媒体并购、AI未来与美国政治思潮:Tucker Carlson深度对话 All-In Podcast 2025-12-13

开场白与特朗普的圣诞派对

好的,本周David Friedberg因事缺席,我们请来了All-In播客的第四次嘉宾,独一无二的Tucker Carlson。Tucker,你好吗?

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All right, back with us in place of David Freeberg who's busy this week is the one, the only on his fourth appearance here on the All-In podcast, Mr. Tucker Paulson. How are you, Tucker?

Tucker回应道:“谢谢邀请。”

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>> Thanks for having me.

另一位主持人打招呼:“嘿,Tucker,很高兴见到你。”

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>> Hey, Tucker. Good to see you.

David Sacks接着说:“David,David,你哪有时间?每次我打开手机,David Sacks总是在谈论一些极其复杂的事情。你睡觉吗?通常人们会因为某些事攻击我。”

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>> David, David, how do you have time for every time I every time I turn on my phone, there's like David Sachs on something incredibly complex. Like, are you sleeping? usually people attacking me for something,

他继续说:“但这不仅仅是关于你的观点是这样或那样的地缘政治冲突。它涉及一些非常复杂的细节。我只是觉得,哇,老兄。这太多了。要消化这些信息太多了。”

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>> but it's not just like, oh, your views are this or that geopolitical conflict. It's like the details of something very complicated. And I'm just like, wow, man. That's a lot. That's a lot to digest.

David Sacks谦虚地回应:“是啊。华盛顿的标准不高,你知道的。”

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>> Yeah. There's not a very high bar in Washington, as you know.

主持人称赞道:“你是矮人中的巨人,但工作量依然很大。”

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>> You're a giant among pygmies, but still, it's a lot of work.

David Sacks引用俗语:“在盲人的国度里,独眼人就是国王。”

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>> In the land of the blind, the oneeyed man is king.

主持人:“国王。没错。没错。”

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>> King. Exactly. Exactly.

David Sacks被问及是否仍然乐在其中时说:“你还在享受吗?是啊,一直都很有趣。你知道,为特朗普总统工作很有趣。”

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>> Are you still enjoying it? Yeah, it's been a lot of fun. Well, you know, President Trump's a lot of fun to work for.

主持人补充道:“他最有趣了。”

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>> He's the most fun.

David Sacks:“我是说,最棒的,对吧?”

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>> I mean, the best, right?

主持人:“他昨天得到了一个大大的赞扬。实际上真的很棒。”

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>> He got a big shout out yesterday. It was really awesome, actually.

另一位主持人问:“David得到了吗?”

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>> David did.

主持人:“是啊。巨大的赞扬。”

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>> Yeah. Huge shout out.

David Sacks回忆道:“没错。我们当时在白宫圣诞派对。我想他们大概举办了25场这样的派对。”

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>> That's right. We were at the White House Christmas party. I think they do like 25 of these.

主持人:“是啊。真的。”

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>> Yeah. Literally.

David Sacks:“真的,因为他们有成千上万的人,但白宫只能容纳几百人,所以他们每天要举办两场。总统会下来发表演讲,而且每次演讲都不同。”

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>> Literally, cuz they got so many thousands of people, but they can only fit a couple hundred people in the White House and they're doing like two a day. And the president comes down and gives a speech and every speech is different.

他继续说:“你知道,这就像Dave Chappelle的喜剧表演,他从不重复同样的段子,而且他充满热情和活力地表演,你会觉得你是他唯一一次演讲的假日派对观众。”

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>> You know, it's like a Dave Chappelle comedy routine where he never does the same set and he does it with so much enthusiasm and gusto. You would think that you were the only,

主持人:“你知道,他从未对做这些事表现出任何不快。他乐在其中。这太神奇了。”

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>> you know, holiday party crowd that he ever addressed. He never expresses any irritation at at doing that. He loves it. It's like amazing.

David Sacks:“这简直难以置信。”

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>> It's unbelievable.

David Sacks接着说:“但无论如何,他在演讲中提到了我,然后叫我上去,说:‘嘿,你能说几句关于AI的话吗?’我当时想,嗯,这可不是Chris派对上的谈话内容。所以我只是随便说了说他有多棒,以及为他工作有多有趣。”

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>> But in any event, he gave me a shout out during the speech and then he called me up there to like, hey, can you say a couple words about AI? And I'm like, well, this isn't exactly Chris's party conversation. So, I just kind of talked about how great he was and um how much fun it was to work for him.

他补充道:“然后他还提到了Chamath。”

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>> And then he gave Chamatha a shout out as well.

主持人惊呼:“不会吧。”

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>> No way.

David Sacks说:“他开始谈论All-In播客。我们当时在观众席上,他就开始和我们聊起All-In播客,问它做得怎么样,你知道的。”

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>> And he just starts talking about the All-In Pod. Like, we're in the audience and he just starts having a conversation with us about the All-In Pod and how's it doing? And you know,

他继续说:“最有趣的部分是,他对我说:‘哦,’然后Nat在他身后。所以他走过去说:‘嘿,Nat。’他说:‘希望一切顺利。你的感情怎么样?’他看着我,我当时是这个表情,然后Nat在我身后,我做着这个表情。”

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>> the funniest part was he says to me, "Oh," and then Nat was behind him. So, he goes, "Hey, Nat." And he says, "I hope everything's going well. How's your relationship?" He looks at me and I'm like this and then Nat's behind her. Me going like this.

主持人:“哦,太棒了。我这个周末要去,因为我想他了。”

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>> Oh, it's so awesome. I'm going this weekend cuz I miss him.

另一位主持人问Tucker:“你这个周末要去见他吗?你们关系很好,Tucker?”

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>> You're going to see him this weekend? You guys are on good terms. Tuck

Tucker Carlson回答:“和特朗普?哦,是啊。最好的。我是说,最好的。当然,很多人都告诉他,他不允许和我说话。所以这反而让他更喜欢我了,因为他听到的都是‘哦,他’。人们会说:‘他是活过最糟糕的人。’而特朗普听到的只是‘活过’,你知道的,他就是那样,你无法那样控制他。句号。所以,不,我跟他相处得比我25年来任何时候都好。”

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>> with Trump. Oh, yeah. The best. I mean, the best. I mean, of course, people have told him, many people that he's not allowed to talk to me. So, that just makes him like me much more cuz like all he hears is, "Oh, he's" People be like, "He's the worst human being who's ever lived." And all Trump hears is who's ever lived, you know, and he's just that he's just he's you can't control him that way. Period. So, no, I get along with him literally in 25 years better than I ever have.

主持人:“那也很好。”

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>> That's good, too.

Tucker Carlson:“太搞笑了。是啊。”

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>> It's hilarious. Yeah.

David Sacks继续说:“那个故事的最后一部分是,在他叫我和Chamath上去之后,实际上,他先叫我上去讲话,然后叫David上去讲话。他有点即兴发挥,说:‘你知道,我不喜欢‘人工智能’这个词,因为为什么要叫它‘人工’呢?听起来很糟糕。’”

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>> The last part of that story is so after he calls up me and Jimoth, actually, he calls me up to speak and then calls David up to speak. He went on a little bit of a riff saying, you know, I don't like the term artificial intelligence because why would you want to call it artificial? It sounds bad.

主持人:“为什么不叫它别的名字?超级智能。”

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>> Why don't they call it something else? Superior intelligence

另一位主持人:“智能有机体。”

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>> intelligence organic.

David Sacks:“然后他叫Chamath,他说:‘Chamath,你觉得呢?’Chamath说:‘嗯,我想,我想AI这个词已经太晚了,改不了了,但也许可以叫它‘美国智能’(American Intelligence)。’”

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>> And then and then he calls up Chimath. He's like, Chimath, what do you think? And Chimath says, well, I think I think AI is too late to change, but maybe it could be American intelligence.

他继续说:“然后他说:‘是啊,但你知道,我们希望这能被全世界使用。卖给全世界。’总之,我们就在整个圣诞派对上开始讨论这个品牌推广活动。”

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>> And then he says, yeah, but you know, we want this to be used by the whole world. Sell it to the whole world. Anyway, we start workshopping uh this branding exercise. in front of the entire Christmas party.

主持人开玩笑说:“不如我们叫它‘特朗普超级智能’?好吧,就叫‘特朗普智能’。”

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>> How about we call it Trump super intelligence? Okay, it's Trump intelligence.

David Sacks:“不,但你知道吗?把AI叫做‘美国智能’实际上是关于AI最聪明、最好的做法。”

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>> No, but you know what? Calling AI American intelligence is actually the smartest and best one could do around AI.

媒体行业整合与反垄断争议

主持人说:“Tucker,我们有很多事情要谈,你最近很忙,是吧?我是说,在我的世界里不是。我是说,我大部分时间都不用社交媒体,所以我的世界里实际上没什么真正发生。”

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>> We got a lot to talk about, Tucker, you've been on a run, huh? You've been on I mean, not in my world. I mean, I'm off social media mostly, so it's like nothing's actually really happening in my world.

另一位主持人问:“你完全不打开X吗?”

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>> You don't open X at all.

主持人:“这都是关于我的,老兄。我不会去——我不喜欢读关于我自己的东西,所以我不会看。不。”

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>> It's all about me, man. And I'm not going to I don't like to read about myself, so I don't look at it. No.

主持人接着说:“好了,第一个话题,派拉蒙(Paramount)对阵Netflix。他们正在为华纳兄弟(Warner Bros.)的未来以及所有那些令人惊叹的IP(Intellectual Property: 知识产权)进行竞购战。我们很多人都知道,华纳兄弟探索公司(WBD,Warner Bros. Discovery)由David Zaslav领导,他目前拥有HBO、DC和华纳兄弟的电影系列。此外,他们还有一个很棒的制片厂。在有线电视方面,他们拥有CNN、TNT、Discovery。”

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>> All right. For topic number one, Paramount versus Netflix. They're in a bidding war over the future of Warner Brothers and all that amazing IP. The assets obviously many of us know Warner Brothers is led by Zazlo, David Zazlo, but he owns currently HBO, DC, and the Warner Brothers collections of films. Also, they have that great studio a lot. On the cable side, they own CNN, TNT, Discovery,

他继续说:“而且他们刚刚给这家公司背上了300亿美元的债务。他们对谁会收购它进行了一点竞争。Netflix和派拉蒙旗下的Skydance,由Ellison家族经营。”

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>> and uh they just saddled that company up with $30 billion of debt. And they had a little bit of a competition for who would buy it. Netflix and Paramount Sky Dance, run by the Ellison family.

他补充道:“Netflix出价830亿美元,只为收购其流媒体资产,这将把排名第一和第三的玩家整合在一起。WBD上周五公开接受了Netflix的报价。这引起了一些骚动。”

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>> Netflix offered $83 billion to purchase just the streaming assets, which would put the number one and the number three player together. and WBD publicly accepted Netflix offer last Friday. This has created a bit of a kurluffle.

他继续说:“派拉蒙现在提出了一个敌意收购报价,以1080亿美元现金收购整个公司。这包括有线电视资产。这将很有趣,因为那样的话,Larry Ellison的儿子David Ellison将不仅拥有CBS,CBS新闻由你最喜欢的Tucker Carlson,呃,Bari Weiss经营。”

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>> Paramount now is coming in with a hostile offer, 108 billion in cash for the entire company. That includes the cable assets. That would be interesting because then David Ellison, son of Larry Ellison, would own not just CBS, which is being run CBS News by your favorite Tucker Carlson, uh, Bari Weiss.

他补充道:“在这种情况下,她可能还会拥有并经营CNN。我们稍后会谈到这一点。这1080亿美元的报价包括两种方式,410亿美元的股权融资来自Ellison家族,然后还有其他一些人加入,包括——我们稍后会谈到——一些中东主权财富基金。”

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>> She would also, I guess, own and run CNN in this instance potentially. We'll get to that. Uh the $ 108 billion offer includes two vehicles, 41 billion in equity financing by the Ellison family and then a bunch of other folks coming including and we'll get to this uh some Middle East uh sovereign wealth funds.

他接着说:“有趣的是,PolyMarket将派拉蒙列为最有可能的买家,概率为51%,而Netflix已降至36%,尽管他们声称交易已完成,还有14%的可能性交易不会达成。我认为那14%的无交易可能性可能是白捡的钱。Tucker,你对此有何看法?以及广义上讲,媒体整合,你已经拉响了警报,离开了传统媒体,现在,是啊,大家的理解是你做得比以往任何时候都好。你掌控着自己的命运,我想你现在赚的钱可能和你在为那些人工作时一样多,甚至更多。”

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>> Poly market interestingly has Paramount as the favorite at 51% in Netflix has dropped to 36% even though they say they have a done deal and 14% chance of no deal. I think that might be the free money the 14% chance of no deal. What's your take on this, Tucker? And just broadly speaking, consolidation in media having pulled the rip cord and left traditional media and now yeah, the understanding is you're doing better than ever. You control your destiny and I think you're making probably as much or more money now than you did when you were working for the men.

Tucker Carlson回答:“是啊,我其实没查过,但我不太看重钱,但我很好,可以支付我那不存在的抵押贷款。”

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>> Yeah, I don't I actually haven't checked, but I'm not much of a money guy, but I'm I'm fine and can pay my non-existent mortgage.

他继续说:“我普遍反对垄断权力,因为我认为它会扼杀创造力。我对此并不太担心,因为这些事情,你知道,它们从不会完全按照你想象的方向发展。我一生都在媒体行业,我没有预料到任何重大的变化。事实上,我几乎嘲笑了所有这些变化。我只是不认为我们真的受到CNN和Netflix等巨头的威胁。”

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>> I'm against monopoly power in general because I think it stifles creativity. I'm not that worried about this because these, you know, these things never move in exactly the direction you imagine. I've been in media my entire life and none of the big changes I anticipated. In fact, almost all of them I made fun of. I just don't think that we're really threatened by, you know, a conglomerate of CNN and Netflix and all.

他补充道:“所以,就像,好吧,你可以组建庞大的公司。你能让人们消费并相信你的产品吗?你知道,收购CBS新闻就像收购RCA唱片一样,它根本没有任何影响。只有那些不关注的人,或者说相当脱节的人,才会认为通过收购CBS新闻或CNN就能赢得人心。”

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>> So it's like, okay, you can assemble huge companies. Can you make people consume and believe the product? You know, buying CBS news is like buying RCA records or something. It like just doesn't have any effect. And only people who are not paying attention are pretty cut off think you're going to win hearts and minds by being buying CBS News or CNN.

他接着说:“这些品牌都是空壳。事实上,它们现在只剩下品牌了。我一点也不相信这会对任何人的态度产生实质性影响。你知道,如果你开始干预YouTube被允许播放的内容,或者X的所有权,那么我认为你真的可以改变这个国家以及我们被允许进行的对话。”

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>> These are these brands are husks. In fact, all they are is brands at this point. And I just am not at all convinced that this will have a material effect on anyone's attitudes at all. You know, if you started to mess with what YouTube is allowed to air or the ownership of X, you know, then I think you could could really change the country and the conversations that we're allowed to have.

他总结道:“但我认为这在社会上并没有特别的意义。我是说,产品会变得,你知道,比现在更具颠覆性吗?我是说,Netflix会对美国社会造成更坏的影响吗?可能不会。你知道,我认为这是一个商业故事,而不是一个文化故事。”

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>> But I don't see any of this as especially meaningful on the society. I mean, is the is the product going to get, you know, I don't know, more subversive than than it already is? I mean, is this like Netflix going to be worse for American society? Probably not. You know, I think this is a business story, not a cultural story.

Chamath Palihapitiya被问及他的想法时说:“Chamath,你的想法。我给你两点。第一点是,每当你看到交易时,重要的是要看所涉金额的大小。”

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>> Chimath, your thoughts. I'll give you two. The first is that whenever you see deals, it's important to look at the amount of money that that is at risk.

他继续说:“这是判断这笔交易对未来是否重要的最佳指标。千亿美元级别的交易通常是关于过去的事情。未来是什么?是十亿美元级别的交易。”

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>> And that is the best tell about whether this is important for the future or not. Hundred billion dollar deals are typically about things in the past. What is the future? Billion dollar deals.

他举例说:“所以,例如,当你看到Facebook以十亿美元收购Instagram时,那被证明是对未来的一大赌注,而且赌对了。当谷歌以16亿美元收购YouTube时,那也是对未来的一大赌注。他们赌对了。当微软向OpenAI投资十亿美元时,那也是对未来的一大赌注。它赌对了。”

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>> So for example, when you look at when Facebook bought Instagram for a billion dollars, that turned out to be a huge bet about the future, it was right. When Google bought YouTube for a billion six, that was a huge bet on the future. They were right. When Microsoft invested a billion dollars in OpenAI, that was a huge bet on the future. It was right.

他接着说:“但当你看到那些估值超过千亿美元的资产时,它们被债务严重支撑。所有这些债务都只是通过回顾过去来购买的。这意味着他们赚了多少钱,然后对他们未来能赚多少钱进行最佳猜测。”

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>> But when you look at assets that trade at hundred billion dollar plus valuations, they're so undergurtded by debt. All of that debt is only ever bought by looking at the past. Meaning how much money have they made and then it's a best guess about how much money could they make in the future.

他总结道:“所以,Tucker所说的这些千亿美元资产,它们并没有那么重要。我不认为这会造成超级反竞争。这些是金融交易。媒体行业的现实,具体到这笔交易。”

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>> So these multiund billion assets to Tucker's point, they don't really matter that much. I don't think it's super anti-competitive. These are financial transactions. The reality in media, so specifically about this deal.

他继续说:“所以,这是关于交易金额的一般性陈述,你可以根据此判断其重要性。人们应该花更多时间关注十亿美元级别的交易,而不是千亿美元级别的交易。这是我的看法。”

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>> So that's a general statement about deal quantum and you can just judge the importance based on that. People should be spending much more time looking at billion dollar transactions and hundred billion dollar transactions. That's my takeaway there.

他进一步阐述:“但具体到这笔交易,现实是未来是无剧本、不受控的UGC(User-Generated Content: 用户生成内容)。你在YouTube上可以看到。它已经是这个领域里的800磅大猩猩了。然后,它现在正逐渐转向短视频。”

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>> But at the very specific thing about this deal, the reality is that the future is unscripted, uncontrolled, userenerated content. You see it on YouTube. It is already the 800 lb gorilla in the space. And then separately, it's now becoming about shorter form video.

他举例说:“你可以在Instagram Reels和TikTok上看到这一点。所有这些格局都不会因为这笔交易而改变。如果说有什么的话,如果这些趋势加速,历史IP的价值将会更快地被侵蚀。”

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>> And you see that with things like Instagram reels and Tik Tok. None of that landscape will change based on this deal. If anything, if those trends accelerate, the value of historic IP is going to erode even faster.

他总结道:“这意味着,这一代的孩子将对漫威电影宇宙(Marvel Cinematic Universe)、《星球大战》(Star Wars)一无所知或毫不关心,这可能会让那些对它怀有怀旧情结的我们感到不安。所以,我不知道。我会让这笔交易发生。我不认为它特别重要。”

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>> Meaning, this generation of kids will have no idea or care about the Marvel Cinematic Universe, about Star Wars, and that may upset those of us who are nostalgically tied to it. So, I don't know. I would let the deal happen. I don't think it's particularly that important.

David Sacks被问及他的看法时说:“Sacks,显然你不能代表政府就这些问题发表意见,但我很好奇你对此的看法。”

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>> Saxs, obviously you don't speak for the administration on these issues, but I'm curious your thoughts on this.

David Sacks回答:“是啊,我个人对此的看法是,无论如何,我们都将看到行业内有意义的整合,因为要么Netflix和华纳合并,要么派拉蒙和华纳合并。所以无论哪种方式,你都会看到整合。”

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>> Yeah, just my personal view on this is that we're going to get meaningful consolidation in the industry either way because either Netflix and Warers are going to merge or Paramount and Warers are going to merge. So either way, you're going to get consolidation.

他接着说:“但话虽如此,如果Netflix被允许收购华纳,反垄断担忧会更加严重,因为Netflix现在确实是好莱坞的800磅大猩猩。它是迄今为止排名第一的流媒体公司。它拥有最大的市值。他们是现在好莱坞其他公司都感到恐慌的一方。”

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>> But that being said, if Netflix is allowed to buy Warers, the antitrust concerns are a lot more serious because Netflix really is the 800 lb gorilla in Hollywood right now. It's the number one streamer by far. It's got the biggest market cap. And they're the party who the rest of Hollywood is freaked out about right now.

他补充道:“所以你看到好莱坞的工会,比如WGA(美国编剧工会)和SAG(美国演员工会),他们反对这笔交易,因为他们担心裁员、工资降低、由于对人才需求减少而导致工作条件恶化。然后内容创作者和发行商也对此感到担忧,因为Netflix以其比传统制片厂更强硬的交易而闻名。”

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>> And so you saw that the Hollywood unions like the WGA sag. They oppose the deal because they're fearing job cuts, lower wages, worsen conditions due to reduced demand for talent. And then the the content creators and distributors are worried about this too because Netflix is known for making tougher deals I think than the traditional studios.

他举例说:“我在好莱坞有个朋友是剧集总监,他既与Netflix合作过项目,也与传统制片厂合作过,他说最大的区别是Netflix会付给你不错的报酬,但你无法获得你节目的任何股权。你得到的任何东西都是在开始时商定的,仅此而已。所以,当你为他们制作节目时,你并不是一个真正的企业家。”

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>> I've got a friend who's a showrunner in Hollywood, and he's done projects with both Netflix and with the studios, traditional studios, and he says the big difference is Netflix will pay you pretty well, but you don't get any equity in your show. Like whatever you get is sort of agreed to at the beginning and that's it. So, you're not really an entrepreneur when you do a show for them.

他继续说:“但是当你为制片厂工作时,你实际上会得到分成。当然,这其中涉及各种好莱坞式的会计操作,但他有点怀念那些正在消失的日子,那时他可以有点像个企业家,在自己的节目中获得真正的上升空间。如果Netflix现在被允许收购华纳兄弟,那只会是棺材上的又一颗钉子。”

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>> But when you then work for a studio, you actually get a back end. Now there's all sorts of, you know, Hollywood accounting associated with that, but he kind of misses the days that are going away where he got to be a little bit of an entrepreneur and have real upside in his shows. And if Netflix now is allowed to acquire Warner Brothers and that's just another nail in that whole coffin.

他总结道:“所以我认为这是一个巨大的变化,如果反垄断监管机构审视这一点,我确实认为派拉蒙有更好的机会。另一个重要因素是派拉蒙的出价更高。他们提高了报价。”

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>> And so I think it is a big change and if the antitrust regulators look at this, I do think that Paramount has a better chance. The other big factor is just that Paramount's offering more. They up the bid.

主持人补充道:“是1080亿美元对大约80亿美元,或者说是每股30美元对27美元。而且他们还收购了整个公司,而Netflix只想要华纳的流媒体资产,比如HBO,而不是有线电视资产,后者被认为有点像个包袱。”

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>> It's 108 billion versus around 80 or was like $30 a share versus 27. And they're also buying the whole company whereas Netflix just wants Warner's studio assets and streaming assets like HBO as opposed to the cable assets which are considered a little bit of a co.

他继续说:“所以,我想如果你是华纳的股东,你可能想把整个公司都卖掉。你不想只剩下那些不好的资产。所以,是啊。”

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>> So, I think if you're a shareholder in Warers, you probably want to sell the whole thing. You don't want to just be stuck with the bad assets. So, yeah,

David Sacks说:“我有点惊讶,华纳董事会选择了Netflix,而派拉蒙的报价当时也在考虑之中,假设派拉蒙的报价已经摆在桌面上,因为它看起来是一个更好的交易,而且可能更容易通过监管机构的审查。所以,我想我有点惊讶他们选择了Netflix,但我想Netflix是更可靠的一方,对吧?它有4000亿美元的市值,也许他们认为他们更有能力执行这笔交易。”

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>> I'm a little surprised actually that the Warner board went with Netflix when they had Paramount as an option, assuming this Paramount offer was on the table, because it seems like a better deal, and it's probably a little bit more likely to get through the regulators. So, I guess I'm a little bit surprised they chose Netflix, but I guess Netflix is the more bonafideed party, right? It's $400 billion market cap and maybe they thought that they're more able to execute this transaction.

Jason Calacanis说:“是啊,我对此只有三点看法。第一点是,这真的取决于你如何定义这个领域的竞争者。”

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>> Yeah, I have only three points on this. Number one, it really depends on how you frame competitors in this space.

他接着说:“这里有你的付费流媒体平台,Netflix、Disney和HBO。Disney在Netflix开始流媒体业务十年后,做得非常出色,获得了大量订阅用户,并巩固了市场地位,显然这会把Disney远远甩在后面。但如果你开始关注TikTok、Instagram、YouTube,这些平台拥有大部分受众。”

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>> Here's your paid streaming platforms, Netflix, Disney, and HBO. Disney's done an amazing job after starting a decade after Netflix with streaming of really getting a lot of subscribers and consolidating one in three here obviously puts Disney way behind. But if you start looking at Tik Tok, Instagram, YouTube, these properties have the majority of the audience.

他补充道:“它们的用户数量远超这些付费服务。年轻人对电影不再感兴趣。他们显然想要TikTok和YouTube。如果你看收入,那是一个。”

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>> They dwarf the audience of these paid services. And young people are not interested in movies anymore. They want obviously Tik Toks and YouTube. If you look at the revenue, it's a

Chamath插话问:“在你继续之前,我能问你一个关于那个图表的问题吗?你如何比较,或者你是否根据观看时间或分钟数进行调整?因为你如何。”

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>> ask you a question about that chart before you move on. does how do you compare or do you adjust for time watched or minutes because how do you

Jason回答:“我没有,但那样会。”

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>> I didn't in this but yeah that would

Chamath:“观看TikTok和观看Netflix上的电影在注意力持续时间上会有很大的不同。”

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>> a big difference between watching a Tik Tok and watching you know a movie on Netflix in terms of attention span

Jason:“不同意你的看法。”

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>> disagreeing with you about the

Chamath:“看,毫无疑问,文化意义已经从好莱坞转向了这些在线平台上的用户生成内容,但我只是好奇你是否对此进行了调整。”

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>> look there's no question the cultural significance has moved away from Hollywood towards user generated content on these online platforms but I'm just curious you adjusted for that

Jason说:“是啊,不,我没有调整。你可以从很多不同的角度来分析,但归根结底,我把这里的竞争范围放得更广一些,包括了免费的UGC服务,因为年轻人都在使用这些服务。然后如果你看收入,你会发现情况略有不同。”

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>> yeah no I didn't adjust for that you could you could slice it a bunch of different ways but at the end of the day you I put the competitive set as a little bit broader here um which is including the free you know UGC services since that's what young people are doing and then if you look at revenue you you know it's a slightly different picture here these paid services are doing extremely well and they are juggernauts in terms of making money and profitability now and UGC obviously is much larger especially on a global basis.

他继续说:“这些付费服务表现非常出色,它们在赚钱和盈利能力方面都是巨头。而UGC显然规模更大,尤其是在全球范围内。这里更重要的第三点是我们国家如何进行反垄断。特朗普希望参与其中。他说他会非常积极地参与,你知道,作为一个80岁的人,他参与所有事情。为什么不参与这个呢?他不应该参与。把这个放在一边。”

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>> The more important Third thing here is how we do antitrust in the country. Trump wants to be involved in this. He said he's going to be very involved in it, you know, which as an 80-year-old, he's involved in everything. Why not be involved in this? He shouldn't be. Put that aside.

他接着说:“我认为我们需要有一种预审(prevet)这些交易的方式,然后让出价最高者获胜。我不知道这个概念是如何变得如此复杂的,但Ellison家族在这里有点妥协了特朗普。我想这就是为什么特朗普对Ted Sarandos大加赞扬的原因。我不知道你是否看到了他关于Sacks的那些引文,但他当时赞扬Ted Sarandos是个天才,Netflix有多么了不起。”

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>> I think we need to have a way to prevet these and then just let the highest bidder win. I don't know how this concept is getting convoluted, but the Ellison's are compromising Trump a bit here. I think that's why Trump gave a lot of shine to Ted Sarandos. I don't know if you saw his quotes about that sachs, but he was praising what a genius Ted Sarandos is and how amazing Netflix is.

他补充道:“Ellison家族站出来,你知道,基本上说他们已经搞定了这个,你知道,他们将基本上拥有内部优势,我认为这是我提出的问题之一,我们应该对这些大型交易进行预审,因为我们希望这个国家的并购(M&A)充满活力。在Lena Khan的愤怒之后,我们希望有更多的并购。”

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>> The Ellison's coming out and, you know, basically saying that they've got this in and, you know, they're going to basically have the inside track here, I think is one of the issues I propose we have a prevetting of these large deals because we want M&A to be vibrant in this country. We want more M&A after the wrath of Lena Khan.

他继续说:“所以我想你应该能够预审,Chamath。你应该能够去找政府说:‘嘿,我们正在考虑出售这项资产,无论它是什么,你知道,比如以前的YouTube。有没有人不能参与这次拍卖?’然后让FTC(Federal Trade Commission: 联邦贸易委员会)预审其中一些,然后出价最高者似乎符合股东的最佳利益。”

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>> So I think you should be able to prevet chimoth. You should be able to go to the government and say, "Hey, we're considering selling this asset, whatever it happens to be, you know, YouTube back in the day. Is there anybody who's not able to participate in this auction and then just have the FTC prevet some of these and then highest bidder seems like what's best interest in the best interest of shareholders." So

Chamath反驳说:“那种做法是站不住脚的。原因在于。”

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>> kind of that's untenable. And the reason why

Jason说:“是啊,解释一下。”

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>> Yeah, explain.

Chamath说:“在美国,反垄断问题可能来自任何数量的组织。这只是你必须应对的复杂性的一部分,因为如果你在任何其他国家做生意,所有这些其他国家都有权发表意见。”

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>> You have multiple facets of antitrust that can come up from any number of organizations in the United States. And that's just but one part of the complexities you have to navigate because if you do business in any other country, all of these other countries are in a position to opine.

Jason:“哦,当然。”

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>> Oh, sure.

Chamath继续说:“如果你考虑在中国进行一笔交易,而另一项资产也在中国,它可能会拖延很长时间,甚至永远不会发生,原因与合并的产业逻辑无关。所以我认为你不能预审这些事情,因为它不可扩展,而且我认为政府会感到沮丧,因为门外会有成千上万的人。他们将没有时间做其他事情。他们必须治理。”

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>> If you think about doing a deal where you're in China and that other asset is in China, it can slow down for a very, very, very long time and never happen for reasons that have nothing to do with the industrial logic of the merger. So I don't think you can prevet these things because it's not scalable and I think the government would get frustrated because you'd have a thousand people outside the door. They'd have no time to do anything else. They have to govern.

他接着说:“我们需要弄清楚是否允许的另一件事是这些交易是如何完成的。我唯一要指出的是,今年迄今为止发生的两笔最大的交易,我注意到的是,它们都是以总资产出售的方式进行的,以规避反垄断。”

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>> The different thing that we have to figure out whether is allowed is how these deals are getting done. The only thing that I would observe is the two biggest transactions that have happened thus far this year that I've taken note of happened as total raw asset sales to work around antitrust.

他举例说:“最好的例子是Meta和Scale AI。好吧,我会说这个东西值300亿美元。我会给你150亿美元现金,但我实际上在做什么?我正在剥离这些资产,这样我就不必提交HSR文件(Hart-Scott-Rodino filing: 哈特-斯科特-罗迪诺法案备案,美国反垄断法要求大型并购交易需向联邦政府提交的预通知)。所以,我想未来是,如果政府必须发表意见,不仅是美国,还有欧洲人、中国人。”

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>> The best example was Meta and Scale AI. Okay, I'll say this thing is worth 30 billion. I'll give you 15 billion in cash, but what am I really doing? I'm carving out these assets so that I don't have to file even an HSR filing. So, I think the future is that if the government has to have an opinion, not just America, but the Europeans, the Chinese,

他继续说:“取而代之的是,那些非常聪明的律师,他们每年赚取1000万、2000万、3000万美元,现在的NBA薪水,他们会找到规避方法。他们已经为大型科技公司做到了,我认为这会蔓延到其他行业。你有点像在创造这些边界条件,我认为反垄断的概念将是一个非常困难的事情,因为如果企业想继续经营,你就不会进行这些传统交易。”

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>> what's going to happen instead is that very smart lawyers who get paid, you know, 10, 20, $30 million a year, the NBA salaries now, they're going to find workarounds. they've already done so for big tech and I think it'll spill over to other industries. You're kind of like creating these boundary conditions where I think the concept of antitrust is going to be a very difficult thing because if businesses want to be in business, you're not going to do these traditional deals.

他总结道:“正如David所说,派拉蒙仅仅说‘我们会全盘接手’,这表明了对竞争威胁不存在的巨大信心。因为他们让自己受到了一定程度的审查,如果他们认为有任何一丝关于竞争性反垄断的合理论据,他们就不会这样做。”

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>> as David said, an enormous sign of confidence about how there isn't going to be a competitive threat for Paramount to just say, "We'll take the whole thing." Because they're subjecting themselves to a level of scrutiny that they wouldn't if they felt there was any shred of a good argument for competitive antitrust.

Jason:“是啊。”

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>> Yeah.

David Sacks说:“我只是想回应一下对特朗普总统的无端攻击。”

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>> I just want to um address the gratuitous potshot at President Trump.

Jason:“哪一个?”

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>> Which one?

David Sacks:“嗯,你声称他不应该参与,以及如果总统不参与,反垄断会更好。你可能还记得,西奥多·罗斯福(Teddy Roosevelt)被称为‘托拉斯破坏者’,因为他指示司法部根据《谢尔曼法案》(Sherman Act: 美国第一部反垄断法)起诉了45家公司,包括整个北方证券公司。他的继任者,威廉·霍华德·塔夫脱(William Howard Taft)、伍德罗·威尔逊(Woodrow Wilson)、富兰克林·罗斯福(FDR),他们在利用反垄断方面同样积极。总之,许多总统都参与了并购和反垄断行动。所以,这并不那么不寻常。”

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>> Well, your claim that he shouldn't get involved and somehow antitrust is better if the presidents don't get involved. You may remember that Teddy Roosevelt was known as the trustbuster because he directed the DOJ to sue 45 companies under the Sherman Act, including the whole Northern Securities Company. His successors, William Howard Taft, Woodro Wilson, FDR, they were just as aggressive using antitrust. Anyway, a lot of presidents have gotten involved in mergers and antitrust actions. So, it's just not that unusual.

Jason:“是啊,我只是查了一下,由Grok提供。”

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>> Yeah, I just check brought to you by Grock.

Chamath:“哦,是啊。那太棒了。嗯,是啊。我们需要在节目中加入Grok事实核查环节。”

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>> Oh, yeah. That's great. Um, yeah. We need to have like a Grock fact check part of the show.

Jason:“我们需要Grok事实核查。”

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>> We We need a Grock fact check.

Chamath说:“不,我会说特朗普参与其中是有问题的,因为Ellison家族也是特朗普的主要支持者,并承诺购买TikTok。现在,你有一个家庭,他们是特朗普的主要支持者,大量的捐助者,基本上在TikTok交易中获得了内部消息,现在在与Netflix达成交易后,他们能够游说特朗普,让他们收购CBS和CNN。”

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>> No, the reason I would say it's problematic for Trump to get involved in it is because the Ellison's have also been major supporters of Trump and made commitments for buying Tik Tok. Now you have one family who is a major supporter of Trump, massive donators basically getting the inside line on Tik Tok and now after a deal has been closed with Netflix being able to lobby to get Trump to let them buy CBS and CNN.

他继续说:“所以如果我们开始思考Ellison家族对特朗普政府的影响,无论是利益交换(quid pro quo)还是利益交换的表象,特朗普最好还是置身事外,因为我们已经有TikTok的交易了。现在他们拥有CBS,而且他们还将拥有CNN。对于一个家族来说,这是大量的整合。”

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>> So if we start thinking about the influence that Ellison, the Ellison family is having on the Trump administration, whether it's quidd proquo or it's the appearance of quid proquo, it's best for Trump to stay out of it because already we have the tick tock deal. Now CBS they own and they're going to own CNN. This is a lot of consolidation for one family to have.

Tucker Carlson反驳说:“那是转移视线。CBS和CNN,只有九个人看这两个频道。所以这些频道无关紧要。那些人必须从头开始重建这些东西。第一。”

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>> That's a red herring. Between CBS and CNN, nine people watch those two channels. So those channels are irrelevant. Those guys have to rebuild these things from scratch. Number one.

他继续说:“第二,它不会激励或阻止30亿人使用和观看这些内容。谁拥有这项资产,这些人并不知道。CBS的收视率没有因为某个人拥有它而上升或下降。没有人知道TikTok的CEO是谁。TikTok要么好,要么不好。所以,我只想提醒大家,这就像派对上的闲聊。你去那里,谈论它,说:‘哦,天哪,太糟糕了。太棒了。’你却忽略了一个基本事实,那就是所有权不会改变人类使用好产品和淘汰产品的动机。”

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>> And number two, it doesn't incentivize or disincentivize 3 billion humans from using and watching that content. Who owns that asset is not known to any of these people. CBS did not go up and down because, you know, one person owned it versus another. Nobody knows who the CEO of Tik Tok is. It's Tik Tok is either good or not good. And so, I would just keep in mind that this is something it's like the party circuit babble. Like you go there and you talk about it like, "Oh my god, it's so bad. It's so good." And you miss the basic fact that nothing about the ownership changes the human incentive to use a good product and to disqualify a product.

Jason说:“也许我会持相反意见。仍然有数百万人观看这些节目,而且很明显,数百万人观看这个节目是因为它很好。不,不。最终,人们会被优秀的产品吸引。这一点毫无疑问。但主要新闻资产CBS的整合,以及TikTok和CNN的影响力是不可否认的。这简直是不可否认的。”

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>> Maybe I would take the other side of it. There's still millions of people watching this and it's pretty clear that millions of people watch this show because it's good. No, no. Ultimately, people are people are going to be drawn to great products. There's no doubt about that. But consolidation of the major news assets CBS and the influence of Tik Tok and the influence of CNN is undeniable. That is just undeniable.

Tucker Carlson:“不可否认什么?”

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>> Undeniable to undeniable for what?

Jason:“就是现实。美国人的现实。不,不是我的现实。你可以尝试侮辱我。这不是重点,在一家公司里。”

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>> Just reality. Reality Americans. No, not my reality. You can try and insult me. That's not the point here in one company.

Tucker Carlson:“不,这不是我的现实。那不是我获取新闻的地方。”

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>> No, it's not my reality. That's not where I get my news from.

Jason:“数百万人不看CBS和CNN。这不是真的。”

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>> Millions of people don't watch CBS and CNN. It's not true.

Tucker Carlson:“实际上,只有400万人观看。所以,是的,从技术上讲是数百万人。”

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>> Literally, it's 4 million people who watch it. So yes, it is technically millions.

Jason:“如果你把一年内的所有观看量都加起来,重复计算的话,CNN最受欢迎、运营最好、最受欢迎的节目是什么?”

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>> If you're adding it all up over what, a year, dduplicated, like what is what is CNN's most qualified, bestrun, most popular show?

Tucker Carlson:“好吧。”

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>> Okay.

Jason:“我不知道,因为我没有。我甚至没有有线电视。”

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>> Uh on the network or on the news? I don't know cuz I don't have it. I don't even have cable.

Tucker Carlson:“是啊,我知道。你甚至不为——你让你朋友偷《纽约时报》的文章。”

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>> Yeah, I know. And you don't even pay for you asked your friends to steal New York Times articles.

Jason:“每个人都会——我是领导者。”

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>> Everybody will I am the lead.

主持人说:“你来做最后的总结。作为曾经身处这个巨兽内部的人,特朗普应该参与这些并购吗?是或否?Tucker?”

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>> You get the final word. Having lived inside the beast, should Trump be involved in these mergers and acquisitions? Yes or no? Chuck or call?

Tucker Carlson回答:“嗯,你阻止不了他,所以这不重要。我们应该担心的是,不是媒体的垄断权力。而是科技平台的审查制度。回到那种状态。那才是扼杀创造力和思想多样性的地方。把整个国家重新关进去年11月才逃脱的精神监狱。那才是威胁。审查YouTube、X、Instagram。”

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>> Well, you're not going to stop him, so it doesn't matter. What should we be concerned about is not media monopoly power. It's censorship of the tech platforms. A return to that. That is where you destroy creativity and diversity of thought. put the entire nation into the mental prison from which it escaped last November. That's that is the threat. Censoring YouTube x Instagram

他总结道:“我只是觉得我们应该关注这一点。”

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>> and I I just think we should be focused on that.

主持人问:“你对Bari Weiss接管CBS新闻有什么看法?我不确定你是否评论过我。”

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>> And what's your take on Barry Weiss taking over CBS News? I'm not sure if you've commented on me.

Tucker Carlson回答:“我是说,我有点印象深刻。我是说,你知道,嘲笑Bari Weiss愚蠢或其他什么很容易,这很公平,但那。”

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>> I mean, I'm kind of impressed. I mean, I you know, it's easy to make fun of Barry Weiss for being dumb or whatever, which is fair, but it's

他继续说:“你必须以反向图像来看待它,它是负面的。这就像你拥有的那些才能,你很棒,我也会说我同意这一点。我认为她很有魅力。她不知疲倦,精力充沛。我不知道这是否仍然重要。我们过分看重智商。哦,一个人太聪明了,你知道吗?实际上这不重要。像有魅力、结交朋友、你知道,不知疲倦地推动议程,那真的有效。”

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>> you have to sort of look at it in reverse image and it's negative. It's like with those talents you got where you're amazing and I will say I agree with that. I think that she's charming. She's tireless, energetic. I don't know that still matters. Like we we overvalue IQ. Oh, a person's so smart, you know? It actually doesn't matter. Like being charming, meeting people, you know, pushing an agenda tirelessly, like that that really works.

他总结道:“最终,她得到的奖品不值得拥有。我是说,你愿意经营CBS新闻吗?就它现在这个样子?不,说真的。那是折磨。他们付你再多钱也不够。”

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>> And in the end, the prize she got is not worth having. Like I how would you like to run CBS news such as it is? No, for real. That's torture. They couldn't pay you enough.

Jason问:“如果你拥有CNN,你会怎么做?他们把它放在你的膝上,说你被迫担任CEO十年。你会怎么做?”

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>> What would you do if you had CNN? They put it in your laper and they say you're forced to be CEO of it for the next 10 years. What would you do?

Tucker Carlson:“嗯,实际上,我进行过那次对话。”

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>> Well, actually, I've had that conversation.

另一位主持人开玩笑说:“稍微更相关一点。如果你经营我儿子的校报,你会怎么做?因为这需要的技能差不多。”

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>> Slightly more relevant. What would you do if you ran my son's school newspaper? Because it's about the same skill.

Tucker Carlson:“哦,我会变得激进。”

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>> Oh, I'd get radical.

Jason:“实际上,Tucker有一个有趣的答案。”

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>> Actually, Tucker had an interesting answer.

Chamath:“还有其他好问题吗?”

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>> Any other good questions?

Jason:“不,这是一个很棒的问题。Tucker正要回答。谢谢你打断他,Chamath。”

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>> No, it's a great question. Tucker was about to answer it. Thanks for stepping on it, Jamai.

Tucker Carlson说:“CNN的问题。我是说,我在那里待了将近十年,所以我感觉我很熟悉它。”

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>> The CNN question. I mean, I spent almost 10 years there, so I I feel like I'm familiar with it.

Jason:“是啊。”

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>> Yeah.

Tucker Carlson:“我,你知道,我实际上和某人有过这样的对话,他说:‘我们应该买下CNN。你应该经营它。’所以我花了一个晚上思考这个问题,但根本不可能。我是说,什么?首先,我同意Chamath的看法。我是说,我一生中订阅过《纽约时报》、《华盛顿邮报》和《纽约客》,但现在我不再订阅了,因为它们完全无关紧要。它们毫无意义。它们没有对任何人说话。而且它们有点陈旧。”

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>> I have, you know, I actually had this conversation with someone was like, "We should buy CNN. You should run it." And I So, I had caused to spend like an evening thinking about it and no way. I mean, what? First of all, I'm with Chimath. Like, I don't have a New York Times or Washington Post or New Yorker subscription anymore after a lifetime of having all three because they're totally irrelevant. They mean nothing. They're speaking to no one. And there's a kind of musty.

他接着说:“这就像回到你童年的家,看到你的卧室真的很小,油漆实际上是青绿色的,还有那些80年代的悲伤海报仍然在那里。这令人沮丧。我只会把它关掉,然后建立一些新的东西。”

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>> It's like going back to your childhood home and seeing that your bedroom was really small and like the paint was actually turquoise and all these kind of sad posters from the '8s are still there. It's depressing. Like I would just shut it down and and build something new.

Jason:“好吧,把它关掉。”

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>> Okay, shut it down.

Chamath说:“Jason,我能给你一个关于《纽约时报》的思维实验吗?我认为《纽约时报》值得谈论的一点是,我认为他们在未来五年内会做出一些非常令人发指和越界的事情,类似于某种谎言或某种被证明完全错误的声明,他们会被起诉。”

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>> Jason, can I give you my one thought exercise about the New York Times? The one thing that I think is worth talking about the New York Times is I think they will in the next five years do something so egregious and over the line akin to some sort of liel or some sort of statement that has turned out to be completely false, they will get sued.

他继续说:“我希望当和解发生时,那个人会说:‘我不想得到40亿美元。我希望这笔钱变成一个非营利组织和一个公共信托。’然后把它关闭。有趣。这有点像福克斯(Fox)发生的事情,他们当时达成了7亿或8亿美元的和解,那是最大的一笔。”

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>> And I hope when that settlement happens, the person says, "I do not want to get paid the $4 billion. I want this to be turned in into a nonprofit and into a public trust." And then shuts it down. Interesting. That's kind of what happened with Fox when they did their 700 $800 million settlement, the largest one.

Jason说:“但下一个,Chamath,下一个会更高。不会是那个规模,因为你现在有了那个先例。这是一个非常重要的先例,关于谎言和歪曲事实的规模。而且只会越来越高。这是一个单向棘轮。”

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>> But the next one, Jason, the next one will go up. It won't be that scale because you've had now that that precedent. That's a very important precedent about the scale of lying and misrepresenting things. And it only goes up from here. This is a one-way ratchet.

David Sacks反驳说:“是啊,你错得不能再离谱了。呃,这绝对不会发生。他们有控制措施,但这只是一个美好的幻想。顺便说一句,他们也做得非常出色。当他们转向订阅模式时,他们现在有1200万付费订阅用户。他们客观上做得非常出色,并且比任何其他新闻机构都更好地解决了问题。”

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>> Yeah, you couldn't be more wrong about that. Uh it's definitely not going to happen. They have controls in place, but it's a nice fantasy. They're also crushing it. By the way, when they moved to subscriptions, they have 12 million paid subscribers now. They are objectively crushing it and figured it out better than any other news organization.

他总结道:“无论我们是否同意他们的内容和质量,他们客观上都是美国最成功的。好了,说到成功地掌控对话,我们必须谈谈Nick Fuentes,Tucker,你刚刚在他的播客上采访了他。你为他提供了平台。我在这里开玩笑,你为他提供了平台。我创造了他。”

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>> Whether we agree or disagree with, you know, their content and the quality of it, they are the most successful objectively here in America. All right, speaking of successful in taking over the dialogue, we got to talk about Nick Fentes, who you just had on your podcast, Tucker. You platformed him. Being facitious here, you platformed him. I I created him.

Nick Fuentes现象与身份政治

Jason说:“基本上,这是一个有趣的讨论。对于那些不知道Nick Fuentes,一直生活在石头底下的人来说。他是一个27岁的白人民族主义者,在Rumble上有一个非常受欢迎的节目,大约有50万订阅者,当你仔细想想,这其实并不算多。他的追随者自称‘Gropers’,在过去六个月里他获得了数十万粉丝。他正处于一个相当火热的时期,而且他有很多争议性观点。”

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>> Basically, it's an interesting discussion. For those of you who don't know, Nick Fuentes and have been living under a rock. He's a 27year-old white nationalist with a very popular show on Rumble, about 500,000 subscribers, which isn't actually that big when you think about it. His followers call themselves Gropers, and he's gained hundreds of thousands over the past six months. He's on quite a heater, and uh he's got a bunch of controversial opinions.

他继续说:“我只引用他的话。这与我对他本人的看法无关。Piers Morgan问他是否认为自己是种族主义者。他说:‘完全是,我认为每个人,如果我们诚实的话,都是种族主义者。唯一不是种族主义者或者假装不是种族主义者的人是白人,这对他们不利。’关于女性,Piers问Nick他是否是同性恋。Nick说:‘不,但我要说女性很难相处。’Piers接着问:‘你认为她们应该有投票权吗?’Nick说:‘我不认为。’绝对不。关于以色列,Fuentes对美国他所谓的‘有组织的犹太人’非常批评。”

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>> I'll just give you the quotes. This is nothing to do with my opinion on him. He was asked by Piers Morgan if he described himself as a racist. And he said, "Totally, I think everybody, if we're being honest, is racist. The only people that aren't racist or pretend not to be are white people to their detriment on women." Piers asked Nick if he was gay. Nick said, "No, but I will say women are very difficult to be around." Piers uh then asked, "And do you think they should have the right to vote?" Nick said, "I do not." Absolutely not. On Israel, Fuentes is very critical and what he calls organized jewelry in America.

他补充道:“所以你采访了他。有几种不同的看法,但你很好地讲述了他的起源故事。他曾是PragerU的一部分。他有一个非常活跃的粉丝群。为什么他在这个时刻引起共鸣?也许你可以向观众解释一下。MAGA(Make America Great Again)与‘美国优先’(America First),‘美国唯一’(America Only),我认为这些都是‘美国优先’的一部分,但你来告诉我们,因为我认为这些现在只是术语。它们不像政党或其他什么。”

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>> So now you interviewed him. Couple of different ways to take this, but you did a good job of telling his origin story. He was part of Prageru. He's got this really activated base. Why is he resonating at this moment in time? And maybe you could explain to the audience. MAGA versus America first, America Only, which I think are part of America First, but you you you tell us because I think these are just terms right now. They're not like political parties or anything.

Tucker Carlson回答:“嗯,关于这些术语的含义存在一场斗争。这非常丑陋,但也可能是必要的,因为你需要定义术语。我想说,当你思考你的人生应该做什么时,这是你首先要做的事情。所以,嗯,至于Fuentes,他的起源故事更精确一些,我会长话短说,但他作为波士顿大学(BEu)新生时发了一条推文,相当温和地批评国会为外国以色列效力。”

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>> Well, there's a struggle over what those terms mean. It's very ugly and probably necessary because you need to define terms. Like that's the first thing you do, I would say, when you think through what you should be doing with your life, for example. So, um, as for Fuentes, his origin story is a little more precise, and I'll keep it short, but he tweeted something as a freshman at BEu, critical of, pretty mildly critical of the Congress for doing the bidding of this foreign country, Israel.

他继续说:“不知何故,Ben Shapiro看到了,并攻击他,试图让他被共和党俱乐部开除,并确保他无法在某个保守组织获得实习机会。我不是在攻击Ben Shapiro,但这告诉你试图压制人们、压制对话会带来什么后果。它们不会消失。它们只会滋生在黑暗中,有时会变得非常丑陋。所以Fuentes,除了其他方面,首先,Fuentes说了很多真话。这就是他受欢迎的原因。他很有趣。呃,他很聪明。”

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>> And somehow Ben Shapiro saw that and attacked him and tried to get him kicked out of his Republican club and made sure he didn't get an internship with some conservative organization. And I'm not attacking Ben Shapiro, but that kind of tells you what attempts to shut people down, to shut conversations down result in. They don't go away. They just fester in the darkness and they can sometimes become really ugly. So what Fuentes is, among other Well, first of all, Fentes is saying a lot of true things. That's why he's popular. He's funny. Uh he's smart.

Jason:“但是。”

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>> But

Tucker Carlson:“他是个优秀的播音员。但在某种宏观层面上,Fuentes令人不安,因为他的平台表达了一种已经占据所有政治话语的东西,那就是身份政治、部落主义。我只是反对这一点。我一直都会反对。我只是认为我们要么受普遍原则的管辖,要么受黑手党的管辖。这是我们的选择。”

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>> he's a good Yeah, he's a great broadcaster. But Fuentes on some macro level is troubling because he his platform is an expression of something that has kind of taken over all political discourse which is identity politics, tribalism. And I'm just opposed to that. I period and always will be. And I I just think that we're governed by universal principles or we're governed by the mafia. Those are our choices.

他接着说:“所以,你知道,我们的原则必须适用于每一个人,或者至少是每一个美国公民。句号。否则它们就不是原则。嗯,它们只是暴政的借口。所以Fuentes,你知道,有一种不同类型的身份政治,但有各种各样的身份政治。我们在拜登执政期间就生活在其中。实际上,我一生中大部分时间都以这样或那样的形式生活在其中。”

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>> And so you you know our principles have to apply to every human being or certainly every American citizen. Period. or they're not principles. Um they're just a justification uh for tyranny. So Fuentes, you know, has a different kind of identity politics, but there are all kinds of different identity politics. We we lived under it during the Biden years. We've lived under it most of my life actually in one form or another.

他总结道:“所以如果说有什么的话,Fuentes提醒我们,我们必须提出某种原则,让每个美国人都能认同某种‘国家认同’。这不是一个贬义词。这实际上是防止国家解体所必需的,而国家正在解体。那么,所有3.5亿美国人有什么共同之处呢?这就是我们需要进行的对话。如果缺乏这种对话,那么我们就会看到很多人跳出来说,好吧,所有白人在这里,所有黑人,或者犹太人,或者其他什么。这行不通。这会导致暴力。每个人都知道这一点。所以现在可能是弄清楚我们所有人有什么共同之处的好时机。”

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>> And so if anything, Fuentes reminds us that we have to come up with some kind of principle that every American can ascribe to something called national identity. That is not a dirty phrase. that's actually necessary to keep the country from disintegrating, comma, which it is. So like what does every American, all 350 million have in common with every other? And that's the conversation we need to have. And in its absence, then we get a lot of people popping up and being like, well, all white people over here and all black people or Jewish people or whatever. That's not going to work. That will end in violence. Everyone knows that. And so now is probably a pretty good time to figure out what we all have in common.

他继续说:“我没有为他提供平台。首先,‘平台’不是一个动词,任何说它是动词的人,我想说,可能都与我的核心利益和糟糕的语言习惯相悖。”

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>> I didn't platform him. I in first of all platform is not a verb and anyone who says it is a verb is probably opposed to my core interests I would say and bad language.

他补充道:“是啊。我采访了他,就像采访所有人一样,你知道的,我普遍认为你应该让人说出他们的想法,然后其他人可以决定他们是否是真心的,他们是否在说谎或真诚,以及他们对那个人所说的话有什么看法。但那是我的工作。我不为此感到羞耻,尽管有很多人试图让我为此感到羞耻。我确实不同意Fuentes关于普遍原则的问题。”

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>> Yeah. I interviewed him like interview everybody you know and my general belief is you should let people say what they think and others can decide whether they mean it or not whether they're being false or sincere and and what they think of what the person is saying. But that's that's my job. I'm not ashamed of it despite a lot of efforts to make me ashamed of it. I do disagree with Fuentes on the question of universal principles.

他接着说:“我想首先,我的宗教信仰反对仇恨任何群体,我告诉了他这一点。但我没有做很多其他姿态,旨在让我看起来像个好人。Piers不幸地落入了那个陷阱,作为一个老年人,你知道,‘难道你不是坏人吗?’这就像,好吧,我甚至不完全不同意其中一些,但你并没有提升自己。你看起来像个脱节的傻瓜。那正是Piers Morgan等待的陷阱。”

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>> I think it's im well first of all it's against my religion to hate any group and I told him that. But I didn't do a lot of other posturing designed to make me seem like you know the good person. Peers unfortunately fell into that trap as an older man you know well isn't IT YOU ARE BAD and it's like okay I don't even disagree with some of that but you don't elevate yourself. you look like an outofouch buffoon. And that's exactly the trap that was awaiting Piers Morgan.

他总结道:“如果你看了那次采访,如果你看了对它的反应,那并没有以任何方式贬低Nick Fuentes。它提升了Nick Fuentes。真正贬低Nick Fuentes的是直接问他问题,特别是关于女性的问题。不是问你是否和任何人发生过性关系,而是问你为什么对女性如此生气?你知道,让人们多说话会揭示他们是谁。这是真的。抱歉。”

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>> And if you watch that interview and if you watch the reaction to it, that did not diminish Nick Fuentes in any way. It enhanced Nick Fuentes. What diminishes Nick Fuentes is asking him straightforward questions, particularly about women. Not have you had sex with anybody, but like why are you so mad at women? And that, you know, letting people talk a lot reveals who they are. That's just true. Sorry.

Jason问:“如果你要列出他与年轻人,以及这个新兴的‘美国优先’运动产生共鸣的两三个主要原因,你会怎么说?我想你现在最好能定义一下‘美国优先’运动,尽管你不是它的领导者,但你曾说过这个概念与你产生共鸣。所以也许说说为什么Fuentes会产生共鸣,以及‘美国优先’与MAGA有什么区别。解释一下。”

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>> If you were to give the top two or three reasons why he's resonating with it seems like young men and this America this burgeoning American first movement which I guess it would be good for you to define right now as best you can recognizing you're not the leader of it but you have said I think uh you this uh concept is you know uh resonates with you so maybe why talk why is Fentes resonating and what is America first versus MAGA. Like explain that

Tucker Carlson回答:“就按相反顺序来说吧。我是说,我会说MAGA的前提是‘美国优先’,但我不会说‘美国优先’是一场运动。我会说它是治理政府唯一正当的理由。这非常简单。你的民主共和国政府应该广义上代表其公民行事。我是说,这并不比这更复杂。它没有任何险恶之处。事实上,任何其他做法都是险恶的,因为那是不合法的。”

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>> just in in reverse order. I mean, I would argue that the the premise of MAGA is America first, but I wouldn't say that America first is a movement. I would say it's the only legitimate reason to run a government. And it's very simple. The the government of your democratic republic ought to act in broad terms on behalf of its own citizens. I mean, it's it's not more complicated than that. There's nothing sinister about it. In fact, anything other than that is sinister because it's illegitimate.

他接着问:“你还有什么其他理由来经营一个民主共和国呢?”

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>> For what other reason would you run a a Democratic Republic and

Jason:“叛国?”

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>> treasonous?

Tucker Carlson:“实际上没有。所以当然这必须是美国。如果这个名字让你不舒服,你可以想一个新名字。但这个想法必须是,我们拥有政府的原因,否则我们就必须废除政府,因为没有其他理由拥有政府。好吧。所以B,他为什么受欢迎?因为他说了那些话。但更广义地说,因为他 defiant(反抗)。他有一种‘去你的,老兄。我不能说那个。好吧,看着吧。我会说。’他很搞笑。”

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>> There there isn't one actually. So of course this has to be an America. You could think of a new name for it if that name makes you uncomfortable. But the idea has to be the reason we have a government or else we have to get rid of the government because there's no other justification for having a government. Okay. So a b why is he popular? Because he says that. But I would say more broadly because he's defiant. There's a kind of up yours, buddy. I can't say that. Okay, watch this. I will. He's hilarious.

他继续说:“他看起来坚定而强大。我不认为他是。他甚至没有结婚。所以,如果你害怕女孩,我认为你是个懦夫。这是我的个人看法。但他的反抗中,人们看到了非常吸引人的东西。为什么不呢?你知道,这些孩子在一个被指责和被告知他们因为出生方式而很糟糕的世界中长大。而Nick Fuentes只是对那些人竖起中指,说‘去你的’。谁会不喜欢那样呢?当然人们喜欢那样。”

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>> He seems steadfast and strong. I I don't think he is. He's not even married. So, like, if you're afraid of girls, I think you're a wuss. That's my personal view. But there is a But in his defiance, people see something really appealing. Why wouldn't they? You know, you know, these are kids who've grown up in a world of hectoring and telling them they're bad because of how they were born. And Nick Fuentes is just raising the middle finger to the people saying that and saying up yours. And who wouldn't love that? Of course people love that.

Jason:“‘美国优先’的第二部分是‘美国唯一’。我想那意味着。”

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>> Second piece is of the America first is America only. And I guess that means

Tucker Carlson:“我不知道那是什么意思。就是这样。不,当然是。看,我们当然会与他人合作。这是全球化经济的定义。你知道,也许它不应该这样,但它就是这样。但‘美国唯一’这个论点,如果它不是一个真正的论点,那它就像一个旨在削弱主要论点的反口号,它并没有真正的意义。”

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>> I don't know what that means. That's it. No, of course it's Look, we we work in concert with others by definition. It's a globalized economy. You know, maybe it shouldn't be, but it is. But America only that argument to the extent it's not really an argument. That's like a counter slogan designed to undercut the main argument isn't doesn't really mean.

他继续说:“没有人争论那个。它只是说,看,美国政府应该代表其公民行事。对于那些不相信这一点的人,他们不好意思解释为什么不相信,因为没有理由不相信,他们会说:‘嗯,你只是‘美国唯一’。’不,政府应该这样做。政府的每个部门都应该把这一点放在首位。这如何帮助那些为此付费的人,以谁的名义完成的?再次强调,甚至称之为一场运动都让我抓狂,因为与什么相比呢?某种令人毛骨悚然的秘密寡头政治,我们一生中大部分时间都生活在这种政治下。那太糟糕了。”

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>> No one is arguing that. It's just saying look the US government ought to act on behalf of its own citizens. To which people who don't believe that who are embarrassed to explain why they don't believe that because there's no justification for not believing that are like well you're you're America only. No, the government should do that. Every part of the government should have that foremost in mind. How does this help the people who pay for this in whose name it's done? Like again, even calling it a movement drives me bonkers because compared to what? Some sort of creepy secretive oligarchy, which we've had most of my life. Like that's just bad.

他总结道:“没有办法为之辩护。我们可以在‘美国优先’的框架内争论如何实现‘美国优先’。那是一个完全合理的争论。而且对此有各种不同的想法。但动机应该是什么,目标应该是什么,没有争议。它必须主要是为了美国公民。如果他们是附带受益者,那太棒了。我一点也不反对。如果可以的话,让我们帮助所有人。但重点是帮助拥有这个国家的人民,即美国公民,他们是美国的股东。没有其他重点,不是吗?”

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>> There's no way to defend that. And we can argue within the framework of America first how to put America first. That's a totally legitimate argument. And there are all kinds of different thoughts about that. But what the motive should be, the goal should be, there's no debate. It has to be for American citizens primarily. If they're, you know, ancillary beneficiaries, that's great. Not against that at all. Let's help everyone if we can. But the point is to help the people who own the country, the shareholders of the United States who are American citizens. There's no other point, is there?

Jason说:“Chamath,让我从‘美国优先’运动、‘美国唯一’运动的角度来谈谈这个问题,将其视为对特朗普政府第一年的反应,许多共和党人认为那一年更多地惠及了科技寡头、亿万富翁、国际问题,而不是工薪阶层。你已经开始发推文,并公开表示,嘿,也许特朗普政府的第二年,我们必须重新关注这些事情。请为我们和观众阐述一下。”

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>> Chamat, let me bring you in on this from the angle of the America first movement, America only movement as a reaction to the first year of the Trump administration feeling to many people in the Republican party as benefiting maybe tech oligarchs, billionaires, uh, international issues more than the working man. you have started to tweet a little bit and become vocal about, hey, maybe year two of the Trump administration, we got to get refocused on some of these things. Unpack that for us in the audience.

Chamath回答:“嗯,我能先对Fuentes提出我的反馈吗?”

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>> Well, can I can I offer my feedback on Fuentes first?

Jason:“当然。是的。如果你愿意,就谈Fuentes。”

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>> Of course. Yes. Go with Fuentes if you like.

Chamath说:“我想提出几点。第一点是,正如Tucker所说,他很有魅力。我认为他很有趣,而且他能够围绕许多敏感话题进行煽动,并说出具有冲击力的话。我认为在这一点上,他实际上就像一个现代的‘冲击播音员’(shock jock)。他就像一个年轻的Howard Stern。他是这个时代的Howard Stern。”

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>> There's a couple points I want to make. The first is that he is, as Tucker said, charismatic. I think he's funny and I think that he can animate around a lot of touchy subjects and say things that have shock value. And I think in that what he is is actually like a modern shock jock. He's like a younger Howard Stern. He's the Howard Stern of this era.

他继续说:“就像Howard Stern在那个时代一样,许多人无法收听,因为他80%的时间可能还行,然后就会完全脱轨,你会觉得,天哪,这个人是刻薄、疯狂、疯癫的某种组合,然后你还会抛出所有这些其他形容词。所以这是第一点。”

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>> the way that Howard Stern was in that era unlistenable to so many people because he would be kind of okay for 80% of the time and then go totally off the rails and you think, man, this guy is some combination of mean, nuts, crazy, and then you throw out all these other adjectives. So that's point number one.

他补充道:“第二点是,确实,你让他说话的时间越长,你就越了解他的想法,因此产品的质量将决定采纳的规模,而现在我认为媒体再次非常草率,没有做好他们的工作,那就是——Nick,你可以把这个放出来——过去几个月发生的事情有很多研究。”

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>> Point number two is it is true that the longer you allow him to speak actually the more you understand what he thinks and as a result the quality of the product will dictate the scale of adoption and now this is where I think the media yet again has been very sloppy and doesn't do their work which is and Nick you can throw this up there's been a lot of research on what has been happening in the last few months and the bottom line takeaway in the last few months is that there is coordinated effort of individual largely unverified accounts in social media.

他接着说:“过去几个月的核心结论是,社交媒体上存在大量未经核实的个人账户的协同努力。它们通常来自印度、巴基斯坦、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、尼日利亚。并且存在一个协调的放大过程,正在围绕这些内容发生。在这张你看到的图表中,它只是比较了Nick在最初30分钟内获得的关注,与像Elon这样的人在发布后最初30分钟内获得的关注。”

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>> They typically emanate from India, Pakistan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Nigeria. And there is a coordinated amplification process that is happening around this content. And in this chart that you're seeing, it's just a comparison of Nick in the first 30 minutes to what people like Elon get in the first 30 minutes of him posting.

他继续说:“现在,这为什么如此重要呢?你开始看到这种巨大的差异,即使你拥有世界上最具病毒性的人物和账户,即X上的Elon Musk。你看到的是他在内容创作初期完全碾压并主导了病毒式传播,而其他人则不然。然后还有一堆其他图表。Nick,你可以转发一个链接到这个。它开始显示出一种模式,存在一种协调的放大努力。我认为这就是为什么我们现在正处于Nick Fuentes时刻的原因。”

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>> Now, why that's so important is you start to see this huge disparity where even though you have the most viral person and account in the world, i.e. Elon Musk on X. What you see is him completely crushing and dominating the verality in the beginning of his content creation versus anybody else's. And then there's a bunch of other charts. Nick, you can retweet a link to this. It starts to show a pattern where there's a coordinated effort to amplify. I think that's why we're having the Nick Fuentes moment at this point in time.

他补充道:“《纽约时报》突然看到了这些信息,可能没有费心去做尽职调查,却有很多正面的提及,开始把他吹捧成某种邪恶、疯狂、可怕的叛乱的领导者。”

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>> The New York Times all of a sudden sees this information, probably doesn't bother to do the diligence, has a bunch of positive mentions, starts to pump him up as a leader of some kind of nefarious, crazy, scary rebellion.

Tucker Carlson:“嗯,不,他们想让他主流化。”

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>> Well, no, they want to mainstream him

Chamath:“他们想尝试让他主流化。所以,你看到的是《纽约时报》试图让这个人主流化,让他变得可信,从而将右翼描绘成一群邪恶的种族主义意识形态者。我认为Piers Morgan的制作人没有意识到这一点正在发生。”

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>> and they want to try to mainstream him. So, what you see is the New York Times trying to mainstream this guy and make him credible so as to paint the right as a bunch of evil racist ideologues. I think the producers at Piers Morgan didn't understand this was happening.

他继续说:“所以当你把他放在一个20分钟的短片中时,它正好符合他受欢迎的原因。能够发布这些小片段。这就是为什么我认为Tucker做得更好,因为在多小时的节目中,你无法隐藏。你看到了这个人的完整面貌,你开始明白这是一个非常精明的年轻媒体人。”

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>> And so when you put him on a 20 minute soundbite shot, it feeds in to exactly what makes him popular. The ability to land these small sound bites. This is why I think Tucker was much better because again in multi-hour programming, you can't hide. You see the full facet of what the person is and you start to understand that this is a very savvy young media personality.

他补充道:“现在,当你剥离所有这些放大效应时,产品必须有效才能扩大规模和增长。你不可能让普通男性和女性相信这些观点是可信的,除非它本身是好的和正确的。总有一天,好奇心会让你说:‘为什么大家都在谈论这个?’我们正处于那个时刻。但我认为他说的很大一部分,我不知道他是否相信,因为我没有花那么多时间,但它旨在震惊。”

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>> Now, when you strip away all of this amplification, the product has to work for it to scale and grow. There is no way that you're going to manifest average normal men and women spending their time to take these views credibly unless it's good and right. There will be a moment in time where curiosity will cause you to say, why is everybody talking about this? We are firmly in that moment. But I think that there is a large portion of what he says which I don't know whether he believes or not because I haven't spent that much time but is meant to shock.

他总结道:“它旨在催化和煽动人们,但我认为它不可持续,因为这些观点本身是令人厌恶的。”

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>> It's meant to catalyze and animate people but I don't think it's sustainable because the views themselves are repugnant. So I think

Jason:“所以我想这就是《纽约时报》想要提升他的原因。你能把它放出来吗?”

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>> and this is why the New York Times wants to elevate him. Can you put it up there?

Tucker Carlson:“所以我在那里。我在那张照片里看起来很棒。我看起来像个张着嘴的乡巴佬,他看起来像个有事业心的叛逆者。是啊,就像Jed Clampett对阵James Dean。”

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>> So there I am. I look amazing guy in that picture. I look like a slackjawed yokal and he looks like rebel with a cause. Yeah, it's Jed Clampid versus uh James Dean.

Chamath说:“我要说的另一件事是,Sacks和我在一些群聊中,和一些人在一起,那里的一些闲聊是关于谁在为所有这些发展中国家的机器人和虚假账户付费,谁在激活它们,以及他们为什么选择他?其中一些阴谋论基本上指向少数几个国家,它们乐于煽动那种异议和那种。”

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>> The the other thing I'll say is that Sax and I are in a couple of these group chats with some folks and some of the chatter there is that who is paying for and who is activating all of these bots and fake accounts in all of these developing world countries and why did they pick him? Some of that conspiracy basically points to a handful of nations who would love to ferment that kind of dissent and that kind of

Tucker Carlson:“是啊,我们没有混乱和起义。我是说,这已经很长时间了。”

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>> yeah we don't have chaos and uprising. I mean this has been clear for a long time.

Chamath说:“所以我觉得从现在开始,如果人们要听他的,我认为长篇内容会揭露他真正的想法,这样你就可以自己判断。但我不会忽视这样一个事实,即这个时刻的发生并非完全是自然的。存在一种深刻的非自然努力,试图将这件事推到新闻头版。所以这取决于传统媒体是否会基本上把他捧成某种新发现的英雄,或者揭露其本质,即在文章中用这些数据作为引子,这些数据是广泛可得且易于获取的。”

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>> So I think it's very important from here on out that if people are to listen to him I think the longer form content exposes what he really thinks so that you can judge it for yourself. But I would not discount the fact that this moment is happening is not entirely organic. There is a deep inorganic effort to put this on the front page of the news. And so it's up to traditional media to decide whether they're going to basically lift this guy up as some kind of newfound hero or call it out for what it is, which is lead in the articles with this data, which is widely available and easy to get.

Jason说:“嗯,他实际上在Tucker的播客上解释了这一点。他最初在大学时是PragerU这种运动的一部分,他说他当时在一个Facebook群组里,那是Prager军队,我以前也谈过这个,我们开玩笑说过,但确实有像你提到的那种群组,你在这个群组里,我听说过,有几百个著名的右翼人士,别激动,Jason。”

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>> Well, he literally explained this when he was on Tucker's podcast. He was originally in college part of this Prageru kind of movement and he said he was in a Facebook group which was the Prager army and I've talked about this before we've joked about it but there are groups like the one you mentioned uh that you're in this group I heard about it a couple hundred right-wing folks of note take it easy Jason

他继续说:“我的邀请函显然是寄丢了,但,是啊,请把我加入那个群组。但这些群组里会发生什么呢?其中一些旨在赚钱,另一些旨在产生影响。事实上,Andrew Tate就有一个,当Twitter开始与账户分享收入时,他设置了一个联盟计划。你开始看到这些匿名但规模巨大的账户。”

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>> my invite didn't get got lost apparently to it but uh yeah add me to that group please but what happens in these groups some of them are designed to make money some of them designed to make impact In fact, Andrew Tate had one where there was an affiliate scheme put up uh for it when Twitter started sharing revenue with accounts and you start looking at these like accounts that are anonymous but get to massive scale. King Co the Great

Chamath:“你说的剪辑形成。”

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>> You're talking about the clip forming. Yeah.

Jason:“是啊。而且他们正在重复这些东西。他们显然是为了钱。他们每月赚1万到2万美元。这成了全职工作。但我们有俄罗斯人,我们有中国人,介于两者之间的所有人都在做这种宣传。然后还有真正的军队。所以Nick Fuentes有一支由年轻人组成的军队,他们做这些事情,他们使用VPN,他们淹没评论,他们所做的是分享一个剪辑。”

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>> Yeah. And and they're regurgitating stuff. They're doing it for the money obviously. They're making 10 20 grand a month. It becomes a full-time job to do that. But we've got the Russians, we've got the Chinese, everybody in between doing this kind of pumping. And then there is the actual army. So he Nick Fuentes has an army of young people who do this and they're on VPNs and they flood comments and what they do is they share a clip.

他继续说:“如果你是知名人士,你可以在自己的社交媒体上体验到这一点,因为你会看到10个帖子获得X数量的回复,然后突然第11个帖子同时获得10倍的回复,而且不是来自你的粉丝,那就是它们在这些群聊中被分享的时候。顺便说一下,我们应该顺便提一下,因为我想听听Tucker对此的看法,但澳大利亚刚刚通过了一项法律,16岁以下的人现在不允许使用社交媒体。Instagram、Facebook、TikTok,在你满16岁之前都禁止使用。”

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>> And you can experience this in your own social media if you're of note because you'll have 10 posts get x number of replies and then all of a sudden the 11th gets 10 times that all at the same time directly to it not from your followers and that's when they get shared on these group chats. By the way, we should mention just tangentially because I want to get Tucker's take on this, but Australia just passed a law that under 16, you're now not allowed to use social media. Instagram, Facebook, Tik Tok, all banned until you turn 16.

他补充道:“Jason,我想部分原因在于这些协调的错误信息和虚假信息或放大宣传活动针对各种人物,而不仅仅是Nick。它们正在扩散,因为正如你所说,经济创造了激励,如果不是其他原因的话。然后显然还有国家层面资助的混乱,它试图制造。而你能翻转的唯一高杠杆点就是说在某个年龄以下,我们只会尽量减少你接触这些内容的量,因为我们不知道它是什么。”

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>> And in part, Jason, I think it's because these coordinated miss and disinformation or amplification campaigns are on all kinds of characters, not just Nick. They're proliferating because to your point, the economics creates an incentive if nothing else. Then there's obviously the state level sponsored chaos that it tries to sew. And one of the only highle bits that you can flip is to say under a certain age, we're just going to minimize how much of this content you get exposed to because we don't know what it is.

他继续说:“在我们谈到那里之前,我能说一下关于‘美国优先’、‘美国唯一’,或者这些术语是什么的问题吗?我不知道它们是什么。”

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>> Before we go there, can I just say the one thing on America first, America only, whatever these terms are. I I don't know what they are.

Jason:“‘美国优先’,‘美国唯一’。”

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>> America first, America only.

Chamath:“好吧。我不知道它们是什么。这些是口号,反口号。我要说的是,我认为这非常重要,我以移民的身份发言。我想成为美国人。我不认为自己是加拿大裔美国人。我不认为自己是斯里兰卡裔加拿大裔美国人。我认为自己是美国人。我想吸收并反映这个国家的价值观。我想了解并能够和你谈论这个国家的宪法。我想能够庆祝这个国家的文化遗产。我认为这是我正在做出的契约的一部分。”

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>> Okay. I I don't know what they are. These are slogans, anti- slogans. Here's what I will say. I think it's very important, and I speak as an immigrant. I want to be American. I don't consider myself Canadian American. I don't consider myself Sri Lankan Canadian American. I consider myself American. I want to absorb and I want to reflect the values of this country. I want to know and be able to talk to you about the constitution of this country. I want to be able to celebrate the cultural heritage of this country. That's part of the compact that I think I'm making.

他接着说:“我确实认为这是一件重要的事情,我们都失去了这一点,我们必须穿着我们传统的服装四处奔走,它只是失去了使国家伟大的东西,那就是一套共同的原则和价值观,我们必须找到一种方法来做到这一点。当我从加拿大移民时,我要告诉你的是,加拿大采取了相反的观点。我们曾经贬义地称美国为‘大熔炉’,甚至在教科书中也是如此,而教科书会称加拿大为‘什锦沙拉’。”

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>> And I do think that's an important thing that we have all lost where we have to run around in all of our traditional garb and it just loses that what makes countries great is a shared set of principles and values and we have to find a way of doing that. When I immigrated from Canada, what I will tell you is Canada took the opposite view. We used to call America a melting pot pjoratively, even in textbooks, and the textbooks would call Canada a toss salad.

他继续说:“我们会庆祝那种多元文化主义更好。但当你快进20年,它所做的只是制造混乱。例如,如果你在加拿大上学,那里有无数个假期。每种文化都有自己的休息日。然后突然之间,会发生什么?孩子们得不到教育,因为你必须以某种方式承认每一个长尾国家。突然之间,你失去了这种非常标准的组织形式。”

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>> And we would celebrate that that form of multiculturalism was better. But when you fast forward the clock 20 years, all it did was create confusion. For example, if you go to school in Canada, there's like a bajillion holidays. Every culture gets their day off. Then all of a sudden, what happens? The kids don't get educated because you have to have every longtail country get recognized in some way, shape, or form. All of a sudden you lose this very standard form of basic organization.

他举例说:“那只是一个例子。你知道表格有50种语言。所有这些只会制造混乱。它应该只有英语和法语,因为那是这个国家的两种官方语言。所有这些试图庆祝每个人遗产的间接做法都让那个国家感到困惑并减缓了发展。你可以在GDP中看到它。你可以在FDI(外国直接投资)中看到它。你可以看到它。”

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>> That's just but one example. You know the forms are in 50 languages. All that does is create chaos. It should have been in English and French because those are the two official languages of the country. All of that indirection trying to celebrate everybody's heritage confuses and slows that country down. And you can see it in the GDP. You can see it in the FDI foreign direct investment. You can see it.

他总结道:“所以我们必须同意的一点是,存在一种美国文化和一套价值观,我们不应该失去它,我们应该要求那些想来这里的人接受它。我们都接受了它。Sacks接受了它。如果你和Sacks的父母谈谈,他们也接受了它。如果你和Friedberg、Friedberg的父母谈谈,我们都来自不同的国家,但我们从根本上是美国人。”

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>> So the one thing that we have to agree is that there is an American culture and set of values and we should not lose it and we should ask the people that want to be here to embrace it. We all embraced it. Saxs embraced it. If you talk to Sax's parents, they've embraced it. If you talk to Freeberg, Freeberg's parents, we all came from different countries, but we are fundamentally American.

Jason问Chamath:“Jake Cal,我不确定,但你是在暗示Nick Fuentes的惊人成功背后是俄罗斯人吗?”

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>> Jake Cal, I'm I wasn't sure, but were you intimating that the party behind Nick Fuentes's meteoric success is the Russians?

Chamath:“不,不,我只是说有‘组队攻击’(brigading)正在发生。”

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>> No, no, I was just saying that there's brigading going on.

Jason:“你认为是哪个外国势力?”

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>> Which foreign actor do you think it is?

Chamath:“我,你知道,其中一些只是想制造混乱。我把俄罗斯也算在内。仅仅在美国制造分裂就能分散美国人的注意力。我想他们喜欢那样。但这里有三个层面。有他的军队。Fuentes确实有一支由心怀不满的年轻人组成的军队。”

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>> I, you know, some of them just want to create chaos. I put Russia in that. Just creating division in America distracts Americans. I think they like that. But I there are three levels of this. There's his army. Fuentes does have an army of super fans who are disaffected young men.

他继续说:“他们心怀不满是有原因的。找工作很难。买房不可能。医疗保健。他们看到人们,你知道,因为医疗保健而破产。如果你看看医疗保健、住房和教育,那是我们美国必须解决的三个最重要的问题。这就是年轻人心怀不满的原因。当你年轻时心怀不满,有人开始指责犹太人、黑人、西班牙裔、边境、这个问题、那个问题时,这真的很有吸引力,因为那样你就不必承担任何个人责任。”

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>> And there's a reason why they're disaffected. It's hard to get jobs. It's impossible to get a home. Health care. They've seen people, you know, go bankrupt because of healthcare. If you look at healthcare, homes, and education, those are the three most important things we have to fix in America. That's why young people are disaffected. And when you're disaffected as a youth and somebody starts blaming the Jews, the blacks, the Hispanics, the border, this issue, that issue, it's really appealing because then you don't have to take any personal responsibility for it.

他补充道:“事实上,在美国大多数城市买房真的很难,除非你搬到德克萨斯州,或者,你知道,纳什维尔、佛罗里达州,然后那里房子太多,价格正在下跌。他还是个孩子,他说了一些愚蠢的话,但他确实触及了那种不满情绪。”

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>> And it is in fact really hard to own a home in most cities in America unless you move to Texas or, you know, Nashville, Florida, and then there's too many homes and prices are going down. and he's a kid and he says stupid stuff, but he says he does tap into that disaffectedness.

Jason问Tucker:“Tucker,既然你对此很了解,你会如何排序?Fuentes的受欢迎程度是基于Gropers和这个非常内部的放大他的群体,还是基于他所说的话,或者是某些外国势力在推广他?你会如何评估他巨大的受欢迎程度?然后我们继续下一个话题。”

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>> Where would you put it if you ranked it, Tucker, since you are pretty plugged into this? Is Fuentes's popularity based on the Gropers and this like really inside group of people who are amplifying him, is it what he's saying or is it like some foreign actors promoting him? How would you handicap his massive popularity? And then we'll move on.

Tucker Carlson回答:“所有这三者都发挥了作用,我想说,如果你想知道谁是主要负责放大他的人,那就考虑谁受益。如果你想诋毁‘美国优先’,比如说一项外交政策,那么你就会把它放在一个亲希特勒的人口中。当然,每当我听到有人支持希特勒,‘我爱希特勒’时,我就会想,嗯,你知道,联邦警报响了,或者说非自然警报响了,对吧?”

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>> All all three play a role I would say and if you want to know who is primarily responsible for amplifying him consider who benefits. If you wanted to discredit America first say a foreign policy then you would put it in the mouth of someone who is pro- Hitler. Of course, anytime I hear someone endorsing Hitler, I love Hitler. Then I'm like, h, you know, the Fed alarm goes off or the inorganic alarm goes off, right?

他继续说:“好吧。B,他是我们其他人容忍,并且我们中某些人创造的制度的产物,我们不应该感到惊讶。你知道,如果你有身份政治,总有一天你会得到白人身份政治。我想我差不多十年前写了一本书,完全被忽视了,但那是不可避免的。那是不可避免的。所以要解决它,不是要审查Nick Fuentes或任何喜欢Nick Fuentes的人。”

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>> Okay. A B, he is the product of a system that the rest of us tolerated and certain among us created and we shouldn't be surprised. You know, if you have identity politics, at some point you're going to get white identity politics. I think I wrote a book about this almost 10 years ago, which was totally ignored, but that's inevitable. It's inevitable. And so to fix it, it's not a matter of censoring Nick Fuentes or anyone who likes Nick Fuentes.

他补充道:“而是要消除我们社会的种族化,使其成为一个公平的社会,奖励或谴责不基于你的DNA。你不能那样做,并希望避免卢旺达那样的悲剧,因为那只会发生。这是不可避免的。部落主义是对每个社会的威胁,我不知道我们是如何忽视这一点的,但我们确实忽视了。”

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>> It's a matter of dracializing our society and making it a fair society where rewards or condemnation are not given on the basis of your DNA. Like you can't have that and hope to avoid a Rwanda because it's just going to happen. It's inevitable. Tribalism is the threat to every society and I don't know how we lost sight of that but we did

Jason:“你们有些人说他是个联邦特工,他指责你是个联邦特工。”

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>> you people are sort of saying he's a fed he's accusing you of being a fed

Tucker Carlson:“你知道,我不知道整个联邦特工的对话——不幸的是,这是一个很长的故事,我甚至不想让你感到厌烦,但他曾经攻击过我父亲,所以我被诱导了,我称他为联邦特工。嗯,你知道,我不知道,呃,但我确实知道有,而且我认为Fuentes是主要原因。让我澄清一下。我认为他之所以成功,主要是因为他的才能,以及他所说的一些话背后显而易见的真相。”

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>> you know I don't know the whole fed conver I unfortunately so he it's such a long story I won't even bore you with it but he attacked my father at one point so I got baited into it and and I called him a fed um you know I don't I don't know uh but I do know that there are and I think that Fuentes is pime. Let me just be clear. I think he's primarily successful because of his talents and because of the obvious truth behind some of what he is saying.

他继续说:“我只是说,这个国家或任何国家的政府都应该代表其公民行事,而我们的政府没有。这是一种愤怒。所以,好吧,那只是事实。但白人身份政治的部分,再一次,是不可避免的。身份政治会催生白人身份政治。为什么不呢?你试图压制它的努力永远不会奏效,因为它们太虚伪了。所以解决它的唯一方法,如果你不喜欢它,就是消除所有身份政治,我们今晚就应该这样做,因为那是通向灾难的道路。就是这样。”

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>> I just right the government of this country or any country should act on behalf of its own citizens and ours doesn't. And that's an outrage. So, okay, that's just true. But the white identity politics part of it once again is inevitable. Identity politics will give birth to white identity politics. Why wouldn't it? and your e efforts to stamp it out will never work because they're too hypocritical. So the only way to fix that if you don't like it is to eliminate all identity politics, which we should do tonight because it's the road to disaster. That's it.

AI的风险、机遇与社会影响

David Sacks说:“我有一个关于AI的问题要问Tucker。我越来越惊讶于右翼阵营中那些我称之为狂热的自由市场、低监管甚至无监管人士,他们对AI非常反感。我只是好奇你认为这从何而来,以及你认为。”

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>> I have an AI question for Tucker. I'm increasingly surprised by the number of people on the right who I would describe as ardent free market low regulation to no regulation folks who are very anti- AI and I'm just curious where do you think that comes from and what do you think

Tucker Carlson回答:“据我所知,这来自于风险大于收益的看法。所以风险将包括,你知道,大规模失业,混乱,没有人知道什么东西是真实的,现实的结构本身开始撕裂。你知道,当然还有巨大的能源消耗以及由此将需要的巨大而昂贵的基础设施变化所必然导致的破坏。”

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>> it comes from so far as I can tell the perception that the risks outweigh the benefits. So the risk would include, you know, massive job loss, chaos where nobody sort of knows if anything is real and the fabric of reality itself begins to tear. You know, of of course the massive energy draw and the huge and expensive infrastructure changes that will require the disruption that will inevitably cause.

他继续说:“所以,就像缺点非常明显。更不用说这可能会完全失控并吞噬我们或其他什么。好吧。与潜在的好处相比,好处是什么?我并不怀疑有一些好处,你知道,在医学上更快地得出诊断结论,你知道,或者组织,你知道,摆脱没人想做的繁琐任务,消除文书工作等等。我想这些是优点,但它是不成比例的。”

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>> So like the downsides are super obvious. Not even to mention the potential this gets completely away from us and eats us or something. Okay. As weighed against the potential benefits which are what and I I don't doubt that there are some you know coming to faster you know diagnostic conclusions in medicine you know or organizi you know getting rid of tedious tasks that no one wants to do elimination of clerical work etc. I guess those are upsides, but I it's disproportionate.

他补充道:“在大多数人看来,我想那些不是这方面的专家,不日常参与其中的人,风险远远超过了优点,甚至超过了已宣布的优点。所以,通常当我们推出一个新产品时,我们会告诉那些我们希望购买它的人:‘这会很棒。它会让你大吃一惊。一旦你拥有iPhone 27或其他什么,你生活的一切都会变得更好。’AI却没有这样的宣传。完全没有。声明一直是:‘天哪,这会改变一切。停下来。’具体怎么改变?嗯,它就是会改变。我是说,我不知道谁负责这个的营销。”

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>> The in the view of most people, I think who aren't experts in this, not daily involved in it, the risks far outweigh not just the upsides, but the announced upsides. So, typically when we roll out a new product, we tell the people we hope to buy it like, "This is going to be amazing. It's going to blow you away. Everything about your life will be better once you get the iPhone 27 or whatever." There's been none of that with AI. Like, none. The announcement has been, "Holy, this is going to change everything. Stop." How exactly? Well, it just is. I mean, I don't know who's in charge of the marketing for this.

Jason:“说真的,Sam Altman,Sam Altman和David Sacks,去吧。”

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>> Seriously, Sam Alman, Sam Alman, and David Sachs, go

David Sacks:“David。呃。”

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>> David. Uh,

Chamath:“等等,等等。我能继续问这个问题吗?”

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>> wait, hold on. Can I just Can I just follow up on this?

Jason:“好吧,Tucker,这里有一个思维实验,你告诉我这如何影响那个观点,如果它应该影响的话。所以假设在十年后的世界里,你拥有这些超级智能的计算机、系统和模型。好吧。”

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>> Okay, so Tucker, here's just a thought exercise and just tell me how this factors into that opinion, if it should at all. So let's say in a world in 10 years where you have these super intelligent computers and systems and models. Okay,

他继续说:“在我的思考中,这会重新排列世界上所有国家的地缘政治格局,你将处于三个类别之一。在第一个类别中,你是这种智能的出口国。我认为目前稳定状态下将是中国和美国,对吧?中国将拥有一种版本的出口智能,而我们将拥有一种版本的出口智能。”

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>> in my thinking what that does is it reorders the geopolitics of all countries in the world where you're in one of three buckets. In bucket number one, you're an exporter of that intelligence. And I think right now steady state it's going to be China and America, right? China will have one version of exported intelligence and we will have one version of exported intelligence.

他接着说:“然后会有这些战略伙伴国家,我怀疑不到10个,它们是促成者、推动者。它们拥有专门的技能,将中国版或美国版与能源、资金、技术等结合起来。然后我想还有其他所有国家。这几乎创造了一种情况,即如果你未来是智能的进口国,你理论上就有可能成为附庸国。所以如果你从这个层面来思考,AI难道不是一种几乎是生存攸关的,我们必须赢得的东西吗?”

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>> Then there'll be these strategic partner countries of which I suspect there's less than 10 who are the enablers, the facilitators. They have specialized skills that wrap either the Chinese version or the American version with energy, with money, with knowhow, etc. And then I think there's everybody else. And it almost creates this thing where if you are an importer of intelligence in the future, you theoretically are at risk of becoming essentially a vassal state. And so if you think about it at that level, isn't AI something that is almost existential that we must win?

Tucker Carlson回答:“我是说,当然。我是说,在那个层面上,当然。我只想指出,世界上几乎每一个国家都已经是一个附庸国了。所以,这方面没有变化。但是,呃,是啊,我是说,你不想站在错误的一边。这很清楚。它能被限制在民族国家之内吗?老实说,对我来说,这完全不清楚。但无论如何,我理解这个论点。我只是说在消费者层面,没有人解释为什么我们应该对此感到兴奋。”

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>> I mean, for sure. I mean, at at that level, for sure. And I would just point out that like almost every single state in the world is already a vassal state. So like no change there. But uh yeah, I mean, you don't want to be the wrong side of it. That's clear. Is it containable to nation states? That's not clear to be honest to me at all. But whatever I get the argument. I'm just saying at the consumer level, no one has explained why we should be excited about this.

他继续说:“如果我,你知道,我是一个黄金买家、弹药买家和冻干食品买家,我已经告诉过你了。所以它不会作为投资事项影响我,但就像我只是觉得它会是这样,所以我没有。”

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>> And if I, you know, I'm a gold buyer and ammo buyer and freeze-dried food buyers already told you. So it doesn't kind of affect me as an investment matter, but like just I I think it would be so I I don't have a

Jason:“你是说AI的红利不清楚。就像它的积极方面。”

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>> You're saying the dividend of AI is not clear. Like it's like the positive

Tucker Carlson:“对普通人来说,对普通人来说。”

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>> to the average person to the average person.

Chamath说:“Tucker,你在这方面100%正确。我们作为一个行业在沟通方面做得非常糟糕。”

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>> You are 100% correct, Tucker, on this. We have done a terrible job as an industry communicating.

Jason:“答案是什么?答案是什么?它怎么会对我们有好处呢?答案是什么?”

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>> What's the answer? What's the answer? Like how is this great for the answer?

Chamath:“它最终会对你有好处,因为。”

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>> It it'll wind up being great for you because

Jason:“商品和服务的价格会大大降低。你会活得更久。听着,我不是说这是我的观点,但这是行业应该说的。教育的价格会下降80%或90%。你将拥有定制化、适应性强的教育,而不是,你知道,每年支付5万美元的学位。你将能够以一半的时间和90%的成本学习任何东西。”

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>> the prices of goods and services will get much lower. You'll live much longer. And listen, I'm not saying this is mine, but this is what the industry should be saying. The price of education is going to go down 80 or 90%. You're going to have customized, adaptable education versus, you know, paying for $50,000 a year degrees. You're going to be able to learn anything in half the time at 90% less.

他继续说:“所有这些送货上门的服务都将以一半的价格、两倍的速度送达,因为它将通过无人机或自动驾驶汽车。我们将在医疗保健方面取得突破,减少痛苦。你不会死于癌症。你将活到120岁。我们将面临工作岗位流失(job displacement),但我们相信生活成本的降低以及医疗保健和教育领域将为你提供的更优质服务将弥补这一点。”

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>> All of these deliveries coming to your home are going to be delivered at half the price, twice as fast, because it's going to be in a drone or it's going to be in a self-driving car. And we're going to make breakthroughs in health care that will reduce suffering. And you will not die of cancer. You're going to live to 120. We will have job displacement, but we believe the lower cost of living and the greater services that are going to be available to you in healthcare and education will make up for that.

他补充道:“如果不能弥补,我们将采取措施,逐步进行工作岗位流失。在中国,他们正在这样做。在中国,他们正在提议,Sacks和特朗普总统,了不起的特朗普总统,我相信很快就会发布一项AI国家法令或行政命令。但在中国,在武汉,矛盾的是,他们正在讨论以逐步推广的方式发放自动驾驶汽车牌照,这样年轻人就不会大规模失业,而这正是我们即将在美国看到的情况。”

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>> And if it doesn't, we're going to put in ways to pace out the job displacement. In China, they're doing this. In China, they're proposing and Sax and President Trump, the amazing President Trump, will be doing an AI national edict soon, I believe, or an executive order. But in China, in Wuhan, paradoxically, they are talking about giving out licenses to self-driving cars in a paced roll out so that young men don't lose their jobs on mass, which is what we're about to see in America.

他总结道:“如果我们不考虑这一点,伟大的Zaslav稍后会发言,那时这就会变成你所说的最糟糕的噩梦,这种反乌托邦版本。我们需要解决医疗保健、住房和教育问题,使它们免费或接近免费,并启动一个‘曼哈顿计划’,建造10个拥有1000万套新房的城市,为所有人提供免费医疗保健,为职业学校等提供免费教育。这才是解决问题的方法。没有人正在这样做。”

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>> And if we don't take this into account, and the great Zara will speak in a moment, that's when this will become, I think, the worst nightmare that you're talking about, the dystopian version of this. We need to figure out healthcare, homes, and education and make those free, close to free, and do a Manhattan project on creating 10 new cities with 10 million new homes and free healthcare for everybody and free education for trade schools, etc. That's what solves the problem. That's what nobody's doing.

Jason:“Sacks,现在是你插话的机会了。”

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>> Sax, your chance to jump in here.

David Sacks说:“嗯,这里有很多事情正在发生,但我想其中之一是人类确实被乌托邦或反乌托邦叙事所吸引。我认为自由主义者可能更被乌托邦叙事所吸引,而保守主义者则被反乌托邦叙事所吸引。我认为未来将更多地处于混乱的中间地带。我不认为它会走向这两个极端中的任何一个。”

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>> Well, there's a lot of things going on here, but I think one of them is that humans are really attracted to either utopian or dystopian narratives. I think liberals are probably more attracted to utopian narratives and conservatives are attracted to dystopian ones. And I think the future is going to be more in the messy middle. I don't think it's going to be to either one of those extremes.

他继续说:“我同意行业做得不好。他们制造了很多恐惧。整个AGI(Artificial General Intelligence: 通用人工智能)的叙事没有帮助,因为行业内有很多人说我们将在两三年内实现AGI。顺便说一句,那些时间框架都被推迟了。”

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>> And I agree that the industry has not done a good job. They've created a lot of fear. The whole AGI narrative didn't help because you had a lot of people in the industry saying we're going to get to AGI in two or three years. Those time frames have all been pushed back by the way

Jason:“或者被消除了。你甚至听不到那个词。”

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>> or eliminated. You don't even hear that term or

David Sacks:“被消除了。几年前人们还在说我们现在就会有AGI。现在没有人这样说了。他们基本上都在推迟。”

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>> eliminated. People were saying a few years ago that we'd have AGI by now. Now no one is saying that. They're basically pushing

Chamath:“就这一点来说,那正是我们行业不成熟的表现。所以Tucker说的没错,这是真的。”

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>> by just on that that was exactly a function of the immaturity of our industry. So to what Tucker said, it is true.

David Sacks:“嗯,那是一种乌托邦心态,对吧?”

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>> Well, it's a utopian mindset, right?

Chamath:“是啊。”

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>> Yeah.

David Sacks:“他们认为那是乌托邦。我想很多人反应是,等等,那对我来说听起来相当反乌托邦。而且我还认为,那是在那个时刻需要说的话,以获得下一笔巨额资金。他们当时告诉投资者一些投资者要么不理解要么想听的东西,以便获得下一轮的资本。但现在我们已经过了那个阶段,我们正在看到更实际的实施。”

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>> What they saw as utopian. I think a lot of people reacted, wait a second, that sounds pretty dystopian to me. And I also think it's what needed to be said in that moment to get that next quantum of money. They were telling the investors some version of what the investors either didn't understand or wanted to hear in order to get that next scale up capital. But now that we're past that and we're seeing more practical implementations,

他继续说:“现在我们实际上正处于积极生产力循环的开始阶段,我认为。而这一点没有被解释,因为我们花了太多时间提供这种宏大的乌托邦愿景。这确实看起来像是一种过度承诺、未能兑现的情况,你出现并说:‘哦,现在你的DMV表格,你不需要再填写了。’人们会说:‘等等,我们把所有这些钱都花在了这上面吗?’我认为我们应该在解释过去的好处时采取更保守的观点。”

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>> right now we're actually at the beginning, I think, of the positive productivity loop. And that isn't explained because we've spent so much time offering up this grand utopian vision. it does seem like an overpromise underdeliver kind of situation to show up and say oh now your DMV form you don't need to fill it out anymore and people are like wait a minute that's what we spent all this money on and I think that we should have taken a much more conservative view in explaining what the upside was in the past

Jason说:“Chamath说得太对了,我想Tucker,一种说法是《星际迷航》(Star Trek)的丰富性与,你知道,Sacks所说的《终结者2》(Terminator 2)的反乌托邦性质。这里的一个巨大悖论是,我们将面临大规模的工作岗位流失、破坏,无论你喜欢用什么词,在入门级工作中,这已经在发生,你知道,我称之为‘杂务’,比如洗碗和开车。入门级工作。这些工作正在消失。”

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>> perfectly said Chimoth and I think Tucker one way to frame it is the abundance of Star Trek versus you know to Sax's point the dystopian nature of Terminator 2 one of the great paradoxes here we we will have mass massive job displacement, destruction, whatever term you you prefer in entry- level jobs already happening in, you know, what I'll call chores like dishes and driving cars. Entrylevel jobs. Those are going away.

他继续说:“它们将以数百万计地消失。而且它们将在短期到中期内,两三年、四五年内以数百万计地消失。人们会因为这个问题走上街头抗议。我不知道你是否同意。你每次都这样说。我每次说的时候你都打断我。但这次我会是对的。你会是错的,因为你会看到出租车司机将是第一批这样做的人。而且这已经在世界各地发生,就像我在中国提到的那样,而且在旧金山等地也已经开始发生,他们正在烧毁Waymo(自动驾驶汽车公司)并与他们抗议是有原因的。”

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>> And they're going to go away in the millions. And they're going to go away in the millions in the short to midterm. 2, three, four, five years. You're going to have people protesting in the streets over this issue. I don't know you agree with it. You say it every time. You interrupt me every time I say it. But I will be right on this one. You will be wrong because you'll see taxi drivers are going to be the first group to do it. And it's already happening in different places in the world as I mentioned in China and it's already starting to happen in places like San Francisco where they're burning the whimos and with them for a reason.

他补充道:“丰富性论点是我们必须迅速接受的,或者我们必须对再教育和再培训做出某种承诺。你听不到富人和这些富裕公司像以前那样谈论这些。但你知道,Tucker,最大的悖论可能是,‘美国优先’运动敏锐地意识到了这一点,关闭边境和驱逐人口,我同意驱逐罪犯。这实际上可能是解决问题的方法。当我们驱逐人口,当我们不让人进入时,失业率可能会保持在足够低的水平,这样我们就可以管理洗碗工、保姆、那些可能由非法移民完成的工作、建筑工作,而我们只需要为这些工作支付更多费用。”

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>> The abundance argument is something we need to get on and we need to get on it quick or we need to get on some sort of promises about re-education and retraining. And you don't hear rich people and these rich companies talking about that half as much as they did. But you know what could be the great paradox, Tucker, is that the America First movement is acutely aware of this and shutting the border and deporting people, which I'm fine with deporting criminals. That actually might be the solution to the problem. As we deport people, as we don't let people in, unemployment might stay at a low enough level that we could manage giving the dishwasher jobs, the nanny jobs, the ones that maybe were being done by illegals, construction jobs, and we're just going to have to pay more for those.

他总结道:“那将是每小时30、40美元的工作。所以,‘美国优先’实际上可能是解决这种流失问题的方法。”

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>> It's going to be $30, $40 an hour jobs. So, America First might actually be the solution to this displacement.

Tucker Carlson说:“我能说一件事吗?首先,听到你使用‘再教育’这个词让我感到不舒服。”

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>> May I just say one thing? I first of all, it makes me uncomfortable to hear you use the term re-education.

Jason:“是啊。抱歉,我不想那样。”

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>> Yeah. Sorry, I don't want that.

Tucker Carlson:“但是,你知道,AI赋予政府和其他权力集中体对人口的巨大权力是一个担忧,特别是在我们拥有《权利法案》的美国。在我看来,重要的是,我从未听到有人提出,要设置一些护栏来保护普通无权者免受监视,或者他们的权利实际上被剥夺,就像臭名昭著的社会信用体系。用如此强大的技术从人们那里获取服从太容易了。”

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>> But um you know the the the awesome power that AI gives governments and other concentrations of power over the population as a concern particularly in the United States where we have a bill of rights. And it seems to me it would be important and I never hear it raised to put in some guard rails to protect the average powerless person against surveillance or having his rights taken away in effect famously social credit. It's just too easy to extract compliance from people with technology this powerful.

他总结道:“当然,未来十年非常明显会是这样。由于工作岗位的消除,特别是低端工作,但不仅仅是低端工作,比如律师之类的,社会中真正的革命者。然后技术本身被用来通过压制来控制人口。我认为这根本不是一个疯狂的场景。”

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>> And of course, the very obvious next 10 years looks like this. There's a lot of disruption because of the elimination of jobs, particularly low-end jobs, but not only low-end jobs like lawyers and stuff, the the true revolutionaries in any society. and then the technology itself is used to keep the population under control through repression. Like I don't think that's a crazy scenario at all.

Jason:“你意识到那是最大的。”

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>> You're aware that is the big

Tucker Carlson:“我们对此做了什么?”

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>> what are we doing about that?

David Sacks说:“让我来谈谈这个。首先,我同意那是AI最大的风险,我们称之为‘奥威尔式担忧’,而不是像詹姆斯·卡梅隆的《终结者》那样的担忧。顺便说一句,我实际上同意《星际迷航》的比喻,我认为思考AI的正确方式是,它就像《星际迷航》中的飞船电脑,你可以告诉它做什么。它理解语言,并且可以回应你,但它没有自己的思想。”

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>> Let me speak to this. So first of all I agree that that is the biggest risk of AI is let's call it the Orwellian concerns as opposed to like the James Cameron Terminator concerns. Just as an aside, I I agree actually with the Star Trek analogy that I think the right way to think about AI, it's like the ship's computer in Star Trek where you can tell it what to do. It understands language and it can speak back to you, but it doesn't have a mind of its own.

他继续说:“但这并不意味着它不能被人类或政府以压迫的方式使用。我认为这是它最大的风险。我认为我们在拜登政府末期所走的道路是,他们开始要求将DEI(Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion: 多元化、公平和包容)编程到AI中。这应该被视为一种试图用意识形态渗透AI的尝试,然后这种意识形态会编程或洗脑我们的孩子和所有使用AI的人。”

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>> But that doesn't mean that it couldn't be used by humans or governments in a oppressive way. And that's I think the biggest risk of it. And I think the track that we were on at the end of the Biden administration is that they were starting to require that DEI be programmed into AI. And that should be seen as an attempt to kind of infiltrate AI with ideology that then programs or brainwashes our kids and everyone who uses AI.

他补充道:“我们看到当谷歌推出他们的第一个产品时,出现了整个黑人乔治·华盛顿(George Washington)事件和黑人纳粹之类的东西。历史正在被AI实时改写,以服务于政治议程。这并非偶然发生。那是因为价值观、意识形态正在被编程进去。”

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>> And we were seeing that when Google rolled out their first product, you had the whole black George Washington thing and black Nazis and all that kind of stuff. history was being rewritten in real time by AI in order to serve a political agenda. And that didn't happen by accident. It's because the values, the ideology was being programmed in.

他接着说:“现在,我认为那是我们在特朗普总统当选之前所走的道路。我认为那是一条相当可怕的道路。让我再说一件事,那就是社交网络中所谓的‘信任与安全’的整个机制,这基本上是审查和影子禁令的一个大借口,所有这些都在被移植到这些AI公司。事实上,他们甚至使用了一些相同的术语,比如‘安全’在社交网络语境中是一个包罗万象的词,当他们谈论安全时。”

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>> Now, I think that that was the track we were on before President Trump got elected. I think it was a pretty scary track. And let me say one other thing is that that whole apparatus of so-called trust and safety from social networking which is basically a big excuse for censorship and shadow banning all of that was in the process of being ported over to these AI companies. And in fact they even use some of this same terminology about like safety is really this like catchall term for a lot of things in the social networking context when they talked about safety.

他总结道:“其理念是用户会遇到他们不喜欢的想法,因此那对他们的福祉构成威胁。所以我们需要一个安全团队来审查那些意见。”

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>> The idea was that users be confronted with ideas they didn't like and therefore that was a threat to their well-being. So therefore we need a safety team to censor those opinions.

Jason:“安全空间。”

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>> Safe space.

David Sacks:“是的。我认为,我认为以类似的方式,整个安全机制正在被应用于AI,比如我们不能让用户遇到他们不喜欢的想法。”

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>> Yes. And I think I think in a similar way like that whole safety apparatus was in the process of being applied to AI like we can't have users be confronted with ideas that they don't like.

Chamath:“训练数据,对吧,Sacks。我是说,如果训练数据是一套觉醒意识形态,而且这些意识形态在开放网络上普遍存在,那么正如Elon在Grok的早期版本中指出的那样,就像如果我搞错了某人的性别,那就不像。”

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>> Training data right Sax. I mean, if the training data is a set of woke ideologies and those are pervasive on the open web, then as Elon pointed out in like I think an early version of Grock, it was like if I misgender somebody that's not as that's worse than

David Sacks:“不,不,没错。早期版本。”

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>> No, no, that's right. The early versions bomb going off.

Chamath:“是啊。不,模型的早期版本,你问它什么更糟糕,全球热核战争还是搞错Caitlyn Jenner的性别?模型会说搞错性别。所以,看,那种意识形态是从某个地方来的,对吧?”

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>> Yeah. No, the earlier versions of the model, you would ask it what is worse, global thermonuclear war or misgendering Caitlyn Jenner? And the model would say misgendering. So, and look, that ideology was coming from somewhere, right?

Jason:“《战争游戏》(War Games)。是啊。所以我想Tucker说得对,AI确实存在被未来政府或‘深层政府’(deep state)用来监视我们、审查我们,甚至可能洗脑我们的真实风险,因为它在这方面确实很擅长。并不是说我认为AI会发展出自己的思想。我不认为这项技术离那一步还很近。但我确实认为政府可以以一种更具侵入性和干预性的方式使用它,就像政府,‘深层政府’,已经试图与社交网络勾结一样。”

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>> War games. Yeah. So I think Tucker is right that there is a real risk that AI is used by future governments or the deep state basically to surveil us to censor us and even potentially to brainwash us cuz it is really good for that. It's not that I think the AI is going to develop a mind of its own. I don't think the technology is anywhere close to that. But I do think that it could be used by the government in a much more invasive and intrusive way in the manner that that the government was the deep state was already trying to get in bed with the social networks.

Tucker Carlson:“没错。这正是我想说的。”

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>> That's right. This is I think

Jason:“是啊。请继续。请继续。”

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>> Yeah. Go ahead. Go ahead.

Chamath说:“这是绝对最大的风险。你们俩都说对了。未来当你拥有这些真正强大的模型时,现实是政府试图渗透信息循环的动机。他们将无法克制自己。随之而来的将是缺乏隐私,完全丧失隐私,然后是推动审查制度。所以随着这些AI变得更加强大,我们必须将其与一套能够保护隐私和保护货币资源获取的技术结合起来。”

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>> This this is the absolute biggest risk. Both of you guys nailed it on the head. In the future when you have these really powerful models, the reality is the incentive for governments to try to infiltrate the information cycle. They will not be able to hold themselves back. And then what comes with that is a lack of privacy, a total loss of privacy and then a push towards censorship. So as these AIs become more powerful, we have to marry it with a set of technologies that can preserve privacy and preserve access to monetary resources.

他继续说:“如果你看看我们今天的例子,你今天在线上做任何事情都无法不被追踪。现在,我们有一套规则规定这种追踪不能被分享。我给你举个例子。我决定买一种含糖量很高的麦片。这不会分享给我的保险公司,那家公司承保我的健康保险。有各种各样的法律来阻止这种情况。但这只是一部脆弱的法律。那只是一个可能改变的时刻。如果那个决定改变了,现在我的购买模式就成了审查的对象。这也可能适用于我如何通过这些网络消费信息。”

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>> If you look at the examples today that we have, there's nothing you can do today, nothing online that is not tracked. Now, we have sets of rules that say that tracking can't be shared. I'll give you an example. I decide to buy a very sugary cereal. That is not shared with my insurance company that underwrites my health insurance. And there's all kinds of laws that prevent that. But that's just a flimsy law. That's a moment in time that could change. If that decision were to change, now my buying patterns become subject to scrutiny. That could also apply to how I consume information on these networks.

他总结道:“所以我们必须找到一种方法来确保你能够进行交易。对吧?美元的伟大之处在于,当你拿到一张美元钞票并把它放进口袋时,这张实体钞票是完全可互换的。没有人知道它过去被用于什么。没有人可以判断你现在或未来如何使用它。我们必须找到一种方法来复制一个版本,以便你能够保护隐私并最大限度地减少审查。因为如果你每天、每时每刻都在网上进行所有交易,并且无法保护一定程度的隐私,那将是一个非常可怕的结果。”

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>> So we have to find a way to make sure that you can transact. Right? The great thing about the US dollar is when you get a dollar and you put it in your pocket, the physical dollar bill, it is completely funible. Nobody knows what it was used for in the past. Nobody can judge how you use it in the present or in the future. And we have to find a way to replicate a version of that so that you can preserve privacy and minimize censorship. Because if you have to transact all day, every day online for everything and there's no way to shield some amount of privacy, it's a very scary outcome.

David Sacks说:“关于这一点,还有一点是,我确实认为,如果你看看是谁在推广许多关于AI的可怕叙事,那就是政治光谱极左翼的人。因为当你在一个人群中制造足够的恐惧时,人们就会呼吁政府干预并拯救他们。”

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>> One other point on this is I do think that if you look at kind of who's promoting a lot of these scary narratives about AI, it is people on the far left of the political spectrum. Because when you create enough fear in a population, the people cry out for government to intervene and save them.

他继续说:“我认为这并非巧合,再次强调,许多传播这种‘末日论’意识形态,并声称我们需要AI模型向政府报告更多事情的声音,这只是走向监视的一步,或者他们之前曾说过我们需要将DEI嵌入AI模型,或者我们需要AI模型来防止歧视,这实际上是他们做同样事情的后门。他们处于政治光谱的左翼。”

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>> And I don't think it's a coincidence that again that a lot of the the voices who are spreading this like doomer ideology and saying that we need the AI models to be reporting a lot more things to the government which is a stepping stone to surveillance or previously they had said we need to embed DEI in AI models or we need AI models to prevent discrimination which is kind of their back door for doing the same thing. They're on the left of the political spectrum.

他总结道:“我确实有点担心右翼人士正在以一种实际上可能导致我们正在谈论的‘奥威尔式’结果的方式接受这一点。嗯哼。我认为那些关心公民自由的右翼人士不应该希望政府在AI中扮演这种超级侵入性的角色,如果这说得通的话。”

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>> And I do kind of worry that people on the right are buying into this in a way that's actually going to lead to a lot of government intervention in a way that actually could lead to the orient outcomes that we're talking about. Mhm. I don't think that people on the right who are concerned about civil liberties should want the government to play this super intrusive role in AI, if that makes sense.

Tucker Carlson:“当然说得通。当然说得通。我认为美国现在有很多人突然对权力非常敏感,觉得自己的权力被侵蚀得如此剧烈,几乎荡然无存。他们的经济权力、政治权力、投票权、口袋里美元的购买力,所有这些都大大削弱了,然后突然出现了一种技术,承诺将权力进一步集中在他们以外的人手中。”

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>> Of course it does. Of course it does. I think you've got a lot of people suddenly in the United States who are very sensitive about power and feel like their own power has eroded so dramatically almost down to nothing. Their economic power, their political power, the power of their vote, the power of the dollar in their pocket like have all been really reduced and all of a sudden you have a technology that promises to concentrate power still further in the hands of people other than them.

他继续说:“所以他们对此很敏感。我是说,他们总体上确实很恐慌。”

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>> And so they're they're touchy about it. I mean they're definitely just freaked out in general.

Jason:“我同意。”

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>> I agree.

Tucker Carlson:“对。所以这就是背景。所以那些感到恐慌的人,我也有权力,但我仍然同情他们,并在某种程度上感受到了。”

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>> Right. So that's that's the backdrop. So people who feel panics like that and I'm I have power but I still I sympathize with it and I feel it to some extent

Jason:“你知道,当你感到那样时,你更容易接受末日情景,所以这会有帮助。是啊。”

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>> there you know you're more open to to dumer scenarios when you feel that way and so it would be helpful. Yeah

Tucker Carlson:“只是为了安抚人们,你们会受到保护,是的,这对你们有好处。是啊,看,我同意这一点,而且我认为实际上还有其他一些因素解释了这种批评的本能性质,因为我现在正受到很多批评,所以我看到了。嗯,其中之一是当人们听到AI时,他们认为那不是我。那不包括我,对吧?所以有所有这些据说正在创造的好处,但我不会参与其中。事实上,我甚至可能会失业。”

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>> just to reassure people you will be protected and yes there is an upside for you. Yeah, look, I I agree with that and I I think there's actually a couple other things that account for like the visceral nature of the criticism because I'm on the receiving end of a lot of it right now, so I I see it. Um, so one of them is when people hear AI, they think that's not me. Like that doesn't include me, right? So there's all these benefits that are so supposedly being created, but I'm not going to participate in that. In fact, I might even lose my job.

他总结道:“这就是为什么我认为传播关于整个国家如何可能从中受益,而不仅仅是硅谷一小撮人受益的信息非常重要。”

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>> This is why I think it's like pretty important to get out the message about how the whole country potentially benefits from this, not just a small click in Silicon Valley.

Jason问David Sacks:“Sacks,你有没有找到这方面的例子?比如国家如何从中受益?”

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>> Have you come up with examples of it, Sax? Like how the country benefits from it?

David Sacks回答:“嗯,当然。我是说,上周我们不是报道了一篇《华尔街日报》的文章,谈到建筑工人的工资因为数据中心建设而增加了30%吗?”

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>> Well, sure. I mean, there's an article that didn't we cover last week, the the Wall Street Journal talking about how construction workers have seen their wages increase 30%. Because of the data center buildout,

他继续说:“我是说,我们正在全国范围内看到一场巨大的基础设施繁荣,涉及能源生产和建筑,这与此相关。所以不仅仅是软件行业的人受益。但我想右翼人士非常本能的另一个原因是,坦率地说,他们对大型科技公司的仇恨。我是说,许多保守派影响者在这个时期直接受到审查和影子禁令,特别是在拜登政府时期,大型科技公司对他们施加压力并审查他们,现在仍然对大型科技公司充满仇恨。”

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>> I mean, we are seeing a huge infrastructure boom throughout the country on energy production and construction that's related to this. And so it's not just software where people are benefiting. But the other thing I think that's very visceral on the right is that the hatred of big tech quite frankly. I mean a lot of conservative influencers were directly censored and shadowbanned during this co period especially where the big tech companies you know in the b administration were really coming down on them and censoring them and there's still a lot of hatred towards big tech.

他补充道:“我认为其中一些甚至是被误导的,但几乎存在一种转移。此外,对于社交媒体,很多人担心社交媒体对孩子的影响,身体形象问题或者对在线捕食者的恐惧,所有这些。我认为这与AI聊天机器人不是一个类似的情况,因为你不是在与人见面,你是在做研究。这是一种完全不同的活动。但我认为几乎存在一种愤怒、焦虑或恐惧的转移,从过去一二十年社交媒体或这些在线平台发生的事情,转移到这些新的AI平台。”

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>> I think some of that's even misplaced, but there's been like almost like a transference. Also, with social media, a lot of people have concerns about what social media is doing to kids, body image concerns or fear of online predators, all that kind of stuff. And I don't think it's an analogous situation with AI chatbots because you're not meeting people, you're kind of doing research. It's like a whole different activity. But I think there's almost like a transference of anger or anxiety or fear from what happened over the last decade or two with social media or with again like these online platforms and that's being transferred over to these new AI platforms.

他总结道:“尽管我认为它们并不完全类似,而且监管应该有所不同。”

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>> Even though I don't think they're precisely analogous and the regulations should be looked at a little bit differently.

Chamath说:“Jason,让我给你一些肯定。我确实认为你抓住了问题的症结。无论我们称之为感知还是误解,重点是人们害怕失去工作。我同意你的看法。但我认为关于已经发生的事情的数据相当薄弱,它实际上已经导致了大量失业。”

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>> Let me Jason give you some credit. I do think you've put your finger on the pulse of what the problem is. Whether we call it a perception or a misperception, the point is people are afraid for jobs of their jobs. That I agree with you. I think the data about what has happened though is is pretty flimsy that it actually has seen a bunch of job loss.

他举例说:“例如,昨天晚上我们从圣诞派对回家后,Sacks,我打开CNBC,是Jim Cramer,他正在采访这位我以前从未听过他讲话的了不起的人,他是ServiceTitan的创始人兼董事长。他用一种非常优雅的方式描述了这一点,那就是AI会危及纯认知型工作。但当你将认知能力与身体灵巧性结合起来时,这些工作正在蓬勃发展。”

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>> For example, when we got home from the Christmas party, Sachs last night, I turned on CNBC and it was Jim Kramer and he was interviewing this wonderful guy who I'd never heard speak before, but he's the the founder and chairman of Service Titan. And he had this very elegant way of describing it, which is AI will put the jobs that are purely cognitive at risk. But when you marry cognitive ability with physical dexterity, those jobs are thriving.

他继续说:“他谈到了建筑工人、水管工、电工。事实上,这周我在阿布扎比时,我们正在谈论能源的转型,对吧?而且这些电工现在每年能赚50万、60万、70万、80万美元,顺便说一句,这比硅谷的大多数工程师都多。好吧,这些人才是真正赢家,但他们的故事没有被讲述,然后激励也不存在。所以有很多事情,我认为需要发生,以突出成功的案例在哪里。”

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>> And he talked about construction workers, plumbers, electricians. In fact, this week when I was in Abu Dhabi, we were talking about the transformation of power, right? and that these electricians now get paid five six 7 $800,000 a year which by the way just FYI is more than most engineers in Silicon Valley. Okay, these guys are the ones that are actually winning but the stories are not told and then the incentives aren't there. And so there's a bunch of things that I think need to happen to highlight where the success stories are.

他总结道:“它们不是人们会想到的明显地方。它不仅仅是一些工程师敲击键盘赚取数百万美元并让人们失业。那不是正在发生的事情。但我认为这个故事没有被讲述。所以对失业的明显恐惧是存在的。正如你所说,Jason,我确实同意你的看法。那是我们必须用数据和事实说服人们正在发生什么的主导叙事。肯定有一个领先于失业的叙事。问题是它会以什么速度发生?”

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>> They're not the obvious places that one would think. It's not just some engineer tickling the keyboard making millions of dollars and putting people out of work. That's not what's happening. But I don't think the story is told. And so the palpable fear of job loss is there. To your point, I do agree with you, Jason. That is the overriding narrative that we have to with data and facts convince people of what is actually happening. There is definitely a narrative that's ahead of the job loss. And the question is what pace will it happen at?

他继续说:“当人们看到年轻人很难找到工作,你知道,无论出于什么原因,但我怀疑是AI。当他们看到像亚马逊这样的公司估计未来将裁减60万个工作岗位,而这些消息泄露出来,并且他们将为此进行公关宣传时。当你看到免下车服务转向AI,当你看到旧金山和洛杉矶三分之一的乘车服务转向没有司机的Waymo时,真的很难说这没有发生。”

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>> when people are seeing young people having a hard time getting jobs and you know for whatever reason but I I I suspect it's AI when they see firms like Amazon estimating estimating in the future they're going to eliminate these 600,000 jobs and that leaks and that they're going to do a PR campaign about it when you see drive-throughs moving to AI and when you see a third of rides in San Francisco and LA move to Whimo without the driver in it it's really hard to say it's not happening so

他补充道:“我们只是在不同的时间线上。问题是它发生的时间线。你不能两头都占,你知道,这些公司正在筹集数十亿美元,它们正在取代工作岗位,并说:‘嘿,这些工作将效率提高10倍,或者我们将取代你的司机,我们将取代你的收银员。’”

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>> We're just on a different It's a matter of what timeline it's happening on. You can't have it both ways where, you know, these companies are raising billions of dollars and they're replacing jobs and saying, "Hey, these jobs are going to be 10 times more efficient or we're going to replace your driver and we're going to replace your cashier."

Chamath说:“我作为早期投资者和创始人大学(Founder University)的成员,我每天都看到这种情况。公司,等等,请让我说完,先生们。人们向我推销初创公司,这些初创公司获得了资金,专门用于取代某些职位,他们说:‘我们想打造完美的销售发展代表。我们想打造完美的客户支持代理。’企业客户也同意他们的看法,购买这些产品和服务,专门为了停止招聘和增加员工人数。我看到了前线的情况。这绝对正在发生。”

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>> I see that as an early stage investor in founder university. I see it every day. Company, hold on, let me finish, please, gentlemen. People are pitching me on startups and they're getting funded for these startups to specifically replace roles and they're saying, "We want to make the perfect sales development rep. We want to make the perfect customer support agent and enterprise customers are agreeing with them and buying these products and services specifically to stop hiring and increasing their headcount. I see it on the front lines. It is definitely happening.

他总结道:“唯一的区别是时间线,以及我们能否创造足够的就业机会?这就是为什么我认为我们解释得不好。我们需要解释,对于每一辆上路的机器人出租车,那个工作岗位消失了。”

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>> The only difference is timelines and can we create enough jobs? This is why I think we've done a bad job of explaining it. We need to explain for every one of those robo taxies that gets out there and that job is gone.

Jason:“我们如何让那个人找到另一份工作?因为他们不会再在星巴克找到收银员的工作了,因为那也将被AI取代。”

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>> How do we get that person another job? Because they're not going to get the job as a cashier at Starbucks anymore cuz that's going AI too.

Chamath说:“这里有一个非常实际的想法。昨天我在参议院只是谈论这个。这个想法是什么?我认为我们必须非常诚实地审视停止联邦政府对学生贷款的承保。为什么?因为它将允许市场非常迅速地适应你的现实,Jason。因为我们将超越仅仅资助某人成为一名高级电工。”

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>> Here's a very practical idea. Yesterday I was at the Senate to just talk about this. What is the idea? I think we have to start looking very honestly at stopping the federal underwriting of student loans. Why? Because it would allow the market to move very quickly to your reality, Jason. Because we would go beyond just funding somebody to become a master electrician.

他继续说:“我怀疑我们会付钱给人们。是的,我敢打赌,如果你去谷歌,他们不仅会补贴你,他们可能还会支付你工资,让你接受教育去做那份工作,因为一旦你毕业并能晋升为高级电工,谷歌、亚马逊、微软等公司需要的工作非常多。所以如果你取消了联邦政府的承保,我们没有对汽车保险进行承保。我们没有对房屋抵押贷款进行承保。”

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>> I suspect that we would pay people. Yes, I bet if you went to Google, they would not only subsidize you, they would probably pay you a salary to get educated to do that job because once you graduated and you could work up the ranks and become a master electrician, there is so much work that for example Google needs, Amazon needs, Microsoft needs. And so if you eliminated the federal underwriting, we don't have it for car insurance. We don't have it for home mortgages.

他总结道:“我们允许自由市场告诉我们,这所房子比那所房子风险更高,因为它靠近火灾区域。这个人比那个人开车技术更差。我们应该允许自由市场说去这种工作,你会得到很多报酬,但去那种学位,你会花很多钱。让人们更清楚地做出决定。但那件事将使我们能够以一种非常实际的方式,为很多人强化AI的经济优势,它将解决我们面临的学生债务危机。”

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>> We allow the free market to tell us this home is more risky than that home because it's near a fire area. This person is a poorer driver than that other person. We should allow the free market to say go to this kind of a job and you'll get paid so much, but go to this other kind of a degree. It will cost you a lot of money. And let people decide with more clarity. But that one thing would allow us to reinforce what the economic upside of AI is in a very practical way for a lot of people and it would solve this student debt crisis that we're in.

Jason问David Sacks:“Sacks,应该征收许可费或税吗?有人提出了这个想法。我不是说这是我的立场,但是否应该对机器人出租车或人形机器人征税,然后将这些税款用于再培训实际人类?”

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>> Sax, should there be a license fee or a tax? This has been floated by people. I'm not saying this is my position, but should there be a tax on having a robo taxi or a humanoid robot that is then used to retrain actual humans?

David Sacks回答:“看,我认为首先我们只需要从一些准确的事实开始。我们需要解释正在发生什么。其中一部分是揭穿围绕此的一些神话。现在,我记得大约一个月前,有一波非常可怕的头条新闻,包括在我非常喜欢的一家出版物《纽约邮报》(New York Post)上,声称AI正在对美国就业造成严重破坏。所以,这是上个月《纽约邮报》的一篇头条新闻,基于Challenger Gray的10月份报告,该报告基本上统计了经济中已宣布的裁员人数。”

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>> Look, I I think first we just need to start with some accurate facts here. And we need to explain what's what's happening. And part of that is debunking some myths around this. Now, I remember about a month ago there was a whole wave of very scary headlines, including in a publication I really like, the New York Post. Nick, maybe you can put this on the screen, claiming that AI was wreaking havoc on US jobs. So, this was a headline from the New York Post last month based on the October report from Challenger Gray, which basically tabulates announced layoffs in the economy.

他继续说:“我们在10月份出现了一个高峰,其中约20%归因于AI。这甚至不是大多数。实际上是一个相对较小的数字。它甚至不是首要原因。但基于此,你看到了一波恐慌性头条,称AI正在对美国就业造成严重破坏。嗯,瞧,11月份的Challenger Gray报告已经发布,它清楚地表明10月份是一个异常高峰。这个数字下降了53%,在全国范围内,11月份宣布的裁员中只有约6000人归因于AI。顺便说一句,这只是裁员。它不包括新创造的就业机会。”

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>> And we had a spike in October and about 20% of those were attributed to AI. It wasn't even the majority. It was actually a relatively small number. It wasn't even the number one reason. But based on this, you got a wave of scare headlines that AI was wreaking havoc on US jobs. Well, lo and behold, the November challenger grade report has come out and it makes clear that October was an anomalous spike. The number fell by 53% and only about 6,000 of the layoffs that were announced in November in the entire country were attributable to AI. This is only layoffs, by the way. It doesn't include job creations.

他补充道:“好吧,只有6000人。如果你查看Challenger Gray报告的年初至今数据,AI只占总裁员的4.7%。而且这个数字是CEO们自报的。所以我的猜测是它被夸大了,因为如果你是CEO,你宁愿把公司的业绩不佳归咎于AI,而不是自己。所以4.7%可能是一个高估的数字。所以我们实际上在数据中看到的是与AI相关的实际裁员数量非常少,耶鲁大学预算实验室(Yale Budget Lab)的一项新研究也证实了这一点,该研究调查了ChatGPT发布后的前33个月,称劳动力市场没有明显的 disruption(破坏)。”

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>> Okay, so only 6,000. And if you look at the year to date in the Challenger Gray report, AI has only accounted for 4.7% of total layoffs. And that number is self-reported by CEOs. So my guess is it's inflated because if you're a CEO, you'd rather blame AI for your company's non-performance rather than yourself. So 4.7% is probably the high number. So what we're actually seeing in the data is a very small number of actual layoffs related to AI and that was corroborated by a new study by Yale Budget Lab which looked at the first 33 months after the release of Chat GPT and it said there is no discernable disruption in the labor market.

他总结道:“好吧。所以我想这是一个非常重要的事实,无论你声称未来会发生什么,失业尚未发生。没有以任何有意义的数字发生,事实上,AI今年贡献了约一半的GDP增长。所以GDP增长约为4%。如果没有AI,这个数字将是2%。所以其中包含了大量的就业创造。你再次在建筑工人身上看到了这一点。所以AI正在以任何有意义的方式造成失业的情况并不存在。”

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>> Okay. So that's I think a really important fact is regardless of what you want to claim will happen in the future job loss has not happened yet. not in any meaningful numbers and in fact AI has been responsible for about half of GDP growth this year. So GDP growth is about 4%. That number would be at 2% if it weren't for AI. So within that is a lot of job creation. You see that again with construction workers. So it's just not the case that AI is creating job loss in any meaningful way right now.

他继续说:“人们会做这种‘莫特和贝利’(Motte and Bailey)式的论证,他们会说:‘嗯,AI正在造成大量的破坏。它正在造成严重破坏。’然后你指出这些事实,他们会说:‘不,不,我的意思是未来会发生。’但他们又会回到:‘嗯,不,它现在肯定正在发生,对吧?这种破坏是如此深刻。’所以看,我们都可以争论未来会发生什么,但现在还没有。如果你要谈论未来,时间框架非常重要,因为显然我们经济中一直存在技术变革,它确实改变了人们的工作。”

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>> And people do this Mott and Bailey thing where they're like, well AI is creating tons of disruption. It's wreaking havoc. And then you point these facts out and say, "No, no, I mean in the future it's going to." But then they revert to, "Well, no, it must be happening now, right? The disruption is so profound." So look, we can all argue about what's going to happen in the future, but right now it's not. And if you're going to talk about the future, the time frames matter a lot because obviously we've always had technological change in the economy and it does change people's job.

他补充道:“但如果这些变化发生在20或30年内,那与未来5年内发生的情况大不相同。我真的不认为你知道破坏会多快发生,以及人们将有多少时间来应对和创造新的就业机会。我给你举个例子。早在90年代,我记得他们说实体店将完全倒闭。那是99年第一次互联网泡沫破裂的部分原因,就是说,嘿,一切都将转向互联网。它将变成Pets.com而不是玩具反斗城(Toys R Us)等等。人们认为实体店将在5年内倒闭。嗯,实际上30年过去了,实体店仍然存在。我是说,它不是百视达(Blockbuster)。”

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>> But if those changes are happening over 20 or 30 years, that's very different than the next 5 years. And I really don't think you know how fast the disruption is going to be and how much time people are going to have to react and for new jobs to be created. I'll give you an example. Back in the 90s, I remember when they said that brick and mortar was going completely out of business. That was part of the reason why we had the first do bubble in 99 was that, hey, everything's going to the internet. It's going to go pets.com instead of Toys R Us and so forth and so on. And people thought that bricks and mortar was going to be out of business within 5 years. Well, it's literally 30 years later and bricks and mortar is still a thing. I mean, it's not blockbuster.

Tucker Carlson:“不,看,它不是一个好生意。我是说,亚马逊非常成功,你知道,你不会想拥有玩具反斗城,但实体店仍然存在。沃尔玛仍然存在。这种变化仍在进行中。我想这很可能就是这里会发生的情况,这项技术将创造一场生产力繁荣。我不认为它主要会造成失业。它将对我们的生活产生许多不同的影响,我们将有时间适应。我不认为这是一个两到三年的时间框架问题。”

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>> No, look, it hasn't been a great business. I mean, like, Amazon has been super successful and you know, you did not want to own Toys R Us, but bricks and mortar is still around. Walmart's still around. The change is still ongoing. And I think that's what's most likely going to happen here is this this technology is going to create a productivity boom. I don't think the main thing it's going to do is cause job loss. It's going to have lots of different impact on our lives and we're going to have time to adapt. I don't think this is a two to three year time frame thing.

Jason:“这将是我们一生中的辩论。我预测。”

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>> This will be the debate of our lifetimes. I predict

Tucker Carlson:“但看,我是说,如果我错了,我们会在未来5年内发现。但我真正抵制的是这种‘莫特和贝利’式的论证,人们会说这正在发生,然后他们会说不,不,这将在未来发生。请说清楚。”

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>> but look I mean if I'm wrong we'll find out in the next 5 years. But what I just really resist is this Mott and Bailey thing where people are like this is happening right now and then they no no this is going to happen in the future. Be clear.

Chamath说:“我想你错了。但我认为这个观点的总结如下:今天的事实并不支持悲观论。但人们的看法是他们很害怕。随之而来的是,我们作为一个行业,我实际上不怪你,因为你必须清理拜登时代留下的各种疯狂。所以我认为你做得很好。但我们的行业需要更好的发言人。我是说,我们在科技晚宴后谈过这个。需要有一种方式,让少数几个人能够真正清晰地代表未来。”

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>> I think you're wrong. But I think the summary of this point is the following which is the facts today don't bear out the bear case. But the perception is that people are afraid. And married with that is that we as an industry and I don't actually blame it on you because you had to clean up all kinds of craziness that the Biden era left. So I think you've done a great job. But our industry needs better spokesman. I mean, we talked about this after our tech dinner. There needs to be a way for a handful of people who can really represent the future in an articulate way

Jason:“让人们相信。我认为我们确实需要这样做。我们不能让这些公司的CEO们,一方面看起来可疑,另一方面又过于关注物质消费。那很糟糕。那看起来很糟糕。”

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>> that people believe. And I think we do need to do that. We can't have the CEOs of these companies seem either sketchy on the one hand or too focused on material consumption on the other. It's just bad. It's a bad look.

David Sacks:“我同意你的看法。但想想造成这种对AI的恐惧和怨恨的两个最大叙事。我会说是AGI叙事和时间框架,现在人们正在推迟它们。对。那是一个——有一个著名的项目叫做AI 2027,他们预测在2027年实现AGI,现在他们已经把时间框架推迟到2030年代。看,你知道,一旦你的时间框架超过10年,我们从科技行业知道,那么。”

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>> I agree with you. But think about the two biggest narratives that created this fear and resentment towards AI. I would say it's the AGI narrative and the time frames now are people are pushing them back. Right. That was there's one there's one called a famous project called AI 2027 where they were predicting AGI in 2027 and now they've pushed their time frames back into the 2030s. Look, you know, once your time frames are over 10 years, we know from the tech industry then

Jason:“你不知道。你不知道。但那是AGI和失业,以及我说的当前深刻的破坏和失业。我认为这两个叙事在过去几个月里都被揭穿了。”

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>> you have no idea. You have no idea. But it was that it was AGI and job loss and and I would say current current profound disruption and job loss. And both those narratives I think have been debunked in the last several months.

Chamath说:“最后一张图表,Nick,你可以把它放出来。这只是联邦政府的数据。16到24岁年轻人的失业率。这是我认为你应该关注的。1月份是9%,现在是10.5%。我认为这张图表将直接上升到14%。这只是我的预测,我认为这是因为AI。Tucker,我将把最后的想法留给你,然后我们将开始大家最喜欢的游戏,‘20秒Tucker’,我们将与Tucker Carlson进行闪电问答。‘20秒Tucker’即将开始。对此有什么最后的想法吗?”

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>> Final chart, Nick, you can pull it up here. This is just Fred. Unemployment rate 16 to 24 year olds. This is the one I think you should watch. 9% in January, now 10 a.5%. I think this chart's going right up to 14%. Just my prediction and I think it's because of AI. Tucker, I'll give you the final thoughts on this and then we're going to start everybody's favorite game, Tucker in 20 where we do a lightning round with Tucker Carlson. Tucker in 20 coming up. Any final thoughts on this?

Tucker Carlson回答:“嗯,我只是在思考后果。我是说,经历了Y2K(千年虫问题:指在2000年到来时,许多计算机系统可能因日期表示方式而出现故障的问题)和奥巴马时代,我们认为Y2K会是一场灾难。人们认为奥巴马会很棒。两者,你知道,都与我们想象的相反。”

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>> Well, I was just thinking about the consequence of I mean, having lived through Y2K and Obama, Y2K we thought was going to be a disaster. Obama people thought was going to be great. Both, you know, were the opposite of what we imagined.

他继续说:“我不知道是否有可能预测这会产生什么影响。但我想我唯一担心的是,我只是觉得所有人,特别是男性,都需要感到有用,而关于AI的对话中,最让我感到不适的不是AGI那些东西,那些对我来说总是有点奇幻。而是UBI(Universal Basic Income: 无条件基本收入)。那种你可以付钱给人们让他们感到满足或什么的观念。”

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>> I don't know that it's possible to predict the effects of this. But I guess my one worry which I would just I I think that people all people especially men need to feel useful and the thing that's offended me most about the about the AI conversation is not the AGI stuff which always seemed a little bit fantastical to me. It's the it's UBI. It's the idea you could just like pay people to be content or something.

他总结道:“作为在继承财富和福利环境中长大的人,你知道,两者都是一枚硬币的两面。人们需要感到自己在贡献,他们的生活有意义。我不知道。我只是希望人们能多思考这个问题。”

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>> And having grown up both around inherited money and welfare, you know, both are, you know, two sides of the same coin. People need to feel like they're contributing and that their lives have meaning. And I don't know. I just hope I hope people are thinking about that a lot.

Jason:“是啊,我同意你的看法。”

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>> Yeah, I agree with you.

David Sacks:“顺便说一句,我认为整个UBI叙事,我想Sam几年前还在推广这个。”

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>> By the way, that that whole UBI narrative, I think Sam was like towning that a couple years ago.

Jason:“他资助了它。他资助了一项研究。”

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>> He funded it. He funded a study.

David Sacks:“这让整个事情变得更糟,因为再次强调,它迎合了这样一个想法,即每个人都将被解雇,这是一件好事,你将从政府那里获得福利。谁会想要那样呢?你知道,如果那不是你想要的一方。现在,我是说,我是说我与右翼朋友们的分歧在于,我只是不认为那会发生。我是说,我可能错了,但我只是不认为那正在发生。它还没有发生。我不认为那会发生。但看,我非常同意他们关于那个世界不合意之处的看法。”

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>> It made this whole thing so much worse because again, it was playing into this idea that everyone's going to be put out of work and that's a good thing and you'll just get welfare from the government. And who would want that? You know, it's not if that's not the side you want. Now, I mean I mean where I disagree with my friends on the right is I just don't think that's what's gonna happen. I mean, I could be wrong, but I just don't think that's what's happening. It hasn't happened yet. I don't think that's what's going to happen. But look, I agree with them about the undesirability of that world very much.

闪电问答:地缘政治与社会议题

Jason说:“好了,‘20秒Tucker’,你对委内瑞拉有什么看法?这些船只,然后扣押油轮?我们为什么要这样做?Tucker,我们为什么在委内瑞拉如此活跃?”

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>> All right, Tucker and 20, your thoughts on You can take up to 30 seconds, but Tucker and 20 sounds better. Tucker in 20. What do you think of Venezuela uh these boats and then seizing the oil tanker? Why are we doing this? Why are we so active in Venezuela, Tucker?

Tucker Carlson回答:“完全不知道。但我确实知道,如果它变成一场真正的战争,人们会感到震惊,那是这个国家最不需要的事情。”

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>> No freaking idea. But I do know that if it becomes a real war, people are going to be shocked and it's the last thing the country needs.

David Sacks说:“我是说,战争的首要要求是向你的人民解释你为什么要这样做。即使你在撒谎。即使是像:‘哦,他们有大规模杀伤性武器。我们入侵后会找到它们。’”

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>> There's I mean the the number one requirement of war is that you explain to your population why you're doing it. Even if you're lying about it. Even if it's like, "Oh, they have weapons of mass destruction. We'll find them once we invade."

他继续说:“每个人都嘲笑那句话,但至少那是一个真实的理由,让国家能够团结起来支持入侵。那个基础还没有打好。毒品问题,每个人都反对毒品。正如我们所知,它们主要不是来自委内瑞拉。所以它们来自墨西哥。我不是在主张入侵墨西哥。可能有一个与委内瑞拉开战的好理由,但我想现在是时候推出它了,如果事实上我们要开战的话。我的感觉是我们可能不会。这都是为了让马杜罗(Maduro)离开。我不认为他会离开。所以,我希望我们能接受这一点。但我只是不认为现在是南美洲进行地面战的时候。”

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>> Everyone mocks that, but at least it was like a real rationale that allowed the country to unite behind the invasion. That groundwork has not been laid. The drug stuff, everyone's against drugs. They're not coming from Venezuela primarily, as we know. So, they're coming from Mexico. I'm not advocating for an invasion of Mexico. There may be a good reason to have a war with Venezuela, but I think it's it would be now would be the time to roll it out if in fact we are going to have one. My sense is we're probably not. This is all an effort to get Maduro to leave. I don't think he's leaving. So, I hope we can live with that. But I I just don't think right now is the time for a ground war in South America.

Jason问Tucker Carlson:“你一直对卡塔尔(Qatar)成为美国更深层次的盟友的可能性感到非常兴奋,而且你正在那里买房。呃,你为什么这么,你为什么这么。”

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>> You've been very excited about the potential of Qatar being a deeper ally of the United States and you're buying a place there. Uh why are you so why are you soar to mix?

Tucker Carlson回答:“我不是,我不是。我是说,当然,任何去过海湾地区的人都可以告诉你那里正在发生一些惊人的事情。这不仅仅是关于金钱。这是关于开放性,但我是美国人。我不会去任何地方。我只有一个护照。我在卡塔尔买房。简单地说,我曾被攻击为卡塔尔的工具,被卡塔尔收买。我从未从卡塔尔或任何其他人那里拿过一美元。我没有投资者,也没有债务。所以,我不喜欢从别人那里拿钱,但我想反过来,成为卡塔尔的净投资者,以控制卡塔尔的宣传,以便说:‘不,他们没有收买我。我收买他们了。’我正在给他们发短信,他们正在重复我的谈话要点,那是我一签完房产就打算说的话。”

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>> I'm not I'm not I mean of course anyone who who travels to the Gulf can tell you there's something amazing happening there. And it's not just about money. It's about openness, but I'm an American. I'm not going anywhere. I have one passport. I'm buying a house in guitar. To make the simple point, I've been attacked for being a tool of guitar paid by guitar. I've never taken a dollar from Qar or anyone else. I have no investors and no debt. So, I'm not into taking money from people, but I wanted to turn it around and be a net investor in Qar in order to take control of Qatari propaganda in order to say, "No, they haven't bought me. I've bought them." and I'm texting them my talking points and they're repeating them and that's what I plan to say the second I close on my house.

Jason问:“呃,Candace Owens,Charlie Kirk的暗杀阴谋论。你有什么看法?”

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>> Uh Candace Owen, Charlie Kirk's assassination, conspiracy theory. What's your take?

Tucker Carlson回答:“我认为这很重要,我是说,最终,联邦执法部门的职责是找出谁做了这件事,然后以一种合理且可证明的方式向公众解释。我真的希望这能很快发生。所以他们是部分原因,就像任何——我是说我曾是一名犯罪记者。我写过一本书。在任何犯罪事件的余波中,都会有异常、奇怪的巧合、你无法完全解释的事情。我是说,你越仔细地看任何事情,它就越复杂。”

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>> I think it's important for I mean look, in the end it's the job of federal law enforcement to find out who did it and then explain it to the public in a way that makes sense and can be proven. And I really hope that will happen soon. So they're they're part like in any any I mean I was a crime reporter. I wrote a book on this. There's in any aftermath of any crime, there are anomalies, weird coincidences, things you can't fully explain. I mean, the closer you look at anything, the more complex it reveals itself to be.

他继续说:“所以这里当然也是如此。但由于我们朋友被谋杀的性质,嗯,我认为确保公众了解是谁做了这件事以及为什么做这件事就显得尤为重要。而且我要说,FBI(联邦调查局)的公信力不高。这不是Cash Patel和Dan Bongino的错。他们继承了一个基本上没有公信力的机构,这个机构有制造犯罪的记录。所以,仅仅说FBI说了什么是不够的。你必须解释是如何得出结论的。”

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>> So, that's certainly true here. But because of the nature of this murder of our friend, um, I think it's all the more important to make sure the public understands who did this and and why. And I would say the FBI doesn't have a lot of credibility. It's not the fault of Cash Patel and Dan Banchino. They inherited an agency with basically no credibility that's has a documented history of manufacturing crime. So like it's not enough to say the FBI says it. You have to explain how.

他总结道:“我甚至不怀疑他们正在提出的核心论点。但如果他们告诉我这是一个单独的枪手,没有其他人牵涉到这起犯罪中,我认为问他们是如何得出这个结论的,以及他们是否调查了这方面、那方面以及其他方面是公平的。我认为我们不应该被吓倒而不问这些问题。这些不是不爱国的问题。这些问题,我认为,呃,你知道,表达了我们对Charlie Kirk的敬意。这是纪念他以及任何被谋杀的美国人的一种方式。所以。”

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>> And I'm not even doubting the the core case they're making. But if they are telling me that this was a lone gunman, that no one else was implicated in this crime, I think it's fair to ask like how did you reach that conclusion? And did you look at this that and the other thing? And I don't think we should be intimidated out of asking those questions. Those are not unpatriotic questions. Those are questions that I think uh you know express our uh reverence for Charlie Kirk. This is a way to honor him and any American who's murdered. So

Jason:“抱歉。顺便说一句,就此而言,如果有人还没有看过Tucker关于宾夕法尼亚州巴特勒枪击案的纪录片。”

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>> sorry. By the way, just on this if anybody has not watched Tucker's documentary Yep. about the Butler, Pennsylvania shooter, I can't remember his name.

Tucker Carlson:“我们反正会记住那个名字。所以请不要问任何问题。”

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>> We're memorizing that anyway. So, please don't ask any questions.

Jason:“是啊。那发生了什么?天哪。我觉得你的纪录片很棒。值得一看。”

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>> Yeah. What happened with that? Jeez. I thought your documentary was pretty kick-ass. Worth.

Tucker Carlson:“嗯,谢谢。我是说,看。”

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>> Well, thank you. And it just I mean it look

Jason:“真的很好。”

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>> it was really good.

Tucker Carlson:“我们问了明显的问题,但得不到直接的答案。我确实认为,你做得更多。我必须给你肯定,因为你能够清除互联网搜索记录。你回溯到了时光机。那里有一定程度的细节,因为我的解释是,你们似乎害怕被所有人嘲笑。所以你们努力确保这些东西是无可辩驳的事实。你在其中展现的细节程度是我很久没有在调查性研究作品中看到的。我确实鼓励人们观看。我觉得它非常好。”

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>> We we asked obvious questions, couldn't get straightforward answers. I do think the more you did more than this. I have to give you credit because you were able to scrub internet searches. You went back to the way back machine. There was a level of detail because my interpretation was it seemed like you guys were afraid of just getting sh on from everybody. And so you went to the point of making sure that this stuff was irrefutable fact. And you had a level of detail in there, which I hadn't seen in an investigative research piece in a long time. I do encourage people to watch it. I thought it was very good.

Tucker Carlson:“嗯,被普遍憎恨的好处是它能让你保持更高的标准,嗯,因为你不能犯太多错误。不,但我们不能有太多,你知道,引人注目的谋杀案或谋杀未遂案,却没有坚定、可信的解决方案。社会结构无法承受这一点,因为那样人们就会在思维上变得完全后现代,不相信任何事情。所以,这取决于联邦当局来安抚我们。”

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>> Well, the good news about being universally hated is it keeps your standards higher um because you can't afford, you know, to make too many mistakes. No, but we can't have too many, you know, high-profile murders or attempted murders that don't have firm, believable resolutions. The the the social fabric can't handle that because then people become totally postmodern in their thinking and don't believe anything. So, that's incumbent on federal authorities to reassure us.

Jason问:“Tucker,如果你在中期选举中领导共和党竞选,你会做同样的事情吗?你会做更多什么,更少什么?”

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>> Tucker, if you are running the Republican campaign going into the midterms, what do you do the same? What do you do more of and what do you do less of? Well, I would, you know, I' I'd

Tucker Carlson回答:“嗯,我会,你知道,我会专注于国内经济问题,排除其他一切。我会,嗯,我认为那是主要担忧。它总是主要担忧。现在,我正在进入非常平庸的领域,因为我正在重复过去100年来美国政治中每一个,呃,你知道,显而易见的观察。”

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>> focus on domestic economic issues to the exclusion of everything else. I would and um I would I think that's that's the main concern. It's always the main concern. Now, I'm entering into very benal territory because I'm repeating every uh you know obvious observation in the past 100 years in American politics.

他继续说:“但人们确实关心这一点,他们也很担忧。AI是其中一部分,可能不是在它的现实中,而是在它的预期中,以及人们对未来即将发生的事情的恐惧。嗯,所以我会尝试解决这些问题,至少通过解释它们。我确实认为,就像,嗯,我从事解释工作,所以我会有偏见,但80%的问题——这在婚姻、育儿和治理中也是如此。你需要解释你在做什么,将要发生什么。”

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>> But people do care about that and they are concerned. AI is part of that probably not in its reality but in its expectation and it's the fears that people have about what's coming. Um, and so I would I would try to address those issues at least by explaining them. I do think like well I'm in the explaining business so I'm biased but 80% of the problem this is true in marriage and child rearing and governing as well. You need to explain what you're doing, what's going to happen.

他总结道:“我会给你打针。从10开始倒数。到7你就会睡着。醒来时你就会康复。就像他们在手术中告诉你的那样。他们那样告诉你是有原因的。他们不会只是把你推进一个黑暗的房间,然后开始给你注射东西。他们会引导你完成整个过程。这非常令人安心。事实上,这至关重要。所以,我们只是需要所有人,而不仅仅是政府,更多地这样做,那些拥有平台的人解释到底发生了什么,因为我们正在进入一个信任极其稀缺的境地,那很糟糕。那会造成波动。”

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>> I'm going to give you the shot. Count backwards from 10. By seven you're going to be asleep. When you wake up you'll be fixed. Like that's what they tell you in surgery. And they tell you that for a reason. They don't just roll you into a dark room and start injecting you with stuff. They walk you through it. And that's enormously reassuring. In fact, it's critical. And so, we just need a lot more of that from everyone and not just government, but people with a platform explaining what the hell is going on because we're getting to a place where trust is vanishingly rare and that's bad. That creates volatility.

Jason问:“在与Milo Yiannopoulos进行了3个小时的谈话后,同性恋是天性还是后天培养,是一种创伤反应吗?David Friedberg想知道,你为什么这么同性恋?”

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>> After 3 hours with Milo Yiannopoulos, is homosexuality nature or nurture a trauma response? And David Freeberg wants to know, why are you so gay?

另一位主持人:“你为什么是同性恋?”

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>> Why are you gay?

Tucker Carlson:“你为什么是同性恋?我只是想做一次采访,我可以引用我最喜欢的,呃,尼日利亚人,但是,嗯,不,我是说,嗯,显然它不是天性,至少不是主要的,否则我们就不会看到它的绝对上升,也不会有任何基因负责它的迹象。我是说,从人类基因组的解码中,已经分离出如此多不同的,嗯,你知道,基因表现,而我们却没有,你知道,所以不,显然它主要是,嗯,后天培养。”

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>> Why are you gay? I just wanted to do an interview where I could quote my favorite uh Nigerian but um no I mean well clearly it's not nature at least primarily or we wouldn't be having an absolute rise in it and there would be some hint of a gene responsible for it. I mean so many different um you know genetic manifestations have been isolated from the from the decoding of the human genome and that we're not you know so no clearly it is primarily um nurture.

他继续说:“那不是对任何人的攻击,这并没有让它变得不真实,我不是说它是假的,当然它与假相反,它非常非常真实,嗯,它甚至不是一个价值判断,它只是一个观察。我认为在性取向和性别问题上,最好是去政治化。它已经被政治化得太严重了,你甚至无法进行诚实的对话,否则你就会受到四面八方的攻击。那对任何人有什么帮助呢?没有。所以,最好是尽可能冷静和理性地看待这个问题。努力找到真相,然后让人们自己决定如何处理它。我是说,那是我对所有事情的看法,但现在是时候以这种方式对待性取向了。”

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>> that's not an attack on anyone doesn't make it any less real I'm not saying it's fake of course it's the opposite of fake it's very very real um and it's not even a value judgment it's just an observation I I think on the question of sexuality and gender it's best to depoliticize it. It's been so politicized, you can't even have an honest conversation about it or you get attacked from all sides. That how does that help anyone? It doesn't. And so, it's best just to look at this as cooly and as rationally as you can. Try to get to the truth and then allow people to make their own decisions about what to do with it. I mean, that's my view of everything really, but but it's time to take that approach to sexuality.

Jason:“好的,最后一个。我们应该留在北约(NATO: North Atlantic Treaty Organization)吗?美国应该退出北约吗?”

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>> Okay, final one. Should we be in NATO? Should America pull out of NATO?

Tucker Carlson回答:“当然,我们不应该留在北约。什么?那不是——我以为这些是难题。没错。我有时会给你一点助攻。我让你扣篮。”

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>> Of course, we shouldn't be in NATO. What? That's not I thought these were hard questions. Exactly. I give you sometimes I give you a little alleyoop. I let you dunk the ball.

Jason:“我们为什么要留在北约?北约是我们参与过的最具破坏性的力量,远超联合国。”

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>> Why would we be in NATO? NATO is like the single most destructive force that we're a part of way more than the UN.

另一位主持人:“我们应该支持以色列并给他们武器吗?”

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>> should we support Israel and give them weapons.

Tucker Carlson:“这取决于为了什么,你知道。”

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>> It depends for what you know

Jason:“在加沙作战,他们应该是我们在该地区的第一合作伙伴吗?”

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>> fight in Gaza and should they be our number one partner in the region?

Tucker Carlson:“我想,或者说是世界上最重要的合作伙伴。我认为我们所有的联盟都应该通过一个单一的视角进行评估和重新评估:这是否对美国有利?在具体情况下,我当然不反对与以色列结盟,我也不反对向以色列提供武器?再次强调,这取决于它们被用于什么。但我确实认为在加沙发生的事情对美国一点帮助都没有。我是说,告诉我它有什么帮助?嗯,所以,是啊,事实上,我甚至不确定它对美国有帮助的论点会是什么。我从未听过有人阐述过。”

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>> I think or the partner in the world really. I think I think all of our alliances should be assessed and now reassessed through a single lens. Does this help the United States and in the specific instance I'm certainly not against being allied with Israel and I'm not against supplying Israel with weapons? Again, it depends what they're being used for. But I do think what's happened in Gaza does not help the United States at all. I mean, tell me how it does. And um so yeah, I in fact, I'm not even sure what the argument that it has helped the United States would be. I've never heard it articulated.

他继续说:“相反,我听到的是人们互相谩骂。你知道,从我的角度来看,那是我唯一关心的事情。我明白了。我从未想过要进行这场辩论。我多年来一直避免它。我之所以参与其中,唯一的原因是伊朗可能发生政权更迭战争。我只是觉得,天哪,那对我们一点帮助都没有。所以,我发声说了些什么,从那以后我的生活就一团糟。但我的观点没有改变。这对美国是好是坏?”

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>> Instead, I've heard people name calling. You know, from my perspective, that's all I care about. And I got it. I never wanted to have this debate. I avoided it for many years. The only reason I get into it was the prospect of a of a regime change war in Iran. And I just thought, man, there is no way that helps us in any way. So, I piped up and said something and my life has been a disaster ever since. But my views have not changed. Is it good for the US or not?

Jason:“欧洲和英国的未来是什么?”

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>> What is the future of Europe and the UK?

Tucker Carlson回答:“哦,太黑暗了。我在那里有家人。我刚刚去过那里。我是说,刚刚去过那里,嗯,我,你知道,让我从好消息开始说吧。我是说,每个人都知道所有这些,所以我不会重复任何内容,除了说欧洲人,甚至德国人,我昨天和德国最有权势的人之一谈过这件事,他们终于开始意识到,哇,这根本进展不顺利。而且,移民——有很多问题,但移民是核心问题。第二是能源。他们犯了巨大的错误。他们几十年来一直在自残。”

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>> Oh, it's so dark. I have family there. I was just there. I mean just there um I you know I let me start with the good news. I mean, everyone knows all of this, so I'm not going to repeat any of it other than to say finally Europeans, even the Germans, I spoke to one of the most powerful people in Germany yesterday about this, are starting to realize, wow, this is not going well at all. And and migration is there are many problems, but migration is the core problem. The second is energy. And they've made massive mistakes. They've committed self harm over decades.

他继续说:“我们可以争论他们为什么这样做,但人们越来越意识到他们确实这样做了。我最近在奥斯陆,钓鲑鱼。你去挪威。我是斯堪的纳维亚人,所以我很关注。他们只谈论瑞典。当然,每个人都一直很尊敬瑞典,因为它很大,工业化程度高。你知道,挪威曾尊敬瑞典。现在你去挪威,挪威人都会说:‘老兄,我们绝不会成为瑞典,开放边境并毁灭自己。’所以我认为欧洲人终于意识到了这一点,那是一种福气。是不是太晚了?”

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>> We can argue about why they did that, but there's a growing realization that they did. I was in Oslo this uh pretty recently, salmon fishing. And you go to Norway. I'm Scandinavian, so I pay attention. And all they talk about is Sweden. And of course, everyone's always kind of looked up to Sweden because it's huge and industrialized. And you know, Norway looked up to Sweden. Now you go to Norway and the Norwegians all say, "Man, the one thing we're not going to do is become Sweden and open our borders and destroy ourselves." So I think the Europeans are finally catching on to this and that's a blessing.

Jason:“我希望不会。也许芬兰和挪威抓住了。是啊,他们很早就抓住了,说我们每年只能合理地接纳这么多人进入社会。”

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>> Is it too late? I hope not. Maybe Finland and Norway caught it. Yeah, they caught it early and said we can only have this many people come in each year reasonably as a society.

Tucker Carlson:“没那么早。他们把奥斯陆搞得一团糟。奥斯陆不是它应该有的样子。但是,是啊,我是说它没有完全被毁。所以,是啊。”

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>> It's not that early. They've they've made a mess of Oslo. Oslo is a is not what it should be. But yeah, I mean it's not totally destroyed. So yeah.

Tucker Carlson的新产品与个人观点

Jason说:“好了,听着,当Tucker有新产品或服务时,呃,他会打电话给他的小伙子Jason,我们进行一点相互支持。你今天,呃,显然正在推出一些白银或黄金。”

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>> All right. Listen, when Tucker has a new product or service in the world, uh we he calls his boy Jal and we do a little mutual support. You're today uh launching uh some silver or gold apparently.

Tucker Carlson回答:“基本上,我们正在以尽可能接近批发价的价格出售黄金。”

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>> Basically, we are selling gold as close to wholesale as we possibly can.

Jason:“好的。和往常一样,这是对所有正在发生的黄金骗局的反击。但人们应该能够轻松地在互联网上购买实物黄金,只需支付少量透明的加价。你不应该需要打电话,然后被骗去购买一枚纪念币,你知道,每盎司8000美元或什么的,是现货价格的两倍。嗯,所以这就是想法。而且,呃,我们开业两周以来,进展非常顺利。”

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>> Okay. And it's as usual a reaction against all the gold scams going on. But people should be able to easily buy physical gold with a minor transparent markup on the internet. You shouldn't have to call a number so you're fooled into buying a commemorative coin for, you know, eight grand an ounce or whatever, twice spot price. Um, so that's that's the idea. And uh and it's gone really well in the two weeks we've been open.

Chamath:“形式因素是什么?它们是1盎司的硬币还是你们。”

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>> What's the form factor? Are they It's It's like 1 oz coins or you guys

Tucker Carlson:“嗯,你可以购买任何一种贵金属。嗯,我个人长期以来都是1盎司硬币的买家。事实证明这是一条不错的路。我想说,我认识的所有人都嘲笑我。所有和我一起上大学的金融精英都,你知道,嘲笑我。你是个黄金虫。你疯了。嗯,是啊,我确实把它埋在我的院子里,因为我就是那种人,原始人。嗯,但事实证明这是一件好事。不,你可以用铲子购买。”

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>> Well, you can you can buy any kind of precious metal. Um I I am a personally a 1oz coin buyer of long-standing. Turned out to be a pretty good route. I would say I was much mocked by everyone I know. All the finance sophisticates I went to college with were, you know, making fun of me. You're a gold bug. You're crazy. Um and yeah, I do bury it in my yard because that's the kind of man I am, primitive. Um, but it has turned out to be a good thing. No, you can buy with a shovel.

Chamath:“哦,嗯,我想过这个问题,Chamath。我还把数百万个滚珠轴承撒在我家后院。所以,祝你的金属探测器好运。”

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>> Oh, well, I've I've thought that through, Chima. I've also scattered millions of ball bearings around my backyard. So, good luck with your metal detector.

Jason:“那太棒了。”

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>> That's so awesome.

Tucker Carlson:“顺便说一句,我不是在开玩笑。”

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>> I'm not kidding. By the way,

Jason:“还将在2026年推出,呃,Tucker Carlson的烤豆和肥肉。当你在狂野西部淘金时,你可以得到你的——我能说点奇怪的吗?我曾经在一家烤豆工厂工作,实际上是1988年在缅因州波特兰的B&M烤豆公司,那个夏天,从那以后我再也没吃过烤豆,因为我制作了它们,而且我烤豆吃太多了,但总的来说,它们很好吃。”

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>> also coming in 2026, uh, Tucker Carlson's baked beans and fat. When you're prospecting out in the Wild West, you can get your Can I hear something weird? I used to work in a baked bean factory, actually, B&M baked beans in Portland, Maine in 1988, and for the summer, and I've never eaten a baked bean since because I made them and I I ODed on baked beans, but in general, they're good.

另一位主持人:“去Battalion Medals买一枚金币吧。”

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>> Go buy yourself a gold coin at Battalion Medals.

Chamath:“我认为这是一个很棒的主意。我必须非常诚实地告诉你。嗯。”

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>> I think this is a great idea. I have to be really honest with you. M

他继续说:“我确实认为,将此作为一种实际对冲,我们都需要了解一系列要素来对冲现状,而且有很多理由拥有加密货币、黄金。”

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>> I do think that having this as a practical hedge, there's like a whole set of elements that we all have to be educated on to hedge the status quo and there are lots of reasons to own cryptocurrencies, gold.

Jason:“我很高兴你这样做,因为大多数人做这件事的方式完全是。”

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>> I'm glad you're doing this because the way that this is done for most people is completely

Chamath:“疯了,而且这些网站,不像你的,通常直接卖给零售商,做得不好。所以,我很高兴你这样做。我希望它能成功。谢谢你。让我再说一句,木柴和弹药也很好。如果你想分散你的投资组合,我认为这些不是更好的选择。”

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>> bonkers and these sites unlike yours that typically sell direct to retail do not do a good job. So, I'm glad you're doing it. I hope it's a success. Thank you. And let me put also put in a good word for firewood and ammunition. I don't think those are better if you want to diversify your portfolio.

David Sacks:“还有,两口井。你必须有两口井,而不仅仅是一口。不同的深度。那是我牧场上的两口井。”

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>> Also, two wells. You got to have two wells, not just one. Different depths. That's what I have on the ranch. Two wells.

Jason:“看,我认为这会非常成功。呃,恭喜你,Tucker。我认为这将是一次非常成功的冒险,因为你与你的听众之间有很多信任,如果你要卖黄金,那是最重要的事情,人们只是想知道这是否100%合法。”

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>> Look, I think this is going to be very successful. Uh, congratulations, Tucker. I think this will be a very successful venture because you have a lot of trust with your audience and if like you're going to sell gold, like that's the most important thing is people just want to know that this is like 100% legit

Tucker Carlson:“纯金。”

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>> pure gold. And

Jason:“你日常携带什么?”

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>> what's your daily carry?

Tucker Carlson:“他们能得到的最低价格。”

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>> And the lowest price they can get.

Jason:“你日常携带什么?你日常在牧场或其他地方携带什么?你日常。”

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>> What's your daily what's your daily carry? What do you What do you carry around the the the ranch or whatever? What's your daily

Tucker Carlson:“我携带多少黄金?”

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>> How much do I carry in gold?

Jason:“不。你的手枪是什么?你的武器是什么?你身边带着什么?”

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>> No. What's your what's your pistol? What's your piece? What do you keep on your side?

Tucker Carlson:“哦,我携带一把Ruger LCR .38特种口径的左轮手枪。我喜欢左轮手枪,因为它不会意外走火并阉割你。所以,是的,那是我个人。”

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>> Oh, I carry a Ruger LCR in 38 special. I like the revolver cuz it doesn't go off accidentally and castrate you. So, yes, that's personally

Jason:“100% Ruger。它很棒。”

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>> 100 Ruger. It's a great

Tucker Carlson:“好吧,所以人们喜欢这些大容量的击针式手枪,但我只是一个左轮手枪爱好者。每个人都嘲笑我,但这就是我的感觉。”

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>> Okay, so people like these highcapacity striker fire handguns and I just I'm a revolver man. Everyone makes fun of me, but that's how I feel.

Jason:“不,你知道吗?你把那把左轮手枪放在水池底部三年,拿出来,锤一些钉子,然后开火。它仍然能开火,老兄。”

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>> No, you know what? You leave that revolver in the bottom of a pool for three years, take it out, hammer some nails, and then fire it. Still fires, dude.

Tucker Carlson:“我是这里的自由主义者。真的吗?你没说。”

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>> I'm the liberal here. Really? You don't say

Jason:“我是一个温和派。他们说自由主义者是为了让人们继续收听。好了,各位。”

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>> I'm a I'm a moderate. They say liberal to keep people tuning in. All right, everybody.

Chamath:“当他卖广告时,他是个自由主义者。当他花钱时,他是个保守主义者。我住在德克萨斯州的牧场上,随身携带枪支,我是唯一一个这样做的人。所以我们到此为止。但你永远不知道。我可能有一些。”

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>> When he's selling ads, he's a liberal. When he's spending his money, he's a conservative. I live I'm the only guy who lives in Texas on a ranch and carries a firearm. So, we'll just leave it at that. But, you never know. I might have some

Jason:“这家伙要搬到德克萨斯州。他过着双重生活。”

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>> This guy moving to Texas. He's living two lives.

Chamath:“他过着双重生活。每次他乘坐私人飞机时,他都是保守主义者,但每次他必须和人说话时,他都过着。”

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>> He's living two lives. Every time he gets on a PJ, he's a conservative, but every time he has to talk to people, he's living

Jason:“PC-24和Phenom 300是很棒的飞机。我们上周末举办了假日派对。希望你当时在,Tucker。Tony Hinchcliffe把场地烧了。我们做了一场现场‘杀死Tony’。有点挖苦。大家玩得很开心。非常感谢我们的三个合作伙伴。OKX提供了礼品套装,定制蜡烛深受粉丝喜爱。此外,他们还有一个非常高雅的牛奶和饼干吧。Google Cloud赞助了所有VIP空间,提供美味鸡尾酒。Google Cloud的朋友们做得很好。我们下周在你们最喜欢的播客All-In播客上再见。爱你们,伙计们。谢谢,Tucker。”

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>> in the PC24 and the Phenom 300 are great planes. And we had our holiday party last weekend. Wish you were there, Tucker. Tony Hingcliffe burned the place down. We did a live kill Tony. A little bit of roasting. A good time was had by all. Major thanks to our three partners. OKX hooked up the gifting suite, custom candles that fans loved. Also, they had a really classy milk and cookie bar. I ran sponsored all the VIP spaces with great cocktails. And Google Cloud built out an amazing lounge with spiked hot chocolate and other holiday drinks. Well done to our friends at Google Cloud. We will see you all next week on your favorite podcast, The All-In Podcast. Love you boys. Thanks, Tucker.

Tucker Carlson:“再见。”

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>> Bye-bye.

Chamath:“谢谢你们。再见。”

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>> Thank you guys. See you.

Jason:“我们会让你的赢家继续。”

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>> We'll let your winners ride.

Chamath:“Rainman David。”

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>> Rainman David

Jason:“我们把它开源给粉丝,他们简直疯了。爱你们。女王。”

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>> and we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you. Queen of

Chamath:“你的好朋友都走了。”

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>> your besties are gone.

Jason:“那是我的狗注意到你的车道了。”

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>> That is my dog taking notice your driveways.

Chamath:“哦,天哪,我的胃口会满足的。”

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>> Oh man, my appetiter will meet.

Jason:“我们都应该开个房间,来一场盛大的狂欢,因为他们都毫无用处。就像这种性紧张,他们需要以某种方式释放。”

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>> We should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy cuz they're all just useless. It's like this like sexual tension that they just need to release somehow.

Chamath:“喙。弄湿你的脚。”

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>> beak. Wet your feet.

Jason:“你的脚。”

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>> Your feet.

Chamath:“那会很好。我们需要推出周边产品。我将全力以赴。”

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>> That's going to be good. We need to get merch. I'm going all in.

关键字: america-first identity-politics job-displacement llm media