土耳其的免签政策

主持人: Hello everyone, Sunday, February 1st, 2026. Welcome to episode 1013 of World News. At the end of last year, Turkey announced that it would implement a visa-free entry policy for Chinese citizens starting in 2026. Turkey has abundant tourism resources and is the second member state to implement a visa-free policy for ordinary Chinese citizens.

地缘政治的胜利：叙利亚与库尔德问题

主持人: From last year to now, it may have been the best year for Turkey in terms of its external environment since its independence. Whether in geopolitics or suppressing domestic separatist forces, the Erdoğan government has achieved results. At the same time, Turkey has not yet borne too many burdens, and its economic problems have eased somewhat. It is indeed a good time to travel to Turkey. Regarding neighboring Syria, taking advantage of the Syrian civil war, Turkey launched Operation Peace Spring in 2019, directly controlling 4,000 square kilometers of territory in northern Syria. Subsequently, Turkey continued to support opposition armed groups to attack the Syrian government and overthrow the Assad regime. At that time, the Assad regime was Russia's agent in the Middle East and thought it gained indirect Chinese support. Turkey didn't get much in return. But Russia, in 2022, recklessly invaded Ukraine, bogged down in a protracted war, and even lost its maritime control in the Black Sea, losing the ability to project power into the Mediterranean. It proved that once deprived of imperialist support, the Assad regime didn't even have the ability to fight back. At the end of 2024, Syrian opposition forces took only twelve days to capture almost all important cities and then controlled the capital, Damascus, with Assad himself fleeing to Russia. The largest force among the opposition groups is the Syrian Liberation Organization, which has always been a key target of Turkish support. In addition to providing funds and weapons, Turkey also sent military advisors to help with command. At the end of 2024, before Russia, the leader of the Syrian Liberation Organization announced his presidency. Turkey had already sent its foreign minister, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, with international recognition. Two months later, Jone [new Syrian leader] announced his presidency and immediately visited Turkey to meet with Erdoğan, declaring that the two countries would cooperate closely. Although Jone now holds the title of president, his regime is unstable. In the east and south, there are separatist regimes established by Kurds and Druze people, respectively. The opposition forces that helped him seize power have now become warlords, each with their own foreign backing, vying for Jone's regime to survive. It must cooperate with Turkey's international strategy in the long term. After transforming Syria into a client state, Erdoğan focused on resolving the Kurdish issue. The Kurds are an ethnic group living in the border regions of Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. Originally, they didn't have a strong sense of national identity, but as surrounding countries formed nation-states, the Kurds also demanded their own state, especially the Kurds in Turkey who were forced into seeking independence by Turkey's brutal policies. Starting in 1994, an organization called the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) launched an armed rebellion, carrying out numerous terrorist attacks within Turkey. One reason Turkey wanted to control Syria was to suppress the PKK forces. In 1999, Turkish agents arrested Abdullah Öcalan, the PKK leader. With Öcalan's arrest, the PKK's armed forces mainly engaged in guerrilla warfare in the mountains against the Turkish army. After Öcalan's arrest, the PKK shifted its target to major Turkish cities, frequently carrying out bomb attacks. By 2025, the conflict between Turkey and the PKK had come to an end. In February of the previous year, Öcalan, who had been in prison for a long time, issued a statement demanding all armed personnel lay down their weapons and disband the PKK. In March, the PKK leadership surprisingly announced a ceasefire, stating that they would support Öcalan's demands. By October, the PKK had withdrawn all its armed forces from Turkey, resolving the domestic problem. The next target was the Kurdish armed forces in Syria. In the past few weeks, the Syrian government forces and the Turks have jointly launched another air and ground coordinated offensive, seizing all urban strongholds and a small number of battlefield areas from the Syrian Kurds. The Kurdish problem in Turkey made this especially significant.

俄乌战争中的土耳其立场与能源安全

主持人: It was mentioned earlier that Turkey's ability to control Syria, even Russia's aggressive invasion of Ukraine, forced it to strategically withdraw from all other areas, thus creating a power vacuum. Initially, Turkey actively supported Ukraine, even earlier than the EU and the US. During Russia's attacks on Kyiv, the TB2 drones used by Ukraine to attack Russian logistics facilities were Turkish. In September 2022, Ukrainian President Zelensky personally awarded military medals to the TB2 manufacturers, thanking them for their contributions to Ukraine's resistance against the invasion. Even now, although Russia's anti-drone technology has improved considerably and the TB2's combat capabilities are not as crucial as before, Ukraine remains a major user of Turkish drones. Besides drones, the armored vehicles and rapid deployment bombs used by Ukraine in the early stages of the war were also supplied by Turkey. Turkey provided both financial and material assistance to help Ukraine settle refugees. However, since last year, Russia's offensive capabilities have steadily declined. Turkey's attitude towards the Russia-Ukraine war has changed. Although historically Turkey and Russia have always been old rivals, Erdoğan understands that Russia shouldn't be too strong, but also not too weak. If the Russia-Ukraine war destroys Russia's strength, Turkey will lose important bargaining chips and strategic value in its dealings with the US and the EU. Considering that Turkey has already resolved the Syrian problem, continuing to weaken Russia is clearly not in its best interest. On the other hand, before the Russia-Ukraine war began, Erdoğan and Putin had a relatively good personal relationship. In 2016, a coup attempt was launched by the Turkish military, but it was suppressed by the Erdoğan government. There were rumors at the time that it was intelligence promptly provided by the Putin government that allowed Erdoğan to evacuate the presidential palace in time and avoid being overthrown by the military. A more direct factor that changed Erdoğan's attitude was that the war between Russia and Ukraine was affecting Turkey. Starting in 2025, Ukraine intensified its attacks on Russia's energy industry, with one target being Black Sea shipping. In November last year, two ships near the Turkish coastline exploded and caught fire. The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs quickly issued a statement emphasizing that the attack occurred in Turkey's Black Sea exclusive economic zone and affected local maritime safety. On December 12th, during Russia's bombing of Ukrainian Black Sea ports, another Turkish containership was damaged. While two ships being damaged wasn't enough to make Turkey overly nervous, Turkey's real concern is its own energy supply, specifically the Turkish natural gas pipeline. In 2023, Turkey exported 16.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe through this pipeline, with 8.6 billion going to the pipeline. Turkey itself is highly dependent on this pipeline, importing 21 billion cubic meters in the same year, 4.3 billion more than Europe. In February last year, a Ukrainian drone attacked Novorossiysk in Russia, which is also the starting point of the TurkStream pipeline, nearly damaging it. Furthermore, Turkey is an energy-deficient country, relying on imports for two-thirds of its energy. Therefore, Turkey is more afraid of incidents similar to the Nord Stream pipeline explosion than Europe. So, it hopes that Russia and Ukraine can reduce the intensity of the war. Starting in May, representatives from Russia and Ukraine held three rounds of talks in Ankara. Although there were no significant results, it also shows that Turkey is not content with being merely a pawn of the world's powerful nations and is beginning to test the waters to sit at the table.

非洲与中东影响力扩张

主持人: Besides its neighboring countries, Turkey has not forgotten to expand its influence in the traditional Islamic world. Since Gaddafi's fall, Libya has been actively divided into two regimes: one religiously oriented, controlling the capital and western-supported cities, backed by Turkey and known as the Tripoli government; the other, more secular, backed by Russia, Egypt, and the UAE, controlling eastern Libyan territory and also known as the National Army. Starting in 2020, Turkey directly deployed troops to Tripoli to help the Tripoli government fight against the National Army. Russia also deployed troops to support the National Army, creating a stalemate with the Tripoli government. In exchange, Turkey gained influence in the eastern Mediterranean and established military bases in Libya. Historically, the Ottoman Empire loosely governed Libyan territory, but now Erdoğan's influence over Libya may even exceed that of the former Ottoman Sultans. Episode 1026 of World News covered the Libyan conflict, and at the time, I said that Russia and Turkey would likely maintain the division of Libya while simultaneously engaging in conflict. In the past few years, Libya has remained divided, and no one has been able to resolve the situation. Starting last year, perhaps believing that Russia lacked the capacity to further intervene in the Mediterranean, Turkey began engaging with the National Army regime, hoping to gain more benefits through peaceful means. Episode 1000 discussed how the situation in the Horn of Africa involved another small African country, Somalia. Turkey long ago established a naval base and army training center in Somalia. On the last day of the year, Erdoğan announced an investment of six billion dollars to build a training center in Somalia, compensating for the limitations of Turkey's geographic location and fulfilling its ambition of expanding into the Red Sea region. Reminiscent of the Ottoman Empire's historical expansion along the African coast, Turkey has now penetrated deep into East Africa. Turkey is actively confronting the growing influence of other powers. In the past few years, Turkey has established 37 military offices in Africa and sold weapons and equipment to 24 countries. Kenyan, Ugandan, and Nigerian troops are all receiving Turkish training and have opened military bases to Turkey.

外交棋局：伊朗、巴基斯坦与地区联盟

主持人: Besides Russia, Iran is also a historical adversary of Turkey. During the Syrian war, Iran and Turkey fought a proxy war. These past two years have been difficult for Iran, and Erdoğan has deeper considerations. If Iran continues to descend into chaos, Turkey might actually suffer the consequences. Since the beginning of the new year, Iran has been in turmoil; the officially acknowledged death toll has exceeded three thousand, with the most intense protests occurring in the Kurdish-populated areas of the northwest. Tribal militias have already emerged there. Even during the height of the Ottoman Empire's power, it never crossed the Mesopotamian region to control the Iranian plateau. Erdoğan clearly understands that he cannot seize Iranian territory. So, Iran shouldn't be too strong, and it's also best that it doesn't descend into complete chaos and disintegration, preventing the Kurds from gaining large swathes of land. On January 12th, the Turkish spokesperson publicly stated that the Iranian issue should be resolved by the Iranian government and that they do not want to see any chaos in Iran. Besides direct territorial expansion and military bases, Turkey is also very active in its diplomacy. In the past few years, Turkey's relationship with Pakistan has been very close, with many of Pakistan's attack helicopters, armed vehicles, and warships being Turkish-made. Just recently, news broke that Turkey is preparing to join a strategic defense alliance with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. This alliance is similar to NATO; an attack on any one country is considered an attack on all. If the alliance is truly implemented, Turkey will indirectly gain protection from nuclear weapons, giving it more leverage in negotiations with major powers.

国防工业、航空与电动汽车市场

主持人: In January, the Turkish Minister of Transport announced that Rolls-Royce, a British aircraft engine manufacturer, is investing in Turkey to build Europe's largest aircraft engine maintenance center. The project's total investment is expected to exceed US$2.32 billion and is expected to service 200 engines annually, generating US$1.5 billion in annual revenue for Turkish Airlines. The project will also create 1,000 professional technical jobs, hoping to upgrade Turkey's manufacturing industry. In return, Turkey signed an agreement with the UK last year to purchase 20 Typhoon fighter jets for £8.1 billion, a price significantly higher than usual. Some commentators suggest that the UK is selling the fighter jets at the price of Eurofighter jets. Turkey's focus on engine technology stems from its own plans to sell fighter jets. Last August, Turkey signed an agreement with Indonesia to sell 48 domestically developed TF-X fighter jets for US$10 billion. The engines currently used in the TF-X fighter jets still need to be imported from the US, and Turkey's domestically developed engine is still in the early testing phase. Can British technology help Turkey achieve a breakthrough in engine development? The money spent will be quickly recouped. More recently, Turkey exported 30 Hürkuş trainer aircraft to Spain, each priced at US$100 million. Turkey's aviation industry is making significant gains in Europe. Chinese companies are also investing in Turkey. In 2024, the EU imposed temporary tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, with BYD, a major exporter, potentially facing a 17.4% increase. Turkey saw the opportunity, announcing a 40% tariff increase on Chinese imported cars to avoid sanctions. BYD quickly entered into negotiations with Turkey, expressing its willingness to invest US$1 billion to build a factory there, producing 150,000 electric vehicles annually. In return, Turkey revised its tariffs and no longer imposed additional tariffs on BYD. BYD's quick compromise is due to its desire to enter the European market through Turkey and also because Turkey now has its own domestic electric vehicle manufacturer. This provided leverage in negotiations. Last year, Togg sold nearly 40,000 electric vehicles in Turkey, outselling both Tesla and BYD for several years. When discussing Turkey, people often mention Erdoğan's unconventional economic policy, using interest rate cuts to combat inflation.

经济困境、通货膨胀与腐败问题

主持人: So, how is the Turkish economy doing now? Although there have been significant advancements in military and diplomatic fields, its economy has failed. The term "Erdoğanomics" originated in 2021 when Erdoğan announced that lowering interest rates would reduce corporate production costs and slow inflation. From 2021 to 2023, Turkey's deposit interest rate fell from 19% to 8.5%. The central bank governor couldn't tolerate that any longer and felt interest rates had to be raised. Erdoğan responded by saying that if the governor didn't change his mind, he could be replaced. He replaced three governors in two years. Initially, Erdoğan was lucky; after the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, Turkey benefited from its neutrality, earning significant cash reserves, which did alleviate inflation to some extent. However, by 2023, the Turkish economy finally collapsed, and Erdoğan admitted defeat on economic policy. The central bank urgently raised interest rates from 8.5% to 50% last year. Turkey's deposit interest rate remained high, reaching 38%. However, despite this policy reversal, Turkey's inflation problem remains very serious. In December last year, Turkey's CPI index increased by 30.89% year-on-year, with an average annual inflation rate of nearly 5% over the past two years. Even Turkey's inflation rate repeatedly approached 80%. The same amount of money that could buy meat today might only buy a loaf of bread tomorrow. Now, Turks and Iranians, once they find cash, immediately try to convert it into US dollars, euros, and gold. Some small businesses even refuse to accept the national currency, only accepting foreign currency or gold. Therefore, despite Turkey granting visa-free entry to Chinese citizens, in terms of prices and exchange rates, China is still facing significant challenges. Besides high inflation, the biggest problem Erdoğan faces is corruption. For a long time, the Turkish economy, similar to China's during certain stages, has relied on government-led infrastructure projects for growth. Large local projects such as the Istanbul Canal and major airports have been monopolized by a few large contractors whose owners are almost all relatives of Erdoğan. The 2023 Turkish earthquake killed over 50,000 people and damaged or destroyed more than 300,000 buildings. It was later discovered that contractors, to save costs, had used sand mixed with cement and substandard reinforcement. The specifications were severely substandard; sand contained salt, which continuously corroded the substandard rebar, causing buildings to collapse during earthquakes. Although the Erdoğan government arrested some contractors, the senior officials responsible for building inspection and approval remained unaffected. Many victims of the earthquake are still forced to live in containers with high prices and unsafe housing.

国内压制与全球野心

主持人: Ordinary Turks are unlikely to celebrate any overseas victories. In the 2024 Turkish local elections, Erdoğan's Justice and Development Party suffered a heavy blow; almost all major cities, including the capital Ankara and the largest city Istanbul, were won by the opposition. To alleviate discontent, Erdoğan was forced to promise self-reflection. However, more importantly, he moved to consolidate power. In March, Turkish police arrested Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu on charges of espionage. İmamoğlu was also a strong contender in the next Turkish presidential election. Although he denied all charges, he was still indicted by prosecutors. Late last year, according to the prosecutors, İmamoğlu caused Turkey nearly $4 billion in losses and could face a maximum sentence of 2,352 years in prison. Last year, in September, tens of thousands of Turks protested against the Erdoğan government in the streets, resulting in nearly 2,000 arrests. To this day, Erdoğan continues to arrest opposition officials; 17 mayors have already been detained. More conflicts and protests are likely to occur in Turkey in the coming year. A situation tourists should be aware of is that Erdoğan maintains his rule through force and repression domestically, while pursuing territorial expansion and building new overseas military bases internationally. Chinese people, upon seeing this, immediately think of Japan in the 1930s. From an international perspective, the environment facing the Erdoğan regime is indeed somewhat similar to that of pre-World War II Japan. At that time, the British Empire's global order provided room for expansion for emerging powers. Now, the United States is also relaxing its direct management of the global order, allowing Turkey to aspire to become a major player. Britain and France relaxed their colonial interests overseas. Now, Russia, bogged down in Ukraine, can only abandon its entire sphere of influence in Central Asia and Africa. Therefore, Erdoğan sees the opportunity, temporarily ignoring domestic contradictions, and uses Turkey's transportation hub status to simultaneously expand across several continents, aiming to some extent to rebuild a sphere of influence of the Ottoman Empire and gain a voice in the face of the three hegemonic powers of China, the US, and Europe. However, transforming from a regional player to a global player requires paying a price. While overseas spheres of influence yield substantial long-term benefits, they require astronomical investment in the short term. Even the Japanese Empire, which occupied Chinese territory for more than a decade, failed to convert its investments in Northeast China into military power during World War II. Instead, it consumed resources and affected domestic supply chains. The current Turkish regime is similar. It is propping up the image of a great power with the resources of a medium-sized country, and its expansion spans thousands of kilometers. It is theoretically unclear when its various strategic deployments will form a closed industrial chain. Therefore, unless it can quickly seize oil fields and yield immediate significant returns, Erdoğan's overseas ventures will likely end here. Successfully consolidating what he has seized in the past few years would be considered a success in itself. Thank you for watching. This concludes episode 1013.