霍尔木兹海峡：关键能源通道的威胁
波斯湾是全球约20%石油和天然气的重要产区，涵盖伊拉克、科威特、巴林、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国。其几乎所有的石油都必须经过狭窄的霍尔木兹海峡，而该海峡目前因伊朗导弹和无人机袭击的威胁而几乎完全关闭。这已导致美国、欧洲，尤其亚洲的能源价格大幅飙升。但专家警告，若冲突持续更久，情况很可能会变得严峻得多。
Original English
This is the Persian Gulf where roughly 20% of the world's oil and natural gas comes from. Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Almost all of their oil has to pass through this narrow straight, the straight of Hermus, which is currently almost completely closed due to the threat of Iranian missiles and especially drone strikes. This is already causing major energy price spikes in the US, Europe, and especially in Asia. But experts are telling us that it's likely to get much, much worse if the conflict continues much longer, which it probably will.未来情景预测：冲突持续的影响
那么，我们能期待什么？能源危机将有多严重？我是尤里，拥有经济学博士学位。在本简报中，我将为您总结并可视化地呈现地缘政治专家和能源经济学家关于即将到来的能源危机的最新研究。具体而言，我为您构建了三种情景，并将告知您我认为它们各自的可能性。情景一：海峡将很快重开，但关键基础设施的损坏意味着恢复正常需要时间。情景二：冲突将持续一段时间，因为特朗普可能想退出，但伊朗和以色列不会让他如愿。情景三：一个“黑天鹅”事件，但据称特朗普政府已认真考虑。冲突持续，且特朗普为讨好选民以应对即将到来的中期选举，会禁止美国能源出口。此情景将给欧洲和拉丁美洲带来灾难。
Original English
So, what can you expect? How bad will the energy crisis get? Hey, I'm Yuri. I have a PhD in economics. And in this briefing, I will summarize and visualize for you the latest research by geopolitical experts and energy economists on the upcoming energy crisis. Specifically, I've constructed three scenarios for you and will tell you how likely I think that they are. Scenario number one, the strait is open soon, but damage to crucial infrastructure means that it will take time to go back to normal. Scenario number two, the conflict will continue for a while because Trump may want to back out, but the Iranians and Israelis won't let him. And scenario number three, a wild card, but apparently seriously considered by the Trump government. The conflict continues and Trump moves to ban US energy exports to keep voters happy for the upcoming midterm elections. This scenario would be a disaster for Europe and Latin America.能源产品动态：原油、天然气与精炼产品
但在深入探讨这三个情景、价格预测以及它们各自的可能性之前，我们需要从三个关键的背景信息开始。第一点是，这场能源危机本质上涉及三种具有截然不同动态的产品。首先是石油，即原油，它仍需在当地炼制；其次是所谓的石油产品，如汽油、柴油、食用油和航空燃油，这些已经在海湾地区炼制。最后是液化天然气（LNG），主要用于发电和供暖。目前，LNG主要来自卡塔尔，约90%输往亚洲，10%输往欧洲。
这些数字在短期内才真正重要，因为船只从海湾到日本需要一周以上的时间。然而，之后船只便可以随意前往任何地方。因此，从长远来看，所有使用LNG的国家都将受到影响。毕竟，如果亚洲没有LNG，亚洲买家就会推高价格，这将吸引例如欧洲的船只前往亚洲，从而推高全球LNG价格，甚至包括像美国这样的LNG出口国。然而，对于原油，其动态却截然不同。同样，约90%的原油流向亚洲。但幸运的是，在这种情况下，如果海峡继续关闭，可能会有一些缓解，因为实际上存在两条管道，一条在沙特阿拉伯，一条在迪拜，通过它们，一段时间后约10%至15%的原油可以绕过霍尔木兹海峡。对像我这样的欧洲人来说，可能还有个好消息。并非所有原油都相同。有甜原油（sweet crude oil）和酸原油（sour crude oil）。有轻质原油（light crude oil）和重质原油（heavy crude oil）。这一点很重要，因为欧洲的炼油厂主要优化处理来自非洲和美国的甜轻质原油。另一方面，亚洲的炼油厂则优化处理中东地区的中质酸原油（medium sour crude oil）。至关重要的是，因为这将在后续变得重要，美国的炼油厂并非优化处理产量丰厚的轻质美国页岩油，而是优化处理来自阿拉斯加、加拿大和墨西哥的重质酸原油。这就是为何欧洲和美国的衡量标准分别为布伦特原油（Brent crude）和西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）的价格上涨幅度不如亚洲原油价格上涨幅度那样显著。西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）指数，特朗普总统曾利用这一基准来试图说服美国公众，情况尚未变得如此糟糕。但这具有误导性。对大多数美国人来说，重要的当然不是原油，而是汽油、柴油和航空燃油等精炼石油产品的价格。实际上，海湾国家已经炼制了大量的原油。但现在，载有燃料、柴油和航空燃油的船只也滞留在海湾。因此，正如这里所见，即使在美国，消费者已比西德克萨斯中质原油基准指数（蓝色线）所显示的要遭受更多痛苦。该指数自年初以来上涨了约60%，而美国国内的柴油价格上涨了近100%，汽油和航空燃油价格上涨了80%。这似乎合乎情理，对吧？鉴于我们看到，对于原油，由于美国、欧洲和亚洲的炼油厂都优化处理不同类型原油，全球市场并非完全一体化。但另一方面，航空燃油、柴油、汽油则可以全球运输。因此，普通美国人的保护程度可能不如一些人认为的那样。
Original English
But before digging into these three scenarios with price predictions and how likely each of these scenarios is, we have to start our briefing with three crucial pieces of context. The first is that this energy crisis is essentially about three different products which have quite different dynamics. First, there is oil, crude oil, which still has to be refined locally, and so-called oil products like gasoline, diesel, cooking oil, and jet fuel, which have already been refined in the Gulf. Finally, there is liqufied natural gas, LG, which is mostly used to generate electricity and for heating buildings. Now LG mostly comes from Qatar and about 90% of it goes to Asia and about 10% goes to Europe. These numbers really only matter in the short term because ships take for example more than a week to travel from the Gulf to Japan. However, after that ships can go wherever they please. So in the long term, everyone that uses LG will suffer from this. After all, if there is no LG in Asia, then Asian buyers will just start bidding up the price, which will attract ships from, for example, Europe, which will raise the price of LG all around the world, even in places that export LG like the US. However, for crude oil, the dynamic is quite different. Again, about 90% of crude oil goes to Asia. But luckily, in this case, if the straight remains closed longer, there may be some relief because there are actually two pipelines, one in Saudi Arabia and one in Dubai through which after a while about 10 to 15% of crude oil could bypass the straight of Hermoose. And for Europeans like me, there may be some more good news. Not all oil is the same. There is sweet and then there's sour crude oil. There's light and then there's heavy crude oil. This is important because our European refineries are optimized for sweet light oil from Africa and from the United States. On the other hand, Asian refineries are optimized for Middle Eastern crude medium sour oil. And crucially, because this will become important later, US refineries are not optimized for light US shell oil, of which there is a lot, but rather for heavy and sour crude oil from Alaska, from Canada, and from Mexico. This is why European and American crude oil prices measured by brand crude and the western Texas index respectively did go up but not by as much as crude oil prices in Asia. The Western Texas index WTI crude oil President Trump has used this benchmark to try to convince the American public that things have not gotten so bad yet. But this is misleading. What matters for most Americans is of course not crude oil but rather the price of refined oil products such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. And actually a lot of crude oil was already refined in the Gulf countries. But now ships carrying fuel, diesel and jet fuel are also stuck in the Gulf. Therefore, as you can see here, even in the US, consumers are already suffering more than the Western Texas index benchmark would have you believe, which is the blue line. While it went up by about 60% since the start of the year, diesel in the US is up by almost 100% and gasoline and jet fuel by 80%. And this makes sense, right? Given that we've seen that for crude oil, the global market is not completely global due to refineries in the US, Europe, and Asia being optimized for different types of crude oil. But on the other hand, jet fuel, diesel, gasoline, this can be shipped all over the world. So ordinary Americans are less protected than some may think.战略储备：缓冲危机的最后一道防线
但令人遗憾的是，今天已是高企的价格可能还会进一步上涨，如果冲突持续下去的话，这源于我们第二条关键背景信息：储备至关重要。这关乎战略储备的作用。像日本、中国、美国和欧盟这样的富裕国家都拥有战略储备。中国拥有最多，约13亿桶；欧盟约有5.7亿桶；美国约有4.15亿桶；日本则约有4.7亿桶。合计起来，这占全球储备的75%。但由于例如中国进口量大于美国，这些储备能支撑各国多久的局面实际上是不同的。在此方面，日本是最大赢家，拥有约224天的储备。中国约110天，尽管其储备量巨大。美国为120天。而欧洲国家则仅剩下约90天的储备。到目前为止，各国已共同释放了约4亿桶储备，这使得价格低于若无此举的情况。但如果冲突持续更久，这些储备将耗尽，届时油价可能大幅上涨。
Original English
But sadly, today's already sky-high prices might get quite a bit worse if the conflict drags on because of our second piece of crucial context, which is reserves matter. This is about the role of strategic reserves. Rich countries like Japan, China, the US and European Union, they all have strategic reserves. China has the most about 1.3 billion barrels and then the EU has about 570 million. The US has about 415 million and finally Japan has about 470 million barrels and together that is about 75% of global reserves. But because for example, China imports more than the US, the picture for how many days that these reserves will last for these countries is actually different. Here, Japan is the big winner. It has about 224 days of reserves left. China about 110 days even though it has a giant reserve. And then the US 120 days. And finally, European countries only 90 days of reserves are left. Now, so far, countries together have released about 400 million of these reserves and this has kept prices lower than they would have otherwise been. But if the conflict lasts much longer, these reserves will run out and then oil prices can go quite a bit higher.适应性与供应动态：行为改变与产能变化
幸运的是，还有一些重要的好消息，即第三点：人们可以改变。例如，在2022年欧洲发生天然气危机、价格暴涨时，欧洲人通过调低家中温度、提高工厂效率、多穿毛衣等方式，共同显著降低了价格。同样，像孟加拉国和菲律宾这样没有大量储备的国家，已经通过限制燃油供应来降低了石油需求，例如将工作周从五天改为四天。现在，如果价格因战争延长而飙升，许多亚洲国家可能会从天然气转向煤炭能源，而欧洲人可能会重新大量购买中国的电动汽车。与此同时，在供应方面，天然气方面有好消息，石油方面则有坏消息。天然气的好消息是，美国计划新增大量出口能力（LNG），未来三年内新增的产能约等于卡塔尔的全部产量（占全球供应的20%）。这意味着，尽管天然气价格预计会上涨，但可能不会像2022年欧洲天然气危机那样剧烈。另一方面，对于石油，大部分过剩产能实际上集中在海湾国家。因此，历史上当价格大幅上涨时，海湾国家会通过增产来压低价格。而现在，由于霍尔木兹海峡的关闭，他们将无法做到这一点。我认为，这三点是您了解即将到来的能源危机需要注意的主要动态。亚洲国家受创最深，因为它们的炼油厂需要中东原油。但就天然气、柴油、汽油、航空燃油而言，我们实际上都在同一条船上，因为这些市场是全球化的。储备释放会有帮助，请留意它们，但也要关注总储备量，因为一旦耗尽，油价可能真的会飙升。幸运的是，随着时间的推移，经济体将会在一定程度上适应，学会如何在没有石油的情况下生存。
Original English
Luckily, there is also some good news in the form of crucial context. Number three, people can change. For example, when the 2022 gas crisis hit Europe, a massive price spike, then Europeans collectively reduced the price by quite a lot simply by lowering the temperature in their homes, for example, improving the efficiency of factories and wearing sweaters more. Similarly, countries without significant reserves like for example Bangladesh and the Philippines have already contributed to lower demand for oil because they rationed fuel. For example, by reducing the work week from 5 to 4 days. Now, if prices really spike due to a longer war, a lot of Asian countries will probably turn from gas back to coal energy. and Europeans may actually start buying a lot of EVs from China again. Meanwhile, on the supply side, there's good news for gas and bad news for oil. The good news for gas is that there's actually a lot of capacity scheduled to come online in the United States export capacity for LG. And that is about as much in the next 3 years as the entire production of Qatar, which was 20% of the global supply. This means that while gas prices are projected to go up, it probably will not be as dramatic as it was during the 2022 gas crisis in Europe. On the other hand, when it comes to oil, most excess capacity was actually in the Gulf countries. So, if the price went up by a lot historically, the Gulf countries would bring it back down by pumping more oil. And now, they will not be able to do that given that the straight of Hermus is closed. These three are, I think, the main dynamics that you'll need to be aware of if you want to know what to expect from the upcoming energy crisis. Asian countries will hurt the most because their refineries need Middle Eastern crude. But when it comes to natural gas and diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, we are actually all in the same boat because markets are global. Reserve releases will help. keep an eye out for them, but also keep an eye on total reserves because if they run out, oil prices could really spike. Luckily though, over time, economies will adapt somewhat as they learn to live without oil.关键情景分析与概率评估
But okay, what can we expect concretely? Here are my three scenarios. In scenario number one, the US, Israel, and Iran reach a quick deal which fully opens the straight of Hermoose. This could either happen because overwhelming US military force cripples the Iranian regime or because a country like China is able to negotiate a truce. In this scenario, oil and gas prices will slowly come down from the level that they are now. But prices will remain higher than they were before the war due to a lingering threat of Iran closing the straight again. Most professional economic reports that I've read like those from Goldman Sachs, the International Energy Agency and Deutsche Bank use this as their baseline. But honestly, I think this scenario is very unlikely and give it a 10% probability. Now, scenario number two. The war continues for 6 months or longer. The straight of her remains largely closed. This means the world will run out of reserves sooner or later. But at the same time, the world will adapt somewhat, meaning that gas and oil prices will stabilize at around 200 to 300% of where they were. That's a lot higher. Europe will face the highest gas prices, whereas Asia will face the highest oil prices. The US gets off relatively easy, but still faces around double the energy prices than it had before the war. Just for reference, this means brand crude oil prices will go to around 150 to perhaps even $200 per barrel. I give this scenario an 80% likelihood. Finally, the scenario number three, the energy nationalism scenario where Trump becomes extremely unpopular due to high energy prices. And to somewhat save the midterm elections, he bans many US exports of energy. And since we've seen that especially Europe heavily relies on US gas and oil, this would be a massive disaster for Europe. And while it would probably be very effective at lowering US natural gas prices, it would not fully lower gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices because US refineries are optimized for heavy crude oil, which they do not produce enough of themselves. Finally, not being able to export would of course cost US producers a lot of money and therefore the US government a lot of tax income, which it will probably need to fight the war. So I only give this scenario a 10% probability. But why did I pick these probabilities for these three scenarios? Because the reports that I use for the oil price estimates, Goldman Sach, Deutsche Bank, International Energy Agency, they all use the short conflict as their go-to scenario, their baseline. So why do I think that a long war is now way more likely? Well, there are two reasons. The first reason has to do with the geography of the strait of Hormuz, which favors Iran. You see, there are mountains here everywhere on the Iranian side. So, it will be super easy for small Iranian strike teams with, for example, cheap drones to keep harassing ships in the Strait of Hermoose, even if there are American troops here somewhere. And even if American troops take out the regime in Thran, for example, then it will still be possible for Iranian resistance fighters to hide in these mountains again with very cheap drones. Or they can even lay mines in the straight of Hermoose. Or they can come in with these new naval drones that we've seen all over the Black Sea in Ukraine and that have dominated the Russian Navy there. And this brings us to reason number two why the Straight of Hormuz will likely remain closed. A short war seems increasingly unlikely. You see, so far whenever Trump did something wild and it spooked financial markets, like threatening to annex Greenland, he always made a deal. Financial market traders actually called this the taco trade, standing for Trump always chickens out. And one potential reason why oil prices are not higher right now is exactly this. Oil traders expect Trump to back out when oil prices get too high. However, according to many of the geopolitical experts that I follow, the real problem right now is that Trump is no longer in full control for two reasons. First, he started this war with Israel. Even if Trump can convince the Iranians that he will truly retreat or stop attacking them, he also needs to convince them the Israelis will retreat. And so far, he has not been able to fully do that. However, the second reason is now perhaps even more important. Many experts agree that neither the US or Israel are now fully in control of the war, and that is because they essentially hurt the Iranians too much. Therefore, they don't have much more to lose. And importantly, given that Trump struck them in the middle of negotiations, killed their leader, how can the Iranians trust that he won't just hit them again in a few months? This is why they demanded that the US retreat from all major bases in the region. Which do you think Trump will just leave the entire Middle East like that? Humiliated? Who knows? I don't think so. I mean, he's very unpredictable, but I don't think so. And this is why sadly I think scenario number two is currently the most likely.
Original English
But okay, what can we expect concretely? Here are my three scenarios. In scenario number one, the US, Israel, and Iran reach a quick deal which fully opens the straight of Hermoose. This could either happen because overwhelming US military force cripples the Iranian regime or because a country like China is able to negotiate a truce. In this scenario, oil and gas prices will slowly come down from the level that they are now. But prices will remain higher than they were before the war due to a lingering threat of Iran closing the straight again. Most professional economic reports that I've read like those from Goldman Sachs, the International Energy Agency and Deutsche Bank use this as their baseline. But honestly, I think this scenario is very unlikely and give it a 10% probability. Now, scenario number two. The war continues for 6 months or longer. The straight of her remains largely closed. This means the world will run out of reserves sooner or later. But at the same time, the world will adapt somewhat, meaning that gas and oil prices will stabilize at around 200 to 300% of where they were. That's a lot higher. Europe will face the highest gas prices, whereas Asia will face the highest oil prices. The US gets off relatively easy, but still faces around double the energy prices than it had before the war. Just for reference, this means brand crude oil prices will go to around 150 to perhaps even $200 per barrel. I give this scenario an 80% likelihood. Finally, the scenario number three, the energy nationalism scenario where Trump becomes extremely unpopular due to high energy prices. And to somewhat save the midterm elections, he bans many US exports of energy. And since we've seen that especially Europe heavily relies on US gas and oil, this would be a massive disaster for Europe. And while it would probably be very effective at lowering US natural gas prices, it would not fully lower gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices because US refineries are optimized for heavy crude oil, which they do not produce enough of themselves. Finally, not being able to export would of course cost US producers a lot of money and therefore the US government a lot of tax income, which it will probably need to fight the war. So I only give this scenario a 10% probability. But why did I pick these probabilities for these three scenarios? Because the reports that I use for the oil price estimates, Goldman Sach, Deutsche Bank, International Energy Agency, they all use the short conflict as their go-to scenario, their baseline. So why do I think that a long war is now way more likely? Well, there are two reasons. The first reason has to do with the geography of the strait of Hormuz, which favors Iran. You see, there are mountains here everywhere on the Iranian side. So, it will be super easy for small Iranian strike teams with, for example, cheap drones to keep harassing ships in the Strait of Hermoose, even if there are American troops here somewhere. And even if American troops take out the regime in Thran, for example, then it will still be possible for Iranian resistance fighters to hide in these mountains again with very cheap drones. Or they can even lay mines in the straight of Hermoose. Or they can come in with these new naval drones that we've seen all over the Black Sea in Ukraine and that have dominated the Russian Navy there. And this brings us to reason number two why the Straight of Hormuz will likely remain closed. A short war seems increasingly unlikely. You see, so far whenever Trump did something wild and it spooked financial markets, like threatening to annex Greenland, he always made a deal. Financial market traders actually called this the taco trade, standing for Trump always chickens out. And one potential reason why oil prices are not higher right now is exactly this. Oil traders expect Trump to back out when oil prices get too high. However, according to many of the geopolitical experts that I follow, the real problem right now is that Trump is no longer in full control for two reasons. First, he started this war with Israel. Even if Trump can convince the Iranians that he will truly retreat or stop attacking them, he also needs to convince them the Israelis will retreat. And so far, he has not been able to fully do that. However, the second reason is now perhaps even more important. Many experts agree that neither the US or Israel are now fully in control of the war, and that is because they essentially hurt the Iranians too much. Therefore, they don't have much more to lose. And importantly, given that Trump struck them in the middle of negotiations, killed their leader, how can the Iranians trust that he won't just hit them again in a few months? This is why they demanded that the US retreat from all major bases in the region. Which do you think Trump will just leave the entire Middle East like that? Humiliated? Who knows? I don't think so. I mean, he's very unpredictable, but I don't think so. And this is why sadly I think scenario number two is currently the most likely.经济冲击与全球影响
Meaning that European natural gas prices are likely to go up by almost double to 100, which is still of course far far below uh the 2022 Ukraine crisis. And given that reserves are limited, oil will likely also get far more expensive, perhaps even 150 to 200 USD per barrel, which would be unprecedented, although corrected for inflation, which is what you see in this graph. It would be slightly below still what happened in 2008 just before the global financial crisis. So there you have it. This will be a massive hit to all economies across the globe, especially in Europe and Asia who are the biggest oil importers. It will lead to inflation. It may cause another food crisis because natural gas is a big input in fertilizers. And it may cause a massive currency crisis or multiple massive currency crisis in South Asia because they rely a lot on remittances from the Gulf countries. It would mean airline tickets get much more expensive and of course it would be like a great depression for the Gulf countries themselves. But that was not what this video was about. It was purely about the effects on oil and gas. If you'd like to see a follow-up analysis about these other subjects, then let me know in the comments below. And if you want to dig deeper, I highly recommend you check out the excellent analysis by our advertising sponsor, The Economist, who, as you probably noticed, I heavily relied on for this analysis. Specifically, I got the idea for the third scenario from their article, what if Donald Trump decided to ban oil exports? And for scenario number one, I heavily relied on the article, even the best case scenario for energy markets is disastrous. I highly recommend you go read these articles right after this video. And then to determine which energy scenario is most likely, I think the economists Donald Trump has for bad options for the war is essential reading. As these articles show, The Economist delivers insights to let you see the bigger picture and think for yourself. This is why I almost always rely on their analysis for my research. And it's why I highly recommend that you subscribe to The Economist, which I'm excited to say has agreed to give a special 35% that's quite a lot of money discount for money and macro viewers. Whether you want your daily journalism in the economist's app or you are like me and prefer to catch up on the global economy during the weekend with a nice cup of coffee and the paper edition, you will always stay on top of the latest global developments and signal to others that you care about factual information and the values of integrity and responsibility. So don't miss out. Click link in the description or top comment below or head over to economist.com/moneymacro to claim your exclusive 35% discount today.
Original English
Meaning that European natural gas prices are likely to go up by almost double to 100, which is still of course far far below uh the 2022 Ukraine crisis. And given that reserves are limited, oil will likely also get far more expensive, perhaps even 150 to 200 USD per barrel, which would be unprecedented, although corrected for inflation, which is what you see in this graph. It would be slightly below still what happened in 2008 just before the global financial crisis. So there you have it. This will be a massive hit to all economies across the globe, especially in Europe and Asia who are the biggest oil importers. It will lead to inflation. It may cause another food crisis because natural gas is a big input in fertilizers. And it may cause a massive currency crisis or multiple massive currency crisis in South Asia because they rely a lot on remittances from the Gulf countries. It would mean airline tickets get much more expensive and of course it would be like a great depression for the Gulf countries themselves. But that was not what this video was about. It was purely about the effects on oil and gas. If you'd like to see a follow-up analysis about these other subjects, then let me know in the comments below. And if you want to dig deeper, I highly recommend you check out the excellent analysis by our advertising sponsor, The Economist, who, as you probably noticed, I heavily relied on for this analysis. Specifically, I got the idea for the third scenario from their article, what if Donald Trump decided to ban oil exports? And for scenario number one, I heavily relied on the article, even the best case scenario for energy markets is disastrous. I highly recommend you go read these articles right after this video. And then to determine which energy scenario is most likely, I think the economists Donald Trump has for bad options for the war is essential reading. As these articles show, The Economist delivers insights to let you see the bigger picture and think for yourself. This is why I almost always rely on their analysis for my research. And it's why I highly recommend that you subscribe to The Economist, which I'm excited to say has agreed to give a special 35% that's quite a lot of money discount for money and macro viewers. Whether you want your daily journalism in the economist's app or you are like me and prefer to catch up on the global economy during the weekend with a nice cup of coffee and the paper edition, you will always stay on top of the latest global developments and signal to others that you care about factual information and the values of integrity and responsibility. So don't miss out. Click link in the description or top comment below or head over to economist.com/moneymacro to claim your exclusive 35% discount today.📌 文中提及的人物和组织
公司/组织: Iran, United States, Israel