财报前瞻:社区的期待与祝福
大家好,欢迎收看又一期的 Palantir 财报直播。今天是11月3日,星期一,我们将迎来 Palantir 2025年第三季度的财报。我非常激动能来到这里。我们团队——包括我自己、Matt、Amir、Arie、Suchin 以及这个社区的许多成员——已经关注这家公司四年了。所以我们又有机会再次为大家解读,能有这样的机会,我们深感荣幸,希望大家能喜欢我们的分析。
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All right. Hello everybody to another Palunteer earnings stream. It is Monday, November 3rd. We've got pounder Q3 2025 earnings on deck and I am very excited to be here. I think you guys can hear the sirens in the background. Okay, there you go. They're relaxed. Dude, these sirens in New Jersey have been kind of crazy over the past couple weeks. We're here. We're live. Thank you everybody for being here. Uh this is going to be an exciting exciting show. We've got pounder Q3 earnings coming up. We have been covering this company for the better part of four years now. Now when I mean we I mean myself, Matt, Amir, Arie, Suchin, just so many people that have been part of this community. And so we have another opportunity to do that. Very blessed to be in this position where we get to cover this and uh everyone get to hopefully enjoy some of the analysis.
在财报发布前,我每次都会强调一点:无论股价如何波动,公司本身及其业绩才是我们大多数人真正关心的。我知道这里很多人关心股价,但我认为更多的人是从股价不到10美元时就一直持有的。因此,公司的业绩才是真正重要的。Palantir 的股价已经从低点上涨了20多倍,为股东带来了丰厚的回报,改变了很多人的生活,也确实改变了我的生活。
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One thing I want to start off with and I say this pretty much every time before pounder earnings is regardless of what happens to the stock, the company and the performance of the company is something that most of us really care about. And I know a lot of people here care about the stock, but I think there's a lot more people that have been in this stock since, you know, realistically under $10. And as a result, uh, the company performance is what really matters. Palenteer is now up more than 20 times from the lows. And so the stock price obviously has done very well for shareholders, has rewarded people, changed their lives. It's definitely changed my life. I'm sure it's changed so many of your lives.
对我而言,从 Palantir 得到的最大收获是这个社区。我想大多数人也会同意,除了财务收益,能够共同见证这家四年前被誉为“全球最受憎恨的公司”如今蜕变为“全球最热门的AI公司”的整个旅程,本身就是一种绝对的幸事。所以,无论股价如何变动,我们当然会分析数据和股票,但能在这里与整个社区共同庆祝,我感到非常感激。
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The community is the greatest thing I've gotten from Palanteer, and I think most people would agree as well. outside of the financial gains, the ability to celebrate the journey of covering the world's most hated company four years ago, which now seems to be the world's hottest AI company has been an absolute blessing. So, regardless of what happens to the stock price, obviously, we will be analyzing the numbers and analyzing the stock, but very grateful to be here and very grateful to celebrate it with the entire community.
财报前的激辩:增长能否超越预期?
今天和我一起的,有两位从股价六七美元时就入场并一直出色地进行分析的朋友,以及整个社区的成员。女士们先生们,我们有 Air 和 Matt Money 先生。你们激动吗?2025年即将结束,我们又迎来了一次 Palantir 的财报。
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Joining me today, we got two people who have been in this name since the $67 range and have been doing a fantastic job covering it. along with the entire community. Ladies and gentlemen, we got air and we have Mr. Matt Money. What's up, guys? >> What up? >> Thanks for having us, brother. >> As always, >> are you guys >> Are you guys excited? It's another Palunteer earnings as we end out 2025.
我觉得大家似乎都已经觉得他们会交出一份惊艳的财报。如果他们没做到,我反而会感到惊讶。我的意思是,大家的期望都很高,但他们总能超越预期。不过我现在真正好奇的是,因为股价一直在飙升,我们还能把它推得更高吗?你知道,我们一直在讨论,Palantir 的势头已经疯狂了一年多。大家都知道财报会很棒,但我们能把股价推到210美元吗?我不知道。你还记得上次财报吗?我们都做了预测,比如“它能超过这个数字吗?”结果它轻易就突破了。所以,我不确定这股势头里是否还有动力?这是我好奇的,因为我已经预料到财报会很出色了。
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>> You know, uh I think everyone kind of already feels that they're going to blow the numbers out of the water. I would be kind of surprised if they didn't. And I mean, everyone has kind of high expectations, but they kind of keep surpassing that, but I'm really curious now because the stock has been soaring. I'm kind of curious like is this like can we pick it even further because, you know, uh we've been talking about it like the momentum has been crazy, you know, uh with the talent here for like over a year straight now. Like everyone kind of knows that the numbers will be great, but will will we be able to like push 210? I don't know. I mean, do do you remember uh last earnings we all kind of had like predictions like, oh, will it be able to like surpass this kind of number and then you just like blew past? So, I don't know like uh is is there still steam in this momentum? Uh that's kind of what I'm curious about because I I already think that the numbers are going to be great. Like I already expect that.
我认为这确实是最大的问题。不到三周前,Palantir 的股价还在170美元,我想大概是两周前吧,现在已经到了206美元。所以很明显,在过去几周的下跌之后,我们经历了一次大规模的反弹。我想每个人心里最大的疑问是,我们知道财报会很好,但到底要好到什么程度?市场隐含的波动率是8%,也就是大约17美元,但那是在今天股价涨到207美元(又一个历史新高)之前。所以看起来,股价要么会到220美元,要么会到180美元,但这需要看财报数据如何才能决定。Matt,你怎么看股价的走势,以及你认为财报数据会对股价产生怎样的影响?
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>> I think that is the biggest question. So, Palenter was at 170 less than three weeks ago. Uh I think literally two weeks ago and now it's at 206. So obviously we have had a massive run since the decline over the past couple weeks. And I think the number one question on everyone's mind is hey we know the numbers are going to be good but how good do they have to be? The implied move is 8%. So that's like 17 bucks but that was before we moved up to like 207 today which was another alltime high. So it's looking like either 220 or 180 but we're going to have to see how the numbers plan out for that move to take place. Matt, how are you thinking about the stock price action in particular and uh how do you think the numbers will turn out in terms of having an impact on the stock?
股价的走势简直令人难以置信。是的,我现在正在一个秘密地点的潜艇里进行直播。所以,聊天室里那些调侃我的朋友们,请继续,这让我很开心。但我认为财报会继续表现出色,我很期待看到结果。不过我觉得你说得对,很多人都抱有很高的期望。所以,我有点好奇。自私地讲,我希望股价能下跌,我很想再多买一些。但同时我也知道,这意味着短期内会有人亏钱。所以这是一个很纠结的处境。我每次拿到薪水都会继续买入。但是,这只股票的表现确实非常出色。我认为唯一能解释这一点的是,人们开始真正看到它的潜力,不再把它看作一个“黑匣子”。就像你在开场白里说的,这家曾经最受人憎恨的公司,现在人们开始意识到,它基本上是世界上最重要的公司之一。
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>> I mean, the movement in the stock has been unbelievable. And yes, I am reporting live from a submarine uh in an undisclosed location. So, people that are roasting me in the chat, please continue. It's it's making my day. But uh but yeah, I think the earnings are going to continue to show up well and really excited to see I mean, but I think you're right. I think a lot of people are expecting a lot. So, I'm kind of curious. You know, selfishly, I hope the stock goes down. I would love to buy more, but I know in the meantime, that also means people, unfortunately, in the short term lose money. So, it's it's a tough spot to be in. You know, I'm continuing to buy every time I get a paycheck. So, but uh just the the performance of the stock has been phenomenal. And I think all I can equate it to is that people are really starting to see the true potential of this. And they don't view it as a black box anymore. So, like you stated as your as your intro, once the most hated company people are now starting to realize is essentially one of the most important companies in the world.
利润率与AI叙事:Palantir的独特优势
我们还有一位嘉宾加入,这家伙一直在做我们所有 Palantir 投资者都应该做的事,那就是用赚来的钱环游世界。但很高兴他能再次加入我们的财报直播。Araldo,你好吗?
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>> Uh we got someone else who is joining us that this guy has this guy has actually been doing what all of us as Palanteer investors should have been doing which is like traveling the world with your gains. But happily he's joining us for another pounder earnings. Araldo, what's up? >> Hello. Long time no see. God blessing us with his presence. It's been so
Arie,好久不见。很明显,股价创了历史新高。我把舞台交给你,你对这次财报有什么期待?
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>> Arie, it's been a minute. Uh, obviously the stocks at alltime highs. I'll I'll I'll give the floor to you. What are you expecting on this earnings?
恕我直言,我感觉过去几个季度我总是在说同样的话。所有的焦点都集中在收入上,我们有幸看到了那著名的加速增长。但实际上,在我看来,最大的故事在于利润率方面。因为现在所有的叙事都围绕着AI如何推动增长。是的,这很酷。但生产力呢?现在每个人都想要某种形式的AI。但唯一一家在收入显著增长的同时,又能证明他们能用更少的资源做更多事情的公司,实际上就是 Palantir。
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At the cost of sounding boring, I feel I'm always saying the same stuff in these last quarters that all the focus is always on uh the revenue which we had the pleasure of seeing this famous acceleration happening but in reality the biggest story is on the margin side in my opinion because now all the narrative is on how AI is boosting growth. Yes, that's cool. But what about the productivity? And everybody now wants AI in some sorts. But the only company that is showing a revenue boost that is significant at the same time showing that they're able to do more with less is actually Palanteer.
他们现在展示的交易本身就说明了一切。我们谈论的是来自任何垂直领域的巨额交易,而其他公司,主要是指 ServiceNow 和 Salesforce,只能渴望 Palantir 正在做的事情。我不知道你是否注意到,这两家公司的业绩相当糟糕。他们口口声声说“我们是AI优先”,但当你真正看数字时,你看到的只是10%的增长。然后你再看 ServiceNow,它做得更好,但管理层在财报电话会议上所说的“我们是AI优先公司”所带来的惊人增长又在哪里呢?
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>> And the deals that you're showing right now, I think they speak from themsel. We're talking about deals that are more than massive from whatever vertical while uh other companies just crave what Palanteer is doing. Talking mainly about Service Now and uh Salesforce. I don't know if you noticed that um like the results of these other two guys were quite bad in the sense that they are speaking a lot of oh we are AI first we are here and there but then when you actually look at the numbers this is what you get like a growth that is just there 10% growth and then you go on service now which is doing better but again what is that amazing growth that the management tells in the earnings call we are AI first company what is that
我觉得这是一个很公平的观点。你和我们很多人一直在提出的核心论点是,在一个所有公司都声称AI是顺风的世界里,Palantir 是唯一一家真正在增长的软件公司。你可能会想,第四次工业革命,增长应该很迅猛吧?但实际上只有 Palantir 在增长。华尔街预计他们能达到10.9亿美元,我们知道他们很可能会超过这个数字。如果他们能大幅超越,那么他们就是地球上唯一一家以如此高的利润率实现增长的软件公司。这就是为什么这个故事持续激动人心的原因。
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I think it's a fair point I I think the kind of core argument that that you've been making that a lot of us have been making has is that Hound is the only software company that is growing in a world in which every company is saying AI is the tailwind. You would think okay dramatic growth right the fourth industrial revolution pounder is actually growing and you know they got it for 50% the streets expecting 1.09 billion we know they're likely to beat that uh and if they beat that by a wide margin then they are the only software company on the planet growing with the margins that they're going at and that's why I think the story continues to be exciting.
关键指标:净美元保留率与客户质量
你们认为最重要的单一指标会是什么?对我来说,我有两个,但如果必须选一个,那就是净美元保留率(Net Dollar Retention, NDR: 衡量现有客户收入增长的关键指标,计算方法是(期初收入 + 升级收入 - 降级收入 - 流失收入)/ 期初收入),因为它关系到我们多年来一直在谈论的可扩展性故事。
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What what do you guys think will be the the the the single most important metric? Uh for me, I kind of have two, but if I had to choose one, it would be net dollar retention just for the scalability story that we've been hearing about.
核心理念是你吸引客户,这是我现在第二重要的指标。所以,我不太关心营收总额,我认为现在更重要的是利润率。第一,净美元保留率。如果我们能达到130%或以上,那就真正巩固了整个故事:你购买了 Palantir 的产品,然后不断在整个业务中扩展 Palantir 的应用,用 Palantir 为你的整个业务赋能。这样做,你作为一家公司的指标会变得更好,Palantir 也会受益。这是一个双赢的局面,考虑到他们几乎涉足了所有存在的行业,这种可扩展性可以说是无穷无尽的。
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Uh I mean that we've been having for like years now. Like the the whole core idea is you get customers, which is my second most like kind of important one now. So I don't I don't care too much about topline as as mentioning. I think it's more about margins now. Uh number one, the net dollar retention. If we can reach 130 or above, it really cements the whole Yeah, you get a Palanteer product and then you just keep expanding Palanteer across your whole business. You keep powering your whole business with Palunteer. And as you do that, you have better metrics as a company and Palanteer benefits. It's like a win-win situation and the scalability is kind of endless considering that they're in every single industry that exists out there pretty much. So, I'm curious your thoughts. What you think is like the the number one most important metric that you're tracking?
Arie,你的看法?客户数量,营业利润率,你怎么看?
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>> Arie, your thoughts. Customer count, operating margins. What are you thinking?
我认为是所有因素的结合。我们知道,几年前客户数量非常重要,因为我们当时渴望看到一些动静。现在,是的,获得大量客户显然非常重要,但我们知道这些客户的规模可能大相径庭。我不希望 Palantir 像 Snowflake 那样为了客户数量而拥有10000个客户。当客户数量增加时我很高兴,但同时,我更高兴的是这些都是有分量的客户,他们愿意签署价值甚至高达2亿美元的合同。比如 Lumen 的案例,我们还谈到了波音和国防领域的合同。所以,感觉 Palantir 正在俘获所有行业的领导者。如果所有领导者都乐于与 Palantir 合作,对我来说,在现阶段这比客户数量本身更重要。当然,如果你拥有了领导者,并且领导者的数量在增加,他们还在不断扩大合作,那么净美元保留率自然会扩大,这就创造了所有让我们高兴的强大飞轮效应。
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>> I I think it's the combination of everything. We know that uh the customer count was very important a couple of years ago because we were just craving to see some signs of emotion. Okay. Now, yes, I it's obviously very important to get a lot of customers, but we know that these customers can be of very different size. I don't want Palunteer to have 10,000 customers like Snowflake just for the sake of having customers. I'm happy when the customer count increases, but at the same time, I'm happy that these are customers that matter and want to sign deals worth even 200 million. In the case of Lumen, we were talking about the Boeing uh the defense. So, it's like Palanteer is capturing all the leaders and if all the leaders are happy to partner with Palunteer, that to me at this point matters more than the customer count per se. Obviously, if you have the leaders and the number of leaders increases and they expand, then obviously the net dollar retention expands and that creates all the powerful uh flywheel effects that make us happy.
Matt,这个季度你关注哪些核心指标?
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>> Matt, any core metrics you're looking at for this quarter?
对于这个季度?是的,收入,显然希望看到同比增长52%。还有客户数量。我想 Amir 希望能达到100个。如果能有100个我会欣喜若狂。但我们拭目以待。我绝对认为这很重要。净美元保留率也要保持上升趋势。我希望看到它超过130%,这是我们自2022年甚至更早就没见过的水平。还有很多不同的指标,但我也希望看到美国商业业务继续保持超过100%的同比增长速度。上个季度看到这一点非常重要,我希望这个季度能再次看到。
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>> For this quarter? Yeah, revenue obviously would love to see that with a 52% year-over-year growth. Uh also customer count. Um I think I think Amir was hoping for a 100. I would be ecstatic with a hundred. Um but we'll see. But I definitely think that's uh that's something that's obviously important. Net dollar retention maintaining its its upward trajectory as well. I would love it to see get to over 130% which we haven't seen in in since 2022 or or even earlier than that. Um, there's a lot of different things, but um, and I'd love to see US commercial continue its pace over 100% year-over-year growth. That was huge to see last quarter, and I'd love to see that again this quarter.
政府关门疑云与合同价值的飙升
是的,我同意。我认为美国政府业务的增长将非常重要,同时,净美元保留率和他们获得的合同质量也至关重要。我今天听到一位分析师的观点,说一些政府机构预计到了政府关门,所以在九月底耗尽了大量预算,以确保即使无法正式支付服务费用,也能继续获得服务。这可能在九月底,也就是第三季度末,为政府收入带来了一些提振。这也是一个潜在的利好。但另一方面,政府关门仍然是一个问题。Palantir 在政府业务上有数十亿美元的规模。Amir,你认为政府关门是我们作为投资者至少应该关注的事情吗?
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>> Yeah, I agree. I think uh, US government growth is going to be really important along with the fact that obviously net dollar retention and the quality of contracts they're getting really matter. One point I heard today by one of the analysts was that uh some of the government agencies were anticipating the shutdown and so uh they kind of depleted a lot of their budgets towards the end of September in order to make sure that they have a service coming in even if they can't officially pay for those services. So that could have led to a little bit of a boost in government revenue particularly from the US towards the end of September ending out Q3. Uh which is also you know potential tailwind. But on the flip side of that this government shutdown is still a thing. Pounder has a multi-billion dollar business in the government. Um, Amir, any thoughts on if the shutdown is something that we should be at least curious about as investors for a pounder?
你知道吗,我从未考虑过这一点。我没听说过。如果人们真的说“哦,天哪,让我们把预算都花光”,我不会感到惊讶。但目前政府关门的状况如何?因为民主党最近似乎承受了很大压力,从观感上来说非常糟糕。所以我不知道预计还会持续多久。看起来他们拖延下去在关键领域损失惨重。所以我不太确定。我对于它可能对 Palantir 产生多大影响没有真正的评论。它可能是积极的,他们会说:“哦,该死,马上签 Palantir 的合同。”但实际上,我认为这并不重要。我不认为它有任何重大的影响。这些流程通常是漫长而复杂的,需要满足很多严格的要求。所以我认为实际上影响不大,但我没有跟踪相关新闻,所以不太清楚。
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>> You know, I never even consider that. I hadn't heard that. Um, it it wouldn't surprise me if it was to be the case that people like, oh crap, let's deplete everything. But I mean, um, what what is the current status on on the shutdown? Because it seems that like Democrats are under a lot of pressure lately. like it is a very very bad look like optically. So I I don't know how long much longer it's expected to continue. It seems like they're actually losing a lot in like key areas by like prolonging this. So I'm not quite sure. I don't really have any real comment as of how much it might have impacted Palanteer. Like both it it it could have been positive. They're like, "Oh [ __ ] sign Palent Palanteer contracts right now." But no, I I I don't think it's meaningful. like actually I I I don't think it has some like large meaningful impact. I mean these process are kind of long drawn out. They're kind of strict with uh having to meet uh so many requirements and stuff like that. So I don't know in reality I don't think there's much impact but I haven't been tracking the stories. I I don't really know.
抱歉各位,谈到政府业务,我认为有一点值得我们意识到,也许我们之前没有真正关注到。你们知道第二季度发生了什么,现在应该开始影响这些数据了吗?当时最重要的政府相关事件是什么?
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>> Sorry guys, talking about the government, I I think uh it is worth realizing something that maybe we haven't really took perspective on. Do you know what happened in Q2 that now should start affecting these numbers on what was the most important government stuff that uh happened?
是 Maven 项目,对吧?我们在第二季度签下了为期四年、价值8亿美元的 Maven 合同。所以这已经能推动业绩了。然后我们还有北约的 Maven 合同。我们还得到了一些有趣的客户,比如 XAI 和 TWWG,后者是一个巨大的控股公司。所有这些在第二季度发生的合同现在都应该开始产生影响。所以我对政府业务方面非常好奇。因为当我们开始关注这家公司时,主流说法是公司称政府收入超级安全,而市场则认为政府收入很糟糕,我们想要的是商业收入。但如果实际上政府业务能以50%的增长率持续创造收入,而且我们知道这50%的增长还伴随着巨大的利润率呢?
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>> Yeah, it was Maven, right? Uh so we in uh Q2 we got signed $800 million for Maven for four years. So already that moves the needle and then we got the NATO deal still for Maven. Then we also got some interesting clients like XAI with uh TWWG which is a huge holding. all these contracts that happen in Q2 now should start affecting. So I'm very curious of the government side because when uh we started covering the company the narrative was more or less uh the company was saying this government revenues are super safe. The market felt government revenues suck. We want commercial >> right? But what if actually commercial government side keeps printing money at 50% growth and we know this 50% growth also comes with huge margins.
我很好奇,因为正如你提到的,上个季度政府业务的总合同价值(Total Contract Value, TCV: 指合同在整个生命周期内的总价值)是12.2亿美元,而他们签署的总合同价值是23亿美元,同比增长了143%。这对于第二季度来说简直是疯狂的。但我认为第三季度他们签署的所有合同更加疯狂。当他们报告说总合同价值时,会显示高达100亿美元吗?我很好奇我们是否会超过143%的同比增长率。这已经很疯狂了,但我感觉这个季度会比上一个更疯狂。我认为23亿美元的记录很可能会在这个季度被打破。他们的活动一直非常活跃。
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>> Yeah, I'm kind of curious because um as you mentioned like in uh total contract value uh government was 1.2 2 billion last quarter and in total they signed 2.3 billion in total contract value and that was 143% growth year-over-year. That that is like insane for Q2. But I think like Q3 has been even more crazy with like everything they've been signing like how do they report like well up to 10 billion like how how does that show up for for the for the quarter when they say like yeah total contract value. So, I'm kind of curious if we like blow past like even 143% year-over-year growth is crazy, but I kind of feel like this quarter is going to be even crazier compared to the last one. Like, I think 2.3 billion is probably going to get beaten uh this quarter as well. I mean the activity has been insane.
唯一困难的是,Palantir 真的不像以前被认为是“黑匣子”时那样,需要频繁地在投资者关系页面上发布报告了。那时候他们会不断地发布消息,说我们和谁签了合同。他们必须保持这种势头。这就是为什么 Cramer 当时说,“他们只是一家投资者关系公司,不是一家真正的公司。”如果你们还记得他当时的评论。现在 Palantir 已经广为人知,他们不需要那么多报告。但即便如此,看看我们所知道的,Arie 在财报前著名地分享在 Palantir 公告上的那些帖子,第三季度确实有一些非常大的交易。所以我真的很好奇结果会是怎样。
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>> But the the only difficult thing is that Palunteer really doesn't have a need to report as often uh on their investor relations page as they used to when they were considered a black box as we were talking about. They would like constantly put out, yeah, we we signed a deal with with these people. We signed a deal with with with these people. And um like they had to keep it going. And that's why Kramer said like, yeah, they're only uh like uh they are an investor relation company. They're not a real company like you know if you guys remember his called back in the day. Palanteer is largely recognized now. They don't need to report as much but still even looking at what we do know you know the post that Arie famously shares on on Palunteer bullets you know before earnings it's been some massive deals in Q3. So I'm really curious what it's going to look like.
从被憎恨到被追捧:“芯片与本体”的胜利
我认为这是一个非常好的观点。我们现在知道,几乎所有公司,甚至那些与 Palantir 无关的公司,都想在财报电话会议上提到“Palantir”,因为这能给他们带来声望,也能让投资者至少感到安心,觉得他们在为公司陈旧的创新或数字化努力不足做些什么。我们看到,现在几乎是其他公司在乞求发布新闻稿,甚至不是 Palantir 自己发布,而是其他公司宣布“我们正在与 Palantir 合作”,只是为了让人们觉得“哇,他们可能在AI方面有所作为”,而不是固守已经存在了10、20、30年且毫无进展的旧商业模式。我认为我们已经完成了一个180度的大转弯。
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>> No I think that's a really good point. I mean, one of the things that we now know is that everybody in their grandmother who isn't even a part of the company wants to say Palunteer on the earnings call. Um, just because it gives them clout and it gives them gives other people, you know, the the at least maybe investors calm that they're doing something about maybe their stale innovation within the company or their lack of digitalization efforts or or what have you. But that's something that we've we've seen is that people are almost begging to put out press releases not even on behalf of not even Palier putting them out but companies putting it out that hey we're working with Palier just to get people to say oh wow they might be doing something with AI they might actually be doing something rather than just sitting on the old business model that they've been sitting on for say 10 20 30 years that hasn't been doing anything and they've been losing market share so um I think it's we've done a complete 180
想想英伟达的合作关系,那是在英伟达的网站上发布的,而不是在 Palantir 的网站上。
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>> think of the Nvidia partnership that was released on Nvidia website and not yet on the Palunteer one.
Arie,我正想问你,你当时看到那个合作关系时是怎么想的?
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>> Arie, I was going to ask uh you weren't on the >> We didn't get your thoughts, but what did you think when you saw that partnership, Arie?
我当时就在想,嗯?嗯?“芯片和本体”是真的。我真的想知道那是不是一个没人真正领会到的暗示。
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>> I was that guy. Huh? Huh? Chips and is real. I really wonder if that was a hint nobody really grasped
他指的是这个。Karp 在24年6月说过:“关键在于芯片和本体(Ontology: Palantir的核心技术,它创建一个现实世界操作的数字孪生模型,将不同来源的数据整合到一个统一的、有意义的框架中)。”
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this. And and what he's talking about is this right here. Karp said this back in June of 24. It's about chips and ontology.
市场价值将流向芯片和我们称之为“本体”的东西。我们拥有这个本体,它能让你使用一个大型语言模型,对其进行优化,然后将其应用到你的企业中,遵循你企业的逻辑和安全模型。我们一年多前才开始销售这个产品。我们最初的论点是,我们对大型语言模型的前身及其本身了解很多,而仅仅购买模型的通用方法对企业来说基本上是自娱自乐,代价是企业本身。市场上所有的价值都将流向芯片和我们称之为“本体”的东西。
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>> In the market is going to go to chips and what we call ontology. We have this ontology and the ontology will allow you to take a large language model and use it, refine it and you then impose it on your enterprise in the logic of your enterprise in the security model of your enterprise. And what does that mean for the 70 70 people are here presenting talking about why they're using it, how they're using it. You got to remember we started uh selling this product just over a year ago. Uh we started with the claim that we knew a lot about the precursors of large language models and large language models and the general approach of just buying models is going to be essentially self-pleasuring for an enterprise at the cost of the enterprise. All the value in the market is going to go to chips and what we call ontology.
我的意思是,他是对的。很多价值确实流向了芯片,也流向了那些能够真正整合这些芯片被购买的原因——也就是大型语言模型(LLM)——的软件公司。如果在企业环境中无法整合LLM,那么训练所有这些模型又有什么意义呢?看起来 Palantir 正在做的就是这件事。
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>> I mean, he was right. A lot of that value has gone to chips and it's gone to the software companies that can actually incorporate the reason that these chips are being bought, aka the LLMs, if there's no incorporation of the LMS in the context of an enterprise. What's the point of even training all these models? Seems like that's what Palun is doing.
他总是对的。如果你真的回去看 Karp 以前的采访,当时他的一些话可能听起来非常疯狂。即使是我们曾一度失去希望的那个目标——到2025年底达到45亿美元营收——现在看来也并非不可能,尽管我们当时已经放弃了。还有所有这些金句,比如“当我两年后就知道华尔街会说什么时,我为什么要在乎他们今天说什么?”通常,当 Karp 说些什么时,你最好听着,因为他对于这个领域的大多数事情都是对的。是的,芯片和本体,宝贝。
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>> He's always kind of right. He like if you really go back and watch like historical interviews with Karp at at the time some of might have been like sounding like really really crazy even the one that we kind of lost hope for you know reaching 4.5 billion uh by uh you know 2025 year end like it's looking like like it's not impossible even though we kind of give up on it and like all of these things like yeah why should I care about what Wall Street says today when I know what they're gonna say in two years like all of these golden quotes like typically when Karp says something you probably should be listening because he's been right on like most of the things relating to this space and yeah chips and ontology baby
高估值之辩:市场为何持续追捧?
尽管我们知道需要密切关注 Karp 说的每一个该死的词,但这还远远不够,我们对他的痴迷程度永远不够。
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>> doesn't make you think that despite we know we know that we need to pay a lot of attention on every effing word the carp says there is never enough the level of obsession we can have
是的,确实永远不够。我想再次重申,无论股价发生什么,都顺其自然。过去几天它已经有了相当大的涨幅。现在,市场隐含的波动是上涨到220美元或下跌到180美元。如果结果非常好,但不足以推动股价到220美元,同时又不足以糟糕到引发抛售,那么股价保持平稳我也不会感到惊讶。但考虑到过去几天交易量巨大,很可能会有一些波动。数字会自己说话。但我认为,即使我们能守住205或200美元,我们中的许多人也会非常感激了。
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>> yeah there really is never enough I mean it is has been an incredible journey. I want to reiterate again, whatever happens to the stock is whatever happens to it. It's made a pretty large move in the past couple of days. Now, uh the implied move is either 180 or 220. 180 or 220. So, I mean, it would not surprise me if the stock stays flat, if the results are really good, but not good enough for 220, but also not good enough or not bad enough to make a dump and we end up not having the massive implied move. But given that, given that the amount of volume that's been coming in over the past couple days, there probably is going to be some move. And you know, the numbers will speak for themselves. But I think even if we're able to hold like 205, 200, I think a lot of us will be pretty grateful.
看,根据财务指标,这只股票显然是昂贵的。当我们开始谈论100倍的市销率,而不是市盈率时,我们谈论的是一家非常昂贵的公司。我们在EBITDA、自由现金流等指标上也看到了超过200倍的估值。所以,我个人有一个问题,我认为每个人都应该有:持有这家公司的上行空间在哪里?如果我们想继续投资这家公司,我认为我们需要诚实地去理解它目前的状况,以及市场仍然没有看到的东西。所以,假设你还在投资这家公司,你看到了什么市场还没看到的东西?
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>> Look, um, this stock is obviously expensive according to financial metrics. When we are starting talking about 100x but not on the earnings but on the sales we're talking about a company that is very expensive we see that also in terms of ebida free cash flow call it however you want of more than 200. So the question that I have uh I think everybody should have is uh what is the upside in holding the company? I think we need to be honest into trying to understand what is the state of what it is right now and what the market still doesn't see if we want to stay invested in the company. So assuming that you are still investing in the company, what do you see that the market still doesn't see?
我一直都在说,因为如果你一直关注我们的周报和评论,你会发现 Palantir 的交易价格在相当长一段时间内都处于高估状态。但后来我们遇到了像从第一季度到第二季度那样的情况,公司的内在价值在一个季度内翻了一番,因为我们发现了一些我们以前不知道的事情。我仍然认为 Palantir 还处于非常早期的阶段。我们对它的纯粹可扩展性还没有清晰的认识,但我们有一些线索。我们正在看到整个业务出现前所未有的加速增长,并且我们相信他们还很早期,客户数量甚至还不到一千,但他们仍然能够以惊人的速度扩展现有客户。我们预计仅从现有客户就能实现30%的增长,这还不包括新客户。
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You know, I've been saying this like for the longest time because if you've been following weeklys, if you've been following commentary like uh from from us and and me specifically, Palanteer has been trading overvalued for quite some time, but then we had a situation like from Q1 to Q2 where intrinsic value like doubled in one quarter because we found out something that we didn't know about company. I still think that Palanteer is just so early. We don't have visibility into like the sheer scalability but like we have some hints. We are seeing like this unprecedented like acceleration across the business and we believe they still early like they don't even have a thousand customers yet and they're still like able to scale current customers like uh crazy and we expect that to reach like 30% like just from current customers not not even accounting new ones.
我认为持有它的理由,让我有信心继续持有股票而不卖出的原因,就是我们对 Palantir 的了解还不够清晰。每个人都能认识到它是一家超高质量的公司。我们能认识到它可能是当今世界上最重要的公司之一。他们为我们所见过的金融市场中最大、最受追捧的领域——AI——做好了充分的准备。他们正处于中心位置。是的,它可能很贵,可能被高估,但每个季度,他们的内在价值都在大幅提升,所以我相信仅仅持有它就是值得的。就像 Matt 早些时候提到的,我甚至有点希望它下跌,因为我想以更接近公允内在价值的价格买入更多。但我没有恐惧,我不认为世界上最重要、质量最高的公司之一明天就会崩溃。所以,对我来说,这就是原因:每个季度内在价值的巨大增长。
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>> I think the reason to hold it wh why why I feel confident just keeping shares and not selling is because we simply don't have some visibility enough into Palanteer. Everyone can recognize that it's a a super high quality company. We can recognize that it's likely one of the most important companies in the world right now. They're well positioned for like the biggest most hyped uh sector in the like financial markets that we have ever seen probably like a AI. They're like right at the center. And yeah, it might be expensive, it might be overvalued, but just quarterto quarter like they're just improving intrinsic value just so massively that I believe that it's worth just holding it. And as Matt mentioned earlier, like I kind of hope that it does drop because I kind of want to buy more like closer to fair intrinsic value. But like I I don't I don't have a fear like I don't think that one of the most and highest quality companies in the world is gonna collapse tomorrow like uh so yeah that that's the reason for me like the sheer intrinsic value growth every quarter that passes
你认为分析师和整个市场仍然无法欣赏这一点吗?
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>> but do you think uh is that the analyst the market in general still is not able to appreciate
我认为市场根本不关心 Palantir。我认为整个市场只关心势头和公司没有发生任何负面事件。这就是为什么我认为它涨了这么多。我不认为市场本身会说,“哦,好吧,我们能看到 JADC2 将会……”不,我不认为市场真的关心。我只是觉得它就像那些势头股之一。交易量很大,而交易量会吸引更多交易量,因为人们想继续涌入。所以我认为市场本身可能主要是由势头驱动的,但我仍然认为开始越来越多地了解 Palantir 的人正在增加。所以这有点像双重打击。我是这么看的。
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>> I think the the market doesn't really care about Palunteer at all. I think the market in general just cares about the momentum and the lack of anything negative happening to the company. That's why I think it's been running so much. I I I don't think the market itself is like, oh, okay, we can see that Jet C2 is going to like No, no, I don't I don't think the market really cares. I I just think that it's like one of those momentum names. A lot of volume. Volume breeds more volume as people want to keep piling in. So I think like the market itself is probably mainly momentum but uh I still think that the people who are starting to understand Palanteer more and more are increasing. So it's like a double whammy kind of thing. It's the way I see it.
最后的预测:上涨还是下跌?
好了,我们还有三分钟。我们马上就会得到结果。再次强调,华尔街期望的是10.9亿美元的收入和17美分的每股收益。所以,在接下来的几分钟里,大约4:01或4:02,我们应该会得到数据。
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All right. So, we got three minutes left. We're going to get the results in a second. Again, the street wants 1.09 billion. They want 17 cents of EPS. So, uh, in the next few minutes, like around 401, 402, we should get the numbers.
既然大家现在都成了专业的赌徒,让我们来模拟一下,不用钱,你个人对财报后股价会发生什么下注?
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>> Guys, since everybody is now a gam professional gambler on K on Kali, it seems let's simulate without money like what would be your personal bet on uh what will happen uh at the stock post earnings?
你是说上涨还是下跌?Arie,你问的是这个吗?好吧,在聊天室里写下你们的想法。看涨还是看跌?看,我选上涨。我认为他们会有一个大的超预期。如果因为股价涨得太多而没有上涨,那也没办法。但我认为他们仍然有可能上涨,因为他们可以以相当大的幅度超出预期。Air?
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>> Are you saying pump or dump? Is that what you're asking, Arie? All right, put in the chat. What do you guys think? Pumper. I'm Look, I'm going with pump. I think they're gonna have a big beat. If they don't pump because the stock's up so much, it is what it is. But I think there's still a world where they can pump because they can beat by a pretty hard high margin. Air.
是的,我也认为会上涨。我觉得这个季度会很棒。我很难相信他们不会超出预期,所以我认为是上涨。
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>> Yeah, I'm also in line with pump. I I dude I I think the quarter is going to be great. I have a hard time believing that they're not going to beat uh and I think Yeah, pump for me.
那好吧,我就选下跌,只是因为……不,我本来想说,过去几个季度我总是错的。所以,我一直认为我们会迎来一个转折点。不是因为我希望它发生。实际上,自私地讲,我确实希望它发生。但我认为在某个时候,高估值会产生影响。我只是不认为会是这个季度,但我会选下跌,只是为了当个反向指标。
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>> Okay, then I'll I'll take dump just because No, I was going to say I'm always wrong for the past several quarters. So, uh I've been thinking that we're gonna hit a turnaround. Not because I I want it to. Uh actually, selfishly, I do want it to, but um yeah, I mean I think at some point the overvaluation will get it. I just don't think it's going to be this quarter, but I I'll take dump just to be the um you had the customer service setup. Yeah. Um, yeah, I'll take that.
我对这些家伙会继续表现出色持谨慎乐观的态度。但话虽如此,我认为外面仍然有很多唱衰者,他们只是想看到这家公司失败,天知道是什么原因。不管是政治原因,还是因为他们没在7美元时买入,我不知道。我想说的是,他们总会等到我们因为宏观经济或某些未知原因而出现20%或30%回调的时候。让他们得意一时吧,因为10年后,这些都无关紧要了。他们会希望自己当初在200美元时买了。所以,这就是我买入的原因。我无法判断它是否会回到180美元,但我能说的是,与10年后的价格相比,200美元是便宜的。所以对我来说,我宁愿继续尽可能多地持有这家公司的股票。
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>> I don't know, man. I'm cautiously optimistic that these guys will continue to do well. But that being stated, I think that there's a lot of haters out there still that just want to see the company fail for God knows what reason. Whether it's political or or whether they didn't buy it at seven bucks, I don't know. What I will say is they'll get their time where we do see a 20 or 30% pullback just because of macroeconomics or because of some reasoning that for for for some unknown reason we just happen to have a 20 30%. Let them have their heyday because in 10 years time this won't matter. They they'll be wishing that they bought a 200. So, um, you know, that's why I buy. I can't time whether it's going to go back to 180 or whatnot, but what I can say is $200 is cheap compared to where we'll be in 10 years. So, for me, you know, um, I'd rather continue at least to get as much of the company as I can. And, uh, hold on.
实时反应:财报数据出炉!
好了,女士们先生们,股市现已收盘。
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>> All right, ladies and gentlemen, the stock market is now closed.
现在我们等待结果。数据还没出来。我们应该在一分钟左右拿到。一旦拿到,我们就会开始深入分析。207.98美元,盘后上涨。208美元,208.30美元,还在涨。
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>> All right. Now, we wait for the results. They are not out yet. We should be getting them in about a minute. And then as soon as we get them, we will start diving deep into the numbers. 20798 we are green after hours. 208 20830 it's moving higher.
哦,我们涨了。哦,我们绿了。天哪,我们绿了。这是一个大大的绿色。220美元,221美元。
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>> Oh, we're up. Oh, we're green. We're green. Oh my goodness. We're green. That's a big green one. 220. 221.
是绿的。我还没拿到数据,但它是绿的。
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>> It's green. It's greeny green. It is green. I don't have the numbers yet, but it's green.
好了,我们拿到了。他们每股收益超出预期24%。营收超出预期8%,达到11.8亿美元。11.8亿美元!这是8%的营收超预期,24%的每股收益超预期。每股收益同比增长110%。营收同比增长63%。对吗?我相信是63%。是的,各位,63%。华尔街预期50%,我们做到了63%。
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>> okay, we got it. They beat EPS by 24%. They beat revenue by 8%. 1.18 billion. 1.18 billion. That is an 8% beat on revenue. 24% beat on EPS. EPS is up 110% year-over-year. Revenue is up 63. Is that correct? I believe that's 63% year-over- Yeah, that's 63%, folks. Shre expected 50%. We came in at 63%.
营收多了1亿美元。
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>> 100 million revenue more.
我本来预测他们能做到11.2亿美元。他们实际是多少?
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>> I had them doing one 1 12 billion. What What What did they
11.8亿。
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>> 1.18? They came in at 1.18.
哇,甚至超出了我的预期。
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>> Man, even beat my expectations. That's 63%, right?
这太疯狂了。
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>> That's insane.
是的。
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>> Yes.
绝对疯狂。
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>> That's absolutely insane.
深度解读:“令人瞠目结舌”的业绩
好了,我拿到一些数据了。他们预计第四季度营收为13亿美元,而分析师预期是11.9亿。他们预计全年营收为44亿美元,而分析师预期是41.5亿。这非常接近 Karp 几年前说的45亿的目标。全年调整后营业利润预计在21.5亿到26亿之间,而华尔街预期是19.3亿。第三季度调整后EBITDA为6.06亿美元,华尔街预期是5.02亿,这表明他们的利润率在持续走高。
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>> Yeah. Okay. So, I got some numbers. So, uh f they see fourth quarter revenue to 1.3 billion. The analyst thought it would be 1.19. They see fiscal year revenue to 4.4 to 4.4. The analyst thought it would be 4.15. Very close to that 4.5 number Karp said a couple years ago. Uh fiscal year adjusted operating profit to 2.15 to 2.6. The street thought it would be 1.93. And then adjusted Ebida for the third quarter was 606 million. The street thought it would be 502 which goes to show their margins are continuing to go go higher.
是的,他们这个季度可能轻松超越了100法则,可能达到了110法则之类的。
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Yeah, probably eclipse that rule of 100 like quite handily this quarter like a r rule of 110 or something is going to be
114。
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>> 114.
这些数字,各位,简直是令人瞠目结舌。美国商业收入增长121%。美国政府收入增长52%。40法则(Rule of 40: 衡量SaaS公司健康状况的指标,即收入增长率与利润率之和应大于40%)现在对 Palantir 来说是114%。我与CEO兼联合创始人 Alex Karp 进行了交谈,他告诉我他怀疑这可能是企业软件领域有史以来最好的数据。
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>> These numbers, folks, are I mean, these are just mind-blowing. Revenue now forecast at 1.33 billion. And this is above street estimates too. Full year revenue 4.4 billion also stronger. 2025 free cash flow guidance also revised higher for QC beats in both US commercial and US government. US commercial revenue up 121%. US government revenue was up 52%. Rule of 40 this is a enterprise software metric that gets used 114% now for Palunteer. I spoke with CEO and co-founder Alex Karp who told me he suspects these are the single best numbers ever printed in enterprise software.
Karp说:“我认为这是一个分水岭时刻,那些仅仅沉浸在对自己对 Palantir 的自恋式怀疑中的人——很大程度上是出于懒惰或意识形态的原因——必须真正重新思考。也许本体是塑造性的软件,也许前线部署工程师模式是正确的,也许亲美实际上是一件好事。” Karp 再次强调,那些将在AI领域赚钱的人,要么拥有芯片,要么有能力将原始数据与现实世界连接起来,也就是本体。
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Uh quote, I think it was a watershed, it is a watershed moment where people who are just basking in their own narcissistic skepticism of Palanteer largely for reasons of laziness or ideology have to really rethink maybe the ontology is the formative piece of software, maybe the FTE model, maybe being pro-American is actually a good thing. Karp again saying that those who will make money in AI will have chips or the ability to connect that raw data to the real world meaning ontology.
40%的净利润率,33%的营业利润率。这太疯狂了。每赚一美元,就有40美分进入底线。
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>> I mean 40% net income 33% oper operating margins. That is insane. What the [ __ ] >> I think 40 cent 40 cents on every dollar goes to the bottom line.
让我们来读一下新闻稿。我们的“40法则”得分是114%。这些结果无可否认地证明了使用人工智能平台(Artificial Intelligence Platform, AIP: Palantir推出的用于在企业内部署和管理大型语言模型及其他AI工具的平台)来复合AI杠杆的变革性影响。我们美国业务的同比增长飙升至77%,美国商业业务同比增长121%。我们再次宣布了公司历史上最高的季度环比收入增长,代表着61%的同比增长。
All right, let's let's read through let's read through the press release and then we'll get deeper into the numbers. 114% our rule of 40 score. These results make undeniable the transformation transformational impact of using AIP to compound AI leverage. Year-over-year growth in our US business surged to 77% year-over-year growth in US commercial 121%. We are yet again announcing the highest sequential quarterly revenue growth in our company's history, representing 61% yearover-year growth.
他们做到了6字头。华尔街想要5字头,他们交出了6字头。60%的同比增长。美国收入增长77%。完成了204笔至少100万美元的交易,上个季度这个数字是157,多了50笔。创纪录的27.6亿美元总合同价值(TCV),增长了150%。美国商业TCV为13亿美元,增长了342%。
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So they got a six- handle. The street wanted a five handle. They put a six handle in front of it. 60% year-over-year growth. US revenue up 77%. Close 204 deals at least a million. This number was 157 last quarter. That's 50 more deals. Record setting 2.76 billion of TCV. That's up 150%. US commercial TCV 1.3 billion. That's up 342%.
客户数量同比增长45%,环比增长7%。剩余合同价值36.3亿美元,同比增长200%,环比增长30%。GAAP净利润3.93亿美元,利润率33%。调整后利润……哇,他们突破了51%。上个季度是44%,他们提高了7个百分点。51%的调整后营业利润率。净利润率40%,每股收益21美分,调整后自由现金流利润率46%,为5.4亿美元。
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Customer count, 45% year-over-year, 7% quarter over- quarter. Uh remaining deal value, 3.63 billion. That's up 200% year-over-year, 30% quarter over quarter. Gap net income 393 million, 33% uh margin adjusted income. Wow. They broke through 51. This was at 44 last quarter. They increased it by 7 percentage points. 51% adjusted income operating margins. 61 million uh net income margins at 40% EPS of 21 cents and adjusted free cash flow 46% margin at 540 million
现金储备64.24亿美元。他们之前有60亿,增加了4亿美元。他们现在拥有整个软件行业最强大的资产负债表之一。
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6.4 24 billion in cash. They had 6 billion. They added 400 billion to that. They now have one of the strongest balance sheets in all of software as well.
Alex Karp的股东信:“这仅仅是第一章的开端”
我们仍处于万事之初。这仍然是开端,是第一章的第一个瞬间。我们公司第三季度创造了12.2亿美元的收入,这是我们20多年历史上的新纪录,代表着与去年同期相比63%的加速和超凡增长率。我们还在上个季度创造了惊人的4.76亿美元利润。同样,这也是我们公司历史上的记录。需要明确的是,仅仅三个月就实现了近5亿美元的利润。值得记住的是,公司现在一个季度的利润比不久前一个季度的收入还要多。
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We are still at this very start of things. This remains the beginning, the first moment of a first chapter. Our business generated 1.2 2 billion in revenue for the third quarter of the year, a new record in our more than 20 year history, representing an accelerating and otherworldly growth rate of 63% over the same period the year before. We also generated a staggering 476 million in profit this past quarter. Again, a record in our company's history. And to be clear, nearly half a billion dollars in profit in only three months. It is worth remembering that the business is now producing more in a single quarter than it did in revenue not long ago.
这种崛起让大多数金融分析师和清谈阶层感到困惑,他们的参照系没有预料到一家如此规模的公司能以如此迅猛和不懈的速度增长。我们的一些批评者陷入了一种错乱和自我毁灭的迷茫之中。外界确实很难评估我们的业务,无论是它在塑造我们当前地缘政治中的重要性,还是它在庸俗的金融意义上的价值。现实是,Palantir 让散户投资者实现了以前只有帕洛阿尔托最成功的风险投资家才能达到的回报率。
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This ascent has confounded most financial analysts in the chattering class whose frames of reference did not quite anticipate a company of this size and scale growing at such a ferocious and unrelenting rate. Some of our detractors have been left in a kind of deranged and self-destructive befulement. It has indeed been difficult for outsiders to appraise our business, either its significance in shaping our current geopolitics or its value in the in the vulgar financial sense. The reality is that Pounder has made it possible for retail investors to achieve rates of returns previously limited to the most successful venture capitalists in PaloAlto.
我们是通过真实和实质性的增长做到这一点的。在美国,我们的商业业务在过去12个月里增长了一倍多,增长了121%,在上一季度创造了3.97亿美元的收入。我们业务的这一部分是一个绝对的巨无霸,我们相信它本身将成为本世纪美国经济生活中最重要的商业故事之一。
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Amen to that. And we have done so through authentic and substantive growth. In the United States, our commercial business has now more than doubled in the past 12 months, growing 121% and generating 397 million in the past quarter. This segment of our operations is an absolute juggernaut, and we believe that it will become on its own one of the most significant business stories of the century. and American economic life.
美国企业文化尽管有其特质和复杂性,但仍然是地球上最具适应性的文化之一。我们在美国的合作伙伴,是那些正在重塑人类生活的新型语言模型和使其有效运作的本体的最早、最贪婪的采纳者。他们明白我们脚下的土地发生了多么重大的变化,他们正在竞相试验和进化,抛开那些关于“应该”如何运作的先入为主的观念,转而追求“实际”有效的方法。这是一种无情的实用主义,并正在产生非凡的结果。
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For all of its idiosyncrasies and complexities, American corporate culture remains one of the most adaptive on the planet. Our partners in the United States, the earliest and most voracious adopters of the novel language models that are presently reordering human life and the ontology that allows them to effectively operate, understand how significantly the terrain beneath us all has shifted and they are racing to experiment and evolve, setting aside preconceived notions of what ought to work for what actually does. It is a ruthless pragmatism and one that is yielding extraordinary results.
如今,美国是中心,它必须坚守。对这个国家和其他国家共同文化的共同和明确成功的任何排斥,都付出了巨大的代价。我们确实应该回归到一种共同的民族体验,一种对共同身份的拥抱,这必然会提出某些思想、价值观、文化和生活方式,而排斥其他的。随意宣称所有文化和文化价值观都是平等的,这是一个错误。有些文化被证明是奇妙和富有创造力的,而另一些则是破坏性和深度倒退的。一个更大的错误是相信我们能够或应该将世界转变为我们的生活方式。
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Today, America is the center, and it must hold. A rejection of any shared and defined and defined success of common culture in this nation and others has had significant costs. We should indeed return to a national must return to a shared national experience an embrace of common identity that that by definition puts forward certain ideas, values, culture and ways of living at the exclusion of others. It is and was a mistake to to casually proclaim the equality of all cultures and cultural values. Some have proven to be wondrous and generative, others destructive and deeply regressive. And an even greater mistake is to believe that we could or should convert the world to our way of living.
然而,作为一种文化,我们抵制了对共同信仰或共享文化的一定程度的认同,而这种认同本可以使这种定位成为可能。然而,正是对更伟大事物的追求,对空洞、中立和空虚的多元主义的排斥,将有助于确保我们持续的强大和生存。
此致, Alex Karp,Palantir 首席执行官兼联合创始人
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And yet we have as a culture resisted some actively and strenuously a degree of ascent to common beliefs or of shared culture that would make such orientation possible. It is however the pursuit of something greater, a rejection of vacant and neutered and hollow pluralism that will help ensure our continued strength and survival. Sincerely, Alexarp, CEO and co-founder of Pounder.
分析师的质疑:基本面与估值的博弈
你的调子可能要变一变了,对于 Palantir。
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>> Take for you to perhaps change your tune uh on Palunteer.
是的,基本面坚如磐石。但估值是我们前所未见的,市销率高达90倍。所以你无法用任何估值指标来衡量其实际估值。我们确实从未见过这样的情况。但基本面,我们也确实从未见过这样的情况。所以,把两者分开来看,我们一再表示,基本面依然出色。问题是,这是你投入资本的最佳去处吗?基于所有其他趋势,你可以用15倍的价格买亚马逊,也可以用90倍市销率的价格买 Palantir。所以我们一直认为,在其他地方有更好的资本用途。我们对 Palantir 的判断部分是错的,但我认为在其他股票上我们是对的,考虑到估值问题,它们继续以令人难以置信的高水平执行。
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>> Yeah, the fundamentals are rock solid. The valuation is like anything we've ever seen uh train at 90 times revenue. So there's no way you can put any evaluation metric on the actual valuation. Uh again, we've never seen anything like this. Uh the fundamentals, we certainly haven't seen anything like it as well. So to split the two, we've said uh repeatedly the fundamentals remain exceptional. Uh the question is, is this the the best place to put your capital? Uh based on all the other trends that are going on, you can buy Amazon at 15 times. You can buy Pelanteer at 90 times revenue. So we've been arguing that uh we feel there's a better use of capital in other places. We've been wrong for part of this call on Palanteer, but I think we've been right in those other names just given the valuation concern and they continue to uh execute at at a incredible high level.
如果我们没有可以与之比较的东西,你怎么得出60美元的目标价?
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>> So if we have nothing like if we have nothing like it to compare it against, how do you get to a $60 price target?
25倍市销率,这将是目前软件行业最高的市销率之一。如果你看整个行业,无论是 Cloudflare 还是 CrowdStrike,这些都是创造巨大回报的优秀公司,它们的交易市销率就是这个水平。所以你必须假设这种执行力会持续多年,市销率才会下降。我们从未见过90倍的市销率。看看数据,为什么股价是平的?因为它平是因为市销率太高,没有真正的市销率扩张空间了。
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>> 25 times uh revenue, which would be one of the highest multiples in software right now. If you look across the entire industry, the highest multiple in our industry, whether it's Cloudflare, Crowd Strike, these are phenomenal companies that are producing huge returns that trade at those multiples. And so you have to assume that this execution continues consistently for years uh for that multiple to come down. We've never seen a 90 multiple. And look at the numbers. Why is the stock flat? because it's flat because the multiple is so high and there's no real room on the multiple expansion to go,
散户投资者可以下注,因为他们并不真正了解估值。他们不知道它的交易情况。你可以看到,第二高估值的公司,比如 Cloudflare 或 CrowdStrike,与 Palantir 之间有60个点的市销率差距。所以这是一个我们感觉不舒服的数字。
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>> The retail investor can bet because they don't really know the valuation. They don't know it trades. You can literally take a 60 point multiple between the second highest rate uh uh uh name which is Quadflare Crowd Strike. Uh and the gap between that and Palunteer is like 60. So that it's a it's just it's a it's a it's a number that we don't feel comfortable with.
Arie,你对 Brent 的话有什么看法?
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>> Arie, your thoughts on what Brent said?
我能理解他的观点,因为当我只是一个分析师时,我的推理方式也像他一样。所以当你和机构客户交谈时,他们会告诉你,好吧,但当有其他选择时,我为什么要买这个?而那些替代品对他来说是更好的,更容易理解的。对于 Palantir,我相信如果你没有完全抓住它的业务有多么疯狂,你最好就闭嘴,不要假装知道。因为他提到的所有其他公司都无法展示 Palantir 正在做的事情。无论是在产品层面,还是在财务层面——这是他应该理解的——都做不到。
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>> Uh, sorry. Okay. I can't understand his point because uh I was reasoning like him when I was just an analyst. So when you talk with institutional clients you they will tell you okay but why should I buy this when there are other alternatives and the alternatives are stuff that for him are better are easier to understand with Palunteer I believe uh that if you haven't captured exactly how insane the business is you should better just shut up and not pretending to know stuff because uh the all the other companies that he mentioned are not able to show what Palanteer is doing. He's not able to show neither at the product level neither at a financial level which is something he should understand.
他提到的、他喜欢的其他公司,无法在增长这么多的同时还扩大边际利润。我一直坚持认为这是黑魔法。我们可以给这个黑魔法起个名字,就是能够有效地将AI部署到自己和客户身上,而所有其他公司都没有做到这一点。想象一下,即使没有 Palantir 正在实现的利润率扩张,仅仅看到收入的这种加速增长就已经很疯狂了。利润率在这些年里基本上翻了一倍多,同时还有大量的增长,这简直是超乎想象。这就像资本的投资回报率是无限的。
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>> The other companies that he mentions the ones he likes are not able to to grow this much while also expanding the margin. The stuff that I keep insisting that is black magic. we can give it a name to this black magic as being able to deploy AI effectively to yourself to your clients and uh all the other companies are not doing that. Imagine this already without the multiple sorry the margin expansion that paner is having seeing these acceleration in the revenue is already crazy. The fact that the margins essentially more than doubled in these years while having a lot of growth is just out of the mind. It's like having an infinite return on investment on the capital
是的,它是一个完全的异类。你如何为一个异类定价?用一个异类的价格。
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>> it's it's a complete outlier. How do you price an outlier with an outlier price?
财报电话会议:Karp的激情演讲与未来展望
按照任何正常甚至合理的标准,这些都不是正常的结果。这些甚至不是强劲的结果。这些不是非凡的结果。这些可以说是任何软件公司有史以来交付的最好的结果。这并非夸大其词,尽管你的分析师朋友可能想让你相信别的,因为他们在每个价位上都错了。他们在每一轮都错了。
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>> Uh, greetings. Um, by any normal or even reasonable standard, these are not normal uh, results. These are not even strong results. These aren't extraordinary results. These are arguably the best results that any software company has ever delivered. Um, and uh, and it's that's not hyperbolic. despite what your analyst friends may want you to believe because they've been wrong at every price. They're wrong on every at every single round.
一家正常的企业级公司,其“40法则”不应该超过100。一家正常的企业级公司,在我们的规模基础上,其美国商业增长不应该超过100%。美国业务不应该有77%的增长。顺便说一下,这个增长还被停滞不前的欧洲拖累了,而欧洲仍然是我们业务的重要组成部分。所以,纯粹、未经修饰的数字是,在一个巨大的、重要的基础上实现了77%的增长,伴随着非常可观的现金流,公司的“40法则”达到了114。
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But um a a a normal enterprise company should not have a rule of 40 above 100. A normal enterprise company at our base should not have over 100% US commercial growth. Should not have 77% growth in the US. uh and by the way that uh that growth is being held down by a stagnant Europe which is still a significant part of our business. So the pure uh unvarnished numbers are 77% growth off of a massive significant base with very significant cash flow with a company that throws off a rule of 40 of 114.
我们与客户建立了直接的联盟。这意味着什么?这意味着当我们的客户有一种独特和部落式的方式来做某件事时,无论是承保、战斗还是让工人更有价值,我们都会部署一个前线部署工程师(Forward Deployed Engineer, FDE: Palantir的特殊职位,负责深入客户现场解决实际问题,并将反馈带回产品开发),我们在本体中进行协调。我们获取他们业务的部落式理解,他们业务的特殊性,这使他们变得独特、有价值和致命,我们赋予其力量。我们如何参与其中?我们处于价值创造的下游。所以当你看到141%或77%或63%的增长时,你会问,顺便说一下,我们的劳动力增长与此完全不成线性比例,销售团队还在萎缩,这似乎不可能。之所以能行,是因为我们正在为客户创造更多利润,或者让他们在战场上更具主导地位,而他们支付给我们的是其中的一部分。
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In order that you turn the value the high value uh uh revenue of your enterprise over to them in return for for these accolades. We created direct alignment with our customers. And what does that mean? It means when our customers have a unique and tribal way of doing something, whether it's underwriting or fighting or making workers even more valuable, we put an FDA, we orchestrate it in ontology. We take the tribal understanding of their business, the specific nature of their business that makes them particular and valuable and lethal, and we empower that. And how do we participate in that? Unlike seemingly in the most obvious way, we are downstream from the value creation. So when you see 141 or you see 77% or 63 and you ask and by the way with really a a a workforce that is uh not growing in any way linearly proportional to that growth and also with a sales force which is declining which seems improbable. The reason why that's working uh is because we are making our clients more money or we're making them more dominant on the battlefield and they're paying us a subset of that.
我想说,如果你在考虑这家公司将如何发展,看看我们创造价值的能力。看看我们创造顶线收入的能力。看看我们业务的单位经济效益。如果你是评估业务的技术专家,将这些数字与你见过的任何其他业务进行比较,然后做出你的决定。但是,是的,我非常热情。我认为我们都非常热情。
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>> But I would say if you're thinking about how this company is going to go, look at our ability to value create. Look at our ability to create revenue on the top end. Look at it. Let look at the unit economics of our business. If you're a technical expert in in how do you evaluate business, evaluate those numbers against any other business you've ever seen and then make your decision. But yeah, I'm wildly enthusiastic. I think we're wildly enthusiastic and um and thank you for uh those of you who stay stayed with us to enjoy these numbers, especially Palunteerians uh who work day and night to deliver these kind of numbers.
问答环节:加速的销售周期与AI智能体
Dan Ives:我的问题是,你们能否详细谈谈从许多参加了训练营(boot camps)的公司那里看到的加速的销售周期?从他们第一次接触你们,到现在实际启动交易,有什么让你们感到惊讶的地方?
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>> Yeah, great. Look, obviously another monster quarter for you guys. Congrats. Um, so my my my question for you is, you know, for Alex and team. What can you just walk through just the accelerated sales cycles that you're seeing from so many companies that have gone to the boot camps? Like what surprised you from when they come to you at that first sort of you know contact to now actually launching deals? I mean you know maybe you could talk about that just in terms of everything you're seeing anecdotally.
Ryan Taylor:谢谢 Dan。我们看美国商业业务,我们完成了13亿美元的TCV,按美元加权期限计算,比一年前增长了6倍。在这些交易中,83个价值100万美元或以上,40个价值500万美元或以上,21个价值1000万美元或以上。现在发生的情况是,从高管层到整个公司,客户来找我们,不仅仅是说“我们来做一个用例”。那些我们产生影响的客户来找我们说:“我们如何将这个部署到整个组织?我们如何围绕 Palantir 和 AIP 重组整个组织?”这就是正在发生的事情。
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>> Great. Thanks Dan. So I think you know we look at US commercial we closed 1.3 billion in TCV that's 6x on a dollar weighted duration basis from what it was a year ago and of those deals 83 were worth a million or more 40 were 5 million or more 21 deals were $10 million or more I've been involved in a lot of those directly I'm feeling exactly what you're asking on the ground from customers and what's what's happening now is from the seuite across the company customers are coming to us looking to not just say let's do a use case the customers where we're having the impact are coming to us saying how do we deploy this across our entire organization how do we reorganize our entire organization around Palunteer and AIP and that's what's happening on the ground and we're singularly focused on delivering the value to the customers and that's our go to market how do we get the product to them and deliver the value
Alex Karp:我们看到的最大转变是,接触我们的客户很快就想转向“我该如何改变我的企业,以最有价值的方式在你们的产品中表达出来”,然后希望重组。我们经常用的一个简略说法是,你过去必须把你的公司私有化才能改变它的单位经济效益。就像我们为普通投资者提供高端风险投资回报一样,我们实际上在企业中做的是在公开市场、在现有领导下提供类似私募股权的转型。
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>> where Ryan is like really very much on the front line here is you know there's both how many customers approach you I think where we're seeing the biggest shift is the customers who've approached us very quickly want to move to how would I change my enterprise to express it in a way that's most valuable according to my terms in your product and then want to and literally want to reorg a shorthand version that we often use is you used to have to take your company private to change the the unit economics of it basically just like we're providing venture results high-end venture results to normal investors in the last couple years what we're doing actually in enterprises is providing a private equity-like transformation in the public art markets in the public space under the current leadership.
会后总结:一场无可争议的胜利
有人在聊天室里写道,我想大家都注意到了,他写道:“我精确地数了一下,在他开场演讲中,他敲了114次桌子。”他坐着,把那张桌子敲得震天响。
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So, someone wrote in the chat like during I I I I think everyone uh know noticed this as well, but someone wrote uh I counted exactly 114 table banks throughout you know his opening speech. He was sitting and banging the the heck out of that table. No. Um
我们之前预测了 Dan Ives 的问题,又是一个关于训练营转化率的问题,没有得到真正的回答。不太重要。我认为最重要的两个问题当然是,AI FDEs 到底怎么样了。他们实际上开始给出一些相关的数字,这是我喜欢的。他们说,派出一支 AI FDEs 军队,在5天内完成了一个传统数据仓库的迁移,而这本来需要两年时间。每个人都能理解两年到五天,这是非常显著的。
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>> uh well, we kind of predicted that nice question. Another boot camp conversion one uh wasn't really answered. Not not too important. I think the two the two biggest ones was of course to see okay what is happening with AFDs I mean it's it's been a topic for a while uh there have been some demos out out into the public some kind of you know there have been some some whisperings but you know they actually start to give us some kind of numbers like associated with it which is what what I love you know I always say this that people don't always understand you know where Palanteer is implemented they don't always understand the use cases at a specific But everyone understands time when they say that uh you know uh spawning an army to uh you know of a fds to transform a legacy data warehouse in 5 days that would have taken two years like everyone can understand that two years to five days that is pretty significant
我还想强调一下最后一个问题,它让我想起了我们刚才看的 Jefferies 分析师 Brent Thill 的采访。当 Karp 说:“打开传统电视,看看那些没有投资我们的人在哭泣。”如果你还记得 Brent Thill 的脸,他看起来就像快要哭了。他看起来很生气,坐在 CNBC 的演播室里。那真是太神奇了。
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>> um I also uh want to highlight um the last question there it just made me like picture Brent still just you know the the interview we we watched with the Jeff analyst just before when He said, "Um, yeah, turn on conventional TV and watch those who didn't invest into us cry." And then if you guys remember Brent Thiel's face, he kind of looked like he was about to cry. Like he looked pretty pissed off, you know, just sitting there on CNBC. Uh, it was magical.
最让我感兴趣的是看到 FDEs 的演变,现在 AI FDEs 从我们理解的情况来看,赋能了 FDEs 本身,然后是客户。这真正体现了缩短时间的语言。我前几天真的在想,想象一下你是一个客户,一个客户打电话给你,你怎么能非常快地展示你能做什么,你能解决什么问题。他们基本上用这个新产品 AI Hive Mind 描述了这一点,它是一个聚合器,聚合了 AI FDEs 或类似代理来解决问题。
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The thing that intrigued me the most is um seeing the evolution of FDS, the AI FDs that now empower from what we understand the FD themselves and then the clients. That is uh what really talks the language of shrinking time to the point where I was really wondering the other day. Imagine you are a parent, you you are called by a client how you can really show what you can do, what you can tackle very fast. And essentially they described that with this new product AI hive mind which is an aggregator to of Aifds or similar agents to tackle problems.
我认为有一个关于现有客户的评论也很有趣。他们提到前20大客户——我计算了一下,911个客户中仍有20个客户占了收入的43%——并且他们的增长速度正在加快。前20大客户占了近一半的业务,他们现在的同比增长率是38%,高于净美元保留率。所以最稳定、最有价值的客户的增长速度高于整体净美元保留率。电话会议中有人问:“你们是怎么做到这样规模化的?” 有一个回答,我不记得原话了,但大意是:“我们拥有AI市场中关心价值创造的那部分。”
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>> I also think there were some uh interesting comments regarding like uh the the current customers. So they mentioned that the top 20 customers uh I I did the calculations uh still 20 out of 911 customers account for 43% of revenues and they are accelerating like how much they're growing 20 like the top 20 customers account for almost half the business and they are now growing uh 38% year-over-year which is higher than the net dollar retention. So the most sticky like most like revenue highest value clients are growing higher than like uh uh the overall net dollar retention and then the question came up in in the call like well h how are you able to scale like this and uh there there was a I don't remember the exact quote but it was something along the lines of we own part of the AI market that cares about value creation.
我认为 Karp 在电话会议上非常兴奋。我认为他兴奋的原因与股票无关。坦率地说,这与本季度业绩斐然有关,而股票会怎样就怎样。我的意思是,它现在在202美元。我们很多人在它低于10美元时就开始关注了。所以很难对“哦,它没到220美元”抱有太多同情。如果你分析的深度仅限于此,那随你。但如果你真的打算持有这家公司10年,并且关注的不是股票的回报——这已经远远超过了整个市场的大多数股票——而是他们交出的业绩,那么我也会像 Karp 一样充满活力。当你拿出114%的“40法则”得分、77%的美国商业增长、没有债务、65亿美元现金,以及63%的营收增长时,这些数字简直令人难以置信。
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Yeah, I agree. I I I pretty much agree with everything you guys said. I thought Karp was very excited on the call and uh I think the reason he was excited was has nothing to do with the stock. Quite frankly, it had to do with the fact that this quarter was incredible and the stock will do whatever the stock does. I mean, again, it's at 202. A lot of us were covering this name below was $10. So, it's hard to have a lot of sympathy for the oh, it's not at 220. It's like, okay, that's fine. If that's the extent of your analysis, then then you can have that. But if you're actually holding this company for the next 10 years and you're looking at not the returns of the stock, which have been far beyond most stocks in the entire market, but actually looking at the results they put out, I mean, I would be as energetic as Karp as well if you're pulling up 14% rule of 40s, 77% US commercial growth, no debt, 6 and a half billion in cash, uh, and topline revenue growth of 63%. I mean, these numbers are just incredible.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
人物: Alex Karp, Matt Money, Michael Burry, Dan Ives, Jim Cramer, Jensen Huang, Donald Trump
公司/组织: Palantir, ServiceNow, Salesforce, Snowflake, Nvidia, Cloudflare, CrowdStrike, XAI, Lumen, Boeing, NATO, Jefferies, Bank of America, Wedbush, US Army
产品/模型: AIP, Foundry, Vantage, Golden Dome
媒体/书籍: Financial Times, The Washington Post, Fortune