每日回顾：市场动态与焦点

Hey everybody, welcome back to the channel. We are back on another episode of the daily recap, third day in a row after the five-month hiatus, and we are back. 大家好，欢迎回到本频道。我们又回到了每日回顾节目，这是五个月中断后的连续第三天，我们回来了。

I'm very happy that you guys are enjoying this series as much as I enjoy creating it. 我很高兴大家和我一样喜欢这个系列。

We got a lot to talk about. 我们有很多要谈论的。

Bent kind of said some stuff about China today that got the markets a little upset. 今天本特（Bent）对中国发表了一些言论，让市场有些不安。

We'll talk about that. 我们会谈谈这个。

Lots of macro updates. 有很多宏观更新。

Remember how I said yesterday we're going to get a lot more stats on what happened last week on the first 3% down day for the S&P 500 (标普500指数: 美国500家大型上市公司股票组成的指数) in five months? 还记得我昨天说过，我们会得到更多关于上周标普500指数五个月来首次下跌3%当天发生情况的数据吗？

We got some stats and it's quite incredible to look at. 我们得到了一些数据，看起来相当惊人。

And then Amazon. 然后是亚马逊。

I want to talk a little bit about Amazon. 我想聊聊亚马逊。

I bought more Amazon, made some portfolio moves today. 我今天又买入了更多亚马逊股票，并做了一些投资组合调整。

We'll talk about what I did, but I think there's something to discuss in Amazon. 我们会谈谈我做了什么，但我认为亚马逊有一些值得讨论的地方。

Let's get into it. 我们开始吧。

中美关系紧张：市场情绪与投资启示

All right. So, let's start off with what happened with Bent. 好的。那么，我们先从本特（Bent）的事情开始。

Quite simply, I think what's happening right now in the state of China versus the US is that they are going back and forth with each other. 很简单，我认为目前中美两国之间的情况是它们正在相互较量。

Now, why are they going back and forth? 那么，它们为何相互较量呢？

They will be meeting by they, I mean Xi and Trump, that this was confirmed two days ago in South Korea, and that meeting was going to be a really important meeting because they're going to be talking about a lot of different things. 他们，我指的是习近平和特朗普，将举行会晤，这在两天前已在韩国得到证实，那次会晤将非常重要，因为他们将讨论许多不同的事情。

We still have not got a full official trade deal from China, the United States yet, and so we need to see what happens in that meeting. 中美两国尚未达成一项完整的官方贸易协议，所以我们需要看看那次会晤会发生什么。

Now you had two statements today, one by Trump and one by Bent that kind of got the market a little scared. 今天有两份声明，一份来自特朗普，一份来自本特，它们让市场有点害怕。

We were up about 1.2% 1 p.m. the statement comes out from Bent Market falls about 7% then we recover about.3%. 下午1点，本特发表声明时，我们上涨了约1.2%，市场随后下跌了约0.7%，然后我们又回升了约0.3%。

So, all in all, not a flat day for the S&P 500, but definitely not a monster day in terms of the rebound. 所以，总的来说，标普500指数今天不是持平的一天，但在反弹方面也绝非强劲的一天。

We even touched 670 in the morning. 早上我们甚至触及了670点。

673 was the all-time high. 673点是历史最高点。

I think we closed today around 663. 我认为我们今天收盘在663点左右。

So, what did Bent say? 那么，本特说了什么？

He urged the World Bank (世界银行: 提供发展援助和贷款的国际金融机构) to end support for China, said securing critical mineral supply chains (关键矿产供应链: 生产和供应对高科技和能源转型至关重要的稀有金属和矿物的网络) is a US priority, and pushed the bank to finance reliable energy sources. 他敦促世界银行停止对中国的支持，表示确保关键矿产供应链是美国的优先事项，并推动该银行资助可靠的能源。

Essentially, he said, "Hey, we think there is a decoupling (脱钩: 经济、贸易或技术关系分离的趋势) going on between the United States and China from a rare earth perspective," and not just rare earths but a lot of other things in regards to the supply chain. 本质上，他说：“嘿，我们认为中美之间正在发生稀土领域的脱钩”，而且不仅仅是稀土，还有很多其他与供应链相关的事情。

The rare earth export controls (稀土出口管制: 对稀有金属出口施加限制的措施) that China unleashed last week as per Trump is kind of what started this entire debacle in the first place. 根据特朗普的说法，中国上周实施的稀土出口管制，正是这场全面溃败的导火索。

And Bent was upset about it today. 而本特今天对此感到不满。

And Bent made it known how much he's upset about this today. 本特今天明确表达了他对此有多么不满。

If you looked at all the rare earth stocks, US MP, TMQ, CRML, LAC, they're all down on average about 15% on the day. 如果你看看所有稀土股票，US MP、TMQ、CRML、LAC，它们今天平均下跌了约15%。

In fact, AAB is not a rare earth stock, but it's a battery company. 事实上，AAB不是稀土股，而是一家电池公司。

They're down 20% after hours because they lost the grant from the DOE (美国能源部: 负责能源政策和科学研究的美国政府部门). 他们盘后下跌了20%，因为他们失去了美国能源部的拨款。

So, a lot of these high-flying names have kind of taken a little bit of a breather today and it might mean quite frankly that the sector in and of itself is exhausted based on all the momentum that they have had. 所以，今天许多这些高歌猛进的股票都稍作喘息，坦白说，这可能意味着该行业本身已经因为之前的所有上涨势头而筋疲力尽了。

Now, what did Trump say? 那么，特朗普说了什么？

Trump said three things. 特朗普说了三件事。

He said number one, we are in a trade war (贸易战: 国家间通过关税和贸易壁垒互相施压的经济冲突) with China. 第一，他说我们正在与中国进行贸易战。

So definitively, he just said that's the case. 所以，他明确地说情况就是如此。

Number two, he said India assured me they would stop buying Russian oil. 第二，他说印度向他保证会停止购买俄罗斯石油。

I hope that's true, but I don't know if India with 1.4 billion people is actually going to stop buying cheap oil from Russia. 我希望那是真的，但我不知道拥有14亿人口的印度是否真的会停止购买俄罗斯的廉价石油。

And number three, he said five or six of my wars or five or six of wars globally have been solved because of tariffs (关税: 对进口商品征收的税费). 第三，他说他发动的五六场战争或者全球的五六场战争，都因为关税而得到了解决。

So the point that Trump is trying to make right here is bringing the tariff conversation which we really haven't heard about for the past three months to be honest back into the mainstream. 所以特朗普在这里试图表达的观点是，将过去三个月我们几乎没有听到的关税话题重新带回主流讨论。

And the reason he's doing this I think is because he wants to get leverage (谈判筹码: 在谈判中用来增加自身影响力的优势) with China. 我认为他这么做的原因是他想获得与中国谈判的筹码。

Same thing for why Bent said what he said today. 本特今天之所以这么说，也是出于同样的原因。

What's the takeaway for investors? 对投资者来说，这意味着什么？

I think the market reacted to the news today in regards to China and Trump, but they didn't react as negatively as they reacted when the soybean (大豆: 一种重要的农产品和贸易商品) stuff came out yesterday, which I didn't get to talk about because I recorded the video before that happened. 我认为市场对今天关于中国和特朗普的消息做出了反应，但反应没有昨天大豆消息传出时那么负面，我昨天没有谈到大豆，因为我在那发生之前就录制了视频。

It's almost like markets didn't even care about soybeans today. 市场今天似乎根本不关心大豆。

And they didn't react as badly as they reacted on Friday when we had that 3% draw down. 而且它们的反应也没有周五我们下跌3%时那么糟糕。

And I think it's because the markets are just accepting that China and the US are going to go back and forth with each other. 我认为这是因为市场正在接受中美两国将相互较量的事实。

Unless it escalates to some dramatic effect like we had back in April when they were both threatening 150% tariffs against each other then it's likely going to be resolved and the meeting in South Korea next week is very important. 除非事态升级到像四月份那样，两国都威胁要对彼此征收150%的关税，否则很可能会得到解决，下周在韩国举行的会议非常重要。

But stocks were relatively flat to green today based on the idea that hey maybe this doesn't matter as much. 但今天股市相对持平或上涨，基于一种想法，即这可能没有那么重要。

HIMS had a monster move today based on an update that was specific to their HERS (Hims & Hers Health, Inc.旗下的女性健康品牌) part of the business. HIMS (Hims & Hers Health, Inc.: 一家提供远程医疗和健康产品的公司) 今天因为其HERS业务部门的更新而出现了大幅上涨。

And then AMD (Advanced Micro Devices: 一家半导体公司，生产CPU和GPU) looks like it had a bit of a rebound from the Oracle GPU announcement (甲骨文GPU公告: 甲骨文公司发布的关于其图形处理器产品的消息) that the macro kind of killed yesterday in terms of that news but it was a pretty bullish piece of news. 然后，AMD似乎从昨天被宏观因素扼杀的甲骨文GPU公告中有所反弹，但那确实是一条相当看涨的消息。

So you had individual stocks that went up 10 15% today that had nothing to do with China and overall I think probably towards the end of the year the market doesn't care that much about China as long as it doesn't escalate to the extent that we thought it could have escalated on Friday and as a result hopefully stocks are higher by the end of the year because the China situation is likely not that big of a deal. 所以，今天有一些个股上涨了10%到15%，这些与中国无关，总的来说，我认为可能到年底，只要中美局势不升级到我们周五认为可能升级的程度，市场就不会那么关心中国，因此希望到年底股票会走高，因为中国局势可能不是什么大问题。

市场数据揭示“逢低买入”策略盛行

All right next story of the day let's talk about some stats. 好的，今天的下一个话题，我们来谈谈一些数据。

I think this stat was one of the most important stats we saw today based on what happened last week in regards to the 3% draw down on the S&P 500. 我认为这项数据是我们今天看到的最重要数据之一，它基于上周标普500指数下跌3%的情况。

Actually, before I give you guys that stat, let me actually give you this real quick. 实际上，在我给出那个数据之前，让我先快速告诉你们这个。

There is a company out there that on December 29th, this is a company that makes ETFs (交易所交易基金: 一种在证券交易所上市交易的基金), is coming out with 5x leveraged ETFs (5倍杠杆ETF: 一种旨在提供标的指数或资产5倍日回报的交易所交易基金，风险极高). 有一家公司，在12月29日，这家制作ETF的公司将推出5倍杠杆ETF。

Meaning, you can buy a Palantir leverage ETF, you can buy an Nvidia leverage ETF, Google, Circle, Coinbase, XRP, Salana, Ether, Bitcoin, AMD, Amazon by Volatility Shares (Volatility Shares: 一家ETF发行公司), name of the company. 这意味着你可以购买Palantir、英伟达、谷歌、Circle、Coinbase、XRP、Solana、以太坊、比特币、AMD、亚马逊的杠杆ETF，发行公司名为Volatility Shares。

They're putting that out. 他们正在推出这些产品。

That's going to be happening towards the end of the year. 这将在年底发生。

I personally will likely not touch this stuff because it is very volatile. 我个人可能不会碰这些东西，因为它非常不稳定。

That means if AMD falls 10% in a day, this ETF will fall 50% in a day. 这意味着如果AMD一天下跌10%，这个ETF一天就会下跌50%。

Pretty aggressive, but nonetheless, that's kind of the nature of this market. 相当激进，但即便如此，这就是这个市场的本质。

That's the nature of these products. 这就是这些产品的本质。

And if these products continue to get it bought up, that there will be a market for those that supply these products. 如果这些产品继续被买入，那么就会有市场来供应这些产品。

Now, why do the suppliers of these products continue to supply them? 那么，为什么这些产品的供应商会继续供应它们呢？

Well, here's the stat that I think is quite incredible to hear. 嗯，这里有一个我认为相当惊人的数据。

Last week was a record week for stock market inflows (股市资金流入: 投资者投入股市的资金). 上周是股市资金流入创纪录的一周。

So, two levels to this. 这有两层含义。

It was the fifth largest in history, bar none. 这是历史上第五大流入量，毫无疑问。

Fifth largest in history for stock market inflows last week is from Bank of America research. 上周股市资金流入量位居历史第五，这是美国银行研究的数据。

It was the biggest ever for a week if the market was down at least 1%. 如果市场至少下跌1%，那这是有史以来流入量最大的一周。

Markets down at least 1%. 市场至少下跌1%。

It was the biggest week ever of inflows. 这是有史以来流入量最大的一周。

And overall, it was the fifth largest single stock inflows in history. 总的来说，这是历史上第五大单股资金流入量。

This is retail and institutional. 这包括散户和机构。

Now we looked at a stat yesterday about equity call options (股票看涨期权: 一种金融合约，赋予持有人在特定时间内以特定价格购买股票的权利). 昨天我们看了一个关于股票看涨期权的数据。

61 million on Friday, 41 million put options (看跌期权: 一种金融合约，赋予持有人在特定时间内以特定价格出售股票的权利). 周五有6100万份看涨期权，4100万份看跌期权。

We had 108 million which was quite incredible to see that much level of option buying in the stock market on a 3% down day. 我们有1.08亿份期权，在一个下跌3%的日子里，股市有如此大量的期权买入，这相当令人难以置信。

I think that combined with this research that is showing how much money entered in the market institutional or retail just goes to show we're in a buy the dip (逢低买入: 在资产价格下跌时买入，预期其未来会上涨的投资策略) market and maybe one day we won't be in a buy the dip market. 我认为这与这项研究相结合，它显示了有多少机构或散户资金进入市场，这表明我们正处于一个逢低买入的市场，也许有一天我们将不再是逢低买入的市场。

Maybe next year it's going to be a different type of year. 也许明年会是不同的一年。

Maybe earnings are not going to be that good. 也许盈利不会那么好。

But by the way, Morgan Stanley (摩根士丹利: 一家全球领先的金融服务公司) crushed it this morning. 但顺便说一句，摩根士丹利今天早上表现出色。

Bank of America (美国银行: 美国最大的银行之一) crushed it this morning. 美国银行今天早上也表现出色。

United (联合航空: 一家大型航空公司) had their best earnings ever. 联合航空取得了有史以来最好的财报。

They guided for their best operating income (营业收入: 企业在扣除销售成本和运营费用后，从其核心业务活动中获得的收入) in the history of being a public company for Q4 (第四季度: 会计年度的最后一个季度). 他们预计第四季度的营业收入将创下公司上市以来的历史新高。

I mean, earnings are crushing it. 我的意思是，财报表现非常出色。

It makes me pretty optimistic for what we're going to get from tech earnings (科技股财报: 科技公司发布的财务业绩报告) given how the banks have done. 考虑到银行的表现，我对科技股财报的结果感到相当乐观。

But it's a buy the dip market and look, if you've been buying the dip, you've been rewarded for it. 但这是一个逢低买入的市场，而且，如果你一直在逢低买入，你已经得到了回报。

But the fact that this level of buying the dip is happening is something that I've never seen before. 但这种程度的逢低买入正在发生，这是我从未见过的。

And quite frankly, it's phenomenal to live through it. 坦白说，亲身经历这一切令人惊叹。

So last week, 3% draw down, one of the worst days for the S&P 500 in five months. 所以上周，标普500指数下跌3%，是五个月来最糟糕的日子之一。

Markets did not care. 市场并不在意。

Retail investors definitely did not care and people bought the dip. 散户投资者肯定不在意，人们都在逢低买入。

亚马逊：从短期交易到投资基石

All right, let's talk about Amazon (亚马逊: 一家大型电子商务和云计算公司) and what's going on with Amazon. 好的，我们来谈谈亚马逊以及亚马逊的情况。

So, I've been building a position in Amazon and originally I thought of it as a trade. 所以，我一直在建立亚马逊的头寸，最初我把它看作是一笔交易。

The simple thesis was, hey, this stock is barely up year to date. 简单的论点是，嘿，这只股票今年以来几乎没有上涨。

Although their Mac 7s (Magnificent Seven: 指美国股市中七家大型科技公司，包括苹果、微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、英伟达、特斯拉和Meta) are up, I'm in at 220. 尽管他们的“七巨头”股票上涨了，我以220美元的价格买入。

I like it at 260. 我喜欢它在260美元。

I think it can make a move by the end of the year. 我认为它在年底前可能会有所表现。

The more I've started to research Amazon, the more I've started to do due diligence on the company, the more I've started to realize how I think underpriced it is against the opportunity of the stock, the more it is becoming a long-term position and essentially a cornerstone of the portfolio, which look, it's not that hard of a cell to make a Amazon a cornerstone of a portfolio. 我越是开始研究亚马逊，越是开始对这家公司进行尽职调查，就越是开始意识到它相对于股票机会而言被低估了多少，它也越来越成为一个长期持有的头寸，本质上是投资组合的基石，你看，把亚马逊打造成投资组合的基石并不是那么难。

For those that don't understand the cornerstone concept, this is something I learned a couple years ago. 对于那些不理解“基石”概念的人来说，这是我几年前学到的东西。

You want to have two to three stocks realistically. 你实际上想要持有两到三只股票。

Like I think max is five pushing above five is pushing it but usually the sweet spot is two to three that becomes a cornerstone of the portfolio (投资组合基石: 投资组合中长期持有且具有高确定性的核心资产). 我认为最多是五只，超过五只就有点多了，但通常最佳点是两到三只，它们成为投资组合的基石。

What are two to three names that you can DCA (平均成本法: 通过定期定额投资来平摊购买成本的策略) in at any price that you can hold on to at any price that you have such unbelievable conviction (信念: 对某项投资的强烈信心) in that the worst thing could happen and you're probably not going to sell. 哪些是两到三只你可以以任何价格进行平均成本法投资，以任何价格持有，并且你对其拥有如此坚定的信念，即使最糟糕的情况发生，你可能也不会出售的股票？

They can sell options against that you can potentially sell if you needed to do something because you know the right movements of the technical layers of the stock if you really understand those companies so well and then you can get back in. 它们可以出售期权，如果你需要做一些事情，你也可以潜在地出售它们，因为如果你非常了解这些公司，你就知道股票技术层面的正确走势，然后你可以重新买入。

Like what are those two to three names of your portfolio? 比如，你投资组合中的两到三只股票是什么？

For me, it's pretty obvious. 对我来说，这很明显。

Robin and Pounder (Palantir Technologies: 一家大数据分析软件公司), I think I know those companies pretty well and as a result, I've been able to build positions in those companies and I want to hold them for a long time. Robinhood和Palantir，我认为我非常了解这些公司，因此我得以在这些公司中建立头寸，并且我想长期持有它们。

Nvidia (英伟达: 一家设计图形处理器和AI芯片的公司), ironically, has become the third one and I thought Nvidia was not even a company worth investing in in the beginning of the year. 讽刺的是，英伟达成了第三个，而我今年年初甚至认为英伟达不值得投资。

Then Deepc happened, really did some due diligence and now it's become a substantial part of the portfolio. 然后进行了深入研究，认真做了尽职调查，现在它已经成为投资组合的重要组成部分。

So Nvidia hood and poutier I can see myself for the next five years not worrying about owning pounder hood or Nvidia simply because they are the cornerstones of the portfolio. 所以英伟达、Robinhood和Palantir，我预见未来五年我不会担心持有Palantir、Robinhood或英伟达，仅仅因为它们是投资组合的基石。

So, what can become a cornerstone portfolio stock? 那么，什么可以成为投资组合的基石股票呢？

Two categories. 两类。

It's either a stock you're super early in and therefore even if it falls 50%, you're still up so much that the margin of safety is so high. 要么是你超早期介入的股票，因此即使它下跌50%，你仍然盈利很多，安全边际极高。

Hood and Pounder are those for me. Robinhood和Palantir对我来说就是这类股票。

Or number two, it's a really good high-quality company. 或者第二种，它是一家非常好的高质量公司。

Like, it's a freaking phenomenal company where you can sleep well at night knowing all the financial obligations you have in life won't necessarily go to if the company goes to because you're holding on to something special. 比如，它是一家非常出色的公司，你可以高枕无忧，因为你知道你生活中的所有财务义务不会因为公司破产而破产，因为你持有的是一些特别的东西。

It's a sleep well at night stock (安心股: 指那些财务稳健、前景光明，让投资者能够安心持有的股票), a SWAN stock (安心股: 指那些财务稳健、前景光明，让投资者能够安心持有的股票). 它是一只安心股，一只SWAN股票。

That to me is Amazon. 对我来说，那就是亚马逊。

And Amazon continues to be disrespected by the street. 而亚马逊继续被华尔街所忽视。

Couple stats for you. 给你几个数据。

And this stats, I'm pulling some of this from our boy Austin. 这些数据，我一部分是从奥斯汀那里获得的。

I'm going to leave his Twitter thread in the chat. 我会在聊天中留下他的推特帖子。

I would definitely recommend people following him because he did some really good writeups on Amazon today. 我绝对会推荐大家关注他，因为他今天对亚马逊写了一些非常好的分析。

Take a listen to this. 听听这个。

Amazon's backlog for AWS (Amazon Web Services: 亚马逊的云计算服务平台) is now 195 billion on top of their existing 160 billion ARR (年度经常性收入: 公司在一年内从订阅、许可或其他经常性来源获得的收入). 亚马逊AWS的积压订单现在达到1950亿美元，这还不包括其现有的1600亿美元年度经常性收入。

The $17.5 billion increase in growth from June 24 to currently right now in 2025, 98.5 billion to 116 billion is one third of Google Cloud's (谷歌云平台: 谷歌的云计算服务平台) entire run rate. 从2024年6月到目前2025年，增长了175亿美元，从985亿美元增至1160亿美元，这相当于谷歌云平台总运行率的三分之一。

One of the reasons why Amazon's getting discounted is because AWS is not growing as fast as GCP (Google Cloud Platform: 谷歌的云计算服务平台) or Azure (Microsoft Azure: 微软的云计算服务平台). 亚马逊被低估的原因之一是AWS的增长速度不如GCP或Azure。

Okay, fair critique. 好的，这是公平的批评。

The problem is they are growing the net dollars (净美元: 扣除相关成本后的实际收入金额) way more in volume and size than Google and than Google and Microsoft. 问题在于，他们在数量和规模上实现的净美元增长远超谷歌和微软。

That's not necessarily a reason to say it's a better stock, but that is to say, dude, this is a massive business that is not slowing down. 这不一定能说明它是一只更好的股票，但它表明，伙计，这是一项庞大的业务，而且没有放缓。

If anything, they can create operating leverage (经营杠杆: 固定成本在总成本中所占比例，高经营杠杆意味着销售额增长能带来更高比例的利润增长) on top of that business to make their margins (利润率: 销售收入中利润所占的百分比) better. 如果有什么不同的话，他们可以在这项业务的基础上创造经营杠杆，以提高他们的利润率。

Right now, their margins are 36%. 目前，他们的利润率为36%。

Those margins go to 37 38%. 如果这些利润率达到37%或38%。

We're talking about tens of billions of an increase in net income (净收入: 公司在扣除所有费用和税款后的最终利润) per year, which, you know, if a PE (市盈率: 股票价格与每股收益之比，用于衡量股票估值) is based on the E (Earnings: 收益，指每股收益或总收益) and the E goes up because the net income goes up because the margins go up, that earnings multiple (收益倍数: 市盈率的另一种说法) should expand and that should be very good for Amazon. 我们谈论的是每年数百亿美元的净收入增长，你知道，如果市盈率是基于收益（E）的，而收益因为净收入增加、利润率提高而上升，那么这个收益倍数应该会扩大，这对亚马逊来说应该是非常好的。

61 billion of what they do is advertising (广告业务: 通过在平台上展示广告获得的收入). 他们业务中有610亿美元来自广告。

I mean, I don't even think about the Amazon advertising business, but obviously it's massive because they have all the data and that's growing 20%. 我的意思是，我甚至没有考虑过亚马逊的广告业务，但显然它规模庞大，因为他们拥有所有数据，而且增长了20%。

That's also a high margin business. 这也是一项高利润业务。

And then finally, this stat I think is one of the most important stats to recognize. 最后，我认为这项数据是最重要的识别数据之一。

Amazon's EV to Ebida multiple (企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润倍数: 一种估值指标，衡量公司企业价值相对于其息税折旧摊销前利润的倍数) is trading at the lowest enterprise value (企业价值: 公司总价值，包括市值、净债务和少数股权) over Ebida (息税折旧摊销前利润: 一种衡量公司盈利能力的指标，不考虑利息、税项、折旧和摊销) in history. 亚马逊的企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润倍数目前处于历史最低水平。

Okay, so that's the first thing. 好的，这是第一点。

Second thing is the average EV to Ebida for the MAG 7 (Magnificent Seven: 指美国股市中七家大型科技公司) right now, the other six companies in the MAG 7 39.3. 第二点是，目前“七巨头”中其他六家公司的平均企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润倍数为39.3。

Amazon 17.3. 亚马逊是17.3。

It's a 56% discount (56%的折价: 估值比同类公司低56%). 这是一个56%的折价。

I'm not trying to pound the table (敲桌子: 强烈推荐或支持某事) and say Amazon is the biggest buy in the market right now. 我并不是想敲桌子说亚马逊是目前市场上最值得买入的股票。

In fact, Amazon it could be flat throughout the end of the year. 事实上，亚马逊可能在今年底之前都保持平稳。

I'm saying if you have done very well this year in the stock market and you've taken the risk on betting on names that are super speculative but that have growth trajectory and you held on you DCA you bought in April it is not insane or crazy to say rotating some of that money or even the dry powder (干粉资金: 投资者或公司持有的可用于投资或收购的现金储备) that you have into something that's not flying five or six% every day so you're not getting the dopamine hit (多巴胺刺激: 快速获得满足感或愉悦感的体验) of those stocks moving as green as they are but you're buying something that is undervalued (被低估: 市场价格低于其内在价值) to its peers. 我的意思是，如果你今年在股市表现非常好，并且冒着风险押注那些超级投机但有增长轨迹的股票，并且你坚持住了，你进行了平均成本法投资，你在四月份买入了，那么将部分资金，甚至是你持有的干粉资金，轮换到那些不会每天上涨五六个百分点的股票上，这样你就不会得到那些股票快速上涨带来的多巴胺刺激，但你买入的是相对于同行被低估的股票，这并非不理智或疯狂。

Is it undervalued overall? 它整体上被低估了吗？

I mean that they're going to have to put up really good earnings for us to be able to make that discussion. 我的意思是，他们将不得不拿出非常好的财报，我们才能进行那样的讨论。

I think based on the earnings we've seen on a trailing 12 month basis, the answer to that is correct. 我认为根据我们过去12个月的财报来看，这个问题的答案是肯定的。

But you're buying Amazon. 但你买的是亚马逊。

Amazon goes down 10%. 亚马逊下跌10%。

Okay, you're bag holding (被套牢: 投资者持有价格下跌的资产，处于亏损状态) Amazon. 好的，你被亚马逊套牢了。

You're not bag holding quantum nuclear mechanics (量子核力学: 虚构的、用来形容高度投机且复杂公司的名字). 你被套牢的不是量子核力学。

You're bag holding Amazon. 你被套牢的是亚马逊。

It's a buy for me. 对我来说，这是买入。

I think it's one of the more compelling opportunities in the market. 我认为这是市场上更具吸引力的机会之一。

And as a result, I'm buying more Amazon. 因此，我正在买入更多亚马逊股票。

And this is not to persuade other people to buy more Amazon. 这并不是为了说服其他人购买更多亚马逊。

It's just, hey, looking in this market that's super frothy (泡沫化: 市场估值过高，存在泡沫风险), that has a bunch of names that are running like crazy. 只是，嘿，看看这个超级泡沫化、有很多股票疯狂上涨的市场。

There's a bad narrative around Amazon for a variety of reasons. 由于各种原因，围绕亚马逊有一个负面叙事。

Narratives fade (叙事消退: 市场对某公司的负面或正面故事逐渐失去影响力). 叙事会消退。

We saw what happened with Google 150 to 250 because the DOJ narrative (司法部叙事: 司法部对公司进行反垄断调查或诉讼所带来的负面影响), the search is dead narrative (搜索已死叙事: 关于传统搜索引擎业务将消亡的观点) went away. 我们看到了谷歌从150美元涨到250美元的情况，因为司法部的叙事和搜索已死的叙事都消失了。

If that happens with Amazon, I think this is closer to $300 stock and as a result, I continue to buy more. 如果这种情况发生在亚马逊身上，我认为这只股票会更接近300美元，因此我继续买入。

英伟达与数据中心：增长潜力与战略合作

All right, next up is Nvidia (英伟达: 一家设计图形处理器和AI芯片的公司) and more on what's going on with the world of data centers (数据中心: 集中存放计算机服务器和网络设备的设施). 好的，接下来是英伟达，以及更多关于数据中心领域正在发生的事情。

So, Nvidia got a price target upgrade (目标价上调: 分析师提高对股票未来价格的预期) today to 320. 所以，英伟达今天获得了目标价上调至320美元。

This is a street high price target (华尔街最高目标价: 分析师给出的最高股票目标价) on Nvidia. 这是华尔街对英伟达的最高目标价。

300 from Caner last week was the street high and now 320 is the new street high from HSBC (汇丰银行: 一家全球性银行和金融服务机构). 上周Caner给出的300美元是华尔街最高价，现在汇丰银行给出的320美元是新的华尔街最高价。

What did they say? 他们说了什么？

Well, they increased their earnings estimates (盈利预测: 分析师对公司未来收益的估计). 嗯，他们提高了盈利预测。

We upgrade Nvidia to buy on the back of increasing fiscal year 2027 GPU (图形处理器: 一种专门用于处理图像和视频输出的处理器，也广泛用于AI计算) total addressable market (TAM) (总潜在市场: 某个产品或服务能够覆盖的全部市场规模) relative to our previous expectations leading to an upward revision in our fiscal year 2027 data center revenues (营收: 公司通过销售商品或服务获得的收入) to $351 billion 36% above the consensus forecast (共识预测: 多位分析师对公司未来业绩的平均预测) of 258 billion. 我们上调英伟达评级至买入，原因是2027财年GPU总潜在市场相对于我们之前的预期有所增长，导致我们将2027财年数据中心营收预测上调至3510亿美元，比共识预测的2580亿美元高出36%。

Now, Caner said Nvidia is going to do $11 of EPS (每股收益: 公司净利润除以发行在外的普通股股数，衡量公司盈利能力) by 2027. 现在，Caner表示英伟达到2027年每股收益将达到11美元。

If you combine their EPS with HSBC's revenue target of 351 billion in 2027, that means they'd be trading at a 27 times forward earnings (远期收益: 对公司未来收益的预测) and a 21 times forward price of sales (远期市销率: 股票价格与未来预测销售额之比). 如果将他们的每股收益与汇丰银行2027年3510亿美元的营收目标结合起来，这意味着他们的远期市盈率为27倍，远期市销率为21倍。

Both of those multiples are cheaper than the stock today. 这两个倍数都比今天的股票便宜。

I mean, I don't know if we're going to see another company in history at this scale pull off what Nvidia is doing where the stock is going up, but because of the growth in the company, even as the stock price goes up, the multiple compresses (估值倍数压缩: 尽管股价上涨，但由于盈利增长更快，市盈率等估值指标反而下降), which is really one of the most phenomenal ways to invest in growth stocks because you want to see the growth happen. 我的意思是，我不知道历史上是否还会看到另一家达到这种规模的公司能像英伟达那样，股价上涨，但由于公司的增长，即使股价上涨，估值倍数反而会压缩，这确实是投资成长股最令人惊叹的方式之一，因为你希望看到增长发生。

You want to see the market reward the growth, but you don't want to see the multiple to get egregious (过高: 估值过高，不合理). 你希望看到市场奖励增长，但你不希望看到估值倍数变得过高。

Because obviously the growth should offset the expansion in the multiple. 因为显然增长应该抵消倍数的扩张。

And as a result, I mean, it has just been one of the most phenomenal things to see for Nvidia. 因此，我的意思是，这对英伟达来说，简直是现象级的表现。

That would put them, by the way, at a $7.8 trillion market cap (市值: 公司发行在外股票的总市场价值) if we get to that $320 level. 顺便说一句，如果股价达到320美元，他们的市值将达到7.8万亿美元。

Now, AMD (Advanced Micro Devices: 一家半导体公司) was up today, and I think AMD was up based on that Oracle partnership (甲骨文合作: 甲骨文公司与其他公司建立的合作关系) that was announced yesterday. 今天AMD上涨了，我认为AMD上涨是基于昨天宣布的甲骨文合作关系。

There was no other headline, but AMD closed at around that 238, 239 level. 没有其他头条新闻，但AMD收盘在238、239美元左右。

The other big headline today in the data center space is that Nvidia now partnered with BlackRock (贝莱德: 全球最大的资产管理公司之一). 今天数据中心领域的另一个大新闻是英伟达现在与贝莱德合作了。

They partnered with BlackRock and a UAE investment firm (阿联酋投资公司: 阿拉伯联合酋长国的投资机构). 他们与贝莱德和一家阿联酋投资公司合作。

And the idea of the investment firm is essentially it's a they're they're acquiring a company for $40 billion. 这家投资公司的想法本质上是他们正在以400亿美元收购一家公司。

And the acquisition (收购: 一家公司购买另一家公司的行为) of this $40 billion company is essentially to continue building more data centers (数据中心: 集中存放计算机服务器和网络设备的设施). 而收购这家400亿美元的公司，本质上是为了继续建设更多数据中心。

Now, this was a really important acquisition for me to see because basically Nvidia is saying, "Hey, we have so much money." 现在，这对我来说是一次非常重要的收购，因为英伟达基本上是在说：“嘿，我们有很多钱。”

They're not spending the entire $40 billion themselves. 他们并没有自己花费全部400亿美元。

They're partnering with other companies, but the reason they're spending this money is because they realize that the best place they could allocate this money to, which is what Jensen has been saying for a long time, is more data center capacity (数据中心容量: 数据中心可用的计算、存储和网络资源). 他们正在与其他公司合作，但他们之所以花这笔钱，是因为他们意识到，最能有效分配这笔钱的地方，正如黄仁勋长期以来所说，是增加数据中心容量。

So, Nvidia and BlackRock teaming up on a 40 billion acquisition of a major global data center firm. 所以，英伟达和贝莱德联手以400亿美元收购一家主要的全球数据中心公司。

This implies roughly 8 million per megawatt of total data center capacity and as a result one of the reasons why this was also excited MGX (MGX: 指由阿联酋主权财富基金设立的AI投资公司) was the AI investment firm as well by the sovereign wealth fund (主权财富基金: 由国家政府拥有和管理的投资基金) in the UAE. 这意味着每兆瓦的总数据中心容量大约价值800万美元，因此，这也是MGX令人兴奋的原因之一，它也是由阿联酋主权财富基金设立的AI投资公司。

Microsoft (微软: 一家大型科技公司) is also going to be included in this deal. 微软也将参与这项交易。

The reason this was excited for the Bitcoin miners (比特币矿工: 参与比特币挖矿过程的个人或公司) today that are now these data center plays (数据中心概念股: 与数据中心业务相关的上市公司) is because IN cipher terowolf bit farms which raised 300 million in a convertible note (可转换票据: 一种允许持有人在未来将其转换为公司股权的债务工具) after hours the stock was down a little bit but market didn't care too much. 今天比特币矿工们（现在也是数据中心概念股）之所以对此感到兴奋，是因为Incitec Pivot、Terawulf、Bitfarms在盘后通过可转换票据筹集了3亿美元，尽管股价略有下跌，但市场并没有太在意。

Nebius, Cororeweave (Nebius, CoreWeave: 专注于高性能计算和AI云服务的公司), there was a Wall Street Journal headline (华尔街日报头条: 《华尔街日报》上的重要新闻) today that Cororeweave is going to be establishing a data center in Texas today. Nebius和CoreWeave，今天《华尔街日报》有一个头条新闻说CoreWeave今天将在德克萨斯州建立一个数据中心。

All of those stocks got a boost. 所有这些股票都得到了提振。

Some of them ended red, most of them ended green for the day because of this idea that wait a second, BlackRock, Nvidia, Microsoft along with the UAE rolling up together and saying, "Hey, we're ready to spend 40 billion more on data centers." 有些收跌，但大多数收涨，因为这个想法——等等，贝莱德、英伟达、微软与阿联酋联手，表示：“嘿，我们准备再花400亿美元在数据中心上。”

Obviously, the leasing capacity of those data centers is likely going to involve more of the hyperscalers (超大规模云计算服务商: 指谷歌、亚马逊、微软等提供大规模云计算服务的公司) and some of the smaller players, and that's why those companies continue to get a bid. 显然，这些数据中心的租赁容量很可能会涉及更多的超大规模云计算服务商和一些小型参与者，这就是这些公司继续获得报价的原因。

Now, are those companies the most quality companies? 那么，这些公司是最高质量的公司吗？

I don't know. 我不知道。

It really depends on your own due diligence. 这真的取决于你自己的尽职调查。

But are they in a trend where this where the secular theme (长期趋势: 持续多年的长期发展趋势) is continuing to increase its momentum? 但它们是否处于一个长期趋势，即这个趋势的势头正在持续增强？

Yes. 是的。

The question becomes, are those stocks good buys from a valuation perspective (估值角度: 从公司估值水平来看), fundamental perspective (基本面角度: 从公司业务、财务状况等基本面来看), and that's subjective. 问题在于，从估值角度和基本面角度来看，这些股票是否是好的买入机会，这很主观。

But overall, doesn't look like this theme for data centers is going away anywhere. 但总的来说，数据中心这个主题似乎不会消失。

黄金：避险资产的吸引力与市场趋势

All right. Last thing we'll talk about today is gold (黄金: 一种贵金属，常被视为避险资产). 好的。我们今天最后要谈论的是黄金。

Now, I thought this stat was also really important in the context of gold. 现在，我认为这项数据在黄金的背景下也确实很重要。

By the way, gold 4,200. 顺便说一句，黄金价格4200美元。

I mean, just incredible. 我的意思是，简直不可思议。

Silver (白银: 一种贵金属，常被视为避险资产) 53. 白银53美元。

Look, let me know in the chat if you're or in the chat in the comments. 听着，如果你在聊天或评论中，请告诉我。

This is a video. 这是一个视频。

Let me know if you're long gold (做多黄金: 买入黄金，预期其价格上涨) or silver. 告诉我你是做多黄金还是白银。

I have this as my allocation for gold. 我将这个作为我的黄金配置。

It's one of the first ever Robin Hood (Robinhood: 一家提供免佣金交易服务的在线券商) gold credit cards. 这是有史以来第一批Robinhood黄金信用卡之一。

It's not even a real credit card, but it's one of the prototypes I have. 它甚至不是一张真正的信用卡，但它是我拥有的原型之一。

So, this is real gold. 所以，这是真金。

I got this at when gold was trading at like 2200. 我是在黄金交易价约2200美元时得到的。

So, this has appreciated, but I don't actually own gold. 所以，这已经升值了，但我实际上并没有持有黄金。

It's not been something that I've been into. 这不是我一直感兴趣的东西。

But some of these stats are crazy. 但其中一些数据很疯狂。

So, I mean, take a look at this. 所以，我的意思是，看看这个。

Fund managers from Bank of America's survey that have over 400 billion in assets have said gold is their crowdest trade (最拥挤的交易: 多数投资者都在进行的交易，可能导致价格泡沫或反转). 美国银行调查中管理超过4000亿美元资产的基金经理表示，做多黄金是他们最拥挤的交易。

Long gold, long mag 7 (做多Magnificent Seven: 买入Magnificent Seven股票，预期其价格上涨) used to be the crowded trade for three consecutive months. 做多黄金、做多“七巨头”曾连续三个月是最拥挤的交易。

Long gold has topped that. 做多黄金已经超越了这一点。

Second of all, the average investor's allocation (配置: 投资组合中某种资产所占的比例) based on the survey to gold is just 2.4% near an all-time low (历史最低点: 某个指标在历史上的最低水平). 其次，根据调查，普通投资者对黄金的平均配置仅为2.4%，接近历史最低点。

Gold is up 60% this year and the average investor like myself and probably a lot of retail investors (散户投资者: 个人投资者，非机构投资者) don't really own that gold. 今年黄金上涨了60%，而像我以及许多散户投资者这样的普通投资者并没有真正持有那么多黄金。

The allocation is 2.4% 4%. 配置是2.4%到4%。

Which begs to question, wait a second, if the average investor starts piling into gold, does gold have a lot higher to run? 这就引出了一个问题，等等，如果普通投资者开始大量涌入黄金，黄金是否还有很大的上涨空间？

And then if you pair this stat with the allocation from Wall Street (华尔街: 美国金融业的代名词，通常指机构投资者) to cryptocurrencies (加密货币: 使用加密技术进行交易的数字货币) and their allocation to crypto, which is the whole digital gold (数字黄金: 指比特币等被视为类似黄金的避险或保值资产) thing, point4%. 然后，如果你将这项数据与华尔街对加密货币的配置结合起来，他们对加密货币（也就是所谓的数字黄金）的配置是0.4%。

So, Wall Street is allocated more to gold than crypto, but the average investor is barely allocated to gold. 所以，华尔街对黄金的配置多于加密货币，但普通投资者对黄金的配置却很少。

And gold is up 60% for the year. 而且黄金今年上涨了60%。

Bitcoin (比特币: 最知名的加密货币) is up 20% for the year. 比特币今年上涨了20%。

The dollar (美元: 美国货币) is down 10%. 美元下跌了10%。

I mean, I don't know what the run in commodities (大宗商品: 原材料，如黄金、白银、石油等) is telling us other than based on what we talked about yesterday, Powell (杰罗姆·鲍威尔: 美联储主席) saying he's likely going to get more into quantitative easing (QE) (量化宽松: 央行通过购买债券等方式向市场注入大量流动性，以刺激经济的货币政策) versus quantitative tightening (量化紧缩: 央行通过出售债券等方式从市场收回流动性，以抑制通胀的货币政策). 我的意思是，我不知道大宗商品的上涨告诉我们什么，除了我们昨天谈到的，鲍威尔说他可能更倾向于量化宽松而不是量化紧缩。

You've got Paul Tudtor Jones (保罗·都铎·琼斯: 著名对冲基金经理) saying he thinks the federal funds rate (联邦基金利率: 银行间短期借贷的利率，是美联储货币政策的关键工具) is going to be at 2 and a half% by the end of next year. 保罗·都铎·琼斯说他认为到明年年底联邦基金利率将达到2.5%。

When you have all of these elements of, hey, money is going to get cheaper. 当你拥有所有这些因素时，嘿，钱会变得更便宜。

The value of money is going to start to come down, which means you need to put that money into other asset classes (资产类别: 股票、债券、房地产、大宗商品等不同类型的投资资产) like a Bitcoin, like an S&P 500, like a gold or a silver. 货币的价值将开始下降，这意味着你需要将这些钱投入到其他资产类别，比如比特币、标普500指数、黄金或白银。

And then you have this multi-year trend from a technical perspective on gold and silver. 然后，从技术角度来看，黄金和白银呈现出多年的趋势。

Silver actually breaking out of like a three to four year base. 白银实际上突破了三到四年的底部。

It becomes pretty damn silver. 它变得非常像白银。

It's been like 10 years. 已经有十年了。

It becomes pretty damn incredible. 它变得相当令人难以置信。

So I don't think the running commodities is saying that you have to get out of equities (股票: 公司的所有权份额) because the world is going to and like gold is going up so you should sell everything. 所以我认为大宗商品的上涨并不是说你必须退出股票市场，因为世界将要怎样，或者黄金正在上涨，所以你应该卖掉所有东西。

But I think it is saying people don't want to be in cash. 但我认为它是在说人们不想持有现金。

They want to be in hard assets (硬资产: 具有内在价值且不易贬值的实物资产，如房地产、贵金属) or at least assets that are producing something like stocks. 他们想持有硬资产，或者至少是像股票这样能产生收益的资产。

And as a result, that's why you're seeing the momentum in gold and silver. 因此，这就是你看到黄金和白银上涨势头的原因。

总结与个人分享

All right, that's it for me today. 好了，我今天就到这里。

Thank you everybody for joining. 感谢大家的加入。

My Substack (Substack: 一个允许作者发布付费或免费新闻通讯的平台) is launching on Friday. 我的Substack将在周五上线。

Two deep dives (深度分析: 对某个主题、公司或投资机会进行的详细研究和分析) will be out on Friday. 周五将发布两篇深度分析。

Super excited for it. 对此我非常兴奋。

It will be free. 它将是免费的。

No paywall (付费墙: 网站或服务对内容收取订阅费用的机制) ever. 永远没有付费墙。

Hopefully you guys will enjoy my long firm research (长期公司研究: 对公司进行长期、深入的研究) and like I really want to start getting deeper into names that are not just like the, you know, the biggest names that are out there. 希望大家会喜欢我的长期公司研究，而且我真的很想开始深入研究那些不只是，你知道的，那些最知名的公司。

Smaller names and do a lot more research on them. 研究那些规模较小的公司，并对它们进行更多的研究。

The first two deep dives is going to be a little bit more bigger names, but the goal of the Substack, two editions per month, 10 to 15 pages each, so about 5,000 words per Substack, is to really focus on trying to challenge myself to be a better researcher. 前两篇深度分析将是关于一些较大的公司，但Substack的目标是每月两期，每期10到15页，大约每期5000字，旨在真正专注于挑战自己成为一个更好的研究员。

And that's the goal. 这就是目标。

If I buy the stock that I do a deep dive on, I'll disclose the position, but overall, I just want to become a better student of the game (行家: 指在某个领域不断学习和提升专业知识的人) and study more stocks. 如果我买入了我进行深度分析的股票，我会披露我的持仓，但总的来说，我只是想成为一个更好的行家，研究更多的股票。

And I think this will hold me accountable to doing that. 我认为这将促使我做到这一点。

So, if you enjoy it, you can subscribe. 所以，如果你喜欢，可以订阅。

Link in the description, amidst deepdives.com. 链接在描述中，amidstdeepdives.com。

Thank you everybody so much for supporting the daily recap every single day. 非常感谢大家每天对每日回顾的支持。

It really is so much fun to do this. 做这个真的很有趣。

And I'll see you guys tomorrow. 我们明天见。