Good morning everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market open. We are live. Good morning. Good morning. Good morning to everybody. We are here. It is Monday morning and we are officially starting off the last week of November which is kind of crazy because we're headed into December in about seven days and it's even hard to fathom that 2025 is coming to an end but nonetheless 2025 is coming to an end.

I hope everyone had a good weekend. I did not do the Sunday future show last night. I was spending some time with family. Also will not be doing it next week because next week is that Thanksgiving weekend. But we're here. It's going to be a bit of a light week to be honest because Thanksgiving Thursday markets closed. Friday you do have a market open but it closes at 1 p.m. So the volume is going to be very light. You have a lot of people that are obviously traveling and then you have Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday.

So we have the next three days. Hopefully these next three days gets us out of this downtrend that we've been in. If anyone remembers last week, definitely wasn't pretty in terms of the pain that the markets took us through after the best earnings of all time on Nvidia's Q3. But still, the markets were choppy to say the least. So hopefully we can get a little bit of a uptrend this week or at least some stabilization. If anything, I think just reclaiming some of the key levels on the S&P 500, Bitcoin, etc., which tried to kind of make some levels last night. Bitcoin right now is at 86.3. had got up to 88 last night and that's when you saw futures really make a move. Future still green even though Bitcoin still relatively flat from where it was a couple days ago even though you know last week it did hit like 82,000.

So I think just reclaiming some of those levels would be really effective and if we can reclaim some of those levels and set a little bit up of an uptrend it would be exciting for this week. And that's what we got. We don't have any crazy earnings. We don't have any crazy catalyst. I mean, we have some headlines that we'll discuss obviously today that I'm seeing right here, but nothing nothing more for Q3. I mean, we're basically ending out, we've ended out Q3. We've ended out Q3 earnings. We do have Dell and Abercrombie and HP, Workday, Zscaler, Zoom today, some of those earnings. Uh, Clean Spark, Autodesk, but outside of that, nothing too crazy.

And then starting in December, we are ending out the market and it is going to be the final six weeks from today for the market to be able to make any level of a meaningful run. S&P 500 is up about 12% year-to date. If we were to get those three back-to-back-to-back years of 20%, we would need about an 8% move towards the end of the year, which would be in the next six weeks. We're up 12.72% on the S&P 500. Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't. If it does happen, it could really help a lot of our portfolios get back to some levels that it was at in October. if it doesn't and that we we at least stabilize and we don't hopefully go down because I think the biggest fear has been, you know, are we topping or is this, you know, time for the markets to continue to correct? If that doesn't happen, then I think that would be very exciting as well.

All right, so let's get into it again. Good morning. Good morning. Thank you everybody for being here. Yes, please. Just not a repeat of December 2018. And I don't think there will be because we've got some Fed speak this morning. It's a little bit more to the dovish side than we had on Thursday. On Thursday, you had a bunch of Fed presidents come out and just say, "We do not think we're going to be cutting." And that is exemplified through rate probabilities. We're at 77.9, highest in three weeks. Highest in three weeks. This was 30% on Tuesday, last week.

So, the facts that the fact that we got to jump up to 78. You got a lot of new reports saying signaling that Powell wants to cut and so he's just going to have to make sure he has enough votes to be able to get that cut. But if we do get that cut and you know hopefully the markets kind of correct from the sta from the from the downtrend and potentially stabilize and there's a lot of reasons why that we'll talk about today then maybe it could be a really strong strong end of year. Yeah. No longer a coin toss. No longer a coin toss.

All right let's get into it. So we got a bunch of headlines this morning that we'll start off with and then we'll we'll get into some of the other big macro news that we have. Google right here. Wow. 311. I have not looked at Google the entire pre-market. There it is. 311 in the pre-market. It's up 4%.

I mean, there's a bunch of different things that came out on Google over the weekend. A lot of it being praised for Gemini 3.0. You had a lot of independent tech journalists just come out and say Gemini 3.0 is the real deal, and it's really hard to deny it. Uh, you also had that report on Thursday from the information saying that Sam Altman is now becoming worried about the economic stability of OpenAI. not that he's not confident that they're going to win in the long term, but that he did say Google's new model could create some economic headwinds in the short term.

Um, and you know, I think that's why markets are getting a little bit more excited about Google. On top of that, you have Marc Benioff, who I did not expect him to tweet this. I really didn't. I was very like just surprised when he put this out there, but uh CEO of Salesforce, he tweeted that he uses Chat GBT every day and now he's switching to Gemini 3. And the reason I thought this was weird is because like doesn't OpenAI pay Salesforce a ton of money. Like you would you would think to not piss off one of your largest AI customers. But he says, "Holy [ __ ] I've used Chats every day for three years. Just spent two hours on Gemini 3. I'm not going back. The leap is insane. Reasoning speed, images, video, everything is sharper and faster. It feels like the world just changed again.

>> Sundar probably pays Benioff more money than Sam Altman and maybe that had a little bit of a role there. But if he's just speaking from his heart and he's saying Gemini is just that much better. I mean, you're just seeing a lot more people get excited about Google. So there you go. Gemini 3 that is continuing to be a massive tailwind for Google. It's a really big tailwind for the broader AI trade because it's once again proving every people that proving to everybody that AI is very real.

and Google being able to train these models on their own proprietary TPUs and get it out there into the world and now have it have real use cases. That is something that's making Google a lot more attractive. I don't know if Google is the same risk-reward that it was obviously back at 170, 190, even 220. I think Berkshire got in around that 190 to 230 range. I mean, it's not getting super super expensive, but it's definitely not getting dirt cheap anymore. If that if that's something you're looking for, Meta is probably the one that pops up instead.

So, I wonder how long the market, you know, is able to continue giving it a run and giving it a premium. It definitely feels like end of year close by 300 or close over 300 is very possible to get up to 350. You got some 415 analyst targets today. I mean, Wed Bush has 400. If that thing does get into the 350s, it would be quite incredible. It would be more than a double in less than four months. And that's why it's also very exciting for Google.

Uh Novo and Oscar. So we got some news on those two. Oscar unfortunately is down or sorry Novo is down 10% after failed Alzheimer trials results. Novonordisk reported failed results for his Alzheimer's drug trial saying it did not meet its main goal. The study tested semiglutide the same ingredient used in Ozempic and Wegovy to see if it could slow Alzheimer progression. Biomarkers improved in two separate trials but the improvement did not translate into any delay in disease progression. Unfortunately, Novo is getting hit right there.

And Novo was actually making a bit of a run with the Eli Lilly partnership they had last week. The problem is the other parts of their drug pipeline have not been meaningfully uh secured or at least shown to the market that there's a catalyst right there. You can see 9.85% on Novo and that's why that one is getting hit.

Now again, like Alzheimer's is a really hard thing to even get any progress to resolve. So the fact that Novo is trying for this is so important. It's just in the market, you know, if capital is going to companies that they think can actually resolve the issue and the issue doesn't get resolved even in the short term. You know, maybe long term Novo figures it out, you're going to see you're going to see a move to the downside. And that's what we're seeing right here on Novo. That's down 10%.

On the opposite side of the healthcare industry, Oscar is up 20. Wow. It was up 10% last time I checked. Now it's up 20%. All right. So Oscar is up 20%. The reason Oscar is up 20% is because you live with the ACA subsidies and you die with the ACA subsidies.

So based on what Politico is reporting today, and maybe we're going to see an executive order from Trump on this, there was some rumors that he was going to be doing an executive order. Uh Trump is preparing to roll out a new ACA framework per Politico, including a two-year extension of Obamacare subsidies, aka ACA subsidies, that expire next month. The plan would add income gaps on eligibility of roughly 700% of the federal poverty line and introduce minimum premium payments. It also calls for Congress to fund cost sharing reductions and offers an an option for enrollees to take part of their tax credit into a savings account if they switch to a a lower premium plan.

Kind of going into Trump's motto of letting the people choose their healthcare versus letting the institutions kind of choose it for him. He's really been on this idea that independence should be a sort of key part of the healthcare framework and it looks like that's what his plan will be trying to add. Political reporting that the White House is aiming to get ahead of the expected premium spikes as both parties debate how to handle the subsidy deadline.

The other reason this is really important is because if the Democrats somehow agree to this and they are on board with this type of subsidy extension um we might not have a a shutdown in January. So I do not understand all the internal nuances of healthcare. I'm sure there's things with this proposal from Trump that are probably bad for the Democrat's perspective, probably not even the best for the Republicans perspective, but if it's enough of bad on both sides and somewhat good on both sides, maybe it's enough of an agreement to get them to not shut down the government in January.

So, this really is a very important political framework that he's putting out there and hopefully there's some support in Congress around it. But obviously a company like Oscar is going to make a move because if you have an extension of those subsidies, that's where Oscar is going to really like it. 20.7% 13 to 1630 in the pre-market. Again, this stock went from 22 to 13 because of the pain of not knowing what's going to happen with the subsidy. It could easily run back up if there's more clarity. UNH is up 2.29%. Pretty much all of the um healthcare names are getting a bid right here. Elevance right there, that's also up 3.3%. and Oscar again up 20%, UNH up 2.29.

So, we're going to see how that one ends up playing out, but it is nice to at least get some progress on that. And, you know, it follows and you know, maybe I don't know if this is necessarily capitulation by Trump. One could argue that it's just him recognizing that there has to be some way for the Democrats or Republicans to agree on this, which is why he's proposing this type of a framework. But it comes after a relatively friendly meeting with Mr. Murad Momani.

I think the story over the weekend was how um nice Trump and Momani were to each other, which I don't think a lot of people expected. Um but I mean, this is a video that I think highlights exactly how Trump and Momani acted with each other. So, as you can see right here, when the gate closes, there's uh tough tough words and Twitter fingers being thrown at each other. And then when the gate opens, no, they're they're chill. They're really nice. This is exactly what it felt like.

And the reason it felt like that moment Trump where where Momani is asked about, hey, Trump, you know, or Manny, hey, you said he's Trump's a fascist. Like, what do you say about that? And Trump's like, don't worry about it. You can just say yes. You don't even have to explain yourself. I mean, this was surreal seeing this last week. Maybe there is a little bit of a uh maybe there is a little bit of a a sort of populist agenda that both of them have together and that populist agenda is creating the level of excitement that they both had um kind of on on that meeting together.

I mean again you you thought there would be some gotcha moments. You thought there would be moments where they both kind of go back and forth with each other. We saw what Trump did with Zelenskyy back uh back back in February when he was at the Oval Office. I kind of thought it would be something like that and Trump just, you know, crying that he's a communist and Momani saying that Trump's a fascist both to each other's faces and going back and forth, but it was the opposite. It was like, "No, no, no. We both want to focus on affordability for New Yorkers." They both had some really good answers.

And then Trump when he was going on his way to Mar-a-Lago on Saturday, they continued to ask him about it and he said, "No, he likes Momani. He'll only send the National Guard to New York if Momani needs it." Like it was a very amicable meeting. And so maybe we're turning a little bit of a page in terms of how the Republicans and Democrats are going to work together.

And I think Trump probably understands, hey, the affordability stuff needs to get fixed. Um New York, he was he wasn't like super close to winning it in 2024, but there was a lot better chance uh from 2020. So he, you know, he does know that there are more people in New York that do care about him. And part of the reason they voted for him was because of the affordability crisis. And number three, he he Trump probably knows they can't survive another shutdown. If we get another shutdown, I mean, there's a world where the midterms go the opposite direction for the Republicans. So, maybe Trump is trying to get ahead of that and start working with the Democrats and at least getting on their good side in some capacity so that we don't have to have another shutdown in January, which obviously would be beneficial for for the entire country.

okay, so let's talk about um Nvidia. So I mean last week Nvidia had one of the best earnings ever. I've done a lot of thinking over the weekend to try to understand a lot more about what's going on with Nvidia. I have concluded I think the sell off on Nvidia is really stupid and I think if we see a more substantial selloff once again into that I mean we got 172 for a little bit last week. If we get anywhere near 175 the low 170s again which I don't think we will given some of the price action but then again that could happen any second if the market flips. I think Nvidia is a buy.

I didn't buy any Nvidia last week. I was trying to really collect my thoughts on like, hey, is this, you know, a simple thing to buy? Is there something I'm overlooking? And it really like the only argument that's there is the GPU depreciation stuff, which by the way, the guy who started that argument, Michael Burry had a announcement yesterday that we'll talk about. And it doesn't feel like that announcement is enough to be super super scared of what's going on with Nvidia.

I mean, if you believe in Gemini 3.0, know if you believe in Waymo, you believe in FSD, you believe in humanoid robotics, you believe in that overall thesis that is there, it's just very very very hard to be like, I'm going to fade Nvidia. And I think we're going to be laughing about this a year or two years from now with Nvidia closer to a 7 to 8 trillion dollar market cap. Bank of America, by the way, reiterated their buy target at 275.

And their argument was just like people should not be as concerned as they are. Much of the market concern is centered on working capital trends, but Bank of America said worries about rising receivables inventories are misplaced. They wrote, "It's not the absolute receivable number. It's them compared to sales, noting that day sales outstanding declined to 53 days versus 54 days."

On inventories, which a lot of people have been concerned about, Bank of America explained that Nvidia scale and shipments of more complex systems, including the Blackwell, GB200, and GB300 MBL72 racks. That quote, "We would be more worried if Nvidia inventory wasn't growing fast given the six-month deployment cycle for Blackwell class platforms." aka they're saying inventory is going up because demand is still outstripping supply and they need to be able to backstop that inventory in order to catch up with that supply.

Nvidia remains compelling at 24* 18x 20 calendar year 226 or 27 PE versus 40% sales in EPS growth urging investors to ignore quarterly noise.

I don't know. I I I mean I obviously there's an argument that you know the Google TPUs are out there, Amazon is their training tips. actually watched a couple videos this weekend just trying to understand more about the the custom ASICs that some of these other hyperscalers are deploying and those are real things they will probably put some margin pressure on Nvidia eventually but

based on the data we're getting I mean and based on the gross margin expansion that Nvidia guided for it is very very very hard to be super scared about what's going on with Nvidia and again that 450 billion uptick in the reversal that we had in the span of basically two hours uh that felt like a lot of people started to get concerned about inventories or accounts receivables or GPUs depreciation or something that just made the market a bit more upset and then that caused the sort of systemic selling that we saw along with the Fed speak that was a bit more hawkish. If those concerns aren't real, I mean again, Nvidia doesn't have to shoot up to 10 trillion tomorrow, but the idea that Nvidia has to go down to three trillion and become, you know, one of those companies that uh it stay it stayed at in terms of market cap over the past year instead of sort of sustaining the breakout even though they're growing at the level that they're growing at.

I mean, what happens if Nvidia continues to guide for upwards of 35% growth next year? They're going to grow another 50 60% next quarter. It's like at some point you would also like the the market wants to put capital to use where they know that it will continue to grow and Nvidia is not slowing down the growth. So I I don't know if we get back into the low 170s. I just feel like it's it's worth taking another nibble. I didn't nibble last week, but I just couldn't find enough of a compelling reason over the weekend to be that scared of Nvidia.

This was uh David Friedberg on the All-In podcast this weekend explaining why the GPU argument by Michael Burry was not necessarily correct. And I actually think Michael Burry's got this wrong. And so what Michael Burry is saying is that all of these hyperscalers have extended their depreciation schedule or the useful life of their data centers by roughly 2x which cuts the operating costs in half when they report it in earnings. And so it's making their earnings inflate. So he's claiming they're cooking the books.

Google first made this change in Q1 of 21 where they said the servers are now going from 3 to four years. The chart shows the combination of servers and networking equipment. Separately in 2021, Google took networking equipment from three to five years and then in 2023 they took it from five to six years. And so this is a result of this effort where they went in and did an analysis. So what happened? What happened in the data centers is that the data centers transitioned from being primarily data storage and data transfer systems where you would use hard drives and RAM and memory to store data and then transmit it back out to being data processing centers because of the AI boom.

So as AI became more important in the data center, more of the dollars that are going into data centers were allocated towards chips from data storage which initially was hard drives. And then suddenly when you put these processors in to process the data to do AI, that's the majority of the spend and the majority of the energy is going towards the processors. I made some calls and I checked around with some other friends and everyone says the same thing that these seven and 8-year-old TPUs and GPUs that are sitting in the data centers are still being used and they're being used at 100% utilization. So that actually justifies and validates the depreciation schedule being much longer versus shorter.

And I think that's why uh you have some people calling BS on this argument about depreciation. It's not that it's an argument that shouldn't be explored. But you know, and Jensen said it on the call, if you have A100 chips that Nvidia shipped six years ago that are still being utilized in these data centers, then the depreciation schedule on them is not understated to the fact that it would overstate the earnings, which means Burry, you know, might not have this argument correct.

This other headline, by the way, is why Google's pumping in the premarket. NATO and Google Cloud signed a multi-million dollar deal for AI enabled sovereign cloud. Jensen's been talking about a long time for this sovereign AI to continue becoming a bigger deal. Sovereign AI is not only going to need independent countries and sovereign nations uh that have their own GPUs that have their own data centers, but they're also going to need their own cloud computing. And so Google winning a multi-million exact number, but multi-million dollar deal for NATO. Obviously that is an important deal and that deal probably will expand as NATO's use cases expand and as those use cases expand you know they will probably buy more cloud compute from Google.

The big announcement that Mike Burry Michael Burry uh was going to make um it's out. It is officially a Substack. He is joining Substack. So that is it. That's the big November 25th announcement that he's been teasing. It's $380 a year to subscribe to his Substack.

It it is it is kind of funny that he he went through all of this just to launch a Substack, which look, I like I'm in the content creation game. I I I love the ability to express ideas and put it out there and hopefully create compelling stories and interesting thoughts and ideas. It's just I don't know. He went through a lot of teasing to just start a Substack. Like you thought this guy was going to like expose something crazy about Nvidia on November 25th. It's like no, it's a it's a Substack, which is fine. Maybe he doesn't want to uh manage money anymore.

Also, by the way, if you're so convicted on your thesis on AI being a bubble, wouldn't you want to manage a lot of money and go short and then make a ton of money? Like, isn't that the whole like, do you really have that much conviction if you're not willing to use client capital and go short like you did in 2008? Because that's how he made his name, right? He used client capital and those clients didn't even want him to use their capital, but he had full discretion over it. And he went short and he ended up being right.

So you have a lot of these analysts coming out and just saying, "Hey, you know, this AI bubble talk, it's like important to listen to it, but it is not the defining factor of what's going on in the economy." Take a look at Bloomberg's update with ETFs. Last week, $8 billion a day of net inflows continue to come in. Vanguard was three billion of the eight billion a day, doubling their normal take, now 350 billion year to date. VOO which again is just the broader market 120 billion on the year. So in the midst of all of the selling last week all of the whether it was algorithmic selling retail panic selling systematic selling institutions were buying.

And that's what Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley says. He says, "The current stock market pressure is a tactical correction caused by Fed liquidity jitters, not fundamental deterioration. The damage under the surface suggests the correction is nearing its end. Wilson remains highly bullish, expecting the Fed to cut rates and forecasting 17% EPS growth in 2026.

Fundstrat's Mark Newton, and here's his argument for what to expect towards the end of November. Everybody, uh, look, I think it's less about the day-to-day volatility and more about the fact that we've seen a meaningful divergence between technology and the rest of the market. And that started, you know, right around July. So tech had gone straight higher whereas the rest of the market had largely gone sideways and not participated. As to what's to come, you know, my thinking is it's going to be a little choppier. Uh it's certainly an unorthodox uh time for markets to be going down down or and or sideways, but you know, a lot of it is about lining up, you know, the expectations of when the next Fed cut is. They say the market hates uncertainty. That's true with regards to, you know, whether or not we're going to cut or not. it's tough for me to say it's going to be off to the races until we start to see more evidence of more and more sectors starting to participate in this rally and not just technology.

Fundamentally, and this is what kind of the theme has been all morning as we've been looking at to some of these equity analysts. Fundamentally, it's not really um a deteriorating story. The story seems to be more just, you know, you know what I thought also happened last week, I think exhaustion of the AI trade was taking place last week. And as a result of that exhaustion, you just had markets kind of take their profits and sell off. And obviously the Fed talk with the with the lack of rate cuts was a big deal. But that exhaustion will eventually turn into money that wants to find a place to go to work. And when you have Meta trading at 19 times earnings, I mean, that might be an easy place for the market to get excited for.

Uh, Grab's up 3% in the pre-markets. Main update on this for those that have been following the saga. It looks like GoTo is officially getting rid of their current CEO. Remember the current CEO? This is the guy that SoftBank wanted to get rid of. Why did SoftBank want to get rid of him? Because they want Grab to acquire GoTo. Soft Bank has a stake in GoTo and Grab. They've been wanting this merger for the past couple years now. Uh it hasn't happened. We are getting the closest we've ever been to making this happen. And in order to make it happen, you had to get rid of the current CEO who was um like basically opposing the takeover. And it looks like he's gone now.

We did get an update from Bitmine BMR. They did buy more Ethereum. They now officially have 3% of the total Ethereum network, 3.62 million tokens is what they have and they continue to buy. They continue to buy. Tom Lee said, "Bit has now acquired 3% of the Ethereum network. In the past week, Bitmine acquired 69,822 tokens. The made in America validator network will be the best-in-class solution offering secure staking and deployed early next year.

Baba is up 5%. Okay, so the headline on Baba last week was that they released a chatbt competitor for consumers and uh that ended up doing very well. I think the headline right here is Baba's Qwen chatbot exceeds 10 million downloads. Yeah, that's the headline this morning. Qwen is the name of their competitor with Chad PD. 10 million downloads in the first week of public beta. Wow.

Some macro stats. Uh Goldman Sachs yesterday said US pensions are modeled to buy 13 billion of US equities for month end, the first big estimate since April. So, you got US pensions that are coming in to start buying uh a bit more. You had Fed's Waller, who is being more dovish since the last Fed meeting. available data suggests not much change. Inflation not a big problem with the labor market we being as weak as it is. And he continues to affirm the argument that he cares more about the labor market than inflation.

Despite the massive amount of money being made by the United States of America, hundreds of billions of dollars as a direct result of tariffs being charged to other countries, the full benefit of the tariffs have not yet been calculated and that many of the buyers of goods and products in order to avoid paying the tariffs in the short term. Their stock is up by purchasing far more inventory than they can use in order to avoid the tariff the tariff payments in the short term. That heavy inventory purchases now however wearing thin and soon tariffs will be paid on everything they apply to. These payments will be record setting and put our nation at a new and unprecedented course. we are already seeing the hottest country anywhere in the world. Basically, Trump kind of making the argument that the tariffs are going to continue resulting in uh something beneficial.

Oh boy. Did did the Chinese president really just say this? Xi just said, "Return of Taiwan to China is a key part of post-war international order." I'm surprised markets aren't fully pricing in that statement right now. Dude, why did this guy Every time he talks about Taiwan, it's not really the best thing to say. We just got that quote right now.

Oh wow, we got another headline. Amazon to invest up to 50 billion to expand AI and supercomputing infrastructure for US government agencies. Yeah, just got that right here officially. Let me pull up that press release. Wow, that could be part of the reason.

Uh, key takeaways, AWS will build and deploy the first ever AI and high performance computing purpose-built infrastructure for the US government. New investment will add nearly 1.3 gigawatts of compute capacity across AWS top secret, AWS secret, and AWS government cloud. Expands access to AWS's trusted infrastructure and comprehensive AI services to help government agencies advance AI leadership.

Yeah, bro, what are we talking about here? What are we talking about? This stuff is not slowing down. 50 billion for government cloud. Today, Amazon announced an an investment up to 50 billion to expand AI and supercomputing capabilities for Amazon web services, US government customers. This investment will enable government agencies to accelerate discovery and decision-making by integrating simulation and modeling data with AI agencies can achieve in hours what once took weeks and months through autonomous experimental steering and realtime feedback loops. Okay, this matters. This deeply, deeply, deeply matters. And I think the market immediately seeing that move is getting excited.

Dude, I think Mike Wilson's analysis makes the most sense. Like I really do think his analysis makes the most sense. And I think that's why you're leading to a lot of these analysts coming out and being more bullish. His argument for being bullish is very similar to Tom Lee which is that he thinks a recession already happened in April and they think a new bull market is beginning.

And again, I think a lot of that makes sense with Wilson's analysis, which is as long as the Fed comes through with liquidity and the capex doesn't go down, this is a bull market, you ignore all the noise, if you think the Fed's going to be easing and the hyperscalers are going to be spending.

that's another thing I was thinking about over the weekend. I was like, we still don't know all the good things that could happen even if it takes years for it to manifest itself. How do you sell off the sector AI that is leading to those new opportunities? And then how do you sell off the winners in that sector like Nvidia that are the lynch pin of any of that stuff becoming real? So it comes down to a qualitative understanding of if you believe that like drug discovery is going to be better in the next five years because if it is Nvidia matters if it doesn't then I guess you sell Nvidia. But if you have a more optimistic view it feels like you should be long those names

You're probably not going to like my answer, but it doesn't matter be to me because ultimately the market's going to tell the Fed what to do. I mean, that's my general that's always been my view. People hate it, but like I'm a markets person, okay? The markets dominate. The markets tell investors what to do, right? So the markets will, you know, kind of force their hand. If it if the markets believe they need more liquidity, they will force the Fed's hand. If the market believes it needs more rate cuts, it will force their hand because we become so financialized at this point, right? The Fed now is basically obligated to make sure that we have financial stability to some degree.

Yeah, I think it's one and the same. I mean I mean obviously the investment in AI is on the premise that it will lead to higher productivity, adoption and all that works. works. I mean that's the way technology investment works. So you you're not yeah these stocks are not going to work. The leaders aren't going to work if the foundation itself isn't being supported by the technology investment. We assume that is going to happen in 2026. That is part of our thesis. Okay. But it's not without risk.

Well, I mean this is a natural evolution of any capital spending cycle. There's always going to be a challenge on the return you're going to get. And this is, you know, we've seen this multiple times. We saw it a year ago. We've talked about this, you know, multiple times. In July of 2024, that was the peak in sort of the and AI capbacks deceleration. So, this is an eb and flow. What I what I like to look at is AI spenders. How are those stocks reacting? Is the market enforcing discipline on the AI spenders, which then trickles down into the the capex beneficiaries. But we think this is going to happen. The money's been raised now. So, you know, like the debt marketers are now involved and so that money is not going to sit on these balance sheets. It's going to be spent.

The question is what's the payoff look like and what's the timing of that payoff. We think some we'll see some of that in 2026 2027 and and so now it's just this transition. You're you're kind of trading back and forth. So I want to make it clear we think there's a broadening out. That doesn't mean that all the AI stuff gets killed and everything else does really really well. It it can work in harmony. In fact, it needs to work in harmony to some degree.

All right, that's it for me. Thank you everybody. Appreciate everyone being careful. We'll be live on the market close. Again, we don't have a ton of earnings this week. Uh we will just try to see if this market momentum can continue. And then we got Thanksgiving on Thursday. So, if we can kind of have a good next three days, reclaim some of these levels, that would be important. We'll see if there is any of these Trump executive orders later throughout the day. He's scheduled to do some, but sometimes it doesn't always happen. So, we'll keep everybody updated on that and then I'll be back on the uh on the market close.