挪威银行投资管理公司投资经理的一天:从法律到金融的转型之路 Norges Bank Investment Management 2024-05-10

从法律到金融的职业转型

我决定学习法律,因为我认为法律是为聪明人准备的,而我是一个聪明的女孩,这就是我想做的事情。

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I decided to study law because I thought, you know, law is for clever people. I was a clever girl, that's what I wanted to do.

我非常热爱法律,去了剑桥大学学习了一些英国法律,那段经历很棒。显然,我是一名优秀的法学生,一个好女孩,所以很自然地,我会在巴黎一家大型律师事务所取得律师资格。

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Absolutely love law, went to Cambridge, did a bit of English law, that was great. Obviously, I was a good law student, I was a good girl, so obviously I was going to qualify as a lawyer in Paris in one of the big law firms.

然而,我刚开始在那里工作就意识到,这绝对不适合我。这基本上与我的一切都不符,我是一个精力充沛的人,喜欢四处走动,而如果你想成为一名公司法(Corporate Law: 专注于企业设立、运营、并购等法律事务的领域)律师,你就得一直坐在办公桌前。

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Started out there and just realized it was a shot, it was definitely not for me. It was basically everything I'm not, so I'm a bit of an energetic person, I like to move around, you don't want to be a corporate lawyer because you're going to be chained to your desk.

我还喜欢感觉到我所做的事情能产生某种影响,而你不会想在一家公司从底层做起。所以,基本上,当我坐在巴黎这家大型公司律师事务所里,意识到这并非我真正想做的事情时,我开始思考。

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I also like to feel that I have some form of impact in what I'm doing, you don't want to start at the bottom in a corporate office. So basically, sitting in Paris in this big corporate law firm, realizing that was not exactly what I wanted to do, I started to think a bit.

显然,当你处于这种境地时,你会开始思考自己到底想做什么。我回想起了一个很棒的地方,一个我关注了相当长一段时间的伟大事物——挪威主权财富基金(Sovereign Wealth Fund: 由国家政府拥有和控制的投资基金,通常投资于股票、债券、房地产等资产)。

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Obviously, when you're in this kind of situation, you start to think a bit about what do you actually want to do. And I thought back to this great place, this great thing that I'd followed for quite some time, the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund.

基本上,早在2007年,也就是我读法律第一年的时候,我记得读过一篇精彩的文章,里面提到挪威人民是法国股市最大的投资者之一。

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And basically, back in 2007, so when I was in my first year of law, I remember reading this magnificent article basically saying that, you know, the Norwegian people are one of the biggest investors in the French stock market.

你知道,当你是一个挪威人,读到这些时,你会有点疑惑这怎么可能是真的。然后你再深入阅读一点,就会意识到这个属于我们的、令人惊叹的基金。

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And you know, when you're a Norwegian, you read that, you're a bit like, how can this be true? And then you read a bit further and you realized this amazing fund that is ours.

所以,基本上,当我坐在巴黎时,我想也许他们有适合我的工作,那会很棒。我申请了他们的研究生项目,最终成为第一个被录取的非金融或非工程背景的人。

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And basically, so sitting there in Paris, I was like, maybe they have a job for me, that would be great. Applied to the graduate program, ended up being the first one who was non-finance or non-engineering taken into the program.

他们在打电话给我的时候告诉我了这一点,这有点让人感到“哦,好吧,没有压力”。

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Which they told me when they called me, which was a bit, so you know, when you're being told, oh, we're bringing you out kind of as the first non-finance person, you're a bit like, oh, okay, no pressure there.

我实际上是在2014年加入了挪威银行投资管理公司(NBIM),最初尝试了公司治理(Corporate Governance: 涉及公司管理层、董事会、股东及其他利益相关者之间关系的一套系统,旨在确保公司有效、负责地运营),这在某种程度上与法律颇有关系。

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So started in NBIM in 2014, actually I started in Oslo, and tried a bit of corporate governance, which is quite related to law in a way.

但后来我被调到伦敦的投资部门,负责行业策略,从那时起就一直待在那里。

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But then got moved to sector strategies, the investment side in London, and just have stayed ever since.

我的职业生涯一直在发展,你可以看到我变得越来越重要,希望到最后我能变得举足轻重。基本上,我在2017年晋升为分析师,然后在2020年这个非凡的疫情年份,当我们都居家办公时,我开始管理自己的投资组合(Portfolio: 投资者持有的所有金融资产的集合)。

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So I moved up, you can see I'm getting bigger and bigger, so hopefully towards the end I'm huge. But basically, 2017 went up to analyst, and then in the magnificent COVID year of 2020, when we were sitting at home, I started my portfolio.

那是一段漫长的旅程,一段我仍在继续的旅程。基本上,我每天都充满活力,能够产生影响,能够走出去寻找好的投资机会,所以我仍然热爱这份工作。

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So that's been a long journey, and a journey that I'm still on. And basically every day I jump around and, you know, get to have an impact, get to be energetic, get to go out there and find good investments, so I'm still loving it.

投资经理的日常:市场波动与财报季

我想谈谈一个普通的工作日。基本上,当你与市场打交道时,没有哪一天是真正“正常”的,因为世界本身就不正常。

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I just want to talk a bit about just a normal day, so basically when you're working with markets, no day is really normal because the world isn't normal, right?

你知道,我早上醒来,俄罗斯入侵了乌克兰,那不是一个正常的日子。所以我们有很多不那么正常的日子。

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You know, the morning I woke up and Russia had invaded Ukraine, that was not a normal day. So we have all these days that are a bit un-normal.

但我会说,有些时期比其他时期更相似,这基本上就是公司发布财报(Earnings Reports: 上市公司定期公布其财务业绩的时期,通常每年四次)的时候。

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But I would say there are periods which are more like others, and that's basically when companies report earnings.

公司很可能会每年四次公布财务业绩,而这些公司显然是我投资或未投资的,所以我非常密切地关注它们。这些日子通常非常忙碌。

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So that's basically a company will report financial results four times a year most likely, and those obviously those are companies I'm invested in or not invested in, so I follow them quite closely and these days are quite full-on.

我刚刚结束了全年业绩报告期,从那段时间出来后,我感觉“好吧,现在这是一个正常的工作日了”,我将向你们展示。

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And I've just finished the full year results period, coming out of that I was like, okay, now this is a normal day I'm going to present to you.

所以,这是我在二月份度过的一个大致正常的日子。我早上醒来,这很棒。当公司发布财报时,通常是在市场开盘之前。

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So this is a normal day that I had in February more or less. So I woke up, that's great. When a company reports, it tends to be before market opens.

由于我使用的是伦敦时间,如果是一家欧洲公司,那通常会在早上8点15分之前,大约在6点半到7点左右。

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So since I'm on London time, if it's a European company, that will be before quarter past 8 in the morning, so it'll usually be around 6:30, 7.

所以,当公司发布财报时,你不会去健身房,也不会做晨间瑜伽,你只会半躺在被子里,查看发生了什么。

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So when companies report, you don't go to the gym, you don't do morning yoga, you kind of just get up and you're like half under your duvet looking at what's happening.

他们通常还会举行电话会议,首席执行官(CEO)和首席财务官(CFO)会谈论他们的业绩。所以你通常会听取他们的发言,也许早上7点就在被子里拿出笔记本电脑,试图在你的金融模型(Financial Model: 用于预测公司未来财务表现、评估投资或分析其他财务情况的数学模型)中弄清楚这到底意味着什么。

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They will usually also do a call, so the CEO, the CFO will talk about their results. So usually you would listen to that, listen to what they say, maybe drag out your laptop at 7:00 a.m. in the morning under your duvet, try to figure out in your financial model, company model, what it actually means.

当你完成所有这些之后,你就会去上班。当你上班时,你做的第一件事就是浏览市场,检查是否有与你的投资相关的特殊情况发生。

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At one point, when you've done all this, you actually get yourself to work. And when you go to work, obviously the first thing you do is just browse to just check if something special has happened in markets I should be aware of related to my investments.

当你意识到没有特殊情况发生时,你就会回到财报分析。你还会查看你的投资组合,因为你无法控制自己,你必须看看那天是赚钱还是亏钱。如果上涨,你很高兴;如果下跌,你就不高兴。

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And the moment you realize that's not happening, you go back to your earnings. You also look at your portfolio because you can't control yourself, you have to see if you're making money or not that day. If it's going up, you're happy, if it's going down, you're not happy.

然后你继续工作,因为你正处于财报季中,所以你可能有一个CEO会议,CEO可能正要来你的办公室。你可能已经为此做好了准备,所以你有一个会议,无论是通过Zoom还是面对面。

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And then you continue, you try to continue because you're in the middle of earnings, so you probably have a CEO meeting and the CEO is probably coming into your office. You've probably already prepped it, so you have a meeting either obviously on Zoom or in person.

会议结束后,你回到办公桌,然后是时候在这些会议之间做一些小研究了。所以你很可能会浏览一下,看看你的公司是否又发生了什么事情,是否有我想阅读的研究报告。

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Then done meeting, going back to your desk, and then it's time to do a tiny bit of research in between these meetings. So most likely you will browse, you see if there's again anything's happened to your companies, is there any research reports I want to read?

我还有很多关于我所关注公司的数据仪表板。例如,我负责酒店行业,我会收到酒店的信用卡数据。那么,我是否看到世界不同地区的人们在度假消费方面有任何变化?也许没有。

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I also have a lot of dashboards with data on my companies, so for example, I cover hotels, I get credit card data on hotels, so do I see any change in how much people are spending on holiday in different parts of the world? Maybe not.

你们还在订阅Netflix吗?还在共享密码吗?这些都是我会查看的数据。

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Are you guys still subscribing to Netflix or not? Are you still password sharing or not? That's kind of data I would look at.

然后,显然会有一些内容回到不同的模型中,思考不同的事情。是的,然后在我欧洲工作日的中间,美国市场开盘,然后一切又重新开始。

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And then obviously there will be parts of stuff going back into different kinds of models, thinking about different stuff. Yeah, and then in the middle of my European day, US market's open and then everything turns around again.

在某个时候,你的电量会不足。

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And then at one point you kind of go low on battery.

那将是我和Venicia通过Teams联系,然后说:“嘿,市场太疯狂了,要不要喝杯咖啡?”然后我们就会出去喝杯咖啡。

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And that will be the time where I will Teams Venicia and go like, hey, markets are crazy, do you want a coffee? And then we will pedal off and have a bit of a coffee.

然后,显然我需要回到办公桌,因为今天发布财报的公司很可能明天还会来见我。因为作为几乎所有公司的主要股东,我们与CEO们有大量的会议。

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And then obviously I need to be back to my desk because the company that reported today most likely is coming in again tomorrow to see me. Because obviously as big shareholders of every single company out there, we have an awful lot of meetings with CEOs.

我会准备那个会议,那是我的咖啡时间。然后我会准备会议,你知道,那可能是一家瑞典公司,他们明天早上8点会来我的办公室。今天已经非常忙碌了,所以我也许应该离开那里,和我的朋友一起去上动感单车课。

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So I will prep that meeting, that was my coffee. Then I'll prep the meeting and, you know what, that's probably a Swedish company, so they'll come in 8:00 a.m. tomorrow into my office. And this day has been so full on, so maybe I should just get out of there, go to spinning class with my friend.

投资流程与“投资模拟器”

我想谈谈我所运行的投资流程,以及我们所说的“投资模拟器”(Investment Simulator: 一种软件工具,用于模拟投资决策及其潜在结果,通常基于历史数据和算法)如何融入其中。

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I want to talk a bit about just the investment process I run and kind of how what we call the Investment Simulator fits into that.

屏幕上没有太多表情符号,所以可能有点难理解,但我想谈谈,Venicia也稍微提到了,如果你考虑任何投资过程的开始,它通常始于估值(Valuation: 确定资产、公司或证券内在价值的过程)。

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There's not an awful lot of emojis on the screen, so it's a bit harder maybe to comprehend, but what I want to talk about, and Venicia touched a bit upon it, but if you think about the start of any investment process, it usually starts with valuation.

当我提到估值时,我指的是今天股票的价格是多少,以及与该价格对应的预期价值是多少。这是任何投资的开始。

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And when I say valuation, I mean what's the price of the stock today and what is expected, what's the expected value of that stock that corresponds to that price? And that's the start of any investment.

然后你会想,好吧,那么今天报价的这只股票的价值是否正确?是否有我可以研究或思考的东西,让我认为这家公司实际上价值更多或更少?

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And then you think, okay, so the value of that stock that is quoted today, is that correct? Is there something there that I can research or think about that makes me think that this company is actually worth a lot more or a lot less?

所以,基本上,这就是你开始投资论证构建(Thesis Building: 形成关于某个投资标的是否值得投资的理由和逻辑的过程)的时候,而投资论证构建基本上是研究过程的核心。

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So basically that's when you start kind of thesis building, and thesis building is basically the core of the research process.

这就像我说Netflix的交易价格是450美元,我是否认为它值这个价?我是否真的认为这个密码共享问题对他们来说会非常成功,他们会阻止你们所有人共享,然后赚更多的钱,变得更有价值?也许吧。

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It's me saying Netflix is trading at 450 USD, do I think it's worth that? Do I actually think this whole password thing is actually going to work out really great for them, and they're going to bust all you guys from sharing, and they're going to earn more money, and they're going to be more valuable? Maybe, right?

我如何做到这一点呢?我可以与公司交谈,我可以与专家交谈,也许是以前在Netflix工作过的人,他们可以告诉我相关信息。我甚至可以出去与使用Netflix的人交谈,这实际上很有趣,因为Netflix是每个人都在使用的东西,每个人都可以告诉我最近密码共享问题有多烦人。

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And how I can kind of go about that is I can talk to the company, I can talk to experts, maybe people who worked at Netflix before, who can talk to me about it. I can actually go out and talk to people who use Netflix, that's actually quite a lot of fun because Netflix is something everyone uses and everyone can tell me about how annoying the whole password thing has been lately.

但话又说回来,我也可以理解你不能再共享了,所以他们确实会赚更多的钱。

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But then again, I can also understand that you can't share anymore, so so that actually they will earn more money.

所有这些事情都让我决定它是否值得更多的钱,以及我是否应该购买。假设我决定基于这个密码共享的事情购买Netflix。

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All these things kind of makes me determine whether it is worth more money and I should buy. Say I decide to buy Netflix on the back of this whole password sharing thing.

然后我就进入了我所认为的执行阶段,这也就是我们所说的“投资模拟器”发挥作用的地方。对我来说,执行阶段就是当我把Netflix的4000万(而不是400万)美元的买入指令输入我的交易系统时。

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Then I go into what I would consider execution phase, and that's kind of where what we call the Investment Simulator comes in. So execution phase for me is when I put Stephy biased 40 million of Netflix into my training system.

当我将它输入交易系统时,投资模拟器会积累大量我之前交易方式的数据,所以它有时会反馈给我一些信息,比如“你知道,你以前在交易Netflix方面表现很差”,或者“Netflix的共识数字实际上并没有上升”,或者它会告诉我屏幕上弹出的许多不同信息。

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When I put that into the trading system, the Investment Simulator will have accumulated a lot of data of how I've traded previously, so it will sometimes feed stuff back to me saying, you know, you've been really poor at trading Netflix before, or you know, Netflix consensus number isn't actually going up, or it will tell me lots of different stuff that will pop up on the screen.

这可能是你对我一直试图解释的内容的反应,如果是这样,我只想向你展示投资模拟器或我的交易系统是什么样子的。

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You can this could be your reaction to what I've been trying to explain to you, if it is, I just want to show you what the Investment Simulator or my trading system looks like.

所以基本上,我们有所谓的模拟。顺便说一句,这不是我的投资组合,我不交易任天堂和育碧,但这些将是我投资组合中的公司。

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So basically, we have what we call the simulation, that's this is not my portfolio by the way, I don't trade Nintendo and Ubisoft, but this would be the companies in my portfolio.

我会对它们有不同的权重,然后例如,我会输入交易,我会说“哦,让我们买入我投资组合中3%的PayPal”,那是一家很棒的公司。

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I would have different weights on them, and then for example, I would put in the trade, I would say, oh, let's buy 3% of my portfolio in PayPal, that's great company.

然后在我实际点击买入或卖出之前,我会看到这些信号。这些市场信号,将是投资模拟器从市场中提取的数据。

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And then before I actually click buy or sell, I will get these signals up there, so the market signals, there will be data that the Investment Simulator drags in from markets.

所以它会告诉我是否有高或低的做空兴趣(Short Interest: 已被卖空但尚未平仓的股票数量,是衡量市场对某股票看跌情绪的指标),是否有许多不相信这家公司的投资者一直在做空它?这对我来说是个好信息。

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So it will be, is there a high or low short interest? Is there a lot of investors who don't believe this company, have been shorting it? That's a good thing for me to know.

最好的部分仍然是PM(投资组合经理)信号。Venicia可能已经提到了行为偏差(Biases: 影响投资决策的非理性心理倾向)是整个难题的一部分,这就是它告诉我我有偏差的地方。

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The best part is still the PM signals. Again, Venicia might have touched upon the bias as part of the whole puzzle, this is where it tells me that I have biases.

显然,很难告诉自己有偏差,所以如果数据或机器为你做这件事,那会非常好。

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And obviously it's very hard to tell yourself you have biases, so if data or a machine does it for you, that is quite good.

所以,它又可以告诉我,也许我不太擅长我们所说的偏离基准头寸(Off-Benchmark Positions: 投资组合中与基准指数构成不同的资产配置),如果我不擅长,也许我应该考虑一下。

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So again, it can tell me maybe I'm not particularly good at what we call off-benchmark positions, maybe so if I'm not, maybe I should think about that.

也许我特别擅长大额订单或小额订单。也许我特别擅长在与公司开会后购买它们的股票,这是我们可以获得的数据,因为他们显然知道我何时开会,并且知道我在会议后是卖出还是买入。

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Maybe I'm particularly good at big orders, small orders. Maybe I'm particularly good at buying companies when I've had a meeting with them, which is data we can get because obviously they know when I've had a meeting and they know if I sold or bought after that meeting.

再次强调,如果这让你感到困惑,我完全可以理解,因为这看起来非常复杂,而且我使用了大量的金融术语。非常欢迎你来找我,我们可以聊聊。谢谢。

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Again, if this makes no sense to you, which I could totally understand because this looks very confusing and I have tons of financial words up there, you're very welcome to come and find me and we can have a chat about it. Thank you.

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