特朗普对伊‘最糟局面’预警与德州史上最贵初选 New York Times Podcasts 2026-03-04

伊朗最高领袖的紧急选拔

崔西·蒙福德 (Tracy Mumford): 来自《纽约时报》的头条新闻。我是崔西·蒙福德。今天是 3 月 4 日星期三。以下是我们的报道内容。

《纽约时报》获悉,在美以联合袭击导致阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊上周末丧生后,伊朗正处于选拔下一任最高领袖的边缘。据三名伊朗官员透露,目前的领跑者是哈梅内伊的儿子——莫杰塔巴·哈梅内伊 (Mojtaba Khamenei)。他是一个极具影响力但深居简出的人物,以与该国革命卫队关系密切而闻名。

德黑兰的一位分析人士表示,伊朗政府的强硬支持者可能会迅速支持他,将其视为继承其“烈士”父亲衣钵的人。但伊朗很大一部分民众可能会出于同样的原因拒绝他,认为他是过去几个月里杀害了数千名反政府抗议者的压迫政权的延续。

负责选拔的教士们最早可能在今天宣布决定。此前,特朗普总统昨天表示,美以的袭击已经消灭了一些白宫此前认为的潜在继任者。

Original English

Tracy Mumford: From the New York Times, it's the headlines. I'm Tracy Mumford. Today's Wednesday, March 4th. Here's what we're covering.

The Times has learned Iran is on the verge of selecting its next Supreme Leader to head the regime after the US-Israeli attacks killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei over the weekend. According to three Iranian officials, the frontrunner is Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei. He's an influential but reclusive figure known for his close ties to the country's revolutionary guards.

One analyst in Tehran said that hardline supporters of Iran's government could back him quickly, viewing him as picking up the mantle of his martyred father. But a large portion of Iran could reject him for the very same reason, seeing him as a continuation of the oppressive regime that's killed thousands of anti-government protesters in just the last few months.

The clerics making the selection could announce their decision as soon as today. It comes after President Trump said yesterday that the US-Israeli strikes had taken out some of the Iranian officials the White House had viewed as potential successors.

特朗普与“破器皿原则”

唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump): 现在我们又发现了一组人。根据报告,他们可能也已经死了。所以我猜你们会有第三波人选出现,很快我们就谁都不认识了。

我猜最坏的情况是,我们做了这些努力,然后接管的人和前任一样糟糕,对吧?这可能会发生。我们不希望那种情况发生,那可能是最糟的。你经历了这个过程,五年后却发现你放上去的人并没有更好。

Original English

Donald Trump: And now we have another group. They may be dead also based on reports. So I guess you have a third wave coming and pretty soon we're not going to know anybody.

I guess the worst case would be we do this and then somebody takes over who's as bad as the previous person, right? That could happen. Uh, we don't want that to happen. That would probably be the worst. You go through this and then, uh, in 5 years you realize you put somebody in who was no better.

崔西·蒙福德 (Tracy Mumford): 特朗普没有明确说明美国希望谁来领导这个国家。总的来说,特朗普似乎正在与任何针对伊朗的长期计划保持距离,分析人士称这给局势增加了新的不确定性。

多年来在华盛顿,我们一直听到一条被称为**“破器皿原则” (Pottery Barn rule)** 的格言:你打破它,你就要拥有它。也就是说,如果美国决定在一个国家发动战争,它就要对后果负责。但在过去的几天里,特朗普总统明确表示,他根本不相信这条原则。

我的同事安东·特罗伊基 (Anton Troyki) 在《时报》负责全球事务报道。

安东·特罗伊基 (Anton Troyki): 他们已经明确表示,他们相信如果为了美国国家安全和利益而认为有必要,美国有权攻击任何地方的任何国家。与此同时,他们也明确表示,他们不认为美国对军事行动后这些国家发生的事情负有责任。

当然,在伊朗的案例中,这种风险是巨大的。该国的中央权力机构和安全部队被削弱得越严重,基础设施被破坏得越多,就越有面临内战混沌或更压迫政权夺权的风险。

Original English

Tracy Mumford: Trump did not say specifically who the US wanted to see lead the country. In all, Trump seems to be distancing himself from any long-term plans for Iran, which analysts say adds a new level of uncertainty to the situation. For years in Washington, we've heard about this maxim called the Pottery Barn rule. You break it, you own it. As in, if the US decides to start a war in a country, it's responsible for the consequences. But in the last few days, President Trump has made it clear that he does not believe in the Pottery Barn rule at all. My colleague Anton Troyki covers global affairs for the Times.

Anton Troyki: They've made it clear they believe that the US has the right to attack any country anywhere if it believes that it's necessary in the name of American national security and American interests. And at the same time, they've made it clear that they don't see the US as being responsible for what happens in those countries after military action. And of course in the case of Iran, the risks of this are immense. The more the central authorities, the security forces in that country are weakened, the more infrastructure there is destroyed, the more you have the risk of either chaos and civil war or an even more repressive regime taking hold.

以色列的战略主动

崔西·蒙福德 (Tracy Mumford): 截至今日,中东地区的战斗已导致近 900 人丧生。其中绝大多数发生在伊朗,美国和以色列仍在继续发动攻击。伊朗则持续反击,打击整个海湾地区的目标,并封锁了石油和天然气的关键航道,导致能源价格飙升,引发了对广泛经济影响的担忧。

此时在华盛顿,参议院预计将在今天就限制总统继续打击伊朗的能力进行投票。民主党人表示,政府在未咨询国会的情况下发动行动是缺乏正当理由的。特朗普在给立法者的信中称,他下令空袭是为了推进美国利益并“中和”伊朗的恶意活动,这与其政府早先称存在“迫在眉睫威胁”的说法相矛盾。

现在,最后一个值得关注的线索是以色列如何抓住这一特定时刻。《时报》耶路撒冷分社社长大卫·哈尔芬格 (David Halbfinger) 表示,过去一周以色列政府受到了极大的鼓舞。

大卫·哈尔芬格 (David Halbfinger): 我们在报道中获悉,以色列总理内塔尼亚胡曾希望他的军事指挥官开始准备在 4 月至 6 月间对伊朗发动袭击。军方当时并不那么兴奋,因为那是一个单独行动的计划。

但当美国加入进来后,他们的态度变了。现在美国将承担大部分负担,摧毁伊朗东部的大部分弹道导弹能力,而且至关重要的是,美国带来了大量的空中加油机,这使得以色列的战斗机几乎可以无限期地在伊朗上空停留。这是一个巨大的助力,确实让以色列有了现在就行动的信心。

除了与美国合作打击伊朗外,以色列还在黎巴嫩开展致命袭击,称其目标是受伊朗支持的武装组织真主党 (Hezbollah)

大卫·哈尔芬格 (David Halbfinger): 我们在两个战场上真正看到的是一个非常自信的以色列。它对自己的军事、技术,当然还有情报充满信心,现在更对其操纵该地区环境以获取自身优势的能力充满信心。

Original English

Tracy Mumford: As of today, nearly 900 people have been killed in the fighting in the Middle East. The vast majority of them in Iran, which the US and Israel have continued attacking. Iran has continued to hit back, striking targets all over the Gulf and choking off a key shipping lane for oil and gas, which has caused prices for those to surge, raising fears of widespread economic repercussions. Meanwhile, in Washington, the Senate is expected to vote today on limiting the president's ability to continue to strike Iran.

Now, one last thread to follow from all of this is how Israel is seizing this particular moment. Times Jerusalem bureau chief David Halbfinger says that in the past week the Israeli government has been emboldened.

David Halbfinger: We learned in the reporting here that Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel wanted his military commanders to begin preparing for a strike on Iran that would happen between April and June. The military wasn't so thrilled about that because that was a plan to act alone. But when the United States came on board, their tune changed. Now the United States would be bearing much of the burden, taking out much of its ballistic missile capacity in the east and also crucially bringing many many airborne refueling tankers which make it possible for Israel to keep its fighters in the air over Iran almost indefinitely. That was a huge lift and that really made it possible for Israel to be confident that it could go now.

In addition to striking Iran in partnership with the US, Israel has also been carrying out deadly strikes in Lebanon, saying it's targeting Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group there. What we're really seeing here in both theaters of operation is a very confident Israel. It's confident in its military, its technology, certainly in its intelligence, and now in its ability to really shape the region and its environment to its advantage.

德州史上最昂贵的初选

崔西·蒙福德 (Tracy Mumford): 在德克萨斯州,中期选举的第一场重大战斗昨晚展开,美国参议院的几场初选结果令人屏息。

在民主党方面,州立法者詹姆斯·塔莱里科 (James Talerico) 击败了美国众议员贾斯敏·克罗基特 (Jasmine Crockett)。塔莱里科在几个月前还几乎无人知晓,他通过融入圣经教义、主张弥合分歧的信息赢得了支持。与此同时,克罗基特被视为民主党内的激进分子,并曾公开批评领导层。截至今天清晨,她尚未承认败选。

而在共和党方面,这场激烈的参议院初选尚未结束。美国参议员约翰·科宁 (John Cornyn) 现在面临与德州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿 (Ken Paxton) 的第二轮决选,因为两位候选人都没能达到 50% 的直接获胜门槛。

科宁是一位有着四届任期的建制派参议员,他一直在与帕克斯顿进行政治博弈,后者虽身陷多次伦理和法律丑闻,却成为了 MAGA 选民的宠儿。这场竞选极其昂贵。候选人和外部团体在广告上花费了近 1 亿美元,其中绝大部分是支持科宁的。加上民主党方面的支出,这些初选已成为美国历史上最昂贵的初选

Original English

Tracy Mumford: In Texas, one of the first big fights of the midterms played out last night with some nail-biting primaries for the US Senate. On the Democratic side, James Talerico, a state lawmaker, defeated US Representative Jasmine Crockett. Talerico was a virtual unknown until a few months ago, and he rallied support with Bible-infused messaging about bridging divides. Crockett, meanwhile, is viewed as a firebrand in the Democratic Party and has openly criticized its leadership.

And on the Republican side, that bitter Senate primary is not over yet. US Senator John Cornyn now faces a runoff with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton after neither candidate reached the 50% threshold to win outright. Cornyn is a dealmaking four-term senator and he's been fighting for his political life against Paxton who has survived multiple ethical and legal scandals to become a darling of MAGA voters. The race has also been expensive. The candidates and outside groups spent nearly $100 million on ads, a vast majority of that in support of Cornyn. Combined with the spending on the Democrats, these primaries are the most expensive in US history.

终结夏令时

崔西·蒙福德 (Tracy Mumford): 最后,又有一个地方宣布:“不,再也不玩了。” 告别春季拨快和秋季拨慢。加拿大西海岸的不列颠哥伦比亚省 (British Columbia) 宣布他们将停止这种做法。

政府官员: 这带来了各种问题。尽管时钟变了,孩子们还是在同一时间起床。父母失眠,孩子也失眠。

崔西·蒙福德 (Tracy Mumford): 在不列颠哥伦比亚省,本周末的调时将是最后一次。他们将选定一个时区并坚持下去。他们并不孤单。废除一年两次调时的呼声得到了巨大支持。世界上大多数国家并不实行夏令时。在美国,这是 100 多年前的产物。

美国睡眠医学学会表示应该停止调时,因为它扰乱了人体的自然生物钟,这种转变会对健康产生影响,并导致交通事故增加。美国已有终止该制度的立法,并在国会取得了缓慢但稳定的进展。不过目前调时仍在继续。所以,这个周日记得你会失去一个小时。你得重调时钟。

以上就是头条新闻。在今天的《每日新闻》(The Daily) 中,我们将关注派拉蒙 (Paramount)华纳兄弟 (Warner Brothers) 的合并如何重塑美国的文化和政治格局。

Original English

Tracy Mumford: And finally, another local is saying, "Nope, nope, not anymore" to springing forward and falling back. The top government official in Canada's West Coast province announced they are done with all that.

Official: It creates all kinds of problems. Kids get up at the same time even though the clock's changed. Parents lose sleep, kids lose sleep.

Tracy Mumford: In British Columbia, the shift this weekend will be their last. They're going to pick one time zone and stick with it. They're not alone. There's a huge amount of support for scrapping the twice-a-year time jumps. Most countries don't do it. In the US, it's a holdover from 100-plus years ago. The American Academy of Sleep Medicine has said it should stop, that it disrupts the body's natural clock, and that kind of shift can have health effects and lead to things like more traffic accidents. There is legislation to end it in the US, and that's made slow but steady progress in Congress. For now, though, it is still coming. So, Sunday, remember, you're going to lose an hour.

Those are the headlines. Today on the Daily, a look at how the merger between Paramount and Warner Brothers could reshape the cultural and political landscape in the US.

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关键字: iran-succession us-iran-conflict israel-military-strategy texas-primary-election daylight-saving-time