投资哲学的进化:从激进主义到长期持有
主持人: 非常感谢你能来到 All-In 现场。你无疑是一位传奇人物。在过去的几年、几个月里,你的投资哲学似乎发生了变化。过去你更像是一个激进投资者(Activist Investor),频繁进出头寸,但最近你谈到了更多关于永久性长期持有的内容。我很想听听这是否真的是一种转变,以及你的投资模型是如何随时间演变的。
Original English
Host: So thank you so much for being here. We've tried a number of times to get you to All-In and it's great to finally have you. You obviously are a legend that doesn't need much of an introduction lately in the last number of call it years or months or quarters or what have you. It seems like your investment philosophy may be changing your model where you've been activist and you've entered positions and exited positions and lately you've talked a lot about more kind of permanent long-term holdings. Would love to hear a little bit about if that is actually a change and how your evolution and your investment model has kind of changed over time.
Bill Ackman: 当然。我会说最大的变化是随时间推移,我对业务质量(Business Quality)的重要性有了更深的理解——即长期持久、受保护、不可颠覆的增长。在早期,你是一个规模较小、流动性较强的投资者,不需要考虑那么长远。但当你成为一个规模巨大、持股集中的投资者时,你会逐渐意识到持久增长才是最重要的因素。
我依然和以前一样激进,但更多的激进表现是在 Twitter(现为 X)上,而不是在企业内部。原因在于,我刚创办 Pershing Square 时,没人知道我们是谁。我们的第一笔投资之一是 Wendy's,它当时拥有加拿大咖啡连锁店 Tim Hortons,而后者的价值甚至超过了整个 Wendy's。我们的想法很简单:买入 Wendy's,分拆 Tim Hortons,让资金翻倍。我给 CEO 打电话,他不回;再打,还是不回。我根本联系不上他。后来我找了 Blackstone 的朋友 Steve Schwarzman 写了一份关于分拆价值的公平意见书,公开提交后六周,他们就完成了分拆。那位 CEO 最终回了电话,他被解雇了,但他感谢我,因为他拿到了巨额的离职补偿,非常开心。
Original English
Bill Ackman: Sure. So I would say the biggest change over time is an appreciation for the importance of I call business quality—long-term durable protected non-disruptible growth. I would say early days you're smaller more liquid investor. You don't have to think as long term as you become a bigger concentrated investor. And over time you learn the importance of durable kind of growth. That's the most important factor. I would say I'm as activist as I've ever been. But more of it's on Twitter than I would say in the corporate context. And the reason for that is when I started in Pershing Square, no one sort of knew who we were. And so I actually one of our first investments was Wendy's International. Wendy's owned Tim Hortons, the Canadian coffee and donut chain. And the value of Tim Hortons was more than the entire value of Wendy's. So we had this very simple idea. Buy Wendy's spin-off Tim Horton's double our money. And I called the CEO and he didn't return my call and I called him again. He didn't return my call. I literally couldn't get a return phone call. That was the beginning. So we actually called a friend who worked at Blackstone and Steve Schwarzman agreed to write a fairness opinion on what Wendy's would be worth if we spun off Tim Hortons. We kind of mailed it in and filed it publicly and 6 weeks later they spun off. And then the CEO finally called me back and he thanked me. He had gotten fired, but he thanked me cuz he had a huge exit package and he was very happy.
AI 时代的商业模式与颠覆风险
主持人: 接着刚才与 OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar 的对话,你是 AI 领域的投资者吗?你是如何从外部评估整个 AI 综合体的商业模式质量的?
Original English
Host: I just want to connect this last conversation with Sarah to this. Um, are you an investor in the AI complex and how do you underwrite business model quality from what you see on the outside in the entire complex?
Bill Ackman: 实际上,我们今天持有 Microsoft、Meta 和 Amazon。我认为你现在要么是直接或间接地投资于 AI,要么 AI 就是一个威胁。作为一名集中型投资者,最重要也最挑战的事情是确定颠覆风险(Risk of Disruption)。
现在有两个人在车库里搞出新玩意的风险大大增加了。这是历史上建立企业最好的时代,有无限的算力和资本,还有天才的人才,这意味着你被颠覆的可能性大幅提高。这就是我们花最多时间研究的地方。有趣的是,市场总是盯着最新奇的东西,比如芯片、半导体和能源,短期资本都涌向那里,导致一些高质量的公司被冷落。这和 2000 年互联网泡沫时期有些类似,当时人们觉得伯克希尔·哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway)是老古董,估值跌至历史最低。我认为今天对于 Amazon、Meta 和 Microsoft 来说,某种程度上也在发生类似的事情。
Original English
Bill Ackman: I mean, yes, effectively we're an investor. Actually today we own Microsoft, we own Meta, we own Amazon. Uh actually I think you're either directly or indirectly you're invested in AI. Or it's a threat. So you have to understand it. How do I think about AI in a business model context? Look, when you're a concentrated investor or investor generally and your long-term investor, the most important and most challenging thing to do is determine what's the risk of disruption. What's the risk of two guys, two women from Stanford in a garage, you know, coming up with something? That risk, I think, has gone up dramatically. This is the greatest era in history to build a business, right? There's unlimited access to compute, certainly for a startup, unlimited access to capital, and a lot of incredible talent, which means that the probability of your being disrupted has gone up enormously. So the hardest thing you have to do as an investor is understand that's really where we spend most of our time. What's interesting about markets is people always bring their eye to the new new thing. Um and the new new thing is sort of chips and semiconductors and energy and that's where the shorter term capital's going. What tends to happen is really high quality things get left behind.
风险投资式承销:SpaceX 与 OpenAI
主持人: 那么对于像 SpaceX、OpenAI、Palantir 这种估值极高(营收的 50 倍、100 倍甚至更多)的公司,有没有办法进行承销?还是说因为需求端太强,它们被严重高估了?
Original English
Host: Is there any way to underwrite 100 times revenue, 50 times revenue, 150 times revenue in these companies or are these just tremendously overvalued because of the demand side?
Bill Ackman: 我认为承销 SpaceX 的方式就像承销一笔风险投资(Venture Capital)。我有一位商学院教授教过我:“人、机会、环境、交易(People, Opportunity, Context, Deal)”。在“人”这一项,SpaceX 是独一无二的;在“机会”和“环境”上,也非常出色。剩下的就是“交易”:虽然我们不知道最终估值是多少,但你可以想象 5 年后的公司规模,Starlink 的轨迹如何?SpaceX 在低成本空间发射领域近乎垄断,这在 AI 时代会越来越重要。我也投资了 X 和 xAI。
至于 OpenAI 和 Anthropic,它们也是风险投资,虽然已经到了 D 轮或 E 轮。这些公司已经证明了它们能产生巨额营收。我对 Sarah Friar 关于资本投入的解释印象深刻,但在 OpenAI 身上还没听到类似的清晰逻辑。
Original English
Bill Ackman: I think you underwrite a SpaceX the way you underwrite a venture capital investment. So, everyone here invests in venture, right? You bet on who's running it, right? The talent is enormous. Um, it's people. They taught me, I had a professor business school. He said, "People, opportunity, context, deal." So on people, SpaceX, one of one. Opportunity, one of one. Context, incredible. Then you get to deal. That's the more complicated question for SpaceX. If you're a billion, a trillion, 750 billion, then you say, okay, well, let's think 5 years out. What does this company look like? What is Starlink? What's the trajectory of Starlink? SpaceX is near monopoly in terms of low cost space launch. Anthropic, OpenAI fall into this category. They're venture investments that what what's helpful is they're not seed or series A, right? They're D or E, but they're still like venture investments. These companies have proven they can generate a lot of revenues.
创始人的天然优势
主持人: 我们看到在变化的环境中,创始人领军(Founder-led)的公司往往表现更好。你是否研究过创始人领军与非创始人领军公司的差异?特别是在面对“SAS 大灾难”时,非创始人领军的 CEO 往往更有动机“不犯错”以免被解雇,而创始人则更关注公司的生死存亡。
Original English
Host: Have you looked at founder-led companies versus non-founder-led companies where perhaps the founders really do have an inherent advantage in being able to navigate these changing environments? If you're not founder led, you have an incentive to not make a mistake and get fired. If you're founder led, your job is to make sure the company persists.
Bill Ackman: 我认为答案正如你所说。标准普尔 500 指数公司的 CEO 平均任期可能只有三四年,他们关注短期薪酬,且通常没有巨大的经济利益。而创始人把整个人生和名誉都押在上面。在董事会里,创始人的权威来自投票权或巨大的经济利害。
当我们加入一家公司董事会时,通常是最大的非指数基金股东,这给了我们不成比例的话语权。想象一下如果你既是 CEO 又是大股东。此外,成功的创始人通常都在关键时刻做对了几次极具挑战性的决策。看 Mark Zuckerberg 买下 Instagram 或 WhatsApp 时,当时人们都被价格震惊了,但他做对了这些决策。
Original English
Bill Ackman: Yeah, I think the answer is exactly what you said. I think the problem is that the average life of an S&P 500 CEO is probably four years or three and a half years and you're focused on shorter term compensation. You generally don't have a big economic stake in the business. You're a founder. This is your entire life. It's your entire reputation. Also when you're in the boardroom, you have the authority of either being a major voting voice or you've got a huge economic stake in the company. You look at Mark Zuckerberg right when he bought Instagram everyone was shocked at the price paid or WhatsApp... but you make enough of those calls and you can make the other challenging call.
Howard Hughes:构建伯克希尔 2.0 飞行轮
主持人: 谈谈 Howard Hughes 公司。你提到过受伯克希尔·哈撒韦的启发,或者想打造一个“2.0 版本”。
Original English
Host: Tell us um a little bit about Howard Hughes and you've talked a little bit about Berkshire Hathaway 2.0 or just being inspired by that.
Bill Ackman: 有一本书叫《伯克希尔·哈撒韦财务史》,那是给极客看的。作者分析了巴菲特 60 年来的每一笔交易,你会发现他创造的绝大部分价值来自拥有保险业务。运行保险公司有两项工作:承保业务(收集保费以履行未来赔付义务)和投资这笔钱(即浮存金 Float)。
大多数保险公司只关注负债端。巴菲特是第一个真正关注资产端的人。如果你能同时管理好资产和负债,就能建立一个极其强大的、具有税收效率的复利机器。Howard Hughes 是一家拥有“小型城市”的公司,比如拉斯维加斯的 Summerlin。我们拥有所有商业和住宅土地。华尔街从不在意它,因为它以房地产估值,时间跨度长达几十年。我们要做的是,不把业务产生的所有现金都投回房地产,而是投向保险。我们将构建一个飞行轮(Flywheel),在未来 50 年内将其打造为一个复利增长机器。巴菲特从一家糟糕的纺织公司开始,清算了它并转向保险;我们正以折价拥有 Howard Hughes 这种优质资产,并将其转型。
Original English
Bill Ackman: There's a book called the financial history of Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett was really the first to focus more on the asset side of the balance sheet than on the liability side. If you manage the assets well and the liabilities well you can build this enormously profitable compounding tax-efficient machine. Howard Hughes owns these small cities. Summerlin, we own all the commercial land, all the residential land... but the time frame is decades as opposed to quarters. So Wall Street's never cared. What we're doing is instead of reinvesting all the cash the business generates into real estate, we're going to reinvest all the cash into insurance. We're going to build this into a compounding machine over the next 50 years.
名声、Twitter 与透明度
主持人: 过去几年你变得极其出名。名声、社交媒体影响力如何改变了市场的运作方式?不仅是你的,还包括像 WallStreetBets 上的随机讨论。
Original English
Bill Ackman: 我不认为市场因为我的追随者增长而改变。但像 Ryan Cohen(GameStop 事件)那种情况确实改变了市场,当一只股票的估值可以仅仅依靠个性和召集“粉丝大军”的能力而远超其实际价值时。关于流动性和估值,最奇妙的一点是:股价涨得越高,公司反而变得越有价值。因为它降低了资本成本,给你更多灵活性去融资或收购。Elon Musk 是最好的例子,他建立了一群信徒和追随者,这使得 Tesla 得以建成。
我一直渴望说出事物的真相。我的高中毕业寄语是“最啰嗦的人”,而我朋友在旁边写的是“闭上的嘴不会招来脚踢”。这就是我生活的准则。能够分享你的观点并通过一个按钮触达 220 万人,这是一种非常强大的力量。
Original English
Bill Ackman: Yeah, I don't think markets have changed as a result of anything that's happened with me or follower growth on Twitter. I think the Ryan Cohen guy, the GameStop guy... that is a change in markets when a stock can trade at a valuation well above its value simply on the personality and the ability to gather up armies of followers. The higher a stock price goes, the more valuable the company becomes because it lowers the cost of capital. Elon is a better example of this. He built an army of believers and followers that enabled Tesla to be built. It's a very powerful thing to be able to share your view and push a button and reach 2.2 million people.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
人物: Bill Ackman, Elon Musk, Warren Buffett, Sam Altman, Sarah Friar
公司/组织: Pershing Square, Howard Hughes Corporation, SpaceX, OpenAI, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Wendy's