苹果与中国的深度交织
中国正在助力苹果(Apple: 美国科技巨头,以其消费电子产品、软件和在线服务闻名)取得成功,而苹果的成功也为中国带来了巨大的利益。以下是我与商业记者Patrick McGee对话的一部分,我们讨论了他的新书《Apple in China: The Capture of the World's Greatest Company》,该书探讨了这家科技巨头对中国的依赖如何影响着我们所有人。
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China is helping fuel Apple's success and the company's success has had major benefits for China. Here's part of my conversation with business journalist Patrick McGee. We talked about his new book, Apple in China: The Capture of the World's Greatest Company. How the tech giant's dependence on China is affecting all of us.
主持人:Patrick,很高兴能邀请您来这里。
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>> Patrick, glad to have you here.
Patrick McGee:谢谢,我的荣幸,Jan。您不常来北美这边,通常都在美国。我开玩笑说,一个加拿大人,住在美国,却是中国的专家或准专家,这感觉很恰当。
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>> Thank you. My pleasure, Jan. Now, you're not often on this side of uh North America, usually in the States. I I was kind of making the joke, Canadian, lives in the States, expert, quasi expert on China. That's kind of feels like a an appropriate thing now.
Patrick McGee:嗯,我想先谈谈苹果以及它的一切是如何开始的。苹果的产品并非一直都在中国制造。我想稍微回顾一下,以便设定一些背景。苹果在1976年创立时,它的产品是在哪里组装的?这个项目背后的两位核心人物是谁?
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>> Um I want to first talk about uh just Apple and where it all started. Apple wasn't always made in China. Uh I want to go a bit back just to set some context. When Apple was created, 1976, where was it being assembled? Who were the two two brains uh in the project?
Patrick McGee:当然,苹果是由两位二十多岁名叫史蒂夫(Steve: 指史蒂夫·乔布斯和史蒂夫·沃兹尼亚克)的年轻人创立的。他们真的是在一个车库里创办了这家公司。人们可能已经忘记了Apple I(Apple I: 苹果公司于1976年发布的第一款个人电脑),但Apple II(Apple II: 苹果公司于1977年发布的个人电脑,取得了巨大成功)却持续了十多年。它在整整十年里都是最大的收入来源。但Apple I只是一个电路板。所以,它实际上是由苹果的第一位员工,也就是史蒂夫·乔布斯怀孕的女友Patty(Patty: 史蒂夫·乔布斯的第一位员工,负责组装Apple I电路板)组装的。她当时只是在组装这个电路板。当人们购买它时,你必须自带键盘,自带电脑显示器。我本来想说自带鼠标,但那时鼠标甚至都还没真正出现。我的意思是,这就是苹果在个人电脑革命中有多么早期。
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>> Well, Apple, of course, is founded by two guys named Steve in their 20s. And they're they're really founding the company out of a garage. And you know, the Apple one computer that people have forgotten about. The Apple 2 lived for more than a decade. It was the biggest revenue driver for an entire decade. But the Apple 1 was just a circuit board. So, it was assembled actually by Apple's first employee, which was Steve Jobs pregnant, Patty. Uh so, she was just assembling this circuit board. And when people purchased it, you had to bring your own uh keyboard. you had to bring your own computer u or sorry monitor and I'd say you bring your own mouse but the mouse didn't really even exist at that point I mean that's how early Apple is in the in the PC revolution
苹果的早期发展与竞争格局
主持人:快进到后来,我想了解一下当时的竞争情况。IBM(IBM: 国际商业机器公司,早期计算机行业的巨头)在当时是一个大公司,现在依然是,但与那时不同。当我们看当时的激烈竞争时,IBM与苹果有什么不同之处?
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>> fast forward I I kind of want to get an idea of the comp the competition uh IBM big name at the time still is today but different in that time when we look at uh sort of the fierce competition what was IBM doing differently uh that Apple wasn't
Patrick McGee:史蒂夫·乔布斯在1981年IBM个人电脑发布后,曾著名地对其进行解剖,他基本上将其斥为一堆垃圾。他有些地方说对了,有些地方说错了。我采访过一位在1980年代同时在IBM和苹果工作的人,他们说史蒂夫·乔布斯说对的是,IBM个人电脑确实只是由现有标准化部件拼凑而成的。它的工作方式没有什么特别之处。而IBM,你知道,它并非泛泛之辈,对吧?引用年轻的史蒂夫·鲍尔默(Steve Ballmer: 曾任微软CEO)的话,它是计算机行业的太阳、月亮和星星。在那个时候,它已经连续几十年是世界上最大的科技公司,但他们对个人电脑领域来说是新手。所以他们对个人电脑的贡献并非乔布斯所担心的那样,即某种惊人的、其他公司无力实现的界面。他们的优势在于分销、物流以及如何廉价地大规模生产这些产品。他们有一个致命的缺陷,就是其他人可以克隆他们的设备。所以IBM的衰落是另一个故事。但他们能够做到的,是在规模上超越苹果。所以,所有那些史蒂夫·乔布斯不关心的、计算机行业中“无聊”的事情,正是IBM擅长的。史蒂夫·乔布斯试图构建更好的图形用户界面等,本应是答案。但基本上没有人知道如何使用Mac(Mac: 苹果公司推出的个人电脑系列)。因此在很长一段时间里,它基本上是一个失败的产品。史蒂夫·乔布斯因此在1985年被公司罢免,原因是他为一个基本上失败的产品做了过多的宣传。
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>> so Steve Jobs famously dissects uh the IBM PC upon its release in 1981, he basically dismisses it as a piece of junk. It's pretty well, he gets something right and he gets something wrong. Uh I talked to someone that worked at both IBM and Apple in the 1980s and they say what Steve Jobs got right was that it really was just bandaged together of existing standardized parts. There was nothing special about how it worked. And IBM, you know, was not just some slouch, right? It was the sun, the moon, the stars of the computer industry to quote a young Steve Bomber. Um, it had been the largest tech company in the in the world for like decades at that point, but they were just new to PCs. And so their contribution to PCs wasn't what Jobs feared it would be, which would be some, you know, amazing interface that others didn't have the money to do. Um, it was in the distribution, the logistics, um, how to actually build these things cheaply and at scale. And they had this fatal flaw that other people could clone the device. And so IBM's demise is sort of a separate story. But what they were able to do was just sort of outmatch Apple in scale. So all the things that were kind of boring about the computer industry that Steve Jobs didn't care about, that's what IBM excelled in doing. And Steve Jobs trying to build a better graphical user interface and stuff was supposed to be the answer. But basically nobody knew how to use the Mac. And so for a long time, um, it basically was a failed product. and Steve Jobs gets ousted by the company in 1985 as a result of like sort of being a hype hype salesman for a product that basically had failed.
乔布斯回归与外包之路
主持人:我们来谈谈那个转折点。当我们看苹果时,正如您所说,乔布斯在1985年离开了公司,创办了NeXT(NeXT: 史蒂夫·乔布斯离开苹果后创立的电脑公司),但发展不佳。后来NeXT被苹果收购,乔布斯于1997年回归。我想了解他回来时看到了什么?
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>> Well, let's talk about that. So, turning point really when we look at Apple uh by this time as you mentioned Jobs leaves 1985 starts next doesn't do too well. Uh but later absorbed and Job returns 1997. I want to get to understand what did he see when he returned?
Patrick McGee:本质上是一场灾难。史蒂夫·乔布斯在1985年被他创立的公司罢免时,确实受到了很大的打击。而我认为我的故事开始为我们理解苹果提供新视角的地方在于,在Mac失败和史蒂夫·乔布斯被罢免之后,激光打印机(Laser Printer: 一种使用激光技术进行打印的打印机)出现了。实际上,我应该说史蒂夫·乔布斯在构建激光打印机方面发挥了关键作用。但激光打印机和Mac结合在一起,创造了桌面出版(Desktop Publishing: 指通过个人电脑和桌面排版软件进行出版物设计和制作的过程),一个全新的行业,这基本上让苹果在80年代和90年代得以蓬勃发展。那台打印机并非由苹果自己制造,而是外包给了日本。这可以算是苹果开始外包的起源故事。所以,当时有些高管从Certino(Certino: 可能是指一个与苹果早期外包相关的公司或地点,原文未明确)飞进飞出东京长达十年,他们开始真正明白:我们无法教日本人如何制造。他们在制造方面比我们更出色。所以当史蒂夫·乔布斯回到一家濒临失败的公司时,我甚至能拿到他当时的私人会议记录,他基本上认为如果我们能撑过下一年,我们就能撑五年,但他不认为我们能撑过下一年。苹果的资产负债表上基本上没有钱。他们离破产只有90天。他们没有热门产品。一切都进展得很糟糕,债务也即将到期。所以,真正发生的是他遇到了乔尼·艾维(Johnny Ive: 苹果公司的前首席设计官),他们与整个工业设计团队一起,设计出了半透明的邦迪蓝iMac(iMac: 苹果公司于1998年推出的个人电脑系列)。它成为了世界上最畅销的电脑,或者至少是美国最畅销的电脑。但它的制造方式和制造地点,是一个从未真正被讲述过的故事。所以,我再次能够为苹果这家公司提供一个全新的视角,因为在过去的25年里,我们彻底忽略了他们是如何实际制造产品的。
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>> H catastrophe essentially. So Steve Jobs is really burned when he is ousted from the company that he founded in 1985. And where my story I think begins to really sort of offer something new to Apple um to our understanding of Apple is that after the Mac fails and Steve Jobs is ousted, you have the advent of the laser printer. Actually I should say Steve Jobs was was instrumental with building the laser printer. But the laser printer and Mac together created desktop publishing, a whole new industry that basically allows Apple to thrive in the 80s and into the 1990s. Um, and that printer was not built by Apple. It was outsourced to Japan. Um, and that's sort of the origin story of Apple getting into outsourcing. And so what you have is these executives from Certino and they're flying in and out of Tokyo for a decade and they're really beginning to understand like we can't teach the Japanese how to manufacture. they're better than man better than us at manufacturing. So when Steve Jobs comes back to a failed company, I mean I was able to get his private meeting notes from the time and he basically thinks if we can make it through the next year, we can make it for 5 years, but I don't think we're going to make it through the next year. Apple basically had no money on the balance sheet. Um they're 90 days from bankruptcy. They don't have a hit product. Everything's just going poorly and debts are coming due and such. Um, and so what really happens is he meets Johnny Eyes and together with the whole industrial design team, they come up with a translucent Bondi blue iMac and it becomes the world's bestselling computer or at least America's bestselling computer. But how it's made and where it's made is just a story that had never really been told before. And so again, I just am able to sort of give this new angle to Apple as a company because we've thoroughly ignored how they actually make their products over the last 25 years.
主持人:您做了一件有趣的事情。我想,史蒂夫·乔布斯只是过街去见乔尼,然后说:“我们需要解决这个问题。”
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>> Well, you do this interesting job. I think it's, you know, Steve Jobs just crosses the street to meet, you know, Johnny to be like, "We need to figure this out."
Patrick McGee:甚至不是那样。我想他去是为了解雇他。
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>> Not even that. I think he goes to fire him,
主持人:对吧?
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>> right?
Patrick McGee:而乔尼·艾维口袋里揣着辞职信。
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>> And Johnny Ive comes with a resignation letter in his pocket. I mean,
主持人:准备好了。但是……
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>> ready to go. But
Patrick McGee:他们注定要在一起,但当时他们都不知道。
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>> they were faded to be together, but neither of them knew that at the time.
设计与制造的“金字塔”结构
主持人:对我来说,我想对许多正在阅读这本书的人来说,那是一个关键时刻,即艰苦的设计过程,ID(Industrial Design: 工业设计,专注于产品外观、功能和用户体验的设计)、MD(Manufacturing Design: 制造设计,专注于产品如何被高效、经济地生产出来的设计)、PD(Product Design: 产品设计,专注于产品功能、结构和工程实现的设计),它们不是博士学位。这是一种……也许您能为我们解释一下这些是什么?您把它比作一个金字塔。
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>> Um, to me, and I think for a lot of people who are reading this book, this was the moment sort of the grueling design process, the the ID, the MD, the the PD, they're not doctorates. This is sort of the maybe break that down for us. What are those? You kind of build it as a pyramid.
Patrick McGee:是的,苹果内部有一个金字塔结构。所以,想想任何产品。第一个构思产品、它会是什么样子、感觉如何的团队是工业设计(Industrial Design)。所以,在黄金时代,它由乔尼·艾维领导,这很出名。这个团队会说iPod(iPod: 苹果公司于2001年推出的便携式音乐播放器)将是纯粹的白色,背面是镀铬的,对吧?然后他们会把它扔给产品设计(Product Design)或PD团队。你可以把这看作是一个由杰出工程师组成的团队,他们试图弄清楚如何让这个产品运作?电路板放在哪里?电池放在哪里?还需要什么?然后他们会把它扔给一个以前从未被真正提及过的团队,叫做MD(Manufacturing Design)或制造设计。他们的想法基本上是:我们到底如何制造这个东西?我们的供应商是谁?我们的合同制造商是谁?基本上是他们决定去亚洲,真正遵循整个计算机行业的流动趋势。然后多年来,从亚洲内部,你最终会去中国。所以,从1996年到2003年,有一个长达七年的“长征”到中国。我谈到,当苹果提出这些出色的设计时,我们对苹果似乎遗忘的一点是,如果产品以完全不同的概念方式、不同的美学等进行设计,那么它们也会以不同的方式制造,以满足这些标准。而制造这些产品需要培训。如果你正在组装戴尔(Dell: 知名电脑品牌)电脑,你没有塑料注塑成型、金属冲压等技能来制造一个半透明的塑料电脑。所以MD团队 literalmente 一飞机一飞机地派人去亚洲,培训人们以满足苹果苛刻的质量要求。很久以后,当iPhone(iPhone: 苹果公司于2007年推出的智能手机系列)大获成功时,你还需要以惊人的数量达到他们的质量水平。当你把苹果对缺陷的零容忍文化与从iPod mini(iPod mini: 苹果公司于2004年推出的iPod小型版本)开始并延伸到iPhone的令人难以置信的数量结合起来时,你就会开始明白,苹果和中国“喜结良缘”之前的“一见钟情”时刻,最终产生了这些二阶、三阶的影响,让苹果最终在中国扮演了“国家建设者”的角色。
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>> Yeah, there's a pyramid structure within Apple. So, think of any products. The the first team to sort of conceive of a product, what it's going to look like, what it's going to feel like is industrial design. So, famously in the golden age that's led by Johnny Ive. That's the team that will say the iPod's going to be, you know, unapologetically white with a chrome back, right? Um, they sort of throw it over the fence to product design or PD. You could think of this as a brilliant team of engineers who's trying to figure out how do we make one of these work? Where's the circuit board going to be? Where's the battery going to be? What else does it need? Then they throw it over to this team that had never really been written about before called MD or manufacturing design. Their idea is basically like how do we actually build this thing? Who are our suppliers? Who are our contract manufacturers? And it's basically them that decide to go to Asia really following the sort of flow of the entire computer industry. And then from within Asia over the years, you you end up going to China. So there's this like seven-year like long march to China. I talk about from 1996 to 2003. And as Apple's coming up with these brilliant designs, the thing that we've sort of forgotten about Apple is that um if things are designed in a totally conceptually different way and for a different aesthetic and and so forth, they're built in a different way to meet those um standards. And the building of those things requires training. If you're um assembling Dell computers, you don't have the training, the plastic injection molding skills, the the metal stamping skills to create a translucent plastic computer. And so MD sends people over to Asia literally by the plane load to train up people to meet Apple's demanding qualities. And much later when the iPhone becomes a big success, you're meeting their quality levels at astounding quantities as well. And when you combine Apple's like zero tolerance for defects culture with the mind-boggling quantities that begin with the iPod mini and then extend through to the iPhone, um you begin to understand that the sort of meatcute moment before Apple and China get married. um ends up having these second order, third order impacts where Apple ends up being like a nation builder in China.
富士康与中国速度
主持人:好的,我想稍微回顾一下,因为里面有一些很棒的人物。我想谈谈郭台铭(Terry Gou: 富士康科技集团创始人)。因为他打了一个电话,基本上他说他看到了史蒂夫·乔布斯所看到的,并说他可以解决这个问题。嗯,请帮助我们理解,因为在中国之前,正如您所提到的,还有其他国家被用于MD流程,即制造流程。为什么苹果最终决定将生产转移到中国?如果您看郭台铭,我认为他与史蒂夫·乔布斯有着相似的思维,在某种程度上,这是一种完美的结合。所以,这本书中最好的一句话之一是我妻子写的。[笑声]那句话大概是:“乔尼·艾维和史蒂夫·乔布斯之间的思想碰撞,让苹果产品独一无二,但正是蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook: 苹果公司现任CEO)和郭台铭让它们无处不在。”嗯,所以郭台铭是富士康(Foxconn: 台湾电子产品制造商,全球最大的电子产品代工厂)的创始人,成立于1974年,地点在台湾,翻译成英文就是“泥土之城”。所以,你知道,史蒂夫·乔布斯和史蒂夫·沃兹尼亚克(Steve Wozniak: 苹果公司联合创始人)在一个车库里,郭台铭则在“泥土之城”的一个棚屋里。嗯,有趣的是,他是台湾人,而台湾和中国大陆几十年来一直处于对立状态,直到我认为是1987年,两岸关系缓和,台湾商人首次被允许到中国大陆设厂,这最终对中国大陆来说是一个具有巨大影响的到来,因为他们当时没有任何制造专业知识。我的意思是,毛泽东(Mao: 指毛泽东,中国共产党创始人及中华人民共和国第一任最高领导人)让国家处于一片混乱之中。所以邓小平(Deng Xiaoping: 中国改革开放的总设计师)“改革开放”的思路是,我们如何吸引来自香港、台湾、日本的资本?所以我们让深圳(Shenzhen: 中国广东省的一个主要城市,以其经济特区和制造业中心闻名)等这些区域变得容易建设工厂,然后我们就能学习技能等,从而为我们自己的人民提供就业机会、价值和技能。嗯,这在某种意义上取得了历史上从未有过的成功,对吧?我的意思是,中国大陆已经经历了四十年的两位数增长,而台湾在高端电子产品领域最终发挥了至关重要的作用。所以,富士康的创始人郭台铭有着不同的策略。他更有野心,他比任何人都更好地抓住了苹果的独特性。我想他比苹果自己更了解苹果。这本书中有一个场景,郭台铭和一些苹果高管在一个田野里,他说他会在这里建一个工厂,但苹果高管看到了什么?一片空地。
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>> All right, I want to actually take it back a little bit because no, there's some great characters in there and I I want to talk about Terry uh because there was a phone call that he makes that he essentially says he sees what you know uh Steve Jobs sees and says I can fix this essentially. um and and kind of help us understand because before China like you mentioned there were other nations that were you know used in sort of the in the MD process the manufacturing process. Why did Apple finally decide to move production to China? If you look at Terry I see him as a similar mind as Steve Jobs it was kind of a a perfect marriage in some in some way. So, one of the best lines of the book was written by my wife. [laughter] And the line is something like, "The meeting of the minds between Johnny IV and Steve Jobs made Apple products unique, but it was Tim Cook and Terry Guo who would make them ubiquitous." Um, and so Terry Guo is the founder of Foxcon, 1974, founded in a in in a place in in Taiwan that translates to dirt city in English. So, you know, Steve Jobs and and Steve Waznjak are in a in a in a garage. Terry goes in a shed in dirt city. Um, so what's interesting is that he's Taiwanese and Taiwan and China are at odds for decades until I believe it's 1987 where there's like a repro and Taiwanese businessmen are allowed to go to China for the first time and set up shop and it ends up being this hugely consequential um, uh, advent for China because they don't have any manufacturing expertise at the time. I mean, Mao has left the country in chatters. And so the the thinking of Dang Xiaoping with reform and opening up is how about we lure in capital from Hong Kong, from Taiwan, from Japan. So we sort of make it easy in these zones like in Shenzhen um for things to be built here and then we'll sort of learn the skill sets and so forth um to to sort of give uh you know jobs and um value and skill sets to our own people. Um and that just works like nothing's worked in history in a certain sense, right? I [clears throat] mean, you've had four decades a sense of double-digit growth in China, and the Taiwanese end up being totally instrumental to the high-end electronics world. And so, Terry, the founder of Foxcon, just has a different strategy. He's more ambitious, and he latches on to the uniqueness of Apple really, just better than anybody. I I think he understands Apple before Apple understands Apple. Well, there's a scene in this book where Terry uh looks around a field and he's with some Apple execs and he says he's going to get a factory built here, but the Apple execs see what? An empty field.
Patrick McGee:是的。这是约翰·鲁宾斯坦(John Rubenstein: 曾任苹果公司高级副总裁,负责硬件部门,被称为“iPod之父”)。他是“iPod之父”,对吧?当时是硬件部门的高级副总裁。乔尼·艾维的老板。我的意思是,地位非常高。他与史蒂夫·乔布斯合作了16年。嗯,是的。所以,郭台铭指着一片基本上是垃圾的空地,说:“这就是你们的工厂。”这大概是在四月,而iPod(iPod: 苹果公司于2001年推出的便携式音乐播放器)本应在圣诞季前生产出来。所以他很恐慌。我的意思是,他简直是焦虑症发作。但郭台铭基本上比中国其他任何人都更了解“中国速度”(China speed: 形容中国在基础设施建设和生产方面惊人的速度),以及他们能多快地建成一座工厂。
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>> Yeah. This is John Rubenstein. So, he's the podfather, right? Senior vice president at the time of hardware. Johnny Ives boss. I mean, as high as you can go. He worked with Apple uh Steve Jobs for 16 years. Um Yes. Yeah. So, Terry points out to an empty field basically full of garbage and says, "Here's your factory." And this is I think in like an April and the iPod is supposed to be being built for the Christmas season. So he's panicking. I mean he's literally having like an anxiety attack. Um but Terry basically understood probably more than anybody else in China just what China speed meant and how quickly they could come up with a factory.
中国的比较优势与规模效应
主持人:我很好奇,这种快速建厂的能力如何成为一个国家的比较优势(Comparative Advantage: 指一个国家或地区在生产某种产品时,相对于其他国家或地区具有更低的生产成本或更高的效率)?
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>> Well, I'm curious how does the ability to just build a factory uh play into a country's sort of comparative advantage?
Patrick McGee:嗯,有趣的是,我不知道我们在这个阶段是否会谈论中国,因为它实际上只是深圳,而深圳在某种程度上被从全国其他地方划分出来,采取了一种完全自由放任的资本主义实验(laissez-faire experimentation with capitalism: 指政府对经济活动干预较少,允许市场自由运作的经济政策)的方式。所以他们能够以惊人的速度建造建筑。我的意思是,当时非官方的口号是“三天一层楼”,所以当你建造工厂时,速度就是这么快。我不知道加拿大现在的标准是什么,但你知道,肯定会慢很多,对吧?所以,约翰·鲁宾斯坦开的玩笑——其实不是玩笑,只是现实——是,你知道,他们建一座工厂的时间,你我可能还在处理环境审批文件。这很难竞争,而中国,至少深圳,一直在这样做。
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>> Well, so what's interesting is that I don't know that we would talk about China at this stage because it really is just Shenzhen and Shenzhen is sort of carved out from the rest of the country in terms of having like a total sort of lazair experimentation with capitalism sort of approach and so they're just able to build buildings at an astonishing rate. I mean the so the the unofficial mantra during that time was um uh every every 3 days a new floor and so when you were building factories that's how quickly you were doing things. I don't know what the standard is in Canada but you know it's going to be a lot slower right and so uh the the joke that John Rubenstein makes uh really not a joke I mean it's just the reality is that you know they would build a factory at a time when you and I would still be doing the environmental paperwork. It's tough to compete with that and China was doing that over and over and over. At least Shenzhen was.
主持人:那我的后续问题是,像我们加拿大这样的国家,如何与中国竞争?
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>> Well that's my followup. How do countries like ours, Canada here, compete with China?
Patrick McGee:呃,[嗤笑]老实说,我认为我们不能。嗯,你知道,我想基本的经济理解是比较优势(Comparative Advantage: 指一个国家或地区在生产某种产品时,相对于其他国家或地区具有更低的生产成本或更高的效率),对吧?我们有什么技能,我们有什么资产是应该利用的,因为如果去追求中国擅长的东西,却没有相同的劳动力,没有相同的人口,我们从一开始就会失败。嗯,所以加拿大当然可以做一些事情,我们是一个相当出色的经济体,但要在高端电子产品制造方面与中国人竞争,那只会是自找失败。
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>> Uh, [snorts] honestly, I don't think we can. Um, you know, there's there's there's I guess the basic economic understanding, right, would be comparative advantage. What skills do we have, what assets do we have that we should exploit because going after what China is able to excel at, but without the same uh workforce, without the same population, like we're just going to be failing from the get-go. Um, so there are things of course Canada do and we're pretty we're pretty stellar economy, but competing against the Chinese in high-end electronics manufacturing, um, that would just be an invitation to failure.
主持人:我希望人们能更好地理解这些工厂的巨大规模。我们谈论的是多大的规模?有多少工人?产量是多少?
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>> I want people to get a better understanding of just the sheer magnitude of what one of these factories could do. How big are we talking? How many workers? What's the output here?
Patrick McGee:数字令人震惊,但这甚至不是一个工厂的规模。而是中国提供的是“近邻制造”,在组装地点的周围,有所有其他地方进行塑料注塑成型、金属冲压以及许多其他事情。所以,你知道,我早期的一些章节是关于在台湾制造意味着什么,那里有专业知识,但它只是一个拥有2000万人口的岛屿。所以,他们必须依赖泰国、新加坡、日本以及所有其他地区。而中国能够提供的是一种能力,人们可以从一个工厂到另一个工厂,可能只有10分钟的路程,而不是飞越大洋。这就是为什么如此难以竞争。但如果我们将时间快进到今天,单个工厂,比如中国的郑州(Jung Joe: 指郑州,中国河南省省会,拥有全球最大的iPhone生产基地),它生产了大约一半的iPhone。在高峰期,那里有40万人工作。我的意思是,这简直是令人难以置信的数量。有时人们会想,苹果不是在越南或印度等地进行重大投资吗?我有一些苹果内部的幻灯片,有点过时了,我想是2010年代末的,但它提到在五个非中国国家有9.1万名员工,分布在70家工厂。所以你想象一下,70家工厂相当于9万名工人,而中国的一个工厂就有40万人,对吧?像伯尔晶体(Beal Crystal: 指伯尔晶体,可能为Biel Crystal,一家为苹果提供手机玻璃面板的供应商)这样的公司,生产手机正面的玻璃,仅那一个工厂就有7.2万名工人。所以,中国只是在以一种难以理解的规模运作,更不用说竞争了。他们玩的是不同的游戏。
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>> The numbers are staggering, but it's not even the size of one factory. It's it's the fact that what China offers is is next door manufacturing where around the assembly site you have all these other places doing the plastic injection molding and the metal stamping and and so many other things. And so, you know, some of my early chapters are about what it means to manufacture in Taiwan where you have the expertise, but it's just an island of 20 million people. And so, they have to rely on Thailand, Singapore, Japan, and all these other areas. And so, what China is able to offer is is an ability where people are just going from one factory to another. maybe 10 minutes away rather than flying over an ocean. And that's what's so difficult to compete with. But an individual factory today, if we're fast forwarding, like Jung Joe is is is is a place in China that does about half of all iPhone um production. They've got 400,000 people working there um at peak season. I mean, that's just an incredible amount. And sometimes people think, well, isn't Apple making major investments in Vietnam or India and so forth? And I've got these slides internal to Apple that are a little bit dated. I think they're late 2010s, but it talks about there being 91,000 employees in 70 factories in five non-China countries. And so you think 70 factories equating to 90,000 workers compares with one factory in China that has 400,000, right? Um a company like Beal Crystal, which does some of the um the the glass on the front of the phone, that factory alone has 72,000 workers. So it China is just operating on a scale that is hard to even comprehend, let alone compete with. They're playing a different game.
主持人:是的,他们拥有这种尼采的权力意志(Nietzschean will to power: 德国哲学家尼采提出的概念,指生命体追求力量、扩张和自我超越的根本驱动力)通过制造业来实现。
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>> Yeah, they have this like Nietian will to power through manufacturing.
劳工条件与中国的工业化进程
主持人:我想谈谈劳工问题。一些工厂的条件令人心痛。我们知道人员流动率很高。您谈到了一些,这当然也曾是新闻头条,比如在某个特定工厂周围设置防护网,以防止人们自杀,然而我们仍然需要这些工厂来生产我们喜爱的产品。对吧?这其中存在一个真正的伦理困境。您指的是这个吗?
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>> I want to talk about labor. Um some of the conditions of the factories are harrowing uh to read. We know turnover is high. Um you talk a little bit about and this was of course in headlines of nets being placed around uh one one particular factory to prevent people from taking their lives and yet we still needed the factories to make the products we love. Correct. Like it it like there's a real ethical quandry there. Is is that what you're referring to?
Patrick McGee:嗯,是的。我想从另一个角度来看待这个问题,有点挑衅,但我不想与这些工厂中可能存在的地狱般的工作条件划清界限。但另一方面,你可以看看1970年代末的撒哈拉以南非洲和中国。实际上,中国是两者中更贫穷的。通过这些地狱般的条件,通过这些糟糕的工厂,他们经历了一个“丹麦时刻”(Denzian moment: 指一个国家通过工业化和经济发展实现社会进步和人民生活水平提高的时期),对吧?他们经历了一个我们认为需要150到200年才能完成的工业革命,而他们在一代人的时间里就完成了。所以中国实际上从中获得了很大的好处。这并不是说没有大量的苦难,但你今天更愿意身处撒哈拉以南非洲还是中国?对吧?所以是的,我们有时会把更多的报道资源投入到iPhone工厂发生的事情上,而不是撒哈拉以南非洲。但我认为你必须权衡两者。我可能不会,我绝对会更喜欢在深圳工作,而不是生活在一个没有将工业实力和工业政策用于帮助人民崛起的国家。所以他们也从中获得了很大的好处。
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>> Um, yeah. And I I want to take the other side of it to sort of, you know, be provocative a little bit, but I don't want to distance myself from the hellish conditions that can be in the in these factories. But the other side of it would be, you know, take like subsaharan Africa and China in the late 1970s. China is actually the poorer of the two. >> And through these hellish conditions, through these terrible factories, they've sort of had their denzian moment, right? where they've they've they've gone through like what we would think of as 150 to 200 years of industrial re revolution and they've done it in a single generation. So China's actually gotten a lot out of this. Now that's not to say that there's not a whole lot of suffering, but where would you rather be today in subsaharan Africa or in China? Right? And so yes, we'll sometimes put more reporting resources into what's going on in an iPhone factory than we will in subsaharan Africa. But I think you have to sort of weigh the two against each other. I probably would have not probably I would have absolutely preferred working in Shenzhen than living in a country that wasn't sort of putting industrial might and industrial policy uh behind its people to sort of rise up. So they've gotten a lot out of this as well.
中国加入WTO与西方期望的落空
主持人:很公平。从历史上看,我认为重要的一点是,中国在2001年加入了世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization: 简称WTO,是一个旨在促进国际贸易自由化的国际组织)。对于西方民主国家来说,当我们看待共产主义和资本主义时,我们不一定会认为它们是携手并进的。您能向我们解释一下这似乎是如何运作的吗?
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>> Fair enough. Uh historically I think it's important to note that in 2001 here is China joining the World Trade Organization. To western democracies when we look at communism and capitalism we don't necessarily think they go hand in hand. Can you explain to us how that seemed to work?
Patrick McGee:所以,这个理论,你知道,事后看来显然是错误的,但我尽量不对任何持有这个理论的人怀恨在心,因为当时有很好的证据支持它,那就是中国将灌输小写“l”的自由主义价值观(small-L liberal values: 指强调个人自由、权利和有限政府的政治哲学,区别于大写“L”的特定自由党派),你将拥有一个繁荣的中产阶级,他们不会容忍共产主义独裁。所以,你知道,早在1980年代中期,罗纳德·里根(Ronald Reagan: 第40任美国总统)就在谈论一个所谓的共产主义国家,指的是中国。所以,当时的感觉确实是,看看Pax Americana(Pax Americana: 美国主导的和平时期,通常指二战后美国在全球经济和政治中占据主导地位的时期)做了什么,对吧?像台湾、德国、韩国和日本这样的国家,在某些情况下都是威权主义的,甚至是美国的凶猛敌人。但是,你知道,有句话说,商业不跨越国界,军队才跨越。所以Pax Americana实际上是建立在世界各国相互贸易的基础上的。如果你这样做,那么你就会有一个由价值观相似的国家组成的相互关联的群体。这种模式已经奏效了很多次,所以我们认为中国也会适应。嗯,他们没有。但我因此也不会对任何认为它可能奏效的人进行指责。中国在某种意义上只是太大了。
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>> So the theory that you know clearly is wrong in retrospect, but I I try not to hold a grudge against anyone who held it because I thought there was good evidentiary reasons for it at the time was that China was going to inculcate small L liberal values and you'd have a thriving middle class that just wouldn't tolerate a communist dictatorship. And so, you know, even as early as mid1 1980s, Ronald Reagan was talking about a so-called communist country referring to China. So, the sense really was that look at what Pax Americana has done, right? Countries like Taiwan, Germany, Korea, um, and Japan had all been authoritarian in some instances fierce enemies of the United States. But, uh, you know, there's this phrase where commerce doesn't cross borders, armies do. And so Pax Americana was really based on the, you know, the world's the world's nations trading with one another. And if you did that, then you'd have sort of an interlocking group of of nations with similar values. And so that had worked so many times that we thought China would fit into that as well. Well, they didn't. But I don't therefore cast dispersions on anyone who thought that maybe it would have worked out. China is in a sense just too big
Patrick McGee:呃,它太大了,无法适应一个坦率地说,在人口方面只有其四分之一大小的国家的范式。
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>> uh to sort of fit within the a paradigm of a country that's frankly one quarter its size in terms of people.
乔布斯与库克的领导力差异
主持人:我想谈谈蒂姆·库克。您刚才稍微提到了他。不幸的是,乔布斯在2011年因癌症去世。而自1998年以来一直在公司的蒂姆·库克掌舵。请帮我理解他们领导力之间的区别,因为蒂姆·库克是一个您在故事中提到的“电子表格”人物。他是一个数字型人才。与史蒂夫·乔布斯相比,他在与中国的关系方面,这对他来说是天作之合吗?
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>> I want to talk about um Tim Cook. You mentioned him a little bit off off the top there. Jobs loses his battle unfortunately with cancer dies in 2011. And Tim Cook who's been with a company uh since 1998 at the helm. Help me understand the difference between their leadership because this was Tim was is a person who like you you talk about stories about spreadsheets. He is a numbers person. Is this a match made in heaven uh for him uh in comparison to Steve Jobs in terms of the relationship with China?
Patrick McGee:是的,有时人们认为他们是完全对立的,在某些方面他们确实如此,但值得注意的是,他们的价值观也非常一致,对吧?所以史蒂夫·乔布斯对“B级玩家”零容忍。蒂姆·库克对“B级玩家”也零容忍。史蒂夫·乔布斯是一位产品远见者。蒂姆·库克知道如何将这种远见付诸行动。所以是的,他被称为“电子表格先生”。他可以花几个小时和高管们一起仔细研究所有这些文件。但在某种意义上,这表明他审视所有细节的能力,对吧,就像史蒂夫·乔布斯审视产品制造所有细节的愿景一样,同样错综复杂。所以你可以看到,是的,他们是对立的,但他们也相辅相成。
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>> Yeah, sometimes people think of them as total opposites and in certain ways they are, but it's worth knowing that they also align their values very together, right? So Steve Jobs had no tolerance for B players. Tim Cook has no tolerance for B players. Steve Jobs was a product visionary. Tim Cook knew how to sort of put that in action. So yeah, he is known as Mr. Spreadsheet. Um, and would be able to spend just hours upon hours with executive pouring over all these documents. But in a sense what that's demonstrating is that his capacity to look at all the details, right, was just as intricate and complex as Steve Jobs vision of looking at all the details of how a product was made, right? So you can see how yes, those are opposite, but they also go handinand glove.
主持人:非常感谢。谢谢您,Dan。
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>> Thank you so much. Thank you, Dan.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
人物: Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steve Ballmer, Ronald Reagan, Tim Cook, Deng Xiaoping
公司/组织: Apple, IBM, Foxconn, World Trade Organization
产品/模型: Apple II, Mac, iPod, iPhone
媒体/书籍: Apple in China: The Capture of the World's Greatest Company