美军弹药告急与精密制造瓶颈
特蕾西·芒福德: 这里是《纽约时报》头条新闻,我是特蕾西·芒福德。今天是9月28日星期一,以下是今天的核心报道。
据高级官员透露,特朗普总统针对伊朗的军事行动已导致美军武器库存消耗至令人担忧的水平。补充防空导弹及其他关键武器装备的周期十分漫长。国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)最近发布的一份报告指出,重新建立储备“至少需要5年时间”。鉴于这些严峻警告,《纽约时报》一直在深入调查导致重建美国武器库如此困难的深层因素。其中一个关键因素,竟然是一小块金属部件——老实说,它看起来就像是随便扔在杂物抽屉里的普通五金件。
英文原文
Tracy Mumford: From the New York Times, it's the headlines. I'm Tracy Mumford. Today's Monday, September 28th. Here's what we're covering. President Trump's war against Iran has depleted US weapon stockpiles to troubling levels, according to senior officials, and the timeline for stocking back up on air defense missiles and other critical weaponry is long. A recent report from the Congressional Budget Office said it could take quote "at least 5 years." With those warnings in mind, the Times has been looking at some of the factors that make rebuilding the US arsenal so difficult. One of them is a little piece of metal that honestly wouldn't look that out of place in a junk drawer.
法拉·斯托克曼: 滚珠丝杠(Ball screws)是高度精密的工程部件。它们外表看起来可能并不起眼,但其精密度却令人惊叹。如果用于导弹,这些螺丝一颗就很容易价值上千美元。这完全颠覆了我过去对‘螺丝’这一概念的全部认知。
英文原文
Farah Stockman: Ball screws are highly engineered components. They might not look that special, but they are incredibly precise. If it goes in a missile, they can easily be thousand dollar screws. And so it just changed my whole concept of what a screw is.
特蕾西·芒福德: 法拉·斯托克曼是《纽约时报》负责制造业报道的记者。她指出,精密滚珠丝杠内部包含微小的金属滚珠以减小摩擦力,它们不仅是导弹不可或缺的核心组件,在飞机及其他各类现代高科技装备中也同样不可或缺。而且,这在工厂制造端对细节的控制要求极高。例如,导弹所使用的滚珠丝杠,其公差规格要求极其苛刻,误差范围必须控制在比人类头发丝宽度还要细大约100倍的微观尺度内。
法拉表示,全美目前仅有极少数几家公司具备制造美国军方所需精密滚珠丝杠的工业能力。
英文原文
Tracy Mumford: Farah Stockman covers manufacturing for the Times. She says precision ball screws, which contain tiny metal balls to reduce friction, are essential, not just in missiles, but also planes and other modern technology. And they require incredible attention to detail at the factory level. The ones used in missiles, for example, must meet specs measured in units roughly 100 times smaller than the width of a human hair. And Farah says only a handful of companies are capable of making the ball screws the US military needs.
法拉·斯托克曼: 我特地前往了美国滚珠丝杠制造业的核心枢纽——密歇根州的萨吉诺(Saginaw, Michigan)。早在20世纪30年代,通用汽车(General Motors)就在那里设立了一个部门,专门生产用于汽车方向盘转向系统的滚珠丝杠。然而,现在那里的部分厂家仍然在依靠二战时期的老旧机械设备进行加工生产。近年来,当地许多小型工厂纷纷陷入破产境地,或者被规模更大的跨国集团兼并收购。
而这一切恰恰发生在需求急剧井喷的历史关头:如今我们突然间在人形机器人、潜艇以及各类导弹制造中都需要大量的滚珠丝杠。你常常会在美国制造业体系中撞见这类致命瓶颈——往往是一个大多数人听都没听过的零部件,却突然之间变成了卡脖子的关键死穴,彻底阻碍了我们生产急需装备的能力。
英文原文
Farah Stockman: I traveled to like the epicenter of US ball screw manufacturing, which is Saginaw, Michigan. It's where General Motors had a division that made ball screws for steering wheels in the 1930s. And some of these guys still use World War II era machines to make them. And a lot of them have gone bankrupt in recent years or they've been bought up by bigger companies. And that's happening exactly at the same time that demand is increasing because all of a sudden we need them for humanoid robots. We need them for submarines. We need them for missiles. You come across these bottlenecks in American manufacturing. There might be a component that no one's even heard of and all of a sudden it's the thing that's preventing us from making what we really need to make.
特蕾西·芒福德: 法拉强调,精密滚珠丝杠远非武器制造中唯一难以采购的零部件。然而,目前这种滚珠丝杠漫长的交付周期(lead time),可能会导致一枚导弹的生产制造周期额外增加数月甚至数年。一家为美国军方追踪供应链动态的物流企业高管直言不讳地将其形容为“我们国家防务体系中一个迫在眉睫的单点故障(single point failure)”。
英文原文
Tracy Mumford: Farah says precision ball screws are far from the only weapons component that can be hard to source. But the long lead time for these ball screws right now can add months or even years to how long it takes to make a missile. One executive of a logistics company that tracks supply chains for the US military called it quote "an immediate single point failure for our national defense."
美伊冲突僵局与英国基地未遂恐袭
唐纳德·特朗普: 我拒绝他们的提案。他们确实提出了一个方案,但我已经把它否决了。
英文原文
Donald Trump: I reject their proposal. They they made a proposal, but I've rejected it.
特蕾西·芒福德: 与此同时,刚刚过去的这个周末,特朗普总统向记者明确表示,他已拒绝了伊朗方面为结束战争所提出的和谈方案。伊朗的提案原本规划了一个为期7天的路线图,旨在重新开放霍尔木兹海峡,并重启关于伊朗核计划的谈判进程。
英文原文
Tracy Mumford: Meanwhile, over the weekend, President Trump told reporters that he's rejecting the proposal Iran put forward to end the war. It had laid out a 7-day timeline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart talks about Iran's nuclear program.
阿巴斯·阿拉格齐: 谈判桌上已经摆着一个非常合理的方案。如果他们毫无理由地予以拒绝,那么责任完全在美方。
英文原文
Abbas Araghchi: There is a very reasonable plan on the table. If they reject it with no reason, this is their fault.
特蕾西·芒福德: 尽管特朗普作出了上述公开表态,伊朗外长昨天依然指出,鉴于美国历来存在表态前后矛盾的历史,伊朗仍在等待通过中间调解人传达的正式官方答复。
同样是在这个周末的英国:
英文原文
Tracy Mumford: Despite Trump's comments, Iran's foreign minister said yesterday that given a history of contradictory messaging from the US, Iran was waiting to hear an official rejection from mediators. Also this weekend in the UK.
英国警方发言人: 今天凌晨大约12点45分,警方接到报警电话,称有三辆形迹可疑的车辆正驶向费尔福德皇家空军基地(RAF Fairford)。
英文原文
UK Police Spokesperson: So at around 12:45 a.m. today, police received a call relating to three suspicious vehicles traveling towards RAF Fairford.
特蕾西·芒福德: 英国当局表示,他们成功挫败了一起针对该空军基地的疑似恐怖袭击图谋。美军此前一直在利用该基地对伊朗目标发起空袭行动。
英文原文
Tracy Mumford: Authorities said they thwarted a possible terror attack at an air base that the US military has been using for its strikes on Iran.
英国警方发言人: 军方的爆炸物拆除部队(EOD)在对可疑车辆进行排查期间,周围已经拉起了一个半径400米的警戒封锁线。
英文原文
UK Police Spokesperson: A 400 meter cordon has been put in place around the vehicles while the army's explosive ordinance disposal unit examined them.
特蕾西·芒福德: 昨天的现场画面显示,一台排爆机器人在三辆白色厢式货车附近展开作业。官方证实,作为预防措施,他们已经紧急疏散了周边数十户居民住宅。警方宣布以涉嫌恐怖主义罪名逮捕了五名男子,调查人员目前正在深入核实此案是否与伊朗存在关联。
今年早些时候,伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队(IRGC)曾向英国政府发出公开警告称:“任何被用于对伊朗领土发动袭击的军事基地,都将成为我军合法打击的目标。”位于英格兰南部的费尔福德基地跑道,是全欧洲少数几条长度足以起降美军重型轰炸机的跑道之一。尽管英国最初曾拒绝允许美军使用该基地介入美伊冲突,但英国政府后来批准了美军的进驻与使用。
逮捕事件发生后,英国首相发表声明称,关于事发经过的调查仍在全面进行中,并呼吁公众切勿对其作案动机妄加揣测。此外,调查人员也在密切排查该案是否与俄罗斯存在牵连,此前俄罗斯曾多次被指控在英国本土策划并实施袭击行动。
英文原文
Tracy Mumford: Footage from the scene yesterday appeared to show a bomb disposal robot operating near three white vans. And officials said they'd evacuated dozens of surrounding homes as a precaution. They said they'd arrested five men on suspicion of terrorism. And investigators are looking into whether there's any link to Iran. Earlier this year, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps delivered a warning to the British government that quote, "Any base used to launch attacks on Iranian territory is a legitimate target for our forces." The runway at the base in southern England is one of the few in Europe that's long enough to be used by heavy American bombers. And while the UK initially declined to let the US use it for the Iran conflict, the government later signed off on it. In the wake of the arrests, Britain's prime minister said an investigation into what happened is still ongoing, and he urged people not to speculate about any motive. Investigators are also looking into whether there's any link to Russia, which has been accused of orchestrating previous attacks on British soil.
特朗普政府争议举措:削减预算与政治广告
特蕾西·芒福德: 接下来是关于特朗普政府的两则最新动态。
首先,白宫方面宣布,计划取消已经获得国会正式批准的超过8亿美元的联邦教育和卫生项目专项资金。这是该届政府第二次试图利用财政日历(fiscal calendar)的时间差漏洞,在完全没有立法者参与投票批准的情况下强行削减财政支出。这一在法律层面尚未经过司法检验的操作手法,将剥夺包括医学卫生研究项目以及针对外来移民学生援助计划在内的多项资金支持。
去年,该届政府就曾使用完全相同的手段砍掉了数十亿美元的对外援助资金——他们故意在9月30日财年截止日临近时才提交资金取消申请,以至于国会根本没有充足的时间来投票予以驳回。参议院拨款委员会主席、共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯(Susan Collins)直斥最新的削减提议属于“违法行为”。而拨款委员会民主党领袖帕蒂·默里(Patty Murray)则将其严厉定性为“彻头彻尾对美国人民的公开盗窃”。
英文原文
Tracy Mumford: Now, two quick updates on the Trump administration. First, the White House says it plans to cancel more than $800 million in federal funding for education and health related programs that Congress had approved. This is the second time the administration has tried to take advantage of a quirk in the fiscal calendar to cut money without input from lawmakers. The legally untested maneuver would pull back funding for, among other things, programs for health research and the support of migrant students. Last year, the administration used the same method to cut billions in foreign aid, putting in the request so close to September 30th, the end of the fiscal year, that Congress did not have time to reject it. The chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, Republican Susan Collins, called the latest proposed cuts illegal. And the top Democrat on the Appropriations Committee, Patty Murray, described it as quote, "Theft from the American people, plain and simple."
唐纳德·特朗普: 这是最后的决战。有你们与我并肩作战,我们必将彻底粉碎深层政府(deep state)。我们将彻底赶走那些痛恨我们国家的病态政治阶级。
英文原文
Donald Trump: This is the final battle. With you at my side, we will demolish the deep state. We will throw off the sick political class that hates our country.
特蕾西·芒福德: 这个周末,正在观看电视节目的美国民众——无论是在收看《周六夜现场》(Saturday Night Live),还是在收看大型大学橄榄球赛或NFL职业橄榄球赛时——都看到了这则由特朗普总统亲自出镜的广告,片中他誓言要全力打击共产主义者、马克思主义者和法西斯分子。
这则电视宣传片看起来非常像是一则竞选广告,配有特朗普极具戏剧张力的镜头特写,但在广告片尾,屏幕上却赫然闪过一行小字:“由美国政府出资赞助”(paid for by the US government)。这是该届政府近期推出的一系列亲特朗普主题广告之一。虽然目前尚不清楚制作与投放的总成本究竟是多少,但据一项初步评估显示,仅其占用的黄金档电视播放时段费用就已超过100万美元。
政府辩称这些广告属于“公益宣传”(public service announcements),旨在“提醒美国人热爱自己的国家”。然而,多位政府伦理法规专家严正指出,此类广告已经公然越过了法律红线,严重违反了严禁挪用纳税人税款从事党派政治宣传的联邦法律法规。
英文原文
Tracy Mumford: Americans watching TV this weekend, Saturday Night Live, or some big college football or NFL games, were shown an ad featuring President Trump vowing to take on communists, Marxists, and fascists. The TV spot looked like a campaign ad featuring dramatic shots of Trump, but at the end, the screen flashed, paid for by the US government. It's one of a series of pro-Trump ads the administration has put out recently. And while it's not clear how much they cost, one estimate puts the price of the airtime at more than a million dollars. The administration has said the ads are public service announcements, quote, reminding Americans to love their country. But some ethics experts say the ads have crossed a line and violate federal rules against using taxpayer dollars for propaganda.
亚马逊无人机配送与得州小镇的烦恼
朱丽叶·麦库尔: 最后,在得克萨斯州的理查森市(Richardson, Texas),在星期六的早晨,你可能只是优哉游哉地走在街道上。鸟儿在空中飞翔,几辆汽车缓缓驶过,周围显得相当静谧祥和。
突然之间,一架巨大的无人机毫无征兆地出现在你的正头顶上,嗡嗡作响的轰鸣声犹如蜂巢里数以十亿计的蜜蜂在同时振翅,然后飞速从你的头顶呼啸掠过。这架无人机足有5英尺高、5英尺宽(约1.5米见方),重量高达83磅(约37.6公斤)。所以,这绝非普通人平时用来拍摄照片或录制视频的那种轻巧小型无人机。
当你亲眼目睹它准备降落送货时,那种场面简直就像是在上演人类登月着陆一样:它先是非常缓慢地垂直下降,悬停在距离地面大约12英尺(约3.6米)的空中,随后机身底部的货舱门缓缓打开,直接将包裹‘吐’落在地上。
英文原文
Juliet Macur: And finally, in the town of Richardson, Texas, you could just be walking down the street. You know, birds are flying on a Saturday morning. You know, some cars are going by. It's pretty peaceful. And then you see this drone appear above you, buzzing like billions of bees at once in a hive, and go over you really quickly. It's 5ft tall by 5ft wide and it weighs 83 lb. So this isn't like the little drones that people might have to, you know, take pictures or videos. And when you see it coming in for a delivery, you know, it's sort of like the moon landing, right? It sort of goes down really slowly and hovers about 12 ft above the ground and its cargo door opens and it just spits out this box.
特蕾西·芒福德: 我的同事朱丽叶·麦库尔一直在持续跟踪报道这个达拉斯郊区小镇如何沦为无人机配送测试场的现状。理查森市是全美首批获得批准由亚马逊(Amazon)测试其名为“Prime Air”无人机配送项目的城市之一。每天,成群结队的无人机从附近的分拣配送中心腾空而起,嗡嗡作响地穿梭掠过周边居民社区的上空,将包裹精准投放到居民的私人院落中——至少计划的初衷是这样设想的。
然而在现实中,已经有视频拍到亚马逊的无人机发生意外事故:有的无人机直接把包裹误投进了居民家的游泳池里,还有的无人机径直撞上了居民公寓大楼。
对于亚马逊而言,理查森仅仅是一个试验起点。公司发言人声称收到的客户反馈“压倒性地积极正面”,并雄心勃勃地计划在未来几个月内将 Prime Air 无人机配送网络迅速扩张到全美数百个城镇与城市。然而,居住在无人机飞行航线正下方的许多当地居民却向朱丽叶反映,他们的亲身遭遇应该成为其他城市的前车之鉴和警世预言。
英文原文
Tracy Mumford: My colleague Juliet Macur has been reporting on how a Dallas suburb has become a testing ground for delivery by drone. Richardson is one of the first cities in the country where Amazon has gotten permission to test what it's calling Prime Air. And every day, dozens of drones lift off from a nearby distribution center and buzz across the surrounding neighborhoods to drop off packages on people's property. That's the goal anyway. There is footage of Amazon drones accidentally dropping a package into a pool and crashing into an apartment building. For Amazon, Richardson is just the beginning. A spokeswoman said customer feedback had been quote "overwhelmingly positive" and the company's got plans to expand Prime Air to hundreds more towns and cities across the US in the next few months. But some residents who live under the drones flight path told Juliet that their experience should be a cautionary tale.
朱丽叶·麦库尔: 我先后走访了几个被当地居民称作‘无人机高速公路’下方的住宅社区。
英文原文
Juliet Macur: I ended up walking around several neighborhoods that were under what now residents are calling a drone highway.
当地居民A: 就像我坐在厨房餐桌旁居家办公时,我就能清晰地听见它们嗡嗡作响地呼啸飞过。
英文原文
Resident A: Like sitting at my kitchen table where I do my work from home. I can hear them flying buzzing by.
朱丽叶·麦库尔: 总体而言,社区弥漫着一种普遍的情绪,那就是所有人都极其痛恨这些无人机。
英文原文
Juliet Macur: And overall the the general feeling was that everyone hated the drones.
当地居民B: 这根本不像有人推着割草机过来割20分钟草然后就离开,这噪音是整整持续一整天的!大家都讨厌这种尖锐刺耳的噪音,讨厌头顶总有黑影晃过,更讨厌装有摄像头的机器每隔几分钟就在自己家房顶上盘旋窥探的侵犯感。
英文原文
Resident B: It's not like somebody came in 20 minutes to mow the grass and leave. It's all day long. They hated the sound. They hated the sight of it. And they hated the intrusion of something with cameras flying over their house every few minutes.
当地居民C: 嗖——嗖——嗖——嗖——整天飞个不停!我当时就忍不住抱怨:“今天可是星期天啊!难道我们就不能享受哪怕一天的清静安宁吗?”
英文原文
Resident C: Zoom, zoom, zoom, zoom, zoom. I said, "It's a Sunday. Can we not have one day a peace?"
特蕾西·芒福德: 朱丽叶表示,一些不堪其扰的居民已经出席了市议会听证会表达抗议,多次向亚马逊官方投诉,并试图将他们的诉求上报给掌控空域管辖权的美国联邦航空管理局(FAA),但这些维权抗议并未取得多少实质性进展。现在,他们转而开始向亚马逊即将推广扩张的其他城市的官员写公开信,以过来人的沉痛教训警告他们:Prime Air 试点项目在他们的小镇简直是一场彻头彻尾的“灾难”。
尽管如此,超高速即时送达服务的诱惑力确实让人难以抵挡。而且亚马逊也绝非这条赛道上的唯一玩家,沃尔玛(Walmart)同样在加紧布局无人机即时配送业务。就连一位此前强烈抱怨无人机每天在自家后院上空飞来飞去的居民也坦承,有一次她自己的女儿急着做三明治吃,居然也忍不住通过无人机直接从沃尔玛急送下单了一包火腿肉。
这就是今天《每日新闻》的要闻回顾。
英文原文
Tracy Mumford: Juliet says some residents have gone to city council meetings, complained to Amazon, and tried to escalate their concerns to the FAA, which controls the airspace, but they haven't gotten much traction and are now turning to writing letters warning officials in other cities where Amazon is about to expand, that the Prime Air program has been a quote disaster. Still, the appeal of faster and faster delivery can be hard to resist. And Amazon's not the only one in the game. Walmart's trying it, too. And one of the residents, who has complained about the drones flying over her backyard, acknowledged that her own daughter had been in a rush to make a sandwich at one point and ordered a package of ham from Walmart via drone. Those are the headlines today on the daily.
结尾预告:第三国驱逐政策亲历记录
被遣返移民: 当时一名执法官员走了出来,对我说:“行了,你现在人在非洲了。”我当场震惊地反驳道:“兄弟,我到底为什么会跑到非洲来?我根本就从来没想过要去非洲!”
英文原文
Deported Migrant: One of the officer, he came out and he goes, "Well, you in Africa." I said, "What the hell am I doing in Africa, bro? I don't want to go to Africa."
特蕾西·芒福德: 这是一份关于特朗普政府推行的‘第三国驱逐出境政策’(third country deportation policy)的第一手亲历者真实讲述——在这项极具争议的政策下,许多移民正被强行驱逐遣送到与他们毫无血缘关系、毫无身份纽带的陌生国家。
您可以在《纽约时报》应用程序或任何主流播客平台上收听该节目的完整深度报道。如果您目前还不是《纽约时报》的订阅用户,现在只要下载《纽约时报》App,即可免费畅享整整一个月的深度新闻报道。
我是特蕾西·芒福德,我们明天再见。
英文原文
Tracy Mumford: A first person account of the Trump administration's third country deportation policy, where migrants are being sent to countries they have no connections to. You can find that in the New York Times app or wherever you get your podcasts. And if you are not a Time subscriber yet, you can get a full month of free access to all of the journalism we publish when you download the Times app now. I'm Tracy Mumford. We'll be back tomorrow.