Tenex 专访:企业 AI 原生转型的最后一公里与工程师产出定价革命 Latent Space 2026-10-21

Tenex 专访:企业 AI 原生转型的最后一公里与工程师产出定价革命

关键字 ai-native coding-agent enterprise-transformation software-economics agentic-workflow
11 节

Tenex 的定位与产出计酬模式

主持人: 好的,我们正在 AI Engineer 大会现场,与来自 Tenex 的伙伴们聊聊。欢迎回来,Alex。

英文原文

Host: Okay, we're here at AI Engineer checking with Tenex. Welcome back, Alex.

Alex: 谢谢,感谢邀请我们。

英文原文

Alex: Thanks. Thanks for having us.

主持人: 你带来了你们的工程总监 CJ。欢迎来到播客!

英文原文

Host: You brought your Director of Engineering, CJ. Welcome to the pod.

CJ: 我是 Tenex 的特别项目负责人(Special Projects Lead)。

英文原文

CJ: Special projects lead at Tenex.

主持人: 好吧,特别项目负责人。明白了,你们就是突击队(SWAT team)。

英文原文

Host: Okay, special projects lead. All right, you're the SWAT team.

CJ: 是的,没错。

英文原文

CJ: Yes, yes.

主持人: Alex,你之前上过我们的播客,大家对 Tenex 的故事已经有了一些初步了解。但你能不能从头再做个介绍,在 2026 年的今天,你会如何向外界介绍你们自己?

英文原文

Host: So you've been on the pod before, and people are vaguely familiar with the Tenex story, but can you sort of reintroduce from the top what is the 2026, how you introduce yourself?

Alex: 好的。简单来说,Tenex 是全球顶尖大型企业的应用 AI 合作伙伴,专门帮助他们完成从“AI 缺位”(AI Absent)到“AI 原生”(AI Native)的彻底跨越。

我们的核心信念在于:AI 固然不可思议,但它目前展现出的只是一种原始智能(Raw Intelligence)。整个行业中最棘手的问题,始终在于如何打通将这种智能真正渗透到宏观经济各行各业中的最后一公里。因此,我们的定位就是充当关键角色,帮助企业理清并搞定所有这些复杂的技术与落地问题。

我可以爆粗口吗?就是帮他们搞定这一堆烂摊子(figure all this shit out)。

英文原文

Alex: Yeah, very simply, Tenex is an applied AI partner for some of the biggest companies in the world to help them go from AI absent to AI native. Our belief is that AI is incredible, but it is raw intelligence. And the hardest problem to solve is the final mile to actually diffuse it through the economy. And so our view is to act as the player to help enterprises to figure all of this. Can I curse on? To figure all this shit out.

主持人: 没问题,我们在 Apple Podcasts 上打上了 Explicit 标签。不过我最近发现 YouTube 对此有些反感。

英文原文

Host: Yeah, yeah. Yeah, we have the explicit tag on Apple Podcasts. Although I did recently discover that YouTube doesn't like it.

Alex: 噢,真的吗?

英文原文

Alex: Oh, really?

主持人: 他们挺在意的,对,你不能说 F 词。

英文原文

Host: They're so, like, yeah, you can't say the F word.

Alex: 那么我刚才搞砸你的视频了吗?

英文原文

Alex: So did I just mess up your video?

主持人: 还能怎么办呢?我不在乎。

英文原文

Host: What are you going to do? I don't care.

Alex: 好的。

英文原文

Alex: Okay.

主持人: 我们面对的都是成年人。CJ,最初是什么吸引你加入 Tenex 的?

英文原文

Host: We're for adults. CJ, what drew you to Tenex?

CJ: 我其实是这里的第一号员工。我不确定 Alex 和 Armand 当时是否已经正式定下了 Tenex 这个名字。

在加入 Tenex 之前,我曾经尝试创办过一系列初创公司,虽然最后都进了“初创墓地”,但最终演化成了我自己的一家工程咨询公司。我在那家公司花了很多时间做传统的软件工程,后来逐渐转向做一些 AI 咨询,并且越来越重度地使用 AI 工具进行构建。

从职业背景来看,我是一名纯正的软件工程师。当时我明显感觉到,我的产出效率越来越高、交付速度越来越快,但最终拿到的报酬反而变少了。因为在传统的咨询模式下,我是按照工作时长向客户按小时收费的。

当我第一次在 Twitter 上看到 Alex 发的推文时,我非常认同 Tenex 所倡导的价值观理念——他们试图根据工程师的最终产出给予奖励,而不是根据投入的时间付费。

如果快进两年到今天,大家都能清楚地看到,现在的工程师是如何通过并行化执行海量工作来大幅放大自身产出的。但在当时,市面上只有 Claude Sonnet 3.5 或 Gemini 2.5 Pro,这种趋势对大多数人来说可能并没有那么显而易见。但我选择做出这个押注:我相信凭借自己的技能储备,再加上更加重度地依靠 AI,我能实现高得多的产出,并最终获得更高的收益回报。

从那时起,我就彻底爱上了这种模式。我认为这正是软件工程的未来形态。归根结底,当 AI 能够解决所有这些具体技术问题时,企业必然只会按结果付费,他们绝对不会愿意继续为构建某个东西所耗费的冗长工时买单。

英文原文

CJ: So I was actually the first hire. I don't even know if Alex and Armand had the name Tenex quite yet, but I have, like, a graveyard of startups I tried to start before Tenex, ultimately culminating in like my own kind of engineering consulting company. And I spent some time there doing traditional engineering, eventually moved over to doing some of this like AI consulting and just like building more and more with it. I'm a software engineer by trade. And I just felt my output getting better and faster and ultimately getting paid less. Like I was charging hourly to my clients. and I really liked kind of the ethos of Tenex that Alex had first posted when I saw it on Twitter about kind of looking to reward engineers for their output as opposed to rewarding them for their time. I think you know fast forwarding two years you can see like how engineers can now parallelize a ton of work and just have a ton more output. At the time with you know Sonnet 3.5, Gemini 2.5 Pro, it might not have been that obvious, but I basically took the bet that I think with my skill set and leaning more into AI, I could have much higher output and ultimately have like a higher earning capacity to do that. And since then I've just like fell in love with that model. I think that's like what the future of engineering really looks like. And ultimately when AI is solving all these tech problems, companies are gonna pay based on outcome and they're not going to want to pay based on the time that's required to build something.

主持人: 没错。关于这个话题更具体的运作细节,大家可以回听我们之前的那期播客。你们当时是严格按照敏捷故事点(Story Points)来向工程师支付报酬的。

英文原文

Host: Yeah. So for more detail on that, people can refer back to our previous pod where you literally pay people by story points.

Alex: 是的。

英文原文

Alex: Yep.

主持人: 只要双方事先对故事点的估算达成共识就行。但这同样意味着,某些极其顶尖的 10 倍工程师一年可以赚到数百万美元,而另外一些工程师因为生产力没那么高,拿到的收入可能就会少很多。

英文原文

Host: And you just have to agree what the story points are. But that also means that some 10x engineers can literally make millions of dollars a year and some others may not make as much just because they're not as productive.

Alex: 是的,完全正确。

这里的底层逻辑在于:AI 本质上是对人类个人智力与职业道德的一种极高杠杆的放大押注。因此,在个人的创收能力上,你将会看到前所未有的巨大方差。

我们的观点是,我们的薪酬模式并不适合所有人;但对于那些坚决渴望做多自己的人来说——对于那些在软件工程领域拥有深厚基石,同时又不断逼迫自己去撬动前沿技术、在确保高质量输出的前提下极限延展自己时间效能的人——绝对没有比这更好的赚钱机制了。

英文原文

Alex: Yeah, exactly. The thesis is that AI is really just a leveraged bet on a human's intellect and work ethic. And so you're just going to have more variance than ever before in earning capacity. and our view is our model isn't for everyone, but for the person who basically wants to go long themselves, who has this incredible foundation in software engineering, but also is constantly pushing themselves to leverage the frontier, to stretch their time as much as possible while having quality output, there's no better way to earn.

从代码工坊到企业级 AI 转型服务

主持人: 现在的现状如何?上一次我们聊的时候,我记得你们公司大概有两到三个人年收入达到或超过了一百万美元。这方面有什么最新进展吗?

英文原文

Host: What's the state of, like last time I talked to you, I think you had maybe two or three people making a million a year or over a million a year. Is there an update on that?

Alex: 好的,我来为大家还原一下全貌。

我们在 18 个月前创办了 Tenex。最初启动业务时,我们本质上是一家 AI 驱动的外包开发团队(AI-powered Dev Shop)。最初的想法非常简单:软件工程行业就像是 AI 浪潮里的“金丝雀”。当时的部分动因在于,我的联合创始人 Armand 是技术出身,他很早就开始深度使用各类编程智能体(Coding Agents)。但他发现身边认识的一些同行依然在 IDE 里机械地敲代码,完全没有拥抱这一波技术革新。于是我们当时就想:为什么不去给那些尚未采用新技术的企业工程团队提供超级加持呢?

我们就是从这里起步的。随后,我们的客户画像开始不断向高端市场迈进,从最初的初创公司和中型企业,演变到如今:我们有 50% 的客户是财富 2000 强企业(Fortune 2000),另外 50% 则是年营收在 1 亿至 5 亿美元之间的中型企业。

这时候他们提出的需求,已经远远不止于简单的人力扩充或纯粹的 AI 工程研发了。他们要求的是将“企业 AI 转型即服务”(AI Transformation as a Service)全盘交付。

截至今天,我们团队已经发展到 75 人的规模。这其中 90% 的员工要么是核心工程师,要么是 AI 策略师(AI Strategists)——你可以把他们理解为懂业务的技术咨询专家。

事实证明,我们当初的预判完全成立:Tenex 内部最高薪工程师与最低薪工程师之间的创收能力差距确实拉得非常开。目前最高和最低之间大概存在 4 倍的差距。

英文原文

Alex: Yeah, yeah, yeah. So just to paint a picture, we started Tenex 18 months ago when we started the business. Really, we started as like an AI-powered dev shop. Really, like the original idea was engineering is kind of like the canary in the coal mine for AI. And part of the impetus was my co-founder, Armand, who's technical by trade, was like starting to use coding agents a lot. And then he had some people he knew that were still typing into their ID, like not adopting the technology at all. And so we're like, why don't we just supercharge a company's engineering org who isn't adopting this? So we started there. Then as we started moving up market from startups and like mid-market companies to now, you know, 50% of our customers are Fortune 2000. And then 50% are mid-market doing 100 to 500 million in revenue. They weren't just asking for basically staff org and AI engineering. They were asking for like AI transformation as a service. Today, the business is at 75 people. 90% of those employees are either engineers or AI strategists, which are basically think of as like technical consultants. And I think the thesis has proved out true, which is there's a very wide dispersion in earning capacity between the highest paid engineer at Tenex and the lowest paid engineer at Tenex. It's probably something around 4X difference.

主持人: 哦,还没达到 10 倍?

英文原文

Host: Oh, not 10X?

Alex: 还没有 10 倍差距。

英文原文

Alex: Not 10X difference, yeah.

主持人: 那是终极梦想了。

英文原文

Host: That's the dream.

Alex: 确实如此。但关于这个核心论断的一切都被验证是正确的。

在围绕“按故事点付费”的机制探索中,我们也获得了许多极具价值的认知。这种模式确实存在局限性,而这些局限也是我们预料之中的,我们正在思考未来该如何演进。

但总体而言,外界此前针对“按产出付费”模式所提出的各种经典担忧,并没有变成现实。人们最普遍的质疑往往是:“故事点是非常主观的,工程师要么会虚报故事点难度(Sandbagging),要么就会为了凑点数而狂抛一堆垃圾代码——勉强应付打勾,但根本不解决核心问题。”

我想说的是,由于我们引入了 AI 策略师这个角色,这两大担忧在实践中完全没有成为问题。我们在机制上让 AI 策略师与工程师形成了完美的相互制衡:AI 策略师的核心考核指标是客户留存率与业务增长。

实际上,我们遇到的真正挑战在于:如何合理补偿工程师在编码之外所耗费的大量时间? 比如进行系统架构设计、与客户开会沟通等环节。因此,我们必须在整体薪酬模型中补充更加精细化的维度,尽管目前大头依然牢牢锚定在最终产出上。

CJ,你有什么补充的吗?

英文原文

Alex: Yeah, exactly. but everything is proved right about the thesis. I do think like there's been interesting learnings around our model of paying based on story points where there are limits to the model that we knew would be limits and how we think about that moving forward. But overall, I think the concerns that people had around this model of like paying people based on output, like the classic concerns are, well, story points are subjective. People are going to either sandbag story points or they're just going to ship a a bunch of bad code. Like barely check the box. Exactly. Right. But not actually do the job. Yeah, exactly. And I would say those two concerns have not been concerns at all because of our AI strategists. We incentivize, I think, perfectly at odds with engineers where AI strategists are incentivized for like customer retention and growth. Actually, the biggest challenge has been how do you compensate engineers for all the time that's not spent coding, whether it's architecting, meeting with clients. And so that's where we've had to find nuance in the comp model, but it's still largely driven based on output. Anything to add?

CJ: 关于这点,我平时花了很多时间深入思考。

回顾我在 Tenex 的整个工作历程:最开始我写了海量的代码;接着不断写代码;后来写的代码逐渐变少;而到现在,我们所处的技术阶段是:只要你给模型喂入足够恰当的上下文,它基本上能直接帮你搞定 90% 的工程解决方案。

我坚信这里正在孕育新的机会:现在真正的核心价值,其实在于你能否沉下心与客户坐在一起,耐心倾听他们倾倒出的所有业务痛点和细节信息,然后将这些完整地传递给模型,从而逼近真正的最优解。

所以我预计在未来,我们会更侧重于审视产出的本质价值、实际运作效果和落地形态,而不再单纯依赖传统的故事点模式,尽管目前我们依然将故事点作为基础核算单位。

英文原文

CJ: Yeah, on that, I spend a lot of time thinking about this because if I think about my tenure at Tenex, I was coding a lot, coding a lot, coding a little less, and now we're kind of getting to the point where the models are more or less given the right context and can get you to 90% of the solution. and I do think there is some opportunity here to think about like really the value is sitting down with a customer, hearing everything that they can brain dump and then just providing that to the model to actually get closer to the solution. So I imagine, you know, in the future, we're going to start to look more at like true what this output is, how it works, how it looks as opposed to, you know, kind of that traditional story point model but still anchoring to those as the unit.

元工具链(Meta Harness)与工程记忆落地

Alex: 我不知道我们之前是否在节目里聊过这个概念,但我觉得大家一定会对我们在 Tenex 采用的工程工作流非常感兴趣——也就是所谓的“元工具链”(Meta Harness)。正是这套工作流,支撑我们在处理复杂且耗时漫长的长程任务时,依然能交付高价值的成果。CJ,你要不要向大家详细拆解一下我们的整套流程?

英文原文

Alex: I think one thing you'd also, I don't know if we've talked about this before, but like the, this idea of like the meta harness, which is like the, the engineering workflows at Tenex that we use that has allowed us to do, I think like really meaningful work on long running tasks. Do you want to just talk through like what our process is? Cause I feel like people would find that interesting.

CJ: 好的。我们最初做的事情,其实是试图对一系列技能(Skills)进行沉淀和标准化。我想现阶段大多数软件工程团队或多或少都在做类似的探索。

而在我们团队内部,这项探索逐步演化为一套存在于代码仓库中的高结构化规范文档,以及一套围绕它构建的专属 CLI 命令行工具。各类 AI 模型正是通过调用这套 CLI,来实质性地驱动各项工程任务的推进——无论是生成实现方案、绘制架构可视化图表,还是为客户生成项目汇报文档。从本质上讲,它把除实际编写代码之外的所有外围流程节点,都变成了可以在我们团队内部跨成员自动、标准化执行的机制。

具体而言,我们包含几个关键支柱:

首先是一份大型的权威规划文档(Canonical Plan Document)。它拥有严谨的骨架结构,不过随着底层模型能力的不断进化,我们在具体格式的硬性约束上反而进行了一定程度的松绑。

一旦规划文档确立,你就开始步入实际构建阶段。我们对智能体在执行任务时如何记录决策轨迹、记录正在进行的操作、实时追踪任务状态有着非常明确且强硬的约定。

英文原文

CJ: Yeah. So we basically started trying to kind of standardize a set of skills. Um, I think most engineering orgs have done something similar by this point. Um, and for us that grew into what is actually like a very structured set of documentation within a repo and then a CLI that's around it that kind of the models are using to actually drive the work that's being done, whether it's creating a plan, a visualization, you know, creating some readout for a client, effectively like building all the pieces of the process around actually writing the code to just happen more automatically and standard across our team. So we have a couple of things, Like one is this like big canonical plan document that has some similar structure, but I'd say as the models have gotten better, we've actually reduced the enforcements there in the structure. Kind of similarly across all of these. But once you have your plan, you actually build it out. And we have a very opinionated way on how agents will go and log their decisions and log what they're doing and just keep track of what they're up to.

主持人: 所有这些内容都会提交到 Git 仓库里吗?

英文原文

Host: Everything checked into Git.

CJ: 没错,所有记录都会全部 Check-in 到 Git 中。

这些记录之前主要采用 Markdown 格式,现在我更倾向于使用 HTML。我非常喜欢看到智能体吐出图文并茂的“连环画式图解”(Picture Books)。

所有这些物料都会被完整提交到代码库中。它所扮演的角色,就是让代码不再是唯一的系统真理来源。业界现在经常争论一个话题:我们到底还需要写文档吗? 有人认为代码本身就可以充当代码库的完整记忆。

但我坚信我们依然必须要有文档。你必须弄明白当初为什么会做出某项技术决策;你必须保留围绕那场架构讨论所沉淀的全部上下文背景。当这些结构化记录与代码库紧密结合后,一旦后续遇到疑问、需要解答技术疑惑,或者需要回溯某个功能当初为何如此实现时,我们随时都能从持久化记录中找到答案。

这些上下文永远不会只孤立地停留在某位工程师的大脑中,它们永远安全地躺在代码仓库里。正是这一点赋予了我们的智能体和自研工具极大的超能力,让它们掌握了充沛的上下文语境。而据我观察,许多工程团队至今仍然把这些至关重要的上下文零散地留存在口头交谈或个别人的记忆里。

我们的长期目标是持续推进这一流程,让所有的上下文完全收敛归集到一个地方,从而让越来越多的复杂工作直接由智能体自主驱动,不再需要我们人类在前期提供事无巨细的人工引导。

英文原文

CJ: Yeah. All of this is checked in. All of this is really kind of marked down for me now, more HTML. I like to see these picture books that the agents fit out. But all of that gets checked in and then it serves as this surface where not only do you have the code as the source, you know, I think there's a debate on like, do you even need docs? Like the code can actually be the memory of a code base. And I do think you do. You need to know why you made a decision. You need to know the context around the conversation that was had. But ultimately, that plus the code base, if there's a question, if there's something we need to answer, if we need to look back on why we did something, we just always have that in some durable record. And it's never in someone's head. It's always in the repo. So that just gives our agents and our tools these superpowers to have all the context that I think a lot of engineering teams still just have in conversations or have in their heads. And our goal is to kind of continue to push that forward so that all the context is in one place and more and more of that work is just driven by the agent as opposed to us having to provide everything up front.

Alex: 是的,非常了不起。

我们甚至有一种直接量化评估这套流程是否奏效的标准:那就是去观察全公司每位工程师的月均故事点产出趋势是否在持续上升。

英文原文

Alex: Yeah, amazing. And one way we even measure, like if any of these kind of like processes are working is are we seeing an increase in trend in average story points per month of every engineer in the company?

主持人: 没错。那么现在的数字大概是多少?比方说跟今年年初相比?

英文原文

Host: Right. And what do you think it is, let's say compared to started this year?

CJ: 我不太确定具体百分比,你觉得呢?

英文原文

CJ: I don't know. What do you think? Do you think...

主持人: 增长了 50%?

英文原文

Host: Plus 50?

CJ: 这个其实因人而异。我曾在 Twitter 上看到过一张有趣的配图:一个巫师正对着一颗水晶球施法,天空中飞舞着各种法器。在我的脑海里,我们团队某些顶尖工程师操控多个智能体时的状态,就跟那个巫师一模一样。

平心而论,从整体来看,尤其是今年以来,整体产出大约实现了 2 倍的翻倍增长。

如果把去年 12 月视为一个关键转折点——当时 Anthropic 发布了 Opus 4.5,大模型真正开始展现出自主接管长程复杂任务的硬核能力;而到了今天,我们用上了 Opus 5.5。这绝对是一款极其震撼的模型,能够极其扎实地搞定海量工作。在这段周期里,我亲眼见证了工程师的实际交付产出大致翻了一番——无论是在单位时间内完成的代码质量,还是他们现在所能覆盖的任务广度。

英文原文

CJ: I think, so it really depends, because we have some people that... There's some picture that I saw on Twitter of a guy over a wizard orb, and he's got these things in the sky. And that's how I think of some of our engineers when they're whipping agents around. I'd really say, overall, it's been a 2x increase, this year in particular. I think, basically, if you think of December as the Opus 4.5 moment where the models really started to take on these long-running tasks to today we're back to Opus, but Opus 5.5. I mean, that's just a magnificent model that can really do a ton of work. Over that period, I've seen the actual output of engineers, I would say, roughly double in terms of what they were able to do to what they're able to cover in the same time span now.

故事点通缩与主力模型演进

主持人: 现在的单个故事点所代表的工作价值,跟一年前相比还完全对等吗?

英文原文

Host: Is a single story point worth the same now as it was a year ago?

CJ: 我们一直在努力进行动态校准,这确实是一个非常微妙且复杂的权衡方程。

英文原文

CJ: We're always trying to calibrate. It's a tricky equation.

主持人: 那么故事点到底是在通胀还是在通缩?理论上来说,它应该是在发生通缩吧?

英文原文

Host: Is there inflation or deflation? I mean, in theory, there should be deflation, right?

CJ: 确实如此。我们大致就是顺着这个逻辑来考量的。

我们团队内部至少每个季度会坐下来重新复盘一次:我们界定这些故事点的基准条件到底是什么?我们到底该如何对这些工程项目进行精确估算?在这之间必须维持一种微妙的平衡:一方面我们要持续激励这种高效的高产出;但另一方面,随着模型能力的断代式增强,我们也必须客观校准我们向客户交付的实际业务价值。

因此综合来看,那大约 2 倍的效能提升在我们重新校准故事点估算时起到了重要参照作用。但如果我单纯回顾大家今天所构建并交付上线的核心功能复杂度,对比去年同期,那种颠覆性的差距简直令人瞠目结舌。

英文原文

CJ: Yeah. Yeah. I don't know. And that's roughly how we think about it. I would say at least once a quarter, we kind of sit down and evaluate, like, what is our criteria for these story points? How are we actually estimating these projects? There's a fine balance to be made between, like, still rewarding this output, but also as the models get better, we do need to be able to kind of calibrate, like, the value that we're creating. so overall I would say roughly that 2x has played a similar role in how we do these estimations but if I just look at some of the features and things people are building and pushing out now versus this time last year, it's insane what the difference has been

主持人: 关于这一点我们可以从很多角度切入讨论,不过我想先跟进一下你们团队的模型使用偏好,毕竟这永远是大家最津津乐道的话题。

我记得你们通常允许员工自由选择自己最趁手的工具,但你们内部大概有一份大家到底在办公室常用什么的统计数据吧。看起来 Opus 目前占据绝对领先地位。你能估算一下它的内部份额吗?

英文原文

Host: so there's a couple ways I can take this but I'm just going to check in on the model preference stuff since it's always a topic conversation I think you just let people choose whatever tools they like but then maybe you have some statistics on what is preferred in the office. It seems like Opus is leading. Can you care to estimate market share, whatever?

CJ: 目前团队里的绝对主流毫无疑问就是 Opus 5.5。

英文原文

CJ: The vibe right now is Opus 5.5, I think.

主持人: 没有人用 Fable 吗?

英文原文

Host: No Fable?

CJ: 我个人不太用 Fable,而且我觉得团队里很多人现在也都在主动放弃它。

Opus 太优秀了:响应速度极快,调用成本低廉,完美命中了我的所有需求标准。在此之前,我的日常工作流通常需要两到三款模型搭配使用——有的专门负责便宜快速的任务,有的负责攻坚深度思考的难题,有的用来处理特定垂直领域的任务。但现在的 Opus 5.5 几乎直接覆盖了我的全部需求谱系。

当然,我们团队中的许多人在需要进行计算机操作交互(Computer Use)这类场景时,依然会借助 Codex 等专业工具。如果单从工作流角度来看,将二者协同起来依然是最优解:无论你的主控驱动模型是哪个(我们大多数团队成员都是 Opus 5.5),引入 Codex 来进行代码审查并在本地环境里相互来回迭代打磨,往往能跑出最好的产出质量。但就目前而言,我们团队主要就是聚焦在这两款工具上。

英文原文

CJ: I don't particularly use Fable and I think a lot of people right now are just defaulting away from it. Opus is so good. It's fast, it's cheap. It kind of hits all my checkboxes. I would say I previously have had two to three models depending on whether they're cheap and fast, whether they're really smart, whether they can solve specific problems. And now Opus is kind of covering my full range. I think a lot of the team still reaches for tools like codecs when we need to do something maybe more in the computer use world. And really workflow-wise, I think using both is still the best option, whichever your driver is, which I think for most of our team is Opus 5.5. Using a codex to review and having them actually work back and forth on your machine, I think still produces the best results. But right now we're pretty aligned on those two.

主持人: 那你现在还在极度狂热地使用 AMP(AMP maxing)吗?

英文原文

Host: And are you still AMP maxing or no?

CJ: 噢,我绝对是在疯狂使用 AMP。

英文原文

CJ: Oh, I am AMP maxing.

主持人: 所以你是通过 AMP 来调用 Opus 吗?

英文原文

Host: So you're using Opus through AMP?

CJ: 是的,他们最近推出了新功能……

英文原文

CJ: So yeah, they recently...

主持人: 或者说 Opus 已经是 AMP 的默认内置模型了。

英文原文

Host: Or that's the default model for AMP.

CJ: 对,他们最近支持直接挂载接入个人的 Cloud Code 订阅。这对我来说是一个颠覆性的重磅功能提升。因为这样一来,直接把调用成本砍掉了大概 80%。

我之所以对 AMP 赞不绝口,是因为它彻底把所有复杂的计算环境从我的本地电脑上剥离出去了。他们拥有极其出色的云端环境架构——也就是所谓的“Orbs”。我们上周甚至还跟他们官方团队联合举办了一场线下酒会,能当面见到他们的团队并一起“Orb 出击”(Orb out),那种感觉太酷了。

英文原文

CJ: Yeah, they recently launched the ability to hook in your Cloud Code subscription. So that's been a pretty big game changer for me. Because that'll really cut your cost by like 80%. Totally. I mean, I love AMP because it takes everything off my computer. They have this cloud setup, the orbs. We actually co-hosted a happy hour with them last week, so it was cool to meet the team and orb out.

主持人: “Orb out”这种梗永远成不了大众流行词的。

英文原文

Host: That's never going to be a thing.

CJ: 别这么说,我正努力让它流行起来呢!

英文原文

CJ: Oh, yeah. I want to make it a thing.

主持人: 这可能是整个人类历史上第一次有人把这个词说出口吧:“我们在 Orbing out”。

英文原文

Host: This may be the first time in history that any human has said it. We're orbing out.

CJ: 我们当时确实是在 Orbing out!而且大家都说“这是属于 Orb 的时代了”(It's orbing time)。

不过抛开玩笑,这确实是我心目中最理想的工程交互界面。在模型底层,如果我调用 Codex,通常就是配合 Sol6 运行。

英文原文

CJ: We were orbing out. No, they do say it's orbing time. Yeah. But, yeah, that's my interface of choice. and models are really between that if I'm leaning on codex. It's Sol6 one.

主持人: 你尝试过 CloudTag 吗?难道你们不觉得很奇怪吗——Anthropic 居然从来没有像 Orbs 那样,真正把远程云端开发环境这件事做好?

英文原文

Host: Did you give CloudTag a shot? Isn't it weird that Anthropic never captured the remote environment thing in the way that Orbs did?

CJ: 我觉得部分原因在于,AMP 团队的产品理念极度专注且带有强烈的自身主见,他们并没有试图去打造一个放之四海而皆准的泛化方案。

像云端版 CloudCode 或者 CloudTag 这类工具,对于那些试图在非技术性任务上协同办公的团队而言确实很有价值。但我深爱 AMP 的核心原因在于:它完美整合了极其丰富强大的跨模型调度功能。在实际操作中,我可以让 Opus 编写主体代码,然后轻点切换到另一个 Orb 实例上,直接指示它:“去审查隔壁那个 Orb 里的产出”。所有这些模块天衣无缝地组合在一起,精准复刻了我在本地工作站上的所有习惯操作。而我在 CloudCode 的云端版或 CloudTag 上始终无法获得这种流畅度。

英文原文

CJ: Yeah, I think there's a piece of that, I think on the AMP side of them being very opinionated and not trying to build this general solution. Tools like CloudCode in the cloud and CloudTag, I think, provide value for teams that are really trying to collaborate maybe on non-technical tasks. But part of the reason I love AMP is that it has all these cross-model functionalities and I can do that. Opus writes it. I can even hop to another orb and say, look at that orb and review it. And all of those things still come together to basically replicate what I'm doing on my machine. And I just couldn't quite get there with a Cloud Code in the cloud, a Cloud Tag.

主持人: 明白,这很合理。

Token 支出与企业微调的商业伪命题

主持人: 还有另一个我今年开始长期跟踪的关键核心指标:那就是企业的 Token 消耗支出占员工人力成本的比例。不知道你们手头有没有这个具体数据?

大致来说,大部分传统公司平均每位员工每月的 Token 开销可能在 10 到 200 美元之间;而那些相对更加 AI 原生的公司如果折算成百分比,大约占人力成本的 10%;但在典型的原生 AI 初创团队中,员工的人力薪酬支出与 Token 消耗支出比率大约可以达到 1:1,极端情况下甚至能飙升到 5 倍乃至 10 倍于人力成本的 Token 消耗。你们目前的消耗区间落在哪里?

英文原文

Host: Yeah, yeah. Fair enough. Another thing I always track, I'm starting to track this year, is percent of, let's say, token spend to employee spend. I don't know if you have that number. So roughly, most companies are at maybe, let's call it $10 to $200 in spend per employee. The more sort of AI native ones would sort of convert that to a percentage, so roughly 10%. The average AI startup employee is about 1x in terms of employee spend and token spend, and then it goes up to maybe 5 to 10x in terms of token spend. Where are you guys in that range?

CJ: 我手头虽然没有立即拿得出手的精确数据,但如果纯粹从底层的原始 Token 消耗量来评估,我认为我们大致处于 1:1 到 2:1 的区间内。

英文原文

CJ: I actually don't have a number off the top of my head. I'd say we're somewhere between, if we're talking like raw tokens, somewhere between 1 to 1 and maybe like 2 to 1.

主持人: 真的吗?那已经相当高了。

英文原文

Host: Really? That's pretty high.

CJ: 我们平时经常深思的一个命题,就是到底在什么具体节点才值得调用最顶配的超大模型。我相信当下每家科技公司都在严肃审视这个问题。

不过坦率地说,最近随着 Opus 5.5 的普及,我们的整体调用成本被大幅拉低了。在此之前我们经历过一个阶段,当时全员都在重度使用 Astra 和 Fable,它们确实在当时给出了最惊艳的效果,但那批模型的调用开销实在是太昂贵了。

英文原文

CJ: And what we think about a lot is like when to reach for the biggest model. I think every company is starting to think about that. But I will say recently our costs have been driven just way down from Opus 5.5. We kind of had an era of like everyone was using Astra and Fable and they just gave the best results. But ultimately those models are expensive.

主持人: 自从我们上次聊天以来,很多人都陷入了那种疯狂刷 Token 的狂热期(Token Maxing),甚至搞出了各种 Token 排行榜。然而狂欢过后大家突然慌了神:“糟糕,我们的成本开支彻底失控了!”

这完全是世界上最容易预见的结果。你们当初在经历这个过程时感到过焦虑吗,还是说你们始终能从中获取极高且确定性的投资回报率(ROI)?

英文原文

Host: And like a lot of like, you know, since the last time we talked, a lot of people had this sort of token maxing error, token leaderboards, everything. And then they were like, oh, no, no, no, no. Now we have too much cost. And like, well, it's the most predictable thing in the world. Did you ever fear about it or like you were just getting good ROI regardless?

Alex: 针对这一点我有几个层面的思考。首先,随着我们团队员工人数的迅速扩充,我们绝对是切实担忧过成本问题的。

其次,尽管我们整个团队从来没有盲目追逐过那种为了刷 Token 而刷 Token 的时代狂热……

英文原文

Alex: this yeah I mean there's a few ways that I think about it is like we were for sure we were for sure worried about it just as like our headcount was growing and um I think also like even though our team I would say like I don't feel like anyone on our team ever really ascribed to like token the token-maxing zeitgeist, because...

CJ: 我自己倒是有过那么几次回合。

英文原文

CJ: I had a few moments.

Alex: 我也有过。但大家的心态往往是:“既然老板愿意掏钱报销,那我干嘛不放开手脚彻底折腾一番呢?” 因为你必须先去尝试那些稀奇古怪的极限操作,在踩坑中总结出切实可行的深刻经验教训,之后你才懂得该如何精准地降本增效。

英文原文

Alex: Yeah, me too. But it's like, well, if the boss is going to pay for it, I'm just going to go nuts, right? Because then you do the weird stuff so that you can scale back, but you have to do the weird stuff first to discover the lessons that you can take with you.

主持人: 完全同意。

英文原文

Host: Yeah, totally.

Alex: 这听起来可能有点离经叛道,我也非常好奇你们的看法。

我今天早些时候跟人探讨过一个旷日持久的行业大辩论——我保证这绝对跟我们的话题紧密相关:我们聊到了那些专门做数据服务的公司,比如 Micro One、Mercore、Handshake。大家都在探讨这些企业的长期商业生命力到底在哪里。因为他们目前 90% 以上的营业收入都全部依赖底层模型实验室的采购。

而这批数据公司的很多创始人公开宣称,他们坚信未来几年行业格局会发生惊天大反转:他们的大客户将彻底从底层实验室切换为广大的普通企业级客户。

但我脑海中紧接着浮现的一个必然推论就是:如果你相信普通企业将成为这批高质量训练数据的核心买家,那你就必须预设一个前提——各家企业在未来都会大规模自行微调专属的自研大模型。

那么核心拷问来了:企业自己做微调在什么场景下才真正具有商业合理性?

要么是你坚信微调带来的生成质量会显著超越通用大模型。然而,前沿大模型的基准水准线一直在以不可思议的速度疯狂上移,押注自己的微调质量能超越通用前沿,这本身就是一个胜率极低的赌局。

那么退而求其次,唯一的立足点就只剩下成本价格了。但这同样很难自圆其说:因为我们眼睁睁看着这些通用前沿大模型的单位 Token 调用成本在不断断崖式下跌。

所以我认为,我们内部之所以对成本失控不再感到焦虑,是因为我们似乎已经触达了某种帕累托最优平衡点——即在单项具体任务的维度上,调用成本正在急剧衰减。在今天的技术环境下,某个人想要仅凭个人行为疯狂刷 Token 从而给公司造成灾难性的财务账单负担,其难度已经远远超过了六到八个月前。我觉得六到八个月前才是真正需要对此提心吊胆的峰值危险期。你认同吗?

英文原文

Alex: I mean, this may sound crazy, and I'd be curious of your thoughts, but I was talking to someone earlier about the debate that continues around... like basically, I promise this is related. Like I was talking to someone earlier around the data companies, right? Like Micro One, Mercore, Handshake. And just like, what does the long-term for these businesses look like, right? Because like 90 plus percentage of their revenue is from the labs. And a number of these founders would argue that they think it's going to flip-flop where in the next few years, it's going to be enterprise-driven. And then like the thing that comes to mind, like the next thing I assume you have to believe if enterprises are going to be the core buyer of that data, is that enterprises are going to be doing a lot of fine-tuning on their own models. And then the question becomes, where is that going to make sense? It's either you think there's going to be better quality, which, again, like the bar is just going to keep moving on the frontier. So that's like a hard bet to make. Then it has to be price. The price one feels hard to me because it's like we're just seeing token costs continue to go down on these models. And so I guess part of the reason we're not concerned internally is because it almost feels like we've kind of hit this like Pareto point of like costs are coming down at a per task basis. Then it is way harder today for someone to token max and like really F the company in terms of cost than it was six to eight months ago. Like I almost think six to eight months ago was the point at which like you'd be really concerned. Yeah. Do you agree with that?

CJ: 我完全赞同。未来的演进路径可能存在几种分支走向:比如假设市面上突然杀出了一款超重磅的 Astra 6.5 或 Fable 5.5,它们的调用价格高得离谱,但交付出来的综合表现天下无敌,那我完全可以预见行业会再次短暂地倒向追求极致性能的高溢价方向。

但从大体趋势来看,我完全同意你的判断。你看昨天和今天刚刚发布的 Muse Wonder,它直接稳稳立足在最前沿的技术第一梯队,但其定价极其低廉。无论是在开源阵营还是闭源领地,各大厂商之间的竞争都已经进入白热化阶段。这种激烈的竞争态势必然会推动模型调用成本不可逆地持续下行。

更关键的是,当你抽丝剥茧去观察真实的商业世界时,你会发现海量具有极高经济价值的现实业务任务,靠 Opus 5.5 就已经能完全胜任了。这直接构成了一个边际效应悬崖:如果多花 10 倍的成本去调用一个所谓的超级智能模型,其最终结果仅仅是为了把电子表格里的几个数据单元格挪个位置,这在商业账本上真的能说得通吗?显然是绝对行不通的。

英文原文

CJ: Yeah. I think there's a couple ways like the future might play out there like if there's a world where there's a Astra 6.5 a Fable 5.5 and they're super expensive but they get the best results I could see us trending back that direction but generally I agree that you know you look at something like Muse Wonder that they launched yesterday today and it's on the frontier it's dirt cheap, the competition is heating up, both in open source and closed source. And I think that just will continue to drive costs down. And when you really look at it, a lot of tasks that are economically valuable can be done with Opus 5.5. So it's that cliff of like, would a 10 times smarter model really justify the cost of moving some cells in a spreadsheet? Probably not.

企业 AI 落地的四大里程碑与真实鸿沟

主持人: 明白。回到你们面对的企业客户以及整个市场生态的实际反馈:目前找上门来的客户向你们提得最普遍的需求是什么?反过来,又有哪类业务需求是客户主动找来、但你们会坚决回绝并表示“不,我们现阶段绝对不接这种活”的?

英文原文

Host: Right. So coming back to your customers and what you're seeing from the market, what is the most common ask that you guys get? And then what is something that people come to you with and you're like, no, we don't actually want that job yet?

Alex: 针对这个问题,我习惯于把企业对 AI 的拥抱吸收过程形象地拆解为一场多阶段里程碑的竞速赛跑。

特别是在这次 AI Engineer 大会现场,每当我向业内同行分享各阶段企业的真实渗透比例时,大家往往都感到难以置信。但实际的数据就是如此直观:

第一座里程碑:为全员铺设通用大语言模型(General Purpose LLM)。
在我们目前正在深入沟通的大约 100 家大中型企业中,已经有 90% 的企业成功向全体员工铺开了 Claude 或 Codex 等生产力工具。

第二座里程碑:真正教会员工如何使用它,即深入的员工培训与赋能(Training & Enablement)。
这个环节在业界永远得不到应有的重视与掌声,但它的战略重要性丝毫不亚于底层技术本身。在这一关上,实际达标的比例骤降到了 60% 左右。

英文原文

Alex: Yeah. So one way I think about this is I think about enterprises adopting AI as almost like these different milestones in a race. And I think, especially at AIE, when I tell people about what percentage of companies have reached these milestones, they're kind of like mind blown by it. But it's like, okay, first milestone in the enterprise AI race is just rolling out a general purpose LLM to your people. And I'd say of the, you know, let's call it 100 enterprises we're talking to today, 90% have rolled out either Claude or Codex to their employees. Then the next milestone is like actually teaching people how to use it, like training and enablement, which like never gets the love that it should get, but is arguably more important or as important as the technology itself. I would say that's at like 60%.

主持人: 哦,能达到 60% 已经算相当不错了。

英文原文

Host: Oh, that's pretty good.

Alex: 是的。一部分企业的心态是“扔给员工他们自己就会摸索明白”;但也有很大一部分企业已经深刻意识到:“我们必须系统性地培训团队掌握什么是技能(Skills),必须教会大家这些平台界面的核心高阶功能与用法。”

第三座里程碑:在通用 LLM 的基础上,为研发团队全面配备编程智能体(Coding Agents)。
最不可思议的事情就在这里:我在会场随口问了几个人:“你们猜猜看,有多少比例的企业已经正式面向其技术和产品部门铺开了编程智能体?”大多数人的直觉猜测都是“至少得有 70% 或 80% 吧”。

但真实残酷的数字是:仅仅接近 50%。这意味着在我们访谈的所有企业客户中,几乎每两家里就有一家要么完全没有落地编程智能体,要么他们内部推行所谓工具的简陋程度,基本约等于完全没有。

第四座里程碑:将智能体真正推向生产环境以承接非软件研发类的工作(Agents in Production for Non-engineering Work)。
这是全行业断崖式下跌最恐怖的“最后一公里扩散鸿沟”:这个数字瞬间暴跌到了仅仅 5% 左右。

你平时每天都在跟各类企业打交道,但现实是:我们所接触的绝大多数员工规模超过一千人的成熟企业,在生产线上根本没有任何一个真正脱离写代码、能独立处理实际业务工作的智能体在运行。

之所以会出现这种断层,原因主要有几点:

首先,这一整波 AI 技术浪潮是由极少数深度理解这项技术极限潜力的专业人士,外加一个规模庞大得多、完全被 FOMO(错失恐惧症) 情绪所驱动的人群共同裹挟前行的。顺便说一句,FOMO 并不完全是坏事,它客观上构成了巨大的向前推动力;但这也导致人们盲目跟风当下最火爆的流行语。在过去这一年半的时间里,大家每天都在高喊“今年是 Agent 之年”。

因此,各大企业的高管纷纷涌来向我们求助:“你们能帮我们在公司内部针对某些后台支持流程打造一款智能体吗?”这是目前最最普遍的核心诉求。这也是为什么 Tenex 如今承接的大量核心业务,正是帮助企业在工程研发体系之外,面向高频重复的业务流程真正将自主智能体部署交付到生产环境中去。

第二大核心痛点,则是权限管控与基于角色的访问控制(RBAC)。随着每位员工都拿到了 Claude 或 Codex,他们必然需要读取各类企业私有数据。这瞬间演变成了所有企业 CIO 和 CISO(首席信息安全官)的一场绝对噩梦。他们手头根本缺乏一个成熟的企业级网关控制台,来对数据读写权限进行细粒度隔离和管理。

英文原文

Alex: Yeah, yeah. Like there's some group there of companies that are like, our people will just figure it out. But then there's like a good chunk that is like, okay, we need to teach our people what skills are. We need to teach our people the features and functionality of these surfaces. Then the next after training and enablement within a general purpose LLM is coding agents. And the crazy thing is like, I was asking a few people here, like what percentage of enterprises do you think have rolled out coding agents to the engine product org in their company? And most people are like, it has to be 70 or 80%. The number is closer to 50%. Like every other enterprise that we speak to either hasn't rolled out a coding agent or what they are using is closer to not having a coding agent than having a coding agent. Then the next, and this is where like the biggest, I would say, drop off is, where like the biggest diffusion gap is from like raw intelligence to enterprise usage, is agents in production for non-engineering work drops to like 5%. It's like, I mean, you're in these conversations all day long, but like most enterprises that we talk to that have, let's just say more than a thousand employees do not have an agent in production that is doing work that is not building software. And so I think there's a few things. One is there is, because like there's just, this whole wave is driven by a combination of some small group of people understanding what is possible from this technology in a way larger group of people driven by FOMO. And by the way, FOMO isn't bad. It creates some forward momentum, but it also means that people will latch onto the things that are most in the zeitgeist. I guess now for the last year and a half, people have been saying it's the year of the agent or however long it is. Every year is the year of the agent. Like enterprises are like, can you help build us an agent for some back office task within the organization. That is one of the most common things. And it's why now a lot of the work we're doing at Tenex is deploying agents into production outside of the entor for companies for repeatable work that they're doing. The second is permissioning and RBAC. Basically, as every employee in a company has CLAWD or they have codecs and they need access to certain data, it has turned into an absolute nightmare for CIOs and CISOs. And they don't have basically a good gateway for easily doing, almost like a control panel for data permissioning.

主持人: 说白了,就是极其原始的问题:到底哪些数据是你被允许读取的,哪些是你绝对不能越界读取的。

英文原文

Host: Literally just what can you read, what can you not read.

Alex: 完全正确。这是一个巨大的死穴。所以我们团队在这上面倾注了海量的心血。

英文原文

Alex: Exactly. And that is a huge issue. So that's like something we spend a lot of time on.

主持人: 那么你们是为客户专门定制搭建,还是直接采购市面上的现成方案?

英文原文

Host: So you make them for people or do you like buy something off the shelf?

Alex: 最初我们是针对每家企业的特定架构进行纯手工定制搭建;但随着经验的积累,我们已经将其彻底产品化,目前我们拥有了一套自主研发的企业级安全网关解决方案。

CJ,在客户的一线反馈上,你还有什么需要补充的核心痛点吗?

英文原文

Alex: So basically we started by building Bespoke for companies and now we actually productize that where we have our own gateway solution. Yeah, exactly. Is there anything else that comes to mind that's like, we're hearing a lot from customers?

CJ: 你刚才总结得非常全面,特别是关于智能体生产落地的部分。

在实践中必然会撞上的一堵墙,我常常向团队这样概括:你永远不可能去自动化一个根本不存在的业务流程。

现实情况往往是:某个部门里有 40 个人在名义上负责同一项业务职能,但每个人在具体执行时各自遵循的步骤、方法和习惯全都大相径庭。在这种混乱状态下,你想要构建一个能够在后台自主、主动推进任务的智能体,其工程难度会呈指数级飙升。

你当然可以逐一坐到他们身边,把 AI 工具塞给他们,指导他们该如何辅助加速各自原有的个人工作流;但如果你想要真正释放出杠杆效应——即让智能体在后台自动跑完流程、将关键决策汇总呈递给你审核、你审查确认后反手抛回系统闭环,让人类真正晋升为所谓的“智能体管理者”(Agent Manager)——企业就必须经历本质蜕变。我们目前正处于迈向这一阶段的临界点。

但每当我们抽身纵观全局时,我们给予企业的第一条诚恳建议往往是:“停下来,我们首先需要为你们这个部门沉淀出一套真正严谨标准化的业务流程规范。在此之后,我们才能按部就班地将这套流程逐步交接给后台智能体接管。”

如果在前置环节缺乏起码的标准化协议,智能体在执行任务时就根本无从知晓自己是否做对了,我们也无法为此类系统设计自动化评估体系(Evals),更谈不上真正释放智能体接管业务职能所承诺的经济价值。

英文原文

CJ: I think that covered what we're hearing when it comes to like, particularly the agent deployments. I think one of the pains that just always gets discovered, I phrase it to the team, is like, you can't automate a process that does not exist. So when you have 40 people that are all roughly doing the same function, but they're all doing it a little bit of a different way, there's actually it's it's way harder to build an agent that's kind of proactively doing that in the background you can totally sit down with them give them the tools walk them through how they could augment their own workflow but when you really start to get the leverage is when you have these agents that are surfacing work to you you're reviewing it you're throwing it back and you become more of this like you know everyone's been talking about becoming an agent manager and i think we're on the cusp of that but when you zoom out oftentimes our recommendation to companies is like, hey, first, we need to build a process around this organization within your company. And then here are the steps for us to actually hand off that work to an agent in the background. But if we don't have some form of standardization, it's going to be impossible for the agent to know whether it's doing it right for us to build evals around this system and actually deliver the value that an agent that is doing this function would have.

垂直领域 AI 的商业困境与自建 SaaS 争论

Alex: 还有一件事我非常想听听你的深度见解。就在登台录播客之前,我们还在后台热烈讨论这个话题(CJ 肯定不介意我公开分享):

我们当时在深入探讨所谓的“垂直领域专属 AI 解决方案”(Vertical-specific AI Solutions),以及这类产品的未来商业前景到底如何。我们整体上对分散在各个垂直细分行业或业务职能中的专用 AI 软件表达了普遍的看空与悲观态度。

这种悲观预判很大程度上源于我们的独特视角:我们团队每天都一头扎在大型企业最核心的内部机理与技术泥潭中。在那里,充斥着常人难以想象的业务幽微细节、历史包袱与技术惯性,你需要去协调、理顺无数套割裂的陈旧系统以及形形色色的人员组织。

更为关键的是:当一个垂直细分市场的买家在今天采购一款专用解决方案时,他们内心所真正期待的,是一种百分之百贴合自身的“独一无二的定制化体验”(One-of-one Experience)。我们如今正身处一个所有人都在要求量身定制软件的崭新纪元。既然买方的预期是绝对定制,那么难怪当下的每一家软件企业都在疯狂组建庞大的前沿部署工程师(FDE, Forward Deployed Engineer)团队。当所有客户都开始对软件提出前所未有的定制化苛求时,传统专业服务与纯软件产品之间的边界正在迅速发生大溃退与大融合。

因此,当你审视那些主打垂直赛道的 AI 软件产品时,一个极其严肃的商业闭环问题就摆在眼前:

第一,如果每位客户都理所当然地索要一套专属于自己的定制版本,这类公司到底该如何维持原本属于纯 SaaS 软件的高毛利模型?
第二,我们凭什么认为底层的通用前沿大模型在未来的迭代中,不会把这些单薄的应用层垂直软件直接吞噬殆尽呢?

英文原文

Alex: And even one thing I'd be curious your thoughts on we were literally talking about this right before is and like uh cj will be okay with me sharing this is like the we were talking about like vertical specific ai solutions and like what does the future look like for these solutions and we we were generally expression expressing an overall bearishness with vertical specific ai solutions in different functions or industries and part of it is just from our vantage point of spending all day in like the guts of enterprises, there is so much nuance and so much inertia and so many systems you have to wrangle and people you have to wrangle. And also when a buyer of a vertical solution is expecting truly a one-of-one experience, we're in an age where people are expecting one-of-one software solutions. And so if you're expecting that, it's no wonder that every software company is basically building up a team of FDEs because there's just this convergence happening of services and software when every company wants all this nuance that was not traditionally expected from software. And so I think it's really interesting to think about, yeah, like four vertical specific solutions. Either one, how will they be able to do this at software margins if everyone expects a one-of-one solution? And also, why should we not expect like frontier models to just gobble them up.

主持人: 好的,为了让大家更容易理解,我们来举几个具体的现实案例:比如面向法律律师领域的 Harvey,或者面向医疗医生行业的 Open Evidence。这些都是目前在各自垂直赛道里公认的领跑者与大赢家。而你对他们持彻底看空的态度?

英文原文

Host: Yeah. So to give some concrete examples, you're talking like Harvey for lawyers. Yep. Open evidence for doctors. These are the classic examples of people that are winning their domains. And you're bearish on them?

Alex: 我总体上对这一类商业形态持长期的看空态度,没错。

英文原文

Alex: I would say generally bearish on them. Correct.

主持人: 哇,这可真够尖锐的。

但至少到目前为止,你的看空并没有应验,他们的增长势头依然凶猛。我认为其中的逻辑其实非常简单:关键在于对专有数据的独家获取能力——那是 ChatGPT 这类通用模型在公共互联网上根本抓取不到的私密壁垒,而这在传统行业中是极其普遍的天然护城河。

不可否认,Anthropic 和 OpenAI 如今也在不惜代价地四处收购那些同类的数据资产;但通用巨头在单一赛道上的精力投入,绝对不可能像这些垂直领域的专注团队那样深入和决绝。

此外,他们确实做出了许多具有行业深度的功能创新。如果你亲自上手用过 Harvey,你会发现他们独创的表格化审查(Tabular Review)视图;像 Legora 同样具备此类专有能力。我们之前邀请过他们的 CTO 登上这档播客,他们专门为目标受众量身打磨了大量特定的交互功能、专属 UI 界面与操作承载方式(Affordances)。他们的核心卖点说到底就是绝对的专注。

英文原文

Host: Wow. Well, so far you've been wrong. Yep. And I think the answer very simply is access to data that ChatGP is not going to have, which is very common. That is a moat. Obviously, Anthropic and OpenAI are also acquiring those same data sources, but they're just not as dedicated as these guys are going to be. They do have innovations. If you've tried it, Harvey, they have the Tabular Review. Legora also have them. We've had the CTO on the podcast where they have affordances and UIs and all that that is just customized because they only serve them. The pitch is focus, basically. Focus, affordances, maybe.

Alex: 你指的“操作承载”(Affordances)具体是指什么?

英文原文

Alex: What do you mean by affordances?

主持人: 就像你们公司倾注所有心血为客户解决落地到真实经济中的最后一公里一样,这些垂直软件厂商则是在软件产品交互层面上,解决特定专业人群的最后一公里。

只要专业人士长年累月在某个特定软件环境中接受系统化训练并形成肌肉记忆,那套工作流就永远不会轻易被取代。

举个切身经历:早年在金融行业做投资银行家时,我随时都可以直接从纳斯达克或纽交所的公开通道调取到一模一样的数据信息。但我为什么心甘情愿每年砸下 5 万美元去订阅彭博终端(Bloomberg)?因为所有的同行都在用它;它帮我把所有的信息流高度定制并聚合在了一起,专门为我的决策场景做了极致优化,从而最大程度避免我在操盘时犯下致命失误;同时它与我的整个交易系统、即时通讯以及金融快讯系统深度绑死。

英文原文

Host: In a way that you care about the last mile for your customers, they care about their last mile in terms of the software. And as long as people train in that software, like it never goes away. Like as a banker or, you know, in my finance career, I could always access the same exact information from the NASDAQ, from the New York Stock Exchange. But why do I pay the $50,000 a year for Bloomberg? Well, it's just like that's that's what everyone, all my peers do. And it's all consolidated for me and it's all specialized for me. So I don't make mistakes or whatever. or like it's tied into my trading system or my chat or whatever, my news system.

Alex: 不,我认为大家为彭博终端买单的本质原因,在于它是一个专属社交网络。大家最离不开的其实是彭博内置的私聊私信功能。

英文原文

Alex: No, I think people play for Bloomberg is the social network. I think people love the DMs in Bloomberg.

主持人: 这确实也是核心原因之一,不可否认。但作为一名前交易员,我很清楚我用它的核心目的究竟是什么。

所以我的观点是,这其中包含了大量的系统集成、定制工具链和深层工作流嵌入。正因如此,你很难全面看空他们当中的任何一个,最根本的原因在于:整个人类商业世界对于优质软件、对于能辅助自己更高效搞定工作的专属工具的需求是无比庞大的。

这其中固然有相当一部分需求会被像 Claude 或 ChatGPT 这种横向通用工具所覆盖,但在很多精细化的专业场景中,用户永远渴望拥有体验更好、打磨更极致的专业级武器。

我经常拿 Superhuman 这款邮件客户端的成功来做类比:全世界每个人都有免费的 Gmail,但 Superhuman 就是为那些整天泡在邮件堆里的人群,打造出了一款体验更极致、附加功能更强悍的豪华尊贵版 Gmail。这是一个切切实实能够活得很好的商业市场。它可能成不了全宇宙规模最大的超级独角兽,但关于这个市场的天花板到底有多高,理性的人完全可以保留不同维度的判断。

英文原文

Host: There's that, there's that. But as a trader, I know I actually use that for. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So, I mean, I think there's a bunch of integrations and tools and like, I think ultimately it's hard to be bearish on any of them, mostly because the demand for software, the demand for tooling to do your job is just huge. And some of it, yes, it's going to be fulfilled by horizontal generalized tools like the Claws and ChatGPTs, and some of it, you're just going to want something better. And, you know, I always think about maybe the success of Superhuman as an email client. Everyone has Gmail, but here's just premium Gmail with, like, more stuff for people who live in email all day long. And, like, that's a market. It maybe wasn't the largest startup in the world, but I think reasonable people can disagree how large each thing is.

Alex: 完全同意。唯一毋庸置疑的共识是:整个市场的总盘子必然会不可阻挡地持续扩容,水涨自然船高。剩下的争论无非是在这个膨胀的巨幅增量池中,各家到底能咬下多少百分比的市场份额。

英文原文

Alex: Yeah, totally. I think what's not to be disagree with is the total market's going to grow, and all rising tide is where they're tall boats. And then you're just talking percentage pressure market share at that point.

CJ: 我完全赞同这个观点。而且我认为这里存在一个非常清晰的本质分水岭:那就是从第一天起就原生基于 AI 深度重构的全新产品,与传统产品的修修补补有着云泥之别。

当我想到 Superhuman 时,我脑海中浮现的就是这种差异。我个人非常迷恋 Superhuman,即便我平时其实并不会在处理邮件上耗费过多的时间,但任何拥有极其炫酷的快捷键系统、能把操作体验打磨到极致的产品,我都会毫不犹豫地买单。

英文原文

CJ: Yeah, yeah, I agree with that. Totally agree. I think there's even, there's like a differentiation between some new app built from the ground up with AI involved. That's what comes to mind when I think about Superhuman. I love Superhuman. I don't even spend a ton of time in email, but anything that has...

主持人: 没错,你每月心甘情愿掏出 30 美元,就是为了彻底免去被杂乱邮件烦扰的焦虑。

英文原文

Host: No, you pay 30 bucks a month just to not worry about it.

CJ: 只要能提供极致的快捷键操控,我都爱不释手。

但退一步讲,当我审视市场上某些所谓的垂直 AI 软件时——特别是那些把“某个在特定垂直行业替你干活的智能体”当成最核心卖点大肆兜售的创业项目——除非他们拥有极其稳固且无法逾越的战略级合规门槛、专有私域数据孤岛或制度级护城河,否则在未来的长跑中注定会陷入巨大的挣扎与困境。

因为大家很快就会发现:伴随着基础大模型逻辑推理能力的指数级跃迁,企业要么自己能以极低的门槛在内部瞬时搭建出高度匹配自身逻辑的专属智能体,要么那些原本所谓的专业工作就会被底层通用前沿大模型的能力泛化直接囊括其中。

但反过来讲,只要你能围绕这项业务打造出深度的专属操作应用和工作流工具,正如我前面强调的——通过重构底层作业流程,并将强大的智能体紧密编排在这个新流程之上,这种产品逻辑依然立得住脚,而且这类产品必将大获成功。

英文原文

CJ: Anything that has cool hotkeys, I'm into. Yeah. But when I think about, I guess, products where they are really pushing some agent as the product that is doing work in some specific vertical, unless there is some very strategic compliance data, whatever it might be, moat, I think those are going to struggle going forward as we start to see quite literally the ability to either spin up your own really quickly, continue to compound as the models get better, or just those tasks start to fall into the world of the models just generally. But anything that has this app and tool built around it, kind of to my previous point, changes the process and has an agent on top of it. And I think that kind of builds on the same philosophy, and I think that can still be super helpful, and those will be successful.

主持人: 明白了。业内其实还有一种相关的观察视角,虽然不像你们说的那么锋芒毕露,但本质直指同一个内核:

归根结底,并不是用户抗拒使用你们打造的智能体,而是企业根本不想去迁就并使用由每一个第三方孤立开发的独立智能体。

现实是:企业真正渴望使用的,是自己内部早已经常态化运转的主控智能体,他们希望的是能够直接把你们掌握的数据资产无缝喂入到他们自己的智能体框架中去。

现在市场上每一家数据孤岛公司都死守着自己的一隅数据,然后拼命向客户推销:“求求你们用我们家开发的专属智能体吧,每月只需要付给我们 20 美元订阅费!”但对一家企业来说,你不可能在账单上无底线堆叠几十个每月 20 美元的独立智能体订阅。

最终的行业终局必然是:极少数核心平台型企业牢牢统治用户与系统的主入口交互界面,而其他所有的软件和数据服务都退居幕后,以插件或管道的形式接入那个居高临下的统一超级智能体中。

从这个视角来看,像 Salesforce 这样作为典型“记录系统”(System of Record)的代表性巨头,其战略决策就显得极具前瞻性:他们如今全面拥抱的路径恰恰是“你们不需要强行使用我们的前端智能体界面,我们将全面开放 API 与 MCP(Model Context Protocol) 接口,供你们自由将其接入到你们自己的核心系统与智能体中去”。这种打法其实非常精明。

英文原文

Host: Yeah. Oh, okay, okay. So there is a related view about this that maybe isn't quite as spicy as yours, which is basically it's not like nobody wants to use... People probably don't want to use the agent that you built. They want to use the agent that they already have, and they want to plug in your data into their agent. So everyone is sitting on some part of your data, and they're like, use my agent, please. Please pay me that $20 a month. But you can't just stack up all these $20 a month subscriptions. Ultimately, probably a small set of companies are going to own the interface, and then everyone just plugs into that overall agent, which I agree with. Then it's interesting that Salesforce, being one of the system of record companies, is the biggest probably or the most well-known, is embracing that path as like you will not use our agents. Like we will just provide APIs and MCPs for you to plug into your stuff. Yeah, which is kind of cool.

从 Kill My SaaS 到企业的真实认知负荷

主持人: 好的,其实我还想跟大家复盘剖析一个非常生动的实际案例。

我最近刚刚正式公布了我发起的“干掉我的 SaaS”(Kill My SaaS)挑战赛的最终成果。在这次比赛中,我们成功完整替代并下架了一款腰部中档的 SaaS 软件。我之所以把它定义为“中档腰部 SaaS”,是因为它绝非微不足道的简单工具,但同时它的系统复杂度也确实还没达到 Salesforce 这种巨无霸系统的量级,它恰好处在二者之间。

市场上存在海量这种中档 SaaS 工具,而这正是业界近期频繁热议“传统软件之死”的核心焦点。

当初那家外部厂商给我们的续约报价是每年 4 万美元。而我们最终仅仅耗费了 1,000 美元的开发成本就彻底完成了平替研发。这套自主重构的系统马上就要在我们的下一场全球大会中正式上线投产。

我们恰恰就扮演了那个最为典型的买家角色:我们要求拥有一款百分之百为自身业务量身定制的专属工具,我们对它有着诸多极致的个性化诉求,于是我们为自己的垂直业务从零打造了一个专属系统。到目前为止,它的实际运行状态相当稳健。

你们二位不妨来帮我挑挑刺:你觉得我们这种模式未来会在哪里遭遇滑铁卢?另外我也很好奇,CJ,如果按照你们的标准,这个工程量大概相当于多少个故事点?

英文原文

Host: Okay, so I actually wanted to also walk through one example. So I just released my results for my Kill My SaaS competition where we replace a mid-tier SaaS. I call it mid-tier basically in the sense that it's probably not that trivial, but it's not Salesforce. It's somewhere in the middle. And I think there's a lot of mid-tier SaaS out there that people are always talking about, like, the death of software, right? we were quoted $40,000 a year. We spent $1,000 to replace it. It's going to go into production for the next conference. So we are that customer that says, like, I want the one-on-one tool, and I'm expecting all these things. And we're building a domain-specific or vertical-specific thing for our business. And, like, so far it's going okay. Tell me where it's going wrong. Also, I'm wondering how many story points that is.

Alex: 哈哈,CJ 待会儿可以从专业角度帮你评估一下具体的故事点数量。

关于这个问题,我的核心判断是:一家企业在市场层级中越是处于高端头部位置,它想要彻底推倒重来、全盘自建替代现有成熟系统的门槛与阻力就越大。

这正是为什么当外界有一小撮人高呼“Salesforce 命不久矣”、“SAP 马上要被彻底颠覆”时,我完全无法认同的原因。在我看来,这些根基深厚的老牌巨头在这个技术周期中不仅不会消亡,反而会成为最终疯狂吸纳时代价值的超级蓄水池。而他们之所以能持续沉淀价值,是因为企业一旦在替换他们的过程中哪怕出现了一丝一毫的重大失误,所面临的可能将是数以亿计甚至数十亿美元的毁灭性财务与合规灾难。大企业在本质上是绝对厌恶风险的。

英文原文

Alex: Yeah, well, CJ can size up the story points on it. I mean, my general view is I think the ripping out of – my general view is like the more you move upmarket in business, the harder the proposition of ripping out and building from scratch gets. I agree with you. Like part of the reason when, as people have said, like a very small group have said, like Salesforce is really at risk. SAP is really at risk. Like don't agree with that at all. It's just like those businesses in my mind just accrue value in this moment in time. And part of the reason they accrue value is there's so much money at stake where if a company gets it wrong ripping them out, you're talking about potentially hundreds of millions or billions of dollars. You're going to be risk averse.

主持人: 完全同意。

英文原文

Host: Yeah, exactly.

Alex: 而针对那些腰部中档的 SaaS 工具,问题的核心在于:潜在的收益空间到底有多大,它是否真的配得上让一家企业将其列为最高优先级、专门抽调宝贵的工程资源去重写一遍?

不妨设身处地想一想:在一家大型企业内部,假设某款中档 SaaS 每年需要耗费几百万美元的采购预算。决策者面临的第一个灵魂拷问永远是:无论是从占整体总营收的比例来看,还是从总成本削减的绝对值来看,省下这点钱到底能不能在实质上推动公司的增长飞轮,从而配得上让你专门调拨核心工程力量进场自建?

答案注定是因地制宜的。对于某些特定企业,答案或许是肯定的;但对绝大多数企业而言,答案必然是否定的。

更关键的一点在于,除了单纯的自研能力之外,还有一个巨大的隐形杀手。最近大家都在疯传一个名为 RIA 的代码仓库,那是一个专门用来对既有软件进行全盘逆向工程的明星项目。甚至在 Tenex 内部,我们也曾完全从零手写打造过我们自己的专属 CRM 系统,以及我们自主运行的操作系统(OS)。

但在经历了一切之后,包括我们在内的所有公司最终都会幡然醒悟:购买成熟商业软件的最大魅力,从来不仅仅在于你从中获得的即时功能效用;更在于当它并非你的主营核心业务时,你完全不需要在后续漫长的维护升级、漏洞修补和技术债务中,消耗哪怕一丁点的脑力精力。

所以归根结底,这个算盘的核心就在于:潜在的战果究竟是否足够庞大,以至于足以弥补你从公司内部抽调工程团队去精心伺候一个非核心系统所必须背负的巨大认知负荷(Cognitive Load)?

显然,对于你们当前的业务体量而言,每年省下近 39,000 美元的真金白银,在你们眼中这笔投资回报是绝对划算的。

英文原文

Alex: I think for mid-tier, it actually comes down to what is the size of the opportunity, and is that ever going to be the worthiest opportunity to rebuild inside of a company? I'm trying to even think. In an enterprise, let's just say there's some mid-tier SaaS that is a few million bucks a year. I think the first question is, from a percentage of revenue or cost perspective, is that going to ever move the needle enough to basically allocate engineer or resource to? I think it's going to be case by case. I think for some enterprises, the answer may be yes. For other enterprises, the answer may be no. I think more of it is going to be the thing that gets companies outside of capability. Like, you know, we talk about how, I forgot who created the repo. That is basically the reverse engineer repo. RIA. Yeah, exactly. Like, everyone's talking about that right now. And even at Tenex, like, we built our own, like, CRM from scratch. What did we build? Our OS we built from scratch. And, like, one thing I think we realized, and every company realizes this, is one of the beauties of software is not just the utility that you get from it. It is all of the headaches you don't have to think about in maintaining it and improving it when it's not in your core. So I think it basically comes down to, is the size of the prize big enough to justify the cognitive load that is going to take from some amount of resource in your company to nurture something that is not core to your business? Evidently, like I think for your business, the difference of basically $39,000 a year, you're implicitly saying that it is worth it.

主持人: 这绝不仅仅关乎单纯的省钱防守,那只是最底层的防线。我更看重的是战略进攻层面:因为这款自研系统的诞生,让整个大会涉及的每一方参与者的端到端使用体验,都得到了不可思议的飞跃。

英文原文

Host: It is not just about costs. That's defense. I also think about the offense of like, no, actually our experience could be a lot better for literally every party concerned.

Alex: 完全理解,完全成立。

所以这其中的逻辑包含了两个关键维度:第一,我们不仅仅是觉得市面上的某些软件产品定价过高被当了冤大头;更关键的是,那些商业产品在极其漫长的时间跨度里,表现始终平庸至极。

英文原文

Alex: Totally, totally. And so, yeah, I think part of the thought there is actually just, there's a significant, basically it's not just that. So there's two pieces to it. One is like, not just we're being overcharged for a product, but it's like the product has been mediocre for a long period of time.

主持人: 没错!一款体验好上 10 倍的全新产品到底应该长成什么样?

英文原文

Host: Yes. What would the 10x better version of this product look like?

Alex: 是的!正因为我们自己就是软件的终极用户,我们可以以“分钟”而不是“月”为单位进行光速迭代。

英文原文

Alex: Yes, because we are the customers and we can iterate with like minutes and not months.

主持人: 绝对如此。

英文原文

Host: Totally.

Alex: 所以我觉得这里面真正微妙且有趣的分水岭在于:初创团队以及那些处于极速狂飙期的高成长型中型企业,完全有能力保持这种极致的敏捷身段去快速颠覆既有工具。

但对于大型成熟企业而言,由于他们原有的各项业务机能早已经深深板结固化,他们极少会主动拍板说:“嘿,我们完全有能力为我们正在使用的某款内部 SaaS 自研一套体验好上 10 倍的全新替代方案,甚至未来还能把它单独拆分孵化成一家独立公司去对外商业化。”大型企业的基因和运行规律决定了他们根本不可能以这种机制运转。

英文原文

Alex: I think, I actually think what's interesting is I think startups and like even like high growth, mid-sized companies can be nimble in that way. I think for enterprises where like they're so entrenched in a certain capability, rarely is that going to be the thing that, rarely are they going to say like, oh, we can create a 10x better version of this SaaS we use and we're going to spin it out potentially as its own thing or whatever it is. I just don't think enterprises function that way.

主持人: 确实如此。

自动化浪潮下的人类主体性与岗位再分配

主持人: 既然聊到了深度业务自动化,那么一个更加具有争议性、更加敏感的核心话题必然浮出水面:各大企业究竟是不是在借助这一波浪潮,实质性地彻底自动化取代活生生的人类员工?

一旦一切琐碎的流程都被彻底接管、各项业务都能平稳丝滑地全天候运转时,我们是不是就要开始大规模裁撤这批工作岗位了?我不知道你们二位在多大程度上能够公开谈论这个话题。

英文原文

Host: For sure. Yeah, it's been discussed. Actually, I would say that you talk about automation. The more spicy thing is are they automating humans, right? And once everything is automated and smooth sailing, do we replace those jobs? I don't know how much you can speak to that.

CJ: 我觉得可以从两个不可割裂的视角来看待这件事情。

首先,我从心底深处坚决相信:AI 最终必将为全人类创造不可估量的巨大福祉。它会极大赋能并增强人们原有的工作模式;在这个过程中,它绝对会重塑现有的工作形态,并必然导致某些岗位的迁移与替代。但我认为这更像是一场深远的劳动力结构再平衡运动,而绝非简单粗暴地将人类彻底剥离于生产活动之外。

前阵子 a16z 发布过一份极具深度的行业洞察,明确指出如今各行业的传统呼叫中心业务确实已经正式步入了无可逆转的断崖式萎缩期,越来越多的客服沟通与服务职能正在被智能体系统全面接管。

必须承认,如果你花费了整整一辈子的职业生涯倾注在打磨这项单一技能上,那么眼睁睁看着一项全新的自动化技术从天而降并连根拔起这项技能的立足之地,那绝对是极其残酷且毁灭性的打击。

但即便如此,在我们日常与企业客户深入探讨“某款智能体即将接管某项具体业务”的过程中,我们绝大部分的沟通重心其实全都聚焦在组织人才资源的重新调配(Reallocation)上。

现实中我从未见过任何一家有远见的企业会断言说:“太好了,一旦这道业务难题被自动化彻底攻克,我们手头这批员工就彻底没事可干了,商业世界里已经没有任何问题值得他们去思考和解决了。”

因此我们的核心解题方法,始终在于精准评估:我们现阶段到底能够自动化卸载掉哪些机械劳动?以及在这些负担被卸下之后,摆在企业面前下一个最棘手、最具商业价值的战略难题究竟是什么?

而且我认为在绝大多数大型商业组织中,这种解决问题并向更高阶进发的正向循环永远不会终结。只要企业还在渴望扩张,世界上永远存在着下一个需要攻克的堡垒。

英文原文

CJ: Yeah, I mean, I think there's two pieces here. I really deeply believe in the like, AI will produce good for humanity. It's going to augment people's jobs. It will absolutely change and displace. But I think it's more of a movement as opposed to just like cutting off work. I think A16Z posted something about how like call centers are truly now on the decline and AI is starting to handle more and more of that work. And ultimately, if that is a skill you've built up your whole career, that is devastating to have something come in and take that function over. That being said, part of what we do when we're talking to customers about, hey, an agent is now going to do this work is actually around reallocation. I don't think any business would claim like once we have this solved, there's nothing for this group of people to work on and try to solve. So our approach really is about what can we replace and then what are the next biggest problems to look at? and I'd make an argument in most large companies that that cycle kind of continues forever. There's always the next problem if I think about how we've grown.

主持人: 这就是所谓的“无限需求”。

英文原文

Host: Infinite demands.

CJ: 永远存在下一个未解的挑战。

我们所做的,是真正把那些在特定业务领域拥有极深造诣的业务骨干,从琐碎的泥潭中彻底解救并托举出水面,让他们能够真正跨出狭隘的单一部门视角,不再把目光局限在繁杂 Excel 表格里的某几个单元格数据上,而是以全局视角去审视跨部门之间该如何更高效地协同运转。

从长远来看,这恰恰能够帮助绝大多数员工长期保住自己的岗位,同时倒逼整个商业组织变得前所未有的敏捷强韧,从而有能力集中所有优质脑力去硬碰硬攻坚那些真正关乎生死存亡的庞大业务命题,彻底告别日复一日消磨生命的大多数机械繁杂事务。

试想一下:在一家传统企业的财务部门中,大部分员工每天的大半时间都被迫埋没在海量的电子表格填报中;但如果我们能把他们从这种低级事务中彻底解放出来,引导他们以战略高度去审视企业资金的最优配置流向,其所能创造的商业增量是不可同日而语的。

英文原文

CJ: There's always been another problem and actually taking those people that may have this like super deep subject matter expert and bringing them above water to start to maybe work more across teams or like think about parts of the business less so on like the level of a sell in a spreadsheet and more about how these teams are working together. Ultimately, in the long run, I think that keeps most people there and allows those businesses to become more nimble and actually tackle the big meaty problems and not the drudge of most people's day-to-day. When you're thinking about someone that's in a finance division, they're mostly in spreadsheets, but how can we elevate them to think strategically about the business and where money is allocated and things like that.

Alex: 是的。而且我始终觉得,每当全社会在严肃探讨所谓“岗位被替代”或者“人力重新调配”的大命题时,大家在潜意识里总是习惯于把它描摹成一种“单方面无情降临在弱势普通人头上的外在不可抗力”。

我个人极度反感这种叙事框架。因为我认为这种受害者视角的叙事,从根本上剥夺了普通人在面对时代巨变时所理应具备的个人能动性与掌控力(Agency)。

英文原文

Alex: Yeah, and I also feel like when we have these conversations around job displacement or job reallocation, we talk about it as this thing happening to people. And one of the reasons I don't like that is I feel like it doesn't give enough credit to people to have agency in their own lives, meaning I think...

主持人: 人类自身是完全具备主动调整适应能力的。

英文原文

Host: You can adjust.

Alex: 没错,每个人在当下都必须极其严肃地叩问自己。

每当我审视团队赋能或者员工技能重塑(Re-skilling)这个课题时,我固然认为企业雇主有不可推卸的责任去推动这项工作,因为企业需要以此来驱动自身业务增长;但与此同时,这也是每一位职场人对自己人生所背负的核心责任。

当某些行业专家信誓旦旦地安慰大众说“AI 只会替人类接管那些大家原本就不喜欢做的脏活累活”时,我认为这在某种程度上只是一种面对残酷现实的心理防御性自我安慰(Cope)。因为世界上绝大多数依靠双手谋生的普通职场人,根本没有那种“挑剔自己到底喜不喜欢这份工作”的奢侈特权;大家日复一日拼命工作,本质就是为了养家糊口、赚取薪水。

正因如此,我认为每个人只要条件允许,都必须坚定地展现出属于自己的个体能动性,在夜深人静时坦诚地叩问内心:

“在未来这几年里,我目前赖以谋生的岗位,其抗风险稳定性和被替代概率究竟有多高?如果我想要通过主动拥抱前沿技能来为自己的未来构筑起一道坚不可摧的安全壁垒,我现在最应该做的行动到底是什么?”

普通人完全拥有对自己提出这种清醒追问、并立即付诸坚决行动的绝对能动性。

英文原文

Alex: Yeah, people really should be thinking. When I think about enablement or people re-skilling, I think it is the job of an employer because they want to drive growth in their business, but it is also the job of an employee. And I think when people say that AI is going to replace all of the work that people don't enjoy doing, I think that's a little bit of like cope for the reality of just people are going to be put out of jobs because a lot of people don't have the luxury of liking or not liking a job. They do a job to make money. And also I think people, to the extent that it's possible, should have agency in saying to themselves, okay what is the the stability or replaceability of my job over the next few years and if i am to try to skill up in a way that i'm better protected what does that look like people have agency to say that to themselves and actually take action

纽约与旧金山:技术气泡与商业扩散的终极套利

主持人: 没错,这绝对是值得全行业每个人在当下深思并付诸实践的警醒箴言。

在放二位离开去忙碌之前,我还想跟你们探讨最后一个极具地域特色的话题——那就是纽约。有人称它是“世界上最伟大的城市”。你们平时在纽约无论是在工作职场中,还是在私下社交圈里,大家面对 AI 的整体情绪与真实氛围到底如何?

我自己常年生活在旧金山,那里的人们每天一睁眼脑子里全都是各类智能体。大家私下聚会争辩的核心话题永远是模型直觉感知、Grok 又或者 Muse,没有人会浪费时间去争论“你到底支不支持 AI”这种初级话题。

有时我确实很渴望能偶尔从旧金山那个极度狂热的信息茧房里跳脱出来透透气;但纽约同样是一个极具前沿先锋意识、思维高度开阔且永远面向未来的超级大都会。

英文原文

Host: yeah yeah yeah um i think that's a good message for people to reflect on um the last piece i wanted to touch on before i let you guys go is just new york um you know uh greatest city in the world according to some people some people what's the mood generally among the people they talk to, whether it's at work, personally, what's the feeling, right? I live in San Francisco all day long. Everyone's just in agents all day long. The discussion is instincts or grok or muse. It's not like do you like AI or not, right? And I feel like I want to step out of that bubble for a bit, but it's still New York. It's still progressive. It's still forward-looking.

Alex: 针对这点,我的真实感受是:纽约内部同样存在着一个前沿 AI 气泡,只不过这个气泡的物理体量要比旧金山那个小得多。

如果说旧金山本身体量就是一个遮天蔽日的超级大泡沫,那么对于我们 Tenex 团队而言,我们所处的环境更像是旧金山技术文化在纽约本土的一个精致微缩投影(Microcosm of San Francisco)。这在很大程度上得益于主动筛选并加入我们公司的顶尖人才特质,以及与我们紧密合作的客户群体和我们在纽约建立的高频互动圈子。

但不可否认的一个事实是:在纽约,这个先锋社群的整体人口占比确实要小得多。当你在旧金山走街串巷时,你会觉得那种科技原生氛围是全方位无死角包裹着你的,无论你目光所及之处皆是如此。

就像我今天早些时候在大会台上发表演讲时提到的:很多人之所以热衷于刷 Twitter 或 X 平台,是因为他们能在那里找到身处“未来边缘之城”(Edge City)的快感,觉得自己在提前经历未来;而 AI Engineer 大会则直接把这种感觉推向了极致。旧金山本座给人的感觉就跟 AI Engineer 大会如出一辙。

英文原文

Alex: Yeah. I mean, what I'd say is I feel like, basically, I would just say there's a bubble in New York that is a smaller bubble than exists in SF. If SF is like a big bubble, I think we at Tenex feel like, you know, we are in a, what I would say is like a microcosm of San Francisco because of the people that self-select to work at the company. And then also the companies that we're partnered with and like the people that we engage with in New York. But I would for sure say also, it is true that it is a smaller universe than like in SF, when you go to SF, it feels all encompassing where it's like everyone, everywhere you look, There was someone who, similar to AIE, how I was saying earlier when I went on stage, if people go on Twitter or X because they feel like they're on Edge City, they're living in the future, AIE is that on steroids. I feel like SF is similar to AIE.

主持人: 毕竟 AI Engineer 大会的参会人群,跟那些在人生某个阶段曾在旧金山深度生活打拼过的人群之间,本来就存在着极高的重叠度。我们大会的规模现在几乎占到了整个城市常住人口的 1% 左右了。

英文原文

Host: I mean, it's probably the overlap of AIE generally and people who have lived at some point in their life in SF is probably a very large overlap. We're roughly 1% of the city now.

Alex: 真的假的?

英文原文

Alex: Actually?

主持人: 没错,单看世界博览会周期的客流量,确实占到了这个比例。

英文原文

Host: For World's Fair, yeah.

Alex: 那简直太不可思议了。

但正如你所言,旧金山的文化底色和原生 DNA 决定了那里聚集着一大批自始至终生活在未来前沿的拓荒者。而在纽约,你同样能精准找到这个纯粹的先锋核心圈子,我们 Tenex 如今就稳稳扎根在这样的人群土壤之中。

我们团队的核心使命之一,就是全力将纽约打造成为全美乃至全球最顶尖的 AI 落地商业枢纽之一。因为这里汇聚着全美最庞大的商业资本与实体产业交易量;在这个地方,技术的规模化落地与扩散,才能够对整个国家的实体经济与 GDP 增长产生最实质、最震撼的推动力。

目前纽约的这层技术气泡体量确实还相对克制,我们把它视作自己义不容辞的拓荒责任,去不断壮大我们所在的这层气泡。虽然我不奢望它最终在全城占比上能完全达到旧金山那种全员极客的夸张比例,但我坚信我们完全有能力发挥深远影响,让越来越多的纽约各界精英真正提前生活在未来。

英文原文

Alex: That's crazy. Yeah. But like to that point, I just think like it is in the culture and the DNA of SF where a very big population of people live in the future. I think you can find that group in New York. And I think we at Tenex have found that people. And part of our goal is to drive like AI as a hub or New York as a hub for AI in the US because there is so much commerce here that like it is going to be a place where diffusion of the technology actually has such a meaningful impact on the GDP of this country. I think the bubble is smaller now and we take it almost as like a charge of ours to increase our bubble. Maybe I don't know that it's possible to get to SF size, but I do think we can have a meaningful impact on getting more people to live in the future here.

主持人: 这种趋势在物理实体世界中已经清晰可见了:你走在曼哈顿街头,巨幅的 AI 广告牌正在悄然抢占每一面墙壁。

英文原文

Host: There's a physical, like you see it on the billboards. It's slowly creeping in.

Alex: 完全没错!大家还记得此前引发全网轰动的 Friend 智能硬件广告营销战役吗?当时很多人在纽约街头对着那些广告牌疯狂涂鸦破坏。我甚至怀疑那次营销本身就带有一点故意煽动公众愤怒以引爆关注度的恶趣味。

但如今你在纽约街头看到的,全都是各种严肃、正经的企业级 AI 广告牌,公众对这一切也逐渐习以为常并感叹:“好吧,看来 AI 确实已经彻底成为我们现代日常生活不可分割的一部分了。”

英文原文

Alex: Oh, totally. People used to, remember the friend campaign where people would like spray all sorts of graffiti on that? I think that was like a little bit of an intentional rage bait. But now you have the unironic AI billboards and people are like, I guess that's part of life now.

主持人: 百分之百如此。

英文原文

Host: A hundred percent.

Alex: 所以我认为这孕育着一个巨大的时代机遇:把旧金山依托其独有的风险投资资本、顶尖科技巨头集群以及特有的人才集聚效应所淬炼出的那种锐气、锋芒和“活在未来”的原生探索精神引入纽约。

但在我眼中,我们此刻正身处一个极其美妙的结构性生态套利(Arbitrage)之中:虽然如果单论纯粹的技术研发土壤,纽约在 AI 领域可能只是一个相对较小的池塘;但如果论及商业价值变现与经济规模总量,纽约绝对是一个丝毫不亚于旧金山、甚至底蕴远比旧金山更加辽阔的惊人深水汪洋。

因此我向外界阐述自己在纽约扎根搞 AI 的核心底层逻辑,往往就是极其简单的一句话:

“我之所以选择在纽约全力打造 AI 事业,就是为了把那些常年沉浸在旧金山乌托邦泡沫里的技术天才们统统拉到纽约来,让他们在这里当面直视他们最真实的企业买家客户,并顺便接受一场关于真实商业世界的清醒洗礼!”

英文原文

Alex: Yeah, so I think it's like, I think there's an opportunity to bring kind of like the edge and like the, just like the living in the future nature that SF has created because of just like the economic climate that exists there because of venture, because of tech companies, then because of the people that are attracted there. but I also think of us as like we're in a, it's weird, we're in a smaller pond for AI but I would argue we're in as big of a pond if not a bigger pond for like commercial value and so I actually the way I put it is like the reason I do AI in New York is I bring all the people from San Francisco to come here and meet their customers and also get a reality check

主持人: 完全认同!这绝对是极其不可思议且利润丰厚的商业生态大套利。

英文原文

Host: Totally. And I actually think there's a really interesting arbitrage there.

Alex: 是的,绝对如此。

英文原文

Alex: Yeah. Yeah.

人才招募与未来寄语

主持人: 太棒了!接下来是惯例的招人时间,我知道你们团队永远处于对顶尖人才渴求的饥饿状态。

你们目前重点在招聘哪些关键岗位?跟以往相比有什么新变化吗?

英文原文

Host: Yeah, totally. Okay, awesome. Call for hiring. I know you guys are always hiring. Yep. What are you hiring for? What's changed?

Alex: 好的。我们正在 Tenex 大规模招聘前沿部署工程师(FDE),感兴趣的技术精英可以直接访问我们的官方网站 tenex.co 提交申请。

同时,我们也在持续吸纳杰出的 AI 策略师(AI Strategists)——本质上就是由具备硬核技术功底的技术咨询专家,去主导与大客户之间的各项核心落地项目与战略方案设计。

目前我们已经拥有了一支扎根在纽约本土、规模达 75 人的精锐战队。我们坚定不移地以纽约市为大本营。

最后,如果你是一家正在苦苦探索如何真正完成“AI 原生化转型”的大中型企业决策者,并且你此前已经做过多次尝试却始终收效甚微甚至屡屡受挫,欢迎随时与我们取得联系。我可以向大家拍胸脯保证:我们所交付的工程质量与商业成果,绝对远比市面上那些——我就不指名道姓了——传统老牌咨询公司要出色得多。

英文原文

Alex: Yep. We're hiring forward deployed engineers at Tenex. Just go to tenex.co. We're also always hiring AI strategists, which are basically technical consultants who are leading client engagements. And the team is 75 strong in New York City. We're continuing to make New York City our home. And then if you are an enterprise who is looking to actually get AI native and you've tried it, it's not working, hit us up. I promise we'll do better work than, not going to name them, but a lot of other traditional consultancies.

主持人: 噢,这话听起来火药味十足!CJ 呢,你有什么想补充的?

英文原文

Host: Ooh, spicy. CJ?

CJ: 我完全复议 Alex 刚才说的所有招募需求。在工程侧,我个人尤其在全力搜寻那些百里挑一的顶尖软件工程师。

英文原文

CJ: Yeah, I mean, I echo all of that. I'm particularly looking for engineers.

主持人: 等等,你前面提到的“特别项目负责人”具体负责什么?特别项目到底包含哪些工作?

英文原文

Host: What's a special project? What is that?

CJ: 所谓的特别项目,涵盖了除日常客户直接交付项目之外的所有战略性内部探索工作。

就我个人目前的大脑精力分配而言:重心之一是持续打磨和迭代我们内部的“元工具链”(Meta Harness)与工作流操作系统——也就是去主动探寻底层大模型当下所能触达的极限边界,并为智能体打造各种强力工具去指数级放大它们的工程表现;另外一个重心,则是主导研发 Alex 前面提到的内部企业级网关平台。

我们肩负的终极宏伟目标,就是将这些在后台全自主运转的超级智能体彻底渗透扩散出去,以一种真正稳定、安全且能切实解决实际业务痛点的方式,将它们扎扎实实地交付部署到全球各大企业的核心生产线中去。

英文原文

CJ: A special project involves anything outside of kind of our client work. So I think about my brain right now. It is building that meta harness and system internally that basically it's like find the bleeding edge of what the models can do and give them tools to augment how well they can do it. And then also internally working on the platform that Alex mentioned. big goal there, diffuse these background agents and actually get them out to enterprises in a way that's truly, truly helpful to them.

Alex: 没错,同时彻底攻克我们前面探讨过的所有企业内部极其混乱棘手的 IT 架构顽疾。

英文原文

Alex: Yeah. And solve a lot of those like messy IT problems that we hit on earlier.

主持人: 伙计们,一旦你们沉淀出了系统性的成熟方案,随时欢迎向我们 Latent Space 官方技术博客投稿!我们非常乐意为你们提供知识沉淀与技术分享的开放平台。

无论如何,今天非常感谢二位抽身接受我们的深度专访。能在纽约再次见到二位真是太棒了!

英文原文

Host: Dude, when you have some solutions, we take guest posts on the Latent Space blog. I'd love to welcome some sharing of knowledge. But otherwise, thank you so much for your time. And good to see you again in New York.

Alex: 彼此彼此,非常感激你的邀请!

英文原文

Alex: Yeah, likewise. Appreciate it.

主持人: 保持这个节奏,一年一度,每年一期!

英文原文

Host: Once a year, once a year.

Alex: 没问题,太棒了!

英文原文

Alex: Hell yeah.

CJ: 非常感谢!

英文原文

CJ: Thank you.

文中提及的人物和组织

公司/组织: Tenex

产品/模型: Claude Opus