Good morning everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market open. We are live. It is Monday, November 10th. We are back and we've got another week to analyze the global capital equity markets. Thank you everybody for being here. Hopefully everyone had a good weekend. We got a lot to talk about. We've got a green pre-market and the reason we are green is because the shutdown is basically over.

Technically it's not because it's got to get voted on by the House, but the Senate last night, if you were on the market future show, you saw that 60 votes were indeed granted in the affirmative to end the shutdown. We needed 60. You had 52 Republicans. You got eight Democrats to join them. And as a result, the government shutdown is now headed. At least the bill, the procedural vote that ended in the Senate last night now goes to the House. The House likely passes it. And if that's the case, we will not have a shutdown anymore.

Most likely, it's going to take a couple days. I don't know if it happens tonight, but the House has been out of session since September 19th. So, it's been a while. And Mike Johnson just called for an emergency session open last night, which means over the next 48 hours, you likely will hopefully get some progress on the shutdown being resolved. And if that's the case, we get to get the government reopen.

And as a result, the futures love it. S&P 500 677, we are up 1%. Tesla is up 2%. Nvidia is up 3.4. Nvidia fell all the way to 179. Now it's at 194. Robin Hood fell to 120 last week. Friday was definitely an ugly day. By 2 PM on Friday, everything pretty much changed as the market realized that the shutdown was likely not going to happen. It seems like the reason we had that much of a decline on Friday is because of the shutdown taking place. That reversal caused the entire market to reverse. We're not back to all-time highs yet, but 677, not too bad given we were pushing 659 on Friday.

Grab is up 6%. We got some headlines on Grab. We'll talk about in a second. Google right there up 2%. SoFi is up 3.34. SoFi was 25, now at 29. Amazon back to 248. Meta back to 630. Meta fell to $61 on Friday. Absolutely crazy. Meta right there back to 630. Apple right here 269. SMCI up 4%. Bitcoin and Ethereum finally beginning to cooperate a little bit. We do have some updates on Bitmine that we'll talk about in a second as well. Ethereum right there 3600. Bitcoin 106. Bit mine felt to 35. That's up 8% as you got Bitmine right there at 4336.

So, it's been a pretty good 48 hours in terms of getting updates on this shutdown. And you know, regardless of what you think about the shutdown from a political perspective, getting it resolved at least is enough to get the markets to be consolidating whatever choppiness we had and potentially getting ready for the next leg up. Obviously, the next biggest catalyst we have is Nvidia. We did have a bunch of earnings this morning that we'll talk about, but Nvidia is going to be the big one in a couple weeks. And you know that will kind of decide the trajectory of where this market goes. But we got the shutdown seemingly done and as a result we should hopefully be able to continue going further from there.

So thank you everybody for being here. Let's get into all the headlines. We got a lot of other stuff to talk about this week. We don't have a ton of earnings. The most important thing this week quite frankly is two things. Number one, I want to see price action this week and see can we continue to make sense of the gains that we had in October. Again we had really good big tech earnings. A lot of those stocks were able to get somewhat of a lift. Some of those stocks didn't get a lift like a Meta and Microsoft. So, I'm curious to see kind of how the market interprets it a couple weeks later. If there's dip buyers that are coming in, if there's these fund managers that are chasing performance, chasing yield, what do they do towards the end of the year?

And then in terms of earnings, you got Rocklab, Cory, Regetti, ESTS, Big Bear AI, and Terraolf today. So, I'll be live after the close and we'll see what we got. We had Instacart in the morning. You have Nebas tomorrow. I know that's an important one. Oaklos tomorrow as well after the bell. You have se Limited, that's big in Southeast Asia. Then you got Cisco, Disney, Circle, ESBET, New Bank, Redcat, AAT, and JD. So, you do have some important companies that are reporting this week. It's nothing like it was last week, but the week after that is when we get Nvidia and you know, then we're going to see what happens to the broader market once we get Nvidia.

VG, we also had their earnings this morning. We'll talk about that. I think they had a pretty good earnings and stock was kind of foreshadowing that yesterday. VG right there. Wow. 16%. All right, looks like they added decent earnings. I know this one got cut in half after the BP lawsuit, but it's nice to see a company that actually makes money. I think they did about 470 million in net income this quarter getting a bit of a bid right there. $9.33. That's up 16% in the pre-markets.

All right, so let's get into a bunch of different headlines and let's start off with this shutdown news. Let's get a little bit of an update right here on in terms of exactly what happened and what are the steps going forward and then we will keep going from there.

There are going to be a few more votes in the Senate. We've got to have at least one more vote in the House but at this point the shutdown could be done within the next couple days and within the next week. Now, the agreement that they put together, it funds part of the government, including things like SNAP, agriculture, veterans programs for the rest of the 2026 fiscal year. The for the rest of the government and continues funding until January 30th. It also goes ahead and reverses those attempted firings of federal employees during the shutdown, make sure that all the federal employees are going to get their back pay. And Democrats have been promised a vote on extending those healthcare tax credits by the second week of December on a bill of their choosing.

And while again these eight Democrats, they've said the deal on the table right now it's the best they were going to get, others within their party, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, were livid that the shutdown is going to end with no concrete deal on those healthcare tax credits.

Now, this is the most important takeaway from the shutdown. The shutdown is essentially or the deal that they've negotiated is just kicking the can down the road. So January 30th there will be another vote on the shutdown and if we can't get to any conclusion by January 30th then we will shut down again. So that is the kind of annoying part of everything that is going on. However, it will get furled employees to get back. It will allow it will be a reversal of a lot of the layoffs. It will fund SNAP benefits by funding the agricultural sector of the economy. Uh, and it will also make sure that a healthcare vote happens in December with a renegotiation as per what the Democrats have negotiated in this bill for October or for January for those ACA subsidies.

And that's the reason why Oscar is down right now for a lot of people wondering what's going on with Oscar. Well, Oscar was primarily contingent and not just Oscar, but a lot of these healthcare names on those ACA subsidies being extended. Right now, it is not confirmed that they are extended. Oscar right here down about 8.5%. All the healthcare names taking a bit of a hit. UNH right there. UNH was 390 two weeks ago. UNH is down to 317. So I mean you gotta be ready to embrace the volatility of a a name that has sold off aggressively.

The most important thing I forgot to mention that we're looking for this week outside of the earnings is 13Fs. 13Fs and 13G. So we obviously had Michael Burry's come out already and that's where he disclosed his Palantir and Nvidia bearish position. Um but we're going to get Berkshire Hathaway, um David Tepper, Howard Marx, a lot of these people over the next coming days.

I mean, realistically, we should start getting 13Fs either tonight or by Wednesday. Uh, the deadline is Friday to see all of them. And we're going to see what some of these super investors did in terms of making moves. I wonder if Berkshire continue to buy the UNH dip. I wonder if Howard Marks continued to buy Grab. So, those are a lot of questions that I think are going to be really important to take a look at this week.

Uh, remember the top three stocks that were bought in Q2 as per the last filings of 13Fs were UNH, Google, and Amazon. So, I wonder, you know, did people take profits? I mean, Google, you know, I think the average price people bought at was 172, now it's at 290. Um, Amazon was at around 219. Now it's at 240. UNH got to 230, now it's at 310. So, going to be curious to see how that all plays out. But the reason the healthcare stocks are down today is because there is no confirmation on these ACA subsidies and you're going to have to just keep waiting until January to kind of figure out where exactly goes from there.

Okay, let's transition real quick into Grab. So, why is Grab up right here in the pre-market? Two reasons. Number one, the Grab GoTo merger is getting a lot more excitement. For those that have been keeping up with the Grab story, Goto is one of their largest competitors in Southeast Asia, particularly in Indonesia. Uh the Indonesian government, you know, this is not just Bloomberg creating a rumor like they did five months ago, although they had some pretty good sources for those rumors. This is a representative from the Indonesian president's office saying, "We are actively looking for a way for these two companies to merge. Not the fintech part of GoTo, but the ride hailing part." And they're talking about how important it is to make sure that there's stable employment for drivers, merchants, etc. that work on the goto platform which is or the go-to parent company, which is their their platform beneath that is Gojek. The problem is GoJek is not having the best financials and Grab is having really good financials. Also a merger is why the government is a bit more excited.

So that's one reason the stock is up. Another reason is Grab is starting to utilize their 7 billion in cash. They made an investment today in Vay technology. CEO Anthony Tan. We believe the future of mobility in Southeast Asia will be a hybrid model that relies on the expertise of our driver partners alongside autonomous vehicles and remote driving services. The initial investment will help accelerate VA's remote driving technology development and create valuable technical and operational synergies for Grab's long-term mobility strategy. It will also support Vay expansion in the US where they serve a growing segment of consumers who prefer to not be car owners and are looking for more flexible affordable and mobility options.

This is the third investment we ride may mobility and then they technology that grab is doing in the autonomous space. They invested 60 million with the potential to invest another 350 million over the next year which would be 400 million. it would be a pretty sizable investment. And I guess you could basically say that Grab is getting very excited about the future of AV and this kind of hybrid model between autonomous vehicles and the current state of mobility.

I don't know if that's enough to really make the stock move. I mean, I'm happy it's up 6%, but then again, Grab was at $6, you know, last week. It was at $6 for the majority of September. So, I think you're going to need some more concrete evidence to get this one to really make a move. It's nice to see a little bit of, you know, pre-market movement right there. But overall, I think the market's going to want to see exactly what the goal of this cash injection is into these companies and then, you know, how it ultimately is accreted to the business. So, good stuff. I don't think it's bad. Ultimately, we've got to see a little bit more meat on the bones for the market to get excited. But that is why the stock is up 6% in the pre-market.

Bit mine. All right. How much did Tom Lee buy? Well, he bought a decent chunk. 110,000 Ethereum over the past week. They now own 2.9% almost 3% of the entire Ethereum supply. So why did they buy this much Ethereum? Well, Tom Lee said on this press release that the dip was pretty attractive. So Tom Lee, the recent dip in ETH prices presented an attractive opportunity and Bitmine increased its ETH purchases this week. To me, it is evident that Wall Street is very interested in tokenizing assets onto the blockchain, creating greater transparency and unlocking new value for issuers and investors. This is the key fundamental story and supports our view that Ethereum is a super cycle story over the next decade.

I mean, that's kind of the thesis that again we've been talking about for Ethereum for a long time. It is going to be a volatile ride and so that volatility, you know, you're going to have to be able to navigate as the ride continues. But nonetheless, it is nice to see that they bought a decent chunk of ETH. They also increased their cash holdings from 389 million to 398. So if we do fall below a 1 MNAV, which I think we were at for a little bit last week and I think now with the updated ETH numbers, we might be a bit above 1 MNAV. But it's enough for him to buy back stock and it's also enough for the company to continue issuing shares.

Again, I know ETH and BMR is just a roller coaster ride. And if you want to get off that ride, then, you know, it's you're able to get off that ride. But, it's just one of those things where the upswings are massive, the down swings are also massive, and you just have to ask yourself, how much do you want to size it as a percentage of the portfolio to deal with that type of volatility? And yeah, for those that get into BMNU, which is the 2x leverage version of this, there you go. That's up 17% in the pre-markets, but it was down freaking 40% last week, right? So, it's one of those things about how do you embrace that volatility? But that is what we have for BMR and Grab right here in the pre-market.

Okay, so Nvidia, let's talk about what happened with Nvidia last night, which also was pretty damn bullish and I think was exciting to see. Now, Nvidia made a request to TSMC for more wafers for their Blackwell chip, which you would only be doing if you had more demand. And it does seem like they are getting a lot more demand.

So, Nvidia orders 50% more wafers from TSMC, which is one of their largest suppliers, amid Blackwell demand. They've asked them to push capacity from 110,000 a month to 160,000. That's an extra 35,000 monthly wafers tied to Blackwell chips. This is all without China because Trump said they're not going to be able to sell into China at least as of last week. And Jensen Huang said demand is strengthening month by month and that all three HBM suppliers like Micron, SK Hynix, etc. have already scaled capacity to support the ramp.

And that's why Micron is continuing to hit all-time highs. Micron right there 247. Wow. Up another 4%. I mean shout out to those who are long Micron. This was I mean there's a lot of semi-names that have done well. This one was stuck for a good year at 65. It really wasn't making that much of a move. I think everyone if you understood the basics of HBM you understood like okay there's going to be plenty of demand for memory. So I remember they came out they said we are booked to capacity for all of 2024. No all of 2025 because they said this at the end of 2024 and the stock was down 5% the next day. So you kind of just have to be patient on this one. And as it played out in terms of a thesis, you know, you got more than a double on your hand. Micron right there at 247.

So what does this mean for Nvidia? Well, I think it means even without China revenues, Jensen is seeing an increased level of demand for Blackwell. That is very important as you need more and more hyperscalers that need to be investing in their capex and all of them told us they were going to be investing upwards of 100 billion each going into 2026. Most of them getting closer to 100 billion by the end of the year. Uh Google at 93 and Meta at 72. So, I mean, it seems like the demand story for Nvidia is not going anywhere.

And here's a chart on Nvidia that I think is really important and then we'll get into some of the earnings that we have this morning. Um, take a look at this. I saw this this morning and once again, it just goes to show you what a bull market should consist of. So, back when Nvidia was trading $46 a share in July of 2023 when it really started having the types of earnings that it was having, it was trading at 158 times. So it was trading at 158 times earnings at $46. Now at $188, Nvidia trades at 50 times. And if you go a couple years out forward, it's trading at 28 times.

So it really is quite incredible. It is quite incredible to see the level of stock price appreciation with the level of earnings compression in terms of the multiple, meaning the growth is outpacing the expansion of the multiple. And you're seeing a really healthy, I think, $5 trillion company, which yes, it's worth five trillion. and people hear that and see it's worth more than two Canadas and people freak out. But if the earnings are growing and they can continue to grow at the level they're growing at, I think that's why it becomes easy to hold on to an Nvidia position.

So if this Blackwell demand is only getting better and TSM is continuing to say that Nvidia wants more and more chips from us, then it likely means that even without China, demand for Nvidia strong and the AI thesis is likely not going anywhere. So makes sense for Nvidia being green right here in the pre-market. Again, Nvidia got to 178 on Friday. Nvidia right now at 194.52.

Speaking of Nvidia, let's get into some earnings that are tied to Nvidia. First of all, you had Coreweave, which is up right now in the pre-markets. Coreweave did have earnings today. Core right there up 4.75%. Uh Jensen Huang has an investment in Coreweave, and you know, this company doing well is going to be very important also for Nvidia. Not to mention, we got Nebius tomorrow, which is going to be very important.

51 cents a share of a loss and 1.28 billion in revenue is what you had from coreweave. I think that is a beat on the top and the bottom. Let me just confirm right there. But the internal nuances of core I have to go a bit deeper to understand. I know that their debt to equity ratio is aggressive and um yes, we do have Rocklab today and obviously there's going to be a lot more momentum for it, but nonetheless, that's what you have right there for Core.

Oh, wait. Is Core aftermarket? Oh, it is aftermarket. Okay, I got the wrong stats in. All right, so Oh, those are Sorry. Sorry. Those are what the market's expecting. Sorry about that. So 51 cents is what the market's expecting with 1.28 billion in revenue. Okay, so today after the bell, we're going to see what happens. I was wondering why Corwe was up 5%. I thought it was because of the earnings, but I guess that's just based on the broader market going higher. So we'll get Coreweave after the bell and then we'll get Nebius as well tomorrow. Nebius right here up 3.8% again. Nebius got all the way down to 102 on Friday. Coreweave got down to 101. Both of those getting a rebound as we're seeing a bit of green right here across the board.

Yeah. So Coreweave after the bell. Wolf will be after the bell as well. It's going to be a big day after the bell. Wolf again has that stake from Google. Then you got Rocket Lab and AS. You got space, you have Big Bear AI, and then you have a obviously a lot of the GPU oriented data center plays that will be reporting. Big Bear right there up four and a half% as well in the pre-markets.

Now, another thing that we could see going into 2026 is a $2,000 dividend. This is what Trump tweeted yesterday. I don't think it's legitimately going to be a $2,000 stimmy check based on the clarification comments by Vance that we're going to listen to in a second. But you could tell Trump was mad yesterday. He started tweeting about a lot of different things. He said, "We are taking in trillions of dollars and soon begin paying down our enormous debt. 37 trillion record investment in the USA plants and factories going up all over the place. A dividend of at least 2,000 a person. not including highincome people will be paid to everyone."

which obviously sounds like a stimmy check but that's you know not really what they're going to do and that would be printing about $400 billion I really doubt they're going to do that especially if the whole goal of the tariffs is to pay down the debt like if they increase the debt by issuing $400 billion wouldn't seem to make a lot of sense.

which makes it seem like the 2000 dividend is already kind of baked in and Trump is trying to, you know, kind of make an argument for for the public perception there. There's two pieces of analysis here. Number one is that based on the stuff that I'm reading and what I could be reading could be incredibly wrong, but it seems like the Supreme Court decision might not go in Trump's favor. And, you know, a month ago when I originally heard about the case, I thought there was no way he was going to lose. And you know, as you get deeper into the logistics of it, it does look like even some of the conservative justices are not going to vote to say that tariffs are uh legal in the way that Trump has conducted him.

So, I think Trump is trying to get the public to be on his side. had multiple tweets yesterday about why tariffs are the most important thing for national security and kind of the same talking points he's been having over the past couple of weeks now because he knows that if it gets reversed and the American public starts to turn on the idea of tariffs which largely you know back in April everyone was upset because the market crashed but once the market recovered people kind of forgot I mean we we stopped talking about tariffs if that conversation comes back into the fold Trump wants it to be on the positive side so there's an argument that the Supreme Court doesn't potentially uh go in his favor and Trump is trying to, you know, pivot the discussion.

The other argument here is what would that do for inflation? And I think there's kind of two layers to this argument. One could argue that if we printed $400 billion, obviously two, you know, 2,000 per person, 200 million people. You would probably have a cap of 75,000 for um income that qualifies if you're single, 150,000 if you are a married couple. This was back in COVID. If you make more than 75,000 as a single person, you would not get the stimulus. Um 400 billion would be inflationary, right? like I don't think JPOW or even the new incoming Fed person would be happy about $400 billion of stimulus.

However, one could also say that if you go the Elon perspective of AI is incredibly deflationary and forget just AI is a macro tailwind for deflation. you have all these layoffs that are taking place and that's going to be deflationary because if people get laid off and they don't have a job, they're not going to be spending as much money that you kind of have to inject some money into the system to keep the growth going up as high as it is. And believe it or not, I think that the the the second layer of that, the idea of layoffs and AI being deflationary means that if you put 400 billion into the economy, we wouldn't have that much inflation. It is kind of believable.

Now granted, my gut tells me we're going to have a lot more inflation and there's not going to be enough deflation from AI or layoffs to be able to offset the 400 billion that you would put in, but there is like a pseudoeconomic argument you can make for the fact that maybe that 400 billion would be, if we did print it, not as inflationary. I don't actually think he's going to print $400 billion. It's just the way that the tweet sounded does make it seem like a dividend of at least 2,000 a person, not including highincome people. That almost makes it sound exactly what the wording was during COVID about, hey, if you make a certain amount of money, you know, you're not going to be able to qualify for these checks, but if you don't, if you're under 75,000 or whatever, then you get these checks. That could obviously be the argument for why uh some people are thinking that they're going to get a check.

So, my like if if you had to, you know, gun to my head or are they going to print $2,000 checks? No. If they do, get ready to buy some equities because we are going so risk on. We saw what happened in 2020 after they printed the stimmy checks. We know that Robinhood is going to get a ton of new accounts. We know that crypto is going to catch a bid. Like, we know we're going to basically create a bubble if that happens. And this time, maybe a lot of us can time it better. Um, but I don't think they're actually going to give out $2,000 to everybody, especially when Trump's been saying we need to pay off the debt. And I think, you know, that's the most important thing as well.

Now, in terms of the health of this bull market, couple charts right here that I want to show everybody. Um, you know, I know there's a lot of bears right here saying we're frothy, but take a look at this chart right here. Are we that frothy? I mean, look at the IPO market. In 2025, we've had 56 IPOs. We haven't had a ton of IPOs. Dot com bubble, we had 511. 2021 we had about 250 in the spack boom. 2025 we've had a little bit over 50. We've not had a massive amount of IPOs. All the major companies like Stripe, Discord, like these companies have not gone public. Klarna is like one of the major ones that did and Klarna's IPO has not really been the best. And a lot of these IPOs, they haven't done that well if the companies haven't put up earnings. I mean Figma, you know, went up 3x in a day, but then Figma came back down to reality after people ended up just selling it off. So, we didn't have some crazy crazy level of exuberance in the market via M&A or IPOs. And I think that's pretty healthy. And that also sets up 2026 to have a lot more IPOs come into the market, you know, without having this massive level of uh exuberance there.

Uh, another chart right here in terms of shutdowns. So stocks were higher during the shutdown, but not by much. As you can see right here for 2025, we started on October 1st. It looks like we're ending on November 9th. Uh stocks have been higher 20 out of 22 times a year after the government opened back up. So whether it's Democrat or Republicans, the S&P 500 on average is up 12.7% 12 months after the uh shutdown has ended. And the only two times we were negative was 2018 and 1983 and then 1976. So three times out of about 20 that we were negative. Most of them have been green. So if that follows what we're seeing then, you know, we likely have a green market 12 months from now. Obviously, if earnings can continue to hold up, which will be very important.

Open AI, here's a headline this morning. Open AI is weighing a move into consumer health apps. OpenAI is exploring consumer health tools, including a personal health assistant or an app that can put all your medical data into one place. the company has brought in new health product leadership and says Chachi already sees a huge volume of health questions.

I think this is a massive massive argument for um for the consumer world and the reason for this is because uh OpenAI has a ton of people that ask healthcare questions to it every single day. We looked at a couple of uh videos yesterday from the OpenAI CFO and they talked about this idea of how fast the company is moving, how fast they're growing, why they're able to justify spending 1.4 trillion even though they're doing 20 billions of dollars of revenue. And the reason is because of all these different verticals that they're getting into. One of those verticals being massive enterprise adoption which the CFO said is growing 9x year over year. The other adoption might be this consumer health play.

I mean I'm sure people have asked OpenAI or ChatGPT a question around their health and have gotten an answer. There's plenty of stories of people, you know, really getting some life-saving advice by asking Chat a question, not asking it to Google, then going to some random blog that gives you health advice. There's always a gray area between what these chatbots are able to say from a healthcare perspective. But if they can formalize it into a product that is more sophisticated around an AI assistant for health, not saying that's going to blow up, but it could be one of the best use cases of AI. I know Siri or I feel like Siri would have a meaningful opportunity because they already have your Apple health data to go after that as well. And then obviously Gemini is probably going to be in the mix. A more healthier version of WebMD. Exactly. So, uh, you're just seeing a lot more verticals for AI increasing. And if those verticals can substantially increase and actually generate meaningful forms of revenue, that could be your bullcase for AI.

Yeah, a couple of you saying your legend is bugging a little bit. Looks like a lot of people are using the platform as soon as the market opens. S&P up 1% above 1%. Wow, 678 guys. If we can get to 680, I think that's a very important level for us to reach even psychologically, which would be nice. Google right there 283. That's green. SoFi 2901 trying to get up there. Nvidia is up three and a half and then S&P is up 1% as well.

you know someone's pissed off this morning and that person is the same person who was tweeting about Palunteer last night. Michael Burry put out this tweet. Doesn't surprise me one bit that Alex Karp and his ontology cannot crack a simple 13F. A fundamental principle of any rigorous ontological or epistemological model whether philosophical or in data science is recognizing when your information is set is insufficient for valid conclusions. I don't know what the hell he's saying. The gut reaction is that he's thinking that Palanteer doesn't really understand what he disclosed on his 13F. And from my understanding, whether it's shorts, whether it's puts, it's a bearish bet on Paler. And so if he thinks that Karp is reacting in a wrong way because he can't read the 13F, I'm like, well, the 13F says you have a bearish position on Palantir, whether you're shorting it or whether you have puts or whatever financial instrument you're using, it's not bullish.

Yeah. So, absolutely, it would be better to have more data than than than less data. That's absolutely something that would be the case. Nevertheless, we do have some data. And I think if you look at uh what's happened in the last few months, you go back to the September uh September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the median participant in summary of economic projections was projecting a a three cuts this year. So a cut in September, a cut in October, and a cut in December.

What's happened since that happened, since we put those projections out? Well, we've gotten new inflation data which were better than expected which would make one think that it would be reasonable to be incrementally more dovish than at the September FOMC when again the median projection was for three cuts. And on top of that, labor market data have come out with continued with the labor market continuing in the trajectory it was on which is one of gradual softening. We do have some data on openings on new new openings that are available. We have some data on wages and we have some data on jobless claims and all of those are consistent with continued incremental softer weakening. I would think the reasonable thing to be is incrementally more dovish than we were in the September FOMC which again indicated three cuts for

We got another Burry tweet. We got another Burry tweet one minute ago. Okay, let's see what we got. Understating depreciation by extending useful life of assets artificially boost earnings. One of the more common frauds of the modern era. Wow.

Barry's basically saying all this GPU depreciation that companies are using to boost their earnings is fake. Massively ramping capex through purchase of Nvidia chip servers on a two to threeyear product cycle should not result in the extension of useful lives of compute equipment. Yet this is exactly what all the hyperscalers have done. Wow. Burry's straight up officially talking. This guy's not talked for two years. He is officially putting out statements in his own words that are obviously more bearish.

By my estimates, they will underdepreciate or understate depreciation by 176 billion in the next two years. By 2028, or Oracle will overstate earnings by 27%, Meta by 20.8%, etc. But it gets worse. More details coming November 25th. Stay tuned, guys. He's going for another big short.

He is going for another big short. Yeah, we got to screenshot it because he's going to delete this in like five seconds. Let me take the screenshot. Goodness gracious.

I don't think people realize how big of a deal it is that he's actually calling out tickers. Burry never mentions tickers ever. He just mentioned Meta, Oracle, and Nvidia. He doesn't do that. He tends to be very quiet when it comes to actually saying the name of any companies. the fact that he's putting out analysis either he's getting super desperate more details coming what this guy has a freaking album coming out November 25th big short 2.0 know, like what is this November 25th? He wants everyone to be on their toes waiting for like what the fact that he's putting out tickers and sending a warning to the market.

You got all the data center stocks going down right here. I mean, he's obviously trying to get attention and and to me, if you're trying to get attention, maybe it's because you're really underwater on the short or he has no short or no puts. He got out of the whole pounder in video thing and now he's just putting out content for the sake of putting out content and and he's not financially motivated by being bearish, which I mean, who knows? Maybe he just wants to cause chaos and be right even if he's not putting his money where his mouth is. But given Burry's history, usually he tends to put some money on a bearish bet if he's putting out all this content around it.

Does he only post when bearish? Yeah, pretty much. I mean, he does not he that's what he never like he's long Lululemon. He's never posted something bullish about the state of the consumer in the context of clothing, you know, he's not posting things about Molina healthcare, even though he's long Molina, you know, he he tends to come out when he's bearish, but he hasn't done that for years. So, and he's damn sure never mentioned tickers for the past three years. So, it is quite incredible that he's actually putting this out there.

He wants people to short it with him. That's why I 100% agree. I mean, you're talking about some random November 25th date to unveil some potentially master plan of analysis or research that he's putting out. He obviously wants people to be on his side of the story and jump in trade with him. If he's in a trade, the only one we know about is Invidian Pounder. Maybe there's another one. It's been, you know, two months since it was disclosed maybe or since he had to disclose it. So, you know, maybe he's even more short the broader market or something, but I'm not sure.

Why November 25th? That's a good question. I don't know. He's trying to ruin the holidays. He might legit be trying to ruin the holidays. Dell reports earnings November 25th, huh? Oh, may that's a good point. Maybe it has nothing to do with him putting out like research. Maybe it has to do with companies he wants people Dude, you know what this reminds me of? This reminds me of freaking um um Catch Me If You Can, which is a phenomenal movie. I know I don't know that much about movies or rather I should say I know that you guys don't think I know that much about movies. I'm you know my opinion a movie connoisseur but uh this is a phenomenal movie and I've watched this twice obviously DiCaprio I'm a fanboy but um you know like he was giving out hints throughout the movie he almost wanted to be caught. It's almost kind of like how Burry's playing it, right?

More details coming November 25th. If if there's something in Dell's earnings that he's projecting is going to show up in regards to capex and depreciation. Who? Hold on. Is Nvidia Nvidia Q3 earnings? No, Nvidia is before November 25th, right? Nvidia is November 19th. So, Dell is the major major company. November 25th, Dell, HP, Autodesk, Workday, and Zcaler. Those are the earnings.

So, there you go. I have seen Shaw Shank Redemption. It's also a phenomenal movie. Uh, I know you guys won't believe me, but I did watch that a long time ago. It's a great movie. You know what I tried to watch last night? I tried to watch uh the new Vince Gilligan show um uh Pluribbus or whatever. I signed up for Apple TV, did the three-month trial. I couldn't get through five minutes of it, bro. I could not get through f I was like, dude, and Vince Gilligan, Breaking Bad is the best show of all time in my opinion. And so, I wanted to give it a chance because it's Vince Gilligan's that, you know, it's the second big show. I tried. I really tried. I I couldn't do it. Five minutes. I was like, the hell is this, bro? I went I went to sleep. I was going to watch it before I went to sleep. I just turned it off. I was like, I can't watch this. I'll try again. I'll try again when I'm not as sleepy because it's Vince Gilligan. Like, I really respect Vince Gilligan. But I was like, bro, like, can we be a bit more exciting for the first couple minutes?

Like, anyway, that's the Burry tweet. Very weird, dude. The only reason I'm making a big deal out of this is because he does not state tickers like that. The fact that he's that explicit about it makes me think that he is getting much more serious about his short. Again, I think he's wrong. I'm willing to listen to the arguments. I just don't think you bet against the types of earnings growth we're seeing. His argument is that none of the earnings growth is real. That's fine. That's where you have a debate. But I don't know if that's the best side of the story to be on.

And again, you know, he said back in January 2023 to sell. Obviously, we had a massive bull market since then. So, I mean, ever since 2008, he hasn't really called a cycle or a or a uh a bearish or bullish bet as accurate. He did get China correct back when China was cheap in 2024. And that's that's fair. Does that mean he's going to get this whole AI bubble, capex bubble thing? I don't I don't think so. Unless there is some real cracks, but we got to get some company data to see those cracks manifest themselves. Otherwise, it's hard to just give him the benefit of the doubt, given the last thing he got right from a bearish perspective was 2008.