Jason: All right, everybody. Welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. We've got the core four here and dare I say, the king of Adams. Yes. Captain Travis Kalanick is here. How you doing, brother?

Travis: I'm pretty good. Pretty good. I'm uh sitting here doing the podcast just next door to David.

Jason: Don't reveal our locations. Please don't dock.

Sacks: Don't worry, Mandami did. He's outside your houses right now asking them to foresee trying to collect 3.9% or so.

Jason: Yeah, he's he they he decided there's rich people left in New York. So, he's looking for other is it 3.9% a year. Is it per year or is it

Sacks: I don't know if the percentage has been released yet, but the speculation I've seen is 3.9% but I don't think that's final. But yeah, it's a pia ter tax. So, if you have a second home Yeah. every year. Wow. And by the way, it's for any home over 5 million. There's no homes under 5 million in Manhattan. This is not a rich person tax.

Chamath: But only but Jal only if it's a pat. So what it means is that the most second homes. Well, yeah, but the most elastic part of the market is what they're targeting for this tax. So in other words, people who don't live in New York, who just have it as a second or third home, who could buy that property anywhere, yeah, are now being taxed the most. So what do you think that's going to do? It's going to have a massive impact on demand for second homes in New York, which will crash the whole market.

Jason: Yes, congratulations, Mummy. But in a weird way, that'll be good for housing affordability in New York.

Sacks: Well, that that's sort of the the claim, but I don't think it'll be good for it because there'll be no incentive to build more. Yeah, all units matter. Every time you add units, people upgrade. And it's not like these are going to be lowincome housing. Like penthouse on 57th Street or, you know, in Grammarcy. That's not lowincome housing. You'd have to break it into seven units. Makes no sense.

Jason: But by the way, I don't know if you guys saw the video, not to get too serious, but he's doxing a certain billionaire who owns a certain place and he's literally pointing at his home.

Sacks: No, I said that to you, Jason. He's not doxing because everybody's known for years that Ken Griffin bought that place. Everybody knows that address. Everybody knows that unit. We all knew it. It was marketed widely. I don't think that's really doxing. It's a dog whistle to say that's the next United Healthcare CEO and in the week that a fire a Molotov cocktail and a bullet gets shot into Sam Alman's house, it's deadly serious. Nobody deserves to have their house fire bombed or shot at. Period. Full stop.

Jason: All right, let's go to topic number one. Open AI is apparently suffering from a bit of an identity crisis on Sunday. Open AI's chief revenue officer Denise Dresser sent a four-page memo to employees. Obviously, it leaked immediately, probably the point of it, and she called out Enthropic. She said their $30 billion run rate is cap inflated by 8 billion due to a revenue share and some accounting with AI model providers.

Jason: She also laid out OpenAI's pivoting and she said they are going hard after business customers and they want to win the agent platform layer. The FT cited anonymous OpenAI investors who are frustrated with the company's lack of focus. "You have chat GPT a 1 billion user business growing 50 to 100% a year. What are you doing talking about enterprise and code? It's a deeply unfocused company."

Chamath: What I can tell you from my team at 8090 is codeex is better generally than anthropic as it relates to complex long horizon coding tasks. Codeex is really functional and really good. So I think if you're looking at it through the lens of open AI, what they're probably saying is, hey, if we double down on codeex and do something meaningful in enterprise, we can probably capture two or three trillion there. You got to let the consumer team run and then you got to isolate the enterprise team and let them do what they think is right.

Travis: Growth is king right now in this segment. Growth is the whole damn thing. And if Anthropic is growing faster than OpenAI by a significant clip, the investors right now are going to play it forward. I'd be very worried if I'm open AI and seeing somebody growing faster at the same size.

Friedberg: What I've noticed is just the the pace of uh innovation at Anthropic is from my experience unprecedented. I mean, they're release cadence is extraordinary. If I look back 6 months ago, I think we were pretty heavy on Cursor and Gemini. And now I think we're probably 90% anthropic in just the last 6 months. There's something very powerful about the flywheel they have going on.

Chamath: All of these frontier labs have a very serious issue which is both open AAI and Anthropic are growing so fast that they're at a point now where they need their own infrastructure. It becomes a dependency. Exactly. And now when you're so big, it's actually strategically a huge mistake to not have your own comput.

Sacks: Elon's been building Colossus, he's expanding to 555,000 GPUs across three buildings, 18 billion in investment. He's now getting effectively into the data center business. He's going to be a hypers skill.

Chamath: The American population is incrementally getting more and more negative on the whole subject matter. As the sentiment shifts, they are taking the most scaled action, which is then they are going and voting down data centers. A town approves a $6 billion data center build and then half the the the board gets ousted. We are absolutely compute constrained.

Sacks: I think the data centers become very unpopular. probably in 30 states they're just going to ban them outright. Ironically again is anthropic itself. It has allied itself politically with a lot of the doomer groups. They might regret salting the earth for data centers all over the country. And I wonder if that'll be the natural limit of their growth is they'll be hoisted on their own petard of doomer nimism.

Jason: How is the market crushing it while we're in week seven of a war and we put a hundred billion dollars or something into this military activity in Iran and the market is pricing it in shrugging it off and we're hitting all-time high?

Sacks: The market is feeling confident and pricing in that the war is going to get resolved. The stock market is the ultimate prediction market, that this war is on its way to being resolved.

Travis: The insight is like Trump's weather vein is the stock market. He moves in the policy space. He does not let the S&P go down too low. He gets people nervous, makes moves, and then he comes back to reality and gets things done. The traitors are getting used to it I think.

Chamath: The Schiller PE shows near all-time highs. Then the second is the Buffett index is also at all-time highs. This would generally mean that you need to be increasingly a little bit more risk-off. I'm waiting for these IPOs so that I can delever and get some chips off the table.

Jason: The reason people and traders are valuing this is what you're seeing in terms of the earnings potential of these companies as they deploy AI. The top employees at the top companies become 10 or 20 or 30 times more productive that's never been seen before. The efficiency boom is going to be phenomenal.