引言
大家好,我是挪威主权财富基金(Norges Bank Investment Management)的CEO Nicolai Tangen,今天我非常高兴能邀请到Brian Moynihan。Brian是美国银行(Bank of America)的董事长兼CEO,美国银行是全球最大的金融机构之一,我们持有该公司1.5%的股份。Brian已经领导美国银行15年,带领它走出了金融危机(Financial Crisis)的阴影,并将其转型为一家数字强企。Brian,很高兴您能来。很高兴来到这里,感谢您对我们公司的支持,期待今天与您进行一次愉快的交流。
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Hi everybody. I'm Nicolola Tangian, the CEO of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund and today I'm thrilled to have Brian Moyahan with us. Brian is the chairman and CEO of Bank of America, one of the world's largest financial institutions and we own 1 and a half% of this great company. Brian has led the bank for 15 years, steering it through the aftermath of the financial crisis and transformed it into a digital powerhouse. So Brian, wonderful to have you here. It's great to be here and uh thank you for your support to our company and uh look forward to a great session with you today.
全球经济展望与美国政策转变
Brian,您身居全球最大银行之一的领导位置,您认为世界正在发生什么?我认为世界各地不同领域发生的事情略有分歧,但总的来说,我认为目前的主要驱动力是美国在经济政策上的转变,撇开地缘政治因素不谈,仅从经济角度来看,美国正在发生重大变化。美国已经改变了四项政策:贸易关税政策、移民政策(这更多是美国国内政策)、税收预算政策,以及放松管制。您可以看到这些政策正在美国发挥作用,显然,作为全球最大的经济体和大多数国家最大的贸易伙伴,随着新一届特朗普政府的政策调整,您会看到这些变化对全球产生影响。
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>> Wonderful. Brian, you sit on the top of uh one of the world's largest banks. What's happening in the world? Well, I think there's a little bit of bifurcation between what's happening in you know various segments of the world but you can add it all up to the world but I think largely what's being driven now is the United States change in this policy towards uh from an economic basis leave aside a geopolitical basis but an economic basis a major change going on is that US has changed to uh with respect to four policies trade tariff type policies immigration policies this is more domestic in the US but uh the taxation budget policy um and then deregulation and you're seeing that play out in the US and obviously as the world's largest economy and the biggest trading partner with most countries you're seeing that impact around the world as we go through that uh change in in the set of policies with the new administ new Trump administration.
那么,当您试图了解世界走向时,您会关注哪些指标呢?当您环顾世界时,您会关注许多指标,但我们也会特别关注美国。我们有一个优秀的调研团队,贵公司和其他公司都从中受益。我们每年在研究上投入5亿美元,这是一笔巨大的投资。他们预测今年全球经济增长率略低于3%。他们认为全球经济正在放缓,这基于我们对贸易和关税政策的所有讨论。但当我们看美国时,我们不仅关注研究团队告诉我们的信息(他们预测美国经济在2025年第四季度对比2024年将增长1%,没有衰退,美联储(Federal Reserve)也不会降息),我们还会关注我们实际的客户数据。如果您查看我们的客户数据,我们对7000万美国家庭的美国消费者有深入了解,我们作为美国最大的小企业贷款机构和中型市场贷款机构,也对这些企业有深入了解。这些数据基本上告诉我们一些有趣的事情,然后我们还会关注更广泛的指标。我还会关注美国新申请失业救济人数和持续申请失业救济人数,因为坦率地说,这是企业实际行动而非言语的领先指标。
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>> So when you um when you uh try to get a feel for where the world is moving what are the indicators you are looking at? So when you look around the world you look at a lot of indicators but again bring our our additional perspective on the US. We have a great research team which your firm and others benefit by. That's a major investment a half billion dollars a year annual investment in research and and they have the world growing a little bit less than 3% for the next uh for for this year. uh they have the world um in terms of slowing down a little bit uh based on all the discussions uh we could have about trade and tariff policy but when you look at the US what we look at is not only what that research team tells us which the US will grow at 1% fourth quarter of 25 versus 24 to give you a sense annualized you know what they give us that kind of projection no recession Fed's not going to cut rates then we look at our actual customer data and if you look at our customer data we have great insight in the American consumer or 70 million American households we do business with we have great insight as largest small business lender and middle market lender in the US and those basically are telling you uh interesting things that's we look at then as broader indicators I look at uh and we can go into what they're telling us but in broader indicators I also look in the US importantly about new claims for unemployment continuing claims for unemployment because frankly that's a leading indicator of what businesses are really doing versus what they're saying
您有什么私人的“秘密指标”是您特别关注而其他人没有真正关注的吗?嗯,如果您看看美国消费者,公开讨论的是消费者信心指数在4月2日解放日后下降,然后又回升,来来回回。但我们看到的是活动没有中断,也没有改变。那么,我们谈论的是什么呢?美国银行的7000万消费者今年将从他们的账户中支出约4.5万亿美元进入经济体。截至目前,今年已接近2万亿美元,因为我们已经快过半了。如果您看这个数字,它比2024年上半年增长了约4.5%到5%。如果您看6月份,增长了4%到4.5%。当您看到这么多钱流入经济体时,这意味着美国消费者正在大量参与。当您查看他们的账户余额时,它们保持稳定或增长,波动不大,核心消费者保持稳定,而高端消费者的钱则流入了货币市场基金和其他赚取利息的工具,但他们拥有的现金量实际上处于历史新高。所以他们的状况相当不错。失业率是4.2%左右。你知道,失业的可能性相对较低。所以把这些放在一边,然后您必须将其与消费者所说的感受进行权衡,他们由于所有正在发生的变化和活动而感到消极,这意味着什么呢?这意味着关税战,意味着移民问题,意味着他们认为经济正在放缓。所以我们看到的是美国消费者表现相当不错,我们也会关注中小型企业。
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>> have you any private kind of secret indicators that you are that you are particularly keen on that nobody else is really looking at? >> Well, if you look at the American consumer, the the uh discussion of public domain was as consumer confidence factors, you know, went down after a liberation day, April 2nd, and went back up all the back and forth. What we did saw was no break in no change in activity. So, how what are we talking about? the the Bank of America consumers, 70 million of them, will send out of their accounts about four and a half trillion dollars this year into the economy. Year to date, it's almost two trillion because we're almost halfway through the year. Um, if you look at that, it's up about 4 and a half to 5% of the first part of 25 versus the p first part of 24. If you look at the month of June, four four and a half%. When you look at that amount of money going the economy, that means the American consumer is participating heavily. When you look at their their balances and their accounts, stable to growing, bouncing around, not you know the core consumer kind of stable in the higherend consumer money went into the money market funds and other instruments are earning interest, but the amount of cash they have is actually at record highs. And so they're in pretty good shape. Unemployment's 4.2% or whatever. You know, the prospects for being unemployed are relatively low. So you put that aside and then you have to balance that against what consumers are saying they're feeling which is negative due to all the change and all the activity going on meaning what's that mean that means you know the tariff war that means immigration that means they're reading that the economy is slowing down and so what we see is US consumers doing pretty well we look at small mediumsize businesses
Brian,考虑到目前的不确定性,您对消费者表现如此出色感到惊讶吗?不,实际上没有。Nicola,人们忽略的一点是,美国的失业率是4.1%,这比充分就业水平低100个基点。其次,工资增长实际上在一段时间内总体上超过了通货膨胀。通货膨胀先来,然后工资增长赶上,现在它们运行得更加同步。另外,请记住,美国消费者受益于美国的石油独立性,这使得我们在油价波动时能够有一个更平衡的视角。当油价下跌时,这对美国消费者来说是一个巨大的好处,因为这让他们有更多的钱可以花在其他方面。所以,我对此并不感到惊讶。消费者信贷非常强劲。我一点也不惊讶。我能理解为什么人们会感到惊讶。那是因为他们正在阅读调查数据,而那只是消费者在沙发上告诉您他们的感受。我总是说,看他们做了什么,而不是他们说了什么感受。
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>> Brian are you surprised that the consumer is doing so well given given the insert day >> no not actually it it and it comes down to Nicola the the thing people miss is that the unemployment employment level is 4.1 in the US which is 100 basis points below full employment number one and number two wage growth is actually exceeding inflation in the aggregate across a period of time now it es and flows inflation came first and wage growth cut up to it and now they're running more in sync and then the remember the US consumer is a beneficiary of America's oil independence and you and that allows us to have a more balanced uh view when uh oil oil prices move around but as oil prices came down. That's a big benefit to the American consumer because that that just gives them more money to spend on something else. So, I'm not surprised by it. Uh consumer uh credit is very strong. I'm not surprised by it at all. I can understand why the people are surprised by it. And that's because they're reading survey data and that's what a consumer is on the couch. That's what they're telling you how they feel. It's I always say look at what they're doing, not what they say they're feeling.
为什么他们的行为与感受不同?因为他们有钱,有工作,而且在美国,他们很擅长消费。这并不意味着他们会停止消费。这只是意味着,今年早些时候,当所有人都说美国消费者被所有这些事情搞垮了,一年半前,当美国消费者据称被所有这些事情搞垮了,但它从未发生。他们只是不断地消费。2021年的刺激性支付,人们以为他们会把这些钱花光。他们并没有。账户余额持续增长,基本上略有下降,然后又开始增长。所以这一切都归结于此,你知道,美国经济状况尚可。它正在放缓。这就是诀窍。诀窍在于平衡所有这些不确定性对商业社区的影响,商业社区会更快地受到高利率的冲击,特别是中小型企业。而且他们也对游戏规则感到困惑,他们需要理清税收政策、贸易政策和某些行业的移民政策。他们需要这些工人。如果这些问题得不到解决,那么我可以看到人们开始真正调整他们的成本基础,这将影响美国消费者,因为他们会更担心没有工作。
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>> Why are they doing things differently than what they feel? >> Because they have money and they're employed and and you know they're pretty good at spending in America. And so that doesn't mean that won't stop. It just means that you know earlier this year when everybody said American consumer was out of you know was was being broken by all this stuff a year and a half ago when American consumer was supposedly being broken by all this stuff. It never happened. They just kept spending and spending and spending. They were the stimulus payments that came through in 2021. People thought they were going to spend those down. They really didn't. The balancing accounts kept going. Uh uh basically came down a little bit and then started growing again. And so it all comes down to that, you know, the American economy is in okay shape. It's slowing down. And this is the trick. The trick will be balancing the impact of all this uncertainty around the business community, which gets hit by higher rates faster, especially small medium-sized businesses. And also is confused about what the rules of the game are that they need straightening out tax policy and uh you know, trade policy and and immigration for those in certain industries. They need those workers. And if that doesn't clear up, then I could see people starting to actually really adjust their cost basis and that would affect the American consumer because they'd be wor more worried about not having a job.
具有某种政治倾向的人比具有另一种政治倾向的人消费更多吗?我的意思是,他们对生活的感觉更好吗?我们真的很难从我们的消费数据中看出这一点,因为我们没有这些数据。但如果您更广泛地查看调查,您会发现密歇根大学调查和其他调查显示,人们对通货膨胀的未来路径和经济的未来路径的看法按党派 affiliation 划分。但由于美国大体上是50/50的划分,所以这些平均下来就相互抵消了。所以我认为人们过分强调这一点,因为他们试图表达一个政治观点。
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>> Are people with one political affiliation spending more than the people with the other political affiliation? I mean, are they feeling better about life? It >> we don't really see that's a little hard for us to tell in our our spending because we don't have that data for our people. But if you look at it more broadly in the surveys, you see that people who uh in the Michigan survey you can see in other surveys, you can see it's split by party affiliation in terms of their views of the future path of inflation, the future path the economy, but it averages all out because America's a 50/50 split by and large. It kind of average each other out. So people I think overplay that because they're trying to make a political point.
但我总是说,不要看人们说他们要做什么。要看他们实际要做什么。无论是个人信用,他们会还款吗?不是他们说会还款,而是他们是否还款。对于消费,不是他们说要消费还是不消费,而是他们实际做了什么。我认为消费者已经调整了他们的消费,但情况相当不错。现在,如果您看中小型企业,美联储的利率结构确实、确实造成了压力,人们对此的报道也越来越多,但人们花了一段时间才理解这一点,因为大公司可以进入市场,不受影响。平坦的利率曲线允许他们延长期限,实际上可以获得更长期的资金。问题是,一个经营着5000万、1亿、2亿美元营收公司的人,他们是依靠信用额度借款的,而这个基准利率从25个基点上升到50个基点,再到5%,现在又降到4%左右。这种变化对支付的利率来说是一个巨大的变化,这减缓了企业做出决策的速度,您可以看到他们没有像疫情前那样使用信用额度,为什么不呢?经济增长得足够好,你知道,市场上有需求满足的机会,那是因为他们担心,他们没有购买设备,他们没有做出改变,这就是我们与美国政府沟通时所指出的,我们说你们真的需要解决这个问题,这样中小型企业才会变得更积极,随着美联储降低利率结构,他们会感觉更好。
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>> But I always say don't don't look at what people say they're going to do. Look at what they're actually going to do. Whether it's a person on credit, are they going to pay it? It's not whether they say they're going to pay, it's whe and a person on spending, it's not whether say they're going to spend or not, it's what they're doing. And I think the consumers adjusted their spending around, but it's pretty good. Now, if you go to small medium-sized businesses, this is where the Fed's rate structure really, really pinches and people are writing more about that, but it took a while for people to understand that because large companies go to the markets and are not affected. a flat rate curve allows them to go out the curve and actually secure longerterm funds. The problem is a a person who is running a a $50 million$100 million, $200 million revenue company, they're borrowing on lines of credit and that rate base rate went from, you know, 25 basis points to 50 basis points up to five and now down to fourish. That change is a huge change in the rate paid and that slowed the the businesses down in terms of making decisions and you can see it that they aren't using the lines of credit at the level they were pre-pandemic and sort of why not the economy is growing well enough you know the opportunity for demand uh fulfillment's out there and it's because they're worried they aren't buying the piece of equipment they're not making the change and that's what we site when we talk to the administration in the United States and say you really need to settle this in so that group of small mediumsize businesses will get more aggressive and as the Fed brings rate structure down they'll feel better.
美国消费者与企业现状
您认为利率水平是企业客户最主要的问题,还是其他类型的不确定性?嗯,我们过去一年对小企业客户的调查显示了不同的因素。首先是利率和通货膨胀,因为这是他们最关心的问题,但后来又转回了工人问题。我之所以说“转回工人问题”,是因为几年前美国出现了“大辞职潮”(Great Resignation)。他们说的是无法获得足够胜任工作的员工,而这种问题又因他们听到的许多关于通货膨胀影响的讨论而加剧。如果您从事建筑业及其所有相关领域,比如您是一家水泥公司、一家送货公司,或者实际建造建筑物的建筑公司,移民政策的影响导致人们无法上班。如果您从事酒店、休闲农业,它正在影响您。所以我认为,在广泛的员工群体中,这就是为什么您会听到政府说我们必须解决这个问题,以确保人们知道他们将拥有工人来取得成功,尤其是在农业、旅游、娱乐和其他类型的行业中。因为并不是说活动本身影响了他们很多人,而是对活动可能影响他们的担忧导致工人不来。所以他们从只关心通货膨胀、只关心利率,变成了“等等,我再次找不到工人了,我能找到这些工人吗?”所以一切都在他们脑海中,但对其中一些话题的不确定性对他们来说至关重要。
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>> Is it the uh the level of rates which is the main concern for for the business clients or is it other types of uncertainty you think? >> Well, if our survey of of small business customers over the last year has shown different elements. First it was rates and inflation because that was preoccupied but um and then it shifted back to workers. Why I say back to workers it was at that during the great resignation a couple years ago in United States and what they're saying is the inability to get enough employees that can do the jobs that they have that is being exacerbated uh by a lot of discussion you hear from them about the impact of inflation and if you're in construction and all its related parts you're a cement company you're a delivery company you're construction actually building the buildings the impact of the immigration policy is causing people not to show up if you're in the hotel and leisure farming, it's impacting you and and so I think in the broad-based employees, that's why you're hearing the administration saying we got to sort this out to make sure people know they're going to have the workers to be successful and and being agriculture and travel and entertainment and other types of industries because it's not that the activity is affecting a lot of them. It's the worry about the activity that's going to affect them that causes the workers not to come. So they went from being all about inflation, all about rates to wait, I can't get the workers again and can I get those workers. So everything everything's on their mind, but uncertainty about some of these topics is critical to them.
供应链中断呢?这对您的客户来说是一个主要话题吗?是的,是的。我的意思是,我将其更多地归类为关税问题。归根结底,我们在疫情期间都学到了一件事,那就是全球供应链变得极其低效。问题是它们缺乏足够的韧性。因此,随着这些关税的实施,人们会看到,如果我将商品运到美国,我必须能够将我的供应链转移到那些可能更受美国青睐的贸易伙伴国。短期内真正的问题是,如果我从某些国家获取商品,你知道,如果我在一个关税为10-15%的国家生产同样的商品,而另一个国家的关税是30-40%。你知道,如果我将商品供应给同一家商店销售,猜猜看?谁会以更低的价格出售,除非我承担关税。所以,你知道,回到解放日,这就是给系统带来冲击的原因,市场大幅下跌,而当他们明确表示将达成协议并试图减轻关税的总体规模时,市场反应是回升的。但公司正在考虑两件事:供应链一是关税结构、贸易结构、非关税壁垒结构,其次是,你知道,关于供应链能力的实际情况,如果某个非常具体的地方发生了一些事情,它不会影响到他们。
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>> What about supply chain disruptions? Is that a is that a main topic for your clients? >> Yeah, it it is. I mean I I I fit that more in a tariff and look at the end of the day, we all learned something during co which is the the world's supply chains became extremely inefficient. The problem was they weren't extremely resilient. And so as these tariffs go on, people are seeing sort of I've got to be able to move my supply chain to places where uh maybe more favored as a trading partner to America if I'm bringing my goods into America. The real short-term thing is if I'm getting my goods from certain countries, you know, if I have the same good manufactured in a country with tariffs of 10 15% versus 30 40%. You know, and I'm going to supply to the same store to sell, guess what? who who's going to get sold the lower price unless I just eat the tariffs. So that that you know going back to liberation day that's what sent the shock to the system the market went way down the reaction to it as it became clear that they were going to get deals done and try to mitigate the overall size of the tariff that happened but the companies have two two things they're thinking about supply chain one is what is the tariff architecture trade architecture non-tariff barrier architecture and then secondly you know what is the plain facts about the ability to have a supply chain that if something happens in a narrow in a pl a very specific place it doesn't affect them
我们在疫情期间学到了这一点,你知道,外科口罩、某些医疗设备、某些配方,撇开高科技和芯片等一切不谈,这些都是基本物品,因为某个特定地区正在经历压力,你无法将其运出该国,那不是韧性。我认为许多供应链经理都说:“等等,等等,你告诉我我根本买不到这个东西?”他们说:“是的。”他们说:“那好,解决这个问题。”这意味着,你知道,越南、墨西哥等国家将受益于供应链的“分散”。
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>> that that we learned in co you know surgical masks uh certain types of medical equipment certain types of formulararies leave aside the high-tech and ships and chips and everything this is just basic stuff you couldn't get it out of the country uh because of a particular area was going through a stress that's not resiliency and I think a lot of supply chain managers said whoa whoa whoa you're telling me I can't get this at any price and they're saying yes they're saying well fix that and that means you know the Vietnams and others Mexicos and others will benefit by the supply chain sort of spreading out.
银行业务与科技转型:分支机构与AI应用
稍微换个话题,许多银行正在关闭分支机构。您似乎仍然非常相信您的分支机构。您拥有近4000家分支机构。为什么您对分支机构的看法与其他许多银行不同呢?我们相信“高接触、高科技”(high touch, high tech),我们追随客户,客户向我们表明他们喜欢所有这些方式,对吗?所以无论是他们喜欢电话渠道、分支机构渠道,还是移动渠道和在线渠道,他们喜欢所有不同的方式与公司互动。如果您看看随着时间的推移发生了什么,我们已经从6000家分支机构减少到今天的3700-3800家分支机构。我们在新城市增加了分支机构。嗯,我们仍然在减少。我们的消费业务员工从10万人减少到今天的约6万人。由于数字化和客户行为的变化,这是一个巨大的减少。但在今天和明天之间,你知道,24小时内,会有35万到50万人来到我们的分支机构。
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>> Moving topic a bit, many banks are closing their branches. You are still seem to be a great believer in your branches. You got close to 4,000 of them. Um why why do you have a different view on branches than many other banks? >> Well, we believe in high touch high-tech and we follow the customer and the customer you shows us they like to do all the above, right? And so whether they like the phone channel, they like the branch channel, they like the uh mobile channel and online channel, they like all the different ways to interface the company. And if you look at uh what's happened over time, we've gone from 6,000 branches to 37 3,800 branches today. We've added branches in new cities. Well, we still have gone down. We've gone from 100,000 people working in our consumer business to about 60,000 today. That's a massive reduction due to the digitization, customer behavior change. But between the next today and tomorrow, you know, 24-h hour period, a half, million, 350,000 people will come down into our branches.
这些人是谁?他们主要是老年人吗?每个人都说,您可能会说是老年群体等等。但这根本不是真的。他们是各种各样的人。他们是小企业主,想要开立账户。他们是来寻求投资建议的人。最大的转变是许多日常活动。大约30年前,分支机构的策略基本上是消除可变性,使其成为一种机器操作,并使其非常注重流程。我们做到了这一点,这使得它们从30年前到20年前变得高效,然后我们说等等,许多这些交易实际上可以由客户自己完成,比如存支票,你知道,这可以通过移动设备完成,也可以通过ATM完成,突然之间,我们能够将活动转移出去。那么Nicola,剩下的是什么呢?真正重要的是今天这6万名员工。我们现在的关系处理能力可能是当时的2倍,因为人们倾向于来处理更困难的问题。我的母亲去世了。我正在努力弄清楚如何获得授权书,以便我能处理她的账户。我需要抵押贷款。我刚拿到第一笔奖金,我是一个年轻人。我想弄清楚如何投资。你知道,我们有2500名我们称之为财务助理(Financial Associates)的员工在分支机构,他们会帮助客户从基础知识开始。所以分支机构的复杂性已经改变,变得更加注重关系。这就是为什么访问时间,你知道,更容易安排和理解,而不是人们进来做日常交易。这个原则适用于所有年龄段的人群。
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>> And who and who are these people? Are they mainly older people or >> it all everybody says it's a you would say it's older cohorts and stuff. It's just not true. It's it's a whole bunch of people. It's small it's entrepreneurs who want to open their accounts. It's people coming in from investment advice. Largely what's big transformation is a lot of the routine activity. The strategy of branches uh starting 30 years ago was to basically take variability out to make it you know a machine operation and make it very very processoriented and and so we did that that made them efficient say from 30 years ago to 20 years ago to then we said wait a second a lot of these transactions can actually be done by the customer themselves uh depositing a check um and you know that can be done through a mobile device it can be done through the ATM and suddenly We're able to move activity out. What that then left behind is what Nikolai is what really is important which is in those 60,000 people today. We have probably twice the relationship capacity we did back then because people tend to come in for more difficult issues. My mother died. I'm trying to figure out how to get the power of attorney so I can work with accounts. I need a mortgage loan. Uh I'm I'm just got my first bonus and I'm a younger person. I want to uh figure out how to invest it. And you know we have 2500 uh FAS we call them financial associates in the branches that will help them start with mail ledge. Uh the so the the complexity of the branches have changed to be much more relationship oriented. That's why the visit time is you know much more scheduleable and understandable as opposed to people coming in and doing routine transactions. That principle applies to all cohorts of age.
你知道,没有区别。如果我母亲去世了,我60岁,或者我母亲去世了,我30岁,我必须弄清楚如何处理她的账户,你知道,所以在这些类型的问题上没有那么大的区别。
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>> You know there's no no difference. If I if I'm my mother died and I'm 60 or my mother died and I'm 30, the issues I got to figure out how to handle her accounts, you know, so there there's not as much distinction on those types of issues.
Brian,您在银行监管方面一直非常直言不讳。我们喜欢那些直言不讳表达自己真正信仰的人。那么,请告诉我们您对当今银行监管的看法是什么?如果您今天来看,这是一个经典的案例,钟摆摆过了头。而且它也变得相互矛盾。所以如果您回到金融危机时期,美国的Dodd-Frank(Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act: 多德-弗兰克华尔街改革和消费者保护法案),全球范围内的Basel III(Basel III: 巴塞尔协议III)实施,所有这些措施基本上都是为了解决他们认为金融危机后不足的核心问题。人们忘记的一个核心不足之处是,许多导致金融危机压力的公司并不在银行体系内,也没有受到监管。首先,您将这些公司纳入监管,然后是资本、流动性以及这些公司的活动范围,让他们退出私募股权和更多主要活动,更多地转向支持像您这样的客户,让你们进行投资,让私募股权公司进行投资,不要与他们竞争。所以活动范围,然后它沿着这条路走下去,模型以及如何构建模型等等。但在那个时间框架内,特别是在美国,规则不断变化,回到我们认为银行7-8%的资本充足率在Dodd-Frank之后是足够的,你知道,那仍然比人们当时的水平增加了25-30%,人们说那已经足够了,我们现在从7-8%足够变成了10-11%足够,而在此期间,行业的风险实际上坦率地说,相对而言可能已经下降了。
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>> Brian, you've been pretty vocal uh when it comes to regulation of banks. Um and we love people who are vocal about uh you know what they really believe in. So tell us what do you uh what is your take on bank regulations today? >> If you look at it today, the it's a classic case of the pendum swung past the point. um and you and also became sort of unreconcilable with each other. So if you go back to the financial crisis, DoddFrank in the United States, Basel 3 implementation on a global basis, all these things were meant to basically look at the core things that they thought were inadequate uh after the financial crisis. One of the core things that was inadequate that people forget about is a lot of companies that caused the stress and financial crisis were not in the banks in system were not regulated. First you brought the companies in then it was capital liquidity range of activities of those companies get them out of private equity and more principal activities and more into supporting clients like yourselves let you guys make the investments let the private equity firms make the investments don't compete against them so range of activities uh and then you and it went down the road the models and uh how to how to build models and things like that but what happened in that time frame especially in the United States is the the the way the rules kept changing is going back when we thought that the capital ratios in the banks of 7 8% would be adequate under the first after DoddFrank you know and that was still you know 25 30% increase probably from where people were to there and people said that would be enough we now went from 7 8%'s adequate to 10 11%'s adequate and the risk in the industry is actually quite frankly probably come down on a relative basis during that time
银行监管与非银行机构
那么,如果您看看所有的法规,哪里是监管最过度的?嗯,首先,在2018-2019年,资本行业是充足的,现在又增加了25%,他们说现在是充足的。所以我认为他们必须做的是制定资本规则。他们必须在美国实施巴塞尔协议III,但要在一个公平的基础上,因为我们使用不同的标准。我们必须制定资本规则。我们必须摆脱一些重叠的流动性规则,您已经看到了SLR(Supplemental Leverage Ratio: 补充杠杆率)的变化。我们必须更清楚地了解我们参与更现代商业的能力,围绕您的网络稳定币(cyber stable coins)等,因为以前不清楚。然后您必须让银行发展,这不适用于美国银行,因为我们不允许这样做。让并购(M&A)更快地发生,因为美国有4000家银行,那个系统会发生变化,他们不应该为了与并购无关的目的而过度监管这种变化。所以我认为资本、流动性、并购规则,然后坦率地说,消费者监管的东西变得更加以惩罚为导向,更加以罚款为导向,更加超出了消费者想要的范围,偏离了消费者选择,这已经回摆了,而且人们对本届政府寄予厚望,希望我们能恢复平衡。
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>> so if you look at all the regulations where where are the worst overregulations >> well first of all In 201 you know 181 19 the capital industry was sufficient and it's gone up by 25% and now they say it's sufficient. So I think what they have to do is get the capital rules set. They have to get Basel 3 implementing United States but on a fair basis because we use a different standard. Uh we got capital rules set. We got to get rid of some of the overlapping liquidity rules which you've seen with this supplemental leverage ratio change. And we've got to get clearer about our ability to engage in more modern commerce that's around you the cyber stable coins and things like that because it wasn't clear before. And then you got to let banks go out and this isn't appropriate for Bank America because we're not allowed. Let the mergers take place faster because there's 4,000 banks in United States and there'll be changes in that system and they got to not try to overregulate that change for purpose have nothing to do with the merger. So I think capital liquidity merger rules and then frankly the consumer regulation stuff just got much more penalty oriented much more fine oriented much more beyond what consumers want and got away from consumer choice that's already swung back too and there's high hopes this administration we get it back to balance
有什么是监管不足的吗?比如私人信贷,嗯,你知道,私人信贷、另类信贷提供商等等,您在哪里看到这些?所以,Nicola,在过去一段时间里,一个原则有点被遗忘了,那就是银行监管机构的章程在全球范围内总是只关注银行系统,然后试图通过银行系统来监管银行系统之外的机构,而不是说等等,如果您发放贷款或接受存款,您就是一家银行,无论您是稳定币提供商还是私人资本贷款机构,您都必须受到监管,抵押贷款机构等等。所以美国的消费者局(Consumer Bureau)旨在按活动而非章程(他们称之为章程)进行扩展。活动,意味着我发放抵押贷款;章程,意味着我是一家银行而非非银行机构。所以它开始这样做。那是一件好事。不幸的是,它以不同的方式搞砸了,偏离了其核心章程。但那是一件好事。这在商业领域并没有发生。换句话说,系统中有许多进入者没有像其他进入者那样受到监管。这意味着您开始进入所谓的“监管套利”(regulatory arbitrage),对吗?如果我可以在系统之外做这件事,这就是银行系统,如果您看看美国,由于资本市场的深度,一半的资产类别(无论是商业贷款还是消费贷款)都在我们的银行系统之外,所以,你知道,您在问这是好事还是坏事,您可以说这是好事,因为它分散了风险,但如果活动在不同的监管下进行,那它就不是一件好事。所以如果我们被允许对一家公司进行X倍的杠杆,而且这看起来是良好的信用,为什么有人可以把它放在不同的地方进行更多的杠杆?他们可能是对的,但为什么我们不能这样做呢?你知道,不应该出现监管漏洞导致问题。这一点在Dodd-Frank提出的银行监管原则中被遗忘了,在全球范围内,你知道,所有这些进入银行环境的机构都受到欧洲央行(ECB)、美联储等的监管。现在它们又“泄露”出去了,这就是问题所在。
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>> anything which is not regulated enough >> like private like um uh you know private credit uh alternative providers of credit and so on where where do you see that >> so the principle is getting lost a little bit Nikolai in the last chunk of time here is the their banking regulators being sort of the what their charter is across the world always only look at the banking system and then try to regulate the outside the banking system through the banking system as opposed to saying wait if you make loans or take deposits you're a bank whether you're a a stable coin uh provider or whether you're a private capital lender you know you have to be regulated a mortgage lender etc so the consumer bureau in the United States was meant to expand by activity, not by charter, as they call it. Activity, meaning I make a mortgage loan charter. I'm a bank versus non-bank. So, it went to do that. That was a good thing. Unfortunately, it got it bollocked up in different ways and and got away from it core charter. But that's a good thing. That's not happening in the commercial space. In other words, there's lots of entrance in the system who are not regulated in the same way as other entrance. And what that means is you start to get into um you know, regulatory arbitrage, so-called, right? if I can do this outside the system and that's where the banking system if you look in the United States where it's simpler to describe because of depth of capital markets half of every asset class being commercial loans consumer loans or more is outside our banking system and so you know and you're saying is that a good thing or bad thing you could say it's a good thing because it spreads a risk but it's not a good thing if the activity goes on in a different regulation so if we're allowed to do leverage of X for a company and that looks like good credit why can somebody just put it in a different place and do more leverage. They may be right, but then why can't we do it? You know, it's you shouldn't have regulatory uh leakage cause a problem. That that piece got lost in the banking regulation principles that DoddFrank put came in and around the world, you know, all these institutions came into the banking environment were regulated by the ECB, by the P, etc., etc. Now they're leaking back out and that's the question.
全球市场与美国银行的品牌定位
您在许多不同的国家都有业务。除了美国之外,您对哪些国家最感兴趣?嗯,我们仍然对中东的内部发展感到兴奋。现在,在过去人们会说“给我钱,你正在赚钱,把你的钱交给我们管理”的日子里,这是一个不同的世界,银行业有不同的可能性。我们已经在迪拜(Dubai)经营了60年。所以这对我们来说不是什么新鲜事。但是,你知道,沙特阿拉伯(Saudi Arabia)和阿联酋(UAE)正在发生的事情,以及帮助这些公司成长和繁荣,这非常有趣。亚洲将永远有趣。它的兴趣点时起时伏。我们在澳大利亚(Australia)有一个很棒的特许经营权,它持续增长。我们在日本(Japan)有一个很好的业务,它重新发现了股东纪律等等,这对投资银行能力应该是有益的。然后,你知道,在欧洲,我们相信我们有很多市场份额可以获得。欧洲增长1%,但我们认为凭借我们的产品和服务,我们的能力,无论是在企业投资银行领域还是在市场领域,我们在英国(UK)和欧洲都有很大的增长空间,我将所有欧洲更广泛的国家都包括在内。所以我们觉得 everywhere 都有增长机会,事实上,我们的国际业务,你知道,只是为了让您了解它有多大,我们公司改变了多少,因为我们的名字是美国银行(Bank of America),每个人都想到美国,我们的国际业务,我们从大约15年前的200亿美元未偿贷款,增长到今天的1300-1500亿美元。所以它增长显著,它使我们能够将这些跨国客户带到世界各地,并帮助他们驾驭所有经济体。印度(India)是另一个好国家。我们已经在那里经营了60多年。你知道,我们已经在这些国家经营了很长时间,我们一直在投资,它们都是很好的机会,特别是当您拥有一个像银行业这样市场份额非常分散的世界时。M,您提醒我们,您的名字是美国银行,当然,这是一个有点敏感的问题,但是,你知道,在世界某些地方,对美国的看法最近有所改变。您认为美国银行这个名字好吗?
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>> You are in many different countries. Um outside of the US, which countries are you the most excited about? Well, we continue to be excited about um what's going on in in the Middle East in terms of inward development. Now, in in the days where people went and said, "Give it, you're making money, give us your money to go manage, you know, it's a different world and different possibilities for banking." We've been in, you know, Dubai for 60 years. So, it's not like a new new thing to us. But, you know, what's going on in Saudi Arabia, what's going on in the UAE and and helping those companies grow and prosper. That's kind of very interesting. Asia will always be interesting. It es and flows where it's interesting. We have a great franchise in in Australia which continues to grow. We we got a good business in Japan which has a new found of uh shareholder discipline and stuff which ought to be good for investment banking capabilities. And then you know and then Europe we we believe that we have lots of market share to gain. It's not Europe grows at 1% but we think with our products and services our capabilities whether it's in the corporate investment banking space or in the market space we just have a lot of room to grow in the UK and Europe I put together in that case in all of European sort of broader set of countries and so we feel there's growth opportunities everywhere and in fact our international business you know just to give you a sense of how big it's how much our company's changed because our name is Bank of America everybody thinks of America our international business we went from approximately uh 20 billion outstanding loans 15 years ago about 130 150 billion today. So it's grown dramatically and it's keyed us to take those multinational clients across the world and help them navigate all the economies. India is another good country. We've been there 60 plus years. You know we've been on these countries a long time and we keep investing and they're all good opportunities especially when you have a world that's very disagated market share like it is in banking. M you reminded us uh that your name is Bank of America and of course this is a bit of a sensitive question but you know uh in some parts of the world the view of America has changed a bit lately. Do you think uh is Bank of America a good name to have?
是的,它是一个伟大的品牌,我们对此进行了大量研究。嗯,它带来了巨大的积极影响,显然,在一个人们想要对美国表明立场的世界里,您是美国银行,人们会把我们和美联储(Fed)混淆,我们不是美联储,因为在某些国家,X银行就是中央银行,我们不是中央银行,所以您会遇到一些有趣的趣事,人们会给我写信,好像我在设定利率一样,但我没有。嗯,但是,你知道,这是一个伟大的特许经营权,一个伟大的品牌,我们在美国拥有美林(Merrill)用于金融咨询业务,因为它具有独特性,但在美国以外,我们基本上以美国银行的名义运营,除非在法律不允许的情况下,因为我们从事证券业务,然后我们以美国银行美林证券(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)或其他形式运营,但它是一个伟大的品牌,你知道,我们接受它的优点和缺点,你知道,归根结底,你知道,我们银行最古老的部分自乔治·华盛顿(George Washington)担任总统以来就存在于这个国家。所以这是一段美好的旅程。
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>> It it is it's it stands it's a a great brand and we we do a lot of research on it. Um and so the great positives it comes with u obviously in a world where people want to take a position about America say about America you're bank of America uh people confuse us with the Fed we're not the Fed because in certain countries the bank of X is the central bank we're not the central bank and so you get some interesting fun uh uh happenings around that where people write the letter to me acting like I'm setting interest rates or something which I'm not. Um but you know it's it's a great franchise, a great brand and we have Merill for the uh consu the financial advisory business in the US because it's distinctive but outside the US we basically operate as Bank of America except where it's not legal to do that because we do a securities business and then we operate Bank America Maril Lynch or some other configuration but it's a great brand and you know we take its pluses and minuses and you know at the end of the day you know we've been around this country uh since uh George Washington was president in the oldest parts of our bank. So it's been a good ride.
AI对银行及社会的影响
转向科技。人工智能(AI)将如何改变银行?它已经开始了。所以它将从几个不同的维度改变银行,而且它才刚刚真正开始。首先,它使您能够用人机交互取代人机交互。其次,它帮助您分析我们所说的“文本到文本”(text to text),换句话说,大量信息。您如何将它们整合在一起,然后以不同的方式呈现出来,以便有人可以利用它?它还可以帮助您进行测试和检查。我们每天提交数百万份报告,它不仅帮助您准备这些报告,更重要的是帮助您测试这些报告以确保其准确性,并帮助您找出改进它们的方法。所以,你知道,如果您回顾一下,它还帮助我们进行计算机编码,我们已经在使用了。18000多名程序员已经在使用了。所以让我给一个非常具体直接的例子。我们称这项产品或技术为Erica(Bank of America's virtual assistant: 美国银行的虚拟助手)。Erica是消费者在美国银行拥有虚拟助手的方式。您会听到很多关于代理机器人(agent bots)等等的讨论。我们现在已经拥有这个5、7、8年了。我们大约在10-12年前开始,我们让他们开发的是,我们研究了搜索技术,它在金融服务领域根本行不通。所以我们让他们开发了一种新的自然语言处理预测模型,我们今天称之为小型语言模型(small language model)。当时没有人会这样称呼它,因为那是一个不同的世界。我们让他们为我们构建了它,然后我们用它来训练我们自己的数据,它可以回答问题,现在每个季度有2000万美国银行客户使用Erica约2亿次来提问,Erica可以回答这些问题。现在,Erica在改进和完善方面还有很大的空间,但我们知道它有效。这2亿次互动本来会是电话、短信、电子邮件或走进分支机构。所以,每个季度我们处理2亿次互动。我们已经高度数字化了。我们每年有500亿次消费者互动。所以这是一个巨大的活动量。它高度数字化,但利用AI进一步数字化的空间与我们现有的机器学习(machine learning)和其他类型的模型不同。Erica向我们展示了这座桥梁。
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>> Moving on to technology. How will AI transform the bank? >> It's already started. Um so it's going to transform the bank around a couple dimensions are different and it's just started in earnest. Um first it enables you to have replace uh human interaction with to human interaction. Second, it replaces your it helps you analyze what we call text to text. In other words, big amounts of information. How do you pull them together and have them come out the other side so somebody then can take that and utilize it differently? It also can help you with testing and and and checking things. We file, you know, literally millions and millions of reports a day and it helps you not only prepare those, but more importantly to test those to make sure they're accurate and and and helps you find out ways to improve them. So, you know, if you back and it helps us in computer coding, we're already using it. 18,000 plus programmers already use it and and and stuff. So let me let me give a very concrete straightforward example. So this product this technique we call Erica. So Erica is the way a consumer can have a virtual assistant at Bank of America. You're hearing a lot about agent agent bots and all that stuff. We've had this now for 5, seven, eight years. We started about 10 12 years ago and what we had them develop is we looked at the search technology and it just wasn't going to work in financial services. So we had them develop a new natural language processing predictive model which today we call a small lang you know small language model. Back then nobody would have called it that because it was a different world. We had them build that for us and then we used it and trained on our own data and it can answer questions and now 20 million Bank America customers use Erica each quarter about 200 million times to ask questions that it can answer. Now, Erica has a lot of room to go in refinements and improvements and and doing it, but we know it works. And those 200 million interactions would have been a phone call, a tech, a text or an email or walking into a branch. So, 200 million times a quarter we're moving. We're heavy digitalized already. We have 50 billion consumer interactions a year. So, it's massive amount of activity. It's heavy digitalized, but the room to go to digitalize it more with AI is different with with the machine learning and and other types of models we had. And Erica shows us that bridge
当您将您的人工智能和技术使用情况与其他银行进行基准测试时,您看到了什么?你知道,这就是您会遇到人们说他们正在做什么和我们正在做什么的问题。我们看到Erica在那里工作。我们没有看到任何产品实际上,我们看到某些产品正在出现,可以做到这一点。嗯,我们看到了我们在编码方面所做的工作,其他人也在谈论它。我们今天有18000人实际在做这件事。所以我们觉得我们是一家应用技术的公司,而且应用规模巨大。所以我们每年在技术创新上花费大约45亿美元,我们称之为新代码和新工作。嗯,我们不懈地应用它。我们是美国各种技术,包括人工智能技术应用的最大专利持有者之一。所以我们的观点是,我们处于最先进的水平,甚至超越。但我们不做的是宣布那些不切实际的事情。我们是一家非常注重实效的公司,我们会在它已经运行并通过系统推广之后才告诉人们。所以,在编码方面,很多人都在谈论“我正在做这个”。我们说的是让人们行动起来。我们正在节省大约,一个项目从业务启动到结束有21个步骤。其中五六个步骤可以通过人工智能得到增强。我们正在使用它,18000人。我们正在节省这五个步骤中大约30%的时间,这使我们总体上节省了大约10%,你知道,所以我们更多地是它的应用驱动者,没有人拥有像Erica这样规模和范围的产品。没有人拥有我们所做的自动化承保,你知道,诸如此类的事情。但真正的问题是如何继续推动它走向新的领域?所以我们的投资银行团队正在准备推介材料。我们刚刚开始实施。他们仍然有人在前面确保它们是正确的以及它们如何运作,但这给了他们一个优势。所以我们每天都在应用这个,嗯,嗯,嗯,嗯,嗯,市场业务中的客户互动都由人工智能驱动,基于我们的研究。而不是从四面八方抓取东西,然后拼凑在一起,犯错误。它利用我们的研究,以更全面的方式组织并交付给我们的客户,所以每天的Maestro都会将这些信息发送给所有人。所以我们相信应用这项技术。
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>> and when you benchmark your usage of AI and technology against other banks, what do you see? >> You know, I I this is where you get into the question of what people say they're doing, what we're doing. We we see Erica out there working. We don't see any product that's actually see we see the in certain products are just emerging that can do that. um we've seen what we've done in coding and other other people are talking about it. We have 18,000 people literally doing this today. So we we feel we are a company of applied technology in just massive uh massive amounts. So we spend about four and a half billion dollars a year on technology initiatives we call it which is new new code and new work. Um we apply that relentlessly. We're one of the largest patent holders for all kinds of technology, including AI a technology applications in the US. And so our view is we're we're state-of-the-art and beyond. But what we aren't doing is announcing things which don't stick to the ribs. We're very much a company that says we'll tell people after it's already operating and drive it through the system. And so that so with coding, a lot of people talked about I'm you know doing this. What we say is let's get people going. And we're saving about there's 21 steps in a project to go from business initiation to endpoint. Five or six of them are capable of being enhanced by artificial intelligence. We're using it 18,000 people. We're saving about 30% of those five steps which gets us about 10% overall, you know, and so we're much more applied uh driver of it and nobody has anything like Erica and size and scale. Nobody has the automated underwriting we do, you know, things like that. But the real question is how do you keep driving this to new places? And so our teammates in investment bank are preparing pitch books. We just started implemented that. They all still have people in front of them to make sure they're right and how they work, but it gives them a leg up. And so we're applying this uh daily uh uh uh uh uh customer interactions in the markets business are all driven by artificial intelligence off the base of our research. Not grabbing stuff from all over everywhere and throwing together and making mistakes. It takes our research and organiz and delivers it out in a more comprehensive fashion to our clients and so the maestro every day shoots that out to everybody. So we believe in applying this technology.
那么,当您部署了所有用例,其他人也部署了所有用例,并且您拥有了,你知道,在蓝领方面帮助我们的人形机器人时,10到15年后社会会是什么样子?这是一个重大问题,但您可以根据经验来谈。我们公司,嗯,这是我担任这个职位荣誉的第16年,我们推动了许多变革。2010年,我们有28.5万人。今天我们有21.2万人。所以客户数量更多了。互动数量暴增。贷款账簿的规模更大了。存款账簿的规模几乎是三倍。消费者交易数量,等等,交易数量、报价,一切都大大增加了。公司规模更大了,但你知道,员工减少了30%。这都是通过应用技术实现的。这让您有机会去以前无法去的地方。所以我们所做的是,我们把公司,你知道,薪酬水平,AI易感性,你知道,一个轴是薪酬水平,另一个轴是AI易感性,然后用点来表示从事这些活动的人数有多少,您要寻找的是那些易受影响、薪酬高、人数众多的点,这就是您要追求的目标。所以这与我们15年前经历的自动化不同。那更多是处理团队成员等等。我们公司只有2.5万名处理团队成员,也许20多万人中有3万人。所以随着工作已经转移,这让您有机会去不同的地方,我们的风险团队成员、我们的财务团队成员、我们的人力资源团队成员,人力资源团队在简历等方面使用了一些技术。这就是这里的区别。那么这对社会有什么影响呢?我会给您一个半满半空的杯子。嗯,1969年,美国有8000万人工作。在1960年代,计算机的出现,技术的出现,以及所有工作都将流向“日本公司”(Japan Inc.)的想法,当时中国尚未崛起,认为美国将有更丰富的就业机会。今天我们有1.6亿人工作,所以随着所有这些技术从60年代末到现在投入使用,我们能够在这个国家雇佣两倍多的人。所以我认为简单地说,世界有自己的运作方式,这会走向不同的地方。我能理解为什么人们会有点担心,但另一方面,你知道,像您这样的公司,一个智力型公司,这就是您所做的,它会帮助人们更有效率,它会,随着时间的推移,您可能会削减您的总人数,但这并不意味着您会,这将是一个漫长的过程,也许,你知道,总有一天人们可以幻想,在我们没有人剩下之前。
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>> So when you have um deployed uh all your user cases and all everybody else have deployed all their user cases and you have you know the humanoid helping us on the on the blue collar side. What what is society going to look like 10 15 years from now? This is this is one of the great questions out there but but you can talk from experience. So our company uh you this is my 16th year having the honor of running the place and we've driven a lot of change. It went in 2010 we had 285,000 people. Today we have 212,000 people. So that's all the c the numbers of customers are larger. The numbers of interactions are through the roof. The numbers of you size of the loan book is is is bigger. Their size of deposit book is you almost threefold bigger. You numbers of consumer transactions blah blah blah blah blah trading transactions, quotes, everything. Hugely bigger company but you know 30% less people. That was all by applying technology. What this gives you is a chance to go to places you couldn't go before. And so what we did is we took the company and took you know compensation levels AI susceptibility you know the one axis compensation levels the other axis AI susceptibility and then dots for how big the um the the numbers of people doing those activities are and what you're looking for is dots that are susceptible that are highly paid that are big volumes of people and that's what you're trying to go after. So that's different than the automation we went through 15 years ago. it was more uh processing teammates and things like that. We only have 25,000 processing teammates in the company maybe 30,000 out of the 200 some thousand. So as the work has already shifted this allows you to go to different places to our our risk teammates, our finance teammates, our HR teammates, the HR team uses uh uh some techniques in terms of resumes and things like that. That's the difference here. And so what's the societal impact of that? I'll give you glass half full half empty. Um in 1969 America employed 80,000 80 million people worked in America. In 1960s the advent of of computers the advent of technology the idea that all the jobs were going to go to Japan Inc. at that point it was before China emerged the idea that you know the US was going to be more abundant employment. Today we have 160 million people working and so something happened as all that technology I think from the late 60s now came on stream that we are able to employ twice as many people in this country and so I think simply put the world has a way of working in the way around us this goes to different places I can understand why people are a little concerned but on the other hand you know at a firm like yours which is a brain power firm and that's what you do it'll help people be more effective it'll make and over time you may be able to trim your aggregate headcount but It doesn't mean you're gonna It's going to be a long time and maybe, you know, someday people can fantasize about it before we have no people left.
领导力与企业文化
Brian,您在金融危机后于2010年成为CEO。在您任职期间,您做出的最艰难的决定是什么?嗯,最艰难的决定都围绕着我们如何度过金融危机的余波,以及我们如何坚定地解决问题。所以我们有一个季度,我们解决了200亿美元的诉讼等等。你知道,那些都是艰难的决定。这不一定是财务决定足够艰难,而是决定在抵押贷款业务中采取完全不同的立场对人的影响。嗯,你知道,公司曾经每五笔抵押贷款中就有一笔,我们不得不降到5%的市场份额,因为我们所做的事情不是直接面向消费者。那些是艰难的决定,因为它们影响了人们的生活,以及我们重塑公司所有智力资源的能力。嗯,那是一个艰难的决定,所有最艰难的决定都与人有关,你知道,以及扰乱他人的生活。所以裁员,改变人员,这就是为什么我们坦率地说,非常努力地进行人员管理以避免裁员,而且在过去的10-15年里我们做得相当好。在早期,我们不得不进行一些裁员。对我来说,那是最艰难的决定,因为您基本上是在面对一个优秀的员工,一个为公司努力工作的员工,然后说,你知道吗,我们不能再用你了。这就是我们进行人工智能对话的原因,为什么我们如此谨慎地管理人力,并试图弄清楚如何确保我们不会人员过剩,然后不得不裁员。
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>> Brian, you became CEO in 2010 after the financial crisis. What's the toughest decision you made during your tenure in the bank? >> Well, the toughest decisions all ran around how how we got through the aftermath of financial crisis and how we had to be so resolute on resolving issues. So we had a quarter where you we settled lawsuits, the $20 billion lawsuit, etc. You know, those were tough decisions. It wasn't necessarily the financial decision that was tough enough, but it was the people implications of deciding to take a completely different position in the mortgage business. Um, and you from company was doing one in five mortgages, we had to go down to where we got to 5% share because we what we were doing was not directly with consumers. Those were hard decisions because they affected people's lives and our ability and and had to retrain our whole brain power in the company. Um that was a tough all the decisions that are toughest are about people you know and disrupting other people's lives. So downsizing people, changing people and that's why we frankly have worked very hard to do headcount management to avoid layoffs and we've been pretty good at it for the last 1015 years. In the early days, we had to do some layoffs. And to me, that's the toughest decision because you're basically walking into somebody who was a great worker, worked the you work for the company, and say, you know what, we just can't use you anymore. And that's going to our AI conversations why we're managing headcount so carefully and trying to figure out how to make sure that we aren't overstaffing and then having to take people out.
您会亲自告诉任何人,还是将这委托给其他人?哦,我不得不这样做,你知道,我从不开始这样的过程,除非我愿意改变为我工作的人,你知道。所以实际上,讽刺的是,在我们金融危机后进行的第一次裁员中,我失去了我的工作,那是在我成为CEO之前,我负责整合工作,我决定他们必须裁掉的职位之一就是我的,我差点就离开了公司,然后他们给了我一份不同的工作,我留了下来。所以我坚信,您必须从高层开始。这不是一个自下而上的事情,我也坚信管理层必须谨慎地进行人员配置,以确保他们不会扰乱广大员工,而这来自一个25-30年来一直从事并购(M&A: Mergers and Acquisitions: 并购)整合工作的人,你知道,当你转向有机增长公司时,你必须更谨慎地削减成本,因为当你进行并购时,公司A和公司B,人们知道会有变化。
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>> Do you tell anybody yourself or you is that delegated to other people? >> Oh, I I had to, you know, I never start a process like this unless I'm willing to change the people work for me, you know. So actually it ironically it in the first downsizing we did out as a financial crisis I lost my job and and it was before I CEO I I was running integration and I decided that the pos one of the positions they had to eliminate was mine and and I was almost out of the company and they offered me a different job and I stayed. So I believe resolutely that you have to start from the top. This is not a bottoms up thing and I think it I also believe resolutely that management has to be careful on staffing to ensure that they don't disrupt the broad base of employees and that this is coming from a guy for 25 30 years who spent his life doing M&A merger integration you know the relentless take out of cost as you went to organic growth company you have to be much more careful because there when you're doing a merger company A company B people know that there's going to be changes
当您像我们现在这样是一家有机增长公司时,人们不会预料到会有那种变化,所以您必须在绩效管理等方面进行管理。所以是的,我不得不告诉自己,而且我希望我的所有直接下属都能层层传达,你知道,在那些时候如何采取行动。我们基本上经营公司,所以我们不必再那样做了。
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>> when you're organic growth company like we are now people don't anticipate there's going to be those kinds of changes so you have to manage in performance management etc so yes I had to tell myself and uh and I would expect not at all my direct reports cascade through you know how to at those times how to take uh take action I we basically run the company so we don't have to do that again
您提到了并购,许多其他银行已经转向财富管理、金融科技,并收购了相关业务。嗯,美国银行一直保持着非常稳定的发展方向。为什么会这样?嗯,有两点,我不想坐牢,因为如果您存款超过10%,在美国收购银行是违法的。这并不是刑事责任。但是,你知道,这只是违法行为,说实话。所以,除非那家银行倒闭,否则我们不能收购另一家有存款的银行。
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>> you mentioned you mentioned M&A and many other banks have kind of pivoted into wealth management fintech acquired things now. Uh, Bank of America has maintained a a a very steady course. Um, why is that? >> Well, there there's there's one I don't want to go to jail because it's illegal to acquire banks in the US if you're above 10% of deposit. Not it's not criminally uh responsible. But, you know, it's just against the law honestly. And so, we cannot acquire another bank with deposit unless that bank fails. And
还有很多其他东西。还有很多其他东西你可以买,对吧?你知道,财富管理,等等。
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>> lots of other stuff. Lots of other stuff you can buy, right? you know, wealth management, whatever.
然后当您转向财富管理和其他业务时,其中很多都包含存款,你知道,所以我们一直对此很谨慎。但让我退一步。归根结底,我们公司拥有如此强大的有机增长能力。所以我们最高的市场份额在10%、13%、14%左右。我们有很大的增长空间,我们拥有品牌能力,嗯,团队能力,你知道,产品能力,您可以直接推动有机增长。所以当人们说我们退出资产管理业务是因为我们认为它与作为最大的分销机构不符时。我们在财富管理资产方面拥有4.5万亿美元,你知道,我们管理着大公司的资金,并将其引入我们的投资者。说实话,我们不需要自己制造产品。所以我们退出了,我们出售了那部分业务。但这并不意味着我们在财富管理方面没有巨大的份额。你知道,它是业内最大的之一。所以这种情况发生了。所以我们一直在思考如何,我们的基本原则是我们有八个客户业务,我们直接服务客户,我们不做间接业务,所以我们努力真正专注于此,这使我们得出结论,我们最好的做法是向客户提供财务建议,无论是通过自动化工具还是通过私人银行或美林证券亲自提供,而不是,你知道,基本上是批发资产管理产品。所以当我们展望未来时,我们收购了支付领域的公司,你知道,和支付技术。所以我们收购了医疗支付和其他领域的公司,我们将继续这样做,以增加支付领域的产品和能力,这就是,我们也成立了公司。所以Zelle(Zelle: 美国数字支付网络)的前身是由行业成立的。我们成立了公司来帮助推动这一点,我们将继续这样做。所以,你知道,我们的观点是,我们是一家有机增长公司,我们必须专注于此,然后如果我们看到市场机会,比如在401(k)(401(k): 美国养老金计划)业务中,我们投资了,你知道,1亿美元,并推动了它,因为在一个,你知道,650-700亿美元的费用基础上,增加1-2亿美元,而不是进行收购,如果您甚至能找到一家公司并弄清楚如何重新配置它,您可以直接推动它并通过销售团队推动它。所以我们吸取了教训,了解了我们能多快地推动世界上的事情,我们将投入资金支持。您会如何描述美国银行的企业文化?企业文化?我认为,嗯,它体现在我们提出的问题中:“您希望拥有什么力量?”我们的文化是帮助服务我们的客户,帮助他们实现财务目标,嗯,并做到这一点,服务我们所有的利益相关者,我们的客户,帮助他们实现目标。我们的团队成员互相帮助实现目标。我们的股东,帮助他们实现目标,以及我们的社区,因为归根结底,我们必须确保我们的社区强大而有韧性,因为那是我们赚钱的经济体的核心基础。
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>> Then when you go to wealth management, other stuff, a lot of it has deposits in it, you know, and so and so we've been careful about that. But let me step back. In the end of the day, we have such an organic growth capability in this company. So our highest market shares are in the low, you know, 10, 13, 14%. We got a lot of room to grow and we have the brand capability, uh, the the teammate capability, the, you know, the product capability, you can just drive the organic growth. So when people say we got out of the asset management business because we thought it was inconsistent with being the biggest distribution house. We have $4.5 trillion dollars in wealth management assets, you know, we take great companies and manage money and and get them into our investors. We didn't need to make the product honestly. And so we got out of we sold that. But that doesn't mean we don't have a huge stake in wealth management. You know, it's one of the biggest in the in the business. So that happens. So we we're always trying to think through how do we our basic principle is we have eight customer se uh businesses we go after the customers directly we don't do indirect business so we try to really focus on that and that led us to saying our best thing was to be giving financial advice to the customer whether it's automatedly through me edge or personally through uh the private bank or mel rather than you know basically it's a wholesaling uh uh asset management product. So as we look forward we bought uh we bought companies and payments you know and payment technology. So we bought companies in medical payments in other areas and we will continue to do that to add products and capabilities in the payments area that that's and we've also formed companies. So Zel which was had a predecessor was formed by the industry. We formed countries companies to help drive that we'll continue to do that. So you know our our view is we're organic growth company and we got to be focused here and then if we see a market opportunity like in the 401k business we invested you know 100 million our business and drove it because with a you know 6570 billion expense base an incremental 10020 million rather than doing an acquisition if you could even find a company and figure out how to reconfigure it you could just drive it and drive it through the sales force. So we we've learned a lesson about how fast we can drive things in the world will spend the money to support. How would you how would you describe the corporate culture in the mech the corporate culture? Look, I think it's uh it's it's embedded in the the phrase the question we asked. What would you like the power to do? Our culture is to help serve our clients to help them achieve their financial goals u and do that and serve all our constituenties, our clients, our customers help them meet their goals. Our teammates help each other meet their goals. our shareholders, help them meet their goals and our communities because the end day we have to make sure our communities are are are strong and resilient because that that's the core base of the economy of which we make our money.
您认为银行就是银行吗?我的意思是,您认为您银行的企业文化与其他银行非常不同,还是说银行家就是银行家?我认为产品和服务更像商品。您交付它们的方式则不然。因此,以客户为中心的方式交付,你知道,直接面向客户,而不是拥有那些,你知道,间接面向客户的业务等等。你知道,这确实不同,而且在我们的产品、我们的品牌和我们的能力、我们的人才方面,我们是全球性的,我们是全国性的,这些都是非常独特的东西。只有少数几家公司能像我们一样在全球范围内为企业和世界各地的投资者做我们所做的事情。只有,你知道,少数几家公司。所以这些都是非常独特的。嗯,但是您刚才说支票账户就是支票账户,但是您如何以客户为中心、整合奖励的方式交付那个支票账户,这需要一种哲学上的差异,然后您如何定位自己,以及我们的客户、我们的团队成员如何渴望帮助客户,使我们的品牌在所有业务中的满意度不断上升。这种专注我认为是独特的。好的。那么,现在我们来到您的3700家分支机构之一。好的。是的。
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>> Do you think a bank is a bank? I I mean is do you think the corporate culture in your bank is very different from other banks or or or is a banker a banker? I I I think they're the products and services are more commodity. The way you deliver them is not. And so delivering on a customer focused basis make you know direct to the customer not having those you know places that are indirectly customer businesses etc. You know that is different but and in our products our brand and our capabilities our talent are the the fact we're global the fact we're nationwide those are all very unique things. there's only a couple of us can do what we do on a global basis for corporates and and investors around the world. There's only you know a handful of companies. So those are very unique. Um but you just said a checking account is a checking account but how you deliver that checking account for on a customer focused integrated rewards basis th that takes a philosophical difference and then how do you position yourself as and our client our customers our teammates how they desire to help the customers put our brand at the best just keeps going up and up and up in terms of satisfaction in all our businesses that that's a unique that focus I think is unique. Okay. So, now we're coming into one of your 3,700 branches. Okay. Yeah.
我52岁了,有一个支票账户。嗯,你知道,我怎么才能感觉到美国银行与其他银行不同呢?嗯,我给您讲个故事。我曾经坐在一个我不认识的人旁边,他们转向我,说:“你知道吗,我们一家三代人一起去了银行。我父亲、我,还有我儿子,我们都有业务要办,那里的员工做得非常出色。”她的父亲,一位退役军官,出门时说:“他们管理得很好。”这意味着执行力很强。所以,所有客户都有这种感觉。她说:“他们非常照顾我父亲。他们非常照顾我。我儿子很高兴能开他的第一个银行账户。”这就是我们想要灌输的理念,在“攻击点”上,这种体验会一遍又一遍地发生。顺便说一句,我的电子邮件是公开的。如果客户没有得到这种体验,他们就不会感到满意,对吗?请告诉我。所以,你知道,他们可以直接给我发电子邮件,也可以发给我们公司高层的其他团队成员。所以我们会听到,你知道,任何问题,我们都会努力找出原因并重新设计。这是管理这个庞大企业的过程方面。您不放过任何机会。但您想要的感觉是,那位客户只是自发地告诉我,就像您说的,我走进您的分支机构,我得到了这种体验,而且那位客户不认识我。其他认识我的客户会告诉我,但那位客户我一生中从未见过,直到我坐在他们旁边,参加一个与银行无关的活动。
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>> I'm 52 years old, got a checking account. Uh, you know, how how can I feel that Bank of America is different from other banks? >> Well, I'll tell you a story. I I was sitting next to somebody uh that I didn't know and they turned to me they and they said, you know, we went in with three generations in my family. my father, me, and and my son, and we all had business, and the people did such a great job. Her father, who had been a a leader in the military, said they run a pretty good unit on the way out the door, you know, which meaning the execution was strong. So, but all the all the customers felt that way. She said, "They took great care of my father. They took great care of me. My son was excited to open his first bank account." That's what we want to instill is that at the point of attack that happens over and over and over again. And by the way, my email is in the public domain. If customer doesn't get that experience, they don't they're not feelful, right? Let me know. And so I don't, you know, they can they can send an email directly to me and to our other teammates at the top of the house. So we hear about, you know, anything goes bump in a night and we try to figure out why and re-engineer it. That's the process side of running this huge enterprise. You leave nothing to chance. But the feeling side you want is that customer came just unsolicited tell me to your point. I walked in your branch and I got this experience and that customer didn't know me. Other customers who know me will tell it but that customer I'd never met in my life until I sat next to them at a thing that was unrelated to bank.
您认为建立高绩效文化的秘诀是什么?归根结底,您必须拥有优秀的人才。您必须指导他们,最重要的是,他们必须相信公司是为了他们而存在的。
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>> What do you think is the key to building a high performance culture? >> Look at the end of the day you got to get great people. You got to coach them and and the number one thing is they got to believe the company is in it for them.
所以他们会继续寻求发展。他们会继续寻求建议。他们会继续学习。他们觉得这种文化不仅能帮助他们完成日常工作,你知道,储蓄,保护他们的家人,嗯,保持家人健康,等等。他们真正想知道的是,这家公司会帮助我做一些我否则无法做到的事情。所以在我们与世界上最优秀、最大的科技或网络安全公司竞争招聘人才的领域,人们来这里是因为他们知道他们可以做一些特别的事情,但他们也知道我们会以正确的方式去做。我认为这就是获得人才的关键。您必须获得人才,但您必须确保人才能够茁壮成长。所以我们进行了一项员工调查,我们刚刚收到了结果,它持续增长,比去年上升了几个百分点。
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>> So they continue to seek development. They continue to seek uh advice. They continue to learn. They feel that the culture not only will help them do the day-to-day, you know, save, protect their family, uh keep their family healthy, that stuff. They really want to know this company's going to help me do something here I can't otherwise do. And so in areas where we're recruiting against the, you know, the biggest best firms in the world that you can describe in technology or cyber security, the people come here because they know they can do special things, but they also know that we're going to do it the right way. And I think that's that's the key to getting that talent. You got to get that talent and but you got to make sure that talent thrives. And so we take an employee survey and we just got back the results and it's up a you continues to increase and up a couple points since last year.
但有18万人填写了那份调查。所以它不是,我们问他们对公司的看法,有48个问题。我做这个已经30年了。我们可以看到其中的细微差别。但您希望他们说:“我相信我的经理会让我变得更好,我相信我可以在这家公司做任何我想做的事情,我可以抓住这个机会。”这就是您想要的文化之所以能够持续下去的原因,因为那意味着最优秀、最聪明的人才会来、会留下并茁壮成长。
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>> But 180,000 people fill out that survey >> and so it's not and we asked them what do they think about the company and 48 questions. I've been doing it for 30 years. We can look at the nuances. But you want them to say, I believe my manager is going to make me better and I believe I can do anything I can do with this company and I can seize on that opportunity. That's what gets that culture going that you want because that then means the best and brightest will come stay and prosper.
持续学习与自我提升
您个人在哪里寻求建议?我,你看,我从我建议的事情中获得建议。我从很多来源阅读大量信息,嗯,很多我可能同意或不同意的来源。然后我,你知道,我总是观察其他公司在做什么,其他CEO在做什么,以及过去的CEO做过什么。这不像我去找X说:“你觉得呢?”更多的是您会得到一系列的X,然后说:“你知道,你如何看待他们思考这些问题的方式?”所以我有幸一路走来有很多优秀的导师。但每次我参加会议,我总是试图弄清楚,你知道,我的一些同事是如何分析一个我可能没有想到的问题,或者他们正在思考什么,或者其他公司正在思考什么,或者倾听客户的意见。所以您必须成为一台学习机器,这就是成为CEO或当今社会任何人的诀窍,信息是为您策划的,您必须避免策划。您必须超越它去寻求。您必须尝试找出不同的东西。然后在一个您是领先公司之一的行业中,您还必须大量地关注行业之外的什么才是重要的。所以当我们思考我们的品牌时,你知道,是的,在金融服务等领域。但有史以来最好的品牌是什么,为什么,以及伟大的品牌何时犯过错误,你知道,这就是您会思考,你知道,吉姆·柯林斯(Jim Collins)和那些伟大的商业作家以及《基业长青》(Good to Great)和所有这些不同的东西。您总是试图从所有这些中找出,你知道,那种。
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>> Where do where do you personally seek advice? >> I look I get my advice from doing what I suggest. I I read a lot from a lot of sources uh a lot of sources that I might may or may not agree with. And then I have, you know, I always am watching what other companies do and what other CEOs do and what other CEOs in the past have done. And it's not like I go to X and say, "What do you think?" It's more you you get a paniply of X's and say, you know, how do you think about how they thought through these questions? So I've had the luck of having great mentors along the way. But every time I sit in a session, I'm always trying to figure out how you know some of my peers analyze a problem that I may have not have thought to what they're thinking about or other companies what they're thinking about or listen to clients. And so it's just you got to be a learning machine and and that's the the trick about being a CEO is or anybody in our society today is the information is curated to you and you have to avoid curation. You have to seek beyond that. You have to try to find out different things. And then in an industry where you're the leading company, you one of the leading companies, you have also have to look outside our industry a lot to what is important. So when we think about our brand, you know, yes, in financial services, etc. But what are the best brands that ever existed and why and what when did uh great brands make mistakes, you know, that's where you think about, you know, Jim Collins and the great business writers and mighty fall and all these different things. You're always trying to figure out from all that, you know, sort of
有史以来最好的品牌是什么?哦,我们看所有的品牌。所有大型消费品牌,所有大型机构品牌,那些在一段时间内有机增长市场份额的品牌。嗯,我们正在研究它们。我不会点名,因为这对它们或我不会点名的品牌都不公平,但您会有您通常会想到的那些品牌。但是,你知道,您总是在不同的业务中。所以,您不能只说他们做了这个,我们也做那个。您必须坐下来思考他们做这件事的原则是什么。失败的最大原因是什么,您正在努力避免什么?
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>> what are the best brands which ever existed. >> Oh, we look at them all. All the big consumer brands, all the big institutional brands, people have grown market share organically across periods of time. Uh, and we're studying them. And I I won't name them because that's not fair to them or to the ones I wouldn't name, but you you'd have your usual suspects. But, you know, we're you're always in different business. So, you can't just say they did this, we do that. You have to sit there and say what were the principles by which they did this. What are the biggest reasons for failure that you are trying to avoid?
我认为,a是自满,b是您陷入官僚主义和大型公司的进步。您如何突破这一点?c是您没有领先或跟上潮流。这就是人工智能有趣的地方,我们必须利用它并推动它。但如果您走得太远,您可能会以一种可能行不通的方式押注公司。所以,你知道,这就是失败的根源。人们走在潮流前面太远,或者没有跟上潮流,或者没有保持品牌新鲜,或者没有意识到自己做得不好,并且愿意去探究和提问。所以,虽然CEO总是要乐观,你知道,但在深夜,您必须非常冷静地思考我们做错了什么,我们可以做得更好,一直如此,但您必须确保将这些转化为行动和流程,以便完成任务,这很棘手,是的。
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>> I I think you a complacency u b you get stuck in bureaucracy and progress a large company. How do you break through that? C you you don't get ahead or get ahead of a trend. And this is where AI is kind of interesting is you got to we got to utilize this and drive it. But if you get too far ahead, you can bet the company in a way that may not work. And so that's you know and those are the source of failure. people get too far ahead of a trend or don't keep up with a trend and or don't keep the brand fresh or don't think think they're doing well when they're not doing well and are willing to poke at and ask questions. So while a CEO would you know always has to be optimistic you know in the heat of the night you have to be very sort of what am I what are we doing wrong what could we do better all the time but you have to make sure you translate that into action into process so it gets done and that's that's tricky yes
您如何保持一台学习机器?您只是,您早上很早起床,我只是吸收,你知道,只是开始阅读,你知道,多份报纸,多个新闻来源,嗯,多篇研究论文,嗯,您只是在那里倾听,你知道,您总是在倾听并努力学习。顺便说一句,你知道,我们谈论今天的年轻人。你知道,我担心的一件事是他们获取信息的方式的策划。我们所有人获取信息的方式,我不应该说是年轻人,是所有人。我们所有人通过新闻推送和算法获取信息的方式缩小了您的视野,而不是拓宽了您的视野。但是有一本书,作者是布莱恩·格雷泽(Brian Grazer),他是一位伟大的电影制片人、编剧等等,书名是《好奇心》(A Curious Mind)。我总是向年轻人推荐这本书,因为我说它讲述了他的职业生涯。这是一个有趣的故事。他是一个很棒的人,做了很多很棒的事情。但他主要是通过不断提问和学习来实现的。你知道,我总是告诉人们,这就是您规划生活的方式。我大约在10年前左右偶然发现了那本书。但是,你知道,您看看那个故事,我建议您的听众阅读那本书。它有275页。但它只是不断提醒您,如果您不断努力学习,您将成为一个强大的引擎。嗯,但是如果您停止学习,您就会被创造。这就是问题所在。所以我从很多来源获取信息。但关键是如何确保您的视野保持开放,而不是被封闭,因为每次您看X、Y和Z时,在现代信息传递技术下,它都会开始将您推向那个角落。
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>> how do you remain a learning machine >> you just you get up early in the morning and I just absorb you know just start reading you know multiple papers multiple news sources uh multiple research papers um and you're just listening out there, you know, you're always listening and and trying to learn. And and by the way, you know, we talk about young kids today. You know, one of the fears I have is the curation of of uh of the way they get fed. The way we all get fed, I shouldn't say it's young people, it's everybody. The way we all get fed through news feeds and the algorithm and stuff narrows your scope as opposed to improve your scope. But I there's a there's a book written by a fellow named Brian Graas, who's a great movie producer, writer, etc. called it a curious mind. I always recommend that to the young kids because I say it talks about his career. It's a fun story. He's a wonderful human being and done wonderful things. But he did it a lot by just asking questions and learning a lot. And you know, I always say to people that's the way way to pattern your life. I ran into that book, you know, 10 years ago or so. But you know, but you look at that story and that I suggest your listeners read that book. It's 275 pages. But it just keeps reminding you that if you keep trying to learn, you'll be a powerful engine. Um, and but if you stop learning, you get created. That's that's the problem. So I I get information from lots of sources. But the key is how do you keep making sure that aperture stays open, doesn't get closed because every time you look at X, Y, and Z, it starts to shove into that corner under the modern meth techniques uh for information delivery.
嗯,我认为这是一个很好的结束点,因为通常,您猜怎么着?我们以给年轻人的建议结束,而您已经给了,看起来您必须阅读那本书才能像您一样保持一台学习机器,而且,您所取得的成就确实令人印象深刻。非常感谢您今天与我们在一起。谢谢您,也感谢您所做的一切,希望您喜欢,期待再次与您交谈。当然。谢谢您。
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>> Well, I think that's a great place to end because normally, guess what? We end with uh you know advice to young people and you you already given it seems like you have to read that book to uh remain a learning machine like you have and uh it's for sure very impressive what you have achieved. So big thanks for being with us today. >> Thank you and thank you for all all you do and hopefully you enjoyed it and uh look forward to talking to you again. >> Absolutely. Thank you.