注意力稀缺与数据泛滥:金融交易员面临的信息悖论
现代金融市场正经历一场空前的信息爆炸与认知承载力之间的撕裂。在刚刚过去的 2025 年,全球产生的数据总量高达约 175 泽字节(Zettabytes: 10的21次方字节),这一体量较二十年前呈现指数级飙升。过去,分析师依赖报纸、书籍或偶尔接通的互联网获取信息;而如今,除了传统渠道,专业人士还被困在浩如烟海的 PDF 研报、付费订阅、海量播客,以及社交网络 X 和 LinkedIn 永不停歇的信息流中。然而,更多的数据并不等同于更多的有效信息。现实往往是:所有市场参与者同时承受着相同的信息洪水冲刷,但人类个体的注意力带宽却是一条水平不变的固定天花板。对于以金融综合研判与信息提炼为生(Financial Synthesis)的专业人士而言,注意力与原始数据之间的鸿沟正变得越来越大。
演讲者拥有横跨交易前台与机器学习的双重视角:早年曾担任近十年的衍生品交易员(Derivative Trader: 从事期权、期货等衍生金融工具定价与交易的专业人员),随后转型深入机器学习与数据科学,曾获得全额奖学金,并在国际学习表征大会(ICLR: 顶级机器学习国际学术会议)上发表过与美国国家航空航天局(NASA)合作的系统研究成果。创立的 Moshi 旨在将这两个领域结合,打造一个全天候 7×24 小时监控市场动态、深度理解投资者核心诉求的量化分析平台。
英文原文
Hi everyone. Thank you so much for coming to my talk. I'm Annika. I'm the founder and CEO of Moshi and I'm going to be talking about a financial investors context that lives in their head and how we can use that when we're building with machines today. So I want to do a quick show of hands. How many people in this room are overwhelmed by the amount of data they have when making a decision? Okay. And how many feel like they've got less attention now today with all the amount of data? And so that's the exact paradox that financial investors have every day. So in 2025 last year, the world made about 175 zettabytes of data. That's exponential higher than what we had two decades ago. So before we were lucky if we had an internet connection, we had newspapers, books, but nowadays we have all of that plus the context that lives in PDFs, subscriptions, lots of different podcasts and also a stream of never-ending information coming on X and LinkedIn. So what does that mean for financial investors? Because more data does not equate to more information. It actually just gives everyone the same flood of information, but your attention is the flat line across everything. So for financial professionals who actually are paid on financial synthesis, what happens between the gap between attention and data, it just gets wider and wider and wider. So who am I? I've sat on both sides of the table. So I spent my career fascinated by data and I've spent my career working in it. So I was a derivative trader for nearly a decade and then I moved into data science and machine learning. So, I got a full bite scholarship to study machine learning, and I got a paper at ICLR working in machine learning systems with NASA. And now I've married those two. So, those two worlds being Moshi. Moshi is your 24/7 quant analyst, which works watching the markets 24/7 and understanding what is going on and what matters to a financial investor. Having sat on both sides, I can understand what the strengths are for both of them. And that's what I want to go into deep today.
能效鸿沟与核心优势:为什么无法用通用模型替换人脑
人类大脑是所有工程系统都在试图超越的终极机器。人脑运作的功耗仅约 20 瓦(20W: 相当于一个昏暗灯泡的能耗),却包含 860 亿个神经元,每时每刻都在形成极其深邃且未被完全破解的关联与推理。相比之下,当今构建的庞大计算系统仅为了模仿人脑智力的一小块碎片,就需要一整座发电厂来驱动。仅从推理能效的角度来看,人脑就比当今所有的机器系统高出数百万倍。这一底层物理事实决定了一个核心工程命题:在金融决策闭环中,技术与 AI 究竟应该切入哪个环节?既然人体最极致的推理引擎就坐落在两耳之间,那么机器学习的真正使命应当是彻底取代它,还是全力给它输送养分?
任何与投资者交流过的人都会发现,他们追求的终极目标完全一致:竞争优势(Edge: 在市场中持续战胜对手的超额能力)。在交易实践中,这种优势具体体现为三件事:第一,比市场上任何其他人更早知道正在发生什么;第二,洞悉自己的认知盲区,揭示事件的二阶与三阶衍生效应;第三,拥有坚定不移的交易信念感(Conviction: 对判断深度确信从而敢于重仓的能力),以便在看好的交易机会上放大仓位(Size up)。当全行业面对同质化的模型与公开架构时,真正的壁垒绝不是一个 Prompt、一个技能文件(Skills file)、一堆 MCP 接口或者基础底模。真正的竞争优势存在于交易员大脑中无法直接下载的隐性认知,那是与顶尖大师并肩实战数十年积累下的模式直觉。更为严峻的是,当这些关键人才跳槽或退休时,这些专有认知资产(IP)也会随之流失。
英文原文
So, I want to talk about the machine that everyone is trying to beat. So, a human brain, to give you context, runs on about 20 W, which is the power of a dim light bulb. Uh so, it's 86 billion neurons in the brain, and we're it's making connections that we still can't understand. And that is on the power of a light bulb. And the systems that we are trying to imitate, which we're trying to imitate just a sliver of that power, they need a whole power plant to to run. So, just in terms of efficiency, the human brain is something like multiple millions multiple times more powerful than whatever systems that we're trying to uh whatever we're trying to build. And so, that actually what that actually means is it it's important for where you're trying to point that technology. So, at which point in the decision-making uh cycle do you point the technology, which is AI, which we're what we're building? Because if the most efficient reasoning engine sits between your two ears, then and it's running on a 20 W light bulb, where does machine learning actually sit in that? And so, do you try and replace it, which is what AI is trying to what I feel that AI is trying to do every day, or do you actually feed it? So, let's take a few steps back to understand how a trader's brain or a financial investor actually thinks. So, what do people actually want? Any investor you speak to is looking for the same thing, edge. What is edge? So, edge is in practice just three things. I want to know what's going on before anyone else is. I want to know my blind spots. So, tell me the second and third order derivatives of what's happening. And also, I want to have the conviction on what I'm doing so that I can size up on a trade that I believe in. All those three together give you edge. So, now here's the problem. If you're building in this space and everyone has access to the same models, and they have access to the same systems, then what is edge, right? Is it a skills file? Is it a whole bunch of MCP connectors? Is it just a better prompt? Is it a better model? Every Everyone has access to all of that. So, if everyone has access to all of these things, then what is edge? So, the edge is actually what you can't download. It what It's what sits in an investor's head. And how do they get that? It's decades of working and learning from some of the best traders in the industry and sitting next to them. And here's the concerning part. What happens when you have an investor and everything lives in their head when they move firms or they retire? That IP leaves with them.
从端到端幻象到生产级工程:决策链条中的责任不可替代性
在传统的金融机构体系中,构建一个决策支持系统需要庞大的复合团队:量化分析师(Quant)、数据科学家、数据工程师和交易员紧密协同。这套由高成本、高专业素养人才组成的完整技术栈,在当前被各种 AI 工具宣传为“只需一个人调用几个 API 即可轻易替代”。然而,整个行业刻意回避了原型与现实之间的巨大鸿沟:在周末草草搭建一个看板 Demo 固然轻松,但一旦要推向生产环境并共享给第二个人使用,就必须立刻面对安全性、数据库选型、存储架构、系统高可用性以及持续消耗的 API 调用额度(Credits: 运行大语言模型推理所需的算力成本)。行业商业模式已经从传统的工具订阅软件转向每一次 API 调用的按量计费。
在金融工具的本质分类上,市场上存在两类工具:一种是由用户主动“拉取”(Pull)数据的交互型工具,另一种则是主动向用户“推送”(Push)数据的情报型工具。当你采用对话框去 Prompt 一个模型时,其实是在把自己的认知作为上下文单向喂给模型;你是在和一个时间被冰冻、甚至把周三下午三点误当成凌晨两点的静态模型争论,这根本无法与真实人类专家的推理相提并论。而另一类向你推送数据的工具,本质上则是被海量数据淹没的数据工程问题。
更为深层的行业危机在于,金融业最关键的传承机制正在悄无声息地瓦解。过去初入行者坐在资深交易员身边,耳听六路、眼观八方,靠长年累月的实战耳濡目染吸收认知上下文(Consistency)。如果各机构都在鼓吹由单个员工搭配 AI 构建“一人团队”(One-person pods),下一代交易员的认知资产将面临断层。更重要的是,金融决策的最终责任机制(Accountability)绝不可能托付给全自动的智能体集群(Agent)。金融交易的对手方是真实的客户、实物商品(如现货大宗散货)或具体企业;一旦发生重大事故,必须由具体的自然人站出来承担责任并解释逻辑。一个 Agent 泄露了 API 密钥或误判了头寸,只会轻描淡写地回答“抱歉,请重置密钥”;在真实金融世界中,智能体自纠自洽的微小误差会在链条末端被指数级放大,引发毁灭性灾难。
英文原文
So, I think before we even start to think about how AI fits in into all of this, we have to actually understand what a financial investor is doing. They're keeping up with the markets, which are now moving 24/7. They're trying to understand what is going on and how they relate to each other. So, those billions of different data connections. They're trying to compare and understand the historical significance of the event happening right now. What happened in the past, why it happened, and what the market did when it happened. And trying to piece all of that together, and then run it on the models that they have. And then the last part is actually make a decision. So, there's a lot that takes place before actually making a financial decision. So, I just want to keep the last bit with you, which is the decision-making. So, let's take think about what AI actually changed. So, before, if you worked in finance, you'd have a team of quants, data scientists, data engineers, traders, who are all working together to build this decision-making engine. So, it's a whole stack of very expensive and very qualified people. However, with AI, these tools made you believe that you actually don't need any of these people. What you need is one person, a few API calls, and you've replaced that whole stack of people. But, here's the gap that no one actually talks about. Once you spent your weekend building a dashboard, the moment you actually want to productionize that and share it with one more person, you now have to think about security, a database, you have to think about storage, reliability, and the biggest thing in all is credits. How do you actually run the systems? And so, what we've seen is pricing has changed. People are no longer pricing by tools, but they're pricing for every API call. So, now if everyone is building the same tools, what actually makes it different? And so, there's two types of tools in finance. One is the tools that you pull data from, and one the tools you push data to. And so, if you're prompting a model, you are the context. You're explaining to it, you're arguing with a model that's frozen in time, which is telling you, "Hey, go to bed at 2:00 a.m. It's late now." when actually it's 3:00 p.m. on a Wednesday. And all of that, if you think about comparing it to reasoning with a human, it's absolutely no comparison. And then you've got the type of tool which pushes data to you. And that's the tool where it's flooding you with information, and that's a data engineering problem. So, when you have these two tools, and you've got different problems that you're solving for, one is context, and then the other one is the amount of data. You've got to think about what the traders actually using, and what what they think about in each of these different tools. And the one thing that it we're seeing is quietly breaking is that in finance, when you join a bank or you join a fund, you sit next to a trader or a team and you absorb everything that's going on. And you learn from them and you just listen to everything. You have one ear on the desk and one ear around everything else that's going on. And it's consistency that pays off. And if everyone is going to be running their own teams as one-person pods, then what happens to that future generation of context that's coming in? And that's the real cost that right now people are not pricing in. And so in finance, you can't just hand the decision-making loop to a team of agents. Why? Because the other side of the trade is a client. If it's in a commodity trade, it's a cargo, a physical cargo. If it's a company, it's a team of people. And so what happens in finance when something goes wrong is you need a human to go and stand up and say, "I made the decision for this reason." If an agent leaks your API key, all it says is, "Oops, I'm sorry. I shouldn't have done that. Please rotate it." And you can't have that in finance because um like an agent is just self-correcting and the one small error is just exponentially getting bigger.
人机分工重构:以确定性量化多智能体基础设施喂养人类直觉
面对人脑卓越的能效与责任属性,工程解法不应是将人类排挤出决策闭环,而应是彻底翻转逻辑:用机器的高效算力反哺人脑。在达成一笔交易前,投资者需要经历漫长繁重的信息洗炼——海量阅读、搜集情报、多源交叉验证以及持续盯盘。当市场上充斥着多方矛盾的信息时,投资者最大的痛点在于探寻真相:不同来源的数据分歧到底在哪里?信息的置信度有多高?如果将整个链路严格切分为“繁重杂活”(Grind)与“商业裁决”(Judgment)两个模块,机器在数据清洗、结构化采集与实时监测等机械性繁工上表现惊人,而人类则擅长最终的综合决策。
基于这一理念,Moshi 被构建为一个专门服务于机构级交易员的全天候 24/7 量化分析基础设施。系统在后台运行一个由 6 个不同智能体构成的协作团队,采用确定性方式(Deterministic manner: 行为可预测、可审计、拒绝不可控随机波动的工程架构)设计,全天候吞吐远超人类负荷的宏观与微观数据,并融合机构投资者私有的 PDF、邮件与各类订阅报告。目前 Moshi 已处理超过 24 亿个数据点;在阅读一句话的短短 4 秒钟内,系统就能吸收 300 条新信息。但如果无法验证信息源的可靠性、评判分析师观点的权重,再多上下文也毫无价值。因此,系统通过严格测量大模型幻觉(Hallucination: 模型生成看似合理但脱离事实内容的现象)、对每一项主张进行证据溯源(Traceability),并完整公开推导决策背后的基础假设。机构投资者不仅需要结论,更需要完整的推理链条;最终的决策权依然牢牢保留在人类手中。
这一架构带来的不是让交易员整天对着大语言模型争吵“美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议究竟是今天还是明天”这种低效浪费,而是为其提供至多 35% 的认知效率释放,使交易员获得充裕的心智带宽去沉淀交易信念。Moshi 的本质并不是一个取代人类的模型,而是“打了肾上腺素的你”(You on steroids)——保持人类专家的敏锐直觉,同时由全量异构数据实时供养。它将单点碎片化的周末原型升级为机构级金融基础设施,帮助人类洞悉盲区、进行 360 度全景下钻,并在面临最终问责时能够清晰陈述决策归因。关于“机器究竟能在多大程度上捕获存在于人脑中的真正优势”,全行业尚未给出最终答案,而探索这一边界的过程本身,正孕育着一种重塑金融认知范式的新可能。
英文原文
So, this is the question that I've been needing to, which is if the brain is the most powerful tool we have, why are we spending everything trying to push it out of the loop? Why don't we flip that and instead of replacing it, why don't we just feed it? And so if you think about what's in a trader's head, they've got everything leading up to the uh to the trade itself. But before that, there's a whole bunch of other work that takes place. They're reading, they're gathering information, they're cross-checking, uh they're watching the market. Because we have so much information now, the biggest question people have is what is the truth? What is what is actually the different sources saying? What is the divergence of information? How can I trust what is out there? And once I've done all of that, then I've actually got the decision. So, if we split it into two different parts, we understand that some of it, well, is all the grind, the reading, the gathering, the data cleaning, and some of it is judgment, which is the decision. And machines are incredible at the grind. They're incredible at cleaning data. They're incredible at gathering data. And then the human is incredible at the decision making. So, why not just split those into two separate parts? And this is what brings us to Moshi, which is what we've built. It's a 24/7 quant analyst for institutional traders. And what that means is we are running a team of six different agents, which are built in a deterministic manner, which are watching the market 24/7, more data than is humanly possible, plus the investors' data, which lives in PDFs, emails, different subscriptions, understanding all of that in a way that is making the the trader a better decision maker. So, Moshi has read 2.4 billion data points. And in the 4 seconds it took you to read that sentence, Moshi has learned 300 new things. And in those 300 new things that it's learned, that's new context for the model. The issue with that is new context is worthless if you don't actually know, is it trustworthy? Where does it come from? Do I even value this analyst's opinion? Because in finance, even if it's a really confident answer, if it's wrong, then it's worth nothing. And so, what do we do? We measure it. We measure the hallucination, we measure every claim, we see how it's traceable, and we also give the user the assumptions that we've had and how we've led to that decision. Because if an investor asks you about your opinion, they don't just want to know what you think, they want to know how you came to that reasoning. And so, what we do is we leave the decision-making with the human because we believe that that is what humans do best. There's no machine more powerful than the brain. But everything else that you need to run is what we give you. So, we believe that every single firm is running these desks of quants, of data engineers, of data scientists, and that's what we give you. Because it's impossible to run that per human. It's impossible to run your own quant and data science team, and it also doesn't make sense. Economics-wise, it just is too much to run per person. And so, that's what we do. We run an institutional-grade analyst how it works in bigger institutions to actually give you that conviction to make better trades. So, what does that actually buy you? It buys you more efficiency, up to 35% more, so that you can actually spend time to have the headspace to have more conviction on the trades that you want to do. So, if you speak to a lot of traders, they'll say to you, "Hey, I don't want to speak to anyone all day. I just want to trade." So, why are you giving these people just LLMs to talk to and to debate, "Hey, is FOMC today or is it tomorrow?" And then the LLM is saying it's tomorrow when it's today. That's just a complete waste of time. And so, that's the opposite of what investors want. They want something that can give them the power to reason more and use their brain. So, Moshi isn't you. Moshi isn't a model. It's It is you on steroids, which is the same instinct but fed by all the data that lives in different parts. So, that you can actually spend your time decision-making instead of debating when FOMC is. In In terms of the scale, we watch over 2.4 billion data points, and it's growing every millisecond. And so, that's decades of derivatives trading knowledge around the clock, which is what it No No one person can build. And then it's the pushing of the data. So, when you're pulling data from an LLM, you are giving it the context on an old model. When you are getting pushed new data, it's forcing your brain to think about new things and make connections in ways that you didn't initially think about. So, that means that you're then thinking about these blind spots which you've been told about, which you are then trying to understand, okay, well, I wouldn't have caught this, so what am I going to do with this new information? And then it's the deep dive, the ability to deep dive into one thing with a 360° view of information that you wouldn't have had before. And so we do that with the big data and all of the specific data. And so, how does it differ from a tool that you're building on the weekend when a tool that you need to build 24/7 on every market on big data, which is running in a way that you can understand the context, which is reliable and trustworthy, that becomes infrastructure. It's no longer a weekend tool because you need it to be something that other people can trust and you can trace back because that's what you have with a human, which is someone being able to stand up and say, "Hey, I made this decision because of XYZ." Not calling an agent who's never who's just going to apologize to you. So, the one question that I think we haven't answered yet, which is if real edge lives in a human brain, how much of a machine can it actually how much can a machine actually capture? And I don't think we have an answer to that yet, um and I think whoever answers it is not building a product, they're building a new way of thinking in finance, and that's what we're trying to explore. So, we've been building very quietly with uh a few of the biggest players in the trading industry in finance, and so this is the first time we're opening up to talk to the public uh because we believe that every single person should have access to institutional grade analysis without having to run their own data science or quant team. Um so, if that's interesting to you, come talk to me. I love talking about everything to do with data and finance and financial engineering. Um and yeah, before you trade, we want people to talk to Moshi. Thank you.