硅谷资本风向标:私募二级市场的大爆发与AI时代的流动性革命 All-In Podcast 2026-06-07

私募市场与资本主义平民化

Jason Calacanis: 每个人都想进入这些私募市场。现在加入我们讨论这一切的是 Kelly Rodriguez。他是 Forge 的 CEO。我们看到了一个私募市场开放的世界,任何美国和全球投资者都能参与其中。私募市场 AI 投资组合里有 19 家公司。这些公司的平均增长率达到了 300%。

Original English

Everybody wants access to these private markets. Joining [music] us right now to discuss all of this is Kelly Rodriguez. He's a Forge CEO. We see a world where the [music] private market opens up and is accessible to any US and global investor. There's 19 companies in the private market AI basket. These companies have grown on average 300%.

Jason Calacanis: 请大家和我们一起欢迎 Atrades 的管理合伙人兼首席投资官 Gavin Baker。从经验、事实和明确的证据来看,投资 AI 的回报率一直是正的。投资就是寻找真相的过程。我们还要欢迎 Brad Gerstner。很高兴你能回来。你有一个名为 Invest America(投资美国)的项目。

Original English

Please join us in welcoming Gavin Baker, managing partner and CIO of Atrades. The ROI on AI has empirically, factually, unambiguously been positive. Investing is the search for truth. We welcome in Brad Gersonner. It's good to be back with you. You have a program called Invest America.

Brad Gerstner: 我认为我们现在正处于一个历史性的时刻,可以让每个人都参与到资本主义的游戏中来。

Original English

I think we have a historic moment right now to get [music] everybody into the game of capitalism.

Jason Calacanis: 我们有没有几张 Brad 的幻灯片来作为开场?

Original English

Do we have a few slides from Brad to kick this off?

二级市场大爆发:准上市公司时代的到来

Brad Gerstner: 你们知道吗,让我们像过去一样开始。这个圆桌讨论,其实我刚才在后台。我说,“Gavin,你知道我们在讨论二级市场吗?”他反应是,“你什么意思?”我说,“好吧,那么我们来为大家定个基调。在座的各位都是资产配置者。大家都在寻找资金分配途径。所以这是过去十年间的二级市场表现。这是每年流入 VC(风险投资)的资金量,这是每年从 VC 流出的资金量。红线代表这两者的净效应。所以 Chamath,我们现在的状况就像连续五年,流入的资金远远超过流出的资金。但二级市场的交易量却达到了创纪录的水平。”

所以我把这些公司称为准上市公司(quasi public companies)。这些是处于后期阶段的公司。每天都在发生买卖交易。看看这个,Jason。相对于 2021 年的顶峰。在 2021 年底我们觉得那已经很疯狂了。但现在的二级市场交易量是那时的两倍。这是员工期权二次变现(employee secondary)的金额。这代表人们正在买入 Anduril、AnthropicSpaceX。在 2025 年,购买这些二级市场份额现在占据了所有初级风险投资活动的 31%。二级市场现在已经与 IPO 和并购并驾齐驱,成为这些公司退出的主要方式。所以我认为这是一个很好的背景设定,可以在今天早上开始讨论之前,让大家明白二级市场已经变得多么重要。最后一点是,过去几年二级市场一直是折价交易的。也就是说,如果我们想把一家公司的股票卖给外面的买家,为了获得流动性以便把 DPI(投入资本分红率)返还给我们的 LP,他们只愿意给我们打八折(80 cents on the dollar)。但今天它的价格是 106。也就是市场上出现了溢价。

Original English

You know, let's startic like old times. like old times. This uh this panel I I actually was backstage. I said, "Gavin, do you know we're talking about secondaries?" He's like, "What do you mean?" And I said, "Okay, so here, let's just set this up for everybody. The room's full of people who are allocators. People are looking for distributions. So this is um secondary markets over the course of the last decade. This is the amount of money going into VC each year, the amount of money coming out of VC each year. The red line represents the net effect of that. So Jamath, we're in like 5 years, right, where a lot more is going in than's coming out. But the secondary market is at record volume. So this is, you know, I call these companies quasi public companies. These are these later stage companies. There's buying and selling that's going on every day. Look at that, Jason. Relative to the 21 peak. We thought that was crazy at the end of 21. We're double that now in terms of secondary transactions. This is the amount of employee secondary. So this is people buying into Anderal, Anthropic, SpaceX now represents 31% of all primary venture activity is buying into these secondaries in 2025. Secondaries are now competing with IPOs and acquisitions as the principal way that these guys are exiting. So, I thought that was a decent setup to start the conversation this morning just to level set how important secondaries [clears throat] have become. And then the final one is secondaries over the last couple years were trading at a discount to market. So, if we wanted to sell shares in one of our companies, right, to buyers out there, they were willing to give us 80 cents on the dollar in order for us to get liquid so that we could send DPI back to our LPS. Today it's at 106. Uh uh so a premium in the market as a coupon.

Chamath Palihapitiya: 而且这还没有包括最近被揭露的一些像“狂野西部”一样混乱的 SPV(特殊目的实体)。

Original English

And this doesn't include some of the wild west of SPVS that have been unraveled recently.

Jason Calacanis: 有些人收取 10% 的认购费、双重附带权益(carry),还有很多灰市的场外交易。Gavin,这也对这些公司的员工产生了深远的影响,我想听听你的看法,因为你在 SpaceX 亲眼目睹了这一切,而且他们这里有一个非常有秩序的流程。我们为什么不从这里开始呢?Gavin,这对员工有什么影响?然后对市场有什么影响,这个市场到底有多规范?买家都是谁?这些买家是牌桌上的冤大头吗?他们是那些不断听到我们谈论 Anthropic、SpaceX 或 Anduril 的家族办公室和高净值人士,他们只是说“我必须拥有这个名字”,但他们并没有辨别力?所以 Gavin,也许你可以从你亲眼看到的这对 SpaceX 员工的影响等开始谈谈。

Original English

People charging 10% loadin fees, double carry and a lot of gray market offmarket stuff. This is also having a profound impact, Gavin, on employees at these companies that I want to hear about because you've seen it up close and personal with SpaceX and they have a very orderly process here. So, why don't we start there? What impact is this having on the employees, Gavin? And then on the market, how orderly is this? And and who are the buyers? Are the buyers the sucker at the table? are these family offices, high netw worth individuals who keep hearing us talk about Anthropic or SpaceX or Andril and they just say I have to own the name and they're not discerning. So Gavin, maybe you can start about the impact on the SpaceX employees you saw firsthand, etc.

私有化时长困境与信息茧房

Gavin Baker: 嗯,也许把范围扩大到 SpaceX 之外,我确实认为如果公司要保持更长时间的私有化状态,这(二级市场流动性)是绝对必要的。我认为有很多人的账面财富非常可观,但实际上却缺乏现金。如果你做出了巨大的牺牲,因为你为你真正相信的公司工作,而且你为这家公司做出了很多贡献。但如果你无法为你的家人买一套好房子,如果你连改善生活的好东西都买不起,那是很难熬的。

Original English

Well, maybe broadening it beyond SpaceX, I do just think if companies are going to be staying private longer, this is absolutely necessary. There I think there are a lot of people who are very um very wealthy on paper but actually cash poor and if you're making tremendous sacrifices uh because you know you work for a company that you really believe in and you're contributing a lot to that company. It's hard if you can't buy a nice house for your family. It's hard if you can't afford to do nice things,

Jason Calacanis: 尤其是在公司工作了第七年、第八年或第九年的时候,你告诉你的配偶,我们的账面价值有 1000 万、3000 万,但你们却连自己的房子都没有。

Original English

especially in year seven, eight or nine of working at the company and you tell your spouse we're worth 10 million on paper, 30 million on paper and you don't own your home.

Gavin Baker: 是的。或者是第 15 年。所以我认为这是必要且重要的。而且无论好坏,我认为很明显,公司保持私有化的时间将会越来越长。

Original English

Yeah. Or year 15. And so I think this is necessary and important and you know whether it is good or bad, I think it is very clear that companies um are going to stay private for longer.

Chamath Palihapitiya: 保持私有化更长时间的真正原因是什么?

Original English

What's the reason to stay private longer? Truly

Brad Gerstner: 我认为这其实并没有一个好理由。

Original English

I I I don't think there is actually a good reason to stay private longer

Chamath Palihapitiya: 确实。

Original English

here. Here

Brad Gerstner: 而且——

Original English

and

Chamath Palihapitiya: 我完全同意你的观点。

Original English

I completely agree with you too.

Gavin Baker: 是的。我也同意。

Original English

Yeah. And I

Jason Calacanis: 为什么会发生这种情况?这只是因为创始人不希望——我们就直说吧。创始人不想被放在显微镜下审视。他们想要建立公司,同时享受生活,这比在公开市场上被拿着放大镜看要轻松得多。

Original English

Why has it happened? This is founders don't want let's just call it what it is. Founders don't want to be under a microscope. They want to build and enjoy life and have it easier than being on the public market microscoped.

Gavin Baker: 是的。有一种普遍的看法是,作为一家私有公司的生活会更容易,你有更多的自由,你可以做长期思考。我不同意这种看法。我总是会想起马克·扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)的一段评论,大意是如果他当时是一家上市公司会怎样。回顾 Facebook 的历史,我不想把它称为一次濒死体验,但在很久以前,虽然现在很难相信,但在 2010 年或 2011、2012 年的时候,Facebook 并不相信原生应用(Apps),他们相信一种叫 HTML 6 的技术。

Original English

Yeah. I think there is a perception that life as a private company is easier and you have more freedom and you can think long term. I don't agree with this. I always think about um Mark Zuckerberg's commentary that had he been public. So just you know Facebook um I won't call it a near-death experience but long ago it's difficult to believe but I don't 10 112 um Facebook did not believe in apps they believed in something called HTML 6

Jason Calacanis: 是 HTML 5。

Original English

and HTML 5

Gavin Baker: HTML 5,是的。你正是那个亲历者。

Original English

HTML 5 HTML 5 Yes. You you you you were the actual

Chamath Palihapitiya: 那是一场灾难性的争论,主角就是我和 Brett Taylor。我跟 Brett 对立。我的立场是原生应用(Apps),我想去开发一款手机。而 Brett 的立场是 HTML 5。最终 Zuck(扎克伯格)选择了 Brett。然后接下来的三年,我们都在为推翻那个决定买单。

Original English

it was the cataclysmic debate and it was me and Brett Taylor. Me versus Brett. I was like apps I want to go build a phone. Brett was like HTML 5. Zuck picked Brett. Spent the next three years unwinding that decision.

Gavin Baker: 绝对是这样。当时马克·扎克伯格和大家基本的想法是,iPhone 问世了,最初并没有一个庞大的应用生态系统,所以有一种想法认为,嘿,根本不需要专门的应用。你只需要在手机上使用网页浏览器,而 HTML 5 是一种让网站看起来像移动端原生应用的方法。

Original English

Absolutely. And Mark Zuckerberg and basically the idea was you know the iPhone comes out and initially there was not a big app app ecosystem and there was a thought that hey there's no need for apps. you're just going to use the web browser on your phone and HTML 5 was a way of look of making websites look mobile native

Jason Calacanis: 动态化的。

Original English

dynamic.

Gavin Baker: 是的。这对很多非常聪明的人来说,包括 Google 和 Facebook,这似乎就是未来的方向。但它并不是未来。这是错误的。马克·扎克伯格在公开场合曾多次表示,他深深地相信,如果当时他是一家上市公司,当公司内部发生那种辩论时——

Original English

Yeah. And this seemed like kind of the future to a lot of very smart people including Google, Facebook. Um but it was not the future. Um it was wrong. And what Mark Darker has said, I think several times in public is he profoundly believes that had he been a public company um when you know there was this internal debate between the

Chamath Palihapitiya: 具体细节是这样的,我去找 Zuck 说,“我需要 10 亿美元来开发这款手机。我们在 2010 年的这个时刻,我们可以成为三足鼎立中的第三极。当时有 Android,有 iPhone,两者都还没真正起飞。”然后他说,“我们没有 10 亿美元。”我说,“但是公开市场会给我们 10 亿美元。”他说不行。但仅仅一年后,我们还是上市了。

Original English

and the detail was actually I went to Zuck and I said I need a billion dollars to build this phone and we are in this moment in 2010 where we can have the third leg of the stool. there's Android, there's iPhone, neither have really taken off yet. And and he's like, we don't have a billion. And I said, but the public markets will give us a billion. And he said, no, but then we went public a year later,

Jason Calacanis: 但那一年造成了天壤之别。

Original English

but that year made all the difference.

Gavin Baker: 造就了天壤之别。他说,如果我一直受到来自公开市场投资者的压力测试——你知道这里有一种动态。我今天早上刚和另一位 CEO 聊过。当你是私有公司的 CEO 时,在所有投资者眼里,你就是那朵最特别的娇花。你就好像是,你对你的董事会成员来说,特别是当你非常成功的时候,你可能和董事会成员的家人或父母一样重要,你的董事会成员会经常挂念你。但一旦你上市了,你只是成千上万家公司中的一家。这是一种完全不同的动态。但这带来的后果是,私募投资者往往是在向管理团队推销自己。从某种层面上讲,这可能意味着他们只会告诉管理团队想听的话,因为他们想要继续参与后续的融资轮次。而一旦公司上市,你就可以随意买卖。这意味着投资者会觉得自己能更自由地向公司管理团队提供反馈。扎克伯格说,“如果我上市了,如果我受到真正聪明的公开市场股权投资者的严格、细致的盘问,我想我就会……”

Original English

Made all the difference. And he said that had I had the constant pressure testing from public market investors, you there's a dynamic. I was I was talking to another CEO here this morning. When you're the CEO of a private company, you are the most special flower to all of your investors. [laughter] You're like, you are as important to your board members, particularly if you're really successful. You know, maybe as the board members families or parents, you know, the board members think about you a lot. Um, once you're public, you're one of thousands of companies. Um, and that's its own dynamic. But the consequence of this is is that private investors are often selling to management teams. And at some level that can mean telling management teams what they need to hear because you want to be able to keep participating in the rounds. Once a company's public, you can buy or sell as you wish. And this means that investors feel freer to give companies management teams. And Zuckerberg Zuckerberg said, "Had I been public, had I been getting rigorous, detailed questions from really smart public equity investors, I think I would have, you know,

Chamath Palihapitiya: 顺便说一句,这个故事的第二个未公开的内情,也就是从未有人说过的事情,他打电话给我。他说,“嘿伙计,你们那边到底在搞什么鬼?”我回答说,“是啊,我知道。”因为我当时刚刚离职,然后我们写了一份商业计划书,我走到 Zuck 面前,对他说,“这是你需要去做的所有事情的计划书。”

Original English

by the way, the second unwritten story of that, which has never been said, he called me. He's like, "Hey, man, what the is going on over there?" Uh, and I was like, "Yeah, I know." Cuz I had just left and then we wrote a deck and I walked over to Zuck and I'm like, "Here's the deck of what you need to do." Yeah,

Brad Gerstner: 去做这些事情。这是一个关键点。我认为 Gavin 刚才说到点子上了,当你保持私有化的时候,作为 CEO 和管理团队,你得不到干净、真实的信息,因为人们想要进入你的公司(获得份额)。一旦你说了实话或者提出了尖锐的问题,你可能就会失去获取份额的机会。

Original English

do these things. Well, this is a key point. I think Gavin is when you're private, you do not get clean information as the CEO and the management team because people want access and once you give the truth or you ask the hard questions, you might lose access

Gavin Baker: 百分之百是这样。

Original English

100%.

Brad Gerstner: 私募市场那种阿谀奉承的病态性质是真实存在的。

Original English

The sickopantic nature of private markets is real.

Gavin Baker: 当然,一个极其出色的 CEO……

Original English

Now, an exceptional CEO

Brad Gerstner: 像 Elon(马斯克)。

Original English

Elon

Gavin Baker: 他会主动去寻找负面反馈,寻求那种声音。

Original English

seeks out negative feedback. looking for that.

Brad Gerstner: 但并不会很多人去主动摒弃好话。也许并没有多少 CEO 的大脑是这样运作的。顺便说一下,我认为我们必须给 Brad 记上一功。那是一份非常棒的商业计划书。

Original English

But not many and actively discards, but not many CEOs maybe are are wired that way. And by the way, I do think we have to give Brad credit. That was a very good deck.

Chamath Palihapitiya: 你说的是在 2012 年的时候。

Original English

You said back in 2012.

Brad Gerstner: 不,因为他还做了第二份。

Original English

No, cuz he did a second one. He had

Jason Calacanis: 当他做第二份的时候,他在结尾给扎克伯格写了一封公开信。那是在 2022 年底吗?

Original English

when he did the second one, he did the open letter to Zuckerberg at the end of Was that at the end of 22?

Brad Gerstner: 是 2022 年 10 月。

Original English

October 22.

Jason Calacanis: 为什么你不说出来?那个“变得精干”(Get fit)的呼吁。那是个什么主题?

Original English

Why don't you call it? Get fit. What was the uh time to get fit?

Brad Gerstner: “变得精干的时刻”(Time to get fit)。那产生了巨大的影响。那是两份非常具有影响力的文件。

Original English

Time to get fit. That was an impact. Those are two very impactful.

SPV乱象与资产阶级化

Jason Calacanis: 好的。听着,大家正在听支持公司上市的多头观点,但 Kelly,请你站在红队反方的角度来说说,因为你在另一边。你建立了一家私人企业,然后把它卖给了 Schwab,所以很明显,现在最大的金融机构之一正在强行闯入这个市场。但随后你也看到了很多阻力。Anthropic 的态度是,“嘿,解散这些 SPV。”我认为 OpenAI 今天也在说,现在就解散这些 SPV。我们应该解散 SPV 吗?它们是从哪里来的?为什么你认为自己站在了历史正确的一边?

Original English

Okay. So look, there's you're you're hearing the bulls on going public, but Kelly, take the red team the other side because you're on the other side. You built a private business, you sold it to Schwab, so clearly one of the largest financial institutions now is going to ram its way into this market. But then you're seeing a lot of push back. Anthropic is like, "Hey, uh, dissolve these SPVS." OpenAI, I think, was saying today now, dissolve these SPVS. Should we dissolve the SPVS? Where are they coming from? And why are you on the right side of history?

Chamath Palihapitiya: 以及,你有没有被迫解散过你们交易平台上的任何 SPV?

Original English

And and have you had to dissolve any of the ones on your marketplace?

Kelly Rodriguez: 没有。

Original English

No.

Jason Calacanis: 没有。

Original English

No. Look, I think that uh first of all, being a private company CEO for

Kelly Rodriguez: 听着,我认为首先,我职业生涯的大部分时间都是在担任私有公司的 CEO,然后又当了三年的上市公司 CEO,我认识到这两份工作截然不同。当上市公司 CEO 要无趣得多。你不再是在做……

Original English

most of my career and then being a public company CEO for three years, I recognize the job is incredibly different. It's much less fun. Uh you're not doing

Brad Gerstner: 等等。你说要无趣得多是什么意思?作为一家上市公司的 CEO,你的工作主要是转变为一名投资经理,这与作为一名极具远见、产品至上、遵循第一性原理的私营企业 CEO 是一份完全不同的工作。当你成为上市公司的 CEO,一切都变了。我想说,在我们现在的世界里,你能融到的资金规模,也就是刚才上一场讨论中提到的那种资本规模,允许你大幅延长你处于私有化阶段的寿命。SpaceX 已经作为私有公司存在 24 年了。但是现实情况是,现在这些新兴的 SPV 之所以出现,是因为这些公司变得如此庞大,以至于一个新市场正在努力诞生。像 SpaceX 这样的公司在这方面做得非常出色。他们本质上运行流动性计划已经近十年了,因为不管是想要成为投资者的人,还是因为 Gavin 提到的一些原因想要获得流动性的人,都被压抑了太多的需求。所以我认为我们现在看到的是这一进程的下一个阶段。这笔与 Forge 达成的 Schwab 交易基本是在向世界宣告,这是一个真实的资产类别。它不仅仅是二级市场。我们将把这些公司,也就是公司的股权,放入基金产品中,放入管理完善、受监管的 SPV 结构中,因为它们在市场上确实发挥了作用。

Original English

Hold on. What do you mean when you say much less fun? Turning into an investment manager primarily as a public company CEO is a very different job than being a visionary [clears throat] product first uh first principles business when you become a public company CEO everything changes and I would say in the world we're in now the kind of capital you can raise the kind of capital that was represented in the very last discussion allows you to extend extend your private life. SpaceX private company for 24 years. Um but the reality is these SPVS that are now emerging because these companies are getting so big is because a market's trying to happen and a company like SpaceX has done this extraordinarily well. They've run essentially liquidity programs for almost a decade because there's so much pent-up interest in both being an investor and getting liquidity for some of the reasons that Gavin was mentioning. So I think what we see now is the next phase of this this Schwab deal with Forge basically says to the world this is a real asset class. It's more than just secondaries. We're going to put these companies, the company's equity into fund products into very well-managed, regulated SPV structures because they do serve a purpose in the market.

Jason Calacanis: 是的。但如果你去游说,当 Elon 想自己掌控局面,而且他有自己的团队,每六个月就自己运作一次的时候,你如何说服他专门把权限交给你?你怎么获得这种途径?你对下一个 Elon 的游说辞是什么?

Original English

Yeah. But if you're how do you convince Elon specifically to give you access to that when he wants to do it himself and he has a team and every six months he runs it himself? How do you get access to that? What's your pitch to the next Elon?

Kelly Rodriguez: 游说辞是这样的。游说辞是,你最终会从一家私有公司变成一家上市公司。Schwab 代表着 4600 万名投资者和 12 万亿美元的资金。这将会改变你获取资本的途径,以及你从私募走向上市时分配股票的方式。

Original English

Here's the pitch. The pitch is you're going to go from being a private company eventually to a public company. What Schwab represents is 46 million investors and 12 trillion. This will change capital access and the way that you distribute your shares moving from private to public.

Jason Calacanis: 当你用这个理由游说他们时,效果如何?

Original English

How did that work when you pitched them on that?

Kelly Rodriguez: 我告诉你。我们在 2018 年和 2019 年获得了我们第一批关于 SpaceX 的 SPV。

Original English

Were you Well, I'll tell you. We got our first SPVS on SpaceX in 2018 and 2019.

Jason Calacanis: 他同意了吗?

Original English

Were they was he okay with it?

Kelly Rodriguez: 绝对同意。完全是经过许可的。然后当我们越来越接近 IPO 时,我们说,“你猜怎么着?我们有 3000 万散户投资者希望能够拥有哪怕 5 万美元的 SpaceX 份额。”然后他就在公开场合谈到了在 IPO 价格上进行广泛的分配。

Original English

Absolutely. Totally permissioned. And then as we got closer to the IPO, we said, "Guess what? Um, we've got 30 million retail investors that would like to have a $50,000 slice of SpaceX." And and he went out [snorts] publicly and talked about having broad-based distribution

Jason Calacanis: 在 IPO 的价格上。

Original English

at the IPO price.

Kelly Rodriguez: 在 IPO 价格上,并且 Schwab 被指定为 IPO 配售机构之一。

Original English

At the IPO price and Schwab was named one of the IPO allocations.

Gavin Baker: 漂亮。我确实认为这实际上是一个非常有效的游说理由。我认为很多这类 CEO,他们对此都有点矛盾心理,我认为他们明白,也许那些投资他们私募轮次的机构,它们可能代表着工会,可能代表着退休计划,但我确实认为他们喜欢将投资机会平民化这种理念。如果他们正在打造他们认为是伟大的东西,给普通美国人一个参与的机会。我实际上认为这对很多这类 CEO 来说是一个非常有吸引力的故事。

Original English

Beautiful. I do think this is actually a very effective pitch. I think a lot of these CEOs, they're a little bit ambivalent about, you know, and I think they understand that maybe the institutions who are investing in these private rounds, you know, they may represent, you know, unions, they may represent retirement plans, but I do think they like the idea of democratizing access and if they're building something that they think is great, giving ordinary Americans an opportunity to participate. I actually think that's a very appealing story to to a lot of these CEOs

Jason Calacanis: 因为他们是资本家,他们懂得股权的力量。所以 Brad,

Original English

because they're capitalists and and they understand the power of equity. So Brad,

Chamath Palihapitiya: 那么对于你现在参与的直接触达受众(go direct)运动来说,负面影响是什么?BG2 播客正式成了第五大好朋友(fifth bestie)。Gavin 正式成了第六大好朋友。你有——那是 Gavin。这是最新消息。今天我们正式宣布你成为第六大好朋友。

Original English

what is the downside then of cuz you're part of the go direct movement now? BG2 pod officially fifth bestie. Gavin officially sixth bestie. You [laughter] got that's Gavin. That's new news. We officially made you six bestie today.

Brad Gerstner: 但这是否意味着我肯定排在 Brad 后面了?因为这才是真正的大新闻。

Original English

But does that mean I'm definitively behind Brad? Cuz [laughter] that that's the real news.

Jason Calacanis: 你正站在 Brad 的身后。你就在他身后给他一个大大的熊抱。

Original English

I can You're standing behind Brad. You're just giving him that big bear hug right behind him.

Brad Gerstner: 哇哦。

Original English

Wow.

Chamath Palihapitiya: 所以你的意思是我成了背后那个大勺子(big spoon,指拥抱时在后面的人)?

Original English

So, are you saying I'm the big spoon?

Jason Calacanis: 你现在就是大勺子了,在这套带着多余勺子的餐具抽屉里。

Original English

You're the big spoon now [laughter] in the in the side draw with the extra spoons.

二级市场降温警告:不要盲目跟风

Brad Gerstner: 不过 Brad,气氛变得很快就很奇怪了。

Original English

But Brad, it's getting very weird very quick.

Jason Calacanis: 说正经的,能力越大,责任越大。有时候人们拥有的热情可能会脱离现实。

Original English

In all seriousness, with great power comes great responsibility. Sometimes the, you know, the enthusiasm people can have can exceed reality.

Brad Gerstner: 没错。

Original English

Correct.

Jason Calacanis: 走直接面对受众的路线,你变得更加稳重了。我注意到随着你的知名度提升,你是这样的。

Original English

Going direct, you've become more measured. I've noticed as your profile has gone up.

Brad Gerstner: 我认为我们所有人都必须——就像确保人们不要盲目跟风交易一样。不要……

Original English

I think all of us have to like just make sure people don't blindly follow trades. Don't

Jason Calacanis: 我有几次在 CNBC 上看到你在降温,你说,“嘿,我认为普通美国人不需要投资某些这样的公司。还需要时间。”

Original English

you were talking stuff down on CNBC a couple of times saying, "Hey, I don't think the average American needs to be in some of these companies. There's time."

Brad Gerstner: 我很担心。在当前的市场阶段我很担心,特别是在 CNBC 上,你是对坐在家里的散户投资者讲话。

Original English

I get worried. I get worried at this point in the market stage, particularly on CNBC where you're talking to retail investors at home. Yes,

Jason Calacanis: 我曾经也是那种散户,仰视着这个舞台上的每一个人,相信这个舞台上的每一个人。而当人们告诉你,用只顾眼前(yolo,you only live once)的心态冲进采用双重收费结构的 SPV 等等这些东西里面时,你知道的,就应该说“现在是时候小心谨慎,做足功课,深思熟虑了。”我们参与其中是因为我们希望这种大众化能长久持续下去。

Original English

I was one of those retail guys looking up to everybody on this stage, trusting everybody on this stage. And when people are telling you to yolo into right double fee structure, SPVS and all this, you know, like it's time to be careful, to do your work, to be thoughtful. We're in this because we want this to be durable democratization for a long time. Yeah.

Brad Gerstner: 我们希望在那些感觉在资本主义制度中被排除在外、被落下的人中间建立信任。我们都认为公司需要尽早上市。我认为,当你正在创造数以万亿计的私人价值,而 80% 的美国人认为这是一个把他们排除在外、将他们甩在后面的骗局时,这是会破坏稳定(destabilizing)的。

Original English

We want to build trust among those who feel left out and left behind in capitalism. We all think that we need to go public sooner. The reason I think we it is destabilizing when you're creating trillions of dollars in private value and 80% of America think it's a scam where they're left out and left behind. That's

Jason Calacanis: 然后他们又一窝蜂涌进来。

Original English

and then they come rushing in

Brad Gerstner: 他们手里拿到的可能不是什么好牌。

Original English

and they could be not so good cards,

Jason Calacanis: 对吧?所以,我只是想说,就像我上周在 CNBC 被问到的那样,如果你手头有 10 万美元的新资金,你正坐在家里,今天你会把所有钱都投进市场吗?我说,不,我会考虑分批投入。我们在过去的 10 年里刚刚经历了公开市场最大的两个单月涨幅。这都是涨幅惊人的月份。所以如果我有一叠 10 万块钱,我今天可能只会拿 3 万投入。我永远无法精准抄底,也永远无法精准逃顶,但我绝对不会把所有的钱一次性全部投进去。对于后期的私募项目我也是这么说的,那些闭着眼睛梭哈进这些项目的人,然后他们会感到非常失望。他们会想,“等一下。我买了 SpaceX 的 IPO 份额,但它并没有涨 3 倍啊。”

Original English

right? So, all I'm saying, like I said about they asked the question on CNBC last week, if you had $100,000 of fresh capital and you were sitting at home, is today the day that you would shove it all into the market? And I said, no, I think about it in sizes, right? We just had two of the biggest months in the last 10 years in the public markets. They've been big months. So, if I had a stack of a hundred, I may put 30 to work today. I'm never going to pick the bottom. I'm never going to pick the top, but I certainly wouldn't be putting it all to work. And I'd say the same thing about latestage privates, people who are yoloing into this stuff, and then they feel really disappointed. They're like, "Hold on a second. I bought the SpaceX IPO and it didn't go up 3x."

Chamath Palihapitiya: 那我来问你。

Original English

Let me ask you then.

Brad Gerstner: 嗯。

Original English

Yeah.

Chamath Palihapitiya: 你是否把这视作你退出获取流动性的机会?比如,你是否会塑造你的投资组合和回报,并越来越多地说:“你知道吗?我不知道这家伙什么时候会上市。”

Original English

Do you view this as exit liquidity for you? Like, would you shape your portfolio and returns and increasingly say, "You know what? I don't know when this guy's going to go public."

Brad Gerstner: 是的。

Original English

Yes.

Chamath Palihapitiya: “让我把这些东西甩卖出去吧。让我拿回现金分配。让我把它发给我的 LP 们,然后一天的工作就结束了。”

Original English

Let me just pump the stuff out. Let me get the distribution. and let me send it to my LPs and just call it a day.

Brad Gerstner: 我们正在这个市场中进行抛售退出。

Original English

We we are selling into this.

Chamath Palihapitiya: 你正在往这里面抛售,

Original English

You're selling into this,

公开市场逻辑重塑私募风险投资

Brad Gerstner: 是的,对吧?所以我这个房间里有 LP 们说,“听着,我们在 7 到 8 年前投资了你的 VC5 或 VC6 基金。如果你能以 4 到 5 倍的回报卖掉其中一部分,我们拿到 DPI,而且它的定价真的很高,那就去卖掉一部分吧。”在风险投资界,我们经常不谈论这个。我们做的有一半是在公开市场。Gavin 和我每天早上起床都会想,我们今天是应该买还是应该卖?风险投资家通常不考虑卖的部分。他们只考虑买的部分。所以如果我们要保持私有化更长时间,我们将会有价值万亿美元的私有公司,或者像 Databricks 这样价值 2000 亿美元的公司,你必须考虑今天是不是一个我们应该卖出一些并返还给投资者们的日子,因为……

Original English

right? So, I have LPs in this room who say, "Listen, we invested in your VC5 or VC6 7 or 8 years ago. If you can go sell a slice of that at four or 5x and we get DPI and it's priced really high, then go sell some of it." And we often don't talk about this in Venturland. Half of what we do is in the public markets. Gavin and I get up every morning and we think to ourselves, should we buy today or should we sell today? Venture capitalists don't think about the sell part. They think about the buy part. So one of if we're going to stay private for longer and we're going to have trillion dollar you know private companies and data bricks at $200 billion you got to think about is today a day we should be selling some and returning it to our investors because

Chamath Palihapitiya: 但这难道不会像 Jason 说的那样,造成非常复杂的人际性格动态问题吗?也许你会被拒之门外,无法投资一家新公司,也许你会被排除在一轮增资之外,你知道,会产生仇怨,因为你是一个有信誉的投资者。这存在这种释放信号的风险。而在私募领域,如果你和 Gavin 决定套现退出,没人会知道。

Original English

doesn't it create though as as what Jason said these very complicated personality dynamics where maybe you get shut out of a new company maybe you get shut out of an incremental round and you know there's bad blood because you're a credible investor And there's this signaling risk. Whereas in the privates, if you and Gavin decide to sell, nobody knows.

Brad Gerstner: 嗯,不。在私募领域,没人知道。

Original English

Well, no. In the in in the private, nobody knows.

Chamath Palihapitiya: 完全正确。公开市场的他们只有在我们的 13F 报告出来时才会知道。好的。

Original English

Exactly. The public's they don't know until our 13F comes out. Okay.

Brad Gerstner: 但在私募市场,这永远是我和创始人之间的对话,我会说:“听着,我们将要卖掉我们 30% 的仓位。”他们从来都不喜欢这样,Chamath。他们总是会说,“我们希望你不要那样做。他们不希望这事被公开知道”之类的话。但我作为对这些 LP 负责的受托人,我的职责就是要去卖出。

Original English

But in the private market, it's always a conversation between me and the founder to say, "Listen, we're we're going to sell 30% of our position." They never like it, Chimath. They're always like, "We wish you wouldn't do that. They don't want it known, etc." But my job as a fiduciary to the LPs of this is to do that.

Jason Calacanis: Gavin,确实感觉我们在早期风险投资领域已经跨越到了一个存在“第三条道路”的阶段。你要么公司被并购,而我们在昨天的演讲中看到,在 Lina(FTC主席莉娜·汗)的愤怒压制下,根本没有并购,他们直接冻结了市场。现在它正在恢复。IPO 在某些时期确实也遭遇了市场的冰封。但这第三条道路现在太棒了。我可以告诉你,作为早期中的早期投资者,我们现在是享有同等权益的(pari passu),抓住一切机会在抛售,因为我们的平均投资估值在 1000 万到 2000 万美元之间。当他们达到 5 亿美元估值时,我告诉创始人你将要在 5 亿美元时开始套现。我要和你并排一起卖出,这样我就能投资进入市场的下一个“你”。每个人都能接受。但我可以告诉你,六七年前我和一家公司做这种事的时候,他们在 2021 年到达 ZIRP(零利率政策)时期的巅峰时,哀求我不要参与套现,他们求我,“JCal,你必须对我们忠诚,你不能同比例抛售。”我回答说,“你们正在这轮 1.1 亿美元的融资里套现 4000 万美元,我只是要求和你们一起出售相同的金额。”我可以问 Kelly 一个问题吗,你如何将这个过程系统化,让它像交易所一样运作?比如,如果我们就想直接达成出价交易,我们该怎么做?因为我不喜欢二级市场的一点是,你知道,我问我的 CFO,他打了五个电话,然后我的基金 CFO 又打了四个电话。你知道的。

Original English

It does feel Gavin like we have crossed over for early stage venture to a point in which there is a third way. Either your company had M&A and we saw in the presentation yesterday that during the wrath of Lena there was no M&A and they just froze the market. Now it's coming back. IPOs we did have some freezing of that market for certain periods. But this third way is now fantastic. I can tell you as the earliest of the early we are now pari pursu selling into every chance we get because our average investment is at 10 to$20 million valuations. When they hit 500 million I tell the founder you're going to start selling at 500 million. I'm going to sell right alongside you so that I can invest in the next you coming into the market. Everybody's fine with it. I but I can tell you six or seven years ago when I did this with a company they begged me to not participate when they hit peak zerp 2021 they begged me Jay Cal you have to be loyal to us you can't sell paru and I said you you guys are clearing 40 million of the $110 million [clears throat] round I'm just asking to be next to you same amount can I ask Kelly a question how do you systematize this so that it's like an exchange so like if we just want to hit the bid we can do it like what I don't like about the secondary markets is, you know, I ask my CFO, he calls five guys, then my fun CFO, she calls like four. You know,

Brad Gerstner: 这就像票贩子一样。我们拿到一堆报价。全都毫无逻辑可言。然后我就想,

Original English

it's like ticket brokers. We get a bunch of bids. None of it makes any sense. And I'm like,

Jason Calacanis: 而且正如 Brad 所说,我已经要在应付来自 CEO 的焦躁情绪了。

Original English

and I'm already dealing with, as Brad said, the agit from the CEO.

Brad Gerstner: 这个过程一定能比这更简单。就像,

Original English

It's got to be easier than this. Like,

构建正规的二级市场流动性网络

Kelly Rodriguez: 是的。你看,我们在十年前就说过,必须要有基础设施来实现这一目标。这不能只是一个庞大的影子市场。我们现在正处于这样一个转折点:我们花了过去三年的时间建立这个全新的平台,这样一家公司就可以像在交易所上市一样接入它,并说我们要提供流动性。此外,如果你是一家 VC(风险投资机构),并且在这家公司的资本结构中待了 10 年,你希望为 LP 提供流动性,你也可以在里面做到。

Original English

yes. Yeah. Look, we 10 years ago, we said there needs to be infrastructure to pull this off. This can't just be a big shadow market. We're sort of in this tipping point now where we spent the last 3 years building this brand new platform so that a company could plug into it the same way they could list on an exchange and say we're going to offer liquidity. And furthermore, if you're a VC and you're on that cap structure for 10 years and you want to offer LP liquidity, you can do it in

Jason Calacanis: 说具体点。你说的“比如我们会接入 Schwab 那 3000 万正在买东西的个人用户里”是什么意思?

Original English

to be specific. What do you mean you're like we would be plugging into Schwab's 30 million humans that are buying stuff on?

Kelly Rodriguez: 存在这样一个平台。我们带来了一个拥有大约 300 万投资者的平台,现在我们将在这个基础上再加上 4600 万名投资者。

Original English

There's there's a platform. We brought a a platform with about 3 million investors and now we're going to add 46 million investors to them.

Jason Calacanis: 是的,但是等等。那些人是合格投资者(accredited investors)吗?他们必须是合格的吗?因为我们刚刚采访了美国证券交易委员会(SEC)的主席。

Original English

Yeah. But wait, hold on a second. Aren't those are those accredited investors? Do they need to be? Because we just had the chair of the SEC on

Kelly Rodriguez: 在今天,如果你交易个股,无论是在 SPV 中还是直接在公司股权名册上交易,你都必须是合格投资者。然而,现在市场上正在推出一些产品,我们可以稍后详细讨论,这些产品包含了 60 家公司,包括 SpaceX,它们是最低门槛为 500 美元的非合格投资者(unaccredited)上市产品。这些基金的资金将构成底层资产。

Original English

So today, if you are trading individual shares, whether it's in an SPV or direct on a cap table, you're accredited. However, there are products coming to market, we can talk about this in detail later, that have 60 companies, including SpaceX, that are listed products for unacredited $500 minimums. And that capital for those funds will be the underlying

Jason Calacanis: 封闭式基金(closed end funds)。

Original English

closed end funds.

Kelly Rodriguez: 这些是区间基金(interval funds)。

Original English

These are interval funds.

Jason Calacanis: 区间基金。他现在已经发了一支。

Original English

Interval funds. He's got one out now.

Kelly Rodriguez: 我想 Naval 最近刚把 USVC 弄成这种模式的其中之一了。他会给这模式贡献力量。

Original English

I think Naval just did USVC as one of these. He's gonna contribute to

Brad Gerstner: 现在,封闭式基金是一种非常不同的押注,因为你是在赌一种错失恐惧症(FOMO)。因为如果你审视这些封闭式基金中一些资产的潜在价值,它们与这些基础股票的实际价值毫无关系。因此,价格发现是这种结构性转变的另一个关键组成部分。但要具体回答你的问题,如果一个风投的 LP 想要进行资本循环或者想要获得流动性,那么这样一个平台将允许他们回收这笔资金,如果他们愿意的话,可以将其再投入到下一期(vintage)基金中。

Original English

now. the closed end funds are are a very different bet because you're betting on FOMO because if you look at the underlying value of some of the assets and those closed end funds they have no bearing to reality of what those underlying shares are actually worth. So price discovery is another key component of this structural shift. But to answer your question specifically, if a VC's LPs want to recycle or want to get liquid, then a platform like this will allow them to recycle that capital and put it back into the next vintage fund if they want.

Chamath Palihapitiya: 基于这个,我有一个问题要问你。当这些回报数据公布时,风投行业的平均回报率看起来会非常惊人。但中位数回报率依然会很低。所以请给我们详细讲讲,人们将如何应对这种情况,以及明年即将发生的现实是什么。

Original English

I have a I have a question for you based on this. When these returns come out, the mean return in venture is going to look incredible. The median return is still going to be So walk us through how people will sort through that and the reality of what's going to happen in the next year.

Gavin Baker: 好的,我认为有两点非常重要。第一,我观察到,如果你是一家风险投资公司,并且你在这些估值超过万亿美元的公司中没有占据实质性的份额——毕竟你曾经有过很多次买入的机会——那不仅你的回报率不会好看,而且在相对的基础上你也不会有任何 DPI(投入资本分红率)。你的 DPI 会很惨。当然也有例外,你知道有些出色的 A 轮投资机构,他们可能没有投资这些巨头,但他们的回报依然惊人,DPI 也很好。但我开始看到,那些在这些万亿公司中没有投资敞口的风险投资公司,开始表现出奇怪的举动。因为我认为他们开始感受到了一些声誉风险,因为他们的 DPI 和回报率将从“嘿,我们是第一梯队”滑落到后面去。

Original English

Well, so I think there's there's two very important things. one, I observe if you if you were a venture firm and you do not have material exposure to one of these trillion dollar plus companies that you had many many chances, you know, to to buy into. You're not only your returns not going to be good, but you're not going to have DPI on a relative basis, but you're not going to have DPI. And you know, there's exceptions. you know are you know you know great series A firms they may not have this but their returns are still amazing with great DPI but in so I am beginning to see venture firms who don't have exposure to one of these companies behave in strange ways because I think they're starting to feel a little bit of franchise risk because their DPI and their returns are going to go from you know hey top quintile top tile tile

Jason Calacanis: 所以他们正在做出不理智的追高。他们在做反常的事。

Original English

so they're doing unnatural ads doing unnatural things.

Gavin Baker: 他们正在做我眼中的“看涨期权”(call options)式的投资,比如投资一大堆这类的新型实验室(Neolabs)。“反正我需要一个故事。我已经出手了。”也许其中一些看涨期权会有回报,但我确实认为他们在某种层面上是在进行……

Original English

They're writing what I see as call options, like a bunch of these, you know, Neolabs. Well, I need a story. I've done something. And maybe some of these call options pay off, but I do think they're engaging at some level and maybe

Jason Calacanis: 他们在追高。

Original English

they're chasing it.

Gavin Baker: 他们正在用赌博术语追涨。而那些已经拥有这类项目投资敞口的人,则表现得更加自律,因为他们知道自己已经处于极佳的位置。

我认为另一个非常重要的动态将发生在只能做多(long-only)的共同基金和交叉基金领域。所以,那些只能做多的共同基金,比如我的前雇主富达(Fidelity),一个很棒的地方,我很喜欢那里。还有 Baillie Gifford、Capital Research、Wellington、T. Rowe Price,根据 SEC 的规定,它们都可以将高达 15% 的资金分配到私募市场。这些是世界上最大的资金池,它们的规模让主权财富基金相形见绌。但是,绝大多数公司因为不想惹上 SEC 的麻烦,它们会说:“嘿,我们将把这个比例限制在 3%5%7%。”这件事非常公开。Baillie Gifford 去年因为监管原因被迫出售了 SpaceX 的股份。

Original English

They're chasing gambling terms. Whereas the people who have exposure to this, I are being a lot more disciplined because they know they're in in in a great position. I think another very important dynamic is going to happen in the world of longon only mutual funds and crossover funds. So, Long Only Mutual Funds, uh, you know, my for former employer, Fidelity, amazing place, love it. Uh, Bailey Gford, Capital Research, Wellington, Tro, they all can, per SEC rules, allocate up to 15% of their funds into privates. And these are the biggest pools of capital in the world. They dwarf sovereign wealth funds. But, you know, most firms, because they don't want to get in trouble with the SEC, they say, "Hey, we're going to cap it at 3% or 5% or 7%. It was very public. Bailey Gford was forced to sell SpaceX last year

Jason Calacanis: 出于监管原因。当一家公司上市且锁定期结束时,它就会移出那个(私募)配额池。漂亮。

Original English

for regulatory reasons. And um what's going to happen as these companies go public? All of these long only mutual funds are by and large finding it hard to participate in private markets right now because they're at the limits of their self-imposed

Gavin Baker: 对,3% 或者 5%

Original English

3%

Jason Calacanis: 3% 到 5%。

Original English

3 5%.

Gavin Baker: 当一家公司上市且锁定期结束时,它就会移出那个配额桶。

Original English

When a company goes public and the lockup expires, it moves out of that bucket. Nice.

Gavin Baker: 所以,在离开市场一段时间后,这将是数千亿美元规模的新的后期阶段需求回流到市场。

Original English

So, this is going to be hundreds of billions of dollars of new late stage demand that is coming back to the market after kind of being out out of the market for a while.

Jason Calacanis: 那可是大量的干火药(闲置资金)。有非常多的干火药。

Original English

That's a lot of dry powder. There's a lot of dry powder.

Brad Gerstner: 净交易量是上升的。那么边际交易量也是上升的。

Original English

The net trade is up. Then the the marginal trade is is up.

Jason Calacanis: 创始人们将会处于绝对有利的地位(catbird seat)。人们会四处寻找把钱投出去的机会。关于合格投资者规则有一些有趣的传言。我们邀请 SEC 主席上了 All-In 播客做采访。我们做到了。他们将采用一项针对成熟投资者的测试,这是我很长一段时间以来一直在谈论的事情,它将真正实现像 Invest America 这样项目的民主化参与。

然后是基金。多年来,我一直听到有人游说,“哦,把你的基金放到区块链上吧”,或者“把你的基金卖给这种 ETF”。也许你可以谈谈,Kelly,关于风险投资基金变得像二级市场股票那样更具交易流动性的可能性。这在你的路线图上吗?显然,对此是有需求的。如果能像买卖 Anthropic 的股票那样自由进出这些基金,对于 Brad、Chamath 和他们以前基金的 LP 来说,我的天啊,那对那些经历离婚等生活变故,只需要更多流动性的人来说将会是难以置信的好事。

Original English

Founders are going to be in the cap bird seat. People are going to be looking to put money to work. Interesting buzz going around about accreditation rules. We had the head of the SEC on Allins interview show. We did it. And they're going to have a sophisticated investor test, something I've been talking about for a long time that would really democratize the way Invest America has access. Um, and then funds. I've been getting pitched for years on, oh, put your fund on blockchain or sell your fund into this ETF. Maybe you could talk a little, Kelly, about the possibilities around venture funds being more tradable like secondaries are. Is that on your road map? Obviously, there's demand for it. What would that because I can tell you what that would do for my LPs, you know, Brad Chamat's LPs and and previous funds. If you could come in and out of these funds, the way you can come in and out of anthropic, my lord, that could be just incredible for folks who, I don't know, they have a divorce, they have a life event, you know, just a little more fluidity.

Kelly Rodriguez: 实际上,二级市场基金交易已经存在很长时间了。我认为区块链和代币化使其变得更加高效。那个世界终将到来。但我们现在在问自己的问题是,如果你是一家持有如此有价值资产的基金的 LP,你真的对交易你的基金仓位感兴趣吗?还是你只是想……

Original English

So, there's been there's been secondary fund trading for a long time. Um, I think blockchain and tokenization makes it more efficient. That world will will come. But the question we're asking ourselves now is if you're an LP in a fund that's holding something as valuable as this, uh, are are you really interested in trading your fund position or do you just want to get out of

Jason Calacanis: 从那个最大的赢家标的里套现离开?

Original English

the big winner, that name?

Kelly Rodriguez: 我们的看法是,大概率是后者。有些情况下,基金会来找我们说,“我们有一只年份很久的基金,里面有两家 15 年历史的公司,我们无法清盘这只基金。”所以,这就是流动性在市场中的一种应用场景,我们认为它正在走向市场。

Original English

Um, and and our view is it's probably the latter. Um, and in some cases funds will come to us and say, "We've got a vintage fund that has two companies in it that are 15 years old and we can't clear that fund." And so that's that's an application of liquidity to the market that we think is coming to the market.

AI 资产是否存在估值泡沫?

Jason Calacanis: 在接下来的一年里,你是否担心散户投资者成为这三家庞然大物公司的接盘侠(exit liquidity)?这有风险吗?你如何对风险进行分类并管理它?如果出了什么事会有什么风险?会有什么反噬?

Original English

Are you are you worried at all over this next year about this idea of retail being exit liquidity for these three ginormous companies? like is is there any risk? Like how do you bucket the risk? How do you manage the risk? Yeah. What is the risk if something were to happen? What's the blowback?

Kelly Rodriguez: 昨天我还和 Brad 谈论过这件事。我们看着这些估值和市盈率倍数。昨晚吃晚饭时我们也在讨论,当时说,“哇哦,这些数据太惊人了,人们应该进入这个市场。”而且……

Original English

I was talking with Brad about this yesterday. We're we're watching these valuations and these multiples. We had this conversation at dinner last night and saying, "Wow, these are these are extraordinary and people should come into this market." And

Jason Calacanis: “惊人”是一个暗语,意思是……

Original English

extraordinary is a coded word for

Kelly Rodriguez: 你懂的,好吧,无所谓。

Original English

uh it's you know, it's okay fine. Um

Jason Calacanis: 这是个泡沫。你的意思是,你认为它们的估值太高了。

Original English

it's a bubble. You're saying you're saying you think they're high the valuation.

Kelly Rodriguez: 我认为进入这个领域的散户投资者需要将目光向下延伸,去寻找那些有趣的、每天并没有出现在 CNBC 屏幕上的机会,并且更早地介入。在 2018 年和 2019 年,有一批散户投资者非常想投资 SpaceX,现在他们对能在当时 300 亿美元估值时入场感到兴奋不已。所以当市场开放时,这才是我们会讨论的重点:我现在想投资点什么,而不是去买那些处于市场估值最顶端、正在准备上市的公司。

Original English

I think the retail investor coming into this space needs to look down market and look at interesting opportunities that aren't the things that are on CNBC every day and have access to them earlier. And we had a bunch of retail investors show up in 2018 and 2019 that wanted to be in SpaceX and they're and they're thrilled that they got in when the valuation was 30 billion. Yeah. Um and I think if the market opens up, that's what we'll be talking about. what what's what what do I want to get into now that's not you know at the very very top of the market getting ready to go public

Jason Calacanis: 而且 Brad 和 Gavin,我们的表现也变好了。要给 Bill Gurley 点赞。我们在为这些 IPO 定价方面做得越来越好,不再把钱留在桌面上。大多数情况下,当它们公开上市时,它们的估值已经十分饱满(fully valued)了。

Original English

also Brad and Gavin we're getting better shout out to um Gurley we're getting better at pricing these IPOs and not leaving money on the table they're fully valued in most cases when they go public yeah or in some cases

Brad Gerstner: 或者在某些情况下,它们的定价依然是错位的,存在严重的错位定价。

Original English

they're still mispriced they're massively mispriced

Jason Calacanis: 没人在想要任何好东西。

Original English

nothing good that anybody wants

Brad Gerstner: 听着,不管怎样,你们怎么看,我们现在是不是更接近准确定价它们了?

Original English

I mean listen anyway what what do you guys think is are we are we closer to correctly pricing them?

Brad Gerstner: 我和 Gav 已经在这个行业干了 25 年了。有些时候公开市场相对于私募市场被低估了,有些时候私募市场相对于公开市场被低估了。而在当下,科技界所有的东西基本上都已经充分估值了,对吧?我们不可能经历了这样抛物线般的暴涨之后,还认为一切都很便宜。这并不是说我们不能涨得更高,但当你像我们所有人过去 15 年在科技领域那样多次遭受重拳打击后,我们知道增长轨迹是一条向右上角曲折上升的线。所以对于散户投资者来说,只要他们有持久的持有能力,如果你要推出一款产品,只要散户能在这个产品里挺过回撤期,他们就会没事的。问题是大多数散户都在顶点闭着眼睛满仓杀入(yolo),因为大家都把他们的情绪调动起来了,让他们很兴奋,所以他们加了杠杆。他们正在做两倍杠杆交易之类的事情,这就是 Gav 和我看到的。在 SpaceX 进行 IPO 的那一天,有 14 支杠杆 ETF 正在发行,赌 SpaceX 的估值能达到 1.75 万亿左右。所以,这只告诉我市场上有很多噪音信号。我们可能还没到顶点,但也绝对不在底部。我们正在颠簸中前行。顶点可能是公平的,你知道的,你必须相应地进行资产配置。这就是主动管理(active management)的意义所在。如果我们不考虑这一点,当人们在伊朗战争爆发时向垃圾桶里呕吐,市场大跌时,Gavin 和我互相看着对方说:“天哪,Anthropic 的收入数据简直好到爆表。我们必须投入更多风险资金。向 Anthropic 和公开市场股票桌面上投入更多资金。”但是 75 天后,一切都变了。现在的市场……

Original English

I mean Gav and I have been doing this 25 years. There are moments that the public market is undervalued relative to privates and moments where privates are undervalued relative to public. Right now everything in the world of technology is pretty fully valued, right? Like it's you can't have the parabolic moves we've had and think that everything is cheap. That's not to say that we're not going to go higher, but when you've been punched in the faces many times, as all of us have over the last 15 years in technology, we know it's a jagged line up and to the right. So for the retail investor, so long as they have staying power, so if if you're going to launch a product, as long as the retail investor can stay in that product through the draw down, they're going to do fine. The problem is most of them yolo at the top because everybody gets them all jimmied up and excited and so they're, you know, they're levering up. They're doing 2x levered, you know, memory trades and all this that Gav and I are. There are 14 ETFs launching on the day of the SpaceX IPO that are levered ETFs into SpaceX at like whatever 1.75 trillion. So, this just tells me that there's a lot of signal. We may not be at the top, but we ain't at the bottom. We're bouncing along. The top might be a fair, you know, you got to allocate accordingly. And that's what active management is about. If we do not if we're not thinking about that, when when people are puking into their garbage cans at the start of the Iran war and the market is down, Gavin and I are looking at each other and saying, "Good God, these anthropic revenues are off the charts. We got to get more dollars at risk. shove more onto the table in both anthropic and public market stocks. But then 75 days later, it's all changed. Right now, the market,

Chamath Palihapitiya: 你们有没有经历过这样的市场周期:这些波动在时间上极其集中,你把大概需要一两年的波动,压缩到了 30 天、60 天之内?

Original English

have you guys ever been in a market cycle [clears throat] where these moves are just so concentrated in time where you take like a year or two's worth of moves and you compress it into 30 days, 60 days?

Brad Gerstner: 我是说,与 1999 年和 2000 年相比,这根本算不上什么。

Original English

I mean, this is nothing relative to 99 and 2000.

Chamath Palihapitiya: 根本算不上。这和那时没法比。

Original English

Nothing. This is nothing relative to that.

Jason Calacanis: 描述一下。对,稍微总结一下。有时候年轻人可能不清楚。如果是过山车的话,1999 到 2000 年是什么样的?

Original English

Like, I mean, describe describe. Yeah. Just package. Sometimes they wake up. What was 992000 like in terms of like a if this is a roller coaster, what was that?

Gavin Baker: 那是什么?我的意思是,你知道,现在的这轮更像是一种平缓的正弦波式的过山车。

Original English

Yeah. And what was that? I mean, I don't you know, this is this is this is like a uh this is a roller coaster that's um like kind of a gentle sinewave.

Brad Gerstner: 1999 年就像是磕了太多药后在拉斯维加斯度过的周五狂欢夜。完全失控的疯狂。CMGI 没有任何收入,股票在六个月内从 2 美元涨到了 2000 美元。他们买下了福克斯伯勒体育场(Foxboro Stadium)。他们登上了《时代》杂志的封面,然后两年后就破产了,对吧?这与 Anthropic、OpenAI 和 SpaceX 完全不同。这些都是极其真实的业务。所以我认为更好的比较对象是 2021 年。

Original English

99 was Vegas on a Friday night after way too many drugs. Okay. Like it was out of control nuts. CMGI had no revenue and the stock went from $2 to $2,000 over the course of, you know, six months. They buy Foxboro Stadium. They're on the cover of Time magazine and they're out of business 2 years later, right? Like that is very different than Anthropic, Open AAI, and SpaceX. These are extraordinarily real businesses. So, I think the better compare is like 2021. Yeah.

Gavin Baker: 对。当估值脱离基本面,或者处于区间的最高端时。公开市场的半导体指数可能会出现 10% 或 20% 的正常、普通的盘整,这意味着高贝塔系数股票将会下跌 30% 到 40%,而很多刚刚入场的人会感到恐慌。但是那些已经持仓了 6 个月或 3 年的人会意识到,这只是一个小小的波动。所以我不认为现在像当年那样。

Original English

Right. Where valuations get ahead of themselves or they're at the top end of the range. We could have a normal run-of-the-mill consolidation in the public markets in the semi-index of 10 or 20% which means high beta would be down 30 to 40% and a lot of people who just got in would be panicking right but the people who have been in for 6 months or 3 years would would would notice that that's just a blip. So I don't think it's at all like that.

未来独角兽预测与硬件投资机遇

Jason Calacanis: 好的。我有一个问题要问你们四位。这是最后一个问题。

Original English

Okay. I have a question for the three of you. Four. Yeah. Final question.

Jason Calacanis: 最后一个问题。把排名前十的未上市巨头排除掉。好的。忘掉它们。你不能选那几个。给我一家目前估值在几百亿规模的私有公司,如果你今天有机会通过二级市场买入它的股份而且你现在还没持有的话,你会想拥有哪家?Brad,从你开始。我们就轮流说一圈。一家你没持有,但如果有机会在二级市场买入你肯定会买的公司。

Original English

I have final question. Take the top 10 names private companies off. Okay. Forget those. You can't pick those. Give me a sub, you know, in the tens of billions, few hundred billion private company that you could buy today a secondary in that you do not own that you would want to own. I'll start with you, Brad. Just go around the horn. Something you don't own, but if you had the chance to buy a secondary, you would.

Brad Gerstner: 我的意思是,我会选择一家处于我所说的“拐点增长期”的公司,Chamath。所以,是指那些估值超过 30 亿但低于 500 亿的这几千家公司之一。我认为这是投资领域最棘手的区域。因为它们是高估值的受益者,但它们仍然面临着“成王败寇”的二元化风险(binary risk)。

Original English

I mean, I take a company, you know, in that what I call inflection growth, Jamas. So, these are companies, the thousand companies that are over 3 billion, but let's call it sub50 billion. I think it's the trickiest area of the investing landscape. Um, because they're the beneficiaries of high valuations, yet they still have binary risk.

Chamath Palihapitiya: 对。

Original English

Right.

Brad Gerstner: 像 Anthropic、OpenAI、SpaceX,我不认为这些公司有生死存亡的二元风险,但是在那个(低于 500 亿)范围里有很多公司是有的。所以我指的是,我们已经持有了大多数我想投资的公司。我给不出一个我们没投但我却想投的名字。如果我想拥有它,我通常已经买下了。

Original English

Right. Like Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX, I don't think these companies have binary risk, but there are a lot in, you know, in that bucket that do. Um, and so I mean, we own most of the ones I want to own. I I I can't give you one that we don't. If I want to own it, I I generally own it.

Jason Calacanis: 这是个难题。

Original English

It's a hard question. [laughter] I'll give you How about the last one you say?

Brad Gerstner: 我可以给你说个名字,比如 Bret Taylor 的公司 Sierra

Original English

I'd say like Sierra Brett Taylor's company. Um, you know, what do

Jason Calacanis: 他们是做什么的?

Original English

they do?

Brad Gerstner: 所以,他们基本上在打造一个“AI 智能体原生(agent native)”的 Salesforce。

Original English

So, they're building basically Salesforce agent native.

Jason Calacanis: 明白了。

Original English

Got it.

Brad Gerstner: 所以,就是销售、营销、客服智能体,原生由 AI 驱动。我再跟你讲讲下行风险和上行空间。我们在欧洲也投资了一家同一赛道叫 Parlo 的公司,我觉得非常有趣。下行风险是,如果 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 宣布“我们也要做这个”,这就突然会摧毁他们数亿美元的收入。而这些业务的上行空间在于,它们实际上已经构建了非常复杂的智能体架构层(agentic layers),然后像 Meta、Google 或是 SpaceX 这样的大公司如果跑过来说,“我们想收购你,因为我们希望加速向智能体领域进军”。

Original English

So, sales, marketing, customer service agents that are agent native. I'll give you the downside and the upside. We also own a company called Parlo and the same space in Europe that I think is really interesting. downside open AI and anthropics say we're going to do this and all of a sudden it eviscerates their hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue. The upside on on these businesses is that they actually have already built very sophisticated agentic layers and that all these guys Meta, Google, uh SpaceX come along and say we want to buy you because we want to accelerate our path into agent.

Chamath Palihapitiya: 我来分享一个名字,是我在昨天或今天被 Thomas Leant 成功说服的一家公司,叫 Revolut

你知道,我以前对这类公司的态度是,我有过一些早期的投资,我持有过 Coinbase,持有过 Robinhood,我们做了所有这些。这都没问题。但我一直对金融科技(fintech)有些忽视,而昨天在后台,Thomas 给我做了一次极其有说服力的游说,我真的心动了。我说,“好的,让我看看 Revolut 在这些二级市场上的股价是多少。”我产生了好奇心。也许我应该买一些。所以,这会是我的选择。

Original English

I I'll give you the name that I was convinced of today yesterday by um by Thomas Leant which was Revolute. You know, I had always the kind of like I had some early Jack like I owned some Coinbase, I owned some Robin Hood, we did all of that stuff. It was fine. Kind of ignored fintech and Thomas backstage gave me an incredibly we were together an incredibly compelling pitch for Revolute and and I and I actually went and I was like, "Okay, show me what the Revolute share prices in these secondary markets." I got kind of curious. Maybe I should pick up some that. So [snorts] that that would be my

Jason Calacanis: Revolut 是做什么的?跟观众解释一下。

Original English

What does Revolute do? Explain for the audience.

Chamath Palihapitiya: 这是一家银行。是一家数字银行(neo bank),拥有完全下一代的技术栈。就像 Brad 说的那种投资主题:在现代重新构建业务系统,拆解现有的行业巨头。在受监管的市场中,这有巨大的发展空间。所以你知道,他们在欧洲做得非常好,现在正进军美国,创始人看起来也绝对是个明星级别的人物。他们拥有数千万客户,14 条业务线。

Original English

It's a bank. It's a bank. And what's interesting is it's a neo bank that has a completely next generation stack. kind of what Brad said is like that theme of you rebuild it in the modern era and you unbundle the incumbent that that has a lot of legs and in a regulated market that has a ton of legs and so you know they're doing really well in Europe they're coming to the United States the founder seems to be just an absolute star tens of millions of customers 14 lines of business they're like a billion curious like that I I have

Jason Calacanis: Gavin,你最近有买什么吗?

Original English

Gavin do you have one that you've bought recently

Gavin Baker: 没有,我想说的是,我们一直在公开市场上参与并领先的两个名字是 AryaDriveets,它们都属于网络互连(networking)领域。基本上,随着数据中心变得越来越专业和复杂,你需要越来越多专门设计的芯片。这被称为推理、预填充和解码的分解(disaggregation of inference and pre-fill and decode),为了让所有这些芯片像交响乐一样协同工作,在正确的时间安排正确的芯片做正确的工作。我确实认为我们需要重新发明网络互联,而 Arya 和 Driveets 正以一种非常不同的方式解决这个问题。如果你是一家 AI 实验室的话……

Original English

no I would just say um well you know two names that um we've been involved in publicly is leading are Arya and Drivets and they're both in the networking space and basically as um data centers get more specialized and complicated you you're going to have increasingly specialized chips it's called the disagregation of inference and pre-fill and decode and to make all of these chips to work together like a symphony and have the kind of the right chip for the right job at the right time I do think we need to reinvent networking and Arya and driveets are coming at the in a very different way. And if you're an AI lab,

Chamath Palihapitiya: 你是最早看到这一点的人之一。我得给你点赞。我想你是在我看过的一个播客节目里提出了这个观点:基础设施网络互连和芯片领域即将迎来一个超级周期,而你真正走在了最前面。我现在也完全认同这个观点。真的非常棒。还有其他名字吗?

Original English

you've been one of the earliest. I'll give you credit. I think that you you you framed this on one of on a podcast that I saw, which is there is an impending super cycle in infra networking, silicon, and you've really been at the front of it. I buy into it completely now, too. Really, it's a really It's really good. It's really any names.

Gavin Baker: 欧洲的 Neura Robotics

Original English

Uh Neuroobotics in Europe.

Jason Calacanis: Neura Robotics 是公司名字?

Original English

Neuroobotics is a company name.

Gavin Baker: 对。一家由人工智能驱动的物流机器人公司。

Original English

Yes. and uh AI powered um logistics robotics.

Jason Calacanis: 我喜欢。

Original English

Love it.

Gavin Baker: 他们没有身处硅谷那种寸土寸金的核心地段。他们在德国。一家很低调的公司,投资方很厉害,收入达到了 1 亿美元,非常强悍。

Original English

Um they're not in the main strip of high value real estate in Silicon Valley. They're in Germany. Uh quiet company, big investors, 100 million revenue, kicking ass.

Jason Calacanis: 我很喜欢。好吧,你知道,我有几个正在关注的投资论点。其中一个是,随着价格的下降,Elon 正在帮助把什么东西送上太空?所以我们直接在股权表上并通过 SPV 投资了 Vast,这家公司在建造空间站,我们认为他们会赢。另一个我称之为 Uber 2.0。Brad,你和 Gurley 对此也做了很多笔记。因此我们投资了 Zipline,我们给 Zipline 投了一笔金额不大的资金。因为如果你能把配送成本从 15 美元降到 5 美元,然后最终降到 2 美元,那将极大地推动消费增长,而且这将在空中实现。这些真正的无人机曾经经历过一段艰难的起步,导致所有人都放弃了这个赛道,但现在它跑通了。Keller(Zipline CEO)告诉我这是一个非常简单的创新,那就是:无人机停留在空中,然后放下一根挂着装有你墨西哥卷饼的盒子的绳索。如果你抓住绳子拉一下,它就会自动降下来。你不需要让一个带有旋转刀片的巨型机器人在你的后院降落,那甚至可能会杀掉你的狗。

Original English

Love it. Jason, well, I you know, I I have a couple of thesis uh that I've been looking at. One is what is Elon helping put into space as the price goes down. And so we did uh direct on the cap table and SPV for vast which is building space stations and we think they're going to win. The other one is what I'll just call Uber 2.0. You know, we girly and I took a lot of notes on that, Brad, as well. And so we were able to do zipline and we we put a small ticket size into zipline as well because if you can take the delivery cost down from $15 to five and then eventually two, that's going to just drive consumption massively and it's going to happen in the air. And these actual drones had such a false start that everybody gave up on the entire sector and now it works. And it was just a very simple innovation that Keller told me, which was it's the drone stays up in the air and drops a tether with the box in your burrito. If you grab the tether and you pull it, it just comes down. You don't have to land like this giant robot in your backyard with blades spinning to kill your dog.

Gavin Baker: 我认为关于 Zipline 有个点非常重要。这家公司简直是个奇迹。它为世界做出了伟大的贡献。我的机构 Atrades 也投资了 Zipline,但 Zipline 是这样起步的——让任何自动化设备运转起来的难点在于,你需要将它投入到真实世界中,去收集真实世界的数据。这就是 AI 的工作原理。而在美国领空获得批准让物体自动飞行是非常困难的。所以 Keller 就想出了一个主意:我们要去非洲国家。我们要运送医疗物资——我们要帮助这些小村庄运送药品。他们把重点放在了妇产科医疗上。他们在一些非洲国家将孕产妇死亡率降低了 90% 到 95%。你身处一个小村庄,那里只有一名助产士,还有一个手机应用。当一个妇女开始分娩时,他们按下一个按钮,一小时后,一架 Zipline 无人机就会投下一个冷藏包裹,里面装有现代药物、血液和一切所需物品。他们坚持做了七年,这极大地改善了这些非洲国家的健康状况。而现在,这项技术来到了美国。

Original English

Well, I think there's actually a very important like on Zipline. It's an amazing It has done great things for the world. Um so my my at trades is also uh in involved in zipline but zipline started so the hard thing is to make anything autonomous work you need to get it out in to the world and gathering real world data. This is how AI works and it's hard to get approval to fly things around um autonomously in American airspace. So Keller had the idea of we're going to go to African countries and we are going to de you know if a we're going to help or deliver medicines to these small villages and they focused on maternity and they have cut the maternal mortality rate in some of these African countries by 90 to 95%. And so you're in a small village, there's a one midwife, there's an app, a woman goes into labor, they press a button, and you know, an hour later, a zipline drone drops a refrigerated package of modern medicine, blood, and everything needed. They did it for seven years and it's had a huge impact on health outcomes in these African countries and now it's come to America.

Jason Calacanis: 这真是一个不可思议的故事。我现在基本上重构了我的公司来采取杠铃策略(barbell strategy)。我错过了它的种子轮投资。当时我拒绝了他,因为我说:“我们不投资那片大陆。我们对它没有任何洞察力,我们不了解它,而且硬件太难搞了。”他还留着那封拒绝邮件。后来我一直和他保持联系,然后他说:“听着,我已经把所有问题都搞清楚了。”然后我说:“嘿,你知道的,我有一个投资组合团队。让我看看能不能纠正之前的那个错误。我能投资吗?”他说:“你是我的梦中情投。我一直都想让你加入进来,而且这非常重要。”不,不,不。我们这些年一直是朋友,我邀请他上了三次播客节目。然后他问:“你什么时候能出现在我们的股权表上?”我说:“你知道吗?我从你们这些投后期阶段的同行身上学到了很多,我想,好吧,这个我也能做。”然后现在我们就进来了。

Original English

I I this is an incredible story and I've basically now reconstructed my firm to do the barbell. I missed the seed investment. I turned him down because I was like, "We don't invest on that continent. We don't have any insight into it. We don't understand it and hardware is hard." And he has the email, whatever. And I've stayed in touch with him and he said, "Listen, I figured it out." And I said, "Hey, you know, I have the syndicate. Let me see if I can correct that mistake. May I invest?" He said, "I I you're my dream investor. I've wanted you on this whole time and it's just so important." Um, no. No. we've been friends for all this time and I've you know I have had him on the pod three times and he said when are you going to be on the cap table and I said you know what I learning from you guys specifically this late stage stuff I'm like well I can do that and here we are and

Brad Gerstner: 就此而言……

Original English

on that note

Jason Calacanis: 是的,让我们做个总结。非常感谢大家,伙计们。谢谢你,Kelly。谢谢。

Original English

yes let's wrap up yes well done guys thank you so much thank you Kelly thank you

Brad Gerstner: 谢谢。[音乐声起]

Original English

thank Thank you. [music] [music]

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

公司/组织: SpaceX, Anthropic, Forge

关键字: secondary-market venture-capital liquidity-event private-equity