Good morning everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market open. It is Friday, November 7th. Thank you everybody for being here. It is an ugly pre-market to cap off a ugly ugly week in the stock market and it's just one of those days. It is one of those days, but it has felt like one of those days honestly for the past couple days and so I understand it is pretty annoying across the board.

We got a lot of different headlines, got a lot of different earnings from yesterday to cover. Obviously things are ugly right now in the pre-market. Ethereum and Bitcoin not really holding up. Ethereum right there at 3200. Bitcoin right now at 100.2. It was just at 99.1 about an hour ago. And so you are seeing a little bit of rebound, but nonetheless, you're seeing some decent pain.

S&P 500 already down.37% in the pre-markets. We're at 667. So we lost 670. We were holding 670 relatively strong yesterday. We did close at 670, but today we lose it in the pre-markets. And so when the market opens, we're going to see if we can continue to hold it.

Robin Hood down 2% was down 11% yesterday after one of the best earnings that the company's ever put up. Tesla, Elon Musk did get paid. We'll talk a little bit more about the Tesla compensation package, but Tesla right now is down about 1.4%. Open Door down 23% on the day after their earnings. Take two. Grand Theft Auto is delayed until November 2026. That one's down 4%. MP Materials is down 4%. Nvidia 184 back below 185. Nvidia is down 3%. Oaklows down 6% 35 cents away from going below 100. Rocket Lab 47 down 3%. SoFi 2668 down 2%. You kind of see the picture. BMR down 1%. I ran down 3% even though I ran out of good earnings. Meta down another 1%. It's an ugly day. It's an ugly ugly ugly day. And as a result you are seeing the pain of that ugliness.

So the question then becomes and and we'll kind of get started with this. Why are we having that type of pain? And obviously yesterday I don't think there was that sort of signature headline that everyone can point to to be able to say, "Hey, this is the number one reason why there's so much pain. This is the number one reason why there's so much red."

I've come to a conclusion that number one, it's about the labor market. We do have some more updates about the labor market in terms of jobless claims, which which sort of continue to further make the argument that we are in a weak labor market. So we'll look at that in a second. Number two, I think we're in a momentum draw down with the flushing out that's happening in front of us.

And I think that flushing out event today, the only concern that I have and I think the only thing that all of us should be looking out for is hey, can we stop the bleeding? That's the number one thing. Can we stop the bleeding? I don't I'm not even I I I don't we don't need a green reversal. We don't need stocks to go back to their 200 day move moving average. We just need to see some form of a bottom that is being formed because right now, quite frankly, I think the reason people are so annoyed is because you don't know where the bottom is.

And that's why any dip buyers that took a chance at the dip yesterday, it hasn't worked because you know if you bought the dip of Robin at 129 after it fell from 140, now it's at 124, right? So it's like another 3 4% dip. And that gets very annoying. And so the the question then becomes, is there a way for us to see when things kind of stall, stay in one place, and then start to at least have a chance to move higher. I don't know how Grab's up 2% in the pre-markets because everything's red, but Grab's up a little bit. Expedia did have good earnings. That's up 14%.

or does the bottom fall out today and do we continue going red? Not to mention it's a Friday and it's so funny because Fridays in every other like part of the world, every other profession, every other job is like, "Oh, it's Friday, end of the week. I'm ready to have fun." In the stock market, usually on Fridays we go red because no one wants to no one wants to hold stocks over the weekend and Wall Street institutions, market makers in general, they they tend to dump on Friday.

So, uh, you already should expect red every time we have Friday, options expire. You have a bunch of different stuff happening. But if the market's already been red all week, you know, there's not that many people that tend to want to buy stocks on a Friday. So, it's it's just going to be one of those things we have to see today. How much of that momentum gets flushed out, if that momentum continues to get flushed out and, you know, if this gets a little bit worse as we are getting through the rest of the day.

Here is the update on the labor market. We do have some additional jobs data, not from the BLS because the government is still closed. I think the government shutdown is also contributing to some of the red that we're seeing. But more jobless claims theoretically are going higher. Again, we don't have jobless claims because the government is closed. Uh which could be contributing to another weaker labor labor market.

>> Analytics, our data provider rising by 10,000 on the week. Still a modest 229. You can see that in the next chart. They're rising. It's the top of the range where they've been the past several months, but not really through the roof though. continuing claims that keeps edging higher together with that surge in mass layoffs that we reported yesterday from Challenger. Well, that suggests maybe some further weakening ahead that bears watching.

Meanwhile, the separate count of continuing claims by federal workers. That's worth watching here. It continues to surge now topping 23,000. That's the highest since 2019, reflecting perhaps some impact of the shutdown. Also, the beginning of the wave of laidoff federal workers who would now be eligible for benefits applying for those benefits.

We do have a slew of alternative jobs reports giving an impression of a labor market I would say cooling but not crashing. None of the indicators are giving runaway signals either way. Take a look at the signs of strength or stability. The ADP preliminary data we get we gave you a week ago that's 14,000 average for weekly um uh job gains. And then the national report was up from 20 from minus 29,000 now to 42. We brought you yesterday the Chicago Fed's estimate of the unemployment rate pretty much unchanged around 4.3% and there's that initial claims.

Now let's look at the signs of weakness. Um challenger job cuts report got to top that list at gaining 153,000 continuing claims edging higher towards the top of the range there. The Indeed jobs posting above the um the the standard of 100 but has been ticking down continuously. And then the ISM manufacturing and service employment indices both of those are had ticked up on the week but they remain below 50. So subjectively I put them into the weakness categories. Uh we're putting all this together folks and you can see oh one more thing we have uh yeah you can read our coverage of at a new site that we created cnbc.com alt/altt data the Fed looking at all this data.

So, as you can see, alternative jobs claims suggesting that uh we have another 10,000 of claims that hit the tape this month or this uh yeah, this month of um October, last month. Um yeah, that's not the best thing. So, I mean, look, this idea that we're not going to get a a cut in December, I think is absolutely rid. We're seeing more than enough data for why we would get a cut.

The big news yesterday was that Challenger, which is a third party firm, basically showed that we have had the most number of layoffs in the private market in October since 2003. Again, I don't know how JPAL, this 175,000 doesn't cut when you see data like that. Not to mention, there's, you know, plenty and plenty of headlines of uh the the the labor the layoffs that we are seeing being cited due to to AI.

In fact, the Challenger study said that AI in particular was one of the core reasons that payment providers and employers said, "Hey, this is likely why we don't need so many jobs." And if that's the case, then, you know, there's something that we do have to think about in the context of AI, but also the only thing the Fed can do is cut rates at that point.

And so, we're going to see how December ends up playing out. The probabilities for December are 70.6. So that's actually up from yesterday at 69.1. But I do think we will be getting that December cut.

In terms of uh fear and greed, we are indeed in extreme fear, which usually is the signal to buy. Again, today I I I don't think buying this dip is horrible. I just don't think going allin is the right strategy. I think nibbling on your favorite stocks and if they keep dipping, then it is what it is, right? Like you if you want to hold them longterm, then you just have to be able to withstand continued dips.

But I think if you have like 10,000 and you're ready to buy the dip, you know, maybe you allocate 2,000 out of that 10,000 and save the other 80% of it for when you get more clarity. And if you have to buy higher, then it is what it is. But it's better to have some of that money ready to deploy versus keeping it all in the market and then it just completely continues to go further down. So we are in extreme fear and today the number one thing I want to see is can we find any level of a bottom to stop the bleeding?

That's really what matters today. Can we stop the bleeding or does this have to continue?

Okay, I have the Grab news and I guess that is what's creating Grab going green right here. Indonesia is discussing a possible merger or acquisition between ride hailing and food delivery firm Grab and its rival GoTo. The presidential spokesperson said on Friday, "The government considers the ride hailing industry as strategic for job creation and vital to the economy. Goto's unit alone has 3.1 million online riders and Goto and Grab have dominated the Indonesian market for years."

That's interesting. So, you know, the the if anyone's kept up with the Grab story, the Goto and Grab merger has been talked about for a long time. I kind of gave up on it um a couple months ago because it just seemed like it was going to die out and you know, Goto was doing their thing, Grabb is doing their thing. There's always a lot of fuel to the fire for why they would end up doing the buyout.

The fact that a official for the Indonesian president is giving a direct quote that they are looking into a merger is kind of wild. It means that there might be some truth to this uh grab right here up 1.6%. I don't know if that's enough to actually make it move in a sea of red. It is getting some momentum right here in the pre-markets.

Look, if that happens, I think that would be very accive to grab. They have the cash to get it done. I don't think they have to spend all four, five billion cash they have to get the merger. But if they do take out go uh go to you know, you're adding a 100 million users to the platform. I mean, that would massively accelerate growth. it would be well over 30% in 2026 if that merger does happen. So, I guess we're going to have to see over the long term if that takes place. But you got that news and that's potentially why that's green in the pre-market.

Um, all right, let's get into some of the other headlines that we got. So, again, yesterday was pretty ugly, but in the midst of that ugliness, you did have at least Mr. Elon Musk getting paid, which was very nice to see. Oh, we got a Trump tweet. Hold on.

We got actually a couple Trump tweets. Uh, number one, oh, we got well, okay, we have three tweets. Number one is, "Nancy Pelosi, the old and broken political hack who impeached me twice and loss is finally calling it quit. She illegally made a fortune in the stock market, ripped off the American public, and was a disaster for America. I'm glad to see the stench of Nancy Pelosi go."

Okay, that's number one. Republicans terminate the filibuster and bring back the American dream. If you don't do it, the Dems will, and you'll never see office again.

That's number two. And number three, just say no. Terminate the filibuster. Okay, that's what you got.

I mean, look, I really hope that we can get this shutdown completed. There was a lot of senators that came on the program for CNBC over the past couple of days and they said, "Hey, we think that the shutdown will be avoided by the end of this week." We got a couple days left until the end of this week. So, I guess we're going to see if the shutdown actually does get avoided. But, I mean, if Trump is saying to get rid of the filibuster, I don't know if he's necessarily encouraging negotiation between uh the Democrats and Republicans to end the shutdown.

It's now been 40 days, the longest shutdown in history. And I think this is also affecting the market. I think this is obviously also affecting the market because the market is starting to realize that if we can't get this going, you're going to have a lot of people that just don't have a job. They don't have a job. They don't have money. They don't have money. Obviously, they can't spend on goods and services.

Elon's uh $1 trillion compensation package did get approved yesterday with over 75% of the vote. Uh I watched the entire shareholder meeting. I was watching it with a lot of you guys. And look, he paints a very bright and optimistic picture for Tesla. And I think he deserves the one trillion compensation if he can get Tesla to 8.5 trillion.

And I again, I I I've never understood the bare case for the compensation package. Like if he gets the stock to go up 10x, he gets a lot of money. But whoever is invested also in makes their investment go up 10x. Like that's obviously seems like a good deal to me. But um it was approved 75% of the vote. I I I called it 7030 before the vote happened. And so I had a feeling like it would be overwhelming in his favor and it did which is good to see. And that's what you got with Elon.

The the most important thing that Elon said yesterday is that he's thinking of building a chip fab. And this was kind of crazy to hear because basically he was like we don't have enough demand even if we look at the best case for chip production from our suppliers.

>> How do we make enough chips? Um so uh you know have a lot of respect for our the the Tesla partners TSMC and Samsung. Um yeah, you know, maybe we'll we'll we'll do something with Intel. Uh we we haven't signed any deal, but it's probably worth having discussions with Intel. Uh but um even when we extrapolate the best case scenario for chip production from our suppliers, uh it's still not enough. So I think we may have to do a Tesla Terraab.

So, it's like giga but way bigger. Um, I I can't see any other way to get to the volume of chips that that we're looking for. Um, so I think we're probably going to have to build a gigantic trip app.

Okay. So, and by the way guys, that's that's not my audio. Tesla's audio yesterday was just horrible. Like, I don't understand why their audio was so bad, but the entire stream for their audio, it's like you could barely hear what the speakers were saying and everything. But basically, he says there is so much demand that even in the best case scenario for uh Samsung and TSMC, which are their partners, to be able to get these chips out, they won't have enough chips.

And he's thinking, hey, I mean, he throws out Intel. Maybe we'll do something with Intel. It's worth looking at. Intel was up 4% as soon as he said that. And then second, he said maybe we have to build our own gigaf. Now, do I actually think Elon's going to get into the chip production game? No, I wouldn't bet against it. I just wouldn't be optimistic to bet for it. Uh so I wouldn't say they won't do it, but I definitely wouldn't put money on the line saying they will do it because again, these are very, you know, hard things. It takes 5 to 10 years to even get an entire chip app to be set up.

But the point is what he said kind of takes us into the conversation around open AI and what's going on in the AI space of the market. So open AI Sam Alman had a really long tweet yesterday basically trying to save his ass after saying that the government should backs stop a lot of the federal loans when it comes to compute and uh we'll talk about the response from the government on this.

But at its core Sam Alman has been saying there's not enough compute. There's not enough compute. There's not enough compute. We need way more demand. We need trillions and trillions of dollars to build up all this demand. And I think we all like understand the argument, but a lot of us, you know, are annoyed that Sam Alman is the one saying this. And it's like the question is like, is it actually real? What's happening? How are we thinking about it?

Then you got someone like Elon who, you know, also is operating a company that has two direct implications of this compute, which is FSD and robotics, not just an LLM, but something that, you know, we can see in the physical embodiment of AI. And he's saying there's not enough demand even in the best case scenario. So when you've got Elon saying we need way more chips and compute than we can even imagine and Sam Alman saying that you've got two pretty important people in the world of AI saying that there is simply not enough supply to handle this demand.

Maybe that continues to make the case for why capex will continue to go higher. I think another reason we've seen this read over the past couple weeks is because there is some concern about is capex going to continue in the way that it's going to continue and that's a bit of a silly concern because all the hyperscalers have already guided for 2026 being well above expectations.

Now, they can always take that guy down, but nonetheless, you know, based on the data that we're seeing, it's hard to imagine that capex is going to go down. So, Elon kind of just reconfirming the argument that there is plenty of demand. I if I said demand, I meant if I'm messing up the words demand and supply, I meant to say there is plenty of demand, there's not enough supply, and as a result of there not being enough supply, then how are they going to fulfill the demand?

Right? If there's massive FSD demand, massive robotics demand, massive compute demand in regards to LLMs, there's going to need to be a way to fulfill it. And the fact that Elon's legit suggesting building your own chip just goes to show how serious he is about getting enough chips. And and and it also, I think, proves to me why Sam Alman is so serious to build these chips. And that's why he has these 1.4 trillion spending commitments with AMD, Oracle, Nvidia, Broadcom, because he knows that the person who has the most compute wins.

Very bullish for semiconductor stocks. Um, but it kind of gave a little bit more legitimacy to everything that Sam Alman's been saying given Elon kind of reinforced it by literally saying we might have to build our own chip app.

Now, Sam Alman yesterday, uh, we do not want government guarantees for open AI data centers. We believe that government should not pick winners or losers and that taxpayers should not bail out companies that make bad business decisions or otherwise lose in the market. If one company fails, other companies will do good work. What we do think might make sense is government building their own AI infrastructure, but then the upside of that should flow to governments as well.

So you got Sam Alman trying to save the sort of PR disaster that has happened all week. And that's another reason why I think the markets were down because you know now people are saying wait a second the government has to get involved to backs stop all this stuff like that's not something that is uh necessarily appropriate and you had the markets kind of I think freaked out by him saying that.

having said that I think he's completely wrong and he's lying and the reason for that is because here is an openi document that was submitted one week ago and take a look at the part that's highlighted this is from openai's website right here if we scroll down AI server production and AI data centers broadening Coverage of the AMIC will cover the effective cost of capital. D-risk early investment and unlock private capital to help alleviate bottlenecks and accelerate the AI build in the US. Counter the PRC by d-risking US manufacturing expansion to provide manufacturers with the certainty and capital they need to scale production quickly. The federal government should also deploy grants, cost sharing agreements, loans or loan guarantees to expand the industrialbased capacity and resilience.

This is from OpenAI's website. So I mean obviously OpenAI is not uh afraid of asking the government for loans. They just said it in such a horrible way and then they realized the backlash that they got. David Sachs yesterday, the AISAR tweeted that the government will absolutely not backs stop any federal loans when it comes to building out AI data centers. And uh you know that also kind of made the argument that Samman had to kind of save by by publicly saying that's not what they're saying.

But that is exactly what they're saying. They they they want they again I I really do think OpenAI wants to make sure that they are too big to fail and by wrapping in the biggest companies in the world by wrapping in the biggest economy in the world like the US federal government it really makes it hard for them to fail because if they fail everybody fails and so from that perspective I think OpenAI is going to keep trying to do what they have to do and we are all sitting and observing and whatever company you're investing in AI probably has some derivative impact from OpenAI as they continue to work.

Speaking of opening eye, Sam Alman also got subpoenaed yesterday on stage, which was kind of crazy. But this is the clip of uh someone rushing on stage to subpoena him conference many years ago that you probably go ahead. Can you take off stage? Wow, getting off to a dramatic start already. Um, welcome conference. There you go. He got served on stage.

But it is quite wild. It is quite wild over the past week what we've seen in a variety of things from OpenAI, whether it's new deals, whether it's this government backs stop loan PR thing that they got into. The most important thing he said yesterday is actually that they're guiding for 20 billion of annualized revenue for 2025. So it's well above that 13 billion that they were saying and hundreds of billions by 2030.

Again, if they're going to actually do a couple hundred billion by 2030, the 1.4 trillion spending commitment over the next eight years doesn't seem that crazy. The question is, can they actually grow to that level? And if they can, it's very bullish Nvidia uh because they're going to need a lot of chips to do that. very bullish AMD, very bullish Broadcom, Oracle, like all those names that got this massive level of market cap increase because of partnering with OpenAI if OpenAI can actually grow to hundreds of billions by 2030. Super bullish for all those names.

And you know, we likely see momentum across the entire semiconductor ecosystem. The biggest question is can they do that? But given that Tesla wants to build their own chip fab, you can obviously sense the reason Sam Alman is making all these commitments is because he knows compute is the bottleneck. Power is also the bottleneck obviously to make this happen. Uh but if he does make this happen, you know, then we probably see some more momentum when it comes to AI.

Uh government shutdown. Let's get an update right here on the flights that have been shut down in major US airports. Here's the American Airlines CEO speaking on what's going on based on this government shutdown.

>> Nine flights to eight flights or DFW to Corpus Christi from seven flights to six flights. It's that kind of stuff right now. Now, this level of cancellation is going to grow over time and you know that's something that is is going to be problematic

>> and we'll talk about that in a bit. But I want to ask about these flights that were cancelled today. That might be maybe 10,000 people who have to redo their their travel schedules. Any issues rebooking them because there's not a lot of slack in the system.

>> There's not a lot of slack in the system, but right now our customers are going to be fine. We're making sure that they know well in advance of getting to the airport if their travel plans have been disrupted. And it's a very small portion of the total 650,000 customers that we have in a given day. We're going to make sure that our customers are taken care of no matter what.

And then Phil, I just want to say safety is the priority. So I give I commend all of our air traffic controllers, TSA agents at the end of the day and administrator Bedford's doing the right thing by trying to get in front of this problem.

>> But how worried are you? Look, we've got good weather around the country right now. God forbid we have a bad storm roll through the Southeast or the Northeast or anywhere. How how frustrating will it be to try to handle that and the cancellations that go with that?

>> Let's get the government back open. That's the the first key. We don't need to have this problem right now, but we're going to make sure that safety is priority and we will handle storms and other things. But you're right, as this problem grows and as cancellations grows, there's not a lot of slack in the system and managing the airline, managing the industry becomes exponentially harder as you increase the level of cancellations.

>> Talk about that because this is not simply you're not doing this flight from here to there. >> Aircraft have to be parked, crews have to be rerouted. Is that the biggest challenge at this point separate from the passengers?

>> It's it's an incredibly complex environment that we deal in. And so whether it's planes that need to be maintained, our pilots that have to maintain currency, you know, our crews, right, when you cancel a flight today, right, they don't just simply pick up where they left off. They have to be totally uh rearranged. So all of this is is it just creates complexity that makes it harder and harder. And our customers shouldn't be dealing with this.

We're here in our integrated operations center. We shouldn't be dealing with, you know, all the complexity and the the the rework that's going on. You know, this is something where we've got to get the government back open.

>> We are 20 days from Thanksgiving, right? >> A lot of people have already made their plans, but they're also going to make them beyond Thanksgiving for the holidays. Are you starting to notice an impact on bookings? Of course, there's an impact. Nobody wants to put up with hassle.

And again, we're doing everything we can to make sure our customers know that as we get into the busiest travel, you know, part of the the year, this is something that we just can't let happen. And Phil on that I'm confident that you know everybody in the government understands how important aviation is to the overall economy. You know one in every 11 jobs is somehow related to travel and tourism hospitality. We can't bring you know a bigger wider group into this you know situation that we find ourselves in today.

And just to reiterate this point at the beginning it's 3% of the flights for the system overall today 4% to the top 40 markets but it goes up from here. How tricky does that become to manage as it goes up close to 10% cancellations? And if we're there by the end of next week, what kind of stress does that put on the industry overall?

>> Well, we're not cancelling any service to any smaller markets. Uh we're not, you know, we're making sure that there's presence that's maintained. Today, I mentioned that, you know, we can handle this 4% by reducing frequencies, but next it becomes a lot harder. you're going to be really digging into, you know, some some, you know, more heavily traveled areas. And on that, as you get to 10%, let's face it, it's 10%'s a big number.

>> It is really ugly for these airlines, especially if the government does not get this stuff opened up pretty soon.

You know, Robin Hood invited Tanner, myself, and Roy to the um investor call in San Francisco. So they they invited us a month ago. Um and we all talked about it. We were like, should we fly out? Should we actually go there? And then we were just like, no, you know, it's it's a long flight from, you know, for me it would be six hours just to ask a question.

Like it would have been really cool to be there again because I was at the one in New York. It was a long flight to that for six hours just just for the question to come back. And now I think about it, I'm like, "Thank goodness we said no." Because it's like, dude, having to fly over the past couple days across the country with everything that's going on, it's just it's just psychologically it's scary, right? That like you're getting on a flight for six hours and you just don't like most likely nothing's going to go wrong, but just knowing that there could be some type of issue because of air traffic control, it's not uh, you know, it's not the it's not the funnest thing to think about.

And so I could only imagine people that are traveling for vacation or to see family. I have a cousin that's coming from California soon to New Jersey. Like it it's one of those things where there is a little bit more fear going on especially if these flights start to get more can start to get cancelled in a more egregious way. And as you can see right now the American Airlines CEO said right now it's like flights from um you know Boston to New York right things that are like 40 50 minutes like in interest in in the tri-state area. It's not something that's like from LA to New York or or anything like that or like London to Dubai.

But that is going to eventually start heating up as more and more people don't end up working. And the fact that he said one in out of 11 one out of every 11 jobs is affected directly or indirectly in some way through travel. I mean, yeah, travel is a big part of the economy and so you definitely have the airline stocks getting some red. Ultimately, we're going to see if that can continue or if that bleeding ends up stopping towards the rest of the day.

I ran right here down 3%. Bit mine down about 1%. Bitcoin just above 100,000. Ethereum slightly below 3,300 as well.

Uh let's talk about some of the earnings that we had yesterday. So, a bunch of these momentum names had earnings. Open was one of the names that had earnings. Open door right there down 16%. Openoro introduced a direct offering via dividends. Uh and the dividends are tied to warrants. I don't know exactly what this means. I'm trying to read and understand it.

Um, essentially it's a warrant dividend similar to the one GameStop did a while ago. And they're doing one warrant, one warrant per 30 shares. The multiple strikes for them at 913 and 17 depending on the series. And they're both forms of potential future dilution. They're not dilutive at the moment because they can be redistributed. But because no shares are issued, uh, they can be diluted in the future.

It seems bullish because Open Door gets to raise capital. open door right here down 16% and shareholders get a warrant to exercise to be able to get more exposure to the underlying but I don't fully understand exactly what it is but it is one of the more I guess you could call creative ways that they engaged in uh in in raising capital yesterday nonetheless they missed on EPS by 71% and as a result you know when you miss that badly things can get pretty ugly.

Now um the thing that was kind of crazy yesterday is that Open Door did have their uh call in in in video which was nice to see. I really like that companies are starting to embrace this stuff and um you had a video call where even Vlad called in from Robin Hood. So take a look at this video. I just saw this this morning. Uh Robin Hood CEO asked a question to Open Door.

>> What's up Cass? By the way, we're super pumped that you guys are streaming live to retail on Robin Hood. I think the question on everyone's mind is what's going on with tokenization? How real is it? And how do you think it could revolutionize the home ownership experience?

>> Thanks, Vlad. Thanks for hosting us. Um, look, I'm such a big fan of Robin Hood and I hope that we can continue to do things together. Our mission at Open Door is to tilt the world towards homeowners and those working hard to become homeowners. And I love that Robin Hood does some of the same things. You know, this whole thing of taking power away from fancy people and giving to average person.

Uh now to answer your question, um look, I have a habit of of not announcing products before they're launched. That's because I build products, not spreadsheets. And I think it's important that we ship things before we talk about them. And I don't want to say we're going to do this next week, but I genuinely can't imagine a future where real estate's not tokenized. And I also can't imagine a future where Open Door isn't leading innovation in uh real estate.

Look, now look, I don't know if uh if if that means Robin and Open going to collaborate in any meaningful way. Uh, but it does seem kind of interesting that the open door CEO, which I I am starting to like a lot more just in terms of his ability to communicate. The business model itself, I'm not a fan of.

I, you know, there were some red flags on the call. I had a lot of people that after they analyzed and they were just like every time he got asked the question about buying homes low and then selling high, he ended up talking about software and coding. And, you know, he started waxing poetic about the the nature of how we ship products. It's like, bro, you have to buy homes low, sell them high, and keep a spread in the middle. Like, and there was no real answer on how they're going to do that in any meaningful way to increase the profit.

Which is why I think the business model fundamentally is just not a good business. Like, there's a lot of other businesses I would buy over that that are just easier to understand and don't have that type of risk. Nonetheless, if they bring a tokenization component into it, maybe there's a way to kind of pivot the business. But, I don't know. And I think the reason the stock's down 17% right here is because the street's like, "Dude, like all that stuff you talked about yesterday, none of it's real yet. And maybe that's a future vision, but at its core, you guys aren't making any money on these homes."

And so, we're going to have to see longterm how that plays out. Maybe there's some Robin Hood partnership. If there is a Robin Hood partnership, I think it would be better for Robin Hood because they just get access to more supply if Open Door allows them to tokenize all their homes. I don't know exactly how Open Door really benefits from all that because they're not like a payments provider. They're not a brokerage.

So they they make money off the selling of the home and the spread in between. And again, they buy the home themselves, so they have to sell it for a bit higher. So I don't know exactly how it would work out, but nonetheless, it was nice to see the call yesterday. Open door right there down about 16%. Robin Hood as well down about 2%.

US AR not the best earnings. They were down 6%. A lot of these rare earth stocks getting hit. Archer down 13%. Archer made zero dollars of revenue. The street expected 400,000. They made zero. Um, so I'm sure a lot of you guys are making more money per week than Archer is making per quarter, but nonetheless, Archer right here down 13%.

Again, Archer, it's one of those names that you have to believe in the potential of Archer if you're buying into it. And right now, stocks with a lot of potential are not really getting that much love. Absela, I was talking to Arie about this today. A lot of potential. The reason they're down 10% is because they're not really executing at the highest of levels because it takes time for their platform to find drug discovery that can meaningfully work. So a lot of those momentum driven names that got a bid like an Oaklo as well down 6%. They are getting hit on a day when Nvidia as well is getting hit by 2%.

And that's what you've got going on. Uh the Fed to host an urgent meeting at 3 p.m. today. Is that actually happening? The Fed to host an urgent meeting. The Fed might already have their meeting ready to go. There is a bunch of Fed talk that's been happening. Uh Trump is going to be having a lunch with the prime minister of Hungary. at 11:45. Uh, and then he's going back to Mara Lago at 3:30 today.

So, not a crazy schedule for Trump this morning. Uh, I don't think the Fed is going to do any emergency rate cuts. I do see, yes, Fed is going to be speaking at 3 PM today, but I don't think that's some massive meeting to say we're going to cut rates. I mean, the market's not that bad yet for for for them to get a crazy rate cut.

Uh Trump Media did report earnings. That is correct. DJT, uh DJT right here is down 1.73%. On Trump Media earnings, we have a net loss of 54.8 million. They have 3.1 billion in assets, 28.7 in total income from Bitcoin linked option premiums and interest. Positive spa litigation resolution could be boost future results. This stock has a market cap of 4 billion and they lost $54 million. It doesn't really look like they have any revenue. If anything, it's about a couple million dollars.

Mint. Would you sell Nvidia at these levels? Absolutely not. So like when it comes down to selling, we were talking about this last night. I mean, again, you have to ask yourself, is there something that has fundamentally broken in the broader thesis for why you're long any of these names to get into the idea of selling?

And I don't know, look, I know it's really annoying seeing all the pain that we're seeing, all the blood that we're seeing. It is important to remind ourselves that we are up since October. October, we were at 640. Right now, we're at 667. So, I know it's not at 690 or 7,000, but um getting to 7,000 that easily, you know, was never going to be that easy. There's always going to be some ups and downs to get there,

but uh fundamentally not many things have broken in regards to the thesis for a lot of the names that I think most of us are in. Now, if you're in super super high momentum names uh which Robinet is high momentum, it's not as high momentum as Oaklow, but nonetheless, those are going to experience draw downs because they trade at a beta to the market even after they put up phenomenal earnings.

If the entire market's going down, does that mean you sell Robin Hood here? I I I don't think so. Like I I also don't don't think that means you go and rush to buy the dip. You know, if your average on Robin Hood is 50, do you really sell at 125 right here or do you kind of just hold on even if it goes back down to 110? But do you buy at 124? Maybe not because maybe it's not easily going back to 150.

So I think it's a market where you just kind of hold your horses and lay back and see how this thing plays out versus get super excited to buy the dip. We've seen this week that the market has not rewarded buying a dip. Throughout the year, the market has rewarded buying the dip immediately, like almost instantaneously within, forget a day, a couple hours, if you buy the dip, you're rewarded. That has not happened this week.

And if that continues over the next couple of weeks, which I'm not saying it has to, it's just a question of like no one knows, right? Then obviously buying the dip would not be the best strategy right here. you might just want to sit back and you know given so much of so many of us have bought the dip for the past year it begs the question of how much more of a dip do you need to buy unless you really really want to build up a position in a name that you haven't had a chance to build up on and the price gets attractive enough for you to finally get it.

if not towards the end of the year if you haven't bought the dip for nine months or 11 months at this point like that that just means you're underallocated and I'm sure most of us have put money into the markets and we're still up for the year a decent chunk even though uh there's been a draw down over the past couple of So I think that is the broader question to ask yourself if you think it's you know making sense to buy dip.

What do you think about Meta? We talked about Meta yesterday. Again I would rather give myself a quarter to see what Zux is doing with all the spend. I do think Meta is cheap. I think in 5 years if you buy Met at 612 you are not going to be upset about that. It's just a question of hey can we get this thing into the 550s 570s for it to get really attractive versus at 612.

And I would just like to know more about what Zux is trying to do with all this capex spend before fully jumping in. But it would not surprise me if Meta reverses here. The question is if we're having a macro draw down, it's going to be a little tough for an AI name with a bad narrative on it right now to reverse.

Wow. Apploven has a rule of 40 of 144. Dude, that's more than pounder and more than uh Robinet. Apploven is the one that we don't talk about too much, but that is pretty incredible. Look, they had a great earnings. They have that SEC probe that's out there and I think that's a little bit of overhang on the stock but stock right there at 613 down about 1.2% in the pre-markets.

Uh Palanteer. So look, one thing that I saw yesterday, shout out to Jack who posted this was Michael Bur's 13F. We talked a little bit about this yesterday, but Michael Bur posted his 13F uh two weeks early before he actually has to legally post it. And over the past decade, he's never posted it as early as he's posted it. uh which was on pounder earnings. I think when you put two and two together, it makes sense why he posted it so early.

He was obviously underwater on the pounder and video puts by a large margin and he wanted to give a signal to the market by letting people know that he is putting on a billion dollar short on these companies. And as a result, that is why that is why sorry I got to get to do not disturb. That is why um I think he disclosed it early.

So I think the reason for him disclosing it early was for him to kind of send a signal to the market that hey it is time to uh let people know that I'm short these names and I think in a sense he essentially disclosed early to try to get some exit liquidity because again he was down so bad on these positions both Nvidia and Palier.

now I don't know if he's profiting but Palier's below 175 if he shorted at any price above that he is up. Odds are he might not have given if he did the put at any time in the summer, July, August, September, it was below that level. So he was losing as pounder was going up to like 210 at one point. But if he did it above that, now he is starting to get some type of profit.

So I think that the sort of core reason for why he disclosed early was to try to set a signal to the market and let people obsess about the headlines of Michael Bur being short. Granted, here's the question, right? If you're gonna go short a name or buy puts on a name, are you gonna do it just to make a couple million dollars on a billion dollar put? Probably not. You're looking for you're looking for like a like a real draw down, right?

Like like in 2008, he had the whole thing collapsed before he even thought of taking a profit. And he could have profited many times before the whole thing collapsed. If you watch the movie, the whole thing had to really hit the fan for him to finally say, "All right, I should take some some profit off the table." Um, is he waiting for Palanteer to go down to like 30 bucks or something? I don't know.

But it is interesting because he was completely underwater for the past couple of months. Finally, potentially he might be above water. And the question becomes, all right, do you just get out of it and say, "All right, well, at least I escaped that without too many scars." Or are you like, "No, this is the moment I've been waiting for." Same thing with Citron. We're going to wait till this thing really comes down.

And I'm not sure. And I think it really does depend on the broader macro as well. Like I I don't think pounder easily goes down by itself unless the macro goes goes down. That's the one thing about whatever stock you're into right now, whatever main position you have, you can't really blame the stock itself. You can blame the whole market.

Maybe there's some different things around the stock that's helping it to go down, but the entire market's down. And so until the market gets a little bit of a bottom and tends to recover, we're not going to know if the individual stock that you're holding is down because it's down or it's down because the macro is down. And right now, you know, you can chalk up a lot of this stuff to the broader macro.

Jensen's tweet started this. Well, Jensen saying that China is going to beat the United States in AI. That definitely didn't help over the past couple days. Oh, by the way, I forgot to talk about this morning, but uh Trump administration basically said yesterday Jensen and AMD are not selling anything to China. Forget Blackwell. They're not selling anything.

So, the US is set to announce a ban on sales of Nvidia scaled down AI chips to China. This also explains why Jensen kind of front ran those comments by saying that China is going to win the AI race. But multiple reports last night said that the US is going to be banning any sale of meaningful chips, H100s, H20s, etc. to China, which also affects AMD.

And that's probably why Nvidia and AMD uniquely are getting a decent chunk of pain today. But that's obviously affecting the entire market as well. AMD 229 loses 230 down 3.4%.

Nvidia doesn't need China. Remember the numbers Jensen was showing at GTC? I agree Nvidia doesn't need those China numbers, but I think Jensen also knows in the back of his head he can't just depend on domestic demand to keep the party going. Otherwise, why would he say that, right?

Jensen has, you know, Jensen is let's just let's just call a spade a spade. Jensen has been kissing Trump's ass for the entire year. So why would he public like he knows when he says something publicly he definitely knows when you look back to what happened with the quantum stocks back in March. He knows when he says something publicly it has an impact. Why would he say something that undermines uh American technology? He wants to send a signal to the big guy. And why does he want to send a signal?

Well, the reason he might want to send a signal is because he knows that uh he needs China to keep his business afloat. Maybe not now, but eventually. And I think the market's also a little bit, you know, scared of that as well after Jensen said what he said about China.

>> that's not what I said. Um what I said was that China has very good AI technology. >> They have many uh AI researchers. In fact 50% of the world's AI researchers are in China and they develop very good AI technology. In fact the most popular AI models in the world today are open- source models are from China and so they're moving very very fast. United States has to continue to move incredibly fast and otherwise otherwise uh the world is very competitive. So we have to

>> Jensen's obviously trying to save face there. I mean, as soon as he said China's ahead of the US, people got scared. And he's trying to clarify. And look, the clarification makes sense. But at its core, you got people now starting to think because look, implicitly the assumption is if Jensen is sending this warning signal that China is ahead of the US, he's trying to say that Nvidia should be able to sell to China.

And so the market's thinking, well, why is he so desperate to sell to China? Is it because he doesn't have enough demand to sustain the valuation if you can't access the Chinese market? based on what he said at GTC, without China, they're still doing great. But obviously the tone of his voice when it comes to these public statements might say something that's different. And so that's why I think the market's a little a little bit more concerned right here.

>> The NASDAQ's gone up 40% off of the bottom in April, right? Straight up and to the right. All these AI stocks have gone up to the right. The market was kind of looking for a reason for a breather. And you know, Sam came on the podcast. He was a little bit feisty. And he said, "Listen, we're doing more than 13 billion in revenue." And he just said in his tweet that they're going to exit the year at $20 billion in revenue.

>> It's still a fraction of what they're spending. >> Correct. And you know, as I clarified in my tweet after the fact when I said, you know, it's unfortunate everybody focused on the feistiness and not on the substance. What Sam said multiple times on the pod and since is that he expects that they'll do over a hundred billion in revenues in 27 or 28.

And if they're doing that and you spread the capex out, so we talk about 1.4 trillion, half of that's going to be borne by their partners. So now we're down to 6 or 700 billion and that's spread out over 5 years. So now we're talking 100 to 200 billion of capex per year that needs to be borne by open AI. Now if they're doing 100 to 200 billion in revenue in 2018 29 then now we're in the zone of responsible and so I think that that you know the market kind of ran with this before it really digested the facts.

>> Uh, well, actually, I wouldn't tell them anything. I would say go look at our numbers. Uh, we have the single best uh rule of 114, which is like the Olympic score in in in enterprise software that I think anyone's ever printed. So a great score is 45. An extraordinary score is like 60. 114 is like Michael Phelps at the Olympics. I would say go look at our growth in the US 121%. Uh you know look at our aggregate growth in the US 77%.

more importantly um uh but actually what I would really tell uh the people I care about on that which are Palunteerians and people who invested their own money over the last couple years is the things I'm most proud about about the Palunteer journey is we we've printed venture results for the average man and woman in America meaning if you invested in Palunteer you're up a thousand% and the only other way you could have done that in the past would be like be an endowment at Harvard by the way giving people the worst education ever but somehow having unfair results and unfair returns because they can use specialized instruments and the best people in the world. So yes, you did better as a as a truck driver in America investing in Palunteer than the Harvard endowment did with the best.

>> by the way, I I what I was defensive about, not defensive, I would say offensive about I don't like short sellers. And you know, everyone's like, "Oh, it's price discovery. Great." That's like saying you're a lawyer. You don't have to defend the pedophile. You know, yeah, I'm all in favor of everyone having a defense. I'm in favor of civil rights and defense for the innocent and for of the guilty because that's how you have civil liberties. If you're a lawyer, you don't have to work for a terrorist. You don't have to work for a pedophile. If you're a short seller, you do not have to actually short a truly great company. By the way, the thing that's great about Palunteer is we deliver for the average person on the battlefield, on the work floor, and as investors. pick some other company to screw with. But actually in the in the in the Bur case, I I actually think what was happening was market manipulation. I strongly suspect he was getting out of his position. And to get out of his position, he had to screw the whole economy by bismerching the best financials ever. Again, financials that are are helping the average person as investors on the battlefield, etc., etc.