能源出口的里程碑

Oscar Boyd: Welcome to Zero. I'm Oscar Boyd. Today, a milestone for clean tech. Hello, Aat.

Oscar Boyd: 欢迎收听《零度》。我是奥斯卡·博伊德。今天，我们将迎来清洁技术的一个里程碑。你好，阿特。

Aat: Hi. So, everyone listening will know that you usually host this podcast, but they might not know that you also regularly write a newsletter for Bloomberg Green.

Aat: 嗨。各位听众可能都知道你通常是这个播客的主持人，但他们可能不知道你还定期为彭博绿色（Bloomberg Green）撰写通讯。

Oscar Boyd: And your most recent newsletter caught my eye. It's all about China's energy exports. China is the leading exporter of clean tech, as we've discussed many times on Zero, and the US is one of the largest exporters of fossil fuels globally. But you're the first person I've seen doing a comparison of the actual numbers of these two countries' exports. That was the subject of your newsletter. What did you find?

Oscar Boyd: 你最近的一期通讯引起了我的注意。它聚焦于中国的能源出口。中国是清洁技术的主要出口国，这一点我们在《零度》节目中讨论过很多次；而美国是全球最大的化石燃料出口国之一。但你是第一个我见到对这两个国家的实际出口数字进行比较的人。这正是你通讯的主题。你发现了什么？

Aat: Yes, this is a weekly podcast, and the newsletter is daily and has many more ideas, so I hope people will subscribe. We cover climate tech on this podcast fairly regularly. And we know that China is the biggest producer of climate tech. But what I hadn't seen was a comparison between these two numbers because we also know that the US, under this Donald Trump administration, is trying to boost its fossil fuel exports.

Aat: 是的，这是一个每周播客，而通讯是每日更新的，包含更多想法，所以我希望大家订阅。我们在这个播客上相当定期地报道气候技术。我们知道中国是最大的气候技术生产国。但我之前没有见过对这两个数字的比较，因为我们也知道，在美国唐纳德·特朗普政府领导下，美国正试图提振其化石燃料出口。

Oscar Boyd: Joe baby.

Oscar Boyd: （指乔·拜登）加油！

Aat: Not just that though, because Joe Biden was also helping increase oil and gas exports. So we know that there was an upward trend in US oil and gas exports. But do they compare? They actually do, which surprised me. So what I did was I picked data that spoke to the strategic goals that the two administrations were laying out. Donald Trump was saying we would like our allies, or sometimes force them, to buy our fossil fuels. And China was saying, look, we have all this clean tech. They'll never say overcapacity, but we have more production than we can consume. We would like to export it to you. Who is buying what? And China wins out; there's a clear winner, which surprised me.

Aat: 不仅仅如此，因为乔·拜登也曾帮助增加了石油和天然气出口。所以我们知道美国石油和天然气出口呈上升趋势。但它们之间有可比性吗？实际上有，这让我有些惊讶。所以我所做的就是选择了能体现两国政府战略目标的数据。唐纳德·特朗普曾表示，我们希望我们的盟友（有时甚至强迫他们）购买我们的化石燃料。而中国则表示，看，我们有这么多清洁技术。他们永远不会说产能过剩，但我们确实生产超出自身消耗。我们希望能将它出口给你们。那么谁在购买什么？结果是中国胜出；有一个明显的赢家，这让我感到惊讶。

产油国与电能国：定义与对比

Oscar Boyd: And this is where we get into the narrative of pro-state versus electrostate. Do you just want to define what we mean by those two terms?

Oscar Boyd: 接下来，我们来谈谈“产油国”和“电能国”的概念。你能否解释一下这两个术语的含义？

Aat: Yeah, these terms are becoming more used, which is fun, but definitions are important. A classic pro-state (Producers of Fossil Fuels: 依赖化石燃料出口为其经济增长提供动力的国家) definition is a country that depends for a majority or a heavy percentage of its gross domestic product (GDP: 国内生产总值，衡量一个国家经济活动的指标) on fossil fuels, so 30% or so. You would typically think of a Middle Eastern country as a pro-state. But pro-states also have a certain characteristic: they behave in a way that they would like more people to buy their fossil fuels. So the US doesn't fall into the category of having a very large percentage of its GDP dependent on fossil fuels, but it does fall into the category of wanting other countries to buy fossil fuels. So the US is now more commonly called a pro-state. Electrostate (Electricity-Dependent State: 经济增长主要依赖电力而非石油和天然气的国家) is a new term. It's the term that says that country doesn't want to depend on petroleum, typically oil and gas, but on electricity. That electricity may come from all sorts of sources, may come from coal. But because electricity is a form of energy that can be converted more efficiently into other things, that country is making the bet that electricity is what's going to power their economic growth, and perhaps the electricity industries will become the export driver for that country. And China is referred to as an electrostate. You could also think of Iceland or Norway, which are heavily electric in their energy consumption, total energy consumption, as electrostates, though they don't export that much.

Aat: 是的，这些术语正变得越来越常用，这很有趣，但定义很重要。经典的产油国定义是，一个国家的大部分或很大一部分国内生产总值依赖于化石燃料，大约30%左右。你通常会认为中东国家是产油国。但产油国也有一个特点：它们的行为方式是希望更多人购买它们的化石燃料。因此，美国虽然不属于其GDP很大一部分依赖化石燃料的范畴，但它确实属于希望其他国家购买化石燃料的范畴。所以美国现在更常被称为产油国。电能国是一个新术语。它指的是一个国家不希望依赖石油（通常是石油和天然气），而是依赖电力。这种电力可能来自各种来源，也可能来自煤炭。但由于电力是一种可以更有效地转化为其他形式的能源，这个国家正在押注电力将为其经济增长提供动力，而且电力产业可能会成为该国的出口驱动力。中国就被称为电能国。你也可以把冰岛或挪威视为电能国，它们的能源消耗（总能源消耗）高度电气化，尽管它们的出口量并不大。

中美能源出口数据对比

Oscar Boyd: So you said you found a clear winner between the two. You said it was China. Give me the numbers.

Oscar Boyd: 那么你说你找到了两者之间的明显赢家，你说那是中国。请给我具体数字。

Aat: So the numbers really did surprise me. If you look at 2025 data as of July, which is the latest data we could find, China had exported about $120 billion worth of clean tech exports. And in that, I'm counting batteries, electric cars, solar panels, even electrical devices like transformers and wind turbines. US fossil fuel exports, specifically oil and gas which we can measure pretty clearly, amounted to about $80 billion until July. And actually, China hit a record in August in its clean tech exports, almost $20 billion.

Aat: 这些数字确实让我感到惊讶。如果我们看截至7月的2025年数据（这是我们能找到的最新数据），中国的清洁技术出口额约为1200亿美元。其中我计算了电池、电动汽车、太阳能电池板，甚至包括变压器和风力涡轮机等电气设备。而美国的化石燃料出口（仅限于石油和天然气，因为这部分可以清晰衡量）截至7月约为800亿美元。实际上，中国在8月份的清洁技术出口额创下新高，接近200亿美元。

Oscar Boyd: So, China exported in the first half of this year alone $40 billion more in green tech than the US did in fossil fuels. And you have a great graph in your newsletter showing this. We'll put a link in the description for anyone who wants to see it, wants to read it. Is this a new trend?

Oscar Boyd: 也就是说，中国今年上半年仅在绿色技术方面的出口就比美国在化石燃料方面多出400亿美元。你的通讯中有一张很棒的图表展示了这一点。我们会把链接放在描述中，供想看或想读的人参考。这是一个新趋势吗？

Aat: Well, I thought it was new, but even 2024, China just eked out ahead of the US in this comparison. So, China sold about $180 billion worth of clean tech last year, whereas all US oil and gas exports amounted to $150 billion. And worth noting, oil was at a much higher price in 2024 than it is this year.

Aat: 嗯，我原以为这是新趋势，但即便是在2024年，中国在这个比较中也只是略微领先于美国。去年，中国的清洁技术销售额约为1800亿美元，而美国所有的石油和天然气出口总额为1500亿美元。值得注意的是，2024年的油价远高于今年。

未来展望与挑战

Aat: Will this difference between the US and China persist, or will we see the US now go into turbo mode and try to increase its fossil fuel exports even further? So this remains to be seen. There are different ways to count the numbers that I have done. You could include upstream and midstream oil products. You could also include fossil fuel car exports, which the US does export in significant numbers, many millions of cars. And that way you could see that the US ekes out ahead of China. It could also, with this "drill baby drill" mantra, significantly increase its oil and gas exports. There's a limit because ramping that up requires private industry to do it, whereas in China, sometimes the government can decide that more exports are needed, and private industry follows. In the US, you'll have to coax them to do it. And we have seen that the oil and gas industry doesn't always play ball with the administration. It does need to make money. So, if the price of oil is too low, we might not see a significant rise in oil exports from the US. But clearly, there is a goal from the administration to try and become a bigger fossil fuel exporter.

Aat: 那么，中美之间的这种差异会持续下去吗？还是我们会看到美国现在进入“涡轮模式”，试图进一步增加其化石燃料出口？这仍有待观察。我所做的数字统计方式有多种。你可以包括上游和中游的石油产品。你也可以包括化石燃料汽车出口，美国确实出口了大量此类汽车，数百万辆。那样的话，你可能会看到美国略微领先于中国。它也可能凭借“钻吧，宝贝，钻！”（drill baby drill）的口号，大幅增加其石油和天然气出口。但这有一个限制，因为要扩大生产需要私营产业来完成，而在中国，有时政府可以决定需要增加出口，私营产业就会跟进。在美国，你必须说服他们去做。我们已经看到，石油和天然气行业并不总是与政府合作。它确实需要盈利。因此，如果油价过低，我们可能不会看到美国石油出口大幅增长。但显然，政府有一个目标，就是努力成为更大的化石燃料出口国。

谁是买家？

Oscar Boyd: And you noted earlier that the US is trying to make its allies purchase its fossil fuels. Who's buying China's green tech?

Oscar Boyd: 你之前提到，美国正试图让其盟友购买其化石燃料。那谁在购买中国的绿色技术呢？

Aat: Yes. So fossil fuels are consumed widely and that means a lot of people buy those fossil fuels. But for the US, European Union is the biggest client for especially liquefied natural gas (LNG: 液化天然气，将天然气冷却至-162°C液化，便于储存和运输), but it's trying to sell it even to China. Whereas for China, the customer base is also pretty vast because developing countries are quite interested in clean tech these days. We've talked about how Pakistan imported something like 25% of their entire power grid's capacity in solar panels in one year in 2024.

Aat: 是的。化石燃料被广泛消费，这意味着很多人购买这些化石燃料。但对美国来说，欧盟是最大的客户，特别是液化天然气。但美国甚至试图将其出售给中国。而对中国来说，客户群也相当广泛，因为发展中国家目前对清洁技术非常感兴趣。我们曾讨论过巴基斯坦在2024年一年内进口了相当于其整个电网25%容量的太阳能电池板。

Oscar Boyd: They're doing something similar with batteries this year, right?

Oscar Boyd: 他们今年在电池方面也在做类似的事情，对吗？

Aat: That's right. And this kind of story gets repeated in different countries around the world. So the other chart that I was pretty pleased to see in the story was this chart of electric car exports to different parts of the world coming from China, and how they start small and they all supercharge soon. So ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations: 东南亚国家联盟，由10个东南亚国家组成的区域政治经济组织) imported about a billion dollars worth of Chinese electric cars, LatAm (Latin America: 拉丁美洲，指美洲中南部以罗曼语族语言为主要语言的国家和地区) another billion, and the Middle East half a billion. Africa imported $200 million last year, up from almost zero a couple of years back.

Aat: 没错。这种故事在全球不同国家不断重演。所以，我在报道中看到另一张让我非常高兴的图表是关于中国电动汽车出口到世界各地的图表，展示了它们如何从少量开始，然后迅速飙升。例如，东盟进口了价值约10亿美元的中国电动汽车，拉丁美洲又进口了10亿美元，中东进口了5亿美元。非洲去年进口了2亿美元，而几年前几乎还是零。

全球可再生能源转型加速

Oscar Boyd: So we see from this data that China's exporting this massive amount of clean tech around the world, but actually primarily is using a lot of it at home. So most of the solar that it produces is installed in China. Most of the wind turbines that it produces are installed in China. And last week we saw another report from Ember (Ember Climate: 专注于加速全球电力行业向清洁能源转型的独立气候智库), which made headlines, and this was talking about the amount of electricity produced globally by renewables. What did that report say?

Oscar Boyd: 所以我们从这些数据中看到，中国正在向世界各地出口大量的清洁技术，但实际上，它主要是在国内使用这些技术。它生产的大部分太阳能电池板都安装在中国，生产的大部分风力涡轮机也安装在中国。上周我们看到了Ember发布的另一份报告，这份报告引起了广泛关注，它谈到了全球可再生能源发电量。那份报告说了些什么？

Aat: We have had a few times a day or a month when the total amount of electricity made from renewables – which includes solar, wind, and hydro – exceeded that from coal. Coal for a very long time has been the largest source of fuel for electricity production. But Ember's report states that in the first half of this year, for six months, renewables production exceeded coal. And if that continues for the second half of the year, which it might, then this will be the first year when renewables will have produced more electricity than coal. This is what they call a secular trend. This is likely to continue because renewables are getting cheaper and are being deployed much faster, even as we know that India, China, and a few other countries are still building coal power plants. And this is really good news because obviously the other thing about coal is it is the dirtiest fuel.

Aat: 我们曾有过一天或一个月，可再生能源（包括太阳能、风能和水力）发电总量超过了燃煤发电。长期以来，煤炭一直是发电的最大燃料来源。但Ember的报告指出，今年上半年，也就是六个月里，可再生能源发电量超过了燃煤发电。如果这种情况在下半年继续，这很可能发生，那么这将是可再生能源发电量首次超过煤炭发电量的一年。这被他们称为一个长期趋势。这种情况很可能会继续下去，因为可再生能源正变得越来越便宜，部署速度也越来越快，尽管我们知道印度、中国和其他一些国家仍在建设燃煤电厂。这确实是个好消息，因为显然，煤炭的另一个问题是它是最肮脏的燃料。

Oscar Boyd: Yeah, of course. So, for every unit of electricity, coal produces, say, x amount of emissions. Gas produces half that, and renewables produce almost none of the carbon emissions, even after accounting for all the carbon emissions that go into the production of renewables. So that is a very good story. Some of it is, of course, gas swapping out coal, which doesn't mean it's going entirely clean, but it is going slightly cleaner. And that story is something we covered on the podcast recently when we talked about the gas turbine shortage.

Oscar Boyd: 是的，当然。所以，每生产一个单位的电力，煤炭会产生，比如说，X量的排放。天然气产生的排放量是其一半，而可再生能源几乎不产生碳排放，即使考虑到可再生能源生产过程中产生的所有碳排放。所以这是一个非常好的故事。其中一部分当然是天然气取代煤炭，这并不意味着它变得完全清洁，但确实变得稍微清洁了一些。这个故事我们最近在播客中也讨论过，当时我们谈到了燃气轮机短缺的问题。

从“能源增加”到“能源替代”

Oscar Boyd: And there was another really interesting stat in that report and that was saying that growth in solar and wind generation outpaced the rise in global electricity demand. Why is that important?

Oscar Boyd: 那份报告中还有一个非常有趣的统计数据，那就是太阳能和风能发电的增长速度超过了全球电力需求的增长。这为什么很重要？

Aat: One way people have talked about the energy transition is moving from fossil fuels to clean energy. But if you look at the numbers, it has largely been about energy addition, because the world isn't simply swapping out fossil fuels for renewables. Instead, it was just using all energy sources a little more.

Aat: 人们讨论能源转型的一种方式是从化石燃料转向清洁能源。但如果你看数据，它在很大程度上一直都是关于能源增加的，因为世界并非简单地用可再生能源取代化石燃料。相反，它只是在所有能源上都多用了一点。

Oscar Boyd: Mhm.

Oscar Boyd: 嗯。

Aat: Now that renewables are growing faster than overall electricity consumption growth, it means renewables are starting to replace fossil fuels in the entire global mix. Obviously, this is happening in rich countries. The UK now gets 75% of its electricity from renewables, and coal power was shut down in 2024. So replacement has been happening in many countries, but at a global level, it was an addition story. Now, it might finally become a substitution story.

Aat: 既然可再生能源的增长速度超过了整体电力消费的增长，这意味着可再生能源开始在全球能源结构中取代化石燃料。显然，这在富裕国家正在发生。英国现在75%的电力来自可再生能源，燃煤发电已于2024年关闭。所以，在许多国家，替代一直在进行。但在全球层面，这曾是一个能源增加的故事。现在，它可能终于要变成一个能源替代的故事了。

Oscar Boyd: So previously, as countries were developing, their electricity demand was growing, and solar or other renewables were basically filling that gap.

Oscar Boyd: 所以以前，随着国家发展，它们的电力需求不断增长，太阳能或其他可再生能源基本上只是在填补这个缺口。

Aat: And some fossil fuels too.

Aat: 还有一些化石燃料。

Oscar Boyd: And some fossil fuels. Now, this report is saying renewables are eating fossil fuels' lunch.

Oscar Boyd: 还有一些化石燃料。现在，这份报告说可再生能源正在“抢夺”化石燃料的市场份额。

Aat: Starting to, maybe just nibbles.

Aat: 刚开始，也许只是小口地啃食。

Oscar Boyd: Maybe a little nibbles. Well, Ahat, thank you very much for joining me on this special bonus episode of Zero.

Oscar Boyd: 也许只是小口地啃食。好的，阿特，非常感谢你参加这期《零度》的特别加长版节目。

Aat: This was a good fun chat.

Aat: 这次聊天很愉快。

Oscar Boyd: We'll put links to Akshat's newsletter and the Ember Report in the show notes. Thank you very much for listening and we'll be back later this week with a regular episode of Zero.

Oscar Boyd: 我们会在节目说明中附上Akshat的通讯和Ember报告的链接。非常感谢各位收听，我们本周晚些时候会带来一期《零度》的常规节目。