特朗普的极端言论:从外交辞令到道德危机
特朗普在 True Social 上发布的关于“一个文明将今晚灭绝”以及针对伊朗电力、桥梁设施的攻击威胁,不仅仅是其极具个人色彩的辞令,更引发了跨越政治光谱的道德震荡。支持者或许将其视为一种极端压力测试(Maximalist pressure: 通过极限威胁迫使对手妥协的手段),意在逼迫伊朗重回谈判桌。然而,这种将数千万平民生命作为谈判筹码的行为,即便在右翼阵营内部也引发了如 Tucker Carlson 和 Megan Kelly 等人的强烈谴责。Carlson 直言这是一种“战争罪行”和“道德犯罪”,而这种对伊朗人人权属性(Human beings: 具备基本生存尊严与权利的个体)的漠视,反映了特朗普外交策略中深植的非人道色彩。
Original English Source
At 8:03 a.m. on Easter Sunday, Trump posted this to True Social. Tuesday will be power plant day and bridge day all wrapped up in one in Iran. There'll be nothing like it. Open the straight, you crazy bastards. You'll be living in hell. Just watch. Praise be to Allah. President Donald J. Trump. That is even crazier when you read it aloud. But Trump followed it up with another post on Tuesday that began, "A whole civilization will die tonight. Never to be brought back again." I don't want that to happen, but it probably will. It didn't happen. Trump backed down, agreeing to a twoe ceasefire with Iran. This is not the art of the deal. This is behavior that should trigger a wellness check. Here's Tucker Carlson. It is vile on every level. It begins with a promise to use the US military, our military, to destroy civilian infrastructure in another country, which is to say to commit a war crime, a moral crime against the people of the country. What Carlson correctly centered is something Trump forgot or didn't care about as soon as it was convenient. Iranians are human beings. To annihilate them, to salvage a war you started is a crime against humanity. It is the act of a war criminal. It is the act of a monster.
从良性霸权到掠夺性霸权:全球秩序的结构性崩坏
Fareed Zakaria 认为,特朗普的这些言论标志着美国正式背弃了二战以来所承载的道德权威(Moral weight: 国家在国际事务中所体现的道义力量与诚信)。自1945年以来,美国在很大程度上扮演了良性霸权(Benign Hegemon: 致力于通过构建规则和提供援助来维护全球系统稳定的主导大国)的角色,发明了“对外援助”概念并致力于开放贸易。然而,特朗普正将美国推向一种掠夺性霸权(Predatory Hegemon: 利用绝对实力优势,对盟友和对手进行短期、强制性利益榨取的权力模式)的深渊。他不再关注全球公共产品的提供,而是试图从每一项地缘政治变动中直接“抽成”,例如提出美伊共同控制霍尔木兹海峡并从中收取过路费。这种短期榨取的逻辑,正摧毁美国用了八十年建立起的信用。
Original English Source
I was horrified, but it goes beyond that. It felt like that tweet was the culmination of something that had been going on for a while, which was that the president of the United States was simply abandoning the entire moral weight that the United States had brought to its world role ever since World War II. After 1945, it said we're not going to be another imperial hegeimon. We're actually going to try and build them and we're going to give them foreign aid. We invented the idea of foreign aid. Trump is more like a rapacious 18th century European imperialist. It was all a kind of self-interested short-term extractive game. The foreign policy scholar Steven Walt had an essay recently where he described what America is becoming or attempting to be as a predatory hegeimon. We have benefited enormously from being the at the center of this world. But so we're getting these short-term gains at enormous long-term loss to our position, our status, our influence, our power.
伊朗博弈的虚假胜利与真实的战略透支
尽管特朗普声称通过极限威胁迫使伊朗达成了为期两周的停火协议,但这极可能是一场彻头彻尾的战略失败。在战争开始前,伊朗的核计划已基本处于停滞或受控状态;而在经历了这场冲突后,伊朗虽然在军事上受损,却向世界证明了其拥有破坏全球经济的能力。通过控制霍尔木兹海峡(Strait of Hormuz: 连接波斯湾和阿曼湾的战略水道,全球能源运输的咽喉),伊朗现在不仅能够威胁海湾国家,还成功将其影响力通过加密货币和人民币结算变现。与此同时,美国的外交信用降至冰点,原本可以不战而得的谈判条件,现在却成了美国在战略劣势下的尴尬妥协。
Original English Source
So let's just evaluate it on the merits in the sense of if the genius negotiating strategy what we have ended up with is in a situation where we began the war with a country whose nuclear program had been completely and totally obliterated. What we have ended up with is a war in which Iran has lost its military and its navy. What it has gained is realized and shown the world that it can destroy the global economy that it can block the straight of hormones. It now seems poised to monetize that, presumably giving it $90 billion of revenue every year. It has weakened the dollar because these payments are now being made in crypto or in yuan. It has strengthened Russia. It has almost wrecked the Western Alliance. Why the hell didn't we negotiate on this basis 2 months ago? We could have easily negotiated with no war.
以色列的道德损耗与内塔尼亚胡的政治遗产
访谈中深入讨论了本雅明·内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)的长期执政及其对美以关系的重塑。内塔尼亚胡通过将以色列问题“党派化”,成功在短期内利用了美国的政治分裂获取支持,但这种激进的军事路线(如占据黎巴嫩领土、驱离大量平民)正在导致以色列在全球范围内,特别是年轻一代美国人中的道德声望丧失。这种“短期军事优势换取长期道德孤立”的策略,可能导致以色列失去其作为“民族之光”的道德感召力,从而动摇其立国之本。
Original English Source
Has this war been good for Israel? BB Netanyahu's legacy was to split apart the alliance between the United States and Israel. He began by politicizing it in a poisonous way when Obama was president. Israel is the superpower of the Middle East. Israel is currently occupying 10% of Lebanon. It has displaced 1 million people. Is the price that now a majority of Americans have an unfavorable view of Israel? In Germany, the young are being increasingly alienated by what they see. BB Netanyahu has found a way to push back against a lot of Israel's enemies, but Ben-Gurion said Israel should be a light unto nations. I think for most people in the world today that is not the way they look at Israel and that is a huge moral loss.
自由主义的疲态与“后美国世界”的加速到来
自由主义在应对特朗普式挑战时显得苍白无力,其根源在于自由主义已在过去几百年中通过制度化(Institutionalization: 将核心价值转化为官僚程序和固定组织的演变过程)获得了全面胜利,从而失去了其原有的激进想象力。当自由主义者仅仅在为已经失效的制度辩护,而无法提供激动人心的道德使命时,便难以对抗特朗普那种诉诸“赤裸私利”的叙事。这种权力的空窗期正加速后美国世界(Post-American World: 美国不再是规则制定者和唯一议程设置者的多极化时代)的形成。世界各国,包括加拿大、印度和欧洲,正纷纷通过构建替代性的多边协议来“购买保险”,以应对美国领导力的反复无常和掠夺性倾向。
Original English Source
Liberalism begins with profoundly ambitious moral ideas. Over time, it encodes those ideas and ideals into institutions, laws, rules. And then it becomes the philosophy of the people who staff and lead those institutions. And institutions fail. The problem liberalism has right now is that what we are left offending are institutions that don't really work as opposed to values that really do. The world has watched this display and said, "Oh, America can be just another imperial rapacious power and we need to start protecting ourselves." The one thing that the US had going for it was this agenda setting power and that's gone. The US is viewed as off on its own weird track. A world without American power will be a worse world, but it's not going to magically reconstitute itself around a Chinese hedgeimon. Reputation takes a lifetime to build and it's very easy to destroy.