什么是“循环融资”及其影响？

Okay, Let's talk about this concept of circular funding to start with. Why has it created such a fuss amongst market observers and what is it?

好的，我们先来谈谈这个“循环融资”的概念。它为何引起市场观察人士如此大的关注？它又是什么？

Oh, well, I guess the easiest way to frame it is a company like Open Air doesn't have the balance sheet of matter or a microsoft or Google in terms of the huge air infrastructure buildout that they want to go ahead with. And so far, they relied on Microsoft to consume all the data center capacity they needed for its output and the enterprise business they have. And now they feel the numbers and the demand is getting so big that they are planning ahead. They are looking to three years ahead where they would need probably two or three times more capacity than they are consuming right now. And for that, first, they did a deal with Oracle $300 billion deal that spans almost five years. Then they did this deal with an area actually to build ten gigawatt of datacentre capacity.

嗯，我想最简单的解释方式是，像 OpenAI 这样的公司，并没有 Meta 或微软、谷歌那样庞大的资产负债表，来支持它们想要进行的巨大 AI 基础设施建设。 到目前为止，它们依赖微软来满足其输出和企业业务所需的所有数据中心容量。 现在，它们感觉到业务规模和需求变得非常庞大，于是开始进行规划。 它们着眼于未来三年，届时它们可能需要比现在消耗量大两到三倍的容量。 为此，首先，它们与 Oracle 达成了一项价值 3000 亿美元、为期近五年的交易。 然后，它们与 [此处原文似乎有误，根据上下文推测应为“微软”或“英伟达”，但此处保留原文“an area”] 达成一项协议，建设十吉瓦的数据中心容量。

英伟达与 OpenAI 的巨额投资

Now, the interesting part to answer your question on circular funding is NVIDIA is spending, you know, $10 billion and giving it to open the for them to add up to ten gigawatts of capacity and that investment could go up to 100 billion. So every gigawatt involves almost $40 billion of spend. That's a rough calculation. So you can imagine for ten gigawatts we are talking about $400 billion in spend. Out of that, NVIDIA is going to put $100 billion. So one fourth of that is coming from Nvidia. The rest, Openai still has to raise it through a private vehicle or some other type of instrument, but that's the challenge Openai has to grapple with and figure out the rest of the funding and they feel they can do that in conjunction with I mean, I'm not even talking about the AMD partnership, but that's essentially what they're trying to do, is to build out data centers on their own as opposed to relying on hyperscalers.

现在，回答你关于循环融资的问题，有趣的部分是：英伟达正在花费大约 100 亿美元，并将其提供给 OpenAI，用于后者增加高达十吉瓦的容量，这项投资可能高达 1000 亿美元。 所以，每吉瓦的容量需要近 400 亿美元的支出。 这是一个粗略的计算。 所以你可以想象，对于十吉瓦的容量，我们谈论的是 4000 亿美元的支出。 其中，英伟达将出资 1000 亿美元。 所以，四分之一的资金来自英伟达。 其余部分，OpenAI 仍需通过私人融资工具或其他某种形式的工具来筹集，但这正是 OpenAI 需要应对并解决其余资金问题的挑战，而且他们认为可以通过其他方式实现。我甚至还没有谈到 AMD 的合作，但本质上他们正在做的是，建立自己的数据中心，而不是依赖超大规模云服务提供商。

AI 基础设施建设的资本支出激增

And so we're going to get to the whole idea of an AI bubble here shortly. But do these companies have all the money to back it up to they have the financing to support these efforts. We're throwing around a lot of big numbers here. And it feels like with the tech space, it doesn't matter what number you throw out. You could find some company that's saying that that's what they're going to spend when we think about CapEx. So you're right, the traditional business used to be asset light. You needed CapEx spend of maybe 30 to $35 billion if you're a Google or a meter. And that would suffice for the whole year and it would stay, you know, around 5 to 10%, give or take. But now it's already, you know, two times larger than that $35 billion. And next year it's going to cross hundred billion dollars. It's going to be three times larger or existing companies that run data center assets. And the reason for that is the compute has gotten so expensive. Plus you need more compute for Generator VII. So think of traditional search. It needed compute that equated to maybe .02 cents per query. Now with generative AI, that chat bot query is almost ten times more expensive than your traditional search query. So that's where the compute demand is coming from. And these companies have no choice but to invest in infrastructure because users are spending more time. I mean, Google's token usage has grown 50 X, so people are consuming a lot of these products. And if the pace continues at this level, then you have no choice but to add more capacity. And that's why the numbers are so big here.

所以，我们很快就会谈到 AI 泡沫这个话题。但这些公司是否有足够的资金来支持这些努力？他们是否有融资来支持这些行动？我们在这里谈论的是非常庞大的数字。感觉在科技领域，你抛出任何数字，都能找到一家公司声称他们会这么花钱，当我们谈论资本支出（CapEx）时。 所以你是对的，传统业务曾经是轻资产的。如果你是谷歌或 Meta，你可能需要花费 300 到 350 亿美元的资本支出。这足以应付全年，而且通常保持在 5% 到 10% 左右。但现在，这已经比 350 亿美元大两倍了。明年，它将超过 1000 亿美元。对于那些运营数据中心资产的现有公司来说，这将是现有的三倍。 原因在于计算变得极其昂贵。 另外，你还需要更多的计算能力来支持生成式 AI。 所以想想传统的搜索。它每查询一次需要的计算量大约是 0.02 美分。而现在，随着生成式 AI 的出现，一个聊天机器人查询的成本几乎是传统搜索查询的十倍。 这就是计算需求增长的来源。 这些公司别无选择，只能投资基础设施，因为用户花费的时间越来越长。 我的意思是，谷歌的代币使用量增长了 50 倍，所以人们正在消耗大量这些产品。 如果这种增长速度持续下去，那么你就必须增加更多的容量。 这就是为什么这里的数字如此之大。

市场对 AI 投资的热情与供需关系

Well, you know, you talking about it seems like it really is just an insatiable appetite for investment into the space. Right now. We're talking about not just kind of the chips and and the servers, but also the physical space. But when you compare that with the flow of money and investment into the stock, whether it's from investors on the street or companies looking to get in, and it seems like there are a lot of willing players still in the market, do you think there really is such a mismatch between the flow of money coming out and also the demand for funding to create and further fueled this air infrastructure situation? Yeah, everyone I think now realizes that the this is a very long runway in terms of both the build out of the infrastructure and how it will eventually monetize. I mean, look, there's a lot of upfront investment and that's where, you know, the Hyperscalers CapEx guys, they were willing to invest money with their operating cash flow. They had the balance sheet, the Google, NetApp, Microsoft, they had the balance sheet to put their operating cash flow in the form of. But now the numbers are getting even bigger. And so if Google generates $100 billion in operating cash flow, now they're talking about spending more than that 100 billion. And that's where the private guys come in. Everyone feels it's an attractive asset because you can rent it. You can generate a return over three or four years. And that's where I do think there will be a lot more of these deals. I mean, the whole Neil Cloud space has come about literally because of this demand and, you know, willingness to rent compute from someone else. Right. Lots of activity happening in the air space. Can't stop. Won't stop. A lot of bubble allegations, too. Anything that you can point to that would dispute that? Well, right now, we are still in that phase where the demand far outstrips supply. And to me, the biggest indicator of that is what Nvidia tells us on their earnings call in terms of their margins, their pricing. I mean, right now, their implacable architecture, their hopper chip prices have started to go up because the demand is far outstripping supply. So when you see a trend like that, yes, there will be probably some misallocation of capital that will find out in retrospect that this capital was misallocated in some way. But right now, it's very hard to question the pace of this build out because there's still that big gap between demand and supply. And until that narrows, it's hard to question why capital is going in this domain, because, I mean, it should.

您刚才谈到的，似乎确实是对这个领域有着永不满足的投资热情。 现在，我们谈论的不仅仅是芯片和服务器，还有物理空间。 但是，当我们将其与股票市场的资金流和投资进行比较时，无论是来自普通投资者还是寻求进入市场的公司，似乎仍然有许多愿意参与的玩家。您是否认为资金流出与创建和进一步推动这种 AI 基础设施状况所需的资金需求之间存在如此大的差距？ 是的，我认为现在每个人都意识到，无论是基础设施的建设还是其最终的变现方式，这都是一个非常漫长的赛道。 你看，前期投入巨大，而且这正是超大规模云服务提供商的资本支出。他们愿意用运营现金流进行投资。他们拥有资产负债表，谷歌、甲骨文、微软，他们有资产负债表来投入运营现金流。 但现在数字变得更大了。 所以，如果谷歌产生 1000 亿美元的运营现金流，现在他们却在谈论支出超过 1000 亿美元。 这就是私人资本介入的地方。 每个人都认为这是一个有吸引力的资产，因为你可以出租它。你可以在三到四年内获得回报。 我认为，未来会出现更多这样的交易。 我的意思是，整个 [原文此处可能为“AI 云”] 领域，实际上就是因为这种需求而产生的，以及这种从他人那里租用计算能力的意愿。 是的。 AI 领域有很多活动。 停不下来。 也不会停下来。 也有很多关于泡沫的指控。 有什么可以反驳的吗？ 嗯，就目前而言，我们仍然处于需求远远超过供应的阶段。 对我来说，最大的指标是英伟达在财报电话会议上告诉我们的关于其利润率和定价的信息。 我的意思是，现在，他们不可阻挡的架构，他们的 Hopper 芯片价格已经开始上涨，因为需求远远超过供应。 所以，当你看到这样的趋势时，是的，可能会有一些资本错配，事后会发现这些资本以某种方式被错配了。 但现在，很难质疑这种建设的步伐，因为需求和供应之间仍然存在巨大的差距。 在这一差距缩小之前，很难质疑为什么资本会流向这个领域，因为，我的意思是，它应该流向这里。

投资者对 AI 支出与回报的考量

Well, thank you for mentioning the earnings season, because that's exactly what we want to be asking you about. Obviously, our CapEx was such a big theme last season, especially for NVIDIA. But really, just in general, the magnificent Seven companies and anyone involved in the space, I think that's still the big question for investors is is what companies are spending on AI? Does that justify the returns that they're getting now and in the future? What would you say to those investor kind of weighing that to that balance as we head into the next season's earnings? I mean, look at the year to date performance of Mag seven. The stocks that have outperformed are the ones that have spent their CapEx that have increased their spending on AI, not the ones that have been conservative. Your Apple and Amazon haven't outperformed, right? Nvidia, the best performing and I mean and really is not the one who is putting CapEx dollars but look at you know, Google they I think so that's where I do think the market is still rewarding companies that are spending on AI. And if you have been conservative and just focused on margins, your multiple has shrunk. And that's the sort of mood we are in. So my feeling is you will see this earnings season also reward companies that show higher revenue growth even if they have large businesses. If that aid component is accelerating, you will see multiples expanding and that's where there is scope to be positively surprised. Are valuations too high, though? I mean, you could argue that, you know, in certain pockets for maybe the index as a whole. But when you look at individual companies, I go back to match seven. These are wonderful businesses that are investing in AI, which everyone deems, you know, will have high usage. The question is, how will they monetize? And if they can answer that question in terms of, you know, how it monetizes over time, not in the next 12 to 24 months, but over time, I think investors will be happy. Now, course, part of the jitters around this, whether air is in a bubble and in all that is really this idea of concentration risk. Right. And the fact that more and more gains in S&P 500 in the U.S. equity market in general are being driven by such a small number of companies. Is that something that investors really need to be worry so much about when, as you say, at the moment, demand for these companies, products and services is still far outstripping supply? Yeah. So I mean, again, the picks and shovels trade has carried on. Now we are in that phase where the last frontier models are, you know, clear which ones are those and which ones have the lead. And now it's about, you know, how the other software companies adapt in terms of using these models as a distribution layer and making sure they can thrive in the world where airlines are also part of the tech stack. So we'll start to see that pan out over time. Not every company will be as dominant as they used to be. But then the businesses that end up using them as an intelligence layer and continue to show positive surprises, I think you will see a rerating in their multiple.

感谢您提到财报季，因为这正是我们想要询问您的。显然，上个财报季，尤其是对于英伟达来说，资本支出是一个重大的主题。但实际上，总的来说，对于“七巨头”公司以及任何参与该领域的人来说，我认为对投资者来说，最大的问题仍然是：公司在 AI 上投入了多少？这是否能证明他们现在和未来获得的收益是合理的？当我们在进入下一个财报季时，您会如何告诉那些在权衡这种平衡的投资者？ 我的意思是，看看“七巨头”今年以来的表现。表现优异的股票是那些已经投入了资本支出、增加了 AI 支出的公司，而不是那些保守的公司。你的苹果和亚马逊并没有表现出色，对吧？英伟达是表现最好的，我的意思是，它并不是那个投入资本支出的人，但看看谷歌，我认为市场仍然在奖励那些在 AI 上投入的公司。如果你一直很保守，只关注利润，你的市盈率就会萎缩。这就是我们目前的心态。所以我的感觉是，在这个财报季，你也会看到那些即使业务规模庞大，但能显示出更高收入增长的公司会获得奖励。如果 AI 的组成部分在加速，你就会看到市盈率扩张，这就有可能带来积极的惊喜。 那么估值是否过高？我的意思是，你可以争辩说，在某些细分市场，或者可能对整个指数来说。但当你看看个别公司时，我还是回到“七巨头”。这些都是优秀的企业，它们正在投资 AI，每个人都认为 AI 将会有很高的使用率。问题是，它们将如何变现？如果它们能够回答这个问题，即如何随着时间的推移实现变现，而不是在未来 12 到 24 个月内，而是随着时间的推移，我认为投资者会很高兴。 现在，当然，围绕 AI 是否是泡沫以及所有这些担忧的一部分，实际上是这种“集中风险”的想法。对吧？以及 S&P 500 指数以及美国股市整体而言，越来越多的收益是由少数几家公司驱动的事实。 当你说，目前，这些公司、产品和服务的需求仍然远远超过供应时，这是否是投资者真正需要担心的呢？ 是的。所以，我的意思是，再次强调，“卖水人”的交易仍在继续。现在我们进入了一个阶段，最后的尖端模型，你知道，哪些是它们，哪些占有领先地位，已经很清楚了。现在的问题是，其他软件公司将如何适应，如何使用这些模型作为分发层，并确保它们能在 AI 也成为技术堆栈一部分的世界中蓬勃发展。 所以，随着时间的推移，我们将开始看到这种情况。并非所有公司都会像过去那样占主导地位。但是，那些最终将它们作为智能层来使用并继续显示出积极惊喜的企业，我认为你会看到它们的市盈率得到重新评估。