Donald Trump: They built this great military. I said, "You'll never have to use it, but sometimes you have to use it." And Cuba's next, by the way, but pretend I didn't say that, please.

Host: That was US President Donald Trump back in March. He was talking about his government's military action in Venezuela. And then he dropped in that little nugget about Cuba. The US was already putting massive pressure on the island. At the beginning of the year, it imposed an oil blockade causing power outages and fuel shortages. And then last month, the US announced criminal charges against former President Ro Castro over the downing of civilian airplanes in 1996. It also ramped up sanctions causing foreign companies to cut ties. And just last week, Sunwing vacations and WestJet vacations announced that operations in Cuba will be suspended until further notice. So what happens now? Well, observers haven't ruled out the possibility of US military action or regime change or some kind of deal. We'll look into all of that and the role Canada could play. Then we head to Niagara Falls to find out about its centuries old ties with the island and learn more about how Cuban Canadians are navigating this crisis. Welcome to the rundown.

Host: President Donald Trump's intentions towards Cuba are still unclear as the situation on the island gets worse by the day. What are the potential outcomes here and what part should Canada play? Mark Antwistle served as Canadian ambassador to Cuba from 1993 to 1997 and is now a senior fellow at the Monk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy and he joins us in studio. How are you doing, sir?

Mark Antwistle: I am good.

Host: All right, let's talk. For more than half a century, Canada essentially stood by Cuba. Now we're seeing international and Canadian businesses withdraw. We are seeing airlines, including Canadian ones, suspend their flights or forced to confront sort of a difficult question that is what obligation, if any, do Canadians still have to Cubans?

Mark Antwistle: Well, it's certainly true that Canada has a long and quite storied engagement in Cuba. We've been there even before the revolutionary period, you know, back to, in fact, just after the Second World War. So, we were through the military coup of Fuhensi Batista, the whole revolutionary period. We've been front and center and and sort of watching all of this. Uh, we've been very engaged in Cuba for for many years. Um, I think Canada's obligation uh uh certainly is not to defend uh Cuba per se, but I think our obligation as Canadians and and also the government of Canada. I would argue we do have an obligation when we when we are witnessing a sovereign state of the Americas under what is effectively uh economic assault uh by another neighbor uh in the hemisphere. So there I think there are some moral uh uh uh obligations. There are things that Canada could do. The reality though of course is that the the government of Canada faces you know many challenges at all times. Uh it's our relationship with the United States is very challenged at the moment. Uh uh lots of irritants that the uh the Americans have put forward many of them are quite vexacious even some invented. Uh uh I would suspect that the last thing that the current government wants to do is add yet another layer of irritant at the moment. So I'm personally not expecting a robust voice from the government of Canada.

Host: I I am curious as you mentioned many western countries historically have taken a harder line than Canada and I am curious has Canada's engagement over the decades produced any tangible results for either country?

Mark Antwistle: I would argue this one of the great debates 100%. Um uh in the United States they would argue absolutely none. We've been duped. Um I would argue in fact quite the contrary. Um uh have we uh you know occasioned multi-party democratic elections? No. But we've set a standard of uh of uh expectations from the Cubans on uh on uh uh human rights issues. for example, we've had, you know, deep conversations with them. I think they probably, you know, scaled back some of their uh instinct to control uh from time to time. We've helped them build institutions. We've helped them with environmental work in Cuba. We've helped with directly with the Cuban people, uh helped them train in modern economics, help them uh uh um uh develop businesses, etc. And our policy is very similar to Mexico, very similar to Spain. Um, it's the idea is that you engage with people even if you don't agree with them all the time.

Host: Well, you talk you brought up the the human rights perspective. You know, groups like Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch have pointed to to rights violations and it wasn't that long ago where there were mass arrests as well. Should Canada be more vocal in this moment when it comes to the human rights um sort of issues in that country?

Mark Antwistle: Well, my personal view is the Cubans understand us very clearly. uh we uh are vocal when when we certainly need to. Uh the issue of human rights in Cuba is is a totally legitimate subject. It's part of the mix. It's part of the the the the uh the story, if you will, uh uh about Cuba. Um uh the Cubans at times, uh you know, had not done the very best job they possibly could and at times have failed on individual political rights. I think uh you know people recognize that I've spent a lot of time with the Cubans over 30 plus years of of dealing with them and uh their their position is that there are all kinds of different rights and I would not disagree with Amnesty International or or any Cubans who who are uh bringing to the four human rights issues. The Cuban argument is that also there are other kinds of rights. There are collective rights to education. There are collective rights to health care. There are collective rights to uh um um to a certain you know basic standard of living for example uh which they also believe are is you know to be a human right. So it's u their track record is a I would say mixed a mixed bag.

Host: Okay. I want to change gears a little bit. Let's talk uh a little bit about uh the US and Donald Trump. Um, as we know, Trump administration has begun a campaign against Cuba over the last several months. We got the oil blockade. We have charges against Raul Castro, uh, and other general threats. Is Cuba a threat to the US?

Mark Antwistle: That's a very good question, and that's at the core of some of the argumentation that you'll hear from Washington. Uh, I might as well not sugarcoat this and speak quite frankly. uh in in my in my uh quite lengthy experience with the Cubans, uh I I believe that's a that the idea that Cuba is some kind of existential n national security threat to the United States is a pretext. I don't believe that Cuba is a security threat to the United States at all. There's under no threat of of of invasion. Um the only real national security threat to the United States coming from Cuba is of unbridled or unbound migration. That's that's the national security threat, you know, and you know, they'll talk about the relationship with the Russians and with the Chinese. Uh those are historic relationships through the revolutionary period. I do know the Cubans would value a reset in the relationship with the United States. If there are legitimate security issues that the United States has, they should sit down as adults with the Cubans and talk to them about it. I'm quite convinced the Cubans have said they've told you know me they've told uh the Americans directly we will talk we will deal with any issue um so that we can have a proper relationship uh including including national security issues so let's have a conversation about it

Host: well in March uh Trump said quote I can do anything I want uh with Cuba and we know US Secretary of State Marco Rubio continues to call for regime change is there a meaningful distinction between supporting a democratic change versus supporting a regime change.

Mark Antwistle: Here's part of the challenge with Cuba. Um there I believe there are layers of motivation all existing simultaneously piled on top of each other which is why it's a little hard to discern what the Americans really want in all of this. Um and a number of them are contradictory. If there's a core contradiction in all of this, it's it's uh that the interests of the CubanAmerican, the hardline old establishment CubanAmerican political elites uh in Miami, who are the political patrons of somebody like Secretary Marco Rubio, their interests are not synonymous with the interests of the United States of America. In the past, different administrations have realized this, President Carter, President Obama, and have charted a different path. the current Trump administration um is fused with the Cuban-American community and of course Secretary Rubio is principal uh a principal player uh in this and in my opinion has effectively loaned out its foreign policy uh to the hardline CubanAmerican community uh a special a special interest group um but I think the motivations are quite distinct but they're all kind of jumbled together slightly fused uh the motivation of the Cubaname American hardline commun CubanAmerican community is essentially a revenge uh uh narrative and to recover all properties. That's effectively what it is. The interests of the United States and you'll see in President Trump is a little different there. It's more about US business interests um returning almost to the 1950s kind of Cuba is an economic colony of the United States again. Rarely do they talk about democratization in Cuba. Very, very rarely. And I think that's quite telling. And I think the experience in Venezuela is telling as well.

Host: Despite the threats, as we know, many people are are watching what's happening there. What is the likelihood of this escalating further?

Mark Antwistle: Well, President Trump often talks uh or says that, for example, the Cubans have no cards to play. And let's be honest, they have very few cards to play. Okay, their backs are against the wall and he will say, "I have all the cards to play." My personal view is he really only has two cards to play and none of them are particularly palatable and each are kind of risky. The first one is some kind of military operation to effectively invade the country, let's say, or go try to try to extract Rul Castro or some crazy thing like that. Um but there you're facing a risk um uh uh that General Coen Powell pointed out when he was advising the Bush administration to be wary about uh uh invasion of Iraq back in the day. Um if you break it, you own it. So the risk there is the United States suddenly overnight becomes responsible for the welfare and well-being of one of 11 and a quarter impoverished and down and out Cubans at on the US taxpayer bill, right? And uh that's not a situation I don't think one would want to be in. They would want to be in. Um and the second card is to continue the pressure, continue um an uh to effectively with neon chest of the Cuban economy and hands around the throat of the Cuban economy try to strangle the life out of it. And the intent there can only be to try to provoke some kind of uprising uh or uh total surrender on the part of the Cuban government. I personally think it's a rather cynical approach uh uh because it's um using innocent civilians, the Cuban people as pawns in a game, a political game that they can't get done themselves. And that's a dangerous road uh I I think to go as well.

Host: Now before Trump got involved, Cuba was already experiencing blackouts, protests, arrests, record number of people leaving the the island. Was Cuba headed for a major change regardless of the latest rounds of US aggression?

Mark Antwistle: I've always agreed I agreed I've always thought that um uh the history of Cuba over the last 60 years has actually been one of evolution rather than stagnation and they've adapted. The Cubans, you know, dodge and weave and adapt to to circumstances. My experience with them has been that they are not particular. They're not ideological. These are not ideological, you know, totalitarian hardline Soviet style communists. They're actually high pragmatists and they introduced the private sector into Cuba. They dismantled themselves lots of the irritants of the Cuban people uh over the last 15 to 20 years. The um narrative that you'll hear in the United States is one that's really frozen in time um from the 1960s cold war unchanged uh and in many ways highly influenced by this this hardline CubanAmerican community. And uh I mentioned that because I believe that there is an inherent capacity of the Cuban state to evolve itself. The economic um uh uh uh problems that you alluded to are absolutely real. Co did a number on them. They never really recovered from co COVID because they hermetically sealed their economy and shut down the tourism industry and uh uh but uh there's signs of life. The private sector is quite active. I believe it's quite legitimate if if they could change the conversation with the United States and and the issue is the embargo. The embargo is suffocating for them. If that were be were to be removed, I could envisage a scenario where the Cubans would evolve themselves to a to a place that looks quite different than it is now and even kind of a social democratic democracy.

Host: Well, that that brings up when you when you say that I think of nations like China and Vietnam who've introduced capitalist reforms. We talk about special economic zones. We look at China being the billionaire capital of the world here. Why has Cuba taken more of a hardline approach? Is it because of the embargo or is it something internal?

Mark Antwistle: I think it's um I think uh uh I think it's uh fundamentally related to the embargo. I really do. You will hear uh lots of arguments especially in the Cuban the Cuban community outside of Cuba that uh the embargo is irrelevant has nothing to do with it. It's a red herring. It's all the fault of the Cuban state all of the mistakes that they made over the years and and they're ve when they you know veering to socialism etc. They made a mistakes without question 100% all kinds of mistakes of timing uh uh uh that kind of thing. Um uh but the embargo has had a profound influence on on on the Cubans and so I think the embargo has two aspects. One is just the impact on the economy itself which has a lot uh uh prohibited them from doing a number of things. But the deep psychological impact of of believing that they're at war with the United States uh has made them kind of very defensive and and and and and paranoic uh uh about how they see the world. So China did not has nothing like a US embargo against it, right? Um uh even the Venezuelans had nothing like the the comprehensive reach of the US embargo which they've now converted from the old what I call the legacy embargo as we know it to now a full-on blockade since January uh completely it's an attempt to suffocate and strangle the very life out of the Cuban economy. China's never had that. Vietnam, none of these other countries have ever had that. This Caribbean island 90 miles from the coast of the United States has has received a degree of hostile attention and a willingness to attack it economically that no other country on earth has had in my opinion.

Host: If you were briefing Canada's foreign minister tomorrow uh what would be the single most important thing that you'd want them to understand about Cuba in 2026?

Mark Antwistle: That um uh uh number two things. Number one, the Cuban people need need uh supporters on their side. The Cuban people I there's many Cuban people, so I'm a little reluctant to say the Cuban people because there's many many different voices. But in general, I think on the island, not outside, but on the island, I think, you know, most Cubans just want some they want adults in the room and they want somebody to get the economy going. So my advice to the minister, if I was ever asked, was um seek all pathways to assist the Cuban people, be it humanitarian assistance up to and including potentially oil. Cuba is like a canary in the coal mine. So if if we don't find ways to mitigate the impact on the Cuban people, um we're missing key lessons because the current version of the United States can do similar things to us.

Host: All right. Well, we'll have to see if uh Minister Anan takes that advice. Uh Mark, I really appreciate you taking the time. Thank you.

Mark Antwistle: It's great pleasure. You take care.

Host: The Cuban diaspora in Ontario may not be huge, but it has roots going all the way back to the 1800s. I recently hit the road to talk to a man about his journey to Canada and what people on the island are going through now. No, this isn't Cuba. This is Niagara Falls, Ontario, home to Havana Restaurant and Cocktail Lounge and its owners, Dialis and Maria Fif, Guinness World Record holders for the largest mojito ever made. Niagara Falls has a connection to Cuba that goes all the way back to 1824 when poet Joseé Maria Edia visited here and wrote the poem Ode to Niagara. Since then, generations of Cubans have been drawn here, like Abdal Hernandez, a former cab driver and DJ who first came to Canada in the late 90s.

Host: Abdial, you have a lot of memories on Niagara. Used to be a taxi cab driver.

Abdel Hernandez: I was a cab driver, tour guide, limo driver here. When I moved here, we didn't know to do, you know, the immigrant experience.

Host: So, this is the first time for you?

Abdel Hernandez: This is the first time eating here. I've been here at a night time dancing.

Server/Owner: How you doing? Thank you so much. Gracias.

Host: What is something that you recommend?

Server/Owner: The roasted pork.

Abdel Hernandez: Cuba. Everybody eat pork. That's the main meat. Actually, they keep it like the Cuban little there.

Server/Owner: Okay. You want to go really deep in the Cuban style like authentic is a roa.

Host: I think I trust you. Thank you so much. Appreciate it.

Server/Owner: All right.

Host: I let's talk food because for a lot of people, for a lot of Canadians when they think of Cuban food, let's be real, it doesn't get the best reputation.

Abdel Hernandez: Reputation.

Host: Exactly. Because it's predominantly resorts uh that people sample the food at. What do people need to know about real Cuban food?

Abdel Hernandez: Cuban food. We got to go back in history. Uh you know, starting with uh the Cuban indigenous population was completely exterminated by the Spaniards. So our main influence is Spanish food, European food. From 1925 to 1959, a lot of people from China, uh, Koreans and Arabs and Jews moved to Cuba. There is a Cuban food history before 1959 and after 59. So in Cuba, every every aspect of life uh food, culture, literature, music and everything is heavily influenced by the economic and political model that has been in the island prevailing for the last 67 years.

Host: Beautiful stuff here. Look at it. This is traditional. This is to over there we have shrimp co. Delicious. Thank you very much. All right.

Abdel Hernandez: Thank you.

Host: So, you're the eldest in your family.

Abdel Hernandez: Exactly.

Host: How many siblings do you have?

Abdel Hernandez: I got um a brother that is four years younger and a sister who's two years younger. They're both living in West Palm Beach in South Florida.

Host: They're enjoying the sun while you decided Canada and the cold would be the place that you would want to settle in. Why why Canada?

Abdel Hernandez: I got a a very special connection to Canada. Um I came to this country. the people who will help me come here uh were great human beings, great people and um they helped me, how would I say fit into the culture very well. I liked everything I saw about Canada, especially the people.

Host: When you were in Niagara, you were talking about how you know when people get into your cab, they're asking you questions about certain places. You know, tourists that want to know what's that, what's that? Tell me you you you brushed up on your Niagara history. What if you want to get to know a town, if you want to learn the culture, if you want to get the poles of a city, you become a cab driver. So, you get to know people from all walks of life from all especially Niagara being such a tourist uh internationally known spot. You get tourists from all over the world. I'm a counselor, but I'm not getting paid as a counselor. I'm getting paid as a cab driver because people vend their problems and they want your opinion. Tell me a little bit about the community, the Cuban community here in sort of, you know, the greater Toronto area, but southwestern Ontario because it's not a huge population.

Abdel Hernandez: No, it's not a huge population because um it at the time the access for example to places like the United States, it was easier in order to arrive to in Canada as a Cuban, you had to come as a sailor, as a pilot, as a diplomat, as a musician or invited by somebody. But because of the political and economical situation in Cuba, most Cubans will get denied at the Canadian embassy in Havana because they are uh how would you say potential immigrants once they come here they will not go back.

Host: Help me understand a little bit why someone your age um at the time would want to leave Cuba. A lot has changed in that country, but a lot hasn't changed in that country. What what made you originally come out this way?

Abdel Hernandez: My quest for freedom, my models, my sense of right or wrong didn't align with the Cuban system with what I call a dictatorship. A lot of censure, no freedom of speech, no freedom of political affiliation, uh no economic freedom. Uh for example, my salary at the hotel where I used to work was uh 970 pesos uh dollars. But the Cuban government posing as an employment agency would take my salary and give me $15$20 a month. When you put uh economic hardship with lack of human rights and freedoms, it creates a desperate situation because there's no way for you to improve your life in Cuba. There's no way in the island to get out of that situation.

Host: From 2022 to 2023, Cuba saw the biggest wave of immigration in the country's history with around a million people leaving the island. many heading to the US. Now, for a country with a population of 10 million, that's 10% of its population leaving in just two years. One in four Cubans right now are over the age of 60. And that's because many of the people leaving are younger. There have been other waves of immigration, the 60s, the 80s, the '9s, when Abdel left himself. Each wave leaving a mark on the people left behind as well as the people seeking a new life abroad.

Abdel Hernandez: Your family, your friends, everything that emotionally means something to you is left behind. And this great country with all these possibilities. Uh you you don't have an emotional attachment to it. So it's a very difficult process. It was hard. It was tough. But at the end of the day, I'm grateful I did it.

Host: Have you ever been back?

Abdel Hernandez: I I've been back a few times but I haven't been back for about seven years now and the last three times was because of family dynamics. I personally don't enjoy I find it tense uh going back to Cuba. I I I I rather stay in a country where I feel safe.

Host: You were saying your immediate family is in the US.

Abdel Hernandez: Exactly.

Host: It's just you here in Canada with your wife and your kids.

Abdel Hernandez: Exactly.

Host: You have some cousins though uh that you have still in Cuba. Do you keep in touch with them? What's

Abdel Hernandez: keep in touch with them? We just we send them medicine every every month. Since Cuban's uh economy has been decimated, uh the capability of the government which is the only one who provides health services to get the medicines and the treatments for the people uh is is is greatly diminished. So they resort to uh their families abroad. My case is not the only one. Uh if you look at the Facebook page, you see people I need this medicine. I need this medicine. So it's the Cuban diaspora here in Europe, in the States, the ones who actually take care of most of their families. I know people very close to me. I'm not going to get too personal that had to fake diseases and conditions here so they could have access to the drugs to send it to Cuba. I'm talking about life-saving drugs.

Host: Uh what are some of the messages that some of them are sending you? So, I'll I'll try to to locate a couple of them.

Abdel Hernandez: For example, this one says, "My brother, I don't feel or I feel bad about writing you in these circumstances, but I would like economic help. I needed to see a doctor in Havana with the angologist. This is one saludos. I'm very uh embarrassed, but I need $30. Everything here is horrible. Let me let me see if I find another one. A big ho, my brother. I love you always. If you see Cuba now, if you see this now, you will not uh recognize it.

Host: This is someone who unfortunately you said has passed since you've talked to them. Who what did what did they send you a message here?

Abdel Hernandez: Um things have changed everything for bad. If we don't send them money, they they die. They they they die victim of of all those diseases. So in order to keep them fed and as healthy as we can because we also have our challenges here. You know an immigrant has to adapt to the new country has to face the same challenges that the people who live here have for generations and on top of that we also take care of our families.

Host: I'm going to acknowledge and we're having some delicious food while we're talking about sort of the issues in Cuba of people not having food. I imagine that must be hard for you to hear and see that this is your country, that yes, you left, but it's still that you're very proud to be Cuban. Must be hard for you to see the images and the stories that they tell you.

Abdel Hernandez: Uh, it's heartbreaking. Many Cubans when they come from the island, they feel guilty when they walk into a supermarket and they see all the availability of food that there is here, their mind goes back to their friends and relatives back in Cuba and they start crying and they feel guilty because now I got all this and my people down in the island don't have anything. and the government doesn't have the willingness to bring about the necessary reforms to improve the quality of life of people like for example they did in China or Vietnam even when they might I might not agree with their human rights uh records when it comes to freedom of speech, freedom of religion, uh freedom of political affiliation, independent unions and stuff like that. But at least they brought about some economic reforms that improve a little bit the basic quality of life of their own people. the Cuban uh dictatorship or government or regime is very rigid when it comes to that and the people are suffering big time.

Host: I'm Jan. Thanks for watching the rundown. We'd love to know what you think of the show, so send your suggestions and feedback along to rundown.org or as always, leave us a comment on our YouTube page. Until then, I will see you tomorrow.