Netflix财报失利开启科技巨头财报季,高动量股票遭遇重挫 Amit Kukreja 2025-10-21

开篇:Netflix财报与市场宏观概览

好的,大家好,欢迎回到新一期的《市场收盘》。我们即将迎来 Netflix 的财报,这将正式拉开大型科技公司财报季的序幕。我对此感到非常兴奋。所以,我们来看看 Netflix 能交出什么样的成绩单。Netflix 今年迄今上涨了 40%,但过去三个月股价一直持平。因此,今天将是关键的一天,我们将看到 Netflix 能否公布一些能让华尔街兴奋的数字。也许他们终于会给我们进行一次股票分割(Stock Split: 将一股股票拆分成多股,降低单股价格以吸引更多投资者),那就太好了,能把这只股票的价格从 1200 美元降到 120 美元。但我们还是得看看 Netflix 最终会发生什么。如果你持有这只股票,请告诉我,我们会进行“上涨或下跌”的投票。今天早上,你们大多数人都认为是上涨。我们拭目以待 Netflix 今天的结果。

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All right. Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market close. We've got Netflix earnings on deck. This will be officially starting off big tech earnings. I am very excited for it. So, we are going to see what Netflix can put up. Netflix is up 40% year to date. Uh, but stock's been flat for the past three months. So, today is going to be one of those days where we see if Netflix can put up some numbers that can get the street excited. Maybe they finally finally give us a stock split, which would be very nice. Get this sucker down to $120 instead of $1,200. But, we're going to see what ends up happening on Netflix. Let me know if you own this stock and we'll do the pump or dump poll. Most of you guys said pump versus dump in the morning. Uh we're going to see what ends up happening with Netflix today.

除此之外,黄金经历了自 2013 年 4 月以来最糟糕的一天。黄金现在基本上处于盘中低点。我想它比现在的价格还要低一点,但基本上这是它首次单日下跌 5%。这意味着超过五千亿美元的市值(Market Cap: 公司已发行股票的总市场价值)从黄金市场蒸发。白银当日下跌 7.5%。所以很明显,大宗商品交易出现了一些波折。我们将讨论这是否是结构性的问题,是否是各国央行在清算,还是越来越多的人变得过于乐观,导致交易变得过度拥挤。但无论你给出什么理由,今天都是大宗商品受到冲击的日子。

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On top of that, gold has its worst day since April 2013. Gold is now basically at the intraday lows. I think it got a little bit lower than what it's at right now, but essentially its first 5% down day. That is over one half trillion dollars of market cap. That has left gold. Silver down 7.5% on the day. So obviously the commodity trade has taken a bit of a hiccup. We are going to discuss if this is structural, if this is essentially central banks liquidating, if more and more people are getting too euphoric, so the trade's getting overcrowded, but whatever reason you want to give it, today is one of those days where commodities are taking a bit of a hit.

今天我们看到的另一个大新闻是,道琼斯指数有望首次收于 47000 点以上,这将是相当疯狂的。抱歉切换了摄像头,各位。我以为我的相机在过去一个小时里一直在充电,但实际上没有。所以,相机没电了,大约 20 分钟后应该会恢复。不过,标普 500 指数今天表现不错,收于 672 点,这还不错,距离历史最高点仅差两美元。

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And then the sort of other big story that we're seeing today is that the Dow Jones is on track to potentially close over 47,000 for the first time, which would be quite crazy to see. Uh, sorry to switch the camera, guys. I thought my camera was charging for the past hour, but it wasn't. So, camera is dead. It should come back in about 20 minutes. The S&P 500 though, pretty green for the day. 672. 672 on the S&P 500, which is not too bad. Two bucks away from alltime highs.

市场分化:高动量股回调与资金轮动

与此同时,延续了我们过去几天一直在讨论的趋势,对于一些动量股来说,过去一周的情况并不乐观。正如你所看到的,Oklo、DWave、Big Bear AI、Rigetti、IonQ、NuScale Power、Nano Nuclear、MP Materials、U.S. Gold Corp。我甚至不知道这些股票在过去一周下跌了这么多,但为了在推特上发这个帖子,我不得不查看它们的周表现。是的,情况不容乐观。我的意思是,跌幅普遍在 15% 到 30% 之间。在今天的实际市场中,它们也遭受了更大的打击。Oklo 今天下跌了 14%,DWave 下跌了 7%,IonQ 下跌了 1%。Rigetti 我相信下跌了约 8.3%。NuScale Power,另一只核能股,下跌了 12%。Nano Nuclear 今天下跌了 8.3%。即使是我认为比其他股票更有潜力的 AST SpaceMobile,今天早上也下跌了 5%。

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At the same time, continuing with kind of the trend we've been talking about over the past couple of days. Uh, it's not the prettiest for some of the momentum names over the past week. As you can see, Oaklo, DWave, Big Bear AI, Regetti, INQ, SMR, Nanuclear, MP, US. I didn't even know these stocks were down this much over the past week, but to make this post on Twitter, I had to like look at their weak performances. And yeah, it's not pretty. I mean, ranging from 15 to 30% across the board in the actual market today, they also took a bigger hit. Oaklo right here down 14% on the day. Dwave down 7% on the day. OQ down 1%. Regetti was down I believe about 8.3% that loses 40. SMR, another nuclear name, that one was down 12%. Nanuclear that one's down today 8.3% even in AS which I think has a lot more potential than the other names that one is losing 80 down 5% this morning.

那么,我们能从中得出什么结论呢?我认为结论是,如果标普指数能够守住历史高点——再次强调,674 点是历史高点,我们现在是 672 点——如果英伟达能守住 180 美元,如果特斯拉能守住 441 美元,如果 Palantir 能守住 180 美元,而所有这些其他动量股都无法维持其势头,那么也许这种势头正在消退,并可能正在轮换到其他股票上。看看亚马逊先生。昨天它经历了过去五年来最严重的一次服务中断,半个互联网都瘫痪了。股价跌至 223 美元,但今天收盘将高于 220 美元,当日上涨 2.23%。

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So what is the takeaway from this? I think the takeaway is that if the S&P is able to hold on to basically alltime highs I mean again 674 is the alltime high. We're at 672. If Nvidia is able to hold on to 180, if Tesla is able to hold on to 441, if Pound here is able to hold on to 180 and all these other names are not able to hold on to their momentum, then maybe that momentum is fading and maybe that momentum is rotating into other names. I mean, take a look at Mr. Amazon. Had one of the worst outages in the past five years yesterday. Half the internet shutdown. Stock hit 223. It's going to close above 220, up 2.23% on the day.

所以,黄金下跌,白银下跌,所有高动量股票都在下跌。更不用说 Iren,我知道很多人喜欢这只股票,今天也受到了冲击,下跌了 7%。Cipher 下跌 10%,CleanSpark 下跌 8%,Wolfspeed 下跌 5%,Bitfarms 下跌 9%。这只股票上周三还在 6.70 或 6.60 美元,现在回落到 4.50 美元。Marathon 下跌 4%,Riot 下跌 6%。Galaxy 之所以上涨,唯一的原因是他们公布了良好的财报,而且是现象级的财报。他们的每股收益(EPS - Earnings Per Share: 公司每一股股票在特定时期内产生的利润)超出了预期 200%。所有这些公司都应该被迫拿出像 Galaxy 一样的业绩,才能获得溢价。进入财报季,我们将看到会发生什么。但到目前为止,他们还没有做到。稀土股也一样,MP Materials 下跌 10%,U.S. Gold Corp. 下跌 15%,TMC the metals company 下跌 9%,Critical Metals 下跌 16%,Lithium Americas 下跌约 1%。

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So you got gold down, you got silver down, you've got all the high momentum plays down, not to mention Iran, which I know a lot of people love that one getting hit today, down 7%, cipher down 10%, cleans down 8%, Wolf down 5%, Bit Farms down 9%. This thing was 670 or 660 last Wednesday back down to 450. Marathon down 4%. Ride down 6%. The only reason Galaxy is up is because they put up good earnings and they put up phenomenal earnings. They beat EPS by 200%. All these companies should be forced to put up Galaxy types of results to be able to get the premium and going into earnings uh into the earning cycle we're going to see what happens. But so far they haven't done that. The rare earth names the same thing. MP down 10, US down 15, TMQ down nine, critical metals down 16, LAC down about 1%.

所以我认为,真正的启示在于,标普 500 指数几乎处于历史最高点,道琼斯指数可能首次收于 47000 点以上。是的,它现在是 46999.6 点。这绝不是熊市的信号,无论从哪个角度看都不是。这是非常牛市的。只是那些高动量股票无法维持其势头。我们将观察这种势头是否会回归,财报是否能改变局面,或者这些股票是否不幸地造就了数百万的**“接盘侠”**(Bag Holders: 指在高位买入股票后,股价大幅下跌,导致投资者长期亏损持有的俚语)。但时间会告诉我们这一切将如何发展。英伟达目前在 181 美元,标普 500 指数在 672 点。

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So I think the real takeaway for this is the fact that the S&P is almost at all time highs. The fact that the Dow Jones might close above 40,000 or 47,000 for the first time ever in history. Yeah, it's at 46,9996. That's not bearish. That is not bearish by any sense of the imagination. That is very bullish. It's just those high momentum names are not able to hold on to their momentum. And you know, we're going to see if that momentum comes back, if the earnings can change the picture or if those names have unfortunately created millions of bag holders. But time will tell in terms of how that plays out. Nvidia right there 181 then the S&P 500 672.

科技行业动态:OpenAI浏览器与谷歌的应对

顺便说一句,如果你在谷歌股价跌至 244 美元时抄底了,那你现在已经得到了回报。OpenAI 发布了他们的浏览器,我们看到了它的样子,叫做 Atlas。显然,当他们宣布它叫 Atlas 时,所有人都耸了耸肩。所以,你知道,当他们宣布 Atlas 时,所有人都耸了耸肩。但不管怎样,它就叫 Atlas。我觉得它看起来挺酷的,说实话有点像 Perplexity,但它只在 Mac OS 上可用。也许这也是谷歌股价受益的一个原因,因为它不会有大规模的发行。

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By the way, if you bought that Google dip down to 244, you were rewarded. So, uh, OpenAI released their browser. We saw what it looks like. It's called Atlas. And apparently once they announced that it was called Atlas, everyone ended up shrugging. So, you know, everyone shrugged when they announced Atlas. But, nonetheless, it is called Atlas. And I mean, it looks kind of cool. It kind of looks like Perplexity to be honest, but uh, it's only available on Mac OS. Maybe that's also a reason why Google got a bit of a benefit because, uh, it's not going to have widescale distribution.

屏幕上是它的视频,你可以看到发生了什么。它看起来像带有更多 AI 功能的 Google Chrome,也像带有 AI 助手的 Perplexity,在你问不同问题时提供帮助。所以,你知道,它并不是最令人兴奋的。这就是为什么谷歌股价回到了 252 美元。当 OpenAI 在推特上宣布他们要推出新浏览器时,谷歌的市值蒸发了 1000 亿美元。现在看来,很多钱又回流到了谷歌,因为市场对此并不太在意。

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But, there's the video that is on screen and you can see what's going on there? And uh look, it looks like Google Chrome but with more AI features. It looks like perplexity with an AI assistant when you're asking different questions. So, you know, I mean, it it was not the most exciting. That's why Google got back to 252. Google lost a 100red billion in market cap when OpenAI put out the tweet that they're putting out a new browser. And uh you know, a lot of that money seems to have come back to Google because the market doesn't care too much.

所以,朋友,我不认为这对谷歌是利空。难道我们认为 Google Chrome 不会在你访问的任何网站旁边添加一个小聊天机器人吗?认为这对 Chrome 或任何其他已经拥有垄断地位的浏览器是巨大的利空,这简直是个笑话,因为它们随时可以添加所有这些功能。所以我不知道,我对此并没有特别受启发。它看起来很酷,我相信会有人用。我只是不认为它会与 Chrome 有那么大的差异化。因此,我认为这就是为什么谷歌在这里得到了一些好处。感谢所有认出《阿特拉斯耸耸肩》这个梗的人。我非常非常感激。我需要确保人们能欣赏我的一些笑话,尽管这甚至不是原创笑话,我是从别人那里偷来的。向 Douggee 致敬,我是从他那里偷的。

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So, dude, I don't think this is a bare case for Google. I mean, are we saying Google Chrome's not going to add a little chatbot on the side of whatever website you are? Like, it has got to be a joke to imagine that this is a massive barecase for Chrome or for any of these other browsers that already have a monopoly because they can add all this stuff anyway. So, I don't know. I'm not super inspired by this. It looks cool. I'm sure people will use it. I I just don't think it's going to be that differentiated from Chrome. And as a result, I think that's why Google got a bit of a benefit uh here. Thank you for all those who recognize the Atlas shrugged reference. Uh, I deeply deeply appreciate it. I need to need to make sure people people value some of my jokes, even though it's not even an original joke. I stole it from someone else. Shout out to Douggee. I stole it from Douggee.

市场热点:Beyond Meat轧空与高风险股交易

好了,这就是我们在谷歌方面看到的情况。现在,Beyond Meat,我不知道该如何解释。坦白说,Beyond Meat 超出了我的理解范围。我不知道该说什么。股价 3.72 美元,上涨了 153%。在这一点上,我认为它只是在被轧空(Short Squeeze: 指股价快速上涨,迫使做空者买入股票以平仓,从而进一步推高股价的现象),我认为这背后没有任何理性可言。他们今天确实宣布了与沃尔玛的合作关系。在聊天中告诉我,你是否在这只股票上赚了钱,是否获利了结,是否卖出了看涨期权,卖出了看跌期权,或者买入了看跌期权。我不知道发生了什么。

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All right, so that's what we got. Uh, in the context of Google. Now, Beyond Meat, I don't know how to explain this. Beyond Meat, quite frankly, is beyond me. I don't know what to say. 372. It's up 153%. At this point, I think it's just getting squeezed, and I don't think uh there's any rationale behind it. They did announce a Walmart partnership today. Let me know in the chat if you made any money on this one and if you uh if you took any profits, if you sold any calls, sold any puts, bought any puts on it. I don't know what's going on.

我的意思是,如果你在我们谈到的所有其他高动量股票上买了看跌期权,甚至是杠杆做空的反向ETF(Inverse ETFs: 一种旨在提供与标的指数相反日回报的交易所交易基金),你今天会过得很愉快。但如果你在 Beyond Meat 上买了看跌期权,今天就不那么美好了。也许这是下一个要下跌的股票,也是买入看跌期权的好机会。但我也无法理解它为什么首先会上涨。当天上涨 152%,并且还在继续走高。

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I mean, if you bought puts on all the other high momentum names that we talked about or even the leverage short inverse ETFs, you're having a great day. If you bought puts on Beyond Meat, it's not having a great day so far. Maybe this is the next play to go down and this is a good opportunity to buy puts on. But I also don't understand why it's up in the first place. 152% on the day as it continues to go green.

这和我过去几周对很多高动量股票的看法一样:在短期内,当你持有一只像亚马逊或 Grab 这样毫无动静的股票,而 Oklo 却涨到 190 美元时,感觉真的很烦人。但当事情回归现实时,你就会记起,这就是你为什么不冒那些风险的原因。所以对于 Beyond Meat,你交易时必须非常小心。但如果有什么实质性的利好,我很想知道。我只是没看到除了与沃尔玛的合作之外有任何实质性的东西,我不知道这是否足以让市值增加约 150%。但它今天确实是上涨的。有几位朋友说他们在这上面赚了钱。是的,我的意思是,如果你赚了钱,你交易了它,那还不错。它的做空比例超过 50%,所以看起来这就是轧空的原因。问题是,是否真的有财报来支撑现在发生的轧空行情。

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Again, same thing I've been saying for the past couple weeks with a lot of the high momentum names in the in the short term, it really feels annoying when you're in a stock like an Amazon or a Grab that's not doing anything and Oaklo is going to 190. But then you kind of remember when things come back down to reality, that's the reason you don't take some of those risks. So with Beyond Meat, you got to be very careful trading this. But if there was something legit, I would love to know. I just don't see anything legit outside of this Walmart partnership, which I don't know if that's enough to increase the market cap by about 150%. But that is green on the day. A couple of you guys saying I made some money on it. Yeah, I mean look, if you made some money, you traded it, not too bad. It is shorted more than 50%. So, it looks like that is the reason for the squeeze. It's just a question is on if on if there's actually going to be earnings to kind of back up the nature of the squeeze that's happening right now.

Nuvei 也受到了冲击。我之前卖出了 98 美元的看跌期权,也许我最终会被行权,谁知道呢。我已经告诉过你们,我开始对 Nuvei 进行深入研究。我确实希望它低于 100 美元。如果我最终以 98 美元的价格拿到,我会很乐意被行权。但这只股票今天也稍作喘息。我不认为 Nuvei 像其他高动量股票,除了它疯狂上涨之外。但它的疯狂上涨背后有一个由实际收入和盈利支撑的故事,也就是它获得的 190 亿美元微软交易。很多其他上涨的公司并没有与之相关的东西。但话说回来,在 140 美元时,它在两个月内从 60 美元涨到 140 美元合理吗?可能不合理。所以它正在喘息。它今年迄今仍上涨了 250%。就像 Robinhood 从 150 美元回落到 130 美元,但今年迄今仍上涨了 230%。我认为没有人能抱怨这一点,但这些股票现在比几周前更具吸引力了。看到它们稍作喘息也并不奇怪。

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Nabius, Nabius getting hit. So, again, I did sell puts at $98. Uh maybe I end up getting assigned. Who knows? I've already told you guys I started doing a deep dive on Nebius. Uh I do want it below 100. If I end up getting at 98, I will happily be assigned on those shares. But uh this one also took a breather today. Now I don't think Nebis is like the other high momentum names outside of the fact that it ran up like crazy, but it ran up like crazy with a story that was backed by actual revenue and earnings, aka that $19 billion Microsoft deal that it got. A lot of those other companies that ran up, they didn't have that associated with it. But again, at 140, did it make sense to go from 60 to 140 in two months? Probably not. And it's taken a breather. So it's still up 250% year-to- date. Just like Hood back down to 130, up from 150, still up 230% year to date. I don't think anyone can complain about that, but uh those names are a lot more attractive than they were a couple weeks ago. And it's not that crazy to see that they're taking a little bit of a uh of a breather right here.

市场展望与盘后财报速览

所以,情况就是这样。再次强调,Beyond Meat 当天上涨了 150%。哦,不是年初至今,而是当天。Beyond Meat 今年实际上是下跌的,即使今天上涨了 150%,这有点疯狂。SoFi 股价 28.76 美元,试图回到 29 美元。谷歌再次回到 250 美元。Grab 股价 5.62 美元。SMCI 当天持平。苹果上涨,一度在 265 美元创下历史新高。ELF Beauty 上涨,PayPal 上涨,Salesforce 也上涨。PayPal、Salesforce、Adobe、Lululemon,这些是一些资金从泡沫化的动量股中轮动出来的股票。我认为这并不奇怪。正如你在这里看到的,ServiceNow、Salesforce、Adobe、Intuit,所有这些在过去几周一直滞涨的股票,似乎人们在其他股票上获利了结,然后轮动到了这里,这是非常合理的。

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So, that is what you've got. Again, Beyond Meat is up on that 150% year-to- date. SoFi or or not year to date, but on the date. Beyond Me's actually down year to date with this 150% move for the year, which is kind of crazy. SoFi 2876 trying to get back up to 29. Google again at 250. Grab at 562. SMCI that's flat on the day. Apple that is up. Apple did hit all-time highs at one point at 265. ELF is green. PayPal's green. Salesforce is also green. PayPal, Salesforce, Adobe, Lululemon. And these are some of the names that you had a little bit of a rotation outside of the uh the momentum frothy names. And I don't think that's too crazy. As you can see right here, Service Now, Salesforce, Adobe, in it, all those names that have really been lagging over the past couple of weeks. Seems like people took their profits on the other names and they rotated which is very reasonable to see to see that happen.

有人问:“Amit,为什么 Galaxy 没有大涨?” Galaxy 确实涨了,一度上涨 12%,现在收盘时上涨 7%。这只股票今年也涨了很多。所以,如果你期望它上涨 20%,是的,你没有得到。但财报后上涨 8%,我想任何人都乐于看到它获得一些动力。我卖的看跌期权是周五到期的,所以如果周五股价低于 98 美元,我就会被行权。

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Amit why didn't Galaxy pump? Galaxy did pump. It was up 12% at one point and now it's going to close up 7% on the day. This stock is still up a lot for the year as well. So I mean if you expected a 20% pump, yeah, you didn't get that. But 8% after earnings, I think anyone would be happy to see it get some of that momentum. The puts are for Friday. The puts are for Friday. They expire Friday. So, if it's below 98 on Friday, I will be assigned some of those shares.

让我播放这个片段。距离市场收盘还有大约四分钟。我们来看看 Netflix 的涨跌投票。结果如何?62% 的人认为会上涨。我也会选择上涨,因为我认为它过去三个月一直持平,而且我认为任何程度的增长或指引增长,虽然我们不会得到订阅用户数,但他们在广告业务方面的任何进展,或者他们在进入假日季时展示的新内容形式,都可能是利好。

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Uh, let me pull up this clip right here. We got about four minutes until the market closes. Uh, let's take a look at the Netflix pump or dump. And what do we have? 62% of people saying it'll pump. I'm gonna go with pump because I think it's been plat past three months and I think any level of growth or guidance growth, we're not going to get subscribers, but anything in their advertising repertoire or what they've been able to show in regards to new forms of content going into the holiday season, that could be bullish.

这是 Tom Lee 对整体市场的看法,然后我们将进入收盘环节。

我们会补充……他们会回到前者,这就是为什么他们相信这波涨势还没有结束。我也属于那个阵营,Scott。我认为,我们正在进入今年关键的最后 10 周,此时不仅财报良好,而且我们还有一个将进入宽松周期的美联储。我认为,关于政府关门问题最终会有一些好消息。然后我们知道,大约 10 天前,由于 VIX 指数飙升和各种头条新闻,已经发生了一些去杠杆化。因此,我认为,这将为年底前的追涨行情创造条件。所以我认为所有这些都意味着标普 500 指数至少可以收在 7000 点。我实际上认为这是一个保守的数字,在年底前。 你仍然这么认为。

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>> We'll we'll add uh fun they fall back on the former which is why they believe that this move isn't over. I'm I'm in that camp too, Scott. I think that, you know, we're entering the sort of critical last 10 weeks of the year at a time when not only earnings are good, uh, but we have a Fed that's going to be, uh, in an easing cycle. Um, I think they're going to there's going to be some good news eventually on the shutdown. And then we know that there was already a bit of deleveraging that took place about 10 days ago because of that VIX spike and the headlines. And so there's going to be, I think, a setup for a chase into year end. So I think all of this means that the S&P can close at least at 7,000. I I actually think that's a low number um by the end of the year. >> You still do. So

好的,所以 Tom Lee 继续看涨,他的论点也继续围绕着盈利增长不会消失这一观点。顺便说一句,不仅仅是 Netflix,我刚意识到我们还有一堆其他公司。我们有 Netflix,有机器人公司 Intuitive Surgical,有巴菲特持股的 Chubb Limited,还有德州仪器和 Capital One。所以,这是观察名单。我们还有 Capital One。所以我们有五家公司。Jason 大约 25 分钟后会上线。各位,我们今天不会做一个完整的“技术星期二”,原因有二。第一,我六点必须离开,所以我们得稍微缩短一点。但第二,我们不能在财报前做大量的技术分析(TA - Technical Analysis: 通过研究历史市场数据,主要是价格和成交量,来预测未来价格走势的方法),因为很多技术分析在财报前是无关紧要的。所以我们会分析一些股票,但不会像平时那样分析 50 只。但我们会尽量在财报季开始前讨论一些设置,他大约 30 分钟后会上线。

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>> all right. So you got Tom Lee continuing to be bullish and his argument also continue is continuing around this idea that earnings growth is not going away. By the way, it's not just Netflix. I'm just realizing we got a bunch of other companies. So, we have Netflix, we have Intuitive Surgical uh robotics company, we have Chub Limited, Buffett's in that one. We have um uh Texas Instruments, and we have Capital One. Uh so, this is the watch list right here. And we also have Capital One. So, we have five companies. Jason will be on in about 25 minutes. And guys, we're not going to do a full technical Tuesday today for two reasons. Number one, uh I have to I have to leave at six o'clock, so we're going to have to cut a little bit short. But number two, uh we just can't do a ton of TA before earnings because a lot of the TA is irrelevant going into earnings. So we're going to do a bunch of stocks. We're not going to do like 50 stocks like we usually do, but uh we'll try to get some setups discussed going into the earning cycle, and he will be on in about 30 minutes.

但这些就是我们要关注的公司。Netflix 应该在收盘后立即公布财报。所以让我们看看会发生什么。距离市场收盘还有大约 30 秒。再次感谢大家来到这里。大多数人认为会上涨。我们应该最晚在 4:05 得到 Netflix 的结果,然后我们看看这将如何发展。有几个人说他们持有 Chubb 和 ISRG。好的,所以我们有一堆财报。我们正式回到了科技股财报季,各位。顺便说一句,华尔街对 Netflix 的预期是每股 6.97 美元,收入 115 亿美元。他们想要每股 6.97 美元的 EPS,119 亿美元的收入。不确定为什么特斯拉在收盘时出现红色蜡烛图,可能那里有一些新闻。我们一收盘就会报道。但我们开始了,10 月 21 日,星期二。感谢大家来到这里。下午 4 点,股市现已收盘。

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But those are the companies we've got. Netflix should be immediately after the bell. So let's see what we've got going on. Got about 30 seconds until this market closes again. Thank you everybody for being here. The majority of people say pump. The majority of people say pump. We should get Netflix results by 405 latest and then we're gonna see how this ends up playing out. A couple people say they own Chub ISRG. All right, so we got a bunch of earnings. We are officially back into tech earning season, folks. By the way, The Street wants 697 a share for Netflix. They want 11.5 billion in revenue. They want 697 a share. EPS 11.9 billion in revenue. Not sure why Tesla's getting a red candle at the close. There might be some news right there. We'll cover it as soon as we get into the close. But here we go. Tuesday, October 21st. Thank you everybody for being here. 4 p.m. The stock market is now closed.

好的,今天结束了。标普 500 指数收于 671 点。道琼斯指数收盘略低于 47000 点,几乎触及那个水平,收于 46928 点。道指和标普指数都保持了一些上涨势头。不确定是什么导致特斯拉在收盘时立即下跌,我会试着看看是否有任何头条新闻。但 Netflix 将是我们关注的重点。SoFi 收于 28.74 美元,AMD 238 美元,特斯拉 443 美元,英伟达 181 美元,Palantir 当天持平于 181.61 美元,Robinhood 下跌约 3% 至 131 美元,谷歌当天上涨 2.36%,Grab 下跌约 1%。亚马逊收盘不错,高于 222 美元,上涨 2.58%。Salesforce 上涨 4%。Meta 相对平稳。PayPal 上涨 1.3%。苹果创下历史新高。顺便说一句,比特币我们确实达到了 11.4 万美元,然后回落到 11.1 万美元,但很高兴看到比特币上涨 3-4% 而黄金下跌 4-5%。也许那里发生了一些轮动。以太坊也达到了 4000 美元。在我们进入收盘时,BMR 是否收于 52 美元?BMR 收于 51.89 美元。

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All right, we are done for the day. S&P 500 at 671. The Dow Jones closed just below 47,000. Almost hit that 47,000 level, but 46,928. Not too bad for the Dow Jones and the S&P maintaining some of this momentum. Not sure what sent Tesla down immediately as soon as we got into the close. I'll try to see if there's any headline. Um, but Netflix is going to be the one that we look for. SoFi ended at 2874, AMD 238, Tesla 443, Nvidia 181, Pounder flat on the day at 18161, Robin Hood down about 3% at 131, Google at 2.36% down on the day, Grab was down about 1%. Amazon nice close above 222, 2.58%. Salesforce up 4%. Meta was relatively flat. PayPal was up 1.3. Apple hit new all-time highs. Bitcoin, by the way, we did get to 114, came back to 111, but it's nice to see Bitcoin gain 3 4% and gold lose four or five percent. Maybe a little bit of a rotation that's happening right there. Ethereum at 4,000 as well. Uh, as we get into this market close, BMR, did we get a 52 close? 51.89 on BMR.

Netflix财报详解:意外失利与巴西税务风波

好的,Netflix。让我们看看我们有什么。哦,它在下跌。它在下跌。那是一根红色蜡烛图。我们下跌了 2.67%。我马上给你们数字。让我把这个调出来。让我们看看 Netflix 的情况。好的,所以那些说下跌的人到目前为止是正确的。我还没有拿到数字。还没有人有数字。让我看看他们的网站上有没有。通常 Netflix 在立即发布方面做得很好。我们也不会看 Netflix 的电话会议,我现在就说清楚。我们不看 Netflix 的电话会议。如果你们想看,他们会在他们的 YouTube 频道上进行,但我们只会浏览财报,然后继续。

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All right, Netflix. Let's see what we've got. Oh, it's dumping. It's dumping. That's a red candle. That is a red candle. We are down 2.67%. 2.67%. I will get you guys the numbers in just one second. Let me pull this up. Um, let's see what we have on Netflix. All right, so those who said dump so far are correct based on what we're looking at here. Uh, don't have it yet. No one has the numbers. Let me see if their website has it. Usually Netflix is really good about posting it immediately. Uh, we are also not going to be watching the Netflix call. Let me just say that right now. We're not watching the Netflix call. If you guys want to watch it, they do it on their YouTube channel, but we are just going to be going through the earnings and then we'll keep going from there.

好的,我想我们有他们的致股东信了。酷。我们拿到了。但我还没有顶线数据。让我看看能不能拿到这些顶线数据。哦,有了。好的。第三季度收入 115 亿美元,预期 115.2 亿美元。他们在收入上未达标。EPS 呢?这是真的吗?5.87 美元对 6.94 美元。天哪,这是一个严重的失误。这不是一个简单的失误。等等。Netflix。是的,他们未达标 16%。5.87 美元对 5.97 美元。收入基本符合预期。哇,我没想到他们会失误,兄弟。我真的没想到他们会失误。EPS 同比增长 9%。收入同比增长 17%。他们为什么会失误得这么严重?下跌 7%。哦天哪。

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Okay, I think we have their letter to shareholders. Cool. We got it. I don't have the topline numbers, though. Let me see if I can get these topline numbers. Oh, here we go. All right. 3Q revenue 11.5 versus 11.52. They missed on revenue. Uh EPS. Is that true? 587 versus 694. Dude, that's a that's a bad miss. That's not a simple miss. Hold on. Netflix. Yeah, they missed by 16%. 587 versus 597. Revenue came in relatively in line. Wow, I didn't expect them to miss, bro. I did not expect them to miss. EPS is up 9% year-over-year. Revenue is up 17%. Why did they miss that bad? 7% down. Oh boy.

哦,那太难看了。1151 美元。下跌了 80 美元。1151 美元。是因为埃隆吗?这可能是因为埃隆吗?也许他们在内容上花了太多钱。也许吧。天哪,为什么 Netflix 不是一家会在财报上失误的公司,各位。如果他们失误,通常是 1% 或 2%,也许有一些会计上的事情,它不应该失误 17%。这很奇怪。但正如你所看到的,股票受到了冲击。也许这对人们来说是一个进场的机会。在 1150 美元有一点反弹,回到 1160 美元,但即时反应仍然很难看。

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Oh, that's ugly. 1151. It's down 80 bucks. 1151. It's because of Elon. Is this because of Elon? Oh, this might be because of Elon. Maybe they spend too much on content. Maybe. Dude, why the Netflix is not a company that misses on earnings, guys. If they miss, it's like a one or two percent and maybe there's some accounting thing that they like it's not it's not supposed to miss by 17%. That is weird. But as you can see right there, the stock's getting hit. Maybe this ends up being an opportunity for people that come in. You got a little bit of a bounce on 1150 back to 1160, but still the immediate reaction is ugly.

让我看看其他一些公司,然后我们再深入了解数字。Intuitive Surgical,他们是绿色的。看,那里有一根漂亮的绿色蜡烛图,上涨了 2%。Chubb 也上涨了一点。德州仪器也下跌了约 2%。Capital One 在盘后也上涨了一点。Netflix 是真正受到重创的。哇。没想到。真的没想到。

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Uh, let me go to some of the other companies and then we'll get into the numbers. So, Intuitive Surgical, they are green. Look at that. You got a nice green candle right there, 2%. Chubs is up a little bit. Texas Instruments is also down by about 2%. And Capital One, that's up just a little after hours. Netflix is the real one that's getting hit pretty bad. Wow. Did not expect that. Did not expect that one.

好的,这是他们的股东信。让我们读一读,看看他们说了什么。“第三季度收入增长 17%,与我们的预测一致。28% 的营业利润率低于我们 31.5% 的指引,这是由于一项与巴西税务当局正在进行的纠纷相关的费用,该费用未在我们的预测中。” 看看 Netflix,把责任推给巴西人。把责任推给巴西人。“用户参与度保持健康。我们在美国和英国创下了有史以来最高的季度观看份额,分别增长了 15% 和 22%。” 然后他们谈到了卡内洛和克劳福德的比赛,《星期三》,《阿呆闯学府》。这个《K-pop 恶魔猎人》显然是他们第三季度最火爆的内容。我甚至不知道《K-pop 恶魔猎人》是什么,但它成了他们故事的重要组成部分。收入 115 亿美元。营业收入 32 亿美元。利润率,看那个。环比下降 6%。这就是为什么净利润受到如此严重打击的原因。25 亿美元,而上一季度是 31 亿美元。然后稀释后每股收益 5.87 美元,而上一季度是 6.90 美元。

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All right, here's their shareholder letter. Let's read through a little bit and see what they say. Revenue in Q3 grew 17% in line with our forecast. Operating margin of 28% was below our guidance of 31.5% due to an expense related to an ongoing dispute with Brazilian tax authorities that was not in our forecast. Look at Netflix blaming the Brazilians. Blaming the Brazilians. Engagement remains healthy. We hit our highest quarterly view share ever in the US and the UK, which has grown 15% and 22%. Then they talk about Canelo and Crawford Wednesday. Uh, Happy Gilmore. This K-pop Demon Hunters apparently was the biggest thing in Q3 for them. I don't even know what K-pop Demon Hunters is, but that became a big part of their story. 11.5 billion in revenue. Operating income 3.2 billion. Margin, look at that. Down 6% quarter over-arter. That's why the freaking uh net income got hit as bad. 2.5 versus 3.1 last quarter. Uh, and then diluted EPS 587 versus 690.

有大规模的取消订阅吗?但很多取消也发生在 10 月份,对吧?那是在第四季度。所以也许整个“觉醒文化”抗议活动可能是在 9 月底开始的。如果是这样,那可能会影响到他们,但也许更多的是在 10 月份。好的。下个季度的指引。我们有什么?这里有任何指引吗?他们不提供订阅用户指引。我不知道他们是否提供常规的指引。让我看看我们是否能得到一些其他的报道。关于 Netflix,但这些是我们现在拥有的一些核心结果。

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the major cancellations, but a lot of the cancellations also happened in October, right? Which is in Q4. So maybe that whole woke uh protest maybe that started near the end of September. If it did, then that could have potentially affected them, but maybe it was more so in October. Um, okay. Guidance for next quarter. What do we have? Do we have any guidance here? They don't give subscriber guidance. I don't know if they give actual regular guidance. Let's see if we can get some other coverage. on Netflix, but these are some of the core results that we have right now.

是的,没错。收入与预期基本一致,为 115.1 亿美元,但盈利却是一个巨大的失误。公司报告的每股收益为 5.87 美元,而预期为 6.97 美元。公司对此解释说,我们的营业利润率为 28.2%,而华尔街的普遍预期是 31.7%,并表示这低于 31.5% 的指引,是由于一项与巴西税务当局正在进行的纠纷相关的费用,该费用未在我们的预测中。所以他们将低于预期的营业利润率归因于那个巴西税务问题。然后还有一个小提示。公司对第四季度收入的指引高于预期,每股收益比华尔街的普遍预期高出一分钱。我会带来更多信息。回到你那里。 好的,Julia Boorstin,谢谢。股价下跌了 6%。

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>> Uh, yeah, that's right. Revenues right in line with expectations at 11.51 billion, but earnings a big miss. The company reporting five $587 in in earnings in EPS. The estimate was for $6.97. The company explaining this saying that our operating margin of 28.2% 2% was versus the 31.7% uh street account estimate saying that was below the guidance of 31 a.5% due to an expense related to an ongoing dispute with Brazilian tax authorities that was not in our forecast. So explaining that lower than anticipated operating margin as a result of that Brazilian tax issue. Um, and then one just little hint here. The company does guide to Q4 revenues ahead of estimates and EPS a penny ahead of the street account estimate. I'll be back with more. Back over to you. >> All right, Julia Borston, thanks. Shares are down six.

其他公司财报盘点

好的,所以 Netflix,我们还没有任何关于第四季度的未来指引,但那些营业利润率受到了相当大的打击。Netflix 仍然下跌 5%。德州仪器,这只股票也受到了冲击。Capital One 还好。Intuitive Surgical,那只股票得到了很大的提振。盘后上涨了 9%,正如你在这里看到的。所以看起来那里的财报相当不错。让我快速拿到那些数字。还有一些其他股票也受到了冲击。ASTS,为什么下跌 5%?他们稀释股份了吗?盘中已经下跌了 5%。所以这是 ASTS 的 11% 跌幅。那里可能有一些稀释。可能还有别的事情。美泰,为什么美泰下跌 20%?天哪,盘后这里发生了什么?它下跌了 14%,不是 20%。到底发生了什么?

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>> Okay, so Netflix, we don't have any other future guidance for Q4 yet, but those operating margins got hit pretty bad. Netflix still down 5%. Texas Instruments, this one's getting hit as well. Capital One's okay. Intuitive Surgical, that one's getting a big boost. That one after hours is up 9% as you can see right there. So, looks like earnings are pretty good there. Let me get those numbers real quick. And there's some other stocks that are getting hit. ESTs, why is that down 5%. Did they dilute? They were already down 5% intraday. So, this is an 11% move on as uh there might be some dilution there. There might be something else. Mattel, why is Mattel down 20%. Bro, what is going on after hours here? Uh, it is down 14%, not 20%. What the hell is going on? What is going on?

Intuitive Surgical,他们确实有财报。比预期好得多。让我把那些调出来。但其余的都受到了冲击。所以,Capital One,他们超出了 36%。5.95 美元对 4.36 美元。他们在收入上超出了 2%。EPS 同比增长 32%。收入同比增长 53%。所以,Capital One 表现不差。Intuitive Surgical 在 EPS 上超出了 21%。不错。2.40 美元对 1.99 美元。收入超出了 4%。收入增长 23%。EPS 增长 30%。他们像一家科技公司一样增长,尽管他们不一定是一家科技公司,更多的是在机器人领域,但其中涉及了很多技术。那家公司公布了一些好数字。所以 ISRG 现在上涨 12%,Netflix 仍然下跌 5%。Chubb 持平。德州仪器下跌。美泰和 ASTS。那些都受到了冲击。我会试着看看 ASTS 发生了什么,但我现在看不到。

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Intuitive Surgical, they do have their earnings. That was way better than expected. Let me pull those up. But the rest is getting hit. So, Capital One, they beat by 36%. 595 versus 436. They beat on revenue by 2%. EPS is up 32% year-over-year. And revenue is up 53% year-over-year. So, Capital One not doing too bad. Intuitive Surge beat by 21% on EPS. Not bad. 240 versus 199. Uh revenue beat by 4%. Revenue is up 23%. EPS is up 30%. They're growing like a tech company even though they're not necessarily a tech company. More in robotics, but there is a lot of tech involved in that. And that one is putting up some good numbers. So ISRG up now 12%, Netflix still down five. Chubs is flat. Texas Instruments that's down. Mattel and ESTS. Those are getting hit. Um, I'll try to see what's going on with AS, but I don't see it right now.

天哪,大型科技公司财报季的开局真难看。这不是你想看到的。不是 Netflix 的失误。当然,我不知道每家大型科技公司是否都必须处理巴西税务当局的问题,但仍然。ASTS 宣布回购 5000 万美元的可转换优先票据。就是这个。这就能解释了。这就能解释了。当然,我不知道,我的意思是,看,股票涨到了 100 美元。它之前是 36 美元。我的意思是,它可能早就该喘口气了。只是你现在得到了一些催化剂,历史上在任何股票中,当你试图做这样的事情,尤其是在盘后,它往往会下跌。这就是你在 ASTS 上看到的。

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Dude, ugly way to start off big tech earnings. That's not what you want to see. Not a miss by Netflix. Now, granted, I don't know if every big tech company is going to have to deal with Brazilian tax authorities, but still. ESTs announces repurchase of 50 million of convertible senior notes. There it is. That'll do it. That will do it. Now, granted, I don't know if I mean, look, the stock ran up to 100. I mean, it was at 36. I mean, like, it's probably was due for a breather. It's just you're getting it with some catalyst that historically in any stock when you try to do something like this, especially after hours, it tends to dump. And that's what you're getting on AS.

现在的问题是,对于像 ASTS 这样的股票,抄底者在哪里?对于所有这些现在正在失去动力的高动量股票,抄底者在哪里?很多时候,抄底者会离开,因为他们害怕,因为他们不想被套牢。所以,这就是你在很多其他股票上看到的有点棘手的地方。

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Now, here's the question, right? Where are the dip buyers for an AS? Where are the dip buyers for all these high momentum names that are now losing their momentum? A lot of times, the dip buyers leave because they're scared because they don't want to be stuck bag holding. And so, this is where it gets a little dicey on a lot of other names that you see.

好的,Netflix 表示:“提醒一下,我们提供的指引是我们报告时的实际内部预测。在 2025 年第四季度。” 就是这个。我们预计收入增长 17%,由会员、定价和广告收入的增长驱动。我们预计营业利润率为 23.9%。这比去年同期要好,但比上一季度要糟糕得多。第四季度下降了 5%。再次强调,这比 2024 年第四季度要好,这是华尔街关心的。但我的天哪,对于 Netflix 进入第四季度来说,这不是令人兴奋的财报。让我说,这不是进入第四季度的令人兴奋的指引。一点也不令人兴奋。而且,根据他们也在谈论的巴西外汇问题,这个数字还要再低一点。

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Okay, so Netflix says, "As a reminder, the guidance we provide is our actual internal forecast at the time we report in Q425." Here it is. We expect revenue growth of 17% driven by growth in members pricing and ad revenue. We project an op what 23.9% operating margins. That's better year-over-year, but that's horrible quarter over quarter. That is a 5% decline in Q4. Now, again, it's better than Q4 2024, which is what the street cares about. But my goodness, that is that's not exciting earnings for a Netflix going into Q4. Let me say it's not exciting guidance going into a Q4. Not exciting guidance at all. Um, and that is lower a little bit more based on this Brazilian FX stuff that they're also talking about.

好的,这就是你在 Netflix 上看到的情况。有人说:“Amit,他们不能再对消费者提高订阅费了。这就是为什么情况糟糕。” 看,这是一个很好的观点。我的意思是,这显然是一家消费者驱动的公司。股票今年迄今仍上涨 40%。现在,随着 5% 的下跌,它上涨了 35%。但如果人们不愿意支付那么多,也许这也是为什么今天早上有传言说 Netflix 可能考虑收购华纳兄弟,因为他们需要更多内容来吸引人们订阅,而华纳兄弟因为 Netflix 或康卡斯特可能考虑收购他们的消息上涨了 13%。标普 500 指数因为 Netflix 的财报下跌了一点。Beyond Meat 在盘后推高到 4 美元,而 Netflix 的市值却蒸发了 300 亿美元。看到这一幕真是令人难以置信。这就是你在一些大型科技公司财报季开始时看到的更广泛的周期。看起来 ISRG 是表现最好的。Intuitive Surgical 盘后达到 520 美元。Netflix 是受到冲击的那个。

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All right, that's what you got on Netflix. Admit they can't raise their subscriptions anymore on the consumer. That's why it's bad. Look, that's a good point. I mean, this is a consumer-driven company, obviously. Uh, stock is still up 40% year to date. Now, it's up, you know, 35% with a 5% drop. But if people are not willing to pay as much, maybe that's also why the rumors came out this morning about Netflix potentially thinking of buying out Warner Brothers because they need more content to get people to subscribe and Warner Brothers up 13% on that news that Netflix or Comcast might be thinking of buying them. S&P down a little bit on this Netflix earnings. Beyond Meat in the after hours is pushing $4 while Netflix is dropping 30 billion in market cap. Quite incredible to see. And this is what you're seeing in terms of the broader cycle for some of these big tech earnings that are starting out. Looks like ISRG was the best one. Intuitive surgical 520 after hours. Netflix the one taking a bit of a hit.

分析师解读:Netflix的长期增长前景

我认为两者兼而有之。我的意思是,我们肯定在小型投资者身上看到了这一点。但我不想把活跃交易者严格归类为散户。我们看到他们各种各样,从大到小。但他们只是在跳入市场。我认为我们在开盘时看到的是他们对来自小型交易者的订单流的反应,这些交易者在夜间为开盘下达订单。但我认为很多交易者正在反应的另一个钟声是闹钟,因为我们经常看到期货在东部时间早上 6 点到 7 点之间有所上涨。 好的,他们在谈论交易而不是 Netflix。但我认为他们在谈论 CBOE 可能将期权交易窗口在早上延长 2 小时,下午延长 15 分钟的话题。我想这将允许更多的人在一天早些时候交易像 Netflix 这样的东西。但天哪,这里仍然受到冲击。

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>> Talk with you. I think it's it's some of each. I mean, I think we see it with with smaller investors certainly. Um, but I, you know, I I don't like to classify active traders as strictly retail. We're seeing them of all stripes from large to small. Uh, but they are just sort of jumping in. I I think you know the the thing that we see at the opening bell is just is the way they're essentially reacting to the order flow that does come in from smaller traders who are putting in uh their orders overnight for the open. But u you know another bell that I think a lot of traders are reacting to is the alarm clock because we often see futures uh taking a bit of a lift higher somewhere between 6 and 7 a.m. Eastern time. And >> okay, they're talking about trading versus Netflix. Uh, but I think they're talking about that topic with the CBOE potentially increasing the uh the options trading window by 2 hours in the morning and 15 minutes in the afternoon. Um, and I guess that'll allow more people to trade things like Netflix early on in the day. But goodness, still getting hit right here.

这里还有德州仪器的消息。顺便问一下,Hims 怎么样了?我们没看那个。Hims 盘后。哦天哪,它跌破了 50 美元。Hims 跌破了 50 美元,收于 49.15 美元。这是另一只势头很足的股票,现在也失去了一些势头。

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Here are the Texas Instruments as well. Where is HMS by the way? We didn't look at that. Hims after hours. Oh boy, it lost 50. Hims lost 50. Closed right below 50. 4915. This is another name had a lot of momentum and that one's losing a bit of it as well.

我们看到了一份喜忧参半的报告,每股收益为 1.48 美元,比华尔街的预期低了一分钱。收入为 47.4 亿美元,超出预期。这是 7% 的环比增长。公司在新闻稿中表示,他们看到所有市场都在增长,所以这也包括汽车市场。但你看到股价下跌了近 5%。为什么?因为指引。第四季度每股收益指引偏低,范围很大,从 1.13 美元到 1.49 美元,所以他们真的是在对冲所有赌注,范围很大,而且低于预期。第四季度收入指引也是一个范围,大部分低于分析师的预期,所以这也加剧了股价的下跌。

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>> We are seeing a mixed report EPS of a$148. So that's a penny light of what the street anticipated. Revenues was a beat $4.74 billion. Uh that was 7% sequential growth. The company and their press release saying they're seeing growth across all markets. So that would include auto. But you're seeing shares down almost 5%. Why guidance? Q4 EPS guidance uh came in light huge range $1.113 to a$149 so really you know hedging all bets over there big range over there and that's less than expected with Q4 revenue guidance also a range that was mostly below what analysts were expecting and so that's adding to the the share drop guys

好的,德州仪器下跌,Netflix 下跌,ISRG 上涨。各位,我们有关于 DraftKings 的突发新闻,他们刚刚收购了一家预测市场公司。DraftKings 上涨 4%。这些家伙收购了 Railbird。我以前从未听说过 Railbird,但这是一个与 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 竞争的预测平台。我不知道,兄弟。我知道股票在这里上涨,但 DraftKings 不得不收购一家预测市场公司来竞争,这表明在博彩生态系统中,有多少市场份额正在离开像 DraftKings 这样的传统公司,流向 Robinhood、Kalshi 或 Polymarket。我的意思是,这次收购对我来说不是最乐观的。这对公司来说是好事,因为他们必须竞争,但这也意味着他们承认,嘿,我们需要一些帮助,因为我们正在失去很多下注的人到其他平台。不过,DraftKings 盘后上涨了 5%。

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>> all right Texas Instruments down Netflix down ISRG up folks we got some breaking news on DraftKings they just acquired a prediction markets company DraftKings up 4% % these guys acquired um Railbird. I have never heard of Railbird before, but that is a predictions platform competing with KHI and Poly Market. I don't know, bro. So, I know the stock's up here, but the fact that DraftKings has to acquire a predictions market company to compete, I mean, it's going to show how or it is at least emblematic of how much of the market share in the betting ecosystem is leaving a traditional company like DraftKings and is going to a Robin Hood, a Kali or a Poly Market. I mean, like this acquisition is not the most bullish to me. It is good for the company because they have to compete, but it also it's them admitting, hey, we need some help because we're losing a lot of the people that bet to other platforms. DraftKings, though, is up 5% after hours.

标普 500 指数盘后仍然下跌了一点,基于 Netflix 的数据。Netflix 在这里是 1179 美元。好的,所以有些人在 1150 美元水平附近介入。黄金盘后仍然下跌 5%,继续受到冲击。Netflix 是受到冲击的那个。为什么特斯拉下跌 1%?我看不出有什么理由。ASTS 在这次发行中被摧毁了。不幸的是,各位,ASTS 哇,在当天已经下跌 5% 之后又下跌了 12%。所以就是这样。ASTS 72.40 美元,然后 HIMS 低于 50 美元。AMD 下跌 1%,Grab 下跌 1%,Reddit 上涨 1%,然后亚马逊上涨 2.4%。

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S&P 500 right there 670.79 that is still down a bit after hours uh based on this Netflix number Netflix right here 1179 all right so some people are stepping in around that 1150 level gold still down 5% after hours continuing to get hit and Netflix is the one taking hit why is Tesla down 1% I don't see a reason for that as getting demolished on this offering unfortunately guys as wow 12% down after it was already down 5% during the day. So there you go. AS 7240 and then HIMS below 50. AMD down one, Grab down one, Reddit up one, and then Amazon up 2.4.

看,我不认为 Netflix 的事情是最悲观的。只是看到大型科技公司财报季以一家公司每股收益未达标 17% 开始,感觉不太好。但这也可能只是 Netflix 特有的问题。

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Now look, I don't think the Netflix thing is the most bearish. It's just not fun to see big tech earnings start off with a company missing on EPS by 17%. But it also might be specific to Netflix instead.

Chubb 似乎公布了一些不错的业绩。所以除了 Netflix 和德州仪器,其他这些公司都很强劲。Chubb 在这里,EPS 超出 22%,7.49 美元对 6.15 美元。他们在收入上超出了 15%,148 亿对 129 亿。他们在收入上超出了 10 亿美元。EPS 超出了近 1.20 美元。所以这不是一个糟糕的超出。这是一家保险公司。它不是一个波动性特别大的股票。伯克希尔哈撒韦重仓持有这只股票。Chubb 盘后上涨 2%。没有股票分割的消息。

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Chubs looked like they put up some decent results. So outside of Netflix and Texas Instruments, the rest of these companies were strong. Chub right here up 22% on EPS 749 versus 615. And they beat by 15% 14.8 versus 12.9. They beat by a billion on revenue. Beat by almost a dollar 20 on EPS. So that's not a bad beat. This is for an insurance company. It's not a super volatile stock. Birkshire is heavy in this. Chubs right there up 2% after hours. No stock split news.

好的,这是 Mattel 的报道以及发生了什么。哦,Mattel 有财报。好的,所以 Mattel 有财报。这就是为什么那只股票受到冲击。

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Here's the coverage on Mattel and what's going on with that. Oh, Mattel had earnings. Okay, so Mattel had earnings. That's why that stock was getting hit.

他们提到了,但不太清楚。我们来看看数字,John。所以股票下跌了,你可以看到是 9%。在这些令人失望的第三季度业绩公布后,它一度下跌了 22%。调整后每股收益 89 美分,低于分析师预期的 1.07 美元。收入 17.4 亿美元,也低于分析师预期的 18.3 亿美元。所以顶线和底线都未达标。它确实预计全年收入在 1% 到 3% 之间,而预期是 1.2%。还预计全年调整后每股收益在 1.54 美元到 1.66 美元之间,而预期是 1.61 美元。其调整后的第三季度毛利率为 50.2%,低于去年同期的 53.1%。这里引用一下 CEO 的话。他说:“虽然我们的美国业务在第三季度受到了零售商订购模式全行业转变的挑战,但我们业务的基本面是强劲的,自第四季度开始以来,我们产品在每个地区的消费者需求都在增长。来自美国零售商的订单已显著加速,我们的销售点正在增长。展望今年余下的时间,我们预计美泰将有一个良好的假日季节。第四季度顶线强劲增长。我们重申 2025 年全年指引,并如你所提到的,推进我们发展 IP 驱动的玩具业务和扩大我们的娱乐产品的战略,这涉及到 Netflix 与之达成的《K-pop 恶魔猎人》交易。” 基于这些数字,美泰仍然下跌。我的意思是,他们重申指引至少不是世界上最糟糕的事情。那只股票得到了一些恢复,但在业绩刚出来时受到了冲击。

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>> uh, they kind of mentioned it. Not quite. Let's get through the numbers, John. So, the stock uh, was down, you can see 9%. It was down as much as 22% on these Q3 results, which are disappointing. EPS 89 cents adjusted, lower than the$1.7 cents analysts were looking for. Revenues 1.74 billion, also lower uh, than the 1.83 billion analysts were looking for. So, miss on the top and bottom line. Uh there it does see its fullear revenues in a range of between 1 to 3% uh versus 1.2% estimates. Also sees fullear adjusted EPS in a range of $154 to $166 uh versus 161 estimated. Uh also its adjusted thirdarter gross margin was at 50.2% uh lower than the 53.1% it was a year ago. Uh a quote from the CEO here. It says, "While our US business was challenged in the third quarter by industry-wide shifts in retailer ordering patterns, the fundamentals of our business are strong with growth in consumer demand for our products across every region since the beginning of the fourth quarter. Orders from retailers in the US have accelerated significantly and our POS is growing. Looking into the balance of the year, we expect a good holiday season for Mattel. Strong topline growth in the fourth quarter. We are reiterating our full year 2025 guidance and as you mentioned advancing our strategy to grow our IP driven toy business and expand our entertainment offering which gets at the K-pop demon hunters uh deal that Netflix has with >> Mattel still down based on those numbers. I mean the fact that they're reiterating their guidance at least is not the worst in the world. That one getting a bit of recovery but it was getting hit before uh when the results just came out.

Netflix 下跌 5%,Beyond Meat 盘后又上涨了 20%,此前当天已经上涨了 170%。相当不可思议。

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Netflix down 5%, Beyond Meat After Hours up another 20% after being up 170% on the day. Pretty incredible.

看,我不认为 Netflix 的财报是熊市的信号。短期内,它只是没有达到华尔街的预期。正如 Mark Mahaney 所说,Netflix 有巨大的机会、巨大的增长催化剂、巨大的不同方式可以收购和进入体育等领域。所以,如果你是 Netflix 的长期股东,你会看着这个季度然后想,“好吧,无所谓。” 下跌 5%,谁在乎呢?但如果你是在交易这个季度,或者你认为,嘿,我认为 Netflix 肯定会超出预期,它绝对低于人们的预期,这是很多人可能没有预料到的。这就是为什么股市如此无情。我的意思是,可能没有多少人知道他们与巴西税务当局有问题,导致营业利润率下降 7%,导致他们每股收益未达标 20%。你就是不知道这些事情。因此,Netflix 在盘后受到了冲击,但从长远来看,这对他们来说不应该是世界上最糟糕的事情。

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Look, let me be clear. The Netflix earnings is not bearish. It is short-term just not up to the street expectations. As Mark Mahaney said, Netflix has massive opportunities, massive growth catalysts, massive different ways they can acquire and get into sports and all that stuff. So, if you're a long-term shareholder of Netflix, so you look at this quarter and like, "All right, whatever." down 5%, who cares? Uh, but if you were trading this quarter or if you thought, hey, you know, I think Netflix is going to definitively beat, it absolutely came below expectations for something that, you know, a lot of people probably didn't anticipate. This is why the stock market is so ruthless. I mean, there there's probably not a ton of people that knew that they were having issues with Brazilian tax authorities that led to a 7% decline in in operating margins, leading them to miss EPS by 20%. Like, you just don't know some of this stuff. And as a result, Netflix taking that hit after hours, but long-term shouldn't be the worst thing in the world for them.

...本来可以做到,我不知道,7.30 美元左右。所以你本来会有那种典型的超出预期。话虽如此,我认为华尔街会期望看到更多的收入增长。现在,这是一个订阅业务,一个非常大的订阅业务。任何一次消费者增长或活跃客户增长的激增,或留存率的降低,都很难在任何一个季度真正产生太大影响。但尽管如此,在公司可能是有史以来最强劲的内容阵容的下半年,你会期望看到更多的收入流。很可能这种情况会进入明年,我认为这实际上会发生。但我认为这才是这背后的真正背景,就是每个人都知道他们有非常强劲的内容阵容。让我们看到一些收入增长,我认为股票已经开始回升,因为人们意识到这都是一次性的,巴西的费用,如果你调整了那个,他们实际上会轻松超出盈利预期。

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>> would have done I don't know $7.30 something like that. So you would have had your kind of typical beat. Having said all that I think the street would have looking for a little bit more revenue upside. Now this is a subscription business a very large subscription business. It's hard for any one kind of spurt in consumer growth or active customer growth reduction in retention to really move the needles much in any one quarter. But still in what is the really the strongest content slate the company's probably ever had in the back half this year. you would expect just a little bit more kind of revenue flow through. It may well be that that happens going into next year and which I think is actually what's going to happen. But but that I think that's the real context behind this which is everybody knew they had a really strong content slate. Let's show a little bit of revenue up revenue upside and I think the stocks already starting to come back uh uh up because people realize this is all one timeish that the Brazilian charge and they actually would have beat uh earnings handly if you'd adjusted for that.

与此同时,我们正在进入一个 Netflix 不再报告订阅用户增长的时期。这是否会给股票带来更多波动性,也许更容易受到坏消息的影响,即使是一次性的,因为缺乏投资者可能习惯的信号? 好的。好的。嗯,首先,我没打算接受那个七的引用,但谢谢你。其次,我实际上认为不披露订阅用户数可能会减少波动性。我就是这么认为的。就像一个巨大的订阅业务,它的订阅用户数超出或未达到预期,你知道,几十万,这远低于一个百分点,而股票的波动会对那个数字做出非常激进的反应。所以我认为不再披露订阅用户数实际上会减少波动性。不过我认为他们应该披露订阅用户数。别误会,我要说清楚。但我不认为减少披露可能会在某种程度上减少波动性。

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>> At the same time, this is a period that we're moving into where Netflix is not reporting subscriber growth. Is there more volatility in the stock and perhaps more exposure to bad news, even if it's a one-off, because of that lack of signal that investors might be used to? >> Okay. Okay. Well, one, I wasn't planning I wasn't intending to accept seven reference, but thank you. It's >> and then uh and then secondly, um uh I actually think it's probably less volatile not disclosing subs. I just think it is. And I just, you know, like a massive subscription business that beats its subs or misses its subs by, you know, u you know, a couple hundred thousand, like it's less than a well under a percent and the VOVA stock would really aggressively react to that number. So, I think it actually reduces volatility to no longer disclose subs. I think they should disclose subs though. Don't be, you know, I'm going to be clear about that. But but I don't think it's I I think reducing it probably does to some level reduce volatility.

现在,我们需要在这次电话会议上听到的是,John,让我们谈谈华纳。如果 Netflix 真的为此努力,我会感到惊讶,但让我们谈谈,我确定他们不会直接谈论,但让我们谈谈。然后让我们谈谈现场活动,让我们谈谈广告和参与度。我们希望在这次电话会议上关注的三个领域。 是的,你把我的话都说出来了,Mark,那就是并购。Netflix 是否可能作为买家进入市场?无论是华纳兄弟探索公司还是其他公司。 我不这么认为。但我认为他们是作为竞标者进入市场的。关于他们竞标欧洲足球联赛版权的报道,我认为那是下一个增长点。我认为 Netflix 有两个主要的新增长点。一个是增加广告收入,当他们有那个 Airbnb 交易时,你知道,在录音机里,你让全球前 20 的品牌广告商之一在 Netflix 上做广告,更多的就会来。第二个是在网站上获得更多的现场活动和体育内容。看,Netflix 在北美和其他市场非常受欢迎,70% 的人口什么的,但你加入很多受欢迎的现场体育赛事,这个比例会上升到 80-85%。我认为这是一个真正合法的增长点,我认为每年他们得到越来越多的现金,他们得到越来越多的火力去经济地竞标那些体育版权。所以我认为投资者希望看到一些这样的交易达成。

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>> Now, what we're going to need to hear, John, on this call is let's talk about Warner. I I don't think I'd be surprised if Netflix really made a push for this, but let's let's talk about I'm sure they won't talk about directly, but let's let's talk about it. And then let's talk about live events and let's talk about advertising and engagement. Three areas we want to focus on this call. >> Yeah, you took the words right out of my mouth, Mark, and that is M&A. Is Netflix in the market as a buyer potentially? whether it is Warner Brothers Discovery or something else. >> I don't think so. But I think they're in the market as a bidder. Um, you know, the the the reports about them bidding on UEIFA, the European League Soccer football uh rights, like I think that's the next leg of growth. I think there's two major new legs of growth for for uh for Netflix. One is ramping up that ad revenue and when they had that ABNB uh deal uh you know in recorder like you get one of the top 20 global brand advertisers on Netflix, more are coming. The second one is getting more live events and sports content on on the site. Look at Netflix is fin you know fantastically popular in North America and in other markets 70% of the population whatever but you layer in a lot of popular live sports that'll go to 80 85%. I think it's a real legitimate leg of growth and I think every year they get more and more cash they get more and more firepower to go and and economically bid for those sports rights. So I I think investors want to see some of those deals come through.

你认为,也许这是中长期的,Netflix 和其他公司的内容支出会发生什么变化,特别是考虑到他们关于生成式 AI 和这个赋予创作者权力的想法的评论? 嗯,我认为 Netflix 的内容支出,我认为他们有一个非常成熟的、对他们有效的公式。每年都增加,但增加的幅度要小于收入的增长。你知道,每年增加十亿美元。我认为 5 年后,我们将谈论 Netflix 每年在内容上花费的 250 亿美元。我认为这是正确的策略,这也让你有更多的余地去购买不同类型的版权,也就是现场体育、现场活动。然后是 AI,看,我属于一个阵营,我不认为 AI 对 Netflix 是颠覆性的,我认为它实际上是一个巨大的胜利。我只是向人们抛出简单的经济学,因为我与很多投资者就此进行了辩论或讨论,如果你有更多的内容由 AI 创造,你有更多的 AI 内容创作者,你只是在增加试图将优秀内容变现的人的供应。你如何将优秀内容变现?你把它卖给那个开出最大支票的平台、网络,那就是 Netflix。所以我实际上认为你多样化了你的供应基础,基本的经济学。这对中间的网络,中间的视频娱乐网络更有利,那就是 Netflix。我认为这对他们来说是一个有益的趋势。

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What do you think, and maybe this is over the medium to longer term, what do you think happens to content spend at Netflix and others, especially given the comments they made about generative AI and this idea of empowering creators? >> Well, I think content spend at Netflix, I think they've got a really wellworn formula that's worked for them. Keep increasing it every year, but just increase it by less than revenue grows. And, you know, going to up it by a billion a year. I think in 5 years, we'll be talking about the 25 billion a year that uh that Netflix spends on content. I think that's the right strategy and uh and it allow also just gives you more cover with which to buy um you know different types of uh rights uh and that is you know live sports live live events and then on AI look I'm in a camp I don't think AI is disruptive to Netflix I think it's actually a huge win and I just throw simple economics by people which is because I've had this debate with a lot of investors or discussion with a lot of investors if you get more content created by AI you get more AI content creators it just you're increasing the supply of people who are trying to monetize great content. How do you monetize great content? You sell it to the platform, the network that's writing the biggest checks, and that's Netflix. So, I actually think it's you diversify your supply base, basic economics. It's better for the the network in the middle, the the video entertainment network in the middle, and that's that's Netflix. I think it's a beneficial trend for them.

市场杂谈与其他重要新闻

标普 500 指数盘后有所回升,至 671 点。Beyond Meat 达到 4.70 美元。那只股票没有放缓。那只股票没有放缓。是的,朋友。Beyond Meat 的故事对我来说太好笑了,因为我以前跟你们讲过这个故事,但你们有些人还记得。我曾和一个女孩约会,她说她想投资有道德的公司。我告诉她特斯拉,她说:“不,埃隆·马斯克是个法西斯主义者。” 我就问:“好吧,那你对有道德的公司的理解是什么?” 她说:“嗯,Beyond Meat。” 我说:“好吧,祝你好运。” 嗯,Beyond Meat,我不知道她的平均成本是多少,如果她真的投资了的话,但你知道,特斯拉在盘后肯定没有上涨 220%,但 Beyond Meat 却上涨了。

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S&P 500 recovering a little bit after hours 671, Beyond Meat 470. That one not slowing down. That one not slowing down. Yeah, dude. The Beyond Meat story is so funny for me because I' I've told you guys this story before, but some of you guys remember it right here. I I was I was on a a date with a girl and she was like, I want to invest in uh ethical companies. And I told her Tesla and she was like, "No, Elon Musk is a fascist." And I was like, "Okay, what is what is your interpretation of ethical companies?" And she was like, "Well, Beyond Meat." I was like, "All right, good luck." Well, Beyond Meat, I mean, I don't know what her average is if she ever made the investment, but you know, definitely Tesla's not up 220% after hours, but Beyond Meat is

好的,我给你们几个头条新闻,然后我们进入“技术星期二”,然后继续。首先,还记得博通说他们有一个神秘的 100 亿美元客户吗?瑞穗认为那是 Anthropic。所以瑞穗,很多人以为是 OpenAI。OpenAI 最终基本上与博通签了价值千亿美元的协议。相反,瑞穗今天出来说:“嘿,可能是 Anthropic。” 现在,Anthropic 也被曝出可能在过去九个月向 AWS 支付了 26 亿美元,同时将其 2026 年的收入预测提高了三倍。所以显然博通有钱负担得起。他们不盈利,但他们能与博通合作制造定制 ASIC 芯片,这真是令人难以置信。

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All right, let me give you guys a couple of headlines and then we will get into technical Tuesday and we'll we'll keep going from there. First of all, remember when Broadcom said we have a mystery10 billion comfort uh 10 mill$10 billion company? Uh Mazuo thinks it is anthropic. Misuho thinks it is anthropic. So Mizuo, a lot of people thought it was OpenAI. OpenAI ended up send basically signing like a hundred billion dollar deal with with Broadcom. Instead, Mizuo came out today and said, "Hey, it's probably Enthropic." Now, Enthropic was also revealed potentially to be paying $2.6 billion to AWS over the past nine months along with tripling their revenue forecast for 2026. So obviously Broadcom has the money to afford it. They are not profitable, but the fact that they are getting a bed with Broadcom to make a custom ASIC is quite incredible to see how that's playing out.

今天我认为另一个非常重要的头条新闻是,贝莱德的 ETF 已经购买了超过 30 亿美元的债券,支持 Meta 在路易斯安那州耗资 270 亿美元的大型数据中心项目。这就是扎克伯格在白宫与特朗普吹嘘的那个数据中心项目,当时特朗普问:“你花了多少钱?” 扎克伯格就报出了一堆数字。显然,这个项目 80% 由 Blue Owl 拥有,20% 由 Meta 拥有。很多这些债券都被贝莱德的 ETF 买走了。贝莱德的拉里·芬克曾谈到未来十年在数据中心领域有 4.5 万亿美元的机会。所以拉里·芬克去追逐很多建设这些数据中心的公司债券是合乎逻辑的,而 Meta 就是获得这种动力的公司之一。你今天在这里也看到了。

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Another headline that I thought was really important today, Black Rockck ETFs have bought over three billion worth of bonds backing Meta's massive 27 billion data center project in Louisiana. This was the data center project that um Zucks was bragging about with Trump in the White House when when Trump was saying, "How much are you spending?" And Zux was like throwing out all these numbers. Apparently 80% of this is owned by Blue Owl. 20% is by Meta. And a lot of these bonds have been bought up by the Black Rockck ETFs. Black Rockck, Larry Frink has talked about the $4.5 trillion opportunity over the next decade to attack data centers. So, it makes sense that Larry Frink is going after a lot of the different corporate bonds that are building out all these data centers, but Meta is one of those companies that is getting a bit of that momentum as well. And you're seeing that here today.

还有两个数据。在已经公布财报的 60 家标普 500 公司中,近 85% 的公司超出了预期。近 85% 的公司超出了预期。所以不幸的是,Netflix 将会拉低这个百分比,因为他们没有超出预期。但在已经公布财报的 60 家公司中,85% 超出预期与你在第二季度看到的增长率非常相似。所以如果这种情况持续下去,而 Netflix 只是个例,那么你应该希望能看到更多的上涨动力。

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Uh, two more stats. Of the 60 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, nearly 85% of them have beaten estimates. Nearly 85% of them have beaten estimates. So unfortunately Netflix is going to take that percentage down because they did not beat estimates. But of the 60 that have reported so far, I mean 85% beating estimates is very similar to the growth rate of uh percentage beats that you had in Q2. So if that continues and Netflix is in isolation not the best company that has done well, then you should hopefully see some more momentum.

最后一个数据给大家,中国的稀土出口环比下降了 31%,是自二月份以来的最低水平。这为什么重要呢?嗯,特朗普两周前就在谈论这个,说中国正在向不同国家发出信函,设置各种出口管制,使他们更难进口稀土金属和矿物。也许他是对的,因为 9 月份环比下降 31% 很可能意味着中国出口量不如以前。现在,出口同比增长了 13%,但在 9 月份,你看到了问题。我本以为稀土股在这样的消息出来后可能会上涨,但我认为稀土股已经涨得太多了,现在它们正在喘息。我的意思是,MP Materials 今年迄今仍上涨了 350%。

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And then final stat for everybody, China's rare earth exports dropped 31% month overmonth, the lowest since February. Now why does this matter? Well, Trump was talking about this two weeks ago that China is sending out all these letters to different countries creating all these export controls making it harder for them to import rare earth metals and minerals. And maybe he was accurate about that because for it to decline 31% month over month in September likely means that China is not exporting as much as they were before. Now the exports are up 13% year-over-year, but in September, uh this is where you've seen an issue. I would think the rare earth stocks would potentially rally when news like this comes out but I think the rare earth stocks have rallied so much that now you know they are taking a breather. I mean MP is still up 350% year to date.

再次强调,关于这些动量股最重要的一点是,它们几乎所有都上涨了两到三倍,即使在过去几周下跌了 30% 之后。就像 Iren,即使在过去一周下跌了 25%,它仍然上涨了 450%。所以理论上,这些股票可以再下跌 20-30%,今年仍然能翻倍。长期股东不能抱怨。你在一年内翻了一倍。标普指数勉强上涨了 15%。我的意思是,在击败标普指数方面你已经赢了。但显然会抱怨的是那些在它年初至今上涨 500% 时买入的人。我们必须密切关注,看这些股票是否能重新获得失去的动力。但无论如何,在它们公布财报之前,我们看不到这种动力是否能回来。很多财报我认为会帮助解决这个问题。Intuitive Surgical,他们公布了财报,这就是为什么他们上涨。ISRG 当天上涨 24%,在一个非常惊人的财报之后,这就是为什么那只股票也继续保持其动力。

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And again the most important thing to understand about what's been happening in these momentum plays is all of them almost all of them are up two to 3x literally even after this 30% decline that they've taken over the past couple of weeks. Like Iren is still up 450% even though Iran is down 25% over the past week. So these names theoretically could go down another 20 30% and still be up double for the year. And you know long-term shareholders can't complain. You got to double in a year. The S&P is barely up 15%. I mean like you've won when it comes to beating the S&P. But the people that are going to be complaining obviously are the people that bought when it was up 500% year to date. And we have to keep an eye on seeing if any of these names can regain some of the momentum that they lost. But nonetheless, until they put up the earnings, we're not gonna see if that momentum can come back. A lot of the earnings, I think, will help fix it. Intuitive Surgical, they put up the earnings, and that's why they're going green. 24% on the day for ISRG after a pretty incredible earnings, and that's why that stock continues to maintain its momentum as well.

好的,就是这样。我们将进入“技术星期二”。这一期会更精简一些,因为我必须在下午 6 点离开,而且我们也不能分析每一只股票,因为有很多股票要公布财报。所以,我们还是会尽量分析未来几周的一些主要股票。但基本上就是这样。对于那些现在要离开的人,明天特斯拉将公布财报,这将是一个重要的财报。我会直播,也会有一些嘉宾和我一起在《市场收盘》节目中。这将是“科技七巨头”财报季的正式开始。坦率地说,Netflix 没有给我们最好的数字,但希望特斯拉能给我们一些更好的,然后我们就可以开始这个财报季了。

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All right, that is what we got. We are going to move on to technical Tuesday. This one's going to be a little bit more of a condensed version because I have to be out at 6 PM, but also we can't do every single stock because we have a lot of stocks that have earnings. So, we're still going to try to get through some of the main ones coming up over the next couple weeks. Um, but that's pretty much what we got for those that are going to leave right now. Tesla tomorrow, it's going to be a big earnings. I'll be live. I'll have some guests with me on the market close. That is going to be the official official start of at least Mac 7 earnings. Netflix quite frankly didn't give us the best numbers, but hopefully Tesla can give us something better and then we can start off these earnings.

技术分析:基本原则与市场情绪

Amit: 好的,话虽如此,感谢大家来到这里。现在是“技术星期二”时间,这意味着让我们播放片头。

Jason: 怎么了?

Amit: 怎么了,伙计?星期二快乐。

Jason: 豆奶史蒂夫,嗯?

Amit: 这是升级版,还配了杯珍珠奶茶。

Jason: 你知道,我得让他知道你是豆奶。那他是什么?如果你是豆奶,他是全脂牛奶吗?

Amit: 嗯,不。我只是更纯净,没有那些多余的东西,你知道,植物基版本。

Amit: 哦,你是 Beyond Meat 牛奶。就是你了。好了。

Jason: 我们就这么定了。

Amit: 多么棒的星期二啊,兄弟。多么棒的星期二。

Jason: 我们会看到的。我们会看到的。这确实是疯狂的一天,但你知道,非常接近高点。希望看到它再推高一点。有点……你知道,进入财报季,它会变得……

Amit: 生牛奶史蒂夫。好了。好了。

Jason: 是的。

Amit: 好的。那么,让我们开始吧。

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Amit: All right, having said that, thank you everybody for being here. It is time for technical Tuesday which means let's roll the intro. [Music] >> What's up? >> What's up, man? Happy Tuesday. >> Soy milk Steve. Huh? >> It's an upgraded version with a side of bubble tea. >> You know, >> I've got to I've definitely got to let him know you are soy. What is he then? If you're soy milk, is he whole milk? >> Well, no. I'm just more purified. Less of the extra stuff, you know, plant-based version. >> Oh, you're the Beyond Meat milk. That's That's what you are. There you go. >> We're gonna roll with that. >> What a Tuesday, bro. What a Tuesday. >> We'll see. We shall see. It's a wild It's a wild day for sure, but you know, very close to the highs. Like to see it push a little bit more. It's a little uh you know, coming into earnings, it gets a raw. Oh god. >> Raw milk steep. There you go. There you go. >> Yeah. >> All right. So, let's get into it again.

Jason: 但就是这样。嗯,但无论如何,是的,我猜进入财报季,它往往会变得有点震荡,有点颠簸。所以,嗯,是的,你提到你不能交易很多东西,在我们进入任何图表之前,我可以先做个铺垫吗?

Amit: 请讲。

Jason: 当我们看某些股票和类似的东西时,技术分析很棒,你知道,作为一名技术分析师,我会第一个告诉你,基本面比技术面更重要。所以它们会取代你的图表。情绪也是如此。所以,如果我们有像特朗普推文或一些突发新闻这样的事情,它可能会在一段时间内打乱一些技术分析,因为人们从情绪角度会变得有点情绪化,而从基本面角度,技术分析只会告诉你今天的故事,但基本面会改变整个主流故事。所以,嗯,当我们看东西时,我们可以看到财报前的走势,但一旦这些财报公布,你必须稍微重置一下,然后让图表消化,然后技术分析才会再次发挥作用。

Amit: 是的,100%。100%。所以,我们今天要做的大部分技术分析,各位,是的,你必须持保留态度,因为无论你对 Netflix 做什么分析,归根结底,当他们报告一笔巴西当局的费用时,你知道,这是你无法预测的事情。

Jason: 巴西当局,税务当局,随便什么。

Amit: 我的意思是,这是他们陷入的一场不错的法律战。

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>> But there it is. Um but anyways, yeah, I I guess coming into earning season it tends to get a little choppy, a little rocky. Anyways, so um yeah, you mentioned uh you not being able to trade a lot of stuff, can I pre is it okay if I preface before we get into any charts? >> Go ahead. as we look as we look at certain tickers and things like that, technicals are great and you know as a technician I I'll be the first one to tell you that fundamentals are greater than technicals. So they will supersede your chart. Same with sentiment. So like that's you know if we have things like a a Trump tweet or some breaking news it might throw off some TA for a little bit because people get a little emotion emotional from a sentiment perspective and from a fundamental perspective TA is just going to it's just going to tell you what the story is today but fundamentals will change the story the prevailing story uh overall so um if as we look at things it we can look at them up to an earnings report, but the second these earnings reports hit, you kind of have to slightly reset and then let the charts digest and then and then technicals will come back in. >> Yeah, 100%. 100%. So, a lot of the uh TT that we're going to be doing today, guys, technical analysis, uh yeah, you got to take with a grain of salt because whatever analysis you do on Netflix, at the end of the day, when they report a Brazilian authority charge, you know, it's stuff you just can't predict. >> Brazilian authorities, >> tax authorities, whatever. >> I mean, >> it's a good little legal battle they're in.

关键个股图表分析:特斯拉、英伟达及其他

Amit: 好的,那么让我们开始吧。我想我们先从特斯拉开始,因为明天有特斯拉的财报。我们会看看这些数字如何影响图表,但我们会先过一遍一些大盘股,然后再继续。

Jason: 所以特斯拉,当然,这是我没有旧图表的股票之一。该死。所以我首先有计时器。嗯,我们已经过了熊市区域,我打算尝试一下,我有两个鼠标。好的,这样应该会更好。准备好了吗?所以,我也有计时器。所以,我打算设置五分钟,我们现在开始。所以,这是特斯拉。对我来说,这里有很多线,所以抱歉。我不必给你整个背景故事。嗯,但从 20 天线来看,我们非常接近之前的高点,大约在 450-451 美元。这个小区域是一些卖家,一些流动性,一些卖家可能被困在这个盘整区域。我会说它有点……我的意思是,它还行,但有点不稳。所以我们仍然在盘整中。我们还没有走出这个箱体。我认为 450 美元是目前这个箱体的顶部,然后随着财报的到来,我不期望它会有任何其他表现。所以我们基本上在这个 450 美元到 415 或 416 美元的箱体之间,这是这里的一个主要水平。那是我们上次在这个节目上谈到的最后一个关键点。415 美元是一个我们希望守住的主要支撑区域。所以,随着财报的临近,我不认为我们会跌破这个水平,除非是基本面发生变化,这是有可能的。如果真的发生,那么最大的担忧就是我们之前概述的这个低成交量区域,我们一直在试探这个区域。

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>> All right, so let's get started. And uh I think let's start off with, you know what, let's just start off with Tesla because we got Tesla earnings tomorrow. We'll see how those numbers affect the charts, >> but we'll get through some of the bigger names and then we'll keep going from there. >> So Tesla, of course, this is one I don't have the uh the old the old charts on. Shoot. So, I got the timer first of all. Um, we're through the bare zone and I'm going to try and do I got two mice. All right, that should be better. Ready? So, I we got the timer, too. So, I'm going to do five minutes and we're going to start now. So, this is Tesla. I for me the there's a lot of lines on here, so apologies there. I don't have to give you the whole backstory as to where we are on it. Um, but from the 20-day, so we are we are very close to the prior highs which are going to be right about here 450 451. And this little area is where seller some some liquidity some sellers might be a little trapped from this consolidation in here. I would say it's a little I mean it's it's okay but it's a little shaky. So we're still in consolidation. We're not out of this box. I think 450 is the top uh for now of this box and and then with earnings coming in. I don't expect it to do anything other than that. So we're essentially in this box between 450 and 415 or 416 which was this major level here. And that was the last that was the last kind of pivot that we talked about on uh on this show. 415 being like a major support area that we kind of wanted to hold. So that said, as we approach earnings, I don't think we're going to break this uh unless it's going to be break below 415 unless it's going to be um an earnings kind of like fundamental change, which it's possible. And if if that does happen, then the biggest concern is this kind of low volume pocket that we outlined before and we've been toying with this area here.

Amit: 总的来说,这张图在明天之前是更偏向熊市还是牛市?我知道你显然没有结果,但如果你必须买看跌期权或看涨期权,你会怎么做?

Jason: 我会做多这只股票,然后我会买一些保护性看跌期权,大概在……特斯拉在财报上的波动通常不大,因为他们报告月度交付数据。所以,它就像好市多。好市多在财报上的波动也不大,因为他们经常更新。我会关注近期可能在 390 美元区域的回调,那将是重新测试这个区域。老实说,这对特斯拉的图表来说是理想的,有一些横盘整理,然后仍然卡在这里。所以低点大概在 390 美元左右。如果我们只是上涨,你知道,我仍然有那个 600 多美元的目标,就在这里。但只是这个最近的盘整。我会重置这个,这仍然在 520 美元区域。所以,要么我看 380 美元,要么看 320 美元,从图表角度来看。我不确定特斯拉通常在财报上波动多大。

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>> in general, is the chart screaming a little bit more bearish or bullish going into tomorrow? I know you don't have the results obviously, but >> you have to buy If you have to buy puts or buy calls, what would you do for tomorrow? >> I would be long the stock and I would buy some protective puts somewhere around um Tesla doesn't tend to move a whole lot on earnings just because they because they report um monthly delivery numbers. So, it's like it's like Costco. Costco doesn't report a whole lot uh doesn't move a whole lot on earnings either because they they give a lot of updates. of frequently. Um I would be looking near-term probably in this 390 area for some kind of a pullback and that's going to be right in here to retest this zone. And and honestly that would be ideal for Tesla the chart to have some kind of sideways action and get stuck still in here. So that would be right around 390 at the low end. If we don't if we just go to the upside, you know, I do have this 600 something still, which is up here. Uh, but just this more recent consolidation. What I'll do is reset this and just get this is this is still in the 520s to the upside. So, either I'm looking at 380s or 320s from the chart perspective. I'm not sure how much Tesla typically moves on earnings.

Amit: 嗯,看起来他们已经有大约 30 美元的隐含波动,无论哪个方向。仅仅看期权链,30 美元大约是 408-415 美元,几乎就在那个 415 美元的下行水平。对特斯拉来说,这相当小。我从你这里得到的感觉是,你不认为会有一个爆炸性的走势,明天能把股价送到历史新高。

Jason: 我不认为图表告诉我明天会有爆炸性的走势。这是可能的。但当你定义爆炸性时,我就想,好吧,爆炸性是当前的轨迹,因为它现在不是做空。当前的轨迹只是到 480 美元,但那是没有……

Amit: 历史高点是 488 美元。

Jason: 对,488,就像我说的,当前的轨迹是进入这个 520 美元的区域,对特斯拉来说,这是一个不错的百分比。我猜只是你怎么交易它?你得明白,我已经从下面这里,实际上是从 300 美元这里,最近进入了这个交易。所以我只是在顺势而为。如果你在寻找新的资金做多,这不是一个好的风险回报点,这就是现在故事的重点。它非常高。它很紧凑。它看起来看涨,但我不想……你也在阻力位。所以在阻力位做多,你通常想在支撑位做多,那将是 415 美元或更低。

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>> well, so looks like they have about a $30 implied move one way or the other already. Just looking at the options chain, which is $30 is about 408 415 pretty much right at that 415 level to the downside. It's pretty small for Tesla. >> The sense I'm getting from you is you don't uh you don't you don't think there's some explosive move coming that could send the stock to all time highs tomorrow. >> There's I do not the the chart is not telling me that there's going to be an explosive move tomorrow. It's possible. But when I when you define explosive, I'm like, okay, well, explosive is the current trajectory because it's not a short right now. The current trajectory is just to like 480s, but that's with no >> alltime high is at 488. So, >> right 48 and and the like I said, the current trajectory is into this 520 area, which for Tesla, it's a it's a it's a good percentage. Um I guess it's just how do you trade that? I'm already you got to understand I'm already in this trade from down here actually sorry from like from down here 300s recently. >> Um so I'm I'm I'm just kind of like cruising along personally and if you're looking for new money long I this is not a good riskreward spot which is the moral of the story right now. It's very high. It is tight. It looks bullish, but I'm not trying to take you're at you're also at resistance. So, um taking an upside bet at resistance is you usually want to go long at support, which would be 415 or lower.

Amit: 好的,很公平。Nuvei,很想听听你对这只股票的看法。它从 140 美元回调到了 100 美元。我不知道你对它的基本面了解多少,但这在你看来有吸引力吗?它对我来说肯定看起来很有趣。

Jason: 我认为从……从最新的交易来看,那是在 61 美元。从这里到这里大约是 50%,也就是这个,它也正好在一个之前的高点。所以,关于 Nuvei,抛物线趋势,当我说抛物线时,它所在的通道已经消失了。所以就是这个。那个通道在 126 美元被打破了,它需要守住并留在这个上行通道中。那被打破了。所以当那被打破时,你得说,好吧,我们要回调了。我们回调到哪里?大约 120 美元,可能 93 美元。如果我从这里测量,从这里一直到那里,如果那是第一波走势,这个区域将正好是 50 天简单移动平均线,大约是 91 美元。我不希望看到它比那更低。所以,比如 90 美元。如果它跌破 90 美元这个水平,那就不好了。因为那样你实际上会填补整个缺口,一直到 75 美元,可能性很高。非常高的可能性。

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>> Okay, that's fair. Uh Nebius, really curious your thoughts on this one. This one's pulled back from 140 to 100. Uh I don't know how much you know about the fundamentals of this, but does this look attractive at all to you here? It it definitely looks interesting to me for sure. Um I think from from the >> we got to set the timer >> latest deal from the latest deal that was at 61. This is about 50% from here to here which is what this is and it's also like right at at a prior top. So, so that said on Nebius, the parabolic trend, when I say parabolic, the the channel that it was in is gone. So, that's this right here. That channel is just kind of like that broke at 126, needed to hold and stay in that upside channel. That's broken. And so, when that breaks, you kind of have to say, all right, well, we're going to have a pullback. Where do we pull back to? It's about 120, possibly 93. If I'm measuring from here, from here all the way to there, if that's the first move, this area is going to be just about the 50-day simple moving average, which is about 91. I don't want to see it any lower than that. So, like 90. If it loses this $90 level, that's not going to be good. Um because then you're you're actually gonna you're actually gonna fill in that whole thing all the way to 75 like high probability. Very high probability.

Amit: 如果跌到 75 美元,那将抹去微软交易后的大部分涨幅。

Jason: 没错。如果不是全部的话。是的。那会很难看。肯定会很难看。是的。即使我从……让我们看看,如果我从整个走势来看,当 Nuvei 还是……是的,75 美元会有很多汇合点,但这会很……那就像从这里下跌 25%。我的意思是,是的。所以在 90 美元,如果我看到 Nuvei 交易在 90 美元以下,我不想在 90 美元买入,我不认为那是一个好的……我不认为那是一个好的价值。要么是……或者抱歉,低于 90 美元,它会到 75 美元左右,尽可能接近 75 美元。嗯,那是因为整个趋势在那一点上被打破了。然后你正在完全回撤这个……这个东西,再次强调,如果你跌破 75 美元,到 60 美元的可能性同样高,这就是为什么我真的不想在 90 美元以下碰它,因为它取决于你的时间框架,我猜,你打算持有这个多久。

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>> if it goes to 75 that would be erasing a majority of the runup after Microsoft. Exactly. If not all of it. >> Yeah. That'd be ugly. That would be ugly for sure. >> Yeah. Even if I go, let's see if I went from this entire move when Nebius was like pre whatever. Yeah, 75 would be a lot of confluence, but that would be really that's like 25% down from here. >> I mean, yeah. So at 90, if if I'm if I see Nebius trading below 90, like I don't want to buy it at 90, I don't think that's a good I don't think that's a good value. It's either like or sorry below 90 it's it's it's going to 75s give or take as close to 75 as you can. Um, >> and and that's because the the whole trend is broken at that point. And then you're having a full retracement of this of this thing, which again, if you lose 75, the probability of getting to a a 60 number is is just as high, which is why I don't really want to mess with it below 90 because it it depends on your time frame, I guess, how long you plan on holding this.

Amit: 是的。是的。我个人认为这是一个更有吸引力的逢低买入机会,因为不像其他一些动量股,他们实际上有收入。

Jason: 不,我同意。我实际上在这里逢低买入了。嗯,我认为它可能会再低一点,因为我已经拥有了一点,所以我只是在之前加仓了。它不会像 Robinhood 那样的仓位,但这是那个 91 美元的区域,就在这里,他们上次突破的地方。所以,基本上就是这个我们非常接近测试的箱体。我们今天早上测试了。是的。所以这就是我说的。我会在这里逢低买入,字面上这里接近 100 美元,但如果我们不能很快得到反弹,我知道它可能会走低。

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>> Yeah. Yeah. And I I personally think >> value trading >> this would be a more attractive buy the dip because unlike some of the other momentum names they actually have revenue. So >> no I I I I actually agree like I actually bought the dip here. Um and I I think it could go a little bit lower because I already owned a little bit so I just averaged up before. It's not going to be like a hood position but this is that 91 area right here where they last broke out of. So, it's this it's basically this box that we're getting very close to testing essentially. We tested this morning. >> Yeah. >> And so that's that's what I'm saying. Like I'll buy the dip here literally here is close to 100, but the probability of if but if we don't get a bounce like real soon, I know that it's probably coming lower.

Amit: 好的。Oklo,你对这只股票有什么看法?它下跌了 10%。

Jason: Oklo。我的意思是,很多动力都消失了。嗯,所以你有一个……可以说是一个抛物线高点。我说抛物线。抛物线。所有这些意思就是,当我谈论图表时,它非常激烈。嗯,让我重置一下。它在……方面是相似的,好吧,你有你的……它所在的通道,昨天它正在失去这个通道。所以在 160 美元以下,当我看到这个时,我会切换到一个更小的时间框架。我现在在 4 小时图上,但我会切换到一个更小一点的。嗯,这是今天,但这是昨天。所以,如果我只是突出显示昨天的交易时段,当你在早盘创下高点,然后在收盘时接近低点,当我看到它时,这最后……它收盘在 164 美元以下之前或 164 美元以上,那有点像中心线,也是一些人之前介入并真正试图表明立场的地方。所以 164 美元实际上是一个非常重要的近期关键点。那时我就想,“好吧,这要下来了,可能会打破这个通道,至少测试 20 天线。” 嗯,但我今天在观察它,因为我……再次,今天在观察这个。我今天没有看到任何买家出现在 Oklo 上,完全没有。它只是变得越来越难看。所以我认为这里有一些疲劳。嗯,不要太疯狂。所以这个 145 美元本应该是最后的……如果你看涨,你会希望看到 Oklo 在 145 美元反弹并守住。今天早上,当它这样做时,或者当它试图这样做时……

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Okay. Uh, Oaklo, what are you thinking on this one? That took a 10% >> Oaklo. I mean, a lot of the steam just came out. Um, so you have this kind of like parabolic high, if you will. I say parabolic. Parabolic. All that means is just like really intense when I'm talking about the charts right now. Um, let me go reset. And it's it's similar in terms of like okay well you have your your channel that it had been in and yesterday it was losing this channel. So below 160 and when I looked at this I'm going to drop down to a smaller time frame. I'm on a 4 hour chart right now but I'll just drop down a little bit smaller. Um this is today but this is yesterday. So, if I'm just going to highlight yesterday's trading session, when you make the highs early and then you close towards the lows, which when I looked at it, this last where it closed below 164 before or above 164, that was kind of like the center line and where some people had stepped in previously and really kind of tried to make some kind of a stance. So 164 was actually a pretty big near-term pivot at that point. I was like, "All right, this is coming down to probably break this channel and at least test the 20-day." Um, but I was watching it today cuz I was again watching this today. I didn't see any buyers show up on Oaklo today like at all. And just it just kept getting uglier and uglier. So, I think there's some fat fatigue fatigue here. Um, and not to get crazy. So, this 145 would have been the last kind of if you were going to be bullish, you would have wanted to see Oaklo bounce at that 145 and hold. And this morning, as it was doing that, or as it was attempting to,

Amit: 你认为这是动量减弱了吗?你如何解释这种下跌的速度?就像人们今天放弃了这笔交易一样。

Jason: 这个通道很简单。这个绿色和红色,画起来很简单,我想你会看到很多人……我的意思是,它实际上大部分是自动化的。所以重点是,当你有一只股票这样做时,也许我们可以看看 Robinhood,因为它有点在通道的底部。嗯,你知道,它在……方面很直接,就像这是 Oklahoma 需要守住的趋势,今天早上被打破了。好吧。它可以回调一点,但然后你会希望看到它在这里反弹。在这一点上,任何从技术角度看的人,嗯,都有点不得不认输,因为,你知道,你会知道它会走低。而那个认输,可以这么说,只是人们触及了他们的止损点。任何……任何晚期多头,基本上都离场了。嗯,我们现在在……我们现在在另一个小点上,比如说 137 美元。我只是不认为这是一个非常强的点。然后是情绪。所以我们谈到情绪是一个大问题。我只是……像广播电视上的情绪,我只是认为至少在短期内对 Oklo 已经转变了。你知道,很多……很多议论。哦,它……它……你知道,没有收入。他们有财报要公布。他们会说什么?它涨了这么多,就你说的。嗯,是的。是的,我认为很多是那种……害怕的钱。

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Do you think this was momentum drawd down? Like what how do you explain the velocity of the move? Like people just gave up on the on the trade today. >> It's pretty like this channel is pretty simple. This green and red, it's pretty simple to draw and I think you'll see a lot of people it it I mean it's it's actually mostly automated. So the point is that when you have a stock that's that's doing this, maybe we could look at hood too cuz it's kind of towards the bottom of the channel. Um, you know, and it's and it's pretty straightforward in terms of like here's the trend that Oklahoma needed to hold and it was broken this morning. All right. Well, it can pull back a little bit, but then you'd want to see it pop right here. At this point, anybody that was looking for that from a technical perspective, um, kind of has to throw in the towel because, you know, it's you would know that it's going to go lower. And that throwing in the towel, so to speak, is just people hitting their stop loss. Any any ear any late longs uh essentially exiting stage left. Um, and we're at we're at another little point here, say like 137. I just don't think it's a very strong one. And then sentiment. So, we talked about sentiment being a big thing. I just the sentiment on like broadcast television I just think has turned on Oaklow near-term at least. You know, a lot a lot of chatter. Oh, it's it's uh you know, no revenue. They have earnings coming. What are they going to say? It's up so much to that point to your point. Um, >> yeah. Yeah, >> I think it's a lot of that kind of scared money.

Amit: 那么,让我问你这个。当技术面对一只已经没有基本面的股票变得糟糕时,根据你的经验,情况会变得非常难看,还是会如何发展?

Jason: 它会变得非常难看,就像非常难看,因为你只是……它就变成了一只动量股。嗯,所以你只是失去了动力。我现在要说的是,如果你喜欢它,你知道,你可以喜欢它。没关系。喜欢它没什么错。但是……但是这是一个……我也不建议在 Oklo 上卖出看涨期权,因为如果这个开始下跌,嗯,波动性只会增加。所以最好是……我刚用完时间。最好是做多 Oklo 的看跌期权。因为,你知道,我们不知道也许会发生什么,有一个头条新闻改变了这里的情绪,然后直接回到高点,因为这仍然……我的意思是,这是一个相当大的下跌,在过去……我的意思是,它下跌了像 30%。所以这是 30% 的下跌,你技术上正在测试一个中期支撑。所以,可能……嗯,一些人会介入,试图在明天买入,既然它已经有了大的下跌,但我会对回到 160 美元的水平非常谨慎,因为在那个 160 美元的水平,空头会等着。就像,他们肯定会在这个区域的任何地方等着。

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>> So, so let me let me ask you this. When technicals, as Benny says right here, get bad on a stock that already doesn't have fundamentals, in your experience, does that get really ugly or what kind of plays out? >> It it gets really ugly like really ugly because you just you just it becomes a momentum stock. Um, so you just lose the momentum. What I would say here now is that if you like it, you know, you can like it. It's fine. There's nothing wrong with liking it. But um but it's a spot to and I and I I also wouldn't say sell calls on a Oaklo necessarily because if this starts to go down um the volatility is just going to increase. So it'd be better to be I just ran out of time. It would be better to actually be long puts on a Oaklo. Uh because also, you know, we don't know that maybe something happens and there's a headline that changes sentiment here and just goes straight back to the highs because this is still I mean this is a pretty big move to the downside what is this in the last I mean it was down like 30%. So this is 30% down and you are technically testing um a medium-term support. So, it's possible that um some people step in and try to pick at this tomorrow now that it's had a big move, but I would be very cautious back to that 160 level cuz at that 160 level, uh the bears are going to be waiting. Like, they're definitely going to be waiting anywhere up in here.

Amit: 好的。SoFi,你对它进入财报季有什么看法?另外,在你开始谈论 SoFi 之前,快速说一下,就 30 秒。你对 Beyond Meat 的看法?什么?就像盘后?你认为只是人们在 YOLO 吗?

Jason: 嗯,朋友,我认为是……嗯,就像 Wolfspeed,对吧?他们不是……是空头回补,仅此而已。

Amit: 好的。所以你认为是轧空?

Jason: 哦,不。绝对是。我的意思是,是的。是的,对我来说肯定是轧空。嗯,我可以看到这个。哦,你进来了。所以,你不知道他们会报告什么,但这是一个……这个轧空在 4.18 美元很多。让我看看盘后。哦,我们到了。

Amit: 10 分钟前在 4.70 美元。

Jason: 是的,抱歉。所以,你真正做的是你只是……我刚才打开了我的盘后。你看着这个最后的相对高点,看看我们会到哪里。嗯,我刚才做的,我猜我们现在在做 Beyond Meat。嗯,我刚才做的是……好的,没关系。我只是抓住了这个……这看起来像一个盘后长上影线。所以,我要再放大一次来……来完善这个,这样我才能真正得到这个 4.86 美元。它到 4.86 美元了吗?不,盘后没有。好的。所以有一点被套的流动性,最高到 4.86 美元,然后……所以从这个角度,一个轧空的角度,如果你得到……那个顶部是 5.24 美元。疯狂。我甚至没看那个,但那看起来……到一分钱 4.80 美元,这……所以你有一个……我甚至没看。太疯狂了。嗯,所以看起来他只是填补了一个流动性缺口,低成交量缺口,就像一些被套的流动性在这里,意思是像……被套的买家,任何在绝对高点买入的人。嗯,你会很快发现他们是否还喜欢它。净值超过 5.25 美元,它可能会大幅上涨。嗯,大幅上涨会是在 6 美元区域,对吧?这将是一个大的变动。

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>> Okay. Um, SoFi, what are you thinking about this going into earnings? Also, real quick before you start on SoFi, just like 30 seconds. Your thoughts on Beyond Meat? What? Like after hours? You think it's just people yoloing? >> Uh, dude, I think it's Well, it's like uh Wolf, right? Weren't they uh It's short covering, that's all. >> Okay. So, you think it's a squeeze? Definitely. >> Oh, no. Definitely. I mean, yeah. Yeah, it's for sure a squeeze to me. Um, I can see this. Oh, you're you're coming in. So, you don't know what they're going to report, but this is a This squeezes a lot at 418. Let me go after hours. Oh, we're there. >> Was at 470 10 minutes ago. >> Yeah, sorry. So, really what you do is you just kind of like I turned my after hours on just now. you look at this last relative high and see where we're going to be. Um, what I just did, I guess we're doing beyond me right now. Um, what I just did was >> Okay, it's fine. Was I just grabbed this kind of like this looks like an after hours wick. So, and I'm going to zoom in one more time to kind of refine this so I can actually get this 486. Did it get to 486? No, not after hours. >> Okay. So, there's a little trap liquidity up to 486 and then um so from this perspective, a squeeze perspective if you get and the top of that is 524. Wild. I wasn't even looking that but that looks to like to the penny 480 which is so you have just uh I wasn't even looking. That's crazy. Um, so it looks like he just filled a liquidity pocket, low volume pocket, like some trapped liquidity up here, meaning like trapped buyers, anybody that bought at the absolute highs. And um, you're going to find out real quick if they if they like it still or not. Net net over five and a quarter, it's going probably significantly higher. Well, significantly would be in the sixes, right? Which would be a big move.

Amit: 好的。SoFi。我们怎么看?它接近 29 美元了。如果财报好的话,你认为它有可能冲到 30 美元吗?

Jason: 我会……所以每只股票,当我们经历这个过程时,你会有……我们称之为财报前上涨,而 SoFi 特别倾向于有一些非常激进的财报前上涨。是的。意思是,它会在财报前到达那里,而当财报真正发生时,那就看表现了。所以这是 10 月 28 日。那就像一周。

Amit: 字面上就是七天后。是的。

Jason: 你今天拿了这个吗?所以这是我们的图表。这就像 28.50 美元。

Amit: 我在找 26.50 美元,但昨天它跑掉了。

Jason: 哦,是的。嗯,所以如果它守住 28.50 美元以上,这是非常看涨的。所以这个……这个区域这里有点像我所说的……从这个波段高点到这个波段低点的熊市回调。我们只是……它只是被称为这个最近的高点到这个最近的低点。那是波段高点,波段低点。就是这个意思。嗯,但这个……这个我刚做的灰色框,那是一个熊市回调。嗯,如果它确实守住了那个,那就意味着熊市更有可能放弃了。所以那将是看涨的。

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>> All right. So, what are we thinking? It got close to 29. Do you see a run up potentially to 30 if it can have a good earnings? I would >> so each stock as we go to this as we go through this we you'll have uh pre what we call pre-earnings runups and uh SoFi in particular tends to have some pretty aggressive pre-earnings runups. >> Yeah. Meaning what that what that means is it's going to get there before earnings and by the time earnings actually happens well then it's a show me story. So this is October 28th. That's like a week. >> That is literally in seven days. Yep. >> Did you take this today? So this is our chart. This was like 2850. >> I was looking for 2650 but it ran away yesterday from me. >> Oh yeah. Well, so if it holds over 2850, this is pretty bullish. So this this area here is kind of like what I would call a bearish retracement from this swing high to this swing low. We just it's just called this recent high to this recent low. That's swing high, swing low. That's all that means. Um but this this kind of gray box I just made, that is the that is a bearish retracement. Um, and if it does hold over that, then that means that the bears have more likely given more likely than not given up. >> So that would be bullish.

Amit: 关于它的奇怪之处在于,银行股表现出色,所以我感觉从基本面上看,无论是降息、银行、整体顶线增长,它都会大放异彩。我只是想知道图表是否足以让它达到那个……我猜是价格发现区,就在 30 美元以上,它从未见过的地方。

Jason: 好的,让我……所以是 28.75 美元。它现在看起来很看涨,朋友。嗯,再次,同样的……同样的练习,那会带你到那个 29.79 美元,碰巧已经达到了。嗯,所以因为它已经填补了,我会说这个区域不是一个大的……它通常会是一个大的交通区,但在这种情况下我不这么认为。所以这个 33 美元,这是一个延伸。所以让我们说……基本上路径会是向上……向上然后出去。就像那样,我非常确定那会让你与之前的通道对齐,那个通道的顶部。是的。这个通道,我们一直在强调和观察这个,你觉得多久了?三周,也许三周。嗯,那都可能……那完全可能在财报前发生,这对财报来说不是一个很酷的设置,这为 SoFi 的双重超出双重滑雪设置了……嗯,嗯。

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>> The thing that's weird about it is is is that the banks crushed and so I feel like everything fundamentally, whether it's rate cuts, banks, overall topline growth, it's going to smash. I just wonder if the charts are enough for it to get to that I guess price discovery zone right above 30 bucks where it's never seen. >> All right, so let me just So it's 2875. It it looks pretty bullish right now, dude. Um and again, same kind of exercise that would take you to that 20 2979 which happens to have already hit. Um, so because of that already filling, I would say that this area isn't really a big uh it would normally be a big traffic zone, but I don't think it is in this case. So this 33, this is an extension. So let's say essentially the pathing would be up through up and out. like that, which I'm pretty sure is going to line you up anyways with the prior channel, top of that channel. Yep. This channel, which we'd been kind of highlighting and watching this for what what would you say now? 3 weeks, maybe three weeks. Um, and that could all happen that can legitimately happen before earnings, which is a not a cool setup for earnings, which set which sets up SoFi for the double beat double ski. Um,

Amit: 嗯,这在一月份发生过。它涨到了 8.50 美元。

Jason: 是的。

Amit: 从大概 15.70 美元,然后在财报上跌到了 13 美元。

Jason: 是的。所以这就是我说的。所以,这在实际财报电话会议之前都是有效的。一旦财报电话会议发生,所有的赌注都无效了。这就是我的观点。嗯,就像,它能下来吗?当然。它真的可以……瞬间。嗯,或者至少回到它开始的地方,这正是 Netflix 所做的。Netflix 在财报前有很好的技术分析。它做了财报前……我们可以看看 Netflix 吗?

Amit: 是的,我们来看看 Netflix。

Jason: 只是为了让人们知道它是什么样子,如果他们不熟悉的话。他们可能熟悉。

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>> well, this this happened in January. It pumped up to$,850. >> Yeah. >> From like from like what 1570 and then it dumped to 13 on earnings. >> Yeah. So, that's what I'm saying. So, this can be valid up to the actual earnings call. The second that the earnings call happens, all bets are off. That's my point. Um, and and like, can it come down here? For sure. It really can instantly. Uh, or at least back to where it where it started, which is exactly what Netflix kind of done. Netflix had good TA coming into earnings. It did did the pre- earning. Can we look at Netflix? >> Yeah, let's do Netflix >> just to just so that people know what it looks like if they're not familiar. They might be familiar

Amit: 快速说一下,在你做 Netflix 之前。你可以暂停计时器。所以,各位,三件事。首先,请在 X 上关注 Jason。他每周二免费为我们做这个。所以非常非常感谢。你可以在那里关注他。其次,感谢 Knife 的 200 美元超级留言。感谢你。如果你有想看的股票,请告诉我们。但感谢那 200 美元的超级留言。然后第三个公告,Skrey 正式做空 Beyond Meat。他说我看到负的毛利率后开始了一个小空头仓位。所以就这样。

Jason: 好的,Netflix,我们有什么?所以进入财报季,我认为我的观点是,它可能看起来非常看涨。这是你进入财报季的图表,我们在财报前很久就勾勒出了这个小双底,就在这里,1139 美元。发生的是,从这里到这里的整个走势,我们称之为财报前走势。有点像你对财报的预期。从图表角度看,这是一个真实的走势,但从……方面看,这是一个虚假的走势,如果基本面改变或基本面不支持它,它就不会持续。如果它们不支持,它会回到哪里?嗯,如果它们支持,它会涨到哪里?如果它得到支持,我们知道它会进入 1400 美元区域。而 Netflix 通常是一个财报波动很大的股票。它会是这样的。你首先要处理那个 1338 美元,顺便说一句,这仍然可能发生。嗯,然后我把这个移到……现在。你得到财报,它就……字面上改变了故事。但现在,如果你看这个,如果你看这个,它基本上只是回到了它来的地方。

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>> real quick before you do Netflix. You can pause the timer real quick. So, three things guys real quick. First of all, please follow Jason on X. He is uh doing this for us for free every Tuesday. So, deeply deeply appreciate that. You can follow him there. Second of all, following Knife, thank you for the $200 super chat. Appreciate you. If you have a ticker in mind, please let us know for a TT. But thank you for that $200 super chat. And then third announcement, Skrey is short beyond meat officially. He said I started >> right there, >> right at the level. >> He said I started a tiny short after seeing negative gross margins. So there. >> All right, Netflix, what do we got? So coming into earnings and I think this was my my point was that it could all look super bullish. This is your chart coming into earnings and we had outlined um this little double bottom right here way before earnings uh 1139. And what happens is this entire move from here to here is what we would call pre-earnings move. Kind of like your anticipation of earnings. Uh it's a it's it's a real move from a chart perspective, but it's a it's a fake move in terms of like it's not going to hold if the fundamentals change or the fundamentals don't support it. And if they don't support it, where would it go back down to? Uh, and if they did, where would it go up to? If they if it did get if it was supported, well, we know that this was going to be into the 14s kind of area. And Netflix is typically a a big earnings mover. It would have been like this. You would have to deal with that 1338 first, which still, by the way, can happen. Um, and then I'll move this forward to now. you get earnings and it just literally just changes the story. But here now, if you look at this, if you look at this, it it's basically just gone back to where it came.

Jason: 关于 Netflix,我要先说一点,它是一只中盘股。它的市值是多少?5000 亿,差不多吧。我不知道。

Amit: 我想是 4300 亿。

Jason: 5300 亿。是的,也许是 4300 亿。嗯,顺便说一句,它在过去一年左右有巨大的涨幅。所以几年,从 165 美元一直到这里。所以尽管我确实喜欢 Netflix,所有这些,顺便说一句,这是一个巨大的回报,我的意思是巨大的回报。所以它能至少横盘一段时间吗?我认为你理解它来自哪里。嗯,我认为如果你不期望有一些横盘的价格走势来消化那种程度的走势,你可能有点错了,但……嗯,但它值得一些消化。我们喜欢它吗?我爱它。嗯,但所以我是从投资角度,我不会卖掉它。嗯,话虽如此,这条线,那个最后的双底是 1144 美元。让我们就定在那里。所以现在财报已经过去了,我们可以做技术分析了。就那么快。我们只需要等待电话会议。所以 1139 美元。现在发生的是,这张图并没有被明确地打破。这张图没有任何问题。它只是没有向上走,但它没有打破支撑。支撑在 1140 美元。如果因为任何原因,Netflix 这样做,那就是你所期望的。那个跌破会在 1140 美元,从那个之前的双底,它不会守住。那可能会带你……首先到 1077 美元。它不会是像这样的一条直线。它可能会更……嗯,你知道,它可能会震荡,天哪,像震荡,可能震荡震荡震荡,然后可能开始像那样恢复。所以……但即使是这个,看,当我缩小时,所有这些都是……从……这是一个从这里到这里的测量移动,那是 2025 年 4 月到 2025 年 6 月的 50%……从这个到这里的移动。这是一个……那个移动的看涨回调,就在这里。所以我……我会说那是你更好的价值。那实际上就在……它就在一千美元以下,这很有道理。然后像这样的东西,当你把它缩小时,你看着它,你就像……即使……即使它到了那里,然后即使这个横盘了一段时间而不是上涨。这对于在那种走势后看这个的人来说应该是有意义的。那肯定会在……在考虑范围内。看起来这是……是的。

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One thing I would say about Netflix to preface this is that it's a midcap stock. Med What is the market cap on this? 500 billion, something like that. I don't know. >> 430 I think. >> 530. Yeah, 430 maybe. um which has had by the way a massive run in the last uh year or so. So few years from from 165 all the way up here. So as much as I do like Netflix all of this by the way this is a huge return and I mean giant return. So can it go sideways at least for a while? I think that you understanding where it's coming from. Um I think that if you don't expect a sideways some kind of sideways price action to digest that level of a move, you might be doing a little wrong, but um but it it deserves some digestion. Do we like it? I love it. Um but so I'm from an investment, I'm not going to sell it. Um, that said, this line, that last double bottom is 11:44. Let's just make it right there. And so now that earnings have come and gone, we can do TA. It's literally that fast. We just needed to wait for the call. So 1139. What what's happening right now is this chart is not broken definitively. There's nothing wrong with this chart. It just didn't make the move to the upside, but it has not broken support. Support is at 114140. If for whatever reason uh Netflix does this, that is what you would expect. And that breakdown would be at 1140 from that prior double bottom and it would not hold. And that would probably take you one to 1077 first. It's not going to be a straight line like this. It might be more um you know it might be choppy goodness like choppy like might chop chop chop chop and then probably start to recover like that. So um but even this look when I zoom out all this is is from is a measured move from here to here that's 50% of April 2025 to June 2025 move from this to here. This is a bullish retracement of that move right in here. So I would um I would say that that is your better value. That's that's actually just under it's just under a grand which makes a lot of sense. And then something like this when you zoom that out and you look at it you're like even even if it gets there and then even if this goes sideways for a while and not up. This should make sense to somebody looking at this after that kind of a move. That would definitely be um in the cards. Looks like this is Yeah.

Amit: 好的。酷。我们到那里时会买 Netflix 吗?

Jason: 朋友,我对 Netflix 看空很久了,以至于……

Amit: 只是因为你错过了从 100 多美元的上涨。

Jason: 是的。是的,完全正确。我错过了上涨。我不会在 5 亿市值时买它。不。我宁愿买更多谷歌而不是 Netflix,一周中的任何一天。但是,嗯,我们可以做亚马逊吗?你认为这里可能会有一点突破吗?

Jason: 嗯,嗯,你知道,我曾取笑亚马逊的空头一段时间,在这个……嗯,那是什么,就在这里?哦,我甚至不知道我刚才怎么做到的。哦,新玩具。太酷了。

Amit: Trading View。有了新玩具。

Jason: 是那个训练吗?是的。

Amit: 我想是 Trading View。

Jason: 我甚至不知道。嗯,因为他们曾试图三次打破这个,一、二、三次。在这一点上,我就想,我知道它会到 225 美元。我需要它守住这个水平,这个 223 美元,并且真正超过 228 美元才能完全走出这个区间。所以在那一点上,看,他们无法把它压下去。所以它确实……它确实走高了。不幸的是,它走高是为了吸引更多卖家。嗯,这就是在 228 美元发生的事情。所以,我们……我们现在正在试探的是……是另一个关键水平。所以,我……我想要 110 美元或 210 美元,我最终在这里得到了。这是我的 210 美元,或者只是……接近,这最终……这来自底部,就在这里。所以,顺便说一句,这是一个财报走势,一直……突破财报,全部还回去了,甚至更多。所以在 211 美元,基本上,我们把亚马逊定价在 7 月 31 日的绝对低点。缩小看左边,我喜欢这个整个……设置。嗯,话虽如此,我认为这需要一些时间。我认为你需要对亚马逊有耐心。它确实在财报上波动。但这个……这个从这里去哪里,我认为是一步一步来。223 美元是这个下一个栏,就在这里。所以非常大的时间框架图,我正在看。我覆盖了很多时间。这可能是……像两年的图表。嗯,是的,2024 年。我正在引入 2024 年的水平。我们……我们正在处理这个区域,就在这里。那条红线是 223.84 美元。我认为我们可能会震荡一下。如果这样,当然。那么那个 213 美元或 215 美元的区域应该守住,嗯,随着财报的临近。哎呀。因为它们应该……假设没有像……突发新闻,10 月 30 日。它可能不需要那么多时间。我认为你……你做出轨迹。所以我们在……我们……我们在财报前上涨。就是这个。所以,这都是真实的,但又是虚假的走势,因为人们在期待好的财报。所以,我们可以到这里,我认为 240 美元,235 美元,240 美元是我们……充其量……充其量你会碰壁的地方。嗯,可能就在 230 美元以下,在……在财报前。然后在财报上,再次,所有的赌注都无效了,因为电话会议上发生的一切将决定图表的成败。向上,嗯,向上,这里的延伸,我认为,是……嗯,255 美元。是的。

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>> Okay. Cool. that kind of prevailing channel. >> I don't hate that. >> Are we buying Netflix when we get there? >> Dude, I've been bearish on Netflix for so long that >> only because you you just missed the ride from 100 something. >> Yeah. Yeah, exactly. I missed the ride. I'm not buying it 500 million. Like, no. Like, I'd buy more Google over Netflix any day of the week. But, um, can we do Amazon? And do you think there's potentially a little bit of a breakout happening here? Um, well, I, you know, I I was making fun of Amazon Bears for a little while at this uh, what was it right here? Oh, I don't even know how I just did that. Oh, new toy. That's cool. >> Trading View. Got new toy. >> Was that training? Yeah, >> I think it was Trading View. >> I don't even know. uh cuz they had tried to break this down 1, two, three times. And at this point, I was like, I know that it's going to 225. I needed to hold this level, this 223 and and really over 228 to be fully out of the range. So I at that point, look, they couldn't get it down. So it did it did go higher. Unfortunately, it went higher to get more sellers. Uh, which is what happened at 228. And so, what what we're what we're toying with right now is is another key level. So, I I wanted 110 or 210 is what I wanted and I ended up getting it right here. There's my 210 or just just close to which ends up which which comes from the bottom right here. So, by the way, this is an earnings move all the way breakout earnings, gave it all back and then some. And so at 211 essentially, we priced Amazon at the exact lows of July 31st. And zooming out looking left, I like this whole kind of setup. Um that said, I think this needs some time. I think you need to be patient with Amazon. It it does move on earnings. But where this where this goes from here, I think it's one step at a time. 223 is this next bar right here. So very large time frame chart that I'm looking at. I'm covering a lot of time. This is probably like two years worth of chart. Um, yeah, 2024. I'm bringing 2024 levels in. We're We're dealing with this area right here. And that red line is 22384. I think we're going to possibly chop a little bit. And if this does that, sure. then that 213 or 215 area should hold um with earnings coming around the corner. Oops. As they should assuming there's no like breaking news October 30th. It probably is not going to need that much time. I think you you make the trajectory. So we're in we we are in the pre-earnings runup. That's what this is. So, this is all real but fake moves because people are anticipating good earnings. And so, we can get to here and I think 240 235 240 is where we're going to at best at best where you would hit your head. um possibly just under 230 before before earnings. And then on earnings again, all bets are off because whatever happens on the call is going to make or break the chart. To the upside, um to the upside, the extension here, I think, was uh 255s. Yep.

Amit: 你认为这现在有点像避险交易吗?

Jason: 我的意思是,我认为市场正在轮流审视……你知道,我们在七月下旬、六月、七月、七月下旬经历了这个问题,谁在什么时候应该得到什么样的估值。在某个时候,你知道,嗯,核能股之类的,市场想给它们溢价,而 AWS 或亚马逊,即使有……你……你……你认为亚马逊在服务中断后会受到冲击吗?

Amit: 我……我以为会是 CrowdStrike 模式。我以为我们会得到一个 20%……朋友,那很糟糕,兄弟。就像……

Jason: 那……那实际上真的很糟糕。那很糟糕。但是……

Amit: 我直到下午 3 点才拿回我的 Robinhood。它一整天都用不了。就像,想象一下如果我需要卖东西或买……就像……

Jason: 是的。

Amit: 它搞砸了很多人,不幸的是。

Jason: 不,我甚至不能直播。Restream 只是……

Amit: 谢天谢地,Streamyard。

Jason: 是的。是的。Restream 只是死了。嗯,你知道,我们……我们仍然可能会得到一些,但我认为那会是震荡,因为归根结底,看,这是你……这是你最大的云提供商。我不认为任何人在财报前想在这里做空它,即使有服务中断。另外,Crowd Strike 已经发生过一次了,我认为人们记得那是一个买入机会。

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>> Do do you think it's a bit of more of a safety trade right now? >> I mean, I think that the market is is taking turns looking across of uh you know, we went through this late July, June, July, late July of who deserves what multiple when. at a certain point, you know, well, the the the nucleers and what have you, the market wanted to give them the premium and AWS or Amazon rather just wasn't that interesting even with the Did you Did you Did you think Amazon was going to get hit after the outage? >> I I I thought it was going to be a crowd strike mode. I thought we would get a 20% Dude, it was bad, bro. Like, >> it was it was actually really bad. It was bad. But >> I didn't get my hood back until 3 PM in the day. It was gone for the whole day. Like imagine if I needed to sell something or buy like like >> Yeah, >> it screwed a lot of people unfortunately. >> No, I couldn't even stream. Reream was just >> Thank goodness. Streamyard. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Reream was just dead. Um, you know, we we still might get some of that, but I think that's going to be the chop because at the end of the day, look, this is your this is your largest cloud provider. I don't think anybody wants to short it here ahead of earnings even with an outage. Plus, Crowd Strike already happened once and I think people remember that as a buying opportunity.

Amit: 好的。嗯,Iren,我们看看这只股票,你认为图表在这里说明了什么?

Jason: 这看起来不好。看起来不好,我的朋友。让我们看看。我们需要……我们需要找出这个回调会到哪里。所以我们已经失去了很多动力。嗯,我们有点像冲高回落。所以……

Amit: 我的意思是,这只股票今年仍然上涨了 450%,兄弟。

Jason: 嗯哼。你要到 50 吗?我希望不是……我喜欢 Iren 的想法,只是因为它可能是第一个,但我希望它不像 MSTR,你知道……

Amit: 我们有个计时器。

Jason: 我们就像 MSTR,记得它是第一个比特币国库,然后每个人都开始模仿他们,然后……然后 MSTR 就像失去了它的魔力。

Amit: 我记得,我记得。

Jason: Iren 是第一个……

Amit: 你是说 Iren 可能开始了比特币矿工到数据中心的转型,那对很多它们来说也可能是不好的,但这里唯一的区别是……

Jason: 这让他们……他们不再特别了。

Amit: 但他们仍然从……得到需求。

Jason: 像……

Amit: 来自超大规模云服务商。

Jason: 所以就那一点来说,我仍然会……我仍然会……所以就你说的,我的一部分想喜欢他们。但就像……图表是……嗯,图表说我得冷静一下。至少 52……52 必须是它,因为如果不是……嗯,那就是 42,那一直回到……

Amit: 从基本面角度。我没有看过这只股票的任何东西。我不知道在 52 美元你是否捡到了便宜货,但你是说从图表上看,如果它跌破 52 美元,它会……

Jason: 是的。不,不好,因为那是你……那是你最后的回调。所以当我说跌破时,我不是指像……盘中的小下影线。就像,你不想那样做?就像,我的意思是像……多天收盘在……之下,像那样。那会不好。那……那会带你到这个 42 美元。但如果你只是……如果你只是得到一个小下影线,但然后它收盘在上面,那……那更看涨。话虽如此,即使你得到那个,你也必须在 57 美元非常谨慎,因为在 57 美元……嗯,这里……这里是交易。所以就像……我们有一个……你有一个合法的……像一个合法的头肩顶(Head and Shoulders: 一种常见的图表反转形态,预示着上升趋势的结束)。你知道,人们喜欢这个形态,因为……嗯,你知道,当它……当它确实触发时,它会达到它的目标。我认为统计数据是……嗯,统计数据我不知道你是否知道统计数据。所以……技术分析……嗯,技术分析是关于……统计和概率,嗯,只是找到你的优势。所以这个的统计数据是……嗯,它达到其目标的概率是 83%。收盘在 57 美元以下会触发那种走势。嗯,延伸是……可能到 39 美元,这实际上会是……

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>> Correct. Correct. Yeah. Okay. Um, Irene, can we look at this one and what are you thinking the charts say here? >> This not look good. Does not look good, my friend. Let's see. We need uh we need to find out where is this pullback going to be. So we have lost a lot of the Momo. Well, we were a little bit blowoff top. So >> I mean this one's still up 450% this year, bro. >> Uhhuh. You're going to go 50? I hope it's not I like uh the idea of IN just because it was probably like the first but I hope it's not like MSTR where you know >> we got a timer >> we're like MSTR remember it was the first Bitcoin treasury and then everybody started to copy them and then and then MSTR like lost its mojo. >> I remember I remember >> Ian is the first >> you're saying Iran could have started the Bitcoin miner to data center pivot and that could also be bad for a lot of them but the only difference here is that >> which makes them they're not special anymore >> but they are still getting demand >> like >> from the hypers so >> so to that point like I would still I would still so so to your point part of me wants to like them. But like the chart is um the chart says I got to chillax here. At least 52 52 needs to be it because if it's not um then it's 42 which which goes all the way back to >> from a fundamental perspective. I have not looked at anything on this stock. I don't know if at 52 you're getting a bargain or not, but you're saying from the chart if it loses 52, it's head of >> Yeah. No, it's no good cuz that's your that's your last retracement. And so when I say lose, I don't mean like intraday little wick. Like do you don't want to do that? Like I mean like multiple days closing below like that. That would be no good. And that that takes you down to this 42. But if you just if you were to just get a little wick but then it closes above that's that's more bullish. That said, even if you get that, you have to be really cautious at 57 because at 57 uh here here's the deal. So like we have you have a legitimate like a legitimate head and shoulders. You know people like this pattern because um you know when it when it does fire it'll hit its target. I think the stat is well the the stat I don't know if you know stats. So technicals uh technical analysis is about statistics and probabilities uh and just finding your edge. So the stat on this is uh it hits its target 83% of the time. A close below 57 triggers that kind of move. Um, and the extension is to possibly 39, which actually would be

Amit: 好的,AMD。242 美元。

Jason: 哦,昨天。哦,这很难。嗯,所以交易位置,如果你想看涨。它有点横盘。也许再跌一次,然后让它盘整。这就是我图表上的。嗯,坏的看起来像……

Amit: 我们有个……我们有个新计时器。

Jason: 我很抱歉。坏的看起来像……嗯,我们会做一半。230……227。我的意思是,我甚至不会说这里有一个小的交易时段缺口。这为……嗯……

Amit: 有点力竭。

Jason: 是的,这个财报也不会像……现象级的。所有 OpenAI 的东西,那都是明年的事了,你知道,所以我觉得如果有任何失望,而 AMD 过去三、四个季度都让人失望了,这个能守住吗?

Amit: 别扫兴,伙计。

Jason: 这甚至不是扫兴。只是就像……它可能不像你说的 SoFi,如果它在财报前到 35 美元,它就带走了很多上涨空间。

Amit: 是的。

Jason: 还是说 AMD 会在财报上到 300 美元?我的意思是,为什么?

Amit: 嗯,我会找出……数据中心增长。

Jason: 不是 265 美元。嗯,嗯,哦,晚安。我需要得到这个。哦,那是你的 300 美元数字。那是……你从那里得到的吗?

Amit: 我只是随口一说。我就像……我不知道公司能说什么来真正做出比 240 美元更大的动作,除非数据中心增长有意义地加速,但为什么会呢?就像在第二季度。

Jason: 这是一个……这是一个预测,对吧?所以……嗯,有趣的地方。所以 23……这是什么,227 美元。我只是要快速锚定这个。227.30 美元是那个之前的历史高点,看起来它就在那里反弹了。这很有趣,伙计。我之前没注意到这个,所以幸好技术分析用了它。但 227 美元是那个之前的历史高点。我们有一些收盘在它之上,但那将是你的……那对我来说肯定是你的关键点。227 美元。我记得 222 美元也是一个关键点。所以,我认为你可以让这个盘整一下,可能横盘,但财报要来了,它……它可能更像是一个回调然后反弹,因为你的 20 天线直到 200 美元,我之前有 185 美元。

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>> Okay, AMD. 242. >> Oh, yesterday. Oh, this is tough. Um, so trade location if you want to be bullish. It's a little sideways. Maybe one more dip and then let it consolidate. That's what I have on my chart. Um, bad looks like >> we got a we got a new timer. >> I'm sorry. Bad looks like uh we'll do half on this. 230 227. I mean, I wouldn't even say there's a little session gap right here. This sets up for um >> little exhaustion. >> Yeah, this earnings is also not going to be like phenomenal. Everything that OpenAI all that that's next year, you know, so I feel like if there is any disappointment, which AMD is disappointed for the past three, four quarters, does this get to hold >> rain on the parade, man? >> It's not even raining on the parade. It's just like it might not be that as you said with SoFi, if it gets to 35 before earnings, it takes away a lot of the upside. >> Yeah. >> Or is AMD going to 300 on earnings? I mean, for what? >> Well, I'm gonna find out% data center growth. >> Not 265. Um, well, oh, good night. I need to get this. Oh, there's your 300 number. Is that Did is that what you had it from? >> I just threw it out there. I'm like I I don't know what the company can say to actually make a move that's bigger than 240s unless data center growth meaningfully accelerates but why would it like in Q26 >> it's a it's forecast right so uh interesting spot so 23 what is this 227 I'm just going to anchor this real quick 22730 is that prior all-time high looks like it bounced off right there. This is interesting, man. I didn't notice this before, so thankfully technicals use it. But 227 is that prior all-time high. We've got some closes above it, but that's going to be your that's that's to me for sure going to be your key pivot. 227. And I remember 222 being a pivot, too. So, I think you could let this consolidate a little bit and probably go sideways, but earnings is going to come and it it might be more like a pullback and then bounce because your 20 days not till 200 and I had 185.

Amit: 我不知道我们是否会跌破 200 美元。我觉得那只是……

Jason: 我的意思是 203 美元,那是 20 天简单移动平均线,最好的情况是这个横盘一段时间,或者至少到财报,但有那种走势和财报要来,我只是……人们不会想在实际财报公告前开始获利了结吗?这是我现在脑子里唯一的事情。

Amit: 我的观点,朋友,他们上个季度数据中心增长了 14%,如果第三季度没有大幅超过那个,华尔街会为什么兴奋?现在,如果他们疯狂提高指引,他们应该这样做,那可能会是一个改变。但话又说回来,这个 OpenAI 的事情还没有确认。他们得先建好数据中心才能买所有的 MI450。所以,他们能真的在他们的指引里说 OpenAI 明年会买 100 亿美元的东西吗?这就是为什么我说我真的不知道该如何看待这个进入财报季,鉴于很多东西已经计入价格了。有人可能会这么说。

Jason: 是的。嗯,我能告诉你的就是,这个 227 美元是你的关键点,从那个之前的历史高点。这是……我们称之为高位紧凑。所以,它……它正在试图继续这个看涨结构。如果它这样做,那么 265 美元是你的下一站,嗯,如果这个突破。如果它不突破,那么 203 美元到 190 美元是你的看涨回调。嗯……是的,那是一个……那是一个看涨回调,然后 300 美元,我猜。嗯……但我……我们得一步一步来,265 美元,可能 270 美元,而且你知道,它是 AMD,有时候它会……这东西我打赌 AMD……我的意思是,你可能有一天早上开盘,它会下跌 10%。这就是 AMD 一直以来的交易方式。你一天下跌 10%,接下来三天连续上涨 7%,就像……或者就像连续三天上涨 7%,连续四天下跌 15%。AMD 以前就是这样。

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>> I don't know if we I don't know if we get below 200. I feel like that's just >> I mean 203 that's the 20-day simple best case scenario this goes sideways for a while >> or at least to earnings but with that kind of a move and earnings coming I'm just wouldn't people want to start taking profits before the actual earnings announcement is is that's the only thing in my head right now >> my point dude they did 14% data center growth last quarter if if Q3 is not substantially above that what is the streak going to get excited for? Now, if they bump up the guidance like crazy, which they should, that could be a change. But then again, this OpenAI stuff is not confirmed. They've got to build the data centers before they buy all the MIA450s. So, can they actually put in their guy that OpenAI is going to be buying10 billion worth of stuff next year? That's why I'm saying I I I really don't know how to think of this going into earnings given a lot is priced in. One could argue. >> Yeah. Well, all I can tell you right now is that this 227 is your key pivot from that prior all-time high. It's this is what we call high and tight. So, it's it's trying to continue on this bearish or bullish structure. And if it does, then 265 is your next stop uh if this breaks out. And if it doesn't, then 203 to 190 is your bullish retracement. Um yeah, that is a that is a bullish retracement and then 300 I guess. Um but I we have to one stop at a time 265 possibly 270 and plus you know it's AMD sometimes it's up this thing I bet you AMD I mean could you could open up one day one morning and it'll be down 10%. This is how AMD is always traded. You're down down 10% one day, up up 7% the next three days in a row like like or just like up 7% three days in a row, down 15% four days in a row. That's how AMD used to be.

Amit: Jason,我们可以快速暂停一下吗?我们有一些突发新闻。Anthropic 正在与谷歌就一项价值数百亿美元的云交易进行谈判。因此,谷歌正在上涨,而亚马逊正在下跌。

Jason: 我就知道我们会得到那个回调。

Amit: 太搞笑了。

Jason: 是的。你看到了吗?

Amit: 你看到今天关于谷歌的头条新闻了吗?那是什么?OpenAI 浏览器模式。

Jason: OpenAI 浏览器。是的,OpenAI 浏览器的事情。

Amit: 然后它就直接回去了。直接回去了。对。

Jason: 然后它就直接回去了。关于亚马逊在这里下跌的奇怪之处在于,亚马逊拥有 Anthropic 的很大一部分股份,根据我们昨天看的一些报道,他们每年从 Anthropic 在 AWS 上获得近 30 亿美元。所以我猜如果这是正确的,Anthropic 正在转向谷歌,这对亚马逊有点利空。嗯,但我也认为这有点……只是 Anthropic 需要……

Amit: 他们想要更多样化的供应商,对吧?这是很多超……很多基础模型正在做的事情。

Jason: 就像 OpenAI 正在使用所有这些人,所以……

Amit: 还有,我们听到的这些头条新闻里的数字,朋友,它们每天都在变得越来越大。

Jason: 数百亿。我不知道这是通货膨胀还是什么。

Amit: 我只希望这笔钱真的存在。就像……我只希望有一天我们能摸到这笔钱。就像甲骨文 3000 亿的剩余履约义务。嗯,我希望 3000 亿是从某个地方来的。我真的希望。

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>> Jason, can we can we pause real quick? We do have some breaking news. Anthropic is in talks with Google for a cloud deal worth tens of billions. As a result, Google's pumping and Amazon is dumping. >> I knew we were going to get that pullback. >> Hilarious. >> Yeah. Did you see that? >> Did you see the headline today on Google? What was it? Open AI browser mode. >> OpenI browser. Yeah, Open AI browser thing. >> And then it went straight back. Straight back. Right. >> And then it went straight back. And the weird thing about Amazon dumping right here is Amazon owns a good chunk of Anthropic and they get paid based on some reporting that we looked at yesterday almost three billion a year from Anthropic on AWS. So I guess it's kind of bearish Amazon if this is correct and Anthropic is moving to Google. Uh but I also think it's kind of just anthropic needs >> they want more diversified vendors right which is a lot of the hyper a lot of the foundation models are doing that >> like open eye is using all these guys so >> also these numbers that we're hearing in the headlines dude they're just getting bigger and bigger and bigger every day >> tens of billions I don't know if this is inflation or what >> I just hope this money is there. It's like re I just hope one day we can touch this money. That's like Oracle 300 billion in remaining performance obligate. Well, I hope 300 billion is coming from somewhere. I really do.

Amit: 好的,让我们做完 Hims,然后我们做谷歌。

Jason: 哦不,我认为 Hims 就像……40% 的空头浮动是疯狂的。嗯,所以有人在玩火。不是说会是轧空,但它……它正在为轧空做准备。嗯,它……它在盘整中。所以,嗯,财报在 11 月 3 日。坦率地说,任何在这里高点加仓的空头……这个……顺便说一句,这是他们应该加仓的地方,交易位置,他们应该在这个下半部分回补。那是他们应该做的,特别是当我们接近下个月初的财报时。我喜欢这个 50 美元以下的区域。让我们说……你知道,我不能给你一个关于 Hims 的具体数字,因为它可能非常波动,我可以说 48 美元,但在一两分钟内,它可以从 48 美元到 40 美元,然后再回到 48 美元。所以在……在某个地方……沿着这个轨迹,45 美元左右。

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>> So great. Okay, let's finish him and then then we'll do Google. >> Oh no, I think he is like 40% short float is crazy. Um, so somebody's playing with fire. Not saying it's going to be a short squeeze, but it it it's posturing for a squeeze. Um, and it's it is in consolidation. So, um, earnings are coming on the on the 3rd of November. Quite frankly, any shorts that I I I like this, dude. any shorts that added up here at the highs. This this by the way is where they should be adding their shorts trade location and they should be covering in this bottom half down here. That that's how they should be doing especially as as we approach earnings at the beginning of next month. I like this area below 50. Let's say some, you know, I can't give you a specific number on on hands because it's can be so volatile that I could say 48, but within one or two minutes it can go from 48 to 40 and then back to 48. So somewhere somewhere along this kind of trajectory, 45ish.

Amit: 好的,有道理。嗯,我猜我们接下来做谷歌。你认为图表在这里说明了什么?在 OpenAI 的头条新闻后,它很好地守住了 250 美元。

Jason: 是的,它做到了。谷歌今天早上有点力竭。我实际上把它放在……嗯,像日内交易观察名单上,但……嗯,它已经……它已经有点像……达到了它的位置。所以,我们在高点开盘。你得到了一点……向上看然后失败。嗯,一点向上看然后失败,但在 20 天简单移动平均线处被救了,这也恰好是那个 245 美元、248 美元的水平,这就是我今天所有的,回调,重新测试。嗯,即使有新闻头条,那个 248 美元到可能……下行会是 245 美元。那实际上都在……在几分钟内发生了。嗯,锁定了一个更高的低点。所以更高的搞点,更高的低点。这现在看起来更好了。只需要一点持续的动力。嗯,在……是的。245 美元在……嗯,经过一点延长的……盘整,月底你可能会得到那个,朋友,我们做这个吗?我……太多了。所以明天如果它在 256 美元以上,有力量,是的。轨迹……轨迹是 268 美元,就在 270 美元以下,对于下一个走势,就在这个盘整这里。那个今天的回调……很不错,盘前回调 245 美元,然后盘中更高的低点。是的,我的意思是它看起来……它看起来不错,伙计。你要重新加仓吗?

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>> Okay, makes sense. Um, I guess let's do Google then. And what do you think the charts are kind of saying here? It did defend 250 nicely after the opening eye headline. >> Yeah, it did. Google this morning was a little exhausted. I actually had this on on um like day trade watch, but uh it had already it's it had already kind of hit like where it was. So, we open at the highs. You get a little bit of a look above and fail. uh little bit of a look above and fail, but saved at the 20-day simple moving average, which also happens to be that 245, 248 kind of level, which is all I had for the day, pullback, retest. Um, even with the news headlines that 248 to potentially, it would have been 245 to the downside. that actually all happened in the in a matter of minutes. Uh locks in a higher low. So higher high, higher low. This looks better now. Just need a little sustained momentum. Um and after Yeah. 245 after um a bit of an extended consolidation end of the month you could get that dude are we doing this I too much so tomorrow if it's over 256 with strength yeah The trajectory trajectory is 268 just underneath 270 for the next move on just this consolidation here. And that pullback today was pretty good pre-market pullback 245 and then higher low intraday. Yeah, I mean it looks it looks decent, man. Are you gonna reload?

Amit: 好的。所以我们还剩两个,各位,然后我们今天会提前结束。第一,因为我得早点走。第二,因为我们有财报,我们得先拿到财报才能做技术分析。所以,最后两个。嗯,第一个我们做 Palantir。这只股票感觉像是在为向上或向下的走势积极蓄力。

Jason: 哦,看我画的曲线。嗯,我想这是从我们上次……所以它很激进。这是我们上次的技术分析。嗯,但我们还没到那里。这是盘整箱体。那个突破在……是的。190 美元。所以 190 美元是它技术上碰壁的地方。它会……它会碰壁。嗯,你得等它筑底然后突破。我不知道,朋友。嗯,它看起来还行。这个……我认为你需要反应而不是预期。

Amit: 我感觉它会到 200 美元,兄弟。这就是……这就是我的看法。我可能错了。

Jason: 我……我唯一……我唯一关于那个的想法是,如果它先回调到 158 美元再到 200 美元呢?但……但它不需要一个更……基本面的催化剂,像一个糟糕的财报才能到那里吗?哦……

Amit: 只是情绪,某种头条新闻。

Jason: 是的。我……我觉得……我觉得如果它要回到那些水平,就像……当你看到所有这些高贝塔股票回调时,Palantir 最糟糕的只看到 171 美元,那还是因为一篇路透社的文章。

Amit: 是的。

Jason: 当整个……Citron 的事情发生时,它到了 142 美元,但那是三个月前。所以它在 170 美元到 180 美元的紧凑区间里待了差不多两个月。

Jason: 非常紧凑。我们只需要……所以这是你说的那个 170 美元的箱体,就在这里,中心线就像 178 美元,然后你有……嗯,就像……记得……所以成交量架……就像这是一个……我们称之为成交量节点,所以就像如果你失去了峰值,这就是为什么我说 157 美元,嗯,但……它……我的意思是技术分析……技术分析是……它是反应性的,就像……我可以预测,但它的工作方式……技术分析的工作方式是……它是……如果这样,那么那样。所以必须先发生一些事情,我才能反应,我们不想预期,对吧。所以必须发生什么我才能反应,是这个必须守住 190 美元以上。当……当它守住 190 美元以上时,那么技术分析会说这是……这就像……极高的可能性会发生。但在此之前,它更多的是一个观察,因为我只是……从战术角度现在拿它。这是预期……嗯,这是你不应该从技术分析角度做的事情,就像……只是做一个交易员一秒钟。嗯,所以它非常……在一个重度观察中,但如果……但再次,如果它……如果它失去了那个 50 天线,有力量,那么更好的买点是在那个 17……157 美元,那可能……可能只是那种……发射台来做这个,但即使那样,你仍然需要这个反应水平。所以,它是……如果这样,那么那样。嗯,如果它超过 190 美元,那么我们去 215 美元。这就是……如果这样,那么。酷。

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>> Okay. So, we got two more left, guys, and then we'll be ending early today. Number one, because I got to leave early. Number two, because we have earnings and we kind of got to get the earnings before we do a TA. So, last two. Uh, first one let's do is pounder. This one feels like it's coiling up aggressively for a move either up or down. >> Oh, look at the squiggles I had. Uh, I think this is from our last um, so it is aggressive. This is our last TT. Um but we are not there yet. This is the consolidation box. That breakout is over. Yeah. 190. So 190 is where it's technically hitting it. It's going to hit its head. Um you have to wait for that to base and break it. I don't know, dude. Um it looks okay. This I think you need to react and not anticipate on this. >> I feel like it's going to 200, bro. That's just that's my that's my take. I could be wrong. >> My my only my only thing about that is like what if it pulls to 158 first before it goes to 200? But but wouldn't it need a a more fundamental catalyst to like a crappy earnings to get there? Oh >> just sentiment, some kind of headline. >> Yeah. I I feel like I feel like if it was going to go back to those levels like while you've had all these high beta names pull back, the worst pounder saw was 171 and that was off a Reuters article. >> Yeah. >> It got it had 142 when the whole uh Citron thing, but that was three months ago. So it's been in a tight 170 to 180 range for almost two months. >> It's very tight. We just need to get so this is that 170 box that you're talking about right here and the center line is like 178 and then you have uh like remember so the volume shelf like this is a we call this a volume node so like if you lose the peak that's why I said 157s um but it's what I what I mean technicals technical analysis is It's reactive like I can forecast but it's the way it works the way TA works is it's it's if this then that. So something has to happen first for me to react and we don't want to anticipate right. So what has to happen for me to react is that this has to hold over 190. And when when it holds over 190, then the technicals will say this is this is like extreme high probability that that's going to happen. But until then, it's more of just a watch cuz I just to take it here now from a tactical perspective. This is anticipating um which is what you're not supposed to do from a TA perspective like just to be a trader for a second. Um so it's it's very much on a heavy watch but if uh but again if it if it loses that 50-day in strength then the better buy is is in that 17 157 which might just might just be that kind of launching pad to do this but even then you still need this reaction level. So, it's if this, then that. Um, if it's over 190, then we're going to 215. That's the if this, then. Cool.

Amit: 好的,最后一个。再次强调,各位,我们今天没能分析很多股票,但今天不是一个接受大量请求的日子,因为我们有财报要公布。嗯,这是一个两部分的问题。

Jason: 而且他今晚有约会。

Amit: 我……我没有……

Jason: 是一个生日前晚餐。

Amit: 和牙医。

Jason: 一个生日前晚餐。嗯,有两个。所以……所以你可以花最后两天。

Amit: 哇。

Jason: 不太……英伟达和黄金。英伟达和黄金。

Jason: 嗯,177 美元是我们谈到的那个水平,我上周或前几次谈到的。那是那个……嗯,在这里。这是那个我们称之为控制点的地方。我的意思是,朋友,它就在那里。所以,这是一个看涨的守住。这里唯一的问题是 177 美元,我的意思是……那里……就是它。嗯,那是看涨的守住。我们仍然在试探这个 20 天和 50 天简单移动平均线。所以你看到我们是如何卡在那条白色和蓝色线之间的。这就是我的意思。我们……我们称之为移动平均线……像乒乓球。你在它们之间来回打乒乓球。乒乓球乒乓球乒乓球,直到你最终出去,那会是进入 190 美元区域。嗯,在此之前,那可能意味着我们必须……我说我们,我做多英伟达,但就像……你必须……你……它正在筑底。我只是不认为……嗯,所以当我们接近财报季时,对我来说,交易是……嗯,每个人都会开始报告,如果你不记得这是怎么回事,嗯,会是微软、Meta、亚马逊、谷歌,每个人都会谈论……AI GPU,我们越接近那个,我不认为你想不做多,因为英伟达的财报前上涨发生了,顺便说一句,直到像十二月才发生,发生在……在每个人都在谈论他们的支出会是多少的时候。

Amit: 对,并且增加他们的支出指引,是的。

Jason: 是的。或者不,对吧。但……但从我能看出的,我的意思是,你想读懂市场,数字只是……我刚才说了,10 秒或一分钟前,数字一直在变大。我们一直听到的数字只是越来越大。无论你是否相信这个……情况,我只是不……我……我认为这是……这是你会积累的地方。

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All right, last one. Again, guys, we weren't able to do a lot of stocks today, but this is not one of those days to take a ton of requests because we have earnings coming up. Um, well, this is a two-parter. >> And And he's got his date tonight. >> I I don't have >> It's a pre-birth dinner >> with the dentist. >> A pre- birthday dinner. Uh, there's two of them. So, so you you can spend the last two days. >> Wow. >> Not too uh Nvidia and gold. Nvidia and gold. >> A little bit and then gold. >> Well, 177 was that level that we talked about that I talked about last week or last last couple times. And that was that um in here. This is that what we call point of control. I mean, dude, it's right there. So, it is a bullish hold. The only issue here 177 I mean that that that there it is. Um that's the bullish hold. We're still toying with this 20 and 50 day simple moving averages. So you see how we're stuck in between that white and blue line. That's what I mean. We we call this moving average like ping pong. You pingpong in between them. Ping pong ping pong ping pong till you finally get out which would be into the 190s. Um, and until then that might mean that we have to that I say we I'm log in I have Nvidia but like you would have to you'd have to you it's building this base. I just don't think that uh so as we approach earning season, here's the deal to me is that um everybody's going to start to report and if you don't remember how this goes um it's going to be Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google, and everybody's going to be talking about what AI GPUs and the closer that we get to that I don't think that you want to be not long cuz this pre- earnings runup for Nvidia happens which by the way does not till like December happens in the midst of everybody talking about what their spend is going to be >> right and and increasing their spend guidance yeah >> yeah or not right but but from what I can tell I mean you want to read the market the numbers just I just said it 10 seconds or a minute ago the numbers keep getting bigger. The numbers that we keep hearing about are just getting bigger and bigger. Whether or not you believe in this uh situation, I just don't I I think this is the this is where you would accumulate.

Amit: 好的。我同意你的看法。我认为它正在盘整。嗯,黄金经历了自 2013 年 4 月以来最大的下跌。你认为这可怕吗,还是你认为这个交易已经力竭了?我的意思是,我不知道你是否在交易黄金,但你会怎么看?

Jason: 嗯,他们损失了万亿。

Amit: 是的。嗯,我的意思是,黄金一直在上涨。我的意思是,黄金一直在……多个央行因为美元整体疲软而做多黄金。

Jason: 对冲美元和……和地缘政治风险。所以我们越谈论贸易谈判和……是的,所以我们这里有一个小双顶。我不知道。

Amit: 那一点点,那看起来像一个完整的双顶,对吧?那看起来……

Jason: 是的。是的。完整的双顶。我今天甚至没看到图表是那样的。那是……是的。

Amit: 是的,那是日线图。所以那是双顶。嗯,我想明天会告诉我们,如果我要说,嘿,看,双顶是如何发展的?同样的事情。你真的从低点到……这里。这是你的……这是你的……这是你的盘整水平。你在这里有一个突破。它是一个测量移动,基本上到 20 天线,那是 39……就在 4000 美元以下。我想你再做多,朋友。我不认为你想要……我不认为……

Amit: 哦,你看涨。你看涨。

Jason: 是的,我不认为你对抗这个。嗯……

Amit: 哼。不,我的意思是,只要看看美元。所以美元……我不知道,除非美元像……爬上来,那是……那是有点像……当前煤矿里的一个金丝雀,嗯……

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>> Okay. I I agree with you. I think it's consolidating. Well, gold had the April the the lowest the highest draw down since April 2013. Do you think that is scary or do you think the trade is exhausted? I mean, I don't know if you're playing gold, but how would you how would you think of it? >> Um, they lost trillion. >> Yeah. Well, I mean, gold's been making this move. I mean, on gold's been carrying this move. multiple central banks getting long gold due to the dollar weakness as a whole >> hedging against the dollar and um and geopolitical risks. So the more that we talk about trade talks and yeah so we had a little bit of a double top here. I don't know >> that a little bit that looks like a full-on double right that looks >> Yeah. Yeah. Full on double top. I didn't even see the chart look like that today. That is Yeah. >> Yeah, that's daily. So, that's the double top. Um I think tomorrow would tell if I were to say, hey, look, how does a double top play out? Same kind of thing. You you really take from the low to here. Here's your here's your here's your consolidation level. You have a break through here. It's a measured move essentially to the 20-day which is 39 just under 4K. And I think you get long again, dude. I do not think that you want I don't think >> Oh, you're bullish. You're bullish. >> Yeah, I don't think you fight this. Um >> Huh. No, I mean just look at the dollar. So the dollar I don't know unless the dollar like climbs up which is which is kind of like the one canary in the current coal mine um

Amit: 好的,但兄弟,但这里……这里是问题。黄金……如果黄金在接下来的六个月里横盘,我认为很多为此兴奋的人的狂热,我认为会很快消退,对吧?就像如果它六个月持平,谁……谁会在 Robinhood 上买黄金?

Jason: 那不是黄金上涨的原因。

Amit: 那不是……那与……无关。

Jason: 我会挑战……

Amit: 你认为都是央行吗?

Jason: 你认为都是央行吗?

Amit: 是的。

Jason: 好的。所以你认为它今天为什么下跌?央行。

Jason: 嗯,我们刚才谈到了,字面上就像……会议,如果……如果地缘政治风险不是问题,然后美元再次开始走强,一点点。嗯,它是……

Amit: 哦,中国。中国,也是。中国可能是。是的。

Jason: 是中国。是印度。嗯,还有谁?嗯……

Amit: 有很多国家一直在囤积它。他们可能只是在那里获利了结。

Jason: 也许是散户获利。也许是散户做空。我会说,看,如果你……如果你担心它,有一个……嗯,有一个 ETF 叫……嗯,GDXD,那是反向金矿股 ETF。这东西像 89 美分,85 美分。你可以买一些这个作为对冲。它可能不会动很多,但……嗯,这是另一个……你知道,GVZ,我需要做这个。所以,这会告诉我。呀。

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>> okay, but bro, but here here's the thing. Gold if gold is sideways for the next six months, I think a lot of the euphoria of people that got excited for it, I think that dies out pretty quick, right? Like if it's flat for six months, who's who's buying up gold on the Robin Hood? >> That's not why gold's going up. >> That's not That has nothing to do with how I I I would challenge >> You think it's all central banks? >> You think it's all central banks? >> Yeah. >> Okay. So, why do you think it's going off today? Central banks. >> Uh well, we just talked about it literally like the the meetings if if geopolitical risks are not a thing and then the dollar starts to strengthen again a little bit. Um, it's >> Oh, China. China, too. China could be. Yeah, >> it's China. It's India. Um, who else is it? Uh, >> there's a lot of countries that have been loading up on it. They might just be taking profits over there. >> Maybe retail profits. Maybe retail shorting. I would say look if you if you if you are concerned about it there is a um there's an ETF called uh GDXD which is the a inverse gold miners ETF. This thing is like 89 cents 85 cents. You could pick some of this up as a hedger. It's probably not going to move a whole lot but um this is another one where uh you know what GVZ I need to do this. So, this will tell me. Yikes.

Amit: 那是黄金波动率指数。天哪。

Jason: 你知道这是什么吗?你怎么知道这是什么?

Amit: 谁教你的?

Jason: 我只是在背景里读到的。我应该装作,兄弟,我一直交易这个。当然我……

Jason: 不,这是秘密。嗯,所以黄金波动率指数的工作方式,代码是 GVZ,嗯,是……就像……

Amit: 它就像黄金的 VIX。

Jason: 它是黄金的 VIX。不完全是……黄金的工作方式和……和黄金周围的波动性是……波动性在黄金上涨时上升。当黄金下跌时,波动性不上升。它有点像……反向的。所以这个整个走势……嗯,我……我正在看……我应该拿这个。该死。不管怎样。嗯,所以我们……有点在这个黄金波动率指数上达到了顶峰。这是之前的高点。这是……这肯定是顶峰。嗯,但如果你想要一个秘密的……知道黄金是涨是跌的方法,嗯,我会把这个放在你的雷达上。如果这个黄金波动率指数开始回升,意思是这个开始做一点……像那样,它可能会走高。黄金就是这样运作的。

Amit: 当他们买入时,这个东西就向上飙升。

Jason: 显然。

Amit: 是的。

Jason: 这个信息是……是的。

Amit: 是的。字面上。

Jason: 字面上。所以,明天是重要的一天,特斯拉,Amit 有他的约会,显然是两个约会,排好了。我不知道。我昨天一整天都在 Grinder 上邀请。我进不去他的 Grinder 个人资料。我被封锁了。就像,是的。

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>> That's the gold volatility index. Goodness. >> You know what this is? How do you even know what this is? >> Who taught you that? >> I just read it in the background. That's I should have played it off like, bro, I trade this all the time. Of course I >> No, this is secret. Um, so the way that the gold volatility index works, tickers GVZ, um, is is like >> it's like the VIX for gold. >> It is the VIX for gold. Not literally the way that gold works and and and and the volatility around gold is that volatility goes up when gold goes up. When gold goes down, volatility does not go up. It's like it's kind of inverse. So this whole move um I I was looking I should have taken this. Damn it. Whatever. Um so we have kind of peaked at this gold volatility index. This is the prior highs. This is this is peakish for sure. Um, but if you want a secret squirrel kind of way to know whether or not gold's going up or down, um, I would put this on your radar. And if this gold volatility index starts to climb back up, meaning this starts to do a little something like that, she's probably going higher. That's just how gold works. >> As they buy, this thing cranks to the upside. >> Clearly. >> Yeah. >> This information is Yeah. >> Yeah. Literally. >> Literally. So, big day tomorrow, Tessy and Mit's got his dates, two dates apparently, lined up. I don't know. I did not Grinder invite all day yesterday. I couldn't get onto his Grinder profile. I was shut down. Like, yeah.

Amit: 好的,各位。就是这样。Jason 的推特。请确保关注他。他的私人链接也在这里,在他的推特、Discord,所有这些东西,可以更多地与他互动。再次强调,我们今天没有分析很多股票,因为我们有财报要公布。所以,坦率地说,很多技术分析在接下来的两周内不会有太大意义,直到我们得到这些财报。但是,我们下周会回来,嗯,特斯拉是明天的大事,然后我们再看。

Jason: 我们下周有约。

Amit: 我们有吗?下周二是什么时候?我们可能没有。

Jason: 28 号。

Amit: 28 号。是的,我想我们……我的意思是,是 Visa、Cheesecake Factory 和 Enphase。我们可以看 20 分钟的财报。

Jason: Cheesecake Factory。也许那是个不错的选择。

Amit: 是的,我们可以做……我同意。

Jason: 好的,就这样。谢谢你,Jason 先生。感谢。再次强调,他的推特和 YouTube 在聊天中。嗯,每日回顾会在几个小时内发布,所以今天会发布,我明天会回来做开盘节目。

Jason: 好的,回头见,各位。再见。感谢大家。明天见,各位。再见。

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>> He texted me. He's like, "Bro, heard there was an AWS outage. Have you been able to post on Grinder?" And I'm like, "Bro, you so much." >> Yeah. You know, >> all right, guys. >> That is it. Jason's Twitter. Please make sure to follow him. His private links as well are here on his Twitter, Discord, all that stuff >> to interact more with him. Again, We didn't do a lot of names today because we have earnings coming up. So, quite frankly, a lot of the TA is not going to matter over the next two weeks until we get these earnings. But, we will be back next week and um Tesla's the big one tomorrow and then we'll go from there. >> We're on for next week. >> Are we What's next Tuesday? We might not. >> 28th >> 28th. Yeah, I think we I mean it's Visa, Cheesecake Factory, and Nphase. We could look at earnings for 20 minutes. >> Cheesecake Factory. Maybe that's a good one. >> Yeah, we can do I'm down. >> All right, there you go. Thank you, Mr. Jason. Appreciate it. Again, there's his Twitter and YouTube in the chat. Uh the daily recap will be out in a couple hours, so that'll be posted today and I'll be back tomorrow for the market open. >> All right, see you later, guys. Adios. Thank everybody. See you guys tomorrow. Bye everyone.