Hi everybody, I'm Steve Paikin and we are here in New Market, Ontario at the Upper Canada Mall to kick off season 3 of the program we call TVO Today Live. Our subject this time, should snowbirds skip going to the warmer United States this winter?

A year ago, nobody would have considered such a question. But today, of course, lots of people are. We are really grateful to be able to do this series on TVO, and we have to thank the generous support of the Wilson Foundation for doing so. Red Wilson, I know you're watching, and I want to thank you for the way that you have really wonderfully helped supported the work that we do here in the interests of discussing democratic and civic engagement. So, thanks so much, Red Wilson.

And we are delighted to welcome two hearty souls who are going to engage on the issue of the day. And here they are. Laura Babcock is a former Chamber of Commerce executive director, now a current affairs commentator and host of the O show. And Peter Sherman is here. He's a former progressive conservative member of the Ontario legislature and a broadcaster whose nickname was and is and ever shall be the Shermanator. That's him. Can I have a hand for these two, please? for coming up to be with us here today at the ball.

I do want to say we are very anxious to hear from this audience as well because you are not just here to be potted plants. You are going to participate as best you can in the discussion that we are about to have. So start thinking now about questions andor comments that you would like to contribute to our conversation today. And we're going to put you to work right away here.

I'm going to do just a few questions off the top to get a sense of the room and then I'm going to describe because some people are listening to this on podcast and they won't see it. So I'm going to describe sort of how many hands are going up here. Question one, we are mad at Donald Trump. And a good way to show our unhappiness with his awful behavior is for Canadian snowbirds not to go to the US this winter. Who agrees with that sentiment? Hands up.

Okay. I am looking at most of the hands up in the room, I think. Okay, let's try this again. Another show of hands. Canada is a cold country. Trump isn't going to care one way or another whether we go. We're only inconveniencing ourselves if we don't go. So, it's okay to go. Hands up on that one, please.

Wow. Very, very few. This is a home game for you, Laura. Okay. Um, is there anybody in the room who is genuinely undecided on this issue? Can I see some hands on that? A small smattering of hands of people are undecided. Okay, Peter, you've got an opportunity, it would seem, to convince some people, uh, to come your way.

Uh, couple of more questions here. How many people here either are or have been snowbirds in the past? You have gone south during the wintertime. I'm seeing some hands at the back. Oh, okay. Lots of hands. I'm guessing here about half to twothirds of the hands went up on that one.

Let us uh continue if you will to establish a bit of baseline. And I'm going to get Stephen stand up if you would because I want to introduce you here. You are the president of Snowbird Advisor and Snowbird Advisor Insurance. Stephen Fine, thanks for coming up today. You live you live not too far from us at TVO, right?

Not far at all.

Okay. So, thanks for coming up to New Market. Let's just do some basic understanding of what we're talking about today. Describe a typical snowbird, if there is such a thing.

Well, a typical snowbird, it depends who you're talking to. There are different definitions, but we would say someone who's typically retired, semi-retired, uh, usually 55 plus and will go away to warm weather destinations for between 1 and 6 months over the winter. Usually beginning in October and coming back in April at sometime over that period.

You tend to think Florida, Arizona. Is that basically it?

Uh, not really actually. Those are the two big ones. Florida's number one, Arizona's number two, but there are a number of other places in the US, and we've seen international destinations growing as well.

Can you determine yet, I know we're still a little while away from the time when people traditionally leave. Can you determine yet whether people are either thinking about or actually boycotting going to the States winter?

Well, it's a little early to tell right now. We're hearing sentiment on both sides from our members at this point. Um, I think that we'll see some decline in US travel this year among snowbirds, but I don't think it's going to be as drastic as some of the other travel numbers we're seeing where travel's down by 25 or 30%. We anticipate it'll be more in the potentially 10 to 15% range, but again, too early to tell. We won't really know until the end of the season.

And again, not meaning to put you on the spot here because maybe you don't have a number, but if 10 to 15% of snowbirds don't go, do you know what dollar figure that represents?

We don't have a dollar figure on that. You know, we're not really sure. We we don't we don't keep track of those kinds of numbers, but it it would be significant, but keep in mind as well, you know, the majority of snowbirds traditionally go to the US. About 85 to 90% of snowbirds go to the US traditionally. So if you see a drop of about 10%, you're still getting the vast majority of snowbirds going to the US somewhere in the 70 75 80% range potentially.

Gotcha. Stephen, thanks for your help on this. I may come back to you later in the program if need be. Stephen, fine. Everybody can have a little hand for him. Thank you.

Okay, back to you two. Let us establish our sides. Laura, you think it's okay to go to the States and be a snowbird this winter?

Not this winter, Steve. because three main reasons and I can elaborate on them as we go. The first is safety. It changes by the weekend. I see a lot of people nodding your heads in agreement. For the first time in its history, the United States is now on the human rights watch because some things are going on in that country that are deeply disturbing. And given that the relationship between the current administration and Canada seems very volatile, we don't know every morning when we wake up what the sentiment will be towards Canadians. I think it's something that every snowbird and every Canadian should consider.

The second thing is signal. I have a communications company called Power Group and I always teach my clients, you got to send a clear signal through the noise. And we know there is so much noise going on coming out of the US, right? It takes over our lives. So the signal that Canada is trying to send is the same signal that I say to my kids if they're threatened. Right now, we're being threatened with our sovereignty and our economy. And I say to my kids, when a bully threatens you, you stand up early and often and always. You send a clear signal and you do not change that. So what signal does it send? If a million snowbirds fly south and give billions in tourism, it interrupts the signal that Canada is trying to send.

And the last thing and the one I'm most passionate about is sovereignty to our country in the sense of patri of economic patriotism. That means that we have to put our economy first. It doesn't mean nationalism where we block out other investment around the world. It doesn't mean closing our walls as a country, but it means prioritizing Canadianbuilt products. And millions of Canadians have made sacrifices. Myself included. Can't go see my family in Cleveland and Florida. Can't do all the travel to the US that I love to do. I'm doing it. I'm trying not to buy US products out of a sense of solidarity with millions of Canadians, especially the ones who have lost their jobs in the auto sector. What would that say? If I decide willingly, not because I have to go for some emergency, but willingly to travel and give my money to a country that is currently threatening and bullying us. I can't do it. Not this year. And I hope all of the snowbirds give a long hard thought to both their safety, the signal they're sending, and solidarity with the rest of Canada. Thank you.

Safety signal. Solidarity. Peter. We did mention it looked like it was going to be a bit of a home game for Laura here. You want to try making the opposite argument?

Oh, I don't even want to try. No, I I do want to try. As a matter of fact, I have the unique experience of having been a snowbird myself for six or seven years. And uh for a a reason that had absolutely nothing to do with wanting to be in the sun, the birth of a grandson who was unexpected. uh four years ago we sold in Florida and decided to weather the storm and stay in Canada and be in the cold. But the bottom line is around the time we bought my doctor said to me, you know, um you're getting to be what we describe as elderly. That's older. You're not old, but uh you're not working regularly anymore. You don't want to. And I might tell you I'm three weeks away from being 78 now. So the the concept of getting out of the cold appeals to me. The concept of being with my social peers, most of whom are down there, u also appeals to me.

If I take a look at where I live, it happens to be a condo complex in North York where a lot of the people in the building are of similar age to me. In the summer, we see everybody because they're gathered around the pool. In the winter, they disappear. In fact, we've already seen some people take off, watch their cars go on the truck or them get in if they want to drive. Uh, and they're they're going the the building empties out and we don't see them for an entire season.

So, I agree with Laura when she says you have to make sure that you cut through the noise and get onto the signal. The noise to me is what everybody is saying about whether the United States is safe. Look, we went to Florida. 60% of people there have guns in their cars. Now they're an open carry state. At least you know who has one. But the bottom line is we knew where to go and we knew where not to go. Um we like the idea of wearing light clothing, staying in shorts year round. That's our reason for wanting to go and I don't think it has much to do with Donald Trump or the cost of money.

But just to be clear, you will go south this weekend.

I I would if I h I'm not a snowbird anymore. So I I will go to Florida, but it'll be for one or two weeks. We'll stay with relatives. And that's another thing I should say. Snowbirds often locate in areas where they have many friends and relatives. South Florida is a place where we have many friends and relatives. And regardless of whether we were or weren't snowbirds, and regardless of whether there were a tiff going on between the United States and Canada, or whether the dollar is going at a$140, we'd be there. So sometime in January or February, you'll find me wandering the uh the town center on Glades Road in Boca Raton.

It's a little more than a tiff that's going on between Canada and the United States.

You could say that.

You could Well, I just did. I mean, and and it because it is it is more than a tiff.

It is. But the way I see it, I didn't get a vote. So I didn't vote for Trump and I didn't vote against Trump. I voted for Carney or I voted for PV. It doesn't matter which one it was. I'm a Canadian. Canadians go to Florida, they go to Arizona, they go to California. And sometimes they decide to go further a field, which my wife and I have discussed doing as well this winter. If we can afford it and the time is there, I think the time will be there. Maybe we'll go to Barbados. Maybe we'll go to the Bahamas. But we're not boycotting the United States. We don't have a problem with the people of the United States. I believe our government has a problem with the government of the United States and as these things tend to settle, we will settle at some point and in some way and it'll be okay again.

Laura, could you speak to that angle because Peter makes a good point? Uh, every American I've ever spoken to uh online, in person, whatever, say, "you know, we're kind of sorry about all this."

Yeah. You know that we Americans don't have a problem with you Canadians. very much is a president of the United States and a prime minister of Canada thing. Does that make you bevel your edges a bit on this?

I love Americans. In fact, our second biggest audience for the O show, even though we're a Canadian National Prodemocracy podcast, are Americans. I hear from them all the time and they're in solidarity with us. They're in solidarity with what we're doing. They hate what's happening. They hate the disruption. I used to run a chamber of commerce in Oakville. So much of my members business was reliant on our biggest trading partner. This is devastating. This is not just a tiff. This is just not, you know, some tariffs on softwood lumber or supply chain issues around dairy. This is aggressive tariff setting disrupting our trade agreement that we worked so hard on a number of years ago in the first Trump administration and saying to Canadian businesses, you don't know if you're going to have access to our market. You don't know what's going to happen. You don't know if we're going to be reliable for you. You could wake up in the morning and find out there's a 10% extra tariff across the board. So that's called a trade war. It's not a tiff.

And the second thing is I would love to visit my family in Cleveland like I do for St. Patrick's Day or go down and see my family in Florida. I've worked in Texas. I love to go to the US. It's got nothing to do with gun open carrier closed although I have a good Nashville story I can tell. But it's about the fact that right now the US is in a destabil position. And we'll probably talk later about democracy and the rest of it, but it is definitely not a stable nation the way we're used to. And so I think for Canadians, you can love your American friends and family. You can connect with them over Zoom. You can say to them, I sure hope that I'm going to be back there next year. But this winter, this is what my family does. We're going to Punchana, and we love going to Mexico like we did last winter. There are other places where snowbirds can spend their money, maybe meet some new friends before they go back to their communities they're so used to.

Okay, Peter, come on back.

Well, it's interesting that you use the word an unstable or a destabilized place right now. What I speak to the United States, I suppose, three or four times a week because we have close enough people in the states that I want to do that or they do and I don't think they consider themselves unstable at all. Some of them like their president, some of them don't like their president, but none of them feel that they're in any danger. We're the ones who think it's it's unstable. And from our perspective, I suppose I could agree with that point of view. Having said that, I'm the one who has to decide if I'm a snowbird whether I want to be there or not. And whether that instability that I perceive is there is going to be injurious to me. I don't think it is.

Let's look around this audience. Has anybody got a point they want to make on this issue? Can I get somebody to wait over here? Sheldon, follow me if you would. Oh, hi. I know who you are. Go ahead. Introduce yourself to the gang.

How are you? John Taylor. I'm the mayor of New Market. And uh I think the message I want to share is is oddly in between. Well, maybe that sounds like a politician actually. Uh my point is is that I think every Canadian should be doing everything they can to not spend money in the US economy and that includes going south.

The point I want to make though is there is a lot of things in this world right now that divide us. And so be thoughtful and kind to your neighbors. Don't judge them. Don't assume you know their whole story. There are unique circumstances uh why some people may need to travel to the United States, may want to travel the United States. I encourage us all to explore every way to not do it, but at the same time, let's do everything we can to not be divided anymore or as little as we can. Strong opinions, good intentions, but less division.

Well, that's what we do here. We have, you know, strong engaging interchange on the issues, but we're all being very civil with each other. Let me ask you this, though. We've had some discussion here about, you know, if you have a chance to go somewhere for 2 weeks, that's different from I own a place in Arizona and to have it sit there empty for the whole year is really difficult and a waste of money. How would you respond to that?

I I think it's very hard. I mean, I think of like people and I've heard life experiences. I mean, if I'm going away for two weeks or I wish a week, uh I I'm not going to United States because that's simply a vacation. Maybe now how what happens if my niece is getting married or what happens if you know not for me but you've got it like you said somebody down the street from you they just a few couple years ago invested in and bought their dream place and are they to leave it sitting empty for years I don't know but maybe they could go a lot less it's kind of like maybe reducing your carbon footprint I I'll eat a little less meat you know and I'll try to do my part um so some people's circumstances will be a little different I think we should all do everything we can to send a strong message to impact with a strong message but let's be a little bit patient that we don't know our neighbors full story.

Fair enough. Your worship. Thank you and thanks for having us here today. This is great. Yeah. Anybody else? Anybody else want in? Laura, I think I I I think I want you to speak to this issue of there's a big difference between going somewhere for two weeks and having a place that you might have gone to for four months that you've put your life savings into and has a real special place in your heart. How do you deal with that conundrum?

It's rough. It's a sacrifice. And to my colleagueu's point, he has community down there that he goes to visit. I have snowbirds in my family who moved from their Texas location to Mexico now. Um, and you know, they're they're loving the new cultural experience, but they had to leave behind a community they were with for a number of years that they looked forward to going and seeing. But I think in the long course of things, we are in an unprecedented moment. We haven't had threats to Canada sovereignty by America in about 200 years or so. This is something that we have to take seriously.

It's not just about necessarily the safety of your particular community enclave, which you talk to Americans all the time. I have friends from America. They feel okay where they are, but they don't know exactly how it's going to remain. And I don't know exactly how Americans are going to continue to feel about Canada as the rhetoric escalates or as things change. We just don't know. So when I say instability, I don't mean permanently terrible. Don't go to the US because I want to get back there. I love it. I'm bitter that I couldn't go on my holidays this year. Uh however, we don't know. And until we feel a sense of okay this is okay for me to go back I think we should give it serious thought like the mayor said

also though it's a sacrifice right think of the sacrifice of the auto workers think of the sacrifices of small businesses who have lost major market share in the US there are people sacrificing all the time and if so subleasasing or not being able to use your rental property not being able to see your friends for a year is the sacrifice that snowbirds have to do I think you have to think strongly about that. It sucks, if I can say that, Steve, but it is how it is right now. So, let's be together as Canadians. Let's not divide amongst ourselves domestically or otherwise. And let's continue to send a strong, clear signal, even if sometimes it's scary and we're worried about what it's going to turn into. We can't be bullied and we can't back down.

I want to sus out Peter's position a little more on this, which is to say certainly when you were in politics, you had your ear to the ground very intensely to know what your constituents believed about something. Uh I know you are watching now with interest as from time to time Canadians boo the Star Spangled Banner when they hear it at a sporting event. Although interestingly, we didn't hear any of that in the first two games of the World Series. We noticed that was that was of interest. Um is there a part of you that feels just the slightest bit it would be disloyal somehow to go down to the states right now.

There's a part of me that feels pissed off that we got into this situation, but we didn't put ourselves in this situation. It just happened. If we were having a debate about Trump, which would go ours and is not what this is about. We could talk about the fact that the Americans I speak to who support Trump, and I speak to a lot of those people, say, "Look, we're happy. He said he was going to do these things. They are things that needed to be done. We support what he's doing. That's what we elected him to do. I'm not taking that position, but they are, which is why Americans, for the most part, feel safe.

On the other hand, I've been on recently a cruise ship where the first people we met the first morning that we woke up happened to be from the left coast as they call it. And uh we introduced ourselves, they introduced themselves. We both talked about where we came from, which is what you the first words that come out of your mouth when you meet people who are strangers on a a vacation. And uh we're the we're the Shermans from Toronto. We're the whoever they were from Portland, Oregon. You're from Toronto. We're so sorry. Okay. So, I appreciated that, but I said, you don't have to be sorry. I want to bring it back to a conversation that is less politically pointed.

So, I I gave you the qualified yes. Of course, my ear to the ground tells me, yeah, I'm I'm not happy with the situation. Having said that, I have to make do with it. And when I mentioned that I am in the category that's described by my physician charitably as uh elderly, I don't know how many more times I'm going to see my 85year-old brother-in-law or my 75year-old sister-in-law

who live where

in Boca Raton permanently. They come up here, we go down there for family events. So I'll tell you two stories about that. One is maybe it's four more times in our lives and maybe if I don't go this year it's three. So I have to keep that in mind. Second thing, we had a family event in July and more than just those aging in-laws came. One of the the daughters, my niece came. She's in her early 40s. She has three kids, very well educated, very smart, and by the way, a dual citizen born in Canada. And she said, I uh I said to her, you know, a lot of Canadians won't go to the States these days. And she said, "And there are a lot of Americans who won't go to Canada, and I'm one of them. and I'm here because this is a family event. And I said, "Why wouldn't you go to Canada?" She said, "Because it's a nasty little country that just wants to snub us." So there's the other side.

Can I ask you about Ohio? I mean, isn't there a part of you that feels I shouldn't be giving Trump the victory by not going to Ohio? Why am I depriving myself of seeing family I love? Do

you know I haven't brought up the T-word yet. You have a couple of times, but I'm happy. Is that tariffs or trade?

That would be Trump.

Trump, the third one. But I'm I'm happy to talk Trump all day, as my podcast would indicate. Listen, I have family in Ohio. You know what they did this summer? They got in a couple of vans and came up to our house. And the entire time, every time we had a lot of people there. Every time I walked by the picnic table, they said, "Laura, Laura, Laura, we're so sorry about what's happening. What do you think we should do? We're in Ohio." And I'm like, "You know what? Just keep doing what you're doing, right? um they care about us. They had no problem coming to Canada.

I also want to say though, if as snowbirds you decide to, you know, try something else like Mexico or the Dominican Republic, I've been to both those places since all this madness started. And every time they say, you know, where are you from? And people go, Canada. Applause from the Americans there, from the Mexicans, from the people in the Dominican, from the people in Europe who are there. They absolutely see Canada as leading the charge for democracy, for independence, for the rule of law, for fairness. They don't see us as a nasty little country. They see us as leading the tip of the spear against what seems to be very unfair global trade practices. And I got to tell you, it feels really good to have people from around the world clap for you, talk to you, and say, "Keep it up, Canada. The world is watching."

Can I just get a sense of the audience here? Donald Trump became the president in January. Who here has tried to go to the United States since Trump became president? Hands up. Okay, very few hands going up right now. Next question. Anybody have trouble getting over the border? Anybody have sort of more than usual difficulty getting over the border? a security officer who maybe No, I'm seeing a lot of heads shaking. Nobody had any difficulty at all. Oh, just a second here. Hang on. I see one hand in the back. Sir, would you mind standing for a second? I'd love to hear the story. You yelled out, "Your son." Yes. What happened?

He and his family were going to Pittsburgh uh because the Pittsburgh Pirates organization were hosting a fun event for young ball players. Our nephew, our our grandson, his 10-year-old, plays AAA ball. He got to Buffalo and he he's with a major bank and they were driving down. I assume they were driving and the security guard or the customs guy was totally rude to him. Like so rude. Adam said, "If I didn't be if I wasn't going to New York twice a month, I'd have punched the son of a right in the face."

Okay, so did this affect or change your view of what's going on right now?

Well, we have never had a problem because we've gone for years to Amelia Island and we have a wonderful experience. It's just uh you cross I 95 from Georgia into Florida. It's the first two exits and we met some great Americans number of years ago who introduced us and a we have many close cherished American friends there. But it's uh it's it's getting there.

So the the the border situation that your son and grandson, is that who it was, that they experienced, has it turned them off the United States?

Oh, it left them in a very sour mood. Yeah, it depends where you go. We always crossed at Lewon and the folks at Lewon are for the most part very delightful customs people.

What are your plans over the next several months?

Well, we are not going. We we went for years and uh due to circumstances beyond our control, nothing to do with politics, we were only able to go for a month this year and we just decided we have we have Nexus cards. We've been fingerprinted. We've had extensive interviews to get those cards and uh Mr. T says, "Screw the cards. You're going to register again." So and we're aliens.

You're aliens. What do you mean?

Well, they he considers us aliens. I've got three cousins. They're all Americans. So I've been to the US many times. I've got a good view. I feel very good about them. What they're going through now is they're a dangerous country.

Gotcha. Thank you for sharing that. Much appreciated. I want to go to Stephen. Can I get you again here? Stephen Fines, our snowbird expert here. Can you tell me first of all, because a a lot of what I hear about this is anecdotal and you will know the actual facts and we like to deal with empirically provable facts. I'm hearing that there's a lot more nastiness trying to cross the border these days, including fingerprinting and a kind of a, you know, the third degree of questioning that you never would have had before Trump became president. True or false?

It's a little bit of both. uh fingerprinting is not required when you go over the border. Now, we've heard of some incidents happening over the last week or so where some individuals have been required to go through biometrics when they're crossing the land border into the US. So, that would mean getting your photograph taken. That would mean fingerprinting. Now, these the this is not the official policy. Not everybody who goes over the border needs to be fingerprinted. Unfortunately, there's a lot of confusion and a lot of inconsistency at the border right now.

It's primarily I don't want to go into all the different rules because we could spend the next hour talking about it. We have some information about that on our website. We try to keep people updated. It's changing regularly, but most uh individuals will just go across the border as they normally would have in the past and then register online with US citizenship and immigration services online. There's no fee to do that. There are no biometric requirements, no fingerprinting required. Now, some Canadians are asking for what's called an I94 form at the border. And if you ask for that, then you do need to go through biometrics.

What is that? A 99 I94.

It's a it's a record of entry into the US. And usually, you don't need it at the border or at at the land border. Historically, you haven't or it's been recorded automatically, but in most cases, you're not issued one. When you go to the to the US, you wouldn't even know that you were issued one in the past. Um and but now if you go down and you ask for one then you will have to pay a fee for that. You will go through biometrics. If you don't ask for it in most cases you will just go through the border and then you can register once you're on the other side if you're staying for 30 days or more. If you're not staying for 30 days or more you don't need to register at all.

What's happened in the last week or so is there have been some reported um uh incidents of Canadians where the uh US Customs and uh Border Patrol officers have required them to get an I94 at the border and go through biometrics. So that's where there's some confusion right now. So

and that requirement should not be in place.

It should not be in place. uh the CBP officers should not be requiring Canadians to uh to to obtain an I9.

So why are they?

We're trying to figure that out as well. There is some confusion, but in most cases that is not happening and that is not the official policy and we are working through to get uh statements from official sources so that we can share that. Um, but what snowbirds need to know right now if they're going down for 30 days or more and they're driving to the US is be prepared to register in a fashion which you may not have anticipated having to register in before. So be open. Um, go along with the CBP officer's recommendation, whatever it may be. Don't ask for an I94. They may require you to get one, but in most cases you won't have to. Uh, but what we have not heard is people being rejected at the border. uh people get through, you may just have to register in a way that you hadn't anticipated before.

Okay, Stephen, thank you for that. I wonder, Laura, in an era of Trump, it is always possible to interpret that whatever stuff you run into at the border is because the president has suddenly put a new edict on Canadians and is trying to make our life difficult. I mean, it's also possible that it could just be what it always is, which is sometimes border officials get up on the wrong side of the bed and they're not having a good day and they take it out on you. I mean, that's fair to say, isn't it?

It's possible, but I have had a chance to travel a bit and worked in Europe and in Asia, and I can tell you listening to you just now talking about the biometric scan and the rest of it, it's madness. This is not the America that we pop over and go shopping at the outlet malls, right, that we've been doing for years and years. And who knows by the time, you know, people are watching and listening to this what it'll be then.

The fact that you represent the organization of snowbirds or you do insurance for snowbirds and you're talking about not understanding the confusing practices that some are reporting back is the point right now. Whether it's coming right from the office of Donald Trump because he woke up angry or whether it is some overzealous border guard or whether it's somebody who's tired and doesn't like how Canadians have been, you know, not supporting their local stores across the border in the town they live in. Who knows? But the point is when I travel to other countries that never crosses my mind. I mean I've been to a few places where it's a little scary they've got automatic weapons or we had to carry our passports around. But just the description now tells me that not only do they not deserve our money if we can keep it from them because of the way they're bullying us and threatening our sovereignty and our economy and a lot of jobs in this country. But also it doesn't feel like a place that I would go unless I had to, you know, and so

people have to work, Stephen. people have to close up maybe their their place they have down there if they decide they're not going back. People might have a family emergency. That's for all of us on our own conscience. And sometimes I buy stuff on Amazon and I go, "Oo, I shouldn't have done that." Right? We're not perfect, but we have to do everything we can to send a clear signal. We want to be safe. We want to make sure they get that we're not happy and we won't be bullied. And again, economic patriotism. Let's build up Canada for the future. Let's control, as our prime minister says, the things we can. We can't control Trump's edicts or a border guide, Stephen. But we can control our choices with our money.

You mentioned money, and I want to do what Woodward and Bernstein suggested, which is follow the money. Before we follow the money, I want to rerack here for a second because I want to remind everybody that we are here in New Market, Ontario, and the mayor is here. How about that? John Taylor decided just to show up today. We're grateful for that.

And we're in the Upper Canada Mall, which I got to say is absolutely We're here on a It's a Sunday afternoon. It is booming here today. I thought I was at Yorkdale for a second. It's so busy. Anyways, uh we're talking about whether or not Snowbird should go south this winter or whether or not it would be better to stay here. As if that were a registry of our antipathy for what Donald Trump is doing to Canada right now. These are some of the issues we're exploring. Peter Sherman is here. Laura Babcock is here. And we're figuring this out as we go. And as I say, we want to follow the money. Now, here's some numbers I want to put on the record.

This is according to the US Travel Association. Canadian travelers inject about $20 billion into the United States and a lot of that, of course, is from snowbirds. However, the US is a $30 trillion economy. And even in Florida, Canadians only make up 1.7 million of 75 million annual visitors. So Peter, start with you and then I'll get Laura to come in. If we do what Laura suggests, given these numbers, is anybody going to notice down there?

Yeah. The guy who runs the deli down the street from where I used to live in Boca Raton because he services Canadians and without Canadians, he winds up getting hurt. But that's who gets hurt. the overall economy of the United States does not get hurt. And I think that's what what Trump knows very well and that's why he can play the bully that he's playing.

The the bottom line here is Laura said it. This is not the United States that we remember. It's not the United States that when I was a little kid had money that we could exchange at a$110 Canadian rather than 60 cents Canadian. Um, it's not the place that my parents took us for picnics on a Saturday so that my mother could go lingerie shopping or grocery shopping. It's not the place that just a few years ago when I lived in Niagara on the lake, we could go into our grocery shopping across in a Buffalo and get products that we couldn't get here. It's not that. It's something different.

The only constant in the world is change. When it comes to things, for example, like biometrics, which you were just talking about, biometrics are a fact of life. If you go into Shenhen Europe, Shenhen being the 30 countries or so of the EU, when you enter one, you've entered them all. You don't have to go into each one with a passport. So you go and you you land at Paris or you do what you have to do, which includes a fingerprint, by the way, and a photograph, which is what the Americans are asking for. Probably something that in the not too distant future we will be asking for. And that way they have it. The world changes all the time. Why? because airplanes take people anywhere they want to go and deposit them there.

And and we're looking at a a crisis that was created in the past that Trump thinks he's solving in a way that a lot of us don't approve of, but he is attacking it however we we view it. Uh and that's as a result of people landing where they shouldn't have been without having the kind of interview we're talking about. So I don't have any particular objections to that.

Speaking of which, when I lived in Niagara on the lake, I often encountered that guy who got up on the wrong side of the bed. And this is long before there was a Trump. And and if you answered a question wrong, he'd say, "I asked the questions here." Whereas my most recent trip was through Pearson. I presented my Nexus card to a machine. When they called Sherman, we walked through a a kiosk and the guy said, "Mr. Mr. Sherman, have a nice trip." So you it depends on who you encounter. That's it.

I want to put those numbers to you again, though, Laura. 20 billion annually from us to them in a $30 trillion economy. Even if every single person here boycotted, is it a pimple on the back of an elephant?

I never mentioned the economic argument in my top three. If you recall, I talked about safety, signal, and solidarity. And that's for a good reason because we are a drop in their bucket, but they are an entire waterfall to our economy, right? So what signal do we send if we say you know what even though it's only$20 billion dollar uh maybe that's $20 billion let's talk about the impact on Canada's economy if you travel this country if you check out places you've never gotten to if you pump those dollars back into Canadian stores. Change up your purchasing habits. Find local farms for your food. Stay away from the big American discount stores. Find Canadian ones. So the money when it's on us is a big freaking deal in this.

But I want to talk about something that we haven't touched on enough in my mind and I was honest off the top. I said it's the one I'm most passionate about. And that is they're not just threatening our country with a trade war. We've been through trade wars. We understand that. We had a hard renegotiation with Trump.1.

What this is is a constant threat to our sovereignty. And it is not just Trump trolling us. Trust me, I'm probably on social media more than everyone here today. I know a good troll when I see one. That's not what this is. You know, manifest destiny as a doctrine goes way back. Talking about how Canada is a natural part of the United States. The Monroe Doctrine way back talks about how the Western Hemisphere is the sphere of influence of the United States. Right?

This is not a new concept. But what Donald Trump is very good at is normalizing the outrageous. saying it over and over in a joking light-hearted way until it becomes normalized with a generation of Americans who see our minerals and see our access to the northern uh gateway which is hugely valuable now uh as as being theirs. And we have to stand up now for our children. I got teenagers. They're here. And for our grandchildren and say in this moment when our sovereignty was being threatened, we sure as hell weren't going to make it easier for them to take our country.

Peter mentioned he's got a connection with Florida. You're getting Were those the kids applauding for you? I don't know. How many people here have been to Florida? Hands up. Okay, for those listening on podcast, pretty much every hand in the room went up. Canadians love going to Florida. Whether it's for spring training for the Blue Jays or whatever, Canadians spend a lot of time there. I got some more numbers I want to share.

This is how many people have been to Orlando specifically? Hands up. Again, probably 80% of the hands went up here. This is according to visit Orlando. This is the tourism bureau for Central Florida. By everybody going to Orlando or Florida, you are reducing the local tax burden by $7,474 per household in the Orlando region alone. If you broaden it out to Orange County, a bigger area, the tax burden is reduced by more than $10,000 per household. The governor of Florida says, quote, "I want Canadian tourists and Brazilian tourists subsidizing the state and making it so Florida residents pay less taxes." He should have said fewer taxes, but Mr. Dantis isn't great on the grammar there, so that's okay.

All right. We we clearly Peter are you know as you look at 20 billion in a 30 trillion economy that's not all that much.

I understand why the governor is saying what he's saying. Having said that we're assuming that we're all going to stop going and when we all stop going those numbers that you quoted will disappear and the burden on those particular cities will be extreme.

That's everybody incidentally represents all tourists. No, we're not all going to disappear.

That's right. So, I don't know what it's going to be as a result of people deciding they're going to boycott Disney World this year, which is Orlando, or some of the other attractions that are in that area. It's temporary. They're going to have to suck it up the same way our prime minister has told us. We're going to have to make sacrifices. That's just the way it is. And and it's the nature of something that changes. We're in change.

Um Laura brought up the issue of of Trump being uh a factor and of course he is in this change and changing things in a dramatic way. I think he knows exactly what he's doing and I think he knows exactly what he wants to achieve. He talked for a while and teased us about a 51st state. They can't do a 51st state because their Congress would never pass it. We can't do a 51st state because we'd have to open up the 1982 Charter of Rights and Freedoms. So there's not going to be a 51st state.

What he wants is a North American fortress. The same thing that Doug Ford often talks about it and he's going to get it in the end because we had it. We and and basically Trump says this all the time. We took it. We lived under the defense umbrella. We didn't say thank you. We just did. He doesn't want us to take a free ride anymore. You can like that or not like it, but it's a fact. So the change that he wants to evoke in all of this, he also wants a separate trade agreement with Mexico from the one he has with Canada. Why? Because the trade components are different with each of these countries. So he's pushing towards that. I think he's going to get that, too. And in the end, if we were to project out towards the end of Trump's presidency, don't all applaud um three years, we would probably

I want to ask you just how far I mean your view on this is crystal clear, but I wonder and this is a program that you're on today which sort of celebrates being able to strongly disagree without being disagreeable. Would you put loyalty tests on this? As in, if I found that a friend of mine was going to the United States, I might stop speaking to that friend. Would you do that?

Never. Cuz we didn't pick this fight. Why fight with each other about it, right? I mean, h how does that help us to be mad at each other for not passing some purity test? I am against purity tests in everything, Stephen. I think humans are much more nuanced. It's more about being in strategic. I'm a strategist by work. And what is the strategic thing to do? uh it is to sacrifice where we can to send a clear signal to this government that even though my colleague here thinks it's inevitable that Trump's going to get some of his ends. I don't believe in inevitability. I believe in strategy.

And when it's said that it can't be a 51st state, I say, well, that's not if we use the norms. But to your point, change happens. And we're seeing change right now in the US and how they're operating. Congress hasn't really done much of its job and neither has the third branch, the judiciary. Are they going to prevent another Trump presidency? Apparently, the plan is in place to find a way to keep him there. So, I love the idea of everything flipping in the midterms. I love the idea of Trump leaving after two terms, as one should in the US. I love the idea of this all being a big joke. But until I am seeing evidence that it is in fact a joke, I am not going to sit here and be blasze. I'm going to fight for my country every damn day.

I want to dig down just a little deeper and see if there is some more nuance in this audience. Most of you, the vast majority of you when I asked the question off the top, would you go to the United States right now all said no? Let me refine the question a little bit more. What about California? What about New York? What about Massachusetts? These are blue states. These are not states that voted for Trump. Would that make you change your mind? How many people here would think, I don't want to go to Florida. I don't want to go to Arizona. I don't want to go to the Midwest. I won't go to the deep south. But the blue states, that's okay. Hands up.

One, two, three, four, five, six, seven. Okay. Very few. So, this is a pretty hardline audience, right? I'm seeing heads nodding. This is a pretty hardline audience.

When Gavin Newsome, who I deeply admire, how he has stepped up. Exactly. Canadians are cheering for the California governor here. Um when he put out a video saying, "Come on, Canada. We're California. You love us. We love you." Right. Uh I said, you know, with all due respect, and I love California, been there many times. This is not the message, Gavin. you know, we support your state, but we need to be in solidarity against the unfair trade practices coming from that Trump government. It is not about that. And I have to say, Stephen, in anticipation that maybe things would go this way, I didn't anticipate, honestly, some of the violence we're seeing with the ICE raids and stuff, I couldn't imagine that.

Um, but I my daughter, I was going to take her to New York City, my favorite place on earth, maybe uh for her 16th birthday. I took her at 14 the month before the election just in case I wasn't going to be able to take her for a few years. And I didn't want her to miss America at its best. When you stand in in Time Square on a beautiful night on a Saturday night and you feel the energy of the world, the diversity, I wanted her to experience the best of America.

Let me understand this. When did she turn 16?

In in a year and a half. I took her early. I took her at 14 right before the election because I said just in case I don't want you to miss America when it is still a shining city on a hill at its zenith and it breaks my heart but I'm so glad I did.

Peter, I just wanted to ask the audience a question as you have. If I said that Steve had in his lefthand pocket a pair of tickets to one of the games in Los Angeles in the next couple of of days, and he also had an airplane ticket in a hotel room, and one of you was going to get it. How many would accept it if it was awarded to you?

We should just explain, Peter, th this will be air. He doesn't, by the way. No, I don't. This will air in November, but we are sitting here recording this the night after the Blue Jays lost game two to the LA Dodgers in the World Series. And some people have got their Blue Jay paraphernalia on here today. But yeah, there's a lot of discussion I think in the country right now among some who know that it actually might be cheaper to to scalp some tickets for Toronto and go to Los Angeles and see them play there because of course the Dodgers are in it all the time and it's not the hot ticket there. It is here. So this is a real what you've just raised. No, I don't have any tickets in my pocket, but it's a real thing.

But these are the kinds of things that we ask ourselves, you know, what what is it that I'm prepared to break my word for? Um, I'm I'm as strong for Canada as as my colleague is, but I I'm not going to jump up and down and rave about it. I've served in the Ontario legislature and raved about it for plenty of years, and I'm not I'm not telling you what a great guy I am. I'm simply saying there's a reality. The reality is I might want to see one of those games in Los Angeles. The reality is that when they ran the season opener, and I know this is airing on November the 22nd, when they ran the season opener, um, in late October, they brought a an incredible choir called The Voices of Fire and put together a a show by Farel Williams for those who don't know it,

Yeah. And I watched the I watched the most amazing renditions of both national anthems ever, and I didn't hear one blue. That's the way Americans and Canadians have always been. It's the way they are and it's the way they all should be. And I I dare say will be one day again.

May I just respond? Um I'm sure you weren't referencing me about jumping up and down and raving because I have not been doing that today or ever. I do think though that we have to have some clarity about what it is that we are sacrificing. Would I love to go to a Jay's game in LA? 100%. Would I love to go to Nashville and party? If you haven't, it is so much fun and I desperately missed it.

You did say you were going to promise us a Nashville story. What was that about?

You know, this is actually several years ago when Biden was still in office, maybe the third year of Biden's term and we had just arrived in Nashville. We were at this wonderful bar and we were chatting up with one of the servers who was actually from New York in Nashville and we got talking about the a Biden administration and Trump, you know, I'm a political pundit. It's what I do. Uh, and after a few minutes the manager came over and said, "You can't talk about that here." And we're like, "What?" And they said, "Well, this is, I believe at the time it was open carry, but Nashville is, you know, fairly democratic city, but around." They said, "There are people here in this bar who are getting agitated just listening to Canadians talk about Biden." And we weren't even being particularly provocative. It was breakfast, right?

Um, but I said to the manager, I said, "What happened to America being the bastion of free speech?" I mean that has been the calling card of this country since the get and we're sitting here and we can't even have a polite breakfast conversation with the hospitality because it's too dangerous. And it was at that moment where I was like wow. So this change we're talking about is not just about biometrics and technology. It's a chilling in that country of the very things that a lot of us take for granted in Canada. And until such time that America gets back to a place where you can have a conversation about the president without feeling intimidated, I won't be going. Whether it's a World Series ticket or the best concert in the world, it would have to take something severely urgent and personal to my family for me to step over that border.

Okay, we are in the home stretch here. Let me just see here. Um, couple of things before we finish. Okay, this is a you're on a show here called TVO Today Live and we do this basically once a month during the course of the year. And essentially at the end of the day, it's a show about democratic engagement, which you're all doing by being here today. So I want to want to just ask a few questions as we wrap things up to see I want to see how many people here have changed their minds.

Can I see the people who were undecided at the beginning? Put your hands up. Those of you who are undecided at the beginning, there were a very few of you. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 nine. Yeah, very few. How many of you having heard this discussion are now with Peter Sherman and you agree with his side of the debate? Hands up please. One, two, three, four, five. Okay. Six, seven. All right. How many of you undecideds are now with Laura Babcock? One, two, three, four, five. Six. Wow. You guys both sort of persuaded almost equally the undecideds here today.

I don't think it's moved that much. I I think generally speaking when you asked the question at the outset it looked about like that and it frankly was the way I expected it to be. Look if we read the popular press and we take the statistics that we're seeing 80% of Canadians detest Trump and and are avoiding the United States because of it. So if I look at an audience like this I should see that reflected and I do.

And you know what? I I I agree it was going to be the way it is when people walked in because we have strong feelings about this, right? We have informed opinions about this. We have experienced it. We've seen the job losses in the auto sector. We've seen the headlines. We've felt the pain for 10 months. Has it not been difficult to be a Canadian for feeling for the first time that our sovereignty is under threat? It's been 200 years, right? the Revolutionary War, the War of 1812, the last time that this manifest destiny has been put to action. There have been some little things in between, but nothing as overt as right now. And it's coming directly from the most powerful office in the world. It has been stressful.

So, I think everyone coming in here, Steve, was feeling a certain level of commitment to the issue. What I think's important though is going forward, not everybody is as engaged on a beautiful Sunday afternoon as you are with their democracy. And if there's one thing that I can try to leave this audience with is that you need to talk about it. Silence doesn't make us safer as a country. You need to talk to your American friends. You need to talk to your friends who don't follow politics. You need to say to them, "Are you aware of what's happening and the consequences to our economy? Are you aware of your choices and how that might be sending a mixed signal to an administration that pays very close attention to signal and to media? Are you aware? And if you're not, I'd be happy to tell you how I feel about it, hear how you feel about it, and have a very honest, open, and loving relationship because we're Canadians. That's what we do. So, please do that. Fight for democracy itself by talking to each other. Thank you.

And that is our time. So, we're going to do some thank yous just before we pull the plug here today. First of all, first and foremost, Tina, can I turn my back on your camera for a second here? I do want to thank all of you for coming in on a Sunday afternoon to participate in this program. There are a million other things you could be doing today. The fact that you're here really give yourselves a pat on the back for civic engagement and being prepared to discuss a controversial issue on television no less. So kudos to you. Give yourselves a hand. There we go.

I want to thank our crew at TVO, Mark Ford, director Sheldon Osman for the role they played in pulling all of this together. to Hillary Clark, who's the backbone of this series, TVO Today Live. Well done, Hills. To the folks here at the Upper Canada Mall who are watching us, not only seated here, but also around the perimeter here and also up in the balcony up there. You folks have been really great to um stick around and watch us do all this. Uh Christine Seedman, I want to thank you and your whole team for all of the help you've given us. It wouldn't have happened without you.

And finally, and most importantly, I want to thank Steven Fine over here, Peter Sherman over here, Laura Babcock right here for their great contributions to our program today. Thanks you three very much. I'm Steve Pacin. Thanks so much for joining us from New Market, Ontario, and we'll see you next time.