学者罗伯特·佩恩探讨美国中期选举后的地缘冲突升级陷阱与应对设想

危机前瞻：最危险的八周

我们即将步入我们一生中最危险的八周，因为美国中期选举将决定特朗普总统执政的前途命运。而最危险的时刻就是权力交接期。我们在“1月6日”事件中就已经看到了这一点。因此，在这一过渡期内所发生的事情，也极易与伊朗战争产生联动，因为特朗普总统曾反复承诺，他将在选举之后升级局势。好了，现在我们已经身处选举之后了。那么，让我来向你们揭示接下来究竟会发生什么。不过首先，我研究全球政治暴力已有30年，并且自“9·11”以来为历届白宫提供过咨询。

你认为在这八周里究竟会发生什么？

英文原文

We are about to enter the eight most dangerous weeks in our lives cuz the US midterms [music] will determine the fate of President Trump's administration. And the most dangerous time is the transition of power. And we saw this with January 6. And so what happens in this transition period could also easily dovetail in the Iran war because President Trump has promised over and over again that he will escalate after the elections. Well, now we're after the elections. So, let me show you what's really going to happen. But first, I've studied political violence around the world for 30 years and I've advised every White House since 9/11. What What do you think's going to happen then over these eight weeks?

那么，让我们从头说起。特朗普总统会接受选举结果吗？不仅如此，摆在他桌面上的一项计划，是在为期3天的时间内对伊朗境内的目标实施打击。随着伊朗战争不断升级，我们现在面临的状况是：这可能是一个普京开始意识到自己无法从特朗普那里获得乌克兰领土的关口。因此，他会转向他的下一步计划。我会向你展示那可能会是什么样子。接下来会发生什么？欧洲将面临巨大的反击压力。而当欧洲采取行动时，那就是“第三次世界大战”的样子。特朗普总统将能够开始宣布越来越多的紧急权力。这将导向毁灭性的2027年。我们能做些什么？还有，普通民众呢？你认为我们应该囤积物资吗？第一点，极其重要，那就是——

在这期节目开始之前，我有个小小的请求想拜托大家。两个月前，观看这个频道的观众中有61%的人没有订阅。现在这一比例已经降到了58%。我的目标是50%。所以，如果你曾经喜欢过我们在本频道制作的任何视频，如果你喜欢这个频道，你能帮我一个小小的忙，点击一下订阅按钮吗？这对本频道的帮助超出你的想象，而且频道规模越大，我们就能在嘉宾和制作上投入越多。谢谢大家，请收看本期节目。

英文原文

>> So, let's start with the beginning. Will President Trump accept [music] the election results, but also a plan that's on his desk is a plan to hit targets [music] in Iran over a 3-day period. And as the Iran war is escalating, now we have the issue of this is a likely possible time when Putin is going to start to realize he [music] can't get Ukrainian territory from Trump. So, he moves to his next plan. And I'll show you what that might look like. What happens next? There's going to be enormous pressure on Europe to retaliate. And when Europe does that, that's what World War II looks like. President Trump will be able to start declaring [music] more and more emergency powers. And this will lead into a devastating 2027. What can we do? And what [music] about the general public? Do you think we should be stockpiling? Number one, incredibly important, which is before this episode starts, I have a small favor to ask you. Two months ago, 61% of the people that watched this channel weren't subscribed. We're now down to 58%. My goal is 50%. So, if you've ever liked any of the videos we've made on this channel, if you like this channel, can you do me a small quick favor and hit the subscribe button? It helps this channel more than you know, and the bigger the channel gets, the more we can invest in the guests and the production. Thank you and enjoy this episode. [music]

[singing]

英文原文

>> [singing]

升级陷阱与权力过渡

罗伯特·佩恩，每次我和你交谈，我都觉得自己总是以同样的问题开场，但这确实是当前最萦绕在我脑海里的问题：眼下这个世界到底是怎么了？

究竟是怎么了——我们正越来越深地陷入升级陷阱，我们正在沿着升级的阶梯步步攀升，风险在不断扩大，我们即将进入自这场战争爆发以来最危险的八周，而它们很可能成为我们一生中最危险的八周。我们将看到三个本质上极其危险的问题交织在一起。我们即将目睹美国中期选举，目前投票已经结束。但我们现在正处于计票、确认投票结果的过程，并且在两个月内——这需要两个月的时间——确立胜选者的席位。这就是权力的交接。真正的政治暴力危险区，也就是我所谓的暴力民粹主义，现在正拉开序幕。它在投票停止、计票开始的那一刻就已经启动了，因为这就是权力的交接。

英文原文

>> Robert Payne, every time I speak to you, I feel like I start with the same question, but it is the question that is front of mind for me, which is what the hell is going on in the world at the moment? What's going on is we are getting deeper and deeper into an escalation trap and we are moving up rungs in escalation where risk is growing and we are about to enter the eight most dangerous weeks since this war began and they may become the eight most dangerous weeks in our lives. We are going to see the coming together of three fundamentally dangerous issues. We're about to see the US midterms where the voting has now stopped. But we are now in the process of counting the vote, certifying the vote and in two months and it will take two months seeding the victors. That's the transfer of power. Where the real danger zone of political violence, what I call violent populism is starting now. It began the moment the voting stopped and the counting began because that's the transfer of power.

好的，所以全世界大多数受众，包括我自己，可能都不清楚中期选举是什么——

英文原文

>> Okay, so most of my audiences around the world probably won't know, including myself, what a midterm is

在总统制体制下。在美国，我们的美国总统任期为四年。而对于国会，我们每两年举行一次选举。

英文原文

>> in the presidential system. In the United States, we have four-year terms for our US presidents. Then for our Congress, we hold an election every two years.

我们的国会有两个院。有时它与总统选举重合，在这种情况下，我们直接称其为大选。但当总统不面临连任竞选时，我们称之为中期选举，意思是总统任期的期中。

英文原文

>> And we have two houses in our Congress. Sometimes it uh dovetales with the election of the president, in which case we just call it the general election. But when the president is not up for reelection, we call it a midterm, meaning midterm of the president's term.

那么，让我向你解释一下，你来告诉我我理解得对不对。有一个众议院，然后还有一个参议院。

英文原文

>> So, let me explain this to you, and you tell me if I've got this. There is this House of Representatives, and then there's the Senate.

没错。

英文原文

>> That's right.

两者共同通过投票使法律生效。

英文原文

>> And both of them work to vote laws into power.

没错。

英文原文

>> That's right.

而我们此时此刻站在这里，共和党，也就是特朗普所在的党派，在两院都拥有多数席位。所以，对他们来说通过新法律是相当容易的。你的意思是，在即将到来的这些中期选举中，特朗普有可能失去他在参议院和众议院的权力，这意味着他将无法轻而易举地通过他的法律。

这不仅仅关乎通过法律，斯蒂芬。这关乎制衡体制。宪法设立的方式是让国会、总统，以及并非民选机构的最高法院相互制衡。因此，在美国，本应起到温和政策、使我们不走向极端作用的，是不同党派分别控制国会和总统职位。当同一个党派同时控制国会两院和总统职位时，顾名思义，对总统的制衡就微乎其微了。总统基本上可以为所欲为，尤其是在国际事务上，但在国内事务上同样影响极大。这就是为什么如果共和党不再控制众议院和参议院，总统的权力将受到严厉的制约。

那么，为什么在你看来这是历史上最危险的八周呢？

英文原文

>> And as we stand here right now, the Republicans, Trump's party, has a majority in both. So, it's quite easy for them to pass new laws. What you're saying is in these midterms that are coming up, there's a prospect that Trump might lose his power in the Senate and in the House, which would mean he wouldn't be able to get his laws passed very easily. It's not just about passing laws, Stephen. It's about a system of check and balance. The way the constitution was set up is that the congress and the president and then also the supreme court which does which is not an elected body they check each other. So what's supposed to moderate the policies in the United States where we don't go to the extremes is when different parties control the congress and the president. When you have the same party controlling both houses of Congress and the president, by definition, there's very little check and balance on the president. The president can pretty much do what the president wants, especially in international affairs, but also very heavily in domestic. That's why the president's power is going to be severely checked if Republicans no longer control the House and the Senate. So why is this the eight most dangerous weeks in your history?

民意撕裂与弹劾危机

这是最危险的八周，因为政治暴力——特别是在暴力民粹主义时代，当两党阵营都有数以千万计的美国人支持政治暴力时。最危险的时刻是权力的过渡。我们在6年前的“1月6日”就见识到了这一点。必须记住的是，在2020年11月，拜登总统当选了。然而，这并没有阻止特朗普总统采取措施去阻止那次权力的交接。我们在1月6日看到了事态激化爆发，那是经过了长达两个月的发酵过程。那正是在投票停止、计票开始，随后选票认证开始，进而走向权力交接之时。那是自南北战争以来我们在美国国内政治中所见过的最危险的时刻。我们正再次走向极其相似的境地，而且现在情况更糟。

英文原文

>> It's the eight most dangerous weeks because political violence uh especially in the era of violent populism when tens of millions of Americans support political violence on both sides of the aisle. The most dangerous time is the transition of power. And we saw this 6 years ago with January 6. It's important to remember that in November 2020, President Biden was elected. However, that did not prevent President Trump from taking steps to prevent that transfer of power. We saw it come to a head on January 6th, and that occurred over a two-month process. It was when the voting stopped and the counting began and then the certification of the votes began and then the transfer of power. That was the most dangerous moment that we have seen in American domestic politics since the civil war. We are heading to a very similar situation again and it's worse now.

你怎么知道？

30年来，我一直在研究世界各地的政治暴力。但在过去5年里，斯蒂芬，我全神贯注于了解美国所发生的一切。我们正在真切地目睹这一事实背景下的权力交接。

英文原文

>> How do you know? For 30 years, I've studied political violence around the world. But for the last 5 years, Stephen, I have devoted myself to understanding what's happened in the United States. We are seeing a transition of power in the context of literally this fact.

那个事实是怎么说的？

那个事实就是，截至一个月前的今天，超过4000万美国人支持动用美军来镇压反对特朗普议程的民主党抗议者。你可以把这看作是有4000万美国人支持为了特朗普而使用政治暴力；并且有6000万美国人，超过6000万人，支持使用武力来阻止特朗普担任总统。我做这些全国代表性调查已经有5年了。这些数字是2024年9月（两年前）的两倍。你会记得，两年前我们经历过针对特朗普总统的多次暗杀未遂。你还记得一年前，我们目睹了查理·柯克的遇刺。因此，这些数字比那时更糟糕。而我们正步入我们有生之年真正最动荡的选举，因为这确实将决定特朗普总统政府最后两年的命运。如果事实证明在这两个月结束时，民主党控制了其中一院，尤其是如果他们同时控制了众议院和参议院，这将意味着特朗普总统任期在政治上的实质瓦解。民主党控制了国会两院，他们不仅拥有传唤权，能够以入狱和监禁的惩罚相威胁，强迫特朗普政府成员出庭作证；他们还将拥有弹劾权。而且这不仅仅是弹劾特朗普总统，这是弹劾他的内阁成员。想想赫格塞斯部长，想想司法部长，想想国土安全部部长。如果实际上他们还控制了参议院，如今只需再多几张共和党的选票——而且已经有许多心怀不满的共和党人，以及近几个月来许多疏远了特朗普总统的共和党人——他们就真的有可能将他们免职。这将引发急剧恶化的恶性循环。斯蒂芬，那在政治上是深不见底的。这绝不是说，哦，只要你除掉了一位内阁部长，所有人就都平静下来了。我们所见证的，是一个真正的分水岭时期，对于……政治

英文原文

>> What does that fact say? That fact is that today, as of a month ago, over 40 million Americans support the use of the US military to suppress Democratic protesters against the Trump agenda. Think of this as 40 million Americans who support political violence for Trump and 60 million Americans, over 60 million, support the use of force to prevent Trump from being president. I've been doing these national representative surveys for 5 years. These numbers are double what they were in September 2024, two years ago. And two years ago, you'll recall, we had multiple assassination attempts against President Trump. You remember a year ago, we had the assassination of Charlie Kirk. So these numbers are worse than that. And we are coming into the most volatile election in our lifetimes really because this really will determine the fate of President Trump's administration for the final two years. If it turns out that at the end of these two months that the Democrats control one or especially if they control both the House and the Senate, this is going to mean the virtual political destruction of the Trump presidency. the Democrats in control of both houses of Congress. They will not only have the power of subpoenas to be able to compel on penalty of going to jail and prison uh testimony from members of the Trump administration. They will have the power of impeachment. And it's not just impeaching President Trump. It's impeaching the members of his cabinet. Think Secretary Hegsth. think the attorney general, think uh the Department of Homeland Security Secretary. And if in fact they also control the Senate, now with just a few more Republican votes, and there are many disgruntled Republicans already and many Republicans that have moved away from President Trump in recent months, they have the possibility of literally removing them from office. That would create a spiral down. There's no political bottom there, Stephen. This is not like, oh, it's just once you get rid of one cabinet secretary, everybody calms down. What we are witnessing is a true watershed period for the uh political

中期选举与两线危机

……特朗普总统的权力。这也意味着“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）议程的推进力，即在这个国家是否会出现大规模驱逐出境。这会如何受到中期选举的影响？

英文原文

power of President Trump. And that means also the power of the MAGA agenda whether or not there will be mass deportations in the country. How would that be impacted by the midterms

如果从一月份开始，特朗普政府内部出现持续数月且混乱不堪的动荡，届时内阁各部门的首长——包括国土安全部部长——都随时可能被撤换。那么各部门还能保持连贯运作的想法，就变得极其、极其困难。斯蒂芬……

英文原文

>> if starting in January there are months and months of turmoil in the Trump administration where literally the heads of the cabinet offices including the Department of Homeland Security are on the block to be removed. the idea that you're going to have consistent um operations within the departments very very very difficult. Stephen,

那么你认为接下来的这八周会发生什么？

英文原文

>> what do you think is going to happen then over these eight weeks?

这始于中期选举。始于暴力民粹主义的问题。始于特朗普总统任期后果的问题。但这并不会止步于此，因为你看，这并不是孤立发生的。它正发生在对伊朗战争期间。因此，在中期选举这一过渡期内发生的事情，也很容易与伊朗战争的进一步升级完全交织在一起。事实上，特朗普总统已经一而再、再而三地承诺，他将在……呃……选举之后升级局势。好吧，现在我们正处在——现在我们已经处在选举之后了。与此同时，仿佛这还不够危险似的，我们还有第三个问题，那就是普京总统和俄罗斯正威胁对乌克兰的民用基础设施进行强力升级打击，以极其剧烈的方式针对基辅、哈尔科夫和敖德萨的电力设施。我原以为他们正在达成一项协议。

英文原文

>> It starts with the midterms. It starts with the issue of violent populism. It starts with the issue of the consequences of President Trump's presidency. But it doesn't stop there because you see this is not happening in isolation. It's happening during the Iran war. And so what happens in this midterm transition period could also easily dovetail with more escalation in the Iran war. And in fact, President Trump has promised over and over and over again that he will escalate after the uh elections. Well, now we're p now we're after the elections. And at the same time, as if that was not dangerous enough, we have a third issue, which is that President Putin and Russia is threatening to escalate strongly against civilian infrastructure in Ukraine to target electric power in Kev, in Carke, and in Odessa in a dramatic way. I thought they were doing a deal.

普京总统没有采取任何行动表明这已经被排除在外，而且有……呃……各种迹象，事实上欧洲各国政府越来越明显的迹象表明，他们对乌克兰战争接下来的走向极度担忧，正如现在的说法，乌克兰将迎来一个“黑暗冬天”。

英文原文

>> President Putin has done nothing to say that this is off the table and there's uh every sign and in fact growing signs by European governments that they are extremely worried about what's coming in the Ukraine war that there will be as the phrasing is now called a dark winter in Ukraine.

所以这是关键的八周。

英文原文

>> So these are eight weeks.

是的。请帮我一周一周地梳理一下。我们从开头说起，也就是选举结果。现在的问题是，特朗普总统会接受选举结果吗？或者，如果最终结果对民主党不利，那些积聚了巨大希望与胜利预期的民主党人，他们会接受未能掌控国会吗？这确实是第一步。而这紧随另一步之后：特朗普总统此前承诺，美国和以色列将在中期选举后立即对伊朗发动打击，沉重的打击。

英文原文

>> Yes. talk me through them week by week. Let's start with the beginning which is the election results. And now the question is, will President Trump accept the election results? Or if they ultimately go against the Democrats, will the Democrats who are built up this giant set of hopes, expectations of victory, would they accept not taking control of Congress? This is really step one. And this is coming right on the heels of another step. President Trump has promised that the United States and Israel will conduct strikes against Iran, heavy strikes right after the midterms.

他是什么时候说的？我一直在找他相关的原话，他关于此事的表态似乎相当隐晦……

英文原文

>> When did he say that? I was looking for his quotes on this and he he seems to be pretty cryptic in saying that

嗯，特朗普将其形容为决断时刻，称自己面临着达成协议或采取行动将他们彻底消灭之间的选择。

英文原文

>> um Trump described it as decision time, stating he faces a choice between reaching a deal or taking action to finish them off.

没错。

英文原文

>> Yes.

当被记者直接问及打击行动是否会恢复时，他表示一切皆有可能，并拒绝排除任何选项。在他……嗯……把决定实施这些打击的明确可能性摆上台面的同时，他正与本届政府一起采取实质性步骤，切实为打击做准备。第一步——这是成本高昂的一步——就是将使馆人员、使馆家属撤出该地区。沙特阿拉伯已经发生了这种情况。在多个前沿海湾国家也已经发生了这种情况。发生的第二件大事是，他已要求军方提供一套详细的袭击计划。这些详细的计划，我们已经看到了泄露的内容。嗯，他不仅让人制定了计划，而且还向中央司令部下达了命令，要求在他发出启动代码后的最多96小时内执行该计划。

英文原文

>> And asked directly by reporters whether strikes would resume, he remarked that anything is possible and declined to take options off the table. as he is um putting on the table the distinct possibility of him deciding to do these strikes, he's taking serious steps with his administration to literally prepare for the strikes. Step number one, that's that's a costly step is to remove embassy personnel, the families of the embassy from the region. This has happened in Saudi Arabia. This has happened in multiple of the frontline Gulf states. The second big thing that's happened is he has asked the military for a detailed set of attack plans. These detailed plans, we have the leaks of them. Um he has not just had the plans drawn up but he's given the orders for sentcom that within maximum 96 hours of his go code they are to execute the plan.

升级陷阱与战略博弈

你手上有……我这里有你写的《轰炸取胜：战争中的空中力量与胁迫》这本书，在美军付诸行动之前，你实际上花了很长时间去建模模拟如果美国决定轰炸伊朗会发生什么。

英文原文

>> So you I've got your book here bombing to win air power and coercion in war and you actually spent a long time modeling what would happen if the US decided to bomb Iran before they did.

没错。20年。

英文原文

>> That's right. 20 years

而你在我们之前的对话中跟我讲的内容，发展的方式确实非常耐人寻味，而且非常准确。呃，其实当我们第一次见面、你第一次向我提出“升级陷阱”以及美国可能会被困住这个概念时，我当时其实并不太理解那种想法——比如美军规模如此庞大，他们当然可以直接开拔进去然后取胜。呃，但你是对的。所以我现在问你，现在战争已经打了，你知道，大概五六个月了。这将会……这要如何收场？

英文原文

>> and what you said to me in these previous conversations we've had has played out in a really, you know, very interesting but very accurate way. Um, actually when we first met and you first told me about this idea of an escalation trap and that the US might be stuck. I didn't really understand that idea like the US military is so big. Of course, they would just go in there and they would win. Um, but you were right. And so I ask you now we're now, you know, I don't know, five, six months into the war. What is what is going how does this end?

斯蒂芬，所谓的升级陷阱，就是当像美以这样的强国攻击一个较弱的国家时，他们获得了战术上的成功。炸弹击中了目标，炸弹炸死了领导人，但较弱的国家反而获得了更大的力量。在这个案例中，这种情况几乎是立刻发生的，因为伊朗牢牢控制了霍尔木兹海峡，并随之牢牢控制了全球20%的石油。

英文原文

>> An escalation trap, Stephen, is when a strong country like the United States and Israel attacks a weaker country and they have tactical success. The bombs hit targets, the bombs kill leaders, but the weaker country gains power. And in this case that happened almost immediately as Iran gained heavy control of the straight of form and with it heavy control of 20% of the world's oil.

接下来会发生什么？

英文原文

>> What happens next?

接下来发生的是发动这场攻击的那一方遭受羞辱。呃，斯蒂芬，现在或许是一个好时机，让我来解释一下许多人眼中的战略到底是什么。许多人认为所谓的战略，斯蒂芬，就是一盘国际象棋。但让我们把这个过程推演一下，向你展示升级陷阱在国际象棋中是什么样子。比如，这是白方，白方走出了开局第一步。

英文原文

>> What happens next is humiliation for this the side that started that attack. Uh, this might be a good time, Stephen, to let me explain what a lot of people think is strategy. And a lot of people think that what strategy is, Stephen, is a chess game. But let's play that out and show you what the escalation trap looks like in a chess game. So, this is white and white plays an opening move.

在这个比喻中那是美国吗？

英文原文

>> Is that America in this analogy?

这代表美国。这代表特朗普总统。白方走出了开局第一步，红方随后也走了一步。白方怎么做呢？吃掉一个兵。现在看起来白方领先了。此时红方再走一步。假设红方跳出了马。当然，是在威胁那个兵。现在白方又走了一步，把象放在这里，以为是在威胁王后。但我们在国际象棋中都知道，王后——红方的王后——现在可以直接吃掉这个象。局面就此打开。虽然最初有所斩获，但很快发生的是，红方现在比以前更有力量了。在国际象棋进行到这一步时，斯蒂芬，通常发生的是白方向红方提出和棋。特朗普和以色列挑起了这场事端。伊朗占了上风，所以连续数月以来所有人都在说，特朗普总统，接受协议吧。好吧，如果我们要进行的是一盘国际象棋，这完全说得通。然而国际政治，尤其是在一个强国此前处于领先地位时，并不是一盘国际象棋。让我解释一下我的意思。对国际政治来说，一个更好的比喻是轮盘赌。

英文原文

>> This is America. This is President Trump. White plays an opening move and red then makes a move. And what does white do? Takes a pawn. Now it looks like white is ahead. Now red makes another move. And let's just say red brings out a knight. Of course threatening the pawn. And now white makes another move putting the bishop here thinking threatening the queen. But as we know in chess, the queen, the red queen can now just simply take the bishop. The opening has opened. There was an initial gain, but what happened very quickly is red is now more powerful than it was before. At this point in a chess game, Stephen, what happens is white offers red a draw. Trump and Israel started this. Iran got ahead and so everybody's been saying for months and months and months, President Trump, just take a deal. Well, that would make perfect sense if what we were doing is we were playing a chess game. International politics, especially when a strong power is ahead, is not a chess game. Let me explain what I mean by that. A better analogy for international politics is roulette.

你看轮盘赌中发生的事情，任何去过赌场的人都会明白这点。你可以过去看看，发现天哪，如果我押单一数字，获胜的概率并不是很好。但如果我决定就押……比如说红色，概率就不同了，我直接下注。然后发生的是，嗯，虽然不完全是50/50，庄家仍然占有优势，但尽管如此，很多轮盘赌玩家都会想：“好吧，我就从这里开始押。”那么，斯蒂芬，当他们输了的时候会发生什么？现在，你是庄家。你刚刚在那里赢了。这时发生的是，许多赌徒会突然陷得更深。“我要加倍下注，或者在这种情况下，我下的注甚至不止翻倍，我要在红色上下更大的赌注，因为既然我刚才在红色上输了，接下来肯定还会出红。”但轮盘一转，猜猜发生了什么？结果又出了黑。现在庄家拿走了更多的筹码。现在我落后得更多了。而且你知道我在这里还做了什么吗？很多赌徒都会这样做。他们去找庄家借钱，说：“你知道吗？借我一些筹码，因为我马上就能赢回来。”那他们会怎么做呢？他们会押上一大堆更大的筹码。他们会把所有这些筹码全押在红36上，因为你看，现在的赔率更冒险了。但如果他们赢了——而且他们再次押在红上——他们指望着自己的数字终于转到了，如果真的转到了，他们不仅能把输掉的钱赢回来，还能赚到更多的钱。在每一个台阶上，特朗普总统都……呃……进行了一次下注。他押注如果自己攻击……呃……最高领袖、除掉最高领袖，这将会削弱伊朗。但没有奏效。他输掉了筹码。于是他押注进行为期六周的空中战役，当时他心想：好吧，我要加大力度，我不仅要轰炸两到三天，我要轰炸整整6周。他又在红色上输了。

英文原文

>> You see what happens in a game of roulette, and anybody who's been to the casino will will know this. You can go and you see that, oh my goodness gracious, the odds of me winning here if I bet on a number, they're not very good. But the odds, if I just decide I'm going to bet on say red, I'm just going to put a bet down. And what happens is, um, it's not quite 50/50. the house still has an advantage, but nonetheless, a lot of roulette players think, "Well, I'm going to start out there." Well, what happens, Stephen, when they lose. Now, you're the house. You've just won there. Now, what happens is a lot of gamblers will suddenly dig in deeper. I'm going to double down, or in this case, I'm even more than doubling down, and I'm going to bet even more on red because since I lost on red before, surely it'll come up red again. But now the h the wheel spins and guess what happens? It comes up black again. Now the house has taken even more chips. Now I'm way behind. And you know what I also did here? And a lot of gamblers do that. They made a deal with a bookie and they said, "You know what? Let me borrow some of them chips here cuz I'm going to get it back." And what are they going to do? They're going to bet an even bigger pile of chips. They're going to bet all those chips on red 36 because see now the odds are riskier. But if they win, and again, they're betting on red. They're hoping they're finally their numbers finally come and do, they're going to make back the money they lost and even more money. At each rung, President Trump has uh has made a bet. He's bet that if he attacks uh the Supreme Leader, kills the Supreme Leader, this will weaken Iran. It didn't work. He lost the chips. So he bet on a six week air campaign and then he thought okay well I'm going to increase I'm going to go not just for two or three days of bombing I'm going to go for 6 weeks of bombing he lost on red again.

他是怎么输掉那场的？

英文原文

>> How did he lose that?

因为伊朗没有让步，并且保持了对霍尔木兹海峡的控制。这正是破坏局势并推高油价的原因。所以随着时间的推移，这切实地变成了……

英文原文

>> Because Iran did not concede and kept control of the straight of form moves. That is what is wrecking and putting the gas prices up high. So as time has gone on it's literally the

他在这里押上的筹码是美国的汽油价格。

英文原文

chips that he is risking here are American gas prices.

还有美国人的生命——

英文原文

And so in American lives

美国人的生命，以及美国的利率，所有这些都相当于我们正在输掉的筹码。但现在他又把赌注押在封锁上了。你猜怎么着？整整六个月过去了，斯蒂芬（Stephen）。他又输了，因为6个月之后发生了什么？伊朗没有屈服，没有崩溃。汽油价格正在上涨。这就是为什么他在中期选举中承受着如此巨大的压力。但情况还不止于此。所以现在，斯蒂芬，他又输了。拿着这些。现在你是庄家了。你拿到了所有那些筹码。现在他远远落后了。

英文原文

>> in American lives and American interest rates, all of that is the equivalent of the chips that we are losing. But now he's bet again on the blockade. And guess what? It's been six solid months, Stephen. And he's lost again because what's happened after 6 months? Iran has not caved. It's not collapsed. Those gas prices are going up. This is why he's in so much pressure in the midterm. But it gets worse than that. So now Stephen, he's lost again. Take these. Now you're the house. You've got all those chips. Now he's way behind.

而且他面临一个截止期限，因为在赌徒的截止期限里，我刚才拿来玩的所有这些筹码，都是借来的。是我从庄家那里借来的。

英文原文

And he's got a deadline because in the gamblers's deadline, all these chips that I've just been playing with, I've borrowed them. I borrowed them from the bookies.

你的意思是说他是从某个地方借来的筹码？他借了……呃，筹码，而在这种情况下，筹码就是他的“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）政党的政治支持以及对该党的控制权，以便把一切都赢回来，因为到了1月3日就会有一个新国会。这相当于庄家想要收回你手中的所有那些筹码。所以你的意思是，由于他在伊朗发动了战争，他孤注一掷做出了这最后一搏——

英文原文

>> Are you saying that he's borrowed the chips from somewhere? He's borrowing um uh the chips and in this case the chips are the political support of his party MAGA and the control of the party in order to win back everything because come January 3rd there's going to be a new Congress. That's the equivalent of the bookies wanting all those chips back in your hand. So you're saying with with this last bet that he's making because he started the war in Iran,

没错。

英文原文

>> that's right.

对共和党人和特朗普的支持度下降了。

英文原文

>> Sentiment towards the Republicans and Trump has gone down.

大幅下降。输光了你手中的所有那些筹码。

英文原文

>> Hugely down. Lost all those chips in your hand.

现在共和党方面的参议员和国会议员有可能把席位输给民主党人。

英文原文

>> And now senators and Congress people are going to potentially lose their jobs on the Republican side to Democrats.

没错。他们会丢掉工作。而随着他们丢掉工作，呃，他们将来就不会想支持他了。他们正在抽身。他们会越来越远离他。

英文原文

>> That's right. They're going to lose their jobs. And as they lose their jobs, um they're not going to want to support him in the future. They're pulling. They will pull away from him more and more and more.

他为什么不直接……那他还有两年的时间。难道不可想象他干脆决定放松两年吗？好吧，我没法让法律通过，我也没法办成事情。但是，你知道，我可以就……我就在白宫歇着。

英文原文

>> Why doesn't he just He's got two years then. Is it not conceivable that he just decides to relax for 2 years? Okay. I can't get laws passed and I can't get things done. But, you know, I could just I'll chill at the White House.

是的。斯蒂芬，这种想法存在两个大问题。呃，第一个问题是，呃，总统不会就这样放弃他们的政党、他们的议程和他们的政治遗产。我们不仅在特朗普总统和MAGA身上看到了这一点，而且在越南战争时期的林登·约翰逊（Lyndon Johnson）身上也看到了这一点。林登·约翰逊经历了一场非常相似的轮盘赌博弈，随着升级阶梯的每一层阶梯让他失去越来越多的支持，他不断加大赌注。随着美国人民开始反对这场战争，他继续沿着阶梯向上走，

英文原文

>> Yes. So, there's two big problems with that idea, Stephen. Um problem number one is um presidents don't just abandon their party, their agenda, and their legacy. We see this not just with President Trump and MAGA, but we saw this with Lynden Johnson in the Vietnam War. Lyndon Johnson went through a very similar game of roulette where he kept doubling down as each rung of the escalation ladder cost him more and more support. As the American people were turning against the war, he kept going up the ladder,

想要捞回本钱。他是在试图翻本，尽管每一次冒险风险都更大，每一次下注风险都更大，但他认为这是摆脱自己所处末日死循环的唯一途径。而且是有截止期限的。相当于庄家要求两周内还钱的，就是这场选举。而且这不仅仅是选举日当天，选举意味着权力的交接，届时整个政治遗产都会崩溃瓦解。而失败总统的政治遗产是最糟糕的。所以这意味着特朗普总统——当你说他难道不该直接去圣安德鲁斯（St. Andrews）打高尔夫球吗？——他会变成吉米·卡特（Jimmy Carter）和林登·约翰逊的合体，成为我们在有生之年见过的最差劲的总统。这对任何一位总统来说，都是一个巨大且根本无法承受的问题。

英文原文

>> chasing his losses. He's chasing his losses, hoping even though each risk is riskier, each bet is riskier, he sees it as the only way to dig out of this doom loop that he that he is in. And there are deadlines. The equivalent of the bookie wanting their money back in two weeks is the election. And it's not just the day of the election, it's the elections mean transfer of power where the whole legacy comes unglued. And the legacy of the losing president is the worst of all. And so this would mean President Trump, when you say, shouldn't he just go to St. Andrews to play golf? He becomes Jimmy Carter and Lynden Johnson combined, the worst president that we've ever had in in anything like any of our lifetimes. This is a huge problem for any president to just simply absorb.

加密货币与预测市场

这是第一点。第二点是加密货币。特朗普总统通过各种投资为他自己和他的家族赚取了巨额……呃，资金，其中很大一部分都在加密货币领域，而加密货币是终极的信心投资。所以加密货币的情况是，这里的最后一块金币就是，当特朗普总统的权力……［叹气］消失时，这可能会化为乌有。所以加密货币以及他在加密货币中的资金所面临的问题是，这高度依赖于特朗普总统的权力。而一旦特朗普总统的权力化为乌有，很大一部分加密货币——虽然不是全部，但很大一部分——也会烟消云散。这不仅对他个人是如此，他已经80岁了，对他的家族、他的朋友们也是如此，那些借此赚得巨额财富的人。所以当特朗普总统审视这一点时，这不仅仅是自尊心受挫……呃，蒙羞。这是历史上巨大的损失，这对他家族而言也是巨大的个人财务损失。他的家族在美国的博彩法律和预测市场上也介入很深。我想他的儿子实际上在两家大型预测市场公司的董事会任职，由于他们类似于压制了法律和监管，预测市场才得以存在。所以我从那个角度也能理解，他们确实有着可能面临风险的财务利益。

英文原文

>> So that was the first point. The second point is the crypto. So, President Trump has made enormous uh money for himself and his family on various investments and a lot of it is in crypto and crypto is ultimate confidence investment. So that what you have with crypto, the final gold piece here is this can go up poof [sighs] when President Trump's power goes up. So the problem with crypto and his money in crypto is that this is heavily dependent on President Trump's power. And when President Trump's power goes poof, a lot of crypto, not all of it, but a lot of it will go poof. And that will be true not just for him personally, he's 80 years old, but for his family, for his friends, those people that have made uh enormous fortunes on this. So when when President Trump looks at this, this isn't just ego um humiliation. This is massive loss in history and this is also massive personal financial loss for his family. his family are quite involved in the gambling laws and prediction markets in the United States as well. I think his son is actually on the board of two of the big prediction market companies and as they sort of like held back the laws and regulations so that prediction markets can exist. So I I understand it from that perspective as well that they do have financial interests that could be at risk.

而这里的赌徒会怎么做呢？他们会继续赌下去，直到怎样？直到倾家荡产。

英文原文

>> And what happens with the gambler here? They keep going until what? They lose it all.

那么会发生什么？

英文原文

>> So what happens?

所以他们把一切都输光了——

英文原文

>> So they lose it all

在伊朗。现在我们既然理解了特朗普总统所陷入的升级陷阱，那就让我们回到推演板上来。我们能看到的是，他之所以想要升级并再次加倍下注，是有现实原因的，因为他正在寻找一种方法，来扭转认为特朗普总统无法赢得这场战争的悲观论调。这在当下至关重要，因为如果他找不到办法保住作为MAGA支持的最后一批筹码——这种支持取决于他是一个赢家——他接下来就会输掉这些筹码。所以这是巨大的压力，我称之为失败者为了避免屈辱而不断加倍下注的压力。这就是为什么随着我们向前推进，这一步是一个严重的……是一个严重的风险。他目前还没有下达真正打击伊朗的发起代码。我们将把剩下的推演下去，因为一旦我们看清这一切可能走向何方，就必须明白，自9·11事件以来我曾为历届白宫提供咨询，我在白宫亲眼看到，即使对某些政策做出了沉重的承诺，但在最终行动命令下达之前，改弦更张依然是可能的。

英文原文

>> in Iran. So let's go back to the board now that we understand the escalation trap that President Trump is in. What we can see is there's reality to why he wants to escalate and double down again because he is looking for a way to turn around this pessimistic view of President Trump as he can't win the war. This is now critical because if he doesn't find a way to hold on to the final set of chips of MAGA support which depends on him being the winner, he's going to lose those chips going forward. So this is the big pressure, the pressure I call the pressure of humiliation for the loser to keep doubling down. And this is why this step is a serious is a serious risk as we go forward. He hasn't given the go code yet to actually strike Iran. and we're going to play out the rest of this because once we see where this could all head, it's important to understand that I've advised every White House since 9/11 and I've seen that in the White Houses, even though there are heavy commitments to policies, until the final go order is given, it is possible to reverse course.

“三天计划”与历史重演

我很肯定他现在已经认识到，仅仅投下更多的炸弹是行不通的。这是媒体中许多人正在犯的错误，因为他们的战略水平已经从白带变成了绿带，但还没有达到褐带和黑带。所以，关于三天计划泄漏出来的消息是一致的。三天计划就是特朗普总统在这里描述的内容。摆在他办公桌上的计划是一个在3天内打击伊朗境内目标的计划。我相信，媒体一看到“3天”里的“三”字，就会觉得这不可能是什么大事，这肯定是一件微不足道的小事。但从流出的目标群来看，我们谈论的是全方位的全新层级领导层打击、经济目标打击——打击炼油厂、经济电力设施和桥梁。在我看来，这非常像当年的“即时雷电”（Instant Thunder）。那个三天……那原本应该只是一个为期三天的计划，在1991年开启了对伊拉克的战争，当时针对的是84个领导层和基础设施目标，旨在瘫痪萨达姆·侯赛因（Saddam Hussein）的政权。这正是自1991年战争以来许多空军战略家核心所系的空中战役。当我在辩论空中战略时，我字面意义上就是在同最初提出该计划并且至今仍在推动该计划的人辩论。上面写着：“三天计划是五角大楼的一项军事应急方案，如果选举后谈判破裂——大概是中期选举——将对伊朗展开迅速、高强度的空中战役。该方案旨在72小时内打击导弹阵地、无人机发射枢纽、伊斯兰革命卫队指挥中心和能源基础设施，以迫使其投降，而无需引发长期的地面战争。”特朗普暂缓了重大打击行动，直到11月3日中期选举结束，但他明确将选举后的窗口期定为最后抉择时刻：要么同他达成外交协议，要么发起这些打击来彻底了结此事。

英文原文

>> I'm pretty sure he's learned that now that just dropping more bombs doesn't work. This is the mistake that many folks are making in the media because they have become gone from being uh white belts to green belts with their strategy, but they haven't gone to brown belt and and black belt. So, the leaks that are coming out about the 3-day plan are uh consistent. The 3-day plan is uh President Trump is describing here. The plan that's on his desk is a plan to hit targets in Iran over a 3-day period. And as soon as the media, I believe, saw the word three in the 3-day, now this can't be anything. This must be a truly minor issue. But what we're talking about in the target sets that are coming out are a whole new level of leadership targeting, a level of economic targeting, hitting refineries, economic power and bridges. And this looks to me an an awful lot like what was instant thunder. the 3-day, it was supposed to only be a three-day plan that opened the war against Iraq in 1991 that was targeting 84 leadership and infrastructure targets where it was meant to paralyze Sodom Hussein's regime. This is exactly the air campaign that has been at the heart of many um air strategists since the 1991 war. This is when I am debating air strategy. I am literally debating the uh people who come up with that plan originally and are still pushing that plan. It says, "The 3-day plan is a Pentagon military contingency for a rapid, highintensity aerial campaign against Iran if post-election negotiations break down, presumably the midterm elections. It is designed to hit missile sites, drone launch hubs, IRGC command centers, and energy infrastructure over 72 hours to force capitulation without triggering a prolonged ground war." Trump paused major strikes until after the November 3rd midterms, but he has explicitly characterized the post-election window as a final choice to either strike a diplomatic deal with him or initiate these strikes to finish it off.

没错。这远远超出了“三天”这个词所传达的意思。你刚才读到的，完全就是“即时雷电”整套的目标群。如果……如果他实施了这个三天计划，它是否会失败？而如果失败了——

英文原文

>> That's right. This is much more than the word three days would communicate. What you just read there is exactly the full set of instant thunder uh target sets. if if he does this three-day plan thing, is does it fail? And if it fails,

它会失败。接下去发生的就是我们进入第三阶段，

英文原文

>> it fails. And then what happens is we go to stage three,

也就是为期三天的轰炸行动变成了时间长得多的轰炸行动。

英文原文

>> which is a three-day bombing campaign becomes a much longer bombing campaign.

所以这为期3天的轰炸行动拖延了下去，斯蒂芬。这完全就是当年发生的事情——

英文原文

>> So the 3-day bombing campaign drags on, Stephen. This is exactly what happened

在“即时雷电”行动中发生的事情。它最初计划为期三天，外加三天的后备打击，但是它——

英文原文

>> with Instant Thunder. It was planned as three days with an extra three days of backup strikes, but it

持续了43天，却始终未能彻底瘫痪伊拉克的军队。

英文原文

went on for 43 days, never did succeed in paralyzing the military of Iraq.

这里的期望，或者说在特朗普看来算得上成功的结果，会是他们坐到谈判桌前达成协议，重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，并保证永不拥有核武器。

英文原文

>> And the hope here, the success, as far as Trump would see it, would be that they come to the table to make a deal to reopen the straight of Hmuz and to vouch never to have nuclear weapons.

呃，不，不仅如此。那是协议的一部分，德西（Desi）。一旦你这么做了，就根本没有人能来谈判了。你正在摧毁如此大范围的领导层，以至于坐到谈判桌前这个想法……我们，特朗普总统偶尔说过他不确定该跟谁谈判。

现在，一旦进行到这种行动的第六天或第七天，你就真的不知道该跟谁谈判了，因为斯蒂芬（Stephen），这个计划的核心目的，就是要让该国政府瘫痪，使其无法运转。这个计划的目标并不是去打破政府内部鹰派和鸽派的力量平衡——就像许多只大体了解轰炸、但并不清楚战略实际运作全部细节的人所认为的那样。斯蒂芬，这是一个旨在彻底瘫痪军事实体的计划。

那么这里的问题在于，既然你已经把它打瘫痪了，你又要去跟谁谈判呢？不，这不大可能是接下来会发生的步骤。你看，一旦你现在这么做了，如果你没有彻底瘫痪其军队——而我告诉你的正是，这种情况极有可能发生——接下来会发生的，就是残留的伊朗军队，而且还会剩下相当大一部分具有强大反击能力的军队，他们就会开始猛烈反扑，并且他们能够以各种各样的方式进行反扑，包括袭击该地区的机场。

这就是真正的，这就是萨达姆·侯赛因在我们当年采取那次行动之后，他轰炸利雅得目标的那一刻。那正是他的人员在利雅得丧生的时候。事实上，我们从来没能彻底阻止伊拉克的飞毛腿导弹。

所以实际发生的情况是，我们已经看到这种门槛被打破了。这也就是为什么这一预测是可信的。这是因为我们已经看到伊朗的盟友——也即也门的胡塞武装组织——开了这个头。实际情况是，随着沙特阿拉伯与也门这个被称为胡塞武装的组织之间的冲突不断升级，胡塞武装在不同的几天里，直接用导弹袭击了利雅得国际机场的三号航站楼和四号航站楼，造成十多人死亡，300多人受伤。

这是在这场战争中，我们第一次看到直接针对平民、蓄意针对平民的袭击。而且这不仅发生了一天，而是持续了多天。我想要指出的是，随着局势的推移，这就是你可以预料到的模式。因此，你正在越陷越深。而你又能跟谁沟通，去叫他们停手呢？

英文原文

>> Uh, no, not only that. That's part of the deal, Desi. Once you do this, there's nobody to come to the table. You are destroying. so much of the leadership stratum that the idea of coming to the table. We President Trump has occasionally said he's not sure who to negotiate with. Now, once you're in day six or seven of this, you're really not going to know who to negotiate with because this is the the whole point of this plan, Stephen, is to paralyze the government so it cannot function. Their goal of the plan is not to tilt the balance of hawks and doves inside of the government the way a lot of people again who just kind of generally know about bombing but don't know the full details of the way the strategies work. This is a plan Stephen that is meant to completely paralyze the body of the military. And then the problem here is because you've paralyzed it, who are you going to negotiate with? No, that's not likely the next set of steps. You see, once you do this now, if you haven't fully paralyzed the military, and that's what I'm telling you is very likely, what's going to happen is the Iranian military that is left, and there's going to be quite a bit of it left with a lot of power to strike back, they're going to start lashing back, and they can lash back in a whole variety of ways, including attacks against airports in the region. This is the real this is the time when Sodom Hussein after we did this this is when he bombed sites in Riad. So this is when his personnel were killed in Riad. And in fact we could never stop the Scud missiles of Iraq. And so what happened is so we've seen the breaking of this threshold. This is why this is credible. It's because we've seen the beginning of this with Iran's ally, the Houthis, which is the group in Yemen. So what happened is as the escalation between Saudi Arabia and the group in Yemen called the Houthis was escalating, the Houthis directly with missiles struck terminals three and terminals four on separate days in the Riad International Airport. killing over a dozen people and wounding over 300 people. And this is the first time in this war we saw the direct targeting of civilians, intentional targeting of civilians. And it wasn't just one day, it was multiple days. And what I'm pointing out is this is the pattern that you would expect as this progresses. So that what you're doing is you're getting deeper in. And who are you going to communicate with to tell them to stop?

第六点是什么？

英文原文

>> What's number six?

第六阶段与受启发的袭击

第六点。现在我们需要明白，斯蒂芬，看看我们已经陷得多深了。我们最开始进行的，本该只是又一次有限打击。然而这一次，它正在形成自身的势头。随着它形成自身势头，现在，那个在伊朗的分散化结构开始以自行决定的方式进行反击。

但还有另一个问题。另一个问题是，斯蒂芬，这些袭击很可能会在伊朗造成成千上万平民死亡。

英文原文

>> Number six. Now we need to understand that what's happened, Stephen, is look how deep we've gone in. We started with what was supposed to be just another limited strike. This time, however, it's building its own momentum. And as it builds its own momentum, it is now now we have that decentralized structure in Iran striking back in ways it decides on its own. But there's another problem. That other problem is these attacks, Stephen, are likely going to kill thousands and thousands of civilians in Iran.

哪些袭击？这为期3天的和这为期6天的，以及这里持续进行的袭击——按照这种“即时雷电”（Instant Thunder）式飞机……这完全就是我们在91年针对萨达姆·侯赛因所执行的飞机行动。但当时那是针对他的政权，是针对经济基础设施。我们打击了他的炼油厂，我们打击了他的电力设施。在执行这个计划的过程中，我们造成了大约5000到15000名平民死亡。这并不是一个没有平民死亡的计划。所以你是说，这是一个在此期间会有很多人死亡的计划。这里会有很多人丧生，从而导致受启发的袭击。

英文原文

>> Which attacks? The 3-day and the six day and the continued attacks here on these instant thunder style airplane is exactly the airplane we executed against Sodom Hussein in 91. But it was against his regime. It was against the economic infrastructure. We hit his oil refineries. We hit his electric power. And we killed somewhere between five and 15,000 civilians in doing this plan. This is not a her a plan where no civilians die. So you're saying this is a plan lots of people are going to die through this period. Lots of people are going to die here which and that leads to inspired attacks.

所谓“受启发的袭击”，就是并非由政府指挥下达的恐怖袭击。它并非出自最高领袖。由于这一切，最高领袖甚至可能已经身亡。受启发的袭击就像我们在特拉维夫客机事件中所见到的那样。

就在字面意义上的最近，上次我上你节目时，我曾警告过你，我们很可能会看到针对平民的袭击，很有可能就是受启发的袭击。这是因为在那上千万人站出来支持最高领袖之后，他们呼吁复仇。这恰恰就是最可能激发个体自行其是的舆论土壤——我指的不是由伊朗指挥下达的——而是由他们自行发动恐怖袭击或自杀式恐怖袭击。

那么，特拉维夫事件中发生了什么？这是一名副驾驶，当时飞机从迪拜的机场起飞，机上有大约170名平民。其中大约有100名平民是以色列人。飞行进行了两个半小时后，那名副驾驶拿起了驾驶舱里备有的一把斧头。大多数人甚至都不知道驾驶舱里有把斧头。他企图夺取飞机的控制权，企图杀死机长，而当时飞机距离特拉维夫只有30分钟航程。对此，我曾详细研究过8000起自杀式袭击。

英文原文

>> What an inspired attack is is a terrorist attack that is not command directed by a government. It is not coming from the supreme leader. The supreme leader may even be dead as a result of all this. an inspired attack is what we saw in the Tel Aviv plane incident. So, we just literally saw the last time I was on your show, I was warning you that there will be we will likely see uh civilian attacks. It could well be inspired attacks. It's because in the aftermath of the tens of the 10 million plus who came out to support the supreme leader, they called for revenge. That is exactly the pool of sentiments that is likely to inspire individuals on their own, I don't mean command directed by Iran, on their own to carry out terrorist attacks or suicide terrorist attacks. Well, what happened in the Tel Aviv incident? This was a co-pilot who the plane took off from the airport in Dubai and it had about 170 civilians on the airplane. And about a hundred of those civilians were Israelis. And after 2 and 1/2 hours, that co-pilot took an hatchet that was in the cockpit. Most people didn't even know there was a hatchet in the cockpit, and he tried to take control of the plane, tried to kill the pilot, and he was only 30 minutes from Tel Aviv. So, I've studied 8,000 suicide attacks in detail.

我读过[清嗓子]一本关于这方面的书。

英文原文

>> I've read [clears throat] a book about it.

两本。你有两本。两本都在那儿。是的。是的。还有《斩断引信》（Cutting the Fuse）。所以，通过对所有这些袭击的研究，一旦我确切看到了该副驾驶企图夺取飞机控制权的具体地点，这就非常强烈地告诉我，这很可能是一次自杀式袭击。

因为如果该副驾驶只是想自杀，他很可能在飞机起飞后几乎立刻就会动手。他不会等到距离特拉维夫如此之近的时候，因为到了那时，他就有可能驾驶飞机撞向特拉维夫的目标，同时杀死飞机上的人以及特拉维夫地面上的人。

再看看哥伦比亚广播公司新闻（CBS News）这里的一些报道，他们称各类以色列官员已经将其与伊朗联系在一起，但特朗普也曾表示：“根据我所听到的消息，该副驾驶与伊朗有直接联系”，并警告称事件背后的任何国家行为体都将面临毁灭性打击。

英文原文

>> Two. You've got two. Two there. Yeah. Yeah. Cutting the fuse as well. So, so studying all those attacks once I saw exactly the location of where the co-pilot tried to take uh control of the plane, that told me very heavily this was likely a suicide attack. Because if he just wanted to kill himself, the co-pilot, he likely would have done that almost immediately after the plane had taken off. He wouldn't wait to just clo get so close to Tel Aviv that then he could have the possibility of driving it into a target in Tel Aviv, killing people on the plane and people on the ground in Tel Aviv. And looking at some of the reports here from CBS News, they say various sort of Israeli officials have linked it to Iran, but Trump also said based on what I'm hearing, the co-pilot had direct links to Iran, warning that any state actor behind the incident would face devastation.

那么，我们确实无法百分之百确定这并非指挥下达的行动。斯蒂芬，我要告诉你的是，这根本不需要是指挥下达的。我们所掌握的一些最确凿的信息来自机长本人。

如今随着身体逐渐康复，他在这里接受了采访，他描述了一种飞行中一切正常的情况。完全没有任何迹象表明他身边坐着一个精神失常、正试图以某种方式自尽等念头的人。

然后突然之间，他感觉到头部遭到重击。随后他意识到并开始把前因后果联系起来。就在那时，他拼尽全力试图让驾驶舱门保持打开状态。

实质上你在这里所看到的，我们虽然不能说百分之百确定这是一次自杀式恐怖袭击，但我的估计是，这已经从大约75%的确定性上升到了90%的确定性：这名当事人不仅想要自杀，而且还想杀死那架飞机上的所有人，并恰好掐准时机夺取飞机控制权，以便能够驾驶它撞向特拉维夫。机长表示，那天早晨开始时非常正常。

英文原文

>> Well, so we don't know for sure it wasn't command directed. Stephen, I'm telling you that it wouldn't need to be command directed. Some of the best information we have is come from the pilot himself. So now that he's healing, he's giving interviews here and he is describing a situation where everything is fine in the flight. There's no sign whatsoever that he's sitting with a mentally disturbed individual looking to somehow off himself or so forth. And then suddenly he feels a club on his head. Then he realizes and starts to put two and two together. And that's when he makes every effort to keep the door open. And essentially what you saw here was we're not we can't say it's uh 100% certain it was a suicide terrorist attack but my estimate is that it's gone from being say 75% certain to 90% certain that this is an individual who wanted to not just kill himself but to kill everybody on that plane and to take control of the plane just in time to be able to ram it into Tel Aviv. Pilot said the morning started very normally.

是

英文原文

>> Y

副驾驶提出想要祷告，随后用消防斧从背后袭击了他。

英文原文

>> the first officer asked to pray then struck him from behind with the clash axe.

是的。注意祷告这个细节。这在宗教自杀式袭击者中非常普遍。他们在实施自杀式袭击之前，通常都会进行某种特定的仪式。

英文原文

>> Yep. And notice the pray. So this is a very common religious suicide attacker. They commonly will go through a certain ritual before they do their suicide attack.

机长在意识到自己遭到袭击之前，还以为是一件沉重的设备砸在了自己的头上。随着失血导致视野变窄，他唯一的念头就是解开安全带，向着驾驶舱门释放开关爬过去。

他解释说，每一次用尽体力的挣扎都让他意识时断时续。他提到了当自己倒在地板上时，感受到飞机机鼻剧烈向下栽去的恐怖感觉。

他认定自己无法生还，于是在面朝下昏倒之前用尽全力打开了防弹门，这使得其他乘客得以看见他并冲了进来。

然后据我从报道中所听到的，乘客们冲过门，制服了副驾驶，而我记不清——我不知道是谁把飞机降落的。机长当时能够……

英文原文

>> The pilot thought that a heavy piece of equipment had fallen on his head before realizing he was under assault. As his vision tunnneled from blood loss, his sole focus was releasing his seat belt and crawling towards the cockpit door release. He explained that each burst of physical effort caused him to fade in and out of consciousness. He noted the terrifying sensation of feeling the aircraft plunge violently nose down while he was on the floor. Believing he would not survive, he pushed through to unlock the reinforced door before collapsing face down, which allowed other passengers to see him and rush in. And then I think from what I heard in the reports, passengers rushed through the door, restrained the co-pilot, and I can't I don't know who landed the plane. Was the pilot able to

不，机上其实碰巧有一名懂飞行技术、具备降落飞机知识的乘客。这

英文原文

>> No, there was actually somebody on board who was a pilot, had the knowledge to land the plane. This

……碰巧在那里的备用飞行员，那真是极其走运。但斯蒂芬，你在这里看到的是明显的迹象。因为如果这是自杀，你本会以为它会立刻发生。而如果是一名自杀式袭击者，他们首先会想到的是，如果在距离特拉维夫还有两个半小时航程的地方夺取了飞机控制权——记住，从迪拜飞往特拉维夫需要三个小时——如果他们夺取飞机控制权的地方太远，那么就会为以色列创造紧急起飞战机以阻止其袭击特拉维夫的机会。所以……

英文原文

was

an

unintentional

backup

pilot

that

just

happened

to

be

there

and

that

was

um

extremely

fortuitous.

But

what

you

see

here,

Stephen,

are

the

telltale

signs.

Because

if

it

was

suicide,

then

you

would

have

expected

it

to

happen

right

away.

And

if

it

was

a

suicide

attacker,

the

first

thing

that

that

would

come

to

their

mind

is

if

they

took

control

of

the

plane

2

and

1/2

hours

from

Tel

Aviv.

Remember,

it's

a

3-hour

flight

to

Tel

Aviv

from

Dubai.

If

they

took

control

of

the

plane

too

far

out,

well

then

that

would

create

the

opportunity

for

Israel

to

scramble

jets

to

prevent

it

from

striking

Tel

Aviv.

So

所以你曾经认为，你认为他们当时是试图开着飞机撞向以色列？

英文原文

>> So

you

thought

you

think

that

they

were

trying

to

crash

the

plane

into

Israel?

是的，我认为这非常有可能，而这就是我所说的受启发的袭击。当我看到第一次指挥指导的袭击时，那就是胡塞武装针对平民的行动。我们已经看到了实际发生的受启发的恐怖袭击。好了，我们继续往下看。

英文原文

>> Yes,

I

think

it's

very

strong

and

this

is

what

what

I

mean

by

inspired

attacks.

When

I

saw

the

first

command

directed

attack,

that's

the

Houthis

on

civilians.

We've

seen

an

actual

inspired

terrorist

attack

that

has

already

happened.

Well,

let's

keep

going.

赞助商赞助信息

目前商业中最大的不公平优势，就是拥有真正懂人工智能的人才，而大企业正在以非常非常快的速度聘请他们。自2023年以来，美国的人工智能职位发布量大致翻了一番，而人工智能副总裁（VP of AI）职位的发布量则增长了约600%。如果你经营一家小型企业，你无法直接组建一整支人工智能团队，但你仍然希望拥有与这些大企业相同的优势。这就是我们的赞助商Fiverr发挥作用的地方。它能让你对接顶级人工智能专家，开展通常需要深厚内部专业知识的战略性工作。这可能意味着构建定制的人工智能工具，可能意味着自动化复杂的工作流程，或者打造现成软件根本无法实现的东西。因为归根结底，这仍然取决于人的判断，即知道什么值得构建，以及真正的优质成果是什么样的。所以，如果你希望在业务中获得这种杠杆效应，请访问 fiverr.com。也就是有两个 r 的 fiverr.com。

英文原文

>> The

biggest

unfair

advantage

in

business

right

now

is

having

people

who

genuinely

understand

AI,

and

big

businesses

are

hiring

them

very,

very

quickly.

AI

job

postings

in

the

US

have

roughly

doubled

since

2023,

while

postings

for

VP

of

AI

roles

are

around

600%

up.

If

you're

running

a

small

business,

you

can't

just

build

an

entire

AI

team,

but

you

still

want

the

same

advantage

that

these

big

businesses

have.

This

is

where

our

sponsor

Fiverr

comes

in.

It

lets

you

plug

into

top

tier

AI

specialists

for

the

strategic

work

that

usually

requires

serious

in-house

expertise.

That

could

mean

building

custom

AI

tools.

It

could

mean

automating

complex

workflows

or

creating

something

that

off-the-shelf

software

simply

cannot

do.

Because

at

the

end

of

the

day,

it

still

comes

down

to

human

judgment,

knowing

what's

worth

building

and

what

good

actually

looks

like.

So,

if

you

want

that

kind

of

leverage

in

your

business,

check

out

fiverr.com.

That's

fiverr

with

two

rs.com.

这可能对我的办公室产生了最大的单一影响。在我尝试过所有能为我带来生产力提升或认知增强的产品中，我会说外源酮体能排进为我带来巨大生产力提升的最关键的三大物品之中。这是几位斯坦福毕业生研发的，他们基本上能够将你在生酮饮食中获得的效果，浓缩到你可以饮用的一小瓶浓缩饮品中，它能让你感到异常专注，并为你的大脑提供令人难以置信的能量来源。而且在外源酮体上进行的临床研究绝对让我叹为观止。我联系了他们，我成为了该公司的联合……我成为了这家公司的投资者。因此，我非常自豪地告诉大家这个产品的存在。如果你还没有尝试过这些饮品，请访问 ketone.com/stephven 享受订阅订单七折优惠，你的第二次发货还将获赠一份免费礼物。我目前仍然主要在网上购买我的酮体饮品，但值得庆幸的是，现在在美国只要开车路过Target，我也随时能去买到，因为我们现在已经在Target上架了，在那里你的第一瓶完全免费。

英文原文

This

has

had

probably

the

single

biggest

impact

on

my

office.

Of

all

the

products

that

I've

tried

that

have

given

me

productivity

gains

or

cognitive

boosts,

I

would

say

that

exogenous

ketones

are

in

the

top

three

most

pivotal

things

that

have

given

me

a

massive

productivity

gain.

It's

some

Stanford

graduates

that

have

been

able

to

basically

bottle

up

the

effect

you

get

from

being

in

a

ketogenic

diet

in

a

small

shot

that

you

can

take

that

makes

you

feel

incredibly

focused

and

gives

your

brain

an

incredible

source

of

energy.

And

the

clinical

studies

that

have

been

done

on

exogenous

ketones

have

absolutely

blown

my

mind.

I

reached

out

to

them.

I

became

a

coer

in

the

company.

I

became

an

investor

in

the

company.

And

so

it's

with

great

pride

that

I

can

tell

you

that

this

exists.

If

you

haven't

tried

these

shots,

go

to

ketone.com/stephven

for

30%

off

your

subscription

order

and

you'll

also

get

a

free

gift

with

your

second

shipment.

I

still

buy

my

ketone

shots

predominantly

online,

but

thankfully

I

can

now

grab

them

at

Target

whenever

I

drive

past

them

here

in

the

United

States

as

well

because

we're

now

stocked

in

Target

where

your

first

shot

is

completely

free.

地缘危机与美国大选连锁反应

那么你为什么跳到另一条线上去了？

英文原文

>> So

why

did

you

jump

up

to

the

other

line?

因为我们需要看到这种相互作用，这是一场正在展开的危机。

英文原文

>> Because

we

need

to

see

the

interactions

of

this

is

a

crisis

that's

unfolding.

好。

英文原文

Okay.

你看，你在这里看到的是，选举结果正在产生沿着这条道路走下去的动机。但这并不仅仅停留它自己的路径上。它开始发挥作用，反弹回来，并开始影响这里的事件，因为随着这种情况的发生，我们必须预料到汽油价格会上涨。我们必须预料到柴油价格会上涨。我们必须预料到本来就已经冻结的房地产市场将进一步冻结。因此，当我们开始看到这里的相互作用，或者说影响时——这些影响并不仅仅局限于伊朗正在发生的事情，甚至不局限于经济中正在发生的事情，这还将在世界经济中显现——它将关乎人们的想法。我们在法国刚刚深刻体会了人们的想法，在法国发生的事情不仅仅是一天的问题，也不仅仅是单次事件，它开始……骚乱开始蔓延到欧洲其他地区，而骚乱的很大一部分原因——虽然不是骚乱的唯一原因。在这点上我们有一些实际的民调数据，所以我不是在泛泛而谈，但骚乱的很大一部分原因是由于伊朗战争导致物价上涨。嗯，这完全是在重演并加剧那些动态。所以，现在我们回到这里的可能性：抗议者与联邦特工开始发生冲突。这是一个他们仍在计票的时刻。因此现在出现了越来越多的检验，但此时选票也尚未获得认证。所以请注意我们所处的节点。我们已经跨过了11月，但权力向新一届国会的移交还远远没有结束。所以我们经历了整场极具争议的选举。我们有这样的进程，即选票的统计和认证仍在进行。我们看到这种情况并非孤立发生，而是伴随着一系列国际事件，这些事件正……

英文原文

>> See,

what

you

are

seeing

here

is

that

the

election

results

are

creating

incentives

to

go

down

this

road.

But

this

doesn't

just

stay

on

its

own

path.

It

starts

to

play

a

role

and

come

back

up

and

start

to

affect

events

here

because

as

this

is

occurring,

we

need

to

expect

gas

prices

are

going

up.

We

need

to

expect

diesel

prices

are

going

up.

we

need

to

expect

the

housing

market

which

is

already

frozen

up

is

going

to

freeze

up

even

more.

So

this

as

we

start

to

see

the

interaction

here

or

the

the

the

effects

the

effects

are

not

simply

what's

happening

in

Iran

or

even

what's

happening

in

the

economy

and

this

will

be

in

the

world

economy

it's

going

to

be

what

people

think

and

we

just

got

a

big

lesson

in

what

people

think

in

France

and

what

happened

in

France

wasn't

just

a

one-day

problem

and

it

wasn't

just

a

one-off

it's

starting

it

started

to

spread

to

other

parts

of

Europe

the

riots

and

a

big

part

of

the

riots

not

the

only

reason

for

the

riots.

So,

we

have

some

actual

opinion

poll

data

on

this.

So,

I'm

not

just

speaking

generally,

but

a

big

part

of

the

reason

for

the

riots

are

the

rising

prices

due

to

the

Iran

war.

Well,

this

is

exactly

recreating

and

making

those

dynamics

worse.

So,

now

we're

back

over

to

the

possibility

here

of

protesters

and

federal

agents

starting

to

clash.

This

is

a

moment

when

they're

still

counting

ballots.

So

now

there's

more

and

more

tests

occurring,

but

it's

also

at

a

point

where

the

ballots

have

not

been

certified

yet.

So

notice

where

we

are.

We

have

moved

through

November

and

we

have

nowhere

near

come

to

the

end

of

transfer

of

power

to

the

new

Congress.

So

we

have

this

whole

very

contentious

election.

We

have

the

process

here

where

we

still

have

the

counting

and

the

certification

of

the

ballots.

We

have

that

occurring

not

in

isolation

but

in

addition

to

an

international

set

of

events

that

are

just

还有俄罗斯……

英文原文

>> and

also

the

Russia

还有俄罗斯。所以我们跳过了普京。那么在第四周这里还发生了什么……在第……嗯，大约第四周。这可能是在感恩节前后。斯蒂芬，我们无法在Polymarket上精确到某一天，但我们只是给出事件的先后顺序。因此，随着伊朗战争目前的升级，我们面临着这样的问题：特朗普与普京之间是否会达成一项真正的协议，从而阻止普京在乌克兰问题上升级局势。普京感兴趣的可不仅仅是与特朗普总统合个影之类的。他希望从特朗普总统那里得到的是，对乌克兰施加真正的压力，迫使其屈服于普京的要求。

英文原文

>> and

also

the

Russia.

So

we

we've

skipped

over

Putin.

So

what's

happened

here

also

in

week

four

in

week

well

roughly

week

four.

This

would

be

around

Thanksgiving

possibly.

can't

really

polymarket

it

to

the

day,

Stephen,

but

we're

just

giving

the

sequence.

So,

as

the

Iran

war

is

escalating

now,

we

have

the

the

issue

of

will

there

be

an

actual

deal

with

Trump

and

Putin

that

prevents

Putin

from

escalating

on

Ukraine.

Putin

isn't

just

interested

in

some

sort

of,

you

know,

uh,

photo

op

with

President

Trump.

What

he

wants

out

of

President

Trump

is

he

wants

there

to

be

real

pressure

on

Ukraine

to

cave

to

Putin's

demands.

你认为普京想从乌克兰得到什么？

英文原文

>> What

do

you

think

Putin

wants

from

Ukraine?

你认为他总体上想要什么？

英文原文

>> What

do

you

think

he

wants

generally?

嗯，让我们看看其中的一些地图。

英文原文

>> Well,

let's

uh

let's

look

at

some

of

the

maps.

我有一张地图。

英文原文

>> I've

got

a

map.

乌克兰领土控制与俄乌战局

是的。你看，理解这一点的一个非常好的方法就是看这张地图，这是2022年8月的，也就是入侵乌克兰四个月后。你可以看到，这里的战线已经稳定在乌克兰东部。你可以看到基辅周围已经不再有俄罗斯军队。全部都在乌克兰南部和乌克兰东部的边缘地带。你所能看到的是，这是顿涅茨克。这些是普京已经吞并的部分地区。他已经正式吞并了它们。而且这也是克里米亚。

英文原文

>> Yeah.

So

a

really

good

way

to

understand

this

you

see

is

in

this

map

which

is

August

of

2022

4

months

after

invaded

Ukraine.

You

can

see

that

the

lines

here

have

settled

down

into

eastern

Ukraine.

You

can

see

there's

no

longer

Russian

forces

around

Keev.

uh

all

on

the

edges

of

the

south

of

Ukraine

and

the

east

of

Ukraine.

And

what

you

can

see

is

this

is

Donatka.

The

these

are

some

of

the

areas

that

Putin

has

already

annexed.

He's

officially

annexed

them.

And

also

this

is

Crimea.

你看普京仍然想至少获得这里的其余这片领土。这些是他尚未攻占的这四个州的组成部分。他已经在官方层面上将它们并入俄罗斯。他实际上已经在俄罗斯通过了法律，但他还没有在实际中控制它们。所以，他至少有兴趣控制这里和这里的这片白色区域。请注意，在此时，他距离那个目标还相当遥远。现在他也可能——而且他谈到了一个叫做“新俄罗斯”（Nova Russia Rousia）的地区，这……这将是紧随前四个州之后的下一组州，也就是这个被称为“新俄罗斯”（Nova Ria）的地区，那里也是乌克兰境内有大量讲俄语人口居住的地方。因此这里的争论在于，普京是仅仅想要这周围的白色领土，还是他也想要这个？但是让我们看看四年后他的处境，在整整四年之后，并且损失了至少25万死亡的俄罗斯人。斯蒂芬，这是最低数字。有统计数据远高于这个数字。但这些是基于讣告的统计，因此我们按名字非常确定至少有这个数量的俄罗斯人死亡。看看他离目标有多远。看看那片白色区域。他获得了一点点领土，大约是乌克兰领土的1%，但是看看他距离我刚才指出的那片白色区域仍然有多远。这是2026年7月，而他当然远远没有接近第二组的四个州。所以他……我们……所以当我们说普京想要一项协议时，这并不是指普京满足于签署某种纸面文件、仅仅去和特朗普合个影。他想要特朗普做的是交出他在乌克兰想要的领土。你认为会发生什么？

英文原文

You

see

that

Putin

is

still

wanting

to

gain

at

least

the

rest

of

this

territory

right

around

here.

These

are

the

pieces

of

these

four

Oblasts

that

he

has

not

conquered

yet.

He

has

officially

annexed

them

in

into

Russia.

He's

he's

actually

passed

laws

in

Russia,

but

he

has

not

physically

taken

control

of

them.

So,

at

a

minimum,

he's

interested

in

controlling

this

bit

of

white

around

here

and

here.

And

notice

at

this

point,

he's

he's

pretty

far

away

from

that.

Now

he

may

also

and

he's

talked

about

an

area

called

Nova

Russia

Rousia

which

is

uh

this

would

be

the

next

set

of

oblas

just

behind

the

first

four

and

that

is

this

area

called

Nova

Ria

which

is

also

where

vast

numbers

of

Russian

speakers

also

live

in

Ukraine.

So

the

debate

here

is

whether

Putin

only

wants

this

white

territory

around

here

or

does

he

also

want

this?

But

let's

look

where

he

is

four

years

later

after

four

solid

years

and

the

loss

at

a

minimum

of

250,000

dead

Russians.

This

is

the

minimum,

Stephen.

There's

uh

counts

that

go

far

higher

than

that.

But

these

are

the

counts

based

on

obituaries

so

that

we're

really

sure

by

name

that

at least

that

number

of

Russians

have

died.

Look

at

how

far

he

is

away.

Look

at

the

white.

He's

gained

a

little

bit

of

territory,

about

1%

of

Ukraine

territory,

but

look

how

far

away

he

still

is

from

that

white

area

I

just

pointed

out.

This

is

July

2026,

and

he

of

course

is

nowhere

near

the

second

force.

So

he

is

we

So

when

we

say

that

Putin

wants

a

deal,

this

is

not

Putin

settling

for

some

sort

of

a

signed

piece

of

paper

where

he's

just

going

to

have

a

photo

op

with

Trump.

What

he

wants

Trump

to

do

is

deliver

the

territory

that

he

wants

in

Ukraine.

What

do

you

think

is

going to

happen?

我不认为普京会得到……特朗普将无法交付。特朗普可以说他会交付它，但他凭自己做不到这一点。只有乌克兰才能交付那个……

英文原文

>> I

don't

think

Putin

is

going

to

get

Trump

is

not

going

to

be

able

to

deliver.

Trump

can

say

that

he'll

deliver

it,

but

he

can't

do

that

on

his

own.

only

Ukraine

could

deliver

that

领土。泽连斯基要是真的割让那片领土，很有可能会被自己的人民、自己的军队、自己的……因为……

英文原文

territory. For Zalinski to truly surrender that territory, there's a good chance he'll be killed by his own people, his own military, his own because

如果他放弃了，他们就会杀了他。

英文原文

>> would kill him if he gave it up.

天哪。是的。是的。是的。所以大众对国际政治不了解的地方——我是指聪明人不了解、甚至懂很多历史的人也不了解的地方——在于，领导人在身处败局时会冒极大的风险。我刚才向你解释了特朗普在这里冒的风险，对于处于普京境地或泽连斯基境地的人来说，他们字面上讨论的是是否会获得或割让领土，泽连斯基若是真要去割让——不仅是普京目前拥有的领土，甚至还要割让更多——这等于把自己的性命和家人的性命悬在刀口上。

英文原文

>> Oh my gosh. Yes. Yes. Yes. So what what people don't know about international politics, I mean smart people don't know, people who even know a lot of history is leaders take dramatic risks when they're losers. I just explained to you the risk that Trump was taking here with the for someone in Putin's position or Zalinsk's position where they're literally talking about whether or not they will gain or surrender pieces of territory for Zalinsky to actually surrender not just the territory Putin currently has but even more. This is taking his life in his hands and his family's life in his hands.

第七项是什么？

英文原文

>> What's number seven?

普京的升级与冬季能源打击

啊，那我们接着看。这就是普京因为拿不到领土……这就是普京升级局势的时候。这是普京确定特朗普无法再交付更多领土后最有可能的时机。这大约是在感恩节前后。这是普京将要开始意识到自己无法从特朗普那里获得领土、无法从特朗普手中获得乌克兰领土的一个可能的时间点。因此他转向了下一步计划，那就是冬季攻势，袭击基辅、哈尔科夫、敖德萨的发电站——那是乌克兰的首都以及乌克兰靠近他想要控制区域的两座主要城市。通过袭击那些电力区域，他并非只是想造成几天的限电断电、让你几天用不上空调或暖气。计划是要摧毁那些城市90%的电力，让电力一直断掉。要是真给打掉那么多，这可能要持续一两个月。

英文原文

>> Ah, so let's keep looking. This is when Putin because doesn't get the territory. This is when Putin escalates. This is the most likely time after Putin is sure that Trump can't deliver any more territory. This is uh right around Thanksgiving. This is a likely possible time here when Putin is going to start to uh realize he can't get territory from Trump, Ukrainian territory from Trump. So he moves to his next plan which is the winter attacking the electric power stations in Kev, Carke, Odessa that is the capital city of Ukraine and two of the major cities in Ukraine near the areas he wants to control. And by attacking those electric power areas, he's not looking to just cause a couple of days of brown out where you don't have your air conditioning or your heating for a couple of days. a plan is to knock out 90% of the power in those cities and that would keep that out. If you truly knock that out for that that that amount, this is probably going to last a month or two.

这很大程度上是他自己的升级陷阱。

英文原文

>> This is very much his own escalation trap.

普京非常深地陷入了升级陷阱，因为普京当初发动了将近20万俄罗斯军队，目的不仅是拿下乌克兰南部和乌克兰东部。记得当时他们还包围了基辅。当时的意图是拿下基辅。所以这是要拿下大半个国家，但他输了。因此他陷入了自己的升级陷阱。普京正是如此，因为如果他接受投降、接受屈服，现在他就得面对自己的军方。而且他面临的不仅是羞辱和历史上可怕的名声，他还真真切切面临着很多独裁领袖在输掉重大战争时面临的命运，那就是被杀。

英文原文

>> very much Putin is in an escalation trap because Putin started this by launching almost 200,000 Russian troops in order to not just take the southern part of Ukraine and eastern part of Ukraine. Remember they were surrounding Kev. The idea here was to take Kev. So this was to take almost half of the country and he lost. So he is in his own escalation trap. Putin is because if he accepts surrender, if he accepts capitulation, now he has his own military to deal with. and he faces in not just humiliation and a horrible legacy in history, but he really faces the fate of a lot of authoritarian leaders do when they lose uh major wars, which is being killed.

你认为这两场战争接下来会怎样？

英文原文

>> What do you think is going to happen with both of these wars?

我认为它们会同时发生。这张图表所做的、我们在这里在这张图表上真正展示的，是这三种动态几乎都在完全相同的八周内发生。

英文原文

>> I think they're going to happen at the same time. What this what this chart is doing, what we're really showing here on this chart is all three of these dynamics are occurring at literally the over literally the same eight weeks.

接下来会发生什么？

英文原文

>> And what happens next?

暴力民粹主义的蔓延与引信机制

接下来发生的是它们开始相互交织作用。所以现在我们看到，我们开始看到这里的暴力民粹主义真正开始小规模升级了。

英文原文

>> What happens next is they start to interact with each other. So now as we see that we're starting to see the escalation here of violent populism starting in a small way for real.

当你说暴力民粹主义时，暴力民粹主义是什么意思？

英文原文

>> And when you say violent populism, what does violent populism mean?

暴力民粹主义是指政治暴力从边缘走向主流，不仅有少量的暴力参与者，而且有大量的暴力参与者。你面对的不只是一起孤立的政治暗杀企图，而是数年间接二连三的一连串暗杀；你面对的不只是一场针对比如警察打人事件的局部抗议。罗德尼·金就是局部抗议的典型例子，当时在洛杉矶发生了四天的暴动，但仅限于洛杉矶。那是在1990年代初。而在暴力民粹主义下，这种现象开始蔓延。它开始蔓延，并变得重大得多。

英文原文

>> Violent populism is when political violence moves from the fringe to the mainstream where you have not just small numbers of violent actors, but large numbers of violent actors. You don't just have an isolated political assassination attempt. You have strings of them over a period of years and you don't just have a protest that's a localized protest over say a police beating. Rodney King would be the classic example of of of a localized protest where in LA there were four days of riots but only in LA. That was in the early 1990s. With violent populism this starts to spread. It starts to spread and become much much more significant.

那有点像席卷全球的“黑人的命也是命”抗议吗？

英文原文

>> Was that kind of like the Black Lives Matter pro protest which spread across the world?

没错。发生的是一个单一的焦点事件——我稍后就会向你展示这些实际上是如何发生的——它可以像野火一样蔓延，因为伴随着暴力民粹主义，政治暴力呈现出全新的维度。斯蒂芬，让我解释一下我的意思。我喜欢用野火来比喻暴力民粹主义。部分原因是有很多人了解野火，他们知道之所以会发生野火，是因为我们有这种易燃物。通常是堆在那里的干木头，也许伴随着全球变暖，我们拥有的干木头更多了，而这是可以预测的。我们实际上可以预测野火季节中易燃物的体量。但在野火季节我们无法预测的是火星。引爆这一切的火星是什么？这些总是不可预测的，火星可能就是扔进去的一个烟头。所以让我给你展示一下那可能是什么样子的。

英文原文

>> Exactly. It happened was a single focal point event and I'm going to show you how these uh actually occur in just a moment can spread like wildfire because with violent populism, political violence takes on a whole new dimension. Stephen, let me explain what I mean. I like to use the analogy for violent populism of a wildfire. And the part of the reason for that is because a lot of people know about wildfires and they know that in why we have a wildfire is we have this combustible material. Uh it's often dry wood that's been sitting there and maybe with global warming it's got we've gotten more of it and this is predictable. We can actually predict the size of the combustible material in a wildfire season. But what we can't do in wildfire season is predict the spark. What is the spark that's going to set this off? These are always unpredictable and the sparks can be a cigarette butt that's thrown in. So let me just show you what that might look like.

那么仅在这个比喻中，什么是易燃物？

英文原文

>> So just in this analogy, what is the combustible material?

在这个比喻中，伴随着暴力民粹主义的易燃物，是政治光谱两边数以百万计为了自身目标而支持政治暴力的美国人。今天我们有超过4000万美国人为了特朗普的目标支持政治暴力。我们有超过6000万美国人为了反对特朗普的目标支持政治暴力。他们就是可能被点燃的易燃物。

英文原文

>> In this analogy, the combustible material um with violent populism are the millions of Americans on both sides of the political spectrum who support political violence for their goals. And today we have over 40 million Americans who support political violence for Trump's goals. We have over 60 million Americans who support political violence against Trump's goals. They are the combustible material that can be set off.

所以你的意思是，有了那种借口、有了那种愤怒，再加上人们更加支持以暴力实现其政治目标，所需要的仅仅是一个火星。

英文原文

>> So you're saying with that pretext, with the sort of anger and with people being more supportive of violence to achieve their political goals, all it's going to take is a spark.

所需要的仅仅是一个火星。试想一下，既然我们已经提到了乔治·弗洛伊德，我们也用1月6日作为一个例子。1月6日发生的事情是，特朗普总统利用他的言论，通过2020年12月19日的一条推文号召MAGA前往华盛顿，在椭圆形草坪听他讲话。然后当他们在椭圆形草坪那里时，他让他们向国会大厦进军，这仍然算是在引导所有干燥易燃物的走向。然后发生的事情是出现了真正的火星，那么引爆1月6日的真正火星是什么？那是特朗普发的另一条推文，在推文里他告诉他们迈克·彭斯让他们失望了。就在那一刻，人群响应那条推文从多处冲入了国会大厦。也就是在那个时候，你可以听到口号声：“绞死迈克·彭斯。绞死迈克·彭斯。”这就是行动中的暴力民粹主义。

英文原文

>> All it's going to take is a spark. And imagine, let's use also, cuz we already mentioned George Floyd, let's use January 6 as an example. What happened on on January 6 is President Trump used his rhetoric, a tweet on December 19th, 2020 to call a MAGA to Washington to listen to him at the Ellipse. Then when they were there at the ellipse, he told them to march on the capital still kind of channeling where the all the dry combustible material were. Then what happened is there was the true spark and what was that true spark that set off January 6? It was another week by Trump where he told them Mike Pence had let them down. At that moment, that's when the crowd burst through into the capital in multiple places in response to that tweet. And that's when you can hear the chance, "Hang Mike Pence. Hang Mike Pence." That's violent populism in action.

连锁危机与物资储备

并且请注意我们需要的是什么，就像你所做的那样，我们需要一条防火隔离带。而且我们不想等到下一场大火发生，因为如果我们等到下一场野火发生，斯蒂芬，它可能会发生并且蔓延得极其迅速，以至于我们可能陷入类似法国的境地。所以请注意，在法国这并不仅仅是一场针对一座政府大楼失控的局部抗议事件。这是一连串失控的抗议活动。它们失控不仅仅在巴黎，而是在法国的多个城市。然后一周后，它们又再次发生，并且不仅仅局限于巴黎和法国的城市。它向外蔓延开来。所以这就是我所说的暴力民粹主义开始显现，以及这些冲突。

这是联邦特工与抗议者之间就比如说可能的选票清点所发生的冲突。这就是我所说的焦点事件。这从字面上讲就是这里的一个可以充当火星的事件，它可以触动那些情绪，而那就是行动中的暴力民粹主义。

所以现在请注意，我们看到美国国内开始出现真正的重大问题。我们在伊朗有正在进一步恶化的重大问题，而这些问题正在相互助长。我们在俄乌战争中有正在发生的重大问题，而这也将推高能源价格。这将……这些不再是孤立脱节的事件了。

英文原文

And notice what we need is just like what you did, which is we need a fire break. And we don't want to wait until the next fire because that if we wait until the next wildfires to occur, we may not it may happen and spread so quickly, Stephen, that we may be in a situation like France. So notice in France that this wasn't just a localized event where it was a protest that got out of hand against one government building. This was a series of protests that got out of hand. And they got out of hand just in Paris, but in multiple cities in in in France. And then a week later, they happened again and wasn't just limited to Paris and cities in France. It spread beyond itself. So this is what I mean by violent populism starting to emerge and these clashes. this between uh the federal agents and protesters over say possibly u ballot counting. This is what I mean by a focal point event. It's literally an event here that can act as a spark and it can touch off those sentiments and that is violent populism in action. So now we have notice we have actual major problems starting to happen inside the United States. We have major problems in Iran that are just getting worse and these are feeding each other. We have major problems that are happening in the Russian Ukraine war and this too is going to increase energy prices. This is going to these are these are not disconnected events anymore.

这难道是……难道这就是为什么我想好像是韦斯·斯特里廷说过我们在英国需要储备这些东西？

英文原文

Is that is that why I think it was Wes Streeting that said we in the UK need to stock up on on this stuff.

这正是为什么我认为他们在储备。他们正在呼吁公众储备电池，以便在互联网中断时使用。为什么会去储备电池？因为未来还会面临更多的问题。

英文原文

>> That is exactly why I think they are stocking. They're asking the public to stock up on batteries so that in case the internet goes down. Why would you stock up on batteries? Because there's more problems down the road here.

那个告诉我他说过这话的人，其实我漏掉了那条新闻。

英文原文

>> The one that told me he said this, I actually missed that piece of news.

是的。

英文原文

>> Yes.

你是说英国政府已经要求英国民众储备电池……

英文原文

You're saying the UK government has asked people in the UK to stock up on batteries

储备电池、豆类罐头、手电筒、水。因为随着这种模式可能发生，随着这种……

英文原文

>> on batteries, beans, flashlights, water. Because what can happen as this pattern, as this

局势升级与英国应急储备号召

升级变得越来越严重的情况是，你可以开始看到乌克兰将开始在这里反击俄罗斯，然后俄罗斯可能会开始惩罚乌克兰的支持者和欧洲，包括就在伦敦这里，就在英国这里。这就是为什么国防大臣正在呼吁做准备。并不是说有战术情报表明明天就会出现威胁，但我认为看着我们正在列出的这个看板，斯蒂芬，看着这个然后说，等等，等一下。这里失去控制的风险开始变得真实起来。与其等到网络攻击导致比如互联网中断数天，或者英国断电数天之后恐慌蔓延，不如现在就去储备一些物资，以便你能渡过其中的一些难关。因此，英国政府已正式要求各家庭为国家紧急情况做好准备，发起了“做好准备”（Be Ready）行动，建议每个家庭储备至少3天份的基本物资，以在潜在的敌对国家袭击、网络战或重大基础设施瘫痪中生存下来。英国民众被要求每人每天储存3升瓶装水、3天份的耐储存罐头食品，以及电池供电的手摇式手电筒、收音机。这就是为什么这个……

英文原文

escalation gets worse and worse is you can start to see that Ukraine will will uh start to back here against Russia and then Russia may start to punish the supporters of Ukraine and Europe including right here in London, right here in Britain. And that's why the defense minister is um uh calling for preparations. Not saying there's a tactical intelligence that there is a threat coming tomorrow, but I believe looking at something like this board that we are uh outlining, Stephen, and looking at this and saying, well, wait a second, wait a second. The risk here of this starting to get out of control is starting to become real. And rather than wait for a panic to ensue after there would be a cyber attack that would say knock out the internet for several days or knock out electric power in Britain for several uh for several days. Go ahead, stock up on some stuff now so you can ride out some of those issues. So, the UK government has officially told households to prepare for national emergencies, launching the Be Ready campaign, which advises every family to stockpile at least 3 days worth of essential supplies to survive potential hostile state attacks, cyber warfare, or major infrastructure collapse. Britons are being asked to store 3 L of bottled water per person per day, a 3-day cache of non-p perishable tinned food alongside battery powered windup torches, radios. That's why this

为什么，布兰妮·斯皮尔斯的收音机？

英文原文

>> Y Britney Spears radio

电池供电的收音机，

英文原文

>> battery powered radios,

充电宝、急救箱和实体——

英文原文

>> power banks, first aid kits, and

实体现金。

英文原文

physical physical cash.

之所以要实体现金，斯蒂芬，是因为自动取款机到时候将无法工作。

英文原文

And the reason for physical cash, Stephen, is because ATMs won't work.

这直接指向了现代冲突和国家支持的蓄意破坏的现实。摆在公众面前的严峻问题是，在电子支付系统或当地超市供应链突然崩溃的时刻，普通人将如何应对。这一警告已经引发了恐慌性抢购，超市货架上的瓶装水和罐头食品被抢购一空，同时在全国范围内引发了对紧急物资的大规模抢购。这太疯狂了。

英文原文

>> Pointing directly to the reality of modern conflict and state sponsored sabotage. The stark question being put to the public is how ordinary people would cope in a moment where electronic payment systems or local supermarket supply chains suddenly collapsed. A warning that has already driven panic buying, stripping supermarket shelves of bottled water and canned goods while sparking a massive run on emergency supplies across the entire country. That is crazy.

确实如此，斯蒂芬，这表明各国政府已经在关注我们在此列出的风险了。因此，当我们看到美国从中东各地的使馆撤回人员和家属时，当我们看到英国政府启动“做好准备”3天应急储备行动时，你所看到的是各国政府开始意识到正在显现的风险。

英文原文

It is and it's showing Stephen that governments are already paying attention to the risks that we're laying out here. So when we see the United States pulling back its personnel and families from embassies around the Middle East, when we see the British government initiating a be ready 3-day preparation campaign, what you are seeing is governments are understanding the risks that are that are starting to emerge.

我接下来要说的是一段广告，但这个特定广告有些相当不同的地方。Grockbot现在赞助了本节目，而我已经投资了SpaceX，也就是拥有Grockbot的公司。Grockbot是我手机上的一个应用，但它也在我的电脑上。基本上，我拥有所有这些不同的智能体。你可以把它们想象成现在正和我一起工作的团队成员。与其他人工智能不同的是，它们都有自己的电脑，这意味着如果我关掉手机，如果我合上笔记本电脑，它们依然每周7天、每天24小时不间断地处理我交给它们的任务。我有一个智能体专门根据我在播客中所说的话来构思新的创意想法。这简直太疯狂了。这在8月份才刚刚推出。它再次让我腾出精力去做那些作为创作者、企业家、投资者唯独我应该做的事情，也就是品味、创造力、判断力这些更高层次的事情。你今天就可以用Crockbot完成更多工作。前往 x.ai/doac 即可享受首月五折优惠。x.ai/doac。

英文原文

What I'm about to say is an ad, but there's something quite different about this particular ad. Grockbot now sponsors this show, and I've already invested in SpaceX, which is the company that owns Grockbot. Grockbot is an app on my phone, but it's also on my computer. And basically, I have all of these different agents. You can think of them like team members that are working with me to do work right now. And unlike other AIs, they all have their own computer, which means that if I turn off my phone, if I close my laptop, they continue working 7 days a week, 24/7 on tasks that I've given them. I've got one that comes up with new creative ideas based on things that I've said on the podcast. It is absolutely insane. This only came out in August. It's freed me up again to do the things that only I should be doing as a creative, as an entrepreneur, as an investor, which is the sort of higher level things around taste, creativity, judgment. You will get more done with Crockbot today. And you can get 50% off your first month by heading to x.ai/doac. x.ai/ doac.

那么接下来会发生什么？

英文原文

So what happens next?

随着我们现在继续往下走，

英文原文

>> So as we keep going now,

美国水务系统被迫转为人工操作。

英文原文

>> US water systems forced to manual.

网络攻击与媒体管控

是的。这就是真正的危险开始显现的地方。一旦我们看到网络攻击，我们……我们需要明白，今年夏天在明尼苏达州以及美国的其他几个州，7月份的时候停电停水了。所以，我们遇到了供水问题，而《纽约时报》是唯一报道此事的报纸。《纽约时报》直接引用了美国情报部门的消息，称这极有可能是伊朗在美国境内发起的网络攻击。此后这个报道再也没有了后续追踪。其他机构也没有转载那篇报道。这完全符合美国情报部门要求各报纸不要报道该事件的特征。现在在这个案例中发生的情况是，我们知道它……

英文原文

>> Yes. So this is where the real danger starts to come in. Once we see cyber attacks, we we need to understand that this summer in Minnesota and in a number of other states in the United States in July, the power and the water went out. So, we had a water problem and the New York Times was the only paper to cover this. And the New York Times quoted directly from US intelligence that said this was most likely Iran doing a cyber attack inside the United States. Story was never followed up again. That story was not repeated by other agencies. That has all the hallmarks of US intelligence telling the papers not to cover the story. Now what happened in the case is we know it's

你认为事情就是这样发生的吗？

英文原文

>> You think that's what happened?

嗯，我和美国情报界打过很长时间的交道。在90年代我有安全许可，但在过去的二三十年里，我和我们的情报界打交道的时间非常多。那篇文章中的引述、措辞，如果大家回去看那篇文章，你会看到那篇文章具体引用了特定人士的话，并指出它带有伊朗发动网络攻击的指纹。这很重要。这种措辞非常重要，斯蒂芬，因为这正是用来了解不同行为体——中国、俄罗斯、伊朗、朝鲜——的网络能力的非机密措辞。

英文原文

Well, I've spent a lot of time with US intelligence community. So, in the '9s, I had a clearance, but in the last 20, 30 years, I spent an enormous amount of time with our intelligence community. And the quotes, the language in that article, if people will go back to the article, you'll see that the article is spec quoting specific people and saying that it has Iran's fingerprints for cyber attack. Now, that's important. That phrasing is very important, Stephen, because that's exactly the phrasing, the unclassified phrasing that is used to understand the cyber capabilities of different actors, China, Russia, Iran, North Korea.

你认为明尼苏达州断水是因为伊朗发起了攻击吗？然后……

英文原文

>> Do you think the water went out in Minnesota because Iran didn't attack? And then

我认为极有可能是伊朗。是的，我认为是。我……我们无法完全确定。但我确实……如果我认为那不是一份可信的报告，我是不会提出来的。

英文原文

>> I think it's most likely Iran. Yes, I do think. I I we can't say for certain. But I do I I would not put it forward if I didn't think that was a credible report.

然后你认为美国政府可能和一些记者打了招呼，说：“听着，

英文原文

>> And then you think the US government might have had a word with some journalists and said, "Listen,

是的，撤下它，别谈论它。”

英文原文

>> yeah, take it off the table. Don't talk about it."

他们会这么做吗？

英文原文

>> Do they do that?

他们确实会。他们确实会。在1991年的海湾战争中，五角大楼曾做出很大努力与CNN、ABC以及新闻界的其他媒体合作，实际上去控制当时播报出来的部分新闻。而在通往2003年伊拉克战争的阶段，这种情况继续存在。有一次我在演播室现场——当时我在演播室现场，我不想让那位记者难堪，但当时我在CNN的演播室现场，他们把我空运到纽约，我当时坐的演播室就像你们团队的演播室一样。我刚才还在说你们团队比起他们有多棒。大家围坐在桌子旁，那位非常有名的记者让我和几位将军一起上节目，在开机录制之前她说：那么我们先来定一下基本规则，有什么是我们不该说的，有什么是我们不该问你们的，有什么是我们不该向公众谈论的。想象一下吧，斯蒂芬，想象一下，他们居然会让你告诉他们有哪些东西是他们不能向公众透露的。

英文原文

>> They do. They do. I Gulf War in 1991. There was a big effort by um the uh Pentagon to work with CNN, ABC, others in the news to in fact control some of the news that was coming out. And in the uh up to the 2003 Iraq war, um this continued and one of the times I was on the set, so I was on the set, I won't I don't want to embarrass the journalist, but I was on the set in CNN and they flew me into New York and I was literally on a set similar like your team. I was just talking about how great your team is compared to theirs and u sitting around the table and the reporter who's a famous reporter had me on with certain generals and before the cameras rolled she said so let's let's start with the ground rules what should we not say what should we not ask you what should we not talk about with the public just imagine that Stephen imagine that okay they would ask you to tell them what they can't share with the public.

他们去询问政府部门的人员——当时是布什政府——而记者的正常职责本应恰恰相反。事实上，CNN当年非常非常出名的事迹就是在19……或者说并不是靠这个起家，但让他们名声大噪的大事之一就是采访萨达姆·侯赛因，当时美国军方对此暴跳如雷。所以这就是我的意思，当你问我美国……情报……美国政府是否可能为了所谓的国家安全利益而要求媒体在某篇报道上降温，事实是我亲眼目睹过。

英文原文

>> They ask people from the administration who were this was the Bush administration where the normal role of the journalist is to do the opposite. In fact, CNN very very famously got started by interviewing Sodom Hussein in the 19 or not got started but one of the big things that they got a lot of prominence was interviewing Sodom Hussein when the US military went apoplelectic when they did. So this is what I mean by when you ask me would it be possible for the US for intelligence uh US government to ask media to uh for the good they would say for the good of national security uh to cool it on a story and the fact is I've seen it myself.

哇。接下来是什么？

英文原文

>> Wow. What's next?

国内动荡与军队介入推演

那么现在这就是我们担心的重大问题了。我不能告诉你这必然会发生。我不想那么说。我要告诉你的是这是一条路径，如果我们一路走到了这条路径的这个阶段——这只是一个假设——那么我们就必须担心在国会议员就职前几周真正有军队走上街头的情况。

英文原文

>> So now this is the big problem we worry about. I can't tell you this is certain to come. Would not want to do that. I'm telling you this is the pathway and if we get all the way down to this part of the pathway and that's an if then we have to worry about real troops in the streets when in the weeks just before the Congress would be seated.

也就是美国军队走上美国街头？

英文原文

>> So American troops in American streets

美国军队走上美国街头。

英文原文

>> American troops in American streets.

以前发生过这种情况吗？

英文原文

>> Has that happened before?

自50年代和60年代以来……而在50年代那完全是另外一种环境。所以，特朗普总统——只是为了说明为什么这完全是有可能的——在10月1日的《时代》周刊采访中被问到他是否会动用《叛乱法》，他明确表示他可能会，并且不会排除这种可能性。《叛乱法》将意味着动用美国军队，或者也可以是国民警卫队或预备役部队。不一定完全是现役军人，但这是在美国内陆城市动用军队，这是一个巨大的步骤。它极少被使用。而在我所解释的环境背景下，这是一个步骤，你可以看到，首先在……

不仅是一场战争在持续升级，而且我们现在有两场战争，随之而来的可能是……

英文原文

since the uh the 50s and the 60s when in the 50s this was a completely different environment. So, President Trump just to put why this is even credible at all on October 1st in Time magazine he was interviewed about would he declare the insurrection act and he said specifically that he might and he wouldn't take it off the table. Well, the insurrection act would be the use of US military or it could be the national guard or the reserves. It wouldn't have to be exactly the serving military uh but the use of the military in uh American uh cities and that is a huge step. it's rarely been used. Uh and that's a step which under the circumstances of the environment I am explaining you can see that first of all there would be an ongoing escalation in just one war but we now have two wars and with this could be

《叛乱法》与紧急状态

不断累积……并且在此刻不断累积，这将制造出一种实际上正在发生国际紧急状态的环境。所以《叛乱法》……这是什么意思？《叛乱法》。

英文原文

building

and

building

at

this

point

in

time

that

would

create

the

environment

in

which

there

is

an

actual

international

emergency

that's

occurring.

So

the

insurrection

act

is

What

does

that

mean?

The

insurrection

act.

《叛乱法》是指总统拥有紧急权力，可以在美国境内动用美军，或者如我所说的国民警卫队或预备役部队，来针对美国公民。所以通常我们有一项名为“治安官动员法”（Posse Comitatus）的政策，总统不能在我们自己的国界内部动用美军。斯蒂芬，原因显而易见，任何了解历史片刻的人都知道，威权国家向来动用本国军队来镇压本国人民。因此，作为世界领先民主国家的美国，竭尽全力不去走这条路。正因如此，当特朗普总统不排除这一选项时，才显得格外惊人。如果当时没有发生战争，人们可能会指望法院并认为：好吧，如果特朗普总统试图援引《叛乱法》，可能会被起诉到法院，而法院会反对该法案，它就不会生效。

英文原文

>> The

insurrection

act

is

where

the

president

has

emergency

powers

to

use

the

US

military

or

as

I

said

national

guard

or

the

reserves

within

the

borders

of

the

United

States

against

the

citizens

of

the

United

States.

So

normally

we

have

a

policy

called

P

commatatus

where

the

president

not

using

the

US

military

inside

of

our

own

borders.

for

obvious

reasons,

Stephen,

which

is

just

takes

a

a

moment

in

history

knows

that

authoritarian

states

have

routinely

used

their

military

to

suppress

their

own

population.

So,

the

United

States,

the

leading

democracy

in

the

world,

gone

way

out

of

its

way

to

not

uh

go

down

that

road.

That's

why

it's

particularly

striking

when

President

Trump

will

not

take

that

option

off

the

table.

And

if

there

was

not

a

war,

one

could

look

at

the

courts

and

one

could

think,

well,

if

President

Trump

tried

to

invoke

the

Insurrection

Act,

could

be

taken

to

court

and

the

courts

would

oppose

that

act

and

it

wouldn't

come

into

being.

伊朗局势升级与地面部队风险

伊朗接下来会发生什么？接下来发生的是，现在我们一路推进，来看看这里正在出现多大的危险，正在承受多大的经济压力。但也请注意，伊朗军方虽然仍有能力发动一些袭击，但他们很可能已经陷入相当严重的瘫痪状态。他们绝不是百分之百瘫痪。他们能够发动无人机袭击，可能发动导弹袭击，甚至可能发动网络攻击，但这并不意味着它还是今天在为期3天的战争、为期3天的空战之前所存在的那支军队。

英文原文

>> What

happens

next

in

in

Iran?

What

happens

next

is

now

we've

pushed

all

the

way

to

look

at

how

much

danger

there

is

that's

occurring

here,

how

much

economic

pressure

that's

occurring.

But

also

notice

that

the

Iranian

military,

although

it's

still

able

to

do

some

strikes,

they

probably

are

pretty

significantly

paralyzed.

They're

not

100%

paralyzed

by

any

stretch.

They're

able

to

launch

drone

strikes,

probably

missile

strikes,

probably

even

cyber

attacks,

but

that

doesn't

mean

it's

the

same

military

as

exists

today

before

the

3-day

war,

the

3-day

air

war.

会有美国地面部队进入伊朗。我认为有，是的。我认为这就是为什么海军陆战队正在调动，因为在我刚刚为你阐述的这种连带情境下，如果人们认为当特朗普总统谈到调动美国海军陆战队进入以进行有限地面行动时，这必然会是一场自杀式任务——现在来看，它可能会是自杀式任务，但这极不可能。更有可能的情况是像“即时雷电”行动那样展开，那就是尽可能多地瘫痪伊朗军队。伊朗军队仍将保有能够对我们进行相当严厉打击的残余力量。现在，你有了地面部队选项，可以进去试图对付那些残余力量的局部区域，而且你有一个真正的理由去这么做。斯蒂芬，一旦我们走上这条路，事实上我非常担心，一旦我们开始为期3天的轰炸行动，这个连锁进程将几乎无法阻挡。因为一旦你开始为期3天的轰炸行动，这将引发伊朗军队中能够向我们开火的剩余力量做出反应，而且他们将受到最大的驱使去向海湾国家、海湾国家的基础设施开火。一旦你一路走到这一步，现在你就陷入了真正的持久战中。现在你就陷入了一场我们无法真正脱身的持久战。而我们现在进入了一个这是真正紧急状态的世界。特朗普总统将能够开始宣布越来越多的紧急权力，因为这将是一场真正的紧急状态，而且它不会在圣诞节前结束。这八个星期是最危险的八个星期。但斯蒂芬，如果我们沿着这条轨迹一直走下去，这将导致毁灭性的2027年。

英文原文

>> There'll

be

US

ground

troops

in

Iran.

I

think

there's

Yes.

I

think

this

is

why

the

Marines

are

moving

because

under

the

circumstances

of

the

sequence

I've

just

laid

out

for

you.

If

people

think

that

um

when

President

Trump

is

talking

about

moving

US

Marines

into

uh

in

for

limited

ground

operations,

this

would

be

necessarily

a

suicide

mission.

Now,

it

could

be

a

suicide

mission,

but

this

is

very

unlikely.

much

more

likely

would

be

the

way

this

played

out

with

instant

thunder,

which

is

you

would

paralyze

as

much

as

you

could

of

the

Iranian

military.

The

Iranian

military

would

still

have

remnants

that

are

able

to

attack

us

pretty

severely.

Now,

you

have

the

ground

force

option

to

go

in

to

try

to

deal

with

localized

areas

of

those

remnants,

and

you

have

a

real

reason

to

do

it.

And

once

we

go

down

this

road,

Stephen,

in

fact,

I'm

quite

concerned

that

once

we

start

the

3-day

bombing

campaign,

this

sequence

is

going

to

be

almost

impossible

to

stop

because

once

you

start

the

3-day

bombing

campaign,

this

is

going

to

unleash

responses

by

the

uh

remaining

elements

of

the

Iran

military

that

can

fire

at

us

and

they

will

be

maximally

incentivized

to

fire

at

uh

the

Gulf.

states,

infrastructure

in

the

Gulf

States.

Once

you

go

all

the

way

down

this

this

far,

now

you're

in

the

true

forever

war.

Now

you're

in

the

forever

war

that

we

can't

really

get

out

of.

And

we

are

now

into

a

world

where

this

is

a

true

emergency.

President

Trump

will

be

able

to

start

declaring

more

and

more

emergency

powers

because

this

will

be

a

true

emergency

and

it

won't

be

over

by

Christmas.

These

eight

weeks

are

the

most

dangerous

eight

weeks.

But

if

we

go

all

the

way

through

this

trajectory,

Stephen,

this

will

lead

into

a

devastating

俄罗斯与第三次世界大战的定义

最后，

英文原文

>> And

lastly,

最后，

英文原文

>> lastly,

俄罗斯会发生什么？俄罗斯方面，我们看到，如果伦敦的国防大臣所担忧的事情真的发生了，如果那些网络攻击发生了，欧洲将面临巨大的压力直接对莫斯科进行报复。这并不是一种网络攻击……看，人们并没有真正经历过网络战争。他们听说过，读过相关的书，有关于它的科幻小说，但他们并没有经历过。所以他们……我认为许多人的想法是：好吧，断网30分钟，然后就马上恢复了，对吧？那么，有什么大不了的呢？这不是几十年来我们政府一直担忧的真正的网络攻击。真正的网络攻击会让公众——美国公众、欧洲公众——付出大得多的代价。而在这种情况下，那些公众将会要求报复。到那时，欧洲就会真正对莫斯科展开报复。斯蒂芬，你知道那意味着什么吗？你知道当欧洲那样做的时候，该用什么词来形容吗？第三次世界大战。那就是第三次世界大战的样子。几个月来，许多人一直在讨论：我们是否处于第三次世界大战中？答案是否定的。我们没有处于第三次世界大战中。世界各地以及世界主要地区确实正在发生战争。但第三次世界大战意味着，世界最大强国相互攻击对方的本土，并且他们的军队相互杀戮、直接交战。今天的情况并非如此。即便乌克兰战争发生了所有的升级，我们目前也绝未接近那种境地。但难道我们不是正在通过代理人这样做吗？换言之，英国昨天刚刚宣布他们将再向乌克兰提供100亿。想必那笔钱将被用于间接或直接杀伤俄罗斯人。那么，难道我们不是已经处于这些代理人战争之中了吗？冷战期间，从1947年到1989年，我们几乎每年都处于代理人战争中。我们在非洲身处代理人战争，我们在拉丁美洲身处代理人战争，我们在阿富汗身处战争。所以，还记得苏联进军阿富汗，我们派出了圣战者组织……

英文原文

>> what

happens

in

Russia?

Russia,

we

see

that

if

in

fact

what

the

defense

minister

in

London

is

worried

about

happens,

if

those

cyber

attacks

happen,

there

's

going

to

be

enormous

pressure

on

Europe

to

retaliate

directly

against

Moscow.

This

is

not

a

situation

where

cyber

attacks,

see,

people

haven't

really

experienced

cyber

warfare.

They've

heard

about

it.

They've

read

books

about

it.

There's

science

fiction

books

written

about

it,

but

they

haven't

experienced

it.

So,

what

they

what

I

think

many

people

think

is,

well,

the

internet

goes

out

for

30

minutes

and

it

just

pops

right

back

in,

right?

So,

what's

the

big

deal?

The

this

isn't

the

real

set

of

cyber

attacks

our

government

has

been

worrying

about

for

decades.

The

real

set

of

cyber

attacks

are

much,

much

more

costly

on

publics,

the

American

public,

the

European

public.

And

under

those

circumstances,

those

publiclix

are

going

to

demand

payback.

Then

that's

when

you

actually

have

Europe

retaliating

against

Moscow.

And

you

know

what

that

means?

You

know

what

that

word

the

word

is

for

that

when

Europe

does

that,

Stephen?

World

War

II.

That's

what

World

War

II

looks

like.

Many

people

for

months

have

been

discussing,

are

we

in

World

War

II?

The

answer

is

no.

We're

not

in

World

War

II.

We

have

war

happening

around

the

world

and

in

major

parts

of

the

world.

What

World

War

III

means,

when

the

world's

largest

powers

attack

each

other's

homelands

and

their

militaries

kill

each

other,

directly

engage

each

other.

That

is

not

the

situation

today.

And

we've

been

nowhere

near

that

even

with

all

of

the

escalations

that

have

happened

in

the

Ukraine

war.

But

aren't

we

doing

that

by

proxy?

I.e.

Britain

just

announced

yesterday

they're

going

to

give

another

10

billion

to

the

Ukraine.

Presumably

that

money

is

going

to

be

spent

on

killing

Russians

indirectly

or

directly.

So,

aren't

we

in

these

proxy

wars

already?

We

were

in

proxy

wars

during

the

Cold

War

almost

every

year

from

1947

until

We

were

in

proxy

wars

in

Africa.

We

were

in

proxy

wars

in

Latin

America.

We

were

in

uh

wars

in

Afghanistan.

So

remember

the

Soviets

went

into

Afghanistan.

We

sent

in

the

muja.

区别在于他们何时直接相互攻击。

英文原文

>> Difference

is

when

they

attack

each

other

directly.

没错。所以代理人战争……我们从1947年起的冷战期间以及冷战之后，几乎每年都面临过代理人战争。那不是世界大战。如果我们打算使用“我们处于第三次世界大战”这个表述，那么它应该与第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战有一些相似之处，并且真正的……不好意思

英文原文

>> Exactly.

So

proxy

wars

we

we

have

we

have

faced

proxy

wars

almost

every

year

during

the

cold

war

since

1947

and

after

the

cold

war.

That

is

not

a

world

war.

We're

going

to

use

the

phrase

we're

in

World

War

three.

then

it

should

have

some

semblance

to

World

War

I

and

World

War

II

and

what

the

real

pardon

me

那是有可能的

英文原文

>> that's

likely

三道防火墙措施

我希望斯蒂芬，我们在这里所做的一切能够阻止它发生。因此我认为，我们现在正开始面临的——我指的不是从现在起八周之后，我指的确实是从今天起往后——我们正在经历我们一生中最危险的八个星期。我认为，如果我们任由这种势头自行持续下去，它将在这一部分导致非常、非常糟糕的结果……

而且我们能做很多事。

英文原文

>> I

hope

everything

we're

doing

here

Stephen

will

prevent

it.

So

I

believe

that

what

we're

starting

down

now

I

don't

mean

eight

weeks

from

now

I

mean

literally

from

today

forward

we

are

living

through

the

eight

most

dangerous

weeks

in

our

lives.

I

believe

that

if

we

allow

this

momentum

to

carry

on

on

its

own

that

it's

going

to

lead

to

very

very

bad

outcomes

at

this

part

of

the

and

we

can

do

a

lot.

我们能做什么？

英文原文

>> What

can

we

do?

第一点是，目前仍处于跛脚鸭国会的每一位国会议员，以及刚刚当选国会议员的每一位成员，都可以表明一件事：在新一届国会就职之前，除非伊朗首先发动袭击，否则特朗普政府不得在伊朗升级局势。非常简单的声明。这是核心防火墙。核心防火墙就是对伊朗不升级局势。由目前现任的跛脚鸭国会中的每一位国会议员，以及刚刚赢得新一届国会选举的每一位议员共同呼吁特朗普政府，这是第一步。第二步是，既然我们实际上正处于计票季和确认季，每一位州长和每一位市长都应该呼吁特朗普总统，在他们的城市对所有联邦武装执法人员实施为期两个月的暂停行动，除非州长和市长主动提出要求。为期两个月的暂停令。这样我们就能排除暴力民粹主义失控的可能性。关键的火花——我们无法消除每一个火花，但我们可以消除那些关键的火花。

英文原文

>> Number

one

is

every

member

of

Congress

who's

still

in

the

lame

duck

Congress

now

and

who's

just

been

elected

to

Congress

can

say

one

thing.

No

escalation

by

the

by

the

Trump

administration

in

Iran

until

the

new

Congress

is

seated

unless

Iran

strikes

first.

Very

simple

declaration.

This

is

the

core

firebreak.

The

core

fire

break

is

no

escalation

on

Iran.

uh

the

Trump

administration

called

for

by

every

member

of

Congress

sitting

now

who's

in

the

lame

duck

Congress

and

who's

just

won

election

to

the

new

Congress

on

step

one.

Step

number

two

is

now

that

we're

actually

in

counting

season

and

certification

season,

there

should

be

every

governor

and

every

mayor

should

call

on

President

Trump

to

hold

a

two-month

moratorum

on

all

federally

armed

agents

in

their

cities

unless

the

governors

and

mayors

call

for

it.

A

two-month

moratorum.

So

we

take

off

the

table

the

possibility

of

violent

populism

getting

out

of

control.

The

key

sparks,

we

can't

take

every

spark

off,

but

we

can

take

the

key

sparks

off.

还有第三个吗？

英文原文

>> Is

there

a

third

one?

第三个极其重要，那就是在我们刚才所阐述的所有冲突中，美国处于其中间，伊朗处于其中间，俄罗斯处于其中间，伊朗非常核心，当然，我们现在还有沙特阿拉伯。我们应该让那些自称为调解人的核心国家站出来。那些国家是谁呢？巴基斯坦、卡塔尔，以及越来越多的印度。印度一直在幕后与俄罗斯以及乌克兰发挥着低调的作用。这三个扮演调解人角色的国家应该呼吁所有国家做一件事：不得伤害平民。不得伤害平民。国家不得直接针对民用基础设施或平民居住区。这就是这三条。如果我们做到这三点，我们所做的就是在建立防火墙……

英文原文

>> A

third

one

incredibly

important,

which

is

that

in

all

of

the

conflicts

we

have

just

laid

out,

we

have

the

United

States

in

the

middle

of

them.

We

have

Iran

in

the

middle

of

them.

We

have

Russia

in

the

middle

of

them.

We

have

Iran

very

central.

Of

course,

we

now

have

Saudi

Arabia.

We

should

have

the

core

countries

that

are

calling

themselves

mediators.

And

who

are

those

countries?

Pakistan,

Qatar,

and

increasingly

India.

India

has

been

playing

a

quiet

role

behind

the

scenes

with

Russia

and

uh

and

and

Ukraine.

Those

three

countries

that

have

played

this

role

as

mediator

should

call

on

all

of

the

countries

to

do

one

thing.

Hands

off

civilians.

Hands

off

civilians.

No

direct

targeting

of

civilian

infrastructure

or

civilian

residential

areas

by

states.

Those

are

the

three.

If

we

do

those

three

things,

what

we're

doing

is

we

are

establishing

fire

breaks

on

那些……那种……那种我们生命中最危险的八周的发展势头，而且我们……我们不必仅仅看着那八周就这么展开。斯蒂芬，

英文原文

those

that

that

momentum

of

the

eight

most

dangerous

weeks

in

our

lives

and

we

have

we

do

not

have

to

simply

watch

as

those

eight

weeks

unfold.

Stephen,

普通大众该怎么办？他们应该做些什么？你接受韦斯·斯特里廷（West Streeting）的建议吗？你认为我们应该囤积物资吗？

英文原文

>> what

about

the

general

public?

What

should

they

be

doing?

Do

you

take

the

advice

of

West

Streeting?

Do

you

think

we

should

be

stockpiling?

我个人没有那样做，因为……嗯，接下来会发生的是……呃，把它再拿出来展示一下。让我来向你展示真正会发生什么。现在我们处于第一天，假设第一天我们体内还有大量的水分。所以第一天我们用了一瓶水。

现在我们度过了第二天。停水断供的第二天，两瓶水我们都得用完，因为我们现在开始缺水了。现在到了第三天。这就是他叫我们做的。现在到了第三天，我们绝对把手里的瓶装水都耗尽了。这里存在一个根本性问题，斯蒂芬。

袭击可能还会再次发生。

英文原文

I'm

personally

not

doing

that

because

um

what

will

happen

is

uh

bring

that

back

up

for

a

moment.

Let

me

show

you

what's

really

going

to

happen.

Now

we're

at

day

one

and

let's

say

day

one

we

still

have

a

lot

of

uh

water

in

our

bodies.

So

day

one

we

use

one

bottle

of

water.

Now

we

go

through

day

two.

Day

two

of

the

outage,

we

have

to

go

through

both

bottles

of

water

because

we're

now

starting

to

run

out

of

water.

Now

we're

at

day

three.

That's

what

he's

told

us

to

do.

Now

we're

at

day

three

and

we're

definitely

going

through

our

bottles

of

water.

Here's

the

fundamental

problem,

Stephen.

The

attacks

can

happen

again.

你的意思是这么做毫无意义。

英文原文

>> You're

saying

there's

no

point.

我的意思是这么做没有用。而且我想说的是，每个人在第一天就会意识到，这阻止不了恐慌。这三天并不能真正争取到时间。政府能够争取时间的方法是设立那三个防火隔离带。而每一个普通人能做什么呢？他们可以给他们喜欢的政治领导人——无论那是谁——发电子邮件、发短信、打电话，告诉他们采纳这三道防火隔离带。这就是我们能够度过这一关、并有所作为的途径。否则，我们就是在任由事态摆布。

英文原文

>> What

I'm

saying

is

there's

no

point.

And

what

I'm

saying

is

everybody

will

come

to

that

realization

on

day

one

that

this

is

not

going

to

prevent

the

panic.

This

is

not

going

to

truly

buy

time

those

three

days.

The

way

the

governments

can

buy

time

are

those

three

fire

breaks.

And

what

can

every

ordinary

person

do?

They

can

email,

they

can

text,

and

they

can

call

their

favorite

political

leader,

whoever

that

is,

and

tell

them

to

adopt

those

three

fire

breaks.

That

is

how

we

can

navigate

this

journey

and

do

something

about

it.

Otherwise,

we're

just

letting

the

events

control

us.

我本来打算问你书里的那个问题，书里的问题基本上是，人们现在能做些什么来为接下来的五年做准备？但我看你刚才可能已经回答了。

英文原文

>> I

was

going

to

ask

you

the

question

in

the

book,

and

the

question

in

the

book

is

basically,

what

can

people

do

now

to

prepare

for

the

next

5

years?

But

I

think

you

might

have

just

answered

it.

我觉得我是回答了。

英文原文

>> I

think

I

did.

新书与媒体影响力

嗯，你现在出版了这本很棒的新书，《我们自己最大的敌人：暴力民粹主义时代的美国》（Our Own Worst Enemies: America in the Age of Violent Populism）。你是一位阅历极其丰富的人，拥有几十年又几十年最引人入胜的经验。嗯，任何对我们今天谈论的这些话题感兴趣的人，这都是关于该主题的权威著作。这本书以证据为基础。里面有大量的统计数据、图表和数据，但同时也……对历史有着如此深刻的阅读，就像你一贯展现的那样，罗伯特。

感谢你来到这里，也感谢你不断地为我指点迷津，因为你知道，我记得你第一次来的时候，我心里想，他在说什么升级陷阱，根本不可能；但它……彻底改变了我对世界上正在发生的事情的看法，它实际上帮助我理解了现实，以及关于战争、动机、自尊与人性，以及身处另一端的人类代价这种复杂而混乱的现实。你知道，我们总是谈论乌克兰和伊朗，但我认为也值得记住的是，那里有数以百万计、数千万又数千万的人，加起来大概有多少，1.3亿人，乌克兰有4000万人，伊朗有9000万人。

英文原文

>> Um,

you

have

this

wonderful

book

that's

out

now,

Our

Own

Worst

Enemies:

America

in

the

Age

of

Violent

Populism.

You're

someone

that's

so

incredibly

well

read,

decades

and

decades

and

decades

of

the

most

interesting

experience.

Um,

anybody

is

interested

in

these

subjects

that

we've

talked

about

today,

this

is

the

definitive

book

on

the

subject

matter.

It

is

evidence-based.

There's

lots

of

stats

and

graphs

and

figures

in

here,

but

also

um,

so

deeply

read

on

history

as

you

are,

Robert.

Thank

you

for

coming

here

and

thank

you

for

continually

keep

keeping

the

lights

on

for

me

cuz

you

know

I

remember

the

first

time

you

came

and

I

thought

what's

he

talking

about

escalation

trap

there's

no

chance

but

it's

um

completely

changed

my

mind

on

how

on

what's

going

on

in

the

world

and

it's

actually

helped

me

to

understand

reality

and

the

complex

messy

reality

of

war

and

incentives

and

ego

and

humans

and

the

human

cost

on

the

other

end

of

it

and

you

know

again

we

always

talk

about

Ukraine

and

Iran

but

I

think

it's

worth

also

remembering

that

there

millions,

tens

and

tens

and

tens

of

millions

of

people,

probably

what,

130

million

people

combined,

40

million

in

Ukraine,

90

million

in

Iran.

确实如此。

英文原文

>> Absolutely.

他们就处于这一切的核心。你知道，我坐在我们这间大办公室和演播室里感叹他们将要遭遇什么，这固然很容易。但是那里有非常真实的人们，在所有这些绝对的疯狂与混乱中努力生活着。我的心与他们同在。还有……斯蒂芬，我只是想说，正在发生的最重要的事情之一是，社交媒体不仅是一个问题，而且正如你在你的节目中所看到的，社交媒体可以带来巨大的帮助。在我上你节目的那些时候，我们确实勾勒出了一些非常黑暗的前景。而在节目播出后，因为有那么多观众，结果是这些问题被抛给了核心领导人。其中一个关键的事情是，就在我上次7月份来的时候，我们谈到我们当时正准备配合中央司令部发起一整套针对伊朗无人机网络的打击行动。这本会是一场灾难。这根本不可能改善这里的局势。

当时这种势头正在急剧积聚。这涉及……呃、呃……将军们、呃，军方的其他人、前军方人员；而我知道，因为在我们节目之后发生的事情……呃，情况改变了，突然之间，

现实情况、真正的问题浮出了水面，我认为那是我们没有走上那条黑暗道路的重要原因之一。

英文原文

>> That

are

right

in

the

heart

of

all

of

this.

And

you

know,

it's

all

well

and

good

me

sat

here

in

our

big

office

and

studio

lamenting

about

what's

going

to

happen

to

them.

But

there

are

very

real

people

that

are

living

there

trying

to

live

their

lives

amidst

all

of

this

absolute

craziness

and

chaos.

And

my

heart

goes

out

to

them.

And

and

Stephen,

I

just

want

to

say

one

of

the

most

important

things

that's

happening

is

social

media

is

not

just

a

problem,

but

you're

seeing

with

your

show,

social

media

can

be

a

tremendous

help.

On

the

times

I've

come

on

your

show,

we

have

really

laid

out

some

pretty

dark

scenarios.

And

after

the

show,

because

of

so

many

people,

what

happens

is

the

questions

come

to

the

key

leaders.

One

of

the

key

things

when

I

was

on

just

the

last

time

in

July,

we

talked

about

we

were

just

about

to

unleash

a

whole

series

of

attacks

with

SenCom

to

go

after

Iran's

drone

network.

This

would

have

been

a

disaster.

This

would

not

have

ended

in

improving

matters

here.

And

there

was

tremendous

momentum

building

for

that.

And

this

was

uh

uh

generals

uh

others

in

the

military

ex-military

and

I

know

because

what

happened

after

our

show

is

uh

changed

and

suddenly

what

was

the

reality

the

real

issues

came

to

the

four

and

that's

one

of

the

big

reasons

I

believe

we

didn't

go

down

that

dark

road.

是因为……

英文原文

>> It's

because

of

我认为是多亏了这个日记（节目）。我认为是因为这个日记（节目）。而且我认为不仅是因为日记（节目）。我认为是因为在社交媒体上，我们今天能够做到的、而在20年前我们进入伊拉克和阿富汗时无法做到的事情是，我们能够进行严肃、实质性的对话，在其中阐明实际的风险和后果，以及可能出现的最糟糕的真实情况。

英文原文

>> I

think

it's

because

of

the

diary.

I

think

it's

because

of

the

diary.

And

I

think

it's

not

just

the

diary.

I

think

it's

because

on

social

media,

what

we're

able

to

do

today

that

we

could

not

do

20

years

ago

when

we

went

into

Iraq

and

Afghanistan

is

we're

able

to

have

serious

substantive

conversations

where

we

lay

out

the

actual

risks

and

consequences,

the

true

worst

cases

that

could

come.

与权力层的接触

白宫有人联系过你吗？

英文原文

>> And

have

you

been

contacted

by

anybody

at

the

White

House?

自……以来给每一届白宫提供过建议。你在给这一届提供建议吗？

英文原文

>> Advised

every

White

House

since

Are

you

advising

this

one?

呃，我给每一届白宫都提供过建议，罗伯特。

英文原文

>> Uh,

I've

advised

every

White

House,

Robert.

自……以来我给每一届白宫都提供过建议……

英文原文

>> I've

advised

every

White

House

since

白宫联系过你吗？

英文原文

>> Have

you

been

contacted

by

the

White

House?

自9/11以来，我为每一届白宫都提供过建议。如果有……嗯，任何……任何联系，我已经被……放你一马。

英文原文

>> I've

advised

every

White

House

since

9/11.

And

if

there's

um

any

any

contact

I

have

been

let

you

off

the

hook.

我有的任何联系，我绝不可能、绝不可能……并且……并且让我简单地……让我整天呆在这儿。罗伯特，

英文原文

>> Any

contact

I

have,

I

could

never

ever

and

and

let

me

just

simply

let

me

just

here

all

day.

Robert,

白宫联系过你吗？你可以不用告诉我具体是谁，但自从你上了这个节目之后，他们有没有联系过你征求意见？

所以，我一直……呃，我曾为空军参谋长提供过咨询建议，并且自9/11以来我为每一届白宫都提供过咨询。我对此感到非常自豪。而事实是，节目……

英文原文

>> have

you

been

contacted

by

the

White

House?

You

can

you

don't

have

to

tell

me

who,

but

since

you've

come

on

this

show,

have

they

contacted

you

for

advice?

So,

I've

been

um

uh

I've

advised

uh

chief

of

staff

of

the

Air

Force

and

I've

advised

every

White

House

since

9/11.

I'm

incredibly

proud

of

that.

And

the

fact

of

the

matter

is

show

而你的节目，在其他节目之中，但是你的节目是一个领先的节目，它提高了对后果的关注度，随着我们的推进，这极其重要。

好吧，我不问你白宫的事了，但是有身居要职的人联系过你吗？

英文原文

>> and

your

show

among

other

shows,

but

your

show

is

a

leading

show

raises

the

profile

of

the

consequences

and

that

is

incredibly

important

as

we

go.

Okay,

I'm

not

going

to

ask

you

about

the

White

House,

but

have

people

contacted

you

in

positions

of

power?

是的。

英文原文

>> Yes.

好吧。因为我记得上次你上节目时，我记得我问过你，我说：“这……你会给这届白宫提什么建议？他们有没有……他们有没有联系你？”我们初次见面时你对我说没有。所以，后来有身居要职的人联系了你。

任何时候只要有身处要职的人来联系——那可以是在美国境内，也可以是在美国境外——对我来说都是极大的荣幸去……呃，尽我所能提供最好的建议，并且我将继续这样做，每一次……

英文原文

>> Okay.

Cuz

I

remember

last

time

you're

on

the

show,

I

remember

I

asked

you,

I

said,

"Has

this

what

would

you

advise

this

White

House?

Have

they

have

they

reached

out?"

And

you

said

no

to

me

when

we

first

met.

So,

subsequently,

you've

been

contacted

by

people

in

positions

of

power.

Anytime

somebody

in

a

position

of

power

reaches

out,

and

that

can

be

in

America

and

outside

of

America,

it

is

an

incredible

honor

for

me

to

uh

the

best

advice

I

possibly

can

and

I

will

continue

to

do

that

every

给白宫提建议。

英文原文

>> advising

the

White

House.

我只是在告诉你，斯蒂芬，我……呃、呃……我……不，我不是在告诉你我在做那件事。我是在告诉你，我……呃，当有权势的人伸出橄榄枝时，我感到无比荣幸；而且事实是……嗯，斯蒂芬，影响世界的最好方式并不总是在闭门之后。有时候确实是这样。我其实是想告诉你，当我们把实际的后果或者我们正在迈入的危险区域解释清楚时，会发生什么。

英文原文

>> I'm

just

telling

you,

Stephen,

that

I

um

um

I'm

No,

I'm

not

telling

you

I'm

doing

that.

I'm

telling

you

that

what

um

I

am

uh

incredibly

honored

when

people

of

power

reach

out

and

the

fact

of

the

matter

is

um

Stephen

that

the

best

way

to

the

best

way

the

best

way

to

influence

the

world

is

not

always

behind

closed

doors.

It

does

happen

sometimes.

I'm

really

trying

to

tell

you

that

what

happens

when

we

explain

the

actual

consequences

or

the

danger

zone

we're

moving

into.

我明白了。我明白了，罗伯特。这就是它引起关注的方式。

英文原文

>> I

get

it.

I

get

it,

Robert.

This

is

how

it

raises.

我的意思是，所以你是在为美国掌权的人提供建议吗？

英文原文

>> I'm

saying

so

are

you

advising

people

in

power

in

the

United

States?

我在建……我只是告诉你，有当权者联系过我。这是莫大的荣幸，我感到非常高兴。

英文原文

>> I'm

advis

I'm

just

telling

you

people

in

power

have

contacted

me.

It's

been

a

tremendous

honor

and

I'm

very

glad.

我很高兴、我很高兴、我很高兴他们……我很高兴他们在听。

英文原文

>> I'm

glad

I'm

glad

I'm

glad

they're

I'm

glad

they're

listening.

他们在听吗？

英文原文

>> Are

they

listening?

这些掌权者，斯蒂芬……嗯，在某个时候、在某个时候、在某个时候、在某个时候，我们将能够回顾这一切，并且能够……呃，去说我们是如何挺过这一时期的，我们会有那些对话。但我们打算做这件事的方式、我们打算做的方式是……

英文原文

>> These

people

in

power

Steven

um

At

some

at

some

point

at

some

point

at

some

point

at

some

point

we're

going

to

be

able

to

look

back

on

this

and

be

able

to

um

say

how

did

we

get

through

this

period

of

time

and

we're

going

to

have

those

conversations.

But

the

way

we're

going

to

way

we're

going

to

do

this

is

听着、听着……

英文原文

>> listen

listen

我在问他们有在听吗？那些你……我不是在问他们是谁、他们在向你咨询什么。我是在问他们在听吗？

我是说……所以那些……嗯……联系过我的掌权者确实相信……嗯，确实在听，无论他们是在美国还是在世界各地；而且我确实相信……呃，而且我只是想指出，这里的一个大问题是以有力的方式去传达我们正在冒的真正风险。

英文原文

>> I'm

asking

are

they

listening?

Are

the

people

you

I'm

not

asking

who

they

are

what

they're

asking

you

about.

I'm

saying

are

they

listening?

I'm

tell

so

the

people

in

power

who

have

um

contacted

me

do

believe

um

are

listening

whether

they're

in

the

United

States

or

around

the

world

and

I

do

believe

that

u

and

I

just

want

to

point

out

that

one

of

the

big

issues

here

is

communicating

the

true

risks

that

we're

running

in

powerful

ways.

罗伯特，谢谢你。

英文原文

>> Robert,

thank

you.

谢谢你。感谢你为我们这么多人指明了方向，并且带来……把复杂的问题简单化。这一切都太复杂了，因为有那么多的说辞、宣传等等。所以，能与拥有许多不同视角、拥有像你这样丰富经验的许多不同的人坐在一起，把事情剖析得清清楚楚，真是太好了……

英文原文

>> Thank

you.

Thank

you

for

turning

the

lights

on

for

so

many

of

us

and

bringing

and

simplifying

complexity.

It's

all

so

complex

cuz

there's

so

much

rhetoric

and

propaganda

and

stuff.

So,

it's

nice

to

sit

with

lots

of

different

people

that

have

lots

of

different

perspectives

and

have

the

wealth

of

experience

that

you

have

and

have

it

laid

out

……对我来说是我能真正理解的方式。所以但愿我们能避免这种升级。我相信，如果我们真能避免它，这就是途径。我是一个乐观主义者，这也是为什么我很兴奋能上你的节目。不是因为我想看到那种末日恶性循环，而是因为我想看到我们走向一个更美好的世界。

英文原文

to me that I can really comprehend. So hopefully we avoid this escalation. I believe this is how if we're going to avoid it. I'm an optimist and that's why I'm excited to be on your show. Not because I want to see the doom loop, but because I want to see us come to a better world.

我跟你说，我很高兴白宫主动联系了。谢谢你，罗伯特。我已经尽力了。[笑声]

英文原文

>> I tell you, I'm glad the White House reached out. Thank you, Robert. I've done that. [laughter]

你尽力了。你做得很棒。

英文原文

>> You tried. You're doing good.

YouTube 有个疯狂的新算法，他们能根据 AI 以及你所有的观看行为，准确知道你接下来想看什么视频。而且这个算法显示，这个视频对你来说是最完美的视频。对现在正在观看的每个人来说都是不同的。来看看这个视频吧，我敢打赌你可能会喜欢它的。

英文原文

>> YouTube have this new crazy algorithm where they know exactly what video you would like to watch next based on AI and all of your viewing behavior. And the algorithm says that this video is the perfect video for you. It's different for everybody looking right now. Check this video out and I bet you you might love it.