历史的教训:互联网泡沫与安然事件
回想1999年到2000年,在美国发生了一些非常有趣的事情。
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Think back to the year 1999, 2000 in the United States. Something very interesting was happening.
互联网泡沫(dot-com bubble: 20世纪90年代末期,科技股估值过高,随后迅速下跌的经济现象)破裂了。
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The dot-com bubble burst.
当时我是一名年轻的助理教授,在一所商学院教书,主要教MBA学生,他们中的许多人期望进入一个能够探索技术和这个新互联网世界角色的行业。
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I was a young assistant professor teaching at a business school, mainly MBA students, many of whom were expecting to enter a career into an industry where they would get to explore the role of technology and this new dot-com universe.
然而,所有这些期望都付诸东流。
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And all of that goes by the wayside.
次年,安然公司(Enron: 曾是美国最大的能源、商品和服务公司之一,2001年因会计欺诈破产)倒闭。
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The following year, Enron collapses.
随后,你看到一系列首席执行官被新闻媒体曝光,有的戴着手铐,有的走向法庭,因为美国商业部门出现了整体崩溃。
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And then you see a series of CEOs trapesed across the news media, either in handcuffs or headed to court because there was just a collapse of the business sector in the United States.
作为一名商学院教授,面对着成群的、易受影响的年轻人,他们都以为自己会进入这个行业,我当时真的在思考:我该对这些年轻人说什么?
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As a business school professor, looking out at the scores of young impressionable minds who all thought they were going to enter this industry, I was really grappling with what do I say to these young people?
当他们看到的一切都表明商业是糟糕的、领导力是糟糕的、系统中的某些东西已经崩溃时,我该如何向他们传达商业实际上是并且可以成为一股向善的力量?
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How do I convey that to them that business actually is and can be a force for good when everything they see is that business is bad, that leadership is bad, that something in the system is broken?
幸运的是,这让我对理解组织危机产生了兴趣,但并非因为我好奇哪里出了问题。
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Well, fortunately for me, that led to an interest in understanding organizational crises, but not so much because I was curious about what goes wrong.
我真正想回答的问题是:那些从组织危机中走出来的公司,它们是如何做到的?
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I really wanted to answer the question, how do those companies that come out of organization that come out of crisis, how do they do that?
它们是如何成功的?
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How do they succeed?
在最动荡的时期,推动组织前进所需的领导力特征是什么?
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What are the leadership characteristics that are necessary to drive organizations through the most tumultuous times?
重新定义危机:区分日常不便与真正威胁
因此,这促使我进行了数十年的研究,研究组织领导力、组织文化,尤其是在危机时期。
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So that led to decades of research for me and studying organizational leadership, organizational culture, particularly in times of crisis.
所以我想和大家分享一下我所学到的一些东西。
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So I want to share with you a little bit about what I've learned.
我学到的第一件事是,我们必须非常清楚我们所说的“危机”到底是什么意思。
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The first thing I've learned is that we have to be really clear about what we mean by a crisis.
如果你曾说过或听人说过,当他们走进办公室时会说:“我们今天在处理什么危机?”请举手。
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Raise your hand if you have said or have heard people say as they go into the office, "Well, what crisis are we managing today?
有人听到过吗?
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Anyone hear that?
有人说过吗?
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Anyone said that?
我们这周要扑灭多少“火”?
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How many fires do we have to put out this week?
对吧?
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Right?
我们使用这种语言,仿佛日常的不便就是真正的危机。
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We use this language as if everyday problems that are inconveniences are actually crises.
当我们这样做时,我们削弱了员工实际管理重大事件的能力。
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And when we do that, we make impotent our the ability of our workforce to actually manage something that is significant.
那么,什么是重大事件呢?
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So what is significant?
真正的危机是任何具有潜在威胁组织财务状况、声誉或合法性的负面事件。
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A real crisis is any negative event that has the potential to threaten an organization's financial well-being, reputation, or legitimacy.
我认为可以肯定地说,我们现在正在经历的全球动荡,人们正在应对真正的危机。
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I think it's pretty safe to say that what we're experiencing now, the tumult across the world, there are real crises that people are dealing with.
这才是我们应该关注的。
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That is what we should be focused on.
我们如何帮助人们和领导者在这种环境中运作?
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How do we help people and leaders operate in these kind of environments?
而不是我们宁愿不处理的日常不便。
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Not the daily barrage of inconveniences that we'd rather not deal with.
两种危机类型:突发危机与潜在危机
但我们也谈论危机,仿佛所有危机都是一样的。
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But we also talk about crisis as if all crises are the same.
我想让大家思考两种不同类型的危机。
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And I want to have you think about two different types of crises.
一种是,我们谈到了财务状况,谈到了声誉风险。
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One is well, we talked about the financial well-being, talked about reputational risks.
看起来熟悉吗?
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Look familiar?
我也谈到了合法性。
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And I've talked about the legitimacy.
我们稍后会更详细地讨论所有这些。
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We're going to go into a little more detail on all of these in just a moment.
两种不同类型的危机:突发危机(Sudden crises: 外部强加、责任和控制力较小的事件,如自然灾害、恐怖袭击)和潜在危机(smoldering crises: 内部产生、从小问题开始但被忽视,最终可能爆发的事件,如产品缺陷、劳资纠纷)。
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Two different types of crises. Sudden crises and smoldering crises.
突发危机是那些通常由外部强加给组织的事件。
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Sudden crisis are those kinds of events that are typically externally imposed on an organization.
公司发生了一些事情,而你对此大部分没有责任或控制权。
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something happens to the company that for the most part you have very little responsibility for or control over.
自然灾害、恐怖袭击、首席执行官去世等等。
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Natural disasters, a terrorist attack, CEO death, etc.
这些是突然发生的事件,会让你措手不及。
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These are sudden events that happen that sort of throw you offkilter.
你们中有多少人花时间思考和计划突发危机?
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How many of you spend your time thinking and planning for a sudden crisis?
请举手。
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Raise your hand.
少数人。
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Handful.
好的,另一种危机是潜在危机。
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Okay, another type of crisis, smoldering crisis.
潜在危机是那些在组织内部从小处开始,应该被发现是问题,但往往被忽视的事情,因为我们认为“哦,那只是小事,没关系”。
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Smoldering crisis are those things that start out small and internal in the organization that should be spotted as a problem, but oftentimes go ignored because we think, "Oh, that's a little thing. It it will be fine."
但因为我们忽视了它,它往往会发展、恶化,并随着时间的推移爆发成更重大的事件。
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But because we've ignored it, it tends to grow and fester and over time can erupt into something more significant.
屏幕上显示的是潜在危机的例子:产品缺陷、劳资纠纷、安全违规、集体诉讼。
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You see on the screen examples of sudden of smoldering crises, product defects, labor disputes, safety violations, class action lawsuits.
所有这些都是组织内部出了问题的信号。
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All of these things are signals that something is not right in the organization.
你们中有多少人花时间计划这些事件?
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How many of you spend your time planning for these events?
对于屏幕前的各位,很少有人举手,对吧?
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For those of you on the screen, very few hands are raised, right?
我们主要计划那些耸人听闻的事件,比如自然灾害。
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我们作为领导者,或我们的组织,通常不会为这类事件做好准备。
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We don't often prepare ourselves as leaders or our organizations for these kinds of events.
你更有可能遇到哪种情况?
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Which are you more likely to encounter?
突发事件还是潜在事件?
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A sudden event or a smoldering event?
潜在事件?
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A smoldering event?
对吧?
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Right?
这些在组织中更为常见。
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These are much more common place in organizations.
危机领导力的五个阶段
好消息是,我们作为高管、作为领导者,有行动偏好。
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The good news is that we as executives, as leaders, have a bias for action.
所以当事情发生时,我们立刻想进入遏制模式。
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So when something happens, we immediately want to go into containment mode.
我们想进行损害控制。
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We want to engage in damage control.
这完全说得通。
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Makes perfect sense.
但我认为,遏制和损害控制是领导力在危机时期必要但不足的方面。
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But I would argue that containment and damage control is a necessary but insufficient aspect of leadership particularly in times of crisis.
如果我们只关注这些,我们就没有创造一种能理解并知道如何应对整个危机局面的员工文化,这发生在事件发生之前,而不是仅仅在事件发生后你才进入响应模式。
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That's all we focus on. We're not creating a culture of a workforce that understands and knows how to deal across the crisis landscape which happens before the event happens, not just once something happens and you have to go into response mode.
所以我想花一点时间谈谈领导者应该采取哪些特征和行动来建立一种韧性文化以应对危机。
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So I want to spend a little bit of time talking about what are the characteristics, what are the actions that leaders should be engaged in to build a culture of resiliency in order to respond to crisis.
首先是关注环境中的信号。
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So, first is paying attention to the signals in your environment.
这些信号可能是你从员工那里收到的信息,可能是你从客户那里获得的洞察,可能是行业内的反馈,也可能是竞争对手发生的事情。
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Those signals could be uh information that you're receiving from employees, could be insights that you're receiving from your customers or clients, it could be feedback going on in the industry, it could be something that's happened to a competitor.
对吧?
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Right?
所有这些都是领导者应该关注的信息片段,并认识到环境中发生的事情也可能同样发生在他们的组织身上。
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All of these are pieces of information that leaders should be paying attention to, recognizing that what's happening in the environment could just as easily happen to their organization.
所以,要关注信号。
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So, paying attention to the signals.
接下来,一旦你有了这些信息,你会怎么做?
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Next, once you have that information, what do you do with it?
伟大的领导者会花时间与他们的团队合作,为一些可能发生的情况做准备。
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Great leaders actually take the time to work with their teams to prepare for some of those eventualities.
当然,我们永远无法识别、预测或为所有可能出错的事情做准备。
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Of course, we can never identify or predict or prepare for everything that could possibly go wrong.
但是,即使只是思考一种可能性,或者识别行业内正在发生的一些信号,并与团队一起进行演练,比如“如果发生这种情况我们会怎么做?”——这就是情景规划。
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But getting into the practice of even thinking about one possibility or recognizing some signal that is happening within your industry and going through the exercise with your teams, what would we do if it's the scenario planning?
这是对可能出错的事情进行准备和规划。
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It's the preparation and the planning for something that goes wrong.
通过这样做,你正在锻炼领导力肌肉,危机领导力肌肉,这样当事情真正发生时,你已经有了一些可以开始的基础。
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By doing that, you're building m muscle, leadership muscle, crisis leadership muscle, so that when something does happen, you've already got some foundation from which to to start.
现在,不可避免地,你将面临某种你宁愿没有的经历,某种危机。
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Now, inevitably, you will face, you will have some kind of experience that you'd rather not, some crisis.
在那时,你确实需要进入响应模式。
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And at that point, you do need to go into response mode.
你需要考虑损害控制。
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You need to think about damage control.
我如何管理这种印象?
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How do I manage this impression?
我如何处理?
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How do I deal with how do I stop the bleeding of what's happening in this moment?
我如何止住此刻正在发生的事情的“流血”?
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That's the stuff we're generally already really good at.
这通常是我们已经非常擅长的事情。
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But what happens after we engage in our recovery practice or in our our containment practices, we wipe our brow and we think, "Glad done.
但是,在我们进行恢复实践或遏制实践之后会发生什么呢?
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Now we can get back to business as usual.
我们擦擦额头,然后想:“太好了,完成了。现在我们可以恢复正常业务了。现在我们可以恢复正常了。”
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Now we can get back to normal.
超越损害控制:从灰烬中凤凰涅槃
但问题是,如果这只是一场只发生在你公司身上的危机,而你存在于一个更广阔的行业中,那么在你管理危机的时候,其他人都在做什么呢?
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But here's the problem. If this were a crisis that only happened to your company and you exist in a broader industry, what is everybody else doing while you were managing your crisis?
他们正在继续实现他们的战略目标。
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They were continuing with their strategic objectives.
所以,如果你的危机后目标是恢复正常,那么你很可能会在危机结束后比你的同行落后很多步,而他们却能够利用这段时间继续推进他们的战略。
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So if your goal post crisis is to get back to normal, chances are you're going to come out of that crisis many more steps behind your peers who were able to leverage that time to continue to advance their strategy.
因此,围绕遏制和损害控制的重点不是恢复正常。
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So the focus around containment, containment and damage control isn't about getting back to normal.
它是关于思考我们能从这里走向何方?
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It's about thinking where can we go from here?
在这场我们身处其中的混乱之后,凤凰如何从灰烬中崛起?
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What is the phoenix rising from the ashes after this mess that we've been a part of?
问自己,问你的团队这些问题:我们如何才能以一种能让我们变得更好、更强大、更有韧性的方式从这种境况中恢复过来?
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Asking yourself, asking your teams those questions. How do we recover from this circumstance in a way that will position us to be better, to be stronger, to be resilient?
对吧?
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Right?
学习与创新:不浪费一场好危机
最后,我们整个下午都在谈论的一件事是学习。
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And then lastly, something we've been talking about all afternoon, learning.
最好的领导者,因此也是最好的公司,是那些能够利用这些危机、动荡和极端变化的时刻,并认识到我们如何进行反思活动的公司。
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The best leaders and therefore the best companies are those that take these moments of crisis, of tumult, of extreme change and recognize how do we engage in an activity of reflection.
在军队中,他们称之为事后检讨(after-action review: 对已完成任务或事件进行系统性分析,以从中学习并改进未来表现的过程)。
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In the military, they call it the afteraction review.
我们如何通过这个有条理的过程来理解我们应该从刚刚经历的事情中吸取哪些教训?
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How do we go through this methodical process to understand what lessons we should take from what we've just experienced?
我们在制造这场危机中扮演了什么角色?
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What role did we play in creating this crisis?
我们做好了哪些准备,或者没有做好哪些准备?
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What ways were we prepared or not prepared?
这个学习过程将使你能够预防或减轻类似事件再次发生。
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That process of learning will position you for both preventing or mitigating something like this from happening again.
更重要的是,它能增加你利用这些学习成果进行创新的可能性。
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And even more importantly, it can enhance the likelihood that you will use these learnings to actually innovate.
你们都听说过“永远不要浪费一场好危机”这句话。
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You've all heard the phrase never waste a good crisis.
我不太喜欢这句话,因为它有点陈词滥调,但它背后所蕴含的道理是真实的。
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I don't particularly like that phrase because I phrase because I think it's kind of trit, but what underlies it is actually true.
那些从真正动荡的环境中最好地走出来的公司,是那些经历了学习反思过程并发现了机会的公司,这些机会可以引领、创造新产品、进行创新,并以他们从未考虑过的方式推动行业向前发展,如果不是因为这场危机的话。
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Those companies who have come out of really tumultuous circumstances the best are the ones who have gone through the learning reflection process and identified opportunities to lead to create a new product to be innovative to drive the sector forward in ways that they never would have considered doing had it not been for the crisis.
这就是危机领导力,包括所有这五个阶段,而不仅仅是进行损害控制或响应。
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This this is crisis leadership. all five of those stages, not just engaging in the damage control or the response.
那么,这对你作为一名领导者意味着什么呢?
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So what does that mean for you as a leader?
如果你在一段时间内思考你的响应机制是什么?
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When you think about over a period of time, what is your response mechanism?
如果我们的重点是损害控制,如果我们的重点仅仅是响应或应对当下,我们可能会解决那个问题,但我们并没有为真正从这些情况中发生的学习中获益做好准备。
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If our focus is on damage control, if our focus is on simply responding to or reacting to the here and now, we might fix that problem, but we're not setting ourselves up to really reap the benefits that could come from the learning that takes place from those situations.
管理行为,你在这里看到了。
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The management behaviors, you see them here.
你是被动的。
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You're reactive.
你专注于损害控制。
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You're focused on damage control.
这是一个短期关注。
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It's a short-term focus.
有限的利益相关者参与,因为你只围绕着一小群人,然后你躲进作战室说:“我们要这样做”,对吧?
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limited stakeholder engagement because you surround yourself by a very small group of people and you hunker down in the war room and you say here's what we're going to do, right?
我们今天早些时候听到的一些内容是:我如何让更多人参与进来?
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Some of what we heard earlier today is how do I engage more people?
我如何找到比我低五级但在一线并了解我们为何处于这种境况的人,以及我如何将这些信息融入我未来的决策中?
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How do I go to the person who's five levels down from me but is on the ground floor and understands what or why we're in this situation and how do I build that information into my decision-making going forward?
好的,这些管理实践并非不好。
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Okay, these management practices are not bad.
它们没有错。
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They're not wrong.
它们实际上是必要的。
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They are in fact necessary.
但如果这就是我们所做的一切,那么我们就没有建立成功的文化。
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But if that's all we do, then we're not building a culture for success.
如果相反,我们思考的是,是的,我们必须在当下做出响应,但随着时间的推移,还有更多工作要做。
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If instead we think about, yes, we have to be responsive in the moment, but over time there's still more work to do.
我们需要识别业务恢复周围的机会是什么。
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We need to identify what the opportunities are around the business recovery.
我们需要开始参与学习实践。
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We need to start engaging in learning practices.
这就是那些成功管理危机的公司和领导者与那些不成功的公司和领导者之间的区别。
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That's what differentiates those companies, those leaders who are successful in managing a crisis from those that are not.
以下是一些危机期间领导行为的例子。
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Here are some examples of leadership behaviors during crisis.
你正在你的系统中建立信任。
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You're building trust into your system.
最糟糕的事情是,如果危机发生而你没有在员工或客户中建立信任基础。
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The worst thing is if a crisis happens and you have not created that foundation of trust within your workforce or with your clients or customers.
当事情发生时,你需要他们支持你。
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when something happens and you then need them to be there for you.
如果你没有这种信任关系的基础,他们就不想在这种情况下。
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If you don't have that foundation of a trusting relationship, they don't want to be in that context.
他们不想被困在一个非常糟糕的境地。
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They don't want to be stuck in a really bad situation.
那时大多数人会找到出路并立即离开。
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That's when most people find the door and exit immediately.
但如果他们一直与你同在,如果他们信任你作为领导者,如果他们相信你一直把他们的最大利益放在心上,那时你就会得到你需要的人员团队,然后你们一起度过难关。
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But if they've been with you all along, if they trust you as a leader, if they believe that you've had their best interest at heart, that's when you get the team of people that you need and you go through this together.
建立信任是领导力和文化建设的关键方面。
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Building trust is a critical aspect of leadership and building culture.
再次强调,做好准备,思考这次经历可能带来什么可能性,进行反思并参与学习。
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Again, being prepared, thinking about what are the possibilities that might come from this experience, engaging in reflection and engaging in learning.
这就是我们教给学生的东西,也是我知道最好的公司和最强大的文化所从事的。
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This is what we teach our students and this is what I know the best companies and the strongest cultures engage in.
那么,有哪些机会可以实现呢?
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So, what are the opportunities to be realized?
一是减少未来负面事件的可能性或几率,二是增加未来正面事件的可能性。
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one, decreasing the limit the possibility or likelihood of future negative events or two increasing the possibility of future positive events.
就这么简单。
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It's that simple.
你将这些结果付诸实施,但它要么是好的,要么是坏的。
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You operationalize what those outcomes are, but it's either going to be good or bad.
四重底线:为未知做好准备
最后,我想分享的是,我们思考三重底线(triple bottom line: 衡量企业绩效的框架,关注经济、社会和环境三个维度)。
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I will end by sharing that we think about the triple bottom line.
我喜欢把它看作是四重底线(quadruple bottom line: 在三重底线基础上增加“目的”或“准备”等维度)。
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I like to think of it as a quadruple bottom line.
作为领导者,我们必须思考的一件事是准备。
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One of the things that we must be thinking about as leaders is preparing.
准备我们自己,准备我们的团队,准备我们的组织以应对意想不到的事情。
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Preparing ourselves, preparing our teams, preparing our organizations for the unexpected.
天知道我们现在所处的环境,很多事情都感觉是意想不到的。
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And Lord knows we are in an environment right now where a lot of things feel unexpected.
而那些做好准备的人,将是那些在这种情况下表现最好的人。
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And those who have been prepared are the ones who will come out of this context the best.
谢谢大家。
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Thank you.
[掌声]
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[Applause]