英伟达盈利飙升与AI泡沫担忧
来自《纽约时报》的头条新闻,我是特蕾西·芒福德(Tracy Mumford)。 今天是11月20日星期四,以下是我们今天报道的内容。
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From the New York Times, it's the headlines. I'm Tracy Mumford. Today's Thursday, November 20th. Here's what we're covering.
芯片巨头英伟达(Nvidia: 一家全球领先的图形处理器和人工智能芯片制造商),作为AI(Artificial Intelligence: 模拟人类智能的机器系统)热潮的象征,昨天公布了其季度收益,并远超华尔街(Wall Street: 美国金融界的代名词)的预期。
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The chip giant Nvidia, which has become the symbol of the AI boom, announced its quarterly earnings yesterday and eclipsed Wall Street's expectations.
该公司表示,其利润达到近320亿美元,比去年同期增长65%,比前年更是增长了200%以上。
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It said its profits hit almost $32 billion, up 65% from a year earlier and over 200% from the year before that.
英伟达几乎完全垄断了用于AI项目的芯片市场,这帮助它打破了多项记录,包括几周前成为有史以来第一家市值达到5万亿美元的上市公司。
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Nvidia's near total lock on the market for chips used in AI projects has helped it smash records, including becoming the first publicly traded company to ever be worth $5 trillion, a milestone it hit a few weeks ago.
然而,人们对这种发展轨迹能否持续以及能持续多久存在疑问。
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There are questions though about if this trajectory can last and for how long.
本质上,AI是否是一个泡沫?
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Essentially, is AI a bubble?
如果所有投入到数据中心和芯片采购等AI基础设施的资金,未能像公司承诺的那样带来革命性成果,那会发生什么?
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What happens if all the money pouring into AI infrastructure like data centers and chip purchases doesn't pay off with the revolutionary results companies are promising?
亚马逊的杰夫·贝佐斯(Jeff Bezos)、OpenAI的萨姆·奥特曼(Sam Altman)以及摩根大通的杰米·戴蒙(Jaime Dimon)等知名人士都表示,他们认为这种狂热可能正在接近一次修正。
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Big names like Jeff Bezos of Amazon, Sam Alman of OpenAI, and Jaime Diamond of JP Morgan have all said they think the frenzy could be approaching a correction.
人们担心,如果这些大型科技公司步履蹒跚,甚至一蹶不振,考虑到对它们的巨大依赖,它们可能会拖垮整个经济。
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And there are fears that if those big tech companies stumble or even take a plunge, they could take the economy with them given how much is riding on them.
例如,据一项估计,英伟达目前占整个标普500指数(S&P 500: 衡量美国500家大型上市公司股票表现的指数)近10%的市值。
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Nvidia, for example, by one estimate, now makes up nearly 10% of the value of the entire S&P 500.
美国经济与劳动力市场
与此同时,英伟达的成功也成为了当前股市另一现实的典型例证:它的分裂程度。
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Meanwhile, Nvidia's success has become a prime example of another reality of the current stock market, how divided it is.
以英伟达为首的科技股一直在上涨,而几家依赖消费者支出的公司却陷入困境。
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Tech stocks with Nvidia in the lead have been heading up while several companies that rely on consumer spending have slumped.
塔吉特(Target)公司昨天表示,今年的假日销售将放缓,政府停摆和食品券暂停等因素已对其业务造成影响。
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Target said yesterday that holiday sales would be slower this year and that factors like the government shutdown and the pause in food stamps had weighed on its business.
今天,劳工部将发布9月份的就业数据。
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And today the labor department's going to release jobs data for September.
这些数据因政府停摆而延迟公布,它将提供劳动力市场在压力下的最新快照。
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The numbers were delayed by the shutdown and it'll give the latest snapshot of a labor market under stress.
雇主们已经表示,他们不会全力投入假日季节性招聘。
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Already employers are signaling they're not going allin on seasonal hiring for the holidays.
例如,连锁超市克罗格(Kroger)表示,将减少临时工的招聘。
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The grocery store chain Kroger, for example, said it will bring on fewer temporary workers.
一家经济研究公司估计,季节性招聘可能会降至十年来的最低水平。
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One economic research firm estimates that seasonal hiring could slip to the lowest level in a decade.
华盛顿政坛动态
现在,来自华盛顿的三项最新消息。
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Now, three updates out of Washington.
昨天,联邦法院举行了一场听证会,涉及司法部(Justice Department: 负责美国联邦法律执行的行政部门)对詹姆斯·科米(James Comey)的起诉,这位前联邦调查局(FBI: Federal Bureau of Investigation: 美国主要的联邦执法机构)局长与特朗普总统长期不和。
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In federal court yesterday, there was a hearing about the Justice Department's prosecution of James Comey, the former FBI director who has a long history of clashing with President Trump.
我的同事艾伦·福耶(Alan Foyer)当时在法院。
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My colleague Alan Foyer was at the courthouse.
他表示那是一场非同寻常的景象,而且极其尴尬。
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He said it was an extraordinary spectacle and excruciatingly awkward.
艾伦·福耶 (Alan Foyer): 理论上,这次听证会是为了弄清楚对科米的起诉是否是特朗普总统报复性行为。但当法官严厉盘问负责此案的检察官时,事情就有点失控了。
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>> In theory, the hearing was to sort of figure out whether or not the prosecution of Comey was an act of vindictive retribution by President Trump. But it kind of went off the rails when the judge really put the prosecutors handling it through the ringer.
特朗普的前私人律师林赛·哈利根(Lindsay Hallagan)一直在主导对科米的案件,科米被指控向国会撒谎。
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Lindsay Hallagan, Trump's former personal lawyer, has been leading the case against Comey, who's been charged with lying to Congress.
在多位其他检察官拒绝接手此案后,特朗普亲自挑选她来监督此案。
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Trump handpicked her to oversee the case after multiple other prosecutors refused to touch it.
艾伦说,法官盘问了哈利根,她承认与通常的做法不同,她从未真正向整个大陪审团(Grand jury: 在正式起诉前决定是否有足够证据的陪审团)展示起诉书的最终版本,就由四人签署了。
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Allen says the judge grilled Haligan, who admitted that unlike how things are normally done, she never actually showed the final version of the indictment to the full grand jury before the four person signed off on it.
艾伦·福耶 (Alan Foyer): 周三的听证会真正展示了这次起诉从一开始就多么草率,以及林赛·哈利根处理此案的方式,这是她参与的第一起刑事案件。这确实显示了她经验的不足,以及这如何影响了案件的进展。
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>> What the hearing on Wednesday really showed was just sort of how slap dash this prosecution has been from its inception, the way that it's been handled by Lindseay Halligan, who this is her the first criminal case she has ever taken part in. and it really shows her lack of experience and the way that that has affected how the case has moved forward.
科米的律师要求彻底撤销此案。
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Comey's lawyer is asking for the case to be thrown out altogether.
法官昨天没有立即做出裁决,但似乎倾向于撤销。
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The judge didn't immediately issue a decision yesterday, but appeared to be leaning in that direction.
沙特投资承诺与资金困境
此外,两国之间的伙伴关系是全世界最重要的关系之一,王储和我将共同努力。
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Also, the partnership between our two nations is among the most consequential in the entire world and together the crown prince and I
昨天在美沙投资会议上,特朗普总统结束了沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼(Muhammad bin Salman)的高调访问。
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at a US Saudi investment conference yesterday, President Trump capped off a high-profile visit by the Saudi crown prince Muhammad bin Salman.
在与特朗普会晤期间,本·萨勒曼表示,他的王国将在美国投资高达1万亿美元。
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During his meetings with Trump, bin Salman said that his kingdom would invest up to $1 trillion in the US.
但《纽约时报》了解到,根据对10多位了解其运作情况的人士(包括董事会成员)的采访,沙特公共投资基金(Public Investment Fund: 沙特阿拉伯的主权财富基金),本应用于此类承诺的资金,实际上现金流正在告急。
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But the Times has learned that the Saudi public investment fund, which would be used for that kind of commitment, is actually running low on cash, according to interviews with more than 10 people briefed on its operations, including board members.
这在很大程度上是因为王储将该国大量的石油财富花在了失败的项目上。
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That's in large part because the prince has spent vast amounts of the country's oil wealth on failing projects.
例如,有一家只有一家店的咖啡连锁店,一家只有一艘船的邮轮公司,以及红海沿岸一系列大多空置的豪华度假村。
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For example, there's been a coffee shop chain that only has one shop, a cruise line with only one ship, and a string of luxury resorts on the Red Sea that are mostly empty.
幕后,该基金的代表已开始告诉全球投资者,在可预见的未来,它基本上无法再分配任何资金。
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Behind the scenes, representatives of the fund have begun telling global investors that it's basically unable to allocate any more money for the foreseeable future.
该基金的一位发言人为其现状辩护,告诉《纽约时报》:“我们的投资将以世代而非季度来衡量。”
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A spokesman for the fund defended its status, telling the Times, quote, "Our investments will be judged over generations, not quarters."
爱泼斯坦文件与拉里·萨默斯的风波
昨晚深夜,特朗普总统表示他签署了要求司法部公布爱泼斯坦文件(Epstein files: 关于已故金融家杰弗里·爱泼斯坦性交易网络的法律文件)的法案。
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And late last night, President Trump said that he signed the bill calling for the Justice Department to release the Epstein files.
他们有30天的时间来执行。
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They have 30 days to follow through.
与此同时,在一些已经公开的文件中提到的一位最著名人物——拉里·萨默斯(Larry Summers)——正面临日益严重的后果。
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In the meantime, there's been growing fallout for one of the most prominent people mentioned in some of the files that have already been made public, Larry Summers.
萨默斯是一位经济学家,也是前哈佛大学(Harvard: 一所位于美国马萨诸塞州剑桥市的私立研究型大学)校长。
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Summers is an economist and the former president of Harvard.
此前,他曾对与爱泼斯坦(Epstein)的长期联系表示遗憾,但上周公布的两人之间的电子邮件显示,即使在爱泼斯坦因与未成年人发生性犯罪服刑后,他们仍然保持着密切关系。
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Previously, he's expressed regret for his longtime connections to Epstein, but emails between the two men that were released last week showed that they had a close relationship even after Epstein had served jail time for sex crimes with minors.
除了其他话题,两人还谈论了萨默斯感兴趣的一位女性,爱泼斯坦称自己是萨默斯的“僚机”。
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Among other topics, the two talked about a woman that Summers was romantically interested in, and Epstein described himself as Summers' wingman.
自这些电子邮件曝光以来,萨默斯已辞去OpenAI(OpenAI: 一家致力于开发和推广友好人工智能的美国研究机构)董事会职务,并暂停了在哈佛大学的教职,哈佛大学目前正在对他进行调查,《纽约时报》也表示,他作为评论版撰稿人的合同将不会续签。
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Since those emails came out, Summers has resigned from his position on the board of OpenAI, stepped back from his teaching job at Harvard, which is now investigating him, and the Times has said that his contract as a contributing writer for the opinion section will not be renewed.
健康警报:蜱虫叮咬引发的红肉过敏
一年多前,一位来自新泽西州、为捷蓝航空(JetBlue)担任飞行员的47岁男子去参加了一场夏季烧烤。
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More than a year ago, a 47-year-old man from New Jersey who worked as a pilot for JetBlue went to a summer barbecue.
他吃了一个汉堡,回家后割了草坪,然后开始感到不适,呕吐。
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He ate a hamburger. He went home. He mowed the lawn. He started to not feel well. He threw up.
很快,他失去了知觉,当晚晚些时候去世了。
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Soon, he was unconscious. And later that night, he died.
尸检报告称其为“突发不明原因死亡”。
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The autopsy called it a sudden unexplained death.
现在,一个医生团队认为他们可能找到了答案。
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Now, a team of doctors think they may have an answer.
他们刚刚在一家医学期刊上发表了他们的发现,将他的死亡与一个日益增长的健康问题联系起来,这是一种人们在被蜱虫叮咬后可能产生的红肉过敏症。
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They just published their findings in a medical journal that links his death to a growing health issue, an allergy to red meat that people can develop after a tick bite.
它被称为阿尔法-半乳糖综合征(Alpha-Gal syndrome: 一种由蜱虫叮咬引起的对红肉过敏的疾病)。
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It's called Alpha Gal syndrome.
它能使人病得很重,即使只是烧烤的烟雾也可能引发症状。
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It can make people violently ill. Even just the smoke from a cookout could trigger symptoms.
调查这名飞行员案件的医生认为,他的案例可能是首例与此相关的死亡。
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The doctors who looked into the pilot's case believe his could be the first death linked to it.
该综合征的诊断病例一直在增加。
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Diagnoses of the syndrome have been on the rise.
疾控中心(CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: 美国疾病控制与预防中心)估计,自2010年以来,约有10万到45万人可能患上了这种过敏症。
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The CDC has estimated that somewhere between a 100,000 and 450,000 people may have developed the allergy since 2010.
例如,在玛莎葡萄园岛(Martha's Vineyard),出现了如此多的病例,以至于一些餐馆菜单现在甚至会标明哪些菜肴是阿尔法-半乳糖综合征安全的。
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On Martha's Vineyard, for example, so many cases have popped up, some restaurant menus now even flag what dishes are Alpha Gal safe.
由于许多人可能不知道自己患有这种疾病,健康专家告诉《纽约时报》,如果人们在食用红肉后感到不适,就应该进行检测。
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Since many people may be unaware that they have the condition, health experts told the Times that people should get tested if they find themselves feeling sick after consuming red meat.
他们还敦促蜱虫常见地区的医生考虑,因呕吐而就诊的患者可能是过敏性休克,而不仅仅是胃病。
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They also urged doctors in areas where ticks are common to consider that patients coming in because of vomiting could be an anaphylactic shock, not just facing a stomach bug.
东南亚诈骗电话与国际打击行动
最后,你的电脑现在有非常严重的病毒。
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And finally, I'm calling about the very serious virus on your computer right now.
你的手机现在亮起,显示一个未知号码的来电。
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Your phone lighting up with a call from an unknown number right now.
时间紧迫。
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The time is of the essence.
也许是有人说你被黑客攻击了,或者告诉你你的银行出了问题,他们只需要你的账号就能解决。
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Maybe from someone saying you've been hacked or telling you there's a problem at your bank and all they need is your account number to fix it.
先生,非常重要,请您尽快跟我走。
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Sir, very important. You walk with me very quickly.
这种事情已经成为日常现实。
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This kind of thing has just become a daily reality.
这些电话当然是诈骗,《纽约时报》一直在调查最近对许多诈骗电话源头——东南亚城市和城镇——的打击行动。
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The calls, of course, are scams and the Times has been looking into a recent crackdown on where many of them originate in cities and towns in Southeast Asia. there.
犯罪团伙控制着从外面看起来像公寓或办公室的建筑群,但里面实际上挤满了接电话的人。
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Criminal gangs control compounds that look like condos or offices from the outside, but are actually filled with people working the phones.
例如,中国黑帮已将数万人偷运到缅甸,在这些设施中工作。
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Chinese gangsters, for example, have smuggled tens of thousands of people into Myanmar to work in these facilities.
当局表示,其中许多人被强行扣留,并可能面临身体虐待。
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Authorities say many of them are held against their will and can face physical abuse.
有些人来自邻近国家,但也有人来自远至巴西或东欧的地方。
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Some are from nearby countries, but others come from as far away as Brazil or Eastern Europe.
现在,美国已与其他一些国家合作,致力于关闭这些中心。
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Now, the US has joined with a number of other countries working to shut down the centers.
仅今年一年,泰国、缅甸和中国的官员就进行了突袭,从一些建筑群中解救人员,数百人被送回自己的国家。
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This year, alone, officials from Thailand, Myanmar, and China carried out raids to rescue people from some compounds, and hundreds were flown back to their home countries.
美国当局最近从一名他们认为是帮助运营这些骗局的男子手中,查获了数十亿美元的加密货币(Cryptocurrency: 一种使用密码学原理来确保交易安全及控制单位创建的数字或虚拟货币)。
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American authorities recently seized billions in cryptocurrency from a man they said was helping to run some of the schemes.
泰国政府甚至试图通过切断电力来打击一个诈骗热点。
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And the Thai government even tried to fight back against one of the scam hotspots by just cutting off the electricity.
尽管付出了这些努力,一位有组织犯罪专家告诉《纽约时报》:“所有这些可能仍然无法对诈骗者的利润造成丝毫影响。这基本上是一场打地鼠游戏。”
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Despite those efforts, one expert in organized crime told the Times, "All of that will still probably not even make a dent in the scammer's profits. It's basically a game of whack-a-ole."
至于如何保护自己,一位欺诈专家告诉《纽约时报》:“只要听听他们要求什么。如果任何人向你索要预付礼品卡、通过ATM机购买比特币、金条、现金、Venmo、Cash App、Zelle(移动支付应用)或社会安全号码(Social Security numbers: 美国公民的身份识别号码)或医疗保险(Medicare: 美国联邦政府为老年人和符合条件的残疾人提供的健康保险计划)信息,请立即停止。”
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As for what you can do to protect yourself when your phone rings, one fraud expert told the Times, quote, "Just listen to what they're asking for. If anyone is asking you for prepaid gift cards, Bitcoin via ATM machines, gold bars, cash, Venmo, Cash App, zel or social security numbers or Medicare information. Stop.
以上是今天《The Daily》的头条新闻。
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Those are the headlines today on the daily.
更多关于AI泡沫的担忧,你可以在《纽约时报》应用程序或任何你收听播客的地方收听。
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More on the concerns about an AI bubble. You can listen to that in the New York Times app or wherever you get your podcasts.
我是特蕾西·芒福德,我们明天将带来最新消息和周五新闻问答。
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I'm Tracy Mumford. We'll be back tomorrow with the latest and the Friday news quiz.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
人物: Tracy Mumford, Jeff Bezos, Sam Altman, James Comey, Donald Trump, Muhammad bin Salman, Larry Summers, Jeffrey Epstein
公司/组织: Nvidia, Amazon, OpenAI, JPMorgan, Target, Kroger, Justice Department, FBI, Harvard, JetBlue, CDC, New York Times
产品/模型: S&P 500, Venmo, Cash App
媒体/书籍: The New York Times, The Daily