本周市场回顾：波动与泡沫迹象

Hello, my friends. Today is September 20th, and this is Markets Weekly. 各位朋友大家好，今天是9月20日，这里是市场周报。

This past week was an absolutely ebullient week in markets. 过去一周，市场表现绝对是波澜壮阔。

We had all-time highs in all the major indexes, and honestly, it seems like it's going almost parabolic. 所有主要指数都创下了历史新高，坦白说，市场走势几乎呈现抛物线式上涨。

I believe, and I think most people do, that this is obviously a bubble. 我相信，大多数人也认为，这显然是一个泡沫。

That being said, doesn't mean it can't go higher. 话虽如此，但这并不意味着它不能继续走高。

If you're bullish, you can say that we're in the early innings of the bubble; maybe it can still double or triple. 如果你是看涨者，你可以说我们正处于泡沫的早期阶段，也许它还能翻倍或翻三倍。

And if you're bearish, you'll say that we are in the later stages of the bubble, so things could unravel. 如果你是看跌者，你会说我们正处于泡沫的后期阶段，因此市场随时可能崩盘。

Now, it seems like the approximate cause of the ebullient asset prices has to do with the Fed. 现在看来，资产价格飙升的直接原因与美联储（Federal Reserve System: 美国中央银行系统）有关。

The Fed is cutting, telling you that it's probably going to cut two more times this year. 美联储正在降息，并暗示今年可能还会再降息两次。

And you know, maybe you can say that the economy is going to reaccelerate, things are going well, got to buy stocks. 你可能会说经济将重新加速，一切顺利，是时候买股票了。

However, though, if you look at the market pricing after the Fed meeting, you'll notice that interest rates along the curve are higher. 然而，如果你观察美联储会议后的市场定价，你会发现整个收益率曲线上的利率都更高了。

You've got the 10-year at 4.1%, even the 2-year higher by several basis points. 10年期国债收益率达到4.1%，甚至2年期国债收益率也上涨了几个基点（Basis Point: 利率或百分比变动的最小单位，1个基点等于0.01%）。

That's telling you that the bidding actually wasn't dovish; it was hawkish. 这表明，市场出价实际上并非鸽派（Dovish: 倾向于通过降息或量化宽松等宽松货币政策刺激经济）立场，而是鹰派（Hawkish: 倾向于通过加息或收紧货币政策来控制通货膨胀）立场。

But they did telegraph they were cutting, but they're cutting less than the market is projecting. 美联储确实发出了降息的信号，但降息幅度低于市场预期。

So interest rates rose throughout the curve, and in line with that, the dollar also strengthened notably, all things that you would see in a hawkish Fed meeting. 因此，整个收益率曲线上的利率都上升了，与此同时，美元也显著走强，这些都是鹰派美联储会议的典型表现。

And if you look at the meeting that day, you'll notice that stocks did sell off almost 1%, and then I think those people who are probably old-school macro guys then got totally run over by the apes, and we've been going up ever since. 如果你看会议当天的情况，你会发现股市确实下跌了近1%，然后我想那些老派的宏观分析师们被“散户大军”彻底碾压，此后市场便一路走高。

And how far we go, I guess we'll find out in the coming weeks. 至于我们还能走多远，我想未来几周我们会知道答案。

One other thing to note, of course, is that last week was a quarterly options expiry, probably the largest ever. 当然，另外值得注意的是，上周是季度期权到期日，可能是史上最大规模的一次。

And at the end of the month, we also have the big JP Morgan trade that everyone talks about. 而且，月底我们还有大家都在谈论的摩根大通大宗交易。

So there is the option market will have some meaningful impact on prices this past week and this coming week as well. 因此，期权市场在本周和下周都将对价格产生一些重大影响。

So we'll see how that affects things. 所以，我们将拭目以待这会如何影响市场。

So again, a lot of things happening underneath the surface. 因此，表面之下仍然有很多事情正在发生。

日本央行的政策转变：解除股票购买

Today, let's talk about two things. First off, let's talk about the pretty interesting shift by the Bank of Japan, in that it's unwinding its equity purchases. 今天，我们来谈两件事。首先，我们来谈谈日本央行一个相当有趣的转变，那就是它正在解除其股票购买。

And secondly, let's talk about the president's brand new immigration policy, where he's charging a hefty fee for H-1Bs, but basically in line with what he's been doing throughout his second tenure as president. 其次，我们来谈谈总统全新的移民政策，他正在对H-1B签证（H-1B Visa: 美国非移民工作签证，允许美国雇主临时雇佣从事专业性工作的外国员工）收取高额费用，但这基本上与他第二任总统任期内的做法一脉相承。

All right, starting with the Bank of Japan. So just to level set a little bit, although throughout most of the developed world, central banks have been cutting rates in the US and Canada and the UK and in Europe and so forth because inflation has come down, the economy has been slowing. 好的，我们从日本央行开始。首先，简单介绍一下背景，虽然在大多数发达国家，如美国、加拿大、英国和欧洲等地，由于通货膨胀下降和经济放缓，央行一直在降息。

In Japan, actually, the Bank of Japan is still in hiking mode. 但在日本，日本央行实际上仍在加息模式中。

That is because inflation is still a big problem in Japan. 这是因为通货膨胀在日本仍然是一个大问题。

Inflation has been above the Bank of Japan's targets for some time. 通货膨胀率已经超过日本央行目标一段时间了。

And as Governor Ueda mentioned at his speech at Jackson Hole, he thinks that an aging population is inflationary. 正如日本央行行长植田和男在杰克逊霍尔会议上的演讲中提到的，他认为人口老龄化是导致通货膨胀的原因。

So this higher inflation is going to be a secular problem that Japan is going to face. 因此，这种较高的通货膨胀将是日本面临的一个长期问题。

At the Bank of Japan meeting this past week, there was no rate hike, but he did get a couple dissents. 在上周的日本央行会议上，虽然没有加息，但确实出现了几张反对票。

So the market is widely expecting the Bank of Japan to hike very soon, and you can see that in the price as well. 因此，市场普遍预期日本央行将很快加息，这在价格中也能体现出来。

One other thing that they did, that was very interesting, is that they began to unwind their purchase of stocks. 他们做的另一件非常有趣的事情是，他们开始解除股票购买。

So as we all know, Japan suffered from disinflation, deflation for many decades. 众所周知，日本在过去几十年中一直饱受通货紧缩（Deflation: 物价总水平持续下降，货币购买力上升）的困扰。

And so the Bank of Japan began many aggressive experiments to try to boost inflation. 因此，日本央行开始进行许多激进的实验，试图刺激通货膨胀。

They bought a whole bunch of JGBs (Japanese Government Bonds: 日本政府发行的债券), even rolled out yield curve control (YCC: 一种货币政策工具，中央银行通过购买或出售债券来控制特定期限的国债收益率)。 他们购买了大量的日本国债，甚至推出了收益率曲线控制。

Interestingly, it was not to keep yields lower; it was because the yields were too low, and they had to roll out yield control to keep yields higher. 有趣的是，这并不是为了维持较低的收益率，而是因为收益率过低，他们不得不推出收益率控制以保持收益率在较高水平。

So they did all this interesting stuff, didn't seem to work. 所以他们做了所有这些有趣的事情，但似乎没有奏效。

And so they ended up buying stocks, trying to have maybe a wealth effect. 因此，他们最终开始购买股票，试图产生一种财富效应。

This started about a decade ago, and in the beginning, it was actually quite aggressive. 这大约始于十年前，最初阶段，他们的行动相当激进。

And so when the Bank of Japan began buying stocks, the stock market there roared, but it didn't last. 因此，当日本央行开始购买股票时，当地股市一度飙升，但并未持久。

The way they did this is they bought ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds: 一种在交易所上市交易的基金，通常跟踪特定指数、商品或资产组合). 他们通过购买交易所交易基金（ETF）来实施这一策略。

So they didn't want to be seen as favoring one company or another, so they just bought ETFs, a basket of stocks, to try to be more equitable. 为了避免被视为偏袒某一家公司，他们购买了ETF，即一篮子股票，以求更公平。

Now, if you look at their holdings of stocks right now, it's almost half a trillion US. 现在，如果你看看他们目前的股票持有量，几乎达到5000亿美元。

So they hold a ton of the Japanese stock market. 因此，他们在日本股市中持有大量股份。

At their meeting, they telegraphed that they're going to start unwinding their purchases. 在他们的会议上，他们暗示将开始解除股票购买。

Let's see, by how much? 我们来看看，解除多少？

About 600 billion Japanese yen a year. 每年约6000亿日元。

Sounds like a lot, but when you convert it to dollars, it's about 6 billion a year, when it comes to ETFs, and 5.5 billion a year in resale. 听起来很多，但如果换算成美元，每年大约是60亿美元的ETF，以及55亿美元的转售额。

That's a trivial amount. 这只是一个微不足道的数字。

So if you own, let's say, half a trillion dollars worth of stocks, and you're only selling off, let's say, 6 billion a year, it's going to take you almost a hundred years for you to unwind all your stock purchases. 所以，如果你持有价值5000亿美元的股票，每年只出售60亿美元，那么你需要近一百年才能完全解除所有股票购买。

So this is, at the end of the day, a very trivial amount that they are unwinding. 因此，归根结底，他们解除的金额非常微不足道。

However, if you look at their stock market, though, it was impacted by this. 然而，如果你看看日本股市，它确实受到了此消息的影响。

Stock market didn't like this, and it went down on the news. 股市不喜欢这个消息，并因此下跌。

This is just again to show you that stock prices in the stock market are largely psychological, even though the Bank of Japan is only trivially unwinding their purchases. 这再次表明，股市中的股票价格在很大程度上是受心理因素影响的，即使日本央行解除购买的金额微不足道。

This is impacting investor psychology. 这正在影响投资者的心理。

But what's more interesting, though, is if you look at the 10-year JGB yield. 但更有趣的是，如果你看10年期日本国债收益率。

Now the prospect of further hikes is sending the 10-year JGB yield to multi-decade highs. 现在，进一步加息的前景正在将10年期日本国债收益率推向几十年来的新高。

Now, as we know, the bond market is internationally connected. 我们知道，债券市场是国际互联的。

So if yields in Japan continue to rise, that's going to exert upward pressure on yields globally. 因此，如果日本的收益率继续上升，这将对全球收益率构成上行压力。

One other thing to note is that Japanese investors are huge, huge global investors. 另外值得注意的是，日本投资者是庞大的全球投资者。

They own a whole bunch of dollar assets, a whole bunch of euro assets, and so forth. 他们持有大量的美元资产、欧元资产等等。

So there's a line of thinking that if yields in Japan become more attractive, maybe they don't have to go so far into the world to get attractive investments. 因此，有一种观点认为，如果日本的收益率变得更具吸引力，他们也许就不必在世界各地寻找有吸引力的投资了。

Maybe they can sell some of their dollar investments, some of their euro investments, repatriate them, and just get a good yield from JGBs. 他们可能会出售一些美元投资和欧元投资，将其汇回国内，并从日本国债中获得不错的收益。

Now, to be clear, that doesn't seem to be happening so far, but eventually that could happen. 目前来看，这种情况似乎还没有发生，但最终可能会出现。

After all, the Bank of Japan is on a hiking cycle, and with their demographics, maybe they'll continue to hike. 毕竟，日本央行正处于加息周期，考虑到其人口结构，他们可能会继续加息。

So that could lead to a repatriation, strengthening of the yen, which could be at the expense of foreign assets. 这可能导致资金回流，日元走强，而这可能以牺牲外国资产为代价。

But you know, this is a slow process; we'll see how that unfolds going forward. 但这是一个缓慢的过程，我们将拭目以待其未来的发展。

美国总统的新移民政策：H-1B签证费与黄金签证

Now, the second thing I want to talk about is the very interesting immigration policy the president unveiled on Friday. 现在，我想谈的第二件事是总统周五公布的非常有趣的移民政策。

So in the US, if you are a company, you want to hire a foreign worker. 在美国，如果你是一家公司，想雇佣外国员工。

You give them what's called an H-1B visa. 你会给他们办理H-1B签证（H-1B Visa: 美国非移民工作签证，允许美国雇主临时雇佣从事专业性工作的外国员工）。

And H-1B visas are pretty common. There are several hundred thousand of them. H-1B签证非常普遍，有几十万份。

To get an H-1B visa, there's a lottery process, but in terms of fees, it's not super expensive. 获得H-1B签证需要经过抽签程序，但就费用而言，并不是特别昂贵。

It's a few thousand when it comes to government fees and lawyer fees. 政府费用和律师费用加起来也就几千美元。

The president announced that he wants to raise the government fee to $100,000, which is of course a huge, huge increase, but this is in line with what the president has been doing his entire year, right? 总统宣布他希望将政府费用提高到10万美元，这当然是一个巨大的涨幅，但这与总统这一年来的做法是一致的，对吗？

So the president says that he wants you to buy products made in America, stimulate American production. 总统表示，他希望大家购买美国制造的产品，刺激美国生产。

So he puts a big tariff on imports. 因此，他对进口商品征收高额关税。

Now that tariff, again, not necessarily borne by the foreign exporter, but at the end of the day is going to make domestic products more attractive relative to foreign products. 这项关税，再次强调，不一定由外国出口商承担，但最终会使国内产品相对于外国产品更具吸引力。

In that sense, he is supporting domestic production. That's his goal, right? Make America great again. 从这个意义上说，他是在支持国内生产。这就是他的目标，对吗？让美国再次伟大。

Now, this H-1B visa process is the exact same thing but on labor. 现在，这个H-1B签证流程完全是同样的事情，但作用于劳动力。

So he's basically putting a tax on foreign labor to make it more attractive to hire American workers. 所以他基本上是对外国劳动力征税，以使雇佣美国工人更具吸引力。

Now, if you look at who is getting all these H-1B visas, you'll see that they're largely tech companies. 现在，如果你看看谁获得了所有这些H-1B签证，你会发现他们主要是科技公司。

An interesting stat that I read was that 75% of H-1B visa holders are born in India. 我读到一个有趣的统计数据是，75%的H-1B签证持有者出生在印度。

So it's largely a program to import Indians into the US to work in IT roles. 所以，这在很大程度上是一个将印度人引入美国从事IT工作的项目。

Now, whether or not this is good or bad really depends on who you ask. 现在，这到底是好是坏，真的取决于你问谁。

So people like Elon and many other tech CEOs, who say that H-1Bs are really important, they help the US stay in front of the technological competition, and we're having all these smart people who work for us, that's really good. 像埃隆·马斯克和许多其他科技公司的首席执行官会说，H-1B签证非常重要，它们帮助美国在技术竞争中保持领先，而且我们有这么多聪明人为我们工作，这真的很好。

If you ask American workers, and you can get a lot of feedback from this from in the forums and so forth, they'll tell you that H-1Bs are just a way for tech companies to import cheap foreign labor so they don't have to pay higher wages to American workers. 如果你问美国工人，你可以从论坛等地方得到很多反馈，他们会告诉你，H-1B签证只是科技公司引进廉价外国劳动力的一种方式，这样他们就不用向美国工人支付更高的工资。

Now, what technically happens is that if you are an H-1B employee in the US, you're kind of beholden to your employer because you can't really leave easily. 现在，从技术上讲，如果你是美国的一名H-1B员工，你多少会受制于你的雇主，因为你不能轻易离职。

And so that gives your employer a lot of power. 因此，这给了你的雇主很大的权力。

Whereas if you were an American worker, you know, you don't like what's happening, you can go to another company. 然而，如果你是一名美国工人，如果你不喜欢现状，你可以跳槽到另一家公司。

And so the thinking is that what the American workers would say is that oftentimes the H-1B is just a way to keep wages low for the tech companies. 因此，美国工人会认为，H-1B签证通常只是科技公司维持低工资的一种方式。

So I think what the president is doing here is he's trying to strike a balance where if he raised the fee to $100,000, then the only way that we have H-1Bs is if the tech companies are paying for people who are truly, truly exceptional, people who are geniuses, brilliant people, who are going to come and just generate a lot of benefits for them. 所以我认为总统在这里做的，是试图取得一个平衡：如果他把费用提高到10万美元，那么我们只有在科技公司为那些真正杰出、真正聪明、能够带来巨大收益的人才付费时，才会看到H-1B签证。

Of course, tech companies are flushed with cash; a $100,000 fee is nothing. 当然，科技公司资金充裕，10万美元的费用根本不算什么。

So the very best people will continue to come to the United States through the H-1B program. 因此，最优秀的人才将继续通过H-1B项目来到美国。

However, though, if you are just a general entry-level tech employee, they're not going to be doing that anymore. 然而，如果你只是一名普通的入门级科技员工，他们就不会再这么做了。

And those jobs instead will go to American employees. 而这些工作将转而由美国员工来承担。

And if you look at the employment stats for newly graduated computer science people in the US, you'll note that the unemployment rate has gone up. 如果你看看美国新毕业计算机科学专业学生的就业数据，你会发现失业率有所上升。

And so many, many American computer science graduates are having trouble finding new jobs. 因此，许多美国计算机科学毕业生在寻找新工作时遇到了困难。

So this, in a sense, would incentivize tech companies to hire more of them. 所以，从某种意义上说，这将激励科技公司雇佣更多的美国毕业生。

So I think this is actually something that is pretty smart. 所以我认为这实际上是一个相当聪明的做法。

It's basically monetizing a problem, like he's done, let's say, for Nvidia, for example. 这基本上是在将问题货币化，就像他对待英伟达那样。

Nvidia wants to sell chips to China. The president is not sure about this, but, "Hey, why don't you just split some revenue to us so that at least the public gets some benefit?" 英伟达想向中国出售芯片。总统对此不太确定，但他会说：“嘿，为什么不把一部分收入分给我们呢，这样至少公众能得到一些好处？”

So again, I think this will have some impacts, basically a tax on people who import a lot of foreign labor. 所以，我认为这会产生一些影响，基本上是对那些大量进口外国劳动力的人征税。

So not too good for the big tech companies, but definitely good for American employees, which I think was the president's entire platform. 所以这对大型科技公司来说不太有利，但对美国员工肯定有好处，我认为这正是总统的全部政纲。

Now, in addition to this, there's also a very interesting new golden visa program. 此外，还有一项非常有趣的新黄金签证（Golden Visa: 一种投资移民项目，允许非欧盟公民通过在欧盟国家投资来获得居留权或公民身份）计划。

Again, this was initially floated out at a price point of about 5 million. 这项计划最初的报价约为500万美元。

I'm guessing 5 million was just too rich for most people. Now it's at 1 million. 我猜500万美元对大多数人来说太贵了。现在降到了100万美元。

So basically, if you pay $1 million, you can come and have a green card in the United States. 所以基本上，如果你支付100万美元，你就可以来到美国并获得绿卡。

So I actually think this is something that is a pretty good idea. 所以我实际上认为这是一个相当不错的主意。

So throughout the world, globally, golden visa programs are pretty common. 在全球范围内，黄金签证项目非常普遍。

Some very successful ones are, I would say, in Portugal and previously in Malta, where if you just pay some money, say, go buy a house, maybe buy some stocks in Portugal or some other places, you can have EU citizenship, very attractive for many expats, especially, let's say, wealthy Americans who would like to have access or be able to live in the EU. 一些非常成功的案例，我认为在葡萄牙和之前的马耳他，你只需支付一些钱，比如去买房，或者在葡萄牙或其他地方购买一些股票，就能获得欧盟公民身份，这对许多外籍人士非常有吸引力，特别是那些希望进入或能够在欧盟居住的富裕美国人。

Now, globally, of course, a lot of rich people everywhere in the world, say in China, in the Middle East, and so forth, and they're looking for other residences, maybe just a plan B. 现在，全球各地当然有很多有钱人，比如在中国、中东等地，他们正在寻找其他居住地，也许只是一个备用方案。

Maybe they just want to live in another country. For them, money is not a problem, and so they're happy to pay a little bit of money. 也许他们只是想住在另一个国家。对他们来说，钱不是问题，所以他们乐意支付一些费用。

Now, usually, though, to be clear, golden visa countries are countries that are not doing well financially, and they just want to have an extra, some extra revenue. 然而，通常来说，明确一点，黄金签证国家往往是那些财政状况不佳的国家，他们只是想获得一些额外的收入。

So it's very uncommon for a wealthy country like the United States to have something like this. 因此，像美国这样富裕的国家有这样的政策是非常罕见的。

But just $1 million to have access to, to be able to live in the United States, have access to the market. 但只需100万美元就能获得在美国居住、进入市场的机会。

So that, I think that's something that many rich people will gladly pay. 所以，我认为这是许多富人会乐意支付的。

Honestly, it's not that much money. 说实话，这钱不算多。

One thing that's not good about this, though, is that for many other golden visa programs, it's an investment. 不过，这项政策的一个缺点是，许多其他黄金签证项目都属于投资性质。

So you know, you get some return, or at least your money back after some years. 所以，你知道，你会获得一些回报，或者至少几年后能拿回本金。

Here, it seems to be just a donation. 而在这里，它似乎只是一笔捐款。

So you're actually paying a million dollar fee, or 2 million if you're a company sponsoring someone to have residency in the United States. 所以，你实际上是在支付100万美元的费用，如果你是公司担保某人获得美国居留权，则为200万美元。

So it is a hefty fee. 所以这确实是一笔不菲的费用。

However, there's a lot of rich people in the world, I think, especially people who, you know, maybe they made their money in illegitimate means, and they want to be able to at least let their family live in a country safe from investigation. 然而，世界上有很多富人，我认为，特别是那些可能通过非法手段赚钱的人，他们希望至少能让家人在一个免受调查的国家生活。

I think that it's quite attractive. So I'm pretty sure this will generate some revenue. 我认为这很有吸引力。所以我很确定这会带来一些收入。

All right. So that's super interesting. Let's see how this continues to evolve. 好的。这真是太有趣了。让我们看看这会如何继续发展。

Also, not talking about it this time, but the president also suggests some new industrial policy. 另外，这次不谈，但总统也提出了一些新的产业政策。

They're taking that $550 billion investment fund, which appears to be real, that Japan is putting up, trying to invest in more factories or maybe some kind of support for American manufacturing. 他们正在动用日本提出的5500亿美元投资基金（这似乎是真实的），试图投资更多工厂，或者以某种方式支持美国制造业。

So there's definitely some new developments in industrial policy that we'll hear more of going forward. 因此，产业政策方面肯定会有一些新的发展，我们未来会听到更多。

All right, so that's all I've prepared. Thanks so much for tuning in. Talk to you guys next week. 好的，这就是我准备的所有内容。非常感谢您的收看。我们下周再聊。