摩根大通与高盛的财报概览

What do we need to know about the numbers in JPMorgan's business? Because, as Matt says, sometimes the headlines look darn good and the quarter was darn good. 关于摩根大通的业绩数据，我们需要了解什么？因为正如马特所说，有时新闻头条看起来非常不错，而且这个季度也确实非常好。

It's just that I think there are some bullish investors out there that wanted more. 只是我认为，有些看涨的投资者对此抱有更高的期望。

And if you did, on today they're underperforming. 如果你的期望更高，那么今天摩根大通的表现低于预期。

But if you look at year to date, if you look at their valuation, if you look at their returns, if you look at their profitability, they are very, very good, executing well. 但如果你看年初至今的表现，看他们的估值，看他们的回报，看他们的盈利能力，他们都非常非常好，执行力也很出色。

I think that maybe some people just wanted some more there. 我认为可能有些人只是想要更多。

Goldman Sachs also had a strong quarter; they did miss on equities trading. 高盛也度过了一个强劲的季度；尽管他们在股票交易方面未能达到预期。

So, these numbers are hard to predict. 所以，这些数字很难预测。

But I think most people, including myself, if you had seen that upside, it would give you further confidence in the momentum going into the next quarter. 但我认为，大多数人，包括我自己，如果看到那种上行表现，都会对进入下一季度的势头更有信心。

But the M&A advisory business (Mergers & Acquisitions advisory business: 指为企业兼并、收购提供策略、估值和交易执行等服务的业务) had huge outperformance there. 然而，并购咨询业务在此方面表现非常出色。

We think they probably outperformed most on the quarter, and they're the lead in that revenue. 我们认为他们可能在这一季度的大部分时间里都表现出色，并且他们在该项收入中处于领先地位。

They announced this AI program (Artificial Intelligence program: 指利用人工智能技术改进效率和服务的计划). 他们宣布了这项AI项目。

There's details, you're going to have to wait until January for details, but that signals that efficiency is going to get better. 具体细节要等到一月份才能公布，但这预示着效率将会提高。

分析师为何常低估银行表现

Contrast that to companies that are really performing very well, to companies that I think have a lot of runway ahead of them, and that's Wells Fargo and Citigroup. 将此与那些表现非常好的公司，以及那些我认为未来有很大发展空间的富国银行和花旗集团进行对比。

Can I just ask, why do the analysts consistently underestimate what these banks are doing? And it can't just be to get on the good side of management, right? 我能问一下吗，为什么分析师总是低估这些银行的业绩？这不可能是仅仅为了讨好管理层，对吧？

When I see this morning, before any earnings came out, I saw stories about which bank was going to beat estimates. 今天早上，在任何财报公布之前，我看到了一些关于哪些银行将超出预期的报道。

So when I see "bank expected to top estimates," I wonder why analysts don't add more to the estimates. 所以当我看到“银行有望超出预期”时，我就会想，为什么分析师不把预期调高一些呢？

What's why? What is this game all about? 为什么？这到底是怎么回事？

Well, first of all, trading and when it's capital markets revenue, that really is the source of the upside. 嗯，首先，交易业务以及资本市场收入确实是带来上行空间的原因。

That is very tough, and banks are not going to guide you. 这非常困难，而且银行不会给你指引。

You know, they don't really have an incentive to shake your hand, guys, by the way, like the last couple of days of the quarter could be horrible, or you don't know what's going to happen. 你知道，他们真的没有动力去和你握手，伙计们，顺便说一句，比如季度最后几天可能会很糟糕，或者你不知道会发生什么。

And so I think banks are going to tend to guide conservatively. 所以我认为银行会倾向于保守地给出指引。

Analysts are going to tend to be conservative. 分析师也倾向于保守。

Right. Because that, and by the way, that just is not something that people bake into the run rate. 没错。因为这，顺便说一句，这并不是人们会纳入到常规运行率中的东西。

So, as I said, we're positive about the momentum in trading, the asset levels, etc. 所以，正如我所说，我们对交易势头、资产水平等持积极态度。

But I think if you're forming estimates, you are going to tend to be conservative. 但我认为，如果你在制定预测，你就会倾向于保守。

And that's why you can get upside, especially if the strength comes at the end of the quarter. 这就是为什么你可能会看到上行空间，特别是如果强劲表现出现在季度末。

It's just hard for the instruments to catch up. 只是这些预测工具很难及时跟上。

杰米·戴蒙的“蟑螂”论与信贷担忧

Yeah, I totally get it. All right. So we care about JPMorgan's results. 是的，我完全明白了。好的。所以我们关心摩根大通的业绩。

We also obsess over everything that Jamie Dimon has to say. 我们也对杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）所说的一切都非常关注。

He never disappoints. It's something that is highly quotable. In this case, it was when he was talking about a cockroach. 他从不让人失望。他的话语非常值得引用。这次，是他谈论蟑螂的时候。

Check it out. And you should assume that if something happens, we'd scour all process, all procedures, all underwriting, all everything. 听听看。你应该假设如果发生什么事，我们会彻底审查所有流程、所有程序、所有承销、所有一切。

And, you know, we think we're okay with all this stuff. 而且，你知道，我们认为我们处理所有这些事情都还不错。

But my antenna goes up when things like that happen. 但当发生那样的事情时，我的警惕性就会提高。

I probably shouldn't say this, but when you see one cockroach, you're probably more, you know. 我可能不该这么说，但当你看到一只蟑螂时，你可能会觉得，你知道的。

And so everyone should be forewarned in this one. 所以每个人都应该对此有所警惕。

All right. That, of course, was Jamie Dimon earlier today on JPMorgan's earlier earnings call. 好的。那当然是杰米·戴蒙今天早些时候在摩根大通的财报电话会议上说的。

Actually, come on in on this because you're reporting on the quarter. 实际上，请你谈谈这个，因为你正在报道这个季度的情况。

And most importantly, what Jamie Dimon has to say about the macro. 最重要的是，杰米·戴蒙对宏观经济有什么看法。

So, again, Jamie Dimon has been running the biggest U.S. bank, which has a bigger market cap today than its three closest rivals combined. 所以，杰米·戴蒙一直在经营着美国最大的银行，这家银行今天的市值比其最接近的三个竞争对手的总和还要大。

He's been doing that for nearly 20 years, and he didn't get there, and he didn't stay there just on the back of sitting on his laurels. 他从事这项工作近20年，他能达到并保持这个地位，绝不是靠着安于现状。

He's paid to look around the corners, and he's right to point out that the underlying numbers might be great. 他受雇于此就是为了洞察潜在风险，他指出基础数据可能很棒，这是对的。

They might be marching toward another record revenue here. 它们可能正朝着另一个创纪录的收入水平迈进。

But when you see some of these problems, you initially try and dismiss some of them as idiosyncratic. 但当你看到其中一些问题时，你最初会试图将它们视为特异性的。

But if enough of them start popping up, that becomes a concern. 但如果出现足够多的此类问题，那就会成为一个担忧。

So that's why when Dimon says "my antenna goes up" when things like that happen, we pay attention. 所以，当戴蒙说当发生那样的事情时“我的警惕性就会提高”，我们就会注意。

Especially because in the last few days, we've been seeing some action in certain corners of the credit market where it does appear that there is some fear seeping into the markets. 尤其是在过去几天里，我们看到信贷市场的某些角落出现了一些动向，市场似乎确实渗透着一些恐惧情绪。

And Dimon specifically flicked at the publicly traded BDCs (Business Development Companies: 一种向中小型私营公司提供融资并投资其股权的公开交易投资公司) that hold a lot of these private credit investments. 戴蒙特别提到了那些持有大量私人信贷投资的公开交易业务发展公司。

And if you look at the discounted NAV (Net Asset Value: 指基金、投资公司或企业每股资产的实际价值，通常用于衡量其内在价值) that they're going at, it makes you worry about what's happening with some of the other non-traded vehicles. 如果你看看他们以折价资产净值交易的情况，这会让你担心其他非交易型工具的情况。

Will there be master demolitions and will there be domino effects off of that? 是否会有大规模的清盘，是否会由此产生多米诺骨牌效应？

And Dimon also points out that he feels like they're feeling very good about everything, that if you look at their numbers, you will not see any cause for stress, dismay, or concern. 戴蒙还指出，他觉得他们对一切都感觉非常好，如果看他们的数字，你不会看到任何压力、沮丧或担忧的理由。

But Dimon is right in saying eventually the cycle turns. 但戴蒙说周期最终会转变，这是对的。

And when it does, he thinks that, I suspect, when there's a downturn, his words, "you will see higher than normal downturn type of credit losses in certain categories." 当周期转变时，他认为，我怀疑，当经济下行时，用他的话说，“你会在某些类别中看到高于正常水平的衰退型信贷损失。”

That's an important one to keep in mind, because what he's saying is your recovery rates might not be as great as you imagine, and that will impact the firms and that will impact the investors in those firms. 这一点很重要，需要记住，因为他是在说你的回收率可能不像你想象的那么高，这将影响公司，也将影响这些公司的投资者。

富国银行的转型

I want to ask about Wells Fargo. I'm so thankful that Bloomberg Radio has such a great program in the mornings. 我想问一下富国银行的情况。我非常感谢彭博广播电台早上有这么好的节目。

Nathan Hager and Karen Moscow, we were talking to you, Alison, before I even got to work yet. 内森·海格和凯伦·莫斯科，艾莉森，在我还没上班的时候，我们就已经在和你谈话了。

And I get here pretty early, and you were saying this is really going to be the news of the day, and it has been the outperformer of the day. 我来得很早，你说这将是当天真正的新闻，而且它也确实是当天表现最好的。

Because, can I just say, finally. Well, because long in coming. 因为，我只想说，终于。嗯，因为它酝酿已久。

So what's the story with Wells Fargo? They raised their ROTE (Return on Tangible Equity: 衡量银行盈利能力的关键指标，计算方式为净利润除以有形普通股本). 那么富国银行有什么故事呢？他们提高了有形股本回报率。

So the key metric for banks, return on tangible common equity valuations, price to book, is how a lot of investors value these banks. 所以，银行的关键衡量指标，有形普通股本回报率估值，市净率，是很多投资者评估这些银行的方式。

It's based on that return on capital. 它是基于资本回报率。

And Charlie Scharf had said years ago, "We're going to put 15% out there as a target. We'll revisit it at some point." 查理·沙夫几年前说过：“我们将把15%作为一个目标。我们会在某个时候重新审视它。”

They're running at 15% year to date. 他们今年迄今的运行率是15%。

They upped that target to 17% to 18%. 他们将目标提高到了17%到18%。

The asset cap (指监管机构对银行资产规模设定的限制，通常用于控制风险) is lifted. 资产上限被解除了。

They showed a lot of progress that they've made, but they also showed some opportunity. 他们展示了他们已经取得的很多进展，但也展现了一些机会。

And here's what I think is interesting. 这就是我认为有趣的地方。

So one of the biggest areas of opportunity is the consumer unit. 所以，最大的机会领域之一是消费业务部门。

When we had Laurie Beer from JPMorgan, the CEO of JPMorgan, talk about where she sees big opportunity, she actually talked about this at JPMorgan's Investor Day, also the consumer unit, also a lot of what she talked about in terms of how technology was going to aid the bank was in that it was productivity in the consumer unit. 当摩根大通的首席执行官劳里·比尔（Laurie Beer）谈到她看到巨大机会的领域时，她实际上在摩根大通的投资者日上也谈到了这一点，即消费业务部门，她谈论的很多关于技术将如何帮助银行的内容，都集中在提高消费业务部门的生产力上。

So we're hearing that from Wells Fargo. 所以我们从富国银行那里听到了同样的信息。

So that really gives me confidence that this is a number that they can chew to. 所以这真的让我有信心，这是一个他们可以实现的目标。

花旗集团的转型与美国银行的未来

Citigroup, by the way, I think they're also kind of showing the path, right? 顺便说一句，我认为花旗集团也正在指明方向，对吧？

So Citigroup talking about the fact that they are two-thirds of the way there with their transformation. 花旗集团谈到他们的转型已经完成了三分之二。

And we have Banamex (墨西哥国民银行: 墨西哥最大的银行之一，曾是花旗集团在墨西哥的零售银行业务) coming. 而且墨西哥国民银行即将到来。

You know, it's pushed out a little bit. 你知道，它被推迟了一点。

But I think showing you the path that, could that be Citigroup again, talk about an even longer time. 但我认为，这预示着花旗集团可能需要更长的时间才能再次实现目标。

But could Jane Fraser finally be the one to get it done? 但简·弗雷泽（Jane Fraser）最终能否完成这项任务呢？

And I will point out, with Wells Fargo now up, what, 8.2% for the day, it's their best day since election night, since Trump came back to power. 我还要指出，富国银行今天上涨了8.2%，这是自大选之夜，即特朗普重新掌权以来表现最好的一天。

This could be Wells Fargo's best day since then. 这可能是富国银行自那时以来最好的一天。

So that is the power of putting a target out there. 这就是设定目标的力量。

And I point that out again only because in a couple of weeks, you will have Bank of America with their Investor Day, their first Investor Day in 15 years. 我再次指出这一点，仅仅是因为几周后，美国银行将举行他们的投资者日活动，这是他们15年来的第一次。

It has also been the worst performing big bank stock this year, up only what, 14%? 它也是今年表现最差的大型银行股，仅上涨了14%左右？

14% and change. 14%多一点。

It is important for Bank of America to approach that Investor Day with a mindset of providing targets, aspirational targets for the market, instead of wanting to go out there trying to explain to investors and analysts what it is that they do, because I think investors will tell you they have a good understanding. 美国银行在投资者日上，重要的是要以提供目标、为市场设定雄心勃勃的目标的心态去面对，而不是试图向投资者和分析师解释他们在做什么，因为我认为投资者会告诉你他们已经很了解了。

What they want is better targets, and what they want is them achieving those targets. 他们想要的是更好的目标，他们想要的是银行能够实现这些目标。

Otherwise, the stock will continue to languish. 否则，股价将继续低迷。