早盘市场剧烈波动

Good morning everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market open. 大家早上好。欢迎回到另一期“市场开盘”节目。

We're live, and I can actually say good morning and I can put a little bit of emphasis on the good part because it might actually become a good morning. 我们正在直播，我真的可以说“早上好”，而且可以稍微强调一下“好”这个词，因为它可能真的会变成一个美好的早晨。

It might actually become a good morning if you were up a little bit earlier, like at around 2:45 a.m. Eastern Standard. 如果你起得早一点，比如美东时间凌晨2:45左右，那么这可能确实是一个美好的早晨。

It was not that good of a morning, and you were bracing yourself for a very ugly morning. 那时的早晨可不那么好，你正准备迎接一个非常糟糕的早晨。

And it's still not the most green morning, but my goodness, at 2 to 3:00 a.m. Eastern, it was bad, bro. It was bad. 现在也还不是最“绿”的早晨，但天哪，美东时间凌晨2点到3点的时候，情况非常糟糕，兄弟，简直糟透了。

And if you were awake, you understood. Honestly, if you were awake even a couple hours ago and saw your portfolio, you understood. 如果你当时醒着，你就会明白。说实话，如果你几个小时前醒着，看到你的投资组合，你就会明白。

You got a peak of what happened. If you're just waking up, just getting into it, you just got your coffee, you didn't even check your portfolio, then you might not have even dealt with the volatility of what happened over the past couple hours. 你看到了发生了什么。如果你现在才刚醒，刚开始关注，刚喝上咖啡，甚至还没查看你的投资组合，那么你可能还没有经历过去几个小时发生的市场波动。

But at 2:40 a.m., 3:00 a.m., don't ask me why I was awake. I don't even know why I was awake. 但在凌晨2:40、3:00，别问我为什么醒着，我甚至不知道自己为什么醒着。

But you just start getting notifications. Notifications across the board. Tons of notifications. 但你就是会开始收到通知。铺天盖地的通知。大量的通知。

And these notifications are coming from your brokerage. In this case, it was coming from Robin. 这些通知来自你的券商。这次，它们来自Robin。

And Robin was saying, "This is down 5%. This is down 5%. This is down 3%. This is down 10%. This is down 4%." Robin的通知显示：“这个跌了5%。那个跌了5%。这个跌了3%。那个跌了10%。这个跌了4%。”

And I put out at 2:46 a.m., "If you are awake, don't look at your portfolio." And I genuinely meant it. 我在凌晨2:46发了一条信息：“如果你醒着，别看你的投资组合。”我是真心实意这么说的。

I wasn't even joking. I was like, "Dude, just don't look at it." You will be happier if you don't look at it. 我甚至不是在开玩笑。我当时想：“伙计，就是别看它。”如果你不看，你会更开心。

And I don't know why it was happening. I mean, we're talking about like Friday last week, 3% drawdown type of selloff at 2 a.m. with zero reason other than maybe the regional bank volatility that we'll talk about more that happened yesterday. 我不知道为什么会发生这种情况。我的意思是，我们谈论的是上周五，凌晨2点出现3%跌幅的抛售，除了昨天发生的区域银行波动（我们稍后会详细讨论）之外，没有任何理由。

Maybe October general volatility, maybe options expiring, but it was 2 a.m., you couldn't even give it a reason. Everything was just dumping. 也许是10月份的普遍波动，也许是期权到期，但当时是凌晨2点，你甚至找不到一个理由。所有东西都在暴跌。

特朗普对华关税立场转变提振市场

And 10 minutes ago, literally 10 minutes ago, the S&P 500 (Standard & Poor's 500: 衡量美国500家大型上市公司股票表现的指数) as you can see right here, is now flat on the day. 就在10分钟前，真的就是10分钟前，正如你所看到的，标普500指数 (Standard & Poor's 500: 衡量美国500家大型上市公司股票表现的指数) 今天已经持平。

It's 19 cents from going green. Why? Because Trump had an interview. 它距离转绿只差19美分。为什么？因为特朗普接受了采访。

I don't even know where he had this interview, but we have the quotes of the interview. We don't have the footage yet. 我甚至不知道他在哪里接受的采访，但我们有采访的引述。我们还没有视频片段。

And Trump basically, he might be on Air Force One to be honest, and you have reporters basically posting what he said. 说实话，特朗普可能在空军一号上，记者们基本上都在发布他说了什么。

He basically said, "Yeah, don't worry about the tariffs on China. I'm not actually going to do it." 他基本上说：“是的，别担心对中国的关税。我实际上不会这么做。”

I didn't even take out my toothpaste in the bathroom. I woke up and I was like, "Man, today is just going to be a rough day. You're down a lot of money." 我甚至还没在浴室里拿出牙膏。我醒来时心想：“天哪，今天会是艰难的一天。你亏了很多钱。”

I go to the bathroom. I have my phone with me. I'm opening up the toothpaste, and then everything reverses and it's just massive green candles across the board. 我走进浴室，带着手机。我正打开牙膏，然后一切都反转了，到处都是巨大的绿色K线。

Yes, he said that this morning, and as a result, that is what's created a lot of this rally. 是的，他今天早上说了那番话，结果就是，这引发了大部分的反弹。

So here are the quotes from what he says. These are the quotes we have, but I don't have the footage on this yet. 所以，这是他所说的话的引述。这些是我们有的引述，但我还没有相关的视频片段。

So Trump says on China tariffs, "We have to find a fair deal. We're going to do fine with China. 100% tariff is not sustainable." 特朗普谈到对华关税时说：“我们必须找到一个公平的协议。我们将与中国相处得很好。100%的关税是不可持续的。”

That was the big one that really got the market to be excited and said, "Oh, he's not going to do this tariff thing." 这才是真正让市场兴奋起来的关键点，大家说：“哦，他不会搞这个关税的事情了。”

And then on China tariffs, "It's not sustainable. On China trade, I don't know what's going to happen. China's always looking for an edge. We'll see what happens. And I'm meeting with Xi in two weeks." 然后关于对华关税，他说：“这是不可持续的。关于对华贸易，我不知道会发生什么。中国总是在寻找优势。我们会看看会发生什么。我将在两周内与习主席会面。”

These also aren't the most bullish comments. I mean, he's leaving a lot of uncertainty, right? 这些评论也并非最看涨。我的意思是，他留下了很多不确定性，对吧？

He's not saying like, "Yeah, for sure, China, everything is going to be great." He's like trying to sugarcoat it and say, "We'll be fine. We'll figure something out." 他没有说：“是的，当然，中国，一切都会很棒。”他只是试图粉饰太平，说：“我们会没事的。我们会想办法解决。”

Which is good to hear, but it's not like definitively the most bullish thing in the world, but it's enough to get the market to be like, "Okay, good. We don't have to worry that much anymore." 这听起来不错，但它并非世界上最明确的看涨信号，不过足以让市场觉得：“好吧，不错。我们不用再那么担心了。”

I mean, this is crazy. This is absolutely crazy. 我的意思是，这太疯狂了。这简直是疯了。

I know I'm turning 28 in 10 days, but I feel like I've aged 10 years in the past 10 hours. This is just wild. 我知道我10天后就28岁了，但我觉得过去10小时我老了10岁。这简直太疯狂了。

When I mean at 2:40 a.m. everything collapsed, it was bad. 当我说凌晨2:40一切都崩溃时，那真是糟糕透顶。

And if you were sleeping, then thankfully you didn't have to see it. 如果你当时在睡觉，那么很庆幸你没有看到。

But if you're international, then you know it probably wasn't 2 a.m. for you. It was probably morning, and so you did see it. 但如果你是国际投资者，那么对你来说可能不是凌晨2点。可能已经是早上，所以你确实看到了。

S&P 500 right there going green. And the weird thing is no one had a reason, right? 标普500指数就在那里转绿了。奇怪的是，没有人知道原因，对吧？

So it was just like, "Are we going to have a Black Friday or something? Why is this happening?" 所以当时就像是：“我们要经历黑色星期五了吗？为什么会这样？”

And I guess the reason was China. I guess the market was so upset about China that they needed Trump to just say something positive about China in the morning to fix everything. 我想原因是中国。我想市场对中国如此不满，以至于他们需要特朗普在早上说一些关于中国的积极言论来修复一切。

But I don't know, this is quite incredible. It was one of those dips in the pre-market where you didn't even want to buy the dip. 但我不知道，这相当不可思议。这是盘前那种你甚至不想逢低买入的下跌。

You were just like, "I can't touch this until I know what's happening. Why are we down?" And you had no reason. 你当时只是想：“在我弄清楚发生了什么之前，我不能碰这个。我们为什么会下跌？”而你没有任何理由。

Tesla about to break even. Palantir still down half percent. Robinhood had got to 124, folks. 特斯拉即将收支平衡。Palantir仍下跌0.5%。Robinhood已经跌到124美元了，各位。

And by the way, let me just say this right here. I don't think we're out of the woods. 顺便说一句，我在这里要说的是，我不认为我们已经脱离困境了。

I mean, I genuinely don't know what's going to happen at 9:30. I mean, this thing could be a head fake. It could reverse. 我的意思是，我真的不知道9:30会发生什么。我的意思是，这可能是一个假突破。它可能会反转。

We could go right back to like, I have no idea what could happen going into the market open, but at least we're not going into the market open with the type of [__] we had five hours ago because that was just ugly. 我们可能会回到……我不知道开盘时会发生什么，但至少我们不会像五小时前那样带着那种糟糕的局面进入开盘，因为那真是太难看了。

I mean, again, Hood was trying to potentially break the 120s. Meta was at 690. A lot of that stuff reversing. 我的意思是，Hood（Robinhood）当时可能要跌破120美元。Meta在690美元。很多这些股票都在反转。

Ethereum got to 3500, now it's at 3700. Bitcoin still ugly though. 以太坊跌到3500美元，现在是3700美元。不过比特币仍然很难看。

Bitcoin got to 103, I mean, it bounced from 103 at 105. Cool. It's at 105. 比特币跌到103美元，我的意思是，它从103美元反弹到105美元。不错。现在是105美元。

But this thing was at 126 two weeks ago. So, Bitcoin has completely lost a lot of its momentum. 但两周前它还在126美元。所以，比特币已经完全失去了很多上涨势头。

And by the way, whenever Trump made these comments about China, the price of gold, as you can see on that red candle right there, took a hit. 顺便说一句，每当特朗普发表这些关于中国的评论时，黄金价格，正如你看到那根红色K线所示，都会受到打击。

We're still above 4,300. We were pushing 4,400 before Trump made these China comments. 我们仍然在4300美元以上。在特朗普发表这些关于中国的评论之前，我们曾逼近4400美元。

We were at 4380, as you can see right there. And then Trump made these comments, and that helped it kind of go down. 我们当时在4380美元，正如你所看到的。然后特朗普发表了这些评论，这让它下跌了。

区域银行信贷问题引发担忧

But outside of that, it was ugly. Mass Alos, maybe it was mass Alos. I have no idea. 但除此之外，情况很糟糕。大规模清算，也许是大规模清算。我不知道。

Honestly, last night I just couldn't sleep. It wasn't even like I was up checking my portfolio. 说实话，昨晚我就是睡不着。甚至不是因为我醒着查看我的投资组合。

I just genuinely, you know what I think happened yesterday? I played basketball for the first time in a couple years when I went downstairs to the gym. 我只是真的，你知道我昨天觉得发生了什么吗？我下楼去健身房，几年里第一次打篮球。

And instead of doing my regular workout, I saw people playing basketball in the apartment building. 我没有做我常规的锻炼，而是看到公寓楼里有人在打篮球。

And I've been here for a month, and I've never seen people playing basketball. 我在这里住了一个月，从未见过有人打篮球。

So I immediately went to the basketball court and I was like, "Yeah, you guys play basketball?" "Yeah, every Thursday at 8:00 p.m." I was like, "Oh, perfect." 所以我立刻去了篮球场，我说：“你们打篮球吗？”“是的，每周四晚上8点。”我说：“哦，太棒了。”

So I played basketball. We won the first game. We got our asses handed to us on the second game. We couldn't score a single point. 所以我打了篮球。我们赢了第一场。第二场我们被彻底击败了。我们一分未得。

And so I think I had a ton of energy after playing basketball for literally for the first time in four years. 所以我想，在四年里第一次打篮球之后，我精力充沛。

And I just couldn't fall asleep. And then while I can't fall asleep, I'm getting these notifications. 然后我就是睡不着。然后在我睡不着的时候，我收到了这些通知。

And it's disgusting. Fear and Greed Index (恐惧与贪婪指数: 衡量市场情绪的指标，结合了波动性、动量、期权等多个因素). By the way, we are in extreme fear. 这太令人作呕了。顺便说一句，我们正处于极度恐惧中。

660 on the S&P. 673 was the all-time high, and somehow 660 is extreme fear. 标普500指数在660点。673点是历史最高点，不知何故660点却是极度恐惧。

To give a little context, we were in extreme fear back in April when the S&P 500 was at 5,000, and we were 20% away from all-time highs. 稍微提供一点背景，早在四月份，当标普500指数在5000点时，我们曾处于极度恐惧中，当时我们距离历史最高点还有20%。

We are less than 3% away from all-time highs, and we are somehow in extreme fear, which is kind of crazy. 现在我们距离历史最高点不到3%，但不知何故却处于极度恐惧中，这有点疯狂。

But yeah, it's been a wild morning. It has been an absolutely wild morning. 但，是的，这是一个疯狂的早晨。这确实是一个绝对疯狂的早晨。

Extreme and being barely down is bullish note. Yes. 极度恐慌但跌幅不大是看涨信号。是的。

I mean, look, the Fear and Greed Index is one of the most non-academic ways to judge if you should buy the dip or not buy the dip. 我的意思是，你看，恐惧与贪婪指数是判断你是否应该逢低买入的最非学术性方法之一。

It's just like literally a Fear and Greed Index, but it has worked. 它字面上就是一个恐惧与贪婪指数，但它确实有效。

If you overlay it on the S&P 500, it legit is accurate with when you buy the S&P versus when you should sell the S&P. 如果你把它叠加在标普500指数上，它在何时买入标普和何时卖出标普方面确实是准确的。

So, it's worked historically. And the fact that we're only 3% away from all-time highs and we're at extreme fear, I think, is super bullish. 所以，它在历史上是有效的。而我们距离历史最高点只有3%，却处于极度恐惧中，我认为这是超级看涨的。

It's quite phenomenal to even believe that that's happening. But, it goes to show the resilience of the market. 这简直是惊人的，甚至难以置信会发生这种事。但这表明了市场的韧性。

It goes to show the market's belief in rate cuts. It goes to show the market's belief in earnings potential, which we've already seen good earnings across the board. 这表明市场对降息的信心。这表明市场对盈利潜力的信心，我们已经看到了全面的良好盈利。

And now it's just a question of if this market ends up continuing to get back to those all-time highs. 现在只是一个问题，那就是这个市场最终能否继续回到那些历史高点。

It's a simple but effective metric. That is correct. 这是一个简单但有效的指标。没错。

You were just talking about your, you were just talking about being afraid to look at your portfolio last night. That is extreme fear. Yeah, that's fair. 你刚才还在说你昨晚害怕看你的投资组合。那就是极度恐惧。是的，这很公平。

Well, the thing is we've had such a good two-month run with August and September. 嗯，问题是我们在8月和9月经历了两个月的良好上涨。

And so, my cousin was texting me last night, and she was like, "Dude, I'm down the most I've been down ever." 所以，我表妹昨晚给我发短信，她说：“伙计，我亏损的金额是我有史以来最多的。”

And I was like, "The one thing I can tell you is maybe all the gains you've seen in the past couple months, and this is to myself as well and to everybody here, might not have been as real." 我当时想：“我能告诉你的一件事是，你过去几个月看到的所有收益，对我自己和在座的各位来说，可能都没有那么真实。”

And I think we all kind of knew it to an extent, right? It's not normal to have the types of August and September, particularly August and September. 我认为我们都在某种程度上知道这一点，对吧？8月和9月，尤其是8月和9月，出现那种情况是不正常的。

Like, forget a two-month rally. An August and September two-month rally is not normal because those months historically are weak. 比如，别提两个月的反弹了。8月和9月连续两个月的反弹是不正常的，因为这些月份在历史上通常是疲软的。

For us to ignore all of that and just push through and keep making all-time highs. Again, it's not easy. 我们却忽视所有这些，一路向上，不断创下历史新高。再说一次，这并不容易。

And so, one could argue that maybe those gains weren't even justified in the first place to be able to keep them. 所以，有人可能会争辩说，也许这些收益一开始就不合理，无法持续。

But now that we got them, no one wants to lose them. And so, it does become extreme fear in what is historically the most volatile month of the year, which is October, when you do lose them. 但现在我们得到了它们，没有人想失去。因此，在历史上波动最大的月份——10月，当你确实失去它们时，就会变成极度恐惧。

And now it's just a question of, "Hey, do we have to lose them or can we keep them up?" 现在的问题是：“嘿，我们是必须失去它们，还是能保持住？”

So, we got to see how this ends up playing out. But nonetheless, it has been a pretty wild morning. 所以，我们得看看这最终会如何发展。但无论如何，这是一个相当疯狂的早晨。

So yesterday, another reason we had, actually before we do regional bank, the reason the regional bank stuff was such a big issue is because two companies reported, Key Bank and Zion's Bank. 所以昨天，我们有另一个原因，实际上在我们谈区域银行之前，区域银行之所以成为一个大问题，是因为有两家公司发布了财报：Key Bank和Zions Bank。

And basically they both said, "We have some bad credit." And as a result of having some bad credit, this is the reason the S&P 500 went red yesterday, intraday at 1 p.m. 他们基本上都说：“我们有一些不良信贷。”而由于存在一些不良信贷，这就是标普500指数昨天下午1点盘中转红的原因。

Because basically Zions and Western Alliance said, "You know, we might not know if the credit quality that we have been putting out is the best." 因为Zions和Western Alliance基本上表示：“你知道，我们可能不确定我们一直发放的信贷质量是否是最好的。”

Now, they kind of hedged their bets by saying, "Look, some of the credit issues we're having are one-off events, and they're based on these legal fraud cases that we're dealing with." 现在，他们通过说“看，我们遇到的一些信贷问题是一次性事件，它们是基于我们正在处理的这些法律欺诈案件”来规避风险。

So, it's not necessarily the worst thing in the world, but the market didn't care. The market was like, "Oh, a credit problem. Bet. We're selling everything." 所以，这不一定是世界上最糟糕的事情，但市场并不在乎。市场就像是：“哦，信贷问题。赌一把。我们抛售一切。”

A credit problem. We are selling everything. And so, I guess another reason at 2 a.m. the markets got scared is because maybe there were some fears of this credit stuff, and that created also some pain. 信贷问题。我们正在抛售一切。所以，我想凌晨2点市场恐慌的另一个原因，可能是对这些信贷问题的一些担忧，这也造成了一些痛苦。

Chris was on yesterday for Macro Thursday. We talked about the credit issues, and he was like, "Dude, this feels very isolated because JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan, all these guys were like, 'Credit is fine.'" 克里斯昨天参加了“宏观星期四”节目。我们谈论了信贷问题，他说：“伙计，这感觉非常孤立，因为摩根大通、高盛、美国银行、摩根士丹利，所有这些公司都说‘信贷状况良好’。”

In fact, they said credit delinquency rates are coming in lower than expected. 事实上，他们说信贷拖欠率低于预期。

So, the idea that the balance sheets are horrible for these banks, the idea that their underwriting is horrible, I mean, it really does feel isolated to a couple banks. 所以，认为这些银行的资产负债表很糟糕，认为他们的承销很糟糕，我的意思是，这确实感觉只局限于几家银行。

Reminds me of Silicon Valley Bank collapse in 2023. People thought there was a bank contagion that would spread to like the JPMorgan's of the world. 这让我想起了2023年硅谷银行的倒闭。人们认为会有一场银行传染病蔓延到像摩根大通这样的全球性银行。

JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, they become too big literally to fail. Could they fail? Yes. But I mean they become too big to fail. 摩根大通、高盛、美国银行，它们实际上已经大到不能倒。它们会倒闭吗？是的。但我的意思是它们已经大到不能倒。

So the regional banks could fail, and I don't think anyone would really notice. Those big banks would consume them, and things would go on. 所以区域银行可能会倒闭，我认为没有人会真正注意到。那些大银行会吞并它们，然后一切照旧。

This is exactly what happened in March of 2023. So it was kind of weird that the market got so upset yesterday. 这正是2023年3月发生的情况。所以昨天市场如此不安有点奇怪。

But it also made sense because any level of credit problems in the country, that could cause a bank run, that could cause a bunch of different things. 但这也说得通，因为国内任何程度的信贷问题，都可能引发银行挤兑，可能引发一系列不同的事情。

But I don't think that was the reason we sold off at 2 a.m. It might have contributed to some of the perception. 但我不认为这是我们凌晨2点抛售的原因。它可能助长了一些看法。

It's just it's hard to imagine that that's a structural reason that could create as much pain as it did, but that was one of the issues that we had. 只是很难想象这是一个结构性原因，能造成如此大的痛苦，但这是我们面临的问题之一。

TFC had their earnings this morning. So, Q3 provision for credit losses 436 versus 484. That's way better than expected. TFC今天早上发布了财报。第三季度信贷损失准备金为4.36亿美元，而预期为4.84亿美元。这远好于预期。

Fifth Third credit for provision losses 197 versus 239. Again, way better than expected. Fifth Third的信贷损失准备金为1.97亿美元，而预期为2.39亿美元。同样，远好于预期。

And then RF 105 versus 129. So you had a bunch of regional banks this morning report their earnings, and their provision for credit losses was way better than expected, which is also another reason to not be that afraid of the regional banks. 然后RF是1.05亿美元，预期是1.29亿美元。所以今天早上有很多区域银行公布了财报，他们的信贷损失准备金远低于预期，这也是另一个不必那么害怕区域银行的原因。

You can see right there TFC is up in the pre-markets. And again, regional banks are banks that are in a certain region of the country, and they're not like the city banks or the Wells Fargos of the world, but they serve a demographic that is specific to their location. 你可以看到TFC在盘前上涨。再说一次，区域银行是位于国家特定区域的银行，它们不像城市银行或富国银行那样，但它们服务于特定地理位置的人群。

And the reason for that is because if you're a local laundromat in Georgia, you're not going to go to JPMorgan to get a loan. 原因在于，如果你是佐治亚州的一家当地洗衣店，你不会去找摩根大通贷款。

You're going to go to your local bank, and these local banks, Truist is actually like, you know, it's the seventh largest bank in the country, but it is a regional bank. 你会去找你的当地银行，而这些当地银行，Truist实际上是，你知道，它是全国第七大银行，但它是一家区域银行。

So if the big banks are not showing these credit issues, why are the little banks having massive credit issues? 所以如果大银行没有出现这些信贷问题，为什么小银行会有大规模的信贷问题呢？

Well, maybe they're not. Maybe it's isolated to a couple instances. 嗯，也许他们没有。也许这只是孤立的几个案例。

And that's why I think the regional banking piece is, if that's the thing that tanks us in 2025, regional banks, if that's really the thing that, that would be a surprise. 这就是为什么我认为区域银行业务，如果这是2025年导致我们崩溃的原因，区域银行，如果这真的是那个原因，那将是一个意外。

It just feels not that believable because the big banks would show some cracks before the regional banks show these massive dire structural warnings that everyone has to run for the hills for. 这感觉不太可信，因为大银行会在区域银行出现这些大规模、可怕的结构性警告之前，先露出一些裂缝，让所有人不得不逃离。

And as a result, hopefully it's not that big of a deal. Also SoFi, a lot of questions came yesterday on like, "Is SoFi going to be affected?" 因此，希望这不会是件大事。此外，关于SoFi，昨天有很多问题，比如“SoFi会受到影响吗？”

SoFi fell to 2550 in the pre-market. SoFi right there 2631. I think the answer is no because SoFi's credit underwriting is phenomenal. SoFi在盘前跌至2550。SoFi现在是2631。我认为答案是否定的，因为SoFi的信贷承销非常出色。

And so I really wouldn't be worried about SoFi. Tanner did a video yesterday on SoFi, and he said that he has some data he's looking at that says SoFi is going to have their first million-member quarter this quarter in Q3, which would be quite incredible. 所以我真的不会担心SoFi。Tanner昨天做了一个关于SoFi的视频，他说他正在看一些数据显示SoFi将在本季度（第三季度）迎来第一个百万会员季度，这将是相当不可思议的。

SoFi is really restrictive with loans. They're not going to give you a loan just because they want to increase their loan sheet. SoFi在贷款方面非常严格。他们不会仅仅为了增加贷款规模而给你贷款。

So I do think that SoFi is going to be okay. I don't think this regional stuff is as endemic as some people may think. 所以我确实认为SoFi会没事。我不认为这些区域性问题像有些人可能认为的那样普遍。

中美贸易对话与市场情绪

We got an update right here on Bent and what he's going to be doing with China today. So, let's get that update, then we'll keep going from there. 我们这里有关于本特今天将如何处理中国问题的最新消息。所以，让我们先了解一下最新情况，然后继续。

Joe: Joe, I can report to you exclusively today that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant and Chinese Vice Premier Ho Leang are going to speak by phone to discuss the ongoing trade negotiations between the United States and China. 乔: 乔，我今天可以独家向你报告，美国财政部长斯科特·贝桑特和中国副总理何亮将通电话，讨论中美之间正在进行的贸易谈判。

I don't have any other details here on the timing of this phone call today, the content of it, or what the next steps will be. 我没有关于今天这次通话时间、内容或下一步行动的任何其他细节。

But the fact that they are going to have this phone conversation is notable because earlier in the week, the Treasury Secretary declined to say specifically at his press conference that he would be speaking to his Chinese counterpart. 但他们将进行这次电话交谈的事实值得注意，因为本周早些时候，财政部长在他的新闻发布会上拒绝明确表示他将与中方同行通话。

He said that the Chinese are in town for the IMF (International Monetary Fund: 国际货币基金组织) gatherings, that there are certain dialogues going back and forth, but he didn't say specifically that he and Huli Fang would be speaking. 他说中方人员正在城里参加国际货币基金组织 (International Monetary Fund: 国际货币基金组织) 的会议，双方正在进行一些对话，但他没有明确说他将与何立方通话。

Now we can report to you that they will be speaking on the phone today. And the question is, whether that represents some kind of a breakthrough in these this flare up of tensions that we've seen over the past week, or at least maybe a platform where some kind of a breakthrough could happen. 现在我们可以向你报告，他们今天将通电话。问题是，这是否代表着过去一周我们所见的紧张局势升级中的某种突破，或者至少是一个可能发生某种突破的平台。

Amit: Okay, I mean not bad. So this is also probably coming down the markets. The scent, and the Chinese Vice Premier will be talking today based on those comments. 阿米特: 好的，我的意思是，还不错。所以这可能也会影响市场。根据这些评论，本特和中国副总理今天将进行对话。

And again, China, I forgot to mention this, China yesterday after the market open, they put out a statement with their foreign ministry. 再说一次，中国，我忘了提这一点，中国昨天开盘后，通过外交部发表了一份声明。

And they said that decoupling from the United States would be irrational or not realistic. 他们说与美国脱钩是不理智或不现实的。

So, it's not like China is trying to just separate from the US. They know that their economy cannot survive without us. 所以，中国并不是想与美国彻底分离。他们知道他们的经济离不开我们。

And so, this why it just this feels so stupid. It's like if the market's going down from China and the US when we know that China and the US is inevitable, that relationship will have to work out at some point, then this is all a buy the dip opportunity. 所以，这就是为什么这感觉如此愚蠢。就像如果市场因为中美关系而下跌，而我们知道中美关系是不可避免的，这种关系迟早会解决，那么这都是逢低买入的机会。

Unless there's another reason that's more structural for why the market's taking a hit. 除非有更结构性的原因导致市场受到打击。

And quite frankly, I think it's valuations have just run up a lot. These rare earth stocks are up 5% a day. 坦率地说，我认为是估值涨得太多了。这些稀土股票每天上涨5%。

These Bitcoin miner stocks are up 10% a day. These nuclear stocks are up 30% a week. 这些比特币矿业股每天上涨10%。这些核能股每周上涨30%。

And so maybe the market is just looking for some type of reason to bring a little bit more calmness to all the things that are running, and they're using China as an excuse, but it should end up being a buy the dip. 所以也许市场只是在寻找某种理由，让所有正在上涨的股票稍微平静下来，他们正在利用中国作为借口，但最终这应该是一个逢低买入的机会。

Now, does that buy the dip result in all those high-flying high beta names getting back to their all-time highs when things recover? I don't know. 现在，这种逢低买入是否会导致那些高涨的高贝塔股票在市场复苏时回到历史高点？我不知道。

Honestly, it probably does. If everything rallies, then those probably come back. 老实说，很可能。如果所有股票都反弹，那么那些股票可能也会回来。

Or does the market say, "All right, Nvidia gets to go back to 195, but Bit Farms doesn't get to go back to seven bucks." 或者市场会说：“好吧，英伟达可以回到195美元，但Bit Farms不能回到7美元。”

We're going to see. But overall, it does feel like markets are just exhausted, and they're using anything to give them an excuse. 我们将拭目以待。但总的来说，市场确实感觉已经筋疲力尽，他们正在利用任何借口。

Yeah, gold is down for the first time today in a long time. And that's based on that China headline that came out as well. 是的，黄金今天很久以来第一次下跌。这也是基于中国方面传出的消息。

World trade officer chief have spoken with China, US to urge the escalation of trade tensions. Both sides understand the importance of dialogue. 世界贸易官员负责人已与中国对话，美国敦促缓解贸易紧张局势。双方都理解对话的重要性。

See, that's more de-escalation, which is also really important. 看，这更多是降级，这也非常重要。

Also, Hasset was on this morning, Kevin Hasset, the national economic adviser, and he basically said that we're going to get a deal with China in some way. 此外，国家经济顾问凯文·哈塞特今天早上也参加了节目，他基本上说我们将以某种方式与中国达成协议。

The summary of what he said is, "We'll figure out how to deal with China." 他所说内容的总结是：“我们会想办法处理与中国的关系。”

So, I really don't think this is going to be that big of a deal, but we're going to have to see. 所以，我真的不认为这会是件大事，但我们拭目以待。

China says China's upset because Bent might punch them in the face. Yeah, maybe that's why maybe that's why they're finally negotiating. They don't want to get punched. 中国说中国很不高兴，因为本特可能会揍他们。是的，也许这就是他们最终谈判的原因。他们不想挨揍。

But dude, I still refuse to believe Basent is out here punching people. Like, Bent is a teddy bear. 但伙计，我仍然不相信贝桑特会在这里打人。本特就像个泰迪熊。

You're telling me that guy's punching people? You're telling me this guy is out here punching Elon Musk? What are we talking about? 你告诉我那家伙会打人？你告诉我这家伙会去揍埃隆·马斯克？我们在说什么呢？

黄金与债券收益率的异动

The 10-year below four, that is also very bullish. Chris and I were talking about that yesterday. 10年期国债收益率跌破4%，这也非常看涨。克里斯和我昨天谈论过这个。

I mean, you can interpret this as bearish, but I think it is really good for the 10-year to come down. 我的意思是，你可以将其解读为看跌，但我认为10年期国债收益率下降确实是好事。

Obviously, that decreases the cost for the national debt, our borrowing cost. 显然，这降低了国债的成本，我们的借贷成本。

This is something that Trump has been trying to do since January, get this 10-year to come down. 这是特朗普自一月以来一直试图做的事情，让这个10年期国债收益率下降。

And the fact that the market's not crashing, like, we're talking about 10-15% decline in the 10-year coming down is good. 而且市场没有崩溃，比如，我们谈论的10年期国债收益率下降10-15%是好事。

That means people are running to bonds as a form of safety, right? Because when you buy bonds, that's when the yields come down. 这意味着人们正在转向债券作为一种安全形式，对吧？因为当你购买债券时，收益率就会下降。

But gold going up and bond yields coming down is weird because it means people are buying gold, which signals they're afraid of inflation, right? 但黄金上涨和债券收益率下降很奇怪，因为这意味着人们正在购买黄金，这表明他们害怕通货膨胀，对吧？

You usually buy gold as a hedge to inflation, a hedge to geopolitical instability, a hedge to market volatility. 你通常购买黄金是为了对冲通货膨胀、地缘政治不稳定和市场波动。

But you buy treasuries, or you know, one could say you buy the 10-year as a way to lock in a good rate because you think that rates are going to come down, aka inflation potentially comes down, and you don't need to command more from the treasury for the cost of capital because you have a faith at least to some extent that inflation will start to dissipate, which is the whole reason why rates will come down in the first place. 但你购买国债，或者可以说你购买10年期国债是为了锁定一个好的利率，因为你认为利率会下降，也就是说通货膨胀可能会下降，你不需要向财政部要求更高的资金成本，因为你至少在某种程度上相信通货膨胀会开始消散，这正是利率会下降的根本原因。

So, it's a little bit of a weird dynamic. You usually don't see both of those things happening, gold going up and bond yields coming down, but that is happening. 所以，这有点奇怪。你通常不会看到这两种情况同时发生：黄金上涨和债券收益率下降，但这确实正在发生。

Maybe that changes if gold ends up taking a bit of a breather. But I mean, for gold to fall back down to 3500, 3600 would be a dramatic decline. 也许如果黄金稍作喘息，情况会改变。但我的意思是，黄金跌回3500、3600美元将是剧烈的下跌。

Year to date, gold is up 61%. So it would be hard to see it come down that much. 今年迄今，黄金上涨了61%。所以很难看到它下跌那么多。

So that is another weird dynamic that's kind of going on in the broader market as well. 所以这也是更广泛市场中正在发生的另一个奇怪的动态。

市场恐慌指数VIX飙升

And I guess we're going to have to see how that plays out. The VIX (Volatility Index: 衡量市场预期未来波动性的指数，常被称为“恐慌指数”) did close above 25 yesterday. 我想我们得看看这会如何发展。VIX指数 (Volatility Index: 衡量市场预期未来波动性的指数，常被称为“恐慌指数”) 昨天收盘时确实高于25。

Usually the VIX doesn't close above 25. It's happened four times over the past couple years. 通常VIX不会收盘高于25。过去几年只发生过四次。

So, one could argue that people are shorting the VIX as well today, and that could be hurting some of the volatility. 所以，有人可能会认为今天人们也在做空VIX，这可能会损害一些波动性。

Palantir与政府业务及未来展望

All right, so that's what we had with Bent, Trump, China. I mean, those were the main headlines. We talked a bit more about the regional banks. We talked about gold. We'll see what happens. 好的，这就是我们关于本特、特朗普、中国的话题。我的意思是，那些是主要头条新闻。我们更多地谈论了区域银行。我们谈论了黄金。我们将拭目以待。

Here's something that people might not have seen. And this was pretty cool to see last night. Ladies and gentlemen, got Mr. Karp and 47. So there you go. 这里有一些大家可能没看到的东西。昨晚看到这个挺酷的。各位，卡普先生和47号。就是这样。

There is Karp and Trump together. If you look closely, you know that Karp likes his Diet Coke. Look at that. And Trump is also a fan of Diet Coke. They got the Coke right there. 卡普和特朗普在一起。如果你仔细看，你会知道卡普喜欢他的健怡可乐。看那个。特朗普也是健怡可乐的粉丝。他们那里有可乐。

And there's Karp drinking the Coke. And then there's another picture. It's pretty cool. 卡普正在喝可乐。然后还有另一张照片。这很酷。

I mean, obviously, we know that Palantir has an important relationship with the United States government. 我的意思是，显然，我们知道Palantir与美国政府有着重要的关系。

They've been obviously growing their government business rapidly, and whoever is in office, as a shareholder, I want the company to work with whoever is in office. 他们显然一直在迅速发展政府业务，无论谁执政，作为股东，我希望公司能与执政者合作。

And Palantir has been working with the government since Obama was president. 而Palantir自奥巴马担任总统以来就一直在与政府合作。

So, at the end of the day, Democrat or Republican, you need to have a good relationship with the administration. 所以，归根结底，无论是民主党还是共和党，你都需要与政府保持良好的关系。

And it looks like Palantir is continuing to expand that relationship. So, that is one thing we have. 看起来Palantir正在继续扩大这种关系。所以，这是我们所看到的一点。

Palantir earnings is November 3rd. We're going to see what happens with Palantir on that earnings. Palantir的财报在11月3日。我们将看看Palantir在这次财报中会发生什么。

I mean, I think they're going to put up a pretty damn good quarter. 我的意思是，我认为他们会交出一份相当不错的季度报告。

And if this macro China stuff is not that big of a deal going into November, look, I don't want to say Palantir is going to 200, but I do think there is a world in which Palantir breaks through that all-time high at 190. 如果到11月，这些宏观的中国问题不是什么大问题，看，我不想说Palantir会涨到200美元，但我确实认为Palantir有可能突破190美元的历史高点。

Now, do they need to, is it justified from value? No. 现在，他们需要这样做吗？从价值角度来看合理吗？不。

They don't need to do anything. I mean that like the stock is already pricing at a lot of stuff. 他们不需要做任何事情。我的意思是，这只股票已经包含了许多预期。

But if they put up one of those types of quarters that's one of the best quarters we're seeing in software in the entire market, I think it has a chance to do well. 但如果他们交出那种在整个软件市场中我们所见过的最佳季度报告之一，我认为它有机会表现出色。

I think it has a chance to do well. And I was talking about this with Steve yesterday. 我认为它有机会表现出色。我昨天和史蒂夫谈论过这个。

I mean, we were looking at Salesforce numbers. I kind of came to the conclusion, and Salesforce increased their guidance, and they said they'll get to a rule of 50, etc. 我的意思是，我们当时在看Salesforce的数据。我得出了一个结论，Salesforce提高了他们的指引，他们说他们会达到50法则等等。

软件行业中的Palantir：独特的增长故事

I think Palantir is the only exciting story in software right now. Like what other story in software is as exciting as Palantir? 我认为Palantir是目前软件领域唯一令人兴奋的故事。还有哪个软件故事能像Palantir一样令人兴奋？

It's not Salesforce. It's not Snowflake. It's not Data Dog. It's not GitLab. It's not CrowdStrike. 不是Salesforce。不是Snowflake。不是Data Dog。不是GitLab。也不是CrowdStrike。

None of these stocks are growing. None of these companies are growing at the rate Palantir is growing at. 这些股票都没有增长。这些公司都没有以Palantir的速度增长。

None of them are getting the use cases that Palantir is getting through AI (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能). 它们都没有获得Palantir通过人工智能 (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能) 获得的用例。

And then none of them are actually showing the potential to expand to potentially become a trillion-dollar company at the scale that Palantir is doing it at. 而且它们都没有真正展现出以Palantir目前的速度扩张并可能成为万亿美元公司的潜力。

It's just hard to find stories that are that exciting as Palantir. And as a result, Palantir gets a premium. 很难找到像Palantir这样令人兴奋的故事。因此，Palantir获得了溢价。

But, we're going to have to see how that premium ultimately. Rubric's a great company, but it's not as exciting as Palantir. 但是，我们最终将不得不看看这种溢价如何。Rubric是一家很棒的公司，但它不如Palantir那么令人兴奋。

When people think like, "Hey, can you grow 50% compounded or at least 40% compounded or even 35% compounded over the next couple years?" 当人们思考：“嘿，你能在未来几年实现50%的复合增长，或者至少40%的复合增长，甚至35%的复合增长吗？”

I don't think there's that many companies that are actually guiding to be able to do that. 我认为没有那么多公司真正给出能做到这一点的指引。

And Palantir hasn't guided for the next couple years to do that, but they only have 900 customers. Palantir在未来几年也没有给出这样的指引，但他们只有900个客户。

I mean it would not be crazy for them to actually give a guide with those stocks. 我的意思是，他们真的给出这些股票的指引并不会很疯狂。

Speaker: He's a buyer of the dip. No surprise. Very bullish. But made the point that they're showing mild concern. 发言人: 他是逢低买入者。不足为奇。非常看涨。但指出他们表现出轻微担忧。

You know, we're not seeing any kind of like screaming warning signs, which is a place you would see it in the high yield market. 你知道，我们没有看到任何尖叫的警告信号，而这在高收益市场 (High Yield Market: 指发行高风险、高回报债券的市场) 中是常见的。

The options adjusted spread (期权调整利差: 衡量债券收益率与无风险利率之间差异的指标，并考虑了嵌入期权的价值) is at 325 wider, which is off the August lows, but is not even close to how wide it blew out during the April 2nd liberation day. 期权调整利差 (Options Adjusted Spread: 衡量债券收益率与无风险利率之间差异的指标，并考虑了嵌入期权的价值) 扩大到325个基点，虽然脱离了8月份的低点，但与4月2日解放日期间的扩大程度相去甚远。

When there was a big cause. 当时有一个大原因。

Speaker: Well, I don't think anybody's expecting a massive default cycle here, right, Sarah? I don't think that's part of what the story is. 发言人: 嗯，我认为没有人会在这里预期大规模的违约周期，对吧，莎拉？我不认为这是故事的一部分。

It goes more to, "Well, have underwriting standards fallen to a certain extent? Were we going to see more fraud because things were not disclosed?" 这更多是关于：“承销标准是否在一定程度上有所下降？我们会不会看到更多的欺诈行为，因为有些事情没有披露？”

And ultimately the banks were not looking as closely as perhaps they should have at some of the portfolios or things that they didn't know very well could be, but it's not a systemic risk for the system. 最终，银行可能没有像他们应该的那样仔细审查一些投资组合或他们不甚了解的事物，但这并非系统性的风险。

Speaker: No, wouldn't seem to be. 发言人: 不，似乎不是。

Speaker: There's even a case that's made about high yield spreads, right? That's public debt that essentially the riskier stuff is gone elsewhere outside of those types of bonds. 发言人: 甚至有关于高收益利差的说法，对吧？那是公共债务，本质上风险较高的部分已经转移到这类债券之外的其他地方了。

And so therefore, that's kind of flattering the credit picture a little bit. 因此，这在一定程度上美化了信贷状况。

So again, I think we're all on the same page, and it's not like there's any kind of real smoldering disaster that's going on here. 所以，再说一次，我想我们都意见一致，这里并没有什么真正的潜在灾难正在发生。

But it's, you know, when you have the market that's sort of priced itself for a pretty pristine outlook, you're going to have a little bit of a 但是，你知道，当市场已经为自己设定了一个相当完美的预期时，你就会遇到一些小问题。

Speaker: Well, and that so what, so what did Zions exactly announce? What was it? $50 million, $60 million hit, and then they took a billion dollars off the market cap. 发言人: 那么，Zions到底宣布了什么？是什么？5000万、6000万美元的损失，然后他们的市值蒸发了10亿美元。

Speaker: Yeah. Which is why you've got some upgrades. I know one of them today billion dollar market cap loss over 50 million seems a loss seems excessive. 发言人: 是的。这就是为什么你看到了一些评级上调。我知道今天其中一个，5000万美元的损失导致10亿美元的市值蒸发，这似乎损失过大。

Speaker: Yeah. And that was that was bared as well saying that. So 发言人: 是的。那也是赤裸裸地说出来的。所以

Speaker: There's not a lot of deep conviction or trust in regional banks as a category, right? They're not like there's nothing special about most of them, and so they are just kind of broad sectoral cyclical plays. 发言人: 区域银行作为一个类别，并没有太多深层次的信念或信任，对吧？它们没有什么特别之处，所以它们只是一种广泛的行业周期性投资。

So I do think that there's a self-first instinct whether it's justified or not. 所以我确实认为存在一种自保的本能，无论它是否合理。

Speaker: But I thought they were special now because now they can merge and they can 发言人: 但我以为他们现在很特别，因为他们现在可以合并了，他们可以

Speaker: No, no, but they're special in the sense of they have options. But I mean in terms of like, "Oh, Zions has IP that we really want to own, and it deserves a premium." 发言人: 不，不，但他们的特别之处在于他们有选择。但我的意思是，就“哦，Zions拥有我们真正想拥有的知识产权，它值得溢价”而言。

I mean no offense. By the way, Zions and Western Alliance were two of the banks that were certainly every day were getting crushed during the mini banking crisis of March of 2023. 我的意思是无意冒犯。顺便说一句，Zions和Western Alliance是2023年3月小型银行危机期间每天都遭受重创的两家银行。

区域银行的脆弱性与流动性问题

Amit: Okay. So, let me know if the audio is okay, guys. But, basically the argument that they are making right there is that the regionals are the first thing that will be sold. 阿米特: 好的。所以，各位，如果音频没问题请告诉我。但他们基本上提出的论点是，区域银行将是第一个被抛售的。

And the reason the regionals are the first thing that will be sold is because people don't have that much faith in the regionals. 而区域银行之所以是第一个被抛售的，是因为人们对区域银行没有那么多的信心。

Now, I don't think people don't have faith in the regionals. I think in a portfolio, same thing like with Bitcoin. 现在，我不认为人们对区域银行没有信心。我认为在投资组合中，就像比特币一样。

When people look for liquidity, they sell first and investigate later. 当人们寻求流动性时，他们会先卖出，然后再调查。

And unfortunately, that's been happening with Bitcoin and all the other crypto assets. 不幸的是，比特币和所有其他加密资产都发生了这种情况。

But, yeah, it's understandable that people sell off regionals in terms of being able to raise capital. 但是，是的，人们在筹集资金方面抛售区域银行是可以理解的。

Zions announcing a $50 million charge off and then getting a billion dollar wiped out of their market cap. That's obviously fear of like what could happen. Zions宣布核销5000万美元，然后市值蒸发10亿美元。这显然是对可能发生的事情的恐惧。

But if it's not a structural problem with credit, then it becomes a nothing burger. 但如果这不是信贷的结构性问题，那么它就变得无关紧要。

Especially with the regional banks that reported today, their credit provision losses were way lower than expected, as we talked about 10 minutes ago. 特别是今天公布财报的区域银行，他们的信贷准备金损失远低于预期，正如我们10分钟前讨论的那样。

So again, it just doesn't feel like you should run for the hills because regionals suck. 所以，再说一次，这并不意味着你应该因为区域银行表现不佳而逃之夭夭。

Maybe there's something else going on, but I don't think that should be the broader problem with the market. 也许还有其他事情发生，但我不认为这应该是市场更广泛的问题。

比特币的停滞与对冲属性争议

So that's what we got with regionals. Now, Bitcoin, unfortunately, has just been horrible. 这就是我们关于区域银行的情况。现在，比特币不幸地一直表现糟糕。

I would love to know in the chat, let me do the red or green poll as well for today. 我很想在聊天中知道，今天我也做个红绿投票吧。

Why do we think that Bitcoin and Ethereum, or let's just say Bitcoin in general because Ethereum quite frankly follows Bitcoin. 我们为什么认为比特币和以太坊，或者我们只说比特币，因为坦率地说，以太坊是跟随比特币的。

Why do we think that Bitcoin is not moving? Why do we think that this thing has been as ugly as it's been over the past couple weeks? 我们为什么认为比特币没有波动？我们为什么认为过去几周它一直表现如此糟糕？

Green or red today? Let's see. 今天涨还是跌？我们看看。

This is supposed to be October by the way. This might be if Bitcoin can't get back to, let me get the exact price right here. 顺便说一句，现在应该是10月。如果比特币无法回到，让我看看确切的价格。

Bitcoin needs to get back to 115,000 for us to not have the second green October or second red October in the past 12 years. 比特币需要回到11.5万美元，这样我们才不会在过去12年里迎来第二个绿色10月或第二个红色10月。

Usually, there's only been one October that Bitcoin has been red in the past 10 years. 通常，在过去10年里，比特币只有一个10月是下跌的。

This would be the second if we don't get back to 115 by the end of the month. So, we have 14 days to get there. 如果本月底我们不能回到11.5万美元，这将是第二次。所以，我们还有14天时间。

Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't. But I mean, it's kind of wild, right? 也许会，也许不会。但我的意思是，这有点疯狂，对吧？

It's supposed to be October, supposed to be Bitcoin getting momentum. It's just not. 现在应该是10月，比特币本应获得上涨势头。但它就是没有。

It's just not getting there. People are preparing cash. People are afraid of geopolitics. Binance had a lot of issues. That's fair. 它就是没有达到。人们正在准备现金。人们害怕地缘政治。币安有很多问题。这很公平。

Risk off. People are pumping gold instead. Top is in. 规避风险。人们反而都在买黄金。顶部已现。

I mean, you got your Tom Lee saying 250 at the end of year. We topped out at 126. That would be a little ugly. 我的意思是，汤姆·李说年底会到250美元。我们最高点是126美元。那会有点难看。

Maybe it's waiting for rate cuts as well. Maybe that's what's happening. 也许它也在等待降息。也许这就是正在发生的事情。

Yeah, opex (options expiration: 期权到期日) is going to be important today as well. So, options are expiring across the board. 是的，期权到期日 (options expiration: 期权到期日) 今天也很重要。所以，期权全面到期。

You're going to have probably hundreds of billions of dollars of options expire because today's a Friday, so that could also just make things a little weird today. 今天可能会有数千亿美元的期权到期，因为今天是周五，所以这可能也会让今天的情况有点奇怪。

It's weird. It hasn't been like what people thought it would be. It really hasn't. But we got to see. 这很奇怪。它并没有像人们想象的那样。真的没有。但我们得看看。

Bitcoin is not a real hedge like gold. I mean, objectively, this is not even debatable. 比特币不像黄金那样是真正的对冲工具。我的意思是，客观地说，这甚至没有争议。

Bitcoin is not becoming a hedge. It is becoming a hedge long term if you disagree with the currency debasement issues. 比特币并没有成为对冲工具。如果你不同意货币贬值问题，它从长期来看会成为对冲工具。

And that means you buy it and you just don't look at it. But as a manager of the portfolio that adopts a strategy weekly, monthly or daily, it's not a hedge. 这意味着你买入它，然后就不去看它。但作为一个每周、每月或每天都采用策略的投资组合经理，它不是对冲工具。

It becomes the first thing you liquidate. We're seeing it in the price. 它成了你第一个清算的东西。我们从价格中看到了这一点。

Whenever bad news comes out, this thing goes down and it eventually recovers over time. 每当坏消息传出，这东西就会下跌，然后随着时间推移最终会恢复。

But it is quite fascinating to see the year it's had. And as a result, MicroStrategy has been horrible this year. 但看到它今年的表现，确实相当引人入胜。结果，MicroStrategy今年表现糟糕。

MicroStrategy had 278 right here. It got to what 271 in the pre-markets at one point. MicroStrategy在这里是278。一度在盘前达到了271。

个人投资策略与持仓分析

If you've owned Bitcoin for at least four years, yes, you've done okay. It's just in the short term, it doesn't operate as that easy hedge. 如果你持有比特币至少四年，是的，你做得还不错。只是短期内，它不像那么容易的对冲工具。

Amit, are you grabbing more Grab? Yeah, I bought in the pre-markets already. I bought at 565 in the pre-markets. 阿米特，你还在买Grab吗？是的，我已经在盘前买入了。我在盘前以565美元买入。

I mean, this is becoming stupid in my opinion. Based on the work I've done on analyzing the valuation of the company, this is just becoming dumb. 我的意思是，在我看来，这变得很愚蠢。根据我对公司估值分析所做的工作，这简直是愚蠢。

But I also understand that if the S&P takes a hit, if Robinhood takes a hit, if SoFi takes a hit, if AMD takes a hit, AMD from 240 to 230, Grab's going to take a hit, regardless of if it's justified or not. 但我也明白，如果标普受到打击，如果Robinhood受到打击，如果SoFi受到打击，如果AMD受到打击（AMD从240跌到230），Grab也会受到打击，无论是否合理。

And so to me, this is when I double down on the names I'm convicted in. And I also double down on things that I know are safe. 所以对我来说，这就是我加倍投资我坚信的股票的时候。我也加倍投资那些我知道是安全的股票。

This company has 7 billion in cash and profitable. It's safer to me. It's not going to run like an Oaklow, but I can sleep well at night knowing I have those shares. 这家公司有70亿美元现金并且盈利。对我来说更安全。它不会像Oaklow那样飙升，但我晚上可以睡个好觉，知道我持有这些股票。

And I think at this time of the year, it's really important to double down on stuff that you think is safe. 我认为在一年中的这个时候，加倍投资你认为安全的资产非常重要。

Amazon also very safe. I bought the dip yesterday on Amazon 21455. 亚马逊也非常安全。我昨天在亚马逊21455美元时逢低买入了。

I think my cost base is now 217, but it's safer to me than a lot of other players in the market. 我想我现在的基础成本是217美元，但对我来说，它比市场上许多其他参与者更安全。

Andrew Dutam sold Hims yesterday. He sold a decent chunk of shares. 安德鲁·杜塔姆昨天卖出了Hims的股票。他卖掉了相当大一部分股份。

And it was just weird because he sold shares, but he also posted this thing yesterday. 这很奇怪，因为他卖了股票，但昨天他也发了这条消息。

This "I" emoji on someone saying the Hims squeeze is there. And then he files to sell $11 million worth of shares. 有人说Hims正在被逼空，他发了一个“我”的表情符号。然后他提交文件出售价值1100万美元的股票。

Now look, a lot of people didn't really, well, I could just say a lot of people in the Hims community didn't love my comments that I made yesterday saying that I thought it was cringe. 现在看，很多人，嗯，我只能说Hims社区的很多人不喜欢我昨天发表的评论，说我觉得那很尴尬。

And they're like, "Well, what about when Karp says to burn the shorts? And what about when Elon says this and that?" 他们说：“那卡普说要烧空头的时候呢？埃隆说这说那的时候呢？”

I'm like, "Look, okay, I will give you the point that yes, Karp and Elon are also eclectic and eccentric, and they will say things publicly on television and stuff." 我当时想：“听着，好吧，我承认卡普和埃隆也都是不拘一格、古怪的人，他们会在电视上公开说些什么。”

Elon more through Twitter, and it can be kind of weird, right? Especially to the conventional shareholder. 埃隆更多是通过推特，这可能有点奇怪，对吧？特别是对传统股东来说。

However, my retort to that is as follows. Number one, Karp and Elon are weird people. 然而，我的反驳如下。第一，卡普和埃隆是怪人。

They are able to get away with being weird. There's also something about reading the room, right? 他们能够以怪异的方式蒙混过关。还有一点是察言观色，对吧？

Karp and Elon are weird. They people know they're weird. Their entire brand is being weird, and that kind of makes them who they are. 卡普和埃隆很奇怪。人们知道他们很奇怪。他们的整个品牌就是怪异，这在某种程度上成就了他们。

So the Andrew Dutam is not some weird guy. He's just some regular dude who operates. 所以安德鲁·杜塔姆不是什么怪人。他只是个普通的经营者。

It just it becomes weird when you do things that are actually weird and cringe when you're not perceived as weird and cringe. 当你做一些真正奇怪和令人尴尬的事情，而你又不被认为是奇怪和令人尴尬的时候，这就会变得奇怪。

And I know that logic may sound counterintuitive, but that is something that that that is just the reality of the world that we live in right here. 我知道这种逻辑可能听起来反直觉，但这只是我们所处世界的现实。

And so I think that's one point. Number two is that look, Karp saying, "We're going to burn the shorts," or "We're going to take the short sellers to get their cocaine on CNBC in an interview with Sarah Eisman." 所以我认为这是一点。第二点是，你看，卡普说：“我们要烧空头，”或者“我们要把卖空者带到CNBC上，在接受莎拉·艾斯曼采访时，让他们吸可卡因。”

It's the most Karp thing ever because he's already such a, this guy writes philosophical shareholder letters, and he's done it for the past 14 quarters. 这是最卡普的事情，因为他已经是一个这样的人了，这家伙写哲学性的股东信，而且他已经连续写了14个季度。

And he goes on these rambles and rants. His mind just goes somewhere, and you know that stuff ends up coming out of his mouth. 他会滔滔不绝地胡说八道。他的思绪会飘到某个地方，你知道那些话最终会从他嘴里说出来。

He does not have a Twitter account that is quoting me saying, "Oh, I think Palantir is getting squeezed with an eye emoji." 他没有一个推特账号引用我说：“哦，我认为Palantir正在被一个眼睛表情符号挤压。”

Because that [__] is just cringe. It's just cringe. It's cringe in a different way. 因为那东西太尴尬了。就是尴尬。以一种不同的方式尴尬。

And look, the Coke short sellers, I didn't think that comment was cringe because, you know, I thought it was pretty cool the way he was saying it, especially given the nature of the personality that Karp has. 而且，你看，那些可乐的卖空者，我不觉得那个评论很尴尬，因为，你知道，我觉得他说的方式很酷，特别是考虑到卡普的个性特点。

But other people thought it was cringe. That's fair. You're allowed to think that that's cringe. 但其他人觉得很尴尬。这很公平。你当然可以觉得那很尴尬。

I'm also allowed to think that what Dutam's doing is really weird, especially right when you're about to sell $11 million worth of stock. 我也被允许认为杜塔姆正在做的事情真的很奇怪，尤其是在你即将出售价值1100万美元股票的时候。

It's not a bear case for him, right? I already said it's not a bear case for him. It's just not a good look. 对他来说这不是看跌的情况，对吧？我已经说过这不是看跌的情况。只是不太好看。

It's just not a good look. And I know a lot of the Hims people aren't going to agree with me on this, and they're going to think I'm being a hypocrite or whatever. 这只是不太好看。我知道很多Hims的粉丝不会同意我的看法，他们会认为我虚伪什么的。

CT says, "Amid is weird. That's why we love." Yeah, dude. I can make certain jokes because I'm perceived as weird in certain way. CT说：“阿米特很奇怪。这就是我们喜欢的原因。”是的，伙计。我可以开某些玩笑，因为我在某种程度上被认为是奇怪的。

Like I can mispronounce certain words and get away with it. 比如我可以说错某些单词，然后蒙混过关。

And you know you guys, you guys will give me [] but you won't give me that much [] because you know that like, like I can call the European EU Commission president Lagarde because you guys know that. 而且你们，你们会骂我，但不会骂得太狠，因为你们知道，比如我可以把欧盟委员会主席拉加德叫错，因为你们知道。

I don't know how to talk, right? And so like I can get away with that. 我不知道怎么说话，对吧？所以我可以蒙混过关。

But if you're some professional like CNBC host or something, you can't get away with that [__] because people were like, "What? Why can't you say her name correctly?" 但如果你是像CNBC主持人那样的专业人士，你就不能那样胡说八道，因为人们会说：“什么？你为什么不能正确地说出她的名字？”

It's the thing is it's just weird to do it on Twitter of all places and then sell the day after. Not a bear case for him. 问题是，在所有地方中选择在推特上做这件事，然后第二天就卖掉，这很奇怪。对他来说这不是看跌的情况。

It's I don't know. It's just not the best look. And I'm not the only one. 我不知道。这只是不太好看。我不是唯一一个这么想的。

I know a lot of Hims people may disagree with me, and they think I'm being too nitpicky, but if you just look at objectively a lot of other people talking about this on Twitter, it really looks weird. 我知道很多Hims的粉丝可能不同意我的看法，他们认为我过于吹毛求疵，但如果你客观地看看推特上其他很多人对此的讨论，这确实看起来很奇怪。

It's not something that people love. But regardless, those are my thoughts. 这不是人们喜欢的事情。但无论如何，这就是我的想法。

It might be a weak argument. Look, it might be if you're super into Hims, you probably don't care about that argument either. 这可能是一个站不住脚的论点。你看，如果你非常喜欢Hims，你可能也不在乎那个论点。

I'm just saying in the back of your head, even if you're a Hims shareholder, like the thing when Karp made those coke seller short seller comments and you know they're going to do cocaine. 我只是说，在你脑海深处，即使你是Hims的股东，就像卡普发表那些可乐卖家卖空者评论时，你知道他们会吸可卡因。

Almost 95% of the Palantir investor base was like, "Yeah, bro." It riled you up. It gave you energy. 几乎95%的Palantir投资者都说：“是的，兄弟。”它让你兴奋。它给了你能量。

I don't know of 90, I mean Nate, Nate's a good friend of mine. Nate's been preaching to Hims. 我不知道90，我的意思是内特，内特是我的好朋友。内特一直在向Hims布道。

Nate is one of the reasons I bought Hims in the first place. Nate was like, "Dude, this [__] is weird. Why is he quoting some random guy on Twitter saying that Hims is going to squeeze and then he's selling stock the day after?" 内特是我最初购买Hims的原因之一。内特当时说：“伙计，这太奇怪了。他为什么引用推特上某个随机的人说Hims要被逼空，然后第二天他就卖股票？”

Like, even Nate was like, "I don't I don't understand why this is happening." 甚至内特都说：“我我不知道为什么会发生这种事。”

But regardless, it doesn't really matter that much. Hims will be fine long term if they keep executing. 但无论如何，这并不那么重要。如果Hims继续执行，长期来看会没事的。

AMD price target right there, 250 to 300. That's what you got on AMD. AMD的目标价就在那里，250到300美元。这就是AMD的情况。

So, you do have an upgrade right there by Bank of America Securities. 所以，美国银行证券确实给出了一个升级评级。

Hims did get a, well, I mean Hims didn't get an upgrade. They got a sell rating from Bank of America, a reiteration of that sell rating. Hims确实得到了，嗯，我的意思是Hims没有得到升级。他们得到了美国银行的卖出评级，并重申了该卖出评级。

So I don't know why Bank of America just hates Hims, but they really do hate Hims. 所以我不知道为什么美国银行就是讨厌Hims，但他们确实很讨厌Hims。

So they like AMD, they like Nvidia, they don't really love Hims. 所以他们喜欢AMD，他们喜欢英伟达，他们并不真正喜欢Hims。

美光科技与半导体生态系统

Micron also doing okay. Oh yeah, this was another headline this morning. 美光也表现不错。哦，对了，这是今天早上的另一个头条新闻。

Micron New York approves power line for Micron's 100 billion semiconductor power plant. 美光纽约州批准了美光1000亿美元半导体工厂的电力线路。

You're getting more of the local governments and jurisdictions starting to be a bit more friendly, I guess you could say, to the companies that are building out these data centers and semiconductor ecosystems. 你可以说，越来越多的地方政府和司法管辖区开始对那些正在建设数据中心和半导体生态系统的公司更加友好。

Micron right there, 200 in the pre-markets, which is also pretty nice to see as well. 美光就在那里，盘前200美元，这也相当不错。

预测市场与甲骨文的AI基础设施增长

Now, here's a stat that I think is also really important. We got about 7 minutes into the market opens. Take a look at this. 现在，这里有一个我认为也非常重要的数据。市场开盘大约7分钟了。看看这个。

Polymarket (预测市场平台: 允许用户对未来事件的结果进行投注的平台) data, this is what they put out yesterday, shows how close they are to truth in real time across thousands of markets. Polymarket (预测市场平台: 允许用户对未来事件的结果进行投注的平台) 的数据显示，他们昨天发布的数据显示，在数千个市场中，他们实时接近真相的程度。

Accuracy sits at 91% even a month before a resolution comes out and a 95% just four hours out. 即使在一个决议公布前一个月，准确率也达到91%，而仅仅提前四小时，准确率就达到95%。

So Polymarket is pricing in a 97% chance, or it might be Kalshi. It's one of those that Michael Saylor will be on the Joe Rogan podcast. 所以Polymarket预测有97%的可能性，或者可能是Kalshi。其中之一是迈克尔·塞勒将参加乔·罗根的播客。

Which by the way, Palmer Lucky was on it yesterday. And I mean, look, if someone told me Michael Saylor was going to be on Joe Rogan, I wouldn't believe them. 顺便说一句，帕尔默·拉基昨天也参加了。我的意思是，你看，如果有人告诉我迈克尔·塞勒会参加乔·罗根的节目，我不会相信他们。

I'd be like, "Uh, it's probably not happening. Like, you know, where's your source for that?" 我可能会说：“嗯，这可能不会发生。你知道，你的消息来源在哪里？”

But if Kalshi is saying there's a 97% chance that it happens, I start to believe it because the accuracy of the wisdom of the crowd's thesis is becoming much more real than not. 但如果Kalshi说有97%的几率会发生，我就开始相信了，因为“群体智慧”理论的准确性变得越来越真实。

So, it's quite incredible to see that playing out. And, you know, hopefully that ends up actually happening. 所以，看到这种情况发生是相当不可思议的。而且，你知道，希望这最终真的会发生。

But, these prediction markets are becoming more and more important. And it looks like they can't be denied. 但是，这些预测市场正变得越来越重要。而且看起来它们无法被否认。

Oracle executives says AI infrastructure has seen a 117% growth rate year-over-year in Q1 of 2026, which is next quarter. 甲骨文高管表示，其AI基础设施在2026年第一季度（即下个季度）实现了117%的同比增长率。

Oracle executives yesterday also said cloud infrastructure revenue is expected to be 166 billion by fiscal year 2030. 甲骨文高管昨天还表示，预计到2030财年，云基础设施收入将达到1660亿美元。

So they are giving more guidance across the board on what's happening with Oracle and what's happening with their RPO (Remaining Performance Obligations: 剩余履约义务，指客户已承诺但尚未履行的合同收入). 所以他们正在全面提供更多关于甲骨文以及其剩余履约义务 (Remaining Performance Obligations: 剩余履约义务，指客户已承诺但尚未履行的合同收入) 的情况。

By the way, that RPO growth that was up 350% yesterday at their Oracle conference, they said that RPO growth is now up 500% going into 2030, which is pretty crazy. 顺便说一句，昨天在甲骨文大会上，RPO增长了350%，他们说RPO增长到2030年将达到500%，这相当疯狂。

So, if you believe that they're actually going to be able to get those contracts, then you are getting some momentum into what could happen with Oracle. 所以，如果你相信他们真的能拿到这些合同，那么你就能看到甲骨文未来可能发生的一些势头。

苹果进军F1赛事转播权

Apple won F1 (Formula 1: 一级方程式赛车) US broadcast rights with a landmark 5-year deal. So, now on Apple TV, you will be able to watch Formula 1. 苹果公司以一项里程碑式的五年协议，赢得了F1 (Formula 1: 一级方程式赛车) 在美国的转播权。所以，现在你可以在Apple TV上观看一级方程式赛车了。

I'm going to be honest, I've never seen Formula 1 before. I haven't even seen the movie with Brad Pitt. 老实说，我以前从未看过一级方程式赛车。我甚至没看过布拉德·皮特演的电影。

I've really never been into racing or seeing cars race each other. So I've never watched it, but I guess Formula 1 is a massive sport for a lot of people. 我真的从来不喜欢赛车或看汽车比赛。所以我从未看过，但我想一级方程式赛车对很多人来说是一项非常重要的运动。

And yeah, Apple looks like they got, I think, I mean Steve has said this so many times. 是的，苹果看起来他们得到了，我想，史蒂夫已经说过很多次了。

Apple should be buying so many sports rights and integrating them into their ecosystem. 苹果应该购买更多的体育赛事版权，并将它们整合到自己的生态系统中。

I mean, imagine if Apple bought Madison Square Garden, as Steve has mentioned before, and they had access to all the New York games, all the live shows and concerts, and they could integrate it into maybe the Vision Pro to make it something that's more compelling. 我的意思是，想象一下如果苹果收购了麦迪逊广场花园，就像史蒂夫之前提到的那样，他们就能获得所有纽约的比赛、所有现场表演和音乐会，并且可以将其整合到Vision Pro中，使其更具吸引力。

Apple has a lot of cash outside of buying back their stock. I mean, getting media rights to be able to make their products more compelling and just more sticky. 除了回购股票，苹果还有大量现金。我的意思是，获得媒体版权能够让他们的产品更具吸引力，也更具粘性。

I feel like it's not crazy, but that is one thing Apple's doing with F1. 我觉得这并不疯狂，但这是苹果在F1方面正在做的一件事。

OpenAI Sora与历史人物形象争议

Okay, here's an update from ChatGPT last night, OpenAI, that I thought was also pretty interesting. 好的，这是昨晚来自ChatGPT，OpenAI的一个更新，我觉得也很有趣。

So, for those that are on Sora, you can basically take any historical character and get them to do whatever you want them to do. 所以，对于那些使用Sora的人来说，你基本上可以选取任何历史人物，让他们做任何你想让他们做的事情。

So, people were taking Martin Luther King Jr.'s "I have a dream" speech, and well, they were applying AI to it. 所以，人们拿马丁·路德·金博士的“我有一个梦想”演讲，然后，他们将其应用于人工智能。

And Dr. MLK Jr. was saying some things that you probably, I've seen some of the videos, and I cannot deny how hilarious some of them are. 马丁·路德·金博士说了一些你可能，我见过一些视频，我不能否认其中一些有多么滑稽。

But nonetheless, it pissed off the estate. And OpenAI comes out yesterday and says, "Hey, some users generated disrespectful depictions of Dr. King's image." 但无论如何，这激怒了遗产管理方。OpenAI昨天出来说：“嘿，一些用户生成了对金博士形象不尊重的描绘。”

So at King's Inc.'s request, OpenAI has paused generations depicting Dr. King as it strengthens guard rails for historical figures. 因此，应金氏公司（King's Inc.）的要求，OpenAI已暂停生成描绘金博士的图像，因为它正在加强对历史人物的保护措施。

Okay. Now, here's my take on this. First of all, obviously, if the estate of MLK Jr. doesn't want that type of content being put, I think OpenAI should respect that. 好的。现在，这是我的看法。首先，显然，如果马丁·路德·金博士的遗产管理方不希望出现那种内容，我认为OpenAI应该尊重这一点。

I think that that makes sense. And given how crazy AI can become, that can end up resulting in some horrible content. 我认为这很合理。而且考虑到人工智能可能变得多么疯狂，这最终可能导致一些可怕的内容。

But here's my take, and here's why I'm thinking Sam Altman is just ruthless. 但这是我的看法，这也是为什么我认为萨姆·奥特曼只是个冷酷无情的人。

How did he not know? He's either ruthless or he's an idiot. Or maybe he just doesn't care. 他怎么会不知道呢？他要么冷酷无情，要么是个傻瓜。或者他根本不在乎。

How did you not know that if you license historical figures to teenagers that are joining Sora that don't have their brains developed, that will type in these prompts that make these historical figures say and do ridiculous things, that this wouldn't happen? 你难道不知道，如果你把历史人物授权给那些加入Sora的、大脑尚未发育成熟的青少年，他们会输入这些提示，让这些历史人物说出和做出荒谬的事情，这种情况就不会发生吗？

Like, how did you not know this obviously would happen? It's almost just it really makes me think these guys don't understand or care that much about safety. 你难道不知道这显然会发生吗？这几乎让我觉得这些人不太理解或不太关心安全问题。

Because to not think that, "Yeah, if we license one of the most prominent civil rights historical figures of all time to the public, the public would manipulate the likeliness of that historical figure in a weird AI way." 因为不认为“是的，如果我们把历史上最杰出的民权历史人物之一授权给公众，公众就会以一种奇怪的人工智能方式操纵这位历史人物的形象。”

Oh yeah, let's just let that happen. And it's one thing to say, "Move fast and break things." It's another thing to be like, "That's just stupid." 哦，是的，就让它发生吧。说“快速行动，打破常规”是一回事。但说“那真是愚蠢”又是另一回事。

And then here's the follow-up question. What if Kim Kardashian comes out and says, "I don't like how people are using my likeliness." 然后是后续问题。如果金·卡戴珊出来说：“我不喜欢人们使用我的形象。”

What if Brad Pitt comes out and says, "Dude, I don't like this AI [__]. Like, I have a reputation. I'm an actor. I, you know, I have a public perception, and now the Sora app is feeding all these thousands of people different versions of me talking in different ways." 如果布拉德·皮特出来说：“伙计，我不喜欢这种人工智能的东西。我有声誉。我是一名演员。我，你知道，我有公众形象，现在Sora应用程序正在向成千上万的人提供不同版本的我，以不同的方式说话。”

Like, at what point does this become a censorship debate versus a free speech debate? 那么，在什么程度上，这会变成一场审查制度与言论自由的辩论？

At what point does the government get involved and say, "Hey, there's copyright laws on people's own individual personalities that shouldn't be allowed to be depicted in this way." 政府会在什么时候介入并说：“嘿，个人肖像权有版权法保护，不应该允许以这种方式描绘。”

It's very weird, and I think OpenAI trying to be LZ fair about it, it's not going to work. 这非常奇怪，我认为OpenAI试图在这方面做到完全公平，但这行不通。

But the fact that they even tried in the first place, not expecting the push back they would get, and now they got the push back is a weird issue. 但他们一开始就尝试了，没有预料到会遭到反对，现在却遭到了反对，这是一个奇怪的问题。

And I can just imagine the lawsuits across the board. And also, forget just the legal aspect of it. 我简直可以想象全面的诉讼。而且，别忘了法律层面。

If you're Sam Altman, do you really want to piss off the estate of Dr. MLK Jr.? 如果你是萨姆·奥特曼，你真的想惹恼马丁·路德·金博士的遗产管理方吗？

Do you want to piss off all these pop culture icons and get them opposed to never like touching your AI product because you're allowing people to do this? 你是否想惹恼所有这些流行文化偶像，让他们反对永远不接触你的人工智能产品，因为你允许人们这样做？

Doesn't seem like that makes much sense, but this is going to be another problem that the overall ecosystem of AI is going to have to deal with long term. 这似乎不太合理，但这将是人工智能整体生态系统长期必须处理的另一个问题。

And I guess we're going to see how this ends up playing out. 我想我们拭目以待，看看这最终会如何发展。

市场开盘表现与黄金走势

All right, folks. Here we go. We got about 20 seconds until the market opens. Thank everybody for being here. 好了，各位。我们开始吧。距离市场开盘还有大约20秒。感谢大家的到来。

It is Friday at 2 a.m. We were deep, deep red. An hour ago, Trump said, "We're not going to put tariffs on China, and we'll try to get a deal by next week." 今天是周五凌晨2点。我们当时深陷红色。一小时前，特朗普说：“我们不会对中国征收关税，下周我们会努力达成协议。”

That reversed pretty much everything. Let's see as the market opens up what happens and if we end up getting to buy the dip or if the market continues to sell off. 这几乎扭转了一切。让我们看看市场开盘后会发生什么，我们是会逢低买入，还是市场会继续抛售。

It is 9:30 a.m. Friday, October 17th. Thank you everybody for being here. The stock market is now open. 现在是10月17日星期五上午9:30。感谢大家的到来。股市现在开盘了。

All right. Wake your ass up. Let's get into it. S&P down on the day, not down that much, but we are red. 好了。都给我醒醒。我们开始吧。标普今天下跌，跌幅不大，但我们是红色的。

Grab goes down 1.3%. SoFi down 1%. AMD down 1%. Nvidia down 1%. Tesla down 1%. Palantir down 1%. Hoody down 2.3%. Reddit's down 2.4%. Grab下跌1.3%。SoFi下跌1%。AMD下跌1%。英伟达下跌1%。特斯拉下跌1%。Palantir下跌1%。Hoody下跌2.3%。Reddit下跌2.4%。

Amazon's actually flat. It's down the least out of a lot of these names, but still is red. 亚马逊实际上持平。在这些股票中跌幅最小，但仍然是红色的。

Meta is down half a percent. Salesforce is flat. PayPal's down the third. Apple's actually green. Meta下跌0.5%。Salesforce持平。PayPal下跌三分之一。苹果实际上是上涨的。

Bitcoin 105 at 3 and 4700. Bit mine's probably at 51. Bit mine is at, never mind, 4950. 比特币在105，3和4700。Bit mine可能在51。Bit mine在，算了，4950。

It did get to 47, I think, in the pre-markets. So, Bit Mine taking a hit. 我想它在盘前确实达到了47。所以，Bit Mine受到了打击。

CrowdStrike's down one. Coinbase down three. Rocket Lab's down 1.3. MicroStrategy down one, but up from the pre-markets. CrowdStrike下跌1%。Coinbase下跌3%。Rocket Lab下跌1.3%。MicroStrategy下跌1%，但比盘前上涨。

S&P still down 0.2. So, it's not like we're out of the woods by any sense of the imagination, although this was way worse at 2 a.m. 标普仍下跌0.2%。所以，我们并没有完全脱离困境，尽管凌晨2点的情况要糟糕得多。

So it's a little recovery, but not as nice of a recovery. Nvidia right here down 1%. Tesla down half. Baba's down two. 所以这是一点点恢复，但不是那么好的恢复。英伟达在这里下跌1%。特斯拉下跌0.5%。阿里巴巴下跌2%。

VIX is down but still right below 25. It closed above 25 yesterday, but 2460 is where the VIX is at right now. VIX下跌，但仍略低于25。昨天收盘高于25，但现在VIX在2460。

Walmart right there down about half a percent. Lyft is also down 1.2%. Coreweave down 3.5. 沃尔玛下跌约0.5%。Lyft也下跌1.2%。Coreweave下跌3.5%。

Coinbase down two. CrowdStrike down one. The VIX is down but still pretty up on the day. Coinbase下跌2%。CrowdStrike下跌1%。VIX下跌，但今天仍相当高。

And then new bank right here that is also down about half a percent on the day. 然后这里的新银行今天也下跌了大约0.5%。

Where's Amkor? This one has held up at 31. Not horrible. It's held up okay, but you're still getting some pain. 安靠在哪里？这支股票保持在31。不算太糟。它表现还行，但你仍然会感到一些痛苦。

S&P 500 right there trying to recover. 6590. Might be going green. 标普500指数正在那里试图恢复。6590。可能要转绿了。

There's that candle right there. Maybe we get it. But everything else still pretty red. 那根K线就在那里。也许我们能看到它。但其他一切仍然相当红。

Oracle, are we getting hit? Oracle, we got hit. Oracle 298. That's down. 甲骨文，我们受到打击了吗？甲骨文，我们受到了打击。甲骨文298。下跌了。

Oracle is indeed down 297, up from or down from 302 in the pre-markets. Tesla again still going down. Salesforce is down. 甲骨文确实下跌到297，比盘前的302下跌。特斯拉再次下跌。Salesforce下跌。

AS this was at 102 yesterday. AS is 8449. Let's look at the rare earth stocks. AS昨天在102。AS是8449。我们来看看稀土股票。

Rare earths are down all of them across the board continuing their pain from yesterday. 稀土股票全面下跌，延续了昨天的跌势。

How about the Bitcoin miners? They are all red, although Iris pretty decent recovery. 比特币矿工股怎么样？它们全线飘红，尽管Iris反弹得相当不错。

It was at 54 in the pre-markets. It's at 60 now. So that's not too bad. 盘前是54。现在是60。所以还不错。

At least you got some juice right there. That's still down 1%. Bit Farms 502. This thing was at 650 yesterday. 至少你还有一些上涨空间。那仍然下跌1%。Bit Farms 502。这东西昨天是650。

Marathon's down. Riot's down. Galaxy is down. CleanSpark's down. Cipher is also down. Marathon下跌。Riot下跌。Galaxy下跌。CleanSpark下跌。Cipher也下跌。

Rocket Lab went green. Rocket Lab. Okay, Rocket Lab's one of the growth names that's going green. Rocket Lab转绿了。Rocket Lab。好的，Rocket Lab是少数几只转绿的成长股之一。

Let's see if that's a trend across the board. Maybe we can get some more. 我们看看这是否是普遍趋势。也许我们能看到更多。

SoFi just went green for a second. SoFi joined the party for a little bit. SoFi刚刚转绿了一秒钟。SoFi也短暂加入了上涨行列。

Apple still holding on to its green. Palo Alto green, but pretty much everything else outside of Rocket Lab is red. 苹果仍然保持绿色。Palo Alto绿色，但除了Rocket Lab之外，几乎所有其他股票都是红色的。

Verizon and your value names are holding up. How about UNH? Verizon和你的价值股表现不错。UNH怎么样？

UNH is UNH. They get a price target upgrade to 375 this morning, but they are also down on the day. UNH就是UNH。他们今天早上获得了目标价上调至375美元，但当天也下跌了。

What about Quantum QBTS? Wow, down another 5%. 量子计算公司QBTS怎么样？哇，又跌了5%。

OQ, it was down 10% yesterday, down another 1%. And then Rigetti down 7%. OQ昨天跌了10%，今天又跌了1%。然后Rigetti跌了7%。

All right, so all the quantum names still bleeding, and all of those are also down. 好的，所以所有量子计算股票仍在流血，而且也都下跌了。

SMCI, how about that one? Delta is down a little bit. SMCI is down about 2%. SMCI呢？达美航空小幅下跌。SMCI下跌约2%。

Where is United Airlines? They had a great earnings a couple of days ago. That one's actually green. 美联航在哪里？他们几天前发布了非常好的财报。那只股票实际上是上涨的。

IBKR also had a pretty good earnings. IBKR right there 65.87. That is down about 3.87% on the day. 盈透证券也发布了相当不错的财报。盈透证券就在那里，65.87。今天下跌了大约3.87%。

There you go. Google right there 1.2. And then Grabby Grab 561. 看，谷歌在那里1.2。然后Grabby Grab 561。

It looks like she wants to break 560 as she continues to get hit. 看起来它想跌破560，因为它继续受到打击。

TLT is actually down, which means the 10-year is up a little bit. And then AppLoving, that one's also down on the day. TLT实际上是下跌的，这意味着10年期国债收益率略有上升。然后AppLoving，今天也下跌了。

I wonder how this turns out in the next hour. Because S&P is about to go green, but everything's still red. 我不知道接下来一小时会如何发展。因为标普即将转绿，但其他一切仍然是红色的。

It's not as bad as it was before. Grab just broke 560. That one's getting hit. 情况没有之前那么糟糕。Grab刚刚跌破560。那只股票受到了打击。

Robinhood was almost at 124 in the pre-market. So, I mean, it's gapping back up to 130, but can that actually sustain throughout the end of the day? Robinhood在盘前几乎达到124。所以，我的意思是，它正在跳空反弹到130，但这能否持续到收盘呢？

You have a ton of options that are expiring in a few hours as well. Nvidia breaking 181. 你还有大量期权将在几小时内到期。英伟达跌破181。

I mean, it looks like we're trying to go green, but a lot of these names are still getting slammed. 我的意思是，看起来我们正在努力转绿，但很多这些股票仍然受到重创。

Mr. Beast has filed a trademark application for Mr. Beast Financial, planning to register a company to provide cryptocurrency trading services and more. Mr. Beast已提交Mr. Beast Financial的商标申请，计划注册一家公司提供加密货币交易服务等。

Okay, we hit the top. That's it. That's the headline. And I know we've been saying every headline's the top, but this one's legit. 好的，我们触顶了。就是这样。这就是头条新闻。我知道我们一直在说每个头条都是顶部，但这个是真的。

Mr. Beast is going to give out Bitcoin. Dude, what freaking scam crypto company is he partnering with to, how much did they pay him to do this [__]? Mr. Beast要送比特币。伙计，他到底和哪个骗子加密货币公司合作，他们付了他多少钱来做这事？

Mr. Beast has been losing some aura. I'm not going to lie. Over the past couple years, he's been taking some deals that are just like, "What are you doing? Why are you doing this [__]?" 我不会说谎，过去几年Mr. Beast失去了一些光环。他接了一些交易，让人觉得：“你在干什么？你为什么要搞这些？”

I don't know, Mr. Beast. Really? All right, I guess we'll see what happens with that. 我不知道，Mr. Beast。真的吗？好吧，我想我们会看看那会发生什么。

I mean, I'm just joking about it being the top, but definitely is weird when influencers like that get involved in the crypto space. 我的意思是，我只是开玩笑说那是顶部，但像那样的网红涉足加密货币领域确实很奇怪。

Google right there, that's down half a percent, losing 250 as well. 谷歌就在那里，下跌了0.5%，也损失了250。

美国运通财报强劲与Mercado Libre的挑战

American Express said government shutdown hasn't hit customers yet. Did we have American Express earnings? That's a big one. 美国运通表示政府停摆尚未影响客户。我们有美国运通的财报吗？那是个大新闻。

Yeah, American Express beat on the top and the bottom. Look at that. 4% beat on EPS, 2% beat on revenue. 是的，美国运通的营收和利润都超出了预期。看，每股收益超出4%，营收超出2%。

Revenue is up 11% year-over-year. EPS is up 19% year-over-year. 营收同比增长11%。每股收益同比增长19%。

So, you got American Express putting up good numbers. Again, another bank that's out there, another financial institution that's not really showing signs of weakness. 所以，美国运通交出了不错的业绩。再次，这是另一家银行，另一家金融机构，并没有真正显示出疲软的迹象。

But the regionals are the issue that we had yesterday. It's also a Friday. That's the other thing we got to remember. 但区域银行是我们昨天遇到的问题。今天也是周五。这是我们必须记住的另一件事。

Fridays, sometimes get low volume. You sometimes get people just calling it early for the weekend. You have tons of options expiring. 周五有时交易量会很低。有时人们会提前收工过周末。你有大量的期权到期。

So, that could also be happening. Mercado Libre again it's down based on the fears of, there's a couple reasons, but the main one that we talked about last week was Amazon entering Brazil more heavily and Latin America. 所以，这也可能正在发生。Mercado Libre再次下跌，原因有几个，但我们上周谈到的主要原因是亚马逊更深入地进入巴西和拉丁美洲。

I just don't know enough about Mercado Libre to buy these guys. 我对Mercado Libre了解不够，无法购买这些股票。

I mean, I think it's worth doing a deep dive, and probably will do a deep dive eventually on them. 我的意思是，我认为值得深入研究，最终可能也会对它们进行深入研究。

But they don't have an AWS. They're the Amazon of Latin America without an AWS. 但他们没有AWS。他们是拉丁美洲的亚马逊，却没有AWS。

Now they have a payments infrastructure, which makes up the majority of their margin because that's the fintech (Financial Technology: 金融科技) part of the business. 现在他们拥有支付基础设施，这构成了他们大部分利润，因为那是业务的金融科技 (Financial Technology: 金融科技) 部分。

But it's hard for me to buy the Amazon of Latin America, not fully understanding the dynamics of their path to profitability or their path to really expand profitability. 但对我来说，很难购买拉丁美洲的亚马逊，因为我没有完全理解他们实现盈利或真正扩大盈利能力的动态。

But it's a high quality company, very, very high quality company from the people that I know that own this stock. 但据我所知，拥有这只股票的人都认为它是一家高质量公司，非常非常高质量。

And I think in five years, if you buy the dip on this, you're going to be okay. 而且我认为在五年内，如果你逢低买入这只股票，你会没事的。

It's just a question of really understanding what you're buying. 这只是一个真正了解你正在购买什么的问题。

量子计算股票持续下跌

Next decade, that's up a little bit. 9% getting some love right there. That's getting some green. So, that's doing okay. 下一个十年，那稍微上涨了一点。9%在那里得到了一些关注。那正在转绿。所以，那表现还不错。

How about Archer and Joby? What about those guys? Archer 1146, that's down 3.5. Joby, that's also down 1.18. Archer和Joby怎么样？那些公司呢？Archer 1146，下跌3.5%。Joby也下跌1.18%。

Yeah, Matt talked about Next yesterday. That was also true. 是的，马特昨天谈到了Next。那也是真的。

Did you see Lemonade integrating Tesla live driving data into the product? I did not, but that should be bullish for Lemonade. 你看到Lemonade将特斯拉实时驾驶数据整合到产品中了吗？我没有，但这应该对Lemonade是利好消息。

Lemonade right there, they're up about 1.4%. Lemonade's also been stuck. Lemonade就在那里，上涨了大约1.4%。Lemonade也一直停滞不前。

It was at 60 a couple weeks ago, and then it was down. 几周前它还在60，然后就跌了。

Yes, Jason said 551 was support for Grab. If we lose 551, that could get ugly, but maybe that's where we bounce as well. 是的，杰森说551是Grab的支撑位。如果跌破551，情况可能会变得糟糕，但也许那也是我们反弹的地方。

Palantir right there. 17644. That's down about 1% on the day. Palantir就在那里。17644。今天下跌了大约1%。

BMR we back above 50? Nope. 4950. BMR我们回到50以上了吗？没有。4950。

By the way, Bloomberg, we don't have US initial jobless claims because the government's closed, but Bloomberg reporting based on looking at state data that jobless claims fell last week. 顺便说一句，彭博社报道称，根据州数据，上周初请失业金人数下降，因为政府关闭，我们没有美国的官方数据。

So, you're getting some level of data based on the fact that the government is shut down from these third-party sources, independent sources to try to figure it out. 所以，你正在从这些第三方来源、独立来源获取一些数据，试图弄清楚政府关闭的事实。

Dude, Kalshi says we're not going to reopen till November 16th. So, I don't know. 伙计，Kalshi说我们要到11月16日才重新开放。所以我不知道。

And Trump's not talking about the shutdown anymore. He's talking about China. 而且特朗普不再谈论政府停摆了。他在谈论中国。

劳动力市场数据与政府停摆僵局

So, I mean, we're going to really see if this thing can get fixed in the next year or in the next coming weeks. 所以，我的意思是，我们将真正看看这件事能否在明年或未来几周内得到解决。

Barclays raised their price target on Tesla to 350. So, you do have an upgrade there. 巴克莱将特斯拉的目标价上调至350美元。所以，你那里确实有一次升级。

And then PayPal, ELF, and Salesforce go green. PayPal, ELF, and Salesforce go green. 然后PayPal、ELF和Salesforce都转绿了。PayPal、ELF和Salesforce都转绿了。

Would you buy Hood at these levels? For me, no, because I have a lot of it. For someone DCAing (Dollar-Cost Averaging: 平均成本法，一种投资策略，定期定额投资以降低市场波动风险). 你会在这个水平买入Hood吗？对我来说，不会，因为我有很多。对于平均成本法 (Dollar-Cost Averaging: 平均成本法，一种投资策略，定期定额投资以降低市场波动风险) 的人来说。

I mean, look, I don't think a nibble. Nibble is way better here than at 150. 我的意思是，看，我不认为小额买入。在这里小额买入比在150美元时好得多。

Now, here's the thing about Hood, and this is more applicable to everything high beta. 现在，关于Hood有一点，这更适用于所有高贝塔股票。

The high beta names like a Nebius, for example, that are down outside of the growth story of Nebius around data centers, outside of the growth story of Robinhood on democratizing financial services, the only way these names get back to the 150s and 140s of the world is if we have a bull market. 像Nebius这样的高贝塔股票，除了围绕数据中心的增长故事，以及Robinhood在金融服务民主化方面的增长故事之外，它们下跌了，这些股票要想回到140美元和150美元的水平，唯一的办法就是我们有一个牛市。

Like, I'm sorry, but that's just the truth. If we don't have S&P 7000, I think it's going to be hard for Nebulas to get back to 140. 抱歉，但这就是事实。如果我们没有标普7000点，我认为Nebulas很难回到140美元。

I think it's going to be hard for Hood to get back to 150. 我认为Hood很难回到150美元。

So, if you're buying Hood here because your upside is 150 by the end of the year, or you think it can get back there like it was a week ago, then you really got to believe we end out the year in a bull market. 所以，如果你在这里购买Hood，因为你认为到年底它能上涨到150美元，或者你认为它能像一周前那样回到那个水平，那么你真的必须相信我们会在牛市中结束这一年。

Now, if you're buying it for the next decade, it's whatever, right? 现在，如果你是为了未来十年而购买它，那无所谓，对吧？

Even if you bought it at 150 for the next decade, who cares, right? 即使你以150美元的价格购买它并持有十年，谁会在乎呢，对吧？

If you're literally buying it with a sort of 10-year time horizon, but if you're buying it strategically to kind of be like, "All right, I'm getting a better price than 150. I want to jump in and hopefully we get back to 150." 如果你真的是以10年为投资期限来购买它，但如果你是策略性地购买，想着“好吧，我得到了比150美元更好的价格。我想介入，希望我们能回到150美元。”

You've got to believe we end the year out S&P closer to 7,000, right? 你必须相信我们年底时标普指数会接近7000点，对吧？

Otherwise, how how does Bit Mine get back above 65 if S&P's, you know, and Ethereum is probably closer to 5,000 if S&P gets to 7,000? 否则，如果标普指数达到7000点，以太坊可能接近5000点，那么Bit Mine如何能回到65美元以上呢？

A lot of the stuff moves in tandem. And so, I think when you're buying the dip on a high beta, that's why I'm buying the dip more on Grab because it's not high beta. 很多东西都是同步变动的。所以，我认为当你逢低买入高贝塔股票时，这就是为什么我更多地逢低买入Grab，因为它不是高贝塔股票。

And if I have to hold it for the next five years, I don't really care. 如果我必须持有它五年，我真的不在乎。

And I know I'm getting a decent deal based on my understanding of the valuation. 而且我知道，根据我对估值的理解，我得到了一个不错的交易。

If you're buying Nvidia right here to get back to 195, and we don't get S&P 7,000, it's going to suck by end of year. 如果你现在买入英伟达，期望它回到195美元，而标普指数没有达到7000点，那么到年底你会很郁闷。

But over the next three years, I think Nvidia is probably getting closer to 300 if they can do $11 EPS by 2027. 但在未来三年，如果英伟达能在2027年实现每股收益11美元，我认为它可能会接近300美元。

So 180 is not that bad. But the question becomes, if you're buying something high beta, do you believe that the alpha to the market will return by end of year? 所以180美元还不算太糟。但问题是，如果你购买高贝塔股票，你是否相信到年底市场会恢复超额收益？

Iris right there 5838. That one loses 60. Oscar also losing 22. That's down about 5% as well. Iris在那里是5838。那只股票损失了60。奥斯卡也损失了22。那也下跌了大约5%。

High beta (高贝塔值: 指股票价格波动性高于市场整体水平) just means names that move at a very rapid speed towards conventional names. 高贝塔值 (High beta: 指股票价格波动性高于市场整体水平) 只是指那些相对于传统股票波动速度非常快的股票。

Like Verizon is not high beta. There's not that much excitement, energy swings, volatility, etc. 比如Verizon不是高贝塔股票。它没有那么多的兴奋、能量波动、波动性等。

But Palantir, Reddit, Robinhood, all these other Coreweave, you know, this stuff. 但Palantir、Reddit、Robinhood，所有这些Coreweave，你知道，这些东西。

Coreweave was at 142 yesterday. Why? Because they're rumored to be in some data center deal with Nvidia in Texas and a new AI startup. Coreweave昨天是142。为什么？因为有传言说他们与英伟达在德克萨斯州以及一家新的AI初创公司有数据中心交易。

And like boom, that headline will take it up. Do they get back to 140? Sure. 然后砰的一声，那个头条新闻就会把它推高。他们能回到140吗？当然。

But like they either need a really good headline or they need they need the market to reverse. They need the VIX to stop spiking. 但他们要么需要一个非常好的头条新闻，要么需要市场反转。他们需要VIX停止飙升。

So I think a lot of these things are not even predicated on the companies themselves. 所以我认为很多这些事情甚至不取决于公司本身。

All of them have really good fundamental stories, especially over the next five years. 它们都有非常好的基本面故事，尤其是在未来五年内。

It's over the next five months, do those stories get back to normal. Yeah, Ford is low beta. Exactly. 在接下来的五个月里，这些故事能否恢复正常。是的，福特是低贝塔股票。没错。

M2货币供应量与比特币价格

US M2 money supply (M2货币供应量: 衡量经济中货币总量的指标，包括现金、活期存款、储蓄存款、货币市场基金等) reached a new record high, 22.2 trillion. 美国M2货币供应量 (M2 money supply: 衡量经济中货币总量的指标，包括现金、活期存款、储蓄存款、货币市场基金等) 达到新高，22.2万亿美元。

Okay, so that means liquidity is in the system, which is why it's so surprising to see Bitcoin at these levels. 好的，这意味着系统中有流动性，这就是为什么看到比特币在这些水平如此令人惊讶。

I mean, guys, could you imagine? All right, let's do a poll right here. 我的意思是，伙计们，你们能想象吗？好吧，我们在这里做个投票。

Let's do our own freaking Polymarket right here. You guys have been more accurate than not in the chat. 我们在这里做我们自己的Polymarket。你们在聊天中一直都挺准确的。

All right, so here's the question. I think some of you guys already know what the question is going to be. 好的，所以问题来了。我想你们中的一些人已经知道问题会是什么了。

Do you think Bitcoin goes below 100K before end of year? Do we see it lose six figures? 你认为比特币在年底前会跌破10万美元吗？我们会看到它跌破六位数吗？

That is the question. It's only 5,000 away from doing it. And to be honest, it might be a good flush out if that does happen, just like in general. 这就是问题。它离实现这个目标只差5000美元。说实话，如果真的发生，那可能是一次很好的清理，就像通常情况一样。

But I think that hurts Hoody, that hurts Coinbase, that hurts everything that's tied to it. 但我认为那会伤害Hoody，伤害Coinbase，伤害所有与它相关的东西。

Hoody right there down 2%. 50/50, 52% yes. 48% no. Hoody在那里下跌2%。五五开，52%说是。48%说不是。

It could even happen this weekend. Yeah, it could happen this weekend. 甚至可能这个周末就发生。是的，这个周末可能就会发生。

动量股OpenDoor的衰退

Where's OpenDoor? Is OpenDoor still holding seven? OpenDoor is holding seven by a thread. OpenDoor在哪里？OpenDoor还在七美元吗？OpenDoor勉强维持在七美元。

Do people care about OpenDoor anymore? Are we done with OpenDoor? Was this just like a two-month little fling, or are people, is anyone here buying the dip on OpenDoor? 人们还在乎OpenDoor吗？我们对OpenDoor已经不感兴趣了吗？这只是两个月的小插曲，还是有人，这里有人在逢低买入OpenDoor吗？

Does anyone believe they're going to turn things around and they're going to get a margin and the real estate market's coming back? 有人相信他们会扭转局面，获得利润，房地产市场会回来吗？

I mean, I think the chatter on Twitter has died down substantially, substantially. 我的意思是，我认为推特上的讨论已经大幅减少，大幅减少。

And you know, that's the thing about some of these momentum stocks. The momentum fades, the audience fades, the attention fades, no one really cares that much anymore. 你知道，这就是一些动量股的特点。动量减弱，受众减少，关注度降低，没有人再那么关心了。

There's nothing fundamental there. It is really sad when it happens. 那里没有什么基本面。发生这种事真的很悲哀。

I'm not saying that's going to happen OpenDoor. I'm just saying what I'm seeing is not that many people care about it anymore. 我不是说OpenDoor会发生这种事。我只是说我看到的是，不再有那么多人关心它了。

A couple of you saying you're still holding, but not caring that much. 你们中一些人说还在持有，但不太关心。

So, that one's still down on the day. What about Yeah. What about Better? What about Hut? What about the other Eric Jackson names? 所以，那只股票今天仍然下跌。Better呢？Hut呢？其他埃里克·杰克逊的股票呢？

Better is up 1.5. Hut is down two. And then SA, that was the biotech he was talking about. That one's down four. Better上涨1.5%。Hut下跌2%。然后SA，那是他谈论的生物科技股。那只下跌4%。

A lot of these names relatively flat. SoFi still 2670. 很多这些股票相对持平。SoFi仍然在2670。

And then the S&P two cents away from going red again. It's pretty wild. 然后标普指数距离再次转红只差两美分。这相当疯狂。

Pretty, pretty freaking wild. Meme ETF is down 3% on the day as well. 相当，相当疯狂。迷因ETF今天也下跌了3%。

以太坊超越比特币的潜力

We do have some new clips of our boy Tom Lee. He was with Kathy Wood yesterday talking more about ETH, and this is his explanation on why he thinks ETH is going to flip Bitcoin. 我们确实有一些关于汤姆·李的新片段。他昨天和凯西·伍德一起讨论了以太坊，这是他解释为什么他认为以太坊将超越比特币的原因。

Speaker: 71. In our chairman's message last month, we addressed how gold versus Wall Street grew post 1971. 发言人: 71年。在我们上个月的主席致辞中，我们讨论了1971年后黄金与华尔街的对比增长。

So 1971 was when Nixon formally withdrew the US from the gold standard. 所以1971年是尼克松正式让美国脱离金本位的时候。

The immediate beneficiary was there was demand and a market to own gold. And so people would say that was your first implication. 直接受益者是黄金有了需求和持有市场。所以人们会说那是你的第一个暗示。

But when what we wrote about and talked about in that message was that in 1971, the dollar became fully synthetic because it was no longer backed by anything. 但我们在那篇信息中写到和谈论的是，1971年美元变得完全是合成的，因为它不再有任何东西支持。

And so there was risk that the world would go off the dollar standard. So in stepped Wall Street to create products to propagate the future of Wall Street, including, and we listed I think 14 products that emerged over the next decade from money market funds to credit to mortgage back securities to futures etc. 因此存在世界脱离美元本位的风险。于是华尔街介入，创造产品来推广华尔街的未来，包括，我们列出了我认为在接下来的十年中出现的14种产品，从货币市场基金到信贷，再到抵押贷款支持证券，再到期货等等。

And dollar dominance by the end of that period went from 27% of GDP terms but to 57% of central bank reserves and 80% of financial transaction quotes. 到那个时期结束时，美元的主导地位从占GDP的27%上升到占央行储备的57%和金融交易报价的80%。

So Wall Street created products that made the dollar dominant, and the market cap of equities today is 40 trillion compared to two trillion for gold. 所以华尔街创造了使美元占据主导地位的产品，而今天股票的市值是40万亿美元，相比之下黄金是2万亿美元。

So in other words, gold is 5% of all available assets. And so in 2025, we think everything is now becoming synthetic as we or tokenized, sorry, not synthetic. 换句话说，黄金占所有可用资产的5%。所以到2025年，我们认为一切都将变得合成化，或者说代币化，抱歉，不是合成化。

So as we move not just dollars onto the blockchain, which is stable coins, but we'll move stocks and real estate, dollar dominance is going to be the opportunity of Ethereum. 所以，当我们不仅将美元（即稳定币）转移到区块链上，还将转移股票和房地产时，美元的主导地位将成为以太坊的机会。

Amit: And that's where he also thinks that ETH flips Bitcoin because Bitcoin as a store of value, Tom Lee's pretty bullish on, but Ethereum as the new blockchain of choice for tokenizing everything, not just the dollar back in 1971, that changes the entire dynamic of how Wall Street thinks of Ethereum. 阿米特: 这也是他认为以太坊将超越比特币的原因，因为比特币作为一种价值储存手段，汤姆·李对此非常看好，但以太坊作为代币化一切的新选择区块链，而不仅仅是1971年时的美元，这改变了华尔街对以太坊的整个看法。

And look, Devin Ryan, one of the best analysts on the street yesterday, he initiated a $50 price target on ESB. 你看，德文·瑞安，昨天街上最好的分析师之一，他将ESB的目标价定为50美元。

And I could not believe that a traditional Wall Street dude is calling for 50 bucks on ESB. ESBet's trading below its NAV if I'm not wrong. 我简直不敢相信一个传统的华尔街人士会给ESB定下50美元的目标价。如果我没记错的话，ESBet的交易价格低于其资产净值。

So, forget ESP versus BMR. The point is you got Wall Street guys B. Riley initiated $90 for BMR. 所以，忘了ESP和BMR的比较吧。重点是华尔街的B. Riley公司给BMR定下了90美元的目标价。

The fact that they're thinking ETH is going to matter probably because they're talking to a lot of their Wall Street buddies that are saying, "Yeah, ETH's real. Tom Lee's right about this." 他们认为以太坊将变得重要，很可能是因为他们与许多华尔街的朋友交谈，那些朋友说：“是的，以太坊是真的。汤姆·李说得对。”

Is forcing them to say, "All right, well, our clients are probably going to need exposure, and these ETH treasuries might be the best way to get that exposure." 这迫使他们说：“好吧，我们的客户可能需要接触，而这些以太坊国债可能是获得这种接触的最佳方式。”

So, although the stock has kind of sucked over the past two weeks because Ethereum has sucked, that thesis, I think, is very intact. 所以，尽管过去两周由于以太坊表现不佳，这只股票也表现平平，但我认为这个论点仍然非常完整。

And, you know, we don't know how it's going to play out, but I think one could argue that it will play out more to the upside than not. 而且，你知道，我们不知道它会如何发展，但我认为可以说它更有可能向上发展。

But we're going to have to see long term how this actually ends up making a run. 但我们必须长期观察这最终会如何发展。

PayPal稳定币300万亿错误事件

My thoughts on the PayPal $300 trillion dollar stable coin accident yesterday. Actually, we have some coverage on that. 我对PayPal昨天300万亿美元稳定币事故的看法。实际上，我们对此有一些报道。

I didn't even fully get the story. So, let's get some coverage here. 我甚至没有完全了解这个故事。所以，我们在这里获取一些报道。

But yeah, I mean, for those that heard the story, it was kind of wild to have a $300 trillion mistake. 但是，是的，我的意思是，对于那些听说过这个故事的人来说，犯下300万亿美元的错误有点疯狂。

But, that's kind of what happened. 但，事情就是这样。

Speaker: Has the story for us. Can explain to us what exactly happened here. McKenzie. 发言人: 为我们讲述这个故事。能向我们解释这里到底发生了什么吗？麦肯齐。

McKenzie: Hey, David. So, PayPal's big crypto bet is its dollar peg stablecoin. It's called PYUSD, and as you said, it briefly created $300 trillion out of thin air this week without any reserves to back it. 麦肯齐: 嘿，大卫。PayPal在加密货币领域的大赌注是其与美元挂钩的稳定币，名为PYUSD。正如你所说，它本周曾短暂地凭空创造了300万亿美元，没有任何储备金支持。

Now, there aren't even enough real dollars in the system to cover that. It was more than 100 times all the US cash in circulation. 现在，系统中甚至没有足够的真实美元来覆盖它。这超过了美国所有流通现金的100倍。

Now, in terms of what happened here, the mistake was made by Paxos, which is PYUSD's issuer, during an internal transfer. 现在，就这里发生的事情而言，这个错误是由PYUSD的发行方Paxos在一次内部转账中造成的。

It showed up publicly on the Ethereum blockchain and then was reversed about 20 minutes later after on-chain observers flagged it. 它公开显示在以太坊区块链上，然后在大约20分钟后被链上观察者标记后撤销了。

Now, fat finger mistakes, they've happened before. Tether once minted 5 billion dollars by accident. 现在，“肥手指”错误 (Fat Finger Error: 由于人为操作失误，如输入错误数字或指令，导致巨额交易或错误交易) 以前也发生过。泰达币曾不小心铸造了50亿美元。

Amit: That's a $300 trillion fat finger. This is the first time I'm hearing the story and getting any real coverage on it. 阿米特: 那是300万亿美元的“肥手指”错误。这是我第一次听到这个故事并获得任何真实报道。

I mean, like, as much as I believe this whole stable coin thesis makes sense, and I think it really will be a tailwind for Ethereum, you can make a $300 trillion fat finger mistake. That is that's a little aggressive. 我的意思是，尽管我相信整个稳定币的理论是合理的，而且我认为它确实会成为以太坊的助推力，但你竟然能犯下300万亿美元的“肥手指”错误。这有点过分了。

Speaker: And Group mistakenly sent $81 trillion in a single transaction last year. 发言人: 去年，Group公司在单笔交易中错误地发送了81万亿美元。

But this incident comes after Congress passed the Genius Act, the first US stablecoin law, which is raising questions about why that framework didn't prevent it. 但这一事件发生在美国国会通过了首部美国稳定币法案《天才法案》之后，这引发了人们对该框架为何未能阻止此事的质疑。

Analysts found that PYUSD's smart contract was part of the problem. It gave a single wallet unlimited minting rights. 分析师发现PYUSD的智能合约是问题的一部分。它赋予了单个钱包无限的铸币权。

That means no rate limits, no multi-signature protections. And as for the fallout, the token briefly lost its dollar peg. 这意味着没有速率限制，没有多重签名保护。至于后果，该代币短暂失去了与美元的挂钩。

One major crypto lending platform froze all PYUSD activity as a precaution, and the crypto market started to sell off. 一个主要的加密货币借贷平台作为预防措施冻结了所有PYUSD活动，加密货币市场开始抛售。

Now that said, Paxos did flag that no customer funds were affected. 话虽如此，Paxos确实指出没有客户资金受到影响。

Still, New York's financial regulator says that it is reviewing the incident and is in contact with both Paxos and PayPal. 尽管如此，纽约金融监管机构表示正在审查此事件，并已与Paxos和PayPal取得联系。

No word from PayPal on this. Their shares down 5% since last week, though they are turning positive after the open. PayPal对此没有发表任何评论。他们的股票自上周以来下跌了5%，尽管开盘后正在转为上涨。

Sarah: Growing pains, I guess. McKenzie, thank you. Kenzie Sagalas, when we 莎拉: 成长的烦恼吧，我想。麦肯齐，谢谢你。肯齐·萨加拉斯，当我们

Amit: Can we all start a stable coin and make, we don't need 300 trillion. We don't even need a trillion. 阿米特: 我们都能发行一个稳定币，然后赚，我们不需要300万亿美元。我们甚至不需要1万亿美元。

We don't even need a billion. Can we just mint like a couple million of stable coin for us? 我们甚至不需要10亿美元。我们能为自己铸造几百万稳定币吗？

Is that possible somehow? We don't need to be that aggressive. 这有可能吗？我们不需要那么激进。

No one's going to notice a couple million, right? 300 trillion. Okay. 100 times the US dollars in circulation. People won't notice that. 几百万没人会注意到的，对吧？300万亿美元。好的。是美国流通美元的100倍。人们不会注意到那个。

Couple million. No one's going to care that much. Dude, the thing about 300 trillion is like it makes money literally worthless, right? 几百万。没人会那么在意。伙计，300万亿美元的问题是它让钱变得一文不值，对吧？

If we had 300 trillion in if you had that much amount the actual circulation, like the dynamics of supply and demand completely fall apart. 如果我们有300万亿美元，如果你有那么多实际流通量，那么供需动态就会完全崩溃。

That's kind of wild. They also said Citi sent 81 trillion last year by mistake. 这有点疯狂。他们还说花旗银行去年不小心发送了81万亿美元。

So, it's not just PayPal. It's like companies have made these mistakes before. This one was just really bad. 所以，不只是PayPal。好像公司以前也犯过这种错误。这次只是特别糟糕。

PayPal 6641. Did PayPal tweet about this? Did they respond? PayPal 6641。PayPal对此发推特了吗？他们回应了吗？

I would wonder what the response would be. They should make a joke out of it. 我很好奇会是什么回应。他们应该拿这个开个玩笑。

No, they're tweeting Christmas cards with customer spotlights. Okay, that's fine. 不，他们正在发带有客户亮点的圣诞贺卡。好的，那没关系。

They should make a joke out of it. The intern should just go on PayPal's Twitter account and type in NBD. No big deal. Or they should type in my B. My bad. Or oops. 他们应该拿这个开个玩笑。实习生应该直接在PayPal的推特账号上输入“NBD”（没什么大不了的）。或者他们应该输入“我的B”（我的错）。或者“哎呀”。

Like, you gotta you gotta make this funny somehow. That's wild. 你得想办法让这变得有趣。这太疯狂了。

Absolutely freaking wild. Oracle's down 7%. Oracle increased their RPO aggressively. 简直是疯狂。甲骨文下跌7%。甲骨文大幅增加了他们的剩余履约义务。

So, this one is getting hit regardless of that. And then the S&P is still barely up on the day. 所以，这只股票无论如何都受到了打击。然后标普指数今天仍然勉强上涨。

It is just one of those days up and down across the board. Not really seeing that much of a difference. 这只是那种全面上下波动的日子。没有看到太大的区别。

市场健康调整与长期增益

We shocked the world. Yeah, that's what they got to say. 我们震惊了世界。是的，他们就是这么说的。

I look, it's not all PayPal's fault. It's Paxos. I'm not even taking shots at PayPal. 你看，这不全是PayPal的错。是Paxos。我甚至没有在攻击PayPal。

I just think it's just crazy for that to even be possible. A $300 trillion mistake. 我只是觉得这竟然可能发生，简直太疯狂了。300万亿美元的错误。

It is absolutely wild to see that happening. 看到这种情况发生简直是绝对疯狂。

Amit, what is a good value dip today? What are people buying? All right, put in the chat, what's a good value dip today? 阿米特，今天有什么好的价值股可以逢低买入？大家都在买什么？好的，在聊天里告诉我，今天有什么好的价值股可以逢低买入？

I mean, we talked to Chris yesterday. He is on this Verizon binge. He really thinks Verizon can outperform next year. 我的意思是，我们昨天和克里斯谈过。他沉迷于Verizon。他真的认为Verizon明年能跑赢大盘。

UNH obviously is one of the names that people think is deep value. UNH显然是人们认为具有深度价值的股票之一。

PayPal, Salesforce, AT&T, Crown Castle, Vodafone, American Tower. You got a lot of those names that giving you yield that people might be after. PayPal、Salesforce、AT&T、Crown Castle、Vodafone、American Tower。你有很多这类提供收益的股票，人们可能会追逐。

I mean, look, I like Amazon, but who knows, maybe Amazon has a crappy earnings. This thing goes below 200. 我的意思是，你看，我喜欢亚马逊，但谁知道呢，也许亚马逊的财报会很糟糕。这东西跌破200。

If it is, I'm not going to cry about it. But, no one buying it here should be afraid of below 200. 如果是这样，我也不会哭。但是，在这里买它的人不应该害怕跌破200。

You should be willing to get excited for that. But it could happen. 你应该为此感到兴奋。但这可能会发生。

BMR, SoFi. I do think Tanner is right about SoFi. I SoFi's going to crush. BMR，SoFi。我确实认为Tanner对SoFi的看法是正确的。SoFi会表现出色。

It's hard for me to imagine SoFi doesn't crush. I just don't know if the macro is going to be good enough. 我很难想象SoFi不会表现出色。我只是不知道宏观经济是否会足够好。

Dude, SoFi's earnings are in nine days. Do things change in nine days? 伙计，SoFi的财报在九天后。九天内情况会改变吗？

Do we get like a reversal of all this sentiment decline and China stuff in nine days? Maybe. Maybe not. 我们能在九天内看到所有这些情绪低迷和中国问题的逆转吗？也许会。也许不会。

By the way, Perplexity introduced language language stuff yesterday, language features, and Duolingo took a hit yesterday based on that. 顺便说一句，Perplexity昨天推出了语言功能，Duolingo因此受到了打击。

So, Duolingo continuously getting hit across the board with different companies working on this stuff. 所以，Duolingo不断地受到不同公司在这方面工作的全面打击。

Oh, QBTZ should be pumping, right? The Quantum short. Yeah, look at that. 16% on the day. 哦，QBTZ应该在上涨，对吧？量子空头。是的，看那个。今天上涨了16%。

It's up basically 37% over the past two days. If you got in right when DWave was about to start dumping, you're up like 40% in two days, which is pretty cool. 它在过去两天基本上上涨了37%。如果你在DWave即将开始抛售时买入，两天内你就能赚40%，这很酷。

But that one is green on the day. Duolingo is slightly green. 但那只股票今天上涨了。Duolingo小幅上涨。

IQ. That one still's down. SPY below 660 again. Goodness, bro. IQ。那只股票还在下跌。SPY再次跌破660。天哪，兄弟。

Again, the reason it's surprising to me is because we really have not had a day like this where you go green to red, green to red, green to red these many times. 再次，这让我感到惊讶的原因是，我们真的很久没有经历过这样一天，多次在绿盘和红盘之间来回切换。

I mean, usually it's a, usually I end the market open, and we know the trend is green, and maybe something switches it by the market close, but like the trend is green. 我的意思是，通常情况下，我结束市场开盘时，我们知道趋势是上涨的，也许到收盘时会有所改变，但趋势是上涨的。

Or I leave the market open, and the trend is red, and it's like, "Okay, maybe, you know, something good happens in the middle of the day, but it ends up being red." 或者我离开市场时，趋势是下跌的，然后我会想：“好吧，也许，你知道，白天会发生一些好事，但最终还是下跌。”

And more often than not, over the past five months, the trend has been green because we got a really good run, and it is what it is. 而且在过去五个月里，大多数情况下趋势都是上涨的，因为我们经历了一波非常好的行情，事实就是如此。

But a day like today is just completely up and down, back and forth. 但像今天这样的一天，完全是上下波动，来回震荡。

K View's up today. This is the Tylenol. Oh, wow. They're up 8%. Tylenol parent company. K View今天上涨了。这是泰诺。哦，哇。他们上涨了8%。泰诺的母公司。

I guess people are going long the tism today. I guess that's what's happening. 我想今天人们都在做多自闭症。我想这就是正在发生的事情。

Yeah. Core down 147 to 131. Tesla's earnings next week will lift the market. 是的。核心业务从147跌到131。特斯拉下周的财报将提振市场。

Dude, I don't know if Tesla's earnings are going to do that. I feel like Tesla earnings are going to be the one that we have to try to survive. 伙计，我不知道特斯拉的财报是否会那样。我觉得特斯拉的财报将是我们必须努力挺过去的。

Like Tesla will have an okay earnings because of the deliveries, but we, I mean again, this is not me saying it. 比如特斯拉会有一个不错的财报，因为交付量，但我们，我的意思是，这又不是我说的。

Elon has guided until Q2 2026, "Don't expect growth." 埃隆已经指引到2026年第二季度，“不要期待增长。”

For the past four quarters, Tesla's had negative growth across the board. I don't know if that changes this quarter. 过去四个季度，特斯拉全面负增长。我不知道这个季度会不会改变。

I think it's still going to be pretty ugly, but I don't think it's going to be ugly enough to tank the market. 我认为情况仍然会相当糟糕，但我不认为会糟糕到足以拖垮市场。

Realistically, dude, yeah, Tesla's got to do well, but the other six are the ones that matter to keep the bull market going. 老实说，伙计，是的，特斯拉必须表现出色，但其他六家公司才是维持牛市的关键。

I mean, unless Tesla really surprises to the upside, Amazon, Meta, Google, the ones that are in this AI capex, like that's the stuff that really matters. 我的意思是，除非特斯拉真的带来惊喜，否则亚马逊、Meta、谷歌这些在人工智能资本支出领域的公司，才是真正重要的。

It's not going to be Tesla. At the end of the day, we already know them. It just might not be the best. 不会是特斯拉。归根结底，我们已经了解他们了。可能不是最好的。

I think Elon is more concerned about the shareholder meeting even more than earnings right now. 我认为埃隆现在更关心股东大会，甚至超过了财报。

Now, granted, he might want to give a good earnings. Like, look, the stock down 20% is not going to be fun going into that earnings, the shareholder vote. 现在，他可能确实想交出一份不错的财报。你看，股价下跌20%进入财报季，股东投票会很不愉快。

So, they might be incentivized to give a really good earnings, but then again, they also can't control it. 所以，他们可能会有动力交出一份非常好的财报，但话说回来，他们也无法控制。

We know the cars they sold, and it's just not as much as they did last year. 我们知道他们卖了多少辆车，但就是没有去年那么多。

659 on the S&P. BMR. Are we below 48? No. 4880. 标普指数659点。BMR。我们跌破48了吗？没有。4880。

Yeah. Look, Tesla was up last earnings, but then it tanked the day after or the week after. 是的。你看，特斯拉上次财报后上涨了，但随后一天或一周后就暴跌了。

I mean, like, I don't know. I'm just listening to what Elon said. 我的意思是，我不知道。我只是听埃隆说的。

If you go listen to the earnings call again, Elon explicitly said, "By the second half of next year, we are not going to show growth." 如果你再听一遍财报电话会议，埃隆明确表示：“到明年下半年，我们将不会显示增长。”

So he was just telling people, "You got to give us time," which is reasonable, right? 所以他只是告诉人们：“你们得给我们时间，”这很合理，对吧？

At the end of the day, you got to give them some time to figure out a lot of what they're doing. 归根结底，你得给他们一些时间来弄清楚他们正在做的大部分事情。

Rates will come down by then. That's going to help car sales also. 届时利率会下降。那也会帮助汽车销售。

But I wouldn't have the highest expectations for Tesla. 但我不会对特斯拉抱有最高期望。

Is BMR buying ETH this weekend? There were some accounts yesterday showing that BMR probably already bought ETH over the past couple days. BMR这个周末会买以太坊吗？昨天有一些报道显示BMR可能在过去几天已经购买了以太坊。

I mean, I would imagine they buy more. Basically getting the same price you got last week on Sunday. 我的意思是，我想他们会买更多。基本上得到了你上周日买到的同样价格。

VG, how's that one doing? 8.93. Is Next still up 9%? No, it lost half of it. Up 4%. VG，那只股票表现如何？8.93。Next还在上涨9%吗？不，它损失了一半。上涨4%。

Growth in RoboTaxi. Well, RoboTaxi is not going to really show anything. They only unveiled it in Austin. RoboTaxi的增长。嗯，RoboTaxi不会真正显示出什么。他们只在奥斯汀发布了它。

And they didn't charge a lot of money per drive, right? Like they charged like $4.20 per ride. 而且他们每次驾驶收费也不多，对吧？比如他们每次收费4.20美元。

I don't think RoboTaxi is going to show anything. 我不认为RoboTaxi会显示出什么。

I just don't know what there is to be outside energy will grow, but energy doesn't contribute that much to the bottom line. 我只是不知道除了能源之外还有什么会增长，但能源对利润的贡献并不大。

I don't know. But I think the other hyperscalers really are going to matter. 我不知道。但我认为其他超大规模公司真的会很重要。

Amazon right here 212. That one's down 1%. 亚马逊就在这里212。那只下跌1%。

Tom Lee tweeted about Ethereum. He says this is very constructive for ETH. 汤姆·李发推特谈论以太坊。他说这对以太坊非常有建设性。

He's quoting a chart that says at this point only levered ETH positions are the shorts. 他引用了一张图表，说目前只有杠杆化的以太坊头寸是空头。

I mean like yeah, that's true. If you're super levered ETH short, unless ETH has a massive, a massive move down, we're talking about, you know, 3200, 3300. 我的意思是，是的，那是真的。如果你是超级杠杆化的以太坊空头，除非以太坊有一次巨大的下跌，我们说的是，你知道，3200、3300。

Should be hopefully a sign of somewhat of a bottom, but I guess we're going to have to see. 希望能是某种程度的底部信号，但我想我们拭目以待。

Substack深度分析与特朗普言论

All right, that's what we got. That is what we got for today. Looks like China descent will have that meeting. 好的，这就是我们今天的情况。看起来中国方面将举行那次会议。

And hopefully we get something constructive from that. Stocks are flat. 希望我们能从中得到一些建设性的东西。股票持平。

I mean, you're not getting a trend one way or the other. So, when we get back on the market close, we'll kind of see how this ends up looking like. 我的意思是，你没有看到任何趋势。所以，当我们收盘时，我们会看看这最终会是什么样子。

But that's what we got. I think the summary of this here is regional banking stuff not that big of an issue. 但这就是我们所得到的。我认为这里的总结是区域银行问题不是什么大问题。

China stuff is an issue. And Trump saying that, you know, they're going to get rid of the 100% tariff thing this morning made things not as bad as it was at 2 a.m. 中国问题是个问题。而特朗普今天早上说他们将取消100%的关税，这让情况没有凌晨2点那么糟糕。

The Bent China discussion hopefully much more optimistic for the markets if we get some good news from that. 如果本特与中国的讨论能带来一些好消息，希望市场会更加乐观。

And then finally, I would say this is October volatility on a Friday where you got options expiring and the market's really exhausted. 最后，我想说这是10月份在一个周五的波动，期权到期，市场真的筋疲力尽。

And a lot of these names that are either going flat or red or slightly red or slightly green is just endemic of the idea that markets are tired, and they might want to take a breather. 而许多这些股票要么持平，要么下跌，要么小幅下跌，要么小幅上涨，这只是市场疲惫的普遍现象，它们可能想喘口气。

And I think that's what we got. Now, some of the more hardcore names like a BMR are not, are not flat because ETH is getting hit. 我想这就是我们所看到的。现在，一些更核心的股票，比如BMR，并没有持平，因为以太坊受到了打击。

But then you have an AMD which look, 1% is not flat, but I mean it's 1%, right? After a 40% run, you can't get too upset about that. 但你看看AMD，1%不是持平，但我的意思是它只有1%，对吧？在上涨40%之后，你不能对此太沮丧。

So, I think that's what we got. I think that is what we've got for today, and we'll be back at 3:45 to see what we got going on. 所以，我想这就是我们所得到的。我想这就是我们今天的情况，我们将在3:45回来看看发生了什么。

Andy, thanks for the super chat. Keep draining the threes. Shout out to the chat. Andy, thank you for the super chat and thank you for being here as well. 安迪，谢谢你的超级聊天。继续投三分球。向聊天室致敬。安迪，谢谢你的超级聊天，也谢谢你在这里。

Matt, thanks for the $10 super chat. VIX index was below 23 77% of the days. This might be good to buy puts on the VIX. 马特，谢谢你的10美元超级聊天。VIX指数在77%的日子里低于23。这可能是买入VIX看跌期权的好时机。

Yeah, I mean look, it's worked out. If you bought it at when it was 25 right now, yeah, 2360. 是的，我的意思是，看，它奏效了。如果你在它25的时候买入，现在是2360。

I mean, it is down 6% on the day. If that one continues to go down, puts in the VIX would not be bad. 我的意思是，它今天下跌了6%。如果它继续下跌，买入VIX的看跌期权不会是坏事。

But if this kind of normalizes at this level above 20, might not be the best opportunity right here. 但如果它在20以上这个水平正常化，那可能不是最好的机会。

So, we're going to have to see as we get towards the end of the day. 所以，我们得看看临近收盘时会发生什么。

All right, there you go. That's what we got. You know, to be honest, might just not be worth looking at the portfolio today, keeping up with the markets. 好的，就是这样。这就是我们所得到的。你知道，老实说，今天可能不值得看投资组合，也不值得关注市场。

It looks like it's going to be flat throughout the rest of the day. We'll be back on the close. We'll have Steve come on. 看起来今天剩下的时间都会持平。我们收盘时再回来。我们会请史蒂夫来。

We'll see what is going on across the board, but as of now, it's just not much that we can really get that deep into. 我们会看看全面发生了什么，但目前，我们真的没有太多可以深入探讨的。

And we're just not getting the price action to kind of resemble that either. 而且我们也没有看到价格走势有任何类似的情况。

Amit, why are we selling off so much? Well, we're not actually. I mean, again, the S&P right there is flat. 阿米特，我们为什么抛售这么多？嗯，我们实际上没有。我的意思是，你看，标普指数在那里是持平的。

At 4 a.m. we were selling off a lot, and I still don't have an answer for that, but Trump calmed everyone down with the China comment, so I guess China was the reason. 凌晨4点我们抛售了很多，我对此仍然没有答案，但特朗普用关于中国的评论安抚了所有人，所以我想中国是原因。

But, you know, now we're just kind of staying where we are right here. 但是，你知道，现在我们只是保持现状。

Benny says, "Honestly, not a bad day at all. Zoom out, been cooking for a long time." 本尼说：“老实说，今天一点也不糟。放大看，已经酝酿很久了。”

Yeah, and look, I don't mean to be gloomy here, but like obviously it sucks for everybody seeing not seeing the recovery that we saw on, remember we were at 670 on Monday on the S&P. 是的，你看，我不是想在这里表现悲观，但显然，大家看到没有像我们周一在标普指数上看到的670点那样的复苏，这让人很沮丧。

We were recovering a lot of that Friday stuff, and then kind of just went the opposite direction. 我们正在从周五的很多事情中恢复，然后就朝着相反的方向发展了。

However, the bright side of all this is that it is really healthy to see a lot of the nonsense that was running over the past couple weeks like get flushed out. 然而，这一切的光明面是，看到过去几周很多胡闹的股票被清洗出局，这真的很健康。

Unfortunately, everything else has to get flushed out with it. Those stocks are getting like, you know, if Amazon's down 3%, you got a quantum name that's down 15%. 不幸的是，其他一切也必须随之被清除。那些股票正在经历，你知道，如果亚马逊下跌3%，那么一个量子计算股票可能下跌15%。

So, that's that that that stuff just has to happen. And hopefully it makes the markets a bit healthier. 所以，那些事情就是必须发生。希望这能让市场更健康一些。

I think all of us were feeling uneasy over the past couple weeks with the meme stock ETF and 5x leverage ETFs that are being introduced to the market. 我认为我们所有人过去几周都对迷因股ETF和市场上推出的5倍杠杆ETF感到不安。

Massive call volume on days where you know you probably shouldn't be getting people buying that many calls. 在那些你可能不应该看到人们购买那么多看涨期权的日子里，却有大量的看涨期权交易量。

Like in general getting a breather as much as it hurts the portfolio short term is just short-term pain for long-term gain, which is probably the best way to kind of navigate it. 就像通常情况下，短期内对投资组合造成伤害的喘息期，只是为了长期收益而承受的短期痛苦，这可能是最好的应对方式。

All right, that's it. That is it for me. We'll be back on the close. We'll see what we got going on. 好的，就是这样。我今天就到这里。我们收盘时再回来。我们会看看发生了什么。

First of all, I just want to thank everybody for subscribing to the Substack. The first two deep dives will be out today. 首先，我只想感谢大家订阅Substack。前两篇深度分析文章今天就会发布。

The first two deep dives will be out today. I don't even know how Substack works, but they have these ranks and these categories. 前两篇深度分析文章今天就会发布。我甚至不知道Substack是如何运作的，但他们有这些排名和类别。

And we're number one in the new best seller on Substack, and we're number two in business, which I mean, it's I didn't even know Substack does something like that. 我们在Substack的新畅销榜上排名第一，在商业类排名第二，我的意思是，我甚至不知道Substack会做这样的事情。

So, I am very, very humbled for the people that are subscribing to it, and it means a lot. 所以，对于那些订阅的人，我感到非常非常荣幸，这意义重大。

So I'll put the link right here in the chat for those that want to subscribe. And it's free. There's no paywall. 所以我会把链接放在聊天里，给那些想订阅的人。而且是免费的。没有付费墙。

A bunch of you guys have pledged like a donation per year, and I deeply appreciate that. That is not required. 你们很多人都承诺每年捐款，我深表感谢。这不是必需的。

None of the content will ever need money to be able to access the research. 所有内容都无需付费即可访问研究报告。

So, if you want to subscribe, you can subscribe. It'll probably be out around like 7 p.m. tonight, two deep dives. 所以，如果你想订阅，可以订阅。今晚大约7点会发布，两篇深度分析。

And we'll be doing a lot more deep dives every single month. But I am enjoying the process. 我们每个月都会做更多的深度分析。但我很享受这个过程。

I mean, it's taken me a month to write these two deep dives. And the written research is not easy, but it really does feel fun. 我的意思是，我花了一个月时间写这两篇深度分析。书面研究不容易，但真的很有趣。

When you put everything together and then put it out into one thing. It's just something you can feel a little bit proud of just like, you know, saying, "I wrote this," and it's there. 当你把所有东西整合在一起，然后把它发布出来。这就像，你知道，你可以有点自豪地说：“这是我写的”，它就在那里。

And people can then read it. And Substack is a platform where people legit read, so people are actually reading every word. 然后人们就可以阅读它。Substack是一个人们真正阅读的平台，所以人们真的会阅读每一个字。

It's different than audio and video. And so yeah, I do think it's pretty, pretty cool. 这与音频和视频不同。所以，是的，我确实认为这非常非常酷。

泽连斯基会晤与市场情绪

Is Trump live right now? There's no way Trump is live. Hold on. Is he actually live? 特朗普现在在直播吗？特朗普不可能在直播。等等。他真的在直播吗？

What is he legit live? I think he's live. I'm not getting the feed of it though. 他真的在直播吗？我想他在直播。但我没有收到直播流。

Content in chief. That is correct. Hold on. Let me see if there's a different one. 内容总监。没错。等等。我看看有没有别的。

Wait, he's live. Is he having a cabinet meeting today? 等等，他在直播。他今天有内阁会议吗？

Uh, hold on, hold on, hold on. I don't see I don't see the feed, and no one's the business channels aren't covering it. 呃，等等，等等，等等。我没看到直播，而且商业频道也没有报道。

So, where would he be live at? The White House is not live either. 那么，他会在哪里直播呢？白宫也没有直播。

President Trump address. Is this it? Some of these feeds are playing old live streams. 特朗普总统讲话。是这个吗？有些直播流在播放旧的直播。

Is this one a real? 11:30? He'll be Oh, 11:30. Oh, Zelensky meeting today. I forgot. 这个是真的吗？11:30？他会是哦，11:30。哦，今天泽连斯基会面。我忘了。

Oh, I forgot. You're right. Oh, boy. All right. Well, we'll see what happens with that. 哦，我忘了。你说得对。哦，天哪。好吧。我们会看看那会发生什么。

Yeah. Okay. So, he will be live. It's probably not going to happen at 11:30. 是的。好的。所以，他会直播。可能不会在11:30发生。

All right. We'll cover that on the close, but yeah, we'll get Zelensky. That'll be in 20 minutes. 好的。我们收盘时会报道，但，是的，我们会请泽连斯基。那会在20分钟后。

All right. Yeah, we'll cover that on the close, and we'll see what happens from there. 好的。是的，我们收盘时会报道，然后看看会发生什么。

So, we'll see what we've got going on. All right. Yeah, strap in on that one. That's going to be 所以，我们会看看发生了什么。好的。是的，准备好应对那个。那将会是

Again, Trump said that he had a conversation with Putin yesterday, and he was joking about sending Putin Tomahawk missiles and all this stuff. 再说一次，特朗普说他昨天和普京谈过话，他开玩笑说要给普京送战斧导弹之类的。

And so, I mean, we're gonna see what the tone is in the context of Zelensky. 所以，我的意思是，我们将会看到在泽连斯基的背景下，语气会是怎样的。

This is this is the clip from yesterday when Trump was talking about this. 这是昨天特朗普谈论这个话题时的片段。

Speaker: Putin tried to dissuade you from selling Tomahawk missiles. 发言人: 普京试图劝阻你出售战斧导弹。

Trump: Well, of course. What do you think he's going to say? "Please sell Tomahawks." 特朗普: 嗯，当然。你觉得他会说什么？“请卖战斧导弹。”

Speaker: Is he going to say, "Please sell those Tomahawks. I really appreciate it." 发言人: 他会说：“请卖那些战斧导弹。我真的很感激。”吗？

Trump: I did actually say, "Would you mind if I gave a couple of thousand Tomahawks to your opposition?" I did say that to him. I said it just that way. 特朗普: 我确实说过：“如果你不介意我给你的反对派几千枚战斧导弹，你介意吗？”我确实对他这么说过。我就那样说的。

He didn't like the idea. He really didn't like the idea. No, I said it that way. 他不喜欢这个主意。他真的不喜欢这个主意。不，我就是那样说的。

You have to be a little bit lighthearted sometimes, but no, he doesn't want Tomahawk. 你有时必须轻松一点，但不，他不想战斧导弹。

Tomahawk is a vicious weapon. It's a vicious offensive, incredibly destructive weapon. Nobody wants Tom. 战斧导弹是一种恶毒的武器。它是一种恶毒的进攻性、极具破坏力的武器。没有人想要战斧。

Amit: So, I mean, based on that tone with the meeting with Putin yesterday, I wonder what they're going to say with Zelensky. 阿米特: 所以，我的意思是，根据昨天与普京会晤时的那种语气，我不知道他们会和泽连斯基说什么。

But we'll cover that in the market close and see what we got going on there. 但我们会在收盘时报道，看看那里发生了什么。

All right, that's it for me. Thank you everybody. Again, if you want to subscribe to the Substack, two deep dives will be out to start off the Substack journey later tonight. 好的，我这边就到这里。谢谢大家。再次，如果你想订阅Substack，今晚晚些时候将发布两篇深度分析文章，开启Substack之旅。

Thank you everybody for being here. Deeply appreciate it. I will be back on the market open. 感谢大家的到来。深表感谢。我会在市场开盘时回来。

Hopefully we stay flat to end out the day, and then we'll kind of see how this turns out as we get to the end of the day. 希望我们今天能持平收盘，然后我们再看看今天结束时会是怎样。

Word of the day. You're right. We forgot that. How do you say this word? What is this word of the day? 今日词汇。你说得对。我们忘了。这个词怎么说？今天的词汇是什么？

Speaker: Smplastic. 发言人: Smplastic。

Amit: Smplastic. Okay, that was kind of an easy word, but capable of shaping diverse elements or concepts into a unified hole. 阿米特: Smplastic。好的，那是一个比较简单的词，但它指的是能够将各种不同的元素或概念塑造成一个统一的整体。

I have never heard anyone who's ever used this word before. Smplastic capable of shaping diverse elements or concepts into. 我以前从未听过有人用过这个词。Smplastic能够将不同的元素或概念塑造成。

I think it's basically saying you're trying to piece together different elements of a concept and bring it all into one story. 我认为它基本上是说你试图将一个概念的不同元素拼凑起来，并将其全部融入一个故事中。

But I've never heard of this word being described to use that. 但我从未听过这个词被用来描述这种用法。

Yeah, I guess I try to be smplastic every market open, market closed. 是的，我想我每次市场开盘、收盘都努力做到smplastic。

But then Trump tweets something, and it's hard to bring all the concepts together into a unified story because there's nothing unified about it when he says something. 但当特朗普发推特时，很难将所有概念整合到一个统一的故事中，因为他说的话没有任何统一性。

So, it's hard to do that every single day. All right, that's it. Thank everybody. 所以，每天都这样做很难。好的，就是这样。谢谢大家。

Appreciate it. I'll see you guys on the market close. Bye everybody. Have a good one. 感谢。我们收盘时再见。大家再见。祝大家一切顺利。