选民心声与开票日背景
如果让你用一个词来形容你对这次选举的感受，你脑海中会浮现出什么词？
英文原文
>> If you could describe how you are feeling about this election in a single word, is there a word that comes to mind?充满希望。
英文原文
>> Hopeful.焦虑。
英文原文
>> Anxious.令人害怕。
英文原文
>> Scary.重要。
英文原文
>> Important.意义深远。
英文原文
>> Consequential.势在必行。
英文原文
>> Needed.整个这届政府就是一团糟。
英文原文
>> This whole administration is shisha.我很高兴一切终于结束了，我不用再听那些广告了。
英文原文
>> I'm relieved that it's over and I don't have to listen to the advertisements anymore.算是乐观吧。
英文原文
>> Optimistic-ish.这里是《纽约时报》，我是迈克尔·巴巴罗。这里是《The Daily》。
英文原文
>> From The New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro. This [music] is The Daily.能问一下你今天在参议院选举中投给谁了吗？
英文原文
>> May I ask who you voted for today in the Senate race?哦，当然是阿卜杜勒·埃尔-萨耶德（Abdul El-Sayed）。对，绝对是他。
英文原文
>> Oh, Abdul El-Sayed, of course. Yeah. Absolutely.我不是帕克斯顿（Paxton）的最大粉丝，但对我来说，这有点像两害相权取其轻。
英文原文
>> I'm not the biggest Paxton fan, but to me it was kind of the lesser of two evils.我投给了詹姆斯·塔拉里科（James Talarico）。
英文原文
>> I voted for James Tallarico.我对塔拉里科没什么意见，但我觉得投给他就是投给查克·舒默（Chuck Schumer）。
英文原文
>> Nothing against Tallarico, but I think voting for [music] him is a vote for Chuck Schumer.我基本都投了民主党。我平时不总是这样，但今天这么做了。
英文原文
>> I did pretty much go Democratic. I don't always do that, but I did today.我投给了玛丽·佩尔托拉（Mary Peltola）。
英文原文
>> I did vote for [music] Mary Peltola.我投给苏珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）。
英文原文
>> I'm voting for Susan Collins.我当然绝对投给了特洛伊·杰克逊（Troy Jackson）。
英文原文
>> I have definitely voted for Troy Jackson, of course.没错，我打算捏着鼻子投给那个蠢货。打算投给——
英文原文
>> Yeah, I'm going to hold my nose and vote for the dope. Going to vote for[音乐]
英文原文
>> [music]特洛伊·杰克逊。参议院里全是一群笨蛋。至少他是属于我们这边的笨蛋。
英文原文
>> Troy Jackson. The Senate's full of idiots. At least he's our idiot.经过两年的竞选活动、超过110亿美元的广告投入，以及在阿拉斯加和密歇根的最后关头戏剧性事件，2026年中期选举现在交到了美国选民手中。
英文原文
>> After two years of campaigning, more than 11 billion dollars of advertising, and last-minute dramas in Alaska and Michigan, [music] the 2026 midterm election is now in the hands of the American voters. [music]你今天投票考虑的头号议题是什么？
英文原文
>> What's the number one issue you're voting on today?哦，阻止现政权。
英文原文
>> Oh, to stop the current regime.因为特朗普，现在的赌注非常大。其他一切与之相比都显得黯然失色。
英文原文
>> The stakes are very high because of Trump. Everything else [music] pales in comparison.我们想让我们的国家保持美国的本色。
英文原文
>> We want to keep our country American.我们这里绝对不想要伊斯兰教法。
英文原文
>> We don't want Sharia law here at all.我脑子里最大的问题是经济。所有的东西不只是翻倍，而是翻了三倍。我是说，天哪，一包薯片要4美元？太荒谬了。
英文原文
>> The biggest issue on my mind is the economy. Everything just don't double, triple. I mean, damn, $4 for a bag of chips? That's ridiculous.是啊。
英文原文
>> Yeah.议题太多了。你怎么可能只想得到一个？我什么都担心。
英文原文
>> There's so many issues. How can you think of just one? I'm worried about everything.今天，在计票进行之际，我的同事、首席政治分析师内特·科恩（Nate Cohn）将为大家提供一份如何理解今晚开票结果的指南。
英文原文
>> Today, [music] as the ballot counting my colleague, chief political analyst Nate [music] Cohn, offers a guide for how to understand tonight's results.选举过后，当你醒来时，你希望看到什么样的大标题？
英文原文
>> After the election, [music] when you wake up, what are the headlines that you're hoping to see?红色浪潮。
英文原文
>> A red wave.没有大的蓝色浪潮。
英文原文
>> That there is no big blue [music] wave.天哪，我希望大家预测的这股蓝潮真的能成为现实。
英文原文
>> Good God, I'm hoping that this predicted blue wave is actually a real thing.人人都在预测的蓝潮。我很想看到那个头条。
英文原文
>> The blue wave that everyone's predicting. I would love to see that headline.今天是11月3日，星期二，选举日。内特。
英文原文
>> It's Tuesday, November 3rd, [music] election day. Nate.迈克尔。
英文原文
>> Michael.选举日快乐。
英文原文
>> Happy election day.选举日快乐。
英文原文
>> Happy election day.祝你，也祝所有庆祝这一天的人快乐。
英文原文
>> To you, and to all who celebrate.祝每一位美国选民选举日快乐。
英文原文
>> To every American voter, happy election day.最新民调与参议院争夺战
那么，内特，我们今天来到这里，是为了做我们在前几次选举中开始和你一起做的事情，那就是为我们的听众提供一份选举之夜的路线图。因为从今晚东部时间晚上7点左右开始，每个人的屏幕都将被预测结果和突发新闻提醒狂轰滥炸：某某赢下了这个众议院席位，某某丢掉了那个参议院席位，这总是嘈杂喧嚣、让人有点摸不着头脑。所以我们想给大家提供一份通览整晚的用户指南，由你担任我们的向导，或者舰长，随便怎么叫。
英文原文
>> So, Nate, we are here today to do something we started doing with you a few elections ago, which is to offer our listeners a road map to election night. Because, starting around 7:00 p.m. Eastern tonight, everyone's screens are going to be bombarded with projections and breaking news alerts, this person won this House seat, this person lost that Senate seat, and it's always cacophonous, a little confusing, and so we want to give people a user's guide to the entire night with you as our guide, our captain, whichever.你有偏好的比喻吗？
英文原文
>> Do you have a preferred metaphor?偏好的比喻嘛，叫舰长就行。而且舰长，你是有备而来的，带着《纽约时报》在周末完成的一轮最新民调，所以数据最新鲜不过了。那就从这些新数据开始吧。
英文原文
>> Preferred metaphor. Captain will work. And you come armed, Captain, with a new round of polling that the Times completed over the weekend, so it's as up-to-date as imaginable. So, start with that new data.简单回顾一下，正如我们之前在节目中说过的，民主党是夺回众议院的绝对大热门。本届选举的核心悬念在于他们能否赢得参议院——在参议院，他们需要至少拿下两个唐纳德·特朗普以两位数优势获胜的州。这是一项艰巨的任务。我们针对最有可能决定参议院归属的七个州进行的最终民调显示，民主党在所有这七个州都处于领先地位，尽管有时只是微弱领先。这些州是——密歇根、缅因、得克萨斯、俄亥俄、堪萨斯、爱荷华和阿拉斯加。顺便提一下，其中五个州当年曾以两位数的优势投给了特朗普。
英文原文
>> Stepping back briefly, as we've said on the show before, the Democrats are overwhelming favorites to take the House. The big question this election is whether they can win the Senate, where they need to win at least two seats that Donald Trump won by double digits. That's a tough feat. Our final polls of the seven states likeliest to decide the Senate show the Democrats ahead, even if sometimes only narrowly, in all seven of those Those are Those are That's Michigan, Maine, Texas, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa, and Alaska. Five of those states, by the way, voted for Trump by double digits.哇。
英文原文
>> Wow.如果民调完全准确——当然民调从来不会完全准确——但如果它们是对的，那足以让民主党拿下参议院，并取得一场一年前他们甚至无法想象的选举胜利。
英文原文
>> If the polls are exactly right, and they never are, of course, but if they are, that would be enough for Democrats to take the chamber and have an election that they wouldn't have even imagined a year ago.没错。而且我们应该说明一下，这项民调主要是在过去一周发生两起相当引人注目的政治意外之前进行的。先是《纽约时报》对阿拉斯加参议院竞选展开调查，显示民主党候选人玛丽·佩尔托拉的竞选团队在招募搅局候选人——第二个丹·苏利文（Dan Sullivan）——的过程中扮演了角色。随后，似乎这还不够戏剧性，在密歇根州参议院竞选中败北的民主党初选候选人海莉·史蒂文斯（Haley Stevens）对民主党提名人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-萨耶德表示不满，跨越党派界限为他的共和党对手迈克·罗杰斯（Mike Rogers）背书。民调有没有告诉我们，这两出肥皂剧是否对这两场竞选产生了影响？
英文原文
>> Right. And this was, we should just say, polling largely conducted before two pretty dramatic political surprises over the past week. We had a Times investigation into the Alaska Senate race that showed that the Democratic nominee, Mary Peltola's campaign, played a role in recruiting a spoiler candidate, a second Dan Sullivan. And then, after that, as if that wasn't dramatic enough, we had the losing Democratic primary candidate in the Michigan Senate race, Haley Stevens, snub the Democratic nominee, Abdul El-Sayed, and cross party lines and endorse his Republican rival, Mike Rogers. Did the polling tell us anything about whether either of those two soap operas might matter in those two races?在某种程度上，密歇根州的民调发现埃尔-萨耶德医生领先11个百分点。
英文原文
>> In a certain sense, the poll in Michigan found Dr. El-Sayed up by 11 points.哇。
英文原文
>> Wow.这是他在本选举周期中的最大领先优势，比我们在9月份的上一轮民调上升了6个点。
英文原文
>> Which is his largest lead of the cycle, a six-point gain from our last poll in September.看来似乎坚不可摧，或许并没有受到——
英文原文
>> Seemingly undentable, perhaps, by看来坚不可摧。
英文原文
>> would seem undentable海莉·史蒂文斯为他的对手背书的影响。
英文原文
>> Haley Stevens endorsing his rival.确实如此。在目前的政治环境下，鉴于唐纳德·特朗普声望如此低迷，如果我们的民调准确的话，密歇根州的民主党人和倾向民主党的选民看来都会团结在埃尔-萨耶德医生身后。
英文原文
>> That's right. In this political environment, with Donald Trump as unpopular as he is, seems like Michigan Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters are going to get behind Dr. El-Sayed if our poll is right.嗯。那阿拉斯加呢？
英文原文
>> Mhm. Alaska?阿拉斯加的情况截然不同。在那场竞选中，玛丽·佩尔托拉仅领先1个百分点。而那是在——
英文原文
>> Alaska's a pretty different story. That's a race where Mary Peltola only led by one point. And that was a在我们的最终民调中成了胜负难料的胶着状态。
英文原文
>> In our final toss-up.在最终民调中，这较我们倒数第二轮民调中的7点领先有所下滑。她在这次竞选中还遇到了其他问题。大约一个月前，《纽约时报》报道称她可能存在不当对待员工的情况。所以那里的走势可以说是朝着不利的方向发展。现在这可能又是一次最后的冲击，可能有助于她的共和党对手最终胜出。
英文原文
>> final poll, that was a decline from a seven-point lead in our penultimate poll. She has had other issues in this campaign. About a month ago, the Times reported that she had potentially mistreated staff members. So, the trend line there is sort of working the wrong direction. And now, here's what may be a final push that could potentially help her Republican rival get over the top.明白了。不过贝托·奥罗克（Beto O'Rourke）在那份民调中依然领先，只是领先幅度非常微弱。
英文原文
>> Got it. But still Beto O'Rourke is leading in that poll, just not by much at all.确实不多。如果单看我们的数据表面，我认为那场竞选绝对是胜负难分的胶着局面。
英文原文
>> Not by much. I think that race is a true toss-up if you take our data on its face.好的。
英文原文
>> Okay.但是，总的来说，在这七场可能决定参议院控制权的参议院关键争夺战中，民调对民主党人非常有利。现在让我们把这些纳入我们的选举之夜路线图中。
英文原文
>> But, all in all, a very positive poll for Democrats across these seven key Senate races that could determine which party controls that chamber. Let's now incorporate that into our road map for election night.情景一：共和党守住高地，选民重返基本盘
好的。正如我提到的，民主党今年拿下众议院可以说已成定局。理解这一点的一个方式是借助人们在中期选举中喜欢使用的一个比喻，那就是“蓝潮”（blue wave）的概念。
英文原文
>> Okay. Well, you know, as I mentioned, it's sort of inevitable that the Democrats are going to take the House this year. And one way to think about that is in terms of a metaphor that people love to use in midterm elections, and that's the idea of a blue wave.嗯。
英文原文
>> Mhm.“蓝潮”并没有正式的定义。
英文原文
>> There's no formal definition of a blue wave.你一看到就会明白。
英文原文
>> You know it when you see it.你确实看到就会明白，但某种形式的蓝潮在这次选举中是不可避免的。这就是为什么民主党拿下众议院在这次选举中看起来基本板上钉钉。但是，最大的问题在于这股浪潮是否足够大，大到即便在特朗普以两位数优势获胜的选区和州也能产生重大突破，从而带给他们那种横扫全场的胜利感。
英文原文
>> You do know it when you see it, but some kind of blue wave is inevitable in this election. That's the reason why a Democratic House seems essentially inevitable in this election. But, the big question is whether that wave will be big enough to yield major Democratic breakthroughs, even in districts and states that voted for Trump by double digits, to give them that feeling of a sweeping victory.嗯。有可能同时席卷两院。
英文原文
>> Mhm. In potentially both chambers.绝对如此。从这个意义上讲，迈克尔，我认为选举之夜可能会出现四种基本情景。这四种情景都包含蓝潮，但浪潮的高度各不相同，当所有选票清点完毕时，它们带给民主党人或共和党人的感受将大相径庭。
英文原文
>> Absolutely. So, in that sense, Michael, I see four basic scenarios for what might unfold on election night. All four involve blue waves, but they're of different heights, and they will leave Democrats or Republicans feeling very differently when all the votes are counted.好的。那我们就来详细聊聊这四种带浪潮色彩的情景。先从第一种开始。
英文原文
>> Okay. Let's talk through these four wave-ish scenarios. Let's start with the first one.我认为第一种情景是：深红共和党选区的共和党人身上保持干燥。
英文原文
>> I think the first scenario is that the Republicans in heavily Republican districts stay dry.看来你是真打算把这个比喻贯彻到底了。
英文原文
>> So, you're really going to commit to the bit here.贯彻这个比喻。想象你是一个站在悬崖上的共和党人。巨大的蓝潮拍打上岸，浪头和你以往见过的任何一次一样高大，但它够不到身处高位的你，够不到那些特朗普曾赢了10个点以上的选区。
英文原文
>> to the metaphor. You're a Republican on a cliff. The big blue wave crashes ashore. It's as big as any wave you've ever seen, but it doesn't reach you way up at your height, way in these Trump plus 10 districts.怎么会？这浪怎么会够不到他们？
英文原文
>> How? How does that not reach them?一个因素是共和党人在过去一年里重新划分了全国的国会选区地图，使其对自己有利。你可以把这看作是共和党划界人员把他们的成员从海岸线疏散到了高地上。如果没有重新划分选区，他们本来会被冲垮。但现在，他们高高站在浪头之上。也许他们今年能够幸免于难。参议院的情况稍微不同一些。在任何一个特定年份，改选的席位都没那么多，只有三分之一的席位面临改选。碰巧的是，今年面临改选的易受冲击的共和党席位并不多。因此，正如我前面提到的，民主党必须拿下至少两个特朗普曾以至少两位数优势获胜的州。他们必须拿下至少两个位于高地的州。
英文原文
>> Well, one factor is that the Republicans have redrawn the nation's congressional maps to their advantage over the last year. You can think of that as Republican mapmakers evacuating their members away from the shoreline into high ground. So, they would have been knocked out if it weren't for redistricting. Now, they're way up above the wave. Maybe they can survive this year. The Senate is a little bit of a different story. There just aren't that many seats up for grabs in any particular year. Only 1/3 of the seats are at stake. And it so happens that this year there aren't very many vulnerable Republican seats up for grabs. So, as I mentioned earlier, the Democrats will have to flip at least two states that voted for Trump by at least double digits. They'll have to win at least two states that are on high ground.没错。这张版图本身对民主党来说一开始就充满挑战。不公正划分选区让它变得更加艰难。我只是想确认一下，情景一在众议院和参议院的结果看起来会是怎样的。
英文原文
>> Right. The map was inherently challenging for Democrats to begin with. Gerrymandering helped make it even more challenging. I just want to make sure I understand what the results of scenario one look like in the House and in the Senate.在众议院，民主党获胜，但可能优势微弱，仅仅几个席位。在参议院，他们根本没怎么接近过翻盘。我们一直在讨论的一些可能具有竞争力的州，比如堪萨斯、爱荷华、南卡罗来纳，在选举之夜结果并没那么接近。
英文原文
>> In the House, the Democrats win, but maybe only by a modest margin, a handful of seats. In the Senate, they don't really come all that close to flipping the chamber. Some of the states that we've been talking about as potentially competitive, like Kansas or Iowa, South Carolina, they don't end up that close though它们在选举之夜。
英文原文
>> on election night.它们直接归了共和党。
英文原文
>> They just go to the Republicans.它们直接归了共和党，而且这可能很快就会明朗，迈克。
英文原文
>> They just go to the Republicans, and that could be clear pretty quickly, Mike.是的，随着周二时钟逐步进入晚间时段，有哪些迹象可以说明这一点？
英文原文
>> Yeah, what would be the signs of that as the clock starts to tick into the evening hours on Tuesday?不过这里有一个很大的注意事项，我稍后会讲到。当肯塔基和印第安纳在下午6点关闭投票站，随后东南沿海各州在晚上7点关闭投票站时，将有十几个要么竞争高度激烈、要么特朗普曾以两位数优势赢下的选区值得我们观察，在那里我们很快就能感受到共和党在这些深红席位上是否真的像整个周期民调所显示的那样脆弱。
英文原文
>> With one big caveat that I'll get to in a second. When the polls close in Kentucky and Indiana at 6:00 p.m. and then later across the Southeast at 7:00 p.m., there will be over a dozen of these districts that are either highly competitive or that voted for Trump by double digits that we'll be watching, where we'll quickly get a sense of whether the Republicans really are vulnerable in these heavily Republican seats like the polls have suggested all cycle.给我们举几个这类地方的例子。
英文原文
>> Give us some examples of these places.第一个是肯塔基州第6选区。位于列克星敦周边。特朗普当年在那里赢了15个百分点。那场竞选被认为是胜负难分的胶着选区。
英文原文
>> The first one would be Kentucky's 6th District. It's around Lexington. It voted for Trump by 15 points. That race is considered a toss-up.哇。
英文原文
>> Wow.那可是一个特朗普赢了15个点的选区。所以共和党要想赢下这里，只需要让共和党选民归队即可，我们很快就会知道肯塔基第6选区究竟是一场真正的争夺战，还是说共和党人实际上会出来投票，并且投给共和党。之后，在北卡罗来纳和佛罗里达，有一大批经过不公正划分的选区，共和党人把它们重新划成了特朗普赢10个点左右的格局。民主党希望守住其中一些。我们很快会在晚上7点后看到共和党人是否成功翻转了这些选区，以及他们获胜时是否有富余优势。另外我们还会迎来南卡罗来纳和佛罗里达的参议院竞选。共和党人预计会拿下这些竞选，但如果他们赢得相当轻松，比如像以往那样领先将近10个点，那将是一个信号，表明共和党人已经回归基本盘，而共和党在这次选举中最糟糕的情景可能不会上演。不过我必须在这里发出一个重大预警。
英文原文
>> And it's a Trump plus 15 district. So, all the Republicans need to do to win this is just get Republicans to come back on board, and we'll know pretty quickly whether Kentucky 6th is a real race or whether actually Republicans are going to show up, vote, and vote Republican. Later on, there's a whole slew of those gerrymandered districts in North Carolina and Florida the Republicans have redrawn to be around Trump plus 10. Democrats are hoping to hold some of them. We'll see it soon after 7:00 p.m. whether the Republicans succeeded in flipping those districts or not and whether they did so with room to spare. And then we'll also have the Senate races in South Carolina and Florida. Republicans are expected to win those races, but if they win them comfortably, by say nearly 10 points like they usually would, that would be a sign that Republicans have come home and that the worst case scenario for Republicans in this election might not materialize. I do need to have one big warning though here.是什么？
英文原文
>> Which is?那就是，尽管我们相对较快就能知道共和党是否保住了这些席位——
英文原文
>> Which is that although we'll know relatively quickly whether the Republicans have held these seats,身上是否干燥。
英文原文
>> Whether they're dry.他们身上是否保持干燥——在此之前我们会经历一段短暂的时间，看起来这次选举可能非常、非常偏向蓝色。其原因就在于早期投票。非常明显的是，民主党人在早期投票中表现极其出色。然而也有可能，而且我们以前在2020年或2016年见过这种情况，那就是共和党人只是集中在选举日当天出来投票。在我们刚才讨论的大多数州，早期投票最先清点。民主党可能会看起来形势大好，但随后选举日的选票一进来，可能就会让他们失望。所以这是一种“蓝色海市蜃楼”（blue mirage）。在四十五分钟里，即使民主党实际上会输掉佛罗里达和南卡罗来纳，看到他们在那里领先也不要感到惊讶。
英文原文
>> whether they're dry, we are going to have a moment just before then when it looks like this election could be really, really blue. And the reason for that is the early vote. It is very clear that the Democrats have done exceptionally well in the early vote. It is also possible, however, and we've seen this happen before like in 2020 or 2016, that Republicans just show up to vote on election day. In most of the states we've been talking about, the early vote gets counted first. The Democrats could be looking really, really good. And then the election day vote could come in and leave them disappointed. So, this is a blue mirage. Don't be surprised for 45 minutes for Democrats to be leading in Florida and South Carolina even if they're actually going to lose.嗯。
英文原文
>> Mhm.所以我们至少得稍等片刻，看一眼选举日当天的选票，然后才能判断今晚的大致走势。
英文原文
>> So, we have to wait at least a little bit to see that election day vote before we can determine the direction that the night is heading.很有意思。内特，如果情景一成真，不可避免地意味着存在某种系统性的民调误差。而你是我们的首席内部民调专家。请帮我们理解一下，究竟在什么样的情况下，民调会出现如此巨大的偏差以至于出现情景一？
英文原文
>> Fascinating. Nate, if scenario one comes to pass, it will have inevitably meant that there was systemic polling error of some kind. And you're our chief in-house pollster. So, just help us understand a world where the polls are so off that you get scenario one.是的，必须把这一点讲清楚。在目前阶段，情景一绝对需要达到2016年或2020年规模的民调误差，迈克尔，甚至可能超出那个程度。我确实认为这是可以想象的。我们通常知道特朗普的支持者接受民调的意愿较低。民调机构试图采取措施对此进行调整，有的周期看似奏效，有的周期则不灵。我认为这里进一步增加民调误差可能性的另一个因素是，我们目前的焦点高度集中在深红色的州和选区。这对民调机构造成了风险：即便民调机构准确掌握了选民现在的想法，但在最后关头，共和党人依然有可能只是照常行事。
英文原文
>> Yeah, it's important to be clear about this. At this point, scenario one would absolutely require a polling error on the scale of 2016 or 2020, and maybe even beyond that, Michael. I do think that it is conceivable. We know in general that Trump's supporters are less likely to respond to polls. Pollsters try and do things to adjust for this, and some cycles it seems to work, and in some cycles it does not. The other factor here that I think raises the potential for a polling error even more is that we're really focused on heavily Republican states and districts. And this creates a risk to pollsters, where even if they're right about what voters are thinking now, there's this possibility that in the end Republicans just do what they usually do.出来投票。
英文原文
>> They come out and vote.出来投票，并且投给共和党。你看，我毫不怀疑今天有数百万共和党选民对特朗普总统深感不满，甚至不喜欢本州的共和党被提名人。他们正在向民调机构表达这种不满。但当他们真正走进投票间时，是否真的会像他们说的那样投给民主党，仍有待观察。如果他们没有这么做——我认为在今天这个极化的时代这毫不令人意外——你很快就会看到这些倾向共和党的选区迅速向右拉回。
英文原文
>> Come out and vote. And vote Republican. And look, I don't doubt that there are millions of Republican voters today who are deeply dissatisfied with President Trump and don't even like the Republican nominee in their state. And they are expressing that dissatisfaction to pollsters. But it remains to be seen when they show up in a voting booth whether they're really going to vote for a Democrat like they say. If they do not, which I think in today's polarized era just can't be too surprising, you would quickly see these Republican-leaning districts snap back to the right.嗯。
英文原文
>> Mhm.我认为这是本次选举中民调机构面临的最大风险。
英文原文
>> And I think that's the biggest risk to pollsters in this election.没错，这并不是说他们故意误导民调机构。在某种意义上，他们可能只是在短暂地自我误导，而一旦选举日到来，他们又回到了熟悉的共和党阵营——
英文原文
>> Right, it's not that they will have misled pollsters. In a certain sense, they may have misled themselves momentarily, and once election day rolls around, they come home to the familiar home of the Republican我认为这确实是一种可能。
英文原文
>> I think that's a real possibility.情景二：浪潮拍岸，参院悬念拖入加时
呵。好的，这就是情景一。在这种环境下对共和党极其有利，对民调机构则极其糟糕。我们再来谈谈第二种情景。
英文原文
>> Huh. Okay, that's scenario one. It's extremely good for Republicans in this environment. Extremely bad for pollsters. Let's talk about scenario two.第二种情景是共和党人没能保持干燥。他们浑身湿透。浪潮拍打到了高高的悬崖上。浪潮的大小完全如民调机构所说的那样。民主党赢下了众议院，而且大获全胜。但在唐纳德·特朗普以10个点或更多优势赢下的关键州，共和党人顶住了。在第一种情景中，像南卡罗来纳州参议院竞选这样的选战可能根本一点都不胶着。在那场竞选中，林赛·格雷厄姆（Lindsey Graham）的妹妹达琳·格雷厄姆（Darlene Graham）正在参选，在一个联邦选举中从来没有真正具备竞争力的州，这场竞选看起来出奇地接近。而在第二种情景中，选情确实很胶着。
英文原文
>> Scenario two is where the Republicans don't stay dry. They get really wet. The wave reaches them high up on the cliff. The wave is every bit as big as the pollsters said it would. The Democrats win the House and they win it big. But in the critical states where Donald Trump won by 10 points or more, the Republicans hold on. So, in the first scenario, a race like South Carolina Senate may not even be close at all. That's the race where Darlene Graham, Lindsey Graham's sister, is running in what seems to be a surprisingly close race in a state that is never really competitive in federal elections. In this one, it really is close.但在这种情景下，达琳·格雷厄姆获胜了。同样的故事也会在爱荷华、堪萨斯上演，可能还有俄亥俄，以及足够多的州，使得共和党最终保住对参议院的控制权。在这种情景下，在选举之夜我们将不得不等待更长时间，才能知道共和党保住了该院的控制权。因为很遗憾，大多数关键参议院所在州在选举之夜都不会很早关闭投票站。所以可能要到半夜前后，共和党占优的局势才会明朗。更糟糕的是，如果非常胶着，有两个州——缅因和阿拉斯加——在这种情景下我不敢确定我们几天内能否知道答案。这两个州计票都需要很长时间。缅因州大部分地区采用人工计票，在近期的选举中，到了周三中午仍有20%的选票尚未清点。阿拉斯加我认为有更好的理由，那就是它幅员辽阔，人口分散，通过邮寄选票投票。但他们需要一周时间来清点。似乎这些还不够，这两个州还有一个额外的复杂之处：它们都实行排序选择投票制（rank-choice voting）。因此，一旦清点了所有选票，如果没有人得票率达到50%——在这种情景下这是完全可能的——他们就必须进行排序选择轮次的计票。
英文原文
>> But in this scenario, Darling Grain wins. And the same story would play out in Iowa, and in Kansas, and maybe in Ohio, and enough states that the Republicans ultimately retain control of the Senate. In this scenario, we will have to wait much longer on election night before we understand that the Republicans have retained control of the chamber. Because unfortunately, most of the key Senate states do not close their polls early on election night. So, it might only become clear that the Republicans are favored by maybe midnight. And worse still, if it's really close, there are two states, Maine and Alaska, where I'm not sure we're going to know the answer for days in this scenario. Both states take a really long time to count their vote. Maine counts their vote in much of the state by hand, and in recent elections, 20% of the vote is still uncounted at noon on Wednesday. Alaska, I think has a better excuse, which is that it has this huge far-flung population that's voting by mail. But that takes them a week to count. And as if all this isn't enough, there's then a second wrinkle in both of these states. They both have rank-choice voting. So, once they've counted all the votes, then they have to do the rank-choice vote if no one reaches 50%, which in this scenario is quite possible.计票轮次。
英文原文
>> round of counting.是的。比如在阿拉斯加，我认为那是11月18日。所以，在这种情景下——
英文原文
>> Yeah. And so, like in Alaska, I think that's November 18th. So, in this scenario,真该让大家看看你现在脸上的痛苦表情。
英文原文
>> people to see the pain look on your face right now.你之前说选举之夜快乐，其实真该说胜负宣布日（race call day）快乐。因为在共和党勉强守住的情景下，要想确认他们在面临危险的每个关键州全部过关，需要非常漫长的时间。
英文原文
>> You said happy election night, you should really be saying happy race call day. Because in this scenario where the Republicans narrowly hang on, it would be a really long time before they had run the table in each of these critical states that they're in danger in.所以基本上，在第二种情景中，民主党非常接近赢得参议院，但在足够多的红州里，运气并没有偏向他们。在这些看起来竞争激烈的参议院角逐中，过多的共和党候选人获胜，归根结底，他们保住了对参议院的控制。
英文原文
>> So, basically, in scenario number two, Democrats get very close to winning the Senate, but the cards just don't break their way in enough of these red states. Too many Republican candidates win these seemingly competitive Senate contests, and at the end of the day, they keep control of the Senate.没错。而且我想指出，按照历史标准来衡量，情景二对民主党来说仍然可能是一个非同寻常的夜晚。这可能是该党几十年来在红州取得的最佳表现。比如我认为在这种情景下民主党有可能赢下得克萨斯，或者可能是堪萨斯。按历史标准看，其中任何一个都会让人印象极其深刻。但这一情景的关键在于，他们加起来就是凑不够51个席位，而这才是最终决定他们是否会对最终结果感到兴奋的关键所在。
英文原文
>> That's right. And I want to note, scenario two by historical measures could still be an extraordinary night for Democrats. It could be the best performance that the party has had in red states in decades. Like I think it's conceivable Democrats could win Texas in the scenario, or maybe it's Kansas. And any of them by historic standards would really be impressive. But the critical thing about the scenario is it just doesn't add up to 51 seats for them, which is what's ultimately going to determine whether they're thrilled by the ultimate outcome or not.归根结底，考虑到外界的预期，我怀疑民主党人会深感失望。无论如何，这都会是一个极为漫长的夜晚。那么内特，我们继续看第三种情景。
英文原文
>> And ultimately, given the expectations, I suspect Democrats would be deeply disappointed. And regardless, it would be an incredibly late night. So let's, Nate, move on to the third scenario.情景三：沙袋失效，民主党险夺参院
在很多方面，情景三和情景二非常相似。浪潮基本上一样大，共和党人也浑身湿透，但在情景三中，共和党的防汛沙袋失效了。浪潮吞没了他们，在这些关键的参议院竞选中，民主党确实翻转了掌控参议院所需的席位。
英文原文
>> In a lot of ways, scenario three is a lot like scenario two. The wave is basically as big, the Republicans are all wet, but in scenario three, the Republican sandbags fail. The wave swamps them, and in these critical Senate races, the Democrats do flip the seats they need to take control of the Senate.好的，所以三和二的关键区别在于民主党确实拿下了参议院，但是赢了多少？
英文原文
>> Okay, so key difference between three and two is that the Democrats do take the Senate, but by how much?对我来说，情景三的独特之处在于这些州都非常胶着，情景三和情景二的区别可能仅仅在于阿拉斯加和俄亥俄等地数万张选票的差距。在一种情景下倒向这一边，在另一种情景下倒向民主党。我认为民主党在这种情景下的最佳情况可能是参议院拿到约53个席位，甚至可能是54个，尽管我认为那需要相当好的运气。但也可能少到只有51个席位。他们可能只是勉强拿到控制该院所需的最低限度席位。只要做到这一点，我认为民主党人最终都会对这个夜晚感到兴高采烈，哪怕与拉高了更高预期的民调相比略有逊色。
英文原文
>> To me, what's unique about scenario three is that these states are all really close, and the difference between scenario three and scenario two could be tens of thousands of votes in Alaska and in Ohio and so on. And in one, they break one way, and the other, they break toward the Democrats. I think that the best case for Democrats in this scenario might be something like 53 seats in the Senate, maybe even 54, though I think that would be pretty lucky. But it could be as little as 51. They could just barely scratch by with the bare minimum necessary to take the chamber. As long as they do that, I think the Democrats will ultimately feel elated by the night, even if it is a disappointment compared to, you know, polls that have raised the even higher expectations than that.出现情景三而非情景二的迹象会是什么？因为正如你所说，两者的浪潮规模可能感觉差别不大。那么我们什么时候能看出两者的区别？
英文原文
>> What will be the indication that a scenario three is unfolding versus a scenario two? Because, as you say, the waves may not feel all that different in scale. So when would we know the difference?我认为实际上有两条路径能让我们感受到这种区别。其中一条路径是民主党在选举之夜赢下了足够多的计票足够快的州——得克萨斯、俄亥俄、爱荷华、堪萨斯。如果民主党拿下这些州，我们可能在选举之夜就能得出定论。可能是在选举之夜的很晚时候，但我们就会知道民主党拿下了众议院和参议院。还有参议院。
英文原文
>> I think that there are really two paths for how we could feel the difference. One of them is where Democrats win on election night in enough of these states that do count their votes quickly enough. Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas. If the Democrats are winning those states, we could have a decision on election night. It may be late on election night, but we'll know that the Democrats have taken the House and the Senate. And the Senate.没错。如果民主党要靠缅因或阿拉斯加来定胜负，我们依然得苦苦等待。
英文原文
>> Right. If the Democrats depend on Maine or Alaska to do it, we're still stuck waiting.所以，纯粹从自私的角度出发，但愿我们能尽快看到定论。
英文原文
>> So, [music] from a purely selfish point of view, let's hope we have resolution quickly.要发生就快点发生吧。
英文原文
>> going to happen, let it happen fast.确实是这样。
英文原文
>> Let's exactly.好的。我们稍作休息，回来后再来看第四种、也是最后一种，我认为也是周二晚上最具戏剧性的政治情景。
英文原文
>> Okay. Let's take a quick break, and when we come back, come to the fourth, final, and I believe the most dramatic political scenario.没错。
英文原文
>> That's right.周二之夜的情景。
英文原文
>> Of Tuesday night.那将是我们在美国政治中很久未见的事情。
英文原文
>> It would be something that we haven't seen in American politics in a long time.好的，我们马上回来。内特，讲讲周二晚上的第四种情景吧。
英文原文
>> Okay. We'll [music] be right back. Nate, the fourth scenario for Tuesday night.情景四：政治海啸与历史级横扫
第四种情景是海啸。救生衣和沙袋根本派不上用场。你站在悬崖上，浪头远高过你的头顶。如果你是共和党人，他们将被彻底淹没。让我描述一下在这种情景下共和党可能遭受的破坏程度。在众议院，民主党可能在普选票上以两位数优势胜出，或许能斩获250个席位。在参议院，共和党不仅仅是在少数几个关键州的胶着战役中失利。民主党拿下参议院可能还有富余席位。在密歇根这样的地方——民主党推出的埃尔-萨耶德医生在另一场选举中可能本会落败——也许他能轻松取得我们周末民调显示的那种两位数大胜。也许民主党拿下得克萨斯，而且不只是小赢，而是大胜。詹姆斯·泰勒-福斯特（James Taylor-Foster）以5个百分点或更多胜出，拉美裔选民向左倾斜超过40个百分点。也许民主党赢下堪萨斯——一个自1932年以来就未曾支持过民主党人的参议员席位所在的州。同样不只是小赢，而是领先5个点或更多。可能还有整整另一梯队的州——我们之前并未真正视为顶级战场的州，比如我多次提到的南卡罗来纳，另外还可以加上佛罗里达，或者可能是密西西比。民主党正在那里投入资金。也许那些州最终会成为选举之夜竞争最胶着的州。那些我们甚至没有真正视为顶级争夺的州。
英文原文
>> The fourth scenario is the tsunami. It's where the life jackets and the sandbags never really had a chance. You're on the cliff, and the wave is way over your head. If you're a Republican, they are inundated. Let me describe what the extent of the damage Republicans could look like in this sort of scenario. In the House, the Democrats could win the popular vote by double digits and claim 250 seats, maybe. In the Senate, the Republicans wouldn't merely lose in some close battles in a few critical states. The Democrats might win the Senate with room to spare. In a place like Michigan, where the Democrats have a candidate in Dr. El Sayed that maybe could have lost in a different election, like maybe he cruises to a that big double-digit win that our poll showed this weekend. Maybe Democrats win Texas, and they don't just win Texas by a little bit, but they win it big. James Taylor-Foster wins by five points or more with Hispanic voters surging 40-plus points toward the left. Maybe the Democrats win Kansas, a Senate state that hasn't voted Democratic since 1932. Again, not just by a little bit, but by five points or more. And maybe a whole extra tier of state that we haven't really considered top-tier battleground, like South Carolina, which I've alluded to a few times, but also add to that Florida or Mississippi, maybe. The Democrats are spending money there. And maybe those are the states that wind up being the closest on election night. States that we haven't even really considered to be top-tier contests.嗯。
英文原文
>> Mhm.纵观全局，这是一场代际性的胜利。这是几十年来任何一个政党取得的最大胜利。在这种情景下，民主党在深红地带赢得的参议院席位，将超过2008年和2006年两次选举的总和，甚至更多。我认为你可能得追溯到1974年水门事件后的那次选举，才能找到感觉如此重大的时刻。
英文原文
>> Stepping back, this is a generational victory. This is the largest victory for either party in decades. The Democrats would win more Senate seats in heavily Republican territory in this scenario than both 2008 and 2006 combined and then more. I think you'd have to go back maybe to 1974, the election right after Watergate, to come up with something that felt this big.民主党的又一次重大胜利。
英文原文
>> Another major victory for Democrats.民主党的胜利。我们确实很长时间没有见过这样的选举了。
英文原文
>> victory for Democrats. We just haven't seen an election like this in a very long time.民调方法论、提前投票与深层变数
情景四。那么，鉴于我们所做的民调和我们所处的政治环境，在现阶段这几种情景中哪一种看起来最有可能、最合情理？
英文原文
>> Scenario four. Well, at this point, which of these scenarios seems most likely, most plausible, given the polling we've done, given the political environment we're in?在如今这个两极分化的时代，我很难轻易断言情景四很有可能发生，毕竟共和党人要避免情景四，所需要做的仅仅是出来把票投给共和党。但我必须对你坦诚相告。那就是，如果说民调说明了什么，那就是民调显示情景四是其中最有可能出现的结果。根据民调，也许情景3.7才是最可能出现的结果。举例来说，对于我纳入情景四中的一个案例，民调并没有显示共和党会在南卡罗来纳落败。但它们确实显示民主党拿下了所有这些关键的参议院州，正如我在节目开篇所说的那样。民调还显示他们在这些红州有时拥有富余优势，比如得克萨斯。最终民调显示詹姆斯·塔拉里科以相当充裕的优势领先，不仅是我们的民调，其他民调也是如此。堪萨斯也是同样的情况。而且我想指出，不仅是民调如此显示，两党的行为也反映了这一点。
英文原文
>> I will find it hard to ever say scenario four is likely in this polarized era, and when all Republicans need to do to avert scenario four is show up and vote Republican. But I do have to be honest with you. And that's that the polls, if anything, say that scenario four is the single likeliest outcome here. Maybe scenario 3.7 is the likeliest outcome based in the polls. The polls don't show Republicans losing in South Carolina, for instance, to take a case that I had in scenario four. But they do show Democrats winning all of these critical Senate states, as I mentioned at the beginning of the episode. They also show them winning in these red states with room to spare sometimes, like Texas. The final polls show James Talarico ahead by a comfortable margin, not just our polls, but other polls. Same story in Kansas. And I I want to note that it's not just the polls that say this. It's the behavior of both parties.嗯。
英文原文
>> Mhm.我们前面已经谈过民主党如何在密西西比和南卡罗来纳等地投入资金。共和党人在本选举周期中已经在得克萨斯花费了数亿美元。这可不是因为他们觉得得州还像过去那样稳固。唐纳德·特朗普在过去几周里去了三次南卡罗来纳。
英文原文
>> We've already talked about how Democrats are spending in places like Mississippi and South Carolina. The Republicans have spent hundreds of millions of dollars in Texas this cycle. It's not because they think it's the state it's been in the past. Donald Trump has been to South Carolina three times in the last few weeks.而且不仅仅是因为他喜欢——
英文原文
>> And not just because he likes不仅仅是因为他喜欢查尔斯顿，而是因为他们在那里似乎陷入了真正严重的麻烦。现在，也许这些努力会起作用。也许数亿美元的资金加上唐纳德·特朗普在最后冲刺阶段奔赴合适的地方，能让足够多的共和党人回归基本盘，从而避免这种局面的发生，但目前的民调显示的根本不是这样。即便民调也有可能像以往那样出错。
英文原文
>> And not just because he loves Charleston, but because they appear to be in really serious trouble here. Now, maybe those efforts are going to work. Maybe hundreds of millions of dollars and Donald Trump going to the right place during the final stretch gets enough of those Republicans back on board to avert this, but that is just not what the polling says today. Even if it is conceivable that the polls will be wrong as they have been before.嗯。听你的意思，虽然你不想直接说情景四是最可能的，但你刚才几乎就等于是说它最可能发生了。基本上，你是说这第四种情景似乎就明摆在我们眼前。
英文原文
>> Mhm. I'm hearing you say that even though you don't want to say scenario four is the likeliest, you kind of just did say that it's the likeliest. Basically, you're saying that this fourth scenario would seem to be staring us in the face.这个说法非常贴切，迈克尔。如果我们站在这些特朗普赢了10个点的州里的共和党人身旁，我们正注视着的这股巨浪现在看起来大到足以将我们冲走。如果你以前去过海滩，你就会见过海浪会以不可预测的方式破裂，你认为最大的那一波浪可能会提前溃散，等等。所以，关于一旦这股浪潮拍打在我们所说的共和党悬崖上究竟会是什么样子，我们无法做出完美的预测。但目前看起来就是这样。
英文原文
>> That's a great way to put it, Michael. If we were standing beside these Republicans in these Trump plus 10 states, this wave that we are staring at looks big enough to wipe us away right now. Now, if you've been on the beach before, you've seen that the waves crash in unpredictable ways, and the wave that you think is going to be the biggest breaks early, and so on. So, we can't make a perfect prediction about what it's going to look like once this wave breaks on this Republican cliff of ours. But, that's what it looks like.谈到对话的这个节点，我觉得有必要重新回到民调误差的问题上。我们前面提到过，但没有深入探讨细节。
英文原文
>> This is the point in the conversation where I feel it's incumbent to return to the question of polling error. We mentioned it earlier, but we didn't really talk about it with much granularity.是的。
英文原文
>> Yeah.当我们讨论这股浪潮在我们看来有多大时，我们几乎完全是基于民调得出的。我们来谈谈为什么我们不认为——或者说你们采取了哪些措施来防范这种风险：即长期存在的共和党人不太愿意接听民调机构电话、而民主党人更渴望与民调机构交谈的趋势——为什么这种趋势没有左右我们得出的这一结论？
英文原文
>> And as we talk about how big a wave might look to us, we're basing that almost entirely on polling. Let's talk about why we don't think, or the steps you have taken to mitigate against the risk that this long-standing trend of Republicans being less likely to answer the phone for pollsters, Democrats more eager to talk to pollsters, why that isn't influencing this understanding that we've arrived at.基本上，每家民调机构为了恰当代表特朗普支持者，在调整样本方面所做的努力都远超2020年或2016年。具体而言，他们只是单纯给参与民调的特朗普支持者赋予更大的权重。举个平分秋色的州为例，比如宾夕法尼亚州。如果我对宾夕法尼亚做民调，特朗普选民占样本的40%，而我们知道他们占了选票的50%，现在的典型民调机构会直接把他们调整为50%的比重。
英文原文
>> So, essentially, every pollster is going much farther to try and adjust their samples to properly represent Trump supporters than they did in 2020 or 2016. They, in particular, simply just give more weight to the Trump supporters who take their polls. So, let's take an evenly divided state like Pennsylvania. If I take a poll of Pennsylvania and Trump voters are 40% of the sample and we know they were 50% of the vote, the typical pollster will make them 50% of the vote right now.明白了。
英文原文
>> Got it.这种方法比较强硬。我还要指出，如果投票率对民主党非常有利，你至少可以想象在某种情景下这可能构成过度矫正。
英文原文
>> It's a heavy-handed approach. I will also note that if the turnout is very blue for Democrats, you can at least talk yourself into a scenario where that's an overcorrection potentially.嗯。
英文原文
>> Mhm.所以它不是万灵丹，但这确实是一个让人认为风险可能低于以往的理由。不过我也该说，仅仅因为民调机构比以往做得更多，并不意味着民调机构面临的根本问题没有恶化。
英文原文
>> So, it's not a panacea, but it is a reason to think that the risks could be lower than before. Though I should just because the pollsters are doing more than before doesn't mean that the underlying problems facing pollsters didn't get worse.那么，你们在《纽约时报》具体采取了哪些措施，从而对接触到足够的共和党人、足够的特朗普支持者、以及足够多最终可能在周二出来投票并基本抹平民主党部分优势的人群感到心里踏实？
英文原文
>> Well, what specific steps have you all taken here at the times to feel good about reaching enough Republicans, enough Trump supporters, enough of the people who might ultimately show up on Tuesday and essentially wipe out some of these Democratic advantages?你刚才用了“心里踏实”（feel comfortable）这个词吗？
英文原文
>> Did you use this word feel comfortable right there?嗯。
英文原文
>> Mhm.首先我必须重申，尽管我们采取了一些我马上会逐一说明的措施，但没有人能告诉你他们能未卜先知大选前的民调是否会准确。不过回答你的问题，有几点是我们有别于其他民调机构的做法，在某些情况下也不同于我们过去的手段。首先，我们竭尽全力确保接触到尽可能多的特朗普选民，包括确保在任何给定的州接触到相应数量的登记共和党人。
英文原文
>> So, at first I just have to reiterate like although we've taken steps that I'll work through in a second. There's No one can tell you that they know whether the polls are going to be right heading into an election. But to answer your question, there are a couple of things that we do differently both from other pollsters and in some cases than what we've done in the past. First is that we do everything we can to make sure we reach as many Trump voters as possible including by ensuring that in any given state we reach the correct number of registered Republicans.嗯。
英文原文
>> Mhm.这是其他民调机构所不作保证的。这同样不能保证我们的民调一定准确，但我认为尽可能多地拥有这些选民是有益的，这样你才能尽最大努力确保样本具有代表性。
英文原文
>> This is a guarantee that other pollsters don't make. It doesn't guarantee that our polls are right either, but I think it's helpful to have as many of these voters as possible so you can do the best job you can at trying to make sure that the sample is representative.嗯。
英文原文
>> Mhm.第二点是，我们确实非常努力、并以我认为非常独特的方式，努力确保我们抽样到了正确类型的特朗普支持者。这是本次选举中有所不同的地方，但基本上对于每位受访者，我们都会尝试推测他们投票给唐纳德·特朗普的可能性有多大。基于这一点，我们试图区分出不同类型的选民：是那种可能把票投给了妮基·黑利（Nikki Haley）、可能住在受过大学教育的社区、可能拥有专业学位、可能有医生执照的共和党人，抑或相反，他们是一位特朗普捐款人——这将是他们属于特朗普支持者的极佳信号。
英文原文
>> The second thing is we really do try pretty hard and in ways that I think are pretty unique to try and make sure we have the right kind of Trump supporter. This is something that's different in this election, but basically for every respondent we try and guess how likely they were to vote for Donald Trump. And so with that in mind, we try and distinguish between the kind of Republican who maybe did vote for Nikki Haley, maybe they live in a college-educated neighborhood, maybe they have a professional degree, maybe they have a doctor license, or conversely maybe they're a Trump donor, which would be a pretty good sign they're a Trump supporter.我们利用这些数据，努力确保我们不仅拥有正确数量的共和党人或正确数量的特朗普选民，而且在力所能及的范围内涵盖了正确类型的选民。明白了。所以再次强调，所有这些都不能保证任何事情，但这些是我们所做的努力，希望能给我们带来更好的几率。而且我要指出，我们的最终民调尽管已经显得偏蓝，但如果按照我们在2024年和2022年使用的调查方法论，它本会比现在再偏蓝3个点。再偏蓝3个点。而我们在2024年和2022年的民调并没有那么糟糕。相当准确。它们相当准确。即使存在当时那样的偏差，其准确度也足以让民主党在拿下参议院时绰绰有余。
英文原文
>> And we use that data to try and make sure that we don't merely have the right number of Republicans or the right number of Trump voters, but the right kind of the extent that we can. Got it. So, again, none of this is a guarantee of anything, but these are the kind of things that we've done that we hope give us a better chance. And I'll note that our final polls, as blue as they were, would have been three points bluer. Three points bluer than on the survey methodology we used in 2024 and 2022. And our polls weren't that bad in 2024 and 2022. They were pretty accurate. They were pretty accurate. More than accurate enough for the Democrats to take the Senate with room to spare if they were off in the same way they were that time.你的意思是说，从这个意义上讲，即使在这些对民主党极佳的结果中，你们也可能存在高估共和党权重、低估民主党权重的情况？
英文原文
>> Are you suggesting that you could be in that sense over waiting Republicans and under waiting Democrats even in these results that are extremely good for Democrats?我认为“可能”是这里的关键词。正如我提到的，我们确实无法确知。我知道这令人沮丧，但在过去的选举中，既出现过民调低估民主党的情况，在特朗普时代也同样出现过高估他们的情况。在这种海啸情景下，是的，我认为人们事后会回顾并说：民调机构为了尝试接触更多特朗普支持者所采取的步骤，至少在本次特定选举中走得太远了。为了竭尽全力获取尽可能多的特朗普支持者，实际上忽略了他们中的许多人本次选举根本就没有出来投票。
英文原文
>> I I think that could is the important word here. As I mentioned, we really don't know. I know that's frustrating, but there have been elections again where the polls underestimate Democrats, and there have been elections where they overestimate them even in the Trump era. And in this tsunami scenario, yeah, I think people would look back and say, you know, the steps that the pollsters were doing to try and reach more Trump supporters, at least in this particular election, went too far. That in every effort to get as many Trump supporters as you can, you actually missed that a lot of them just weren't voting in this election.我想听我们讨论民调、潜在民调误差以及我们为避免误差所采取步骤的听众会感到好奇：目前的实际早期投票已经向我们透露了什么，它在多大程度上支持或不支持我们在此对第三或第四种情景所赋予的侧重？
英文原文
>> I think people hearing us talk about polling, potential polling error, steps we're taking to avoid it, will be curious what the actual early vote already is telling us and how much that may be supporting or not the emphasis we're placing on something like the third or fourth scenario here.早期投票看起来非常偏蓝，迈克尔。正如我前面提到的，你应该做好心理准备，在晚上7点那个小时，在佛罗里达和南卡罗来纳这些最终预计会落败的州，民主党可能会处于领先。但是，如果共和党人没有在选举日以海量的人数出来投票以抵消这一优势，那么这些州可能就不再倾向于共和党了。
英文原文
>> The early vote looks really blue, Michael. You should be prepared, as I mentioned earlier, for the Democrats to be leading in states like Florida and South Carolina in the 7:00 p.m. hour even where they're ultimately expected to lose. But if the Republicans don't vote on election day in enormous numbers to counter that, then those states may not be leaning Republican.那可能就不是蓝色海市蜃楼了。
英文原文
>> It may not be a blue mirage.那可能就不是蓝色海市蜃楼了。那实际上可能是真正大浪初现的端倪。或者以得克萨斯为例。得州已有三分之二的选票完成投递。这是一个很大的比例。而在我们的数据中，它看起来非常倾向民主党。不仅年轻群体、拉美裔和以往不投票的人群在得克萨斯大量出来投票，而且至少在我们的数据中，选择出来投票的人从系统性上看更有可能是民主党或詹姆斯·塔拉里科的支持者。所以这一切在选举日并不能证明任何事情。共和党人可以反击，而且他们以前确实反击过，在2020年他们就做到了。
英文原文
>> It may not be a blue mirage. It may actually be the first sight of that real wave. Or take Texas. 2/3 of the vote has already been cast in Texas. It's a big proportion. And in our data, it looks really democratic. Not only are young, Latino, and non-voters showing up in significant numbers in Texas, but at least in our data, the people who are choosing to show up are just systematically likelier to be democratic or James Tallarico supporters. So, none of this proves anything on election day. Republicans can counter, and they have before. In 2020, they did.但至少到目前为止，就民主党所获得的投票率而言，我认为他们已经无法苛求更多了。
英文原文
>> But, at least to this point, I don't think the Democrats could have asked for too much more in terms of the turnout they have.嗯。显然，情景一和情景二对民主党人来说将是巨大的失望，但在某种程度上，这将是向常态的回归。
英文原文
>> Mhm. Obviously, scenarios one and two would be a huge disappointment to Democrats, but it would to some degree be a reversion to the norm.这将是一个典型的中期选举年：在野党表现出色，但整体看起来依然很像我们熟悉的极化国家。
英文原文
>> It would be a typical It would be a typical midterm year where the party out of power does well. But, it still looks a lot like our usual polarized country.没错。而情景三和情景四，特别是情景四，感觉就打破常理了。
英文原文
>> Right. Three and four, four especially, those don't feel familiar.确实不寻常。那是我们很久没有见过的景象。距上一次有政党赢下在上届总统选举中以两位数优势投给对方的席位——哪怕仅仅是一个席位——已经过去了16年。在我们的民调中，民主党在五个这样的州处于领先。没错。所以——
英文原文
>> They don't. They're something that we haven't seen in a long time. It's been 16 years since a party won even one seat that voted for the other side by double digits in the prior presidential election. In our polls, Democrats are leading in five. Right. So,这颠覆了我们对我们这个极化——
英文原文
>> It defies our understanding of our polarized没错。在这个——
英文原文
>> That's right. In this时代的理解。
英文原文
>> era.值得再次回到决定这次选举的选民身上，他们并不是通常决定我们选举结果的那些选民。要想让民主党取得民调所说的那种夜晚，倾向共和党的选民必须做出决定：要么海量弃投呆在家里，要么有足够数量的人决定投给民主党。在像堪萨斯、得克萨斯、爱荷华等州，很多情况下他们可能以前从未在联邦公职选举中投给过民主党人。在我们这个极化的时代，这确实是一件很难想象的事情。
英文原文
>> And it's worth again coming back to the voters who will decide this election, and they're not the voters who usually decide our elections. For the Democrats to have the kind of night the polls say they will, Republican-leaning voters have to decide either to stay home in enormous numbers or decide to vote for Democrats in sufficient numbers. In states like Kansas and Texas, Iowa, and so on, where in many cases they may never have voted for a Democrat for federal office before. In our polarized era, this is a tough thing to really imagine.是的。
英文原文
>> Yeah.民主党压倒性大胜或发生政治海啸（继续沿用我们的海浪比喻）的后果将非常重大。就在总统初选竞选刚开始之际，这将是对特朗普总统任期的一次断然否定。
英文原文
>> The consequences of a Democratic landslide or tsunami, to keep our wave metaphor going, would be really significant. It would be a repudiation of the Trump presidency right at the beginning of a presidential primary campaign.嗯。
英文原文
>> Mhm.这可能让民主党掌控他们很久未曾想过能控制的州政府。我们回头看时可能会说，这某种程度上是特朗普时代的一个转折点。
英文原文
>> It could give Democrats control of state governments that they haven't thought of controlling in a long time. We may look back and say that it was sort of a turning point in the Trump era.走向终结的开端。
英文原文
>> The beginning of the end.这很有可能成为一个分水岭时刻：特朗普对美国政治的影响力开始衰退，并且事实证明他走得太远了，打破了太多的承诺，以至于无法再维系曾将他和他的民粹主义政治推上权力的联盟。
英文原文
>> This could potentially be clearly the moment when Trump's influence on American politics began to wane and it was clear that he had gone too far and had broken too many promises for him to be able to preserve the coalition that had brought him and his populist politics to power.开票夜展望与结语
好吧，我想我们就先聊到这里。我确实想让听众稍微了解一下你接下来要做什么。
英文原文
>> All right, I think we're going to leave it there. I do want to give listeners a little bit of a sense of what comes next for you.[音乐]
英文原文
>> [music]你要走出这间录音室，走进那些装满屏幕的房间，里面堆满了汽水和糖果，供你和你的同事在清点选票时补充体力，并把选票数据输入到我们在整个选举夜生成的这些模型和预测指针中，这些工作将在接下来的二十几个小时里吞噬你，直到你在——我希望是凌晨2点、2点半或3点——回到我们这里。
英文原文
>> You're going to walk out of here. You're going to head into these screen-filled rooms that are loaded with soda and candy to sustain you and your colleagues as you count the votes and you feed them into these models and these prediction needles that we produce throughout election night and that will consume you for the next 20-something [music] hours until you return to us at I hope 2:00 2:30 3:00 a.m.过去一直都是这样。
英文原文
>> That's what it's been in the past.周三清晨来录制我们的下一期节目，因为这是一系列节目的第一期。
英文原文
>> Wednesday morning to record our next [music] episode cuz this is the first of a series.[笑声]
英文原文
>> [laughter]我不知道你是怎么熬过来的，非常感谢你能来做这件事。
英文原文
>> And I don't know how you do it and I'm extremely grateful to you for doing it.谢谢邀请我，迈克尔。
英文原文
>> Thanks for having me, Michael.[音乐]
英文原文
>> [music]在限定时间内，《纽约时报》将免费开放其应用内的所有选举报道。在那里，你将找到深入的分析、民调追踪以及整个中期选举期间（包括选举日当天）的实时动态。此外，如果是你首次下载《纽约时报》应用，你可以免费访问我们所有的深度新闻报道30天。欢迎一试。
英文原文
>> For a limited time, The New York Times is making all of our election coverage free in The New York Times app. There, you'll find in-depth analysis, poll trackers, and live updates [music] throughout the midterms including on election day. Plus, if it's your first time downloading the NYT app, you can access all of our journalism free for 30 days. So, give it a try.[音乐]
英文原文
>> [music]我们马上回来。以下是你今天还需要了解的其他新闻。
英文原文
>> We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. [music]如大家所知，这是中期选举前的最后一天，我认为这是我们一生中最重要的中期选举。
英文原文
>> As you know, this is the last day before the midterm elections, the most important midterm I believe in our lifetime.在全美竞选活动的最后一个完整日子里，特朗普总统在林肯纪念堂倒影池前发表演讲，试图凝聚共和党人，他在演讲中谴责今年的民主党候选人极端。
英文原文
>> On the final full day of campaigning across [music] the US. President Trump tried to rally Republicans with a speech in front of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, where he denounced this year's Democratic candidates [music] as extreme.民主党提名了美国历史上最极端、最危险的候选人阵容。这些是历来推选出的最危险的候选人。
英文原文
>> And the Democrat Party has nominated the most extreme and dangerous slate of candidates in American history. These are the most dangerous candidates ever put up.但许多民主党候选人提醒选民，在他们看来，周二的选举是对特朗普的一场公投。在密歇根州，民主党参议员候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-萨耶德嘲笑了特朗普一再试图将他描绘成激进分子的举动。
英文原文
>> But many of those Democratic candidates [music] reminded voters that Tuesday's election was, in their telling, a referendum on Trump. In Michigan, [music] the Democratic candidate for Senate, Abdul El-Sayed, mocked Trump for his repeated efforts to portray [music] him as a radical.就特朗普而言，他似乎搞不清我的真名究竟叫什么。平心而论，阿卜杜勒。他每次念出来都带着喘粗气的声音：穆罕默德。总有一天我会教他怎么正确念我的名字，但在明天之后，他管我叫参议员就行了。
英文原文
>> For his part, Donald Trump can't seem to figure out what my actual name is. To be fair, Abdul. He always says it with a rasp. Muhammad. At some point, I'm going to teach him how to say my name properly, but after tomorrow, he can just call me Senator.与此同时，《纽约时报》报道称，已有约5000万美国人投出了选票，这种提前投票的激增在每一个主要的参议院关键战场都超过了上一届中期选举周期。今天上午6点起，投票站将开放供选民在选举日亲自前往投票。
英文原文
>> Meanwhile, the Times reports [music] that about 50 million Americans have already cast ballots, a surge of early voting that is outpacing [music] the last midterm cycle in every major Senate battleground. Polls will open this [music] morning for in-person election day voting starting at 6:00 a.m.本期节目由奥斯塔·查鲁维迪（Austa Charurvedi）、里基·诺维茨基（Ricky Newvetsky）和凯特琳·奥基夫（Caitlin O'Keefe）制作，戴安娜·温（Diana Winn）、莱克西·迪奥（Lexi Diao）、卡洛斯·普列托（Carlos Prieto）、安娜·弗利（Anna Foley）、奥利维亚·纳特（Olivia Natt）和埃里克·克鲁普克（Eric Krupke）提供协助。由雷切尔·奎斯特（Rachel Quester）和利兹·奥班农（Liz O'Bannon）编辑。包含丹·鲍威尔（Dan Powell）和玛丽安·洛萨诺（Marion Lozano）的音乐，并由艾莉莎·莫克斯利（Alyssa Moxley）完成音效工程。我们的主题音乐由Wonderly创作。特别鸣谢迈克尔·克鲁斯（Michael Cruise）、玛雅·金（Maya King）、贝利斯·瓦格纳（Bayless Wagner）、瑞安·帕特里克·胡珀（Ryan Patrick Hooper）、帕特里克·库利（Patrick Cooley）、凯文·威廉姆斯（Kevin Williams）、埃拉娜·埃罗格（Elana Eroge）、克里斯汀·巴伊拉克达里安（Kristen Bayrakdarian）、伊莎尼·德赛（Ishani Desai），最后还要感谢埃莉诺·麦金内尔·科恩（Eleanor McKinnell Coe）——内特的女儿——把她的父亲借给我们。
英文原文
>> Today's episode was produced [music] by Austa Charurvedi, Ricky Newvetsky, and Caitlin O'Keefe with help from Diana Winn, Lexi Diao, [music] Carlos Prieto, Anna Foley, Olivia Natt, and Eric Krupke. It was edited by Rachel Quester [music] and Liz O'Bannon. Contains music by Dan Powell and Marion Lozano and was engineered by Alyssa Moxley. Our theme music [music] is by Wonderly. Special thanks to Michael Cruise, Maya King, Bayless Wagner, Ryan Patrick [music] Hooper, Patrick Cooley, Kevin Williams, Elana Eroge, [music] Kristen Bayrakdarian, Ishani Desai, and finally to Eleanor [music] McKinnell Coe, Nate's daughter, for lending us her father.以上就是今天的《The Daily》。我是迈克尔·巴巴罗。明天中期选举结果揭晓时再见。