Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the Sunday market futures. We are live. Thank you everybody for being here. I hope everyone had a great weekend and well, we're green. We are pretty freaking green. And the reason we are green, just like we were green at the end of the day on Friday after dealing with a pretty aggressive draw down that ended at around 2 pm Eastern on Friday. The reason we are green is because it looks like this shutdown is coming to an end, folks. It looks like this shutdown is coming to an end.

Uh we don't officially have every single detail on it. The majority of what I'm seeing in terms of headlines is that this shutdown is done. The Senate, yes, is in session right now. They will be taking a vote. Based on reporting from Politico and Bloomberg, it seems like they have enough Democratic votes to get the job done. And if it happens, then we've got an agreement to end the shutdown.

Some details that we have. The Senate will advance the House's stop gap measure and proceed with a funding bill that provides fullyear funding for the VA, agriculture, and military construction. Same thing with SNAP benefits. Funding for extending other agencies will be granted through January 30th. So, we're going to have to do this rodeo again in about two months, but at least it's better than, you know, being shut down for the next two months.

And Democrats have also secured a December vote to extend ACA subsidies. So, this is not the bill that is going to extend those ACA subsidies, at least not yet. But there's guarantees of backpay and rehiring for furloughed federal employees along with that vote in December, which is not an entire shutdown vote, but rather an ACA subsidy vote. I don't know how the Republicans are going to navigate that vote because that was kind of the main reason for why we've been shut down for the past 40 days. But this is better than nothing, and it looks like the shutdown is at least coming to an end. Uh, and as a result, you got futures that are green. You've got futures that are green.

So, we got a lot to talk about, a lot of headlines. I hope everyone had a great weekend. As you can see right here in the overnight markets, um, we are relatively green. We're about to open up again. Futures are green. Ethereum is the one making a move. It's been a minute since Ethereum had a nice little 5% day, but there you go. Actually, a 7% day. 3600 on Ethereum. 3650. And then Bitcoin. This thing got to 98,000 on Friday. It is at 106.2 up $4,480 on the day.

You got a nice two uh you have two green candlesticks on two assets that is, you know, realistically since October have just not been doing that well. And that means Coinbase, Micro Strategy, obviously BMR, uh those assets should benefit at 8 p.m. when the market opens. So, it's not too bad. It's not too bad. Again, this market continues to show how resilient it is.

There's a lot of different macro stats we got to talk talk about. And uh once the overnight markets open in 11 minutes, we'll go through some of those macro stats. Some of them are concerning, some of them are more bullish than bearish. Nonetheless, I think you want this Santa Claus rally or at least the market wants to have the Santa Claus rally. And in order to get this rally, we're going to need a big move. And uh the shutdown is at least going to help start that, which would be very nice to see.

I think the craziest thing that happened last Friday was obviously markets were red and it was annoying and it was an it was a red week. So, a lot of us, you know, expected markets probably to be red on Friday, but then it got really red and and it got red to the point where it was like, okay, what is going on? Like, seriously, what's happening right here? What's the headline? Like, what is the market so upset about? And no one really knew. You could point to a variety of different things, but you couldn't pinpoint the market going down as bad as it was at 1 p.m. on one specific thing.

And then by 240, we almost had an entire Vshape. I tweeted this picture at 3:05, and this is when the market was getting ready to Vshape. actually ended at 672 on the S&P 500. Sofi got to 25. Pounder got to 169. I mean, you had a lot of different things that got hit. And this was based on the Democrats potentially are ready to negotiate for a reopening headline and and then it became apparent, oh, all of this is because of the shutdown. I mean, that's at least what it felt like from the price action.

And today, we'll see when the overnight markets open if that continues. But, uh, that was the reason. And I guess it wasn't really labor market or Trump saying whatever he was saying last week in a variety of different tweets. Uh he did have some tweets over the weekend about a 50-year mortgage that we'll talk about. But um it seems like the shutdown was the sort of core catalyst for why we had this much pain and maybe that shutdown is going to end.

Trump might not have wanted the market to dip. Over the weekend, he was tweeting a bunch of different things. Obviously, he was probably annoyed that the markets were selling off. And this deal, whatever it ends up turning into, which is not going to be a perfect deal for either side, but it's at least going to extend the government to be open for the next two months. That's what we need. And it looks like that's what we're going to get uh in the next nine minutes when this opens up.

Also, there's still um they're still in session, right? So, while we're doing the show, we should probably get a vote, I would imagine, like probably in the next 30 minutes max, maybe in the next hour. And once we get that vote, we'll officially know if the markets are reopening. That's what you got. That is what you got. And it's very, very exciting to see.

Republicans and uh and enough Sen Democrats have reached a deal to end the government shutdown after 40 days. A source familiar tells Fox News. Okay, so you have Politico, Fox, Bloomberg, a ton of different people saying it's going to come through. And yeah, I guess in the next couple of either minutes, maybe couple of hours, but we should know pretty damn soon what this looks like.

Bitcoin's already acting like the deal is done. Bitcoin right there back above 106. Again, this is really just going to be a question of how much the market thinks this um deal is good enough to withstand potentially going into a Santa Claus rally. And then, you know, then we have to see how much the dip buyers come through.

But, if the core argument has been this year to buy the dip, if you've continued to buy the dip, I mean, so far it has indeed been rewarded. And if the shutdown was the lynch pin for why the buying the dip wouldn't be rewarded, well, if the shutdown reverses, then maybe buying the dip is going to be rewarded. and we're gonna see when that plays out.

Um, yes, we'll finally get some economic data. This is the other thing. Like, we will finally get to know what the hell is going on in the economy. I mean, no one like besides us honestly cares about the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Like, your friends and family probably don't even know what the BLS stands for because, you know, they don't care about like jobless claims, but for those of us that are tracking the markets, uh, yeah, it really matters. And in order to continue to track the markets on a day-to-day, we need that data. And it looks like we'll be getting that data.

Now, before we open the markets in about seven minutes, one other headline I want to talk about real quick and then we'll get into all the deeper stuff we've got going on is Nvidia. So, this just came out 30 minutes ago. Pretty damn bullish for Nvidia after a week of some pretty ugly headlines from OpenAI and Nvidia.

Nvidia orders 50% more wafers from TSMC amid Blackwell demand. Nvidia has asked TSMC to boost the 3 nanometer wafer output for black hole by up to 50% pushing capacity from roughly a 100,000 to 110,000 a month to 160,000 according to local reports. That's an extra 35,000 wafers monthly tied to Blackwell chips.

Jensen Wong said demand is strengthening month by month and that all three HBM suppliers have already scaled capacity to support the ramp. That also explains why Micron has been hitting all-time highs. But if this news is true, which some of the local reporting in Taiwan seems to suggest that it is true, I know last week the main headline that um was annoying to the markets was this whole OpenAI wants to get a federal backs stop guarantee and then the Jensen said China's going to beat us.

And you know, those were annoying headlines and they kind of muddied a lot of the markets. But at its core, are those headlines that break away from the AI trade? Probably not. I mean, if anything, they're headlines that reinforce how much capex is going to be spent.

So from that perspective, bullish even without China for Nvidia to be ordering 50% more wafers from TM TSMC. Remember, we can't sell any of those wafers or any of those black wall chips to China. And Trump made that pretty clear uh last week that, you know, they're likely not even going to give you the downscale version of the Nvidia chips to China. Same thing with AMD.

The fact that there's still that much demand means that domestically and internationally outside of China, Nvidia should be doing okay. And you know, Nvidia ended the day on Friday at 190. Like for all the pain that we had to go through, Hood ended at 13175 after going to 120. Pounder went to 169, got back up to 180. And then Nvidia fell all the way to 178, ended up gapping up back to 190 again. S&P 500 at 672. So there is a lot of room for some of these names to make up.

See, Bur just tweeted on Pounder. Oh boy. All right, four minutes before the overnight markets open. Let's see what did Bur say. We know that this position is going to be very important for him. Wow, he put out a lot. Okay, Bur, what does he say? Doesn't surprise me one bit that Alex Karp and his ontology Palunteer cannot crack a simple 13F, a fundamental principle of any rigorous ontological epistemological model, whether philosophical or in data science, is recognizing when your information set is insufficient for valid conclusions.

Okay, I don't know what the hell he's talking about. The only nuance that Bur could be making right here is what we talked about when the uh the position was disclosed, which is that he might not be short Palunteer. He might just have a ton of puts on Palunteer, which is different, right? Because if you're shorting something, you can have infinite losses. If you have puts on something, the most you can lose is the uh overall premium that you paid for the puts.

Um, so when he's saying I'm surprised that Palunteer cannot crack a simple 13F, the the immediate gut reaction I get from this is that he's saying Palunteer doesn't realize that he's not actually short the the company, which is fine, but if you still have a massive put position, you're still betting against it.

Now, if he's trying to imply that he doesn't have a put position and he's not short, well, that's very confusing to me because why would you disclose your 13F early, you know, and tweet all the things that he's been tweeting about AI bubble, yada yada. I mean, obviously, you put two and two together, you think, okay, the guy's making a bearish bet on pounder and Nvidia.

So, unless he's just toying with people and he's completely out of the puts, which we're not going to find out for another 45 days. By the way, all the 13Fs we will get by Friday. So, we will know if Howard Marks added to Grab. We will know what Ray Dalio has been doing. We will know learn what Bill Aman's been doing with Google and Nike and all that stuff. So, we're gonna get a lot of that data.

But, this is a very weird argument by Bur. I mean, if he's saying that Palunteer doesn't understand a 13F, his 13F, from my understanding, had a notional value of 950 million of puts on Palunteer, 187 million of puts on Nvidia. He might be out of the position. That's fine. But saying that pounder can't crack a 13F and then you know implying he's out of the position. Well, how the hell will pounder know? No one can know. It is illegal for anyone to know except him because it it legally doesn't have to be disclosed within the next 45 days.

So, no one freaking knows unless he's saying he's actually h he has puts on it, not short, and Karp is going off of him on being short pounder, but he's trying to tell the world that he's not short. It's like, okay, well, technically, sure, you're not short, but you still, if you still have a bearish bet, I think all of Karp's comments would relatively be the same, right? There wouldn't be that much nuance in terms of difference. So, not sure exactly what Bur is implying there, but we're going to find out and see this week kind of how this plays out.

All right, 30 seconds, folks. Let's see if we can get the green, if it can come back. Obviously, Friday was a bit rough. We had a nice little recovery towards the end of the day. probably made everybody's weekends better. If the shutdown was the reason and now the shutdown is basically done, then it looks like we should be able to get a relatively green market open and we're going to see what we get in the overnight markets.

All right, folks. Here we go. 5 seconds. Let's see what we've got. Thank you everybody for being here. The overnight market. And here we go. Robin Hood 133 on the open that's up 5% 134. Palanteer 181 that's up 2% on the open. Tessy's up 1% 435 from 429. Nvidia is 19180 up a little bit. S&P obviously up half a percent 674. AMD 237 that's up three bucks. SoFi 2877. That's up about a$150 on SoFi.

Bit mine is up. Okay, hold on. Bit mine doesn't show on Weeble. Let me go on my phone and see what I've got. 4453. Okay, cool. 44 53. Bit mine's up 10%. Bit mine is up 10 11%. $4.55. Bit mine is green. Oaklo's up 3%. DWA's up 2%. Zeta is up 1%. Oracle's up 1%. AS is up 2%. Archer is up 2%. AMD is up 2%. Rocket Lab up 2.4. Grabs up about a third of a percent. TSM's up 1.83%. Job's up 1.6. Where is Nvidia? Nvidia's at 19230.

Look, I think the biggest issue with Meta, and we talked about it a lot last week, is the fear of no ROI from their like capex spend. Even with those fears, I mean, it is cheap when you look at the numbers. So, if you're buying Meta right here, I can't blame you. Uh maybe you want to give it some time before you really heavily DCA. But look, when you go through the numbers, Meta is freaking cheap. It's hard to deny it's cheap. It's just you got to look past the concerns on if there's going to be a meaningful return on capex.

I want to play this clip on the state of the consumer. Uh the Olm podcast had a pretty large debate about this. I'm curious what side you guys are on, but we've seen a lot of different perspectives on what's going on with the consumer. Here is uh here's a little bit of analysis here from Brad Gersonner as well and then we'll keep talking from there.

The first one is just there's growing signs um you know the consumer is pulling back and you know you heard it out of Chipotle, you heard it out of Cava, you heard it out of NCL, you heard it out of JetBlue and and you know the the nature of it is we have this two-tier economy. The low-end consumer is faltering the higherend consumer is hanging in there but the consumer thing is making people nervous.

Now uh compounding that is US credit card delinquencies are now uh uh back to two you know 2009 levels right and so you have okay consumer cracking a little bit delinquencies you know and now we're seeing regional banks roll over etc we're seeing the credit markets beginning to crack a little bit credit spreads blowing out a little bit.

The good news about this is we still have firepower. So, what's gone on in this earnings season, you know, this next slide, basically earnings have come in really strong, you know, so we have 70% of companies that are beating. They're beating by wide margins, you know, in earnings. But if you look at the forecast, you know, basically earnings have come in about 11% higher than last year and the stocks are up about 13 or 14%. But the real question is as we roll into next year.

I tend to agree the low-end consumer who pays a lot on their credit cards, on their car loan, etc. is clearly hurting. We see these layoffs, these layoffs are are hurting some of these people as well. And so when you look at the multiples of the market, how do we look at it from an altimter perspective? We still believe that owning all of compute like we have for 3 years and a this AI trade has room to run but there obviously multiples have come up a lot.

AI. Let's talk about AI. So, let's get into some debt analysis. I mean, this is one of the other big headlines last week that really got the market pissed off. Take a look at this. Borrowing to fund AI data center spending exploded in September and so far in October. Meta 30 billion of bonds. Oracle 18 billion, 75 billion in total. Then you had Google with around three billion. And you've got more that is on the way. Microsoft as well getting into the action.

I know as a result, we're going to be taking on more debt to be able to fund what we're doing in regards to data centers. There was a great video by The Plain Bagel this weekend as well that kind of went deeper into like the circular financing. And you know when you break it down at the end of the day it obviously feels very circular just looking at it from a baseline level. The thing that gets rid of the circularity is hey are these companies going to be able to produce enough revenue to get the revenue to be able to meaningfully make a difference in the overall amount of spending that these companies are doing?

But she was point blank asked about this circular financing and here is what she had to say. She kind of rejected the uh the entire premise of it in the in the first place. So let's take a listen to what she had to say here. So you got the OpenAI CFO saying, "Hey, this whole circular thing that you guys are thinking, you know, we do this and then they do that and the only reason they can do that is because we do this with them." That's not the case. And the reason that's not the case is because we have a lot of growth. We have a lot of ROI from the actual money that we're spending, even if we're not profitable yet. And at its core, this is eventually going to turn into a very large business. Here's the part where she talks about their enterprise business, uh, which she says is growing 9x year-over-year, 900%, way faster than the consumer side of the business.

Here's Jeff Bezos, who was at an American business conference over the weekend once again making up the argument about data centers in space. Well, for me there's a bunch of reasons for, you know, I but literally since I was a kid, literally a kid here in Miami, I have been thinking that ultimately if we want to keep growing our civilization and using more energy per person and so on and so on, we're eventually going to have to move all of our heavy industry off Earth. We can start to build factories in space. We can start to build data centers in space. We will ultimately get the materials not even from earth but get the materials from the moon and near earth objects and asteroids. We have unlimited energy in space and unlimited material resources in space.

All right, they're going to start voting. We should know in about an hour, folks. We should know in about an hour. There you go. Looks like that's what the market wanted. Looks like that's what the market wanted. Here's the question I'm going to put in the chat for everybody. Curious what people think. um red or green tomorrow? Red or green? And the the sort of underlying question I'm asking is bear trap or bull trap. What do we think? Do we think the market holds on to the government shutdown news? Is that enough of a catalyst? Or do we get whipsaw again tomorrow?

We had a bunch of different pieces of news last week that were super bullish, then we just got whips out to the downside. I mean based on this price action and price action can be very deceiving. It does feel like this is what the market wanted again last week was just so weird because there were so many reasons you can imagine the market was red but then on Friday the shutdown ended up being the reason why we reversed. So I I have to assume the shutdown reversing is the reason why we we Vshape up. Uh and if that's the case hopefully we continue green.

The agreement lasts until January 30th. Until January 30th. Couple of you guys saying bull trap. You know, I I can't dismiss that it could be a bull trap because there are some things that we got in terms of headlines last week that weren't bullish. But then again, it's hard for me to like latch on to those arguments because we're getting towards the end of the year. The end of the year tends to be bullish. We have earnings growth that has still been phenomenal. You have Nvidia earnings coming up and then you got rate cuts.

I do think tomorrow there's going to be some people taking profits just because they are getting tired of the back and forth and they might just want to say, you know what, I'm out. This is it. I'm done for the year. I'm taking my profits. I don't care if I have to pay taxes on it. But I don't want to wait until the end of December and then there's some announcement that comes up and it messes up everything. I could definitely see that happening tomorrow. So, that's one thing that I think we all have to pay attention to.

But, nonetheless, market seems to like the shutdown news. S&P 500, right? They're up half a percent, 674. We fell all the way to 661 last week on Friday. All right, folks. That's what we got. Let's get into a bunch of this other macro news and keep going from there.