市场综述：英伟达、博通财报、AI政策与加密货币动态

Good morning everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market open.

It is Friday, December 12th and we are live.

We are at the end of the week, the official second week to end out December.

We got a lot to talk about.

We got Goulsby from the Fed who's speaking.

Bunch of things that have happened over the past couple of hours as well, which is why you probably saw the S&P 500 get a little bit of a spike in the pre-markets based on some of this Nvidia news.

And then obviously Broadcom earnings yesterday were pretty important.

So, we'll talk about that and go deeper into uh into what has happened over the past 24 hours.

Trump made a bunch of announcements yesterday around AI related executive orders.

So, we'll talk about that.

Essentially, a new framework for how to think of AI.

Um, and we've got a bunch of other different macro updates in regards to inflation, the labor market, different elements of the jobs data that we're going to be looking at.

And so, we're going to get through all of that today as we end out the second week of December uh with the S&P 500 basically at all-time highs.

We did hit all-time highs on the S&P yesterday after hours.

I think we got to 69050.

Um 68970 was the previous all-time high.

So, it might not feel like it because some of our favorite stocks aren't at all-time highs individually.

But the fact that the S&P 500 is at all-time highs is quite incredible.

And you know, it it is relatively healthy if you don't have Nvidia that's leading the S&P 500 because you are seeing a little bit more of a broadening in the rotation trade, which is very important as well.

So, we'll be we'll be talking about that.

Uh, you may have noticed that your boy found his scarf.

If I had found this scarf on Saturday last week, I wouldn't have missed the show on Monday because I wouldn't have got sick.

So, I found it yesterday when I went back home and I said, "I'm wearing my freaking scarf."

And your boy's cozy. Your boy is cozy.

I I have not been this warm in a long time.

No, the heat is on, but even with the heat on in the apartment, it is nice to just feel cozy.

So, I don't know.

At some point, I'll probably take it out cuz it becomes too much.

But, um, it feels great. It feels great.

Like, I genuinely like I have forgot what it feels like to wear a scarf and protect your neck in the winter in the cold.

S&P 500 right there. Basically, alltime high 68890 in the pre-market down about 0.04%.

But uh I'm very happy to be to be having my scarf again.

So rent is high. You got to save on heat. Yeah, exactly.

As well looks like a neck injury.

It look like I'm from the Taliban.

Okay, that's that's that that's probably accurate, but still I'm just trying to be warm.

Okay, I'm just trying to be warm.

My mom did not knit this for me, but shout out to Scarlet.

She was at the uh New York City meetup last year.

Which by the way, we're doing a stream tonight, 7:30 p.m.

Um the person who is now going to be in charge of a lot of AK Media operations, my new manager, she'll be live with me on the stream.

It'll be fun and we'll have a lot of details on um on uh the meet up for New York in February and just a bunch of different updates for the channel.

So, that'll be live at 7:30 tonight.

And for those that have been waiting for updates and a lot more details and just like more um logistics on how that's happening, that'll be talked about tonight.

But Scarlet, who was at the first New York City meetup, who bought a lot of pounder at $7, uh she knitted this for me and uh it's it's like a pounder.

Does this have a logo on it?

She had a hat that matches with it that has the pounder logo.

I don't know if the scarf has a logo on it, but she knitted this, which is which is awesome.

So there you go.

Yes. A scarf is like a blankie for your neck. Exactly.

I I if I had this on last week, I wouldn't have missed the show on Monday.

So, I'm keeping it on and your boy's going to Your boy's going to be nice and warm.

All right, so we got a lot to talk about.

Let's get into it.

I think we start off with the headline this morning from Nvidia and uh we'll get deeper into what we've got going on and then we'll get to Broadcom obviously because we had a lot to talk about from there.

I think we start off with the headline this morning from Nvidia and uh we'll get deeper into what we've got going on and then we'll get to Broadcom obviously because we had a lot to talk about from there.

But this broke uh about an hour ago. This was the headline.

Nvidia jumped to 183.

We'll see if Nvidia continues to hold on to these levels.

But Nvidia is evaluating increasing production of the H200 AI chips due to strong Chinese demand.

Chinese demand for H200 chips ahead of Nvidia's current production capacity.

Sources are telling Reuters. Uh now Beijing still has to approve imports and is weighing conditions such as bundling H200 bill uh buys with domestic chips aka not only allowing Alibaba, Tencent and some of these Chinese tech companies to only buy Nvidia chips.

But the H200 is about six times more powerful than the H20 which is the last chip that China's really had access to from Nvidia and roughly two to three times China's best local accelerators.

Meaning that although they don't have Blackwell which is significantly better than the H200, the H200 is significantly better than whatever China has.

And so all of that stuff we heard on Monday which caused Nvidia to go down from 190 to yesterday like 176 around uh the Chinese don't want Nvidia chips. It's like they may not want it but they need it especially if they want to actually be consistent in keeping up in any level of the AI race.

If they're not getting Blackwell like at some point they're going to have to concede all right we're not going to get the best chips but we need chips that are at least somewhat reasonable to trade on in the modern era and you can't be using chips from 5 years ago.

From that perspective, uh again, bullish Nvidia.

I I think the fact that this stock is still not trading closer to 200 is just presenting people more and more of an opportunity.

180 176 and whatever the fears the street has, Nvidia is going to have to keep putting up earnings to show that those fears are not rational.

But all the signs are pointing to those fears again not being rational.

Jensen Hang as well was named the time person of the year from um sorry not time uh from the financial times.

So he was part of the time kind of like architects of AI, but he was also named the Financial Time person of the year.

And so we got a lot of these business magazines coming out giving away their uh their person of the year awards. And Jensen Huang did it for the Financial Times.

He also told Time magazine yesterday uh a little bit of a quote that's been going viral.

There's a belief that the world's GDP is somehow limited at 100 trillion.

AI is going to cause that 100 trillion to become 500 trillion.

So, I mean, it would be quite incredible if that's the type of labor gains, productivity gains, margin enhancement that we see.

Uh, but it's hard to bet against someone who is spearheading that entire movement at scale the way that Mr. Jensen Huang is doing.

So, that's what we got with Nvidia and that's why we're getting some excitement as well in the pre-markets for Nvidia stock.

Now, Broadcom, this was the big one for yesterday.

I was live with Sam and Chris and Steve as we were discussing these earnings.

Look, the earnings were good.

Broadcom's down about 5% in the pre-market.

Uh I I think there's obviously a couple reasons why it's down.

It did pump 3% and then once Hawkan started answering questions on the call, the stock ended up tanking, which is what we see happen so many times in the markets.

And I think before we even get into what he said, stock was trading up 80% for the year.

So I mean, they kind of needed to have a perfect quarter.

They had a good quarter.

One could argue it might have been a perfect quarter.

uh AI revenues doubled 100% year-over-year and the guidance also is better than what street expected.

So they beat EPS by like what was it 17%.

Like everything that they needed to do they did in a pretty effective way.

The problem is they got asked some specific questions about none other than open AAI and those questions ended up leading to them saying some things that well were not the most productive things to say if you're trying to uh convince the street that you're going to get paid by OpenAI.

And as a result, the street got a little upset.

So this is what I really think brought down Broadcom.

Um, as far as the the quote from Hawkan, as far as the open eye view that you have, we appreciate the fact that it is a multi-year journey that will run through 29 as our press release with OpenAI showed, aka 2029, 10 gigawatts, more like 2027, 28,28, 2029, 10 gigawatts.

We do not expect much in 2026.

So that headline immediately got the stock down and then they guided for their nonAI revenue which is about 4.1 billion.

So similar to um uh similar to what it was last year as flat year-over-year.

So because you have a year-over-year nonI part of their business which is still a decent chunk of their business um you know 12 billion run rate going flat and showing no growth got upset about that.

So you had remarkable growth in AI, remarkable growth in AS6, remarkable growth in all the different elements of how they're investing in capex, data centers, etc.

Like everything you wanted to hear from Broadcom was amazing.

This is a two trillion dark a little bit below two trillion at this point.

But the open AAI deal was a big deal.

That's what got them a lot of excitement back in October.

And now they're saying, "Yeah, in 2026,"

and you know, AMD hasn't really announced any OpenAI revenue uh in a meaningful way.

Nvidia basically said, "We don't even have a definitive agreement with them. We just have like a framework for an agreement."

And now Broadcom is saying, "Hey, this is going to take some time for it to meaningfully accelerate."

And as a result, you're not seeing that type of momentum on a stock that's up 80% year-over-year because, you know, they just didn't have the best commentary on the earnings call.

Now, Goldman Sachs right here said today, "Manage did not update its prior guidance of 40 to 60% AI revenue growth in fiscal year 26 despite indicating that AI revenue is accelerating."

Uh during the conference call, the CEO mentioned that the company has a backlog of 73 billion in AI product order that will be shipped over the next six quarters, which disappointed expectations, even though it was presented as a minimum and management did not provide an AI revenue forecast for 2026.

So although 100% growth in Q1 was guided for fiscal year 2025 for AI revenues, which is incredible, they did not update formal fiscal year 2026 guidance, which is still at 40 to 60%.

Still incredible, still phenomenal.

40 to 60% growth is amazing.

It's just when you're trading at 80% when you're trading up for the year 80% and you are you know relatively more expensive than Nvidia when you compare their multiples.

Um yeah you you cannot increase guy which is the funny thing about Nvidia.

It's like Nvidia's already relatively cheap 25 times 2027 earnings and they increasing guidance dramatically and they're they're not afraid to give guidance.

And quite frankly if they didn't give guidance you know Jensen giving me that $500 billion number and video probably be trading lower because of how much of the sentiment is negative.

So they know they have to be as transparent as possible and update guidance aggressively and they're not getting rewarded for it.

Broadcom, which doesn't do that to some extent, is getting a much higher premium than Nvidia, although it is down 5% right here because of the lack of increase on the guidance.

So look, if you're a Broadcom shareholder, I don't think you should be upset about this call.

Uh I don't think you should care too deeply about uh how some of the idiosyncratic questions were answered by management.

Like these questions have real implications, but at the end of the day, if you're long Broadcom, you believe that they're going to grow.

You believe that the custom ASIC market is going to be massive.

You believe Google's TPUs are going to be crazy.

Uh, you know, Broad Broadcom also said they got another 11 billion order for the Ironwood GPUs.

Again, Broadcom is a big partner with Google to make those GPUs.

They didn't say who the customer is, but it's very likely that it's anthropic.

So, everything's going in the right direction.

It's just the stock was up 80% for the year.

It's just one of those names that like it was going to be hard to make a big move unless it was perfect.

And there were some parts of the call that were not perfect.

So 384 right here.

Now, does this pull an Oracle?

Oracle's call was horrendous.

Okay, Broadcom's call was not horrendous.

There were just a couple questions that weren't answered in, you know, the best way.

So, does this thing fall 10% today?

It's down 5% right here.

I mean, maybe.

I think that dip gets bought pretty easily, even if it doesn't get bought today.

So, uh, I probably wouldn't bite at the dip today.

You'd probably give some time to let it settle out.

You know, three-day rule.

Same thing with Oracle.

But if it falls, you know, 10% during the day, I don't think that's like some bearish thesis for the overall AI trade, for the overall argument around the ASIC market, it's just the stock's taking a breather.

And I think that's a reasonable thing for it to do given it was up that much.

So that's what we got on Broadcom and we're going to see how that affects the broader market.

When Broadcom was pumping yesterday after hours, we had the S&P 500 that made a massive move 68917.

It closed 68931.

after in the pre-market right now it did touch 69124.

So, uh, the fact that the S&P is up in the pre-markets, by the way, and Broadcom's down 5% and Oracle's down another 1% after those two, you know, were the sort of major names that, uh, were defining the the week based on AI is quite incredible.

And it means we are legitimately seeing a rotation.

And that rotation is uh, good because there's other parts of the S&P that are not lagging, which is very, very important.

What is a 3-day rule?

The three-day rule is sort of this like conventional argument that after a stock takes a dip immediately after earnings, you give it three days to see how the street reacts to it.

And after 3 days, if the stock is still, you know, meaningfully down, then maybe you want to nibble at the dip.

Uh which means you, you know, in the three days of the of the initial drop, if it reverses, then you miss the dip, but like at least, you know, you don't take the risk of it dipping even further.

Uh and if the stock is kind of flat, then you know that maybe it's consolidating.

Maybe 5% is the worst amount of pain that Broadcom is going to see.

Same thing with Oracle down from 220 to 198 fell all the way to 187 now kind of back into that low 200 range just below 200.

So maybe if it normalizes there, then after three days, it's more easy to buy the dip given the street is okay having these prices.

And so that's what we're going to have to see for for uh for Brock.

Lulu Lulu crushed it.

Uh good earnings.

CEO is leaving.

Street likes it up 10.75%.

They beat EPS by 17%.

Again, I don't know how these retailer companies, if the consumer is in such horrible position, are being able to beat by these levels, but they are.

And so Lulu on trend with a lot of the other companies like Abberropy and Urban Outfitters last week that showed good results.

Um I was talking about this with Steve last night.

I don't know what's the reason to be super excited about Lulu going into 2026 unless there is something you know about their go to market or their brand positioning that is fundamentally differentiated.

But outside of that there's just a lot of opportunities and AI again Nvidia trading at these levels feels weird versus going long overpriced jeans and sweatpants.

So it is what it is.

I think it was a good quarter and I think you know 2026 should be fine but it was not like something they said on the call that was just so tremendous that you have to really take a second look at Lulu.

Now granted I haven't dug that deep into it but it was a good beat and raise CEO left streets excited about that but didn't get too much besides that.

And then Costco relatively good quarter as well that's down.37%.

They beat on the top and bottom so nothing too crazy for Costco as that one is flat in the pre-market.

And that's what we got. And that's what we got.

Dude, these comments about the uh about the scarf are amazing.

I should wear more crazy stuff just to see these comments.

These are these are great.

A mids fresh Christmas caroling. Oh my gosh.

This is a great This is great, dude.

I'm warm.

I can't take him serious with the scarf.

I am warm. I love it.

I am freaking warm and I need to I need to stay warm.

Triple V, thank you for being here.

Thank you for the $200 super chat.

Uh I was on the phone with Mr. TripleB yesterday and uh yeah, he uh he has definitely been crushing it this year and we were just kind of talking about overall portfolio management and strategies going into 2026.

And so, yeah, it's been a pretty strong year for a lot of people.

And, you know, a lot of these names that have been doing well for people, they're starting to come back towards the end of the year.

In November, we had a pretty ugly draw down for everybody.

And, you know, we talked about year-to dates yesterday.

Uh, for those that missed it, my year to date is 70%.

And I think by the end of the year, that can get closer to 90%.

But a lot of these names that took a hit still haven't recovered.

Some of them have recovered decently.

So, Hood went, you know, from 150 to 100. Now, it's back at 125.

Not a full recovery but a decent recovery and I think towards the end of the year it can stay at these levels.

Nvidia I think should be closer than 200.

So we got three weeks left to see how these portfolios turn out.

You might have some more fund managers and if you believe in this Tom Lee thesis that are going to start chasing in the past couple weeks as they try to get their outperformance.

But I think at this point whatever stocks are in your portfolio have defined your year.

I mean like simple example Rocket Lab my goodness 10% yesterday.

Like if you're heavy in Rocket Lab and that thing fell from 75 to 38.

That must have sucked.

And I know a couple people that are very heavy in Rocket Lab and it was annoying, right?

Because you you might have been up like 110% year to date. You ended up going back to 40% because one of your biggest names took a massive draw down.

This thing's starting to recover.

And it has nothing to do with with the company.

It has everything to do with, you know, SpaceX's IPO and the idea of data centers in space.

these narratives if you're in a high quality company can meaningfully affect that company uh if it is positioned in the right way.

And so a lot of people that lost a lot of gains on Rocklab on paper, those are coming back.

And I think even if it closes around the $60 range, people will be happy.

So Rocklab down about 1.5% in the pre-market, but it's up 40% for the week, which is just incredible.

And so, you know, that's why I think you're getting some momentum.

Why does it have nothing to do with the company?

because Rocket Lab didn't announce anything this week.

That the 40% move this week was not random and people woke up and they're like, "Oh, Rocket Lab's an amazing company."

It's like, no, there was a massive piece of news around SpaceX going public at a $ 1.5 trillion valuation potentially.

And then you got Elon who for four days didn't say anything until last night and said, "Actually, yeah, we probably are thinking of it."

And then you had the street like, "Okay, so do I buy SpaceX at 1.5 trillion or do I get exposure to something else?"

And the number one name that popped up AS by the way also doing well was Rocket Lab.

I don't think Rocket Lab makes a 40% move in a week along with the other space names unless you have excitement from SpaceX.

Now the point is Rocket Lab is a space company that is viewed as high quality which is why it is getting the premium and it happens to be in the right niche but they just didn't say anything in particular that you know would cause that.

Sorry it's a 55% move in the past week.

ESTs as well of 50%.

So yeah, I the catalyst were just in the right place.

But this is what it means to be in a high quality company that's also high beta.

Like you don't get those massive year-to-day returns unless you're in something high beta like a rock collab, but you have to live with the draw downs of 70 to 30.

And it sucks living with those draw downs.

But if the company isn't a meme stock and it's very high quality and it's, you know, growing and they're positioning themselves, even if they trade an aggressive multiple, any piece of news inside that niche can fundamentally alter the trajectory of how people think of it.

And at the end of the day, SpaceX 1.5 trillion, Rocket Lab 30 billion.

I got a lot of people that are gonna say screw the valuation.

Like if Rocket Lab can even get to one10enth, which would be around what 150 billion of SpaceX's potential IPO, that's a 5x from here.

That's 150 billion market cap.

It's trading at 30.

And so I think that's why uh that's why you're seeing some of that momentum for for Rock.

All right. So we talked about Broadcom, we talked about uh Nvidia, Tillray.

So the weed stocks are going crazy right here.

Uh, Tillray is up 39%.

Aurora Cannabis is mooning in the pre-market.

Uh, ACB is that ticker that's up 21%.

So, Trump basically said yesterday, or at least the White House, the rumors around the White House is that they are going to declassify marijuana in a more significant way.

Um, and the White House did not confirm it, but you got a lot of people close to the administration think that's going to happen.

Trump seeks to cut restrictions on marijuana through planned order.

The president is scheduled to expect direct to expect to direct agencies to reclassify marijuana as a schedule three drug similar to some common prescription painkillers.

Also, yes, Golden Dome for Rocket Lab is going to be a big deal.

I mean, if weed ends up becoming like a prescription painkiller where it is, you know, you don't need just like a recreational license in places where it's banned, but like you can have a doctor prescribe it for a variety of reasons.

I mean, yeah, the weed stocks are going to rip on that narrative.

Yeah, the MSOS, that's the weed ETF that's up 35%.

Now, look, would you take this trade expecting a bigger move?

I think the move has already happened, but then again, this is a pretty aggressive rumor.

I mean, this is an industry that has been dead basically for the past five years, and Trump is sparking it to life with these potential rumors uh of of of weed becoming much more accessible.

So, I think the move has happened.

Obviously, the move can keep going, but I think the riskreward is a little bit more tilted to the risk versus reward because what if the White House comes out and says, "Yeah, this is not true."

or you just have a bunch of people that take profits because I mean they're up 35% 40% on a bunch of these individual names and and it kind of doesn't have the uh ability to keep making moves.

So yeah, weed stocks are continuing to move higher.

Maybe that actually makes a move towards the end of the year.

Maybe that's a 2026 play if Trump actually like officially makes this a real thing and uh you know it opens up a lot of opportunities.

But we're going to see throughout the end of the month if that continues to uh continues to play out.

Uh, gold and silver, how are they doing?

Silver continues to make its move 6447.

Gold actually up 2% pre-markets, 4344.

I think alltime highs on gold are 4,500.

So once again, gold and silver from a commodities perspective has been doing incredibly well and it looks like this trade is going to end out nicely going into the end of the year.

How many states is weed legal? How many states is weed legal in?

It's like 20, right?

24 states.

New Jersey is one of them.

New York is one of them.

Uh California obviously is one of them.

Massachusetts, which I haven't had to say that name or that state for so long.

And now that I'm saying it, I remind myself that I can't say that freaking word.

That also was one of the first states outside of California that legalized it, I think four or five years ago.

So yeah, I mean if that expands anywhere meaningfully to, you know, 50 states, that could be a very, very big deal.

Massachusetts, dude, it's the freaking craziest name for a state and I can't say it.

It's been three years.

For those that have been watching for three years, I can't say that freaking word.

Massachusetts.

I don't get it.

I don't know why it sounds like that, but I can't say it.

Um S&P 68917 in the pre-markets.

Okay. What did Trump sign yesterday?

Basically, he signed an executive order that would set a federal standard for AI ensuring a national policy framework for artificial intelligence.

This order declares that the United States must have one minimally burdensome national standard for AI, not 50 disordinant state ones.

The administration will work with Congress to define that standard.

The objective is to prevent a confusing regulatory framework while protecting important values like child safety.

This order is not that framework itself or an amnesty or moratorium, but rather a statement of principles and a set of tools for the administration to push back on the most ownorous and excessive state AI laws.

I like it.

I think it makes a lot of sense.

If we're going to have massive AI progress, we're going to need a federal standard.

And that federal standard is going to uniquely have to make sure that states cannot stop companies from innovating simply because the Texas standard for AI is not consistent with the California standard for AI.

And so although there's going to be different minutia within the laws like there are for a variety of states that have different ways to operate, uh having one federal standard definitely should push the industry forward.

And again like this this this broader macro AI theme, you either believe it's fake or you believe it's real.

If you believe it's real, the question is are the regulators on your side?

And my goodness, are the regulators on the side of AI?

I mean, and I think the Trump administration rightfully understands that the only way we're going to get meaningful GDP growth is if we push this industry, which is why they're even letting Nvidia sell these H200s back to China.

Uh, and they're going to do everything they need to make sure this industry succeeds.

And as a result, I think that should be relatively bullish for a lot of those names.

Obviously, in the semiconductors names, but also the software names that are benefiting from the AI momentum pounder right there.

18656, that's down about half a percent.

And then you got Nvidia that's up about half a percent in the pre-markets as well.

Uh quick update on Grab.

So I actually have an update today on Grab.

I know we haven't had a lot of updates over the past couple weeks, but we have a big update, relatively big update.

Um COO Alex Hungate was at a conference and he spilled the beans on Q4 and demand reaffirmed commitment to service accessibility and holiday demand peak.

They have 24-hour booking assistance booths at all their terminals and their airports.

They're expecting year-to-date data showing a jump of more than 30% in ride hailing demand.

Tourism demand they say is at near all-time highs and certain regions are demanding higher.

Grab continues to put a premium on supporting its driver partners.

Grabb's mapping algorithms generate most the most the efficient routes to collect all their locations and demand for mobility and delivery they're expecting could spike near 40% or higher in Q4 signaling the strongest quarter they've had in history.

quote from the CEO. This quarter we've had to actually boost the driver incentive slightly because the growth in demand was so high. We needed to make sure that we could maintain the fulfillment quality and reliability of our services.

So look, I know the stock is not cooperating.

Um it's a story as old as time of the stock or the company improving their metrics.

This is going to be their 16th quarter of adjusted even of profitability and this is going to be the best quarter ever based on what we're seeing with tourism demand, Q4, etc.

the COO basically outlined and said that it's going to be their best quarter, but the stock's not reacting to it.

And so I I think there's just other factors that are controlling the stock to stay down.

I can't fully explain what those factors are, but all I can do as someone who's analyzing it is say, is something broken in the company or something broken in the thesis of the stock.

And right now, something is broken with the stock, not the company.

And usually those tend to be some of the best asymmetric opportunities.

But time is going to tell.

And so I think if anyone is worried about the actual fundamentals of the company, that's just not the case.

stock market is a different question, but hopefully we do see a little bit more momentum going into the end of the year after again we potentially get that go-to acquisition which is also going to be something that could fundamentally rewrate the entire architecture of how you think of the trajectory for demand and consolidation in the region over the coming years.

But that is the update we have on grab.

Okay, macro.

Let's talk about uh let's talk about let's talk about some of the this macro news that we come out.

Got a lot of different charts here.

Uh, one thing I saw yesterday and shout out to Cactus because he sent this, uh, GoFundMe for people that don't know that, which I think it's a relatively global product and most people have interacted with it.

Uh, it is a platform where you can donate to causes.

So, if you uh have a story around something that you need to crowdsource money for, you can write, you can make a GoFundMe.

They actually used to be a profitable company.

You used to take a fee off the money you used to get and then I think they turned into a nonprofit a couple years ago.

and you can say, "Hey, something bad is happening."

And if your campaign goes viral, right, like millions of people could be donating money um and and you could raise money in that way.

Well, thi this I thought was quite incredible yesterday.

Uh they put out their their their top three things that people ended up like making a GoFundMe for.

Number one was charity, which is expected.

Number two were monthly bills.

And number three was faith.

So the number two thing that people set up a GoFundMe for for going into uh throughout 2025 was just, hey, monthly bills, right?

Hey, I'm like, I need to be able to pay rent. I need to be able to pay this. I need to be able to pay that.

And those were the most viral campaigns or the second most viral campaigns around GoFundMe.

Now, one could argue, as some of you guys say in the chats, some of those could be scams.

Yes, that's that's fair.

Some of those obviously could be scams.

Um, a lot of these stories, if you actually have ever donated to GoFundMe, you know, you can verify this stuff.

You can go to the person's profile, you can see what they're saying.

So, like, if we're not going to be as cynical to imagine they're all scams, uh, it goes back to this argument around the state of the consumer, which is that on a platform that is built for very specific purposes around certain events happening where you can crowdsource money, the second biggest thing that people cared about to raise money for were paying monthly bills.

And so, uh, I think from that, it needs a GoFundMe for heating cause.

Yes, that's why I have a scarf.

But I think from that perspective, it obviously does show that this K-saped economy is not slowing down.

It continues to be something that is very real.

Um, and more and more people, you know, are are participating in in a K-shaped economy that is benefiting from some consumers subsidizing the cost of other consumers, but other consumers being incredibly weak.

It's just conflicting with the data that we're seeing from earnings where companies like Five Below are beating on earnings and it doesn't make a lot of sense because you know that that should be tailoring to tailored to the lower income consumer which shouldn't be shopping so much to the point where a company that doesn't even have good margins like a five below is ending up to beat on earnings.

So I mean it's quite it it's just it was it was fascinating to see that yesterday.

But those are the campaigns that are going viral.

And if those campaigns are going viral, then you're seeing more and more of the consumer needing that uh that excitement.

People have so much extra cash that they give their money to help them with their bills.

Well, the thing about GoFundMe is like even if you can get a campaign to go viral and get a million people to give 10 bucks, five bucks, you know, someone given five or 10 bucks because they feel bad after they read a story um is not breaking their bank.

it doesn't mean they're necessarily rich or anything, but if you can get a campaign to go viral and you have, you know, thousands of people giving that money, you know, that's that's when it can actually produce just bigger returns.

So, I thought that was one thing that was pretty interesting yesterday given some of the other macro stuff that we looked at as well.

The other update right here in the macro is what Trump said.

So, uh we talked about the Trump gambling uh regulation yesterday, which he's thinking of getting rid of taxes on gambling.

Uh the other thing he said is that they're preparing to introduce large tax breaks for corporations which would function for R&D.

So the tax guidance which would come as early as next week which will allow companies to take full advantage of research and development tax breaks under Trump's new tax bill.

Corporations can claim retroactive R&D deductions set to be worth 67 billion which is a big deal.

I mean you got a lot of these companies that are investing heavily in AI.

if they can more effectively use the tax code to more meaningfully invest in AI and whether R&D includes data centers or R&D includes new ideas for how they can make their chips more efficient around the entire semiconductor stack.

I mean that's just a lot more investment in the overall economy.

We know that the Trump administration uniquely has been focusing on not a consumer oriented economy but an investment focused economy.

We quite frankly haven't invested uh for the past 40 years.

Right?

The United States companies have largely been asset light.

Now they're asset heavy with all this capex.

So that could be big for the broader AI sector.

now it would be not the best for tax revenue but if it increases productivity then you know maybe we may make up for it on the other side.

And so that's one of the tax updates that came out yesterday from Trump um from Trump as well.

Uh tenure spiking right here at 4.2%.

That is correct.

Seeing a little bit of a move right there.

It was going down yesterday.

Again we had JPAL on Wednesday.

He was pretty damn dovish.

Uh you had Goulsby this morning on CNBC who was one of the people who voted to not give a rate cut and he wasn't that hawkish to be honest.

Basically he said uh I just want to see more data that inflation's going down because I think the labor market is cooling but it's not cooling as aggressively and I would vote for multiple rate cuts in 2026.

Nonetheless, you had you know nine people that disagreed with him and felt the labor market is a bigger issue.

Tenure right here is spiking a bit 4.198.

I don't think we get any crazy macro data today.

We had a lot of the jobs claims yesterday.

We had consumer confidence.

So, we shouldn't be getting too much data today. Uh that would potentially affect stuff.

But you do have the tenure making up a little bit of a move.

Uh another chart on data centers.

So, take a look at this.

JP Morgan is the largest lender to data center infrastructure so far in 2025 with exposure to nearly 6 billion in debt.

And then the next one is a Japanese company.

Then you have a French bank.

Uh and then you get down to the American banks like Blackstone, Bank America, Deutsch Bank, Cityroup, etc.

But you do have a lot of the banks which financials had a massive run yesterday that are starting to get more into the data center space and there's obviously seeing this as a massive opportunity which is also spiking up the credit default swaps for some of these companies that are really uh really engaging in this this debt financing.

And overall, I think this is going to be a trend in 2026 that probably doesn't slow down as well.

Yeah, Feds Goldby said he's projecting more rate cuts in the medium for 2026.

So, he's actually doubbish for 2026.

He just wasn't doubbish for this particular cut that we had on uh on Wednesday.

Wow, look at this headline.

Interactive Brokers allowing accounts to be funded by Stablecoin.

Okay, so you have that headline that a brokerage is allowing your account to be funded by Stablecoin.

Then you had a YouTube headline.

YouTube is allowing creators to get paid or to get paid to get paid uh in stablecoin.

I thought that was a pretty interesting thing.

They're basically trying to give creators more independence by choosing how they get paid and uh you can essentially get paid in crypto and the interaction is with PayPal's USD stable coin.

So the thesis for Ethereum is that a lot of the stable coin adoption will continue at scale on Ethereum.

not all of it on Ethereum, but a good chunk of it.

Right now, I think it's about 62% of the total volume.

And you know, if that continues to happen, then we should see more and more of that excitement for Ethereum as well.

I don't know why I said they hated, bro.

That was a weird word, but that's what you got.

Uh, Fermy, another data center stock, is down 45%.

I think they lost one of their tenants this morning.

This is a company that went IPO.

Yeah, down 40%.

I believe they lost one of their tenants this morning is was what was announced.

Uh this was an IPO back in April or no back in like July.

So I don't think it's a big heavy retail name.

But these data center names are volatile.

You lose a tenant, you lose a client, you lose a hyperscaler that you're working on a deal with, your stock is going to get hit pretty bad.

And you know that's what we've seen with Nebas and Core.

We've know those guys.

If they gain a client, their stock gets some love.

If they lose one or there's any bad headline, the data center names obviously will take a hit.

So, you're seeing Fermy right there. That is down about 40%.

Dude, these comments about the scarf.

These are I need I should get a new scar.

I should get a different color scarf every day and wear it.

First of all, I just feel so toasty. I feel so warm.

I've never felt so warm doing market open.

So, I think scarfs are the uh are the are the next big fashion thing for me going into 2026.

That's what That's what we got to do.

Uh, okay.

What other main headlines do we have this morning? Again, nothing too crazy today.

We don't have earnings.

We don't have anything wild happening after hours.

Uh, ultimately, we're going to have to see how this plays out going into next week.

We got two weeks left of December.

So, this is really what we're going to see.

Do we get that outperformance?

And we got the S&P 500 trading at all-time highs, which is nice to see.

I guess Robin Hood, let's talk about that for a second.

Uh, you got a lot of people yesterday on Twitter that are making these proclamations that I think are a bit absurd, but nonetheless, they're making these arguments and I don't know, it's not even worth responding to some of this stuff.

So, you got people saying Robin Hood's going down 70 to 80% next year because they looked at their November metrics and because there were four less trading days in November after October was a unusually volatile month.

Therefore, the November numbers were down month over month, even though they were gigantically up year-over-year.

Their argument is Robin Hood is dead.

I just I don't know.

Like, if we enter into a bare market, which is very possible, maybe that happens.

Yes, Robin Hood's going to take a massive hit, but so is everything else, which is why the analysis is just like such so intellectually mediocre, which is the the the politically correct way of saying really stupid.

This is the politically correct way of saying really stupid.

Like, oh, we get a bare market, Robin Hood goes down.

Yeah. And so does everything else.

the top. You think Rocket Lab's holding 65 in a bare market?

Think Nvidia's even getting, you know, hold be close to 180?

Think the S&P is going to be pushing almost 690?

Like, no.

So, like if Robin falls 80 70% or whatever these people are proclaiming and the market goes up, then oh my goodness, there's like some a fundamental break in the thesis.

But if if we don't have a bare market, I mean, I think the analysis from some of these people are is kind of crazy.

So yeah, I think a lot of these tweets that have been going viral, I'm not even responding to it because I'm like this this doesn't make any sense to respond to it.

I think they're discounting a lot of different metrics that are starting next year, a lot of different mechanisms of growth that Robin is rolling out with prediction markets, banking, etc.

Uh and I think it's over uh analyzing a November report when a lot of these people don't even know how to read the monthly metrics.

They just see the headline that oh it's down month over month, therefore Robin must be declining.

It's like that's not how this works.

Like you have to know a brokerage.

there's four less trading days.

You add those four trading days.

These these numbers, you know, they they have to be fundamentally analyzed through the context of Robin Hood's business.

And I think that's kind of the argument that is missing from a lot of these people.

Vlad did a podcast yesterday and I think this podcast also was pretty important in terms of what he was talking about with um with the prediction market.

So, let me load this up right here.

Again, I will have a subset coming out on this very soon and I'll be discussing a bit more about um what's going on with the with prediction markets and how big I think the industry is.

But you do have a lot of these companies that are getting pretty bullish on it.

Also, uh what's the other company?

Gemini was up 45% yesterday.

Another crypto stock that is building their own prediction market and the street is giving them a premium because they see how large the market is and how a lot of these companies could tap into it.

>> to the product. So prediction markets is a new one for us because we were kind of out in front and then it's sort of like how do we maintain our lead and and market positioning and you know when we have a bunch of people coming after us. It has surprised me that you know you have the exchanges uh like like Paulie and Khi who have obviously been been there from the beginning but like no other broker has has gotten into it yet.

um uh no other broker of significant consequence and I I think they're coming like they're seeing what we're doing uh and they see that it's resonating with traders and and just with mass market retail. Um but yeah, I think we're also moving and and and we're adding new innovations. I think the event that we're going to we're going to unveil on the 16th is going to is going to show some new things to people that that they haven't seen before. Um and it's the fastest growing business that Robin Hood's had. you know, in the past year, we've gone from one single contract, which is the presidential election, to over 1500.

>> Uh we've gone from it's basically the volume has doubled quarter over quarter. Uh Q3 had I want to say 2.2 million contracts. Uh but then October had 2.5 million. So more than Q3 put together. And then you had November, we announced some November numbers. uh three billion contracts traded in November which is uh >> yeah that's a 30 million revenue in a month so so 360 million run rate if you if you take uh the November numbers um which is a big ramp and

>> I think um >> you know it's it's it's just been really resonating with with the traders

>> and sports betting

>> uh sports a big part of it but uh the big part of what we're doing is also uh diversifying the contracts so it used to be just elections and elections I think um to me is probably the most interesting. Then we added sports and we've added a ton of leagues there.

>> Is it sports betting or like what is it exactly?

>> Uh I I liked uh most people I talked to call it wagering.

>> Wagering. Okay. I like the language there.

>> Uh I think it's different uh in all seriousness to sports betting. And a lot of people ask about you know how is it different from a regulatory standpoint from a product standpoint? I think it's significantly different. And I haven't really done much sports betting, but and what people love about it is you can actually trade uh these contracts during the game.

>> So, you know, the

>> So, I'll link the podcast if anyone wants to listen to it, but he goes on to further say that it's more like trading a stock versus sports betting and and the more research I've done sports betting, by the way, I've never signed up to FanDuel, Draft Camp. I've never been a sports better. Like, I've never been in that world. I've just like never understood the real appeal of it. also have never, you know, liked gambling on sports. Um, but the difference is, as I've been doing research, is that it's rigged. Like the house always wins and if you win too much, they can just ban you from your DraftKings account. In these prediction markets, again, the fundamental difference is it's peer-to-peer. There is no house. You don't if you lose on the Lakers, Robin Hood doesn't win. Someone else who took the other side of your bet wins. Robin just gets the fee in the middle. which means if you win on the Lakers and you do it consistently, they're not going to ban you because they have no incentive because all they want to do is collect the fee in the middle. And so from that perspective, I just I think the traditional sports b sports betting industry I don't understand how anyone can be bullish on it over the next 10 years because this is where consumers are going to this is where we're seeing rapid adoption. This is where you're seeing a lot more uh from a psychological perspective, the ability for people to trade in and out of these contracts. And it's just more exciting to a lot of people. And even if you consider it gambling, it's a way better form of gambling than the house being uh having a built-in vig to to to consistently make sure they get their profit. So the point is, I think there is a world, and I'm in my research, this is what I've been seeing. I think there's a world where there will be prop trading shops, prop uh hedge funds that pull tons and tons of money and they trade these prediction markets just like they're trading stocks. I really do think that's going to be what we see in the future. And I think Vlad knows that that's happening. I don't know what they're announcing on the 16th for their prediction markets event, but I do think I hope it's a desktop version of the app because that would like really make them more competitive with the other guys. Uh but I think a lot more institutions are getting into this game because if there is something that can be traded whether it's gold, silver, soybeans, corn futures, Nvidia, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Fartcoin, like if it's something that can be traded, money is going to find it. And if it's regulated, which these contracts are already regulated from the CFTC, then the regulatory framework just means that more money can enter into it because most institutions are regulated. So I think it's a massive industry. I think it's going to grow next year. Even if crypto takes a hit for Robin Hooded, that could be one of the verticals that they continue to make more momentum on. So, we're going to see how that plays out going into going into the end of the year.

All right, folks.

We got 30 seconds.

Thank you everybody for being here.

We got through another week of December.

Again, I will be live tonight at 7:30.

Uh we'll be doing another stream with some more details on the future of the channel for 2026, the future of the meetups next year.

So, we'll have a lot of updates on that.

I mean, it's been a good week so far.

Some of these names have not got back to their all-time highs, but the S&P hard to complain trading at these levels.

We're going to see when the market opens if the Broadcom earnings really do affect it.

Again, for those that are just joining, Nvidia headlines came out this morning.

Looks like China does want a lot more H200 chips.

That's why Nvidia's green.

And now, we're going to get to see if the market cares as we get into the market open.

Friday, December 12th, 9:30 a.m.

Thank you everybody for being here.

I don't have my bell because I'm an amateur at this even after three years.

It's in my book bag because I came from my parents house last night.

So, give me give me 10 seconds.

One.

Okay.

The stock market is now open.

I think you do this after three years that you'll be more prepared.

All right, 68793 on the S&P 500 that is down about 17%.

Robin Hood up from 122 yesterday that's at 125 1.3%.

Nvidia that's up42%.

Grab is up 58%.

Palenter 18533 that is down about 1.1.

Aurora cannabis and these weed stocks.

Again, Trump is thinking of making marijuana a schedule three drug on uh on par with prescription three level drugs or sorry prescription medicines which are schedule three drugs which is why these stocks are ripping higher.

That means you'll be able to get prescribed weed if you have any issues which is quite incredible.

So that is why those stocks are getting a move.

Costco down 1% Lulu 12%.

CEO stepping down.

Street likes it that's up 12% on the day.

Oracle still down.

Broadcom.

Wow.

Broadcom 7% down on Broadcom.

That's a little aggressive.

$31 on Broadcom.

37590.

1.78 trillion.

Just lost what?

35 billion of market cap.

33 billion.

7.72 375.20.

Let's see if that dip gets bought up.

Is that affecting the S&P?

I mean, barely.

It's barely affecting the S&P.

Nothing.

68848.

S&P is down 80 cents while Broadcom's down a lot.

And Broadcom, I think, is in the if, correct me if I'm wrong, I think it's in the top 15 holdings of the S&P.

So, it's definitely a player here.

And uh that's why Amcor is getting hit right there.

Amcore is a big supplier with Broadcom.

Um Google might be getting hit because of this as well.

Google's actually green.

Okay, so Google holding on even though Broadcom is down.

We talked about Brocom in the morning.

Again, I don't think fundamentally they deserve to take a massive hit.

The problem is they said two things.

Their nonAI revenue is going to be flat year-over-year.

And then they said OpenAI is not going to be generating any revenue for them in 2026.

So they admitted that they have a big OpenAI partnership, but they might not get any revenue for OpenAI next year.

Um maybe they'll surprise to the upside.

Maybe they're just being conservative.

But those two things alone along with the fact that the stock was up 80% going into the print, that is why I think it's getting hit right here.

Down 8% on the day.

We'll see if that gets uglier, but Broadcom right now, not a horrible quarter, just not a perfect quarter.

And given their multiple, they needed a a pretty perfect quarter to keep that going.

Netflix getting a move that's up 2.2.

One of the reasons Netflix may be getting a move, and this is very unofficial, but nonetheless, maybe the market is potentially pricing this in.

Um, prediction markets have Netflix at only a 36% chance. Paramount is now has a 50% chance of closing the Warner Bros. acquisition, which technically is bullish for Netflix because if they don't have to spend $90 billion on a company, you know, that might be better for the stock.

Paramount is now has a 50% chance of closing the Warner Bros. acquisition, which technically is bullish for Netflix because if they don't have to spend $90 billion on a company, you know, that might be better for the stock.

Granted, the future of Netflix might be better if they spend that 90 billion today.

But, uh, you might have the street thinking that they're not going to get Netflix or not going to get Warner Brothers and that's why the stock is up.

Now, maybe it's the opposite.

Maybe the street is getting more excited because they think Paramount's not going to be able to complete the deal.

But, you have two different ways to interpret how Netflix is moving right here.

Nvidia getting some momentum.

18226.

Robined 125.

It bottomed yesterday at 122.

We'll see if it can hold that level.

Tillray, that's up 35%.

Rocket Lab just a freaking rocket ship.

Barely down on the day.

6328 up from that 61 level in the pre-markets.

Broadcom continues to get hit down eight.

Continues to get hit as that one is not able to hold its momentum from yesterday.

Soundhound, what do we got on Soundhound?

That's up 4%.

Nebus is up a little bit.

Again, the news on Nvidia is that China is reportedly seeking more production of the H200 from Nvidia because of increased demand, which is obviously very very bullish because none of the China revenue is baked into Nvidia's guidance.

So, if they get any bit of revenue, even if it's a couple billion, that would be a massive beef for them.

Oracle right there going down 1.3 as well.

Looks like Broadcom's taken Oracle with it.

Uh Costco is also down 1%.

Rivian unveiled their own chip.

They're moving off of Nvidia's platform and they're building their own chip in house which they say is I think like four times faster at what they're trying to do inside their vehicles.

Um, so I guess Street likes it.

That's up 5.72% and they have their AI day yesterday. That was getting investors more excited.

So green 2722.

How about Tesla?

Tesla's 452. That's up 1.3.

Tesla's been chilling around this 430 450 level for the past realistically two weeks now and it feels like it wants to break out closer to that 465 that it was at a month ago.

But right now holding 450 is not horrible.

I renat now Iren is, you know, I I know people who bought Iran at 6070 probably don't love the price action, but if you bought Iran, you know, in the 20s or 30s, you got to be happy with the consolidation.

Like I feel like it's it's like I think at 70 and 80 most people understood, hey, this thing is up 8x for the year.

You know, maybe it's a little aggressive.

Now it's up 4x for the year, which is still aggressive, but uh it's consolidating.

Same thing with Nebas.

I mean, Nebia's been chilling in the 90s, 85 to 90s for the past three weeks now.

I don't think that's horrible.

Doesn't have to jump to 140 immediately.

I think it's developing a new base of investors and actually gaining some momentum here inside of these levels, which will allow it to make the next leg up.

Same thing with Iran and then you know potentially same thing for core that is down 50% from those highs at at 150 87 on core basically flat on the day.

Apply digital this one as well that's up 1%.

This was thing was pushing 35 earlier this week.

This one's still up a lot year today.

Lulu's still up 10% on the day.

Sound did get a $15 price target this morning and that's why they're getting some momentum.

Andos, how about this one from a drone perspective?

Flat, but that one also up 250%.

Year to date, hoodie 124.

S&P barely budging 68855.

I mean, we're there.

We're basically at all time highs.

We're very close to 7,000.

Tom Lee says 7,700 next year.

Um, which is 11% upside.

He's not being uber bullish, but he is expecting a decent level of upside.

You have some other firms like Oppenheimer coming out at 8,100.

And I think a lot of it is going to depend on how aggressive we are when it comes to actually lowering rates.

AMD is up 222.

That goes green.

The China news for Nvidia should be good for AMD regardless.

181 on Nvidia.

Rocket Lab, are we still holding on?

Wow.

Rocket Lab goes green again.

6350 on Rocket Lab as it's holding on.

Google right there at 313.

Broadcom, are we still tanking?

We are

all right.

We bounced from 372 424 to 377 though.

The shorts definitely won today on Broadcom.

Pretty ugly reversal, but also kind of expected just given how high they've been trading this year.

Admit you look like a failed poet.

You know, that's actually a good one.

That's a failed poet.

It's low-key legit.

That is a that is definitely a way to to describe it.

Um, I'm trying to think of a poem right now that I can say, but I think I I think I'd rather not.

I'm trying right now on the top. I got the pressure to come up with a poem that would be funny.

I'm like, "All right, roses are red, violets are blue."

I like the stock market.

How about you?

Okay, that was bad.

That was so bad.

But it's the attempt that counts.

It's the attempt.

You got to try in life.

You got to try.

When people don't try, they don't have a chance.

Make it about Massachusetts.

Oh my god.

I don't know what the hell rhymes with Massachusetts.

Bitcoin right there.

92.5.

92.5 on Bitcoin.

Where's ETH?

Ethy 35 to 3200, which is leaving BMR at least holding 30.

I mean, the fact that BMR is holding close to 40, I'll take it.

Up from 23 3 weeks ago, I will take it even if we we did get to 42 yesterday as well.

So, it's not horrible here.

It's not horrible at these levels.

Wow.

Tesla 458.

I don't think there's any news on Tesla outside of Elon tweeting yesterday a lot about this whole data center and space thing.

I don't think there's anything specific on Tesla.

I think we got some price target upgrades earlier in the week, but nothing right now.

Rivian is hitting a new all-time high right here.

Uh not alltime high, but new high for the day.

Elon mentions convergence between Tesla, SpaceX, and XAI once again.

Okay, I don't know if this is the reason why it's pumping, but maybe.

Yeah, but it's underneath a comment around data centers in space.

Tesla AI chips, SpaceX satellites, XAI's Gro, you know, I mean, we talk about data centers in space.

You need AI, you got XAI, you need the satellites, you got SpaceX, and then you need the chips, you have Tesla with what they're doing with with the training.

So, you do have a lot of things that could come together to make this happen.

I do want to remind people though, we talked about this yesterday.

SpaceX revenue is $15 billion.

This is why Elon is pumping the space center, the the data centers and space narrative because I don't know how you justify a $ 1.5 trillion valuation with 15 billion in revenue.

Could you theoretically sell that to the public?

Yes.

But it's easier if they have a story outside of Starlink to be excited about and going to Mars, which might not be a story that manifests itself anytime soon.

And that story is data centers in space.

So, I think I think if Elon is serious about getting uh SpaceX to go public, he's going to be really bullish about this narrative and that will probably get a lot more people interested in actually buying SpaceX stock.

Rivian right there, 13% on the day.

So, looks like the street was happy with their news around their AI products and you're getting Rivian to have a decent chunk of momentum right here as it's green.

I don't really understand what they're doing with this new chip.

I mean, we listened to a little bit of it yesterday.

I was going to dive super deep into it.

I don't know how that's going to help them sell more cars or if they're switching from using the the car sales and the the lack of profitability they have on the car sales, which has been five years, they cannot make a profit to something different.

But did Rivian become a tech company yesterday?

Because just because you make chips doesn't necessarily mean that, you know, you can you have a you have the the streets the street can view you as having the potential to generate SAS-like revenue with nice gross margins, which obviously the whole thesis on **FSD**（Full Self-Driving: 特斯拉的全自动驾驶系统）是特斯拉能够做到的。