Hello and welcome to another episode of the OddLotss podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal.

And I'm Tracy Aloway.

Tracy, every day feels like stocks and gold go up. every day. Stocks and gold and stocks and gold and it's just it's relentless.

I'll tell you what, it's good for anyone invested in an index fund and a bunch of gold coins that their dad gave them.

Yeah, good for you.

Yeah, thank you.

The Tracy Elo portfolio doing very well.

Yes. No, you are absolutely right. And the big thing about this is it's not really supposed to happen, right? Like you're not supposed to see stocks shoot up because of optimism about the future while gold simultaneously goes up because gold traditionally is this sort of dow yellow rock as you like to describe it which usually signals something bad is about to happen.

I'm going to relent. I'm going to relent on something.

Are you a gold bug now?

No. Well, I'm going to relent on something.

Okay, here we go.

I admit that gold is a metal. This is my big cave. I always

No longer a rock.

Yeah, this is my big cave. I used to say those yellow rocks. You know what? I'll acknowledge it's a metal.

If it's a metal now, will you admit that it has industrial applications?

Yeah, but they're very minor. And this is also I will not acknowledge that there is a I it is mainly a store of value or perceived to be. And when people are fearful, when people are mistrustful, when people don't trust fiat currencies or the governments, and there's all kinds of reasons to be skeptical about the governments that issue paper currencies, I understand why people want to hold this metal that people have used as money for thousands of years.

I'm going to take you back to the jewelry district in New York and get you more excited about gold again.

No. But I'll just say on gold, I loved it. And and know I wore that big chain when we went to the diamond district and I wish id bought it. Like cuz now that's like my big regret. It was like $35,000 gold necklace and that today would probably be a $45 or $50,000 gold necklace.

Imagine how much that diamond encrusted Furby would be worth.

This is the thing they don't tell you about gold, by the way.

If you spend$10,000, this is my crank take on gold. That's not crank. If you spend $10,000 on a gold necklace

Mhm.

they give you a $10,000 gold necklace.

Yes.

It's free. They It's like you spend $10,000, they give you something for $10,000 back. In a sense, it's a free transaction.

No, you get two things. You get something to wear and an investment.

Yeah. You actually Yeah. I wish I had had this realization when gold was like $200 an ounce, but anyway, it took me a while. Anyway,

we'll make a gold bug of you yet, I'm sure.

So, these are really exciting, wild times in the market. And um the last time uh we talked to this guest was another wild time and an exciting time in the market. That was of course April. We do in fact have the perfect guest to try to understand everything that's happening all around the world in global macro. We are going to be speaking with the vice chair of global macro at Deutsche Bank Ozan Tarman. Ozan thank you so much for coming back on OddLots. Last time we talked to you we were in London. This time you're in New York. So thank you for coming to visit us.

Very good to be in New York. I love to be on this show. I mean honor to be invited again. Una macro dinners. This is the highlights.

Yeah, thank you.

Thank you.

And by the way, I was going to bring my United AMA jersey. Dear Joe really looks like him. And some baklava for Tracy, but couldn't find in the airport. Next time.

That's a good reason to do another future episode. Actually, we talked a lot about gold in the beginning, but I don't want to first ask about gold. Is Nvidia swallowing the entire US or maybe even global economy?

Almost hand in hand, right? These two questions. I mean they both continue to go higher and higher.

Actually let me start with gold because you did you did put such an intro in it.

One of the very famous memes on the internet carer done maybe two three years ago. uh this uh gentleman or lady running a big macro hedge fund looks around I run very complicated products but at the end I buy gold and uh these days that resonates even more mentioned even more and more in these uh round tables in TV studios like this normally that jinx things but it doesn't because at the moment it it works in risk on and risk off last time you were around again you called me at a very relevant time questioning US exceptionalism I'm sure we'll go into that Yeah.

What's going on with US institutions? Those question marks, all those question marks against the dollar help gold effect is about stories against dollar. I'm sure we'll go into this as well. Some of the stories are now having a less easy time.

Then people like to go into gold and we're may be going into a rate cut period cycle or not whether you're Miran or Hamach that that differs but gold works in that as well. So for the moment I always feel you know when it's the top trade on TVs on my round tables I put the orange sign on but at the moment it works for a reason. Now Nvidia yeah I mean if you had this show a year ago as well you could have said

as of this morning one of my partners in success sos his piece is already viral he's claiming tongue and cheek that Nvidia is almost keeping us away from a recession. all that chip story, all that capex spending. If it wasn't for that, maybe we could either question or be in a recession.

I'm not sure he's saying it that tongue and cheek though.

Agreed. And also others are uh joining him. Uh again, I'm hearing from my dear friends clients this very morning. Bane claims unless uh revenues quickly catch up with all this uh AI capex spend, we may be in big trouble. All of this will burst by 2030 and will go into recession before then. Now we can say a lot can happen before 2030 but warning signs are there. Last night's uh big headlines the reason why again NASDAQ close on the highs.

Nidia investing into open AI that also becomes almost circular. I mean this is not tongue and cheek either.

Oracle invest in open AI openai invest in Nidia back and forth back and forth. Is this a closed circle? I hear all the skepticism

also mainly coming from those who haven't caught this big rally since uh

a bubble is a is a is a bull market that that you missed out on.

I call gold a bubble. Tracy calls it a boom because of the difference and inherited a bunch of

gold. Exactly.

I should just mention we're recording this on September 28th.

I like that. Right before right before Paul's speech, right before Trump's speech. So just on AI and the sort of selfdealing circleish circuitous incestuous relationships perhaps one of the reasons we like talking to you is because you talk to a lot of clients and so you hear a lot of feedback from the buy side as well. What are people looking out for in terms of saying okay this is a bubble because it seems like all right people have been talking about high valuations for a really long time the stock just goes up. Is there something else that people are like watching for in which case they might say actually we're going to start cutting back positions?

Excellent question. Almost like two months ago I was hearing more I'm skeptical but Fed cuts are also coming. You can't fight this. Now especially from the pros who who've been around uh '90s and beyond. I do hear look this does feel a bit like end of 90s beginning of 2000s. By the way, the year you pick is very important there. But we may still run. That's one thing that more seasoned equity beyond macro pros are saying. I also, it was a bit the beginning of my career, but I was around in late '9s, early 2000s. Then the denominator almost didn't exist in this valuation discussions. There was hardly any cash around. Everybody

stuck uh Joe.com is excellent in B2B, even better in B2C. And you know, of course, hindsight is the world's top hedge fund, but you you could you could feel it. Whereas this time around you can question the 100 billions thrown around in a circle but you cannot question much the revenue the cash uh Jensen Nvidia OpenAI is bringing to the table you cannot question much let's go beyond Nvidia a bit into Magnificent 7 Microsoft Apple alphabet they have customers all of us are are their customers they make money so and in a way talking about circle more positive way of more glass half full way of looking at it. Nvidia is the big champ. Okay. But take

Nidia aside all of a sudden Oracle became a story for a reason. From Oracle we go to Alphabet because for this time around Judge decided favorably on Chrome.

The story continues moves from uh one asset to another. Also yeah Nidia is doing great. We'll talk about how uh NASDAQ the Hercules is catching up with my bluehead mega but it's uh rally is spreading like Nvidia is not the top stock in S&P year to date talking about waiting for God though finally small caps rose up

since the famous now Jackson another famous Jackson speech

so it's not just one one guy is very important November 19 earnings are very important but it's not just one stock

by the way ozan was regailing us or showing off his Make Europe Great Again hat. It's signed by Mario Draghy. If I owned that, I'm very jealous.

I would not be carrying it around. I would be carrying it in a glass case and selling it maybe for eBay.

You'd have it in the vault along with your gold coins.

I would have it in the vault along with my gold. But I uh I respect

That's how much how much I respect my clients. I want to show off.

Before we go further, actually for listeners who maybe uh didn't hear our previous episode with you and April, can you just give us a little back? You talked to everyone. you have these dinners, you it affords you an incredible perspective on what a range of people on the street are thinking about just so that people can understand your perspective and where you're coming from. What do you do like on a day-to-day basis? Who are the range of people that you talk to and how do you interact with them?

Uh my job is to talk to my bank's top uh institution clients honest talent relationships going going deep. This also includes now sovereign wealth funds, key private banking institutions and I love I'm as you know I'm a person who tries to bring things together. So in these round tables small or big

it's not just hedge funds it's not just real money it's not just for funds all asset classes credit rates FX emerging markets my proud tera equity of course uh so they learn from each other as well because uh we talked about the in these shows and equity perspective can be very different to a race perspective right as we speak again we're in one of these doldrums on if you define macro just as rates and effects it's almost like a magnet 412 Okay, we try we on US 10 year we we tried below 4% 412 413 414 as Tracy said we are recording this on September 23 at 9:00 a.m. In 3 hours, Chair Powell will speak. Let's see if he changes tone or sticks to his so-called hawkish presser. Some people hope that may again ignite a little bit of another stronger uh rates higher tone.

Otherwise, volatility in FX and rates are struggling. Meanwhile, equities continue to better and better. And back to your question, different sets of clients coming to my round tables, coming to my realm, learn from each other on why different asset classes act differently.

So, you mentioned the dollar just then and of course you have a very international group of clients that you're talking to. Can we talk about the dollar drop this year because I think it's really important and even though it gets some attention, it's nowhere near enough because we're talking about stocks rallying, US stocks rallying, things look a lot different when you start to adjust for currencies. How are people thinking about US assets in light of the dollar drop?

Very fair. I'm team ODLOS, so I also remember last time we met is April 16 in London. So just uh a week before the big fear euro dollar was right around 110 111 we were beginning to sense that this could be a historic year in terms of this dorization hedge fund ratios changing but we swiftly moved beyond 115 as well. Now looking at the picture two things are very important. First of all, the flaws. Back to our friend Nvidia, back to our friend Magnificent 7.

Because one push back from some of my especially fast money friends who all either smell, want or wish a dollar squeeze after such a soft dollar move is what will the flows do? World continues to buy Nvidia and Microsofts. Do they buy it hedged?

So I was a little bit skeptical on that. By the way, flows are back. So a big difference to April 16. Yeah, we'll talk we can talk about that as well. Retail L rally. Look where we are. All-time highs. My research reports and claims again George Cervados that in the last recent 30 45 days or so those flows almost 80% of them are hedged. So people are buying their Nidia hedged. So believe it or not 80% is a big number. Say 70 say 60 that definitely helps the soft dollar side of things. What continues to help is of course institutionalists decreasing their exposure to us like hindsight I said rightly on that April 16 nothing to and the US private side exceptionalism Nvidia's Microsoft so far are fighting back the threats of deepseek even though champion of the year is China in terms of performance but from Asia to Nordics big big funds are reducing their dollar exposure a little bit. 7 to 65, 60 to 55. That makes a difference. That made a difference.

This is really important. I think we should just continue on the specific line because what it sounds like is all around the world, you have to have dollars to buy Nvidia. Nvidia is a stock that's sold in dollars. Its profits are denominated in dollars. Its sales, it sells things in dollars. And that's the same for all of the Mag 7, including Microsoft and Apple. And all of them are doing phenomenally well. They have real profits, real earnings and so forth. They're very excellent businesses. And it sounds like basically all around the world people want exposure to a handful of extraordinary US companies. Correct. They just don't want to take the risk that that denominator and this time we're not talking about earnings, but that that or that the the dollar that they trade in or sell in etc. is going to go down further. So they want everything about this. They just basically don't want the US sovereign exposure that's connected to these American doiciled companies.

Completely correct. And honestly, I was a little bit skeptic. I wasn't sure if you told me Ozan this year this big surge in back in Nidia Microsoft won't happen then I would feel even more comfortable with the short position. But uh Magnificent 7 roared yeah

it may even pass mega despite that dollar is also remaining soft. So whether I was skeptical or not, what you explained is happening. But I think for the next legs, ours included a lot of bianial site are calling for 1202 like levels. You need now the European side of the story or whoever you want to talk about Japan, China, the lagger side of the story. FX is too late. We talked about why dollar side of short dollar worked.

Yeah,

we need now a bit more help from our uh European story.

Tracy, you know what strikes me as interesting about this, which is that when we think about countries where there's political risk and so forth, we don't often associate them with the most impressive enterprises in the world. And it strikes me that that's the tension we're talking about here, which is that there's all this anxiety about the US as a sovereign for all kinds of reasons. That's not unusual. Other countries have sovereign risk. They're just usually not home to literally the most impressive companies in the world.

No. And it is true that most of the investor nervousness around the US has shown up on the sovereign side.

Yeah. Not the corporate side

rather than the corporate side which we've been writing about in the Oddlots newsletter

which everyone should subscribe to.

Seamless plug just then. Okay. One of the other I guess big questions about the market right now is there's clearly nervousness about fiscal dominance and Federal Reserve independence and that is playing into the drop in the dollar too. And yet at the same time, stocks seem to be taking off and a lot of investors don't seem to be that nervous, at least on the equity side. What accounts for the discrepancy there?

The two different roles. Talking about plugins, I also love the New York Times piece. I think you guys deserve all the trust me all those friends clients, they listen. They they get very excited when I'm on. Now, Tracy definitely hit the right point. Dolorization is one key big theme going into the end of the year. Fiscal dominance or not and the famous Fed independence. Those are my second and third key topics. By the way, where are where are tariffs? All the way down to four.

I forgot about those tariffs.

Fiscal dominance. So we talked right I love uh brainstorming with you guys. You remember what I said in August as well summer everybody was everybody like some key investors especially fast money were gunning for from my dear island four key trust moments in four countries at the same time what does that mean I mean trust moment we sadly know what I'm talking about long yand getting out of control for people's uh for markets big fiscal

US UK Japan what's the fourth

for the right reasons Europe boom

for the right reasons because ramp up the German spending will come at the end of um at the end of the year etc. Some key investors were asking well one trust moment we know how we handled chancellor then prime minister goes different sets of policies what happens if four goes at the same time and we tried this on talking about dates September 2 when you guys came back from wherever you came back from on the long uh final final long vacation uh long weekend

UK guilts big move followed by France because prime minister was about to go in six days join Tracy How long did it last? 4 hours. That long and sell off lasted 4 hours. And I'm not trying to be funny. Basically, since then, US 30 years uh Europe, even UK has been much more under control up until the hish presser almost uh threatening below 4%. Even more than short dollars, Tracy, over the summer and into fall, what were the real money and hedge funds common favorite trade? Steepeners. Steepeners. Steepeners. Europe, US, everybody and their brother had steepeners. First for different reasons on US more due to the short end that sooner or later will come to the Fed independence. The Trump side of the equation would win more finally power would cave in the cuts would come in and on the European side even more popular because of the long end German spending coming through in October November and people believed in their stance. First US got hurt two NFPS miss long and moved big flatteners hurt gold aside whenever you say or Nvidia aside whenever you say somebody says a trade is untouchable watch out European stiffeners were supposed to be untouchable

two days after that flattening wash out in US Europe also got reduced and since the hish presser we are we are more balanced

on to fed independence again just this morning of the press Matt Rasin my head of US uh race strategy previously from the Fed very respectable analyst wrote about this Fed independence fear not being in the price not in the break evens not in the term premia

why I think a little bit because so far let's dive right into it if you wish I think this cut is justified in my mind even if they cut 50 a week ago it could have been justified talking about some dear client's friends public so I may say Rick Reer publicly on uh TV and on his writing said they may and they should cut 50 because I think if they saw divisions in June and July they probably would have cut in June and July and going forward okay they they cut 25 not only they cut 25 m did his thing probably that that's the dot but Waller Bowman stuck to 25 even some of the previous Fed governors racing for the job Bullard says they should have done 25 so people are thinking and hoping that there is still some Fed independence. Powell, even though he's the past man, has some control over the situation. That's why we're not getting any Fed independence here on the long end.

Joe, it is interesting, and I would not have expected this earlier in the year, but if you look at the move index, so the index of bond market volatility, it's going down. It's gone down quite a bit, which is not exactly what you might expect to happen when we're talking about things like fiscal dominance and Federal Reserve independence, but there you go. That is a good chart I haven't looked at in a long time. I want to go back to the gold conversation because we kind of been dancing around like oh political volatility in the US and sovereign risk in the US etc. But like let's talk about like gold in the US or gold and the dollar like when you talk to clients setting aside that it's a good trade people want to ride a good trade etc. How much fear, anxiety, etc. is there about US political stability and what are the and I mean a prominent political commentator got assassinated recently in the United States.

Sadly,

what are people at your dinners maybe inside the US or outside dinner saying about the US when they look at our country?

That's why more and more countries are building up their reserves in gold, shying away from dollar more. My motherland Turkey is an example again publicly known in terms of reserves. Also let's remember what is still going on versus Ukraine and Russia the sanctions that Russia has faced or may face. So different countries are also because of that leaning more towards gold. So besides our macro discussions uh ups and downs of rates that uncertainty that uh question mark over US policy that question mark over geopolitics lead central banks to accumulate more gold Joe for gold to go down the game should change like this year my game plan is going all right again I I was on air I thought these big air trust moments long and crushing everything wouldn't happen I didn't expect this much of a comeback but again I said there would be a comeback especially retail much more than pros believed in this h media gold go hand in hand together there should be something off the left field for example maybe on tariffs all of a sudden tariffs tongue and cheek tracy are a bit the good boy revenues they raise a lot of revenues talks about it TV talk about it torren stock talks about it if Supreme Court at whatever time and that's also very key when when they make the decision votes against I'm sure they may I know they may use S301 etc but will be all of us oh a big that's a question mark now what will the Trump administration do what will best do longans can get going again and even though it's got nothing to do with necessarily Nim media and gold the year's path may change and things like that can take us off the

what about a big handshake with Xihinping and a new I mean I don't know what it would be and you know my dream obviously is for a BYD factory in Tennessee one day Xiaomi factory etc. But could that be a oh this charts us in a new direction something that is like a real let's reset this relationship. I'm not optimistic but would that be the type of thing that could uh reset the trajectory of certain markets? You talk like my jaw like a globalist Tennessee factory BYD. I mean that's not the pulse at the moment but sure if that happens

my gut feel still says shortlived correction but yes that's that what what did I say that's not the pulse that's not the New York pulse at the moment it would be a positive surprise a little bit less scared of things surprise

and uh yeah I could see that hitting goal

So, I know it's number four on your list now, but we should talk about tariffs a little more. And I take the point that it could be a revenue generator for the US and maybe that provides some support on the bond side of things. But on the other hand, I think most people would argue that it would slow economic growth, which should be a drag on the equity side, but we haven't really seen that. How are people talking about the actual impact of tariffs right now? And I got to say, Joe, I got my first customs bill over the weekend. It wasn't too bad. I think it was like $16 or something, but they're here. I feel them personally.

Very fair comeback, I guess. Especially fast money crowd hasn't necessarily given up on speculation.

My take sort part of the reason why all these NIDA gold long and calls have been correct. I like to fade the inflation hoax and I like to fade the big recession bears who are much more quiet these days anyway. But yes, if President Trump continues to stick to them, even though on one hand they generate revenue and keep the long end under under control, there may be a growth impact on the other side accompanied by splice side immigration effects and the jury is out there on dear Mr. whether led by him whether this is the famous word three words whether this is transitory or not

more and more some clients start to say my binky the famous chief global economist start to say maybe this tariff effect wasn't as bad both on growth side and on on inflation side these people immediately get a push back early days early days let's wait so will companies continue to eat them and not pass that much to the traces of the world to the to the customer especially when we talk of beyond 10% tariffs which most countries face next year your country faces a very key midterm elections so I I think Trump and Bessant know that they got elected because of inflation so the moment the stackflation camp starts to look like they are proving correct even look like a bit of a climb on inflation more slowdown on growth I think we may we may get more and more taco

because they want to win those uh midterm elections then uh they would take more and more steps lower on tariffs but if they prove correct if it's not reflected on the customer if inflation continues to remain okay I know it's not 2% but below 3% maybe this uh status quo continues

sorry did you just call binky chada my binky

yes I did even like when we there's a lot of preparation going for these macro dimmer as well trust me when he sends his questions and his key bullet points He tells me to start with my binky. So, you got to

I don't think we've ever had him on the podcast. We got We got to uh We should

Yeah, I I I've talked to him a couple times on TV. Uh big fan of his. We got to make that happen. When you think about the US economy and maybe the European economy, too, but I think it's the US and you think about growth prospects. This is something I've been asking a lot of people about. like how much do you think the US economy as a just the forward momentum of the US economy especially over the course of your career how much has it become dependent on this perpetual rise in asset values and you think like do we need a booming market year after year just to keep that sort of like consumption demand engine investment engine going

well yes is the short answer I think the details are even more complicated a bit sad I think you need you we need in this game that's it thing it the next thing it was B2B B2C three decades ago uh 3D now of course AI I AI past three years

and also US I mean again as I said the country that gave my education right in more open times for that relies on growth relies on animal spirits relies on those asset classes to go higher and higher and that's why the Tracy question from like 10 minutes ago is very key whether we are at you know we're getting there stage of the bubble or we at the bubble because if that bursts economy can get affected as well also Joe I'm a big believer in the K economy the whole uh terminology of that so I said this again uh before on your shows world may be more okay for whatever we define ourselves as 1% 5%.1% there's a much bigger part who are struggling definitely on US but globally as well some again it's a statistics thrown out there these days 10% of the US consumers accumulate almost 50% of consumption and the rest much less wealth effect is getting bigger and bigger when I was in college running around in this country again we were talking about the wealth gap but now this becomes relevant even macro relevant that's why people like me are okay with the rate cuts risk management or not

when you encounter Americans in London or Americans in Europe or anywhere outside do they badmouth US policy do they like talk about how terrible and like how much our institutions s are deteriorating and how we need to get back to that sort of like good old-fashioned IMF orthodox economics of the good old days.

Okay, let me get the pass from Kobe and do a bit of a shack. Look uh they do it's some of especially if they have uh like me born and b emerging markets but now trading the whole wide world

and if they are Americans touring my beautiful beautiful world they are affected like they when they hear conversations like this they understand when they traded Turkey Hungary Argentina and say okay because of this politics financial repression I don't believe it that's why I'm selling the currency it was easier to do for somebody else's land and currency.

Now, both it hurts them a bit and also it becomes a bit of a dilemma, right? They may continue to criticize some of the things that are going on, but for the arguments that I I laid out risk parity at least the equity part continues to do okay and US 10 years still is not going to 6%. It frustrates them. This brings me to not in the in our big big ones but big thematics a key point going forward much beyond the fourth quarter what's going to win the trust moments my symbolic way of saying fiscal dominance or financial repression

again as somebody who's experienced in these turkeys Hungary Argentinos of the world

what does dear Mr. Best say is a former client friend tell a friend bending the curve he literally said I'll bend the curve we will take care of the curve you know he said banned he will not take care of maybe through like they do being very watchful over the auctions making sure auctions go very well which they have been one tips auction aside maybe through buying much more on the short end vice versa buying more on the on the long end to make sure that those rates stay under control operation twist Allah 1112 they may win over majorities thought that fiscal dominance will win. My Godfield continued to say

don't necessarily bet against whether you like it or not. Fed and Treasury working more closely together on this all US financial repression.

Going back to your questions, some clients, Americans I meet in New York, London or S. Paulo are a bit takenback by saying are we becoming a bit emerging marketized? What do you mean by Treasury and Fed working even closely together this is not 2008 2009 but so far those who bet towards that those who bet with Mr. Bent did better on their long and US views.

Speaking of the wide world, what are your clients saying about China in particular? Because, you know, I'm looking at a very good Bloomberg story on my screen right now. China floods the world with cheap exports after Trump's tariffs. And I think they just posted a record trade surplus.

And there was another good article this morning. China wanting to be a gold storage hub, which I thought was really striking.

He did become a gold hub gold

doing a Switzerland, I guess.

Yeah. Yeah.

But on the other hand, you know, growth has been slowing in China and there is deflation. But if you look at something like the Shanghai composite, it feels like people are starting to get a little bit more optimistic. What are you hearing?

Three parts of that. First of all, China as an asset class. We have it here as alongside golden emerging markets champion of the year in December, November, January earlier. Everybody and their brother a bit like this. Not a bit like the steepener trade of this August early September. It was the top trade going long dollar CNH.

These tariffs lighter they would be the toughest on China. There is no way. All the dollar CN calls were both starting with 7 and a half strikes at 8. All of that didn't materialize. Okay, we didn't go to 690 680 but the CH is appreciating. talking about the day we made April 16 on April 9th the big fear was on that morning when we questioned the system April 9 morning China would devalue big time big bank they didn't do any of that and currently my head of greater China trading 10 who namerop nicely called this China tech and CN rally thinks that and with his research R&B strength has more legs to go because wherever they go around the world Peru ports Brazil Amazon forests following the China corporates back to our discussion these guys are full of dollars out of their ears and now for discussions for the points that you mentioned they want to hedge a little bit so they want to sell their dollars a little bit and that's a big factor so that's I think China tech will continue to be the champion asset class gone to my head maybe not going to 690 680 but I am still betting with CN and R&B strength over dollar strength one of these leagers of the year will do better to the world effect you guys actually Bloomberg had a piece this very morning like Tracy said on exporting this inflation.

So two big countries in this in this world our America and our China Mr. Trump is doing what he's doing on the tariff side. These other big countries of the world don't necessarily fight with the other big giant in the world stage. So those cheap cars are coming into Europe and beyond and that is a macro factor. Why? Because ECB back to blue hat now

they're done. Madame Lagard very definely says they're done for now. Madame Schneabel for now is winning the discussion. Even Lane is sounding a bit more like her, more hawkish.

Let's see. They don't we maybe we don't have an inflation problem printing below 2%. If anything, my Mark W chief European economist thinks it may go lower to 1.6 1.5. If that happens, let's see what their tone is come December, come January. If this China continues to export to this inflation, maybe even though they don't say it now, they may have to end up cutting. So that that's a big factor for the European story. Joe, we should have asked Ozan to wear his Europe hat for this entire interview.

I know it's a cool hat. Ozan Tarman, vice chair of global macro at Deutsche Bank. Always a pleasure meeting up with you. Always seems to be at exciting times in the market. Uh, also we like talking to you because it's just a list of um Deutsche Bank analysts like, "Oh yeah, we need to talk to that guy. We need to talk to that guy." Follow my job. Bring them on. Yeah, right. I know. Good sales. Anyway, thank you so much.

This was great. Thank you so much.

I love catching up with Ozan for all kinds. Always really fun. He has a great read on one of the popular trades. Oh, for sure. Right now. And

or just the talking points, right?

And the talking points. this idea that you know we we don't talk about the Chinese market that much in terms uh terms of the stock market we do a little bit but the idea that from his perspective long China is up there right now with all the big ones Nvidia and gold and up until recently the steepener maybe that's fallen off a little bit because it hasn't worked as well that this is one of the sort of top tier consensus trades right now something that we should probably talk about further

I also find it interesting that tariffs have fallen from number one on the list of concerns to like number four if that

no that's totally right I mean when we when we talked to him that was middle of April in London or early April I think and so it was all about tariffs and yet despite the fact that tariffs are not top of mind for a lot of traders apparently right now it is interesting that still this idea to

we don't really want to have exposure to the US per se we want to have exposure to US companies but not the us per se. That's all part of the story.

Speaking of which, another really good chart to look at right now is gold versus real rates. So, you can bring up like tip yields or something like that. And you can see there used to be a really strong almost one for one correlation and that's broken. Now,

that's very interesting, right? Because it suggests that there's something else going on, right? Because it's very easy to say, okay, real rates, etc., they're going down. You want to like

I think it's that sovereign concern.

It's that sovereign concern. It's like something deeper and it may be deeper to a lot of different sort of, you know, western governments and fiat currencies and so forth. A lack of trust, maybe something that doesn't show up in a traditional market showing up in gold. I do think that's really important.

Yeah. All right. Shall we leave it there?

Let's leave it there.

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