黑石集团的起源与发展

Speaking of legacy, it is 40 years for Blackstone. It was founded by these two visionaries. Pete Peterson, who passed in 2018, and Steve, who many of you heard from last night and had to go to the UK at the request of President Trump and Prime Minister Starmer. These guys had the idea that they were going to build a different kind of financial services company dedicated to delivering for customers. They started with just $400,000. And of course, that has become something much larger. $225 billion market cap and $1.2 trillion of assets under management. The largest alternative asset manager in the world.

谈及传承，黑石集团已走过40年。它由两位富有远见的创始人创立：Pete Peterson（已于2018年辞世）和Steve。许多人昨晚听过Steve的演讲，他应特朗普总统和首相Starmer的要求前往了英国。这两位创始人的想法是，他们要建立一家与众不同的金融服务公司，致力于为客户创造价值。他们最初的启动资金仅有40万美元。当然，如今黑石已发展壮大，市值达2250亿美元，管理资产达1.2万亿美元，是全球最大的另类资产管理公司。

黑石成功的基石：对回报的执着追求

How did this happen? Well, I'll just hit on a couple things. Obviously, the most important, our northstar, a relentless focus on returns. These are all our major strategies here since the first one in corporate private equity in 1987. These are the net returns we've produced over time through good times and bad times. This is what it's all about. We have to earn your trust each and every day. We have to deliver for you. This is why we spend so much time on our due diligence, the rigor uh in our investment committee process. It's why I spend my weekends reading investment committee memos as do many of my partners. This is what it's all about.

这一切是如何发生的？我将简要谈谈几点。显而易见，最重要的是我们的北极星——对回报的毫不懈怠的关注。这里列出了自1987年首次涉足企业私募股权以来，我们的所有主要战略。这些是我们历经顺境逆境所创造的净回报。这才是关键所在。我们必须每天赢得您的信任，必须为您带来价值。这就是为什么我们在尽职调查和投资委员会流程的严谨性上花费如此多的时间和精力。这也是为什么我和我的许多合伙人一样，周末都在阅读投资委员会的备忘录。这才是事情的本质。

企业家精神与全球扩张

The second thing is the entrepreneurial spirit of this place. Steve really puts it into the DNA. This idea that we can do more. We can do it in more places, in more sectors. We started with one office in the United States. Today, of course, 27 offices around the globe. We started with one strategy, corporate, private equity. Today we have more than 80 strategies and we're constantly looking for new places to deploy capital. Where are their interesting areas to invest? We're going to talk about a bunch of those today. We're trying to look forward. How can we continue to deliver for all of you?

第二点是这里的企业家精神。Steve将其深深植入我们的基因。这种“我们可以做得更多”的想法，我们可以在更多地方、更多行业做到。我们最初只在美国设有办事处。如今，我们遍布全球27个办事处。我们最初只有一个战略——企业私募股权。如今，我们拥有超过80项战略，并且不断寻找新的投资机会。有哪些有趣的投资领域？今天我们将探讨其中一些。我们试图展望未来，思考如何能持续地为各位创造价值？

规模化优势与数据洞察

Third thing, the advantage of scale. I often get asked, isn't being so big a negative? And I would tell you that our greatest advantage comes from our scale. The idea that we have this enormous portfolio of real estate and companies and infrastructure and the insights we get from that. If you think about investing as pattern recognition, connecting dots, we get more dots than anybody around inflation and the economy. We're going to share some of that. And then of course around the big mega trends that are driving the future. And we look to this portfolio constantly to think about how we can best deploy capital.

第三点是规模化优势。我经常被问到，如此庞大是否是一个劣势？我想说，我们的最大优势恰恰来自于规模。我们拥有庞大的房地产、公司和基础设施组合，从中获得了宝贵的洞察。如果您将投资视为模式识别、连接点滴，那么在通胀和经济方面，我们比任何人都能获得更多的信息。我们将分享其中一部分。当然，还有驱动未来的重大趋势。我们不断审视这个投资组合，思考如何最优地配置资本。

规模化优势：大型交易能力与联合投资

The other advantage I'd mentioned on scale is our ability to do very large transactions. So here you have six deals we did in the last year across the firm. Everything from data centers in Asia to my favorite fast food chain and Jersey Mike's. The commonality across this is that we did not need to call another sponsor. Because of the capital you entrust us with and because of co-investment, we're able to do these transactions which is a huge competitive advantage. And speaking of co-invest, we know how important it is to you. We did 11 billion in 2024. In the first half of the year, it was up threefold. We recognize this is key to the people in this room. We will continue to deliver co-invest at scale.

我还要提到的规模化优势是我们进行超大型交易的能力。例如，这是我们在过去一年中完成的六项交易，涵盖了从亚洲的数据中心到我最喜欢的快餐连锁店 Jersey Mike's。这些交易的共同点是，我们无需寻求其他赞助商的合作。因为您委托于我们，以及联合投资模式，我们能够完成这些交易，这是一个巨大的竞争优势。说到联合投资，我们深知它对您的重要性。2024年我们完成了110亿美元的联合投资。今年上半年，这一数字增长了两倍。我们认识到这对在座的各位至关重要。我们将继续大规模地提供联合投资机会。

黑石的企业文化建设

Final thing on Blackstone, our commitment to culture. This is an image of uh BXTV with me and Stephen Vic. Every Monday we do an internal Zoom call for all our professionals around the globe. We talk about what we see in markets, where are interesting places to invest, funds we're raising. We want everyone to know what we're doing. We also have a photo contest. We show people climbing mountains and running marathons, having babies, getting married. We understand that ultimately our business is about our people and what connects them is the culture of this firm. And we're very proud of what that has produced. It leads to almost 60,000 young people applying to work at Blackstone this year and only 138 get jobs. I'm very lucky. I got a job at Blackstone 33 years ago, I would say. And then when people come here, the nearly 300 partners we have have stayed an average of 12 years now today. And the people you're going to hear from at this conference have been at Blackstone an average of 20 years.

关于黑石的最后一点，是我们对企业文化的承诺。这是BXTV的截图，有我和Stephen Vic。每周一，我们都会为全球所有员工举行一次内部Zoom会议。我们讨论市场动态、投资机会以及我们正在募集的基金。我们希望每个人都了解我们的动向。我们还举办摄影比赛，展示大家登山、跑马拉松、生孩子、结婚的照片。我们深知，归根结底，我们的业务关乎人才，而将大家联系在一起的是公司的文化。我们对由此产生的成果感到非常自豪。今年，近6万名年轻人申请加入黑石，最终只有138人获得录用。我非常幸运，33年前获得了在黑石工作的机会。而我们近300位合伙人，平均在这里工作了12年。今天，您将在本次会议上听到发言的各位，平均在黑石已有20年工作经验。

经济与投资环境展望：挑战与机遇并存

So chapter two, let's go to the economy and the investment environment. How are we seeing things? Well, the world is obviously a tough place. The headlines, if you read them every day, can be very depressing. I asked Chad GPT to make this. I will admit I put my picture in here and I said make me look a little younger. Um there you go. Tariffs, we know the uncertainty it created and continues to create. Hopefully some of that's going to settle fairly soon. We've got some hot geopolitical conflicts which create risk. Hopefully those will settle over the next year. Inflation and rates we'll talk about. But people are feeling pretty cautious in the investment world given some of this. We would argue, however, that yes, there is some rain, there's clouds, but there are also reasons for optimism. And what I'm going to spend time today is talking a bit about why it's okay to see the glass maybe a little more half full while still recognizing some of these risks.

那么，第二章，让我们转向经济和投资环境。我们如何看待事物？显而易见，当今世界充满挑战。每天阅读新闻头条，可能会让人感到非常沮丧。我让ChatGPT制作了这张图。我承认，我把自己的照片放了进去，并要求它让我看起来年轻一点。好了，看。关税，我们知道它带来的不确定性以及持续带来的不确定性。希望这一切能尽快平息。我们面临一些激烈的地缘政治冲突，这带来了风险。希望这些冲突能在未来一年内得到解决。通胀和利率，我们稍后会谈。鉴于这些因素，投资界人士普遍持谨慎态度。然而，我们认为，是的，有阴雨，有乌云，但也有乐观的理由。今天我将花些时间，谈谈为什么在认识到这些风险的同时，将杯子视为半满是可行的。

经济韧性：美国消费与企业盈利分析

Let's start with the economy. Clearly, Europe is slow. In the US, consumers, particularly lower-end consumers, face real challenges. But this is our private equity portfolio. In the second quarter, revenue growth was remarkably strong at nearly 8%. And when you look at our borrowers, non-investment grade borrowers, several thousand of them, a default rate of just 0.5%. I think this will go up a bit, but this is overall pretty good picture. Also, the margin side of the equation at our companies, we're up 170 basis points in the second quarter. When you have rising sales, rising margins, that is not a formula for a recession.

让我们从经济开始。很明显，欧洲经济增长缓慢。在美国，消费者，尤其是中低收入消费者，面临着严峻的挑战。但看看我们的私募股权投资组合。第二季度，收入增长率高达近8%，表现非常强劲。再看看我们的借款人，非投资级借款人，有数千家，违约率仅为0.5%。我认为这个数字会略有上升，但总体而言，这是一个相当不错的图景。此外，我们公司利润率方面，第二季度上升了170个基点。当销售额和利润率都在上升时，这并非经济衰退的迹象。

通胀降温：数据与实际情况的对比

Third thing, inflation. Inflation is cooling around the globe. Everyone talks about sticky inflation, but our data tends to show otherwise. Now, goods inflation in the US, as the parenthetical says, will be sticky, will be higher because of the tariffs. But if you look at the headline CPI that came out last week, embedded in it is rental housing costs at 3.6%. That is very different than what we see as the largest owner of rental housing in the United States. By the way, this is the biggest category, 35% of CPI. We would say that BX derived shelter costs from our portfolio or a little over 2%, which puts CPI reality at 2.4%. much closer to the Fed's target.

第三点，通货膨胀。全球通胀正在降温。每个人都在谈论顽固的通胀，但我们的数据似乎表明并非如此。是的，美国商品通胀，如括号中所述，将因关税而保持坚挺，会更高。但如果您看看上周公布的整体CPI，其中包含的住房租赁成本为3.6%。这与我们作为美国最大的住房租赁业主所看到的情况大相径庭。顺便说一下，这是CPI中占比最大的部分，占35%。我们认为，从我们的投资组合中得出的住房成本大约略高于2%，这意味着CPI的实际数字是2.4%，更接近美联储的目标。

劳动力市场变化与工资增长放缓

Now, it's not just rental housing costs. It's also the labor market. So, every quarter we do a survey. We say to our CEOs, "What are the things that are keeping you up at night? Is it tariffs, technology?" And if you went back to Q1 of '22, the number one thing they said was how hard it was to hire people. When we asked that same question last quarter, that had dropped to number nine. So something is happening here in the labor market and we see it now in our numbers. I would tell you our numbers are often 6 to 12 months ahead of what you see in the government data. But these are heads of uh human resources at our US companies. 4.6% wage growth a year ago which has dropped below 3% for the first time in the postcoid period. If I was a Fed governor, this is very encouraging when you think about inflation.

这不仅仅是住房租赁成本。劳动力市场也同样如此。因此，我们每个季度都会进行一项调查。我们问我们的CEO：“什么事情让你们夜不能寐？是关税还是技术？”如果您回顾2022年第一季度，他们提到的首要问题是招聘有多困难。当我们上个季度问同样的问题时，这个问题已经降到了第九位。因此，劳动力市场正在发生一些变化，我们现在已经看到了我们的数据。我想说，我们的数据通常比政府公布的数据领先6到12个月。但这是我们美国公司人力资源部门的负责人。一年前的工资增长率为4.6%，在后疫情时期首次降至3%以下。如果我是一名美联储理事，在考虑通胀问题时，这会非常令人鼓舞。

资本成本下降与投资环境改善

Now also cost of capital so important and as inflation comes down so should rates in Canada and Europe they've obviously moved much quicker in the US we were on the path down the Fed paused given liberation day wanted to see the impact of tariffs I think we all know at 2 p.m. This number is going to go down by 25 basis points. But we would argue if these inflation trends continue, we'll continue to see costs of capital come down. That's good for businesses. It's good for consumers. And it's good for us as investors because the present value of cash flows are worth more. But it's not just base rates that are coming down. Here we have high yield spreads. Back in '22 when things looked scariest, high yield spreads were nearly 600 over. They've come down basically in half to 290 over. This of course drives down borrowing costs for companies and is very good for the transaction environment.

现在，资本成本同样非常重要。随着通胀下降，利率也应该下降。加拿大和欧洲的利率下降得更快。在美国，我们原本在下降的轨道上，但美联储因“解放日”而暂停，希望看到关税的影响。我想我们都知道，下午2点，这个数字将下降25个基点。但我们认为，如果通胀趋势持续下去，资本成本将继续下降。这对企业有利，对消费者有利，对我们投资者也有利，因为现金流的现值更高了。但下降的不仅仅是基础利率。这里我们看到的是高收益率息差。回到2022年，当时情况最严峻时，高收益率息差接近600个基点。现在已经基本腰斩至290个基点。这当然会降低企业的借贷成本，对交易环境非常有利。

股权市场回暖与IPO重启

And again, it's not just about debt, it's about the equity market. In 2021, the IPO market in the US was booming nearly $60 billion. By '22, it was shut off. It's beginning to climb out. And at Blackstone, we've done three IPOs in the last couple months. Last week, we did our first US IPO since 2021. I would expect you'll see more. And across the industry, this should help with the DPI challenge that so many of you have been facing.

同样，这不仅仅关乎债务，也关乎股票市场。2021年，美国的IPO市场一片繁荣，募资近600亿美元。到了2022年，市场一度关闭。现在它开始复苏。在黑石，我们在过去几个月完成了三次IPO。上周，我们完成了自2021年以来的首次美国IPO。我预计您将看到更多IPO。在整个行业中，这将有助于缓解许多人面临的DPI（已分配利润）挑战。

AI：驱动新一轮生产力革命的核心动力

But what is the main reason? I'm enthusiastic. We're enthusiastic. What is the main thing? It is AI. This is the big thing and why is it the big thing? Because it's starting with this massive investment boom which we'll talk about which provides the foundation for the technology and then the AI itself which we believe is going to create an enormous productivity boom. That's what's coming. And shouldn't just take my word for it. These are the leaders of the biggest tech companies in the world. My personal favorite comes from Jensen who was our speaker last year who said a new industrial revolution has started and we certainly subscribed to that. So what was the Sputnik moment that got this started? Obviously it was the launch of Chat GPT. In less than two years it got to 700 million customers, the fastest of any consumer product in history.

但主要原因是什么？我充满热情，我们都充满热情。最主要的是什么？是AI。这是最重要的事情，为什么它如此重要？因为它始于我们即将讨论的巨额投资热潮，这为技术奠定了基础，然后是AI本身，我们相信这将创造巨大的生产力提升。这就是即将到来的趋势。您不必只听我的一面之词。这些是全球最大科技公司的领导者。我个人最欣赏的一句话来自去年我们的演讲嘉宾Jensen，他说一场新的工业革命已经开始，我们对此深信不疑。那么，是什么启动了这一进程？显然是ChatGPT的发布。不到两年时间，它就获得了7亿用户，是历史上增长最快的消费产品。

历史先例：互联网革命的启示

Now have we ever experienced anything like this before where the world changed dramatically? I don't think at this scale but we do have something that is a bit of precedence. Go back to 1989 94 I was in college and then a couple years working. If you go back then productivity cumulatively over those five years was growing just 4% less than 1% a year. The stock market did okay, grew 9 a.5% a year, but the Fed had cut rates by 300 basis points during that point. But then something very powerful happened.

我们是否曾经历过如此剧烈的世界变革？我认为没有达到如此规模，但我们确实有一些先例。回到1989年至1994年，我当时还在上大学，然后工作了几年。那时，五年内的累计生产力增长仅为4%，年均增长不到1%。股市表现尚可，年均增长9.5%，但在此期间，美联储降息了300个基点。但随后发生了非常强大的变化。

[Music]

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互联网浪潮：生产力与股市的爆发式增长

I love that. Uh you guys remember dialing up AOL, the first internet service provider, getting to Netscape, the main browser at the time. And dramatic things happened in the second half of that decade. You saw a threefold increase in productivity to 11% here. And you saw the stock market grow fivefold, 251%. I am not advocating that's what's coming in the stock market. multiples today are much higher than they were in 1994. But it gives you a sense of the power of a productivity boom and what it can mean for companies and values and growth. Now things did get a little ugly at the end as you remember in 2000 pets.com some business models that didn't make sense. And this is the big risk. The big risk is as this technology gets takes hold, as we all get more enthusiastic, excesses will build up and we've got to be thinking about those as we're deploying capital.

我喜欢这段。你们还记得拨号上网使用AOL，第一个互联网服务提供商，然后是当时的浏览器Netscape。在那十年的后半段，发生了翻天覆地的变化。生产力增长了三倍，达到了11%。股市也增长了五倍，达到251%。我并不是说股市也会出现同样的情况。如今的市盈率远高于1994年。但它能让你感受到生产力爆发的巨大力量，以及它对公司、价值和增长的意义。当然，正如你们所记得的，2000年时，像pets.com这样一些商业模式不合理的公司导致了市场的动荡。这就是巨大的风险。最大的风险在于，随着这项技术的发展，随着我们越来越乐观，泡沫将会累积，我们在配置资本时必须考虑到这些。

AI早期影响：特定行业就业变化

Now, the question today is, is AI beginning to have an impact? And this study just came out a couple weeks ago from Stanford, and I think it's starting to show the early impact of AI. It starts here with two, I'll call it, AI unaffected sectors. stock clerks and health aids. And it has cohorts early 20s and people in their 40s. And if you look in stock clerks, basically they're both their growth in employment is roughly the same. And if you look in health aids, actually there's more hiring of young people than people who are more experienced. So AI here, no impact. But now let's look at a couple other sectors. Software developers. Look what's happening to that orange line for 22 to 25 year olds. Something dramatic. A clawed code effect. Early programmers are being displaced, it appears. And by the way, the same story with customer service agents. As AI gets better answering phones, answering questions, more and more technology taking over for people. It feels like it is very early days here.

那么，今天的问题是，AI是否开始产生影响？这项研究几周前刚由斯坦福大学发布，我认为它开始显现AI的早期影响。首先来看两个我称之为“不受AI影响”的行业：店员和医疗助手。这里分为两个年龄组：20岁出头和40多岁的人群。在店员方面，两组的就业增长率大致相同。而在医疗助手方面，年轻人的招聘人数甚至多于经验丰富的人员。所以，在这些领域，AI尚未产生影响。但现在让我们看看另外几个行业。软件开发者。看看那条代表22至25岁人群的橙色线发生了什么。非常显著的变化。一种“抢夺代码”效应。早期程序员似乎正在被取代。顺便说一句，客户服务代表也面临同样的情况。随着AI在接听电话、回答问题方面变得越来越好，越来越多的技术正在取代人力。感觉这还只是非常早期的阶段。

AI在黑石的投资实践：“卖铲子”的比喻

So, how is this impacting us here at Blackstone? Well, we just did a commercial called Eureka about the gold rush in San Francisco or in Northern California in 1849. It's about a couple of clever clever gold miners who decide instead of looking for gold, they're going to sell picks and shovels. Of course, it's a metaphor about digital and energy infrastructure. Let's take a look.

那么，这如何影响到我们黑石呢？我们最近制作了一个名为“Eureka”的广告，讲述了1849年旧金山或北加州的淘金热。故事讲述了几位聪明的淘金者，他们决定不亲自挖金子，而是去卖铲子和锄头。当然，这是一个关于数字和能源基础设施的比喻。让我们来看看。

We finally made it. Now, let's go get that gold.

我们终于来了。现在，去淘金吧。

Anyway, it's a little cut of that. I want to show you the second version we have of this.

总之，这是其中的一小段。我想向您展示我们制作的第二个版本。

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We finally made it. Let's go get that gold.

我们终于来了。 去淘金吧。

Now, what's the difference between these two ads? This one was filmed outside of Vancouver. We flew a bunch of people up, hotel rooms, cast and crew, all of those things. Took a lot of time to make. film editing. It cost a million dollars to make. Good ad. The one on the left is not quite as good yet. It was made on the eighth floor here with two guys in a couple hours. And you think about the cost of this, a lot lot less. And you think about how this will work its way through the economy and businesses, it's pretty extraordinary.

那么，这两个广告有什么区别呢？这个广告是在温哥华附近拍摄的。我们雇了很多人，提供了酒店住宿，还有演员和剧组人员，所有这些都花费了大量时间和精力进行拍摄和剪辑。制作成本高达100万美元。这是一个不错的广告。而左边的那个还不太好。它是在我们公司八楼拍摄的，只有两个人花了几个小时就完成了。再想想它的成本，要低得多。再想想这对经济和企业会产生怎样的影响，这简直是不可思议的。

投资策略：拥抱颠覆与AI驱动的“淘金热”

So, how do we invest around this generational change? That is the key question. Well, I think it's really important to think about disruption and why you've got to be proactive. And I'm starting here with the New York City taxi medallion, which may be the best asset class over a 66-year period in history. Because if you had a grandparent who decided in 1947 to buy one at $2500, it would grow to be worth $1.2 million. Plus, you would have gotten a bunch of cash flow. And this is unleveraged. Extraordinary. And if you looked at any time in your investment committee memo, you'd say this is the asset to buy. But of course, technology changed. Uber and Lyft came along and in a matter of couple years, you lost 82% of your value. And these are the sort of things that are keeping us up at night. The kind of change that could be ahead for a number of businesses.

那么，我们如何围绕这场世代变革进行投资？这是关键问题。我认为，思考颠覆性并采取主动策略至关重要。我从纽约市出租车牌照这个例子开始。这可能是66年来表现最好的资产类别。因为如果您的祖父母在1947年以2500美元购买了一张牌照，它的价值将增至120万美元。此外，您还能获得可观的现金流。而且这是无杠杆的。非常惊人。如果您查看任何一份投资委员会的备忘录，您都会说这是必买的资产。但技术改变了一切。Uber和Lyft出现了，短短几年内，您就损失了82%的价值。这些正是让我们夜不能寐的事情，是未来许多企业可能面临的变革。

投资机遇：AI基础设施的“picks and shovels”

Now, the good news is there are plenty of things that will be less impacted. physical things like the airport in Rome, Stifin Town, the massive apartment complex we own in New York City, Seven Brew, the fastest growing coffee chain in the US. These things will be much less impacted, but there'll be plenty of businesses that'll face major challenges. So, of course, as investors, how should we play this? Well, it starts with the picks and shovels with things like chips and data centers and power at massive scale. This is what you need to make this AI a reality. We have really focused on the right two circles here. And what's happening in this world? Well, capback spend in this world is up sixfold with just four companies. Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon to $364 billion. To put that into context, that is bigger than the budget of NASA, the Department of Energy, and the Department of State. It's equal to 1% of the GDP of the United States. This doesn't include Oracle, which is now joining the party in a big way. These numbers are going to be even bigger next year. The scale of this is hard to fathom.

现在，好消息是，有很多东西受到的影响会较小。比如实体资产，像罗马的机场、Stifin Town，我们拥有的纽约市大型公寓综合体，以及美国增长最快的咖啡连锁店Seven Brew。这些受到的影响会小得多，但仍将有大量企业面临重大挑战。那么，作为投资者，我们应该如何应对？这始于“淘金热”的比喻，即投资于芯片、数据中心和大规模电力等基础设施。这是让AI成为现实所必需的。我们专注于了这两个关键领域。这个领域发生了什么？这四个公司（微软、Meta、谷歌、亚马逊）的资本支出翻了六倍，达到了3640亿美元。作为参考，这比NASA、能源部和国务院的预算总和还要多。相当于美国GDP的1%。这还不包括现在也大力投入的甲骨文。这些数字明年将进一步增长。其规模之大，难以想象。

投资AI基础设施：数据中心与电力需求的激增

Next up, what how is the US? How are we playing this in the US and around the world? With QTS, we have seen a tenfold increase in this company that we bought in 2021. It's grown from a10 billion company to a $70 billion company. Pretty extraordinary. It's not just data centers, of course, it's power. I stole this graph from Shan Climac. Over 25 years, power demand in the US was basically flat. Now it's projected to be up 40%. Why? Data centers, re-industrialization, autonomous vehicles, robots. My guess is this curve will be even steeper. We believe this is so powerful. We go back to the iconic 1967 film, The Graduate. You may remember this. This is Benjamin Bradock aka Dustin Hoffman getting some advice from Mr. Maguire.

接下来，美国的情况如何？我们如何在美国和全球范围内抓住这一机遇？通过QTS，我们看到我们于2021年收购的公司市值增长了十倍，从100亿美元增长到700亿美元。非常惊人。当然，这不仅仅是数据中心，还有电力。我从Shan Climac那里借来了这张图。过去25年，美国的电力需求基本持平。现在预计将增长40%。原因何在？数据中心、再工业化、自动驾驶汽车、机器人。我猜这个曲线将更加陡峭。我们认为这一点非常重要。让我们回顾一下1967年标志性的电影《毕业生》。您可能还记得。这是本杰明·布拉多克（本名达斯汀·霍夫曼饰）从马奎尔先生那里获得建议的场景。

I just want to say one word to you. Just one word. Yes, sir. Are you listening? Yes. Are you power?

我只想跟你说一个词。 就一个词。 是的，先生。 你听着吗？ 听着。是电力吗？

Okay. I think you know he didn't say power, he said plastics. But if you have young college graduates, I would tell them power is the way to go.

好的。我想您知道，他说的不是“电力”，而是“塑料”。但如果您有年轻的大学毕业生，我会告诉他们，电力才是未来。

黑石的AI基础设施投资布局

How are we playing this at Blackstone? Well, across the entire spectrum, data centers in the US, Europe, and Asia, all sorts of infrastructure around that. We've given billions of dollars to companies like Cororeweave, renewable energy, generation and storage, transmission, utilities, one of the most boring businesses of all time, is now a growth sector, and electrical equipment. David Foley will talk about this. As you build out the grid, lots of companies are going to need to grow and invest. Same thing with utility services. Lots of ways to play picks and shovels. The one other area that I want to stop on for a sec is what I'll call rules-based businesses. The marbles come down or they white, orange, gray, you name it. There's lots of opportunities with these type of companies. What do I mean by that? healthcare claims processing the technology bringing AI to a company like AGS health that we re recently acquired same story with accounting the ultimate rules-based business Citroen Coopermanman you can take these legacy businesses and transform them and then invest in some of the application software as well we invested in a company called normai which is going to make marketing compliance so much more efficient more and more of our investing is going to be guided in areas like this.

我们在黑石是如何投资于此的？我们在各个领域都有布局，包括美国、欧洲和亚洲的数据中心，以及围绕这些的所有基础设施。我们向Cororeweave等公司投资了数十亿美元，涉及可再生能源、发电和储能、输电、公用事业（这个曾经最乏味枯燥的行业现在已成为增长领域），以及电气设备。David Foley会详细介绍。随着电网的建设，许多公司都需要发展和投资。公用事业服务也是如此。有许多途径可以抓住“淘金热”的机遇。我还要简要提一下我称之为“规则驱动型业务”的领域。例如，计算健康保险理赔处理，将AI技术应用于我们最近收购的AGS Health这样的公司；会计领域，这是终极的规则驱动型业务，Citroen Coopermanman可以改造这些传统业务，然后投资于一些应用软件。我们投资了一家名为Normai的公司，它将大大提高营销合规的效率。我们越来越多的投资将聚焦于此类领域。

另类投资市场：增长、回报与驱动因素

Chapter 4, the outlook for alternatives. Well, you guys all know that this is a business that has grown a ton. It was $3 trillion in 2010. It's $13 trillion today. And of course, the question, why have they grown? Why do alternatives continue to grow? Well, it goes back to the Northstar from the beginning. It's all about returns. These are endowments and foundations over the last decade in the US. Those who are less than 10% allocated to alternatives underperform those more than 30% allocated by 270 basis points a year. So much of this has happened because of the strength of private equity, the ability to pick the right management teams, incentivize them, add value to companies, optimize capital structures. This has been the key.

第四章，另类投资的前景。大家都知道，这个行业增长了许多。2010年为3万亿美元，如今已达13万亿美元。当然，问题是，为什么它们会增长？为什么另类投资持续增长？这可以追溯到最初的北极星——回报。这是美国过去十年捐赠基金和基金会的表现。那些另类投资配置低于10%的机构，年化回报比配置超过30%的机构低270个基点。这一切的发生很大程度上归功于私募股权的实力，即挑选优秀管理团队、激励他们、为公司增值、优化资本结构的能力。这是关键。

私募信贷的崛起：效率与价值

But I often get the question, why is private credit having the same dynamic? Why are more people can't banks have a lower cost of capital? And here what I'd say is let's go to the farmer. The farmer starts with his product, his corn and his barn, sells it to a distributor who sells it to the supermarket, finally makes its way to our table. This is very similar in public credit, particularly in assetbased credit, where a borrower goes to a bank who then does a securitization or CLO and ultimately it makes it to your portfolio with lots of economics gone. What is private credit all about? Private credit is about you having privity basically with the borrower, with our help. It is farm-to-table. And there's no surprise why we have generated almost 200 basis points of incremental spread in private investment grade credit over the last 18 months with Gil and his team. So even as rates and spreads tighten that gap we think will continue to persist there'll definitely be a gap be because of this cost differential.

但我也经常被问到，为什么私募信贷也呈现出同样的动态？为什么银行无法提供更低的资本成本？在这里，我想说，让我们看看农民。农民从他的产品——玉米和谷仓开始，卖给分销商，分销商再卖给超市，最终才来到我们的餐桌。这与公开信贷非常相似，尤其是在资产支持信贷中，借款人去找银行，银行进行证券化或CLO，最终这些资产进入您的投资组合，但中间环节消耗了大量利润。那么，私募信贷的意义何在？私募信贷意味着，在我们的帮助下，您可以直接与借款人建立联系。这是“从农场到餐桌”的模式。难怪在过去18个月里，我们与Gil和他的团队在私人投资级信贷领域产生了近200个基点的额外利差。因此，即使利率和息差收紧，我们认为这种差距仍将持续存在，因为成本差异的存在，这种差距肯定会持续。

私募信贷的扩张与多元化

The other reason why private credit is going to grow a lot is because it's moving beyond its roots from direct lending from non-investment grade corporate credit to the real economy to aviation, credit cards, nav lending, digital and energy infrastructure. This is an enormous market where private credit will again have a meaningful competitive advantage and grow quite significantly.

私募信贷之所以会大幅增长的另一个原因是，它正在超越其根源，从直接贷款、非投资级企业信贷，扩展到实体经济，如航空、信用卡、导航贷款、数字和能源基础设施。这是一个巨大的市场，私募信贷将再次拥有有意义的竞争优势，并实现显著增长。

另类投资市场的规模与增长潜力

Now, another question I get is alternatives have grown so much, isn't there a risk that it's just too big? Well, I would point out at 13 trillion dollars today, the entire industry is equal to four public companies in the United States. And when you think about the aggregate market that we can go after, public equities, corporate and asset back credit, commercial, residential, real estate, infrastructure, it is a very big $300 trillion world. So, I still think there's plenty of room for this space to grow.

现在，我遇到的另一个问题是，另类投资发展如此迅速，是否存在规模过大的风险？我想指出，以目前13万亿美元的规模来看，整个行业相当于美国四家上市公司。当我们考虑到我们可以追求的总市场规模时，包括上市公司股票、企业和资产支持信贷、商业和住宅房地产、基础设施，这是一个价值300万亿美元的巨大世界。所以，我仍然认为这个领域有很大的增长空间。

财富管理业务的演变：401(k)与另类投资

One other area that's been getting a lot of focus, we've been investing in the wealth business for a long time. Now, there's a lot of talk about 401k. What's happening here? How's this going to affect things? If you look at the defined benefits world, the pension plans many of you work at uh in the US, it's a 12 trillion industry, about one-third allocated to privates. If you look at defined contribution plans, which are also 12 trillion and growing faster because of course there are fewer defined benefit plans these days, it's only 1%. So yes, our expectation is this will grow, but it's definitely going to take time. It's not going to happen overnight. And I would just point out we have seen transformations. We've seen evolutions of capital before in our industry. If you went back to BCP1 in 1987, our first private equity fund, 85% of the capital came from insurance companies, corporate pensions, and banks. By the time we got to the 21 billion BCP9 here in 2025, that number had dropped to 16%. Pension plans and sovereign wealth funds emerged. I do not think we're going to have this kind of change in the sources of our capital, but it just speaks to the fact as alternatives grow, there are new sources of capital that emerge and there are plenty of things we believe to invest in.

另一个备受关注的领域是财富管理业务，我们长期以来一直投资于此。现在，关于401(k)的讨论很多。这里发生了什么？这将如何影响事物？看看美国的养老金计划（许多人都在其中工作），这是一个12万亿美元的行业，约三分之一配置于非公开市场。再看看强制性缴款计划，同样是12万亿美元，并且增长更快，因为如今养老金计划越来越少，而强制性缴款计划的配置比例仅为1%。所以，是的，我们预计这将会增长，但这肯定需要时间，不会一蹴而就。我想指出，我们已经见证了变革。我们在行业内曾多次见证资本的演变。回到1987年我们第一个私募股权基金BCP1，85%的资本来自保险公司、企业养老金和银行。到2025年我们完成210亿美元的BCP9基金时，这个比例已降至16%。养老金计划和主权财富基金崭露头角。我不认为我们的资本来源会发生如此剧烈的变化，但这恰恰说明，随着另类投资的增长，新的资本来源会不断涌现，我们相信有大量的投资机会。

投资亮点：商业地产的周期拐点

Okay, what are some good places to invest in? We're going to talk about this much of the day today. The first stop I've got is commercial real estate. It's been three and a half very tough years for commercial real estate. But now this good dynamic has taken over which is new supply has declined by nearly 70% in this case in US logistics but it's really happening around the world. Cost of capital is coming down assets have been repriced. This is the time you want to be an investor in commercial real estate.

好了，那么有哪些好的投资地点呢？我们今天将花大量时间讨论这个问题。我首先要谈的是商业地产。过去三年半对商业地产来说非常艰难。但现在，一种良好的势头已经出现：新供应量下降了近70%，尤其是在美国的物流地产领域，而且这一趋势正在全球范围内发生。资本成本正在下降，资产价格已经重新定价。现在是投资商业地产的好时机。

投资亮点：二手市场（Secondaries）的吸引力

Next stop secondaries. another industry that has grown a ton from $23 billion to $200 billion over the last 15 years. Again, the concern, has this gotten too big? But I would point out it's just 1.5% of outstanding AUM that is trading hands. That compares to 100% of the stock market by value that trades hands. That's why we believe the discounts and secondaries will continue to persist.

下一站是二手市场（Secondaries）。这是另一个快速增长的行业，在过去15年里，规模从230亿美元增长到2000亿美元。同样，人们担心这是否已经太大？但我指出，目前交易的流通量仅占未偿资产管理规模的1.5%。相比之下，股票市场的交易量占其总市值的100%。这就是为什么我们相信二手市场的折价将持续存在。

投资亮点：印度的增长潜力

Third stop leaving the United States here, India. This is the G10. Clearly the fastest growing country. There's been some obviously tension geopolitically recently. But this is a country that is investing massively in physical infrastructure, legal, capital markets, infrastructure. There is a rising middle class here. This is a place we particularly like.

第三站，离开美国，来到印度。这是G10（指代全球十大经济体）中，毫无疑问是增长最快的国家。近期地缘政治方面出现了一些紧张局势。但这是一个大力投资于实体基础设施、法律、资本市场和基础设施的国家。这里有一个不断壮大的中产阶级。这是我们特别看好的一个地方。

投资亮点：日本的价值重估与企业行为改善

And it's not just India in Asia. It's Japan. But the story in Japan is not about growth. It's a story about trap value. It's about activism showing up here in a big way. The government embracing return on capital, investment over savings. We bought in Tokyo a super luxury real estate complex that was owned by a railroad company, a $2.6 billion complex. There are lots of assets like that that our private equity and real estate businesses hope to take advantage of in the coming years.

不仅是亚洲的印度。还有日本。但日本的故事并非关于增长。这是一个关于“陷阱价值”的故事。这是关于激进主义在此地大规模出现的故事。政府拥抱资本回报，鼓励投资而非储蓄。我们在东京购买了一个由一家铁路公司拥有的超级豪华房地产综合体，价值26亿美元。未来几年，我们的私募股权和房地产业务希望能够利用许多类似的资产。

其他潜在投资领域

Some other interesting areas to quickly hit on regional banks. There are in the United States more than 4,000 banks now with a more favorable regulatory environment. We believe we'll see more consolidation in that space. Lots of private credit opportunities. We've been buying a lot of real estate debt from regional banks. Second spot, life sciences. Why is this exciting? Well, AI is going to accelerate innovation, but trials, phase three trials cost tons and tons of money. The big pharma companies, the small life science companies, they don't have the capital, and they're just not that many people with the expertise. You'll hear about this from Nick today. Third area that I think is really interesting, providing capital to reinsurers. There's $800 billion of money in the reinsurance industry. I think the same kind of opportunity that exists in private credit bringing your capital directly to insurers and giving you higher returns on an uncorrelated basis. Our TAC ops team's done an amazing job here. And finally, absolute return strategies. as base rates come down. Places where you can get attractive returns, lower downside risk, things like macro and quant very helpful in the context of your overall portfolio to provide returns and balanced.

还有一些其他有趣的领域值得一提：区域性银行。美国现有4000多家银行，监管环境更加有利。我们相信该领域将出现更多整合。大量的私募信贷机会。我们一直在从区域性银行购买大量房地产债务。第二，生命科学。为什么它令人兴奋？AI将加速创新，但临床试验，尤其是三期临床试验，成本极其高昂。大型制药公司和小型的生命科学公司缺乏资本，并且具备专业知识的人才不多。尼克今天会对此进行介绍。第三个我认为非常有趣的领域是为再保险公司提供资本。再保险行业拥有8000亿美元的资金。我认为这与私募信贷领域的机会类似，将您的资本直接提供给保险公司，并在非相关性基础上为您带来更高的回报。我们的TAC运营团队在这方面做得非常出色。最后，绝对回报策略。随着基础利率下降，可以获得有吸引力的回报、较低下行风险的领域，如宏观和量化策略，在整体投资组合中提供回报和平衡方面非常有帮助。

潜在风险：AI估值泡沫与政府债务

Okay, I've talked about a lot of very positive things, but we are investors and there are real risks in the world. So, I just want to hit those quickly. First off, AI valuations. I mentioned it earlier, but there is no question that when you get this kind of excitement, you're going to get accesses. People are focused on this. We're focused on this. Will people start to speculatively build data centers? Today, they're leased. Will they speculatively build them? Will it start to create bubbles? We've got to keep our eyes on this. Second thing, excessive government debt. We're running deficits of four to 6% in major economies around the world. That could lead, of course, to higher long-end rates. That could lead to lower multiples. We're very focused on the exit multiples, exit cap rates. We're assuming

好的，我谈了很多积极的方面，但我们是投资者，世界上存在真实的风险。所以，我想快速提一下这些风险。首先，AI估值。我之前已经提到过，毫无疑问，当出现如此巨大的兴奋时，就会出现过度的投机。人们对此关注，我们也关注。人们是否会开始投机性地建设数据中心？如今，它们是有租赁的。他们会投机性地建设吗？这是否会开始制造泡沫？我们必须密切关注这一点。第二，过度的政府债务。我们在主要经济体中面临4%至6%的赤字。这当然可能导致长期利率上升。这可能导致估值倍数下降。我们非常关注退出时的估值倍数和退出时的资本化率。我们假设

潜在风险：地缘政治与技术颠覆

Europe much less exposure to tech, more regulatory issues, immigration challenges. Will we get far-left, far-right governments that will impact Europe? Something we're obviously keeping our eyes on. US and China, the two biggest economies in the world. I think we have to find a way to coexist. It's good to see there are talks going on now have been in Europe that President Xi and President Trump will meet. But again, something worth keeping our eyes on. And finally, the thing that keeps us up at night the most, underestimating technological disruption. That obviously is enormously important. We think about this all the time. We've now added to our investment committee memos that in the first two pages of the memo, you've got to have a paragraph on the AI risk of this investment, not just in our equity investments, but in our debt investments. And we're going back through our portfolios in each business unit thinking about what are the risks. We don't want to own those taxi medallions.

欧洲：科技行业敞口较小，监管问题较多，面临移民挑战。我们是否会看到极左或极右政府出现，从而影响欧洲？这显然是我们密切关注的问题。美国和中国：作为世界两大经济体。我认为我们必须找到共存的方式。很高兴看到目前欧洲正在进行会谈，以及习近平主席和特朗普总统将举行会晤。但这仍然是值得我们密切关注的事情。最后，也是最让我们夜不能寐的，是低估技术颠覆。这显然极其重要。我们无时无刻不在考虑这个问题。我们现在已经将要求加入投资委员会备忘录的规定：在备忘录的前两页，必须包含一段关于该项投资的AI风险分析，不仅针对我们的股权投资，也针对我们的债务投资。我们正在重新审视各个业务部门的投资组合，思考潜在的风险。我们不想持有那些出租车牌照。

总结：回归初心，坚守北极星

So, I will close with where I began, the north star here. Thanks to the tech team for this. Um, we continue to

那么，我将以我的开场白结束，回到我们的北极星。感谢技术团队为此付出的努力。我们继续