 Topcon、Leica、Trimble 或者约翰迪尔，然后你安装 RTK 基站并运行你的设备。为什么约翰迪尔以及其他厂商会想依赖这个系统来作为一种不同……比如它为什么会比他们已经在使用的系统更好？我不太明白这一点。
英文原文
>> Okay. Can I can I ask about the business just real quick? So John Deere, I know this space somewhat well. I used to manage a company called Precision Planting in Agriculture and um there was John Deere makes their own RTK systems. So when you like run a a piece of equipment that relies on RTK, you're buying in the construction industry, Topcon or Leica or Trimble or John Deere and you install the RTK base stations and you run your equipment. Why would John Deere and others want to rely on this system as a different like why is it better than like the systems that they're already using? It wasn't quite clear to me.我是说，资本开支与运营成本的对比，对吧？就像……现在这些网络遍布全球。它们以极低的成本在运行。Geonet 的价格大概是自己投入资本开支搭建的三分之一到二分之一，抱歉，三分之一到四分之一。而且它在任何地方都能用。因此，这缩短了约翰迪尔的销售周期，他们现在直接说“买下这台拖拉机就行，没问题了”。
英文原文
>> I mean capex versus opex, right? Like right these networks are all over the world now. They're running at very low cost. GeoNet is is probably a third to half sorry a third to a quarter the price um than buying up your own capex and doing it. And it's just available everywhere. So now it just reduces the sales cycle time for John Deere when they just say buy the tractor. It's good.现在微卫星也是一个大热门，试图成为 GPS 的替代方案，其方式是它们实际上能够提供亚厘米级的分辨率，利用 SpaceX 发射的 Mesh 网，或者实际上就是 SpaceX，来有效替代 GPS 和 RTK。我不知道 SpaceX 是否考虑过做这个，但是，嗯，我知道有一家资金非常雄厚的公司正在试图部署微卫星，以从根本上取代 GPS 和 RTK。这难道不会在最终基本上消除部署所有这些地面基站的需求吗？
英文原文
>> There's another big push right now for microats to be an alternative to GPS in a way that they can actually provide subcm resolution effectively replacing both GPS and RTK using a a mesh network from SpaceX launched or actually SpaceX. I don't know if SpaceX has looked at doing this, but um I know that there is a very wellunded company that is trying to put up microats to basically replace GPS and RTK. Doesn't that ultimately kind of wash out the need to have all these earth-based base stations?我觉得它们在成本上根本没有竞争的可能，因为光是把东西用卫星送到太空，那实在太……我是说，这些 Geonet 呃基站只要几百美元。你根本不可能在成本上跟 Geonet 竞争。
英文原文
>> I there's no chance they can compete on cost because just sending things to space with satellites that's so I mean these geoet uh base stations are a few hundred bucks. Like you're just not going to compete on cost with with geoet.你认为这在达到规模和饱和度时，能够成为 GPS 本身的可行替代品吗？
英文原文
>> Do you think that this is a viable replacement at scale and saturation for GPS itself?不能。GPS 绝对是非常不同的。呃，而且服务等级协议（SLA）也不同。
英文原文
>> No. GPS is definitely very different. Uh and the SLA is different.你必须……你必须具备无处不在的覆盖能力……
英文原文
>> You've got to you've got to have ubiquity for是的。作为 GPS 的……嗯，作为 GPS 替代品，这就是为什么你必须到处都有卫星。你必须拥有足够多的卫星，但只要你有足够多的卫星，你实际上就能达到 RTK 精度，而不再需要庞大昂贵的 GPS。
英文原文
>> Yeah. for GPS um for GPS alternative which is why you have to have the satellites everywhere. You got to have enough but if you get enough satellites you can actually get to RTK precision and you don't need to have the big expensive GPS.你会遇到一种混合形态，即同时拥有一堆地球静止轨道（GEO）和低地球轨道（LEO）卫星，外加遍布各处的一大堆基站。这种混合形态可能……
英文原文
>> You'd have a hybrid situation where you have a bunch of GEO and LEO plus a bunch of base stations all over the place. That hybrid situation probably你其实可以……仅凭 LEO 就能完全取代所有的 GEO 那些东西。那是目标。然后再……嗯，只要你拥有足够多的低轨卫星，而这是 SpaceX 开启的能力。是的。
英文原文
>> you could actually the Leo the LEO alone can replace all of the the geo stuff. That's the goal. And then um if you get enough of them which SpaceX unlocks. Yeah.还有，嗯，Kyle，当你考虑其他计算任务时，比如需要完成的工作，其他通证的情况怎么样？在分布式训练领域涌现出了一批通证。你是怎么锁定这一个并排除其他的？
英文原文
>> And um Kyle, what what about like other tokens when you think about other compute tasks like work to be done for example? There's a bunch of tokens that have emerged in distributed training. How did you hone in on this and exclude the others?我是说，并非指更看好这个胜过那个。
英文原文
>> I mean, not meaning prefer this over that.我是说，我多年前就认识了 Geonet 的创始人。他向我们推介过，我结识了他并一直在关注这件事。分布式训练那些东西，有一大帮人在尝试。我对此持相当怀疑的态度。我认为这根本行不通。嗯，分布式推理那些方向是有可能的，尽管它的效果并没有我们原本希望的那么好。我几年前确实在这个方向上投过一些钱。它在发挥作用，但达不到 A+ 的级别。嗯，最后一件事，其实 David 针对你之前的问题，我想强调的还有能耗。发射到太空消耗的能量，要远远多于连接地面上的基站。嗯，所以是的，对于一台拖拉机来说也许这无所谓，但对于无人机或者任何其他对电池敏感的应用来说，地面基站永远会是呃首选方案。
英文原文
>> I mean, I met the GeoNet founder years ago. He pitched us and I've gotten to know him and followed it. The distributed training stuff, there's a whole bunch of people trying it. I I'm pretty skeptical. I don't think any of it's going to work. Um the distributed inference stuff is is possible although it has not worked as well as we would have hoped. I did put some money behind that a few years ago. It's it's working but not not A+. Um one last thing actually David on on your prior question I want to highlight is also energy use. Going to space just consumes way more energy than going to a base station that's you know on the ground. Um and so yeah for a tractor maybe that doesn't matter but for a drone or for any other battery sensitive application ground is always going to be uh the preferred solution.方案评价与仓位规模
超级有意思。讲得好。谢谢你。非常感谢。
英文原文
>> Super interesting. Well done. Thank you. Thank you so much.好的，各位。
英文原文
>> All right, guys.在我们投票之前，Chamath，说说你的反馈吧。
英文原文
>> Before we vote, Timoth, give your feedback.这就是我喜欢的地方。我贯彻斯坦·德鲁肯米勒（Stan Druckenmiller）的投资调研学派。我非常信奉它。
英文原文
>> Here's what I like. I I I apply the Stan Ducken Miller school of invest investigate. I really believe in it.确实。
英文原文
>> Yes.嗯，如果你在里面没有任何切身利益，你就不会去在乎。而这种内容正是我喜欢的。我喜欢听到这样的点子。
英文原文
>> Um if you don't have any skin in the game, you don't care. And this is the kind of stuff that I love. I love hearing ideas like this.这四个我都喜欢。我的分歧在于仓位规模。所以，你知道的，每一个标的都展现出了某种不对称的超额收益，然后它们每一个的下行风险又截然不同。
英文原文
>> I love all four. My my difference is in sizing. So, you know, there's there's certain asymmetric alpha that each one of these exhibits and then there's very different downside risk for each of them.呃，此外还有流动性问题。所以，举例来说，像 Kyle 的点子我很喜欢。问题是我没法投入足够的资金为我运作，所以你……我觉得今天我甚至连 100 万美元都投不进去。要建起规模来，就会撼动市场。嗯，所以我必须……我可能得是……大概投个一两万、三万美元，然后也许开始逐步买入。Talon，我认为他们能吸收几千万，大家眼睛都不用眨一下。嗯，那家生物科技公司，那里的问题在于，正如你 Freberg 所说的，我认为存在这种不连续的流动性归零风险，但随后它又有 10 倍的上涨空间。所以这简直就像巨大的……
英文原文
>> Uh, and then there's also liquidity issues. So, for example, like I love Kyle's idea. The problem is I I could not get enough working for me where so you I don't even think I could get a million dollars in today. It would to scale in it would move the market. Um, so I would have to I'd have to probably I'd be like 10 20 30,000 and then maybe start to buy into it. talent. I think they could absorb tens of millions and people wouldn't bite an eyelash. Um the biotech company the issue there is that I think that there is as you said Freberg this discontinuous illi liquidity zero risk but then there's the 10x upside. So there's just like huge礼来（Eli Lilly）会竞购它的……
英文原文
>> Lily will bid for it然后 MGM 我觉得就……所以我认为 MGM 和 Talon 是你可以建立庞大仓位的标的……
英文原文
>> and then MGM I think is just so I think MGM and Talon are the ones you could have huge sizing in然后其他那些我认为你持有一部分，因为它们就像彩票一样。我觉得你关于 MGM 的观点……
英文原文
>> and then the other ones I think you have a piece because they're like lottery tickets. I think your point on MGM.好的。等一下，稍等。让我先盘点一下。所以，第一家公司……
英文原文
>> Okay. Wait, hold on. Let me just review. So, company number one是 MGM……
英文原文
was MGM那是……
英文原文
>> and that was度假村（Resorts）。好的。
英文原文
>> Resorts. Okay.第二家公司，
英文原文
>> Company number two,Talon。
英文原文
>> Talon.Talon Energy。
英文原文
>> Talon Energy.第三家公司，
英文原文
>> Company number three,Actis
英文原文
Actis
Therapeutics。对。
英文原文
Therapeutics.
Yeah.
然后
英文原文
And
then
Geodet。
英文原文
Geodet.
Geodet。不是公司，不过我猜是代币。
英文原文
Geodet.
Not
company,
but
I
guess
token.
对。
英文原文
Yeah.
第四家公司，Geodet。
英文原文
Company
number
four,
Geodet.
而且你买的是代币，不是公司。你觉得，呃，可能对你也是，Gavin，比如——
英文原文
And
you're
buying
the
token,
not
the
company.
Do
you
think
the
um
maybe
for
you
too,
Gavin,
like
the
Gavin，你来给他们排个序。
英文原文
Gavin,
you
rank
them.
哎，不，甚至在你排序之前，先告诉我们你觉得这个形式怎么样，然后评估一下这些公司。我们最后再做排名。我们要按 4、3、2——我们要在台上排出 4、3、2、1，不过先给我讲讲你对这些路演的总体看法，你喜欢什么，你的感受是什么。
英文原文
Well,
no,
even
before
you
rank,
just
tell
us
what
you
think
of
the
format
and
then
assess
the
companies.
We'll
do
ranking
at
the
end.
We're
going to
do
4
We're
going
to
do
4
3
2
1
on
stage,
but
give
me
your
general
ideas
about
the
pitches,
what
you
liked,
what
you
did.
我觉得这些路演非常棒。嗯，我觉得这个形式太棒了。我明年肯定会扩大它的规模。有些平台可以让你们搞一个 All-In 投资组合或者 ETF，供大家交易。所以这或许是个方向。
英文原文
I
thought
the
pitches
were
great.
Um
I
thought
the
format
was
amazing.
I
would
for
sure
expand
it
next
year.
There
are
platforms
that
you
guys
could
have
a
all
all-in
basket
or
ETF
that
people
could
trade
in.
So
like
maybe
that's
something.
你明年会参加吗？
英文原文
Will
you
do
it
next
year?
我明年会做路演吗？
英文原文
Will
I
pitch
next
year?
对。
英文原文
Yeah.
Jake，我什么都愿意做。他被套牢了。他被锁定了。
英文原文
Jake,
I'll
do
anything.
He's
locked.
He's
locked.
其实，为了让你当场表态，我会这样要求 Gavin：明年我希望——我们——我认为如果我们能让你来讲讲——
英文原文
Actually,
here's
what
I
would
ask
Gavin
to
put
you
on
the
spot.
Next
year
I
would
we
I
think
we
would
all
learn
and
benefit
if
you
would
do
嗯，硅与存储的超级周期。
英文原文
um
silicon
and
memory
super
cycle.
当然。你愿意为我们做这个吗？
英文原文
Sure.
Would
you
be
willing
to
do
that
for
us?
我会做的。
英文原文
I'll
do
it.
算我一个。
英文原文
Sign
me
up.
太好了。极好。算我一个。噢，谢谢你。那么，继续说。
英文原文
Perfect.
Great.
Sign
me
up.
Oh,
thank
you.
So,
keep
going.
路演点评与风险收益评估
哎，不。就路演本身而言，我确实认为，嗯，我认为区分什么是极具娱乐性的精彩路演与我认为什么是真正优秀的风险收益比，这点很重要。嗯，我认为 Oleg 和 Kyle 的路演做得非常出色，但我既不是医疗健康领域的投资者，也不是加密货币的投资者。我非常享受这些宣讲。我其实觉得 GET 非常有趣。嗯，我很高兴从 Oleg 那里得知我完全有可能活到 100 多岁。这对我和房间里的每一个人来说都是好消息。我很喜欢所有那些，嗯，军事方面的术语和类比。
英文原文
Well,
no.
As
far
as
the
pitches,
I
do
think
um
I
think
it's
important
to
disagregate
like
what
was
a
really
great
entertaining
pitch
versus
what
I
think
is
is
a
really
good
riskreward.
Um
I
thought
Oleg
and
Kyle
did
a
great
job
with
the
pitches,
but
I'm
I'm
not
a
healthcare
investor,
nor
am
I
a
crypto
investor.
I
thoroughly
enjoyed
the
presentations.
I
actually
thought
GET
was
very
interesting.
Um
I'm
happy
to
learn
from
Oleg
that
I
might
lift
well
into
my
100s.
That
was
good
news
for
me
and
everybody
in
the
room.
I
enjoyed
all
the
um
the
military
um
terminology
and
analogies.
是的，那真的很棒。呵。
英文原文
Yeah,
that
was
really
great.
Huh.
那很棒。
英文原文
That
was
great.
真的很棒。
英文原文
Really
great.
我确实认为，嗯，纯粹从风险收益的角度来看，我认为 MGM 是最好的。嗯，你的下行空间因为 Barry Diller 的竞标而确实被封住了，而且你还有，呃，日本和迪拜，我认为它们是非常有价值的未来价值来源。呃，而且我也确实认为 Talon 同样是一个非常引人注目的风险标的。我只是觉得 AI 领域的一切都必须应对不断增加的监管风险，正如我们上次，嗯，上次我和你们一起录播客时谈到的那样，我不知道该如何去量化它，而且，嗯，你们知道我一直——
英文原文
I
do
think
um
from
a
pure
riskreward
perspective,
I
thought
MGM
was
the
best.
um
your
downside
is
really
capped
because
of
the
Barry
Diller
bid
and
then
you
have
uh
Japan
and
Dubai
as
I
think
very
valuable
future
sources
of
value.
Uh
and
and
I
do
think
talent
is
also
a
very
compelling
risk.
I
just
think
everything
in
AI
is
going
to
need
to
grapple
with
increasing
regulatory
risk
which
we
talked
about
last
time
um
that
that
I
was
on
the
pod
with
you
guys
and
I
don't
know
how
to
dimensionalize
that
and
um
you
know
I've
been
就像对 Talon 来说，巨大的负外部性与 Talon 本身无关。
英文原文
like
the
big
negative
externality
for
talent
is
nothing
to
do
with
talent.
与 Talon 毫无关系。
英文原文
Nothing
to
do
with
talent.
就像美国政府突然自上而下出台政策限制价格，诸如此类的。
英文原文
It's
like
something
over
the
top
from
the
US
government
caps
prices
something
something.
对。面临将实验室国有化。
英文原文
Yeah.
You
have
nationalizes
the
lab.
面临政府换届。面临国会换届。通过的法律，我认为会把地面算力当作公用事业来监管其供需。但我确实认为除此以外，Talon 是极其引人注目的。而且——
英文原文
You
have
a
change
in
administration.
You
have
a
change
in
Congress.
There's
laws
that
are
passed
that
I
think
it
terrestrial
computes
the
utility
supply
demand.
But
I
actually
think
outside
of
that,
Talon
was
super
compelling.
And
所以你选了 MGM，选了 Talon。现在另外两个呢？
英文原文
so
you
got
MGM,
you
got
Talent.
Now
the
other
two.
我，我，我，我觉得它们都是很棒的路演。我能把它们并列排在第三吗，就——
英文原文
I
I
I
I
thought
they
were
both
great
pitches.
I
can
I
tie
them
for
third
just
哎，不，先别给打分。只谈谈对那两个想法的任何反馈，还是说那些对你来说有点像彩票，或者——
英文原文
Well,
no,
don't
even
give
the
score.
just
any
feedback
on
those
two
ideas
or
those
are
just
a
little
bit
lottery
ticket
for
you
or
不，我觉得 Actis 非常引人注目。他们正试图做一些不同的事情，正如 Oleg 所说的，如果你能遇到一家有潜力成为平台的生物科技公司，而且他们拥有某种机制，无论是在成药方面，还是在靶向方面，或者如果你拥有某种具有广泛适用性的东西，那才是你在生物科技领域能够获得那些极少见的、真正达到千亿美元以上量级回报的时候，所以我觉得 Actis 的那一部分极具吸引力。
英文原文
No,
I
thought
Actis
was
was
very
compelling.
They're
trying
to
trying
to
do
something
different
as
Oleg
said
if
you
ever
get
a
biotech
company
that
be
can
become
a
platform
and
they
have
a
mechanism
whether
it's
of
drugging
whether
it's
targeting
or
if
you
have
something
that
is
broadly
applicable
that
is
when
you
can
get
these
really
really
big
hundred
billion
dollar
plus
outcomes
in
biotech
which
are
rare
so
I
thought
that
part
of
um
activis
was
super
compelling
而且，嗯——
英文原文
and
um
你不玩加密货币。
英文原文
you
don't
play
crypto
我不玩加密货币，但我认为关于 Geonet 的整场讨论非常精彩，我也很高兴。
英文原文
I
don't
play
crypto,
but
I
thought
the
entire
go
Geonet
discussion
was
fascinating
and
I'm
happy.
有没有什么东西能让你不再作壁上观、让你跳进加密货币的游戏里，还是说你就是——你为什么不参与加密货币的游戏？
英文原文
Is
there
anything
that
would
get
you
off
the
bench
and
make
you
jump
into
the
crypto
game
or
it's
just
you're
why
are
you
not
playing
the
crypto
game?
我对加密货币的感觉，完全就跟我对单板滑雪的感觉一模一样。好吧。我并不是一个很好的运动员。我花了一辈子的时间学习如何双板滑雪，水平还行。嗯，一想到要去玩单板滑雪，在已经接受了成千上万个小时的双板滑雪指导之后——
英文原文
I
feel
about
crypto
exactly
the
way
I
do
about
snowboarding.
Okay.
I'm
I'm
not
a
very
good
athlete.
I've
spent
a
lifetime
learning
how
to
ski
and
I'm
okay.
Um,
and
just
the
idea
of
getting
on
a
snowboard,
having,
you
know,
thousands
of
hours
of
ski
instruction,
你不想为了那点收获去遭那份罪。
英文原文
you
don't
want
the
pain
for
the
game.
是的。而且我在股票和公开市场证券投资方面拥有 25 年的经验、教训、痛苦和伤疤，而加密货币对我而言就有点像单板滑雪，但是，你们知道，每个想玩单板滑雪的人，那都挺好。
英文原文
Yes.
And
I
have
25
years
of
lessons,
learnings,
pain,
scars
from
from
investing
in
equities
and
public
securities
and
just
crypto.
It's
a
little
bit
like
snowboarding
for
me,
but
like,
you
know,
everybody
who
wants
to
snowboard,
that's
great.
每个人都想玩加密货币，那挺好。只要别横着滑下山把粉雪给毁了就行。David，
英文原文
Everybody
wants
to
do
crypto,
that's
great.
Just
please
don't
go
sideways
down
the
mountain
and
ruin
the
powder.
David,
我看你对 MGM、Talon 的评估——
英文原文
I
think
your
assessment
of
MGM
Talon,
我觉得，我觉得 MGM，呃，我衡量的是收益上限、下行风险以及时间周期。MGM 大概可能有 3 倍的回报。我认为它也遗漏了我听过很多的这一点：你实际上可以提升这些拉斯维加斯物业的变现能力。我们之前在拉斯维加斯跟我们的一位朋友聊天。他们在威尼斯人酒店，每逢球形馆（Sphere）有演出的日子，每天能产生 100 万美元的增量 EBITDA，这是一个令人难以置信的统计数据，它告诉你一旦拥有了吸引客流的娱乐项目，博彩收入就会直接飙升——
英文原文
I
think
I
think
MGM
uh
I
look
at
the
kind
of
return
upside,
the
downside
and
the
timeline.
MGM's
like
probably
a
3x.
I
think
it's
also
missing
this
point
that
I've
heard
a
lot
about
on
you
can
actually
upgrade
the
monetization
on
these
Vegas
properties.
We
were
talking
to
a
friend
of
ours
in
Vegas.
They're
they're
making
a
million
bucks
a
day
in
incremental
ibita
every
day
that
they
have
a
show
at
the
sphere
um
at
the
uh
at
the
Venetian
hotel
which
is
an
unbelievable
statistic
which
tells
you
that
when
you
have
the
entertainment
draw
the
gambling
revenue
just
flies
飙升
英文原文
flies
所以，我另外听说 Barry Diller 花了很多时间试图重塑这些物业的娱乐业态，并且认为自己有办法做到这一点，从而带动博彩收入飙升。所以，我认为即使你把这些新地点的上行空间打个折扣，这里可能也大有可为。我确实很看好竞标提供的保底，然后哪怕这项竞标毫无进展、他们继续维持现状运营，并且表态“我们要拒绝竞标、继续独立运营”，可以说在 2 年内也有 3 倍回报。Talon 或许有 3 倍、5 倍的上行空间，但那是 8 年后的事了。而且我认为我会用来作为估值指标的 Talon 的另一项挑战在于，我认为它比 MGM 对利率更敏感，呃，因为购电协议确实是其大部分收入的来源。因此你得到的折现率将是利率水平的函数。所以我认为如果利率飙升——有人可能会争辩说这里存在风险——你实际上会看到他给 Talon 预期的 15 倍估值倍数出现收缩。所以这将是我对 Talon 未来一段时间的下行情景预设。嗯，至于 Actis，我确实感到担忧，因为我投资了一家拥有 D 蛋白结合物的公司，该结合物在治疗实体瘤方面表现出非常强的疗效。我认为目前正在讨论的针对实体瘤的新疗法可能会给它带来风险。我认为中国风险是切实存在的，因为我在整个生物科技领域都见识过。所有东西都会被仿制，然后人们会去中国，但他们也可能会大获成功，如果他们真的能拿到良好的临床读数，礼来可能会在 6 个月内对其发起竞购。所以上行空间固然存在，但如果读数糟糕、或者面临中国竞争、或者出现某种新疗法，下行幅度可能在 50% 到 75%。所以我认为排名大概是 MGM、Talon、Actis，然后对我而言，Geodet 那个部分，呃，我，我只是觉得太空这条路很可能是大势所趋。在未来十年里它将取代所有的 RTK 和所有的 GPS。嗯，这必然会搭上那些已经在发射升空的系统的顺风车。
英文原文
and
so
Barry
Diller
I
have
heard
separately
has
been
spending
a
lot
of
time
on
trying
to
reinvent
the
entertainment
at
these
properties
and
thinks
he
has
an
idea
on
how
to
do
it
which
will
cause
the
gambling
revenue
to
fly.
So,
I
think
even
if
you
discount
the
upside
on
these
new
locations,
there's
probably
a
lot
of
work
to
be
done.
And
I
do
like
the
floor
on
the
bid
and
then
you
got
call
it
3x
in
2
years
even
if
this
bid
goes
nowhere
and
they
keep
the
thing
running
and
they're
like
we're
going
to
reject
the
bid
and
keep
running
independently.
Talon
is
maybe
3x
upside,
5x
upside,
but
it's
eight
years
out.
And
I
think
one
of
the
other
challenges
with
Talon
that
I
would
kind
of
use
as
a
valuation
metric
is
I
think
it's
more
interest
rate
sensitive
than
MGM
is
um
because
the
power
purchase
agreements
really
are
where
a
lot
of
the
revenue
comes
from.
So
you're
going
to
get
a
discount
rate
that's
a
multip
that's
a
function
of
where
interest
rates
are
sitting.
So
I
think
if
interest
rates
shoot
up
which
some
might
argue
there's
there's
risk
there
you
actually
get
margin
compression
from
that
15x
outlook
that
he
has
for
Talon.
So
that
would
be
my
kind
of
downside
scenario
on
Talon.
um
in
the
in
the
time
ahead
and
Actis
I
do
worry
because
I'm
an
investor
in
a
company
that's
got
a
D
protein
conjugate
that
shows
really
strong
efficacy
in
getting
solid
tumors.
I
think
that
there
are
new
modalities
for
therapeutics
for
solid
tumors
that
are
being
discussed
that
that
may
kind
of
put
this
at
risk.
I
think
the
China
risk
is
legit
because
I've
seen
it
across
the
board
in
biotech.
Everything
gets
ripped
off
and
people
go
to
China,
but
they
could
have
a
hit
and
Lily
could
bid
on
it
in
6
months
if
they
actually
get
a
good
readout.
So
there's
certainly
upside,
but
the
downside's
probably
50
75%
if
they
get
a
bad
readout
or
China
or
some
new
modality
comes
out.
So
I
think
the
ranking
is
probably
MGM
Talon
Actis
and
then
the
for
me
the
geodet
piece
uh
I
I
just
think
the
space
thing
is
is
likely
the
path.
It's
going
to
replace
all
RTK
and
all
GPS
in
the
next
decade.
Um
it's
an
inevitable
piggyback
on
systems
that
are
already
going
up.
好，太棒了。我想每个人我都了解了。呃，对我而言，我把它们分成两类。嗯，我认为，呃，AKTS 和 GOD，那些就像彩票，可能会带来疯狂的回报，但你们知道，如果它们，你们知道，呃，没有真正起效，归零的概率很大；而 MGM 和 Talon 显然拥有下行保护，那些感觉就像，嗯，人们总会去赌博，而且总会开着灯。所以我这两种都挺喜欢。我实时给每一家投了 20 万。
英文原文
All
right,
great.
So
I
think
I've
got
everybody.
Uh
for
me,
I
put
them
into
two
buckets.
Um
I
think
uh
AKTS
and
GOD
those
are
like
lottery
tickets
could
be
crazy
returns
but
you
know
there's
a
there's
a
big
probability
of
a
zero
there
if
they
don't
you
know
uh
actually
work
and
then
MGM
and
Talon
obviously
got
the
downside
protection
and
those
feel
like
um
people
will
always
gamble
and
leave
the
lights
on.
So
I
kind
of
like
both
of
those.
I
put
200k
into
each
in
real
time.
赌博并开着灯。呃，所以这只是我的——我没有公开交易的工具。
英文原文
Gamble
and
leave
the
lights.
Uh,
so
that's
just
like
my
I
don't
have
a
public
vehicle.
你真的买了吗？
英文原文
Did
you
actually
buy?
我只是在做日内交易。
英文原文
I'm
just
day
trading.
我，我买了他份额的一半，而我没有 Robinhood 账户。我必须给我的办公室打电话。所以我当时就说，我就接——
英文原文
I
I
bought
half
of
his
action
and
I
don't
have
a
Robin
Hood
account.
I
have
to
call
my
office.
So
I
was
like
just
I'll
take
你输了，伙计。
英文原文
you
lose,
buddy.
我接你一半的——我刚才没见你用大拇指操作。
英文原文
I'll
take
half
your
I
didn't
see
you
with
your
thumbs.
我整体涨了 7%
英文原文
I'm
up
7%
across
the
投资组合。所以我认为我不能把你算在这里。
英文原文
portfolio. So I don't think I can include you here.买入步骤。
英文原文
>> Steps to buy.我排了。我把我选的三个按我说的顺序排了。所以不管怎样，我就快速给出我的排序。我选 MGM、Talon、呃、G、AKTS。
英文原文
>> I did. I I waited the three in the order I said on my So anyway, I I'll just give mine really quick. I I will go MGM, Talon, uh, G, AKTS.Gavin 只会赚上万亿。
英文原文
>> Gavin's only gonna make trillion.让我们把，让我们把四位路演者请出来。
英文原文
>> Let's bring the Let's bring our four pictures out.我们有一千美元。请拿
英文原文
>> We have $1,000. Please get the两个男人拥抱的雕像。等等，等等，不。在你宣布之前，我需要那个极其 Alpha 纯爷们的奖杯。请把 All-In 纯爷们 Alpha 奖杯拿来。还有我需要我们的四位路演者上台。这样更刺激。这就像公布最佳男主角五位候选人时那样让人紧张。
英文原文
>> two men hugging statue. Wait, wait, no. Before you announce it, I need the extremely alpha male heterosexual trophy. The all-in heterosexual alpha male trophy, please. And I need our four pitchers to come on stage. It makes it more exciting. It's like makes it uncomfortable when like they show the five people for best actor.对。
英文原文
>> Yeah.是的。
英文原文
>> Yes.你把那些放在桌子上。
英文原文
>> You put those on the table.等等，我的奖杯呢？奖杯。你们拿着奖杯。
英文原文
>> But wait, where's my award doing? The award. You guys have the award.请把极其纯爷们的 Alpha 奖杯拿给我。
英文原文
>> Please bring me the extremely heterosexual alpha male award.等我展示给你们看奖杯时你们就会明白为什么了。把这个递给我。
英文原文
>> You'll see why when I show you the award. Pass me this.再往这边一点。
英文原文
>> Over a little more.好的。
英文原文
>> All right.把那个奖杯拿给我。让我展示给你们看我们是怎么做 3D 建模的。
英文原文
>> Bring me that award. Let me show you how we 3D modeled this.没人想看这个。
英文原文
>> No one wants to see this.看这个。这是两个男人
英文原文
>> Look at this. This is two men尴尬地拥抱在一起。我们做这个的方式，绝了。过来，Friedberg。我展示给你看。我才不跟你抱。
英文原文
>> uncomfortably hugging. And the way we did this, it's the best. Come here, Freeberg. I'll show you. I'm not doing it with you.来吧，Friedberg。
英文原文
>> Come on, Freeberg.你明天再做。
英文原文
>> You do it tomorrow.Free。好吧，行吧。他感觉非常自在。
英文原文
>> Free. Okay, fine. He's extremely comfortable.那是我和大卫。
英文原文
>> That's David and I.是大卫和你。但让我们展示给他们看我们是怎么建模的。我们就来个长长的——
英文原文
>> It's David and you. But let's show them how we modeled this. We just did a long这很尴尬。而且我们还要多抱五秒钟。
英文原文
>> This is uncomfortable. And we hold it for five extra seconds.到两分钟时，你就会释放催产素。这就来了。
英文原文
>> At 2 minutes, you get the release of oxytocin. There it is.观众奖与 Bestie 评选结果
好的。先生们，就是这样了。你们拿到结果了吗？请讲。观众奖。
英文原文
>> Okay. So, gentlemen, this is it. Do you guys have the results? Go ahead. Audience award.观众奖。
英文原文
>> Audience award.那么，基于现场观众的 150 票，呃，我是直接从第四名报到第一名吗？
英文原文
>> So, based on 150 votes from the audience, uh, do I just go four to one?从第四到第一。
英文原文
>> Four to one.从第四到第一更刺激。
英文原文
>> Four to one is more exciting.好。第四名，呃，得票率 5%，是 Kyle Sani。
英文原文
>> Okay. Fourth place, uh, with 5% of the vote was Kyle Sani.好的。上榜了，干得好。
英文原文
>> Okay. Well done on the board.非常接近的第二名。
英文原文
>> A very close second place.不，第三。第三名。
英文原文
>> No, third. Third.第三名，得票率 21%，Oleg Rog——
英文原文
>> Third place with 21% of the vote. Oleg rockRog。哎呀，各位，我们正逼近最终结果。非常富有戏剧性。
英文原文
>> leg. Oh boy, we're closing in here, guys. Very dramatic.有 50——50% 的票数，谁是第二名？
英文原文
>> And with 50 50% who's number two.我要交给你。不，你现在宣布第一名。
英文原文
>> I'm going to go to you. No, you say number one now.好。好。
英文原文
>> Okay. Okay.不。好。好吧，抱歉。是的，你说得对。获得 24% 选票——
英文原文
>> No. Okay. Well, sorry. Yeah, you're right. With 24% of the vote获得第二名的是，
英文原文
>> in second place,代表 MGM 的 Aaron Cowen。获得第一名、拿下 50% 选票的是：Dan Drafus。
英文原文
>> Aaron Cowan for MGM. NUMBER ONE WITH 50% of the vote. Dan Drafus.哇。难以置信。鼓掌掌声鼓励。做得很棒。不过现在轮到 Bestie 投票了。
英文原文
>> Wow. Unbelievable. Give it up. Nicely done. Now the bestie though.等等，在我们宣布 Bestie 之前先等一下。赢下这个你现在感觉怎么样？把奖杯递给他。你们看起来太不自在了。
英文原文
>> Wait, hold on before we do the bestie. How do you feel right now having won this? Pass him the award. You guys look so uncomfortable.你们真——这非常——
英文原文
>> You guys are really It's very不过把奖杯递给他拿一会儿，让他拿着。
英文原文
>> But pass him his award for a second and let him hold it.颁发奥斯卡金像奖。
英文原文
>> Give it academy award.感谢所有人，说说你是如何走到这一步的。
英文原文
>> Thank everybody how you got to this place.说几句。我拿到了我的奖。我拿到了我的龙舌兰酒。
英文原文
>> Say a few words. I got my award. I got my tequila.谢谢。
英文原文
>> Thank you.给你。好的。干得漂亮。
英文原文
>> There you go. All right. Well done.好的。现在——好的。
英文原文
>> Okay. Now Okay.这是那个奖。四、三、二、一。这里结果相对类似。呃，第四名是 Kyle Simmani。好的。
英文原文
>> That's the award. 4 3 2 1. It's uh relatively similar here. Uh fourth place was Kyle Simmani. Okay.第三名是 Oleg。
英文原文
>> Third place was Oleg.第二名 Dan Drafus。第一名 Aaron Cowen。大逆转。反转了观众的投票结果。
英文原文
>> Second place Dan Drafus. First place Aaron Cowen. Big upset. Flip the audience vote.给你。
英文原文
>> There you go.好的。所以 MGM 获胜了。
英文原文
>> All right. So MGM wins.好的。
英文原文
>> All right.谢谢大家。
英文原文
>> Thanks guys.太精彩了。
英文原文
>> This was amazing.好的。感谢大家的参与。
英文原文
>> All right. Thank you all for participating.非常感谢。
英文原文
>> Thank you very much.非常感谢各位的光临，我们下次见——
英文原文
>> Thank you so much for coming and we'll see you next我要 All in 了。