AI 驱动下的软件开发范式转移:超越敏捷的新篇章
大家好,早上好。非常高兴能来到这里。我是 Martin,我的同事 Natasha 也在。我们来自麦肯锡(McKinsey)一个大家可能不太熟悉的部分。我们有一个名为“软件 X”(Software X)的业务部门,主要与大型企业客户合作,探讨如何构建更好的软件产品,尤其是在过去几年中,大量运用了人工智能(AI)。我们今天的谈话将更侧重于利用 AI 进行软件开发时涉及的人员和运营模式方面。我们相信,这方面需要发生显著的变化,而这正是我们乐于与大家分享的内容。
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Good morning. Hello everyone. It's really great to be here. Uh so I'm Martin and I'm here with my colleague Natasha. Uh we're from a part of Mckenzie. you may may not be as familiar with. We have a practice called software X and we work with uh mostly enterprise clients on how to build better software products which has messed mostly using AI uh in the in the past couple of years.
AI 带来的范式转变
如果我们回顾一下过去几十年我们看到的一些重大的技术突破,它们往往伴随着软件开发方式的范式转变。我还记得将近 20 年前,我开始在一家科技公司担任软件工程师,一名入门级开发人员。我当时工作的公司刚刚转向敏捷开发,我们使用看板(Kanban boards)、站会(standups)和其他仪式。这对公司来说是一个巨大的、颠覆性的改变。而现在,随着人工智能(AI)领域发生的这一切,我们正处于又一次这样的范式转变的边缘。
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Uh and so what our talk is about today is really more focused on the people and the operating model aspects of leveraging AI for software development and and that we believe that that has to change quite significantly and and that's what we're excited to talk to you about. If I take a quick step back uh in in time and we just uh you know think through some of these the major technology breakthroughs that we've seen in the last few decades uh they tend to always come with a paradigm shift in also how we develop software and so I still recall uh almost 20 years ago now I started working as a software engineer an entry- level developer um in a tech company and the company I was working for was just switching to to agile we were using camb boards we were uh standups and and other ceremonies. This was a big change. It was a massive change for the for the company. And now with everything that is happening happening in AI, we're at the precipice of another such paradigm shift.
个人生产力到规模化价值的鸿沟
我们在这个会议上看到,AI 在软件开发领域所带来的影响毋庸置疑,这确实是一个新的范式。我们将讨论两件事:首先,我们如何将目前看到的个人生产力提升,扩展到整个团队,以及我们认为这会带来什么样的变化;然后,我们将讨论如何将其扩展到整个组织,以真正实现价值。
如果你是那些一直使用 AI 代理(AI agents - 能够自主执行任务或响应指令的软件程序,通常利用人工智能技术)的人,我敢肯定你能举出 10 个不同的例子,你会说:“看,我过去做的一件事,曾经需要好几天甚至几个小时,现在只需要几分钟了,对吧?这样的故事比比皆是。你可以去展区与任何一家公司交流,了解所有这些很棒的用例。这确实表明这些工具是有效的,并且可以产生巨大的影响力。”
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And um if we think about some of the um some of the things that are happening um with AI and software development that we've seen at this um at this conference, there's no doubt that this is a new paradigm that is about us. And so we'll talk about two things. uh we'll first touch a little bit about how do you go from these things that we're seeing at individual productivity to scaling that to the whole team and what that what type of changes we think that implies and then we'll talk a little bit uh about how do you scale that across uh a whole organization and to really get get value um if if you sort of I'm talking to an audience here which is using a agents all the time and I thought if I If I asked you about some examples, I'm sure you could rattle off, you know, 10 different ones where you would say, "Look, there was this thing that I used to do. It it used to take uh maybe even days and and and hours that are now taking only minutes, right? There's no shortage of those those stories and you can go over to the expo and and talk to any of the companies there about all these all these great use cases. It really shows that these tools work and they can be really impactful."
然而,尽管看到了这些改进,我们进行了一些研究来评估我们的客户目前处于什么水平。我们最近调查了大约 300 家公司,主要是大型企业,了解他们在生产力提升方面看到了什么。结果是,他们平均看到的整体公司生产力提升仅为 5%、10%、15%。所以,我们正处于一个 AI 的巨大潜力与现实之间存在脱节的境地。
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And so yet despite seeing, you know, some of these uh improvement uh improvements uh we've done some research to gauge, you know, where are our clients at the moment. We we recently surveyed about 300 uh companies uh mostly enterprises around what are they seeing in terms of productivity improvements. So you have this and then they would say uh on average we're often seeing only 5, 10, 15% improvements overall as as a company. So we're in a place where there's a bit of a disconnect between this this big potential uh around AI as uh from the reality.
新的瓶颈正在出现
我们认为这种差距之所以存在,是因为当我们开始实施 AI 时,无论是编码辅助,还是使用像你刚才听到的关于 OpenAI 如何使用代理和更复杂的 AI 工作流,都开始出现一系列我们以前不一定遇到的瓶颈。例如,当我们开始在某些工作方面加速时,我们并没有真正改变我们人与人之间、团队成员之间的协作方式。这并没有跟上步伐。我们开始生成更多的代码,但在许多公司,代码审查仍然是以一种相当手动的方式进行的,对吧?
此外,还有一个主题最近在卡内基梅隆大学(Carnegie Mellon University)的一份研究报告中被重点强调:新生成的代码也在某些情况下放大了技术债(Tech debt - 指在软件开发过程中为了快速交付而做出的妥协或选择,这些妥协在未来可能需要额外的工作来修复和改进)的产生,并实际增加了复杂性。因此,存在这些瓶颈。它们并非不可克服,但这正是我们认为限制了许多公司看到应有价值的原因。
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And so we we think that um there is this gap because as we've started implementing AI, whether it's um you know coding assistance or whether it's now using you know you just heard about uh you know how open AI is using agents and more complex uh workflows, what has started to emerge is a is a set of bottlenecks uh that that were not necessarily there before. Like for for example, as we now start moving much faster in certain in certain aspects of the work, uh we haven't really changed how we collaborate among people and and team members. That's not quite keeping up. We started generating way more more code, but we're it's still being reviewed in a in a pretty manual way in in many companies, right? And then we also have this this theme which was recently highlighted in in even a research report from from Carnegie Melon uh about how all the new code that is being generated is also amplifying uh the generation of tech debt in some in some cases and actually generating complexity. And so there are these bottlenecks. They're not impossible to overcome but this is what we believe is limiting uh many companies from seeing the the the real value that that they should be seeing.
工作分配与代码审查的挑战
让我举几个例子,让这些问题更具体一些。目前,工作分配是导致效率低下的一个主要因素。我们在过去几年中学到的是,AI 和代理(AI agents)带来的影响非常不均衡。有些任务今天效果惊人,你会看到巨大的改进;而有些任务则效果不那么显著。所以存在这种差异性。人们之间也存在差异性。有些人现在使用这些工具已经很有经验,知道如何上手;而另一些人则经验较少。
这对团队领导者、工程经理等意味着什么呢?他们很难知道如何以一种好的方式分配工作和资源。这造成了很多低效率。
另一个例子是关于工作如何被审查。代理(AI agents)经常被赋予相当模糊的、用散文写成的、验收标准(Acceptance criteria - 定义了软件功能必须满足的条件,以确保其符合预期并可被接受)也很模糊的故事。这意味着返回的代码并不总是符合预期的。对于许多公司来说,唯一的控制机制往往是手动审查。所以,你自动化了一些事情,但我们却增加了手动审查的工作量。这些就是我们看到的瓶颈的一些例子。
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Let me talk about maybe just a couple of examples to to make that uh come to life a little bit more. One of the things that we see as a big rate limiter at the moment is around how work is allocated. And so what what we've learned over the last couple of years is that the impact from AI and agents is highly uneven. There are some tasks which where it works amazingly well today and you see huge improvements and there are others where it it's not as effective and so you have that variability. You also have variability among people. Some have have uh lots of experience now using these tools and and know how to pick that up and others uh are less experienced. Right? And so what that means for for team leaders, for engineering managers and so on is it's very highly non-trivial to know how to allocate work and resources in in a good way. And this is creating a lot of inefficiencies. Another example uh is is around how work is being reviewed. So agents are often given pretty uh fuzzy uh you know stories that are written in pros with pretty fuzzy acceptance criteria uh which which means that the code that comes back is not always what it was intended to be and and for many companies the only mechanism to control that is is often manual review. So you've automated some things but we've generated more manual review. So these are some of the some of the examples of uh this bottleneck that we that we see coming up.
传统敏捷模式的局限性
目前的结果是,今天大多数大型公司都陷入了相对边际收益的世界。它们的工作方式是基于过去人类开发模式的限制而形成的。如果你去大多数公司,你会看到 8 到 10 人的团队,他们以两周的冲刺(Sprint - 在敏捷开发中,一个固定长度的时间周期(通常为1-4周),在此期间团队完成预定的一组工作)进行工作,所有这些元素很大程度上是敏捷运营模式(Agile operating model)的一部分。而这正在给他们能看到什么设置了一些限制。
在过去的一年里,我们与许多客户合作,试图打破这种模式,并开发新的工作方式,采用更小的团队、新的角色,以及更短的周期。当我们这样做时,我们看到了非常显著的绩效提升。这为我们指明了事物将如何改进的道路。
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And as mentioned what what has that has resulted in so far is that most most large companies today uh are are stuck a little bit in in a world of relatively marginal gains. Uh they're working in ways that was developed with constraints that we had in the past paradigm of human development. So you have you you know if you go out to most companies you see 8 to 10 person teams you see working in two week sprints you have all these these elements that were largely parts of like an of an agile operating uh model and that is and that is uh putting in some some limits to what they can see. Over the past year, we've been working with lots of clients to to sort of break that model a bit uh and develop new ways of of working in smaller teams, in new roles, uh in with shorter cycles. And when you do that, we see really great performance improvements. And that's what gives you gives us this uh path to where we see things are going to improve.
AI 原生工作流与角色的重塑
我们意识到,重塑产品开发生命周期(PDLC - 指产品从概念构思到最终退市的整个过程,包括规划、设计、开发、测试、部署和维护等阶段)并非一刀切的解决方案。例如,产品生命周期中不同类型的工程职能可能需要不同的运营模式,这取决于人类和 AI 代理(AI agents)如何最佳协作。
以现代化遗留代码库为例,这项任务需要对整个代码库有高度的上下文理解,但也有明确定义的输出。因此,一个示例运营模式可能看起来像一个代理(AI agents)工厂,人类提供初始规范和最终审查,干预最少。
对于新功能、 Greenfield(Greenfield - 指从零开始开发新项目)和 Brownfield(Brownfield - 指在现有系统或平台上进行开发或改造的项目)项目,运营模式可能看起来像一个迭代循环,因为它们可能受益于非确定性的输出和增加的变异性,其中 AI 代理(AI agents)充当联合创作者,提供更多选项以促进更快的反馈循环。
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So we realized that rewiring the PDLC is not just a one-sizefits-all solution. For example, different types of engineering functions across enterprise along the product life cycle may require different operating models based on how humans and agents best collaborate. So if we take the example of modernizing legacy code bases, this task requires a high context of potentially the entire codebase but also has clearly well- definfined outputs. So an example operating model could look like a factory of agents where humans provide an initial spec and final review with minimal intervention. For new features, for green field and brownfield projects, the operating model may look like an iterative loop because they may benefit from the non-deterministic outputs and increased variation where agents act as co-creators um providing more options to facilitate faster feedback loops.
正如我们所提到的,我们对全球 300 家大型企业进行了调查,以了解这些顶尖表现者有何不同。我们发现,他们拥有 AI 原生工作流(AI-native workflows - 指专门为利用人工智能工具和能力而设计和优化的工作流程)的可能性是其他公司的七倍,这意味着 AI 在软件开发生命周期中的四个用例得到了规模化应用,而不仅仅是针对代码审查或代码生成等单一解决方案。他们拥有 AI 原生角色(AI-native roles - 指为适应人工智能驱动的工作环境而创建的新型或重塑的角色)的可能性也是其他公司的六倍,这意味着拥有具有不同技能集和新角色的更小型的“一披萨团队”(One-pizza pods - 源自亚马逊的理念,指一个团队的人数应少到可以用一个披萨喂饱,通常指3-5人,强调小而精的团队结构)。
为了实现这些转变,这些组织正在投资于持续的、实践性的技能提升,影响衡量,以及激励开发者和产品经理(PMs)采用 AI 的激励结构。这使得上市时间和交付速度提高了五到六倍,同时质量和产物也更加一致。
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So, as we mentioned, we did a survey among 300 enterprises globally to understand what sets these top performers apart. We found that they are seven times more likely to have AI native workflows which meant scaling over four use cases across the software development life cycle rather than just having point solutions for just code review or for just codev. They were also six times more likely to have AI native roles which meant having smaller pods with different skill sets and new roles. To enable these shifts, these organizations were investing in continuous and hands-on upskilling, impact measurement, and also incentive structures to incentivize developers and PMs to adopt AI.
AI 原生工作流与角色的具体体现
当我们谈论 AI 原生工作流(AI-native workflows)时,我们指的是这些企业正从季度规划转向持续规划。同时,工作单元正从基于故事(story-driven)转向基于规范(spec-driven)的开发。这样,产品经理(PMs)就可以与 AI 代理(AI agents)一起迭代规范,而不是迭代冗长的产品需求文档(PRDs - Product Requirements Documents - 详细描述产品功能、特性和用户需求的文档)。
在人才方面,AI 原生角色(AI-native roles)本质上意味着我们正从“两披萨团队”(two pizza structure)转向“一披萨团队”(one pizza pods)——即三到五人的小型团队。不再有独立的 QA、前端和后端工程师,而是更整合的角色,产品构建者(product builders)管理和协调 AI 代理(AI agents),具备全栈(full stack)的流畅性,并更好地理解代码库的整体架构。产品经理(PMs)开始直接创建原型,而不是迭代冗长的产品需求文档(PRDs)。
我们在一篇文章中描述了一个例子,我们研究了一些 AI 原生的初创公司,并意识到它们已经实施了所有这些转变来加速其成果。在我们的文章中,我们描述了 Cursor(一家AI原生初创公司)内部的运作方式。
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This led to five to six times increase in time to market and delivery speed as well as higher quality and more consistent artifacts. So when we talk about AI native workflows, we mean that these enterprises are moving away from quarterly planning to continuous planning and also um the unit of work is moving from storydriven to spec driven development. So that these PMs are iterating on these specs with agents rather than iterating on long PRDS. On the talent side, AI native roles essentially means that we're moving away from the two pizza structure to one pizza pods of three to five individuals. Instead of having separate QA frontend and backend engineers, there are more consolidated roles where product builders are managing and orchestrating agents with full stack fluency and also better understanding of the full architecture of their codebase. PMs are starting to create direct um prototypes in code rather than iterating on these long PRDs.
大型企业如何迈出第一步
但是,如果你们是一家大型企业,并且依赖于敏捷模式,可以采取哪些步骤呢?在一个最近与一家领先的国际银行的客户研究中,我们测试了一些团队层面的干预措施,以解决之前提到的瓶颈,主要是在敏捷仪式(agile ceremony)中步骤的排序,以及 AI 代理(AI agents)和人类在冲刺(sprint)周期内的角色定义。让我们通过一些例子来了解。
首先,团队领导者会根据团队速度(velocity)和交付历史的数据,使用 AI 代理(AI agents)分配冲刺(sprint)故事。然后,他们会与 AI 代理(AI agents)共同创建多个原型,并就安全性和可观测性(observability)需求相关的验收标准(acceptance criteria)进行迭代,以获得跨团队更一致的产物。这可以防止之前提到的下游返工,这样开发人员就不必在代码过程中不断与 AI 代理(AI agents)进行迭代。小队(squads)也按工作流进行了重组。例如,一个专注于小型错误修复,另一个专注于 Greenfield(Greenfield - 指从零开始开发新项目)开发。在后台,AI 代理(AI agents)将被用于查看潜在的跨存储库影响,以减少开发人员的调试时间。
另一个例子是,为了减少冲刺(sprint)周期内的协作开销和会议,产品经理(PMs)会直接观察实时客户反馈来重新确定功能优先级,而不是等待数据科学家(data scientists)的输入。这将在相同的时间内加速积压(backlog)的完成。
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And one example um that we've described in our article, we've studied some AI native startups and realized that they've actually implemented all of these shifts to accelerate their outcomes. And in our article, we've described how cursor actually operates internally. But if you're a large enterprise predicated on the agile model, what are some steps you can take? So in in a recent client study with a leading international bank, we tested some team level interventions to address the bottlenecks previously mentioned before mainly around the sequencing of steps within the agile ceremony and how uh to define the roles of agents and humans within the sprint cycle. So let's walk through some examples. First, team leads would assign sprint stories using agents based on the data of the team velocity and delivery history. And then they would create co-create multiple prototypes and iterate with agents on the acceptance criteria around security and observability needs to have more consistent artifacts across teams. This prevents downstream rework that was mentioned before so that developers don't have to constantly be iterating with the agents during during the code process. The squads were also reorganized by workflow. So there would be one which would be focused on um small bug fixes and another focused on green field development. In the background agents would be used to look and impact uh look at um the potential cross repository impacts um to prevent debugging time for developers. And another example is that instead of for reducing the collaboration overhead and meetings that happen within the sprint cycle, um instead of waiting for data scientists input, PMs would directly be observing the real-time customer feedback to rep prioritize these features and this would lead to an acceleration in the backlog within the same amount of time.
衡量干预措施的影响
我们研究了这些干预措施的影响,并发现了非常有希望的结果。例如,AI 代理(AI agents)的使用量增加了 60 倍以上,交付速度也与该银行的业务优先级直接挂钩,提高了 51%。代码合并(code mergers)数量也增加了,效率也得到了提升。
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So we studied the um impact of these interventions and found high promising results. For example, not just the increase in agent consumption by over 60 times, but there was also an increase in the delivery speed that was tied directly to the business priorities for this bank. There was a 51% increase in code mergers, but also a decrease in um an increase in efficiency.
人才模式的转变:从执行者到协调者
另一个方面是关于不同的角色和人才模式。我们看到的最大的差异化因素之一是,你实际上改变了参与软件开发的角色。你们都在看到,工程师正从执行代码和简单编写代码转向成为更多的协调者(orchestrators),更多地思考如何将工作分配给 AI 代理(AI agents)等。我们也听到了一些关于产品经理(PM)角色如何变化的例子。
虽然这听起来对在座许多每天都在使用这些工具的人来说可能相当直接——你需要改变你的做法——但现实是,我们调查的公司中约有 70% 的公司根本没有改变他们的角色。你有一个背景期望,即人们会做不同的事情,但角色仍然以同样的方式定义,并且与几年前的理解相同。
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The other aspect of this is is uh around the different roles and and and the talent model. And so one of the biggest differentiators that we saw as mentioned was around but you have actually changed the roles that uh that are involved in software development. And so you know what what you all are seeing is that engineers are moving away from execution and and just simply writing code to being more of orchestrators and and thinking through more how to divide up work to agents. for example. And we also heard some examples of how the role of the product manager is changing. And so while this this may sound, you know, pretty straightforward to many of you here who are who are working with these tools like day-to-day that you have to change what you do, the reality is that about 70% of the companies that we that we survey have have not changed their roles at all. Right? And so you have this background expectation that people are going to do things differently but uh the the role is still defined in the same way and it's the same understanding uh as it was you know a couple of years ago.
小型化团队与新角色的实践
但我们开始看到一些公司正在改变这一点。这是来自另一位近期客户的又一个例子。他们的设置方式可能对许多公司来说相当普遍,是一种典型的“两披萨团队”(two pizza team)模式,拥有你们熟悉的各种角色。我们进行了一系列实验和试点,测试了新的模式,这些模式拥有更小的团队,拥有新的角色,整合了之前由不同角色完成的一些任务。
通过这样做,我们可以创建更多的团队,但仍然保持每个团队的绩效与之前大致相同的期望。我们也看到了这带来的非常积极的结果,在某些方面保持甚至提高了生成代码的质量。特别是,不同团队的产出速度有了显著提升,你可以在这里看到一些指标。
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Um but we are starting to see, you know, some companies changing this. So this is another example from a from another recent nent client. They were set up in a in a way that is, you know, probably pretty common for for u many companies and a kind of typical two pizza uh team model with with the types of roles that you would be familiar with. Um the we ran a bunch of experiments and front runners and and tested new models that were had much smaller pods uh that had uh new roles which consolidated some of the tasks that were previously done with different roles. And and so by doing that we could we could create basically more pods or more teams uh with with the same number of people uh but retaining the expectation that each pod is is uh is um performing at about the same level as as they were before. And so so we also see really uh really positive results from that uh with with uh maintaining and even improving in some is the quality of the code that was generated. In particular, there was a there was a high speed up in in terms of uh the output from from the different teams and you can see some of the metrics uh here.
规模化变革:变革管理的重要性
让我们稍微转换一下话题,从团队层面的讨论转向如何在一个大型组织中实现规模化。现实情况是,许多公司拥有的不是一两个这样的团队,而是数百个团队,甚至成千上万、数万人以这种方式工作。而这正是我们看到的,那些只获得 10% 左右改进的公司与那些获得超额改进的公司之间的一个最大区别,在于如何管理这种变化。我认为变革管理(Change management - 指为实现组织目标而进行的结构化方法,涉及规划、实施和监控变革过程)是许多不同事物的总称,但它不是一个坏的思考方式。我通常说,变革管理就是把很多小事情做好。
要真正实现规模化,关键往往在于同时做好 20、30 甚至更多的事情,这涉及到沟通方式——这有什么意义;激励方式;以及技能提升方式。所有这些都必须协同进行。而当它们没有协同时,我们就会看到结果。
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Let's shift gears a little bit and and and go from talking about just the team level. So how does this now scale uh across a big organization? The reality is that many many companies don't just have like one or two of these these teams but often hundreds of teams even and thousands or even tens of thousands of people who are working in this way. And uh this is where one of the biggest differences that we that we saw between those that are stuck a bit in the um in in getting only 10% or so change improvements from those who are seeing outsized improvements is around how you manage that how you manage that change and change management I guess is like one of these a little bit of an often catch or elusive term for uh for a lot of different things but but I think in some ways it's not a bad way to think about I I usually say that the change management is about getting a lot of like small things right. And so the crux to like actually scaling this is often about getting 20, 30 or even more things right at the same time that involve the way you communicate uh what this means, the way you incentivize people, uh the way you upskill them, and it all has to come together.
失败与成功的案例对比
这是我们与另一家科技公司合作的一个例子。起初,我们为他们推出了针对产品开发生命周期(PDLC)不同部分的新 AI 工具。我们推出了工具,有一些使用,但通常很快就停止了。要么根本没用,要么就是以非常次优的方式使用。这就是左侧图表中你看到的参差不齐的部分。尽管增加了更多用户,但整体影响完全没有改变。所以,我们不得不进行一次彻底的重置,重新开始,重新设定期望。这对开发者来说意味着什么?对产品经理(PM)来说又意味着什么?我们进行了更多实践性的技能提升。有“自带代码”(bring your own code)的环节,有教练指导,尤其是在最初的几个冲刺(sprint)中,直到将其变成一种习惯,并融入到你日常的软件开发方式中。这是一个非常关键的时期,这时才真正重要。同时,还需要一套衡量体系,这样你才能知道什么在改变,并能看到什么在改进。
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Um and when it when it's not, we we we see what happens. And so this is an example from from another tech company that we worked with um where initially we're rolling out new AI tools for them that that hit different parts of the product development life cycle. Um we we rolled we rolled out the tools there was some usage but often it dropped off. It was either not used or it was um it was sort of um used in very suboptimal ways. So that's the sort of jagged part that you're seeing on the on the left hand side here. Despite kind of adding more users uh the overall impact did not change at all. So we had to do a quite a reset and and um start over effectively reset the expectations. What should what what does this mean if you're a developer dayto-day? What does it mean for a PM? Uh we had much more hands-on upskilling. There was could bring your own code. there were, you know, coaches available, especially those first like few sprints before you get make this a habit and work it into the way that you develop software dayto-day. It's a very critical time and that's when when this matters a lot. Um, and having a bit of a a measurement system as well, so you know what's changing and and you're able to to see what's uh what's what's improving.
衡量体系:关注结果而非仅仅采用
另一个例子,正如之前提到的,这关乎把很多事情做好。其中任何一件单独的事情可能看起来不是最大的交易,但结合起来,它们确实能产生巨大的差异。这是另一位客户经历过的顶尖干预措施。例如,设立代码实验室(code labs)真的很有帮助,比如推行一套新的认证体系,这有助于激励人们改变他们日常的做法。这些事情确实累加起来,带来了他们所需的改变。
建立一个强大的衡量体系,优先考虑结果而非仅仅采用,这很重要,不仅是为了监控进展,也是为了快速定位问题并纠正方向。调查中一个令人惊讶的结果是,那些表现不佳的企业甚至没有衡量速度,只有 10% 的企业在衡量生产力。但我们的目标是让我们的客户成为顶尖表现者。因此,我们与他们合作创建了一个全面的衡量体系,该体系能够捕捉从输入到输出的各个环节的影响。
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Another example just to put this alive a little bit as mentioned like this is about getting a lot of things um right and it's each one of these individually may not seem like it's the biggest deal uh but put together they really make a make a huge difference like this is for this is some of the top uh interventions that another client had to go through for them it really helped having you know setting up code labs for example really you know instituting a new set of certifications that helped motivate and and drive people to to change what they do day dayto-day. And these these things really added up to the change they needed. >> But building a robust measurement system that prioritizes outcomes and not just adoption is important not just to monitor progress but also pinpoint issues and course correct quickly. So one surprising result from the survey was that these enterprises that were bottom performers were not even measuring speed and only 10% were measuring productivity.
全面的衡量框架
对于输入,这包括对编码工具和其他 AI 工具的投资,以及在技能提升和变革管理方面的时间和资源。这些输入将直接导致输出。但很多组织只关注 AI 工具采用的广度和深度增加,如何导致速度和容量的增加。然而,了解开发人员的净推荐值(NPS - Net Promoter Score - 一种衡量客户忠诚度和满意度的指标,通过询问客户推荐某产品或服务的可能性来计算)有所不同,以及他们是否更享受自己的工作,而不是感到更沮丧,这一点也很重要。同时,了解代码是否变得更安全、质量更高,并且更具弹性(resilient),这一点也很重要。我们为客户使用的弹性代理指标之一是解决优先 bug 的平均时间(mean time to resolve)。
现在,如果我们看经济成果,这是首席执行官(CEOs)的首要任务,他们会关注达到收入目标的时间,更高质量功能的价格差异,或扩大客户数量以满足功能需求,以及每个团队因减少人力劳动而产生的成本降低。总而言之,这些更大的经济成果可以使组织了解如何增加对 Greenfield(Greenfield - 指从零开始开发新项目)和 Brownfield(Brownfield - 指在现有系统或平台上进行开发或改造的项目)开发的再投资。但随着这些工具的演变,这些指标的代理(proxies)也将随之演变。但希望这能提供一个 MECI 框架(一个衡量框架)作为初步的起点。
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But our goal is to make our clients top performing organizations. So we've worked with them to create a holistic measurement system that captures impact all the way down to inputs. So for inputs this would include the investment into coding tools and other AI tools but also the time and resources in upskilling and change management. These inputs would lead to direct outputs but a lot of organizations are just focusing on how the increased breath and depth of adoption with of AI tools is leading to increased velocity and capac capacity increase. However, it's also important to understand how developers have uh different NPS scores and if they're enjoying their craft more um rather than feeling more frustrated. And it's also important to understand whether the code is becoming more secure and have has better quality but also more resilient. And one proxy for resiliency that we used for our client was the meantime to resolve priority bugs. Now if we look at economic outcomes which is priority for um the seauite executives they look into what is the time to revenue target what is the increased price differential for higher quality features or expanding the number of customers to meet the feature demand and also what is the cost reduction per pod for reduced human labor in aggregate. Having these larger economic outcomes can also lead um to for organizations to understand how there is an increased reinvestment in green field and brownfield development. But as these tools evolve, the proxies for these metrics will also evolve. But hopefully this provides a MECI framework as an initial starting point.
未来展望与关键启示
那么,下一步是什么?当然,未来很难预测,尤其是在未来 5 年内。但我们希望,通过我们对新的软件开发模式的愿景,即使 AI 代理(AI agents)的智能不断提高,人类在 AI 方面的能力也日益增强,这种模式仍然能够站稳脚跟。希望这种模式——包括更短的冲刺(sprints)、更小的团队,但团队数量更多——能够让大型企业为长期的成功做好准备。
最后,我想给大家留下一些关键的启示。我会对我们的客户说:现在就开始。这是一场人的变革,需要时间和精力,而且是一场巨大的变革,它将是一个旅程。所以,我认为这是每个人都需要踏上的旅程。我认为弄清楚哪种模式适合你也很重要,并设定一个非常宏大的目标。
感谢大家的聆听。如果您对我们进行的研究更感兴趣,我们有一篇文章。非常感谢您的邀请。
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So what's next? The future of course is difficult to predict, let alone in the next 5 years. But we hope that with our vision of a new software development model, even as agents increase in their intelligence and humans become more fluent in AI, that this model still stands. So hopefully this model that includes um shorter sprints, smaller teams, but large u smaller but larger number of teams will set enterprises up for success in the long term. >> So just leave you with some some key takeaways. um start now. I would say to to our our clients, this is a human change and it takes some times and it's a big change and and it's going to be a journey and so I think um this is something that everyone needs to go on. I think it's also important to figure out which model works for you and set a really bold ambition and with that say thank you so much for listening to us and and uh we have an article here if you're more interested in in the research that we've conducted. Thank you so much for having us. >> [music]
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
公司/组织: McKinsey & Company
媒体/书籍: The Last Economy