先买后付(BNPL)的兴起:一场被掩盖的金融危机? Bloomberg Podcasts 2025-09-04

BNPL的兴起与最初的理解

Tracy: 大家好,欢迎收听《Odd Lots》播客的又一期节目。我是Tracy Alloway。

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Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Aloway

Joe: 我是Joe Weisenthal。

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and I'm Joe Weisenthal.

Tracy: Joe,我得坦白一件事。

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Joe, I have a confession to make.

Joe: 是吗?

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Yeah.

Tracy: 我经常网购,非常频繁,可能比健康的生活方式所允许的还要多。

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I do a lot of online shopping. Like a lot. More than is healthy. Probably

Joe: 我在办公室里从你身后看,问你在看什么的时候,就已经意识到了。我确实会那样做,你从来不喜欢,但我还是会做。

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more than I realize from looking over your shoulder in the office and asking you what you're looking up because I do do that and you never like it, but I still do it.

Tracy: 不,因为有时我确实在办公室里网购。但几年前,我注意到一个现象,网购发生了一个变化。你知道那是什么吗?

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No, because sometimes I am in fact shopping online in the office. But a few years ago, I noticed a phenomenon, a change when it came to online shopping. You know what that was?

Joe: 我能猜到。

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I can guess.

Tracy: 是的,没错。突然之间,每当我结账时,你都会看到一个提示,通常是一个小按钮,上面写着“你想选择先买后付(Buy Now Pay Later, BNPL: 一种允许消费者分期付款的短期信贷方式)选项吗?”通常是与Klarna或Affirm这样的公司合作。

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Yeah. All right. All of a sudden, whenever I was checking out, you would get an offer, a little button usually that would say, "Do you want to take a buy now, pay later option, and usually it's with a company like CLA or a firm or something like that?"

Joe: 它们现在无处不在。

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They're everywhere now.

Joe: 我当然见过所有这些按钮,但我从未使用过。我不太明白为什么没有用,因为为什么不分散支付呢?我为什么要……说真的,我的理解是这种商业模式的核心是它没有正式的利息,对吗?所以如果你购买100美元的商品,你可以分四期支付,每期25美元。所以无论是现在支付100美元,还是四个月后支付100美元,对最终买家来说都是一样的,这当然在理论上是不符合直觉的,因为货币有时间价值。但其理念是零售商隐性地支付利息,因为这是一种客户获取方式。因此,零售商隐性地愿意在一段时间内(而不是一次性)收取100美元或任何金额,以换取让客户更容易购买。但从客户的角度来看,比如你和我,我们大概有钱购买我们正在买的东西,我仍然不明白为什么我们不都使用先买后付(BNPL)服务,因为为什么不把我们的购买分散到未来呢?

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So, like I've certainly seen all these buttons. I've never used it. I don't really know why I haven't because like why shouldn't I spread out? Why shouldn't I? Like for real, like my understanding is that the core of the business model works is that there's no like formal interest, right? So if you make a $100 purchase, you get to spread it out say in four payments of $25. And so whether it's $100 right now or $100 in four months, it's the same from the end buyer, which of course in theory because there's a time value of money is not intuitive. But the idea is that the retailer implicitly pays the interest because it's a form of customer acquisition. And so the retailer is implicitly willing to take a $100 or whatever over x period of time rather than all at once in exchange for essentially making it easier for customers to buy. But from the customer perspective, like you and me who presumably have the money to make to buy what we're purchasing, I still don't get why we don't all use buy now pay later because why not spread out our purchases further out into the future.

Tracy: 你知道Rebel Wilson在Affirm的广告里是怎么描述它的吗?

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You know how Rebel Wilson described it in a firm commercial.

Joe: 我不知道,我没看过。

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I didn't I don't I haven't seen it.

Tracy: 就像吃一桶冰淇淋,但把卡路里分散到四周内摄入。

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Like eating a tub of ice cream but spreading out the calories over four weeks.

Joe: 完全正确。为什么不呢?

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Exactly. Why don't

Tracy: 它仍然是600卡路里,对吧?问题就在这里。但我想,好吧,

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it's still 600 calories, right? That's the issue. But I think, okay,

Joe: 显然这是一个微妙的话题。

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so this is obviously a nuance subject.

Tracy: 是的。

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Yes.

Tracy: 显然0%的利息听起来不是问题,但如果你未能支付,

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So clearly 0% interest doesn't sound like a problem, but obviously if you fail to pay,

Joe: 对,

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right,

Tracy: 你就要支付罚金。

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you pay a penalty fee,

Joe: 那么罚金就会开始累积,对吧?所以有这一点。但这些先买后付(BNPL)产品还有另一个问题,这真的很有趣。我有点把它看作是信贷私人市场的一个平行现象。也就是说,存在着一个我们实际上没有很好数据、但正在增长的额外信贷或杠杆的完整世界。是的,关键在于它正在增长。

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then you then the penalties start building up, right? So there's that. But the other issue with some of these buy now pay later items, and it's really interesting. I kind of think about this as a parallel to the private market in credit. So this idea that there's this like whole world of additional credit or leverage that we don't actually have very good data on. Yeah. And that is growing, right? I think that is the key.

Joe: 所以我是这样看待这个问题的:如果我能吃一桶冰淇淋,然后把卡路里分散到四个月内消耗,我当然会那样做。那听起来很棒,因为我每天会消耗一定数量的卡路里。所以如果我有四个月的时间来消耗它们,那会效率得多。但反过来说,我可能会吃更多的冰淇淋。所以,我会在那一天吃四倍、四桶冰淇淋,因为我知道我有这个四个月的卡路里预算。所以问题仍然是,好吧,也许没有正式的利息,或者有罚款,但我正在用今天的购买力购买更多的东西。这对于最终消费者来说可能仍然是不可持续的,即使它没有被正式记录为我们所衡量的消费债务。这里还有一层额外的因素。假设你正在减肥或努力保持健康,并且你有一个营养师。

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So here's how I see the issue, which is that if I could have a tub of ice cream and spread out the calories over four months, I would certainly do that. That sounds pretty great because I burn a certain number of calories in a day. And so if I had four months to burn them, that that would be far more efficient. But the flip side is, well, I would eat more ice cream. So, so I would eat four times I would eat four times as many tubs of ice cream in that given day knowing that I have this fourmonth calorie budget. And so then you still get the question of like, okay, maybe there's not a formal interest or maybe there's penalties, but I'm buying a lot more with today's buying power. And that may still yet prove to be unsustainable to the end consumer even if it doesn't formally clock as what we measure as consumer debt. Here's the added layer. Let's say you're trying to lose weight or trying to be healthy and you have like a dietician.

Tracy: 想象一下吃冰淇淋,但他却永远不知道你在吃冰淇淋,对吧?就像这样。

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Imagine eating the ice cream but him never knowing that you're eating the ice cream, right? Like this is

Joe: 嗯,我一直对我的医生撒谎。我是说,我已经习惯了。

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Well, I I lie to my doctors all the time. I mean, I'm used to that.

Tracy: 好的。好吧。与其我们争论这个,我们确实

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Okay. All right. Rather than us debate this, we do in fact

Joe: 你到底撒了多少谎?嗯,你知道,我每周都会经历一次3毫克的戒断。我确实戒了,我正在说这个,但是

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how much didn't do you Well, you know, like once a week I like go through a 3 milligram thing. I did actually quit and I'm saying it but

Tracy: 你今天早上告诉我的。你说你不会

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you told me this this morning. You said you were not going to z

Tracy: 与其我们争论这个,我们确实请来了最合适的嘉宾。我们将与Julie Morgan对话。她是世纪基金会(Century Foundation: 一家进步主义智库)的主席,此前曾在消费者金融保护局(Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, CFPB: 负责监管美国金融产品和服务的联邦机构)工作,她在那里深入思考了先买后付(BNPL)现象。所以我们现在就来听听她的想法。Julie,欢迎来到节目。

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us talk about this, we do in fact have the perfect guest. We're going to be speaking with Julie Morgan. She is a president of the Century Foundation, formerly at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the CFPB, where she thought a lot about the buy now pay later phenomenon. So we're going to get some of her thoughts right now. Julie, welcome to the show.

Julie: 谢谢。我很高兴能来到这里。

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Thank you. I'm so excited to be here.

Tracy: 那么,这是怎么发生的?这种商业模式究竟是如何产生的?因为对我来说,它感觉非常突然,但另一方面,我长期不在美国,所以也许它是一个相当渐进的过程。

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So, how did this happen? Like, how did this business model actually come about? Because it it felt very sudden to me, but on the other hand, I was outside of the US for a long time, so maybe it was quite gradual.

BNPL商业模式的演变与误解

Julie: 我非常高兴能回答这个问题,原因有很多,包括你们介绍它的方式。因为你们花了很多时间谈论先买后付(BNPL)是一种分四期支付、零利息、可能无费用或低费用的模式。我们确实看到这种模式在疫情期间出现,并成为消费者在疫情期间购买商品方式中一个更加突出的部分。所以如果我能带你们回到消费者金融保护局(CFPB)的早期,那时我们刚刚走出疫情,看到先买后付(BNPL)的兴起。监管机构和研究人员开始调查它,以了解它对消费者的意义以及存在的风险。我认为当时对先买后付(BNPL)有两种基本假设。第一种就是我们所说的:它是一种分四期支付、无利息、低费用或无费用的模式。第二种是人们以一种我称之为典型的“Z世代”方式使用它。他们用它来资助购买比他们通常会买的稍微大一点或更奢侈的商品。而且通常是在手提包或衣物之类的东西上。随着时间的推移,我们发现这两种假设都被证明是错误的。对吗?所以第一点,我们现在看到并称之为先买后付(BNPL)的产品,实际上并不总是那种分四期支付的产品。事实上,许多我们与先买后付(BNPL)联系在一起的公司,比如Affirm或Klarna,大多不提供那种产品。Affirm表示那种产品只占他们业务的20%。他们业务的其余部分是我所说的销售点贷款或短期分期贷款,利率范围从10%到30%,期限从30天到6个月或18个月不等。

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I'm really excited to answer this question for a number of reasons, including the way that you all introduced this because you spent a lot of time talking about buy now, pay later as this pay infor, zero interest, maybe like no fee or low fee model. And we did see that model arise during the pandemic and become a much more salient part of the way consumers were paying for goods during the pandemic. And so if I could take you back to kind of those early years at the CFPB where we're coming out of the pandemic, we're seeing this rise in buy now pay later. You know, regulators and researchers started to investigate this to understand what it meant for consumers and what the risks were. And I think there were kind of two fundamental assumptions about buy now pay later at that time. One was just what we said. It's a payinfor no interest low or no fee model. And then two people were using this in kind of the like what I think of as a stereotypical Gen Z kind of way. They were using it to finance a purchase that was slightly larger or more extravagant than what they would have bought. And it was usually on something like a purse or an item of clothing. What we found over time is that both of those assumptions turned out to be wrong. Right? So number one, what we're seeing right now as buy now pay later and calling buy now pay later is not in fact always that pay inforest product. And in fact many of the companies that we associate with buy now pay later like a firm or CLA are mostly not offering that product. So a firm says that product is only 20% of their business. The rest of their business is what I would think of as like a like point of sale loans or short-term installment loans with interest rates ranging from, you know, 10 to 30% and terms that range from 30 days to 6 or 18 months.

Joe: 所以,它仍然是先买后付(BNPL),但更像是一种正式的贷款。

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So, it's buy now pay later, but it's more like just a formal loan.

Julie: 是的,我的意思是,

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Yeah. I mean,

Joe: 它是分期付款,有还款计划,但也有一个消费者可见的名义利率。

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it's payment in installment and there's a schedule, but also there is a nominal interest rate that's visible to the consumer.

Julie: 完全正确。我认为它仍然是先买后付(BNPL),从任何贷款(包括你的抵押贷款)都是“先买后付”的意义上来说。对吗?所以他们保留了这种营销策略,我认为它对消费者非常有吸引力,并且安抚了监管机构,

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Exactly. And I think it is buy now pay later in the sense that any loan including your mortgage is buy now pay later. Right? So they've they've kind of kept this this marketing that I think was really appealing to consumers and that sort of soothed regulators

Julie: 这些产品风险相当低,然后开始将其转变为看起来非常不同的产品。

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that these products were fairly low risk and then started shifting that into these products that look very different.

数据收集与信用评分的挑战

Joe: 好的,无论是我们谈论新产品还是Tracy和我最初描述的传统先买后付(BNPL),目前数据收集情况如何?我们知道信用卡数据会被收集,也有关于信用卡总量的公开统计数据,那么目前这些数据是如何分类和收集的呢?

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Okay. whether we're talking about the new products or the sort of the traditional BNPL the way Tracy and I described it in the beginning currently what kind of collection of data like when that happens so we know like credit card data gets collected there is public statistics about just the sheer volume of credit cards what do we have right now in terms of where this gets slotted and how it's collected as data

Julie: 是的,我们没有大量数据。所以我们有几种不同的方式来审视先买后付(BNPL),其中大部分是通过政府来源。联邦储备委员会和消费者金融保护局(CFPB)有能力从公司那里获取数据。如果你查看消费者金融保护局(CFPB)关于先买后付(BNPL)的报告,他们就是在这样做。他们通过市场监测指令获取交易层面的数据。那不是

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yeah we don't have a ton so we have a couple of different ways of looking at buy now pay later most of It is through government sources. So the Federal Reserve and the CFPB have the ability to pull data from the companies. And if you look at the CFPB's reports on buy now pay later, that is what they're doing. They're pulling transaction level data through market monitoring orders. That's not

Joe: 这些。但是当你说市场监测指令时,为了明确起见,这些公司是否被强制定期向消费者金融保护局(CFPB)提供一定级别的数据?

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these. But when you say market monitoring orders, just to be clear, the companies are compelled to regularly update the CFPB with some level of data.

Julie: 他们被强制提供数据,但“定期”不是其中的一部分。所以这往往是一次性的,对吗?我们没有来自公司的一致数据流,所以这给了我们一个了解先买后付(BNPL)领域情况的小窗口,但这真的不够。然后我们有调查数据,这就是你看到LendingTree和Axios等公司询问消费者的地方,我认为重要的是要理解

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They're compelled to provide data, the regularly piece is not part of it. So this tends to be a oneoff, right? we don't have a consistent stream of data coming from the companies and so that gives us like a small window into what's happening in the buy now pay later space but it's really not enough and then we have survey data and that's where you see lending tree and Axios and others asking consumers and I I think it's important to understand

Julie: 你只是得到了消费者认为他们拥有的东西,这确实限制了我们了解你是否正在使用分期付款、是否支付利息以及所有这些事情的能力。

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that there you're just kind of getting what the consumer thinks they have and it's it really inhibits our ability to get at are you using paying for are you paying interest and all those things.

Tracy: 先买后付(BNPL)如何融入像FICO(Fair Isaac Corporation: 美国最常用的信用评分模型)这样的私人信用评分体系?因为我想,如果你向银行申请贷款,他们会查看你的FICO评分,如果你想要抵押贷款的话。尽管先买后付(BNPL)目前主要用于小额商品,所以你可能通过Affirm欠了几百美元,通过Klarna可能欠了几千美元,对吧?我想如果你是使用FICO评分的银行,你会想知道这些信息。

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How does buy now pay later fit into private credit scores like FICO, right? Because I imagine, you know, if you're applying to a bank, they're going to look at your FICO score if you want something like a mortgage. And even though buy now pay later seems to be for mostly smaller items at the moment. So maybe you owe like a couple hundred or something via a firm, maybe you also owe a few thousand via CLA, right? And I imagine if you're a bank using FICO scores, you would want to know that information.

Julie: 是的。所以,我们现在不知道这些信息。FICO最近宣布,他们计划开始将先买后付(BNPL)作为其评分模型的一部分。我们看到这些公司对此表现出极大的抵制。所以,Klarna和其他公司表示,在从FICO获得关于数据将如何使用的某些保证之前,他们不会交出数据。所以我们现在拥有的是一些时间点上的快照,以了解人们如何将先买后付(BNPL)叠加在信用卡债务和其他产品之上。我们现有的研究(虽然有些有限)确实表明人们正在叠加使用这些产品。它告诉我们,大约60%使用先买后付(BNPL)的人拥有次级信用评分(subprime credit score: 指信用记录较差,风险较高的借款人的信用评分)。它告诉我们,他们大多是在信用卡债务之上使用它。它还表明,在人们使用先买后付(BNPL)之前,他们的信用卡使用量略有增加。所以这表明,这真的就像你已经用尽了一种债务形式,然后又承担了另一种债务。

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Yeah. So, we don't know this information right now. FICO announced recently that they plan to start using buy now pay later as part of their scoring model. And we've seen the companies be extraordinarily resistant to that. So, CLA and others are saying that they're not going to turn over data until they get certain asurances from FICO about how how that data is going to be used. So the what we have right now is kind of snapshots in time to understand how people are stacking you know buy now pay later on top of credit card debt and on top of other products and the research that we have there which is somewhat limited does suggest that people are stacking this you know it tells us that about 60% of the people who are using buy now pay later have a subprime credit score it tells us that they are mostly using it on top of credit card debt and it's also suggesting that before people take on buy now pay later. There's a slight uptick in their use of their credit card. So, there's a suggestion that it's really like you're maxing out one form of debt and then taking on another.

Joe: 我刚刚查了一下纽约联邦储备银行第二季度的家庭债务报告。我想它几天前才发布。我肯定查过。是第二季度。总之,报告说未偿还的信用卡总余额为1.21万亿美元。我们有没有一个关于目前未偿还的任何形式的先买后付(BNPL)贷款数量的估计,以便我们可以将其与信用卡进行比较?

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I just looked up the Q2 New York Fed household debt report. I think it just came out a few days ago. I must have. It's Q2. Anyway, it says there's 1.21 trillion in total credit card balances outstanding. Do we have something that we have a guess for what is the number of BNPL loans of any form currently outstanding so that we can benchmark that against credit cards?

Julie: 我们有公司报告的数字。我们没有政府来源报告的数据。

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We have numbers that are reported by the companies. We don't have data that is reported by a government source like that.

Joe: 我认为我们最好的数据是交易量约为1160亿美元。好的。这比2020年的约138亿美元有所增加。所以这增长得相当快。

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I think the the best we have is that the transaction volume is around 116 billion. Okay. And that's up from about 13.8 billion in 2020. So this is is growing pretty rapidly.

Tracy: 所以它不是零。我的意思是,它显然仍然只是信用卡的一小部分,但这已经超出了四舍五入的误差范围。

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So it's not it's a nonzero. I mean it's not like clearly like still like a fraction of credit cards but this is beyond a rounding error.

Joe: 没错。

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That's right.

Tracy: 好的。

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Okay.

BNPL用途的转变:从奢侈品到必需品

Tracy: 我们对使用模式的变化有什么了解吗?例如,在疫情期间,我们是否看到先买后付(BNPL)的使用量增加,因为人们在挣扎,没有工作或面临短期现金流问题?此后是否有所下降?

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Do we have any sense of how usage patterns have changed? So for instance, you know, during the pandemic, did we see an uptick in buy now pay later use as people were struggling because they didn't have jobs or had short-term cash flow issues? Has it come down since then?

Julie: 我们看到人们对先买后付(BNPL)的使用量有所增加,并且我们看到他们购买的商品模式正在发生变化。所以我之前说过,有一种假设认为人们用它来购买衣物或其他奢侈品,但你知道,早在2022年,当消费者金融保护局(CFPB)发布第一份报告时,我们就发现那不是真的。人们用先买后付(BNPL)来购买杂货和教育费用。最近发布的调查显示,这种情况正在增长。所以我想Axios和LendingTree都做了一项调查。他们显示,大约14%到25%的先买后付(BNPL)用户用它来购买杂货。他们还显示,使用先买后付(BNPL)支付医疗和牙科费用的人数比例高于人们可能刻板印象中认为的用途,比如外出就餐、点外卖,甚至购买音乐会门票之类的东西。

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We are seeing an uptick in people's use of buy now pay later and we're seeing shifting patterns of what they're using it to purchase. So I think I said earlier that there was this assumption that people were using this to purchase clothing or other kind of luxury goods and you know even back in 2022 when the CFPB put out its first report here we saw that that wasn't true. People were using buy now pay later for things like groceries and education costs the surveys that have come out recently showed that that's growing. So there was I think an Axio survey and a lending tree survey. They showed somewhere between 14 and 25% of buy now payer users are using it to purchase groceries. They're showing that a bigger percentage of people are using bopelator for medical and dental costs than for the things people might assume stereotypically it's used for like dining out or ordering in or even like purchasing concert tickets, things like that.

Joe: 这很糟糕吗?我的意思是,你知道,这似乎是,哦,人们正在使用先买后付(BNPL)来支付牙科费用,或者他们用它来购买杂货等等。而且你知道,人们显然感到压力重重,不得不分散支付或借钱来购买这些必需品,这显然,我想对此存在一种固有的焦虑,因为这些是人类的基本必需品。但这本身真的很糟糕吗?或者它只是另一种工具,人们可以用它来平滑消费等等。

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Is it bad? I mean, like, you know, it seems like, oh, people are using buy now pay later for dental or they're using it for groceries or whatever. And like you know the idea that people are obviously stressed and have to spread out or borrow money to make those purchases is obviously I guess there is an inherent angst about that because these are human essentials. But is it really per se bad or is it just like no this is like yet another tool that people have to sort of you know smooth consumption and so forth.

BNPL与“无声的金融危机”

Julie: 我认为我们看到使用信贷产品来支付必需品的情况增加是件坏事。这并不是说先买后付(BNPL)是罪魁祸首。但是,你知道,这就是我一直对整体消费信贷感兴趣的部分原因,那就是我们看到政策领域发生了这些更广泛的变化。特别是最近,我们看到Donald Trump和国会中的共和党人通过了一项削减医疗补助、削减食品援助、提高教育成本的法案。而这些在幕后等待的消费信贷产品的可用性,削弱了我们真正理解这些变化意味着什么的能力。所以,你知道,我们知道医疗补助的削减将导致人们的医疗费用更高,但我们需要关注的事实是,这将导致先买后付(BNPL)贷款的增加。这将为Synchrony等公司提供的医疗信用卡(Care Credit: 一种专门用于医疗、牙科和健康相关服务的信用卡)提供机会。所以,这与我们整体的经济状况有关。这与我所认为的美国绝大多数家庭正在经历的“无声的金融危机”有关,但它没有被追踪。你知道,我们一直在谈论先买后付(BNPL)没有被真正追踪,但家庭的整体消费信贷状况并没有以这种方式被追踪和讨论。我们看到经济学家在电视上谈论消费、消费者物价指数(CPI)和国内生产总值(GDP)。是的。而家庭们则围坐在厨房的餐桌旁谈论Klarna、Affirm、Sallie Mae和Navient。当你在消费者金融保护局(CFPB)时,你是如何从监管角度看待先买后付(BNPL)的?

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I think it's bad that we're seeing an uptick in the use of credit products to pay for essentials. That's not to say that buy now pay later is particularly the enemy there. But, you know, this is part of the reason I've been interested in consumer credit overall is that, you know, we see these broader changes go on in the policy space. In particular, recently we've seen Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress push through a bill that cuts Medicaid, cuts food assistance, you know, makes education more expensive. And the availability of consumer credit products that are kind of waiting in the wings there blunts our ability to really understand what those changes mean. So, you know, we know that the Medicaid cuts will result in people having more expensive health care, but we need to be looking at the fact that that's going to result in buy now pay later loans. It's going to be an opportunity for medical credit cards from places like Synchrony with Care Credit. And so, it's relevant to our overall economic situation. It's relevant to the kind of like what I think of as like a silent financial crisis that's happening for the vast majority of families in the United States, but it's not tracked. You know, we've been talking about buy now pay later really not being tracked, but the overall sort of like consumer credit conditions for families are really not tracked and talked about in that way. We see economists going on TV talking about consumption and CPI and GDP. Yeah. Where families are kind of sitting around the kitchen table talking about CLA and a firm and Sally May and Naviant. when you were at the CFPB, how were you thinking about buy now pay later from a sort of regulatory perspective?

监管困境与执法挑战

Julie: 是的,所以我们当时正在审视这些产品的风险,然后我们试图审视,你知道,我们一直在消费信贷产品领域普遍存在这种现象,不仅仅是针对先买后付(BNPL),但在消费者金融保护局(CFPB)那里,这确实很明显,那就是市场中出现了这些新进入者,他们的产品与传统的消费信贷产品在宣传上非常不同。这通常是营销宣传的一部分。他们会说我们不是贷款,我们不是股权,我们是完全不同的东西。它利用了消费者对使用债务的犹豫。然后还有,你知道,我们可能会超越任何监管方案的想法。所以对于先买后付(BNPL)以及其他产品,比如已赚工资提前支取(Earned Wage Access, EWA: 允许员工在发薪日之前支取已赚工资的服务)或收入分成协议(Income Share Agreements, ISA: 一种学生贷款替代方案,学生承诺在毕业后按收入比例偿还),你知道,我们当时在研究这些在法律上到底是什么。对于先买后付(BNPL)尤其如此,像Klarna或Affirm提供基本上是数字或实体卡的产品,你可以进行重复购买,并且你有一个特定的……听起来开始像信用卡了,对吧?所以,你知道,消费者金融保护局(CFPB)在这里的初步监管方法是真正地只是说,你必须遵循适用于你所提供的产品的一些基本原则。所以这确实旨在帮助人们解决一些真正的基本消费者保护问题,比如管理争议和获取准确的账单声明。消费者金融保护局(CFPB)还在做另一件事,那就是在执法和监督方面。所以真正地像我们对待任何其他金融机构一样审视这些公司,并确保它们遵守法律。我认为谈论这一点很重要,因为我们看到Trump政府撤回了拟议的法规,但我们也看到他们撤回了执法。他们明确表示将在执法中“去优先化”先买后付(BNPL)。所以我们看到这些其他的真正基本的东西正在瓦解。你知道,如果你看看消费者现在抱怨什么,他们会说:“我的Klarna或Afterpay开启了自动支付,我试图关闭它,但公司仍然继续向我收费。”这些都是关于公司是否遵守消费者金融法律的非常基本的问题,而消费者金融保护局(CFPB)却置之不理。所以你提到,在人们开始使用先买后付(BNPL)之前,他们的信用卡使用量有所增加,对吗?为什么人们会转向先买后付(BNPL)?为什么现有的信用卡系统不足以满足某些购买需求?是因为他们达到了信用额度,还是什么情况导致先买后付(BNPL)变得更有吸引力?

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Yeah, so we were looking at the risks of the products and then we were kind of trying to look, you know, we've had this phenomenon with consumer credit products across the board, not just specific to buy now pay later, but it was really evident at CFB that you have these sort of like new entrance into a market whose products are framed very differently than a traditional consumer credit product. And it's often part of the marketing pitch. It's like we're not alone. We're not equity. We're this totally different thing. And it pres on consumers hesitance to use debt. And then also, you know, this idea that we might float above any regulatory scheme. So for buy now pay later and for these other products like earned wage access or income share agreements, you know, we were looking at like what is this under the law? And with buy now pay later particularly the products like where CLA or a firm is offering basically like a digital or physical card where you can make repeated purchases where you have a certain sounds starts to sound like a credit card right and so you know CFB's initial approach on regulation here was to really just say like you've got to follow some of the fundamental basics that apply to the product that you are right and so that was really meant to help people with some of the real kind of basic consumer protections around managing disputes and getting accurate billing statements. The other thing CFPB was doing was on the enforcement and supervision side. So really taking a look at these companies the same way we do any other financial institution and making sure they're following the law. And I think it's important to talk about that piece because we've seen the Trump administration pull back on the proposed regulations, but we've also seen them pull back on enforcement. They specifically said they would depp prioritize buy now pay later in enforcement. And so there are these other real basics that we're seeing fall apart. You know, if you look at what consumers are complaining about right now, they're saying, "I had autopay on my, you know, my CLA or my Afterpay and I tried to take it off and the company continues to charge me." These are like really basic questions of whether the companies are following consumer financial laws and you know CFPP is just off the job. So you mentioned that in the research prior to someone beginning to use BNPL there's an increase in their credit card usage right why does someone flip over like why doesn't so some of these purchases what is insufficient about the existing credit card system is it that they're hitting their credit limits or what is the situation such that then BNPL becomes more attractive

Julie: 是的,我认为我们需要更深入地研究信用利用率,因为我确实认为有些人正在转向先买后付(BNPL),他们用尽了可用的信用余额,然后转向先买后付(BNPL)。但我认为还有很多人只是想应付他们的必需品,你知道,他们的杂货和孩子返校的衣服,他们通过任何感觉最方便的支付方式来做。所以先买后付(BNPL)公司在成为这种方便的支付方式上付出了真正的努力,既通过销售点,也通过他们的应用程序。所以他们正在推动用户使用应用程序,这既使得支付更方便,也向你推送不同产品的广告。所以我认为我们看到人们被吸引到那里。但你之前提到你为什么不使用先买后付(BNPL)。我认为这很重要,

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yeah I think we need to take a deeper look at credit utilization because I do think there are people who are flipping over and they're using their available credit balance and then they're shifting to buying a pay later. But I think there are a lot of other people who are just trying to juggle their essentials, you know, their groceries and their kids back to school clothes and they're doing it through whatever feels like the most convenient payment method. So the buy now pay later companies have made a real effort at being that convenient payment method, both through kind of point of sale, but also through their apps. So they're pushing their users towards an app that both makes it more convenient to make the payment but also pushes you advertisements for different products. And so I think we see people brought in there. But you mentioned earlier why you don't use buy now pay later. And I do think it's important to

Joe: 很好的问题。我们可以花半小时来谈论你的个人财务。我认为重要的是要知道,即使有很大比例的人用它来支付基本开销,先买后付(BNPL)也存在一种分化,如果你与那些密切关注此事的顾问交谈,他们会看到像你我这样的人(我正在假设你的财务状况)。

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great question. We could do a half hour on on um your personal finances. I think it's important to know that even while there's a big percentage of people using this to cover basics, there is kind of a split in buy now pay later where if you talk to consultants who who look at this really closely, they're seeing people like you or I who can I'm making an assumption about your finances.

Tracy: 我收入不错。

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I get paid well.

Joe: 好的,酷。你知道,像你我这样能够进行购买但这是一次“痛苦的购买”的人。你知道,也许是一台新电视或一些你不想预先支付的东西。所以也有人以这种方式使用它。很有趣。

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Okay, cool. You know about like you or I who can make a purchase but it's a painful purchase. You know, maybe it's like a new television or something that you just don't want to pay upfront. So there there are people using it in that way too. Interesting.

零售商的吸引力与数据利用

Tracy: 你提到了使用便捷性,我认为这非常关键。与零售商的对话是怎样的?比如说,先买后付(BNPL)平台会向沃尔玛或任何其他商家提出什么样的建议,以便直接接入他们的网站?

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You mentioned ease of use and I think this is really key. What are the conversations like with retailers? So like what's the pitch that buy now pay later platforms are going to make to I don't know a Walmart or whoever to kind of plug directly into their websites.

Julie: 是的。所以他们的主要卖点是篮子大小和整体交易量。对。所以他们展示了他们能让零售商的篮子大小增加约10%。也就是人们购买的商品数量。然后一些公司报告称实际交易量增加了高达80%。所以这对零售商来说是相当可观的,我认为这正是推动零售商与Klarna或Afterpay达成交易并支付费用的原因,这些费用高于信用卡的交换费(Interchange: 信用卡交易中发卡银行向收单银行收取的费用)。所以在很多情况下,你知道,我们看到的成本大约是交易额的1%到8%,再加上每笔交易可能30美分的固定费用。所以这相当可观。我认为另一个卖点是,这也是在消费者金融保护局(CFPB)非常吸引我们注意力的一点,那就是利用人们的数据来推动这些购买的能力。所以,我认为如果你是一个商家,看到那些高额费用,如果你是沃尔玛或亚马逊或任何其他公司,你不仅仅是说:“让我把这个交给Klarna或Affirm,希望人们更多地使用它,而是让我利用我手头的数据来尝试推动更多的购买。”而且,一家拥有大量关于我喜欢购买什么的信息,以及大量关于我有多少钱可以购买的信息的公司,拥有一套非常强大的数据来帮助推动这些购买。所以我认为这也是对商家有吸引力的一部分。

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Yeah. So the pitch is basically basket sizes and then overall transaction volume. Right. So they're showing that they're getting the retailers about 10% more in terms of the basket size. So the amount of things that people are purchasing and then some of the companies are reporting up to 80% more in terms of the actual transaction. So that's pretty significant for retailers and I think it is what is propelling retailers to cut deals with CLA or Afterpay and to pay the costs which are higher than Interchange on a credit card. So in many cases, you know, we're looking at costs that are somewhere between 1 to 8% of the transaction plus like a flat fee that might be like 30 cents per per transaction. So it's pretty significant. I think the other part of the pitch is, and this is this is one of the pieces that was really kind of consuming a lot of our attention at CFB is the ability to use people's data to drive those purchases. So, I think if you're a merchant looking at those big fees if you're a Walmart or Amazon or whoever, you're not just saying like, "Let me put this in CLA or a firm's hands to hope that people use it more, but let me use the data I have on hand to try to drive more purchases." And like, a company that has a lot of information about what I like to buy and a lot of information about how much money I have to do it has like a pretty potent set of data to help drive those purchases. So I think that's part of the appeal for merchants as well.

Joe: 我们有没有办法从消费者的角度来衡量一种形式上的利率,他们支付的利率?因为正如你所描述的,在某些情况下它们是明确的,对吧?在某些情况下它们更隐蔽,因为前四个月是免费的,但之后会有罚款。在某些情况下,它看起来像信用卡,但结构上可能存在从A点到B点的不同方式。我们能否衡量,比如,如果这是信用卡支付,利率为15%,那么苹果对苹果的比较是,你支付的是18%还是12%?我们能做到吗?我个人做不到。但是,你知道,在消费者金融保护局(CFPB),我们确实对某些产品做到了这一点。我们没有对先买后付(BNPL)这样做,因为在很多情况下,我们研究的产品几乎没有成本,对吧?它们是无息无费的。也许它们会有可能触发的滞纳金。但请记住,由于它们要求自动支付(大多数公司都是如此),这些滞纳金不太可能产生。当然。但我认为,相关的事情是了解人们为他们所需的商品和服务总共支付了多少额外的费用和利息。这非常困难,因为这些公司正在叠加这些不同的产品。所以你有一张设定了利率的信用卡,但你可能在多个先买后付(BNPL)提供商的多种不同产品上产生债务,每种产品都有不同的条款和不同的成本。所以,这真的很难。我的意思是,从研究的角度来看,我们很难理解。我认为对于消费者来说,做出这些选择和权衡更加困难。

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Do we have a way of essentially measuring from the consumer's perspective a sort of like for-l like interest rate that they payment? Because as you described like in some cases they're clear, right? In some cases they're more embedded because it's free for four months but then there's like a penalty. In some instances it's this thing that looks like a credit card but maybe structurally there's a different way of getting from point A to point B. Like can we measure like okay if this were a credit card payment with a 15% rate this is the apples to apples compare you're paying 18% or 12% like are we able to are you able to do that? Me personally, I'm not I'm not able to do that. But, you know, at the CFPB, we did do that on certain products. We didn't do that for buy now pay later in many cases because the products we were studying had almost no cost, right? They were no interest and no fee. Maybe they had a late fee that might kick in. But remember, where they're requiring auto payments, which most of the companies are, those late fees are less likely to be incurred. Sure. But I think the the sort of relevant thing is to understand how much people are paying overall in excess fees and interest for the goods and services that they need. And that's incredibly difficult to do because these companies are sort of layering these different products. So you have a credit card with a set interest rate, but you might be incurring debt on a number of different products across multiple BNPL providers that each have different terms and and different costs. So, it's really difficult. I mean, it's difficult for us to understand from a research perspective. It's even more difficult for a consumer, I think, to make those choices and those trade-offs.

数据透明度与FICO信用评分的争议

Joe: 回到数据的方面,你提到一些平台不愿向FICO报告,并要求获得某些保证。他们到底想要什么?

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Just going back to the data aspect of this for a second. You said that some of the platforms are reluctant to uh report to FICO and are asking for certain asurances. What exactly do they want here?

Julie: 我的意思是,我研究过这个问题。我认为他们并没有非常明确地说明他们想要什么。他们只是发表了一些笼统的声明,说他们希望确保报告这些数据不会对人们产生负面影响。我的意思是,这真的只是我的猜测,但我认为这真正有趣的地方在于,这些公司正在利用对信用报告和FICO整体的这种更广泛的怀疑。因为我认为,你知道,人们的经验,当然也是我们在消费者金融保护局(CFPB)研究中看到的,是信用报告主要被用来“打击”人们,并强迫他们进行他们可能不想进行的支付。所以医疗债务就是一个很好的例子。消费者金融保护局(CFPB)的研究表明,它对于信用报告的基本目的(即评估人们的还款能力)几乎没有价值,而主要被用于胁迫。所以当Klarna说,你知道,我们想确保这不会被用来“打击”人们时,这听起来很高尚,但我认为归根结底,我们应该对他们为什么不想报告持怀疑态度。

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I mean, I've looked into this question. They haven't been super clear, I think, about what they want. They've sort of made some general statements that they want to make sure that, you know, reporting this data won't be used negatively to affect people. I mean this is really just my speculation but what I think is really interesting about this is the companies are playing on this kind of broader skepticism about credit reporting and FICO overall because I think you know people's experience and certainly what we saw in the research at CFB is that you know credit reporting has predominantly been used to ding people and to coers them into making payments they might not want to make. So like medical debt is a great example of that. CFPB's research showed it really had no value for the fundamental purpose of credit reporting which is evaluating people's ability to repay um and it was mostly being used to coers. So when CLA says you know we want to make sure this isn't used to ding people that feels very noble but I I think at the end of the day we should be kind of skeptical of why they don't want to report.

Joe: 请进一步解释医疗债务,以及你所说的它没有价值,但同时又被使用的情况。医疗债务和FICO的条件是什么?

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explain this further about medical debt and when you say it has no value but also it's being used of course what are the conditions with medical debt and FICO.

Julie: 是的。所以我们在消费者金融保护局(CFPB)非常密切地研究了医疗债务和信用报告,我们发现它没有预测价值。所以医疗债务并不能预测你是否会偿还其他类型的债务。部分原因是,信用报告上报告的许多医疗债务以某种方式是不准确的。你知道,可能是债务催收人向你追讨的债务比你认为你应该支付的要多,因为你认为你的保险公司应该已经支付了。也可能是你实际上已经支付了债务,但这些信息还没有传达给债务催收人。所以,这真的就是一些垃圾数据,堆积在人们的信用报告上。

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Yeah. So we looked at medical debt and credit reporting really closely at CFPB and what we saw was that it didn't have predictive value. So medical debt was not predictive of whether you would repay other types of debt. And part of the reason is that a lot of medical debt that is reported on people's credit reports is inaccurate in one way or another. You know, it might be that the debt collector is going after you for a debt that is larger than what you think you pay because you think your insurance company ought to have paid. It might be that you actually already paid the debt and that information hasn't gotten to the debt collector. So, it's really kind of this junk data that's sitting on people's credit reports. And

Joe: 然后解释一下胁迫的因素。它是如何运作的?所以医疗债务并不能很好地预测一个人未来偿还贷款的能力,

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and then explain the coercion element like how does it So medical debt isn't a good predictor of someone's ability to pay a future loan,

Julie: 对吗?

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right?

Joe: 所以它在这方面不好。然而,它仍然让人们感到额外的压力去偿还,因为它会影响他们的信用卡评分。请解释一下对最终患者的影响。

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So it's not great for that. And yet what it's still like people because it affects their credit card scores feel this extra pressure to pay it off. Like explain the sort of like the effect on the end the end patient in this case.

Julie: 是的,完全正确。所以希望将医疗债务纳入你的信用报告的群体主要是第三方债务催收人。他们为什么希望它在那里?他们希望它在那里,这样他们就可以打电话给你说:

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Yeah, exactly. So the constituency that wants medical debt on your credit reports is primarily third party debt collectors. And why do they want that there? they want it there so that they can call you and say,

Julie: “你知道,支付这笔债务,否则它会损害你的信用。”我认为在消费者金融保护局(CFPB),我们试图花大量时间从消费者的角度思考这个问题,以及那种感受是怎样的。

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you know, pay this debt or it's going to hurt your credit. And I think at CFPB, we tried to spend a lot of time thinking this through from the consumer perspective and what that feels like.

Joe: 所以,实际上,我对此一点都不熟悉,但更进一步来说,这就像我以前从未真正考虑过FICO评分背后关于什么应该或不应该被纳入的幕后斗争,但这显然非常直观。这在各种正式债务产品或准债务产品中是否普遍存在,它们都在争夺是纳入还是排除在计算范围之外?

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So, actually, I was not familiar with it all, but just to go further, is this like I I hadn't really thought about the sort of behindthe-scenes fight of what does and doesn't go into a FICO, but obviously that's very intuitive. Is this like a common thing across a range of either formal debt products or quas debt products where they're all like sort of jocking either to be in or out of the calculation basket?

Julie: 我的意思是,我认为医疗债务之所以成为一件事,是因为消费者金融保护局(CFPB)使其成为一件事。我认为我们没有足够的研究来了解你的信用报告上有什么或没有什么,以及为什么。但当监管机构开始挑起这些斗争时,是的,你就会开始出现这种争夺,争夺什么应该出现在上面。我认为学生债务是另一个很好的例子,那里存在关于什么应该和不应该出现在上面的合理问题。其中一些是关于预测价值的,但很多是关于将我们知道不准确的债务放在人们的信用报告上。

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I mean, I think it is the medical debt is a thing because CFPB made it a thing. I don't think we have enough research on what is or isn't on your credit report and why. But when regulators start to to pick those fights, Yeah. you start to get this jockeying for for what's on there. I think student debt is another good example where there are legitimate questions of what ought to and not not be on there. And some of it is about the predictive value, but a lot of it is about putting debt on people's credit reports that we know is inaccurate. It is true that every few years we see like these efforts from private companies, I guess, to try to augment credit scores with new technology. So, I remember very clearly being at a startup's offices in San Francisco in like I guess it would have been 2015 or something and they were walking me through the data that they could use to make short-term loans. And one of the things they were talking about was like just the basic cursor movement on the screen. Like how fast you click the button to get money. Whether or not you know if it's a sliding bar that goes from like $1,000 to $10,000. Like whether or not you hesitate to go to 10,000 and then go back and then go back to 10,000 again. It seemed very dystopian to me. And I'm curious what those efforts are like right now given the new emphasis on AI and maybe you know even more data that is now available to private companies to look at to try to judge whether people are creditworthy or not.

AI在信用评分中的应用与潜在风险

Julie: 是的。如果你听那些首席执行官与投资者谈论各种不同产品的承保模型的财报电话会议,无论是传统的信用卡还是像先买后付(BNPL)这样的产品,人工智能都会被频繁提及。你知道,每个人都想说他们拥有这种专有的人工智能模型。

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Yeah. If you listen to the earnings calls where CEOs are talking to investors about their underwriting models for a variety of different products whether it's kind of traditional credit cards or things like BNPL AI comes up a lot. you know, everybody sort of wants to say that they've got this proprietary AI model.

Joe: 完全正确。是的。他们十年前也说过同样的话。

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That's exactly it. Yeah. They're they were saying the same thing 10 years ago.

Julie: 是的。是的。我认为那里有很多东西需要剖析和关注。所以,我认为我们应该,你知道,我们知道人工智能模型通常会融入种族偏见。所以我们知道这些模型存在一些担忧,你知道,但我也认为,就像你所说的,我们正在将大量无关的数据拖入我们评估人们信用价值的方式中。其中一些应该是相关的,但有些真的不应该。我认为最重要的是要思考,这些模型是完全不透明的。而且公司在面临监管审查时,通常会说“是人工智能做的”,对吧?就好像公司里的人对技术的结果不负责任一样。所以,你知道,在Biden政府时期,那里的做法一直是说,你要负责。这听起来很基本,但法律就是法律。无论是关于消费者保护还是关于,你知道,信贷申请人之间的基本歧视,法律就是法律,你对这些模型的结果负责。我认为这种转变或者说这种方法在这里非常非常重要,以推动问责制,否则它确实会失控。

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Yeah. Yeah. And I think there's a lot of things to unpack there and to be concerned about. So, I think we should, you know, we know that AI models often bake in racial biases. So we know that there's some concern there about these models, you know, but I also think to your point there, we're dragging in a lot of extraneous data about people into the way we look at their creditworthiness. Some of which should be relevant, some of which really should not. And what I think is most important to think about there is that those models are completely opaque. And companies often when they're faced with regulatory scrutiny say kind of like the AI did it, right? as though the the people at the companies are not responsible for the outcomes of the technology. So, you know, under the Biden administration, the approach there had really been to say, you're responsible. This, it sounds so basic, but the laws are the laws. Whether it's about consumer protection or about, you know, basic discrimination among credit applicants, the laws are the laws and you're responsible for the outcomes of those models. And I think that shift is or that kind of approach is really really important here to drive some accountability because otherwise it does kind of get out of hand.

BNPL的总体影响:是好是坏?

Joe: 我在介绍中提到,当思考先买后付(BNPL)时,我想到的是私人信贷的平行现象。所以这种想法是,你知道,这是一个更不透明的市场,人们担心它的规模,担心透明度和隐藏的杠杆等等。但另一方面,你知道,它是一个额外的信贷水龙头,公司可以在紧急时期利用它,我们过去五年左右确实看到了这一点。总的来说,当你审视先买后付(BNPL)时,你会说它的影响是好的多还是坏的多?这是一个难题。

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So I mentioned in the intro that the parallel that I reach for when thinking about buy now pay later is sort of private credit. So this idea that you know it's a more opaque market and people are worried about its size and they're worried about transparency and hidden leverage and all of that. But on the other hand, you know, it is an extra credit spigot that companies can tap in times of emergency and we certainly saw that over the past 5 years or so. Net net, when you look at buy now pay later, would you say the effects are good, more good or more bad? This is a tough one.

Julie: 这确实是一个非常棘手的问题,因为我不想——我之前说过——我不想把先买后付(BNPL)单独挑出来作为这里的坏人。我认为首先有很多坏人。也有很多好人。但是,你知道,我认为真正需要关注的是,我们正处于Trump政府所描述的“相对良好的经济”中,而我们却坐在这里谈论开启这些新型有趣的债务水龙头,以帮助人们应对非常基本的开支。

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It is a really tough one because I don't I said this earlier. I I don't want to single out buy now pay later as the bad guy here. I think first of all there are a lot of bad guys. There are a lot of good guys too. But, you know, I think the thing to really focus on is like we're in what the Trump administration is describing as like a relatively good economy and we're sitting here talking about like turning on the spigot for these kind of like new and interesting types of debt to help people handle really basic expenses.

Julie: 这似乎是个问题。我们不应该处于紧急状态,但我们却处于紧急状态。所以我担心这些信贷产品的可用性正在掩盖人们生活成本日益增长的紧急情况,这在新闻中通常是关于他们的杂货价格、鸡蛋、返校运动鞋,这些都很重要,但它也包括他们的医疗保健、大学费用、能否退休。所以家庭们感到非常受挤压,你知道,对我来说,最重要的事情是,我们正在看到Trump政府正在测试这种理论,即他们可以保持经济是否正常运行或增长的高层指标稳定,同时让大约60%的人经历这些私人金融危机。我们将在未来几年看到这种情况的演变。所以这就是我思考这些信贷产品的方式。它不是关于单个产品是好是坏,而是关于我们是否整体知道我们在做什么,以及是否有人在进行计算?

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That seems like a problem. We should not be in an emergency situation and yet we are. And so I'm concerned that that availability of these credit products is obscuring like the kind of growing emergency around people's cost of living which often you know in the news is about their grocery prices, the eggs, their sneakers for back to school and those are really important but it's also their health care, the cost of college, being able to retire. So families are feeling really squeezed and you know to me the most important thing there is like we're I think we're seeing the Trump administration sort of test out this theory that they can keep the highlevel metrics of whether the economy is on track steady or growing while letting somewhere around 60% of people have these private financial crises. We're going to see that play out over the next couple of years. And so that's that's the way I think about these credit products. It's not really like is the individual one good, but it's like do we know what we're doing overall and is anyone doing the math?

Joe: 好的,Julie Morgan,非常感谢你来到《Odd Lots》。我们非常感谢。

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All right, Julie Morgan, thank you so much for coming on ALA. It's really appreciated.

Julie: 谢谢。谢谢邀请我。

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Thank you. Thanks for having me.

播客总结与展望

Joe: Joe,我很高兴我们终于做了这期节目。我们谈论先买后付(BNPL)已经有一段时间了。先买后付(BNPL)总是让我想起它听起来像是法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)的意大利子公司之类的,但有很多东西值得探讨。我的意思是,第一,

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Joe, I'm glad we finally did that episode. We've been talking about doing one on BNPL for a while. BNPL it always reminds me of like it sounds like BMP Paraba's like Italian subsidiary or something, but there are a bunch of things to pick out there. I mean, number one,

Tracy: 这显然是一个微妙的问题,对吧?而且显然,正如你在介绍中阐述的,它可能具有平滑消费的作用。

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it's clearly a nuanced issue, right? And like clearly, as you laid out in the intro, it can have a smoothing effect.

Joe: 是的。

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Yeah.

Tracy: 第二个总是出现的问题是,嗯,

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The second thing that always seems to come up is this idea that like well

Tracy: 它现在没那么大,对吧?它现在还不足以产生影响。

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it's not that big now, right? like it's not big enough to have an effect right now.

Joe: 但正如Julie提到的,我们看到交易量正在缓慢回升,我想

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But as Julie mentioned, we are seeing, you know, volumes slowly pick up and I guess

Tracy: 没那么慢。

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not that slowly.

Joe: 没那么慢。是的,你说得对。我想我有点好奇,当越来越多的这种活动实际上延伸到服务而不是商品时,会发生什么。这似乎是一个相当大的转变。嗯,我想说,我认为Julie的最后一点非常相关,那就是,你知道,当我们考虑家庭借贷时,再次,可能你和我,因为我们是金融危机的“孩子”或者说是在金融危机期间长大的,你知道,我们有点会想到

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Not that slow. Yeah, you're right. And I guess like I kind of wonder what happens like as more and more of this activity actually stretches into services versus goods. Like that seems to be quite a big shift. Well, I'd say like I I think uh Julie's last point was very relevant, which is like, you know, when we think about household borrowing and again probably you and I because we're sort of children of uh or you know, grew up during the financial crisis, you know, we sort of think about like

Tracy: 我们不是孩子。

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we weren't children.

Joe: 不,我们是孩子,但你明白我的意思吧?你知道,我认为你我经常从违约等影响来思考信贷。这可能是一种影响,不容忽视。但另一个想法是,有多少像整体经济状况、消费这样的东西是由债务融资的,而且是以一种我们无法完全衡量的方式,对吧?因为我们可以轻松地衡量信用卡债务,所以我们对信用卡债务的规模(例如占收入的比例)有一些了解。但如果存在这种快速增长的、对维持消费或GDP等总体数据至关重要的其他来源,你知道,我的结论或者说我的感觉是,是的,它现在还不是那么庞大,但它绝对不是微不足道,它绝对不是,你知道,它比四舍五入的误差要大。

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No, we were children, but you know what I'm saying? You know, I think you and I often think about credit from the effects of defaults and so forth. And that could be an effect and that's not something to be dismissed. But the other idea is like how much of like sort of like aggregate economic conditions consumption is sort of debt financed and in a way that we can't like fully measure, right? Because we comfortably can measure credit card debt and so we have some sense of credit card debt is the size of incomes or whatever. But if there's this other rapidly growing source and it's pretty crucial for like sort of keeping the headline figures of consumption or GDP, you know, like my conclusion or like my sense is like yeah, it's not that huge yet, but it's definitely not nothing and it's definitely not, you know, it's bigger than a rounding error,

Tracy: 对吧?而且它肯定说明了一些问题,正如Julie所说,关于普通美国消费者的状况,他们可能正在努力支付牙科费用之类的东西。

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right? And it certainly says something to Julia's point about like the state of the average American consumer who probably is struggling to pay something like dental fees.

Joe: 是的。是的。不。而且,你知道,我认为有趣的是,也许我们俩,或者至少我,对先买后付(BNPL)的看法可能已经过时了。哦,是的,因为那种想法是,哦,我要买一台1000美元的电视,然后分四期支付,每期250美元。那听起来很棒。我应该这样做。但如果那只是一种商业模式,而现在有一种不断增长的商业模式,它更像分期贷款,有正式的利率,但它看起来也像同样的东西,你也会得到一张卡等等,但它只是结构上略有不同,而且在形式上它不被称为债务,或者不被归类为债务,或者不作为债务报告,那么我认为我们显然需要继续更好地了解,你知道,这到底有多大。

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Yeah. Yeah. No. And like the fact and like um you know I think there's I thought it was interesting too that like maybe both of us or at least just me had a certain maybe already outdated view of what BNPL is. Oh yeah because like the idea of like oh I'm going to buy a television that's $1,000 and make it like four $250 purchases. Like that sounds great. I should I should be doing this. But if that's just sort of like one business model, but that there's like this growing business model that looks more like installment loans where there is a formal interest rate, but it also sort of looks like the same thing and you also get a card, etc., but it's just like a slightly different structure and formally it isn't called debt or isn't categorized or isn't reported as debt, then I then I think obviously we need to continue to get a better handle on, you know, how big this is.

Tracy: 是的,绝对。另外,Klarna现在说它是一家银行,这有点令人困惑。是的。嗯,

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Yeah, absolutely. Also, Clara says it's a bank now, which is kind of confusing. Yeah. Um,

Joe: 每个人,

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everyone,

Tracy: 这就像最热门的东西,每个人都想要。大家现在总是申请银行牌照。

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it's like the hottest thing everyone wants. Everyone's always filing for bank charters these days.

Joe: 哦,是的。那会很有趣,因为金融危机之后。说到2008年,我们经历了漫长的岁月,就像每个随机的经纪公司或金融科技公司。哦,我们拿到了银行牌照。我们收购了一家拥有银行牌照的公司。

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Oh, yeah. That would be interesting to look at because we went after the financial crisis. Speaking of 2008, we went years and years and years a like every random brokerage or fintech. Oh, we got a bank charter. We acquired a company that has a bank charter.

Tracy: 时间是一个扁平的循环,Joe。是的。

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Time is a flat circle, Joe. Yeah.

Joe: 好了。我们就在这里结束吗?

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All right. Shall we leave it there?

Tracy: 就在这里结束吧。

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Let's leave it there.

Joe: 这又是《Odd Lots》播客的一集。我是Tracy Alloway。你可以在@TracyAlloway关注我。

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This has been another episode of the OddLotss podcast. I'm Tracy Aloway. You can follow me at Tracy Aloway.

Joe: 我是Joe Weisenthal。你可以在@thestalwart关注我。关注我们的嘉宾Julie Morgan。她是@JMargeta。关注我们的制作人Carmen Rodriguez,@CarmenArman。Dashel Bennett,@Dashbot。以及Kale Brooks,@Kalebrooks。获取更多《Odd Lots》内容,请访问bloomberg.com/odlots,那里有我们的每日新闻通讯和所有剧集。你可以在我们的Discord频道discord.gg/odlotss中24/7讨论所有这些话题。如果你喜欢《Odd Lots》,如果你喜欢我们谈论消费债务状况的节目,那么请在你最喜欢的播客平台上给我们留下好评。请记住,如果你是Bloomberg的订阅者,你可以完全免费收听我们所有的剧集。你只需在Apple Podcast上找到Bloomberg频道并按照说明操作即可。感谢收听。

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And I'm Joe Weisenthal. can follow me at the stalwart. Follow our guest Julie Morgan. She's J Marggeta. Follow our producers Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Arman. Dashel Bennett at Dashbot and Kale Brooks at Kalebrooks. For more OddLots content, go to bloomberg.com/odlots where we have a daily newsletter and all of our episodes. And you can chat about all of these topics 24/7 in our Discord, discord.gg/odlotss. And if you enjoy OddLotss, if you like it when we talk about the state of consumer debt, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely adree. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcast and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.

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