谷歌创历史新高,迈克尔·布里回归,英伟达做出回应:每日回顾 Amit Kukreja 2025-11-25

市场回顾:谷歌创新高与美联储降息预期

大家好,欢迎回到本频道。我们又回到了每日回顾节目,今天真是令人兴奋的一天。谷歌股价创下历史新高。

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Hey everybody, welcome back to the channel. We are back on another episode of the daily recap and today was a pretty exciting day. Google alltime highs.

盘后消息显示,谷歌股价继续走高,目前达到326美元。关于谷歌,我们有很多要讨论的。上周对美联储来说是糟糕的一周。

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You got some news after hours that's continuing to take Google even higher at 326 right now. Got a lot to talk about when it comes to Google. The Fed last week was a very ugly week.

其中一个原因是美联储暗示他们不太可能在12月降息。现在看来,一些更有影响力的美联储(Federal Reserve: 美国中央银行系统)成员的意见正在改变这一说法。

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One of the reasons was because the Fed signal that they weren't likely to give us a rate cut in December. Seems like he got some opinions from some other more influential Fed members. That's kind of changing that narrative.

如果真的降息,市场现在正以相当高的概率预期降息,那么我们今天看到的涨势实际上可能是可持续的。

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And if we do get this rate cut, which the markets are now pricing in, a pretty strong probability of getting that rate cut, maybe the rally that we saw today is actually sustainable.

此外,我们还得到了宏观经济、英伟达、亚马逊以及新投资的最新消息。有很多值得讨论的内容,让我们开始吧。

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And then we got some updates on the macro, Nvidia, Amazon, new investments. Lots to talk about. Let's get into it.

谷歌的崛起与AI竞争

好的,让我们从谷歌开始今天的话题。如果你大量配置了谷歌股票,那么今天就是你的日子。

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Okay, so let's start off the day with the googs. Let's start off the day with the googs. If you are heavily allocated to Google, uh, today is your day. Today is your day.

这对谷歌来说是现象级的一天。今天发生了几个催化剂。首先,该股目前股价为326美元。

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This was just a phenomenal day for Google. a couple catalysts that happened today. First of all, the stock right now at 326.

我的意思是,这只股票在今年大部分时间里都在140美元左右。年初至今上涨了71%。

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I mean, this stock, this stock was at 140 for the majority of the year. It's up 71% year-to date.

9月份的时候,它基本上在170到180美元之间。在过去三个月里,这家目前市值近4万亿美元(确切地说是3.865万亿美元)的公司几乎翻了一番。

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Um, and it was basically at 170 to 180 in September. It's almost done a double in the past three months on a at this point basically $4 trillion company, $3.865 trillion market cap.

关于谷歌的叙事已经发生了转变,从一个不适应人工智能运动(AI movement: 指人工智能技术快速发展和应用的趋势)、将被ChatGPT(OpenAI开发的大型语言模型)击垮、参与觉醒AI(woke AI: 指AI在伦理、社会公平等方面表现出政治正确偏见)、股价难以提振、以及将被美国司法部(DOJ: Department of Justice: 美国司法部)拆分的形象,所有这些都被抛诸脑后。

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And the narrative that has shifted on Google from the company that was uh not in tune with the AI movement that was going to get killed by CatchBT that was engaging in woke AI that can never catch a bid that the DOJ was going to break up. All of that is thrown out the window.

谷歌的市值(market cap: 公司所有流通股的总价值)七年来首次超越微软(Microsoft: 知名科技公司)。谷歌似乎很有可能达到4万亿美元的市值,甚至可能成为比英伟达(Nvidia: 知名图形处理器和AI芯片制造商)估值更高的公司。

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Google has taken over Microsoft's market cap for the first time in seven years. And it looks very likely that Google is trying to catch that $4 trillion market cap potentially even being a more higher valued company than Nvidia.

那么今天发生了什么,为什么会产生这种势头呢?首先,我们上周谈到的伯克希尔·哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway: 沃伦·巴菲特旗下的多元化控股公司)的广告,那是一件非常重要的事情。

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So what happened today and why is it creating this type of momentum? First of all, the Birkshar ad last week that we talked about, I mean that was a very big deal.

尽管沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett: 著名投资家)即将退休,但伯克希尔向谷歌投资了50亿美元,或者说大约40亿美元。他们现在可能已经赚了10亿美元。

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Uh although Warren Buffett is retiring, Bergkshire investing $5 billion into Google or investing probably like four billion. They're probably up a billion right now.

1780万股,这笔交易意义重大。你得到了伯克希尔的认可。我不认为他们只是为了短期套利而购买,我认为他们是为了长期持有。

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Uh 17.8 million shares, very big deal. You got the Birkshire stamp of approval. I don't think they're buying it just to flip it. I think they're buying it for a long-term hold. Number

第二,今天早上谷歌与北约(NATO: North Atlantic Treaty Organization: 北大西洋公约组织)签署了一份价值数百万美元的云计算协议。

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two, this morning Google signed a multi-million dollar deal with NATO for cloud computing.

我知道这不是一笔数十亿美元的交易,也不是像100亿美元的云计算合同。但谷歌云平台(GCP: Google Cloud Platform: 谷歌的云计算服务平台)能够继续赢得这些合同,尤其是在这种情况下,与北约这样非常重要的国际政府机构合作,意义重大。

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Now, I know that's not a multi-billion dollar deal. I know that's not like, you know, $10 billion in cloud computing contracts. But the fact that GCP continues to win these contracts in this case with very important international government agencies like NATO is a very big deal.

所以,早上有这个催化剂已经让市场兴奋起来,并给谷歌带来了一点提振。谷歌实际上因此上涨了5%。

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So, you have that catalyst in the morning that was already getting markets excited and that got Google a little bit of a pump. Google actually pumped 5% on that news.

盘后股价达到326.80美元,当天上涨了6%。谷歌发生的大事,盘后发生的大事,当我看到这条新闻时,我简直不敢相信。

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32680, you have hours, it was up 6% on the day. The big thing that happened to Google, the big thing that happened after hours and when I saw this news, I couldn't believe it.

但这确实给英伟达带来了一些问题。据**《The Information》(The Information: 一家专注于科技行业的杂志)报道,Meta(Facebook母公司)正在考虑在其数据中心使用谷歌的张量处理单元**(TPU: Tensor Processing Unit: 谷歌定制的AI加速芯片),这笔交易可能价值数十亿美元。

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But oh boy, does it bring up some questions for Nvidia. Meta, as for the information, is considering Google TPUs for their data centers in a deal that could be worth billions.

谷歌现在已经进入了销售TPU而非图形处理器(GPU: Graphical Processing Unit: 图形处理器,常用于AI计算)的领域。TPU是张量处理单元。

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And Google has now stepped into the picture when it comes to selling TPUs versus GPUs. Now, TPUs are tensor processing units.

这些是谷歌在AI数据中心生态系统中的定制芯片。GPU是图形处理单元,它们是标准芯片。

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These are Google's custom chips. uh in the AI data center ecosystem. GPUs are graphical processing units and these are sort of the standard chips.

Blackwell(Blackwell: 英伟达最新的GPU架构)是英伟达销售的最新版本,英伟达已经销售了大量这种芯片。第三季度的财报非常出色,这就是为什么英伟达今天的市值如此之高。

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Blackwell's the latest edition of them that Nvidia sells and Nvidia has been selling a lot of them. Q3 earnings was phenomenal and that's why Nvidia is worth as much as Nvidia is worth today.

TPU与GPU之争

这有几层含义。第一,谷歌上周展示的Gemini 3(Gemini 3: 谷歌最新一代多模态AI模型)是我们见过的最好的模型之一。

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Couple of implications from this. Number one, Gemini 3, which was shown by Google last week, has been one of the best models we've seen out I mean, even the information reporter that Sam Alman uh sent a memo to some of his colleagues saying that Google will create some economic headwinds for us and it's something that we really need to take seriously.

甚至有报道称,OpenAI(OpenAI: 人工智能研究公司)的首席执行官萨姆·奥特曼(Sam Altman: OpenAI首席执行官)向他的一些同事发送了一份备忘录,称谷歌将给我们带来一些经济逆风,这是我们需要认真对待的事情。

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So, you've got OpenAI already thinking, all right, we know we have more users than Gemini, but do we have the distribution? Do we have the ecosystem? Do we have the monetization capabilities? Do we have the ability to take on Google? Maybe not.

所以,你已经看到了一些担忧。Gemini 3非常出色。Salesforce(Salesforce: 客户关系管理软件公司)的首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫(Mark Benioff: Salesforce首席执行官)今天早上发推文说他已经不再使用ChatGPT了。

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So, you already have some of those concerns right there. Gemini 3 is amazing. Mark Benny off, CEO of Salesforce this morning that tweeted um that he's done using Chad T.

我对此感到非常惊讶,因为我觉得OpenAI是他的客户之一,但我想谷歌是更大的客户,所以他不在乎。

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I was quite surprised he even tweeted this because I feel like open eye is one of his customers but I guess Google is a bigger customer so he doesn't care.

他说他每天使用ChatGPT三年了,但使用Gemini两个小时后,他就回不去了。Gemini 3就是这么好。

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Um he said I've been using chat every day for three years and I use Gemini for two hours. I can't go back to chat. Gemini 3 is just that good.

所以,Gemini 3作为他们的新旗舰模型,是在这些张量处理单元(TPU)上训练的。这是一种由谷歌设计的定制专用集成电路(ASIC: Application-Specific Integrated Circuit: 专用集成电路),用于处理他们在大型模型系统(LMS: Large Model System: 大型模型系统,此处指大型语言模型系统)上必须处理的工作负载,在这种情况下是为了让Gemini尽可能结构化。

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So Gemini 3 which was their new flagship model was trained on these tensor processing units these TPUs. a custom ASIC designed by Google to deal with the workloads that they have to handle on their LMS in this case for Gemini to make it as structured as possible.

英伟达销售GPU。谷歌没有使用英伟达的GPU,也就是说,他们没有支付英伟达税(Nvidia tax: 指使用英伟达GPU进行AI训练所需支付的高昂成本)来训练Gemini 3。

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Nvidia sells GPUs. Google did not use Nvidia GPUs, aka they did not pay the Nvidia tax to be able to train Gemini 3.

盘后这笔交易意味着Meta正在考虑购买这些谷歌TPU。现在,我们先不谈Meta及其影响,以及华尔街对Meta的资本支出(capex: Capital Expenditure: 资本支出)感到厌倦,因为它没有持续的投资回报率(ROI: Return on Investment: 投资回报率)轨迹。

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This deal after hours says Meta is considering buying these Google TPUs. Now, forget Meta and the implications of Meta and the capex that the street is tired of hearing about with no consistent track towards an ROI, which is why Google, I think, is actually getting so much love from the street because they're actually showing the ROI.

这可能就是为什么我认为谷歌实际上得到了华尔街如此多的青睐,因为他们确实展示了投资回报率。这是一个独立的问题。

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Um, that's a separate question. Even though Meta stock did do well today, uh, Meta obviously going to continue to spend on capex, but Meta is not picking AMD or Nvidia.

尽管Meta的股票今天表现不错,Meta显然会继续在资本支出上投入,但Meta没有选择AMD(Advanced Micro Devices: 知名半导体公司)或英伟达。

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Meta's picking, if this report is correct, Google's TPUs. And that poses a question, an inevitable question.

如果这份报道属实,Meta正在选择谷歌的TPU。这提出了一个问题,一个不可避免的问题。

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And we'll talk more about Nvidia throughout the show today, but poses a question for Nvidia. What the heck is going on with Nvidia? Why did Meta not pick Nvidia?

我们今天会在节目中更多地讨论英伟达,但这给英伟达提出了一个问题:英伟达到底怎么了?为什么Meta没有选择英伟达?

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Now, Meta buys a ton of chips from AMD, a ton of chips from Nvidia. It's not like they've stopped buying their chips from Nvidia, but it makes you wonder if Google is able to get Meta to buy some of their TPUs versus Nvidia General GPUs for a very specific reason in terms of how Meta potentially is going to be training **Llama**(Llama: Meta开发的大型语言模型), which is their model.

现在,Meta从AMD和英伟达购买了大量的芯片。并不是说他们停止从英伟达购买芯片,但这让你不禁思考,如果谷歌能够让Meta购买他们的一些TPU,而不是英伟达的通用GPU,这是否出于一个非常具体的原因,即Meta可能将如何训练他们的模型Llama

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Is there a world where Google could go to other people that need TPUs? Now, that's not going to take the entirety of Nvidia's market.

谷歌是否有可能向其他需要TPU的人提供服务?当然,这不会占据英伟达的全部市场。

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I saw some reports say saying today maybe that can assess about 10% of Nvidia's overall market, which is, you know, good. It's not great. It's not phenomenal. It's not horrible, but it's great for Google.

我今天看到一些报道说,这可能会占据英伟达总市场份额的10%左右,这还不错。虽然不是很好,也不是现象级的,但也不糟糕,这对谷歌来说是好事。

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It's just a little scary for Nvidia because if Nvidia is not capturing that 10%, Nvidia already is the company that the entire world is resting on.

这对英伟达来说有点令人担忧,因为如果英伟达未能抓住这10%的市场,而英伟达已经是整个世界所依赖的公司。

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they need to execute. They need to win if they don't keep winning. And if they don't keep executing, what happens to the broader stock market?

他们需要执行,需要赢。如果他们不能继续赢,不能继续执行,那么更广泛的股市会发生什么?

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Or does it just become sort of a passing of the guard where Nvidia falls off, Google rises to more relevancy, and and falling off is too harsh of a term.

或者这是否只是权力交接,英伟达衰落,谷歌变得更重要?“衰落”这个词可能太严厉了。

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Nvidia maybe is not as valuable as it was before simply because there's more entrance in the market. And if there's more entrance in the market, then Google's going to be taking away a bit of that margin and opportunity that Nvidia has presented itself over the past couple years.

英伟达可能不如以前那么有价值,仅仅是因为市场上有更多的竞争者。如果市场上有更多的竞争者,那么谷歌就会夺走英伟达过去几年所拥有的部分利润和机会。

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I don't know the answers to these questions. I'm still trying to do a lot more research. This headline after hours quite frankly could be fake. It could not even be real.

我不知道这些问题的答案。我仍在努力进行更多研究。坦率地说,这条盘后新闻可能是假的,甚至可能不是真的。

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Uh it is reported about the information. The information is a magazine in Silicon Valley that let's just say they've not been the friendliest towards Nvidia in terms of their coverage.

它是由《The Information》报道的。《The Information》是硅谷的一本杂志,可以说,他们在报道中对英伟达并不那么友好。

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Also, let's let's just say hedge funds have a vested interest to make sure the information succeeds. So, you can have a lot of different nuance things going on right here in regards to this headline.

此外,对冲基金也有既得利益,以确保《The Information》成功。所以,关于这条新闻,这里可能有很多不同的细微之处。

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但核心事实是,如果这些GPU的重要性开始被削弱,而TPU开始变得更令人兴奋,那么这带来的问题将多于答案。

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But the core truth is that if these GPUs are going to start being taken away in terms of the relevancy that they have and the TPUs are going to start to get more exciting, it brings up more questions than answers.

我不认为这是英伟达的末日或类似的事情,但这肯定会让人开始思考。这是不可避免的。

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I don't think it's the death of Nvidia or anything like that, but it definitely makes people start to wonder. It's inevitable.

人们会想,谷歌是否正在从一个在硬件业务上拥有定价权和70%利润率(这很疯狂)的垄断(monopoly: 市场中只有一个卖方的情况)企业手中夺取一定程度的市场份额?

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People are going to be wondering, is Google taking a certain level of market share from a monopoly that has had pricing power and 70% margins on a hardware business, which is crazy.

人们是否预料到会发生这种情况?如果真的发生了,那将引发一些深刻的问题。但谷歌今天的股价绝对令人难以置信。如果你大量持有谷歌股票,恭喜你。

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And did people expect that to happen? And if that is happening, there are some deep questions. But Google stock today, absolutely incredible. Congrats if you are heavily in Google.

英伟达的回应与市场担忧

话虽如此,让我们谈谈英伟达。那么,英伟达今天发生了什么?英伟达实际上是上涨的。英伟达达到了183美元,今天表现出色。

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Having said that, let's talk about Nvidia. So, what's going on with Nvidia today? Nvidia was actually green. Nvidia hit 183. It was doing great today.

今天早上有一条具体的新闻。霍华德·卢特尼克(Howard Lutnik: 视频中误称为商务部长,实际为Cantor Fitzgerald CEO)表示,特朗普将非常乐意允许中国人获得H200(H200: 英伟达的一款GPU芯片),这是英伟达较旧一代的芯片之一。

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There was a specific um headline this morning. Uh Howard Lutnik, the commerce secretary, said that Trump would be very open to allowing the Chinese to get access to the H200s, which is one of Nvidia's older generation chips.

英伟达上涨,市场上涨,标普500指数(S&P 500: Standard & Poor's 500: 美国股市指数)今天上涨了1.5%。我们从上周的糟糕表现中看到了整个市场的反弹。

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Nvidia was up, the market was up, S&P 500 was up 1.5% today. We had an entire sort of market rebound from the nastiness of last week.

我们稍后会更多地讨论我对未来几周宏观经济的看法,但英伟达盘后下跌了2%。下跌的原因就是谷歌TPU的这条新闻。

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We'll talk more about kind of what I think is going to happen in the macro over the coming weeks, but Nvidia is down after hours 2%. And the reason it's down is because of this Google TPU news.

再说一次,我需要更深入地研究这些内容,以了解它将如何发展以及它对英伟达或更广泛的芯片行业意味着什么。

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Now again, I have to go deeper into this stuff to understand how is it playing out and the implications that it means for um Nvidia or the implications it means for the broader chip sector.

但我的直觉告诉我,如果相信黄仁勋(Jensen Huang: 英伟达CEO)和他的芯片销售预测以及他们给出的指引,英伟达将继续销售大量芯片。

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But my gut feeling tells me that Nvidia will continue to sell a lot of chips if you believe Jensen and you believe his projections in terms of how many chips they're going to be able to sell and the guidance that they gave.

再说一次,华尔街预期是610亿美元,他们公布了第四季度650亿美元。他们能带来这么多额外收入简直令人惊叹。

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Again, the street wanted 61 billion. They came out with 65 billion for Q4. It's almost remarkable how they came up with this much extra revenue.

这还不包括中国市场。所以如果算上中国,可能会再增加200到300亿美元。

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This is all excluding China. So if you do get China, that's probably another 20 to 30 billion that's coming in.

这也不包括中东。上周沙特购买了60万片芯片。

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所以,即使有谷歌的TPU,英伟达也将获得更多的收入。然而,认知就是现实,而目前的认知是这些TPU可能与GPU更具竞争力。

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It's also excluding the Middle East. You had the Saudis buy 600,000 chips last week. So you have a lot of more revenue that's coming in for Nvidia even with Google's TPUs. The perception though is reality and the perception right now is that these TPUs might be a little bit more competitive with the GPUs.

今天更有趣的故事是英伟达对迈克尔·布里(Michael Burry: 著名对冲基金经理,以预测2008年金融危机闻名)的回应。

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The more interesting story today is what Nvidia did in regards to Michael Bur. So Michael Bur, first of all, the big news on Michael Bur, he's been teasing this big announcement coming November 25th.

首先,关于迈克尔·布里的重大新闻是,他一直在预告11月25日将有一个重大声明。那是一个Substack(Substack: 一个允许作者发布付费新闻通讯的平台)。他推出了他的Substack。

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It's a Substack. he launched his substack. So, he has a Substack now. That's that's that that that that was his big announcement.

所以,他现在有了一个Substack。这就是他的重大声明。坦率地说,我的意思是,他确实在Substack中表示,他希望提出更多想法,更自由地发表言论。

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And and quite frankly, you know, I mean, he did say in the substack that he wants to uh put out more ideas and talk more freely.

他不再专业地管理资金,所以他不再受到严格的监管。所以,我的意思是,如果这个人想发表文章和想法,那么成为一个内容创作者,并真正表达你的思想和想法,这是世界上最棒的工作之一。

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He's not professionally managing money anymore, so he doesn't have the strict regulations on him. So, I mean, look, if the guy wants to put out articles and ideas, I mean, like, it's one of the greatest jobs in the world to be a content creator and actually get your thoughts and ideas out there.

而且,他确实有宝贵的视角。只是现在这种视角将被放大,因为他已经明确表示,或者说这份新闻通讯的一个重要意图是看空AI。

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And, you know, he does have a valuable perspective. It's just now that perspective is going to be magnified because he has made it an intent for him or a big intent of the newsletter to be bearish on AI.

事实上,我没有订阅这份新闻通讯,因为它每年要380美元,我不知道我是否愿意支付那么多钱。

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And in fact, I have not subscribed to the newsletter because it cost $380 a year and I don't know if I want to pay that much money, but um he did say there were some screenshots of the Substack where Michael Bur says, quote, "And once again, there's a Cisco at the center of it all with the picks and shovels for all and the expansive vision to go with it."

但是,Substack的一些截图显示,迈克尔·布里说:“再一次,思科(Cisco: 知名网络设备公司)处于一切的中心,为所有人提供镐和铲,并拥有广阔的愿景。”

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He writes after noting that Cisco plunged 78% during the **dotcom crash**(互联网泡沫破裂: 2000年代初期科技股暴跌事件). Its name is Nvidia.

他在指出思科在互联网泡沫破裂(dotcom crash: 2000年代初期科技股暴跌事件)期间暴跌78%后写道:“它的名字是英伟达。”

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So obviously Michael Bur is going to be propagating his ideas around the AI bubble and explaining why it's not real, fake, yada yada.

所以很明显,迈克尔·布里将传播他对AI泡沫的看法,解释为什么它不是真实的、虚假的等等。

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Nvidia, the interesting story today is they responded to Michael Bur. So, Nvidia sent uh and I'll put the tweet in the description for those that want to see the entire thing because this was like uh in some of the SEC files, but um Nvidia literally cited Michael Bur's arguments around depreciation and inventories and accounts receivables and they straight up responded to it.

英伟达今天有趣的故事是他们回应了迈克尔·布里。英伟达发布了一份声明——我会把推文链接放在描述中,供那些想看完整内容的人参考,因为这就像是美国证券交易委员会的一些文件——英伟达直接引用了迈克尔·布里关于折旧、库存和应收账款的论点,并直接对此做出了回应。

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So, I'm not going to read the whole thing because there's a lot to read. Again, I will put it in the description. You can click on the tweet and get all the exact text.

我不会把所有内容都读出来,因为内容很多。我再次强调,我会把它放在描述中,你可以点击推文查看所有确切的文本。

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But I thought the more interesting takeaway was that Nvidia actually felt they had to issue to the sellside analysts the **高盛**(Goldman Sachs: 知名投资银行), the **奥本海默**(Oppenheimer: 知名投资银行), the **摩根大通**(J.P. Morgan: 知名投资银行), the **美国银行**(Bank of America: 知名银行),顺便说一句,所有这些机构都上调了英伟达的目标股价。

但我认为更有趣的启示是,英伟达实际上觉得他们必须向卖方分析师,如高盛(Goldman Sachs: 知名投资银行)、奥本海默(Oppenheimer: 知名投资银行)、摩根大通(J.P. Morgan: 知名投资银行)、美国银行(Bank of America: 知名银行)发布声明。顺便说一句,所有这些机构都上调了英伟达的目标股价。

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And all of them are now in the 250s because of how strong that quarter was. Um Nvidia felt compelled to say, "Hey, this guy who you think is so influential in the world of investing and has all these concerns about why we're all fake, here's why that's not the case."

由于那个季度表现强劲,所有这些机构现在都将目标股价定在250美元以上。英伟达觉得有必要说:“嘿,这个你们认为在投资界如此有影响力,并对我们为何都是虚假的存在抱有各种担忧的人,这就是为什么情况并非如此的原因。”

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And so I just personally thought as an Nvidia shareholder, wow, they really felt they needed to respond. Aka, they're assuming that this is having a lot more relevancy than they would like it to have.

所以,作为英伟达的股东,我个人认为,哇,他们真的觉得有必要回应。也就是说,他们认为这比他们希望的更具相关性。

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And they probably know that the sell side is a bit worried even though, you know, Nvidia had one of the best quarters of all time.

他们可能知道卖方有点担心,尽管英伟达度过了有史以来最好的季度之一。

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I mean, again, this stock should be at $200 and I think by the end of the year it potentially has a chance to get back to $200, but they can tell that the entire market is worried.

我的意思是,这只股票应该在200美元,我认为到年底它有可能回到200美元,但他们能感觉到整个市场都在担忧。

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**黄仁勋**(Jensen Huang: 英伟达CEO)在财报发布后甚至对他的员工说了一句话:“我们陷入了两难境地。如果我们做得好,我们就是在助长AI泡沫。如果我们做得不好,我们就是在戳破AI泡沫。”

黄仁勋(Jensen Huang: 英伟达CEO)在财报发布后甚至对他的员工说了一句话:“我们陷入了两难境地。如果我们做得好,我们就是在助长AI泡沫。如果我们做得不好,我们就是在戳破AI泡沫。”

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So, he's kind of just like, "Hey, we just got to keep doing what we got to do, and the market will eventually recognize it."

所以,他有点像是在说:“嘿,我们只需要继续做我们该做的事情,市场最终会认可的。”

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And the market has recognized that. I mean, the stock trades at a $4 trillion valuation, but it trades at 2020. It trades at 20 times 2027 earnings.

市场也确实认可了这一点。我的意思是,这只股票的估值达到4万亿美元,但它以2027年收益的20倍进行交易。这很便宜。

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That's cheap. Objectively, a stock growing at the rate that Nvidia is grow a PEG ratio less than one is pretty freaking cheap.

客观地说,一只以英伟达这种速度增长的股票,其市盈增长比(PEG ratio)小于1,简直是便宜得离谱。

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So you got Jensen that I think is asking himself, hey, how do we make sure that there is no chance the sell side the the people that put a rating on our stock even have a sliver of a doubt around these concerns with Michael Bur?

所以,我认为黄仁勋正在问自己,我们如何确保卖方——那些对我们股票进行评级的人——对迈克尔·布里的这些担忧丝毫没有疑虑?

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And he issued a statement and that statement has tons of different nuanced claims for why Michael Bur is wrong.

他发布了一份声明,这份声明包含了大量不同的细致论点,解释了为什么迈克尔·布里是错误的。

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So again, I'll link that tweet in the description. You guys can click on it and read exactly what Nvidia said.

所以,我再次强调,我会把那条推文链接放在描述中。你们可以点击它,阅读英伟达具体说了什么。

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Here is a clip I just want to share from **戴维·弗里德伯格**(David Friedberg: 投资家,All-In Podcast联合主持人)在**All-In Podcast**(The All-In Podcast: 知名科技投资播客)上为英伟达辩护,并解释为什么迈克尔·布里关于折旧的说法没有多大意义。

这里我想分享一段来自戴维·弗里德伯格(David Friedberg: 投资家,All-In Podcast联合主持人)在All-In Podcast(The All-In Podcast: 知名科技投资播客)上的片段,他为英伟达辩护,并解释了为什么迈克尔·布里关于折旧的说法没有多大意义。

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And I actually think Michael Burry's got this wrong. And so what Michael Bur is saying is that all of these **超大规模云服务商**(hyperscalers: 指提供大规模云计算服务的公司,如Google, Amazon, Microsoft)都延长了他们的**折旧计划**(depreciation schedule: 资产成本在其使用寿命内分摊的会计方法),或者说他们数据中心的有用寿命延长了大约一倍,这使得他们在财报中报告的运营成本减半。

我实际上认为迈克尔·布里错了。迈克尔·布里说,所有这些超大规模云服务商(hyperscalers: 指提供大规模云计算服务的公司,如Google, Amazon, Microsoft)都延长了他们的折旧计划(depreciation schedule: 资产成本在其使用寿命内分摊的会计方法),或者说他们数据中心的有用寿命延长了大约一倍,这使得他们在财报中报告的运营成本减半。

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And so it's making their earnings inflate. So he's claiming they're cooking the books. Google first made this change in Q1 of 21 where they said the servers are now going from 3 to four years.

因此,这使得他们的收益虚高。他声称他们正在“做假账”。谷歌在2021年第一季度首次做出这一改变,当时他们表示服务器的使用寿命从3年延长到4年。

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The chart shows the combination of servers and networking equipment. Separately in 2021, Google took networking equipment from 3 to 5 years and then in 2023 they took it from 5 to 6 years.

图表显示了服务器和网络设备的组合。另外,在2021年,谷歌将网络设备的使用寿命从3年延长到5年,然后在2023年又从5年延长到6年。

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And so this is a result of this effort where they went in and did an analysis. So what happened? What happened in the data centers is that the data centers transitioned from being primarily **数据存储**(data storage: 存储数字信息的系统) and **数据传输**(data transfer: 数据的移动和复制)系统,你使用硬盘、内存和存储来存储数据,然后将其传输出去,转变为**数据处理**(data processing: 对数据进行操作和转换的过程)中心,因为AI的繁荣。

所以这是他们进行分析努力的结果。那么发生了什么?数据中心发生的变化是,它们从主要用于数据存储(data storage: 存储数字信息的系统)和数据传输(data transfer: 数据的移动和复制)的系统(你使用硬盘、内存和存储来存储数据,然后将其传输出去)转变为数据处理(data processing: 对数据进行操作和转换的过程)中心,因为AI的繁荣。

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So as AI became more important in the data center, more of the dollars that are going into data centers were allocated towards chips from data storage which initially was hard drives.

因此,随着AI在数据中心变得越来越重要,投入数据中心的资金更多地分配给了芯片,而不是最初的硬盘等数据存储设备。

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And then suddenly when you put these processors in to process the data to do AI, that's the majority of the spend and the majority of the energy is going towards the processors.

然后,当你突然放入这些处理器来处理数据以进行AI计算时,大部分支出和大部分能源都流向了处理器。

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I made some calls and I checked around with some other friends and everyone says the same thing that these seven and 8year-old TPUs and GPUs that are sitting in the data centers are still being used and they're being used at 100% **利用率**(utilization: 资源被实际使用的程度)。

我打了一些电话,也向其他朋友核实过,每个人都说同样的事情:那些在数据中心里七八年之久的TPU和GPU仍在被使用,而且它们的利用率(utilization: 资源被实际使用的程度)达到了100%。

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So that actually justifies and validates the depreciation schedule being much longer versus shorter.

所以这实际上证明并验证了折旧计划应该更长而不是更短。

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So look, I think there's a lot of different nuances in terms of what's going on with Nvidia. This Google TPU news was definitely big after hours and obviously Nvidia stock is going to get hit because of that.

所以,我认为英伟达的情况有很多不同的细微之处。谷歌TPU的这条新闻在盘后确实影响很大,显然英伟达的股价会因此受到打击。

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I think the broader question is does the street believe in Jensen or do they not? And are there external variables like this new TPU thing that came up after hours which TPUs have been around for a while but getting Meta to sign a multi-billion dollar deal that is a whole different story.

我认为更广泛的问题是华尔街是否相信黄仁勋?是否存在像盘后出现的这个新的TPU事件这样的外部变量?TPU已经存在一段时间了,但让Meta签署数十亿美元的协议则完全是另一回事。

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Does that complicate the vision that Jensen has been showing? Again, Jensen is claiming that capex is going to get to 34 trillion by the end of the decade.

这是否会使黄仁勋一直展示的愿景复杂化?再说一次,黄仁勋声称到本十年末,资本支出将达到34万亿美元。

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If that's the case, Nvidia is cyclical like any semiconductor stock that's cyclical, but that cycle might last for a long time.

如果真是这样,英伟达就像任何周期性半导体股票一样具有周期性,但这个周期可能会持续很长时间。

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And that's where a lot of people can make a lot of money in that cycle. If the cycle is not as robust because other people come in, **博通**(Broadcom: 知名半导体和基础设施软件公司)当天上涨了10%,因为博通是谷歌TPU的关键供应商。

很多人可以在这个周期中赚大钱。如果因为其他竞争者的加入,这个周期不够强劲,博通(Broadcom: 知名半导体和基础设施软件公司)当天上涨了10%,因为博通是谷歌TPU的关键供应商。

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Well, that begs a lot more questions. So, I need to do a lot more research on this. I will try to present as much research as I can.

嗯,这引发了更多问题。所以,我需要对此进行更多研究。我将尽力呈现尽可能多的研究成果。

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I've been already diving deep into the TPUs and trying to understand the competitive advantages they have with the GPUs and why customers might be curious about buying them.

我一直在深入研究TPU,试图了解它们与GPU相比的竞争优势,以及为什么客户可能对购买它们感到好奇。

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But overall, Michael Bur is now claiming that Nvidia is Cisco. Michael Bur has launched a Substack where he will be propagating that Nvidia is Cisco.

但总的来说,迈克尔·布里现在声称英伟达就是思科。迈克尔·布里已经推出了一个Substack,他将在其中宣传英伟达就是思科的观点。

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And Nvidia has responded directly to Michael Bur's claims because they felt they were so serious that they needed a response.

英伟达直接回应了迈克尔·布里的说法,因为他们认为这些说法非常严重,需要做出回应。

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That quarter you would think was the response, but the fact that the quarter basically became a nothing burger as the stock came right back down uh to the 180s after gapping up basically to 197 is quite incredible.

你可能会认为那个季度就是回应,但事实是,在股价跳空高开到197美元后又跌回180美元区间,那个季度基本上变得毫无意义,这相当令人难以置信。

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I think there's a lot of nuance to the story and hopefully over time we have a lot better details on what's going on.

我认为这个故事有很多细微之处,希望随着时间的推移,我们能获得更多关于正在发生的事情的详细信息。

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All right, what cannot be denied whether it's a GPU or a TPU is that all of those different chips will be put into a data center.

数据中心投资热潮

好的,无论是GPU还是TPU,都不可否认的是,所有这些不同的芯片都将被放入数据中心。今天早上我们收到了两份关于数据中心的更新。这非常看涨。

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We got two updates on data centers this morning. This is super bullish. **Nebius**(Nebius: 一家数据中心基础设施公司), **Irene**(Irene: 一家数据中心相关公司), **CoreWeave**(CoreWeave: 一家专业GPU云提供商), **Cipher**(Cipher: 一家比特币挖矿和数据中心公司), etc. All those stocks outside of Corore were up almost 10% on the day.

Nebius(Nebius: 一家数据中心基础设施公司)、Irene(Irene: 一家数据中心相关公司)、CoreWeave(CoreWeave: 一家专业GPU云提供商)、Cipher(Cipher: 一家比特币挖矿和数据中心公司)等。除了CoreWeave之外,所有这些股票当天都上涨了近10%。

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Cororeeve is having a real issue in terms of the perception of their debt. Same thing with **甲骨文**(Oracle: 知名软件和云计算公司)。

CoreWeave在债务认知方面确实存在问题。甲骨文(Oracle: 知名软件和云计算公司)也一样。

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I mean, again, if you understand the nuances of that company, then it makes sense to take advantage of this dip.

我的意思是,如果你了解那家公司的细微之处,那么利用这次下跌是有道理的。

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If you don't think that the debt profile is going to be enough for the company to overcome the perception of what's going on with their **债务股本比**(debt to equity: 衡量公司财务杠杆的指标),目前已经超过3倍,那么其他一些公司的商业模式可能更容易理解。

如果你不认为公司的债务状况足以克服对其债务股本比(debt to equity: 衡量公司财务杠杆的指标)(目前已超过3倍)的负面认知,那么其他一些公司的商业模式可能更容易理解。

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And that's why I kind of went with Nebius. I also think it's a bit more diversified. So Neb is kind of my pick here, but I cipher, all those names are doing very well.

这就是我选择Nebius的原因。我还认为它更加多元化。所以Nebius是我的选择,但Cipher,所有这些名字都表现非常好。

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And every time we get a data center update, all those names start to get back into contention and favor.

每次我们收到数据中心的更新,所有这些名字都开始重新获得关注和青睐。

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And part of this entire thesis around AI and Hypers cycle and NVIDIA and investing in the overall **AI总潜在市场**(AI TAM: AI Total Addressable Market: 人工智能的总潜在市场) is that you're going to need a lot of these **新云服务商**(neoclouds: 指新兴的、专注于特定领域(如AI)的云服务提供商)来潜在地执行这些数据中心上线的能力。

围绕AI、超大规模周期、英伟达以及投资整个AI总潜在市场(AI TAM: AI Total Addressable Market: 人工智能的总潜在市场)的整个论点是,你需要大量新云服务商(neoclouds: 指新兴的、专注于特定领域(如AI)的云服务提供商)来潜在地实现这些数据中心上线的能力。

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You're going to need a lot of energy companies, utility companies. So there's an entire ecosystem of investing.

你需要大量的能源公司、公用事业公司。所以这是一个完整的投资生态系统。

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All of them have their different nuances like CoreWeave's debt profile and Nebius's potential $10 billion stake in **ClickHouse**(ClickHouse: 一家开源列式数据库管理系统公司),对吧?

它们都有各自不同的细微之处,比如CoreWeave的债务状况和Nebius在ClickHouse(ClickHouse: 一家开源列式数据库管理系统公司)中潜在的100亿美元股权,对吧?

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So, there's a lot of different layers to it. But today, we got more evidence that it's happening.

所以,这有很多不同的层面。但今天,我们得到了更多证据表明这一切正在发生。

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亚马逊正在投资高达500亿美元,以扩大美国政府机构的AI和超级计算基础设施。这是今天早上我们收到的关于数据中心的第一条新闻。

亚马逊正在投资高达500亿美元,以扩大美国政府机构的AI和超级计算基础设施。这是今天早上我们收到的关于数据中心的第一条新闻。

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再说一次,谷歌上周在德克萨斯州投资了400亿美元。所以,上周我们又收到了一条新闻,专门针对一个州,这对谷歌来说意义重大。

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Again, Google was investing 40 billion last week in Texas. So, we got another headline last week exclusively for one state, which is a big deal for Google.

这项新投资将为亚马逊云服务(AWS: Amazon Web Services: 亚马逊的云计算服务平台)的秘密和政府云区域增加近1.3吉瓦(gigawatts: 衡量电力的单位)的计算能力。

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Uh the new investment will add nearly 1.3 gigawatts of compute capacity across AWS secret and government cloud regions.

它扩大了政府机构对AWS可信基础设施和全面AI服务的访问权限,以帮助政府机构进一步巩固美国在AI领域的领导地位。

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It expands access to AWS's trusted infrastructure and comprehensive AI services to help the government agencies make America's AI leadership even stronger.

然后,AWS将为美国政府构建和部署有史以来第一个专为AI和高性能计算而设的基础设施。

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And then AWS, Amazon Web Services, will build and deploy the first ever AI and high performance computing purpose-built infrastructure for the US government.

我们不确定他们是否只会在其中使用Trainium(Trainium: 亚马逊自研的AI训练芯片)芯片或英伟达GPU,但重点是他们将使用大量的不同生态系统和芯片来构建环境,以建立更多数据中心。

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We're not sure if they're only going to use tranium chips in this or Nvidia GPUs, but the point is they're going to be using a ton of different ecosystems and chips to build out the environment to establish more data centers.

这条新闻今天早上是看涨的。亚马逊股价从221美元小幅上涨到226美元。

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That news was bullish this morning. Amazon was up a little bit uh from 221 to 226.

但随后,在市场收盘时,亚马逊又发布了另一条新闻,称他们将在印第安纳州投入更多资金。在印第安纳州投资150亿美元。

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But then you had another another piece of news uh right when we were getting into the market close from Amazon saying uh we are investing even more in Indiana. $15 billion investment in Indiana.

这将为整个州的电力供应增加2.4吉瓦,这有点疯狂,并将创造1100个新工作岗位。

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This is going to add 2.4 gawatts to the entire state's electricity supply which is kind of crazy and it'll be creating 1100 new jobs.

所以亚马逊计划在印第安纳州北部投资150亿美元,建设新的数据中心园区并推动AI创新。

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So Amazon plans to invest 15 billion in northern Indiana to build new data center campuses and advance AI innovation.

看到超大规模云服务商继续投资,这非常非常令人兴奋。我认为围绕AI泡沫的整个说法都建立在数据中心无用、AI需求不存在、投资回报率不存在的观念之上。

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It is very very exciting to see the hyperscalers continue to invest. The entire claim around the AI bubble I think rests on the idea that the data centers are not useful that the demand for AI is not there that the ROI is not there.

因此,正在进行的整个建设将导致像Irene、Cipher、CoreWeave、Nebius这样的公司全部归零,同时超大规模云服务商也将损失大量价值,因为他们在资本支出上投入了所有这些资金,但却一无所获。

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So the entire buildout that's taking place will lead companies like Iran, Cipher, Cororeweave, Nebas to all go to zero along with the hyperscalers losing a ton of their value because they're spending all this capital in terms of capital expenditures, capex, but they're not getting anything from it.

情况可能并非如此。我不认为亚马逊会准备在他们认为没有用的东西上花费650亿美元。

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That might not be the case. I don't think Amazon is getting ready to spend $65 billion on something that they don't see the use for.

因此,AI所有其他行业的投资机会似乎都是有道理的。

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And as a result, it seems like the investment opportunity for all the other sectors in AI makes sense.

美联储降息前景

好的,我们今天要谈的最后一件事是美联储的宏观经济。各位,我们可能要降息了。

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All right, last thing we're going to talk about today, the Fed macro. Folks, we might be getting this rate cut.

上周,市场在周四出现逆转的原因之一是,我们上涨了近万亿美元的价值,然后又下跌了万亿美元的价值。那是一个历史性的周四。

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Um, last week, one of the reasons the market flipped on Thursday, we went up almost a trillion dollars in value, came down a trillion dollars in value. It was kind of a historic Thursday.

我的意思是,我想没有人预料到,但发生了什么?嗯,许多美联储主席出来说:“我们正在考虑不降息。”

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I mean, I don't think anyone expected it, but what happened? Well, um, a lot of Fed presidents came out and said, "We're thinking of not having a rate cut."

哈蒙克是其中之一。洛根是其中之一。许多美联储主席都说:“我们认为通胀问题比劳动力市场问题更严重。”

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Hammock was one of them. Uh, Logan was one of them. You had a bunch of these Fed presidents say, "We think the inflation story is a biggerish story than the labor market."

因此,通胀的上行风险比劳动力市场的下行风险更重要。

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And as a result, the upside risk to inflation matters more than the downside risk to the labor market.

你看到期货合约上降息的美联储概率一路下降到30%。一度是100%。

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And you have the Fed probabilities on the futures contracts for a rate cut going down all the way to 30%. Which at one point was 100%.

大约一个月前,它基本上是99%,然后下降到30%。整个市场都认为:“好吧,我们不会得到流动性了。”

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It was basically 99% a month ago, went down to 30%. You had the entire market think, "All right, we're not going to get liquidity."

坦率地说,上周加密货币之所以遭受如此大的打击,除了汤姆·李(Tom Lee: 知名投资策略师)在更广泛的加密生态系统中谈到的整个故障之外,就是因为缺乏降息(rate cut: 降低基准利率以刺激经济)和缺乏流动性。

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Quite frankly, one of the reasons why crypto might have taken as big of a hit as it did last week, outside of the whole glitch that Tom Lee talked about in the broader crypto ecosystem, is the lack of rate cuts and the lack of liquidity.

然而,周五市场出现逆转的部分原因是,纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯(John Williams: 纽约联邦储备银行行长),并非所有美联储主席都同等重要,他说:“我认为我们应该降息。”

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Well, on Friday, part of the reason we got a reversal is because Fed President John Williams, who is the president of the New York Fed, not all Fed presidents are created equal, said, "I think we should get a cut."

他被视为鲍威尔(Jerome Powell: 美联储主席)的代理人。鲍威尔显然是每个人都关心的人。他是美联储主席。

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He is seen as a proxy to Powell. Powell is the one that everyone obviously cares about. He's the Fed chair.

所以,你看到威廉姆斯主席说:“我认为我们应该降息。”美联储降息的概率从30%上升到70%。现在,美联储降息的概率是80.9%。

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So, you had Fed President Williams say, "I think we should have a cut." Fed probabilities went from 30% to 70%. Right now, Fed probabilities are at 80.9%.

为什么?因为旧金山联储主席玛丽·C·戴利(Mary C. Daly: 旧金山联邦储备银行行长),她也是一位非常有影响力的美联储主席,支持12月降息,理由是劳动力市场脆弱。

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Why? Because Fed President Daily from the San Francisco Federal Reserve, which is also a very influential Fed president, backed a December rate cut, citing the vulnerable labor market.

所以,有两位非常重要的美联储主席基本上说:“我们到底在做什么?我们需要降息。”

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So, you had two very important Fed presidents basically say, "What the hell are we doing? We need to do a rate cut."

前几天,美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒(Christopher Waller: 美联储理事)在一个视频中说,他不明白为什么人们认为通胀是更大的问题。显然是劳动力市场。

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You had Fed President Waller come out the other day in a video and he was just like, I don't understand why people think inflation is the bigger issue. It's obviously the labor market

他说通胀高于目标或关税将导致大量通胀,但这并没有发生。它应该已经发生了,但我们没有看到,也没有预测到。

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>> saying it's above target or tariffs are going to cause a bunch of inflation which they it ain't happening. It should have already happened. We're not seeing it. We're not forecasting any of it.

所以,你知道,给我更好的理由,说明你为什么不降息。

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So, you know, start giving me a lot better reasons for saying you're not going to cut.

因此,市场今天之所以能够真正巩固涨幅,仅仅是因为我们可能要降息了。

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>> And so, as a result, you got the market to really solidify the gains that it had today. simply because of the fact that we might be getting the rate cut.

现在,我知道很多人都在想为什么降息如此必要。我认为在最简单的层面上,不涉及所有关于降息重要性的细微之处,从高贝塔值的角度来看,市场,比如你的BMRs,你的成长股,比如你的加密衍生品,所有那些真正需要兴奋、动能和超额收益才能继续走高的名字。

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Now, I know a lot of people are wondering why is the rate cut so necessary. I think at the most simplest level, without getting into all the nuances of like why a rate cut is important, the market from a high beta perspective, your BMRs of the world, you know, your growth stocks, like your crypto derivatives, all the names that like really need excitement, momentum, and alpha in order to continue moving higher.

这取决于一个流动性充裕的环境。这取决于,你知道,就像对于BMR来说,要让你兴奋,你需要有流动性,就像,你知道,对于BMR股票来说,要继续上涨并让你兴奋,你需要一个流动性充裕的环境。

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It's contingent on a liquid environment. It's contingent on, you know, like for BMR to make you wet, you need to have a liquidity like a liquid like, you know, for BMR stock to keep going up and make you wet, you need a liquid environment.

而这种流动性来自于降息。这种流动性来自于政府的宽松政策,然后美联储进行量化宽松(QE: Quantitative Easing: 央行通过购买资产向市场注入流动性)。

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And so that liquidity comes from a rate cut. That liquidity comes from the government easing and and then the Fed engaging in quantitative easing.

现在,我们还没有达到量化宽松的阶段。我们基本上通过停止量化紧缩(QT: Quantitative Tightening: 央行通过出售资产或停止再投资来收缩货币供应)来达到准量化宽松。

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And right now, we're not a QE yet. We're at essentially a pseudo QE by by stopping QT.

但我们需要更多的资金进入系统,日本已经开始印钞,这引发了对日元套利交易(yen carry trade: 借入低利率日元投资高利率资产的策略)的担忧。

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But we need more money in the system and Japan has already started printing which is bringing up concerns of a yen carry trade.

这可能是真的,也可能不是真的。这其中有一些细微之处。加拿大正在降息,印度也在降息。

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That might be true, that might not be true. There's some nuance to that. Uh you got Canada that's cutting, India that's cutting.

世界上许多不同的中央银行都在降息,除了美国。我们已经降息两次了,但很多人认为我们应该降息更多。

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You have a lot of different central banks across the world that are cutting except the United States. We've cut two times, but a lot of people are thinking we should be cutting more.

特朗普想替换鲍威尔的原因之一是他知道他会得到一位降息的美联储主席,这也引出了一个问题,为什么市场如此关心鲍威尔和美联储?

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One of the reasons why Trump wants to replace Pal is because he knows that he will get a Fed president that cuts, which also kind of begs the question, why does the market care so much about Powell and this Federal Reserve?

因为在接下来的几个月里,一旦特朗普宣布影子美联储(shadow Fed: 指潜在的、非官方的政策制定者群体,此处指特朗普可能任命的未来美联储团队),他将成为一个跛脚鸭美联储主席(lame duck Fed president: 指任期即将结束、影响力减弱的主席),市场将提前反映他们知道影子美联储会做的事情。

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Because he's going to be a lame duck Fed president in the next couple months once Trump announces the shadow Fed and the market will pull forward what they know the shadow Fed is going to do.

所以,如果我们需要流动性来让所有这些股票真正获得所需的动能,你就需要降息的保证。

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So, if we need liquidity for all these stocks to really get the momentum that they need, you're going to need a guarantee of a rate cut.

因此,这并不意味着如果我们不降息,标普500指数就必须跌到6000点,但它肯定意味着如果我们不降息,我们可能不会达到7000点。

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And so it doesn't mean that the S&P 500 has to go down to 6,000 if we don't get a rate cut, but it definitely means we're probably not going to 7,000 if we don't get a rate cut.

这也意味着,如果我们没有那种流动性充裕的环境,将很难维持这些水平。

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And it also means that it's going to be very hard to sustain these levels if we don't have that liquid environment.

所以从这个角度来看,我认为有两位非常渴望降息的美联储主席是非常看涨的。

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So from that perspective, I think it's really bullish that you have two Fed presidents that are very eager to cut rates.

还有几位,比如沃勒、莫兰(Moran: 美联储官员)和鲍曼(Bowman: 美联储官员),他们也想降息。

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You have a couple others like Waller and and Moran and um Bowman that also want to cut rates.

所以,多数人的意见开始转变。最终将由鲍威尔决定,如果他获得了多数票。

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And so you have the majority starting to shift. It'll be Pal's decision at the end of the day if he has the majority of the votes.

如果鲍威尔说:“是的,我们要降息了。”如果我们降息,AI泡沫的担忧就会稍微减少一点。

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And Pal says, "Yes, we're getting this rate cut." And if we're getting this rate cut and the AI bubble fears start to go down a little bit.

顺便说一句,特朗普正在制定一些关于医疗保健和延长平价医疗法案补贴(ACA subsidies: 根据《平价医疗法案》提供的医疗保险费用补贴)的潜在提案。

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Trump, by the way, uh is working on some potential proposals for healthcare and extending ACA subsidies.

这就是为什么奥斯卡健康(Oscar Health: 一家健康保险公司)当天上涨了20%。也许这可以避免政府在1月份停摆。

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That's why Oscar was up 20% of the day. Maybe that avoids the government shutdown going into January.

2026年没有停摆。鲍威尔离开后,5月份将不可避免地降息,希望年底也能降息。

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You have no shutdown in 2026. You have rate cuts that are inevitably coming in May when PAL is gone and rate cuts that are hopefully coming towards the end of the year.

如果公司继续在收益上表现出色,AI泡沫的担忧就会开始消散,而它们确实正在这样做。那么熊市情景是什么?

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and you have the AI bubble feels fear starting to dissipate if companies continue executing on earnings which they are doing. What's the bare case?

熊市情景是劳动力市场和消费者。我今天在我的Substack上发表了一篇文章,关于两极分化的经济(bifurcated economy: 指经济中不同群体(如高收入和低收入消费者)表现出截然不同的状况)。

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Well, the bare case is the labor market and the consumer. I actually published a post on my Substack today uh about the bifurcated economy.

我会把链接留在聊天中,供那些想阅读的人参考。这更像是一个深入分析,关于我们在频道上一直在做的分析,围绕经济的两极分化部分,低端消费者与中产阶级消费者。

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I'll leave that link in the chat for those that want to read it. Uh and it's more of just a deep dive of all the analysis we've been doing on the channel around the, you know, bifurcated parts of the economy, the low-end consumer versus the middle class consumer.

这些都是真实存在的,这可能是你的熊市情景。但这是否足以成为一个熊市情景,以至于拖垮英伟达的收益?

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Like that stuff's real and that could be your bare case. But is that enough of a bare case to take down Nvidia earnings?

谷歌的收益、微软的收益、亚马逊的收益,仅仅因为劳动力市场有些疲软,而劳动力市场确实存在疲软。

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Google earnings, Microsoft earnings, Amazon earnings because there's some weakness in the labor market, which there is weakness.

但这是否是完全恶化?不。

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But is it complete deterioration? No.

这就是降息的理由,比如,嘿,在我们完全恶化之前降息,这样我们就可以避免这种情况。

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Which is the case for a rate cut like, hey, let's cut rates before it completely deteriorates so that we can save ourselves from that.

但现在它并没有完全恶化。所以,我们不需要那么激进,但我们也不需要那么限制性。

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But it's not completely deteriorating right now. So, we don't need to be that aggressive, but we also don't need to be that restrictive.

如果你能在这里两全其美,那么我们很有可能迎来一个非常强劲的年终。

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If you kind of get the best of both worlds here, there's a shot that we do have a very strong end of year.

总结与展望

好了,我今天就到这里。感谢大家的收听和观看。

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All right, that's it for me. Thank everybody for listening and watching.

嗯,我会在接下来的几天里一直在这里,直到感恩节。非常非常感谢大家一直以来的支持和对本频道的持续关注。

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Uh, I'll be here for the next couple days until we have Thanksgiving. Very, very thankful that all of you have supported and continue to watch the channel.

嗯,上周是情绪化的一周。显然很艰难。我们很多人都损失了很多钱。

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Uh, last week was an emotional week. Obviously, it was tough. A lot of us lost a lot of money.

我的意思是,看到投资组合下跌这么多是很艰难的。但这也是游戏的一部分。

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I mean, it's tough to see portfolios go down as much as they have gone down. But it's also part of the game.

你会经历那些美好的日子,你充满兴奋,感觉生活更富裕、更幸福,因为你配置了资本,但你也必须经历那些让你感觉糟糕的日子才能达到那些美好的日子。

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You get those beautiful days where you have so much excitement and you feel so much richer and happier about life because you allocated capital, but you also have to get to those days by going through the days where you feel like [ __ ] And quite frankly, last week was a shitty week.

坦率地说,上周是糟糕的一周。我认为我们所有人都会继续度过难关。

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I think all of us will continue to get through it.

如果我们投资于世界上最重要的公司,那么这些公司很可能会继续执行。谢谢大家的收听和观看。我们下期节目再见。

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And if we're invested in the most important companies in the world, then likely those companies will continue to execute. Thank you everybody for listening and watching. I'll see you guys in the next