AI带来的生产力提升是否会超越个人电脑和互联网时代？

Is the productivity gains from this going to be as big or bigger than what we saw from personal computers and the internet?

这是否会带来的生产力提升会像个人电脑和互联网时代那样巨大，甚至更大？

Oh, it's far bigger. It's far far bigger. Yeah. I I I feel 98% confident.

哦，它要大得多。要大得多得多。是的。我有百分之九十八的信心。

介绍嘉宾与早期合作

Hey guys, great to see you both. Uh, Bill, maybe I don't know, you're up in Tahoe or something and we're thrilled to have one of our great friends, Michael Dell on to chop it up with us. Happy 4th of July, you guys. Most of you know Michael. Um, he's built obviously one of the most iconic technology companies. Starting in his dorm room, I don't know what, 40 years ago, Michael. I think you just had your 40th anniversary.

大家好，很高兴见到你们两位。比尔，你可能在太浩湖（Tahoe）之类的，我们非常高兴能请到我们伟大的朋友之一迈克尔·戴尔来和我们聊聊。祝你们独立日快乐。大多数人都认识迈克尔。他显然创建了最具标志性的科技公司之一。四十年前，迈克尔，在你的宿舍里起家。我想你们刚过了四十周年纪念日。

41 years ago. 41 years ago. and now a major player in AI. You know, you you spun off VMware, of course, and now you're a major owner of Broadcom and Dell remains a hundred billion dollar business. I think you own uh you know, like like Larry Ellison, you own a lot of the business, maybe half of the business, and it's one of the largest builders of AI servers on the planet.

四十一年前。四十一年前。现在，您已成为人工智能领域的重要参与者。您退出了VMware，当然，现在您是博通（Broadcom）的大股东，而戴尔仍然是一家千亿美元的企业。我想你拥有，你知道的，就像拉里·埃里森一样，你拥有公司很大一部分，可能一半，而且你是地球上最大的人工智能服务器制造商之一。

And obviously, in addition to that, you and your incredible wife Susan have an amazing foundation. You do you do great work in Texas and around the country. I saw that you just contributed to uh the disaster relief. What a tragedy in Texas. And so kudos to you both for all the good work you do on so many issues, but particularly in the state of Texas. And then, you know, of course, it was great to have you and Susan as partners on Invest America. I know we're going to talk about that today.

显然，除此之外，你和你了不起的妻子苏珊拥有一个很棒的基金会。你们在德克萨斯州和全国各地做了很多了不起的工作。我看到你们刚刚为德克萨斯州的灾难救济做出了贡献。德克萨斯州发生了多么悲剧。所以，为你们在如此多问题上所做的所有好事表示赞赏，尤其是在德克萨斯州。然后，你知道，当然，很高兴你和苏珊成为“投资美国”（Invest America）的合作伙伴。我知道我们今天会谈到这个。

And everybody should run out and read your book, Play Nice But Win. Um, I'm actually I would recommend they listen to it because Michael took what I understand to be a very painful process for an author to read their entire book, but it's Michael's voice and the inflection and the like you get nuances I don't think you would get just with the writing.

每个人都应该去读你的书《好好相处，但要赢》（Play Nice But Win）。事实上，我建议他们去听有声书，因为据我所知，作者朗读整本书是一个非常痛苦的过程，但这是迈克尔的声音和他的语调，你从中获得的细微差别，我认为只看文字是得不到的。

Well, thank you for saying that, Bill, and and uh appreciate the kind introduction, guys. Look, I mean, I think if you're going to take the time to write a book, which is a major endeavor if you really do it yourself and do it right, and I did have somebody helping me, by the way, so I'm not going to take full credit for it. I think you should take the additional time to record the audio book because you can uh display emotion, intonation, and really tell the story in your own voice. and and it's it's a powerful uh way to convey uh thoughts and emotions at the same time. And uh I love audio books. I love I love going outside and walking, hiking, and turning on a good audio book is a great way to do to do it.

比尔，谢谢你的夸奖。伙计们，感谢你们热情的介绍。你看，我想如果你要花时间写一本书——这是一项重大的事业，如果你自己真正做好它——顺便说一句，我确实有一个人帮忙，所以我不会把全部功劳都揽过来。我认为你应该花额外的时间录制有声书，因为你可以展示情感、语调，并用你自己的声音真正讲述这个故事。这是一种同时传达思想和情感的有力方式。我喜欢有声书。我喜欢在外面散步、徒步旅行时打开一本好的有声书，这是一种很好的享受方式。

Totally. Well, in in the spirit of storytelling, Michael, do you remember when you first met Gurley?

完全正确。那么，本着讲故事的精神，迈克尔，你还记得你第一次见到格利（Gurley）的情景吗？

Yeah, I do remember when I first met Gurley. Uh this was this was in the in the '9s and Bill had written this research report that was super thick. And I'm reading this report and I'm like how the bleep bleep bleep does this guy know more about our business than we do. It's like what? We must be totally screwing up here. and and uh he had uncovered a whole bunch of analysis and thoughts about our business and we were so busy uh kind of distracted by growth that we had missed a few things and Bill shined a massive light on that and it was super helpful. So I I I uh became a fan instantly of his work and I've been a fan ever since.

是的，我确实记得我第一次见到格利。那是在九十年代，比尔写了一份非常厚的研报。我读着这份报告，心想这个家伙怎么会比我们更了解我们的业务？这是怎么回事？我们肯定哪里做得一塌糊涂。他发现了很多关于我们业务的分析和想法，但我们当时忙于增长而分心，以至于错过了一些事情，而比尔照亮了这一切，这对我们非常有帮助。所以我立刻成了他的作品的粉丝，从那以后一直是他的粉丝。

Brad, that was 32 years ago. Even Even though when when I read the report, I was like, damn, uh, we we should have figured this out. This was 32 years ago. I was 28, Michael was 29, and running a public company, and I've always cherished the fact that Michael's a year older than me, so I always have time to catch up.

布拉德，那是 32 年前。即使在我读那份报告时，我也觉得，该死，我们应该早就想明白了。那是 32 年前，我 28 岁，迈克尔 29 岁，已经在经营一家上市公司了，我一直很珍惜迈克尔比我大一岁的事实，这样我总有时间追赶。

Well, it's great to great to be here with the kids.

嗯，很高兴和孩子们在一起。

90年代戴尔的成功因素与洞察

Bill, what was tell us just a second about um because the '9s I think has some some parallels to the period that we're living in now. So you know Dell was growing incredibly fast obviously building low-cost high-quality computers what inspired you to start covering Dell and then you know uh was what led you to these insights like did you just focus on that company? Was it was this a you know a breakthrough piece of work for you?

比尔，能和我们讲讲九十年代的事情吗？我想九十年代与我们现在所处的时期有一些相似之处。戴尔当时显然在飞速发展，制造低成本、高质量的电脑。是什么启发你开始关注戴尔的？然后，是什么让你产生了这些见解？你只是专注于那家公司吗？这对你来说是一项突破性的工作吗？

Well, Michael's heard this before, so I I'll hopefully won't bore bore him, but um I I had worked in the PC industry. I spent over two years at Compact in Houston. And you know, interestingly, I think being inside of Compact, we had a view of Dell that wasn't as respectful as it should have been. Um and once I got outside and was able to look at the numbers in a different way, I was able to see things more clearly.

迈克尔以前听过这个，所以我希望我不会让他感到无聊。我在 PC 行业工作过。我在休斯顿的康柏（Compact）待了两年多。有趣的是，我想在康柏内部时，我们对戴尔的看法没有应有的尊重。一旦我走出去，能够从不同的角度看待这些数字，我就能更清楚地看到事情。

But but the gentleman that that made this all click in terms for me was Michael Moeson who you know of um but he had taught me to look at return on invested capital. That's part of what Michael was referring to. The company had insane um you know balance sheet turnover um in a way that that the the cash flow relative to the earnings was really high and the ROIC was 10x anyone else in the business.

但让这一切在我心中清晰起来的先生是迈克尔·莫森（Michael Moeson），你知道的。他教我关注投资资本回报率（ROIC）。这也是迈克尔提到的。这家公司的资产负债表周转率高得惊人，其现金流相对于收益非常高，而且 ROIC 是业内任何其他公司的 10 倍。

Um and um yeah and then for some reason probably just youth I went and did a strong buy on the initiation which um Michael made a bunch of his employees rich. I I ended up making a bunch of the salespeople rich there at CSFB just as a result of of uh riding on their coattails. But it was it was quite the 90s were fun. The 90s were fun. I mean you know uh yeah stock went up 130,000%. We had seven stock splits.

然后，不知何故，可能只是因为年轻，我在发起研究时就给出了强力买入评级，这让迈克尔的许多员工都变得富有。我最终也因为搭了他们的顺风车，使我在瑞士信贷（CSFB）的许多销售人员变得富有。但那是，九十年代很有趣。是的，股价上涨了 13 万百分比。我们有七次拆股。

What was the value of the company when you went public? What was the total enterprise value or market cap when you went public, Michael?

迈克尔，你们上市时的公司价值是多少？总企业价值或市值是多少？

Was like it was like $150 million or something like that.

大概是 1.5 亿美元左右吧。

I mean, see, that's that's the beautiful thing. That's like I mean that is a series A in venture capital. It went up 100x after this initiation like in the public markets.

我的意思是，这很美妙。这相当于风险投资的 A 轮融资。在这次研究报告发布后，它在公开市场上的价值翻了 100 倍。

戴尔的库存周转率优势

Yeah. So, Bill, I just need you to recommend our stock one more time and then there was there there there was an element that I think is is super interesting like that that was also part of what Michael was referring to, but their their inventory turns were so damn high compared to the rest of the industry. So, they were they were, you know, building to individual customer order. They weren't building to inventory. They're building to demand.

是的。所以，比尔，我只需要你再推荐一次我们的股票。然后，我认为还有一个非常有趣的因素，也是迈克尔所指的，那就是他们的库存周转率比行业其他公司高得多。所以，他们是按单个客户订单来制造的。他们不是按库存制造的。他们是按需求制造的。

And um because component prices fell so much, we calculated they got a 200 basis point gross margin advantage just by having the FIFO Q.

由于零部件价格大幅下跌，我们计算出仅凭先进先出（FIFO）的库存管理，他们就获得了 200 个基点的毛利率优势。

Oh my goodness. Yeah. Exactly. Just in time.

哦，我的天哪。是的，没错。正是及时制（Just in Time）。

This this was a this was a structural competitive advantage. Uh by the way, it still is. Um but so so the the point is that the cost of the materials are always coming down. And if your competitor has, let's say, 90 days of inventory in a series of cues with distributors and dealers, and you have six days of inventory, which we actually had for about seven years in a row, six days of inventory, uh, think about that. Um the it's a structural competitive advantage because you're you have fresher inventory, you have fresher costs, and of course you don't have all that capital tied up.

这是一种结构性的竞争优势。顺便说一句，现在仍然是。所以，重点是材料成本总是在下降。如果你的竞争对手在分销商和经销商那里有 90 天的库存，而你只有六天的库存（我们连续七年都是六天库存），想想看。这是一种结构性的竞争优势，因为你的库存更新鲜，你的成本更低，而且你没有把那么多资本都套牢。

And so you're you're return on capital is essentially infinite, especially when you're paying your suppliers uh on uh a period longer than your your customers pay you. And so you have a a negative uh cash conversion cycle which which we still have typically around negative 50 days cash conversion cycle.

因此，你的资本回报率基本上是无限的，尤其当你付给供应商的账期比客户付给你的账期长时。所以你有一个负的现金转换周期，我们通常仍然保持在负 50 天左右的现金转换周期。

That's powerful. It's a beautiful thing. Yes, it is.

这很强大。这很美妙。是的，确实如此。

《投资美国法案》的签署与核心内容

Well, let's transition from uh 32 years ago to the present. Cash is king. Everything else is an opinion. No, no doubt. No doubt. So, so you two just um had a big win with this Invest America uh program that was just announced as part of the big bill and I know I know that Brad this was your baby and you spent a ton of time on it, but Michael came on board and helped out as well. So, why don't you tell everyone the details? We've talked about it before, but tell them the details of what landed.

好吧，让我们从 32 年前过渡到现在。“现金为王，其他都是观点。”没有疑问，没有疑问。所以，你们两位刚刚在“投资美国”计划中取得了巨大的胜利，这是作为一项大法案的一部分宣布的。我知道布拉德，这是你的心血，你为此付出了很多时间，但迈克尔也加入了进来并提供了帮助。所以，你能告诉大家具体细节吗？我们以前谈过，但告诉他们落地的情况。

Yeah. Well, thanks. and and and you know I remember last Fourth of July we were talking about this bill and I was sitting right here and honestly I thought the chance of of getting this passed into legislation was you know maybe 10% at best and we had some good fortune. Um as you know um we the legislation was called the Invest America Act. It was a bipartisan standalone bill and it ended up like a lot of other pieces of legislation getting subsumed by the reconciliation bill. Right. So, a lot of these things got packaged together in this one bill.

是的。谢谢。你知道，我记得去年独立日我们在讨论这项法案时，我正坐在这里，说实话，我认为它通过立法，最多只有 10% 的机会，但我们很幸运。你知道，该立法被称为《投资美国法案》。它是一项两党单独的法案，但最终像许多其他立法一样，被并入了综合预算调整法案中。所以，很多事情被打包在这一个法案里。

And of course, it was signed into law on July 4th down at the White House. You know, I've been at this four years. You know, I tried to get it done under Biden, but the stars just aligned in this moment. And and Michael was pretty early to get on board and support this. joined the CEO council um for Invest America but played a critical role with the president to help get it into the reconciliation bill over the course of the last 60 days.

当然，它在独立日于白宫签署成为法律。你知道，我为此努力了四年。我曾试图在拜登任期内完成，但时机恰逢其会。迈克尔很早就加入并支持了这项法案，加入了“投资美国”的 CEO 委员会，并在过去 60 天里与总统合作，帮助将其纳入综合预算调整法案。

But let's just talk about exactly what it means now that it's become law. So I think of this as a pretty significant evolution in the social contract. It creates private investment savings accounts, privately owned for every child at birth, seated with a thousand bucks in the S&P 500.

但让我们谈谈它成为法律后究竟意味着什么。我认为这是社会契约中一个非常重大的演变。它为每个孩子在出生时创建了私有投资储蓄账户，并以标准普尔 500 指数中的 1000 美元作为启动资金。

So, parents, companies, philanthropists can add money. Anybody can add money to these accounts. You can't take the money out of the accounts, right? It just compounds in the S&P 500 until you're 18 years old. So, we will spend the next year putting the program in place. It has to be launched under the terms of the legislation by July 4th, 2026, the 250th birthday of America.

所以，父母、公司、慈善家都可以注资。任何人都可以向这些账户注资。你不能把钱取出来，对吧？它只会在标准普尔 500 指数中复利增长，直到你 18 岁。所以，我们将花下一年来实施该计划。它必须根据立法条款，在美国建国 250 周年，即 2026 年 7 月 4 日之前启动。

And basically, we got it expanded. So all kids under the age of 18, that's 65 million kids are eligible. And I give a lot of credit to Senator Cruz who fought to expand the pool of eligibility here.

基本上，我们扩大了覆盖范围。所以所有 18 岁以下的儿童，即 6500 万儿童都有资格。我非常感谢克鲁兹参议员（Senator Cruz），他为扩大资格范围而努力。

So what that means is that they can open up an account, but only children born after January 1, 2025 get the $1,000 from Treasury, right? The other the others will have an account that someone else could put money in on their behalf and and they can add money to and there are a lot of advantages for their parents adding money uh for companies adding money to it. So it makes a lot of sense and my for Michael and I I think the key performance indicator here is if we're having this conversation a year from now we want to have 50 or 60 million kids signed up.

这意味着他们可以开户，但只有 2025 年 1 月 1 日之后出生的孩子才能获得财政部的 1000 美元。其他人将拥有一个账户，其他人可以代他们存钱，他们也可以往里加钱，父母或公司往里加钱都有很多好处。所以这很有道理，对我来说，对迈克尔来说，我认为这里的关键绩效指标是，如果一年后我们进行这次对话，我们希望有五六千万孩子注册。

Now of course if your child is born after July 4th of 2026 then they're going to automatically get an account set up when they get their social security number and they will automatically get the $1,000. But we have this one-time group all kids under the age of 18. We're going to have a big campaign to get all those folks signed up over the course of the next year.

当然，如果你的孩子在 2026 年 7 月 4 日之后出生，那么当他们拿到社会安全号码时，账户就会自动开立，他们也会自动获得 1000 美元。但我们有一个一次性的群体，所有 18 岁以下的儿童。我们将在未来一年内开展一场大型宣传活动，让所有人都注册。

And and I guess for me, I was reflecting on this um over the course of the last few days. And you know, at a time when you have an avowed socialist like Ma Donnie, you know, winning the primary in New York, it seems like, you know, the Invest America Act is really just the exact opposite, right? You're both trying to attack the problem of the wealth gap, but this is by getting everybody into the game of capitalism, making everybody actual owners in the upside of America's success rather than resorting to price controls, attacking businesses and success and creating really more dependency on government.

我这几天一直在思考这个问题。你知道，在一个公开的社会主义者马多尼（Ma Donnie）在纽约初选中获胜的时候，似乎“投资美国法案”恰恰是相反的，对吧？你们都在试图解决贫富差距问题，但这是通过让每个人都参与到资本主义的游戏中，让每个人都真正成为美国成功的受益者，而不是诉诸价格管制、攻击企业和成功，从而制造更多对政府的依赖。

So, I think we're at this critical crossroads in America and I think the Invest America Act comes at an important point in time. I think a lot of people think of it like a 529 account bill, but I think that dramatically underestimates what this is. This is a lifetime investment account.

所以，我认为我们正处于美国的一个关键十字路口，我认为“投资美国法案”来得正是时候。我认为很多人把它看作是 529 账户的法案，但我认为这大大低估了它的意义。这是一个终生投资账户。

So, they can compound over the course of your life. If you start with $1,000 and you add $750 per year, at 18, that's worth $50,000. At 30, that's worth $170,000. And at 50, it's worth a million dollar. Right? So, it really is a platform for unlocking dramatic compounding and savings in the upside of capitalism from birth. And um it wouldn't have happened without Michael.

所以，它可以随着你的生命而复利增长。如果你从 1000 美元开始，每年再增加 750 美元，到 18 岁时，它就值 5 万美元。到 30 岁时，价值 17 万美元。到 50 岁时，价值一百万美元。对吧？所以，它确实是一个平台，可以从出生开始，在资本主义的上升期解锁巨大的复利和储蓄。如果没有迈克尔，这一切都不会发生。

迈克尔·戴尔对法案的认可和企业参与

Well, and Brad, uh look, you deserve uh 99.9% of the credit. So, I'm going to give it to you. Uh you you really drove this thing uh passionately for several years, and it's amazing that it got done. I do think you'll see many companies provide uh matching contributions and u you know a number of companies have already said they're going to do that uh and it'll be like a benefit you know come work at our company and and uh have a kid and your your your child will get this uh and it's just going to be super easy for anyone to add to those accounts.

布拉德，你应得 99.9% 的功劳。所以，我把功劳给你。你确实充满热情地推动了这项工作好几年，能完成真是太棒了。我认为你会看到很多公司提供匹配缴款，而且一些公司已经表示他们会这么做，这就像是一种福利，你知道，来我们公司工作，生个孩子，你的孩子就能得到这个，而且任何人都可以非常容易地向这些账户注资。

I think it's also a chance to teach every child about financial literacy and about uh capitalism and free markets and uh you know look up in 15 or 18 years and you've got 70 million kids with these accounts. I also think you're gonna have philanthropists and uh Susan and I will will definitely be a part of that that will say hey you know this is a really good way to get money directly to the next generation in a uh way that is going to compound and have a difference in in their life.

我认为这也是一个向每个孩子传授金融知识、资本主义和自由市场理念的机会。再过 15 或 18 年回头看，你将有 7000 万孩子拥有这些账户。我还认为，你会看到慈善家们——苏珊和我肯定会是其中的一员——会说，嘿，你知道，这是将钱直接提供给下一代的一种非常好的方式，这种方式将带来复利，并在他们的生活中产生影响。

Our foundation has studied it this very carefully and we believe it's worthy of a significant contribution and Brad's been working you know with with the Treasury Department and others to set this up so that you know any philanthropist would be able to say hey you know here's a zip code here's a county here's a state here's a group of kids that I'd like to help I don't know who they are exactly but uh I want to help and I want to help their future and uh I I think I think you'll see a lot of philanthropists get very excited about this. I've had a discussion with a number of them and this could be a major platform for philanthropy in our country.

我们的基金会对此进行了非常仔细的研究，我们相信它值得一笔可观的捐款。布拉德一直在与财政部和其他部门合作设立这个机制，这样任何慈善家都可以说，嘿，你知道，这里有一个邮政编码、一个县、一个州，有一群我想帮助的孩子，我确切地不知道他们是谁，但我希望帮助他们，我想帮助他们的未来。我认为你会看到很多慈善家对此感到非常兴奋。我与其中一些人进行了讨论，这可能成为我们国家慈善事业的一个主要平台。

And and and just to put a a sharper lens on that, Michael, they might back every kid in a state or everyone in the nation on a year or just adopt the state, adopt uh a series of zip codes. Uh you know, I think again it'll be a platform for philanthropy.

迈克尔，为了更清晰地说明这一点，他们可能会资助一个州的所有孩子，或者资助全国所有孩子一年，或者只是认领一个州，认领一系列邮政编码。我想，这再次将成为一个慈善平台。

Yeah. Yeah. I think I think of it, Bill, you know, in some ways like the giving pledge 2.0. I mean, we we we've had massive wealth creation in this country, like unprecedented wealth creation in this country, right? But one unique feature of America that I don't think there's any other civilization in history that you can point to, okay, that has this character, which is the super wealthy in America by and large want to give away the vast majority of their wealth during their lifetime or shortly after they they die. I certainly know that that Michael's in in that group.

是的。比尔，我认为这在某种程度上就像“捐赠誓言 2.0”（Giving Pledge 2.0）。我的意思是，我们这个国家创造了巨大的财富，是前所未有的财富创造，对吧？但是美国有一个独特的特点，我认为历史上没有其他文明可以指出，其特点是，美国超级富豪大体上希望在生前或去世后不久将他们的大部分财富捐赠出去。我当然知道迈克尔属于这一群体。

Okay, think about this. In Europe, right, they invented generation skipping trusts. It was about coming up with legal mechanisms for creating dynastic wealth so as to not give any of your money away. Okay? And we have a culture in this country where people want to give away large sums of money. The challenge is the charitable infrastructure has not necessarily scaled to meet the needs of people who want to give away billions of dollars at a time.

好的，想想看。在欧洲，他们发明了隔代信托。那是为了制定法律机制来创造世袭财富，以不捐出一分钱。我们的国家有一种文化，人们想捐出大笔钱。挑战在于，慈善基础设施的规模尚未扩大到满足那些想一次捐出数十亿美元的人的需求。

And I I I said to I asked Michael and Susan the question over a year ago. I said, you know, if you wanted to give away a lot of money in the state of Texas today, like how would you do it directly to kids? And there's not a good answer, right? Because there's not a financial infrastructure in place that has a set of rules associated with it, you know, where you could have somebody like the Treasury Department. We're gonna have a pooled Invest America account at Treasury where Michael and Susan or other philanthropists could give money to this pooled account and it would be dispersed to all these kids accounts subject to all the rules and regulations of use.

一年前，我问迈克尔和苏珊一个问题。我说，如果你今天想在德克萨斯州捐出很多钱，如何直接捐给孩子们？但没有一个好的答案，对吧？因为没有现成的金融基础设施，没有与之相关的规则集，你不能让像财政部这样的人介入。财政部将有一个“投资美国”的集中账户，迈克尔和苏珊或其他慈善家可以向这个集中账户捐款，然后这些资金将根据所有使用规则和规定，分配到所有这些孩子的账户中。

So the kids can't take the money out but they can see it compound. That simply does not exist today. It's impossible to do that at scale today. And at the the the long end of the curve, if you think about, you know, my family as an example, we do a lot with the East Palo Alto school district, um you know, uh some of these low-income school districts in the state of California where I can just adopt that school and say for every kid in that school, I'm going to give $1,000 a year to.

所以孩子们不能把钱拿出来，但他们可以看到它在复利增长。这在今天是不存在的。在今天这个规模上是不可能做到的。从长远来看，如果你想想我的家人，我们为东帕洛阿尔托（East Palo Alto）学区做了很多工作，你知道，加州一些低收入学区，我可以收养这所学校，然后说，这所学校的每个孩子，我每年都会给他们 1000 美元。

So this unlocks, I think, massive creativity, Michael, around philanthropy. And that's what I mean. What we know in Silicon Valley if you build an open platform a million applications can bloom. A million ideas can be built on top of this. I mean we've heard from states that want to add $10,000 for every kid born in the state if they, you know, if they graduate from high school in the state.

所以我想，迈克尔，这为慈善事业开启了巨大的创造力。这就是我的意思。我们在硅谷知道，如果你建立一个开放的平台，一百万个应用程序可以蓬勃发展。一百万个想法可以建立在这个平台之上。我们听说一些州希望为该州出生的每个孩子增加 10000 美元，如果他们在该州高中毕业的话。

So, I think we haven't even scratched the surface of the beautiful competition and the beautiful philanthropy and the long tale of philanthropy churches and parents and friends that we'll be able to give to these accounts. And so, our job is to make sure that we make it as frictionless as possible that we work and we're we're that's one of the core things that we're doing.

所以，我认为我们还没有触及到这些账户将能获得的、关于竞争、关于慈善事业、关于教会、父母和朋友捐赠的广阔前景的皮毛。所以，我们的工作是确保我们让这个过程尽可能顺畅，这是我们正在做的核心工作之一。

账户的资金注入规则

And what you're describing those accounts don't don't solely take money at the initiation and they can take money all along the way, which is how you could support a school or something like that.

你描述的这些账户不仅仅在启动时接收资金，它们可以随时接收资金，这样你就可以支持一所学校或其他机构。

Correct. So, the way it works, Bill, is um and all of this, I mean, Michael and I, I think, learned a lot about the the the act of of legislation going through because, you know, it's one thing to get it put in the reconciliation bill. It's one thing to get high level buy in, but just in the last two weeks, we were negotiating the nitty-gritty. I think this was 23 pages of tax, you know, uh changes in the reconciliation bill associated with the Invest America Act.

正确的。运作方式是这样的，比尔。我认为迈克尔和我都在这个过程中学到了很多关于立法的知识。你知道，把它写入综合预算调整法案是一回事，获得高层认可是另一回事，但在过去两周，我们一直在谈判细节。我认为这涉及到与《投资美国法案》相关的 23 页税收修改。

So, families can give um or or recipients can receive up to $5,000 a year from family, from f friends, uh uh you know, etc. Companies can give $2,500 a year per recipient tax-free, so pre-tax. Um so Dell Corporation for example has raised their hand and said you know we intend to give uh to the kids of of our employees. So has Uber so has Nvidia so has Oracle. So has Salesforce. So has uh T-Mobile. So has iHeart Media. So you know it's an incredible list that has already come together.

所以，家庭可以捐赠，或者接收者每年可以从家人、朋友那里收到高达 5000 美元。公司可以为每位受益人每年免税捐赠 2500 美元，即税前。例如，戴尔公司已经表示他们打算向员工的孩子捐款。优步（Uber）、英伟达（Nvidia）、甲骨文（Oracle）、Salesforce、T-Mobile、iHeart Media 也是如此。已经有一份令人难以置信的名单聚集在一起。

And we're going to go to the Business Round Table. We're going to go to the largest companies in America and we're going to ask them all to do it. Now we're not telling them the amount they need to give. All we're saying is give an amount that's appropriate to your company and to your employee base.

我们将去商业圆桌会议（Business Round Table），去美国最大的公司，并要求他们都这样做。我们不会告诉他们需要捐赠多少，我们只是说捐赠一个适合贵公司和员工群体的金额。

I just heard from Tony yesterday uh at Door Dash. He retweeted something about this. Sam Alman I heard from over the weekend once he heard it was passed, you know, retweeted something about this. So, I think the the the business enthusiasm is going to be very big and substantial.

我昨天刚从 DoorDash 的托尼那里听说，他转发了关于这个的消息。周末我从山姆·阿尔特曼（Sam Alman）那里听说，他一听到法案通过的消息，就转发了相关内容。所以，我认为商业上的热情会非常高涨和实质性。

But remember, the most powerful givers are moms and dads, grandparents, friends, birthdays, and bar mitzvah. And all of those dollars ultimately like don't really generally find a home for savings and compounding. And we're going to make it as easy as Venmoing in this money, Apple paying money in.

但请记住，最有力的捐赠者是父母、祖父母、朋友，生日和成年礼（Bar Mitzvah）。而所有这些钱最终通常找不到储蓄和复利的归宿。我们将让人们像通过 Venmo 或 Apple Pay 一样轻松地将钱转入。

And you know, one of the studies that we did that was really profound in partnership with the Milken Institute. They found a whole host of of things. One was that low-income cohorts tend to save at about the same rate as higher income cohorts if they have an account. The problem is that nobody in a low-inccome cohort has a savings account or investment account. So, I think you're going to see, you know, a lot of giving a lot of contributions by all sorts of folks once we set this up.

我们与米尔肯研究所（Milken Institute）合作进行的一项非常有意义的研究发现了很多东西。其中之一是，如果低收入群体有账户，他们的储蓄率与高收入群体大致相同。问题是，低收入群体中没有人拥有储蓄或投资账户。所以，一旦我们建立起来，我认为你会看到各种人进行大量的捐赠和贡献。

We also learned that once we do this, kids are more likely to graduate from high school and college, more likely to start a business, more likely to buy a home, less likely to be incarcerated. So, I think the societal ROI of this will be really large over time.

我们还了解到，一旦我们这样做，孩子们更可能高中和大学毕业，更可能创业，更可能买房，更不可能入狱。所以，我认为这项措施的社会回报率（ROI）将随着时间的推移变得非常大。

And it sounds like you're going to try and find a way where if someone wanted to donate, Michael mentioned zip codes, but some other way that if people wanted to just target the the low-income, most needy, that there'll be a way to do that.

听起来，如果有人想捐款，迈克尔提到了邮政编码，但还有其他方式，如果人们想专门针对低收入、最需要帮助的人群，会有相应的方式来实现这一点。

针对低收入群体的定向捐赠机制

Yeah, this was really this was a really important issue to Michael and to myself and and you know, I'll just, you know, give you a bit of a window into the weeds. you know, we tried to get uh household income as one of the one of the targeting mechanisms and we weren't able to get bipartisan agreement on that, but we were able to get a proxy for that, which is you can target by uh by zip codes. So, you can target down to groups of 5,000 or more by zip code. And we think through that geo targeting, so for example, Michael could target the Rio Grand Valley. I could target, you know, East Oakland. Um, you know, so there there there zip codes that you could target that I think uh certainly include a predominance of lower income uh households.

是的，这对迈克尔和我来说都是一个非常重要的问题。我给你透露一些细节：我们曾试图将家庭收入作为定位机制之一，但未能获得两党共识。但我们找到了一个替代方案，那就是可以通过邮政编码进行定位。你可以定位到 5000 人或更多人的邮政编码群体。通过这种地理定位，例如，迈克尔可以定位格兰德河谷（Rio Grand Valley），我可以定位奥克兰东区（East Oakland）。所以，你可以定位的邮政编码中，我认为确实包括了占多数的低收入家庭。

That's fantastic.

太棒了。

金融知识普及与“投资美国”的协同作用

Hey, Bill, I know you've been involved in financial literacy and education for a long time. Tell us about the organization you're partnering with and, you know, perhaps as a you know, kind of a a a potential partnership for Invest America.

嘿，比尔，我知道你长期参与金融知识普及和教育工作。给我们讲讲你正在合作的组织，以及它是否可能成为“投资美国”的潜在合作伙伴。

Yeah, my wife and I have been giving to an organization called NextGen Personal Finance. Um, there's a gentleman there named Tim Ranzetta who has just been pushing for financial literacy in high schools. So, we can add a link in here, but from 2021 to 2025 in only a 4-year window, um, we've gone from 11 states to 29 states. Um, and Texas just passed this very recently, a few weeks ago.

我和我的妻子一直在向一个名为“下一代个人理财”（NextGen Personal Finance）的组织捐款。那里有一位名叫蒂姆·兰泽塔（Tim Ranzetta）的先生，他一直在推动高中普及金融知识。我们可以在这里添加一个链接，但在 2021 年到 2025 年这短短四年间，我们从 11 个州增加到了 29 个州。德克萨斯州就在几周前刚刚通过了这项法案。

And so the idea, which sounds obvious, it's actually quite shocking that it's not true, is just to add a semester of financial literacy to the high school curriculum. Um, we send kids out to get jobs and we haven't taught them, you know, how credit cards might take advantage of them and how to build a monthly budget and how to use a checkbook and, you know, how how to plan. And so I think you know these two things u complement each other quite a bit but but that's another movement that it's nice to see gaining momentum simultaneously with this one.

所以这个想法听起来很明显，但它实际上令人震惊，直到现在才变得普遍：就是在高中课程中增加一个学期的金融知识教育。我们让孩子们去工作，但我们没有教他们信用卡可能如何利用他们，如何制定月度预算，如何使用支票簿，如何规划。所以我想这两件事是相辅相成的，但这是另一个与“投资美国”同步获得动力的运动，看到它发展起来是件好事。

Yeah it's you know I talked to Tim Texas just became you know like you said 29th state I think to require a semester of financial literacy education. Um and you know some people said you know the Treasury Department, Invest America, they're not going to own the financial literacy. What what again I think when you create a platform of ownership now it makes all of these financial literacy programs and organizations across the country just way more effective. Right? Because when you're talking to a kid who actually you say open up your Invest America account on your phone. Let's talk about how you got 12,000$14,000 into that account. Let's look at how it's compounded. Let's talk about what it means to own the companies that are listed there. What it means to be a shareholder. I think you just have a much more engaged student, right? Because today 95% of those students don't own anything and they look at their parents and their parents don't really own things. And so it's a lot harder to get motivated to learn about something when you don't think you're going to have the prospect of ownership.

是的，我和蒂姆聊过，德克萨斯州就像你说的，是第 29 个要求一个学期金融知识教育的州。有人说财政部、投资美国不会主导金融知识教育。但我认为，当你创造一个所有权平台时，它会让全国范围内的所有金融知识普及项目和组织变得更有效。因为当你和一个孩子交谈时，你说，在手机上打开你的“投资美国”账户。让我们谈谈你是如何把 12000 到 14000 美元存入那个账户的。让我们看看它是如何复利的。让我们谈谈拥有那里列出的公司意味着什么，作为股东意味着什么。我认为你将拥有一个参与度更高的学生，对吧？因为今天，这些学生中有 95% 没有任何所有权，他们看看他们的父母，他们的父母也没有真正拥有东西。所以，当你认为你没有机会拥有任何东西时，就很难有动力去学习相关知识。

There are so many great organizations like Tim's out there. Um, and I look forward to seeing how they take this platform and run with it to turbocharge their own efforts.

像蒂姆（Tim）的组织有很多很棒的组织。我期待着看到他们如何利用这个平台来加速他们自己的努力。

关于法案资金和赤字问题的讨论

Brad, I know you wanted to mention um the budget deficit and and the funding for this program and put it in a little bit of perspective just with all the talk and concern about how big the budget deficit is.

布拉德，我知道你想提一下预算赤字和这项计划的资金问题，并结合大家对预算赤字规模的讨论和担忧，将其置于一定的背景下进行说明。

Yeah. I mean, listen, you know, we've had a uh a huge debate among our our our friend group um uh about this and you know, and some of my friends were even critical that, you know, this is part of the problem, if you will. So, you know, to break this down, um the max cost of this is 3.7 billion a year. We have a 3.7 million kids born every year. If you give them each $1,000, that's 3.7 billion.

是的。听着，你知道，我们的朋友圈里就这个问题进行了激烈的辩论，我的一些朋友甚至批评说，如果你愿意，这是问题的一部分。所以，为了分解这个问题，这项计划的最大成本是每年 37 亿美元。我们每年有 370 万新生儿。如果每人给 1000 美元，那就是 37 亿美元。

So just to you know kind of put that in context 3.7 billion is about what we contribute we give to Afghanistan and Nigeria in the terms of foreign aid every year. So I think one of the things as a country we just have to ask is about priorities. Is it more important to give every kid in America a private investment account a little seed from birth and get them on the right track or to give $3.5 billion to Afghanistan Nigeria? And I think those are the type of choices we're going to be forced to make. And I'm not saying that the dollars going to Afghanistan, Nigeria are wasted, but we make these decisions every single day in our budget.

所以，为了把这件事放到背景中，37 亿美元大约是我们每年用于阿富汗和尼日利亚的对外援助金额。所以我想作为一个国家，我们必须问的一个问题是关于优先事项的。是给每个美国孩子一个私人投资账户，让他们从出生起就有一点启动资金并走上正轨更重要，还是给阿富汗和尼日利亚 35 亿美元更重要？我认为这些是我们将被迫做出的选择。我并不是说花在阿富汗、尼日利亚的钱是浪费的，但我们每天的预算中都会做出这些决定。

And so for me, this is, you know, that's one angle. The second angle is just as a percentage of our national revenue. This is 1/100th of 1% of our national revenue. So it it it's pretty inconsequential in terms of the overall budget.

对我来说，这是一个角度。第二个角度是，就我们国家收入的百分比而言，这是我们国家收入的万分之一。所以从整体预算来看，它微不足道。

But the final point on it is, as you've heard me argue, according to the studies that were done on this, this will actually be revenue contributing 20 to 30 years out because the taxes you have to pay when you exit the accounts on the capital gains will be more than what the government is contributing on an annual basis into the accounts. And so among the things we should be worried about when it comes to the budget, I don't think this is one of one of them.

但最后一点是，正如你听我争论过的，根据对这项法案进行的研究，这实际上将在 20 到 30 年后贡献税收，因为当你退出账户时，你为资本利得支付的税款将超过政府每年向账户投入的资金。所以，在预算方面，我们应该担心的事情中，我不认为这是其中之一。

However, I would say unquestionably that um I remain as concerned about the budget deficit as ever. Um and you know been a supporter of a balanced budget amendment for a long time. I happen to think that this is something that is aligned with that, not at odds with that. Making every kid a capitalist from birth is going to better align us with the policies that allow the company country to be continue to grow. Um, and I think growth is a critical element to making sure that we get our deficit to GDP back in a uh, you know, in in a manageable place.

然而，我确实想说，我对预算赤字的担忧一如既往。我长期以来一直是平衡预算修正案的支持者。我恰好认为这件事是与该目标一致的，而不是相悖的。让每个孩子从出生起就成为资本家，将使我们更好地与那些允许国家持续增长的政策保持一致。我认为增长是确保我们将赤字占 GDP 的比率恢复到可控水平的关键因素。

Michael, I know you care a lot about that issue. Any any other thoughts on on that particular point?

迈克尔，我知道你非常关心这个问题。对这一点你还有其他想法吗？

政府支出与经济增长

Yeah, I mean, government's obviously been spending too much and uh, there's been some some renewed attention and focus on that. That's a good thing. Uh, it gets priced into to the currency, right? And we see it in all the effects uh you know whether it's inflation or the value of the currency and uh you can't really uh escape that.

是的，很明显，政府支出过多了，现在又重新引起了对这个问题的关注和重视，这是件好事。它会反映在货币中，对吧？我们可以在所有影响中看到这一点，无论是通货膨胀还是货币价值，你都无法逃避。

I I think the the the spending has to come under control. Uh now maybe we get this incredible uh productivity lift. I'm sure we're going to talk about that as we get to the AI fund portion here. Um, but we shouldn't be spending uh so much more than than we're taking in as as a government. We, you know, we I've sort of stepped back from the hysterics and you say we don't have a loan to value problem as a country. Um, we we have a spending problem.

我认为开支必须得到控制。也许我们会因为人工智能获得巨大的生产力提升——我相信我们稍后讨论人工智能资金部分时会谈到这一点。但是，我们政府的支出不应该远超我们的收入。我从那些歇斯底里的言论中退后一步，我说我们国家没有“贷款价值比”（loan-to-value）问题，我们有一个“支出问题”。

Talk to us about the I want to dig into that because it's a really important point. Talked about loan to value. When you say loan to value, what do you mean by that?

和我们谈谈，我想深入探讨一下，因为这是一个非常重要的观点。你谈到了“贷款价值比”。当你说“贷款价值比”时，你是什么意思？

Yeah, what what I mean is the value the the you know loan to value is a common term and phraseology used in banking and credit markets and essentially refers to you know the the uh amount of a of a loan relative to the value that it's it's being borrowed upon. If you think about the deficit uh you know as against the value of all the assets in the United States, we don't have a loan to value problem.

是的，我的意思是价值——你知道，“贷款价值比”是银行和信贷市场中常用的术语，本质上是指贷款金额相对于其所借款项的价值。如果你把赤字相对于美国所有资产的价值来看，我们就没有贷款价值比的问题。

And of course, so the total value of all the assets in the United States are a couple hundred trillion. Our annual deficit is 2 trillion. So you would look at that and say as a loan to value, that's not an issue at all.

当然，美国所有资产的总价值是几百万亿美元。我们的年度赤字是 2 万亿美元。所以你会看这个数字，认为从贷款价值比来看，这根本不是问题。

Well, I I would look at the total deficit as against the the the total value of the assets. All right. Now you have so 36 billion 36 trillion of debt against 200 plus trillion of assets. Right? Now you have to take into account uh private uh assets and private debt also. So it would be a different equation there. But also the government has taxing authority and so it could you know increase the taxes but net it all out. Uh the government shouldn't be spending what it's spending relative to what it takes in. And there's many ways to address that, but um we we should we should be worried about where the deficit is and the rate of increase.

好吧，我会把总赤字与其所代表的资产总价值进行比较。你现在有 36 万亿美元的债务，对应 200 多万亿美元的资产，对吧？你必须考虑到私人资产和私人债务。所以那里的等式会不同。但政府也有税收权力，它可以增加税收，但把所有这些相抵消。政府的支出相对于其收入来说是过高的。有很多方法可以解决这个问题，但我们应该担心赤字在哪里以及增长的速度。

对赤字削减和经济增长预测的看法

Let me ask a question about that. Um well, first maybe to level set. So the argument out of the White House is that the reconciliation bill cuts the deficit. So the deficit was about 1.9 trillion. Their argument um is that it cuts the deficit by about 150 billion a year. So 1.5 trillion over 10. Okay. And then they also argue you get another $250 billion in tariff revenue incremental from the start of the year. Right? We saw that in the run rate revenue in the month of May. So you add those two things together, now you're at 400 billion. So if you were at 1.9 trillion deficit, now you're down to about $1.5 trillion deficit. By my math, that drops it to about 5% deficit to GDP. Bessant has said he will get it to 3% deficit to GDP, which is what most people say is, you know, reasonably healthy.

让我问一个关于赤字的问题。首先，我们先做个铺垫。白宫的说法是，综合预算调整法案削减了赤字。赤字大约是 1.9 万亿美元。他们的论点是，它每年可以削减约 1500 亿美元的赤字。所以 10 年累计削减 1.5 万亿美元。好的。他们还认为，从年初开始，你还能额外获得 2500 亿美元的关税收入。我们五月份的收入运行率就看到了这一点。所以把这两者加起来，你现在就有 4000 亿美元的改善。所以如果你原本有 1.9 万亿美元的赤字，现在下降到约 1.5 万亿美元的赤字。根据我的计算，这使得赤字占 GDP 的比重下降到约 5%。贝桑特（Bessant）说他能让赤字占 GDP 的比重降至 3%，这是大多数人认为的相对健康的水平。

Um I think people would like to, you know, not have any at all, but I think most people view 2 to 3% as as as reasonable. He thinks he can get there by 27 or 28 through the two things I just mentioned, right? tariff revenue and the deficit reduction in the reconciliation bill plus an incremental 100 to 200 basis points of growth in the country caused by you know lower taxes less regulation AI productivity etc. Um so you know are is your view that we just have to wait and see you know like does that show up or does it not show up?

我想人们希望根本没有赤字，但我认为大多数人认为 2% 到 3% 是合理的。他认为到 27 年或 28 年，可以通过我刚才提到的两件事来实现：关税收入、预算调整法案中的赤字削减，再加上由于减税、减少监管、人工智能生产力等因素，使国家增长额外增加 100 到 200 个基点。那么，你的看法是，我们只需要拭目以待，看看这些是否真的会出现？

Well, obviously we have to wait and see see. Uh I think on the on the on the trade and tariffs front, I think this is this is very tricky, right? Uh we have uh products flowing back and forth and we have uh services flowing back and forth. And if you think about you know the market cap of the US companies versus the rest of the world uh hey guys uh US is doing really well relative to the rest of the world in market cap and the reason is that we have a substantial lead in the most valuable industries in the world.

显然我们必须拭目以待。我认为在贸易和关税方面，这非常棘手，对吧？产品和服务的双向流动。如果你想想美国公司的市值与世界其他地区相比，美国在市值方面表现非常出色，原因是我们在世界上最有价值的行业中拥有巨大的领先优势。

Correct.

没错。

And and so the the issue there is that if you if you think about um you know uh the the trade in products, you also have to think about the trade in services and you know how that's going to be dealt with in a negotiation. I don't know how that'll all get sorted out, but I I I don't think it's a I don't think it's a simple one uh line item fix.

所以那里的问题是，如果你考虑产品贸易，你也必须考虑服务贸易，以及这将在谈判中如何处理。我不知道这一切如何解决，但我认为这不是一个简单的、一项修正就能解决的问题。

埃隆·马斯克的政治行动与平衡预算的建议

Right. Right. No, I think it's, you know, I it's all relevant right now. Elon's talking about forming a third party, the American party, really in response what appears to be frustration over uh Doge and the budget deficit and the concerns by folks like Ray Dalio about, you know, a debt spiral in the United States.

对。对。不，我认为这都很相关。埃隆（Elon）正谈论组建一个第三方，即“美国党”，这似乎是对“Doge”事件、预算赤字以及雷·达里奥（Ray Dalio）等人对美国债务螺旋式上升的担忧所产生的沮丧反应。

Um, you know, you got guys like Scott Bessant saying, you know, Elon, you catch rockets, leave the finances to me. Um, Bessant seems very confident that he's going to get this back down to two to 3% deficit to GDP. I I actually like the the uh suggestion, Bill, by Dantis. Um, you know, rather than forming a third party, which seems to me just chaotic and a lot of overhead and has not historically been that successful.

你看到斯科特·贝桑特（Scott Bessant）这样的人说：“埃隆，你负责火箭，财政交给我。”贝桑特似乎非常有信心能将赤字占 GDP 的比重降至 2% 到 3%。我其实更喜欢丹蒂斯（Dantis）的比尔的建议。与组建一个在我看来只是混乱且开销巨大，历史上也不太成功的第三方相比。

I would love to see Elon, you know, like if this is his his main issue, if it's if if it's the budget deficit and debt, which I would love to see him take on, right? He could do a series of things. Number one, he could really sponsor a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution of the United States under article 5. If he put $10 billion against that effort, it would be the single largest constitutional effort in the history of the country.

我希望看到埃隆，如果这是他的主要问题，如果预算赤字和债务是他想解决的问题，对吧？他可以做一系列事情。第一，他可以真正赞助一项美国宪法第五条规定的平衡预算修正案。如果他为此投入 100 亿美元，这将是美国历史上规模最大的宪法努力。

I think there's broad bipartisan support uh for a balanced budget amendment. We have 30 32 states that have supported this in the past. I think you only need 34 to get it uh uh constitutional convention called. 38 states to get it ratified. You know, it wouldn't it hasn't happened. Um, you know, the founders made it hard to amend the Constitution for a reason, but I actually think if he put those type of dollars and that type of focus behind it, we could get it done.

我认为对平衡预算修正案有广泛的两党支持。过去有 30、32 个州支持过。我认为只需要 34 个州就能召集制宪会议，38 个州才能批准。你知道，它还没有发生。创始人让修改宪法变得困难是有原因的，但我确实认为如果他投入那样的资金和关注度，我们就能做到。

And then on top of that, he could target both Democrats and Republicans in primaries around this issue. And to me, it just seems like that targeted approach, that very focused approach uh to balancing the budget would have all sorts of positive impacts. Number one, it keeps the country focused on this issue. It keeps this administration focused on this issue. And, you know, I think you have an outside chance at getting a constitutional amendment, and you certainly are going to have a lot of Republicans and Democrats who will run on that issue if they think they'll get, you know, Elon support.

然后在此之上，他可以围绕这个问题针对民主党和共和党在初选中进行干预。对我来说，这种有针对性、高度集中的平衡预算方法将带来各种积极影响。第一，它能让国家持续关注这个问题。它能让现任政府持续关注这个问题。而且，我认为你有一丝机会获得宪法修正案，而且如果共和党和民主党认为他们能得到埃隆的支持，他们肯定会竞选这个议题。

So, I'm not sure how this will all evolve, whether there's going to be a third political party or not, but I would love to see this issue get dealt with. I remember Ross Perot tackling it. 1992, 1991, Michael, um I I know you know you you knew Ross and um you know, to me that that type of attention is the type of attention that that we're going to need.

所以，我不确定这一切会如何发展，是否会有一个第三个政党，但我希望看到这个问题得到解决。我记得罗斯·佩罗（Ross Perot）在 91、92 年也曾关注过这个问题，迈克尔。我知道你认识罗斯。对我来说，那种关注是我们所需要的。

AI人才大战的爆发与原因

Why don't we why don't we shift gears here for a second. Um, this one I, you know, I've been dying to ask you both about. There's this really unprecedented war for AI talent going on. Um, and it it was kicked off by by Zuckerberg and Meta. They made the Aqua hire of of scale for $15 billion. Um, they brought on board uh, Alexander Wang, you know, to help lead that effort. Then they brought on board Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross. They've poached a bunch of people from OpenAI, a bunch of people from Google, and now today another, you know, announcement of somebody from from Apple. The talk is 75 to$100 million annual pay packages, massive signing bonus, really dollar amounts. Michael and Bill, I don't I've never heard of uh you know in the tech industry. So, Bill, given that recent set of facts, like what is this is Is this a good thing? Is this a bad thing? What do you think the downstream implications of this are?

我们换个话题。这是我一直想问你们两个的问题。现在正在发生一场前所未有的 AI 人才争夺战。这是扎克伯格和 Meta 发起的。他们以 150 亿美元收购了 Scale 的 Aqua 团队。他们引进了亚历山大·王（Alexander Wang）来领导这项工作。然后他们引进了纳特·弗里德曼（Nat Friedman）和丹尼尔·格罗斯（Daniel Gross）。他们从 OpenAI 挖走了一批人，从谷歌挖走了一批人，今天又宣布从苹果挖人。传闻年薪高达 7500 万到 1 亿美元，还有巨额签约奖金。迈克尔和比尔，我从未在科技行业听说过这样的薪酬。比尔，鉴于这些最新事实，这是好事还是坏事？你认为这有什么后续影响？

Well, I mean, I would I would back up a little bit. I don't think it started with Meta. I mean, I think it started with the cycle that we've been under in the private funding market. you know, we saw some of this stuff during Zer, but um you know, we've moved to a world, and I I talk about this in detail on on Oshanessy's podcast if someone wants to go listen to it from a few weeks back, but we've evolved to a place where when there's a successful company, the latestage private market at large tries to shovel feed cash into them. And so we have private companies that have raised not just a hundred million but a billion or more. And we have a handful of private companies um including OpenAI who are um voracious and audacious enough to burn two, three, four, five billion dollars a year.

嗯，我想我得稍微回顾一下。我不认为这始于 Meta。我认为这是始于我们私有资金市场所经历的周期。你知道，我们在“零年”（Zer，指 2000 年互联网泡沫时期）看到过一些类似的情况，但我们现在进入了一个世界（如果有人想听几周前 O’Shaughnessy 播客的详细介绍，我对此进行了详细讨论），那就是当一家公司成功时，晚期私人市场会试图向其注入大量现金。因此，我们有一些私人公司，筹集的资金不仅仅是 1 亿，而是 10 亿甚至更多。我们有几家私人公司，包括 OpenAI，它们贪婪而大胆，每年烧掉二三十四五十亿美元。

And so you start doing that and you create a situation where private companies and we saw this a lot during Zer but private companies have an odd advantage against public companies in that their the the investors are more willing to let them lose a lot of money than the public investment you know investors may be willing to. And so they get bold and they get audacious and you know OpenAI, Anthropic, they were all paying people tons of money before Meta did this. Um they were paying them 10 million a year. You know maybe smaller than what you were talking about but they were doing it. Um and they were providing liquidity earlier like 2 years in instead of waiting for four and liquidity is a private company and all of these things which in some cases may have let these people leave because they didn't have any lock in. So that part may have backfired.

所以你开始这样做，就创造了一种情况，私人公司——我们在“零年”期间看到很多这种情况——相比上市公司，它们有一种奇怪的优势，因为私人投资者更愿意让他们亏损大笔资金，而公众投资者可能不愿意。所以他们变得大胆起来，OpenAI、Anthropic 在 Meta 这样做之前，都在向人们支付巨额薪酬。他们每年支付 1000 万美元。也许比你说的少，但他们确实在做。他们也更早地提供了流动性，比如两年后而不是等四年，流动性是一家私人公司所提供的，所有这些事情在某些情况下可能导致这些人离开，因为他们没有锁定期。所以这部分可能适得其反。

Um but in Zuck you know you have someone who's had his back against the wall a couple times and gotten bold and changed what he was doing and succeeded again. And so he has conviction that he's willing to take a big bet. I think he's very willing to look at cost as a percentage of his market cap and to view risk as spending against a percentage of his market cap. Not everyone's capable of doing that. I think it may be the right math actually. Um in terms of you know how how big a bet he wants to make. Um but yeah, it's an what he has done here in the past three weeks is is an experiment that's never been tried before. But there's unlimited free agency in business unlike sports. And he just went and bought the, you know, 27 Yankees, you know, of AI.

但在扎克（Zuck）身上，你看到了一个几次被逼入绝境，然后变得大胆、改变做法并再次成功的人。所以他有信念，愿意下大赌注。我认为他非常愿意将成本视为其市值的一百分比，并将风险视为相对于其市值的支出。并非每个人都能做到这一点。我认为这实际上可能是正确的计算方法，关于他想下多大的赌注。但是，他在过去三周所做的事情是一次前所未有的实验。但商业中存在无限的自由球员市场，这与体育界不同。他直接购买了 AI 界的“27 名洋基队球员”。

创始人控制与Meta的优势

Yeah. I mean, and and I think your point is a great one. And listen, we're shareholders in Meta. We're shareholders in Open AI. I wouldn't be a shareholder in in Meta if I didn't think, you know, in fact, I remember back in 22 when um you know, when we took our big position there and people said to me, "Oh, what are you what are you doing? this is a founder controlled company. He's never going to become more efficient. He's never going to do these things." I said the whole reason I want to be all in on this company is it's founder controlled. I think it is a massive advantage that he has today, right? And he's talking about risking 1% of his company, right? In order to reboot around AI, that seems to me to be a very very rational economic decision.

是的。我认为你的观点很棒。听着，我们是 Meta 的股东，也是 OpenAI 的股东。如果我不认为如此，我就不会是 Meta 的股东。事实上，我记得在 22 年，当我们大举建仓时，人们对我说：“哦，你在做什么？这是一家创始人控制的公司，他永远不会变得更有效率，他永远不会做这些事。”我说，我想全力投资这家公司的原因正是因为它是由创始人控制的。我认为这是他今天拥有的巨大优势，对吧？他正谈论冒 1% 的公司市值风险，以便围绕人工智能进行重启，这在我看来是一个非常理性的经济决策。

And there's no and this is just a talent war. He's got to, you know, Llama 4 was not where it needed to be to compete heads up, but he has one advantage none of those other companies have. He has the world's biggest printing press shooting out billion dollar bills, right? He's not relying on the beneficence of venture capitalists. The guy has a business model that is generating the cash to fund all this. And so, he's leveraging that cash as a source of competitive advantage, which seems to me to make a lot of sense. I think it's going to make it very difficult and I'm, you know, that's why I was asking about the downstream implications, Bill. If you're a company that's trying to compete against that, I don't think many venture companies can compete against that on a on a durable long-term basis. Certainly not the real startups.

而且这只是一场人才战争。Llama 4 还没有好到可以正面竞争的程度，但他有一个其他公司都没有的优势。他拥有世界上最大的印钞机，印着十亿美元的钞票，对吧？他不依赖风险投资家的恩惠。这家伙拥有一个能产生现金来资助这一切的商业模式。因此，他正在利用这些现金作为竞争优势的来源，这在我看来很有道理。我认为这将使竞争变得非常困难，这就是我问你下游影响的原因，比尔。如果你是一家试图与之竞争的公司，我不认为许多风险投资公司能长期与之抗衡。当然，真正的初创公司更不行。

初创公司在人才争夺战中的挑战与文化影响

Yeah. Yeah. I was having a discussion with a real AI startup uh founder this weekend and, you know, he was asking about talent and like I I don't know what you do. I mean, I don't think you hire anyone that's top thousand in the Bay Area. Um, you won't be able to afford them. But, but I do think there is a fundamental question because it's easy to and I want to get Michael's opinion on this. It's easy to say the percentage of market cap and make that bold decision. But there are cultural implications, right, of bringing in employees that make radically different amounts of money than the other employee base. How how do you think that will be? How difficult will that be to manage?

是的，是的。这个周末我与一位真正的 AI 初创公司创始人讨论过，他问及人才问题，我说我不知道该怎么办。我认为你无法雇佣湾区排名前一千的人才，你负担不起。但我确实认为有一个根本性的问题——我想听听迈克尔的意见。很容易谈论市值百分比并做出那个大胆的决定。但是，雇佣薪酬与其他员工群体有巨大差异的员工，会带来文化影响，对吧？你认为管理起来会有多困难？

I think it'll be a challenge culturally for sure. Um, you know, uh, he could have a long line outside of his door, uh, w with people, uh, you know, wanting this or complaining about that and that could be a distraction. So, you know, I think people uh, generally have a sense of fairness, right? and they they want to be treated fairly um relative to others and relative to the the opportunities that they have out there in in the overall market. And if they feel that they're not being treated fairly, uh that's going to be a problem.

当然，我认为这在文化上将是一个挑战。他门外可能会排起长队，人们想要这个或者抱怨那个，这可能会分散注意力。所以，你知道，我认为人们通常有一种公平感，对吧？他们希望与他人以及他们在整个市场中拥有的机会相比得到公平对待。如果他们觉得没有得到公平对待，那将是一个问题。

So, I don't know how that I don't know how that gets sorted out. I do think the math could work for them given given everything you guys just talked about. Uh and and obviously if you uh reduce this down to a race to super intelligence or something along those lines, the size of the prize is is tremendous. And they do have an incredible business that is aided by these advancements uh in a in a big way. And there aren't a whole ton of companies that can go do this.

所以我不知道这如何解决。但我确实认为，考虑到你们刚才所说的一切，这笔账对他们来说是划算的。很明显，如果把这件事简化为一场对超级智能的竞赛，奖品是巨大的。他们确实拥有一项了不起的业务，并因这些进步而得到了极大的帮助。而且没有太多公司能做到这一点。

Yeah. And by the way, Brad, you mentioned that they have the this unfair advantage of this huge printing press, but Apple and Google have the same exact printing press and chose not to do this.

顺便说一句，布拉德，你提到他们拥有这个巨大的印钞机这一不公平的优势，但苹果和谷歌也拥有完全相同的印钞机，但他们选择不这样做。

Yeah. I But but neither of them are controlled by founders. And you know, that's what I was the point I was trying to make. These are the type of bets that I think it's very very difficult for a Google or an Apple to make um for the reasons you mentioned, Bill. you know, can they sell it to the public markets? You know, do they have the type of decision-making in the boardroom that allows this to occur? I mean, at the end of the day, I think at Meta, if Zuckerberg wants to do it, that's what's happening. And that board, you know, gets on board. In fact, he's reshaped the board over the course of the last couple years with folks who are, I think, signed up for this uh for this mission with him.

是的。但他们两人都不是创始人控制的。你知道，这就是我想说的重点。比尔，我认为像谷歌或苹果这样的公司很难做出这类赌注，因为你提到的原因。他们能向公开市场推销吗？他们的董事会中有那样的决策机制允许这种情况发生吗？归根结底，我认为在 Meta，如果扎克伯格想做，事情就会发生。董事会也会同意。事实上，他在过去几年里重塑了董事会，我认为董事会成员都与他站在同一战线上，支持他的使命。

Michael, to your point, that's why I think he reorganized this into the kind of super intelligence division. I think the way they'll try to manage this culturally is to say, listen, there's going to be an elite SEAL team 6 group, which is called super intelligence, and we're going to pay them elite pay because it's good for the entire business. That doesn't mean we're going to inflate everybody else. And in fact, what I think that Meta will do is uh you know, you'll probably see them rolling back like you see with Microsoft, like you see with Amazon. My sense is that companies are generally going to get smaller, right, on the backs of the productivity gains from AI, but they'll redeploy some of those profits into these areas. If you're in the model business and you want to be on the frontier competing in the front, you know, for super intelligence and there only whatever 5 to seven companies that really are in that game, then I think you're going to have to have something similar. Now, in the case of Open AI, it's only 2,800 employees and they're all part of that division effectively.

迈克尔，根据你的观点，这就是为什么我认为他将此重组为“超级智能”部门。我认为他们将通过以下方式来管理文化上的影响：他们会说，将有一个精英“海豹六队”小组，被称为超级智能，我们将向他们支付精英级别的薪酬，因为这对整个业务都有好处。但这并不意味着我们要抬高其他所有人的薪水。事实上，我认为 Meta 会这样做——你知道，你可能会看到他们像微软和亚马逊一样进行缩减。我的感觉是，由于人工智能带来的生产力提升，公司的规模通常会变小，但他们会将部分利润重新部署到这些领域。如果你从事模型业务，并且想站在前沿，为超级智能竞争，而真正参与这场竞争的公司只有五到七家，那么我认为你将不得不采取类似的措施。现在，在 OpenAI 的案例中，他们只有 2800 名员工，他们都有效地属于那个部门。

But you have to really get scale quickly because if you're not bringing in 10, 20, 30, $40 billion of annual revenue, I don't think you can stay in this game. Um, and so the question is whether or not Anthropic and X and OpenAI have a sufficient escape velocity, right, that they can take on this frontal assault by uh by Meta and and and still compete. Um I my sense is OpenAI does my sense is both of those companies do but it's not a long list uh that can compete with that.

但你必须迅速扩大规模，因为如果你没有带来每年 100 亿、200 亿、300 亿、400 亿美元的年收入，我认为你无法继续留在游戏中。所以问题是 Anthropic、X 和 OpenAI 是否拥有足够的逃逸速度，能够抵御 Meta 的正面冲击，并仍然保持竞争力。我的感觉是 OpenAI 可以，我认为这两家公司都可以，但能与之竞争的公司名单不长。

And by the way the the Nat Friedman edition was particularly interesting just with his GitHub background. You know we had talked in the past that Meta had made a couple of hires on the enterprise side and we had heard rumors of you know certain payments when they passed through the the cap on the open models. Um but you know you have to wonder with Nat coming on board if there are more aspirations on the enterprise side.

顺便说一句，纳特·弗里德曼的加入尤其引人注目，考虑到他的 GitHub 背景。你知道，我们以前讨论过 Meta 在企业方面进行了一些招聘，并且我们听说过当他们越过开源模型的上限时，会支付一定的费用。但你不得不怀疑，随着纳特（Nat）的加入，企业方面是否会有更多的期望。

AI驱动的利润扩张与市场走势

Yeah I I it's a great point and certainly one of it creates some optionality there. Hey Michael, question for you. You know on this related topic of productivity gains from leveraging AI and kind of what you're seeing at Dell. Um we've talked on this podcast what we call the golden age of margin expansion. you know, this idea that you're seeing AI is uh certainly reacelerated your top line in a pretty dramatic way. Um, but doing that at a lot of companies at the same time, you're able to do more with less. Um, is that overstated or do you think that we're in this phase over the next 3, four, 5 years where generally as an economy and certainly within a lot of companies that they're going to be able to, you know, have their top lines grow faster than their operating costs? because of AI.

是的，这是一个很好的观点，这确实带来了一些选择性。嘿，迈克尔，有个问题想问你。关于利用人工智能带来的生产力提升以及你在戴尔看到的类似情况。我们在这个播客中谈论过我们所说的“利润扩张的黄金时代”，你知道，就是人工智能正在以非常戏剧性的方式加速你的顶线增长。但是，在很多公司同时做到这一点，你就能用更少的资源做更多的事。这是否被夸大了？你是否认为在未来三到五年里，作为一个经济体，尤其是在许多公司内部，他们能够实现顶线增长速度快于运营成本增长？因为人工智能？

It's it's absolutely real, Brad, and we are doing it. We know of other companies that are doing it. And I think, you know, maybe only 10% of companies, large companies have figured this out and the other 90% are sort of a bit confused at this point. But you know if I step back and look at this you know 10% productivity improvements pretty easy 20% uh you know reasonably common sightings of 30% or 40%. Those are massive numbers. If you sort of step back and you think about this, you know, you got a $114 trillion global economy, right? In 2025 and services economy is two-thirds of that. You know, if we believe that a 10% improvement is possible in productivity, if you just keep it simple and you say 10% improvement, uh, that's worth 10 trillion dollars, right?

布拉德，这是绝对真实的，我们正在做到。我们知道其他公司也在这样做。我认为，也许只有 10% 的大公司已经搞明白了，而其他 90% 的公司目前有点困惑。但如果你退后一步看，10% 的生产力提升是很容易实现的，20% 的提升也是比较常见的，30% 或 40% 的提升都是巨大的数字。如果你退后一步思考，你知道，我们有一个 114 万亿美元的全球经济，对吧？2025 年，服务业占了其中的三分之二。如果你相信生产力可以提高 10%，如果我们简单点说 10% 的提升，那价值 10 万亿美元，对吧？

And so uh the amount of investment that is occurring today in AI could be uh quite a bit less than is really justified. I mean if if if if if if we we believe in a 10 to 20% improvement and I don't say that lightly because that's like that's like an enormous thing if it were to occur. But let's just stick with this for a second. If we had a 20 10 to 20% improvement, the investment in AI should be more on the order of two to four trillion dollars per year.

因此，今天在人工智能领域的投资量可能比它真正应得的要少得多。我的意思是，如果我们相信有 10% 到 20% 的提升——我不是轻率地说出这个数字，因为如果发生，这将是一件巨大的事情。但让我们坚持这一点。如果我们有 10% 到 20% 的提升，那么对人工智能的投资应该在每年两到四万亿美元的范围内。

Yeah. Yeah. And and that's not that's not where we are. Uh it's a lot less than that. So, uh, you know, uh, I don't want to get too ahead of myself here, but but I I I do think there is a big change that is occurring and we're just at the beginning of it and it's going to affect every part of uh our our world.

是的。是的。而我们还没有达到那个水平。要少得多。所以，我不想跑得太快，但我确实认为一场巨大的变革正在发生，我们才刚刚开始，它将影响我们世界的方方面面。

AI生产力增速对比PC和互联网时代

Well, you you you have particular standing here, Michael, right? You saw the productivity gain that came from a computer on every desktop. You saw the productivity. That was the '90s. That we were talking about that the '90s. That was fun. You saw the productivity gain from the internet. And now you're two years into observing this. Is the are the productivity gains from this going to be as big or bigger than what we saw from personal computers in the internet?

迈克尔，你在这方面有特殊的发言权，对吧？你看到了电脑普及带来的生产力提升。你看到了我们刚才谈论的 90 年代的生产力提升，那很有趣。你看到了互联网带来的生产力提升。现在你观察这个现象已经两年了。这次 AI 带来的生产力提升会像个人电脑和互联网时代一样大，甚至更大吗？

Oh, it's far bigger. It's far bigger. Yeah. I I I feel 98% confident that it's far bigger than than than the PC. Uh the internet.

哦，它大得多。大得多。是的。我有百分之九十八的信心，它比 PC 和互联网带来的提升要大得多。

What about the internet?

那互联网呢？

Yeah. I mean, so of course all these build on each other, right? Yes, it's compounding but this is this is this is bigger because it is essentially all knowledge work and uh I think I think it's an expansion of the pie right it's it's really easy to figure out what will be more efficient and how you can reduce costs uh but you know if you go back 20 years ago it was very hard to see where the new jobs would be. I think we're in a similar situation here as well. Uh I do I do think it will be expansionary for the overall economy and for prosperity and for well-being and human potential broadly across all domains whether it's in education, health, societal outcomes etc. Uh but yeah, this feels this feels bigger.

是的。当然，这一切都是相互叠加的，对吧？是的，它在复利增长，但这次更大，因为它本质上涉及所有的知识工作。我认为这是蛋糕的扩张。很容易算出什么会更有效率，如何降低成本。但是，如果你回到 20 年前，很难看到新的工作机会在哪里。我认为我们现在也处于类似的情况。我确实认为它将有利于整体经济、繁荣、福祉和广泛的社会潜能，无论是在教育、医疗、社会成果等方面。但总的来说，这感觉更大。

I remember in 2001 2002, Michael, some companies that were early to, for example, Google, they figured out how to gain, you know, like I think a booking.com, right? They figured out how to arbitrage the internet and Google to build this giant business, right? And so I would say like they figured out productivity gains before the next person and and and that was hugely advantageous. And when you say that only 10% of companies are are leveraging this today, it kind of sounds like the same thing, like the early companies are really there, but there's a huge amount yet to come.

迈克尔，我记得在 2001、2002 年，一些公司，比如最早使用谷歌的公司，他们找到了利用互联网和谷歌的方式来建立一个巨大的业务，比如 Booking.com，对吧？他们比其他人更早地发现了生产力的提升，这对他们非常有利。当你提到今天只有 10% 的公司在利用人工智能时，听起来很像当时的情况，早期公司已经走在前面，但未来还有巨大的潜力。

大型企业转型的紧迫性

Well, you know, I think I think a I think about the big companies in the world. I'm talking like, you know, 10 billion plus revenue companies, uh, you know, uh, 50 billion, 100 billion plus revenue companies. These companies have an incumbency of sorts, right? They have data, they have customers, they have brands, they have IP, etc. But if they don't move quickly to reimagine their businesses given all this technology, they will be destroyed by new companies that come in with a totally clean slate.

你知道，我想的是世界上那些大公司。我指的是年收入 100 亿以上、500 亿、1000 亿美元以上的公司。这些公司在某种程度上都有既得利益，对吧？他们有数据、客户、品牌、知识产权等。但是，如果他们不迅速利用所有这些技术来重塑他们的业务，他们将被那些带着全新起点进入的新公司所摧毁。

And you know, that's you can already see signs of that happening. So uh I think this is all going to play out you know in the next 3 to 5 years uh and it will become sort of an urgent priority for companies to re reimagine themselves and uh you know what what we've done at at Dell is is uh you know our our team knows this because we we talk about it all the time internally.

你知道，你已经能看到迹象了。所以我认为这一切将在未来三到五年内发展，并成为公司重塑自我的一个紧迫的优先事项。在戴尔，我们的团队都知道这一点，因为我们内部经常讨论。

That was I think it was almost two years ago. I stood up in front of a group of our leaders and I said that five years from then, that would be three years from now, we're going to have a new competitor and that new competitor is going to be in every business that we're in except they're going to be faster and more efficient and more capable and they're going to put us out of business. And the only way we're going to prevent that is we're going to become that company. And and this is how we're going to do it. and I sort of laid out our best guess as to how to do that, you know, two years ago. Uh we're pretty far, you know, uh into that path and well on our way and it's working, but it's not an easy thing to do, right? This is a this is sort of gut-wrenching stuff to reinvent, reimagine. We've had to do it many times. If you don't do it, you just go out of business. So, and that's no fun. So, we're not doing that. and and and not everybody wants to do it, you know, it's it's uh true. It's hard.

大概快两年前，我站在我们领导层面前说，从那时起五年（也就是三年后），我们将有一个新的竞争对手，这个新的竞争对手将进入我们所处的每一个业务领域，但他们会更快、更高效、更有能力，他们会把我们挤出市场。我们防止这种情况发生的唯一方法就是我们自己变成那家公司。我两年前大致勾勒了如何做到这一点。我们已经走在实现这个目标的道路上了，并且进展顺利，但这不是一件容易的事，对吧？这是一种痛苦的自我革新、自我重塑。我们已经这样做了很多次。如果你不这样做，你就会倒闭。所以，这不是乐趣所在。我们不会走那条路。而且不是每个人都想这样做，这是事实，这很困难。

戴尔服务器业务的爆炸式增长与AI集群部署

Yeah. You're you're I was wondering if you could expand on that a little bit. So, your server division is your fastest growing division. You've you know, we've talked about on this podcast some of the big wins you've had as part of large AI clusters. How did how did you get Dell in a position to be part of that next wave? And what are the key what's the key value add from your products in those large deployments?

是的。我想知道你是否可以对此做一些扩展。你的服务器部门是你增长最快的部门。我们在这个播客中讨论过，作为大型 AI 集群的一部分，你们取得了一些巨大的成功。戴尔是如何处于这个新浪潮中的一员的？在那些大型部署中，你们的产品提供了哪些关键的价值增值？

Yeah, so last year our server networking business grew 58% uh year-over-year. Um in the first quarter we had uh we received 12.1 billion in AI orders. Uh and by the way, our shipments uh for all of last year in AI servers were about $10 billion. So So we Soion two years ago were two billion.

是的，去年我们的服务器网络业务同比增长了 58%。在第一季度，我们收到了 121 亿美元的 AI 订单。顺便说一句，我们去年全年发货的 AI 服务器大约价值 100 亿美元。所以，我们两年前的（收入）是 20 亿美元。

Yeah, it was it was it was not very much two years ago. So we we took orders in the first quarter for over 12 billion and last year we shipped about 10 billion. So this is growing super fast. And now we have a backlog of of uh a little over 14 billion. So what happened? Well, um you know, we we we're already the leader in servers. Um we we kind of saw the GPU thing and it's a it's a combination of things. I mean, when when Nvidia releases a reference design, um it it's kind of a reference design. It doesn't really work.

是的，两年前真的不算多。所以我们在第一季度接到的订单超过 120 亿美元，而去年我们发货了约 100 亿美元。所以这增长得非常快。现在我们的积压订单略超过 140 亿美元。发生了什么？嗯，你知道，我们已经是服务器领域的领导者。我们看到了 GPU 的趋势，这是多种因素的结合。当英伟达发布参考设计时，它只是一个参考设计，它实际上并不能工作。

You know, we love Nvidia, but but uh you know, somebody's got to make all this stuff. And so we uh tons of tons of engineering and obviously there's a logistics the supply chain building these 100,000 plus GPU clusters and making them work reliably is super complex. So it's a combination of engineering uh operations um you know we we often will help with the financing of these with our uh Dell financial services and uh you know this the scale of these things is enormous. me right we talked about this at Deltech world right now we're deploying these systems that will produce uh you know deliver more than 50 trillion tokens per month and if you put that in the context of Google statements or Microsoft statements I mean this is massive scale uh systems and uh yeah I don't think there are a ton of companies that that are able to to to do this and have them work reliably.

我们很喜欢英伟达，但你知道，总得有人来制造所有这些东西。所以我们投入了大量的工程设计，当然还有物流和供应链。构建这些超过 10 万个 GPU 的集群并确保它们可靠运行非常复杂。所以它是工程、运营的结合。我们经常用我们的戴尔金融服务帮助这些项目的融资。你知道，这些东西的规模是巨大的。我们上次在戴尔技术世界大会上讨论过，我们现在正在部署的系统，每月能处理超过 50 万亿个 Token，如果把它放在谷歌或微软的陈述的背景下，这真的是大规模的系统。我不知道有多少公司能做到这一点并让它们可靠运行。

交付GB300系统与需求预测

And Jensen has said, you know, you guys have distinguished yourself against your competitors, um, other ODMs like Foxcon or Quanta, etc. Um, you know, you've been first to market. You're launching the GB300's right now. You're partner.

詹森（Jensen）说过，你们在竞争对手中脱颖而出，比如富士康或广达（Quanta）等其他 ODM 厂商。你们是首批上市的。你们现在正在推出 GB300，你是合作伙伴。

Yeah, we delivered the first GB300's uh, a couple days ago to uh, Core Weave. We announced that we actually have delivered another GP00 GP300 system to another customer. Uh I don't think we've disclosed who that is yet, but um informed listeners of this podcast will probably guess. So, so the the thing that I'm, you know, a year ago, we were all sitting around and talking about the ups and downs of the overbuild in 2000, right, around the internet. And you know, and and and yet when I look at the trajectory that we're on, right, I saw Mike Intrur on, you know, CNBC today and he said, "Listen, we're still underestimating the amount of demand that's out there in the world."

是的，我们几天前向 CoreWeave 交付了首批 GB300。我们宣布我们实际上已经向另一家客户交付了另一个 GP300 系统，但我认为我们还没有透露是谁，但听这个播客的听众可能会猜到。一年前，我们都在坐着谈论 2000 年互联网泡沫时期的过度建设的起伏。然而，当我看到我们目前的轨迹时，我今天在 CNBC 上看到了迈克·因特鲁（Mike Intrur），他说：“听着，我们仍然低估了世界上的需求量。”

And when when he says it or when you say it or when Jensen says it, in some ways people would argue it's self- serving. Of course, you guys are going to say that. That's your business. You're going to you're going to tell everybody your business is great. But you're known as a very sober guy who tells it like it is. And what I want you to do is reflect a little bit on the comparison between this and the period in early 2000 when we did get overbuilt, right? And you know the as the saying goes, every shortage ends up in a glut. Why are we not near that point yet today uh in this market?

当他或你说或詹森说这话时，在某种程度上人们会认为这是在为自己服务。当然，你们会这么说。这是你们的业务。你们会告诉大家你们的业务很棒。但你以一个非常清醒、直言不讳的人而闻名。我想让你反思一下，将目前的情况与 2000 年初我们确实出现过度建设的时期进行比较。你知道，俗话说，每个短缺最终都会变成过剩。为什么我们今天在这个市场还没有接近那个点呢？

Well, I mean you you guys as students of the market can go back and you know uh sort of review what the multiples were on earnings and cash flow you know around that time. We're nowhere near that for the most part. Right. U but if we go back to the uh underlying activity here uh it's all about the tokens, right? And as we go from basic queries to uh test time compute to deep reasoning to agents and multi- agent systems, the number of tokens just explodes. And what are we talking about in token? When we're talking about tokens, we're talking about knowledge, right?

嗯，作为市场的研究者，你们可以回顾一下当时市盈率和现金流的倍数是多少。在大多数情况下，我们根本没有达到那个水平。但如果我们回顾这里的底层活动，一切都与 Token 有关，对吧？当我们从基本的查询转向测试时间计算、深度推理，再到代理和多代理系统时，Token 的数量呈爆炸式增长。当我们谈论 Token 时，我们在谈论知识，对吧？

Exactly um you know I don't know about you but I'm using these tools like 50 times a day as my thought partner to solve problems and uh you know quell my curiosity and uh you know my usage is skyrocketing and uh you know often multiple models and it's going out there and querying all these websites doing calculations for me and helping me solve problems you know faster than I ever could in in the past and uh you know the this this I think it's just at the beginning right and uh the substrate for all of this of course is compute and data right so we love that at Dell Technologies because that's what we do and so there is a there's just a ton of growth here I think It will also be um highly distributed. I think it will be uh you know it'll occur in devices. It'll occur in the edge. It'll occur uh you know in all sorts of places and it it does does feel like we're we're still a lot closer to the beginning here.

没错。你知道，我不知道你怎么样，但我每天使用这些工具多达 50 次，作为我的思考伙伴来解决问题，平息我的好奇心。我的使用量正在飙升，而且通常是多个模型，它在外面查询所有这些网站，为我进行计算，帮助我解决问题的速度比以往任何时候都快。我认为这只是个开始，而这一切的底层基础当然是算力和数据，这对戴尔科技来说是好事，因为这就是我们的业务。所以我认为这里有大量的增长，而且我认为它也会是高度分散的。它会发生在设备上，发生在边缘，发生在各种地方，感觉我们仍然非常接近起点。

本地部署AI的趋势

What can you share about onprim AI deployments? Michael, are you seeing anything interesting there?

迈克尔，关于本地部署 AI，你能分享一些有趣的事情吗？

Yeah. So, we we in in the last year um you know delivered a little over 3,000 of these Dell AI factories and you know those are increasingly to enterprise and commercial customers that want to bring the AI to their data not the data to the AI.

是的。在过去的一年里，我们交付了 3000 多个戴尔 AI 工厂，这些越来越多地提供给希望将 AI 引入他们数据而不是将数据导入 AI 的企业和商业客户。

Yeah. And you know there's just a ton of data that uh is still on prem and being generated on prem. And it turns out you know these large models are fantastic but you don't always need the largest model to solve every problem. A lot of the corporate use cases are perfectly uh done with smaller models and open source models. And so you see this enormous proliferation and hugging face of models of all shapes and sizes, tons of cascading innovations. And so I think this is going to be highly distributed. Uh and we're definitely seeing growth in onrem and and coloss are also a big deal. uh you know because many customers don't want to have the data center themselves and so they'll they'll put it in a collocation facility and we've also adopted the consumption type model so you can pay on a you know usage type basis.

是的。仍然有大量的数据在本地，并且在本地生成。事实证明，这些大型模型很棒，但并非所有问题都需要最大的模型来解决。许多企业用例完全可以通过更小的模型和开源模型来完成。因此，你在 Hugging Face 上看到了各种形状和大小的模型的巨大普及，以及大量的连锁创新。所以我认为这将是高度分散的。我们确实看到了本地部署和托管（colocation）的增长，因为许多客户不想自己拥有数据中心，所以他们会将其放在托管设施中，我们也采用了按使用量付费的模式。

芯片竞争格局与市场情绪

what is your you know when you look at just kind of the relative distribution between you know kind of the custom AS6 world what you see happening across you know folks like AMD and Nvidia um you know there's obviously a lot of chatter you have an interesting perspective both as a consumer of these products also as a builder and distributor of the products um is is there are there any you know pending big changes or as you look ahead over the course of the next year or two that's probably as far ahead as you and see does it look like the relative landscape is stable or are there big breakthroughs coming that may unseat somebody like like Nvidia

当你审视 AMD 和 Nvidia 等公司在定制 ASIC 世界中的相对分布情况时，你看到了什么？你知道，有很多议论。你既是这些产品的消费者，也是产品的构建者和分销商，你有一个独特的视角。在你看来，未来一两年内，是否存在任何重大的即将到来的变化？相对格局看起来稳定吗？还是会有重大的突破可能取代英伟达的地位？

you know Nvidia is in a great spot I mean to your question I think uh for the larger um model companies and hyperscalers uh certainly custom AS6 are gaining a lot of share and when you have control over the workload and you can uh you know take the time to optimize your workload. Um you know that's certainly going to be a part of what occurs in the infrastructure but it's a it's not a large number of customers you were talking about the number of companies developing models. It's sort of that number of customers but they're large right as you've seen with Google and Meta and others. uh who are who are deploying the AS6, you know, maybe just in the to be respectful of time, Bill, um I could talk to Michael for uh you know, for hours about this particular subject, but maybe do you know, one of the people I talked to when the market's going wild is is is Michael.

英伟达处于绝佳的位置。对于大型模型公司和超大规模用户来说，定制 ASIC 肯定正在获得大量份额。当你控制工作负载并有时间优化工作负载时，这无疑会成为基础设施的一部分。但这并不是很多客户，你刚才谈到开发模型的公司数量。就是这些客户的数量，但他们规模很大，就像你看到的谷歌和 Meta 等公司正在部署 ASIC 一样。比尔，为了尊重时间，我可能可以和迈克尔就这个特定主题谈上几个小时，但也许，你知道，当市场疯狂时，我与之交谈的人之一就是迈克尔。

Um, you know, we certainly saw that earlier this year. Um, you know, it's pretty incredible to see the snapback that we've seen out of the NASDAQ, the S&P. I think the NASDAQ is now up 32% off of its bottom uh 2 months ago. Just as a data point, I think I think Dowell got as low as I don't know 75 72 bucks. It's back at 120 bucks now. That is an incredible bounce off the bottom, but it's still basically up I don't know 5 or 10% on the year. It's not like it's in this astronomical range when you look at kind of year-to date or over the course of the last 12 months. And and so when I look at the markets and I want to get both, you know, your read on this is as well, Michael.

你知道，我们今年早些时候确实看到了这种情况。看到纳斯达克和标准普尔的反弹非常惊人。我认为纳斯达克较两个月前的低点已经上涨了 32%。作为一个数据点，我想戴尔（Dowell）的股价最低跌至 72 或 75 美元，现在又回到了 120 美元。这是从底部反弹的惊人涨幅，但与年初至今或过去 12 个月相比，它基本上只上涨了 5% 或 10%。当你看待市场时，我想听听你俩的看法，迈克尔。

市场概览与泡沫担忧

Here we are. We have the the NASDAQ and the Q the Q's and the S&P on an all-time highs. Bitcoin Bitcoin's near an all-time high. The VIX is back to 15 or 16, basically where it was in February. uh despite you know uh all of the things around uh tariffs the 10-year everybody talks about this you know the great debt spiral that we have in the country but the 10ear has been between 3.7 and 4.7 for the last two years it's at 4.2 to kind of smack dab in the middle if not at the lower end of that range. Um, you know, and then you see companies like TSM and Nvidia and Microsoft, Oracle, Booking.com, Uber, Dash, they're at all-time highs, but notwithstanding the fact that they're at all-time highs. You have Tesla down over 20% on the year, Apple down 15% on the year, Google's down on the year, um, Amazon's basically flat on the year. So you have a lot of dispersion in the market when you look at the at at the market. Um you know does it feel to you again like we're in this bubble territory? Does it feel uh as uh a company that is that it's kind of accurately reflecting set aside your stock. I don't want you to comment on your stock. I'm just talking about the mar market at large. Are the US markets higher in three to five years or are they are you know or are they not given given where we sit today?

现在我们处于这个位置：纳斯达克、QQQ 和标普指数都处于历史高位。比特币接近历史高位。VIX 回落到 15 或 16，基本上回到了二月份的水平，尽管有关于关税的各种因素。人们常谈论的 10 年期国债收益率——我们国家巨大的债务螺旋——在过去两年里一直徘徊在 3.7% 到 4.7% 之间，现在在 4.2% 左右，处于区间的中间，如果不是偏低的话。然后你看到 TSM、英伟达、微软、甲骨文、Booking.com、优步、Dash 等公司都处于历史高位。尽管如此，特斯拉今年下跌了 20% 以上，苹果今年下跌了 15%，谷歌今年也下跌了，亚马逊今年基本持平。所以当你观察市场时，你会发现很大的分化。你觉得我们又处于泡沫区域了吗？对于像你这样的公司来说，这是否准确地反映了情况（抛开你的股票不谈，我不想让你评论你的股票）。我只是谈论整个市场。考虑到我们今天的位置，美国市场在三到五年后是会更高，还是不会？

I would bet they're higher. I would bet that more and more companies figure out how to, you know, grow their businesses. You know, I talked earlier about the productivity and efficiency. I think the ultimate benefit is going to come from the speed at which companies transform and the growth that they're able to create. That's certainly how we see it in our business. And um yeah, I think I think you know a lot of these companies will be able to compound their earnings on a double-digit basis and the market largely you know overall indices will will become more valuable.

我会赌它们会更高。我会赌越来越多的公司会找到发展业务的方法。你知道，我之前谈到了生产力和效率。我认为最终的好处将来自于公司转型的速度以及它们能够创造的增长。我们自己的业务就是这样看的。是的，我认为很多公司将能够实现两位数的盈利增长，而整体市场指数的价值也会增加。

市场分化与AI带来的加速度

Yeah, it's a you know I do think that this moment in time we're seeing a lot of dispersion. And I mentioned it, right? Some companies being down this year, some companies up a lot. I really think the companies that are leveraging AI that are in a position to leverage it and to capture that margin expansion, we're going to see a reaceleration. And we've heard this out of folks like McDermott and Shredar and Jensen, you know at all these companies, how they're reacelerating topline, but they're not adding people, right? That, you know, it's kind of net flat. We see this out of Uber. We see it out of Dell when the markets dipped down. Uh, our share buyback program went into went into high gear, you know, right? And we bought back 22 we bought back 22 million shares. So, you know, stock worked out well for you.

是的，我确实认为在这个时刻，我们看到了很多分化。我提到了，对吧？一些公司今年下跌，一些公司大幅上涨。我真的认为那些正在利用人工智能、有能力利用人工智能并抓住利润扩张的公司，我们将看到加速增长。我们从麦克德莫特（McDermott）、施耐德（Shredar）和詹森（Jensen）那里都听到了类似的消息，他们都在提高顶线收入，但却没有增加人手，对吧？这基本持平。我们在优步看到了这一点，在市场下跌时我们在戴尔也看到了这一点。我们的股票回购计划进入了高速运转状态，我们回购了 2200 万股。所以，股票对你来说表现不错。

As I look at this flight path, we just we just landed, you know, the reconciliation bill. So, there was a lot of uncertainty in the world to start the year. One was what was going to happen? Was this reconciliation bill going to pass? Now, it's passed. So we have tax predictability. Right? You have an extension of the existing tax regime and then you have the no tax on tips, the no tax on overtime. So you have this incremental stimulus now coming from the reconciliation bill. On top of that, you know, tariffs while still up in the air, the market kind of is digested the tariff stuff, right? and absent some big blow up between us and China um you know if we follow the Besson accords that they reached in Switzerland um and then reiterated in London it seems like the big pieces of the tariff puzzle are falling in place and then on the rate front the market is estimating that the next move is down whether we're going to have one or two rate cuts you know at the end of the year um is is the question some people the Fed is saying we're on hold we're going to wait and see whether or not inflation reacelerates this summer due to tariffs.

当我审视这个轨迹时，我们刚刚通过了预算调整法案。所以年初世界存在很多不确定性，其中之一就是会发生什么？这项预算调整法案会通过吗？现在它通过了。所以我们有了税收的可预测性，对吧？现有税收制度得到了延长，然后是小费和加班费免税。所以你从预算调整法案中得到了这种增量的刺激。除此之外，关税虽然仍悬而未决，但市场已经消化了关税问题，对吧？除非中美之间出现重大的爆炸性事件，如果我们遵循他们在瑞士达成并在伦敦重申的贝桑共识（Besson accords），那么关税难题的大部分都已就位。然后在利率方面，市场估计下一步是降息，是今年年底会降息一次还是两次是问题所在。一些人说美联储处于观望状态，他们要等到夏天看看通胀是否会因关税而重新加速。

So, that's what everybody's eyes are on over the course of the next 6 to 8 weeks. Does core PCE tick up, you know, due to those tariffs? I'm taking the the under on that, but we're going to have to wait and see. And then on fundamentals, I think what we're hearing from companies, and this is where the rubber meets the road, earnings, I think we had 85% of companies beat in the S&P 500 in the quarter. And if you just go through and look at keywords, it was accelerating, it was AI, it was reinventing our business. There is a real growth um you know feeling in the market and among these companies. And so from our perspective and we try to uh give people an indication of where we are. I mean, I was as negative, as you well know, Michael, um, early in the year, I was as negative as I've been in 10 years because I thought if we were going down the path of Navarro and $2 trillion of tariffs that it was all, you know, every all bets were off. That was a scary path, you know, and and you know we talked about how if they went down that path, I thought they would reverse course because it wouldn't work, you know. And this I think this is a very iterative team that will experiment, lay some stuff out there. Not all of it's going to work. There'll be some bad ideas and then they'll reverse course.

所以，未来六到八周，所有人的目光都集中在这个问题上。核心个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）是否会因这些关税而上升？我倾向于认为不会，但我们必须拭目以待。然后在基本面上，我认为我们从公司听到的消息，这是真章所在，盈利方面，我认为标普 500 指数中 85% 的公司在本季度超出了预期。如果你去查看关键词，它们是加速、人工智能、重塑业务。市场上和这些公司中确实有一种增长的感觉。所以从我们的角度来看，我们试图向人们表明我们的立场。你知道，迈克尔，我今年早些时候非常悲观，是我十年来最悲观的时候，因为我认为如果我们走纳瓦罗（Navarro）和 2 万亿美元关税的道路，那一切都会失控。那是一条可怕的道路，你知道，我们讨论过如果他们走那条路，我认为他们会掉头，因为那行不通。我认为这是一个非常迭代的团队，会进行实验，推出一些东西。并非所有都会奏效，会有一些坏主意，然后他们会掉头。

政策风险：关税与AI管制

Yeah. I hope we don't we did do that. I hope we don't snatch uh defeat from the jaws of victory here with with policy though. You know, I think you know going back into the tariff game um some type of bold confrontation with China um and you know our AI policy. I mean, one thing we didn't talk about in this past week, the the AI moratorum got removed from the bill and we're going to have 70 state laws in the United States, which is not great for AI startups. So, anyway, I hope we don't I hope we don't I hope we don't I hope bad policy doesn't upset what would be an otherwise uh very potent landscape based on AI.

是的。我希望我们不会那样做。我希望我们在政策上不要将胜利拱手让人。你知道，我一直认为，重回关税战，与中国进行某种大胆的对抗，以及我们的人工智能政策。本周我们没有谈到的一件事是，人工智能暂停令从法案中被移除，美国将出台 70 部州法律，这对 AI 初创公司来说不太好。所以，我希望糟糕的政策不会扰乱基于人工智能的、本应非常有利的格局。

Yeah, fully agree. I I think it's one thing that the three of us are in violent agreement on. One of the things that's moved this country forward for the last three decades is we've led globally in technology. And we've led globally in technology because we've allowed our best technologies to move freely around the world and to compete and to win. This is the first time since I've been in this business that we're talking about export controls and AI diffusion laws that are restricting the ability of our technology to go compete and win. Right. And there's both the question mark as it relates to inside of China, but also the question mark outside of China.

是的，我完全同意。我们三个人在这个问题上意见完全一致。过去三十年推动国家前进的事情之一是我们一直在技术领域全球领先。我们之所以能全球领先，是因为我们允许我们最好的技术在全球自由流通、竞争和获胜。自从我进入这个行业以来，这是第一次我们谈论出口管制和限制我们技术走向世界竞争和获胜能力的 AI 扩散法。对吧？这不仅关系到中国境内的问题，也关系到中国以外的问题。

And while we've seen the repeal of the Biden diffusion um uh rule, what I'm told is that no new licenses have been granted for uh you know for distribution of AI technologies around the world despite all the discussion around this. So, it's critical that Washington follows through and that we accelerate diffusion around the world of the entire American AI stack that we don't regulate that out of Washington. And then I think there are some legitimate regulations that you can have as it pertains to China. But even there, I would much rather let our deprecated chips out of Nvidia go compete against Huawei in China. keep the developer mind share in China because it's going to make it easier for us to win globally and elsewhere around the world. Um, and I think it's important that that Michael, myself, everybody else, Bill, you are those voices are being heard. We're not out of the woods on this by a long shot.

尽管我们看到了拜登扩散规则的废除，但我被告知，尽管对此进行了所有讨论，但尚未批准向世界各地分发人工智能技术的新许可证。因此，华盛顿必须跟进，并且我们必须加速整个美国人工智能技术栈在全球范围内的扩散，不能让华盛顿通过监管扼杀它。然后，我认为在涉及中国的问题上，你可以有一些合法的监管。但即使在那边，我也更愿意让英伟达那些被淘汰的芯片去中国与华为竞争，保住我们在中国开发者的心智份额，因为这将使我们在全球其他地方更容易取胜。我认为迈克尔、我自己以及在座的各位，包括比尔，你们的声音都听到了，这一点很重要。我们离摆脱困境还远着呢。

技能移民的重要性

By the way, you you reminded me of one other thing I'd just like to harp on, which is the skilled immigration piece. So uh someone highlighted to me that they made like the huge wanted poster of all the people that Meta has borrowed from other companies like like 60 or 70% of them were were of Chinese origin. And as I understand it right now, you know, there are PhD students or are candidates in China that can't get visas and get in um to the United States right now. And we go back to what Trump said on Allin that he wanted to staple a visa to every diploma. I'd really like to get, not that we're in charge, but I'd love to get that conversation going again. Um, it would be very powerful for the country to increase skilled immigration. Um, and it feels like we might be decreasing it.

顺便说一句，你让我想起了我想要强调的另一件事，那就是技术移民问题。有人向我指出，Meta 从其他公司挖来的那些人，他们制作了巨大的“通缉海报”，其中 60% 到 70% 是中国血统的人。据我了解，目前中国有博士生或候选人现在无法获得美国签证。我们回想一下特朗普在 All-in 节目中说他想给每个文凭都附上签证。我真的很希望，虽然我们不掌权，但我希望再次开启这场对话。增加技术移民对国家来说将非常有益。而且感觉我们可能正在减少技术移民。

Yeah, absolutely agree. And and to your point, Brad, I mean, if if we don't aggressively work to, you know, sell our technologies around the world, uh, other countries are going to do that. And you know reminded of uh story long time ago. The defense department had this thing called MTOPS and it was a it was a uh Bill might remember this but it was it was like a restriction on how fast the computer was that you know you had to get approval from the government and to sell it. And uh I was in this group of technology CEOs and we we went we went to the Pentagon to talk to the generals and uh and before we went we went to Toys R Us store and we bought a PlayStation.

是的，我完全同意。布拉德，正如你所说，如果我们不积极地向世界各地推广我们的技术，其他国家就会这样做。让我想起很久以前的一个故事。国防部有一个叫 MTOPS 的东西，它是一个——比尔可能还记得——它限制了计算机的速度，你需要政府批准才能出售。我当时在一个科技 CEO 小组中，我们去了五角大楼与将军们交谈。在去之前，我们去了玩具反斗城（Toys R Us）买了一台 PlayStation。

[Laughter]

（笑声）

and we took it out of the box and we brought it to the the Pentagon, you know, this big room and we, you know, set the PlayStation down on there and we said, you know, this exceeds the MTOP uh restriction, right? Uh but unfortunately, you know, it's not it's made by a Japanese company and so, you know, it doesn't follow under the rules, so anybody can buy it. It's it's also $399, right? So, uh, you guys think you're going to control the access to this thing or little things that, you know, move easily, uh, you're kind of fooling yourselves.

然后我们把它从盒子里拿出来，带到五角大楼一个大房间里，把 PlayStation 放在那里，说，你知道，这超过了 MTOP 的限制，对吧？但不幸的是，它是一家日本公司制造的，所以它不受规则约束，任何人都可以购买。它还 399 美元，对吧？所以，你们以为你们能控制对这种东西或能轻松移动的小东西的访问权？你们有点自欺欺人了。

Yeah.

是的。

And so, we have to come up with more intelligent ways to restrict access to the most advanced technologies. And um often times you just get all kinds of unintended consequences with these rules that are created and it doesn't create the outcome that that uh the government was originally looking for.

因此，我们必须找到更智能的方法来限制对最先进技术的访问。而且，这些制定的规则往往会带来各种意想不到的后果，而这并不能带来政府最初想要的结果。

总结与对“投资美国法案”的肯定

Well, and and I think that's a a good way to wrap. Um Michael, it's awesome having you here. I I I wanted to say, you know, Michael and myself, Darasher Shahi, David Solomon from Goldman, Renee Hos from ARM, uh, you know, uh, Bill McDermott from, uh, uh, Service Now, and and a group of us were at the White House, uh, a few weeks ago to testify on the Invest America Act, and Michael kicked it off, and, uh, if you haven't seen the video of it, we'll include it here. you should watch it. But he reminded everybody, captivated the entire room.

好吧，我想这是一个很好的结束方式。迈克尔，很高兴你在这里。我想说的是，我和迈克尔、Darasher Shahi、高盛的 David Solomon、ARM 的 Renee Hos、ServiceNow 的比尔·麦克德莫特以及我们中的一些人几周前在白宫就“投资美国法案”作证。迈克尔首先发言，如果你还没看过视频，我们会把它加在这里，你应该看看。他提醒了所有人，吸引了整个房间的注意力。

We view this initiative as a powerful platform for philanthropic innovation aimed at helping children thrive wherever they come from, particularly those families who have been historically left behind. Mr. President, you articulated it perfectly. These Invest America accounts will give every new American child a genuine opportunity to participate in history's greatest engine of economic growth, the American economy.

我们认为这项倡议是一个强大的慈善创新平台，旨在帮助所有背景的儿童蓬勃发展，特别是那些历史上被落在后面的家庭。总统先生，您的阐述非常完美。“投资美国”账户将为每个新生的美国儿童提供一个真正的机会，让他们参与到历史上最伟大的经济增长引擎——美国经济中来。

These in the funds in these accounts invested in American enterprise and innovation will grow over time into substantial nest eggs providing support for education, home ownership, and starting families. The ability of families, friends, benefactors, and employers to match the government's generosity amplifies the life-changing potential of this initiative. Thank you, Mr. President, for your visionary leadership on this critical issue.

这些账户中的资金投资于美国企业和创新，随着时间的推移将增长为可观的积蓄，为教育、住房和组建家庭提供支持。家庭、朋友、捐赠者和雇主能够匹配政府的慷慨，放大了这项倡议改变人生的潜力。感谢总统先生在这一关键问题上展现出的远见卓识的领导力。

These Invest America accounts will profoundly impact countless young Americans, ensuring they truly benefit from what Abraham Lincoln described as the right of every American, the right to rise. As I sit here on on the Fourth of July weekend, you know, I'm just I'm I'm super grateful to you, Michael. You did a huge service to the country by helping us get the Invest America Act passed.

这些“投资美国”账户将深刻影响无数年轻的美国人，确保他们真正受益于亚伯拉罕·林肯所描述的每个美国人的权利——向上流动的权利。当我坐在独立日周末时，我非常感谢你，迈克尔。你通过帮助我们通过《投资美国法案》为国家做出了巨大的贡献。

And I think everything that we just talked about here, including allowing American technologies to go compete. Remember, these Invest America accounts are only worth something if America does great, right? And the fact of the matter is Warren Buff Warren Buffett has said Warren Buffett has said the smartest thing he did was just bet on America. He bet on America. And I'm I'm betting that the next 50 years, next hundred years are going to be an American century again. But we can't get in the way of the innovation and the entrepreneurship uh you know and um the the creative destruction frankly that has allowed America to be so great. And uh finding that balance between between government and Silicon Valley has always been uh you know challenging. you know, as you just related, Michael, with MTOPS, but you know, we have to show up. We have to have a voice. We have to, you know, continue to push in that direction. Um, I think if we're allowed to compete, our best days lie ahead. If we get in the way, Bill, like you talk about, then I think we can upend our advantage. Thanks for joining us, though. Notice, Michael, great to see you.

我认为我们刚才讨论的一切，包括让美国技术出去竞争。请记住，只有当美国表现出色时，这些“投资美国”账户才具有价值，对吧？事实是，沃伦·巴菲特说过，他做的最明智的事情就是押注美国。他押注了美国。我打赌接下来的 50 年、未来 100 年将再次是美国世纪。但我们不能阻碍创新、创业精神，坦率地说，也不能阻碍使美国如此伟大的“创造性破坏”。正如你刚才提到的，迈克尔，在 MTOPS 问题上，政府和硅谷之间找到平衡一直很具有挑战性。但我们必须站出来，发出自己的声音，继续朝着那个方向努力。我想，如果我们被允许竞争，我们最好的日子还在后头。如果我们从中作梗，就像你所说的那样，那么我认为我们会颠覆我们的优势。感谢你的加入，迈克尔，很高兴见到你。

Appreciate it. Great to see you. Bye-bye. We'll talk soon. Take care.

非常感谢。很高兴见到你。再见。我们很快再聊。保重。