市场回顾：区域性银行引发的红色星期四

All right. Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market close. We got a red day. 大家好。欢迎回到新一期的市场收盘节目。今天市场一片“红”。

And well, it went red in the middle of the day. I don't think anyone really had a reason for why it went red. 市场在盘中转红。我想没有人真正知道它为什么会变红。

We didn't get a Trump tweet. We didn't get some China stuff. We didn't get some random thing headline that you could say, "Oh, obviously that's why the market's down." 我们没有看到特朗普的推文，也没有关于中国的一些消息，更没有那种能让你说“哦，显然这就是市场下跌的原因”的突发头条。

But we did get something. And it took a little bit of time to figure out what happened. 但我们确实发现了一些情况。花了一点时间才弄清楚发生了什么。

And over the past couple of, well, I would say past honestly 45 minutes, I think I've come to a conclusion on why we're red for the day. 在过去的，嗯，老实说，过去的45分钟里，我想我已经得出了今天市场“红”的原因。

And it looks like we have the reason, but it's hurting the entirety of the market. 看来我们找到了原因，但它正在伤害整个市场。

So, let's just pull this up real quick and look at some of the damage and then we'll get into what's going on. 那么，让我们快速看一下损失情况，然后深入探讨发生了什么。

Robin Hood down 2% on the day. Palunteer down 1%. Tesla down 2%. Nvidia somehow holding green at 180. Robin Hood今天下跌2%，Palantir下跌1%，特斯拉下跌2%。英伟达（Nvidia）不知何故仍保持绿色，股价在180美元。

S&P back down below 660. We were at 668 at one point. So, that's down about 1%. 标普指数（S&P：标准普尔500指数，衡量美国500家大型上市公司股票表现的指数）跌回660点以下。我们曾一度达到668点，所以下跌了约1%。

Grab went below 570. Bought the dip at 577. Bought the dip at 575. Father did that 570 and here we are at 568. Grab跌破570点。在577点买入，在575点买入。现在我们到了568点。

So it is what it is. We're not going to go to Trump. Trump is not speaking about the markets. 所以，情况就是这样。我们不会去看特朗普的讲话。特朗普没有谈论市场。

Trump is speaking about in vitro fertilization. So don't worry about what Trump is saying when he talks about some questions or he takes some Q&A from the audience. 特朗普正在谈论IVF（In vitro fertilization: 体外受精，一种辅助生殖技术）。所以，当他回答一些问题或接受观众问答（Q&A：问答环节，提问和回答问题的环节）时，不必担心他在说什么。

Maybe in 30 minutes, then we'll switch over to him. But the announcement is about in vitro fertilization. 也许30分钟后我们会转到他那里。但目前的公告是关于体外受精的。

I know you might be saying what the hell it's about IVF. Yes, it is about IVF. He's not making any commentary about the markets. 我知道你可能会说这到底和IVF有什么关系。是的，就是关于IVF。他没有对市场发表任何评论。

At least not probably until Q&A. So we'll go to him when we see what Trump says. 至少在问答环节之前可能不会。所以，等特朗普说了什么，我们再转到他那里。

Reddit down about 1.3%. Amazon down 1%. I did buy a little bit more Amazon today as well. Reddit下跌约1.3%。亚马逊下跌1%。我今天也多买了一点亚马逊股票。

PayPal down 3%. Salesforce was up 7%. Now it's down 3%. Apple down 1%. PayPal下跌3%。Salesforce曾上涨7%，现在下跌3%。苹果下跌1%。

Again, all your usual spec suspects are just taking a hit on the day. 再说一次，所有你通常关注的股票今天都受到了打击。

AMKR actually hold held up a little bit. That one's still green. AMKR实际上还撑住了一点。它仍然是绿色的。

Again, this one doesn't really have too much of a multiple. And TSM earnings were good, so that's why that's holding on. 再说一次，这支股票并没有太高的市盈率。台积电（TSM）的财报很好，所以它还在支撑。

But TSM, which crushed earnings, that's down 2% on the day. S&P down 1%. 但财报表现出色的台积电今天下跌了2%。标普指数下跌1%。

And we don't even want to look at Bitcoin and Ethereum. My goodness. 我们甚至不想看比特币和以太坊。天哪。

Bitcoin 107, folks. It was at 112 this morning, $5,000 candle down on Bittycoin. 比特币跌到107,000美元，各位。今天早上还在112,000美元，比特币下跌了5,000美元。

And then Ethereum obviously getting hit as well, 3,800. And as a result, Bitmine, which was at 55 in the morning, is back down to 5134. 然后以太坊（Ethereum）也明显受到打击，跌到3,800美元。结果，Bitmine早上还在55美元，现在又跌回5134美元。

So, what's happening? Why is this happening? And what the hell is going on? 那么，发生了什么？为什么会这样？到底是怎么回事？

Well, to get a little bit of context, we have to go back to March of 2023. 嗯，为了了解一些背景，我们必须回到2023年3月。

区域性银行危机：2023年硅谷银行事件的回响

What happened in March of 2023? Silicon Valley Bank, a regional bank in Silicon Valley, California, collapsed. 2023年3月发生了什么？硅谷银行（Silicon Valley Bank: 一家位于加州硅谷的区域性银行），一家位于加州硅谷的区域性银行（Regional banks: 通常指服务特定地理区域而非全国范围的银行），倒闭了。

Why did they collapse? The Fed raised rates at the highest rate they did in 40 years. 他们为什么倒闭？美联储（Fed: 美国中央银行系统）以40年来最快的速度加息。

Silicon Valley Bank took on, one could argue, some unnecessary risk because rates were low. 可以说，硅谷银行承担了一些不必要的风险，因为当时利率很低。

Rates went up really fast. Silicon Valley Bank unfortunately had to deal with the fact that they issued loans at a way cheaper rate than what rates were currently at. 利率上涨得非常快。硅谷银行不幸地不得不面对这样一个事实：他们发放贷款时的利率远低于当时的现行利率。

And as a result, they ended up getting liquidated. And that created an issue in the broader financial sector. 结果，他们最终被清算。这在更广泛的金融领域造成了一个问题。

Now that issue was contained pretty quickly. A lot of people thought the sky was falling when Silicon Valley Bank collapsed and all the regional banks did get hit as a result of that. 现在这个问题很快得到了控制。很多人认为硅谷银行倒闭时天都要塌了，所有区域性银行都因此受到了冲击。

KRE, by the way, the regional banking index is down 7% on the day. This doesn't move like that. 顺便说一下，KRE（KRE指数: S&P区域性银行ETF指数，衡量美国区域性银行板块表现）区域性银行指数今天下跌了7%。它通常不会这样波动。

And it's reminiscent of what happened back in March of 2023 when one bank ended up saying something that messed up the entire regional banking ecosystem. 这让人想起2023年3月发生的事情，当时一家银行说了一些话，搞乱了整个区域性银行生态系统。

So, what happened today? Zion's Bank and Western Alliance, two regional banks, they came out this morning and they said they had some bad loans. 那么，今天发生了什么？Zions银行和Western Alliance，两家区域性银行，今天早上出来说他们有一些不良贷款。

They had they said they had some bad credit. And as a result of that, saying they have some bad loans, bad credit, and there's some nuances to it. 他们说他们有一些不良信贷。因此，他们说自己有一些不良贷款、不良信贷，这里面有一些细微差别。

One could say it's a charge off, one could say it's because of a legal action. 有人可能会说这是核销（Charge off: 银行认为无法收回的贷款金额），有人可能会说这是因为法律诉讼。

Like, it's not necessarily a structural trend, at least not yet. 比如，这不一定是一个结构性趋势，至少目前还不是。

The most important story in the market has turned away from tech companies and their ability to show good earnings to regional banks, at least for now, because the reason the market is getting hit today is if there is a credit crisis in the country, which is hard to believe, quite frankly, because JP Morgan and City Bank yesterday literally said that credit delinquencies are lower than expected. 目前市场最重要的关注点已经从科技公司及其良好的盈利能力转向了区域性银行，因为今天市场受到冲击的原因是，如果这个国家存在信贷危机——坦率地说，这很难相信，因为摩根大通和花旗银行昨天明确表示，信用违约（Credit delinquencies: 借款人未能按时偿还债务的情况）低于预期。

Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Black Rock, all these guys said credit is fine. 美国银行、摩根士丹利、高盛、贝莱德，所有这些公司都说信贷状况良好。

But then you got two regionals that are saying banks are not fine. 但现在有两家区域性银行说银行状况不佳。

And as a result, that's where we're getting some of the pain in the equity markets today. 结果，这就是我们今天在股票市场（Equity markets: 股票买卖的市场）感受到一些痛苦的原因。

And I think regional banks now are going to be the most important story that we have to keep up with to see how this ends up playing out. 我认为区域性银行现在将成为我们必须关注的最重要的故事，以观察事态如何发展。

We are not going to Trump. So for those saying to listen to Trump, he's talking about in vitro fertilization. 我们不去看特朗普的讲话。所以那些说要听特朗普的人，他正在谈论体外受精。

We don't need to listen to Trump. He's talking about IVF. We will listen to him when he gets to Q&A, but he's not talking about anything around the markets. 我们不需要听特朗普。他正在谈论IVF。等他进入问答环节时我们会听，但他现在没有谈论任何与市场相关的事情。

So don't worry about listening to Trump right now. I thought the meeting or the 3 p.m. announcement was going to be about the stock market. 所以现在不用担心听特朗普。我以为会议或下午3点的公告会是关于股市的。

It's not. It's about solving the population problem that we're having right now. 不是。它是关于解决我们目前面临的人口问题。

市场恐慌与信贷质量担忧

Speaker: Every company with a loan book in the red right now on concerns about credit quality. 发言人：目前，每家拥有不良贷款账簿的公司都因信贷质量担忧而陷入亏损。

Regional banks are plummeting. Alternative asset managers are slumping and Jeff is tanking once again as its name has become increasingly synonymous with the first brand's bankruptcy. 区域性银行正在暴跌。另类资产管理公司正在下滑，Jeff再次暴跌，因为它的名字越来越成为第一个品牌破产的代名词。

Credit concerns at Zions and Western Alliance spooking the entire sector today. Zions和Western Alliance的信贷担忧今天吓坏了整个行业。

Zions revealing in a filing last night that it is filing a lawsuit and taking a provision of $60 million due to what it describes as quote apparent misrepresentations and contractual defaults related to a borrower. Zions昨晚在一份文件中披露，它正在提起诉讼，并计提6000万美元的准备金，原因是它所说的“与借款人相关的明显虚假陈述和合同违约”。

Western Alliance filed its own 8K this morning, saying it doesn't need additional provisions related to its exposure to that borrower, which it had sued back in August, alleging fraud. Western Alliance今天早上提交了自己的8K文件，称其不需要与对该借款人的风险敞口相关的额外准备金，该借款人曾于8月被其起诉，指控欺诈。

The bank believes collateral coverage will cause it to avoid losses, but Western Alliance also had exposure to first brands, and you can see what those stocks are doing. 该银行认为抵押品覆盖将使其避免损失，但Western Alliance也对第一品牌有风险敞口，你可以看到这些股票的表现。

They're down double-digit percentages. Bank of California is another name to watch today. 它们下跌了两位数。加州银行是今天另一个值得关注的名字。

As analysts point out, it too has exposure to the same borrower. 正如分析师指出的，它也对同一借款人有风险敞口。

Although its exposure is minimal and senior in the capital structure, still those shares down 8% right now. 尽管其风险敞口很小，并且在资本结构中处于优先地位，但这些股票目前仍下跌8%。

Even though exposure totally for each of Zion's Western Alliance and Bank of California stands at under 2% relative to their respective tangible common equity. 尽管Zions、Western Alliance和加州银行各自的总风险敞口相对于其有形普通股本都低于2%。

The markets are on high alert about cracks in the credit markets following the bankruptcies of those two auto companies last month that sent private credit stocks roaring, which we're seeing kind of a rinse and repeat of today. 上个月两家汽车公司破产，导致私人信贷股票暴涨，市场对信贷市场出现裂缝高度警惕，今天我们看到类似的情况再次上演。

Scott. 斯科特。

Amit Kukreja: 市场反应过度？

Amit Kukreja: All right, Leslie. Thank. So, in a nutshell, what did she say for those that just want to get the pure summary of it? Amit Kukreja: 好的，莱斯利。谢谢。那么，对于那些只想得到纯粹总结的人来说，她说了什么？

Two banks this morning, Western Alliance and Zions reported that they have some bad credit. Is this a structural problem in the regional banking industry? 今天早上，Western Alliance和Zions两家银行报告说他们有一些不良信贷。这是区域性银行业的一个结构性问题吗？

I don't know. No one knows. But if you take a look at these stocks on the day, I mean, it's pretty disgusting. 我不知道。没人知道。但如果你看看这些股票今天的表现，我的意思是，相当令人作呕。

It is a full-on wipeout on some of these banks, and a lot of these banks are down even worse than when the screenshot was taken. 其中一些银行完全被抹杀，很多银行的跌幅甚至比截图时还要糟糕。

And the reason I think the broader market is down is because if there is the potential of a credit risk in this country, which again, I don't want to be too hyperbolic and say that's the case because we got a lot of bank earnings from the most important banks in the world and they said that there's not that type of risk, but then again, you know, maybe there is in the regionals. 我认为大盘下跌的原因是，如果这个国家存在信贷风险的可能性——我不想过于夸张地说就是这样，因为我们从世界上最重要的银行那里得到了很多银行财报，他们说不存在那种风险，但话又说回来，你知道，区域性银行可能存在这种风险。

So, we're going to have to really keep a keep an eye on it. But if there is, then yeah, I mean, people would rather sell first and and investigate later versus hold on to their stocks assuming that it's a nothing burger. 所以，我们真的必须密切关注它。但如果真的有，那么，人们宁愿先卖出，然后再调查，而不是抱着股票，认为这没什么大不了的。

I mean, that's just kind of the psychology of the market. But it doesn't necessarily seem like that is the the biggest structural issue that we're not announcing a war with China. 我的意思是，这只是市场心理。但这似乎不像是最大的结构性问题，我们并没有宣布对中国开战。

Two banks said they had some bad loans and so and so I I I I don't know. I feel like it's a little bit overdone. 两家银行说他们有一些不良贷款，所以我不知道。我觉得有点反应过度了。

I mean, back in April, we were in extreme fear. We have not been in extreme fear since April. 我的意思是，早在四月份，我们就处于极度恐惧之中。自四月以来，我们一直没有处于极度恐惧之中。

In April, the S&P 500 was at 5,000 and we were at extreme fear. We are 3% away from all-time highs and now we're at extreme fear. 四月份，标普500指数在5000点，我们处于极度恐惧之中。我们距离历史高点只有3%，现在却处于极度恐惧之中。

I I I don't know if that makes any sense, but nonetheless, the fear and greed index is telling you it's a buy the dip. 我不知道这是否有道理，但无论如何，恐惧与贪婪指数告诉你现在是“逢低买入”的时候。

But once again, it feels a little bit more like ALOS are taking advantage of this. 但再一次，感觉更像是自动交易系统（ALOS）正在利用这一点。

Also are selling. You know, you you automatically get people getting scared of a brand a bank run or a credit crisis. 也在抛售。你知道，人们会自动地因为银行挤兑或信贷危机而感到恐慌。

They start selling. So, it piles on. Stop losses get hit, margin calls, etc. 他们开始抛售。所以，这会加剧。止损被触发，追加保证金通知等等。

It's not as bad as it was on Friday with that 3% draw down. But, you know, S&P down .065% on the day is reasonable, especially given the recovery from 647 on the S&P. 这不像周五那样糟糕，当时下跌了3%。但是，你知道，标普指数今天下跌0.065%是合理的，特别是考虑到它从647点反弹。

Obviously, just take just just taking a let down a lot of stocks with you. 显然，这只是带着很多股票一起下跌。

And that's why I bought some of my favorite companies. I bought more Grab. 这就是我买入一些我最喜欢的公司的原因。我买了更多Grab。

I mean, look, if you're going to give it to me below 580, I'm going to buy that. 我的意思是，如果你以低于580美元的价格给我，我就会买。

If you're going to give me Amazon below 250, I'm going to buy that. 如果你以低于250美元的价格给我亚马逊，我就会买。

Especially if I think the regional banking crisis is not really a crisis. It's being perceived as a crisis. 特别是如果我认为区域性银行危机并非真正的危机。它只是被视为一场危机。

And any other regional banks that come out over the next few weeks and they announce their earnings and they don't have credit issues, I think that reverses it. 如果未来几周内其他区域性银行公布财报时没有信贷问题，我认为这会扭转局面。

And as a result, I don't think it would be the biggest deal in the world. 因此，我认为这不会是世界上最严重的问题。

But nonetheless, we're going to have to see how this plays out. Now, the VIX is spiking on this. 但无论如何，我们都得看看事态如何发展。现在，VIX（VIX指数: 芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数，衡量市场对未来30天波动性的预期）指数因此飙升。

As a result, VIX, you can see right there, up about 20% on the day, 2440 on the VIX. 结果，VIX指数今天上涨了大约20%，达到2440点。

We, this is the second time we've had a VIX spike of over 20% in the past week. 这是过去一周内VIX指数第二次飙升超过20%。

Once was on Friday and once was on today because of the regional banks today. 一次是周五，另一次是今天，因为区域性银行的问题。

Friday was the Trump China tweet. And as a result, you're having some pain. 周五是特朗普关于中国的推文。结果，你感受到了一些痛苦。

Now, if you are in a high beta stock like Rare Earth, you are down badly today. 现在，如果你持有像稀土这样的高贝塔股票（High beta stock: 波动性高于市场整体的股票），你今天跌得很惨。

TMQ down 16%, CRML down 14. Lithium America is down 22, MP down six, US down 15% on the day. TMQ下跌16%，CRML下跌14%。美国锂业下跌22%，MP下跌6%，US今天下跌15%。

If you are in a Bitcoin, Bitcoin miner turn data center, you're getting wrecked. 如果你投资了比特币，比特币矿工（Bitcoin miner: 通过计算解决加密难题以获取比特币的实体或个人）转型的数据中心（Data center: 集中存放计算机服务器和网络设备的设施），你将遭受重创。

I down nine, Cipher down 10, CleanSpark down 14, Wolf down 10, Hive down 14, Bitform down almost 20, Marathon down 11, Riot down 11, Galaxy down five. I下跌9%，Cipher下跌10%，CleanSpark下跌14%，Wolf下跌10%，Hive下跌14%，Bitform下跌近20%，Marathon下跌11%，Riot下跌11%，Galaxy下跌5%。

Also, if you're in some nuclear stocks today, like the OLAs of the world, you are getting hit along with the quantum stocks of the world, D-Wave right there down about 10%. 此外，如果你今天持有某些核能股票，比如全球的OLA公司，你也会受到冲击，还有全球的量子股票，D-Wave下跌了大约10%。

Is this a structural problem with all these high beta stocks and the momentum is gone and they are ready to really get, you know, fall to a floor. 这是否是所有这些高贝塔股票的结构性问题，它们的上涨势头已经消失，准备真正跌到底部？

I don't know. But on a day like this, momentum is definitely not on their side. 我不知道。但在像今天这样的日子里，上涨势头肯定不在它们这边。

And the question simply becomes, are there enough people to come in and buy the dip or is this going to be an issue that lasts for a longer time? 问题很简单，是否有足够的人进来逢低买入，还是这个问题会持续更长时间？

We're going to find out. But that's why we're in pain, folks. That is why we're in pain. It's the regionals. 我们会知道的。但这就是我们痛苦的原因，各位。这就是我们痛苦的原因。是区域性银行的问题。

I really like I I mean I And we should have seen this in the morning, but I I just didn't pay attention to the Zion's earnings because we had so many other things going on. 我真的很喜欢，我的意思是，我们早上就应该看到这一点，但我只是没有关注Zions的财报，因为我们还有很多其他事情要处理。

And then by about 1 p.m. today, market started taking a hit. 然后到今天下午1点左右，市场开始受到冲击。

And like when you look into like, oh, regionals didn't report the best uh quality of credit. 当你深入研究时，你会发现，哦，区域性银行报告的信贷质量不是最好的。

And as a result, that's why we're taking some pain. For those that wanted to look at Trump, this is a 20 second clip of what he's going to be talking about for the next hour. 结果，这就是我们遭受一些痛苦的原因。对于那些想看特朗普的人，这是他接下来一个小时要讲内容的20秒片段。

特朗普关于体外受精的声明

Trump: We're here today to announce a historic victory for American women, mothers, and families with the actions I will outline this afternoon will dramatically slash the cost of IVF. 特朗普：我们今天在这里宣布美国女性、母亲和家庭的历史性胜利，我今天下午将概述的行动将大幅削减IVF的成本。

And the treatment and uh many of the most common fertility drugs for countless millions of Americans, prices are going way down, way, way down. 对于数百万美国人来说，治疗以及许多最常见的生育药物的价格将大幅下降，大幅下降。

Amit Kukreja: So, it's about IVF. It's not about the banks yet. Amit Kukreja: 所以，这是关于IVF的。还不是关于银行。

We will go to Trump if he does Q&A and we'll see if he talks about China, the banks or anything else, but right now it's about IVF. 如果特朗普进行问答，我们会转到他那里，看看他是否谈论中国、银行或其他任何事情，但现在是关于IVF的。

And you know, actually when it was announced by like the New York Times and Bloomberg that, hey, Trump's going to be talking about IVF and that's it. 你知道，实际上当《纽约时报》和彭博社宣布，嘿，特朗普将谈论IVF，仅此而已时。

Markets actually went up. If anyone noticed, markets started going up because everyone was like, "Oh, cool. It's about IVF. It's not really about, you know, some it's he's not like going to make an Oval Office address about the issues going on with China that would spook out the markets. 市场实际上上涨了。如果有人注意到，市场开始上涨，因为每个人都觉得，“哦，太好了。是关于IVF的。这并不是真的关于，你知道，他不会在椭圆形办公室就与中国有关的问题发表讲话，那会吓坏市场。

It's about IVF. No one cares." And then an hour later, it's like, "Wait a second. These regionals are not doing that good." 是关于IVF的。没人关心。”然后一个小时后，就变成了，“等等。这些区域性银行表现不佳。”

And this is why it's so fun covering the markets because one thing or another is going to try to put pieces to the puzzle of the story of understanding every day what is happening. 这就是为什么报道市场如此有趣，因为总会有这样那样的事情试图拼凑出每天正在发生的故事的拼图。

And uh today you've got regional banks that are creating the issue. 而今天，是区域性银行制造了问题。

Put in the chat if you bought the dip, if you took some profits, let me know what you did. 如果你逢低买入，或者获利了结，请在聊天中告诉我你做了什么。

Did you get Robin Digest? Yes, I got Robin Digest finally. 你收到Robin Digest了吗？是的，我终于收到了Robin Digest。

That is the AI uh suite of products from Robin Hood explaining why stocks are up or down on individual tickers. 那是Robinhood的AI产品套件，解释了为什么个别股票会上涨或下跌。

I literally got it 10 minutes ago and it's super smooth, dude. It is super smooth. 我真的是10分钟前才拿到，它超级流畅，伙计。它超级流畅。

So, I'm loving it. I've been playing around with it for a couple minutes, but I think they rolled it out to a lot more people, so people have that. 所以我很喜欢。我玩了几分钟，但我想他们已经向更多人推出了，所以大家都有了。

Chris will be on in about 10 minutes. We'll be talking a lot about macro, what's going on in the regional banks. Chris将在大约10分钟后加入。我们将大量讨论宏观经济，以及区域性银行正在发生的事情。

Chris was actually one of the first people who helped me understand regional banks back in March of 2023 when we both bought call debit spreads on Truist after it fell to an 11-year low. Chris实际上是2023年3月第一批帮助我理解区域性银行的人之一，当时Truist跌至11年低点后，我们都买入了Truist的看涨借方价差（Call debit spreads: 一种期权策略，通过买入和卖出不同行权价的看涨期权来限制风险和收益）。

So, I'm sure he has some opinions on that. Also in the midst of these regional banks getting hit the tenure we are finally below 4% which is actually pretty bullish and at the same time as we are above 4%. 所以我相信他对此有一些看法。此外，在这些区域性银行受到冲击的同时，十年期国债（Tenure: 美国财政部发行的期限为十年的政府债券）收益率终于跌破4%，这实际上是相当看涨（Bullish: 预期市场或资产价格上涨）的，同时我们又高于4%。

Gold has hit a new all-time high at 4,300 which is kind of crazy. 黄金创下4300美元的历史新高，这有点疯狂。

So you got gold at 4,300. I mean gold's been going up like 3% every day like that. 所以黄金达到了4300美元。我的意思是黄金每天都上涨3%左右。

That's not supposed to happen with gold. But then you also have the tenure coming down, which is good because, you know, we need the 10-year to come down. 黄金不应该这样。但同时十年期国债收益率也在下降，这是好事，因为我们需要十年期国债收益率下降。

It's really important for the 10-year to bring down the cost of borrowing in this country. 十年期国债收益率下降对于降低这个国家的借贷成本非常重要。

It's just, you know, how do you make a narrative out of it that makes sense? I don't really know. 只是，你知道，你如何从中构建一个有意义的叙述？我真的不知道。

And we're going to have to get a little bit more data to see how this plays out. 我们还需要更多数据才能看出事态如何发展。

On top of that, we have IBKR earnings after the bell. 除此之外，收盘后我们还有IBKR（盈透证券: 一家全球性的电子经纪商）的财报。

I'll put a poll right here in the chat on do you think we're going to get a on uh Schwab had a great earnings, so IBKR will probably have a good earnings. 我会在聊天中放一个投票，问你们觉得我们是否会看到，嗯，嘉信理财（Schwab：一家大型金融服务公司）的财报很棒，所以IBKR的财报可能也会不错。

It's just going to be a question of if the stock also reacts on those earnings. 这只是一个问题，即股票是否也会对这些财报做出反应。

All right, folks. Here we go. Thank you all for being here. Another day, another time to analyze what goes on in the global capital equity markets. 好的，各位。我们开始吧。感谢大家的到来。又是一天，又一次分析全球资本股票市场发生的事情。

And today, the story is about regional banks. It is Thursday, October 16th, 4 p.m. The stock market is officially closed. 今天，故事的主角是区域性银行。今天是10月16日星期四，下午4点。股市正式收盘。

IBKR财报表现亮眼，但金融科技股受区域性银行影响

All right, we're done for the day. We are done for the day. I see a lot of people saying I bought IBKR. 好的，我们今天就到这里。我们今天的工作结束了。我看到很多人说他们买了IBKR。

I bought some Hood. I bought some Weeble. I bought uh BMR, bought Grab, bought Sofi. 我买了一些Hood。我买了一些Weeble。我买了BMR，买了Grab，买了SoFi。

SoFi got all the way down to 2662. I see a couple people saying I sold gold. SoFi一路跌到2662。我看到有几个人说他们卖了黄金。

Other people saying I sold some of my VIX calls. I see Lemonade. I see BMR, I see Rocket Lab. 其他人说我卖出了一些VIX看涨期权。我看到了Lemonade。我看到了BMR，我看到了Rocket Lab。

I mean, everything was down round about at least 2 to 3% today. On the higher side, 5 to 7%. 我的意思是，今天所有东西至少都下跌了2%到3%。高一点的，下跌了5%到7%。

So, I see a decent chunk of people that took advantage of those dips, but it looks like more people bought. 所以，我看到相当一部分人利用了这些下跌，但看起来更多人选择了买入。

Nvidia closed the day 1.13%. Nvidia actually holding on to its green. 英伟达今天收盘上涨1.13%。英伟达实际上保持了上涨。

Tesla down below 430. That's down about 1.4%. Pound share down half a percent. 特斯拉跌破430美元，下跌约1.4%。Pound share下跌0.5%。

Robin Hood, Robin Hood almost lost 130. Got pretty damn close. Robinhood，Robinhood差点跌破130美元。非常接近了。

If Bitcoin takes another wick down, I mean, Robinet's probably going to lose 130. 如果比特币再来一次下跌，我的意思是，Robinet可能会跌破130美元。

That's just the honest truth about it. And I get more excited in the 120. 这只是实话实说。我在120美元时会更兴奋。

So, let's see what happens. But Robin Hoodet right here, 131, 138, that's down about 2%. 所以，让我们看看会发生什么。但Robinhood现在是131.138美元，下跌了大约2%。

AMD down 2% of the day. SoFi, now look, oh, let me address this real quick. AMD今天下跌2%。SoFi，现在看，哦，让我快速解决这个问题。

A lot of people are saying, so is this bearish SoFi because the regional banks are having some credit issues. 很多人都在问，区域性银行出现信贷问题，这对SoFi来说是利空吗？

My perspective is hell no because SoFi A is not a regional bank. B, SoFi's credit writing is phenomenal. 我的看法是绝对不是，因为SoFi首先不是一家区域性银行。其次，SoFi的信贷承销非常出色。

I mean, if you've just done any research on their credit underwriting, it is not I mean, they are they do not take the process of credit underwriting lightly. 我的意思是，如果你对他们的信贷承销做过任何研究，你会发现他们并非，我的意思是，他们绝不轻视信贷承销过程。

I mean, they really focus hard on making sure they give out good loans. 我的意思是，他们真的非常努力地确保发放优质贷款。

So, I don't think this is a sell SoFi news. Will the ALG go sell SoFi? 所以，我不认为这是卖出SoFi的消息。算法（ALG）会去卖SoFi吗？

Yeah, because it's a bank, but I think that should create a good opportunity. 是的，因为它是一家银行，但我认为这应该会创造一个好机会。

If we get a stupid dip on SoFi, I will be a buyer as well because I just don't think that would be justified. 如果SoFi出现一次愚蠢的下跌，我也会买入，因为我认为那是不合理的。

Google right here 252. Google actually closing above 250 was bullish. 谷歌在这里是252美元。谷歌收盘高于250美元是看涨的。

Grab right there 576. Redd it down 1%. Amazon down half a percent. Meta down 1%. Grab在那里是576美元。Reddit下跌1%。亚马逊下跌0.5%。Meta下跌1%。

Salesforce still held 4% of the day. PayPal down 3%. And then ELF up about 1.3% on the day. Salesforce今天仍上涨4%。PayPal下跌3%。然后ELF今天上涨约1.3%。

Apploven that one held on to the 600. Circle down 5%. Anything Bitcoin related kind of took a hit. AppLovin守住了600美元。Circle下跌5%。任何与比特币相关的都受到了打击。

Coinbase right there at 330 that was down 2%. Micro strategy are we below 300? Coinbase在330美元，下跌2%。MicroStrategy我们跌破300美元了吗？

We are at wow 284 on Micro Strategy. Ugly, but that's what you got for MSTR. 我们在MicroStrategy上是284美元。很糟糕，但这就是MSTR的情况。

Okay, IBKR. I think the earnings are out. Let's pull that up. 好的，IBKR。我想财报已经出来了。我们来看看。

We are going to pull up Weeble so we can see the after hours move on this. 我们将打开Weeble，这样我们就可以看到这支股票盘后的走势。

Okay, Weeble is being stupid. So, we'll go back to Legend IBKR. I think we got a pump. 好的，Weeble有点问题。所以，我们回到Legend IBKR。我想我们涨了。

Do we have a pump? Do we have a pump? We do have a pump. We do have a pump. 我们涨了吗？我们涨了吗？我们确实涨了。我们确实涨了。

It's not up 2% after hours. It's more up 4%, but we are up. 盘后不是上涨2%。是上涨了4%左右，但我们确实上涨了。

Looks like we got a double beat. Looks like we got a double beat of 3% after hours on IBKR. 看起来我们取得了双重超预期。IBKR盘后似乎实现了3%的双重超预期。

Uh, let me see if I can get the exact earnings in a second and we'll see. 嗯，让我看看能不能马上拿到确切的财报数据，然后我们再看。

What did you guys say on the chat? 60% of you said pump. 60% of you said pump for IBKR. 你们在聊天中说了什么？60%的人说会涨。60%的人说IBKR会涨。

Also, CSX is reporting earnings today after ours. 此外，CSX今天盘后也公布财报。

Wow, you got a double beat. 6% beat across the board. 57 cents versus 54. 哇，你获得了双重超预期。全面超出6%。57美分对54美分。

That's an EPS（每股收益: 公司每股普通股的净利润） beat. Uh, EPS is up 40% year-over-year. 那是每股收益超预期。嗯，每股收益同比增长40%。

Revenues（营收: 公司在特定时期内通过销售商品或服务获得的收入） up 21% year-over-year. 1.61 61 billion versus 1.52 billion for IBKR. 营收同比增长21%。IBKR的营收为16.1亿美元，而预期为15.2亿美元。

I mean, you can't be too upset about that. Schwab also had a phenomenal earnings today. 我的意思是，你不能对此太沮丧。嘉信理财今天也有一个惊人的财报。

By the way, Schwab is getting ready to start unveiling more crypto products based on what they talked about today. 顺便说一句，根据他们今天谈论的内容，嘉信理财正准备开始推出更多加密货币产品。

But IBKR not doing the worst. And that one continues to Oh, no. Now it's losing some of it. 但IBKR表现不差。而且它继续，哦不。现在它正在失去一些涨幅。

It was green. Is it losing it? It's still up 1% after hours, but you can see that red candle right there from 71 all the way back down to 60. 它曾是绿色的。它在下跌吗？盘后仍然上涨1%，但你可以看到那根红色蜡烛，从71美元一直跌回60美元。

I mean, look, a one or two% move isn't even that volatile in the first place, but it is losing a bit of its momentum. 我的意思是，看，一两个百分点的波动本来就不算剧烈，但它确实失去了一些势头。

Uh, Austin says, "Net interest income increased 21% to 967 million on stronger securities, lending activity, and higher average customer margin loans, and customer credit balance." 奥斯汀说：“净利息收入（Net interest income: 银行或金融机构从其资产（如贷款）赚取的利息与向其负债（如存款）支付的利息之间的差额）增长21%至9.67亿美元，得益于更强劲的证券、贷款活动以及更高的平均客户保证金贷款（Margin loans: 经纪商向投资者提供的以证券作抵押的贷款）和客户信贷余额（Customer credit balance: 客户在金融机构持有的账户数量）。”

Let's see if IBKR actually put out the entire letter on their website. 我们看看IBKR是否真的在他们的网站上发布了完整的信函。

Um, do we have it? No, we don't have it yet. Okay. So, once I get it, we'll get through all of it. 嗯，我们有吗？不，我们还没有。好的。所以，一旦我拿到，我们就会全部过一遍。

Oh, no. I got it. I got it. I should have it. This is it. Yep. Here we go. 哦，不。我拿到了。我拿到了。我应该有。就是这个。是的。我们开始吧。

All right. Commission revenue 23% to 537 million. Net interest income 967 million. 好的。佣金收入增长23%至5.37亿美元。净利息收入9.67亿美元。

Other fees down 66 million. Uh general admin of expenses down 60%. That's actually really good. 其他费用下降6600万美元。嗯，一般管理费用下降60%。这实际上非常好。

They're taking their expenses down pretty dramatically. Customer accounts 32% increase. 他们正在大幅削减开支。客户账户（Customer accounts: 客户在金融机构持有的账户数量）增长32%。

Equity（股本: 公司所有者权益，包括股本和留存收益） 40% increase. DARTs（日均收入交易量: 衡量经纪商平台每日平均交易活动的指标） daily active daily average revenue trades that's up 34%. That's incredible. 股本增长40%。日均收入交易量（DARTs）增长34%。这太不可思议了。

3.6 million trades a day. Customer margin loans 39%. 每天360万笔交易。客户保证金贷款增长39%。

IBKR is loaning out 77 billion to customers on margin 40% year-over-year. IBKR向客户发放了770亿美元的保证金贷款，同比增长40%。

I mean that's similar to Robin Hood and I think Schwab to an extent. 我的意思是，这在某种程度上类似于Robinhood和嘉信理财。

Uh you know obviously that means people are risk as they're borrowing money to buy equities but you can see those margin loans are up and then overall revenue is up 21% year-over-year. 嗯，你知道，这显然意味着人们在承担风险，因为他们借钱购买股票，但你可以看到保证金贷款增加了，然后总收入同比增长了21%。

So that's what we got with IBKR. Now all the I be care back to going green. 这就是IBKR的情况。现在所有IBKR又回到了上涨状态。

All of the fintech（金融科技: 运用科技改进或自动化金融服务的行业） today took a little bit of a hit uh unfortunately because of the because of the uh regional bank stuff. 不幸的是，今天所有的金融科技公司都受到了一点冲击，嗯，因为区域性银行的事情。

So CLA right here down about 5.5%. Square XYZ that one took a hit. 所以CLA在这里下跌了大约5.5%。Square XYZ受到了冲击。

A firm took a Square right there down about 2.4%. Affirm was down about 3% 5.4% on Affirm. Affirm在那里下跌了约2.4%。Affirm下跌了约3%，Affirm的跌幅为5.4%。

So this regional bank issue again I don't know how big of a deal it's going to be. 所以这个区域性银行问题，我再次强调，我不知道它会造成多大的影响。

Look at Truis down 5% on the day. The overall index took a nasty hit. 看看Truist今天下跌了5%。整体指数受到了严重打击。

Kerry（KRE指数: S&P区域性银行ETF指数，衡量美国区域性银行板块表现） right there down almost 7%. Zions, which was one of the main culprits, that one down 13% on the day. KRE指数在那里下跌了近7%。Zions，作为主要罪魁祸首之一，今天下跌了13%。

And then Western Alliance Bank, that one down 8%. We needed to get a good earnings for Q3. 然后是Western Alliance Bank，下跌了8%。我们需要第三季度有一个好的财报。

And so far, we've got a good earnings. It's just two of these regional banks have not been the best on earnings. 到目前为止，我们已经有了一个不错的财报。只是其中两家区域性银行的财报表现不佳。

And it seems like that's what's creating some pain as markets are very close to all-time highs. 而且似乎这就是造成一些痛苦的原因，因为市场非常接近历史高点。

CSX that is green after hours as well. It looks like we've got those earnings. CSX盘后也上涨了。看起来我们已经拿到了财报。

Um adjusted EPS（调整后每股收益: 排除一次性或非经常性项目后的每股收益） of 44 cents. No, miss. 嗯，调整后每股收益44美分。不，没有不及预期。

Uh, and then revenue is a beat. Okay, so they looks like they missed on EPS. They beat on revenue. 嗯，然后营收超预期。好的，所以他们看起来是每股收益不及预期，但营收超预期。

I don't even know what CSX is to be honest. Oh, no, they beat on the top and bottom. 老实说，我甚至不知道CSX是什么。哦，不，他们营收和利润都超预期了。

Okay, so they beat by 5% on EPS. They beat on revenue. CSX, what is this company? 好的，所以他们每股收益超预期5%。营收超预期。CSX，这是什么公司？

Tra uh, American Holding Company focused on rail, transportation, and real estate in North America. 一家专注于北美铁路、运输和房地产的美国控股公司。

Market cap（市值: 公司流通股总价值） of 67 billion. 市值670亿美元。

Uh, dividend（股息: 公司向股东支付的利润份额） of 1.4%. Year-to date. This stock is up about 11.3%. 嗯，股息1.4%。今年迄今。这支股票上涨了大约11.3%。

So definitely not a small company, but you do have a beat on the top and the bottom for these guys. 所以这绝对不是一家小公司，但这些公司的营收和利润都超预期了。

And it looks like the stock is reacting favorably. Let's pull up some coverage on the and we will keep going from there. 而且看起来股票反应良好。让我们调出一些相关报道，然后我们继续。

Let's pull this up and then we got some updates on what Trump is saying. We'll see what we've got. 我们把这个调出来，然后我们有一些关于特朗普最新言论的更新。我们看看有什么。

Frank Holland: CSX财报分析

Reporter: Yeah, John, as you mentioned, stocks moving higher right now after revenues that were in line, but a beat on EPS. 记者：是的，约翰，正如你所说，在营收符合预期但每股收益超预期之后，股票现在正在走高。

The estimate was 42 cents a share. It came out at 44 cents a share. We're looking deeper in the report, though. 预期是每股42美分。实际公布是每股44美分。不过，我们正在深入研究报告。

When you look at the company's merchandise segment, that's where they generate almost 2/3 of revenue. 当你查看公司的商品部门时，你会发现那里产生了近三分之二的营收。

The revenues there were essentially flat. The company had promised volume growth throughout the year. 那里的营收基本持平。公司曾承诺全年实现销量增长。

We actually saw the volume in the in the merchandise segment flat again. But overall volumes for the company were down 2%. 我们实际上看到商品部门的销量再次持平。但公司整体销量下降了2%。

That's going to be something very important for the new CEO to to deal with in this company. 这将是新任首席执行官在这家公司需要处理的非常重要的事情。

Uh he actually put out a statement saying that the company saw some strength in its intermodal volume（多式联运量: 结合多种运输方式（如铁路、公路、海运）的货物运输量）. 他实际上发表了一份声明，称公司在多式联运量方面表现出一些优势。

That was something that we actually talked about just a short time ago on closing bell. 这是我们不久前在收盘钟声节目中讨论过的事情。

The fact that the company expected to see strength in interotal following its partnership with BNSF, the West Coast Rail also expected to get some volumes from JB Hunt that's also moving much higher right now. 该公司预计在与BNSF合作后，多式联运量将出现强劲增长，西海岸铁路也预计将从JB Hunt获得一些运量，目前其运量也在大幅增长。

Uh but again, shares of CSX up about 2 and a half% after revenues there were in line and a beat on EPS. 但再次强调，CSX的股价上涨了约2.5%，此前其营收符合预期，每股收益超出预期。

The strength really came from its container shipping business. All right, so CSX and IBKR, I mean, they did their thing in terms of delivering us good earnings. 其强劲表现主要来自集装箱运输业务。好的，CSX和IBKR，我的意思是，它们在为我们带来良好财报方面做得很好。

It's just these freaking regional banks. They did not have the best earnings today. 只是这些该死的区域性银行。它们今天的财报表现不佳。

And as a result, you're not getting some pain. Uh, Terowolf announces prices of 3.2 billion of senior secured notes（高级担保票据: 一种有抵押的债务工具，在公司破产时享有优先受偿权） and proceeds. 结果，你感受到了痛苦。嗯，Terowolf宣布发行32亿美元的高级担保票据及收益。

I don't think that's new dilution（稀释: 新股发行导致现有股东每股收益和所有权比例下降）, right? That's older dilution. 我不认为那是新的稀释，对吧？那是旧的稀释。

Terwolf still is down on the day. Again, all the Bitcoin miners got hit pretty bad today. Terwolf今天仍然下跌。再说一次，所有比特币矿工今天都受到了相当大的冲击。

Okay, Terolf up a little bit after hours, but not seeing too much of an impact from that news. 好的，Terolf盘后小幅上涨，但没有看到那条新闻产生太大影响。

Trump is not talking right now. There's some other lady in the IVF conference talking. 特朗普现在没有讲话。IVF会议上还有另一位女士在讲话。

Um, Trump probably will get to Q&A soon, but there's someone else right now talking about IVF. 嗯，特朗普可能很快就会进入问答环节，但现在有其他人正在谈论IVF。

I really didn't think the announcement today was going to be about IVF. 我真的不认为今天的公告会是关于IVF的。

I thought I was going to have to do something with China, but it ended up being about fertility and uh the population crisis, which look, it's a legit concern. 我以为会和中国有关，但结果是关于生育和人口危机，这确实是一个合理的问题。

It's just, you know, when regionals hit the bed, everyone's a little worried about something else. 只是，你知道，当区域性银行出问题时，每个人都会有点担心其他事情。

But UNH right there also down about 1.6% on the day. 但UNH今天也下跌了大约1.6%。

保证金贷款与市场风险

IBKR and Hood both have the similar uh margin book, but their IBKR is 77 billion. IBKR和Robinhood都有类似的保证金账簿，但IBKR的保证金账簿是770亿美元。

Hood is 10 billion. Yeah, Hood is I think now almost 12 billion. Robinhood是100亿美元。是的，Robinhood现在我想是近120亿美元。

So IBKR vast, you know, a quintupling of Hood's margin book and they make a lot more money off of it. 所以IBKR的规模巨大，你知道，是Robinhood保证金账簿的五倍，他们从中赚取更多的钱。

But the point is all the brokerages are giving out lots of margin because comp, you know, consumers are willing to pay for margin and as rates come down, the cost of borrowing capital gets cheaper. 但重点是，所有券商都在发放大量保证金，因为消费者愿意支付保证金，而且随着利率下降，借贷资本的成本也变得更便宜。

So, you know, people are willing to borrow more, it's just when the market crashes, if the market crashes, you know, and you can't pay back your margin load, that's when things can get ugly. 所以，你知道，人们愿意借更多钱，只是当市场崩盘时，如果市场崩盘，你知道，你无法偿还你的保证金贷款，那时情况就会变得很糟糕。

So that is the risk that is there right now. Now, Corey was up on the day. 所以这就是目前存在的风险。现在，Corey今天上涨了。

If we get to some other headlines, we'll see what Trump's talking about in a bit. 如果我们看到其他头条新闻，我们稍后会看看特朗普在说什么。

Coreweee was up 1.4% of the day. The reason Coree was up is because uh XAI is going to be leasing a $20 billion package to own Nvidia GPUs. Coreweee今天上涨了1.4%。Coreweee上涨的原因是XAI将租赁价值200亿美元的Nvidia GPU。

This was actually announced a couple days ago and it was kind of confirmed today. 这实际上是几天前宣布的，今天得到了某种程度的证实。

Coree is estimated to be one of the core companies that's going to be helping XAI lease a bunch a bunch of those GPUs potentially also in Texas. Coree被认为是核心公司之一，将帮助XAI租赁大量GPU，可能也在德克萨斯州。

And as a result, Coree ended up going green on the day. Nabius also got a boost right when that announcement came out. 结果，Coree今天收涨。Nabius也在公告发布后立即获得了提振。

Nabius could not end red on the day. Got all the way up to 130. Closed at 123, but all the data center companies outside of the Bitcoin miners got a bit of a boost once that announcement did come out. Nabius今天未能收跌。一度涨到130美元，收盘123美元，但一旦该公告发布，所有非比特币矿工的数据中心公司都获得了一点提振。

So, that's what we've got. Open door, how did that do on the day? 所以，这就是我们所拥有的。OpenDoor，今天表现如何？

Open 708, the meme stock ETF. This one took a hit, down 8% on the day, back under $10. Open 708，这只迷因股票ETF。它受到了冲击，今天下跌8%，跌回10美元以下。

In terms of the most traded options in the stock market today, Nvidia and Tesla were number one and two. 就今天股市交易量最大的期权而言，英伟达和特斯拉位居第一和第二。

Then you had iBit, AMD, Amazon, Palenteer, Apple, Micro Strategy, Regetti, a lot of the quantum stocks down in the day. 然后是iBit、AMD、亚马逊、Palantir、苹果、MicroStrategy、Rigetti，许多量子股票今天都下跌了。

So Sofi, Google, Intel, Micron, Oracle, Marathon, Cory, Beyond Meat, TSM, Meta, and Openor. 还有SoFi、谷歌、英特尔、美光、甲骨文、Marathon、Corey、Beyond Meat、台积电、Meta和OpenDoor。

I'm surprised none of the regional banks actually made it into the top 20. 我惊讶的是，没有一家区域性银行真正进入前20名。

Uh so, you know, maybe the concerns weren't enough to get the options market super excited on buying puts on regional banks. 嗯，所以，你知道，也许这些担忧不足以让期权市场对购买区域性银行的看跌期权感到超级兴奋。

But nonetheless, that is now a new concern that a lot of us are going to have to look into. 但无论如何，这现在是许多人必须关注的新问题。

And that's what you got. Did you buy more Grab? Yes, I bought more Grab today. 这就是你得到的。你买了更多Grab吗？是的，我今天买了更多Grab。

Bought a little bit more Amazon. I mean, look, I didn't buy a crazy amount of the dip today. 又买了一点亚马逊。我的意思是，看，我今天没有疯狂地逢低买入。

I nibbled here and there. I don't know if this regional banking thing is the biggest issue in the world. 我这里那里都买了一点。我不知道这个区域性银行问题是否是世界上最大的问题。

Realistically, an hour ago is when it became more apparent to me that this was the reason the market was actually upset. 实际上，一个小时前我才更清楚地意识到，这才是市场真正不安的原因。

And we're just going to have to see, you know, how long this ends up playing out in regards to retail banks. 我们只需要看看，你知道，这在零售银行方面会持续多久。

政府停摆与区域性银行流动性

Now, the one final thing I want to say on regional banks and then we'll get Chris onto the show for Macro Thursdays（宏观星期四: 一个讨论宏观经济话题的节目环节） is that the government shutdown might be doing something to the regional banks. 现在，关于区域性银行，我最后想说的一点，然后我们请Chris上节目进行“宏观星期四”讨论，那就是政府停摆（Government shutdown: 政府因预算僵局而部分或全部停止运作）可能正在对区域性银行产生影响。

By the way, real quick before that, uh, Perplexity launched a new language feature today. That's why Duolingo was down 5%. 顺便说一句，在此之前，Perplexity今天推出了一项新的语言功能。这就是Duolingo下跌5%的原因。

All of these tech companies, they're going after language for some reason. 所有这些科技公司，出于某种原因都在追求语言技术。

Language is the biggest thing they want to cure with AI. And I think Dolingo is just like, "Dude, do all of you guys have to focus on what we focus on? like can you just like let us chill out? 语言是他们想用人工智能解决的最大问题。我认为Duolingo就像在说：“伙计，你们所有人都必须专注于我们关注的东西吗？你们能不能让我们放松一下？”

But that was Duelingo. Okay. So, one of the issues with regional banks in terms of the shutdown right here is from this idea. 但那是Duolingo。好的。所以，区域性银行在政府停摆方面的一个问题源于这个想法。

A lot of regional banks rely on short-term liquidity（流动性: 资产转换为现金的难易程度）, aka cash on hand, to cover daily operations. 许多区域性银行依赖短期流动性（即手头现金）来支付日常运营开支。

Weekly government payments temporarily boost the cash on hand for these regional banks, aka their float. 每周的政府付款暂时增加了这些区域性银行的手头现金，也就是它们的浮动资金。

But when a shutdown stops these payments, banks must sell assets to stay liquid. 但当政府停摆停止这些付款时，银行必须出售资产以保持流动性。

Right now, large Treasury settlements（国债结算: 国债交易的最终完成） are draining cash and banks are borrowing heavily from the Fed to cover gaps. 目前，大量的国债结算正在消耗现金，银行正大量向美联储借款以弥补缺口。

That selling pressure ripples through into the broader market. This is one theory. 这种抛售压力会波及到更广泛的市场。这只是一种理论。

This doesn't have to be the only theory. Uh especially because the shutdown has only been happening for two weeks. 这不一定是唯一的理论。嗯，特别是考虑到政府停摆才持续了两周。

And you know, these earnings that tanked the market today from these regional banks are from last quarter. 而且你知道，这些区域性银行今天导致市场暴跌的财报是上个季度的。

So, they really don't have anything to do with what what's happening right now. 所以，它们真的与现在发生的事情无关。

But one argument could be the perception of the government shutdown is having a short-term liquidity impact on some of these regional banks. 但有一种观点可能是，人们对政府停摆的看法正在对其中一些区域性银行产生短期流动性影响。

And that from a perceptual perspective could be the reason why the market's losing some of its momentum. 从感知角度来看，这可能是市场失去部分动力的原因。

Chris Patel: 十年期国债收益率跌破4%的意义

Amit Kukreja: Having said that, we got a lot to talk about today in regards to the 10-year inflation, interest rates, regional banks. Amit Kukreja: 话虽如此，我们今天有很多关于十年期国债、通货膨胀、利率和区域性银行的话题要讨论。

Ladies and gentlemen, let's get into macro Thursday（宏观星期四: 一个讨论宏观经济话题的节目环节）. Chris Patel, what's up? 女士们先生们，让我们进入宏观星期四。Chris Patel，你好吗？

Chris: Happy sub4% on the 10-year day. Finally, after I think almost nine months, we're below four below 4% on the 10-year, which is always nice. Chris: 祝贺十年期国债收益率跌破4%！终于，在将近九个月之后，十年期国债收益率跌破了4%，这总是令人高兴的。

It looks like we might sustain it too eventually. 看起来我们最终也可能维持住这个水平。

Amit Kukreja: I hope so, man. I hope so. There's a lot of people that need to refinance（再融资: 重新安排现有债务，通常以获得更优惠的利率或条款）, a lot of businesses that need to start working uh working on planning for their uh debt issuances（债务发行: 公司或政府通过发行债券等方式筹集资金） for next year. Amit Kukreja: 我希望如此，伙计。我希望如此。有很多人需要再融资，很多企业需要开始为明年的债务发行做计划。

So by by uh getting the longer term rates down, you know, this is a big positive for a lot of uh a lot of businesses and you know, even people like average people that need to refinance their homes lower because they bought, you know, during 22, 23 or 24, 25 and they're sitting on seven, you know, they got a lot of people got sold on this stupid thing which is marry the house and date the rate or some like that. 所以，通过降低长期利率，你知道，这对很多企业来说是一个巨大的利好，甚至对普通人来说也是如此，他们需要以更低的利率为房屋再融资，因为他们在2022、2023或2024、2025年买房，现在利率高达7%，你知道，很多人被这种愚蠢的说法所迷惑，比如“嫁给房子，约会利率”之类的。

You ever heard of that before? 你以前听过这个说法吗？

Chris: Yeah. Yep. Yep. Chris: 是的。是的。是的。

Amit Kukreja: You're muted. I can't hear you. I don't know if it's just me. Amit Kukreja: 你静音了。我听不到你。我不知道是不是只有我这样。

Chris: No, no, it's just you. It's just you. Chris: 不，不，只有你。只有你。

Amit Kukreja: No, it's probably me. One second. Amit Kukreja: 不，可能是我。等一下。

Amit Kukreja: Uh, we got We got to make an intro for Macro Thursdays. That's correct. We do got to make an intro for that. Amit Kukreja: 嗯，我们得为宏观星期四做一个开场白。没错。我们确实得为它做一个开场白。

Chris: Dude, someone called him Indian Steve. Chris: 伙计，有人叫他印度史蒂夫。

Amit Kukreja: You can hear me now? Amit Kukreja: 你现在能听到我说话了吗？

Chris: No, you still can't hear me. We have Asian Steve, regular Steve, and Indian Steve. Chris: 不，你还是听不到我。我们有亚洲史蒂夫，普通史蒂夫，还有印度史蒂夫。

Amit Kukreja: Yeah, technically it's Indian Steve. Man, I was on here before Steve was. Amit Kukreja: 是的，技术上来说是印度史蒂夫。伙计，我比史蒂夫更早在这里。

Chris: That's true. Oh, you can hear me now, right? Chris: 没错。哦，你现在能听到我说话了，对吧？

Amit Kukreja: There we go. Sorry, my uh my headphones are uh weren't connected. Amit Kukreja: 好了。抱歉，我的耳机没连上。

Chris: Okay. Can you hear me? Chris: 好的。你能听到我说话吗？

Amit Kukreja: Yeah, I can hear you. Okay. Amit Kukreja: 是的，我能听到你。好的。

Amit Kukreja: Okay, Chris, I would zoom out a little bit because it's a little bit too zoomed in on you. Amit Kukreja: 好的，Chris，我想让你稍微缩小一点画面，因为你太近了。

Chris: Yeah. Chris: 是的。

Amit Kukreja: No, no, that's that's too close. Okay, perfect. Perfect. Amit Kukreja: 不，不，太近了。好的，完美。完美。

Chris: There we go. Chris: 好了。

Amit Kukreja: Okay. So, we got a lot to talk about with the tenure. Let's start off with this dude because you know a lot about regional banks and obviously you've seen what has happened over the past two hours with these regional banks. Amit Kukreja: 好的。所以，我们有很多关于十年期国债的话题要讨论。我们先从这个开始吧，因为你对区域性银行了解很多，而且显然你已经看到了过去两个小时这些区域性银行发生的事情。

Do you think based on what uh Zions and Western Alliance said we might have a structural problem with credit based on these regional banks? 你认为根据Zions和Western Alliance的说法，我们可能在信贷方面存在区域性银行的结构性问题吗？

Chris: Uh I don't think it's nearly as systemic as um as people are making it out to be. Chris: 嗯，我不认为它像人们所说的那么系统性。

Um so uh let me let me briefly give some people a little bit of background on regional banks versus like your traditional JP Morgans and Well Fargo you know based on how big you are as a bank there's certain restrictions that were placed uh that were that were put on you after the Great Financial Crisis（全球金融危机: 2008年左右爆发的全球性金融危机） where the bigger you were the more likely it is that you know you had to retain more capital on your balance sheet（资产负债表: 记录公司资产、负债和所有者权益的财务报表） and you could not lend that out. 嗯，所以，让我简要地给一些人介绍一下区域性银行与传统摩根大通和富国银行的区别。你知道，根据你作为银行的规模，在全球金融危机之后，对你施加了一些限制，你规模越大，就越有可能需要在资产负债表上保留更多资本，而不能将其贷出。

Now because of that there are other banks and non non non-banks that kind of filled the gap right so basically they came in and said look we you know we know the big banks can't lend you money but maybe we can we'll help you out right and so a lot of regional banks if you wanted like let's say a car loan or a home loan or whatever you could go to your local regional bank your credit unions and basically get the loans that you needed because the big banks wouldn't necessarily have that money to lend to you or the the rates that they were trying to give you were not as uh as good. 现在，由于这个原因，其他银行和非银行机构填补了空白，对吧？所以基本上他们进来并说，看，我们知道大银行不能借钱给你，但也许我们可以，我们会帮助你，对吧？所以很多区域性银行，如果你想要汽车贷款或房屋贷款或其他任何东西，你可以去当地的区域性银行、信用合作社，基本上可以获得你需要的贷款，因为大银行不一定有钱借给你，或者他们试图给你的利率没有那么好。

So, a lot of what we're seeing right now is just some tailwinds from uh from the fallout withricolor and some of these other ABS originators（资产支持证券发起人: 创建和销售资产支持证券的机构）. 所以，我们现在看到的很多情况，只是来自与ricolor和其他一些资产支持证券发起人（ABS originators: 创建和销售资产支持证券的机构）的余波。

And uh that's a big problem. And I think I mentioned this the last time we were on here about auto loans（汽车贷款: 用于购买汽车的贷款）, how they were being fraudulently issued. 嗯，那是一个大问题。我想上次我们在这里的时候我提到了汽车贷款，它们是如何被欺诈性发放的。

And also like this whole business of subprime borrowers（次级借款人: 信用评级较低、风险较高的借款人） getting loans for used cars at crazy crazy high rates. 还有就是次级借款人以极高的利率获得二手车贷款的整个业务。

I was actually just at lunch today with uh with my accountant and he was telling me about um certain certain transactions that he had seen with some of his clients where a lot of like let's say you're an immigrant like an illegal and you wanted to buy a car, right? 我今天刚和我的会计师共进午餐，他告诉我一些他与客户打交道的交易，比如如果你是一个非法移民，想买一辆车，对吧？

Or a truck whatever. um you can't go to the traditional banking bank and say, "Hey, G, let me borrow 15$20,000 to buy this used truck." 或者卡车什么的。嗯，你不能去传统银行说：“嘿，G，借我15,000到20,000美元买这辆二手卡车。”

So, they were going to these quote unquote weird lenders that essentially charged crazy and high interest rates like 10 15%. 所以，他们去找那些所谓的“奇怪的”贷款人，这些人基本上收取10%到15%的疯狂高利率。

But essentially, they would give you that loan, right? Um the challenge is with all the deportations and all this happening can't exactly go after someone that just got deported, right? 但本质上，他们会给你那笔贷款，对吧？嗯，挑战在于，随着所有这些驱逐出境事件的发生，你不能去追究一个刚刚被驱逐出境的人，对吧？

So you're starting to see things like that kind of creep up a little bit into this uh into this thing. 所以你开始看到类似的事情悄悄地渗透到这个，嗯，这个局面中。

So there's a lot of there's a lot of things that are happening. Um there's also a lot of fallout from commercial real estate（商业房地产: 用于商业目的的房地产，如办公楼、购物中心） where a lot of these regional banks they held debt from commercial commercial uh commercial real estate and instead of calling those loans in when they matured they essentially just pretended like they didn't default and they just extended the extended the maturity. 所以有很多事情正在发生。嗯，商业房地产也带来了很多负面影响，许多区域性银行持有商业房地产的债务，当这些贷款到期时，它们没有收回，而是假装没有违约，只是延长了到期日。

Well, that only works for so long before people start asking questions and people try start doing something called mark-to-market（按市值计价: 根据当前市场价格而非历史成本评估资产价值） where if you if let's say there's a property that you know they needed $500 million in 2017 and that property is now only worth $250 million but on your books you're saying that the asset is actually still worth $500 million because you didn't rerate it down. 嗯，这种做法只能维持一段时间，直到人们开始提出问题，并开始进行所谓的按市值计价。比如，如果有一处房产在2017年需要5亿美元，现在只值2.5亿美元，但你的账面上仍然说这笔资产值5亿美元，因为你没有对其进行重新估值。

That means that when you do actually get it rerated, that means that now you have to eat that cost. 这意味着当你真正对其进行重新估值时，你就必须承担这笔成本。

So, a lot of people are worried like, "Hey, wait a second. Am I is my bank one of the ones that has issued all these bad loans or or coll undercollateralized（抵押不足: 贷款的抵押品价值低于贷款金额）?" 所以，很多人担心：“嘿，等等。我的银行是不是那些发放了所有这些不良贷款或抵押不足的银行之一？”

And so, that's where a lot of people are kind of scared. And um a lot of this is because believe it or not, Jamie Dimon（杰米·戴蒙: 摩根大通首席执行官） Jamie Dimon um kind of said, I don't know if you saw the quote from Jamie Dimon. 所以，很多人都有些害怕。嗯，这很大程度上是因为，信不信由你，杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon: 摩根大通首席执行官）曾说过，我不知道你是否看到了杰米·戴蒙的引言。

杰米·戴蒙的“蟑螂”论与信贷风险

Amit Kukreja: Oh yeah, he he talked about cockroaches basically and said that Amit Kukreja: 哦，是的，他基本上谈到了蟑螂，并说

Chris: Yeah, the exact quote right here is um I mean Michael, you should assume that whenever something happens, we scour old processes, old procedures, old underwriting, all everything, and we think we're okay and other stuff. Chris: 是的，确切的引文是，嗯，我的意思是迈克尔，你应该假设每当发生什么事时，我们都会彻底检查旧流程、旧程序、旧承销，所有一切，我们认为我们没问题，还有其他事情。

But my antenna goes up when things like that happen. And I probably shouldn't say this, but when you see one cockroach（蟑螂: 在金融语境中，比喻隐藏的问题或风险）, there are probably more. 但当发生那样的事情时，我就会警觉起来。我可能不该这么说，但当你看到一只蟑螂，很可能还有更多。

And so we should everyone should be forewarned on this one. Do do you think he's he's making a legitimate point that there are cockroaches in the credit sector of the country? 所以我们每个人都应该对此有所警惕。你认为他提出的观点是合理的吗，即这个国家的信贷领域存在“蟑螂”？

I mean, you you talked about these auto loans and what's going on with legal immigrants. 我的意思是，你谈到了这些汽车贷款以及合法移民的情况。

Could that like on a percentage basis, I know it's kind of a gut reaction today, but what 10% 20% chance that it's a real issue in the country right now? 从百分比来看，我知道这有点像今天的直觉反应，但现在这个国家有10%或20%的可能性存在真正的问题吗？

Chris: It's too small to be a major issue. This is not 2008. 2008, like you're talking about the the the mortgage market（抵押贷款市场: 住房抵押贷款的发行和交易市场）, right? Chris: 这太小了，不足以成为一个大问题。这不是2008年。2008年，你谈论的是抵押贷款市场，对吧？

And underwriting has gotten a lot better since 2008. So, it's not necessarily as impactful as 2008, but there's definitely a lot of banks that are out there that are uh not not exactly in the greatest of shapes. 自2008年以来，承销工作已经好很多了。所以，它不一定像2008年那样具有影响力，但肯定有很多银行的状况，嗯，不是最好的。

Um, I'm telling you, the biggest challenge that you have is businesses being marked marked to market. 嗯，我告诉你，你面临的最大挑战是企业按市值计价。

Like there's a lot of uh non-traditional bank lenders that have come in and provided capital and they they don't want to declare what the real value of these underlying businesses are and if that's the case then the loans that they've issued are not good. 比如，有很多非传统银行贷款机构进来提供资本，他们不想声明这些基础业务的真实价值是什么，如果真是这样，那么他们发放的贷款就不良。

So you know it's this is one of those times where confidence is being shaken in the financial uh sector and the thing is do I think it's a do I think it's a systemic issue? 所以你知道，这是金融领域信心动摇的时期之一，问题是，我是否认为这是一个系统性问题？

I don't think so. I think the banks, the regional banks have had plenty of time to kind of rightsize some of their balance sheets. 我不这么认为。我认为银行，区域性银行有足够的时间来调整它们的资产负债表。

So, this is the time where you want to kind of look at the regional banks and look at the ones that are being sold off and uh and and look at the ones that are the strongest that have the best credit profiles. 所以，现在是你应该关注区域性银行的时候，看看那些被抛售的，嗯，然后看看那些最强劲、拥有最佳信用状况的银行。

Unfortunately, this is this is not public information that we can reach into like SEC filings（美国证券交易委员会备案: 上市公司向SEC提交的定期报告和文件） and look for like bad credit events. 不幸的是，这不是我们可以通过美国证券交易委员会备案等公开信息来查找不良信贷事件的。

Like you can't say, okay, yeah, they issued loans to this specific company and or or they have loans on the balance sheet that has this kind of exposure. 你不能说，好的，是的，他们向这家特定公司发放了贷款，或者他们的资产负债表上有这种风险敞口的贷款。

So, it's really hard to um to figure that out. So, you have to just rely on, hey, what is the what is the management of this business like? 所以，嗯，很难弄清楚这一点。所以，你只能依靠，嘿，这家企业的管理层怎么样？

How credible are they? How what kind of processes do they have in place to make sure that they're not they haven't been issuing a lot of fraudulent um um fraud? 他们有多可信？他们有什么样的流程来确保他们没有发放大量欺诈性的，嗯，欺诈？

I'm not and and it doesn't necessarily have to be fraud, by the way. It could also just be making bad loans that they don't want to recognize. 我不是，顺便说一句，这不一定是欺诈。也可能只是他们不想承认的不良贷款。

Amit Kukreja: Yeah. And and you know, if if anything of like when this happened in 2023, the big banks got bigger because they ended up acquiring the regionals that failed and that kind of stopped the contagion（蔓延: 金融危机从一个市场或机构扩散到其他市场或机构） from becoming a contagion. Amit Kukreja: 是的。而且你知道，如果2023年发生类似事件，大银行会变得更大，因为它们最终会收购那些倒闭的区域性银行，这在某种程度上阻止了蔓延成为一场真正的危机。

If it does and Silicon Valley Bank collapsed like that was a thousand times worse than Zion saying they had a $50 million charge off. 如果它真的发生了，硅谷银行的倒闭比Zions银行宣布有5000万美元的核销要糟糕一千倍。

One of those was because of a u uh a legal injunction. So it might not even fully be just because of bad credit, but to your point, when the markets get scared about credit issues, you know, everything gets sold off. 其中一个原因是法律禁令。所以这可能不完全是因为不良信贷，但正如你所说，当市场对信贷问题感到恐慌时，你知道，所有东西都会被抛售。

Chris: Well, Silicon Valley Bank was was more structural than actual like bad credit. Chris: 嗯，硅谷银行的问题更多是结构性的，而不是实际的不良信贷。

Basically what they did was they borrowed they had all these depositors and what they did was they bought treasuries with them and the treasuries were yielding barely anything and at the same time um you know they had a bank run and so now you have this really illiquid（非流动性: 资产难以迅速转换为现金） well technically it's super liquid but the the lo the further out treasuries that they had were illiquid and they would have had to take a giant write-off（减记: 降低资产账面价值，承认其价值损失）. 他们基本上是借钱，他们有很多储户，然后他们用这些钱购买了国债，而国债几乎没有收益，同时，你知道，他们发生了银行挤兑，所以现在你面临着这种真正非流动性的资产——嗯，技术上来说它是超级流动的，但他们持有的那些更远的国债是非流动性的，他们将不得不进行巨额减记。

So, you know, Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic, those are a little bit different. 所以，你知道，硅谷银行、第一共和银行，那些情况有点不同。

Um, this time around, people are just worried and especially because some of these originators have gone out of business. 嗯，这次人们只是担心，特别是由于一些发起人已经倒闭。

Like, this other one that they they have, I for I forgot the names, but they're not that big. 比如，他们拥有的另一个，我忘了名字，但它们没那么大。

So, it's not something that I would be like, "Oh my god, this is a systemic issue with massive rampid fraud all over the place." 所以，这并不是我会说“天哪，这是一个系统性问题，到处都是大规模的猖獗欺诈”的事情。

I will say this though, there could be a lot more used cars on the market. 不过我要说的是，市场上可能会有更多的二手车。

Amit Kukreja: Chris, I'm gonna stop you real real quick right there. Trump's taking questions. Amit Kukreja: Chris，我在这里打断你一下。特朗普正在回答问题。

Uh let's see if we get any questions of value and then we'll we'll go back. 嗯，我们看看有没有什么有价值的问题，然后我们再回来。

特朗普的问答环节：IVF与政治议题

Speaker: Please, Mr. President, you posted earlier today. Please, Mr. President, this is a major campaign promise that you made. 发言人：请问总统先生，您今天早些时候发帖了。请问总统先生，这是您做出的一个主要竞选承诺。

It was a big hot topic towards the end of the election. You're delivering on that. 在选举后期，这是一个非常热门的话题。您正在兑现承诺。

Again, I actually had a question for Secretary Kennedy or Dr. Heidi. Dr. Heidi, you said something that I thought was really important. 再次，我实际上有一个问题要问肯尼迪部长或海蒂博士。海蒂博士，您说了一些我认为非常重要的话。

You talked about how this coverage option, this benefit option gives companies the maximum flexibility to design uh benefits consistent to their values. 您谈到了这种覆盖选项、这种福利选项如何赋予公司最大的灵活性，以设计符合其价值观的福利。

I was wondering if either you or the president could expand on that and talk about why that's an important thing to understand about this program. 我想知道您或总统是否能对此进行阐述，并谈谈为什么理解这一点对这个项目很重要。

Speaker: Yes, thank you. It's a great question. We think that employers are best situated to know what what them and their employees when are want to contribute to in relation to their benefits. 发言人：是的，谢谢。这是一个很好的问题。我们认为雇主最适合了解他们和他们的员工希望在福利方面做出什么贡献。

So employers are going to be able to decide these two um see certain types of doctors and they can work with providers that are identifying the highest quality fertility providers and so it gives it puts them in the driver's seat and our view is that we want employers to be the ones that can make those decisions not the government. 因此，雇主将能够决定这两点，嗯，看某些类型的医生，他们可以与那些正在识别最高质量生育服务提供者的机构合作，所以这让他们掌握了主动权，我们的观点是，我们希望雇主而不是政府来做出这些决定。

Speaker: Thank you. 发言人：谢谢。

Speaker: That's a good answer. 发言人：这是一个很好的答案。

Speaker: Yeah. Well is a very good answer. 发言人：是的。嗯，这是一个非常好的答案。

Speaker: Mr. Mr. President, Mr. Mr. President, um, previously you did not seem to be bothered uh regarding Hamas track cracking down on uh what you called um 发言人：总统先生，总统先生，嗯，之前您似乎并不在意哈马斯镇压您所说的，嗯……

Amit Kukreja: All right. So, we're not getting actual questions about China or anything economical. Amit Kukreja: 好的。所以，我们没有得到关于中国或任何经济问题的实际问题。

So, we'll get some quotes. I will pull up the quotes whenever we get them in real time for whatever Trump says, but those questions are more on the other political issues. 所以，我们会得到一些引述。只要我们实时得到特朗普说的任何话，我都会把引述调出来，但那些问题更多是关于其他政治议题的。

Okay. So, um let's talk about the tenure then. Regional banks maybe not that big of an issue. 好的。那么，嗯，我们来谈谈十年期国债吧。区域性银行可能不是那么大的问题。

The 10ear（十年期国债: 美国财政部发行的期限为十年的政府债券）, this is something you're really focused on, Chris. Why is the tenure going below four such a big deal for markets right now? 十年期国债，这是你真正关注的，Chris。为什么十年期国债跌破4%对市场来说现在如此重要？

Chris: Uh, you're muted there. It's a combination of things. One, it's a projection from the bond market（债券市场: 债券买卖的市场）, and the bond market is much much bigger than the equity market（股票市场: 股票买卖的市场） for for people wondering. Chris: 嗯，你静音了。这是多种因素的结合。首先，这是债券市场的预测，对于那些想知道的人来说，债券市场比股票市场大得多。

When the bond market starts to buy a lot more bonds, there's two reasons why. 当债券市场开始大量购买债券时，有两个原因。

Either they're they're expecting inflation（通货膨胀: 货币购买力下降，物价普遍上涨） to be lower on, you know, on a forward basis. 要么他们预期通货膨胀会降低，你知道，从远期来看。

So, when the long bond（长期债券: 期限较长的债券） starts to go south, you know, people are not going to say like, "Yeah, I'm willing to accept, you know, uh a 4% interest rate if they can get 5% from the Treasury, right?" 所以，当长期债券开始下跌时，你知道，人们不会说：“是的，如果他们能从财政部获得5%的收益，我愿意接受4%的利率，对吧？”

Um unless they expect that within the next two years, 3 years, the interest rates on the Fed is going to be down to 2%. 嗯，除非他们预计在未来两三年内，美联储的利率将降至2%。

In which case now they're going to be like they're not going to be able to get the the same return. 在这种情况下，他们将无法获得相同的回报。

So what we're seeing right now is number one people are expecting less inflation more cuts right so that's a simple reason why one it's going down but the other reason why is because if there's any fear in the equity market people are going to run to safety and treasuries（国债: 政府发行的债券） are pretty good yielders（收益率: 投资回报率） right now in terms of safety you're getting right now almost 4% return pretty safe without having to to do anything. 所以我们现在看到的是，第一，人们预期通胀会更低，会有更多降息，所以这是一个简单的原因，解释了为什么它会下降；但另一个原因是，如果股票市场有任何恐慌，人们就会转向安全资产，而国债现在在安全性方面是相当不错的收益率资产，你现在几乎可以获得4%的回报，相当安全，无需做任何事情。

So this is the one thing that weirds me out a little bit in seeing gold（黄金: 一种贵金属，常被视为避险资产） run up but at the same time treasuries are coming down. 所以，看到黄金上涨，但同时国债收益率下降，这让我有点奇怪。

I mean treasury yields are coming down technically. 我的意思是，技术上来说，国债收益率正在下降。

黄金与国债的矛盾走势

Amit Kukreja: What does that mean? Why is gold going up? Why why are people buying gold and treasuries at the same time? Amit Kukreja: 那是什么意思？为什么黄金会上涨？为什么人们同时购买黄金和国债？

Because that usually goes the opposite, right? 因为那通常是相反的，对吧？

Chris: It would you would think so, right? Gold going up means that people are expecting um the debasement of the dollar（美元贬值: 美元购买力下降）. Chris: 你会这么想，对吧？黄金上涨意味着人们预期美元贬值。

So that's the trade that people have been kind of making. But then if you look at Bitcoin, Bitcoin is down today, right? 所以这就是人们一直在做的交易。但如果你看看比特币，比特币今天下跌了，对吧？

So what is it? Is Bitcoin not an inflation hedge（通胀对冲: 投资于在通胀时期能保值或增值的资产） all of a sudden? It's not a not a not a, you know, inflation. 那是什么？比特币突然不是通胀对冲工具了吗？它不是，你知道，通胀。

Amit Kukreja: Has it has it ever been an inflation hedge or has it always been a way for people to speculate? I mean, Amit Kukreja: 它曾经是通胀对冲工具吗？还是它一直都是人们投机的方式？我的意思是，

Chris: Well acted good during inflation. Chris: 在通胀期间表现良好。

Amit Kukreja: That's the idea that it's supposed to be, right? So on one hand, you're starting to Well, technically on the longer run, Bitcoin has outperformed the dollar by miles. Amit Kukreja: 那就是它应该有的想法，对吧？所以一方面，你开始，嗯，从技术上讲，从长远来看，比特币已经远远跑赢了美元。

Yeah. 是的。

Chris: It's just gold has been recently doing it. And I I suspect the reason is more structural than than actual fundamentals, which is um people are de-dollarizing（去美元化: 减少对美元的依赖）, right? Chris: 只是黄金最近一直在这样做。我怀疑原因更多是结构性的，而不是实际的基本面，那就是人们正在去美元化，对吧？

Like central banks（中央银行: 负责管理国家货币和信贷的机构） around the world are just, you know, they're they're worried right now like what is the dollar going to be worth? 就像世界各地的中央银行，你知道，他们现在担心美元会值多少钱？

So a lot of central banks are probably buying dollars. I mean, uh buying gold right now. 所以很多中央银行可能正在购买美元。我的意思是，嗯，现在正在购买黄金。

So like China right now is probably buying a the Chinese central bank is probably buying a ton of gold. 所以，比如中国现在可能正在购买，中国央行可能正在购买大量的黄金。

And then there's also like I don't know if you saw the post by Chicken Genius, there's like lines of people buying gold all of a sudden. 然后还有，我不知道你有没有看到Chicken Genius的帖子，突然间有很多人排队买黄金。

So some of it's like just mania, right? Um so I think that that could also be another thing where things can get a little bit speculative in which case people are just dumping cash into gold. 所以其中一些就像是狂热，对吧？嗯，所以我认为这可能也是另一个因素，事情可能会变得有点投机，在这种情况下，人们只是把现金投入黄金。

So 所以

Amit Kukreja: Okay. So this so so people are buying gold as the inflation hedge, but they're also buying the 10-year because they think inflation's coming down and they want to lock in a good price. Amit Kukreja: 好的。所以人们购买黄金作为通胀对冲，但他们也购买十年期国债，因为他们认为通胀正在下降，并且想锁定一个好价格。

Like like structurally, does that does that end up boding well for equities? I guess is the broader question. 从结构上讲，这最终对股票市场是好兆头吗？我想这是更广泛的问题。

Chris: Well, I mean the the one thing that the treasuries have that gold doesn't have is liquidity. Chris: 嗯，我的意思是，国债拥有的而黄金没有的一点是流动性。

You know, like what are you going to do? Like all these people standing in line, what are you going to do? 你知道，你要怎么做？就像所有这些排队的人，你要怎么做？

Buy a bar of gold and store it at home? 买一块金条放在家里？

Amit Kukreja: Yeah. is that like and then how do you cash out? Like how do you get how do you sell it? Amit Kukreja: 是的。那就像，然后你如何套现？你如何出售它？

So maybe consumers and central banks can, you know, do their shenanigans with gold, but most businesses, they need liquidity and they need liquidity fast. 所以也许消费者和中央银行可以，你知道，玩弄黄金，但大多数企业，他们需要流动性，而且需要快速的流动性。

So they're not going to be out there buying gold like this or even gold futures for the most part. 所以他们大部分不会像这样去购买黄金，甚至不会购买黄金期货。

They'll probably just stick to treasuries and get a yield off of it. 他们可能只会坚持购买国债并从中获得收益。

So, you know, I think there's there's room enough. The market's big. 所以，你知道，我认为有足够的空间。市场很大。

Amit Kukreja: Okay. So then the question becomes on the equity markets. Did you buy the Amit Kukreja: 好的。那么问题就变成了股票市场。你买了吗？

Chris: So, one thing real quick. Someone said chicken is selling, not buying. Chris: 好的，快速说一件事。有人说Chicken Genius在卖，而不是在买。

Yes, Chicken Genius posted that those people standing online are exit liquidity basically. 是的，Chicken Genius发帖说那些排队的人基本上是退出流动性。

So, everyone's been buying gold. 所以，大家都在买黄金。

Amit Kukreja: Yeah, everyone's been buying gold. Now, silver is making a run for it. Amit Kukreja: 是的，每个人都在买黄金。现在，白银正在上涨。

It's uh and and if you look at the RSI on gold right now, it's in like the 90s. It's crazy. 嗯，如果你现在看黄金的RSI（相对强弱指数），它在90左右。太疯狂了。

It's like gold is one of the most crowded trades right now. So, usually if you want to be a contrarian, you go the opposite direction of every everyone. 黄金现在是最拥挤的交易之一。所以，通常如果你想成为一个逆向投资者，你会和所有人反方向走。

When everyone else is standing in line, you figure out, okay, where can we go from this? 当所有人都排队的时候，你会想，好吧，我们接下来该怎么办？

And everyone seems to be bowled up on gold right now. So, I don't know. I don't know if I' I'd be in gold. 现在每个人似乎都对黄金充满热情。所以我不知道。我不知道我是否会投资黄金。

Are 是

Amit Kukreja: are you buying gold at all or No, Amit Kukreja: 你有买黄金吗？还是没有？

Chris: no. No. I I'm the traditional like buy yield guy, you know? Chris: 不。不。我是一个传统的“买收益”的人，你知道吗？

Like I I like buying businesses that grow over time and grow yields over time, not just, hey, the next guy is going to buy my shiny rock for more than I bought my shiny rock for. 比如我喜欢购买那些随着时间增长并带来收益增长的企业，而不是仅仅指望下一个人会以比我更高的价格购买我的闪亮石头。

Amit Kukreja: Yeah. Amit Kukreja: 是的。

Chris: Right. Chris: 没错。

Amit Kukreja: The only difference is there's consensus around the world that gold sh the rocks that are called gold are are valuable. Amit Kukreja: 唯一的区别是全世界都达成共识，认为被称为黄金的石头是有价值的。

So everything runs on consensus. If everyone thinks that a Mickey Mantel card is worth a million dollars, then it's worth a million dollars. 所以一切都基于共识。如果每个人都认为一张米奇·曼特尔的卡片值一百万美元，那么它就值一百万美元。

If no one thinks it's worth a million dollars, then it's just a piece of paper with with some guy on the on the the on the card. 如果没有人认为它值一百万美元，那么它就只是一张印着某个人的纸片。

Chris: Well, the market cap today officially is 30 trillion for gold. Um, okay. Chris: 嗯，黄金今天的市值正式达到30万亿美元。嗯，好的。

So, equities next six months, what are you thinking? We had rare earths that got crushed today. 那么，未来六个月的股票市场，你有什么看法？今天稀土股暴跌。

Quantum got crushed today. Nuclear stocks got crushed today. Bitcoin miners got crushed today. 量子股今天暴跌。核能股今天暴跌。比特币矿工股今天暴跌。

Is this a flushing out of froth or is this a buy the dip on some of these highf flyers? 这是泡沫的清洗，还是这些高飞股票的逢低买入机会？

Chris: Um, I think some of it is just plain fear that's kind of like making its way into the market. Chris: 嗯，我认为其中一部分只是纯粹的恐惧，这种恐惧正在渗透到市场中。

And not to mention, look at these companies, man. They've had massive run-ups up till now. 更不用说，看看这些公司，伙计。它们至今都经历了大幅上涨。

So, some of it is just profit taking. You know, some of it's fear of overvaluation. 所以，其中一部分只是获利了结。你知道，一部分是对估值过高的担忧。

Some of it is just, hey, the technology is probably BS. And so, you know, people have made substantial gains. 其中一部分只是，嘿，这项技术可能就是胡扯。所以，你知道，人们已经获得了可观的收益。

They're going to want to take some profit, right? So, I shorted uh CQITS today. 他们会想获利了结，对吧？所以，我今天做空了CQITS。

I did it via QBTZ which was a good move in the morning time. 我是通过QBTZ做的，早上是个不错的操作。

Amit Kukreja: So that was a great move in the morning. You should be up like 20% or something on that. Amit Kukreja: 所以早上那是个很棒的举动。你应该在那上面赚了20%左右。

So 所以

Chris: 10 10 because I didn't get I didn't get it fast enough. Chris: 10，10，因为我没有足够快地买入。

Amit Kukreja: Yeah. Amit Kukreja: 是的。

Chris: So okay. So then the question then becomes if you think people are just taking profits right here. Chris: 所以好的。那么问题就来了，如果你认为人们只是在这里获利了结。

Is there any concern for the highf flyers to end out Q4 or do you think they consolidate even if they go down another 10% but they still hold the majority of their gains? 对于那些高飞股票在第四季度结束时有什么担忧吗？或者你认为它们即使再下跌10%，但仍能保住大部分涨幅，从而进行盘整？

Chris: I'm not too sure about like you'd have to pick each one individually. Like with regards to quantum, I'm not I'm not like in either direction, right? Chris: 我不太确定，你必须逐个选择。比如关于量子，我没有明确的方向，对吧？

I I think the technology is probably legitimate, but the use cases are like years away like what's his name Scarelli saying. 我认为这项技术可能是合法的，但其应用场景还需要数年时间，就像Scarelli说的那样。

So I agree with that. Um but that doesn't mean that the the market isn't willing to speculate. 所以我同意这一点。嗯，但这并不意味着市场不愿意投机。

When it comes to the AI data centers. There's actual customers that are coming out building things. 当谈到人工智能数据中心时。有实际的客户正在出来建造东西。

So that's a real tangible business. I don't think that there's a real business with quantum. 所以那是一个真实的、有形的企业。我不认为量子技术有真正的商业应用。

So you have to be very selective on which one do you think that's actually real and which one is not real. 所以你必须非常挑剔，判断哪个是真实的，哪个不是真实的。

You know, and it's not to say that quantum the technology is not real. 你知道，这并不是说量子技术不真实。

It's just, you know, there's a lot of things out there that are real technologies, but they're just not monetizable because the use cases are either so limited or or not worth it. 只是，你知道，有很多真实的技术存在，但它们无法变现，因为应用场景要么非常有限，要么不值得。

Like another thing is like uh same thing with the the what is it they called the rare earth minerals. 就像另一件事，嗯，和他们称之为稀土矿物的东西一样。

While rare earth minerals are very important for the manufacturing process for you know high technology. 虽然稀土矿物对于高科技的制造过程非常重要。

Do you know what the total total um worldwide market was for rare earth minerals? 你知道稀土矿物的全球总市场规模是多少吗？

Amit Kukreja: No. Amit Kukreja: 不知道。

Chris: It was like 19 billion last year. Chris: 去年大约是190亿美元。

Amit Kukreja: Really? Amit Kukreja: 真的吗？

Chris: Yeah. It wasn't like Chris: 是的。它不像

Amit Kukreja: you would think it's like hundreds of You muted yourself. You would think it's like hundreds of billions based on how much we've been talking about it, right? Amit Kukreja: 你会觉得是几百亿。你把自己静音了。你会觉得是几千亿美元，根据我们谈论它的程度，对吧？

Chris: Yeah. No, no, they're critical like in terms of manufacturing, but you know, it's it's all over the place. Chris: 是的。不，不，它们在制造方面是至关重要的，但你知道，它无处不在。

Uh total market size. So, when you look at the total market size, it's here it is one second. 嗯，总市场规模。所以，当你看到总市场规模时，它就在这里，等一下。

Uh let me just pull it up real quick. Um Sashi, thanks for the super chat. 嗯，让我快速调出来。嗯，Sashi，谢谢你的超级聊天。

He says, "Chris, do you expect gold to come down in the next four months? I have to buy nonetheless. 他说：“Chris，你预计黄金在未来四个月会下跌吗？但我无论如何都得买。

Should I wait or should I just buy now as it might never come down? Well, Chris can answer that, but I, you know, Chris is not buying gold based on what he just said. 我应该等还是现在就买，因为它可能永远不会下跌？嗯，Chris可以回答这个问题，但我，你知道，Chris根据他刚才说的，不会买黄金。

Chris: I I don't know, man. Gold is gold is there's no fundamentals that could tell you like, you know, where to go on gold. Chris: 我不知道，伙计。黄金，黄金没有基本面能告诉你，你知道，黄金该往哪里走。

So, I don't know. I couldn't tell you. 所以，我不知道。我无法告诉你。

Amit Kukreja: I would say in general buying something that's up 70% on the year, like in 10 years, maybe it works out, but if you're doing it as a, you know, short-term whatever, you you're buying something that's run up a lot, which is hard. Amit Kukreja: 我会说，一般来说，购买今年上涨70%的东西，比如在10年内，也许会成功，但如果你把它当作短期投资，你正在购买一个已经大幅上涨的东西，这很难。

Yeah. So if you look at the market like like you know market for uh rare earths it's not big 是的。所以如果你看市场，比如稀土市场，它并不大。

Chris: you know like I said they're very important like the total market size for rare earth estimate is about 12 to 12.75 billion. Chris: 你知道，就像我说的，它们非常重要，稀土的总市场规模估计约为120亿到127.5亿美元。

Amit Kukreja: Yeah. Amit Kukreja: 是的。

Chris: And it could be 37 billion by 2033. So 3x from here. It's like, okay, not exactly. Chris: 到2033年可能达到370亿美元。所以从现在算起是3倍。这就像，好吧，不完全是。

Like, 就像，

Amit Kukreja: do you think these got bit up for no reason then? Or because you said they're important, which they are. Amit Kukreja: 那么你认为这些股票是无缘无故被炒高的吗？还是因为你说它们很重要，确实如此。

Chris: So, like, Chris: 所以，就像，

Amit Kukreja: would you even think of buying the dip on these or like no, because even they're even though they're important, the market application of them is not enough to justify the runup. Amit Kukreja: 你会考虑逢低买入这些股票吗？还是不会，因为即使它们很重要，但它们的市场应用不足以支撑其上涨。

Chris: Yeah, I think I think most of these projects are going to require government support just to break even, Chris: 是的，我认为这些项目中的大多数都需要政府支持才能达到收支平衡，

Amit Kukreja: you know, and not to mention the Chinese have a way of kind of flooding the market. Amit Kukreja: 你知道，更不用说中国人有一种方法可以淹没市场。

Um, and so it's almost like you this thing is strategically important to have, but it's not necessarily the greatest business. 嗯，所以这几乎就像你拥有这个东西在战略上很重要，但它不一定是最好的生意。

You can't really build a a great business around it, you know, because the the the amount of people that need it is a lot more limited than people think. 你真的不能围绕它建立一个伟大的企业，你知道，因为需要它的人数比人们想象的要有限得多。

You know, this is not one of those things like steel or aluminum or something like or copper where it's in almost everything. 你知道，这不像钢铁、铝或者铜那样，几乎无处不在。

This is very specific use cases and very small amounts. So, yes, they're critical, but they're not like it's just not a business that you want to it's not a growth business, you know, unless you're very very early into like MP materials or stuff like that, then yeah, you could you could be in it, I suppose. 这都是非常具体的用例，而且用量很小。所以，是的，它们至关重要，但它们不像，它不是一个你想投资的业务，它不是一个增长型业务，你知道，除非你非常非常早期就投资了像MP Materials之类的公司，那么是的，我想你可以参与其中。

AI资本支出与地缘政治

Amit Kukreja: Are you at all concerned about capex? We've seen these deals with Open AI and AMD, Open AI and Oracle, Open AAI and Nvidia. Amit Kukreja: 你对资本支出有任何担忧吗？我们看到了OpenAI与AMD、OpenAI与甲骨文、OpenAI与英伟达的这些交易。

Anthropic said they're going to do 26 billion of revenue next year. Like, are you feeling any uneasiness around the state of the AI capex trade or you think it's good to go? Anthropic说他们明年将实现260亿美元的营收。你对AI资本支出交易的现状感到不安吗？还是你认为它进展顺利？

Chris: As of right now, no. I think there's enough um there's enough data out there that says demand is outpacing supply. Chris: 截至目前，没有。我认为有足够的，嗯，有足够的数据表明需求正在超过供应。

So, it's not something that I'm overly overly concerned about. Whenever we see like companies actually starting to pull back on capex plans, then then there's something that we have to, you know, take into account. 所以，这不是我过度担忧的事情。每当我们看到公司开始削减资本支出计划时，那么我们就必须，你知道，考虑进去。

But as of right now, every CEO is coming out saying, "Listen, we've got more demand than we have supply." 但截至目前，每位首席执行官都出来说：“听着，我们需求大于供应。”

Amit Kukreja: Yeah. Amit Kukreja: 是的。

Chris: And you just got to take them for their word, right? I mean, I can't I can't deny that. Chris: 你只能相信他们的话，对吧？我的意思是，我不能否认这一点。

So, Novo's down 5%, folks. We got a Trump quote. He says, "I think the fat loss drugs will be a lot lower in price." 所以，诺和诺德（Novo）下跌5%，各位。我们得到了特朗普的一段引言。他说：“我认为减肥药的价格会低很多。”

Amit Kukreja: hymns is also down after hours. Let's let's go back to Trump and see what he's saying Amit Kukreja: Hymns盘后也下跌了。我们回去看看特朗普在说什么。

Trump: because it was statute. It couldn't have been earlier. I said, "Boy, this falls into the next administration. 特朗普：因为那是法规。不可能更早。我说：“天哪，这要落到下届政府了。

I better win." And all of a sudden, I watched this Biden taking credit for something that I did and uh on other things. 我最好赢。”然后突然间，我看到拜登把我的功劳揽到自己身上，嗯，还有其他事情。

So, we had a lot of things kick in. So, the nice part about this, this is at the beginning of our administration. 所以，我们有很多事情开始生效。所以，这件好事是，这发生在我们的政府执政初期。

So I think we're gonna see 所以我想我们会看到

Speaker: was just indicted by a grand jury in Maryland. Do you have a reaction to that? 发言人：刚刚被马里兰州大陪审团起诉。你对此有什么反应？

Trump: I didn't front of the line. We 特朗普：我没有排在前面。我们

Speaker: That's great. 发言人：那太棒了。

Trump: Why didn't I have him speak? He was so could have saved a lot of time. Thanks. 特朗普：我为什么不让他说话？他本来可以省下很多时间。谢谢。

I'm not surprised. Yeah, please. 我一点也不惊讶。是的，请。

Speaker: Yes. Thank you, Chris. Uh so Senate Majority Leader John F today said he'd like to proceed with the bill which would put sanctions on Russia. 发言人：是的。谢谢你，Chris。嗯，参议院多数党领袖约翰·F今天表示，他希望推进一项对俄罗斯实施制裁的法案。

What's your thought on that? 你对此有什么看法？

Trump: Well, we're going to see. He doesn't know about the call yet. I'm going to speak to him later. 特朗普：嗯，我们会看看。他还不了解这次通话。我稍后会和他谈谈。

And it was subject to what I wanted to do. And so we'll see what happens. 这取决于我想做什么。所以我们会看看会发生什么。

Uh we may have this may be uh such a productive call that we're going to end up we we want to get peace. 嗯，我们可能会有一次富有成效的通话，最终我们希望实现和平。

We want to stop the killing. 7,000 people a week. Can you believe it? 我们想停止杀戮。每周7000人。你能相信吗？

We want to stop the killing. So uh I'm going to speak to him and the speaker, Mike Johnson. 我们想停止杀戮。所以，嗯，我将和他们以及议长迈克·约翰逊谈谈。

I'll speak to them a little bit later and I'll tell them about this and we'll make the right determination. 我稍后会和他们谈谈，我会告诉他们这件事，然后我们会做出正确的决定。

I'm not against anything. I'm just saying uh it may not be perfect timing. 我不反对任何事。我只是说，嗯，时机可能不完美。

Speaker: It could happen in a week or two, but it's at my option as you know, 发言人：可能在一两周内发生，但如你所知，这由我决定。

Trump: right? But did President Putin try to dissuade you from selling Tomahawk missiles? 特朗普：对吧？但普京总统有没有试图劝阻你出售战斧导弹？

Speaker: Well, of course, what do you think he's going to say? Please sell tomahawks. 发言人：嗯，当然，你觉得他会说什么？请出售战斧。

Trump: But did he say please sell those tomahawks? I really appreciate it. 特朗普：但他有没有说“请出售那些战斧导弹”？我真的很感激。

I did actually say, "Would you mind if I gave a couple of thousand tomahawks to your opposition?" I did say that to him. 我确实说过：“你介意我给你的反对派几千枚战斧导弹吗？”我确实对他这么说了。

I said it just that way. 我就是那样说的。

Trump: He didn't like the idea. He really didn't like the idea. No, I said it that that way. 特朗普：他不喜欢这个主意。他真的不喜欢这个主意。不，我就是那样说的。

Uh you have to be a little bit lighthearted sometimes, but uh no, he doesn't want to Tommahawk is a vicious weapon. 嗯，有时候你得轻松一点，但嗯，不，他不想。战斧是一种恶毒的武器。

It's a vicious offensive, incredibly destructive weapon. Nobody wants to hook shot at him. 它是一种恶毒的进攻性武器，具有令人难以置信的破坏力。没人想被它攻击。

Speaker: Ask you not to provide. 发言人：请你不要提供。

Trump: So wouldn't anybody? I mean, it's been in the news. Who wouldn't do that? 特朗普：那谁不会呢？我的意思是，这已经上新闻了。谁不会那样做？

CNN, who wouldn't do that? You know, you think he's going to sayward, CNN，谁不会那样做？你知道，你觉得他会说，

Speaker: I'd love to have Tomah Hawk sent my way. I don't think so. 发言人：我很乐意让战斧导弹朝我这边发射。我不这么认为。

Trump: Maria, we have one of the great stars of television here and she's an incredible person and she's just an amazing woman who she got it all right. 特朗普：玛丽亚，我们这里有一位电视界的巨星，她是一个不可思议的人，她是一个了不起的女人，她把一切都做对了。

She got the Russia Russia Russia hoax right. She got everything. Would you have a question? 她把“俄罗斯门”骗局搞对了。她把一切都搞对了。你有什么问题吗？

Uh yes, Mr. President, I would ask you why this was so important to you. 嗯，是的，总统先生，我想问您为什么这件事对您如此重要。

Uh IVF and why was autism for for babies, baby boys. It's one in 12. 嗯，IVF，以及为什么自闭症对婴儿，男婴来说。是十二分之一。

I heard one in 10, Bobby. I heard another one, you know, different lists. 我听说过十分之一，鲍比。我还听说过其他的，你知道，不同的列表。

But when you think of that, it's not even sustainable. But there's something artificial when that happens. 但当你想到这一点时，这甚至不可持续。但当这种情况发生时，总有一些人为的因素。

That's not like a natural. And then you have certain groups of people that literally don't have autism and they're not taking some of the things that we're taking. 那不是自然的。然后你有一些特定的人群，他们确实没有自闭症，而且他们没有服用我们正在服用的某些东西。

So we're working very hard and or IVF. It's just that I have friends including Katie that called me and they told me the importance of it. 所以我们正在非常努力地工作，或者IVF。只是我有一些朋友，包括凯蒂，他们打电话给我，告诉我这件事的重要性。

I wasn't that familiar with it. Now I think I've sort of become the father ever since I heard we there was a bad decision in Alabama where a judge wanted all clinics to be immediately closed. 我以前不太熟悉。现在我想我有点像个父亲了，自从我听说阿拉巴马州有一个糟糕的判决，法官要求所有诊所立即关闭。

Right. And Katie called up and you said you were pretty strongly attacked by your friends that you didn't even know were involved with IVF. 没错。凯蒂打电话来，你说你被那些你甚至不知道与IVF有关的朋友强烈攻击了。

Right. 对。

Speaker: You had people's that had grandkids, people who had gone through IVF themselves telling their story and saying there are people out there. 发言人：你看到有人的孙子孙女，有自己经历过IVF的人讲述他们的故事，说外面有人。

Trump: Tell what you did when when you heard from your friends, you said this was not they almost became violent. 特朗普：当你听到朋友们说这事时，你做了什么？你说这事不是，他们几乎变得暴力。

Speaker: I told him I said Mr. President um we need you. We need your voice in this conversation. 发言人：我告诉他，我说总统先生，嗯，我们需要您。我们需要您在这个对话中发声。

Um we we need the directive. We need the strong support because there are millions of people out there, moms and dads, wanting to bring life into the world. 嗯，我们需要指导。我们需要强有力的支持，因为外面有数百万人，爸爸妈妈们，渴望将生命带到这个世界上。

And you had people, the chilling effect that occurred across Alabama. 而且你看到，阿拉巴马州各地都出现了令人不寒而栗的影响。

There were people that were in the middle of that process that had been praying to have a child and that was halted. 有些人正在进行那个过程，他们一直在祈祷能有一个孩子，但那个过程被叫停了。

And so the reality of that um was very stark in our state. 所以，嗯，这种现实在我们州非常严峻。

And so I was able to tell the president some of the stories of um people, you know, friends and grandparents and uh relatives that told me what they had experienced and also um you know what they were fearful of in the future. 所以我能够告诉总统一些关于，嗯，人们的故事，你知道，朋友、祖父母和亲戚告诉我他们的经历，以及，嗯，你知道他们对未来的恐惧。

And the president very quickly acted, spoke with a strong voice and really led the way. 总统很快采取了行动，用强有力的声音讲话，并真正地引领了方向。

Um, obviously we saw Democrats continue to fear-monger for the remainder of the year, trying to use it as an election issue when actually IVF is legal and accessible in all 50 states. 嗯，显然我们看到民主党人在今年剩余时间里继续散布恐惧，试图将其用作选举议题，而实际上IVF在所有50个州都是合法且可及的。

And President Trump very clearly said where he was on this and he said, "I'm going to make sure that this is more accessible and that is more affordable for families coast to coast." 特朗普总统非常清楚地表明了他在这个问题上的立场，他说：“我将确保这项技术在全国范围内对家庭来说更易获得、更经济实惠。”

That's exactly what he did. But it's that real life, there's real life stories, sir, that he responded to. 他确实这么做了。但正是那些真实的生活，那些真实的故事，先生，他对此做出了回应。

And that's what people don't know about him. He cares and when you 而这正是人们不了解他的地方。他关心，当你

Speaker: Okay. 发言人：好的。

地缘政治与市场信心

Amit Kukreja: All right. So, I guess the uh main comment we got is Trump's comment on Russia and that the weight loss drugs will be coming down in price. Amit Kukreja: 好的。所以，我想我们得到的主要评论是特朗普关于俄罗斯的评论，以及减肥药的价格将会下降。

Uh Chris, geopolitical instability. Do you think it's a concern for Q4 or you think we're getting to some level of peace? 嗯，Chris，地缘政治不稳定。你认为这是第四季度的一个担忧吗？还是你认为我们正在走向某种程度的和平？

Chris: No, I think we're This is all just back and forth. I think this is like Liberation Day part two. Chris: 不，我认为我们这都只是来回拉锯。我认为这就像《解放日》第二部。

where everyone's just kind of um number one the markets run really hard. 每个人都只是，嗯，首先市场运行得非常艰难。

So one people are not willing to just overlook things. They're like hey you know what maybe I should take some profit off the table just be smart about it. 所以人们不愿意忽视事情。他们会想，嘿，你知道吗，也许我应该获利了结，聪明一点。

Um, so I think some of it is just profit taking and then also some of the comment that Trump is making is kind of on one hand it's hey we're going to fight a trade war with China but then within like 24 hours it's like yeah but we'll figure it out. 嗯，所以我认为其中一部分只是获利了结，然后特朗普的一些评论，一方面是说我们要和中国打贸易战，但24小时内又说，是的，但我们会解决的。

Amit Kukreja: We'll figure it out, right? Amit Kukreja: 我们会解决的，对吧？

Chris: You know and you don't think the soybean（大豆: 一种农作物） thing is that big of a deal? Chris: 你知道，你不觉得大豆的事情有那么严重吗？

Amit Kukreja: Not really. I think this is just how Trump negotiates, right? He's a tough negotiator. Amit Kukreja: 不太。我认为这只是特朗普的谈判方式，对吧？他是一个强硬的谈判者。

So, he's just wants to keep the other side guessing and that he said that so many times like I just like to keep the other side guessing and so I think um going into trade negotiations with China and some of the some of the things that Scott Bessant has said uh representative uh trade representative Greer has said you know they'll get to their conclusion that they need to um this whole thing remember it's a mutually assured destruction（相互保证毁灭: 一种军事理论，指双方都拥有足以摧毁对方的核武器，从而形成威慑） we can't blow up their economy without them blowing up our economy you know Right. 所以，他只是想让对方猜测，而且他已经说过很多次了，比如我只是喜欢让对方猜测，所以我想，嗯，在与中国的贸易谈判中，以及Scott Bessant和贸易代表Greer所说的一些事情，你知道，他们会达成他们需要的结论，嗯，整件事记住，这是相互保证毁灭，我们不能在不摧毁我们自己经济的情况下摧毁他们的经济，你知道，对。

And China did actually say today uh the quote what from the foreign ministry（外交部: 负责处理国家对外事务的政府部门） was decoupling（脱钩: 经济体之间减少相互依赖） from the US is not realistic or rational. 而中国今天确实说了，嗯，外交部的引述是，与美国脱钩既不现实也不理性。

Amit Kukreja: Yeah. Amit Kukreja: 是的。

Chris: I mean that's good to hear, right? It's not like they're trying to say, "Yeah, we don't need you guys anymore." Chris: 我的意思是，这听起来不错，对吧？他们不是在说：“是的，我们不再需要你们了。”

And it's a full-on isolated war between the the two of them. They're like, "No, we'll figure it out." 而且这是一场他们两国之间完全孤立的战争。他们说：“不，我们会解决的。”

Amit Kukreja: I have a theory, bro. I My theory is Baron or President Trump has figured out zero DTE options（零日到期期权: 在当天到期的期权）. Amit Kukreja: 兄弟，我有一个理论。我的理论是巴伦或特朗普总统已经搞懂了零日到期期权。

Okay. and they're just like, "What's going on today?" You know, "Are my calls underwater（水下: 投资亏损，资产价值低于购买成本）? Yo, China, buy our cooking oil or or whatever." 好的。他们就像在说：“今天怎么回事？”你知道，“我的看涨期权亏损了吗？嘿，中国，买我们的食用油或者别的什么。”

And boom, the market crashes. Like, woo, I'm in the money again, you know. 然后砰，市场崩盘。就像，哇，我又赚钱了，你知道。

Chris: No, but we're joking about it. But would you put the odds at zero over someone who's connected to someone in the administration that's getting this information ahead of time? Chris: 不，但我们只是开玩笑。但你会把有人提前从政府内部人士那里获取信息的可能性设为零吗？

I would say the odds are greater than at least 10% on that. Dude, Eric Trump came out and said they made a billion dollars on crypto（加密货币: 使用加密技术进行交易的数字或虚拟货币）. 我会说这种可能性至少大于10%。伙计，埃里克·特朗普出来说他们在加密货币上赚了10亿美元。

Amit Kukreja: Yeah, he did say that. He did say that. Amit Kukreja: 是的，他确实说过。他确实说过。

Chris: I mean, come on. You're telling me that people are on not at least somewhat in the know about these things and making uh making making some moves in the background? Chris: 我的意思是，拜托。你告诉我人们对这些事情至少不是多少知情，并在幕后做一些动作？

So, I don't I don't think it's guiding uh Trump himself. I just think that some of the some of the people around him could be taking this using the information to their advantage. 所以，我不认为这在指导特朗普本人。我只是认为他身边的一些人可能会利用这些信息为自己谋利。

I mean, imagine being the guy who knows that Trump is about to put out a tweet that's anti-China. 我的意思是，想象一下，如果你是那个知道特朗普即将发布一条反华推文的人。

Amit Kukreja: Yeah, we need to we need to get into that network. Amit Kukreja: 是的，我们需要进入那个网络。

Chris: Well, that's that's a hard network to get into. But if you if you know that information and you can do it via crypto, which is totally anonymous, I mean, the guy made $200 million on Friday shorting Bitcoin because of that. Chris: 嗯，那是一个很难进入的网络。但如果你知道那个信息，并且可以通过完全匿名的加密货币进行操作，我的意思是，那个人周五因为这个做空比特币赚了2亿美元。

Amit Kukreja: Yeah, it's interesting. Speaking of crypto, Bitmine, what the hell is going on with this? Amit Kukreja: 是的，这很有趣。说到加密货币，Bitmine到底怎么回事？

You got a price target of $90 from B Riley. Stocks been flat. Ethereum's been kind of dead. B Riley给出了90美元的目标价（Price targets: 分析师预测股票在未来某个时间可能达到的价格）。股票一直持平。以太坊也一直没什么动静。

I mean, is your bullishness still up there? Or how do you think the story plays out? 我的意思是，你还那么看涨吗？或者你认为故事会如何发展？

Chris: Hell yeah, dude. Hell yeah. Still bullish on Ethereum. Bullish on stable coins, bullish on Ethereum. Chris: 当然了，伙计。当然了。仍然看涨以太坊。看涨稳定币，看涨以太坊。

There's just too many um institutions that are talking about building on the blockchain（区块链: 一种分布式数据库技术，用于记录加密货币交易） and specifically level two layer layer two（第二层扩展方案: 在现有区块链（如以太坊）之上构建的解决方案，旨在提高交易速度和效率） and uh of uh Ethereum and eventually that that uh that ecosystem（生态系统: 在特定领域内相互关联的实体和技术） that's being built is going to be worth something. 有太多机构正在谈论在区块链上进行建设，特别是以太坊的第二层扩展方案，最终正在构建的那个生态系统将会有价值。

So I'm in definitely I'm in the Tom Lee（汤姆·李: 一位著名的华尔街策略师） uh I hate I hate being in in Kathy Woods's（凯西·伍德: 方舟投资的创始人兼首席执行官） uh camp, but I think she's right, bro. 所以我绝对是站在汤姆·李那边的，嗯，我讨厌我讨厌站在凯西·伍德的阵营里，但我觉得她是对的，兄弟。

I I anytime I hear Kathy Wood, I still remember our debate on Roku（Roku: 一家流媒体设备和内容平台公司）, you know? 我，我每次听到凯西·伍德，我仍然记得我们关于Roku的辩论，你知道吗？

So, it's really hard to like be like, "Oh, yeah, Kathy Wood knows what she's doing." 所以，真的很难说：“哦，是的，凯西·伍德知道她在做什么。”

Amit Kukreja: You you defended Roku. You're like, "No, I think she has a point here." Amit Kukreja: 你你为Roku辩护。你说：“不，我觉得她在这里说得有道理。”

Chris: I did. See, and I was a for doing it. So, you know, what is Roku doing these days anyway? Chris: 我做了。看，我为此付出了代价。所以，你知道，Roku这些天到底在做什么？

I haven't even checked. 我甚至没查过。

Amit Kukreja: It's still like number two in her fund. Roku year to date is up 30%. So, that's helping. Amit Kukreja: 它仍然是她基金中的第二大持仓。Roku今年迄今上涨了30%。所以，这有帮助。

Chris: Is it? There you go. So, maybe maybe Kathy knows what she's doing. Chris: 是吗？看吧。所以，也许凯西知道她在做什么。

Amit Kukreja: Okay. So I agree with you on ETH. I'm super bullish as well. Amit Kukreja: 好的。所以我同意你关于ETH的看法。我也非常看涨。

But question is about BMR. Do you still think a 100red by end of year is a possibility? 但问题是关于BMR的。你仍然认为年底达到100美元的可能性存在吗？

Chris: See that's the thing. I don't know how how these guys are getting their price targets. Chris: 看，这就是问题所在。我不知道这些人是如何得出他们的目标价的。

Like it's just I mean I know how I'm getting a price target but then like the assumptions that some like Tom Lee is making are grounded in I don't know pie in the sky numbers. 就像，我的意思是，我知道我是如何得到目标价的，但像汤姆·李这样的人所做的假设是基于，我不知道，空中楼阁的数字。

Like I think it was like oh I think he said he thinks Bitcoin is going to be I mean not Bitcoin Ethereum is going to be between 10 and 12,000 就像我想他曾说过，他认为比特币会，我的意思是，不是比特币，以太坊会达到1万到1万2千美元。

and I think the way that he came to that number was the gap between Bitcoin and Ethereum closing. 我认为他得出这个数字的方式是比特币和以太坊之间的差距正在缩小。

But then my question was well then how do you know what the value of Bitcoin is going to be? 但我的问题是，那你怎么知道比特币的价值会是多少呢？

And then he threw out a target like 250,000 on Bitcoin. And I'm like okay. 然后他抛出了一个比特币25万美元的目标价。我就想，好吧。

So, it's not that it's not that I don't trust his numbers. I'm sure that there's a methodology at work. 所以，这并不是说我不相信他的数字。我相信这背后有一套方法论。

I mean, unless he's like publishing his numbers and saying the reason why I think this is going to be worth this is because of X. 我的意思是，除非他公布他的数字并说我之所以认为这会值这么多钱是因为X。

So, the best thing you can do is um is just hedge to the hedge your downside while giving yourself a lot of room for upside, you know, and if you can create a strategy around that, you could, you know, you could theoretically make a really good return without putting up too much risk. 所以，你能做的最好的事情就是，嗯，在对冲下行风险的同时给自己留出很大的上行空间，你知道，如果你能围绕这一点制定一个策略，你就可以，你知道，理论上可以在不承担太多风险的情况下获得非常好的回报。

So, 所以，

Amit Kukreja: Okay. So, long term, we still believe in ETH, just ultimately it's going to be a question of the performance towards the towards the end of the year. Amit Kukreja: 好的。所以，长期来看，我们仍然相信ETH，只是最终这将是关于年底表现的问题。

Chris: Yeah, I think if if we get a Santa Claus rally（圣诞老人行情: 指年底股市通常会出现的上涨趋势） and the market gets like, you know, like really happy again, which definitely is the case. Chris: 是的，我想如果我们迎来圣诞老人行情，市场再次变得非常活跃，这肯定会发生。

I think we have another rally in Q4. Um, I think I think ETH can get up there. 我认为第四季度我们会有另一波上涨。嗯，我认为ETH可以达到那个水平。

You know, the 75 in my opinion 75 is definitely possible because I'm looking at realistically like a 5,500 on Ethereum and then you just do the math on it. 你知道，在我看来，75美元绝对有可能，因为我实际看的是以太坊的5500美元，然后你只需计算一下。

6 million Ethereum outstanding 500, you know, multiply that out by uh 5,500 and then you just divide up by the estimate number of shares outstanding（流通股: 公司已发行并由投资者持有的股票数量） at the time, which is ends up being close to like 550 to 575, which is the total issuance. 600万以太坊流通量，你知道，乘以5500，然后除以当时估计的流通股数量，最终接近550到575，这是总发行量。

You got yourself $75, you know, um with an MNAV（市场净资产价值: 衡量封闭式基金或类似投资工具的价值） of 1.3 1.4. 你得到了75美元，你知道，嗯，市场净资产价值（MNAV）为1.3到1.4。

The only the only thing that um I would caution people is understand that the daily volume（日交易量: 某资产在一天内的交易总数量） is pretty sticky right now in terms of like it's around 50 to 70 million, but the number of shares outstanding is getting bigger and bigger. 我唯一会提醒大家的是，要明白目前的日交易量相当稳定，大约在5000万到7000万美元之间，但流通股的数量却越来越大。

Amit Kukreja: Yeah. Amit Kukreja: 是的。

Chris: Right. So, in my opinion, it's going to be harder to move it up and harder to move it down. Chris: 没错。所以，在我看来，要让它上涨和下跌都会变得更难。

So, you're starting to get this like gravity effect（重力效应: 指价格波动性因市场规模增大而减小的趋势）. And that's the real question that I have is like unless Ethereum starts to make massive moves to the upside or massive moves to the downside, the value of BMR is not going to be moving as nearly as much, or at least that's what I'm thinking. 所以，你开始感受到这种重力效应。我真正的问题是，除非以太坊开始大幅上涨或大幅下跌，否则BMR的价值不会有那么大的波动，至少我是这么认为的。

Um, in which case the options market is totally totally screwed up. 嗯，在这种情况下，期权市场完全被搞砸了。

In which case, you can take advantage of that. So, if you know how to take advantage of that, then take it. 在这种情况下，你可以利用这一点。所以，如果你知道如何利用它，那就去利用。

And if you don't, stay out of the trade. 如果你不知道，就不要参与交易。

2025年宏观经济展望：低利率环境与通胀放缓

Amit Kukreja: I agree. All right, so we got 10 minutes left. Let's uh end it out with some Q&A. Amit Kukreja: 我同意。好的，我们还有10分钟。我们用一些问答来结束吧。

Any questions for Chris? We'll do some rapid fire. There is Chris's Twitter right there. Chris有什么问题吗？我们来快速问答。Chris的Twitter就在那里。

Please make sure to subscribe. We did talk about gold for a bit. 请务必订阅。我们确实谈了一会儿黄金。

If you rewind uh spend some time talking about gold but any Q&A on specific stocks macro concepts Chris will try to answer it in whichever 如果你倒回去，嗯，花点时间听听关于黄金的讨论，但任何关于特定股票、宏观概念的问答，Chris都会尽力回答。

Chris: I think I think the best thing that I can not like make a prediction but the best thing I could say is I think we are headed into a lower rate environment（低利率环境: 利率普遍较低的经济状况） next year like it's very it's very obvious to me all the things that are happening number one you've got shelter（住房成本: 居住相关的费用） rolling over number two you've got energy prices（能源价格: 石油、天然气等能源商品的市场价格） like if you look at energy price Last year they were like $75 a barrel for oil. Chris: 我认为，我能说的最好的事情，不是预测，而是我认为我们明年将进入一个低利率环境，这对我来说非常明显，所有正在发生的事情，首先是住房成本正在回落，其次是能源价格，比如你看去年的能源价格，石油每桶75美元。

Now it's like 55 56. So ton of ton of movement towards a disinflationary environment（通胀放缓环境: 通货膨胀率下降但仍为正值的经济状况）. 现在大约是55到56美元。所以有大量的趋势指向通胀放缓环境。

You know there's also fears around growth slowing down. Then there's technology which is super deflationary（通货紧缩: 物价普遍下降，货币购买力上升） coming in. 你知道，也有人担心增长放缓。然后是技术，它带来了超强的通货紧缩效应。

Jobs market is cooling off. So all the all the people that are like inflation inflation inflation is going to reaccelerate just shut up relax. 就业市场正在降温。所以所有那些说通胀通胀通胀会再次加速的人，都闭嘴放松吧。

Like it's not. So, you know, 就像它不会。所以，你知道，

Amit Kukreja: that doesn't even take into account AI being deflationary. Amit Kukreja: 这甚至没有考虑到人工智能的通货紧缩效应。

Chris: Yeah. There's so many things that tell me that. Like I said, everyone is everyone is looking at like the 1970s and trying to like repeat that and say, "Oh, look, we had a second bout of inflation because like the first time we didn't control it, blah blah." Chris: 是的。有很多事情告诉我这一点。就像我说的，每个人都在看1970年代，试图重复那个情况，然后说：“哦，看，我们又经历了一次通胀，因为第一次我们没有控制住，等等。”

And I'm like, "Yeah, but look at energy prices." The one thing you got to give to Trump is that dude, he's jawboning（口头干预: 政府官员通过公开言论影响市场或企业行为） the hell out of everyone and just making sure that oil prices stay where stay at a nice sustainable low level so that this way inflation doesn't run rampid. 我就会说：“是的，但看看能源价格。”你不得不承认特朗普的一点是，伙计，他正在口头干预所有人，确保油价保持在一个良好、可持续的低水平，这样通胀就不会失控。

So yes, are there more input costs（投入成本: 生产商品或服务所需的成本） from goods that are coming in from tariffs（关税: 对进口商品征收的税费）? Absolutely. 所以，是的，来自关税商品的投入成本是否更多？绝对是。

But then on the other hand, you got aggregate demand destruction（总需求破坏: 经济中商品和服务总需求的大幅下降） from all the all the the deportations. 但另一方面，所有这些驱逐出境导致了总需求破坏。

So population growth is going down. Uh energy prices are much lower. 所以人口增长正在下降。嗯，能源价格低得多。

So logistics costs（物流成本: 运输、仓储等供应链环节的费用） are down, right? Uh credit（信贷: 银行和金融机构向个人或企业提供的贷款） now is starting to roll over. 所以物流成本下降了，对吧？嗯，信贷现在开始回落。

So that's another thing. So you know, and then and then you have all the liquidity that's being pulled off of the consumer from the government, which is no longer doing housing moratoriums and rent rent uh rent moratoriums and now people are going to have to pay more for their health care because ACA（平价医疗法案: 美国一项旨在扩大医疗保险覆盖范围的法律） 所以那是另一件事。所以你知道，然后政府正在从消费者那里抽走所有流动性，不再进行住房暂停和租金暂停，现在人们将不得不为他们的医疗保健支付更多费用，因为平价医疗法案（ACA）。

Amit Kukreja: student loans（学生贷款: 用于支付教育费用的贷款）, student loans（学生贷款: 用于支付教育费用的贷款） are back online. I mean, dude, the consumer right now is getting hit from every single side. Amit Kukreja: 学生贷款，学生贷款又上线了。我的意思是，伙计，现在的消费者正受到四面八方的打击。

You're telling me that, hey, all of a sudden they're going to go out there and spend more money. 你告诉我，嘿，他们突然会出去花更多的钱。

Like, no, credit's tightening（信贷收紧: 银行和金融机构减少贷款供应或提高贷款标准）. Sorry, inflation's not not not the problem that we have to really worry about. 不，信贷正在收紧。抱歉，通货膨胀不是我们真正需要担心的问题。

And I think um there's this video by Steven Moran if you want to see something that just came out today. 而且我想，嗯，如果你想看今天刚发布的一些东西，可以看看史蒂文·莫兰的这个视频。

I actually got it queued up. Let me just put it. 我实际上已经排队了。让我放出来。

Stephen Mirren, now Moran, sorry. Jay Powell signaled that the Fed is on track for another move. 史蒂芬·米伦，现在是莫兰，抱歉。杰伊·鲍威尔暗示美联储即将采取下一步行动。

Are you expecting it's 25 basis points（基点: 衡量利率或收益率变化的单位，1个基点等于0.01%）? Should it be 50? 你预计是25个基点吗？应该是50个吗？

Chris: Yeah. Well, my view is that it should be 50. However, I expect it to be an additional 25. Chris: 是的。嗯，我的观点是应该降息50个基点。然而，我预计会再降息25个基点。

Uh, and I think that we're probably set up for for for three 25 basis point cuts this year for a total of 75 basis points this year. 嗯，我认为我们今年可能会有三次25个基点的降息，总计75个基点。

Uh, you know, but I think that look, it would be really helpful to have the economic data in order to be able to make the decisions we need to make. 嗯，你知道，但我认为，看，拥有经济数据对于我们做出必要的决策会非常有帮助。

Uh, certainly we would want to be inspecting the economy for signs of for signs of moves lower in inflation, for signs of changes in the job market. 嗯，我们当然会希望检查经济，寻找通胀下降的迹象，寻找就业市场变化的迹象。

But without those data, we still have to make a decision anyway. 但没有这些数据，我们无论如何都必须做出决定。

And so we'll have to rely upon our forecasts for doing so. 所以我们必须依靠我们的预测来这样做。

Amit Kukreja: And and what did you Okay, cool. So we we we heard him yesterday on CNBC as well. Amit Kukreja: 那么你，好的，太棒了。我们昨天也在CNBC上听到了他的讲话。

I mean, he is the most bullish out of all the other Fed presidents. 我的意思是，他是所有美联储主席中最看涨的。

The question is just if we'll actually get three cuts. Um Okay, let's do some rapid fire on some stocks. 问题只是我们是否真的会得到三次降息。嗯，好的，我们来快速问答一些股票。

So Chris, you you've talked about VG over and over again. So just quick thoughts on this. 所以Chris，你一次又一次地谈到VG。那么对此有什么快速的想法吗？

Are you buying the dip or you just holding steady on this? 你是逢低买入还是只是稳健持有？

Chris: Yeah, longterm great business generates cash. Chris: 是的，长期来看，这是一家很棒的业务，能产生现金。

Amit Kukreja: Cool. Uh woman. Yeah. Amit Kukreja: 酷。嗯，女人。是的。

Chris: Irene, are you touching this one? Chris: Irene，你碰这个了吗？

Amit Kukreja: Not really. I I don't really know much about the business, so I couldn't tell you. Amit Kukreja: 不太。我不太了解这个业务，所以我无法告诉你。

Uh, that's Sam. Sam has been talking about that. I don't know much about it. 嗯，那是萨姆。萨姆一直在谈论那个。我不太了解。

So, 所以，

Chris: okay. Do you still have as bro? Chris: 好的。你还有兄弟吗？

Amit Kukreja: I do. I do. Amit Kukreja: 我有。我有。

Chris: You're not taking profits here? I mean, Chris: 你不在这里获利了结吗？我的意思是，

Amit Kukreja: no, bro. This thing is up. Like, Amit Kukreja: 不，兄弟。这东西涨了。就像，

Chris: no. And if if uh you want to know something, I'm going super long on Verizon. See? Chris: 不。而且如果你想知道一些事情，我正在超长线看涨威瑞森。看到了吗？

Amit Kukreja: Okay. Okay. So, you're doing you're doing both together. Amit Kukreja: 好的。好的。所以，你正在同时进行这两件事。

Chris: That's right. Telecom, baby. That's where you want to be. Chris: 没错。电信，宝贝。那就是你想要去的地方。

Amit Kukreja: I'm surprised you're not selling your ESTs. You were that convicted that you were choosing to hold on. Amit Kukreja: 我很惊讶你没有卖掉你的ESTs。你如此确信，选择继续持有。

Chris: It's the easiest business model to understand. It's literally se sell towers in space. Chris: 这是最容易理解的商业模式。它实际上就是出售空间中的信号塔。

Like, 就像，

Amit Kukreja: all right. There you go. Amit Kukreja: 好的。就是这样。

Chris: Sell towers in space, dude. They get fixed fees that are contracted down. Chris: 卖掉空间中的信号塔，伙计。他们得到的是固定的、合同规定的费用。

I mean, Bell can Verizon just had that deal with them. Bell Canada is talking about it's it's a great business model. 我的意思是，贝尔加拿大（Bell Canada）刚刚和他们达成了那笔交易。贝尔加拿大正在谈论这是一个很棒的商业模式。

You know, 你知道，

Amit Kukreja: uh Amazon, are you a buyer? Amit Kukreja: 嗯，亚马逊，你是买家吗？

Chris: I'm going to let it uh come down a little bit more. Uh mainly because Amazon's got two major headwinds. Chris: 我会让它再跌一点。主要是因为亚马逊面临两大逆风。

One, it's AWS（亚马逊网络服务: 亚马逊提供的云计算服务） business. It's still growing, but it's losing a little bit of steam compared to GCP（谷歌云平台: 谷歌提供的云计算服务） and Azure（微软Azure: 微软提供的云计算服务）. 第一，它的AWS（亚马逊网络服务: 亚马逊提供的云计算服务）业务。它仍在增长，但与GCP（谷歌云平台: 谷歌提供的云计算服务）和Azure（微软Azure: 微软提供的云计算服务）相比，它正在失去一些势头。

And people are worried about the consumer, which you know, Amazon, that's a core business. 人们担心消费者，你知道，亚马逊，那是一个核心业务。

So, you know, people are like, I don't know if I want to be in this too much. 所以，你知道，人们会想，我不知道我是否想过多地参与其中。

So, yeah, but it is it's trading for a really good value. 所以，是的，但它的交易价值确实很好。

Amit Kukreja: Yeah, especially on a EV to eBay basis（企业价值与息税折旧摊销前利润之比: 一种估值指标）. I would agree. Amit Kukreja: 是的，特别是在企业价值与息税折旧摊销前利润之比的基础上。我同意。

Nebas and Corwe, would you touch any of those right here or No, Nebius和CoreWeave，你现在会碰这些吗？还是不碰？

Chris: it's not my forte（专长: 个人擅长的领域）, man. That's all Sam. Chris: 那不是我的专长，伙计。那是萨姆的领域。

Sam is like there are certain there's certain um industries that I think other people have done a really good job of covering and Sam has done the deep dive and all all of Nebius's business segments and data centers and all that stuff. 萨姆就像是，有些行业我认为其他人做得非常好，萨姆已经深入研究了Nebius的所有业务部门、数据中心以及所有这些东西。

So I've kind of just like substituted my my own research to him and just if he tells me it's good, it's good. 所以我有点像把我的研究交给他了，只要他告诉我好，那就是好。

If it's not good, it's not good. So you know, we'll just go based I'll just I would just say caution against listening to me about it. 如果不好，那就是不好。所以你知道，我们只会根据，我只会说，要小心不要听我的。

Just ask someone like Sam. 就问萨姆这样的人。

Amit Kukreja: UNH continue to hold. Amit Kukreja: UNH继续持有。

Chris: Uh yeah. Yeah. UNH is good. Recession resistant（抗衰退: 在经济衰退时期表现相对稳定的企业或行业）. Chris: 嗯，是的。是的。UNH不错。抗衰退。

So if we do get any weakness, they'll do good. Um they've also got a massive amount of debt on the balance sheet that they can manage, but their debt um you know, if interest rates come down, it's easier to finance it. 所以如果出现任何疲软，他们会表现良好。嗯，他们的资产负债表上也有大量的债务，他们可以管理，但他们的债务，嗯，你知道，如果利率下降，融资会更容易。

So yeah, UNH is fine. They've got they've got to deal with some uh regulatory changes（监管变化: 政府对行业或市场规则的调整） that from the Biden era that they're hopefully going to get their hands around. 所以是的，UNH没问题。他们必须处理一些拜登时代遗留的监管变化，希望他们能解决。

But one thing you're going to start to see is premiums（保费: 购买保险所需支付的费用）. If people here haven't already saw some of what the premiums are going to be looking like for not just for United Healthcare, if you have that health insurance, but any health insurance, it's going to be a lot higher next year. 但你将开始看到的一件事是保费。如果这里的人还没有看到，明年不仅是联合健康（United Healthcare）的保费，如果你有那份健康保险，任何健康保险的保费都会高很多。

So, just letting you all know right now, better save up. Is is Oscar（奥斯卡健康: 一家健康保险公司） a play on the eventual capitulation（投降: 市场参与者在巨大亏损后放弃持仓的行为） of this shutdown or do you think that one could get wrecked easily if it's not favored? 所以，现在就告诉大家，最好多存点钱。奥斯卡健康（Oscar）是押注这次政府停摆最终投降的投资吗？还是你认为如果它不受青睐，很容易就会被摧毁？

Chris: No, I think it'll do I could I think I think at this point the ACA subsidy extensions（平价医疗法案补贴延期: 延长根据ACA提供的医疗保险补贴） are almost a guarantee. Chris: 不，我认为它会成功。我想，我认为目前平价医疗法案补贴延期几乎是板上钉钉的事。

Like it's way too important for the Republicans uh to have the ACA because there's just so many members that in their local districts that are utilizing the ACA subsidies. 对共和党来说，拥有平价医疗法案太重要了，因为在他们的选区里有太多成员正在使用平价医疗法案补贴。

Now, this is something that Marjorie Taylor Green said, which actually made a lot more sense. 现在，这是马乔丽·泰勒·格林说的一件事，实际上更有道理。

She's like, "Look, we can talk about getting rid of these subsidies, but we can't do it cold turkey（突然戒断: 突然停止某种习惯或行为）, right? 她就像在说：“看，我们可以谈论取消这些补贴，但我们不能突然停止，对吧？”

We can't just say, "Hey, get used to these subsidies for the last 5 years and then all of a sudden be like, yeah, you know what? 我们不能只是说：“嘿，过去五年你已经习惯了这些补贴，然后突然说，是的，你知道吗？

Now you got to stand on your two legs." 现在你得靠自己了。”

Amit Kukreja: Like, no, you got to you got to give people an offramp（退出机制: 允许人们逐步退出某种情况或政策的机制）. And especially while inflation and uh uh has basically wrecked a lot of people's bal, you know, um uh finances over the last two three years, you got to get people a chance to adjust. Amit Kukreja: 不，你必须给人们一个退出机制。尤其是在过去两三年里，通货膨胀和，嗯，嗯，基本上摧毁了许多人的财务状况，你必须给人们一个调整的机会。

So, 所以，

Chris: are you buying next decade? Chris: 你在买下一个十年吗？

Amit Kukreja: Uh not really. I' I've already got too much exposure to next decade. Amit Kukreja: 嗯，不太。我已经对下一个十年有太多风险敞口了。

So, next decade in venture global（全球风险投资: 一家液化天然气公司） I have in spades. So, I'm not really going to add to it. 所以，在全球风险投资方面，我有很多。所以，我不会再增加了。

Chris: Okay. So, you own it, but you're not adding more. Gotcha. Chris: 好的。所以你拥有它，但不再增加了。明白了。

Amit Kukreja: No. Um, all right. I think that's pretty much it. Amit Kukreja: 不。嗯，好的。我想差不多就是这样了。

Is there any stocks that are on your radar that you would think people should look at? 你有没有关注的股票，你认为人们应该关注的？

Any broader concepts or just rates coming down should be a tailwind long term? 有没有更广泛的概念，或者仅仅是利率下降长期来看应该是一个顺风？

Chris: I think people need to look at yields（收益率: 投资回报率）. Yields（收益率: 投资回报率） is where I would focus on next year. Chris: 我认为人们需要关注收益率。收益率是我明年会关注的重点。

So, number one, the valuation on the S&P（标准普尔500指数: 衡量美国500家大型上市公司股票表现的指数） is really, really high, which means that there's going to be people who want to kind of like move into a little bit of safety. 所以，首先，标普指数的估值非常非常高，这意味着会有人想要转向一些安全资产。

2026 is also a midterm year（中期选举年: 美国总统任期中间的国会选举年）. Uh those are not usually very very delightful for the market. 2026年也是中期选举年。嗯，那些通常对市场来说不是非常非常令人愉快的年份。

Amit Kukreja: Those are actually horrible years for the market to be honest. They're not good years at all. Amit Kukreja: 老实说，那些对市场来说实际上是糟糕的年份。根本不是好年份。

Chris: Yeah. So, you know, you want to be in safety and so there are companies out there that have really good safety profiles from cash flow（现金流: 资金流入和流出企业的情况） perspective that you want to look at and then you want to look at the yields that you could get. Chris: 是的。所以，你知道，你想要安全，所以有一些公司从现金流的角度来看具有非常好的安全状况，你想要关注它们，然后你想要关注你可以获得的收益率。

So on average the S&P yields between seven and 9% every year for the last you know however many years. 所以平均而言，标普指数在过去这些年里每年产生7%到9%的收益。

Um the only thing is it also really depends on the entry price. 嗯，唯一的问题是，这还真的取决于入场价格。

So if you enter at the wrong time when valuations are super high you're almost guaranteed to underperform the market long term. 所以如果你在估值超高的时候错误地入场，你几乎可以肯定长期会跑输市场。

So it's a good idea right now in my opinion if rates are projected to come down to lock in those yields now. 所以在我看来，如果预计利率会下降，现在锁定这些收益率是个好主意。

Right. So there are dividend companies（派息公司: 定期向股东支付股息的公司） out there right now that are doing se seven% in I mean 7% qualified dividends（合格股息: 符合特定税收优惠条件的股息） that you know for someone who's done really really well this year you want to take a little bit of money off the top you know like put it into some safe industries that's where you want to look you know and that's where I'm looking anyway so 对。所以现在有一些派息公司，它们的合格股息达到了7%，我的意思是7%的合格股息，你知道，对于今年表现非常好的人来说，你想要从中拿出一小部分钱，你知道，比如把它投入一些安全的行业，那就是你想要关注的地方，你知道，无论如何，那也是我正在关注的地方。

Amit Kukreja: uh someone said UPS and Verizon dividend monster so UPS I am not a big fan of only because they're unionized（工会化: 员工加入工会） at this point. Amit Kukreja: 嗯，有人说UPS和威瑞森是股息巨头，但我不太喜欢UPS，只因为它们目前是工会化的。

And so anytime they make a little bit more money, the union kind of just says, "Hey, I want more money. Give me more money." 所以每当他们多赚一点钱，工会就会说：“嘿，我要更多钱。给我更多钱。”

You know, so definitely not a UPS um UPS guy. But Verizon's good. 你知道，所以肯定不是UPS的，嗯，UPS的人。但威瑞森不错。

Verizon, you know, economy goes down. What do you think? People going to cancel their cell phone plans? 威瑞森，你知道，经济下行。你觉得呢？人们会取消他们的手机套餐吗？

No. Yeah. And then uh there's also this general trend that's happening with a lot of people switching over from cable to fixed wireless broadband access（固定无线宽带接入: 通过无线技术提供宽带互联网服务）. 不。是的。然后，嗯，还有一个普遍趋势，很多人从有线电视转向固定无线宽带接入。

That's a tailwind for these guys. And then when you look at their credit profiles, they have a lot of debt on the balance sheet, but the debt is manageable because of their strong cash flows. 这对这些人来说是一个利好。然后当你查看他们的信用状况时，他们的资产负债表上有很多债务，但由于他们强劲的现金流，这些债务是可控的。

But at the other end of it, if you cut interest rates, the debt servicing（偿债: 支付债务利息和本金） becomes cheaper. 但另一方面，如果你降低利率，偿债成本就会变得更低。

They just got a new CEO. And there's a whole lot of due diligence that I've done on Verizon. 他们刚刚上任了一位新CEO。而且我对威瑞森做了大量的尽职调查。

And so I'm I'm actually I've been building a position in Verizon. 所以，我实际上一直在建立威瑞森的头寸。

I actually took another bigger chunk today as well. So yeah. 我今天也又买了一大笔。所以是的。

市场收盘与总结

Okay, there we go. Thank you everybody for joining. This was our third Macro Thursday with Mr. Chris Patel. 好的，就是这样。感谢大家的加入。这是我们与Chris Patel先生的第三次宏观星期四。

I'm putting his Twitter right here in the chat and we'll be back tomorrow. See what happens for 我把他的Twitter放在这里聊天里，我们明天会回来。看看会发生什么。

Chris: later, guys. Have a good one. Chris: 再见，各位。祝你们愉快。

Amit Kukreja: Later, Chris. Thank you. Appreciate you. Later. Later. Amit Kukreja: 再见，Chris。谢谢你。感谢你。再见。再见。

All right, folks. That is it for the day. We are done. Um, tomorrow's Friday. 好的，各位。今天就到这里。我们结束了。嗯，明天是星期五。

I'll be back tomorrow on the market open. We'll have a daily recap in a couple hours. 我明天会在市场开盘时回来。几个小时后我们会有一个每日回顾。

Uh, talk more about the regional bank stuff on that daily recap. So, we'll get into that. 嗯，在每日回顾中会更多地谈论区域性银行的事情。所以，我们会深入探讨。

Look, in general, I I personally don't think Zions and Western Alliance are creating some structural problem with credit in the United States, but that's how the market's reacting. 看，总的来说，我个人不认为Zions和Western Alliance正在给美国的信贷造成结构性问题，但市场就是这样反应的。

And you know, if the market's going to react like that, then the market's going to react like that. 而且你知道，如果市场要那样反应，那么市场就会那样反应。

But there's not much we can do until that is kind of resolved. We do have a quote from Trump on uh well on beef. 但在问题解决之前，我们能做的并不多。我们确实有特朗普关于，嗯，关于牛肉的引述。

Trump: It's such a big category. Everything follows. So just about everything follows. 特朗普：这是一个如此大的类别。一切都随之而来。所以几乎所有事情都随之而来。

And we are working on beef and I think we have a deal on beef that's going to bring the price of beef. 我们正在努力解决牛肉问题，我认为我们已经达成了一项牛肉协议，这将降低牛肉的价格。

That would be the one one product that we would say is uh a little bit higher than we want it. 那将是我们认为，嗯，价格比我们希望的略高的一种产品。

Maybe higher than we want it. And that's going to be coming down pretty soon, too. 也许比我们希望的要高。而且很快也会降下来。

We did something. We worked our magic. But groceries are down and energy is down. 我们做了些事情。我们施展了魔法。但杂货价格下降了，能源价格也下降了。

Electricity is way down. Uh we have the prices coming down for people. 电费大幅下降。嗯，我们正在为人们降低价格。

They were they were abused for four years by the Biden administration. 他们被拜登政府虐待了四年。

Uh thank you very much everybody. We'll see you soon. Thank you. 嗯，非常感谢大家。我们很快再见。谢谢。

Speaker: For the IRS. 发言人：为了国税局。

Amit Kukreja: Okay. Beef. Are there beef futures? No, there's cattle futures（活牛期货: 以活牛为标的物的期货合约）. Amit Kukreja: 好的。牛肉。有牛肉期货吗？不，有活牛期货。

Are they green? Are cattle futures green right now? They're up a little bit. 它们是绿色的吗？活牛期货现在是绿色的吗？它们小幅上涨。

Cattle futures are up a little bit. I don't know what deal we got on beef, but Steve is going to like this. 活牛期货小幅上涨。我不知道我们在牛肉上达成了什么协议，但史蒂夫会喜欢这个的。

Yeah, Steve's going to love it. Steve is gonna love it. There you go. 是的，史蒂夫会喜欢的。史蒂夫会喜欢的。看吧。

Cattle futures up point4%. 活牛期货上涨0.4%。

All right, speaking of Steve, I'll be live on Steve's channel at 9:30. 好的，说到史蒂夫，我将在9:30在史蒂夫的频道上直播。

We're gonna do something every Thursday. So, uh, 9:30 to 10:30, we'll just chop it up about markets, whatever. 我们每周四都会做点什么。所以，嗯，9:30到10:30，我们就会聊聊市场，随便什么。

Steve will probably be on, uh, after 10:30 just talking with you guys, but I'll be with him usually on Thursdays and we'll start the first one of those today. 史蒂夫可能会在10:30之后上线，只是和你们聊天，但我通常会在周四和他一起，我们今天将开始第一次这样的节目。

And that's pretty much it. Then we'll be back tomorrow. 差不多就是这样了。然后我们明天会回来。

Uh, Dunce, thank you for the super chat right here. Ash, thank you for becoming a channel member. 嗯，Dunce，谢谢你的超级聊天。Ash，谢谢你成为频道会员。

Karen, thank you as well for becoming a channel member. Dun says, "Uh, this is the last market open for me. Karen，也谢谢你成为频道会员。Dun说：“嗯，这是我最后一次参加市场开盘节目了。

I got a job starting Monday, so I can't be here during the day." Love you though. 我周一开始上班，所以白天不能来了。”不过我爱你。

Dunce, appreciate you, man. Congrats on the job. The job is way more important than being here watching every day. Dunce，感谢你，伙计。恭喜你找到工作。工作比每天在这里观看重要得多。

So, hopefully you can catch the daily recap and get caught up on everything, but appreciate you being here. 所以，希望你能看到每日回顾，了解所有情况，但感谢你在这里。

And congrats on the job as well. Um, all right, I think we're done. 也恭喜你找到工作。嗯，好的，我想我们结束了。

That is pretty much it. We'll be back again tomorrow morning. 差不多就是这样了。我们明天早上会再回来。

Can't believe it's Friday, bro. This was a quick week. This one felt like an It felt like it was slow, but it was really quick. 不敢相信今天是星期五，兄弟。这周过得真快。感觉很慢，但实际上很快。

Particularly because we were up on Monday, recovered from Friday, down on Tuesday, up on Wednesday, down in day, then we were up today, then we went down today with the whole regional bank thing. 特别是周一我们上涨了，从周五反弹，周二下跌，周三上涨，日内下跌，然后我们今天上涨了，然后又因为区域性银行的事情下跌了。

And so, I guess we'll see how we end this out on Friday. Ryan says, "Bro, just watch at work." 所以，我想我们看看周五会如何收盘。Ryan说：“兄弟，上班的时候看就行了。”

Okay, not everyone can just put in their earphones and not do anything at work like some of you guys. 好的，不是每个人都能像你们某些人一样，戴上耳机在工作时什么都不做。

I say that because I used to be one of those people that like not not work per se, but one of the clients that I had that I would consult with like there'd be there would be some hours where I'd be like, "Dude, I'm checked out. 我这么说是因为我曾经是那种，嗯，不是说不工作，而是我有一个客户，我为他提供咨询时，有时我会说：“伙计，我下班了。

I'm not doing anything right now. I'm just because if you get your work done within like an hour and you're on you're on the docket for four hours. 我现在什么都不做。我只是因为如果你在一个小时内完成工作，而你的日程表上是四个小时。

I mean, you got three hours left. Like what are you going to do? Like you're going to do more work?" 我的意思是，你还有三个小时。你要做什么？比如你要做更多工作吗？”

No, you're not getting paid for more work. You're getting paid for is the same amount of work that you finished because you were an efficient worker. 不，你不会因为做更多工作而得到报酬。你得到报酬是因为你高效地完成了相同数量的工作。

Philip says, "I feel seen." 菲利普说：“我感觉被看到了。”

That's what happens, bro. That's what happens. So, 就是这样，兄弟。就是这样。所以，

there you go. All right. I'll be back tomorrow. And I think that's uh I think that's pretty much it. 就这样吧。好的。我明天会回来。我想，嗯，我想差不多就是这样了。

Yeah. I don't think there's anything else. I mean, we'll have the daily recap out, but I think this regional thing was an issue. 是的。我想没有什么别的了。我的意思是，我们会发布每日回顾，但我认为这个区域性问题确实存在。

We'll see if it continues to be an issue, but if it's not, then we should be good to go. 我们会看看它是否会继续成为一个问题，但如果不是，那么我们应该没问题。

We work for our portfolios. Exactly. Exactly. Let me link Steve's channel for those that don't have it. 我们为我们的投资组合工作。没错。没错。让我把史蒂夫的频道链接给那些没有的人。

Uh, deep dive will be coming out tomorrow. So, again, if you want to subscribe to the Substack（Substack: 一个允许作者发布新闻通讯和博客的平台）, I'll put it right there. 嗯，深度分析明天会发布。所以，再次强调，如果你想订阅Substack，我把它放在那里。

There's Steve's Oh, I gave you his Twitter, but I'll put up his YouTube. 那是史蒂夫的，哦，我给了你他的Twitter，但我会放上他的YouTube。

And I'll be on with him at 9:30 today. 9:30. 我今天9:30会和他一起。9:30。

and then we'll be done. And then the Substack link that is right here. 然后我们就完成了。然后Substack链接就在这里。

All right, that's it for me. Thank everybody. Appreciate it. Means the world. 好的，我这边就到这里。谢谢大家。非常感谢。意义重大。

Tooth is doing really good. I actually have a checkup with the dentist on October 28th, the day after my birthday. 牙齿恢复得很好。我实际上在10月28日，也就是我生日的第二天，有一个牙医检查。

So, I'm going to have to leave the market open a little early that day, but it is after the market open, which is a good thing. 所以，那天我得早点离开市场开盘，但那是在市场开盘之后，这是好事。

And uh yeah, the tooth is going good and we'll keep going from there. 嗯，是的，牙齿恢复得很好，我们会继续努力。

All right. Thank you everybody. Appreciate it. I'll see you guys tomorrow. 好的。谢谢大家。非常感谢。我明天见。

on the market opens. See you later tonight on Steve's show and daily recap out in a few hours. 在市场开盘时。今晚晚些时候在史蒂夫的节目中见，每日回顾几个小时后发布。

Bye everyone. Have a good one. 大家再见。祝你们愉快。