欢迎辞与本期主题

Welcome to Merryn Talks Money, the podcast in which people who know the markets explain the markets. I'm Merryn Somerset Webb. This week we are talking about activist investing (Activist Investing: 一种投资策略，通过成为公司的大股东并积极参与公司治理，以影响管理层决策，从而提升公司价值), why it's seeing a resurgence and what that means for the investment landscape and possibly for your portfolio.

欢迎收听《梅里恩谈钱》，在这个播客中，了解市场的人会解释市场。我是梅里恩·萨默塞特·韦伯。本周我们讨论的是激进投资（Activist Investing: 一种投资策略，通过成为公司的大股东并积极参与公司治理，以影响管理层决策，从而提升公司价值），探讨其为何卷土重来，以及这对投资格局和您的投资组合可能意味着什么。

I'm speaking with Joe Bowen, CEO (Chief Executive Officer: 首席执行官) and CIO (Chief Investment Officer: 首席投资官) at Asset Value Investors (AVI: 资产价值投资者，一家英国的激进投资者公司) and the manager of AVI Global Trust (AVI Global Trust: 资产价值投资者管理的一支全球信托基金) as well as AVI Japan Opportunity Trust (AVI Japan Opportunity Trust: 资产价值投资者管理的一支专注于日本市场的信托基金). AVI Asset Value Investors is a UK-based active investor open to private investors. That means the group targets quality companies trading at discounts, often family-controlled holding companies, and tries to unlock their value through active engagement.

我正在与资产价值投资者（AVI: 一家英国的激进投资者公司）的首席执行官（CEO: 首席执行官）兼首席投资官（CIO: 首席投资官）Joe Bowen 对话，他同时也是AVI全球信托（AVI Global Trust: 资产价值投资者管理的一支全球信托基金）和AVI日本机遇信托（AVI Japan Opportunity Trust: 资产价值投资者管理的一支专注于日本市场的信托基金）的基金经理。资产价值投资者（AVI）是一家总部位于英国的活跃投资者，面向私人投资者开放。这意味着该集团瞄准那些以折价交易的优质公司，通常是家族控制的控股公司，并通过积极参与来释放其价值。

So we talked to Joe about the strategy behind AVI Global Trust, how his strategy works, and what mistakes he's made along the way, as well as the opportunities he now sees abroad in both Japan and in Korea. Joe, welcome to Merryn Talks Money.

因此，我们与乔讨论了AVI全球信托背后的策略，他的策略如何运作，他一路走来犯了哪些错误，以及他现在在日本和韩国看到的海外机会。乔，欢迎来到《梅里恩谈钱》。

Joe: Thanks for having me. It's good to be here. All right.

乔：谢谢邀请。很高兴来到这里。好的。

Marin: I know you've got quite a lot of fans among our audience, but you may also have some listeners with us today who don't know much about you and what you do. So, I wonder if you could just set us up by telling us about how you invest and why.

梅里恩：我知道你在我们的听众中有很多粉丝，但今天可能也有一些听众不太了解你和你的工作。所以，我想请你先介绍一下你是如何投资以及为何投资的。

AVI的投资理念：市场效率低下与积极股东参与

Joe: The starting point for everything we do at AVI is the idea that stock markets aren't always efficient. We're all told that stock markets are efficient. I think that's only really true about certain parts of it, typically the largest liquid, most well-researched and covered names.

乔：我们在AVI所做一切的出发点是，股票市场并非总是有效的。我们都被告知股票市场是有效的，但我认为这只在某些部分是真实的，通常是那些最大、流动性最好、研究最充分和覆盖最广泛的股票。

Yeah, they're quite efficient, but they're always parts of the stock market that are neglected, overlooked, under-researched, and that gives rise to inefficiencies. And that's generally the parts of the stock market that we are interested.

是的，它们确实很有效率，但总有一些股票市场的部分被忽视、遗漏、研究不足，这导致了低效率。而这通常是我们感兴趣的股票市场部分。

And on top of that, we particularly like the idea about being able to buy into good quality businesses that are trading below the value of their assets or their businesses. The two are actually linked. The discount arises simply because the fact that price discovery isn't working. That philosophy or process permeates everything we do.

除此之外，我们特别喜欢能够买入那些以低于其资产或业务价值交易的优质企业。这两者实际上是相互关联的。折价的出现仅仅是因为价格发现机制没有发挥作用。这种理念或过程渗透到我们所做的一切中。

And then I think the third angle of our approach is it's great to buy something when it's cheap. It's great to buy good business that you think is going to go up in value, but hope is not a strategy. And the third element of our approach really is working as an engaged shareholder (Engaged Shareholder: 积极参与公司治理的股东) to try and address and remedy that mispricing, that undervaluation.

然后，我认为我们方法的第三个角度是，在价格便宜时买入是很好的。买入你认为会升值的优质企业是很好的，但希望并非策略。我们方法的第三个要素实际上是作为积极股东（Engaged Shareholder: 积极参与公司治理的股东）来努力解决和纠正这种错误定价和低估。

So in some cases it could be shareholder activism (Shareholder Activism: 股东激进主义，股东通过公开或私下行动影响公司决策以提升股东价值), in some cases it's a softer shareholder engagement (Shareholder Engagement: 股东参与，股东与公司管理层进行沟通和协商以影响公司决策) process. But it's always about trying to do something to unlock value.

因此，在某些情况下，这可能是股东激进主义（Shareholder Activism: 股东通过公开或私下行动影响公司决策以提升股东价值），在某些情况下，它是一种更温和的股东参与（Shareholder Engagement: 股东与公司管理层进行沟通和协商以影响公司决策）过程。但它总是关于努力做些什么来释放价值。

Marin: Okay, so here's the difference. If I talk to any fund manager I talk to is going to say roughly what you have said to me, it may be in a slightly different way. They're all going to say that they are finding value where other people are not. That anything they buy is going to be mispriced by the rest of the market.

梅里恩：好的，那么区别就在这里。如果我与任何基金经理交谈，他们都会大致说出你对我说的内容，可能方式略有不同。他们都会说，他们正在别人没有发现价值的地方发现价值。他们购买的任何东西都会被市场其他部分错误定价。

That's if you call yourself growth, you call yourself value, whatever you call yourself. When you are an active investor and you buy a share, you believe you have seen something that the rest of the market has not seen. But the difference here between what you are saying and other people say is that you are attempting yourself to create the catalyst to bring out the value.

无论你称自己为增长型、价值型，或者其他任何类型。当你是一名积极投资者并购买股票时，你相信你看到了市场其他部分没有看到的东西。但你所说的与其他人所说的区别在于，你正在尝试自己创造催化剂来释放价值。

Joe: There's another angle as well and that is that yeah of course every analyst, every fund manager has got a model and they're going to have a target price or target valuation. What's interesting about many of the companies that we invest in is that they own assets and businesses that could be liquidated today for a pound and they're trading at 60, 70.

乔：还有另一个角度，那就是，当然，每个分析师、每个基金经理都有一个模型，他们会有一个目标价格或目标估值。我们投资的许多公司有趣之处在于，它们拥有的资产和业务今天可以按一英镑的价格清算，但它们却以六七十便士的价格交易。

These aren't blue sky valuations. These are actual liquidation values. And I guess the most extreme example of that is what we see in Japan and have seen in Japan for many years. And that is many companies in Japan holding huge amounts of surplus net cash on their balance sheets.

这些不是虚高的估值。它们是实际的清算价值。我想最极端的例子就是我们在日本看到的，并且在日本多年来一直存在的现象。那就是日本许多公司在资产负债表上持有巨额的过剩净现金。

And in the most extreme cases, the value of that cash and sometimes other listed securities is well above the market cap of the company.

在最极端的情况下，这些现金以及有时其他上市证券的价值远远超过了公司的市值。

日本市场的价值机遇与公司治理变革

Marin: And that was an extraordinary thing. I mean, you'd started your Japan-only strategy. There are two trusts here just for those who don't know the AVI Global and then another AVI trust that specializes in Japan. You started that about seven years ago. And even before you had started that, I had been writing for years about exactly that kind of value.

梅里恩：那真是件非凡的事。你启动了你的日本专属策略。这里有两支信托基金，对于那些不了解AVI全球信托的人来说，还有一支专注于日本的AVI信托。你大约在七年前启动了它。甚至在你启动之前，我就已经写了好几年关于这类价值的文章了。

And there it was. There's cash. It's just sitting there. These companies, some of them with more cash on the balance sheet than their market capitalization. But nonetheless, year after year, the market simply ignored that. And then something changed.

它就在那里。有现金。它就静静地躺在那里。这些公司，有些资产负债表上的现金甚至超过了它们的市值。但尽管如此，年复一年，市场却对此置若罔闻。然后，情况发生了变化。

Joe: That's right. For many years, the mantra in Japan was we need to have cash for a rainy day. And in fact, when you spoke to companies in Japan, it became clear that they were told, employees were told that if a shareholder asks for the money back, you tell them it doesn't belong to them, it belongs to the company.

乔：没错。多年来，日本的口头禅是，我们需要为不时之需储备现金。事实上，当你和日本公司交谈时，很明显，他们被告知，员工被告知，如果股东要求返还资金，你要告诉他们这不属于他们，而是属于公司。

A very subtle but important difference. But all of it changed around 10 years ago with the introduction under the late Prime Minister Abe of the Corporate Governance Code (Corporate Governance Code: 公司治理准则，旨在提升公司透明度和股东权益) and the Stewardship Code (Stewardship Code: 尽责管理守则，旨在鼓励机构投资者积极参与被投资公司的治理), which really attempted to change the psychology of businesses of companies in Japan and promote the interests of shareholders, which for so long had been really knocked back.

一个非常微妙但重要的区别。但这一切在大约十年前发生了变化，当时已故首相安倍引入了公司治理准则（Corporate Governance Code: 旨在提升公司透明度和股东权益）和尽责管理守则（Stewardship Code: 旨在鼓励机构投资者积极参与被投资公司的治理），这真正试图改变日本企业的心理，并促进股东的利益，而股东的利益长期以来一直被压制。

And companies had been run primarily for employees, society, pensioners but not for shareholders, and that really has changed in the last decade. It's taken a long time, but we're seeing companies focused a lot more on their share price. They are more conscious of capital efficiency, not blindly accumulating cash and doing nothing with it, but buying back shares, investing in their business, returning it in other ways to shareholders.

公司主要是为员工、社会、养老金领取者而运营，而不是为股东，这在过去十年中确实发生了变化。这花费了很长时间，但我们看到公司更加关注其股价。他们更注重资本效率，而不是盲目积累现金却无所作为，而是回购股票，投资于他们的业务，以其他方式回报股东。

We see many companies in Japan, they're bothered today about their share price. They want to know what they can do to achieve a higher share price. And if a shareholder comes and has a constructive answer to that dilemma, then unlike many years ago, they want to hear. In the past, they didn't want to speak to us, now they do.

我们看到日本的许多公司现在都关心自己的股价。他们想知道能做些什么来提高股价。如果股东带着建设性的解决方案来解决这个困境，那么与多年前不同，他们现在愿意倾听。过去他们不愿意与我们交谈，现在他们愿意了。

Marin: And are you still finding lots of opportunities in Japan? I mean, it's been a good run, right? And your performance has been extremely good in Japan. So, are you looking around now and going, well, that was great, but maybe it's time to move on?

梅里恩：你还在日本发现很多机会吗？我的意思是，这段时间表现很好，对吧？你们在日本的表现非常出色。那么，你现在环顾四周，是不是觉得，嗯，那很棒，但也许是时候继续前进了？

Joe: Yeah, we are seeing many, many opportunities today. The opportunity set has evolved. Clearly the extreme valuations we identified seven, eight years ago have moderated to an extent, but what has changed is the catalyst.

乔：是的，我们今天看到了很多很多机会。机会集合已经演变。显然，我们七八年前发现的极端估值在一定程度上有所缓和，但变化的是催化剂。

So seven or eight years ago you had to work really hard to get companies to talk to you, to listen to you, to try and do some of the things that we were suggesting. Today they are much more willing and the door is much more open than it was seven or eight years ago.

所以七八年前，你必须非常努力才能让公司与你交谈，听取你的意见，并尝试做我们建议的一些事情。今天，他们更愿意，大门也比七八年前敞开得多。

So in that sense there's still discounted valuations and the catalyst is much more likely to arrive. And the other change that's happened over the last seven or eight years is the presence of private equity (Private Equity: 私募股权，一种投资方式，投资于非上市公司股权或以非公开方式交易的上市公司股权) in Japan.

因此，从这个意义上讲，仍存在折价估值，并且催化剂更有可能出现。过去七八年发生的另一个变化是私募股权（Private Equity: 一种投资方式，投资于非上市公司股权或以非公开方式交易的上市公司股权）在日本的出现。

So Japan has notoriously been a market in which hostile takeover activity hasn't worked, where companies are desperate to stay listed, to not be taken over by vultures, particularly foreign vulture private equity funds. But the presence of private equity has been growing over the last seven years, both the domestic sector and also the global sector.

所以日本一直是一个敌意收购活动不起作用的市场，公司拼命想保持上市，不被秃鹫，特别是外国秃鹫私募股权基金收购。但过去七年来，私募股权的存在一直在增长，包括国内和全球领域。

And whilst we've been making the lives of the listed companies a little bit more challenging by being an activist shareholder, on the other side of the table, private equity has been the nice guy. It's been playing golf, taking them to restaurants and trying to tell them that life as a private company could be good for them, could be good for our employees, could be good for society.

当我们作为激进股东，让上市公司日子变得更具挑战性时，在谈判桌的另一边，私募股权公司则扮演着“好人”的角色。他们打高尔夫，带公司高管去餐馆，并试图告诉他们，作为一家私营公司对他们、对员工、对社会都可能是有益的。

And so we're seeing a big pickup and the double effect I suppose of more activist shareholders, more willing management teams and the threat of change of corporate control is really driving leading to a big increase in change of corporate control market and that's really helping compress the discounts.

因此，我们看到一个显著的增长，我想，更多的激进股东、更乐意的管理团队以及公司控制权变更的威胁，这双重效应正在真正推动公司控制权变更市场的大幅增长，这确实有助于压缩折价。

Marin: I'd say when I was last in Japan about a year ago and I was talking to a lot of people about private equity and quite a lot of the private equity players were finding it to be a very different market to the one they were used to and much more difficult to operate in.

梅里恩：我想说，大约一年前我最后一次去日本时，我与很多人谈论了私募股权，很多私募股权参与者发现这是一个与他们习惯的市场非常不同的市场，操作起来要困难得多。

Joe: Much more difficult to operate in. Anecdotally, what I've seen is there's still a resistance to hostile takeover activity. But what's helped has been in a sense the evolution of activist shareholders on registers.

乔：操作起来困难得多。根据传闻，我所看到的是，仍然存在对敌意收购活动的抵制。但有所帮助的是，从某种意义上说，注册股东中的激进股东的演变。

So you now found when you look at our portfolio for example there's a handful of situations where 30 to 40% of the shares are held by two or three different activist shareholders and that's quite an interesting development from private equity perspective. It means that rather than approach a company not having any shares not having any support on the register, you could now approach a company with 30 to 40% support and you could say this is what we want to do and then it almost becomes a fait accompli. Not always, but it makes life very difficult for management if such a large proportion of their register want to see some kind of change of corporate control.

所以你现在发现，例如，当你查看我们的投资组合时，有少数情况是30%到40%的股份由两三个不同的激进股东持有，这从私募股权的角度来看是一个非常有趣的发展。这意味着，你现在可以以30%到40%的支持率去接触一家公司，而不是在没有股份、没有注册支持的情况下接触一家公司，然后你可以说这就是我们想做的，然后它几乎就成了既成事实。并非总是如此，但如果他们的注册股东中有如此大比例的人希望看到某种公司控制权变更，那将使管理层的生活变得非常困难。

Marin: Okay. Interesting. And what have you most recently bought in Japan?

梅里恩：好的，有意思。你最近在日本买了什么？

Joe: We've been buying Mitsubishi Logistics (Mitsubishi Logistics: 三菱物流，一家日本大型物流公司), which is a very large logistics company. Very, very interesting valuation in the sense that not only is a very profitable operating business. Not only does it own its warehouses, distribution centers on its balance sheet, but it also owns a large chunk of investment property assets as well.

乔：我们一直在购买三菱物流（Mitsubishi Logistics: 一家日本大型物流公司），这是一家非常大型的物流公司。它的估值非常非常有趣，因为它不仅是一家非常盈利的运营企业。它不仅在资产负债表上拥有自己的仓库、配送中心，还拥有一大块投资性房地产资产。

And the combined value of those real estate assets is about twice the current share price. So trading at a very substantial discount, private equity has been very active within the logistics space. Mitsubishi Logistics trades well below book value and there's a lot of pressure on companies in Japan to achieve at a minimum one times.

这些房地产资产的总价值大约是当前股价的两倍。因此，该股以非常大的折价交易，私募股权在物流领域一直非常活跃。三菱物流的交易价格远低于账面价值，日本公司面临着很大的压力，要求它们至少达到一倍的市净率。

One of its close peers has attracted interest from a value activist investor and has seen its shares re-rate in response to that to well north of one, one and a half times in fact. And so there's pressure building on management of that company to address their undervaluation. We are intensely engaging with the company. It's all private and constructive at this stage. And we think we know which direction we're traveling in.

其一家亲近的同业公司吸引了价值激进投资者的兴趣，其股价因此重新定价，实际上已远超一倍，达到了一点五倍。因此，该公司管理层面临着解决其估值过低的压力。我们正在与该公司进行深入接触。目前阶段，这一切都是私下和建设性的。我们认为我们知道前进的方向。

Marin: I know you're very bottom-up, but in Japan, do you worry at all about the political environment or indeed the fiscal environment?

梅里恩：我知道你非常注重自下而上的分析，但在日本，你是否担心政治环境或财政环境？

Joe: We think about it, but as you say, from our perspective, it's much more about individual companies, the idiosyncratic source of return that we can generate, which will be positive really regardless of what's going on with the political or fiscal situation.

乔：我们确实会考虑这些，但正如你所说，从我们的角度来看，更多地是关于个别公司，以及我们能够产生的特质性回报来源（Idiosyncratic Source of Return: 指由公司特定因素而非整体市场或行业因素驱动的投资回报），无论政治或财政状况如何，这些回报都将是积极的。

Of course, no company operates in a vacuum. They exist in Japan. They're selling into Japan in many cases, but the businesses that we tend to invest in have got good market positions. They're very profitable. They've got very strong balance sheets and they're trading extremely cheaply.

当然，没有公司能在真空中运作。它们存在于日本。在许多情况下，它们在日本销售，但我们倾向于投资的企业拥有良好的市场地位。它们非常盈利。它们拥有非常强大的资产负债表，而且交易价格极其便宜。

And notwithstanding those other risks and other factors, there is very substantial upside from a series of self-help measures that we encourage companies to take.

尽管存在其他风险和其他因素，但通过我们鼓励公司采取的一系列自救措施，仍有非常大的上涨空间。

全球投资组合：为何美国持仓较少？

Marin: Right. Should we go a bit more global? When we look at your global portfolio, one of the things that you tend to focus on is more in the way of closed-end funds (Closed-End Funds: 封闭式基金，一种投资工具，发行固定数量的股票，并在交易所交易). So in the UK investment trust (Investment Trust: 投资信托，英国的一种封闭式基金结构), holding companies, etc. When I look at the portfolio, which is quite small, but what is it in the global fund? About 40, 40 holdings. It's quite concentrated.

梅里恩：好的。我们是否可以更全球化一点？当我们看你的全球投资组合时，你倾向于关注更多的是封闭式基金（Closed-End Funds: 一种投资工具，发行固定数量的股票，并在交易所交易）。所以在英国，投资信托（Investment Trust: 英国的一种封闭式基金结构）、控股公司等等。当我看到这个投资组合时，虽然规模不大，但全球基金中有多少持仓呢？大约40个持仓。相当集中。

Joe: Yeah. Probably 20 core names. Really? 20 core names. 20, 25 core names.

乔：是的。大概有20个核心股票。真的吗？20个核心股票。20到25个核心股票。

Marin: All right. If you look at it geographically, you've got much less in the US than pretty much any global trust I look at. You've got more in Europe, more in Japan, more in the UK than most, and very little emerging markets. So, should we just look briefly at why it is that you hold so little in the US relative to the index and relative to other global funds?

梅里恩：好的。如果你从地理上看，你在美国市场的持仓远低于我所见的几乎所有全球信托基金。你在欧洲、日本、英国的持仓比大多数基金都多，而在新兴市场则非常少。那么，我们能否简要探讨一下，为什么你相对于指数和相对于其他全球基金，在美国的持仓如此之少？

I know relativity is not your thing at all, but nonetheless, I think it would be interesting for listeners to hear a little more about that.

我知道相对性根本不是你关注的重点，但尽管如此，我认为听众能多了解一点会很有趣。

Joe: Well, AVI Global is a benchmark-agnostic trust, and we take that claim seriously. So many others would say benchmark-agnostic, but when you look at them, they seem to have very similar allocations to the US than the benchmark.

乔：嗯，AVI全球信托是一个不以基准为导向的信托，我们认真对待这一主张。许多其他基金也会说不以基准为导向，但当你观察它们时，它们在美国的配置似乎与基准非常相似。

The other factor is that we are bottom-up and we can invest where we see the most compelling undervaluations and the most attractive upside. In recent years, that has really led us away from the US and to other places. When you think about it, the starting point I said was always that markets are inefficient.

另一个因素是，我们采用自下而上的方法，可以投资于我们认为估值最低、上涨空间最大的地方。近年来，这确实让我们避开了美国，转向了其他地方。当你思考这个问题时，我所说的起点始终是市场是低效的。

But when you think about the US market, it is the most popular, largest market in the world. It's the most well-researched market. And the kind of companies that we're looking for, good quality businesses on discounted valuations. So in the US buying a dollar of assets for 50, 60 cents, they're not that common.

但当你想到美国市场时，它是世界上最受欢迎、最大的市场。它是研究最充分的市场。而我们正在寻找的那种公司，是估值折价的优质企业。所以在美国，以50、60美分的价格购买一美元的资产，这种情况并不常见。

The price discovery mechanism, the sell-side research, the private equity arbitrage taking over, taking advantage of mispriced opportunities that has worked to a great extent whereas other markets really don't have that those factors working in their favor and so we're able to find more value.

价格发现机制、卖方研究、私募股权套利接管、利用错误定价的机会，这些都在很大程度上发挥了作用，而其他市场却没有这些有利因素，因此我们能够发现更多价值。

Marin: So does that make the US a very efficient market or a hideously overpriced market?

梅里恩：那么这是否意味着美国是一个非常有效的市场，还是一个估值高得离谱的市场？

Joe: It's probably got a little bit of both. But interestingly, we are seeing more opportunities in the US have been the last couple of years. It's not in the popular places. It's not amongst the high growth tech companies. It tends to be amongst smaller companies.

乔：可能两者兼而有之。但有趣的是，过去几年我们确实在美国看到了更多机会。这些机会不在热门领域，不在高增长科技公司中。它们往往出现在较小的公司中。

Companies that have the kind of characteristics that you said we favor investment companies owning a variety of different businesses trading at a discount to some of the parts. But the one thing that works in favor of the US market is that even in those situations, management is much more focused on the share price.

这些公司具有你所说的我们偏爱的特征：投资公司拥有一系列不同的业务，并且以低于其部分业务价值的总和进行交易。但对美国市场有利的一点是，即使在这些情况下，管理层也更关注股价。

So at the other extreme, Japan management haven't been focused on the share price. They don't care. They don't own shares. In the US, what you find is management are very savvy, financially savvy, and if they can see a discount, they will exploit it for their shareholders' benefit and hopefully for theirs as well.

因此，在另一个极端，日本的管理层一直不关注股价。他们不在乎。他们不持有股份。在美国，你会发现管理层非常精明，具有财务头脑，如果他们看到折价，他们会利用它为股东谋利，也希望能为自己谋利。

Marin: Can you give us an example of the kind of thing you've been finding in the US recently? You say you're finding more value there now.

梅里恩：你能举个例子，说明你最近在美国发现了哪些类型的机会吗？你说你现在在那里发现了更多价值。

美国投资案例：新闻集团 (News Corporation)

Joe: Our largest holding is a US-listed company which is News Corporation (News Corporation: 新闻集团，一家由默多克家族控制的全球媒体和出版公司) assets more global I would say but News Corp is interesting. It's controlled by the Rupert Murdoch and his family. It has two key assets within the holding company.

乔：我们最大的持仓是一家在美国上市的公司，那就是新闻集团（News Corporation: 一家由默多克家族控制的全球媒体和出版公司）。我认为其资产更具全球性，但新闻集团很有趣。它由鲁珀特·默多克及其家族控制。这家控股公司内部有两项关键资产。

The first is an Australian listed business called REA Group (REA Group: 澳大利亚领先的房地产在线分类信息公司) of which News Corp own around 60% odd percent. It's a very successful business. It's the equivalent of what we have in the UK, right move, and it's got a very dominant market share, very profitable and as I say a very successful investment for the group.

第一个是澳大利亚上市公司REA集团（REA Group: 澳大利亚领先的房地产在线分类信息公司），新闻集团持有其约60%的股份。这是一家非常成功的企业。它相当于我们在英国的Rightmove，拥有非常主导的市场份额，利润丰厚，正如我所说，是该集团一项非常成功的投资。

So we know what the value of that is. It trades on the stock market and so we can extract that from the market price of News Corp and look at what the implied value of the other assets are. And there is really only one key asset to think about here and that is the 100% ownership of the Dow Jones Group (Dow Jones Group: 道琼斯集团，新闻集团旗下公司，拥有《华尔街日报》等).

所以我们知道它的价值。它在股票市场上交易，因此我们可以从新闻集团的市场价格中提取这部分价值，并查看其他资产的隐含价值。这里实际上只有一个关键资产需要考虑，那就是对道琼斯集团（Dow Jones Group: 新闻集团旗下公司，拥有《华尔街日报》等）的100%所有权。

The Dow Jones Group owns the Wall Street Journal (Wall Street Journal: 《华尔街日报》，全球知名的商业新闻报纸). Obviously a well-known business, not only a successful newspaper, but also a very successful online business. But along with the Wall Street Journal, they also own a business called Opus (Opus: 一家数据提供商，主要服务于大宗商品市场), which is a data provider primarily for the commodities business, oil trading and commodities business.

道琼斯集团拥有**《华尔街日报》（Wall Street Journal: 全球知名的商业新闻报纸）。这显然是一家知名企业，不仅是一份成功的报纸，也是一家非常成功的在线业务。但除了《华尔街日报》，他们还拥有一家名为Opus**（Opus: 一家数据提供商，主要服务于大宗商品市场）的企业，它主要为大宗商品业务、石油交易和大宗商品业务提供数据。

Not too dissimilar to what Bloomberg does, say for equities and bonds, but more focused on the commodities business. Now the implied value when you strip out the market price of REA Group of the Dow Jones business is around four times earnings, four maybe five times earnings.

这与彭博社为股票和债券所做的工作没有太大不同，但更侧重于大宗商品业务。现在，当你剔除REA集团的市值后，道琼斯业务的隐含价值大约是市盈率的四倍，可能是五倍。

It's certainly worth a lot more than that. If you look at its closest listed peer, the closest listed peer to the Wall Street Journal is the New York Times which trades at somewhere around 15 to 17 times earnings. So a massive gap. Now clearly there are question marks about the family ownership there, the alignment of interest, the importance in their mind of minority shareholders.

它的价值肯定远不止这些。如果你看看它最接近的上市同行，《华尔街日报》最接近的上市同行是《纽约时报》，其交易价格大约是市盈率的15到17倍。所以差距巨大。现在，显然存在关于家族所有权、利益一致性以及少数股东在他们心目中重要性的疑问。

But I think we focus on what evidence there is out there in the public domain and what's really been interesting about News Corp is the recent comments coming out from the CEO who's not a member of the family talking about the undervaluation, talking about the discount, talking about the strategic review that's ongoing at the board to think about how to address that undervaluation, talking about no sacred cows, no holds barred strategic review.

但我认为我们关注公共领域中存在的证据，而新闻集团真正有趣的是，非家族成员的首席执行官最近发表的评论，他谈到了估值过低，谈到了折价，谈到了董事会正在进行的战略审查，以思考如何解决这种估值过低的问题，谈到了没有禁忌，没有限制的战略审查。

And probably the dispute that's been going on in the family has held some of that restructuring back. And hopefully now that that's behind, we can look forward to perhaps some restructuring. But notwithstanding that, and this is really key of what we're looking for across our portfolio, you've got two very good quality businesses within News Corp that are growing in value, that are growing in profitability year in year out.

而家族内部持续的争议可能阻碍了部分重组。希望现在争议已过，我们或许可以期待一些重组。但尽管如此，这也是我们在整个投资组合中寻找的关键：新闻集团内部有两家非常优质的企业，它们价值不断增长，盈利能力年复一年地提高。

So the NAV (Net Asset Value: 资产净值，指基金或公司资产减去负债后的价值) side of things is growing. The discount is wide. It's 45%. It's extremely wide. And we think the discount will be addressed. We can't determine when that is going to be addressed.

因此，资产净值（NAV: 资产净值，指基金或公司资产减去负债后的价值）方面正在增长。折价幅度很大。达到了45%。这是一个极大的折价。我们认为这个折价会得到解决。我们无法确定何时会解决。

But the key whilst we're waiting at least is to have that pound of value increasing rather than be stuck in a value trap where you own a pound of assets that's going south and it becomes a race against time to monetize that discount.

但至少在我们等待期间，关键在于让这一英镑的价值不断增长，而不是陷入价值陷阱，即你持有一英镑的资产却在不断贬值，从而变成一场与时间赛跑以实现折价变现的局面。

Marin: Yeah. But this is an example, this kind of investment. This is a company where you as a firm can't really create the catalyst yourself.

梅里恩：是的。但这种投资是一个例子。这是一家你们公司无法真正自行创造催化剂的公司。

Joe: Correct.

乔：没错。

Marin: You have to stand back and wait for it to happen.

梅里恩：你必须袖手旁观，等待它发生。

Joe: Yeah. And in those kind of situations, what we're looking for is the belief that something is going to happen. And it's more than just a belief that something is going to happen because it's the right thing to do. It's looking for those explicit indicators from management that they are doing a strategic review, that they're bothered about the discount, that actually something is going to happen.

乔：是的。在这种情况下，我们所寻找的是一种信念，即某些事情将会发生。而且这不仅仅是相信某些事情会发生，因为它做起来是正确的。它是在寻找管理层明确的指标，表明他们正在进行战略审查，他们对折价感到困扰，并且确实会有一些事情发生。

Because otherwise you're just left with hope and that's not good enough. And the exciting thing from about our opportunity set today is that there are so many companies trading on wide discounts where there is something happening. We don't know exactly the timing in all situations but we know that something is happening which is a big turnaround from I don't know 15 years ago when there was a lot of value on offer but it wasn't clear, it wasn't apparent what was going to happen to unlock that value.

因为否则你只剩下希望，那是不够的。而我们今天所面临的机会集令人兴奋之处在于，有如此多的公司以大幅折价交易，并且正在发生一些事情。我们不确定所有情况下的确切时机，但我们知道正在发生一些事情，这与15年前的情况相比是一个巨大的转变，当时有很多价值可供选择，但却不清楚，不明显将如何释放这些价值。

私募股权投资信托的机遇与挑战

Marin: Can we talk speaking of unlocking value about the private equity exposure in the portfolio? So that's an area where there's lots of private equity investment trust in the UK trading on slightly lower or higher lower discounts than they were previously, but nonetheless there's a lot about and you hold quite a lot in the portfolio that has private equity exposure.

梅里恩：说到释放价值，我们能谈谈投资组合中的私募股权风险敞口吗？这是一个领域，英国有许多私募股权投资信托基金，它们的折价交易比以前略低或略高，但无论如何，有很多这样的基金，而且你的投资组合中持有相当多的具有私募股权风险敞口的基金。

Joe: Yeah, we became more interested I would say in the private equity trusts probably two or three years ago at a time when interest rates started going up, you started seeing share prices come down and you started seeing discounts widen.

乔：是的，我想说，我们大约在两三年前开始对私募股权信托更感兴趣，当时利率开始上升，股价开始下跌，折价也开始扩大。

And what was interesting to us at a point in time was discounts were in some cases 40 to 50%. And there was obviously a debate about what the NAVs were, but we could see when looking at the secondaries market (Secondaries Market: 二级市场，指已发行证券的交易市场). So the secondary market provides good pricing evidence of what investors are buying in some cases some of those very same underlying funds that the private equity funds themselves own.

当时我们感兴趣的是，在某些情况下，折价达到了40%到50%。显然，关于资产净值（NAV: 资产净值，指基金或公司资产减去负债后的价值）的争论很多，但我们通过观察二级市场（Secondaries Market: 指已发行证券的交易市场）可以看到。因此，二级市场提供了很好的定价证据，表明投资者在某些情况下正在购买私募股权基金本身所持有的那些非常相同的底层基金。

And they were trading probably at 5 to 10 percent discounts to reported NAVs. So in our mind we could see quite a dislocation between how the market was pricing the private equity funds themselves and what was really going on by in some cases in quite sophisticated investors.

它们可能以比报告的资产净值低5%到10%的价格交易。因此，在我们看来，市场对私募股权基金本身的定价与在某些情况下，一些非常成熟的投资者实际操作之间存在相当大的脱节。

So that gave us some confidence that the NAVs weren't as unrealistic as perhaps some investors had feared. And then for us the question is we're not asset allocating. We're not just picking up stakes in listed private equity funds for the sake of it. We want to add some value for our shareholders.

因此，这让我们有信心，即资产净值并不像一些投资者可能担心的那样不切实际。然后对我们来说，问题在于我们不是在进行资产配置。我们不是为了持有而简单地购买上市私募股权基金的股份。我们希望为股东增加一些价值。

And typically the value we add to our shareholders whenever we invest in other investment trusts is some form of shareholder engagement, some form of shareholder activism. And that typically arises when we can be a large dominant shareholder, if not the largest than let's just say a top three shareholder.

通常，每当我们投资其他投资信托时，我们为股东增加的价值是某种形式的股东参与，某种形式的股东激进主义。这通常发生在我们能够成为一个大型主导股东时，如果不是最大的，那至少是前三大股东之一。

And so what we've seen and I think we've played our part in this is a sector that's now more aware of capital allocations. You're seeing more and more private equity funds doing share buybacks. We are pressing companies to take advantage of those discounts by rather than make new investments by their own portfolios on very steep discounts which is a positive risk-free return that's hard to beat elsewhere. And we're still seeing a number of attractive opportunities.

因此，我们所看到的是，并且我认为我们在这方面发挥了作用，这个行业现在更加关注资本配置。你看到越来越多的私募股权基金进行股票回购。我们正在敦促公司利用这些折价，而不是进行新的投资，而是以非常大的折价回购自己的投资组合，这是一种积极的无风险回报，在其他地方很难超越。我们仍然看到许多有吸引力的机会。

Marin: Okay. In private equity business as a whole, the sector seems to be in some degree of trouble. Exits increasingly difficult. IPO (Initial Public Offering: 首次公开募股，公司首次向公众出售股票) market still jammed up. So when you look at the sector as a whole, you might think, well, it's not really somewhere I want to be, but you're happy with it because you're buying on such big discounts.

梅里恩：好的。就整个私募股权行业而言，该领域似乎陷入了某种困境。退出越来越困难，首次公开募股（IPO: 公司首次向公众出售股票）市场仍然受阻。所以当你审视整个行业时，你可能会觉得，嗯，这不是我真正想进入的领域，但你对此感到满意，因为你正在以如此大的折价买入。

Joe: We're happy buying either trusts that own relative concentrated portfolios of businesses that we can analyze and comfortable with the valuations of those businesses. So something like Oakley Capital (Oakley Capital: 英国一家私募股权投资公司), for example, a fairly transparent portfolio, an excellent track record and attractive valuation as well.

乔：我们乐于购买那些拥有相对集中业务组合的信托基金，我们可以分析这些业务并对其估值感到满意。例如，像奥克利资本（Oakley Capital: 英国一家私募股权投资公司）这样的公司，其投资组合相当透明，业绩记录优秀，估值也很有吸引力。

Or some of the more diversified listed private equity funds where the discounts are very wide. And it's really up to us to engage with the board to do more to take advantage of those wide discounts by buying back shares, but be more shareholder-friendly, more focused on the share price and take action on that.

或者一些更多元化的上市私募股权基金，它们的折价非常大。而我们真正要做的是与董事会进行沟通，让他们采取更多措施，通过回购股票来利用这些大的折价，同时更注重股东利益，更关注股价并采取行动。

Marin: And how do the boards of those investment trusts enjoy that interaction with you?

梅里恩：那么，这些投资信托的董事会如何看待与你们的互动呢？

Joe: Obviously, it's mixed. I think for us though, the starting point is we never want to be an aggressive bully. It always works best to be polite, to be constructive, and that is helped by the fact that we typically like the portfolios we own.

乔：显然，情况好坏参半。不过，我认为对我们而言，出发点是我们绝不想成为一个咄咄逼人的霸凌者。礼貌、建设性地行事总是效果最好的，而我们通常喜欢我们所持有的投资组合这一事实也为此提供了帮助。

We typically like the underlying businesses. And it's not a case of a pound of assets that's going south very quickly, which would make us which would force us really to be aggressive. It's more we can be patient. We just want to see companies start to do more of the right thing.

我们通常喜欢这些基础业务。而且，这并非一英镑资产迅速贬值的情况，那会迫使我们采取激进策略。更多的是我们可以保持耐心。我们只是希望看到公司开始做更多正确的事情。

Marin: Okay.

梅里恩：好的。

Joe: Clearly, the investment trust space generally has suffered an exodus of shareholders. It's why we see so many discounts. There's in some cases there's a lack of buyers, you could say. But what's interesting is that more investors, more shareholders alongside us are becoming engaged as well.

乔：显然，投资信托领域普遍经历了股东流失。这就是为什么我们看到如此多的折价。在某些情况下，可以说缺乏买家。但有趣的是，越来越多的投资者、越来越多的股东与我们一道也开始参与进来。

They found their voice and they're recognizing that their remit to their own stakeholders is to be proactive, not just to be accepting of wide discounts. And one of the things we do is get together with other shareholders, write joint letters to boards. It just makes obviously life a little bit more challenging for boards, but it makes it more a more constructive dialogue.

他们发出了自己的声音，并且认识到他们对自己的利益相关者的职责是积极主动，而不仅仅是接受大的折价。我们做的一件事就是与其他股东联合起来，给董事会写联名信。这显然会给董事会带来一些挑战，但它促成了更具建设性的对话。

It was never this bad in the UK, but in Japan, for example, whenever you had a go or you criticized management, they'd always say, "You're the only shareholder who's not happy. All my other shareholders tell me they love me." Doing things together with other shareholders can be very powerful.

在英国情况从未如此糟糕，但在日本，例如，每当你尝试或批评管理层时，他们总是会说：“你是不满意的唯一股东。我所有其他股东都告诉我他们爱我。”与其他股东一起行动会非常强大。

英国投资信托：规模、零售投资者与未来

Marin: Let's stick with investment trust for a minute because a lot of our listeners are investment trust investors. What happens to the investment trust sector as a whole in the UK? Does it just shrink right back until we have a much smaller sector focused mainly on illiquid assets or is there another route for it?

梅里恩：我们先暂时谈谈投资信托，因为我们的许多听众都是投资信托投资者。英国的投资信托行业整体会发生什么？它会一直萎缩，直到我们只有一个主要专注于非流动性资产的小得多的行业，还是有其他出路？

Joe: No, I think I'm more positive than that. I think it plays a very important role and we're going through a shift clearly in order to be relevant funds have to be of a certain size and probably the days of the very small trusts trading on very wide discounts that they might find their days numbered.

乔：不，我认为我比那更乐观。我认为它扮演着非常重要的角色，我们正在经历一个明显的转变，为了保持相关性，基金必须达到一定规模，那些以非常大折价交易的非常小的信托基金的日子可能已经屈指可数了。

Marin: Can I just pick up on that? We've been saying this for ages, haven't we? That to be relevant in investment trust now has to be much bigger than it used to be. And we used to say, well, it has to be 400 million pounds to be relevant. Then that has to be close to a billion to be relevant, etc.

梅里恩：我能打断一下吗？我们已经说了很久了，不是吗？现在投资信托要想有影响力，就必须比以前大得多。我们以前常说，它必须达到4亿英镑才能有影响力。然后必须接近10亿英镑才能有影响力，等等。

But that assumes that the audience for investment trust is quite institutional. If you assume that there's a shift underway in this sector and in fact the market for investment trust is much more the ordinary man in the street, the retail investor, then it doesn't have to be a particular size.

但这假设投资信托的受众主要是机构投资者。如果你认为这个行业正在发生转变，而且投资信托的市场更多地面向普通大众，即散户投资者，那么它就不必达到特定的规模。

You can be a 100 million and still be very attractive to the retail investor. You only have to be big if you have large wealth managers wanting to be invested in you, which increasingly doesn't seem to be the case anyway.

你可以是1亿英镑的规模，但对散户投资者仍然非常有吸引力。只有当你有大型财富管理公司想投资你时，你才需要做大，而这种情况似乎也越来越少见了。

Marin: Yes, that's true. But the question then becomes, how does the sector as a whole attract that person on the street, that retail investor?

梅里恩：是的，没错。但问题是，整个行业如何吸引街上的普通人，即散户投资者呢？

Joe: Sorry, TikTok.

乔：抱歉，TikTok (TikTok: 抖音国际版，一款短视频社交应用)。

Marin: Yeah. Exactly. Exactly. The younger generation of investor today, one has to reach them in different ways to the ways of even 10 years ago, five, even five years ago. They are in many ways confused about investment trusts because they're more comfortable with the open-ended world where something is worth a pound and you buy it for a pound and then you sell it for a pound.

梅里恩：是的。没错。没错。今天的年轻一代投资者，必须以不同于十年前，甚至五年前的方式去接触他们。他们在很多方面对投资信托感到困惑，因为他们更习惯于开放式基金的世界，在那里，某样东西值一英镑，你以一英镑买入，再以一英镑卖出。

This whole idea that it's worth a pound and I can buy it for 90p, but when I want to sell it, it's 80p, that's just weird. Fun though. It is great fun and but the problem is that the investors who like it and find it fun and the one who the ones who don't care whether something is 50 million or 500 million, they're getting old and then they're taking their money out of the sector or it's disappearing in other ways.

而这种东西值一英镑，我能以90便士买到，但我想卖的时候却只值80便士的观念，简直太奇怪了。不过也很有趣。确实很有趣，但问题是，那些喜欢它并觉得有趣，以及那些不在乎是5000万还是5亿的投资者，他们正在变老，然后他们将资金撤出这个行业，或者资金以其他方式消失。

So you do have to attract the retail investor. The retail investor is key and the sector as a whole has to do more to appeal to those retail investors. The wealth managers. Yeah, the problem is being relevant to the wealth managers, but even there we're seeing some shifts.

所以你确实需要吸引散户投资者。散户投资者是关键，整个行业必须做更多来吸引这些散户投资者。财富经理。是的，问题在于如何与财富经理保持相关性，但即便在那里我们也看到了一些转变。

So, the consolidation in the wealth management sector has meant that most trusts aren't relevant. If you're running 50 billion or 100 billion, even a billion pound trust is not going to solve your problem of how to allocate to global equities say.

因此，财富管理行业的整合意味着大多数信托基金都不再具有相关性。如果你管理着500亿或1000亿的资产，即使是10亿英镑的信托基金也无法解决你如何在全球股票中进行配置的问题。

But the whole centralization that's going on there and again the whole focus on open-ended funds within those wealth managers has meant that many individual wealth managers are leaving. They're going to more boutique type firms. Exactly. To take advantage of the kind of situations that you say.

但那里的整个中心化以及那些财富经理对开放式基金的关注，意味着许多个人财富经理正在离开。他们转向了更精品化的公司。没错。正是为了利用你所说的那种情况。

Marin: That's some good news. Thank you for that. Let's move on to another bit of good news, which is your shift towards Korea. I know you've recently been on a trip and I'm wondering if you're looking at Korea now and seeing the same kind of opportunities that you might have seen in Japan a few years back.

梅里恩：这是个好消息。谢谢你。我们来谈谈另一个好消息，那就是你们向韩国的转变。我知道你最近去旅行了，我想知道你现在看韩国，是否看到了几年前在日本可能看到的那种机会。

韩国市场：新的机遇与政府改革

Joe: Yeah, we're very excited about Korea. It's a market we've been looking at for a few years. It's looked very cheap for a very long time, but like Japan 10 years ago, it lacked a catalyst. Nothing ever changed except that prices got cheaper.

乔：是的，我们对韩国感到非常兴奋。这是一个我们关注了几年的市场。它长期以来看起来非常便宜，但就像十年前的日本一样，它缺乏一个催化剂。除了价格变得更便宜之外，什么都没有改变。

And we've now actually put around 8% of the global trust into Korean names. We own seven or eight different businesses there. And the reason why we've done that is because the new government in Korea has brought into place a number of laws and regulations and intends to do more in order to promote stock market ownership in order to limit the power of controlling shareholders which has been a big negative of the market and has weighed on share prices.

我们现在实际上已将全球信托基金约8%的资金投入到韩国股票中。我们在那里拥有七八家不同的企业。我们这样做的原因是因为韩国新政府已经出台了一系列法律法规，并打算做更多事情，以促进股市所有权，限制控股股东的权力，这曾是市场的一大负面因素，并对股价造成了压力。

And to address undervaluation of companies on the stock market as well. Interestingly, the new president came in on a platform of KOSPI (KOSPI: 韩国综合股价指数，韩国的股票市场指数) 5000, aiming to get the KOSPI to double from when the point when he came into power within five years, which is remarkable.

同时也要解决股市公司估值过低的问题。有趣的是，新总统上任时的平台是KOSPI（KOSPI: 韩国综合股价指数，韩国的股票市场指数）5000点，目标是在他上任五年内让KOSPI指数翻倍，这非常引人注目。

Marin: Yeah.

梅里恩：是的。

Joe: And they're pursuing a carrot and stick approach to regulations. So, there'll be some things like tax incentives to pay out dividends. That's a carrot. The stick would be forcing companies to cancel treasury shares (Treasury Shares: 公司回购但尚未注销的自身股份) as opposed to letting them blindly accumulate.

乔：他们正在采取胡萝卜加大棒的监管方式。因此，会有一些鼓励派发股息的税收优惠，这是胡萝卜。大棒则是强制公司注销库存股（Treasury Shares: 公司回购但尚未注销的自身股份），而不是让它们盲目积累。

Marin: Okay. Will there be a dedicated Korean trust from you given that that seems to be the signal?

梅里恩：好的。鉴于这似乎是个信号，你们会推出一个专门针对韩国的信托基金吗？

Joe: No plans as yet, but you're not the first person to ask about that.

乔：目前还没有计划，但你不是第一个问这个问题的人。

Marin: God, you can't say that. It makes me feel small when you say I'm not the first person to ask the question.

梅里恩：天哪，你不能这么说。你说我不是第一个问这个问题的人，这让我感觉自己很渺小。

Joe: Well, we haven't spoken for a while, so otherwise I would have told you.

乔：嗯，我们有一段时间没聊了，不然我早就告诉你了。

Marin: Okay, fair enough. Tell us about some of the specific companies that you've been picking up in Korea.

梅里恩：好的，公平地说。给我们讲讲你在韩国挑选的一些具体公司吧。

韩国投资案例：爱茉莉太平洋 (Amore Pacific)

Joe: Yeah, well, we own one company called Amore Pacific (Amore Pacific: 爱茉莉太平洋，韩国一家大型化妆品公司), which is a holding company controlled by a family and its main asset. So there's Amore Pacific Holdings and there's Amore Pacific Corporation which is the main asset, which is a lead in cosmetics business in Korea, and Korean cosmetics and skincare generally I'm told is extremely popular.

乔：是的，我们拥有一家名为爱茉莉太平洋（Amore Pacific: 韩国一家大型化妆品公司）的公司，它是一家由家族控制的控股公司，其主要资产。所以有爱茉莉太平洋控股公司和爱茉莉太平洋公司，后者是主要资产，是韩国领先的化妆品业务，据说韩国的化妆品和护肤品普遍非常受欢迎。

Marin: Oh, it is Joe. It is extremely popular. It is extremely popular. A lot of our listeners I know they all have brilliance. Again they'll be using Korean products.

梅里恩：哦，是的，乔。它非常受欢迎。非常受欢迎。我知道我们的许多听众都很聪明。他们又会使用韩国产品了。

Joe: They will. So again the operating business is listed. So the holding company trades at about a 40% discount to the value of its operating business which it controls and this is typical in Korea. There's a lot of family controlled holding businesses.

乔：会的。所以，运营业务再次上市。因此，控股公司以对其控制的运营业务价值约40%的折价交易，这在韩国很常见。韩国有很多家族控制的控股企业。

Obviously the large chaebols (Chaebols: 韩国的家族财阀企业集团，如三星、LG、SK) are well-known, this is perhaps a less well-known company, but the idea of family ownership and the issue in Korea is that in many cases families see these businesses even though they're listed as their own personal fiefdoms and they don't care about minority shareholders and a lot of the regulation that's coming in is designed to address that.

显然，大型财阀（Chaebols: 韩国的家族财阀企业集团，如三星、LG、SK）众所周知，这或许是一家不太知名的公司，但在韩国，家族所有权的问题在于，在许多情况下，家族即使这些企业已经上市，也将其视为自己的私人领地，他们不关心少数股东，而许多即将出台的法规正是为了解决这个问题。

So encouraging something like Amore Pacific to pay more dividends, to reduce cash on the balance sheet, to cancel treasury shares, and just to promote the interest of minority shareholders. There's a law that's being passed in Korea recently that restricts the votes of any shareholder to 3% when it comes to voting for independent independent directors and independent auditors on the board.

因此，鼓励像爱茉莉太平洋这样的公司支付更多股息，减少资产负债表上的现金，取消库存股，并仅仅是为了促进少数股东的利益。韩国最近通过了一项法律，规定任何股东在投票选举董事会的独立董事和独立审计师时，其投票权不得超过3%。

So that is a direct response to the perception that large family controlled companies are only run for the families and not minority shareholders. So it doesn't address everything but it's a very clear signal and clear step in the right direction.

因此，这是对大型家族控制公司只为家族而非少数股东运营这一看法的直接回应。所以它不能解决所有问题，但它是一个非常明确的信号，也是朝着正确方向迈出的明确一步。

Marin: And what about your activist tendencies? How do you engage with Korean companies?

梅里恩：那你的激进主义倾向呢？你如何与韩国公司打交道？

Joe: Well, the activism element of it is key as well utilizing the support of the new laws and new regulations that are coming into place. It empowers those conversations and makes them direct and much more realistic.

乔：嗯，激进主义的元素也很关键，它利用了即将出台的新法律和新法规的支持。这使得这些对话更有力量，更直接，也更现实。

The reason we see a lot of parallels to Japan is that change takes time. Companies don't change overnight. Families don't change their attitudes immediately. There are some things that they will have to change if the law tells them to, but other things they'll have to be persuaded that it's the right thing to do.

我们看到许多与日本相似之处的原因是，改变需要时间。公司不会一夜之间改变。家族也不会立即改变他们的态度。有些事情，如果法律要求他们改变，他们就必须改变，但其他事情，他们必须被说服这是正确的做法。

So dialogue with these companies is very much on the agenda. We are very early days in that respect but we've met a number of different companies and the dialogue starts.

因此，与这些公司进行对话是议程上的重要事项。在这方面我们还处于非常早期的阶段，但我们已经会见了多家不同的公司，对话已经开始。

英国市场：价值何在？

Marin: Good. All right. Let's talk about an economy and where the regulation is going or normally goes only in the other direction, the UK, where you do have again a slightly higher exposure than most global funds. You're what 10, 11% at the moment. Where's the value here?

梅里恩：好的。我们来谈谈英国经济，以及那里的监管走向，或者通常只朝另一个方向发展。在英国，你们的风险敞口再次略高于大多数全球基金。目前你们的持仓是多少，10%、11%？那里的价值在哪里？

Joe: Well again for it's very much a bottom-up case for us. We've had some investments in the property listed property sector, property fund sector where we've seen and continue to see some consolidation and pressure on companies to either merge, take over others, or liquidate assets and return cash to shareholders.

乔：嗯，对我们来说，这仍然是一个非常自下而上的案例。我们曾在上市房地产领域和房地产基金领域进行过一些投资，在那里我们看到并继续看到一些整合以及公司面临的压力，要么合并，要么收购其他公司，要么清算资产并将现金返还给股东。

We have a stake in a family-backed UK business, the retailer Frasers (Frasers: 英国零售集团，拥有多家知名零售品牌), which has obviously a well-known retail operation but also substantial asset backing in the form of a growing real estate portfolio and stakes in other businesses. And we have a stake in Entain (Entain: 英国一家在线博彩公司), the online gambling company which is listed in the UK.

我们持有英国一家家族支持的企业——零售商弗雷泽斯（Frasers: 英国零售集团，拥有多家知名零售品牌）的股份，该公司显然拥有知名的零售业务，但也拥有以不断增长的房地产投资组合和其他业务股权形式的实质性资产支持。我们还持有在英国上市的在线博彩公司恩泰（Entain: 英国一家在线博彩公司）的股份。

Marin: And do you have concerns? I know I asked you this about Japan but I do have to ask you about the UK as well. Political, the fiscal environment, the inflation, all these things don't seem to create a great environment for corporate improvement. Do you worry about that? Where are your concerns?

梅里恩：你有什么担忧吗？我知道我问过你日本的情况，但我同样也要问问你英国。政治、财政环境、通货膨胀，所有这些似乎都没有为企业改善创造一个良好的环境。你担心这些吗？你的担忧在哪里？

Joe: Yeah, I live in the UK, so I'm desperately worried about it. And yeah, it's a big worry. What's interesting about the UK market though is that despite the big picture concerns and in some cases quite negative headwinds, there is still a very active market for corporate control.

乔：是的，我住在英国，所以我非常担心。是的，这是一个很大的担忧。但英国市场有趣的地方在于，尽管存在宏观层面的担忧，在某些情况下也面临相当不利的逆风，但公司控制权市场仍然非常活跃。

You're seeing private equity getting quite involved trying to take advantage of situations and that that's quite positive. That's what we haven't seen in other parts of the world necessarily and that gives one confidence that if you can buy good quality assets on a discount then maybe something will happen to address that. So that's the one positive I would say.

你看到私募股权公司积极参与，试图利用这些情况，这相当积极。这并不是我们在世界其他地方必然看到的，这让人有信心，如果你能以折价购买优质资产，那么可能会发生一些事情来解决这个问题。所以，这是我能说的一个积极因素。

投资组合的防御性与未来担忧

Marin: Okay. Yeah. I'm afraid that's quite a vague positive in the round in the round. So we've talked a lot about the positive feelings you have, things that might work, why it's all working. You've had wonderful performance. When you look at your portfolio in the round, what is it that you're nervous about? What worries you?

梅里恩：好的。是的。我恐怕这在总体上是一个相当模糊的积极因素。我们已经谈了很多关于你的积极感受，可能奏效的事情，以及为什么一切都奏效。你取得了出色的表现。当你全面审视你的投资组合时，你最担心什么？什么让你担忧？

If there were, for example, if it were to transpire that there is, for example, a bubble in AI in the US and perhaps more globally and that were to collapse, for example, what would happen to your portfolio? How defensive is this portfolio? It's not jammed with gold, but how defensive is it for an investor at the moment who is worried, as I think all our listeners are right now, very worried about all the things that they see around them.

例如，如果事实证明美国乃至全球存在人工智能泡沫，并且这个泡沫破裂了，你的投资组合会发生什么？这个投资组合的防御性如何？它没有塞满黄金，但对于目前担心的投资者来说，它的防御性如何？我相信我们所有的听众现在都非常担心他们周围看到的一切。

They're worried about geopolitics. They're worried about their US exposure. They're worried about AI overexposure. They're worried about valuations. There's a long list out there.

他们担心地缘政治。他们担心在美国的风险敞口。他们担心人工智能的过度风险敞口。他们担心估值。担忧清单很长。

Joe: Yeah, it's a good question. And I think the point is that we are an equity portfolio and we are fully invested in equities. We would argue that our equities are much cheaper than certain parts of the market. But I think it would be naive to assume that the very expensive tech companies, for example, would correct and our portfolio would be unaffected by that.

乔：是的，这是一个很好的问题。我认为关键在于我们是一个股票投资组合，并且我们完全投资于股票。我们会辩称，我们的股票比市场某些部分便宜得多。但我认为，如果假设那些非常昂贵的科技公司（例如）会进行调整，而我们的投资组合不会受到影响，那将是天真的。

So clearly there's an element of beta market exposure and we would probably suffer some declines in that eventuality as well. Whether they'd be greater or not or less is really hard to say. The things that give me some confidence are the fact that when you look at our portfolio and we measure the discount on each of our companies and so we have a picture of what the weighted average discount on our portfolio is now compared to what it is over time and where it's at at the moment is around 37, 38%.

因此，显然存在一定的贝塔市场风险敞口，在这种情况下，我们也可能会遭受一些下跌。至于跌幅会更大还是更小，真的很难说。让我有信心的因素是，当你查看我们的投资组合时，我们衡量每家公司的折价，因此我们对当前投资组合的加权平均折价与历史上的情况有一个清晰的认识，目前大约在37%到38%。

But to put that into some historical context, it's rarely pierced that 40% level and it's been as narrow as 10% and for a few weeks during the COVID sell-off it for a few days rather it touched 45, but if you look back at the financial crisis and the euro crisis it rarely went below beyond the 40% level and what that says is that discounts are already pretty wide and coupled with underlying valuations that I think are reasonable and not stretched at all.

但从历史背景来看，它很少突破40%的水平，曾窄至10%，在新冠疫情抛售的几周（确切地说是几天）内曾触及45%，但如果你回顾金融危机和欧元危机，它很少突破40%的水平。这表明折价已经相当大，再加上我认为合理且完全不高的基础估值。

What I think could happen is you might see in the eventuality of a big market correction, yes, discounts could widen temporarily and our share prices could fall. But they're more likely to bounce back pretty quickly because they're already at extreme undervaluations.

我认为可能发生的情况是，如果市场出现大幅回调，是的，折价可能会暂时扩大，我们的股价也可能下跌。但它们更有可能很快反弹，因为它们已经处于极度低估的状态。

And the reason why it never really goes beyond 40% is at those kind of levels, you start seeing quite attractive entry points and people start taking advantage of that. So I think if our portfolio was trading on a 10% weighted average discount, I'd be much more worried.

而它从未真正跌破40%的原因是，在那种水平上，你会开始看到非常有吸引力的入场点，人们会开始利用这一点。所以我认为，如果我们的投资组合以10%的加权平均折价交易，我会更加担心。

Marin: Good. Very reassuring. One thing that a lot of our listeners do hold a lot of and it's not in this portfolio though is gold. I know and not necessarily your remit. But how do you feel about the gold sector at the moment? It's been a wonderful run. Hopefully all our listeners are doing extremely well out of that which is a bad thing by the way.

梅里恩：好的。非常令人安心。我们的许多听众持有大量黄金，但这不在这个投资组合中。我知道这不一定是你的职责范围。但你目前对黄金行业有何看法？它一直表现出色。希望我们所有的听众都从中获益匪浅，顺便说一句，这不是好事。

You don't want gold to go up. It tells you terrible things. But nonetheless, should they worry about that now? It's gone too far. Should they buy more mining companies? Maybe they should swap into silver. I don't know. What do you think?

你不想让黄金上涨。它告诉你可怕的事情。但尽管如此，他们现在应该担心吗？它涨得太高了。他们应该购买更多的矿业公司吗？也许他们应该换成白银。我不知道。你觉得呢？

Joe: You know more about it than I do. It looks like gold mining companies are cheap.

乔：你比我更了解它。看起来黄金矿业公司很便宜。

Marin: Would you buy them though?

梅里恩：但你会买它们吗？

Joe: I wouldn't buy them for AVI Global though.

乔：不过我不会为AVI全球信托买它们。

Marin: Would you buy some Bitcoin (Bitcoin: 比特币，一种去中心化的加密数字货币) for AVI Global?

梅里恩：你会为AVI全球信托买一些比特币（Bitcoin: 一种去中心化的加密数字货币）吗？

Joe: Oh, that's definitely not. But it's a sore point in my household.

乔：哦，那肯定不会。但这在我家里是个痛点。

Marin: Why?

梅里恩：为什么？

Joe: Oh, because I've been long warning everybody in my family not to touch it and it's going to crash. And a couple of members did buy a little bit of Bitcoin some years ago and they're laughing. Well, they're not cause they didn't buy enough cause they didn't. They didn't buy enough.

乔：哦，因为我一直警告家里所有人不要碰它，它会崩溃的。几年前，有几个家人确实买了一点比特币，他们现在都在笑。嗯，他们没有，因为他们买得不够多。他们买得不够多。

Marin: Exactly. I mean, I'm always smug on this podcast because I have some Bitcoin and John doesn't have any Bitcoin. But what I very rarely admit is just how little Bitcoin I have. I can I'm smug about it, but it's tiny. But at least it's something. It's something. Whatever happen whatever happens next. Joe, is there anything we've missed? Anything that you must tell us that I have not asked you? Please show up my inadequacies as an interviewer by pointing out you want to know.

梅里恩：没错。我的意思是，我总是在这个播客中自鸣得意，因为我有一些比特币，而约翰没有任何比特币。但我很少承认的是我拥有的比特币是多么少。我可以为此沾沾自喜，但它确实很少。但至少它聊胜于无。聊胜于无。无论接下来发生什么。乔，我们有没有遗漏什么？有什么你必须告诉我们而我没有问到的吗？请指出你希望了解的内容，以揭示我作为采访者的不足。

Joe: Really good. Really good.

乔：非常好。非常好。

Marin: Joe, thank you so much for being with us today. Hugely appreciate it. That was fascinating.

梅里恩：乔，非常感谢你今天和我们在一起。非常感谢。那真是太棒了。

Joe: Thanks a lot. Keep well.

乔：多谢。保重。

Marin: Thanks for listening to this week's Merryn Talks Money. If you like our show, rate, review, and subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts. And keep sending your questions and comments to merryn.money@bloomberg.net. We read them and we are genuinely interested in them. You can also follow me and John on Twitter or X. I'm MerrynSW and John is John Stepek. This episode was hosted by me, Merryn Somerset Webb. It was produced by Summer Sardi and Moses Andam. Sound designed by Blake Maples and Aaron Caspers. Special thanks to Joe Boundfront.

梅里恩：感谢收听本周的《梅里恩谈钱》。如果你喜欢我们的节目，请在任何你收听播客的平台给我们评分、评论和订阅。请继续将你的问题和评论发送到merryn.money@bloomberg.net。我们都会阅读，并且真心对它们感兴趣。你也可以在Twitter或X上关注我和约翰。我是MerrynSW，约翰是John Stepek。本期节目由我，梅里恩·萨默塞特·韦伯主持。由Summer Sardi和Moses Andam制作。Blake Maples和Aaron Caspers进行音效设计。特别感谢Joe Boundfront。