加拿大外交政策新篇章:卡尼时代下的经济、人权与地缘政治权衡 TVO Today 2025-12-02

加拿大外交政策的转向:从女权主义到现实主义

前总理贾斯廷·特鲁多曾多次表示,他是一位自豪的女权主义者,并希望其政府政策能体现这一点。因此,在2017年,他推出了一项名为女权主义国际援助政策(Feminist International Assistance Policy: 将女权主义视角应用于加拿大外交政策和国际发展)的倡议,将女权主义视角融入了加拿大的外交政策和国际发展中。现任总理马克·卡尼最近在被问及加拿大是否仍沿用这一视角时,他的回答引起了广泛关注。

View/Hide Original English

Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said it a lot. He was a proud feminist and he wanted his government's policies to reflect that. So in 2017, he introduced something called the feminist international assistance policy, which applied a feminist lens to Canada's foreign policy and international development. Current Prime Minister Mark Carney recently made headlines after he was asked whether Canada still applies that same lens. Here's part of his answer.

马克·卡尼: “是的,我们的外交政策中确实有这方面的内容,但我不会将我们的外交政策描述为女权主义外交政策。”

View/Hide Original English

>> Yes, we have that aspect to our foreign policy. Um, but I wouldn't describe our foreign policy as feminist foreign policy.

那么,如果加拿大不再奉行女权主义外交政策,它将奉行何种政策?卡尼主义会是什么样子?全球人权又将如何融入其中?

View/Hide Original English

So, if Canada doesn't have a feminist foreign policy, what kind does it have? What will a carne doctrine look like? And how does global human rights factor into all of this?

多年来,加拿大和印度之间的关系一直紧张,但现在似乎正在发生变化。马克·卡尼总理邀请印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪参加了六月的七国集团(G7: 由世界七个主要发达国家组成的政府间政治经济论坛)峰会,两国领导人举行了会晤,随后又在二十国集团(G20: 由世界主要经济体组成的国际经济合作论坛)峰会上再次会面。莫迪总理现已邀请卡尼总理于2026年访问印度,两国在中断15年后同意恢复全面的贸易谈判。那么,新的双边关系会是什么样子?这种关系持续下去的可能性有多大?欢迎收看《要闻速览》(The Rundown: 本视频节目的名称)。

View/Hide Original English

Then, Canada and India have had a strained relationship for years. But that all seems to be changing. Mark Carney invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the G7 in June where they had a meeting and then they met again at the G20 summit. Modi has now invited Carney to visit India in 2026 and they have agreed after 15 years to resume comprehensive trade talks. So what could a new bilateral relationship look like and what are the chances it'll last? Welcome to the rundown.

经济优先与人权考量:卡尼外交政策的挑战

去年十月,卡尼总理明确了他的首要任务。

View/Hide Original English

Back in October, Prime Minister Carney identified his top priority.

马克·卡尼: “我的首要任务是通过在国内建设和在国外建立新的伙伴关系,让加拿大人重新掌控局面,这样我们就不会依赖美国。”

View/Hide Original English

>> My number one focus is to put Canadians back in control by building here at home and building new partnerships abroad so that we're not reliant on the United States.

他确实正在建立新的伙伴关系,例如与阿拉伯联合酋长国(一个被指控在苏丹支持准军事部队并杀害数千平民的国家)签订了一项价值数十亿美元的关键矿产协议(critical mineral agreement: 旨在确保关键矿产供应链安全的贸易协议)。卡尼总理能否在优先考虑经济利益的同时,继续支持国际人权?为了追求更多的全球贸易,加拿大将不得不做出怎样的权衡?

View/Hide Original English

He's definitely building new partnerships like a billion-dollar critical mineral agreement with the United Arab Emirates, a country accused of supporting a paramilitary force in Sudan that has killed thousands of civilians. Can Prime Minister Carney prioritize economic concerns while still backing international human rights? What kind of trade-offs will Canada have to make to chase more global trade? I got insight from Shannon Gormley, foreign affairs journalist and Toronto Star contributor, and Akos Maharaj, ambassador at large for the global organization of parliamentarians against corruption and senior fellow at the monk school of global affairs.

我从外交事务记者、《多伦多星报》(Toronto Star: 加拿大发行量最大的报纸之一)撰稿人香农·戈姆利,以及全球反腐议员组织(Global Organization of Parliamentarians Against Corruption: 旨在促进全球议员合作打击腐败的国际组织)特命大使兼蒙克全球事务学院(Monk School of Global Affairs: 多伦多大学下属的国际事务研究机构)高级研究员阿科斯·马哈拉杰那里获得了见解。

View/Hide Original English

I got insight from Shannon Gormley, foreign affairs journalist and Toronto Star contributor, and Akos Maharaj, ambassador at large for the global organization of parliamentarians against corruption and senior fellow at the monk school of global affairs.

主持人: 香农、阿科斯,欢迎来到节目。你们好吗?

View/Hide Original English

>> Shannon Akos, welcome to the program. How are you guys doing?

香农·戈姆利: 很好,谢谢。

View/Hide Original English

>> Very well, thank you.

阿科斯·马哈拉杰: 谢谢邀请。

View/Hide Original English

>> Thank you for having us.

主持人: 香农,我们从你开始。在最近的G20峰会上,马克·卡尼总理表示加拿大不再奉行女权主义外交政策,这引起了一些轰动。你对此有何看法?

View/Hide Original English

>> Shannon, we're going to start with you. At the recent G20 summit, uh, Prime Minister Mark Carney created some buzz when he said that Canada no longer has a feminist foreign policy. What do you think of that?

香农·戈姆利: 我们现在正经历着二战以来最危险的时刻。我们的邻国是地球上最强大的国家,它一直在威胁要吞并我们以及我们的各种盟友。欧洲正在发生一场热战,同时整个欧洲也存在一场混合战争。与此同时,在北方,我们不得不担心北极地区。总理正是在这种极端危急的背景下被问到这个问题的。所以他并没有说他正在推行反女权主义外交政策。他说他的外交政策有一部分是女权主义的,但这并不是定义他外交政策的全部。我的理解是,在历史的这个时刻,一位政治领导人如果说女权主义是他世界范围内的首要关注点,那将是很奇怪的。

View/Hide Original English

>> We are living in right now the most dangerous moment since the Second World War. So, our neighbor is the most powerful country on earth and it has been threatening to annex us as well as various allies. Um, we have a hot war in Europe as well as a hybrid war um throughout all of Europe. Um, and meanwhile to our north, we're having to worry about the Arctic. Um, that question was posed to the prime minister in this context of extreme and critical danger. And so he didn't say that he was pursuing an anti-feminist foreign policy. He said that part of his foreign policy is feminist, but that that's not what defines his foreign policy. And my reading of it is that at this moment in history, it would be strange for a political leader to say that feminism was his overarching concern in the world.

主持人: 阿科斯,有人可能会说,这或许是卡尼总理与特鲁多划清界限的一种方式。这样说公平吗?

View/Hide Original English

>> Now, Akos, some would say that this was maybe perhaps a way for Prime Minister Carney to distinguish himself uh from Trudeau. Fair to say? I suspect that's at least part of the case.

阿科斯·马哈拉杰: 我认为这至少是部分原因。他确实感到有必要与一位不受欢迎的前任保持距离,特别是考虑到这位前任是他自己政党的领导人。但除此之外,我认为贾斯廷·特鲁多在外交政策任期内的一个缺点,往往是人们认为(在我看来,这种看法是合理的)他的言行之间几乎没有关联。

View/Hide Original English

I suspect that's at least part of the case. He does feel a need to distance himself from an unpopular predecessor, especially since that predecessor was a member a leader of his own political party. But in addition to that, I think that one of the downsides to Justin Trudeau's tenure in foreign policy was often a perception, a justified perception in my view, that there were little connect, there was little connection between his words and his deeds.

“女权主义外交政策”一词最早由瑞典于2014年提出,也就是特鲁多当选前一年,他们双手拥抱了这一理念。它确实改变了他们在世界舞台上的行动方式,例如,当沙特阿拉伯被揭露在也门使用武器犯下战争罪行并压迫本国妇女时,瑞典停止向沙特阿拉伯出售武器。然而,当贾斯廷·特鲁多采纳这个短语时,他实际上增加了对沙特阿拉伯的武器销售,以至于沙特阿拉伯现在成为加拿大武器的第二大买家,仅次于美国。

View/Hide Original English

The term feminist foreign policy was first coined by Sweden in 2014, the year before Trudeau was elected and they embraced it with both hands. It made a real difference to how they acted on the world stage, including, for example, discontinuing the sale of arms to Saudi Arabia when it was revealed that Saudi Arabia was using those arms to commit war crimes in Yemen and to oppress women in their own society. When Justin Trudeau took hold of that phrase, he actually increased the sale of weapons to Saudi Arabia to the point where Saudi Arabia is now the second largest purchaser of Canadian weapons after the United States.

当瑞典在2022年放弃其女权主义外交政策时,瑞典首相没有发表此言论,但其政党——温和党成员却这样做了。他们批评贾斯廷·特鲁多贬低了这个词的意义,使其沦为一场与现实世界外交政策无关的品牌宣传活动。

View/Hide Original English

When Sweden jettisoned its feminist for foreign policy in 2022, the prime minister did not say this, but members of his party, the moderate party did. They raised Justin Trudeau in saying that he had degraded the term, that it had become little more than a branding exercise with no connection to real world foreign policy.

对于卡尼,我认为无论是对他还是对任何其他政治人物,我们都不应过分看重他们的言辞,而应看重他们的行动。无论是特鲁多还是卡尼,问题不在于他们如何描述自己的外交政策,而在于他们实际做了什么,这仍有待观察。

View/Hide Original English

For Connie, I don't think for him or for any other political actor, we should put great weight on his words. We should put weight on his deeds. both for Trudeau and Carney. The question isn't how they describe their foreign policy, it's what they actually do, and that remains to be seen.

主持人: 好的。阿拉伯联合酋长国因其在苏丹持续内战中的作用而受到严厉批评,那里有数千人被杀害。加拿大刚刚签署了一项数十亿美元的协议。你对此有何看法?

View/Hide Original English

>> All right. Well, the United Arab Emirates has been heavily criticized for its role in the ongoing civil war in Sudan, uh, where thousands have been killed. Canada just signed a billion dollar deal. Uh, what are your thoughts on that?

香农·戈姆利: 我们应该只在能够限制独裁和专制国家对我们影响的范围内,与它们开展业务。而这很难做到。以德国为例,德国曾认为可以与俄罗斯做生意,并说:“好吧,俄罗斯不是一个自由主义的童子军,但它是一个可靠的商业伙伴。”结果,俄罗斯入侵乌克兰,德国在反击时处于非常不利的地位,因为它与俄罗斯建立了依赖关系。所以我们必须问自己,我们能否在不依赖这些国家的情况下与它们做生意,以确保我们的经济生存和政治生存不会受到威胁?

View/Hide Original English

>> We should be doing business with dictatorships and author authoritarian states only to the extent to which we can limit their influence on us. And that is a difficult trick to pull off. So take Germany for example. Germany thought that it could do business with Russia and said, "Okay, sure, Russia is not a liberal boy scout, but it's a reliable business partner." Lo and behold, Russia invades Ukraine and Germany is not in a very good position to fight back because it's nursed a dependent relationship with Russia. And so we have to ask ourselves, can we do business with countries without becoming dependent on states that in a way that our economic survival and our political survival isn't going to be at stake?

主持人: 让我们以阿联酋为例。加拿大是否应该与非民主国家搞好关系?

View/Hide Original English

>> Let's use the UAE as an example. Should Canada be cozying up with uh non-democracies?

阿科斯·马哈拉杰: 严峻的现实是,我们别无选择。我们是一个出口型经济体。世界上大约有200个国家,其中可能只有35个是完全民主国家。其余的都是有缺陷的民主国家或彻头彻尾的独裁国家。但是,我们向一个国家出售商品和服务,并不意味着我们应该出卖我们的价值观。

View/Hide Original English

>> The hard reality is that we have little choice. We are an export-based economy. There are about 200 countries in the world, perhaps as few as 35 of them are full democracies. The rest are some combination of flawed democracies or outright dictatorships. But the fact that we are selling goods and services to a country doesn't mean that we should be selling out our values.

就阿联酋而言,他们参与苏丹冲突在加拿大可能不太为人所知,但就背景而言,那场冲突已导致15万至40万人死亡。有2500万人受到饥荒影响,其中约400万是儿童。它注定将成为21世纪最骇人听闻的冲突。阿联酋在这场种族灭绝(genocide: 蓄意对某一民族、人种、种族或宗教团体进行全部或部分的毁灭)中扮演了重要角色。作为加拿大人,我们必须非常谨慎。我不太担心马克·卡尼想与他们签订商业协议,但我更担心的是,他在访问阿联酋时,对阿联酋参与这场种族灭绝一言不发。在与独裁国家打交道时,我们不必忍气吞声,事实上,只有发声才能保住我们的经济和我们的灵魂。

View/Hide Original English

With the UA, the UAE, their involvement in Sudan is perhaps not that well known in Canada, but to put into context, that conflict has killed between 150,000 to 400,000 people. There are 25 million people being affected by famine. About 4 million of them are children. It is set to turn into far and away the most grotesque conflict of the 21st century. The UAE has its fingerprints all over that genocide. As Canadians, we have to exercise great caution. And I'm less concerned about the fact that Mark Carney wants to sign business deals with them than I am by the fact that he said nothing about the UAE's involvement in the genocide when he visited them. We don't have to bite our tongues when dealing with dictatorships and indeed speaking out is the only way that we can keep our economy and keep our souls.

主持人: 你对此有何看法?

View/Hide Original English

>> Get your thoughts on that. Yeah,

香农·戈姆利: 也许我们别无选择,只能与独裁国家做一些生意。我同意这一点,我认为这毫无疑问。但我们确实要问,我们与它们做的是什么样的生意。例如,我们要向沙特阿拉伯出售武器吗?或者,我们要把我们重要基础设施的一部分交给它们吗?我们允许它们投资交通运输吗?你知道,与它们做生意在人工智能方面有什么风险?这些都是我们必须问的问题。

View/Hide Original English

>> it may be that we have little choice but to do some business with dictatorships. I agree with that. I don't think there's any question of that. But we do have to ask what kind of business we're doing with them. So, are we going to be selling weapons to Saudi Arabia, for instance? Um, or are we going to be giving over parts of our vital infrastructure? Are we allowing them to vest invest in transportation? You know, what what are the risks of doing business with them in terms of AI? Those are questions that we have to ask as well.

阿科斯·马哈拉杰: 我认为这在阿联酋问题上尤其令人困扰,因为卡尼想要的不是一个出口商品和服务的市场。阿联酋是一个相当小的国家。他想要的是进入他们大约2万亿美元的主权财富基金(sovereign wealth fund: 由国家控制的投资基金,通常投资于全球金融市场)。但阿联酋明确表示,当他们从财富基金中投资时,他们不仅期望经济回报,还期望政治回报。

View/Hide Original English

>> And I think it's particularly vexed with the UAE in that what Carney wants isn't a market to export goods and services. It's quite a small country. He wants access to their sovereign wealth fund, which is about $2 trillion. But the UAE has been explicit in saying that when they invest from their wealth fund, they don't just expect an economic return on investment. They expect a political return on investment.

值得注意的是,例如,当美国国务卿提出阿联酋在苏丹种族灭绝中的同谋问题时,他没有提及他们的名字。他谈论了他们所做的事情,但没有提及这个国家的名字。他们已经让美国国务卿对阿联酋产生了恐惧。

View/Hide Original English

And it's telling that, for example, that when the United States's Secretary of State raised the question of the UAE's complicity in the genocide in Sudan, he didn't mention their name. He talked about what they did, but would not mention the country's name. They have bought fear of the UAE from the Secretary of State for the United States.

主持人: 作为全球范围内的中等强国,一些评论家认为,在谈论加拿大外交政策时,美德信号(virtue signaling: 指通过公开表达某种道德或政治观点来展示自己的良好品格或道德优越感)是一种非理性的策略。你对此有何看法?

View/Hide Original English

>> As Canada being a on the global scale a middle power, some critics have said that uh virtue signaling is not is an irrational strategy when we talk about uh foreign policy for Canada. What do you think about that?

阿科斯·马哈拉杰: 如果美德信号只是言语而没有行动,那它就是美德信号。我会说这总是损害一个国家的声誉和地位。但有时这个词也被用来表示我们根本不应该发声。我绝对不同意这一点。那些经常说加拿大不应该对阿联酋或沙特阿拉伯等国家的侵犯行为发声的人,通常会使用两个论点。第一个是我们太小太弱,无法产生影响。第二个是这样做可能会损害我们的经济利益。但这两个论点是相互排斥的。

View/Hide Original English

>> Virtue signaling is virtue signaling if it's words without being connected to deeds. And I would say that that it's that is that always damages a country's reputation and its standing. But sometimes that term is also used to say that we should not speak out at all. And I I absolutely disagree with that. The people who often say that Canada should not speak out on the abuses by countries such as the UAE or Saudi Arabia usually use two arguments. The first is that we are too small and too weak to make a difference. And the second is that by doing so we might damage our economic interests. But those two arguments are mutually exclusive.

例如,如果我们所说的话无关紧要,那么它就不会损害我们的经济利益。如果它可能损害我们的经济利益,那么这表明我们所说的话确实很重要。我认为我们确实必须发声,这不仅仅是因为我们可以在国际舞台上发挥作用,更是因为它对我们加拿大人自身很重要。我们的国家不是由共同的种族、民族、宗教或语言定义的。它是由一套社会规范和政治价值观定义的。当我们的政府在国际舞台上采取立场时,他们不仅仅是在国际舞台上投射我们的身份。他们也在向我们加拿大人展示我们是谁。这塑造了我们的社会规范,并影响了我们作为一个民族的社会契约。我不希望我们的政府在国际舞台上采取对他人苦难漠不关心的立场,或者让我们相信作为加拿大人我们应该对他人苦难漠不关心。因为如果我们不关心国外的其他人,我们可能也不会关心加拿大的其他人,如果我们加拿大人彼此不关心,那么加拿大就不复存在了。

View/Hide Original English

If, for example, what we say doesn't matter, then it wouldn't harm our economic interests. And if it might harm our economic interest, then it shows that what we say matters. I would argue that we do have to speak out and not just because we can make a difference in the international stage because it makes a difference to us as Canadians. Our country isn't defined by a common race or ethnicity or religion or language. It's defined by a set of social norms and political values. And when our government takes positions on the international stage, they're not just projecting our identity into the international arena. They're also holding up a mirror to ourselves as Canadians about who we are. It's one that shapes our social norms and has an influence on our social contract as a people. I don't want our government taking positions on the international stage that is either indifferent to the suffering of others or convinces us that as Canadians we ought to be indifferent to the suffering of others. Because if we don't give a damn about other human beings abroad, we probably aren't going to give a damn about other human beings in Canada and if we don't care about one another as Canadians, then we have no Canada.

主持人: 香农,这里显然需要一个微妙的平衡。加拿大有没有办法在优先考虑经济利益的同时,维护国际人权?

View/Hide Original English

>> Shannon, there's a fine balance that clearly needs to happen here. Is there a way for Canada to prioritize th those economic concerns while maintaining the international human rights?

香农·戈姆利: 我不喜欢将这两个关注点相互排斥的观点。我认为我们的加拿大利益,遵循和保护加拿大利益,往往与我们的价值观是一致的。因为如果我们尽可能多地与志同道合的民主国家做生意,那么我们就会保护我们的长期利益。因为现在的专制国家,即使它们彼此竞争,也越来越多地相互协作和合作,因为它们知道,当民主兴起时,它们自己的人民可能会审视自己,并说也许我们也想获得自由。所以,依赖那些不希望我们政治安全、没有相同政治利益的人,或者与他们建立更紧密的贸易关系,不符合我们的长期经济利益。

View/Hide Original English

>> Well, I I don't like the idea of making those two concerns mutually exclusive. I I think that our Canadian interests, following Canadian interests, protecting Canadian interests, I think that is more often than not aligned with our values because if we're if we can as much as possible do business with other like-minded democracies, then we're going to be protecting our long-term interests because authoritarian states right now are even when they're in competition with each other, they're more and more collaborating and working in concert with each other because they know that there is a risk when democracy is ascendant for their own people to look at themselves and say maybe we want to be free too. And so it's not in our long-term economic interests to be dependent on people or to have closer trade ties to people that don't want us to be politically safe that don't that don't have the same political interests.

主持人: 阿科斯,当我们试图平衡这两者时,或者正如香农所说,也许我们不应该将其视为两个相互排斥的事物时,情况会是怎样?

View/Hide Original English

Akash, what does that look like though when we're trying to balance those two or or as Shen said, maybe we don't look at it as two exclusive things?

阿科斯·马哈拉杰: 我认为我们应该优先尝试与那些与我们拥有共同价值观和法治理念的国家达成商业安排。这不仅是良好的道德,也是良好的商业实践。一个蔑视本国人民基本人权的国家,也可能蔑视合同法、知识产权和商业纠纷的公平解决等问题。

View/Hide Original English

>> I think that we should be preferentially trying to come to come to business arrangements with countries who share our values and our concept of the rule of law. And that's not just good ethics. It's also good business. The kind of country that is contemptuous of its own population's basic human rights is also likely to be contemptuous of questions like contract law, intellectual property, and a fair disposition of of commercial disputes.

但即使我们努力与民主伙伴建立更深入、更广泛的关系,我们总是会与专制国家保持某种关系。这是不可避免的。这些关系必须尽可能地浅薄。它们必须通过尽可能强制执行法治的协议来加以限制,而且它们不能与我们努力建立一个基于法治的国际体系的长期目标分开。我同意香农的观点,即专制国家在政治上希望看到民主国家失败。

View/Hide Original English

But even as we try to cultivate deeper and and broader relationships with fellow democracies, we're always going to have some kind of relationships with authoritarian states. That is inevitable. Those relationships have to be made as shallow as possible. They have to be hedged in by agreements that to the greatest extent possible enforces the rule of law and they cannot be separated from our effort to create an international system that is based on the rule of law in the long I I agree with Shannon that authoritarian states have a political interest in seeing democracies fail

因为如果民主国家繁荣发展,它们就能对本国人民说,我们也想要民主。如果它们能够向本国人民证明民主无法提供所需,那么它们的人民就更有可能接受压迫。从长远来看,认识到我们无法在一个被囚禁的世界中繁荣发展,符合我们自身的利益。

View/Hide Original English

>> because if democracies prosper they're able to say to their population will say we want a democracy as well. If they're able to make the argument to their populations, democracies can't deliver the goods, then their populations are more likely to accept oppression. It's in our own interest to recognize that in the long term, we can't prosper in a world that is jailed.

加拿大外交政策的多元化:摆脱对美国的依赖

主持人: 多元化、多元化、多元化。这似乎是我们在谈论外交政策时经常使用的词汇。你提到了美国。我很好奇,加拿大现在是否正在努力在没有美国的情况下实现外交政策的多元化?

View/Hide Original English

>> Diversify, diversify, diversify. That's kind of been the words that have been used when we talk about foreign policy. You mentioned the US. I'm curious, is Canada struggling to diversify its foreign policy right now without the US?

香农·戈姆利: 嗯,对我们来说,在历史、经济、文化上实现多元化是一个非常艰巨的任务。我们与美国有着如此根深蒂固的联系,以至于尽管我们努力实现多元化至关重要,但这并不意味着它很容易,而且我们只能在一定程度上做到。你知道,美国是一个庞然大物。而且,美国和加拿大之间的贸易流动比与其他国家之间容易得多。但是我们能做的,例如,是开始与欧洲盟友在安全方面进行更多合作,我们已经在这方面取得了一些进展。我认为这应该是我们更多关注的领域。所以,我们尽可能多地引入更多行动者,希望是志同道合的民主国家,进入我们的安全安排和协议,并建立更多的贸易关系,但要明白这不是一件容易扭转的事情。

View/Hide Original English

Oh well, it is a very tall order for us to diversify historically, economically, culturally. We have such deeply embedded ties with the US that even though it is um critical that we try to diversify, that doesn't mean that it's easy um and it it we're only going to be able to do it to a certain extent. You know, the the US is a behemoth. Um, and it's so much easier for trade flows to go between the US and Canada than it is in other countries. But what what we can do is for instance start cooperating more with European allies for instance on the security front and we've started to make a few strides in that area already. Um, and I think that's where more of our focus can be. Um, so as much as we can, you know, bring in more actors hopefully that are like-minded democracies um into both of our our, you know, security arrangements and agreements as well as um forging more trade ties, but understand that that's not something that's that's easily turned around.

主持人: 天哪,感觉我们正在进行的这些对话,对加拿大来说,在寻求合作伙伴多元化方面,就像是进入了“陌生领域”,并非双关语。

View/Hide Original English

>> Oh gosh. is it it feels like as we're having these conversations, it feels like it's uh no pun intended, but foreign territory for for Canada to start looking at diversifying its partners.

阿科斯·马哈拉杰: 你知道,我想起了那句老话:“什么时候是种树的最佳时机?20年前。什么时候是种树的次佳时机?现在。”我们正处于这种境地。我们本应在很久以前就实现经济和政治的多元化。我们做得不够好,很大程度上是因为美国被视为一个可靠的伙伴。他们如此庞大,如此近,如此富有。但他们现在不再是我们可靠的伙伴了。

View/Hide Original English

>> You know, I'm reminded of the old open expression, when is the best time to plant a tree? 20 years ago. When is the second best time to plant a tree? Right now, [clears throat] and we are in that position. We should have been diversifying our economy and our politics a long time ago. We did an inadequate job largely because the United States was viewed as a reliable partner. They're so large. They're so close. They're so wealthy. They are now no longer a reliable partner for for us.

但我认为在混乱中存在机遇。那就是特朗普政府(Trump administration: 指唐纳德·特朗普担任美国总统期间的政府)的动荡向我们,乃至全世界揭示了我们所处的糟糕境地,因为我们允许自己依赖一个国家,并希望它们永远能反映我们的价值观。政治多元化不仅仅意味着更强的外交和经济关系。它还意味着承担起安全和国防等责任,而不是指望美国会来拯救我们,因为美国不会来拯救我们。

View/Hide Original English

But I think that there's there's an opportunity amidst the chaos. And that is that the [clears throat] convulsions of the Trump administration have revealed to us and indeed to the world the terrible position that we have placed ourselves in by allowing ourselves to become dependent on one country in the hopes that they would always reflect our values. Diversifying our politics doesn't just mean stronger diplomatic relationships and economic relationships. It also means stepping up to take responsibility for things like security and defense and not expecting that the United States will come to our rescue because the United States is not coming to our rescue.

主持人: 阿科斯、香农,我们只能到此为止了。非常感谢你们的真知灼见。非常感谢。

View/Hide Original English

>> Akos Shannon, we're going to have to leave it there. Thank you so much for your insights. Really appreciate it.

阿科斯·马哈拉杰: 谢谢。

View/Hide Original English

>> Thank you.

加拿大与印度:贸易关系与地缘政治挑战

2023年9月,时任总理贾斯廷·特鲁多在下议院(House of Commons: 加拿大联邦议会的下议院)发表了一份声明,在全球引起了轩然大波。

View/Hide Original English

In September 2023, then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau rose in the House of Commons and delivered a statement that sent shock waves around the world.

贾斯廷·特鲁多: “在过去的几周里,加拿大安全机构一直在积极追查关于印度政府特工与一名加拿大公民被杀之间潜在联系的可靠指控。受害者哈迪普·辛格·尼贾尔是一名参与卡利斯坦运动(Khalistan movement: 旨在印度旁遮普邦建立一个独立锡克教国家的政治运动)的锡克分离主义者。”

View/Hide Original English

>> Over the past number of weeks, Canadian security agencies have been actively pursuing credible allegations of a potential link between agents of the government of India and the killing of a Canadian citizen. The victim Hardep Singh Nar was a seek separatist involved with a Kalistan movement.

特鲁多的声明引发了一场外交风暴,而印度被指控在此进行选举干预的说法,使情况进一步复杂化。两国实际上陷入了疏远。在最近的G20峰会上,两国总理笑容满面,同意恢复贸易谈判。为了了解这些贸易谈判对加拿大意味着什么,以及我们与印度的历史是否会成为障碍,我采访了麦吉尔大学(McGill University: 位于加拿大蒙特利尔的著名研究型大学)实践教授兼国际治理创新中心(Center for International Governance Innovation: 位于加拿大滑铁卢的独立智库,专注于全球治理研究)杰出研究员罗欣顿·马多拉。

View/Hide Original English

Trudeau's announcement sparked a diplomatic explosion, one that was further complicated by allegations that India had engaged in election interference here. The two countries became effectively estranged. At the recent G20, the prime ministers were all smiles as they agreed to resume trade talks. To get a sense of what these trade talks could mean for Canada and whether our history with India could get in the way, I spoke with Rohinton Madora, a professor of practice at McGill University and a distinguished fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation.

主持人: 罗欣顿,欢迎来到节目。你好吗?

View/Hide Original English

>> Rohinton, welcome to the program. How are you doing?

罗欣顿·马多拉: 谢谢邀请。我很好。

View/Hide Original English

>> Thank you for having me. I'm doing well.

主持人: 好的,我们来谈谈最近的谈判。加拿大和印度在最近于南非举行的G20峰会上重启了贸易谈判。这项贸易协议将包括什么?

View/Hide Original English

>> All right, let's talk with the most recent talks. Canada and India restarted trade talks at the recent G20 in South Africa. What would this trade deal include?

罗欣顿·马多拉: 所以,我们不知道具体内容。但我们确实知道的一件事是,这些谈判有15年的徒劳历史。它们最初是关于全面经济伙伴关系(comprehensive economic partnership: 一种超越传统贸易协定,涵盖投资、技术、人员流动等多个领域的经济合作协议)的谈判,换句话说,超越贸易范畴。后来它们被降级为贸易谈判,而在G20峰会上,它们又被升级为全面经济伙伴关系,这告诉我它将涉及贸易,但不仅仅是贸易。具体多多少,我们仍然不知道,但通常全面的经济伙伴关系会包括投资、技术、可能的人员流动、教育交流等方面的工作。这都取决于我们如何看待“全面”这个词。

View/Hide Original English

>> So, we don't know. But the one thing we do know is that these talks have a 15-year history of futility. They began as talks for a comprehensive economic partnership. In other words, going beyond trade. they were sort of downgraded to trade and at the G20 summit they've been upgraded again to comprehensive economic partnership which tells me that it will be about trade but more than trade. How much more we still don't know but typically a comprehensive economic partnership would include um work on investment technology perhaps people flows education exchanges. Uh it all depends on how we view the word comprehensive.

主持人: 这是一个转折点吗?你谈到了那15年的历史。对于这两个国家来说,在贸易方面,这是一个转折点吗?

View/Hide Original English

>> Is this a turning point? You talk about that 15 year history. Is this a turning point for these two countries when it comes to trade?

罗欣顿·马多拉: 已经有很多“转折点”并没有真正转折。所以,我不想坐在这里告诉你这是一个转折点,但有几件事确实发生了变化。大概,两国在过去的15年中都吸取了经验教训,知道了什么有效,什么无效。其次,当然,最重要的一点是,地缘政治已经改变了。

View/Hide Original English

>> There have been many turning points that haven't turned. So, I'm not willing to sit down here with you and say this is the turning point, but a few things have changed. Presumably, both countries have learned lessons over the last 15 years of what worked and what didn't. Second, and of course, the big one, the geopolitics have changed

两国都意识到以美国为中心的世界秩序已不再是昔日模样。这可能是这些谈判所需的推动力,促使两国认真对待它们。但这里有一个“但是”,简。这个“但是”是,两国都不是对方重要的贸易伙伴。

View/Hide Original English

>> and both countries realize that the US centered world order is not quite what it used to be. That might be the imper imperative that these talks need for the two countries to take them seriously. But there's a butt here, Jan. And the butt is that neither country is an important trading partner of the other.

主持人: 有趣。

View/Hide Original English

>> Interesting.

罗欣顿·马多拉: 所以,相互让步的动力很低,因为那样你就必须让它们成为更重要的贸易伙伴。因此,谈判中总是会有谨慎,上行空间也有限。有些人可能会好奇你为什么这么说,因为印度是第四大经济体。那么,为什么它们彼此不一定重要会令人惊讶呢?

View/Hide Original English

>> And so the incentive to make concessions to each other is low because then you have to make them much more important trade partners. And so there's always going to be a caution in the negotiations and a limit to the upside. Some people might be uh curious to hear you say that because India fourth largest economy. So why might it be surprising that they don't necessarily matter to each other?

这是一段表现不佳的贸易关系。我的同事丹·苏里亚克估计,如果两国真正根据其经济基本面进行贸易,贸易额可能会高出一倍半到两倍。事实并非如此,这反映了经济关系持续受到冲击,以及尽管有言辞,但两国都没有真正认真对待对方。上行空间是存在的。不过,我怀疑在其他领域有更大的上行空间。

View/Hide Original English

>> It has been an underperforming trade relationship. Uh my colleague Dan Surriak uh has estimated that if the two countries actually traded based on their economic fundamentals, trade might be one and a half to two times as high. The fact that it isn't is a reflection of the constant um uh buffeting of the economic relationship of the fact that neither country has taken the other frankly seriously despite the rhetoric. Um the upside is there. I suspect there's more upside in other areas though.

主持人: 好的。那我们来谈谈这个上行空间。你认为这里的主要合作机会在哪里?

View/Hide Original English

>> All right. Well, let's talk about that upside. Where do you see the main opportunities here for collaboration?

罗欣顿·马多拉: 我会说主要机会在投资方面。好的。印度需要大量的绿色基础设施和其他类型的基础设施,这既需要资金也需要技术,而加拿大的养老基金尤其以其“聪明耐心”的资金而闻名,这正是印度所需要的。我认为这已经是一个增长领域,而且在某种程度上,它几乎不受我们所看到的一些政治趋势的影响。

View/Hide Original English

>> I'd say the main opportunities would be on the investment side. Okay. Uh there is a lot of um green infrastructure and other kinds of infrastructure that India needs which requires both capital as well as uh technology and Canadian pension fund money in particular is known to be smart patient money exactly the kind that India needs. I think that has been a growth area and almost impervious by the way to some of these political trends we've seen.

所以我怀疑这是主要的。当然,还有像学生这样的领域,我们知道这受我们的移民政策影响,但我想说一方面是投资,而在贸易内部,现有贸易模式我认为不会深化,但可能会出现新的领域。我们不知道,这取决于谈判的范围。就新领域而言,人工智能作为双边合作的潜在来源,引起了一些关注。你有什么看法?

View/Hide Original English

>> And so that I suspect is the main one. Then of course there's areas like students which we know uh are subject to our immigration policies as well but I'd say investment on the one hand and within trade there's existing trade patterns which I don't think will deepen but there might be new areas that emerge. We don't know. It depends on the scope of the talks. Well, in terms of new areas, there's been u some buzz uh around artificial intelligence uh as a potential source for bilateral cooperation. Your thoughts?

罗欣顿·马多拉: 我对此感到困惑。为什么?

View/Hide Original English

>> Uh I'm puzzled by that one. Why actually

我感到困惑的原因是,你知道,我有一种感觉,人们对人工智能的兴奋程度往往与对现实的理解程度成反比。好的。所以要能够交易某种东西或将其视为一种经济资产,你必须拥有它。而要拥有它,我们通常衡量的方式是专利。

View/Hide Original English

>> I'm puzzled by it for the reason that you know I I have a sense that the excitement over AI is often inversely proportional to understanding the reality. Okay. So to be able to trade something or to consider an economic asset, you have to own it. Um and to own it, the typical way that we measure that is patents.

我的同事吉姆·辛顿对此进行了极其仔细的统计。他们的数据表明,毫不奇怪,人工智能领域由美国和中国主导,我指的是80%到90%的人工智能专利由两国控制。

View/Hide Original English

>> My colleague Jim Hinton has done the numbers on this extremely carefully. And what they suggest at no surprises, but the AI game is dominated and by dominated I mean 80 to 90% of the patents in AI are controlled by US and China.

大约有六个国家,其中加拿大是其中之一,还有英国、韩国、日本、德国,它们争夺剩下的10%。而加拿大实际上排在这个名单的末尾。

View/Hide Original English

There's about six countries of which Canada is one. So those UK, South Korea, Japan, uh Germany who then vy for that remaining 10% and Canada's actually at the bottom of that list.

我们向其他国家流失的专利比我们获得的还多,因为我们没有大型跨国公司来将其商业化。印度甚至不是这个领域的参与者。它不在我刚才提到的名单中,而且它拥有令人印象深刻的数字堆栈(digital stack: 指一个国家或经济体用于提供数字服务和基础设施的技术平台和系统),你可能知道。包括数字身份、金融普惠、健康、司法,但它主要基于开源。

View/Hide Original English

>> We lose more patents than we make to other countries because we don't have the large multinationals that can valorize them. India isn't even a player in that game. It is not in the list I just mentioned and it has a very impressive digital stack as you might know. Um digital ID, financial inclusion, health, justice, but it's largely open-source-based.

所以,你有一个不将人工智能视为纯粹商业资产的国家,而且它在商业化方面是落后者。我看不出我们如何能在甚至不属于任何一方资产的基础上建立经济关系。可能会有学术交流。作为一名学者,我从不反对这些,

View/Hide Original English

So you've got a country that does not see AI as a purely commercial asset and one that's a lagard in commercializing. And I don't see how we're going to build an economic relationship on something that isn't even uh an asset for either. There might be academic exchanges. And as an academic, I'm never against those,

但我认为学术交流不需要经济协议。

View/Hide Original English

>> but I don't think you need an economic agreement for academics to exchange.

主持人: 明白了。好的。你已经提到了很多国家。除了这些双边问题之外,两国在多边或三边合作方面是否有更大的机会,以应对我们目前看到的全球秩序转变?

View/Hide Original English

>> Noted. All right. You mentioned a number of countries out uh already. Outside of these bilateral issues, might there be a greater opportunity for both countries to work on perhaps a multilateral trilateral um in terms of the what we're seeing right now in terms of a shift in global order?

罗欣顿·马多拉: 我认为这是另一个增长领域。它超越了双边范畴。我们中的一些人多年来一直认为,G20是加拿大实现外交政策思维和行动多元化的论坛。

View/Hide Original English

>> I believe that's the other growth area. It is outside bilateral. Some of us have been saying for years that the G20 is the forum that allows Canada to diversify its foreign policy thinking and actions.

就像与中国一样,但那是另一个故事。加拿大和印度都对一个稳定而不同的全球秩序感兴趣。我们现在有机会扮演这个角色,一切似乎都悬而未决。债务、金融、发展、贸易、技术。现在是加拿大和印度与其他国家联手的好时机。他们已经与澳大利亚。

View/Hide Original English

um as with China, but that's a separate story. Canada and India have an interest in a stable and different global order. We now have a chance to play that role and everything seems to be up for grabs. Um debt, finance, development, trade, technology. This is a good time for Canada and India to join forces with other countries. They have already Australia

我们最近看到了一个例子,我们可以在彼此之间设计实验,然后将其多边化,或者在多边层面推广大思想。

View/Hide Original English

>> and Australia. We've we've seen an example of that just recently in which we design experiments among ourselves perhaps that can then be multilateralized or promote big ideas at the multilateral level.

主持人: 印度和加拿大两国都被指控试图损害对方的国家安全。印度指责加拿大纵容巴勒斯坦运动,加拿大则指责印度进行外国干预。鉴于所有这些历史以及你所谈论的历史,这会阻碍贸易关系吗?

View/Hide Original English

>> Both countries have been accused India and Canada of each other of trying to undermine uh their national security. India has accused Canada of enabling the Palestine movement here. Canada has accused India of foreign interference. With all of that history and the history that you've talked about, will this impede trade relations?

罗欣顿·马多拉: 从历史上看,它确实阻碍过。我永远不会排除事件会“碍事”的可能性。我并不是要轻视你提出的这些问题的重要性,而是说它们会阻碍经济关系。

View/Hide Original English

>> Historically, it has. And I would never rule out the fact that events will will get in the way, so to speak. I I don't mean to dismiss the importance of these issues you've raised, but that they would sort of get in the way of the economic relationship. Um

有两个领域我预计会遇到一些障碍。当然是尼贾尔谋杀案嫌疑人的审判以及正在进行的选举干预工作。如此多的高层加拿大-印度接触的发生,这表明这些问题可能已经出现,并且存在某种共识。

View/Hide Original English

there's two areas where I'd be looking out for some for a bump. Uh certainly the the trial of the suspects in the nijar murder and the ongoing election interference work. The fact that so many high level Canada India contacts have happened suggests to me that perhaps these issues have come up and there's some kind of onant

那就是,你知道,让我们现在进行“分而治之”,但仅仅因为我们认为它会被分而治之,并不意味着它就会如此。很大程度上取决于什么样的可靠证据会公之于众,以及两国公众对此的反应。所以,我不会排除这种可能性,因为历史表明,在全面的关系中,这些事情似乎总是很重要。

View/Hide Original English

>> that you know let's now compartmentalize but just because we think it will be compartmentalized doesn't mean it will a lot depends on what kinds of credible evidence become public and how publics in each country react to it. So, I'm not going to rule it out because the history suggests that these are things that always seem to matter in a comprehensive relationship.

主持人: 这些重新启动的贸易谈判在多大程度上反映了两国之间的共同价值观,而不是地缘政治的必然性,即美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的政策?

View/Hide Original English

>> To what extent are these renewed trade talks a reflection of shared values between two countries versus a sort of shaped by geopolitical necessity, i.e., US President Donald Trump's policies?

罗欣顿·马多拉: 两者兼而有之。我认为毫无疑问,两国都意识到美国不再是以前的伙伴和参与者。如果没有这种地缘政治发展,我认为我们两国不会走到今天。话虽如此,加拿大外交政策中一直存在一种寻求志同道合国家的暗流,而且有着悠久而实际上令人愉快的历史,比如老特鲁多被不结盟运动所吸引,以及他对尼赫鲁-甘地家族的钦佩。

View/Hide Original English

>> A bit of both. I I think there's no question that um both countries realize that the US is not the partner and player it used to be. I don't think we'd be these two our two countries would be where they are were it not for that geopolitical development. this said there has always been an undercurrent in Canadian foreign policy to seek out like-minded and there's a long and actually happy history of you know Trudeau's senior being enamored by the non-align movement and and his uh admiration of the NU Gandhi family there have been moments Paul Martin

保罗·马丁曾倡导将G7扩大到包括印度在G20中,因为他对印度的高度重视,反之亦然,前财政部长曼莫汉·辛格总理也对加拿大高度评价。所以,这种温暖是存在的,这种温暖来自共同的价值观,但共同的价值观必须得到行动的支持,而这正是两国未能做到的地方。

View/Hide Original English

championing the expansion of the G7 to include India in the G20 because of his high regard and vice versa for Prime Minister Man Mahorse Man Singh a former finance minister himself. So there is that warmth and that warmth comes from shared values but shared values have to be backed up by action and that's where the two countries haven't been able to get it together.

主持人: 好的。话虽如此,如果你能给外交部长一条建议,那会是什么?

View/Hide Original English

>> All right. With that being said, if you had one piece of advice uh for the foreign minister, what would that be?

罗欣顿·马多拉: 我会说,不要忘记长远眼光。这与说“采取长远眼光,所以短期内什么都不做”不同。但不要忘记长远眼光,不要让事件总是阻碍长远眼光。当然,它们必须得到处理。但加拿大和印度之间存在着尚未充分利用的伙伴关系。开始利用它吧。

View/Hide Original English

>> I'd say don't forget the long view. That's not the same as saying take the long view so you don't do anything in the short run. But don't forget the long view and don't let events always get in the way of the long view. Of course, they have to be dealt with. But Canada, India have a partnership that has not been fully exploited. Start exploiting it.

主持人: 好的,罗欣顿,我们就到此为止。非常感谢您的真知灼见。非常感谢。

View/Hide Original English

>> All right, Roenton, we are going to leave it there. Thank you so much for your insights. Really appreciate it.

罗欣顿·马多拉: 不客气。

View/Hide Original English

>> My pleasure.

明天是捐赠星期二(Giving Tuesday: 一个全球性的慈善日,旨在鼓励人们在感恩节后的星期二进行捐赠和志愿服务),一个全球性的慷慨之日。TVO(TVO: 加拿大安大略省的公共教育媒体组织)50多年来一直是值得信赖的教育和新闻来源,致力于打击虚假信息并促进媒体素养。明天捐款,金额将由威尔逊基金会(Wilson Foundation: 一个慈善基金会)匹配。请在明天午夜前访问tvo.org/givingTuesday了解更多信息。在此之前,明天见。

View/Hide Original English

Tomorrow is Giving Tuesday, global day of generosity. TBO has been a trusted source for education and journalism for more than 50 years, fighting misinformation and promoting media literacy. Donate tomorrow and the amount will be matched by the Wilson Foundation. Go to tvo.org/giving Tuesday before tomorrow at midnight to find out more. Until then, see you tomorrow.

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

关键字: economic foreign-policy-shift geopolitical human-right relations