地缘政治、经济制裁与消费新趋势:伊核困境、美国政坛动态及订阅经济的兴衰 New York Times Podcasts 2026-05-12

伊朗经济困境:互联网封锁、制裁压力与民生凋敝

节目开场,Tracy Mumford 介绍了《纽约时报》的今日头条,并引出了一个关键议题:伊朗的现状。在过去的一个月里,许多伊朗人的声音传达出一种普遍的失落感。那些曾经支持美国或以色列采取军事行动以推翻伊朗政府的人们,如今却因近几个月来的局势发展而感到沮丧。他们普遍认为,军事行动非但未能改善局面,反而使伊朗国内的处境变得更加糟糕。

《纽约时报》的同事 Yagen Torbati 持续与伊朗国内民众沟通,试图了解当地生活的真实情况。她通过短信和语音备忘录,在民众短暂的网络连接间隙中,捕捉到了地面上的声音。反对该政权的人们表示,自战争开始以来,政府不仅变得更加强硬和根深蒂固,而且民众的日常生活条件也在持续恶化。国内出现了失业潮和裁员,这直接源于战争造成的破坏,以及政府为应对战争而采取的互联网封锁措施。对许多伊朗人而言,互联网是他们赖以谋生的命脉。他们在Instagram(一款社交媒体平台)上销售商品、发布广告。曾几何时,伊朗拥有一个蓬勃发展的科技产业,但如今,因互联网的持续中断,该行业已遭受重创,导致大量裁员。

食品价格更是“飞涨”,民众特别提到了鸡肉食用油的价格飙升。一些受访者甚至表达了如果无法负担家庭开销,将不得不诉诸盗窃的可能性,并表示听闻身边也有人会这样做。听到这些令人不寒而栗的描述,让人难以想象,在如此巨大的压力下,伊朗可能会出现怎样的混乱和动荡。事实上,伊朗经济在战争爆发前已步履维艰,这也是今年早些时候引发大规模抗议活动的原因之一,而这些抗议最终被当局以血腥手段镇压。如今,日益加剧的经济压力被视为美国旨在迫使伊朗屈服的策略的一部分。特朗普总统在最近被问及伊朗经济问题时,公开表示:“我希望它(伊朗经济)垮掉。你们知道为什么吗?因为我想赢。”与此同时,伊朗官员坚称,这种外部压力不会奏效。

Original English

From the New York Times, it's the headlines. I'm Tracy Mumford. Today's Tuesday, May 12th. Here's what we're covering.

I've been hearing from a lot of Iranians over the past month or so and I think for those who at one point supported some kind of military action whether by the US or by Israel because they opposed the government and wanted to see the government fall there's been a lot of dispondency at sort of what the last couple months have brought to Iran. They have come to the conclusion that military action has only kind of made their situation worse inside Iran. My colleague Yagen Torbati has been speaking with Iranians about what life is like on the ground there now. She's been able to reach people through text messages and voice memos in the brief windows when they can get an internet connection. She says people who oppose the regime say the government has only become more hardline and more entrenched since the war began and the conditions in their everyday lives are deteriorating. Job losses have started in the country, layoffs that are a direct result of both the damages of war and also the way the government has responded to war by shutting down the internet. A lot of Iranians depend on the internet for their livelihoods. They sell things on Instagram. They advertise on Instagram. You know, Iran once upon a time had a really flourishing tech sector. That sector has been brought to its knees by this internet shutdown and that is all resulting in layoffs. Food prices are through the roof. People brought up the price of chicken, of cooking oil. A couple people we spoke with raised the possibility that if they got to a point where they could not afford to feed their families, they would steal and that they had heard from others around them that that would happen, that they would do the same as well. And so I think that for us to hear was a little bit chilling to think that, you know, that kind of disorder and chaos might come to Iran as a result of the pressure that people are under. Iran's economy was already struggling even before the war. That's what fueled widespread protests earlier this year, which the regime suppressed with a deadly crackdown. Now, the increased economic pressure is part of the US's plan to force Iran into submission. Recently, when asked about Iran's economy, President Trump told reporters, "I hope it fails. You know why? Because I want to win." Iranian officials, meanwhile, insist the pressure will not work.

美国政坛速递:油价纾困、电子烟监管与基建项目争议

切换到国内新闻,首先是关于特朗普政府的几项即时更新。

联邦汽油税暂停: 特朗普总统表示支持暂停征收联邦汽油税,以期在战争推高燃油成本之际,为美国民众提供一些经济缓解。此举预计将为每加仑汽油节省18至24美分,尽管特朗普本人也承认这笔数额不大,因为目前汽油平均价格已达每加仑4.5美元,较战争初期上涨了约50%。任何税收暂停都需要国会批准。值得注意的是,早在2022年,拜登总统在乌克兰战争推高油价后也曾呼吁国会议员采取类似措施,但共和党人将其斥为“花招”,国会最终未予批准。

调味电子烟监管: 美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)正着手允许烟草和电子烟公司销售调味电子烟。此前,FDA出于对糖果和水果口味吸引儿童的担忧,仅批准销售薄荷醇或烟草口味的电子烟。然而,非法产品已流入市场。现在,FDA表示将打击这些非法产品,同时为大型公司合法销售更多口味的产品打开大门。此举对烟草公司而言无疑是一个胜利,它们曾向特朗普总统及其他共和党人捐赠了数百万美元。据了解该计划的人士透露,白宫已为此推动数月。

林肯纪念堂水池修复合同: 上月,特朗普总统宣布已亲自选定一家承包商修复林肯纪念堂的倒影池,并将其漆成美国国旗的蓝色。他表示,自己认识这家公司,曾与其合作过其高尔夫球场泳池的工程,并称将为纳税人争取到优惠价格。最初估价略低于200万美元,但《纽约时报》获悉,实际成本现已达到最初估价的七倍。该公司如何获得该合同的过程也相当不寻常。类似项目通常需要通过承包商的竞标,但特朗普政府在此案例中绕过了这一程序,理由是时间紧迫,任何延误都可能对政府造成严重“伤害”——尽管并未公开说明这种“伤害”具体是什么。取而代之的是,特朗普政府强调总统希望在国家250周年庆典(7月4日)前完成这项工作。

Original English

Now, three quick updates on the Trump administration. First, >> how long are you suspend that tax for? >> Uh, till it's appropriate. Yeah. >> It's a it's a you know, it's a small percentage, but it's a, you know, it's still money. President Trump said yesterday he's in favor of suspending federal gas taxes to try and give Americans a little relief as the war keeps driving up fuel costs. The move would save Americans somewhere between 18 and 24 cents a gallon, which even Trump admitted is not much since the average cost of gas is now around $4.5 a gallon. That's a roughly 50% hike since the start of the war. Congress would need to approve any tax suspension. Back in 2022, President Biden called on lawmakers to do that after the war in Ukraine drove gas prices way up. Republicans called it a gimmick and Congress did not sign off.

Also, the Food and Drug Administration is moving to allow tobacco and vape companies in the US to begin selling flavored ecigarettes. For years, the FDA has only allowed companies to sell menthol or tobacco flavored vapes over concerns that candy and fruit flavors appealed to children. Illicit products made it through, though, and now the FDA says it's cracking down on those while opening the door for major companies to sell more flavors legally. The move delivered a win for tobacco companies who have donated millions of dollars to support President Trump and other Republicans. According to people familiar with the plan, the White House has been pushing for this change for months.

And >> we can do it for maybe a million and a half to$2 million as opposed to >> Last month, President Trump announced that he'd handpicked a contractor to repair the Lincoln Memorial reflecting pool and paint it American flag blue. He said he knew the company from work it did on swimming pools at one of his golf clubs and that he was getting taxpayers a deal. It was going to cost a little under $2 million, but the Times has learned that the actual cost is now seven times that. How the company got the contract in the first place is also unusual. Similar projects require competing bids from contractors, but the administration bypassed that in this case, saying the timing was urgent and that any delay could cause serious injury to the government. It has not said publicly what that injury would be. Instead, the administration has cited Trump's desire to get the work done before the country's 250th anniversary celebrations on the 4th of July.

以巴冲突:审判与问责制的争议

转向中东地区,以色列在10月7日袭击事件发生两年半后,正着手准备对涉嫌参与此次袭击的巴勒斯坦人进行起诉。据悉,当日约1200人在哈马斯领导的武装分子从加沙地带进入以色列南部时丧生,另有约250名人质被劫持。此次袭击也点燃了加沙战争,据加沙卫生部统计,战争期间以色列已造成超过7万名巴勒斯坦人死亡。

如今,以色列立法者已通过一项法律,为10月7日事件嫌疑人的军事审判铺平了道路。一位议员表示,至少有350名囚犯可能面临指控,尽管以色列在战争期间已击毙了大部分被指控的袭击主谋。这项于昨日通过的立法规定,部分审判过程可以进行现场直播,法院还将有权推翻某些证据规则和其他程序。法律的制定者认为,这是因为案件的复杂性和海量的证据所必需。

然而,人权组织担忧,新法律的部分条款将进一步削弱巴勒斯坦人本已极其有限的正当程序权利,并可能使法官在巨大的公众压力下被迫作出有罪判决。在以色列,包括许多10月7日遇难者家属在内的一些人认为,将焦点放在这些审判上,忽视了更根本的问责制问题。他们认为,真正的正义只有在以色列领导人对其未能阻止此次袭击承担责任时才能实现。一位兄弟遇难的女性告诉《纽约时报》,她认为目标不应是“在城镇广场上吊死任何人”,而是“防止下一次灾难”。

Original English

In Israel, more than 2 and 1/2 years after October 7th, the country is now preparing to begin prosecuting Palestinians suspected of taking part in the attack. Roughly 1,200 people were killed that day when Hamas led militants from Gaza into southern Israel and some 250 hostages were taken. The attack ignited the war in Gaza during which Israel killed more than 70,000 Palestinians according to Gaza's health ministry. Now legislators in Israel have enacted a law paving the way for military trials for the October 7th suspects. One lawmaker said at least 350 prisoners could face charges, though Israel has already killed most of the accused masterminds of the attack during the war. The legislation, which was passed yesterday, calls for parts of the trials to be broadcast live, and the court will be empowered to override certain rules of evidence and other procedures, which the authors of the law say is necessary because of how complex the cases are and the huge volume of evidence. Rights groups, however, say parts of the new law will undercut what are already minimal due process rights for Palestinians and that the judges will face overwhelming public pressure to convict. For some in Israel, including many relatives of those who were killed on October 7th, the focus on these trials misses the more fundamental question of accountability. They say that justice can happen only when Israeli leaders are held accountable for their failure to prevent the attack. A woman whose brother was killed told the Times she doesn't think the goal should be to quote hang anyone in the town square. It's to prevent the next disaster.

订阅经济的渗透与消费者的“订阅疲劳”

最后,对于美国消费者而言,订阅服务已无处不在。你不仅要为流媒体、Amazon Prime(亚马逊会员服务)、Costco(好市多会员服务)支付周期性费用,云存储约会应用、甚至打印机墨水都开始采用订阅模式。有些订阅服务更是极其小众,例如定期配送蚯蚓来喂养你的蝾螈,或是为那些你甚至未曾想过需要订阅的东西提供服务,比如某些汽车公司推出的“增强马力”订阅服务。

订阅服务本身并非新生事物,但其迅速渗透到经济的各个角落,意味着消费者正面临着日益增长的订阅项目累积。几年前哈佛商学院的一项研究发现,近75%的直销消费品公司提供订阅服务。对公司而言,订阅模式的好处远不止稳定的收入来源。

公司之所以青睐订阅模式,是因为当用户订阅某项服务时,就等于向公司提供了关于自身的宝贵信息。 用户会分享购买历史、购买时间、购买物品以及购买频率等数据,并且每月持续支付。这使得公司能更精准地了解客户,从而更有效地推送产品和广告。

我的同事 Sopan Debb 一直在关注订阅服务的崛起及其引发的普遍消费者疲劳现象。订阅服务给客户带来了诸多挫败感,尤其是一些公司设置的取消订阅的繁琐流程。这一现象也成为了政客们关注的焦点。例如,在乔·拜登总统任期内,拜登政府曾试图通过联邦贸易委员会(FTC)简化用户的取消订阅流程,但该规定去年被联邦法院阻止,此后一直没有新的进展。Sopan指出,在订阅趋势似乎看不到尽头的情况下,我们甚至已经发展到了可以“订阅一个订阅管理器”来帮助用户管理自己众多订阅的程度。

以上是今日《纽约时报》头条新闻的全部内容。节目还预告了明日的另一主题:为何在教堂出席率数十年来持续下降的背景下,如今却有越来越多的美国人开始寻求宗教信仰。听众可在纽约时报App或任何播客平台收听。我是 Tracy Mumford。节目明天将由我的同事 Will Jarvis 为您继续播报。

Original English

And finally, for American consumers, subscriptions have become ubiquitous. You've got your recurring payments for your streaming subscriptions, Amazon Prime, Costco, but it's more than that. cloud storage, dating apps, ink for your printer. Some subscriptions out there are absurdly niche, like regular shipments of earthworms to feed your salamander, or they're for things you didn't even realize you'd ever need a subscription for, like how some car companies offer a subscription for improved horsepower. Obviously, subscriptions aren't new, but their rapid expansion into all corners of the economy means they're really piling up. A study from Harvard Business School a few years ago found that almost 75% of companies that sell directly to consumers now offer a subscription. And for the companies, it's not just about the steady income stream. >> Companies like subscriptions because when you subscribe to a company, you're giving them information about yourself. You're giving them information about purchase history. You're giving them information about when you buy, what you buy, how often you buy, and you're doing it every month by paying them. And so it gives them more information on how to target you with products, ads, etc. >> My colleague Soand Debb has been looking at the rise of subscriptions and the rise of many consumers fatigue over them. >> Subscriptions have caused frustrations for customers especially because they're really hard to get rid of for some companies. And this has become fodder for politicians. For example, under Joe Biden's presidency, the Biden administration tried to actually make it easier for you to cancel your subscriptions under the FTC, but a federal court blocked that rule as of last year, and since then, there's been no action on this. >> Sopan says that with no end in sight for the subscription trend, we have now actually reached the point where you can subscribe to a subscription manager to help you manage your subscriptions. Those are the headlines today on the daily. Why after decades of declining church attendance, more Americans are now seeking religion. You can listen to that in the New York Times app or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Tracy Mumford. The show will be back tomorrow with my colleague Will Jarvis.

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

人物: President Trump, President Biden

公司/组织: FDA, FTC, Hamas

关键字: iran-economy economic-sanctions us-politics vape-regulation subscription-economy