Peter Harrison:施罗德200年基业长青的秘诀、资管行业巨变与AI未来 Norges Bank Investment Management 2024-11-01

施罗德的基业长青之道

今天我们非常荣幸邀请到Peter Harrison来到节目中,Peter是施罗德(Schroders: 欧洲最大的资产管理公司之一)的首席执行官。

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Today we have the great pleasure of having Peter Harrison on the show. Peter is the CEO of Schroders, one of the biggest asset managers in Europe.

令人惊叹的是,施罗德已经营了大约200年。

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And amazingly, Schroders has been in business for nearly, or for roughly 200 years.

Peter,很高兴您能来这里。

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Peter, great to have you here.

非常荣幸。

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Thank you, great pleasure.

在一百万家公司中,只有45家能存在100年,而你们已经做到了200年,秘诀是什么?

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Only 45 out of 1 million companies exist for 100 years, and you've been doing it for 200 years. Well, what's the trick?

我认为关键在于坚定的所有权。

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So I think the key is committed ownership.

我们有一个家族支持,他们对公司的发展方向持有20年的长远眼光。

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We've got a family backing who takes a 20-year view of where we need to go.

正因为如此,公司得以不断变化和发展,我们在这段时间里涉足了金融领域的许多不同业务。

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And because of that, the business has changed and evolved, and we've been in lots of different businesses in the finance sector throughout that time.

但我们一直在持续变革,我认为这只有在拥有坚定且长期的所有权结构时才有可能实现,这种结构允许这种变革的发生。

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But we've continued to change, and I think that's only possible if you've got a committed long-term ownership structure which allows that change.

投资管理行业的重大变革

回顾过去十年,您在投资管理领域看到了哪些最大的变化?

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If we do the last 10 years, what are the biggest changes you've seen in Investment Management?

变化巨大。

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Huge, yeah.

被动管理(passive management: 指投资于指数基金等,而非主动选股)的巨大增长,以及向私募市场(privates: 包括私募股权、私募债等非公开交易市场)的巨大转变。

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So massive growth of passive management, huge growth towards privates.

费用大幅下降。

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Um, a collapse in fees.

对听众来说,私募市场就像私募股权,被动管理就像指数基金。

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So just to for the for the listeners, uh, private is like private equity, passive is index funds.

没错,还有私募债。

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Absolutely, and and and private debt.

世界正在从上市公司转向私营公司。

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The world the world is moving away from public companies towards private companies.

治理方面也发生了一场革命,气候议程备受关注,费用大幅下降。

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Um, a a revolution in governance, huge agenda on climate, um, collapse in fees.

整个行业正在经历一场重大的颠覆。

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So wholesale, the industry is going through a major disruption.

英美资本市场与英国脱欧的影响

为什么美国人做得更好?是美国人工作更努力,还是他们更聪明?

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Why are the Americans doing better? Are the Americans working harder? Are they clever? What is it?

不,他们没有更努力,也没有更聪明,但他们确实拥有一些固有的规模优势。

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No, no, they're not, they're not working harder, they're not clever, but they do have some innate advantages of of scale to start with.

他们有更多的合伙制结构,我认为这在资产管理业务中是非常好的结构,因为你与公司内部的人分享100%的利润,而不是一部分。

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They had more partnership type structures which I think is is is is a very good structure in an asset management business, um, because you're sharing 100% of the pie with with people in the business rather than a portion of the pie.

而且我们也看到了私募市场增长的巨大变化,在私募市场中,规模越大,护城河就越大。

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And I think we've also seen this very big change of the growth of privates and and in private markets the big bigger you are the bigger the mod.

英国资本市场的衰落在此扮演了什么角色?

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How does the kind of the decline of the UK Capital Market play in here?

如果你回溯15年,英国拥有世界上最大的国内储蓄池之一。

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So if you go back, go back 15 years, the UK has one of the largest pools of domestic savings in the world, yeah.

我们通过监管使其不复存在,它基本上购买了政府债券,停止承担风险。

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And we regulated that out of existence, so it basically bought government bonds and and stopped taking risk.

我们将消费者保护置于核心地位,这大大缩小了英国作为股票市场的规模,在过去15年中出现了巨大的资金外流。

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And we put consumer protection at the center, and that shrunk the UK as as an equity Market considerably, saw huge outflows over the last 15 years.

然后我们引入了公司治理准则(corporate governance code: 规范公司管理层与股东关系的规则),它认为股东与公司之间的冲突是好事。

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And then we put in a corporate governance codee which said conflict between shareholders and companies is a good thing.

每个排行榜都显示,你投票反对管理层的次数越多,表现就越好,这两件事对上市和蓬勃发展的国内资本市场都是不利的。

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And everything, every league table was the more times you vote against management the better, and those two things were were unhelpful for listings, they were unhelpful for thriving domestic Capital.

这些现在正在改变,人们正在回归更多的风险承担,回归更具建设性的环境。

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Those are now changing, and people are are going back towards more risk-taking, they're going back to more constructive environment.

所以上市市场一直在挣扎。

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So the the listed Market has has struggled.

我认为与此同时,伦敦在私募市场和对冲基金方面蓬勃发展,作为一个人们聚集的中心。

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I think what's happened at the same time is London has boomed with private Market markets, with hedge funds, um, as a center for you know, people coming together.

我们有一些非常棒的生命科学公司,问题在于这些业务是由外国资本驱动的,而不是国内资本,所以回报并没有流向英国储户。

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We've got some fantastic Life Sciences, the problem is it's being it's foreign Capital which is driving those businesses, not domestic Capital, so the returns are not going to UK Savers.

我认为作为一个国家,这是一个大问题。

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And I think as a country that's a big problem.

英国脱欧对此有何影响?

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What has Brexit did to this?

英国脱欧只是破坏了两件事:它破坏了人们对英国作为长期决策地的信心,并造成了两三年的完全停滞。

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Well, Brexit was just it undermined two things, it undermined confidence in the UK as a place to make long-term decisions and it created two or three years of complete Hiatus.

然后,在英国脱欧之后,你有了鲍里斯·约翰逊政府,你面临着围绕特拉斯预算和英国国债危机(guilts crisis: 指英国政府债券市场出现的动荡)的一系列挑战。

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And then you after Brexit you had Boris government, Boris Johnson's government, you had a whole set of challenges around list trust's budget and the guilts crisis.

突然之间,英国作为一个重要的合作伙伴和投资地的地位开始下降。

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All of a sudden, the UK as a serious counterpart and a place to invest started to decline.

我们已经开始看到这种情况得到纠正,但伤疤需要一段时间才能愈合。

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We've started to see that correct, but but say scars take a while to heal.

是否存在为了吸引公司而过度放松规则和法规,以至于变得像“狂野西部”的危险?

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Is there um a danger that in order to attract companies, you loosen up on the rules and regulations to the extent that it becomes you know, uh Wild West?

很多人都会提出这个论点,另一个问题是如果你不承担风险,你就不会获得回报。

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Well, that's that's the argument that a lot of people will make, the the other question is if you take no risk, you don't get a return.

所以,我认为答案是你要有一套规则,如果公司遵守这些规则,他们就可以在英国上市,然后由主动型基金经理选择他们想持有和不想持有的公司。

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And so I I think the the answer is you you have a set of rules and if companies abide by those rules, they can list in the UK, and then it's for active managers to choose which they want to own and which they don't want to own.

我认为英国一直擅长主动承担风险,我认为你需要稍微小心,不要制定一套如此严格的规则,以至于没有人愿意在这里。

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And and I think the UK has always been good at active risk-taking, and I think you slightly careful that you don't set a set of rules which are so prohibitive that no one wants to be here.

五年前我们就是那样,现在已经改变了。

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And that's where we were 5 years ago, that that's changed.

我们需要一个统一的欧洲股票资本市场吗?

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Do we need a unified European Equity Capital Market?

是的,我们会得到它吗?

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Yeah, and will will we get it?

不会。

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No.

人工智能的颠覆性影响

人工智能将如何改变你们的工作方式?

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AI, how is that going to change the way you do things?

方方面面。

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Everything.

以什么方式?

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In what way? Everything?

我认为它从根本上改变了我们投资的公司的格局。

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Well, I think it fundamentally changes the landscape of the companies we invest in.

在非常短期内,我们将花费大量时间尝试做得更好,可能比我们意识到的要快得多。

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In the very short term, we will spend a lot of time trying to do things better, in the probably far more quickly than we realize.

我们将发现我们做事的方式会非常非常不同。

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We will find we do things very very very differently.

目前我们都在思考“做得更好”的部分,但实际上真正的改变将来自于我们“做得不同”的时候。

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And the moment we're all thinking about the better bit, but actually the real change will come from when we do it differently.

所以我认为我们将看到重大变革的第一个领域是财富管理,因为我的感觉是人们会转向他们出色的人工智能助手。

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So I think the first place we'll see a major change is in wealth, because my sense is that people will turn to their beautiful AI assistant.

这个助手会比任何人都更了解他们,并以他们目前向人寻求财富建议的方式来寻求建议。

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Who will become who will know them better than anybody and ask them for wealth advice in a way that they currently ask people.

而且我不认为我们的投资组合经理与任何其他行业有什么不同。

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And I I don't believe our portfolio managers are indifferent from any other industry.

如果人工智能能帮助我们理解人类基因组和微生物组,它当然也能帮助你成为一个更好的投资者。

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If we can if if AI is helping understand the human genome back backwards, the microbiome backwards, it can certainly help you make become a better investor.

我认为我们有责任确保这些工具和数据呈现在我们的投资组合经理面前,以便他们在做决策时使用。

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And I think it's beholden on us to make sure those tools and that data is in front of our portfolio managers when they make decisions.

建设优秀团队与领导力

您如何建设优秀的团队?

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Now you are on how to build good teams, how to build good teams. Yeah, so how do you build good teams?

首先,你需要优秀的团队领导者,你需要给他们提供出色的工具。

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First thing, you you need brilliant leaders of those teams, you need to give them great tools.

团队规模要合适,他们需要靠近当地市场。

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They need to be the right size, they need to be near their local markets, um, and you need to give them space to get things wrong.

你需要给他们犯错的空间,因为伟大的投资者并非每天都做对。

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Because great investors don't get it right every single day.

他们可能会错三四年,你必须愿意支持他们。

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Then they might be wrong for three or four years at a time, and you've got to be willing to put your arms around them and support them.

但关键是你理解要承担的风险,他们是优秀的风险承担者,你也要清楚谁正在管理这些风险以及回报的路径依赖性。

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But the critical thing is you understand the risk to take and they're good Risk Takers, and you and you got your head around who is managing their way through that and the path dependency of returns.

您是哪种类型的领导者?

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And what kind of leader are you?

我发现我的风格是与组织建立联系,并努力驱动组织的“心”和“智”。

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Well, I I've discovered that I'm I'm a connecting with the organization and trying to drive the hearts of the organization as much as the minds of the organization has been ended up being being the style that that I've done.

我对创新充满热情,我上大学时通过写代码赚取学费,所以我有点像个技术宅。

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I I'm passionate about Innovation, I'm I spent my time paid my way through University Writing code, so I'm a bit of a geek.

所以对我来说,实现创新,对你的战略愿景保持高度一致,保持韧性,不偏离航向,但同时要确保你带着整个组织前进。

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So for me, the the getting the Innovation being really consistent about your strategic Vision, just being resilient and not be banged off course, um, but making sure you take the organization with you.

因为大多数企业的问题在于存在巨大的永冻层(permafrost: 比喻组织中抵制变革的僵化层级),他们认为变革与自己无关。

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Because the problem in most businesses is the huge layers of permafrost that don't think change has got anything to do with them.

你如何带领这些人,并创造新的能力?

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And how do you bring those people through and and create those new capabilities?

你如何融化永冻层?

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How do you melt permafrost?

我认为文化变革,所以优秀的团队是好公司和伟大公司之间的区别。

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I think culture change, the so so great great teams, right, is a difference between a between a good company and a great company.

这些团队中的优秀领导者将推动这种变革,但你需要让阳光照进黑暗的角落,这是最好的消毒剂。

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And and and great leaders within those teams will will drive that change, but you need to shine daylight into dark Corners, it's the best disinfectant.

您是否足够大胆?

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Have you been bold enough?

如果我回顾过去,我希望自己做得更多的事情就是更大胆一些。

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So I if I look back, what's the thing I wish I'd done more of is be more bold.

在哪些方面您应该更大胆?

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And in what ways should you have been more bold?

我们应该更早地进行更多的私募市场投资,因为复利效应。

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So we should have done more private markets earlier because compounding up.

我们可能应该更愿意收购更多的团队,而不是做那么多有机增长。

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We should have probably been more willing to acquire more teams and not do as much organically.

回顾过去,你们已经收购了不少。

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Um, and I think I look back the things you have acquired quite a lot.

我们确实收购了不少,但我们收购的规模较小,因为我不想破坏公司文化。

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We have acquired quite a lot, but we acquired small because I didn't want to destroy the culture, yeah.

对我来说,挑战在于公开市场文化和私募市场文化确实非常不同,你是否能让它们在同一个组织中成功共存,这是很难的。

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And so for me, because the challenge I think is that public market culture and private Market culture are really different, and can you get them to coexist in the same organization successfully is is hard.

这曾导致许多公司走向衰败,所以我当时说我们要非常努力地去做,但要慢慢来。

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And that was the thing which you've seen ruin many companies, and I so said we're going to we're going to work really hard at this, but we're going to go slowly.

事后看来,我们行业的颠覆速度比任何人想象的都要快得多。

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With hindsight, the disruption in our industry has been way quicker, yeah, than anyone thought.

ESG趋势与地缘政治摩擦

您如何看待最近ESG(环境、社会和公司治理: 评估企业可持续性和道德影响的因素)投资热情的转变?

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What do you make of the recent swing in appetite for ESG?

首先要说的是,它已经被政治化了,所以你看到了巨大的地域分歧。

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Well, first thing to say, it's been politicized, so that's so you've seen this huge Geographic diversion, yeah.

你绝对已经过了争论的高峰期,很多人现在不想谈论它。

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Um, and you've you you absolutely have passed Peak debate, I mean, so a lot of people don't want to talk about it now.

但在董事会和人们对气候重要性的认识方面,我认为这根本没有争议。

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And you've seen it, but I think in boardrooms and people's awareness of the importance of climate, I don't think that's debated at all.

所以公司正在做的事情非常真实,只是人们花更少的时间去谈论它。

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So what companies are getting on and doing is very real, it's just people spend a lot less time talking about it.

在一个地缘政治摩擦加剧的世界,例如中美之间,作为中国市场的主要参与者,你们面临着哪些困境?

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In a world with increased geopolitical frictions between the US and China for instance, um, what are the dilemmas of being a large player in China for you?

这真的很有趣,不是吗?

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Well, it's really interesting, isn't it?

大多数美国参与者在公开声明中已经停止谈论他们在中国的投资,但他们并没有撤回在当地的业务。

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Most US players have stopped talking about their Chinese investments in their in their public statements, but they haven't pulled back from their activities on the ground.

因为这是世界上最大的储蓄市场之一,这是一个巨大的市场,仅次于美国。

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Because this is one of the largest savings markets in the world, it's a huge, you know, it's it's second only to the US.

你们也停止谈论了吗?

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Have you stopped talking about it?

不,我们一直非常公开地谈论。

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Or no, we've we we've said very open about it.

推荐阅读

您经常读什么书?

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What do you read a lot?

最大的荣幸之一是我担任《金融时报》年度图书奖的评委,所以我读了很多关于商业的书。

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What one of one of the greatest privileges is is I'm a judge of the FT book of the year, so I read a lot of books about about business.

所以任何关于当今社会的东西都吸引我。

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So I'm my anything which is about society today for me.

例如,一本刚出版的杰出书籍《The Longevity Imperative》,它指出我们对长寿的思考方式完全错了。

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So so a brilliant book just out, "The Longevity Imperative", that says we've get we're getting ourselves thinking about longevity completely the wrong way.

乔纳森·海特(Jonathan Haidt)关于移动技术对儿童影响的书(《The Anxious Generation》),以及关于全球食物系统崩溃的《Ravenous》这类内容。

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Um, Jonathan Height's book about the impact of mobile technology on children, you know, the the stuff "Ravenous" about about Food Systems being broken around the world.

这些都是我们面临的真正重大问题。

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Those are the really big issues I think we Face.

再多给我们一些书名吧,您读了这么多。

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Come on, give us some more titles, you read all these.

关于人工智能的《AI Supremacy》。

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"W Supremacy" on on AI.

艾米·埃德蒙森(Amy Edmondson)的书(《Right Kind of Wrong》)是我们去年的获奖作品,您在播客中也肯定提到过,那是一本关于从失败中学习的杰出书籍。

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You Amy Ederson was was our winner last year, which you you you obviously covered in your podcast, which was was a brilliant book on on learning from failure.

我认为有这么多伟大的书,我的时间根本不够读。

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And I think there's so much great, I mean, there's so many brilliant books being written, I just don't have enough time to read them.