“修复此代码”引爆全球停服:Claude 2026禁令背后的技术、政商与地缘政治博弈 House of El - AI 2026-06-18

三字指令引发全球停服

只需三个单词——“修复此代码”(fix this code),就足以让美国政府下令,在全球范围内向所有用户停用地球上最强大的 AI 模型。为了让你对这个速度有个直观的概念:让一家电信公司修复一个路由错误通常需要大约四周时间、打六个电话,还要向远古诸神献祭;然而,只要在聊天机器人中输入三个单词,五角大楼就会陷入极度恐慌,以至于他们不小心为所有人“删除了互联网”。

2026年6月12日,周五下午5点21分——这正是地球上每个 IT 专业人员都急于合上电脑、逃离工作直到周一的黄金时间——Anthropic 收到了一份来自美国政府的指令,命令其立即在全球范围内向所有用户(不仅是美国,而是全球每个角落)禁用其两款最先进的 AI 模型:Claude Fable 5Claude Mythos 5。官方给出的理由是基于国家安全的出口管制行动。根据多方报道以及 Anthropic 自己的叙述,底层的触发点是一个越狱(Jailbreak: 绕过安全护栏以使模型执行受限任务的提示词技术)。而这个所谓的越狱,仅仅是让模型去“修复一些代码”。这真是一件“网络毁灭性武器”:基础软件维护。在本文中,我将解释 Mythos 和 Fable 究竟是什么,什么是越狱,为什么这一次越狱如此重要,以及亚马逊(Amazon)在其中扮演了什么角色(这部分极具戏剧性)。接着,我将探讨其背后的政治背景,因为脱离了背景,这个故事就说不通了。最后,我希望大家能认真讨论一下当前 AI 领域真正应该关注的问题,因为我认为大量的精力和注意力都被浪费在了那些无关紧要的事情上,而忽视了眼前真正迫在眉睫的危机。我是 L,一名计算机科学博士,我致力于分析 AI 的最新发展,带大家看清炒作背后的真相。

Original English

Three words, fix this code. That is what it took for the United States government to order the most powerful AI model on Earth pulled from every user on the planet. Just to put that into perspective, it takes approximately 4 weeks, six phone calls, and a sacrifice to the old gods to get a telecom company to fix a rooting error. But type three words into a chatbot, and the Pentagon panics so hard they accidentally delete the internet for everyone. On June 12th, 2026 at 5:21 p.m. on a Friday, the exact universal time when every IT professional on Earth is actively trying to close their laptop and disassociate until Monday, Anthropic received a directive from the US government, ordering it to immediately disable two of its most advanced AI models, Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5, for all users worldwide, not just in the US, everywhere. The stated reason was an expert control action citing national security. The underlying trigger according to multiple reports and Anthropic's own account was a jailbreak which is a way of getting the model to do something guard rails were supposed to prevent and that jailbreak consisted of asking the model to fix some code. Truly a cyber weapon of mass destruction: basic software maintenance. In this video I'm going to explain what mythos and fable actually are, what a jailbreak is, why this particular one matters so much, and what Amazon's role in all of this was, because that part is deeply interesting. Then I want to talk through the political context because without it, this story doesn't make a lot of sense. And then I want us all to have a serious conversation about what should actually be happening with AI right now because I think a significant amount of effort and attention is being directed at things that matter considerably less than the problems staring everyone in the face. My name is L. I have a PhD in computer science and I analyze AI developments to understand what's actually happening beneath the hype. If you find this analysis useful, please give this video a like and subscribe. And the best way to support this work and keep it free and without any gatekeeping is through Kofi or a channel membership. The links to everything are down below.

尖端防御模型的技术内幕

让我们先从这两款模型的背景说起,因为技术背景至关重要。作为 Claude 系统的开发商,Anthropic 一直在与 OpenAIChatGPT 以及 GoogleGemini 展开激烈竞争。在2026年4月,Anthropic 预发布了一款名为 Claude Mythos 5 的模型。根据官方描述,该模型在发现软件安全漏洞方面拥有极强能力。在内部测试中,它成功找出了所测试的每一个主流操作系统和网页浏览器的安全缺陷。它是首个成功通过 英国AI安全研究所(UK AI Security Institute: 评估人工智能系统黑客攻击能力的国家级安全机构)全部两套网络安全评估测试的 AI 模型。它能够自主发现并串联多个漏洞,这在本质上相当于在没有人类干预的情况下,独立编排完整的网络攻击流程。简单来说,它就像是美剧《黑客军团》中的主角埃利奥特(Mr. Robot),但它没有情感包袱,而且能在两秒钟内处理完请求。

值得赞赏的是,Anthropic 并没有向公众公开发布 Mythos 5。相反,它通过一项名为 Project Glasswing 的合作计划限制了访问权限,仅与包括亚马逊(Amazon)、苹果(Apple)、谷歌(Google)、微软(Microsoft)和 CrowdStrike 在内的约50家经过严格审查的机构共享,且仅用于防御性网络安全研究。因为众所周知,万亿级科技巨头得到这种神级工具后,肯定只会出于纯真善良的防御性目的去使用它,对吧?就像“死星”也只是一个局部行星热力加温实验一样。信任万亿级科技垄断企业并指望它们只将黑客工具用于防御,就像把一只浣熊放进面包店当保安,并在它吃光所有牛角面包时感到惊讶。随后在2026年6月9日,Anthropic 推出了 Claude Fable 5。它本质上就是加了安全护栏的 Mythos 5。这些安全护栏(Guardrails: 限制模型输出危险或违规内容的内置规则系统)旨在封锁该模型最危险的能力(特别是在网络安全和生物领域),同时保留其通用智能以供日常使用。Fable 5 一经发布,便被评估为公众可用的最强大 AI 模型。然而,根据 Val AI 的测试,它在被下令停服前仅仅存活了三天。

Original English

Now, let's start with what these models actually are because the technical context matters. As always, I am a firm firm believer that anyone can understand anything given the right context and the right explanation. This is a jargon-free zone to the best of my ability. And if I do accidentally slip up and say I en vector, please feel free to penalize me in the comments with your favorite aggressively mid emoji. Anthropic is the company behind Claude, the AI system that competes with OpenAI's Chad GPT and Google's Gemini. In April 2026, Anthropic previewed a model called Mythus. Mythus was, by Anthropic's own description, exceptionally capable at finding security vulnerabilities in software. During internal testing, it identified flaws in every major operating system and web browser it was tested against. It was the first AI model to successfully complete both cyber security test ranges used by the UK AI security institute to evaluate the hacking capabilities of AI systems. It could autonomously find and chain multiple vulnerabilities together, which is essentially orchestrating entire attack sequences without human intervention. Basically, it was Mr. Robot. If Mr. The robot didn't have emotional baggage and process requests in under two seconds. Anthropic, to its credit, did not release Mythos publicly. It restricted access through a program called Project Glasswing, sharing it with roughly 50 vetted organizations including Amazon, Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Crowd Strike exclusively for defensive cyber security work. Because if there is one thing we know about massive tech conglomerates is that they only ever use godlike power for pure wholesome defensive reasons, right? And the Death Star was just a localized thermal planetary heating experiment. Trusting a trillion dollar tech monopoly with a god mode hacking tool and asking them to only use it defensively is like putting a raccoon in charge of guarding the bakery and being shocked when it eats all of the croissants. Then on June 9th, Anthropic released Fable 5, essentially Mythos, but with guardrails. The guardrails were designed to block the model's most dangerous capabilities, particularly in cyber security and biology, while preserving its general intelligence for everyday use. Fable immediately benchmarked as the most capable AI model available to the public. According to testing by Val AI, it was live for 3 days.

越狱漏洞与“双重用途”困境

究竟什么是越狱?简单来说,当 AI 公司向公众发布模型时,会添加一层层指令规则(即安全护栏),告诉模型什么该做,什么不该做:不要协助制造武器、不要提供非法活动指令、不要生成网络安全漏洞利用代码、不要生成不当照片——这些人类文明的核心支柱。这些安全护栏是通过训练模型拒绝特定请求,以及通过独立的分类器系统监测输出,在危险响应到达用户前将其拦截来实现的。在这种背景下,越狱就是一种特殊的提示词设计,能诱导模型绕过这些安全防线,输出它本应拒绝的内容。每一个前沿 AI 模型都存在越狱漏洞,每家公司都在应对它们。这本身是业界常态:发现漏洞,打上补丁,然后新的漏洞又被发现。

然而,政府仅仅因为一个越狱漏洞就全球封杀一款模型,这绝对是不寻常的。这就像因为有人发现可以用车载点烟器烤芝士三明治,就召回地球上的每一辆汽车一样荒谬。这次的具体越狱指令是由亚马逊的研究人员发现的。他们向 Fable 5 输入了含有已知安全漏洞的软件代码。当他们要求模型“分析该代码的安全问题”时,模型拒绝了,因为安全护栏拦截了这一请求。但当他们换了三个单词——“修复此代码”(fix this code)时,模型毫不犹豫地执行了。它看到了一段混乱的脚本,立刻进入了“过度表现的实习生”模式。因为修复代码的前提是先找出代码错在哪里,模型必须先识别出漏洞,才能生成修补程序。随后,研究人员可以通过手动过程,将这些修补方案反向转化为可用于攻击该漏洞的脚本。因此,“分析此代码”与“修复此代码”这三字之差,就决定了请求是被拦截还是被执行。

在这个案例中,模型被训练为拒绝显式的安全漏洞分析,但它没有——也几乎不可能——被训练为拒绝“修复代码”。因为修复代码是大语言模型(Large Language Model: 基于海量文本训练的 AI 系统)最常见、也最具有商业价值的功能之一。如果强行限制,你必须教导模型“帮助开发者修复 Bug 是危险的”——但这显然不合理,除非提问者打算将识别出的漏洞用于恶意攻击,而模型根本无法预知用户的意图。这在数字世界中无异于因为有人可能用锤子砸碎打印机(老实说,每个拥有打印机的人都曾强烈考虑过这么做)而全面禁止锤子。

这就是计算机科学家所说的双重用途问题(Dual-Use Problem: 既可用于防御又可用于攻击的技术属性)。它并非 AI 独有:在核物理中,用于发电的铀浓缩过程同样可以用来制造炸弹;在生物技术中,帮助开发疫苗的功能获得性研究(Gain-of-Function Research: 通过改造生物体以增强其某种生物学功能的研究)在理论上也能用来合成病原体;现在,它出现在了网络安全 AI 领域。任何能够帮助防御者发现并修复漏洞的能力,同样能帮助攻击者发现并利用它。两者无法割裂,因为对 AI 模型来说,它们是完全相同的认知运算。AI 无法读取你的气场来判断你手里拿的是白旗还是黑面罩。

顺便说一句,“修复此代码”的越狱并非设计上的失误,而是网络安全 AI 自身所固有的结构属性。Luta Security 的创始人、前微软网络安全专家及两届政府网络安全顾问 Katy Moussouris 受 Anthropic 委托评估了亚马逊的研究。她的评估直截了当:越狱是真实存在的,而且非常简单,根本无法从根本上被修复;任何强行修复的尝试,都只会削弱该模型在防御端的实用性。她指出,防御人员需要能够让 AI 修复文件中的 Bug、解释修复原因并编写测试以验证修补程序是否奏效。否则,我们就是在要求网络安全专业人员在对抗老练的国家级黑客时,手里只有拨号上网连接和直觉。对防御安全来说,修复代码正是 AI 模型能提供的最大价值。

Original English

Now, what is a jailbreak? Very quickly for nontechnical viewers, here is how it works. When an AI company releases a model to the public, it adds layers of instruction, also called guardrails, telling the model what it should and shouldn't do. Don't help with making weapons. Don't provide instructions for illegal activity. Don't generate cyber security exploits. Don't generate any inappropriate photos. You know, the core pillars of human civilization. These guardrails are implemented through a combination of training the model to refuse certain requests and through separate classifier systems that monitor outputs and block dangerous responses before they reach the user. Now, with that in mind, a jailbreak is a prompt, which is a specific way of asking the question that gets the model to bypass these guard rails and produce output it was supposed to refuse. Every frontier AI model has jailbreaks. Every company deals with them. They are discovered, patched, and new ones are found. It is an ongoing process that every AI lab in the world manages continuously. This is a normal thing. What is not normal is the government pulling a model from every user on Earth because of one. That's like recalling every car on the planet because someone figured out you can use the cigarette lighter to burn a grilled cheese sandwich. The specific jailbreak we're talking about was discovered by researchers at Amazon. They gave Fable software code with known vulnerabilities. When they asked the model to review the code for security issues, it refused because the guard rails caught it. But when they asked it to fix this code, it complied. The AI didn't even hesitate. It saw a messy script and went full overachieving intern mode. Because fixing code requires identifying what is wrong with it first. The model had to find the vulnerabilities in order to generate the patch. A researcher could then through a manual process turn the fixes into scripts that could potentially be used to exploit the very flaws the model had identified. So three words, the difference between review this code and fix this code is the difference between a blocked request and a compliant one. In this case, the model was trained to refuse explicit security analysis, but it was not and arguably cannot be trained to refuse fixing code because fixing code is one of the most common and valuable things an AI LLM model can do. You would have to teach the model that helping a developer fix a bug is dangerous, which it isn't, unless the person asking intends to use the identified flaw offensively. And the model has no way to know that. It is the digital equivalent of banning hammers because somebody might use one to smash your printer which to be fair anyone who has ever owned a printer has strongly considered. This is what computer scientists call the dual use problem and it is not unique to AI. It exists in nuclear physics. The same enrichment process that powers a reactor powers a bomb as well. It exists in biotechnology. the same gain of function research that helps develop vaccines could theoretically help engineer a pathogen and now it exists in cyber security AI. Any capability that helps a defender find and fix a vulnerability also helps an attacker find and exploit it. You cannot separate the two because they are the same cognitive operation for the AI model. It turns out the AI cannot read your aura to see if you're carrying a white flag or a black mask. The fix this code jailbreak is not a design failure by the way. It is a structural property of what cyber security AI does. Katy Massurus the founder of Luta security a former Microsoft cyber security expert and someone who has held two government advisory roles on cyber security was asked by anthropic to review Amazon's research. Her assessment was of course blunt. The jailbreak was real. It was also simple and it cannot meaningfully be fixed and any attempt would only weaken the model for defense. She wrote that defenders need to be able to ask AI to fix bugs in a file, explain why the fix matters, and write tests that confirm the patch works. Otherwise, we're just asking cyber security professionals to fight sophisticated nation state hackers using nothing but a dialup connection and vibes. It is the most valuable thing an AI model can do for defensive security.

物理法案规管数字世界的荒谬代价

我们需要了解一下接下来发生的监管机制,这对于理解为什么这次停服如此彻底至关重要。美国政府的指令是以限制外籍人员访问的出口管制(Export Control: 限制特定敏感技术、设备或软件向境外或特定外籍人员转移的法律框架)形式下达的。但根据美国出口管制的规定,向任何非美国公民传播受限技术都将被视为“出口”,即便该人员人就位于美国境内。这意味着,连 Anthropic 自己的外籍员工都不能使用或开发这些模型。在服务数亿用户的全球平台上,根本没有办法实时根据国籍状态来过滤用户。因此,Anthropic 别无选择,只能对所有人停用这两款模型。

这种把几十年前针对物理武器和核材料设计的出口管制框架,套用到部署给全球数亿用户的软件上的做法,其结构上的荒谬性不言而喻。我们竟然在用针对物理放射性钚元素的法律,来监管一个数字文本框。下一步是什么?难道我们在使用 Stack Overflow 查代码之前,还要先接受美国能源部的背景审查吗?

Katy Moussouris 还指出,Fable 5 的内置安全护栏其实非常严格,甚至在发布当天就成了网络安全社区调侃的笑料。网络安全专业人员发现,该模型甚至拦截了大量合法的防御性研究。在她的博客文章中,Moussouris 建议反对这项管制的人应该印制文化衫,正面写“修复此代码”,背面写“这件衣服是军火”。当然,这保证能让你在机场安检线多花三个小时,与安检人员来一次亲密接触。

在由来自 NvidiaAdobeZoomGoogle 等公司的100多位网络安全专业人员联名签署的“释放 Fable”(Free Fable)公开信中,专家们提出了进一步的质疑:这种代码审查和修复能力并不是 Fable 5 独有的。OpenAI 的 GPT-5.5、Anthropic 的其他模型,以及包括月之暗面(Moonshot AI)的 Kimi 2.7 在内的中国 AI 模型,同样能进行类似的代码审查。政府声称封杀 Fable 5 是因为其提供了超越其他模型的“独特能力提升”,这一说法在事实面前根本站不足脚。联名信警告称,在对手能力不断提升的同时,强行剥夺网络安全专业人员手中最优秀的防御工具,是极其危险的举动。

Original English

Just a note on the mechanics of what happened next because this is important for understanding why the shutdown was so total. The government's directive was framed as an export control restricting access by foreign nationals. But US export controls work in a way that distribution of restricted technology to any non-citizen is deemed to be an export even if that person is physically located in the United States. This meant that Anthropic's own non-citizen employees would not be allowed to use or work on the models. There is no way to filter users by citizenship status in real time across a global platform serving hundreds of millions of people. So, Anthropic had to disable the models for everyone. The expert control framework designed decades ago, by the way, for physical weapons and nuclear material was applied to software deployed to hundreds of millions of users globally. The structural absurdity of using a cold war regulatory instrument to recall a chatbot update should not be lost on anyone. We are literally using laws written for physical plutonium to regulate a digital text box. What's next? requiring a background check from the Department of Energy before you can use Stack Overflow. Misurus also noted that Fable's guard rails were so aggressive that they were the source of humor in the cyber community on launch day. Cyber security professionals found the model was blocking legitimate defensive research. The guardrails were if anything too strict. In her blog post, Missouri suggested that opponents of the expert control should print t-shirts with fix this code on the front and this shirt is ammunition on the back, which is a great way to guarantee you spend an extra 3 hours in the TSA security line getting intimately acquainted with airport security. The parallels between that era and this one are just not subtle at all. In the free fable open letter signed by over a 100 cyber security professionals from Nvidia, Adobe, Zoom, Google, and others made a further point. This capability is not unique to Fable. Open AI's GPT 5.5, Antropic's own other cloud models, and Chinese models including Moonshot AI's Kimmy 2.7 can all perform similar code reviews. The stated justification for pulling fable that it provides a unique uplift beyond other models does not hold against the evidence. The letter warns that pulling the best defensive tools from cyber security professionals while adversaries capabilities advance is dangerous.

政治博弈与商业背叛的深水区

然而,这个故事的性质很快就超越了单纯的越狱漏洞,暴露出背后更深层的政治与商业算计。在2026年2月,五角大楼曾要求 Anthropic 允许其 AI 技术被用于“所有合法目的”,这其中明确包括完全自主武器(Fully Autonomous Weapons: 无需人类干预即可独立选择并攻击目标的武器系统)和大规模国内监视。对此,Anthropic 首席执行官 Dario Amodei 予以公开拒绝。他表示,出于职业良知,Anthropic 绝不能妥协,因为当前的 AI 技术在安全性和可靠性上,根本无法承载自主武器与大规模监视的重任。而五角大楼负责研究与工程的副部长 Emil Michael 则直接在社交媒体平台 X 上公开回击,指责 Amodei 是一个“拥有上帝情结的骗子”,一心只想将美国军事力量置于其个人的控制之下——没有什么能比国家安全高官在公开平台上“歇斯底里”,更能体现出所谓的成熟国家安全讨论了。

紧接着在2月27日,特朗普总统下令所有联邦机构立即停止使用 Anthropic 的技术。五角大楼更是将 Anthropic 列为供应链风险(Supply Chain Risk: 评估软硬件产品在设计、制造和分发过程中遭受恶意篡改或控制的可能性分类)。仅仅几天后,OpenAI 就高调宣布与五角大楼达成合作协议。Sam Altman 迅速将 OpenAI 塑造成了那个“听话的合作者”。Altman 几乎是抱着一盘饼干冲进五角大楼,大喊着“只要能选我,你们让我干什么都行”。他事后还讥讽 Anthropic 披露 Mythos 5 漏洞的做法是“基于恐惧的营销”(fear-based marketing),声称:“这真是天才的营销手段——‘看啊,我们造了一个炸弹,刚刚差点砸在你们头上,不过现在我们愿意以1亿美元的价格卖给你们一个防空洞。’”这显得极具讽刺意图,因为 Sam Altman 自己所塑造的品牌形象,在本质上就是“我们正在构建一个可能会毁灭人类的科幻之神,所以请再给我们投800亿美元”。

三个月后,正是这个特朗普政府,下达了对 Anthropic 模型的全球停服令。而这次的越狱指令,恰恰是由亚马逊发现并上报的——亚马逊既是 Anthropic 的最大投资者,同时又是其在云服务平台 BedrockTitan AI 业务上的直接竞争对手。有了这样的投资人,谁还需要商业间谍呢?亚马逊直接向白宫“告发”了自己投资的组合公司。亚马逊首席执行官 Andy Jassy 甚至没有发一条委婉的 Slack 消息,而是直接走进了白宫总统办公室。这已经不仅仅是利益冲突了,这简直是教科书级的商业背叛。亚马逊一边为棋局提供资金、制定规则,一边还在场外扮演3D棋手,甚至在自己棋子跑得太快时打电话叫裁判来给它红牌。他亲自向白宫告了密。随后,政府停服指令在周五下午5点21分准时送达——这正是历史上政府发布那些不希望引起公众过多注意的消息时,最钟爱的“垃圾时间”。据 Axios 报道,政府之所以如此愤怒,还因为 Anthropic 聘请了一位被白宫视为“激进民主党人”的网络安全专家来审查该越狱,并且前美国大选安全官员 Chris Krebs(于2020年被特朗普开除)也公开为该专家的分析背书。

我们需要非常谨慎地看待这些线索。虽然我无法获知政府决策的内部机密,网络安全也确实是个合理的议题,但其中的博弈模式已经昭然若揭:一家公司拒绝配合自主武器的研发,随后被政府拉黑并剥夺合同;其竞争对手迅速顺从并拿下了大单;随后这家公司发布了其最强大的模型,却立刻在周五晚上被政府下令召回,而引爆这一制裁的“研究报告”竟然来自其自身的投资人兼竞争对手。

从商业角度来看,这个时机更是致命的。Anthropic 当时刚刚提交了估值高达 9650亿美元 的机密 首次公开募股(Initial Public Offering: 公司首次向社会公众公开招股的发行方式)招股书。在公司即将上市的前几天,旗舰模型被政府下令全球停服,这无疑是灾难性的打击。这使得招股书的主题瞬间从“我们正在重塑人类智能的未来”变成了“请大家忽略我们周五下午被强行终止业务的惨状”。对投资者来说,没有什么能比国防部将你的软件更新当成违禁品走私来查处,更让人对“长期稳定投资”丧失信心的了。照这个趋势发展,Anthropic 下一轮融资的谈判地点可能不是在硅谷的会议室,而是在某个未公开的地下暗堡里,通过敲击暗号来进行。

Anthropic 对此给出的官方声明也异乎寻常地强硬:“我们不认为仅仅因为发现了一个局限性的越狱可能,就应该召回一款服务数亿用户的商用模型。如果这一标准被推广到全行业,我们相信所有前沿模型提供商的新模型部署工作都将被迫中止。”这无异于公开指责政府的决策逻辑如果贯彻下去,将彻底毁掉整个 AI 产业。对于一个将自由市场原则奉为立国之本的国家来说,这看起来完全不像是自由市场的作风,而更像是一场“顺从者得赏,独立者受罚”的权力游戏。

Original English

Now, here is where the story stops being about a jailbreak and starts being about something else entirely. In February 2026, the Pentagon demanded that Anthropic allow its AI to be used for all lawful purposes, including fully autonomous weapons and mass domestic surveillance. Anthropic CEO Daria Amadei publicly refused. He said Anthropic cannot in good conscious exceed their request. He stated that autonomous weapons and mass surveillance are simply outside the bounds of what today's technology can safely and reliably do. The Pentagon's under secretary for research and engineering, Emil Michael, responded on X by calling Amadei a liar with a god complex who wants nothing more than to try to personally control the US military because nothing says mature national security discourse quite like highranking defense officials having an absolute public meltdown on X. On February 27th, President Trump ordered all federal agencies to immediately stop using anthropics technology. The Pentagon designated Antropic a supply chain risk, which is a classification normally reserved for companies with ties to foreign adversaries. And within days, Open AI announced a Pentagon deal. Sam Alman positioned Open AI as the cooperative alternative. Sam Alman basically sprinted to the Pentagon with a tray of cookies screaming, "I'll let you do whatever you want. Please pick me." He later described Antropic's handling of myths as fear-based marketing, saying, I'm quoting, "It is clearly incredible marketing to say, "We have built a bomb. We were about to drop it on your head. We will sell you a bomb shelter for $100 million." Which is ironic because Sam Alman's entire brand is literally, "We are building a sci-fi god that might destroy humanity. Please give us another $80 billion." And now 3 months later, that same administration has ordered Anthropics models pulled. The jailbreak was found by Amazon, which is simultaneously Anthropic's largest investor and a competitor, via its own bedrock and Titan AI platforms. With investors like these, who needs corporate espionage, right? Amazon literally snitched on its own portfolio company. The CEO, Andy Jasse, didn't even drop a polite Slack message. He went straight to the Oval Office. This is not just a conflict of interest at this point. That is successional levels of corporate betrayal. Amazon is out here playing 3D chess while funding the board, writing the rules, and calling the referee to report their own pieces for moving too fast. He personally called the White House about it. The directive arrived at 5:21 p.m. on a Friday. The time slot historically favored for announcements you'd rather people didn't pay too much attention to. And Axius reported that the administration was further inflamed because Entropic asked a cyber security expert to review the jailbreak whom they viewed as a radical Democrat and because Chris Krebs, the election security official Trump fired in 2020, vouched for her analysis. I want to be very careful about drawing conclusions here. I don't have inside knowledge of the government's reasoning, and I recognize that cyber security is a legitimate concern, but I can observe a pattern. A company refuses to allow its AI to be used for autonomous weapons. That company is banned from government contracts. That company's competitor gets the deal. That company then releases its most powerful model. That model is being pulled by the same administration triggered by research from the company's own investor competitor on a Friday evening. The timing is also worth noting from a commercial context. Anthropic had filed a confidential IPO perspectus worth a reported valuation of around $965 billion. Having your flagship model pulled by the government days before going public is not exactly helpful timing. That is a catastrophic vibe check for your valuation. Your IPO perspectives goes from we are reshaping the future of human intellect to please don't look at our Friday afternoon regulatory execution. Nothing says stable long-term investment quite like the Department of Defense treating your software update like a literal shipment of contraband. At this rate, Antropic's next funding round isn't going to be pitched in Silicon Valley boardrooms. It's going to be negotiated in some undisclosed underground bunker using coded knocks. Anthropic's own response was unusually direct for a company in its position: "We disagree that the finding of a narrow potential jailbreak should be the cost for recalling a commercial model deployed to hundreds of millions of people. If this standard was applied across the industry, we believe it would essentially halt all new model deployments for all frontier model providers." That is a company saying in public that the government's logic, if applied consistently, will shut down the entire AI industry. And they have a point for a country that treats free market principles as a founding value. This does not feel like a lot of free market. It feels like a sequence of events that rewards cooperation and punishes independence.

监管优先级错置下的真实危机

在自主武器问题上,我想明确表达我个人的立场:我完全赞成 Dario Amodei 的观点。不能允许自主武器存在。只有上帝或天意才有权决定人的生死。我们人类即便是所谓的地球最高等物种,也绝无剥夺另一个生命生存权力的资格。这并非技术能力的限制,而是一个不可逾越的道德原则。

这里面还存在着一个极其讽刺的事实,值得我们每个人深思,因为它关系到未来所有愿意主动披露安全漏洞的 AI 公司。在所有业界眼中,Anthropic 几乎是向世界公开披露其技术潜在风险最透明、最负责任的一家企业。他们主动警示世界 Mythos 5 能够轻易攻破任何主流操作系统与浏览器;他们主动封锁该模型以防滥用,并设立 Project Glasswing 以确保只有受信任机构才能访问它;随后又大费周章地开发了 Fable 5,只为给公众提供安全的通用智能。然而,讽刺的是,恰恰是这种坦诚与公开,成为了政府制裁和全球停服的直接导火索。正如媒体 TechCrunch 所言:“Anthropic 限制 Mythos 5 时所展现的极度谨慎,最终反而招致了可能彻底摧毁其业务的政府严密审查。”

此前一直指责这套安全举措是“恐惧营销”的 Sam Altman,此刻想必正带着得意的笑容冷眼旁观。负责任、守规矩的企业反遭惩罚,而这给其他所有 AI 公司树立了一个极坏的榜样:如果你发现了任何重大危险,最好闭口不谈。这个教训只会让我们所有人都变得更加不安全,它与优秀的 AI 治理应该鼓励的方向完全背道而驰。

不过在结束之前,我想谈谈比政治博弈更让我担忧的问题。在过去几周里,我一直在关注那些真正改变普通人生活的 AI 危机:AI 正在从根本上塑造人类大脑处理信息的方式,研究表明开发中的年轻一代大脑如果习惯将认知能力外包给机器,可能将永远无法自主建立起这些基本的认知技能;许多城市开始抵制和禁止建立数据中心,因为支付高昂基础设施和生态代价的社区,根本不是享受 AI 收益的社区;今年短短五个月内,已有142,000人因 AI 浪潮失去工作,而解雇他们的企业却创下了历史最高利润记录;企业部署 AI 的成本正如无底洞般飙升,至今没有人算明白这里的商业模式和经济账;许多市民用垃圾袋套住街头的监控摄像头,因为连城市管理者自己都不知道该如何关闭它们。

甚至我们每天都在用的全球最流行搜索引擎,如今也围绕着 AI 进行了重塑,而这款 AI 每小时要犯下高达 5700 万次错误。但嘿!至少它能用极其自信的语气,建议你在比萨酱里添加无毒胶水,来防止芝士滑落。

这些才是真正燃起熊熊烈火的民生危机。这些才是影响着数百万人日常生活、塑造着孩子们的大脑发育、决定着社区生态、就业、乃至隐私权的切身痛点。相比之下,美国政府却把宝贵的政治资源、资金和精力,浪费在一个仅凭三个单词就能触发的越狱漏洞上——而上百位网络安全专家已经明确指出,这个漏洞既不独特,也无法从技术上被根本消除,强行召回甚至会反过来损害防御者的安全。

我不是说越狱漏洞不重要,也不是说网络安全不关键。但这就像是一栋摩天大楼已经在熊熊燃烧,而消防监管部门却在花几个小时细细讨论旁边餐厅修改菜单的排版问题。“是的,法官大入,我知道这栋楼正在坍塌,但这个 AI 刚刚给了别人一段未优化的 Python 脚本,所以我们必须立刻冻结全球商业活动!”我们究竟该如何应对这样的荒谬逻辑?

这种监管优先级的错置,完全偏离了问题的实际规模。当我们顺着这荒诞的一幕看下去,看看谁才是这一决策的受益者:谁拿到了五角大楼的军工合同?谁成功下架了竞争对手的模型?谁又能毫无阻力地顺利进行 IPO?这幅画面就很难再被看作是一次单纯的国家安全决策,而更像是一场深谋远虑的商业狙击。

政策制定者应该把他们的时间用在决定 AI 究竟会给数十亿人的现实生活带来福祉还是灾难的那些实打实的核心要素上:认知冲击、监控网络、岗位流失、企业成本危机以及数据中心带来的生态反噬。人类眼前面临的切实危机已经够多了(顺便提一句,还包括日益严重的气候危机,我绝没有轻视它的意思)。监管者的目光在错误的方向停留得越久,现实世界中的那些大火就会蔓延得越快。

然而,Anthropic 的遭遇仅仅是这幅巨大画卷中的冰山一角。那家拿到了五角大楼合同、其首席执行官曾公开嘲笑 Anthropic 披露安全行为透明度的 OpenAI,如今每挣一美元就要亏损1.22美元,同时还在积极筹备一万亿美元估值的超级 IPO。在每一笔交易上都在不断亏本,却指望能拿到万亿美元的估值——这绝对是科技金融界最伟大的魔术。显然,这套逻辑非常神奇。我会在下期视频中详细拆解 OpenAI 的财务运作,它与我们今天聊到的停服事件有着千丝万缕的联系。那将是下一期不容错过的精彩内容。非常感谢大家的收看,我们下期再见。

Original English

And on the autonomous weapons point, I want to state clearly where I personally stand. I agree fully with Daria Made on this one. No autonomous weapons, only God or circumstance should be making decisions about who lives or who dies. Not even us humans, allegedly the most developed species, should have the right to decide on the continuation of another creature's lives. This is not a technological limitation. It is a moral principle and it should not be controversial to say this. There is also an irony here that I think is worth sitting with because it has implications for every AI company that will ever make a safety disclosure. Anthropic was by most accounts the most transparent AI company about the dangers of its own technology. They said it. It told the world that Mythus could find vulnerabilities in every major OS and browser. It restricted the model rather than releasing it. It created Project Glasswing specifically to ensure only vetted organizations could access it. And then it built Fable with guardrail specifically designed to prevent the cyber security capabilities from being misused publicly. That transparency was used as the justification for shutting them down. As TechCrunch put it, the very caution Anthropic displayed in restricting mythos, has now apparently attracted exactly the kind of government scrutiny that could disrupt its business most. Sam Alman, who spent months calling this fear-based marketing, must be watching with considerable satisfaction. I bet he told the world Antropic was exaggerating. The government heard Antropic's own warnings and decided they were telling the truth. The responsible company got punished. The lesson basically for every other AI company is if you find something dangerous, be quiet about it. That lesson makes everyone less safe. All of us. And it is exactly the opposite of what good AI governance should incentivize. But I want to end this video with something that's been on my mind throughout all of this research because I think it matters a lot more than the politics. This channel has spent the past several weeks covering what I believe are the most important stories in AI right now. AI is measurably changing how human brains process information and the research suggests developing minds may never build cognitive abilities they outsource to machines. Cities are banning data centers because the communities paying for AI infrastructure are not the communities benefiting from it. 142,000 people lost their jobs in 5 months this year while the companies that fire them posted record revenue. Enterprise AI cost are spiraling and nobody has figured out how to make the economics work. Surveillance cameras are being covered with bin bags because cities cannot figure out how to turn them off. The most popular search engine on Earth was redesigned around AI that gets it wrong 57 million times per hour. But hey, at least it confidently tells you to add non-toxic glue to your pizza sauce to keep the cheese from sliding off. Those are the real fires. Those are the problems that affect millions of people right now in ways that shape their lives, their children's cognitive development, their communities, their employment, their privacy. And the US government is spending its political energy and capital on a three-word jailbreak that a 100 cyber security experts say is not unique, is not fixable, and whose removal actively harms defensive security. I am not saying jailbreaks do not matter. I am not saying cyber security is unimportant, but there is a skyscraper burning down and what appears to be happening is a detailed complaint about the local restaurant changing the menu. Yes, I know the building is collapsing, your honor, but the AI just gave somebody an unoptimized Python script, so we must freeze global commerce immediately. How will we ever cope? The priorities do not match the scale of the problems. And when you look at who benefits from those misplaced priorities, who gets the Pentagon contracts, who gets their competitor's model pulled, who gets to IPO without interference, the picture becomes harder to read as a straightforward national security decision and easier to read as something considerably more strategic. I think the people making these decisions should be spending their time on the things that will actually determine whether AI makes the world better or worse for the billions of people now living with it. the cognitive impacts, the surveillance infrastructure, the job displacement, the enterprise cost crisis, the data center backlash, the communities being affected. We have no shortage of nonsense happening to humanity right now. Those are the issues where political energy and regulatory attention could make a genuine difference. A three-word jailbreak on a model that a 100 cyber security experts say is no more capable than its competitors doesn't really feel like an emergency to me. The emergency is everything else, including the climate crisis, by the way. I'm not minimizing that. And the longer the attention stays in the wrong place, the more time the actual fires have to spread. But Anthropic's troubles are only one part of a much broader picture. Open AAI, the company that got the Pentagon deal, the company whose CEO mocked Antropics Transparency, is simultaneously losing $1.22 for every dollar it makes and preparing a trillion dollar IPO. Losing money on every single transaction while expecting a trillion dollar valuation is the ultimate techra magic trick. Truly, the math is mathing. I cover that in detail and it connects directly to everything happening here. That's the video that I would watch next. Thank you so much for watching this one.

关键字: jailbreak export-control dual-use-technology national-security defense-contracts