芬兰总统亚历山大·斯图布：谁来决定世界新秩序？

Alexander Stubb: Democracies have not been able to cope with social media and with modern technology yet and they're losing the struggle. We also see big tech companies in many ways being more powerful than states. So you can ask the question, you know, is Anthropic or is Facebook more powerful than Norway and Finland?

Nicolai Tangen: Hi everyone, I'm Nicolai Tangen, the CEO of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund. And today I'm in really good company with Alexander Stubb, the president of Finland. Finland has 5 and a half million people, a 1,340 km border with Russia, one of the happiest countries in the world nine years in a row. It punches far above its weight and so does President Stubb. When Europe needs a way through to the White House, Alexander is often the one who gets the call. Earlier this year, Alexander wrote a book about how the old world fell apart and who decides what comes next. I've really been looking forward to this. Alexander, be welcome.

Alexander Stubb: Oh, nice to be with you, Nikolai.

Nicolai Tangen: In short, what's the most important message in your book?

Alexander Stubb: The most important message is that the world order is changing much like it changed in 1918, 1945 and 1989. And the ones that are going to decide what it looks like is going to be the global south and the choices between multilateral norms institutional order and cooperation versus multipolar transactional chaos and conflict.

Nicolai Tangen: Why is the south going to decide the future?

Alexander Stubb: Because they basically have the size and scale to do that in terms of population, economy and technology. So the end of western dominance is over. But I don't think the east is going to dominate either. So, we're going to start getting a whole bunch of new players. And my vested interest coming from a small country is that it would be a multilateral system based on the UN. But that means that the UN has to be reformed so that the south has agency in it.

Nicolai Tangen: The African leaders say that we in Europe we just come and wag the finger whilst the Chinese come with the capital. Is that a worry for you, that Chinese influence in the south?

Alexander Stubb: Yeah, I mean definitely the Chinese have played the long strategic game much better than we Europeans. You know the good old saying goes that a western leader came to an African country, landed at an airport which was built by the Chinese, drove down a highway which was built by the Chinese and then gave a press conference in a hotel built by the Chinese saying that you should not be cooperating with the Chinese. And I think that's sometimes the mentality. So my take is that we need a more dignified foreign policy. We need to be more humble. We need to wag the finger a little bit less and do a little bit more concrete cooperation.

Nicolai Tangen: You say that the West mistakes wasn't bad intent. It's just that we just saw the world through our own eyes. So what did we get wrong?

Alexander Stubb: Well, I think it's quite normal. I mean, we're all prisoners of our own identity. I mean, you and I are Scandinavians or Nordics. We're Europeans. We're very western oriented and we've been born or at least had our professional life in sort of a post-cold war order. So that sort of skews what we think about the world and what we now have to understand that in order for you to be able to survive in this new world, you need to change. What we got wrong was this sort of innate arrogance that history ended and the west would kind of dominate and everyone would follow. And that's not the case anymore. You look at the Gulf States which are extremely prosperous. You look at India which is now the most populated country in the world. You look at some of the big players in Africa like Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt. You look at Brazil and Argentina and suddenly you realize that it's not the west that dominates anymore. And of course an additional spice to this comes with the new US administration which has quite a different approach to multilateralism than many of us in the west in general.

Nicolai Tangen: And some additional spice from the fourth power, and you and Mark Carney wrote this summer that we now have this incoming technology block built on compute, data, and AI. And so how is this going to pan out? Is that now the most powerful of the four, you think?

Alexander Stubb: Yeah, it's not really a fourth block as such. I mean, if I would rename my book, it would be the rectangle of power because I had the global west led by the US, but I think now out of choice and very proudly the US would not want necessarily to lead that block anymore. So I would call us perhaps the global north. But Mark and I think obviously that technology, especially AI, is going to change everything. It changes the way in which we work in the economy. It changes politics and the way in which we communicate. It changes war and the way in which we conduct it. And it changes science and the way in which we are as human beings. But of course this is about access. So my argument is that we should see this more as a win-win not as a transaction because AI of course if you want to dominate you need two things: you need compute so kind of data and capacity to handle it, and secondly you need energy or more specifically electricity. And I think we need to have a balance between the east, west, north, and south on this and think that this is not a game with you know only US versus China, it's much more complicated than that.

Nicolai Tangen: How are democracies adopting to the new technology?

Alexander Stubb: Badly. And the reason is that, you know, democracy as such was originally created say in the 1700s by the likes of John Locke and Montesquieu and Rousseau and Hobbes and others to be very slow and cumbersome, you know, sort of back deals and you had a lot of time to respond to things. And you know the US constitution was basically created in secret as a compromise. And you don't have that luxury anymore; you have to react to everything all the time. And coming back to the book, the original version actually of the working title was "Digital Democracy or Digital Dictatorship". And I think democracies have not been able to cope with social media and with modern technology yet and they're losing the struggle. We also see big tech companies in many ways being more powerful than states. So you can ask the question, you know, is Anthropic or is Facebook more powerful than Norway and Finland? And I think it's a legitimate question and political science can't necessarily give you the answer.

Nicolai Tangen: Well, we see it in financial markets. The market capitalization of some of these companies are bigger than countries. Do you think AI will be an equalizer or do you think it will amplify injustice?

Alexander Stubb: It can go both ways and that depends on the choices that we make in the upcoming years. I mean if you look at the mix between biology and technology then it can really be a destabilizing factor which will increase injustices. I mean, imagine that, you know, rich people will live longer and will become much more clever than other people, so that you basically have two different types of human beings, homo sapiens. But the positive thing about it is that AI can be a great equalizer. You know, you take education or health care in some parts of Africa where you don't have access to teachers or doctors, and suddenly through AI and large language models you can get a world-class teacher or medical diagnosis. So it depends on how we regulate and steer it.

Nicolai Tangen: Well, another person, Bill Gates, he is advocating creating a domestic and international framework for dealing with AI. What are your thoughts about that?

Alexander Stubb: Oh, I definitely agree with that. But the problem is that most of the institutional architecture that we have created is for states, not for technology or tech platforms. Tech companies operate across borders and create their own rules. And this sort of technological revolution is quite different from previous ones. The first industrial revolution was steam, the second electricity, the third ICT, and now we are in the fourth. Each technological shift reshuffles geopolitical power, creating new winners and losers.

Nicolai Tangen: Given how we now embed AI into weapons and cars and batteries and research and into everything pretty much, do you really think it's feasible to get the US and China to cooperate on this?

Alexander Stubb: I think out of necessity, yes. So that's why it's kind of good that there's a certain balance of power here with critical minerals and capacity to compute and the power of the chips and then the companies. Both sides realize that if this goes completely wild, whether it's autonomous weapons or destabilizing societies, nobody wins. During the Cold War, the US and the Soviet Union were able to agree on nuclear non-proliferation because the alternative was mutual destruction. With AI, you need a similar guardrail to make sure that things don't run astray.

Nicolai Tangen: Moving on to the new order then, you call your answer values-based realism. What does that mean exactly?

Alexander Stubb: Well, it means two things. One is that you stay true to your values. So in your case, in my case, Finland, Norway, the Nordics, West and Europe, it's probably about democracy, freedom, rule of law, human rights, and a rules-based system. You don't abandon those. But the second part is realism. You have to realize that the vast majority of the world does not share our system and doesn't want to copy it. And if you approach them with a binary, lecturing mindset, you will get nowhere. Realism means you engage with countries that have different political systems, whether it's on climate, trade, or peace, because in order to get results, you need compromises.

Nicolai Tangen: If you have all these ad hoc coalitions with a different set of countries for every problem, how is that going to work in practice?

Alexander Stubb: It's going to be extremely messy and we're starting to see that already. You kind of have three options if I may. First one is that we sort of continue with this almost chaotic transactional world where we see an increase in conflicts like Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine or what's happening in the Middle East, with no global rules. The second option is that we revitalize and reform the multilateral institutions, primarily the UN, and give the Global South real agency. The third option is somewhere in between: fragmented coalitions and regional transactional deals. It is messy, but pragmatic engagement is better than complete breakdown.

Nicolai Tangen: Alex, let's zoom in a bit on Finland. Why is it such a happy place?

Alexander Stubb: Well, you know, I don't know. I think if you start from Maslow's hierarchy, you could say that we have a lot of the basics in life in order much like one would have in Norway or in Sweden. High trust, low corruption, functional society, good education, equality, and closeness to nature. But don't expect people to walk around the streets and smile all the time. It's a deep sense of contentment rather than external euphoria.

Nicolai Tangen: Happiness is very subjective, but the best way to measure it is to actually ask people, how happy are you from 1 to 10, you know, there is no better way to measure it. When you look at it, what's the biggest threat to this happy state in Finland?

Alexander Stubb: The biggest threat would be polarization and division. The moment you lose social cohesion and the high level of institutional trust, the model starts to erode. And of course, externally, geopolitical instability and hybrid threats on our doorstep.

Nicolai Tangen: In Finland, you have this special split between the prime minister who does the domestic things and the president. You do the foreign policy and the military. Do you also have influence on the domestic scene and topics?

Alexander Stubb: No, not really. Not constitutionally. But I guess as what we would call in Finnish a "value leader", the president always has a voice and that voice is quite often a megaphone. But in terms of daily domestic policies, that is firmly the territory of the prime minister and government.

Alexander Stubb: In the sense that the president really is focused on foreign security and defense policy. And I'm also the commander-in-chief. Whereas the prime minister is focused on domestic issues and the EU. So the prime minister deals with a lot more issues on a daily basis than I do and I think that's quite good.

Nicolai Tangen: Is the prime minister ever envious that you get so much traction on the international scene?

Alexander Stubb: No. You see, I've been prime minister myself. So I've always thought that it's extremely important that the president cooperates hip-to-hip with a prime minister. So for instance, yesterday we sat down together. The roles of the PM and the president are quite different, and our common goal is to maximize Finland's foreign policy impact.

Nicolai Tangen: I guess in a way it's like if you run the sovereign wealth fund, everybody wants you to succeed too because they all want to make more money. It's a bit of the same thing.

Alexander Stubb: Yeah. I guess you could say that the president is the chairman of the board and the prime minister is the CEO, and then you can figure out yourself who has more pressure.

Nicolai Tangen: After the cold war most countries in Europe cut defense spending but you kept it up. What did you see that the other people didn't see?

Alexander Stubb: Well first of all we didn't join NATO after the cold war. And unfortunately I was one of the few that advocated Finnish NATO membership back then. I felt that we should have integrated into the Western security structures. But because we chose not to join NATO, we had to take full responsibility for our own defense. We maintained general conscription, a wartime troop strength of 280,000, 900,000 in reserve, the strongest artillery in Western Europe, and a cutting-edge air force. So when we eventually joined NATO, we brought immense military capability—more than most member states in NATO themselves.

Nicolai Tangen: Is NATO in a crisis today?

Alexander Stubb: No, I think NATO is in a transition. Looking at the long arc of the alliance: NATO 1.0 was the Cold War territorial defense; NATO 2.0 was the post-Cold War out-of-area crisis management; and now we have entered NATO 3.0. NATO 3.0 means going back to its roots of deterrence and territorial defense, but with a much more European NATO. Europe must take greater responsibility for its own defense. The US is pivoting towards the Indo-Pacific, but maintaining the transatlantic bond is also in America's vested interest.

Nicolai Tangen: And more European NATO, how does that change NATO? What is it? What's different?

Alexander Stubb: Well, it means that the NATO countries in Europe take more responsibility for their conventional forces, and of course France now also discussing the nuclear umbrella. It means that European allies must provide the bulk of the conventional defense capabilities in Europe, boost defense spending well beyond 2%, and ensure procurement and ammunition production. I am quite confident that we will do it.

Nicolai Tangen: We are already seeing cables cut and drones over airports and so on. Are we already in some kind of war?

Alexander Stubb: Well, it depends on the definition of war. I always say that the line between war and peace has been blurred. The best way to differentiate is that on one hand you have kinetic, full-scale warfare, which is what Russia is brutally doing in Ukraine. On the other hand, you have hybrid warfare: cyber attacks, sabotage of undersea pipelines and cables, weaponized migration, disinformation on social media, and GPS jamming. This is designed to destabilize our societies beneath the threshold of war, but I wouldn't call this Article 5 activity yet.

Nicolai Tangen: I believe you're just back from Kyiv. How do you think the Ukrainian war will end?

Alexander Stubb: I think it'll end well for Ukraine. And I've said from the beginning that in the theory of war, if a big power attacks a smaller neighbor and fails to achieve its strategic objectives, it has effectively lost. Ukraine has defended its sovereignty and its European identity. Putin wanted to Russify Ukraine, but he pushed it permanently into the West, towards the EU and NATO. At the end of the day, there will be a peace agreement, but it must be a just peace that provides Ukraine with credible security guarantees.

Nicolai Tangen: When do you think it will be?

Alexander Stubb: I can't give you a timeline of it. We've had many different deadlines throughout. The Americans are working very hard, we are in continuous contact with the US administration, and the Ukrainians are showing immense resilience. But right now, we need to prepare for a very difficult, cold winter in Ukraine. Russia is systematically targeting their civilian energy infrastructure, so our primary focus must be delivering air defense systems, energy equipment, and unwavering military aid.

Nicolai Tangen: What would need to happen on the military side for you to say that, hey, now we can relax a bit in Finland?

Alexander Stubb: I don't think we'll ever relax, you know. But we're quite calm about it. In my capacity as commander-in-chief, I have access to all the intelligence and defense data, and Finland is extremely secure. But looking at the broader picture, does Europe lack leadership right now?

Alexander Stubb: It's a really difficult question because we have this almost illusion of a European structure being US-like, led by a single president and strong centralized executive. Europe is a union of 27 democratic sovereign states. That institutional structure means our decision-making will always look a little bit messy and deliberate, but when crises hit, Europe consistently pulls together.

Nicolai Tangen: Are you more or less of a believer in Europe than you were 5 years ago?

Alexander Stubb: Much more. And the reason I say this is that I have never seen Europe more united than it is right now. Having studied and worked in European politics for decades, the response to the pandemic, the transition away from Russian fossil fuels, and the united stance against Russian aggression have proven European resilience. External threats have forged a remarkably strong European unity.

Nicolai Tangen: Should Norway become a member?

Alexander Stubb: You know, I'd love to give you an answer directly and I have it in my head, but it's not my business. One of my best friends in politics is Jonas Gahr Støre, the Prime Minister of Norway. Whether Norway joins the EU is entirely and independently up to the Norwegian people to decide.

Nicolai Tangen: You call Brexit amputating your leg with no medical reason. Should the UK return to the EU, do you think?

Alexander Stubb: I would love for the United Kingdom to join the European Union, but probably the more realistic path right now is to bring the United Kingdom as close to the European Union as possible on key strategic issues like security, energy, and trade.

Nicolai Tangen: What do you think? You think they'll join the EU?

Alexander Stubb: I think they'll be as close to the EU as possible and that's what pragmatic leaders are working on right now. Again, when you feel that your economic and security position is threatened in a fractured world, close cooperation is simply common sense.

Nicolai Tangen: You're famous for your golfing with Trump. What is it with Trump that Europeans don't understand?

Alexander Stubb: Well, I don't think there's that much to understand. You have to understand that President Trump is one of the most consequential presidents in American history. You might like it or dislike it, but you have to recognize that Trump is very effective in what he does.

Nicolai Tangen: What is it that makes him so effective in your mind?

Alexander Stubb: It's difficult to say, you know, I really don't know. Not as a political scientist or as a president. And it's probably not my job to analyze it either. I try to work with President Trump and the United States administration on issues which are of mutual interest.

Alexander Stubb: So on NATO and on defense, we have a Defense Cooperation Agreement. There are thousands of American Marines and soldiers training in Arctic conditions with our armed forces. That is concrete cooperation based on shared security interests.

Nicolai Tangen: Is kind of golf the new sauna?

Alexander Stubb: I think diplomacy has many different paths. A lot of people don't understand that diplomacy is, on one hand, formal state-to-state relations. But on the other hand, it's also deeply personal. And you can't separate the two. Foreign policy is about three things: values, interests, and power. We have clear values and interests in Finland, but we need to leverage relationships to project power. My job is to represent Finland effectively, knowing who we are and understanding our place.

Nicolai Tangen: If you get him into the sauna, who do you bring along?

Alexander Stubb: I'd probably take Jonas Gahr Støre, the Prime Minister of Norway. Jonas doesn't play golf, so I can't take him to the golf course, but we work brilliantly together. Having a proper Finnish sauna in Lapland with cross-country skiing—that would be an unbeatable setup.

Nicolai Tangen: Now, you mentioned people and superpower. When I researched you before this podcast, I spoke to a lot of people who all claimed that they're very close to you. What is the key to establishing those relationships?

Alexander Stubb: I don't know, I can't give you a definitive answer. My hero and my mentor is my father. He's 91 now, was the CEO of the Finnish Ice Hockey Association and an elite athlete. He taught me to be genuinely curious about other people and treat everyone with equal respect. And the other thing that keeps me grounded is reading.

Nicolai Tangen: What do you read?

Alexander Stubb: I read a lot. I read an array from normal daily news feeds to columns, editorials, and opinions—Financial Times, The Economist, Foreign Affairs. I also read non-fiction books on geopolitics, history, and philosophy. My rule is that I must spend more time reading books each day than looking at my smartphone, which I try to keep under an hour.

Nicolai Tangen: But you also exercise a lot more than 1 hour a day, right? I mean, you are like a total maniac on the exercise front, aren't you?

Alexander Stubb: Not that much anymore. When I was a little bit freer and training for big races, I really put in the hours. But my rule of thumb is: one hour of physical exercise every day. It's not about vanity; it is the ultimate way to decompress, keep your mind clear, and stay physically agile.

Nicolai Tangen: You still do your triathlons?

Alexander Stubb: I do, but more for training purposes and fitness. I do sprint or standard distances rather than the full Ironman, which requires two hours of daily training. I mix swimming, cycling, running, and cross-country skiing, which keeps me energetic and awake.

Alexander Stubb: I mean, I would say 58—that's the prime, you know.

Nicolai Tangen: I fully agree, 58 is the new 20. When you look at your life, what's been your biggest personal failure?

Alexander Stubb: It's a question that I'm quite often asked and I mull around it, but I've come to the conclusion that it was probably my time as prime minister. My mistake was taking things too personally when I was PM. Early on, you want everyone to like you, and in politics that is a recipe for disaster. I learned that you cannot take political criticism personally. You need to develop thick skin, stay grounded, and focus on the big mission rather than the daily controversy.

Nicolai Tangen: Yeah, it's interesting because politics is just getting tougher and tougher. What is something about you that most people don't know?

Alexander Stubb: I make really good banana pancakes! It's my favorite breakfast. I can't have too many of them because I need to watch my cholesterol, but the recipe is super simple: mash bananas, add two eggs, a bit of oatmeal, and fry it up. Banana pancakes is my specialty.

Nicolai Tangen: Very good. And Alex, in addition to that, what would be your advice to young people today?

Alexander Stubb: Well, I give the same advice that my parents gave me when I was young, and that I have given to my children, who are now 24 and 22. It's essentially four things: Dream, Believe, Work Hard, and Succeed. Dream big and set your sights high; believe in yourself even when others doubt you; work harder than anyone else because there are no shortcuts; and when you achieve success, stay humble, enjoy the moment, and give back. I hope these four pieces of advice are useful for youngsters and slightly older folk alike.

Nicolai Tangen: Alex, I think that's a beautiful, beautiful place to end. Big thank you for taking the time.

Alexander Stubb: Thank you very much, Nikolai. It was my pleasure. Really hope you liked the episode. If you did, please like it, subscribe, and put on the notification.