欢迎与世界经济论坛
Nicolai: 大家好,我是挪威主权财富基金(Norges Bank Investment Management: 挪威中央银行旗下的主权财富基金,管理挪威政府的石油收入)的首席执行官尼古拉·坦根。今天我非常高兴,因为我的挪威同胞博尔格·布伦德(Børge Brende)加入了我们。
View/Hide Original English
Hi everyone. I'm Nicolola Tangian, the CEO of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund. And today I'm really excited because I'm joined by my fellow Norwegian, Burger Brenda.
Nicolai: 博尔格是世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum: 一个致力于通过公私合作改善世界状况的国际组织)的主席兼首席执行官,该组织是标志性达沃斯(Davos: 世界经济论坛每年举行年会的地方,全球领导人在此会面)聚会的幕后推手,全球最有影响力的领导人每年都会在那里会面,共同塑造全球议程。
View/Hide Original English
And Burger, he is the president and CEO of the World Economic Forum, the organization behind the iconic divorce gatherings and that's where the world's most powerful leaders meet each year to shape the global agenda.
Nicolai: 我认为,博尔格也是世界上人脉最广的人。所以,博尔格,很高兴能邀请你来。
View/Hide Original English
Um, Burger also happens to be, I think, the best connected person in the world. So, uh, Burger, pleasure to have you here.
Børge: 听到你这么说,这对我意义重大。在我们讨论那些真正重大的议题之前,对于那些不了解世界经济论坛的听众来说,它究竟是什么?
View/Hide Original English
of coming from you that means a lot um let's uh uh before we move on to the big the really big topics for listeners who uh don't know what exactly is the World Economic Forum?
Børge: 世界经济论坛已经有55年的历史了。它是一个促进公私合作的国际组织,总部设在瑞士日内瓦,是一个非营利机构。正如你所说,我们最广为人知的是在达沃斯举行的年会,它汇集了商界和政府的关键人物。但我们还有数百场会议,以及数百项不同的公私合作倡议,涵盖从打击腐败、自然与气候到振兴增长和贸易等领域。
View/Hide Original English
So the World Economic Forum is 55 years old. It is an international organization for public private cooperation. It's based here in Geneva, Switzerland. It's not for profit and as you said we're most known for our annual meeting in Davos that bring uh brings um key people from business and governments together but we have hundreds of meetings we have hundreds of different initiatives public private uh in the field of uh fighting corruption through nature and climate uh to reviving growth and trade.
Nicolai: 论坛有多少人工作?这个组织有多大?
View/Hide Original English
How many people work at the forum? How big an organization is it?
Børge: 总共有大约一千名员工。
View/Hide Original English
So altogether um around um thousand people.
Nicolai: 你如何定义这个组织的成功?你们想要实现什么?
View/Hide Original English
How do you define success for the organization? What what is it that you want to achieve?
Børge: 当我们能够把人们聚集在一起,并促进进步时,这就是成功。
View/Hide Original English
It is when we can get people together and we can facilitate progress.
Nicolai: 成功的关键是什么?
View/Hide Original English
And what's the key to that?
Børge: 当然,在当今世界,我们看到更多的碎片化和两极分化,让那些甚至在同一房间里都无法达成共识的人们聚集在一起,比过去更难。
View/Hide Original English
So um of course in today's world where we see much more fragmentations and polarization is harder than in the past uh to get people that don't even agree in the same room.
Børge: 但即使在民族主义和民族国家时代,利益也存在重叠。所以我们试图识别公司和国家之间的利益重叠,如果存在重叠,我们就可以抓住机会,也许可以形成一项倡议,促进我之前提到的进步。
View/Hide Original English
But even in the age of um nationalism and na nation states there is also overlap in interest. So what we're trying to identify uh between companies and countries if there is overlap in interest we can strike and we can maybe form an initiative we can facilitate uh the progress that I was referring to.
Børge: 例如,看看网络犯罪,我们每年可能因网络犯罪损失四到五万亿美元,这相当于全球GDP的3-4%。我认为即使是G2(Group of Two: 指美国和中国这两个全球最大的经济体),中国和美国也能同意这不是一个好主意。
View/Hide Original English
So for example look at cyber crime we probably lose like four five trillion US dollars a year in cyber crime. That's like three 4% of the global GDP. I think even the G2, China and the US can agree that is not a good idea.
Børge: 所以在那里我们可以制定规则和法规,以消除这种网络犯罪用途。我认为还有其他领域,比如未来的流行病。希望未来我们能在自然和气候问题上达成更多共识。这些就是我们的运作模式。
View/Hide Original English
So there we can work on rules and regulations uh on how to get rid of this um criminal use of uh cyber. I think there are also other areas like future pandemics. Um hopefully in the future we can come back again to have some more consensus on nature and climate. So these are areas and this is our kind of modus operandi uh today.
全球秩序的转变与地缘政治碎片化
Nicolai: 博尔格,让我们从一些重大问题开始。在两种世界秩序之间运作意味着什么?我想这就是我们现在正在做的事情。
View/Hide Original English
Burger um let's let's um kick off with some of these big uh big questions. Um what does it mean to operate between two world orders which I guess is what we're doing just now.
Børge: 是的,我们确实如此。冷战结束后,在1989年,我们曾有一种世界秩序,那是一种双赢思维:对你有利的也对我有利,反之亦然。
View/Hide Original English
Yeah, we are we had one world order uh after uh the cold war 89. Uh that was like a win-win thinking. what is good for you is good for me and vice versa.
Børge: 现在,我们更多地转向一种更具竞争性的方式,也更像过去的重商主义。你知道,我不太相信乞丐邻居(Beggar-thy-neighbor: 一种贸易政策,通过牺牲他国利益来促进本国经济,例如通过关税或货币贬值)的做法。我认为你应该让你的邻居也繁荣起来,但那种世界秩序已经不复存在了。
View/Hide Original English
Uh to more of approach now that is more competitive. It's also more mercantalistic from uh the past and you know I'm not a big believer in beggar thy neighbor. I think you should rather prosper your uh neighbor but that world order uh is not there anymore.
Børge: 在世界秩序之间,总是混乱无序的时期。我们从历史中知道这一点。有人可能会说,这就像是多极化(Multipolarity: 国际体系中存在多个主要权力中心的状态)而没有多边主义(Multilateralism: 多个国家在共同原则下合作解决全球问题的方式)。
View/Hide Original English
And between world orders, it's always uh unruly times. We know that from history. Some people would say that it's like multi- polarity without multilateralism.
Børge: 我会说,这更多是从软实力(Soft Power: 通过文化吸引力、政治价值观和外交政策而非军事或经济强制来影响他国的能力)转向硬实力(Hard Power: 通过军事和经济手段来影响他国的能力)。竞争激烈,我只希望新的世界秩序也能带来一些共同规则的思考,这样我们未来就不会陷入“丛林法则”。
View/Hide Original English
I would say it's more from soft power to hard power. there is tough competition and I just hope that the new world order also will uh bring with it uh some uh thinking of common rules so we don't end up in like the law of the jungle uh in the future.
Børge: 我不认为我们会走到那一步,但这显然是一个与我们过去习惯的不同的世界秩序。
View/Hide Original English
I don't think we will go uh that far but it's obviously a different world order than the one we were used to.
Nicolai: 你认为这种地缘政治碎片化会走多远?
View/Hide Original English
And how far do you think this uh geopolitical fragmentation will go?
Børge: 很难说,但你知道,世界各国领导人也希望重振经济增长。要连任,你需要一个良好的经济。我认为他们也会看到,如果过度近岸外包(N-shoring/Nearshoring: 将生产或服务从遥远的国家转移到地理位置更近的国家)、友岸外包(Friend-shoring: 将供应链转移到地缘政治上更友好的国家),并且只与你喜欢的人进行贸易,而不是选择那些能提供最好和最便宜产品的地方,那么作为投入要素的一部分,你的经济将付出代价,经济增长会更加缓慢。
View/Hide Original English
It's hard to say, but you know, world leaders also want to revive growth. U to be reelected, you need a good economy. And I think they will also see that if you go too far in n shoring, friend shoring and only trade with people uh you like and not uh where you get the best and cheapest products um part of your then as input factor will also come with um economic cost and you will see more sluggish uh growth.
Børge: 所以希望不会出现完全的脱钩(Decoupling: 经济体之间减少相互依赖,尤其是在贸易和技术方面)。我认为全球价值链会得到保障,但不会完全脱钩。
View/Hide Original English
So hopefully there uh will not be a full decoupling. I think there is going to be a securing of the global value chains but I don't think there will be a full decoupling.
Børge: 此外,我们正处于新技术带来的范式转变(Paradigm Shift: 根本性的观念或方法上的改变)中。我想我们稍后会再谈到这一点,但这也能支持经济增长,也许会有竞争,但也可能有一些合作。
View/Hide Original English
and additionally we are in a paradigm shift with the new technologies. I guess we'll come back to that but that can also be supportive for uh economic growth and maybe it's of course um then competition but maybe also some cooperation.
Nicolai: 那么在你看来,这是一种暂时的情况,还是我们正处于一个更重大分裂的开端?
View/Hide Original English
So, in your mind, do you think this is a temporary situation or are we at the beginning of a of an even more significant split?
Børge: 我认为我们不会回到过去那个全球化、以联合国为基础的合作、法治的时代。我认为这些方面仍然会存在,但会有更强大的力量。这将是利益驱动的。
View/Hide Original English
I think we're not going to see the old era back with uh the era where you had globalization and you had um like uh the UN sharper basis of the corporation, the rule of law. I think there still will be aspects of this but I think there will be more uh strong powers. It will be interest.
Børge: 我们也将进入一个贸易格局将发生变化的情况。但希望这将是一个真正的全球化,希望新技术也能发挥积极作用,成为增长的积极贡献者,而不是赢家通吃的局面。
View/Hide Original English
We will also go into a situation where uh trade will look uh differently. But hopefully it will be a real globalization and hopefully the new technologies can also play uh good factor be a good um and pass positive contributor uh to growth and not a situation where the winner takes it all.
经济增长与新技术的潜力
Nicolai: 你认为我们会经历一段经济停滞期吗?
View/Hide Original English
Do you think we'll see a period of economic stagnation?
Børge: 我认为有一些因素正在减缓全球增长,而且我认为自1945年以来最高的全球债务水平,也使得各国在面临衰退时更难应对。
View/Hide Original English
I think there are elements that are no uh slowing uh down the global growth and I think the fact that we have the highest global debt since 1945 also gives nation states um a harder time if we're going to see a recession.
Børge: 没有那么多的财政空间(Fiscal Muscles: 政府通过财政政策刺激经济的能力,例如增加支出或减税)。但与此同时,我不认为我们会重演1970年代的缓慢增长。
View/Hide Original English
There is not that much of fiscal muscles. But at the same time I don't think we're going to see a repetition of the sluggish growth from the 1970s.
Nicolai: 为什么?
View/Hide Original English
And why is that?
Børge: 我认为正如我之前提到的,新技术非常强大。贸易作为几十年来增长的引擎,其增长速度是趋势增长的两到三倍。我认为新技术将是巨大的变革者,它们可能会在未来十年将生产力提高10%,然后它们将成为即使全球经济出现更多脱钩也能继续增长的因素。
View/Hide Original English
I think as I already mentioned the new technologies are so incredibly powerful and uh the way that trade was the engine of growth for decades grew two to three times more uh than trend growth I think uh the new technologies will be the big game changer they will increase productivity maybe with 10% in the coming decade and they can then be the factors that will still continue with growth even if there is more decoupling in the global economy and the global economy has been surprisingly resilient so far even in uh a very difficult geopolitical uh situation.
Børge: 所以我更倾向于“半杯水满”而不是“半杯水空”的看法。
View/Hide Original English
So I'm more half like half glass full than half glass empty.
Nicolai: 你认为经济和金融市场为何如此有韧性?
View/Hide Original English
Why do you think the economy and financial markets have been so resilient?
Børge: 我认为我们已经看到了新技术的效应,尤其是在美国,部分也在印度。我认为你正在看到生产力提升,巨大的投资,以及医学和科学领域将出现我们很久未见的突破。
View/Hide Original English
I think there uh is um we we already see uh the effect especially in the US and I think partly uh also in India uh of the new um technologies I think you're seeing productivity gains you're seeing huge investments you're going to see new breakthroughs in medicine uh in sciences that we haven't seen um in a long time. I think this is part of it.
Børge: 我认为到目前为止我们所看到的保护主义措施并没有那么严厉,以至于对新冠疫情后以及巨额刺激措施带来的增长造成太大影响。
View/Hide Original English
and I think what we've seen so far on protectionist measures have not been so severe that um you have impacted uh too much uh the growth that was already there uh post uh COVID and also due to the huge stimulus.
Børge: 但事实是,我们现在的增长速度比疫情前慢。几十年来,全球趋势增长率接近4%,而现在我们更接近3%。这无法解决我们全球面临的巨大挑战,无法让我们实现可持续发展目标,也无法像过去几十年那样消除贫困,除非新技术能再次将我们带回接近4%的增长。
View/Hide Original English
But it is a fact that we are growing slower now uh than uh before co and for decades we had a global trend growth of close to 4%. We are no more than we're closer to 3%. And that that is not going to solve the big challenges we have globally. It's not going to lead us to meeting the sustainable development goals. It's not going to eradicate poverty in the same way as we saw in the last decades. provided that the new technologies will not bring us up closer to 4% again.
Børge: 这就是我的希望。而且新技术的好处是它们不污染环境,它们不会建造带有巨大排放的大型管道。这是一种与过去非常不同的增长,更加可持续。
View/Hide Original English
And that that is my hope. And the positive thing with the new technologies, they're not polluting. They're not building like big pipes uh uh with uh huge emissions. These are this is growth uh where it's a very different growth uh than in the past. Much more sustainable.
美国与欧洲的经济前景
Nicolai: 回到一月份,在达沃斯,美国人对前景非常乐观和看好,而欧洲人则显得有些悲观,仿佛在参加葬礼。自那以后,美国发生了什么?你认为美国在国内和国际舞台上将走向何方?
View/Hide Original English
uh back in January um in Davos um the uh the Americans were really optimistic and very bullish about the outlook whilst Europeans uh they were kind of uh more like they were in some kind of funeral. What's been um happening in the US since and just where is where do you think where do you see the US going um in a way both both at home and also at the at the world scene?
Børge: 很难预测,每天都有新闻。但与此同时,美国占全球经济的27%,人口占全球的5%,却拥有近50%的全球军事力量。许多大型且最具创新性的公司都在美国,所以我认为美国经济仍将充满活力。
View/Hide Original English
It's hard to predict. uh there is news every day but at the same time uh the US is like 27% of the global economy with 5% of the global population they have almost 50% of the global military power a lot of the big and most innovative companies are in the US so I think there still uh is going to be uh a vibrant economy in the US.
Børge: 但他们也面临通货膨胀和移民问题。后者是政府议程上的重要事项。前者则更为复杂,如果你为进口支付更多费用,并且在国内劳动力市场创造更艰难的局面,可能会导致更高的通货膨胀。
View/Hide Original English
but they're also um facing inflation and immigration. The latter is high on the administration's agenda. Uh the first one is more complicated if you are paying more for imports and you're creating also a tougher uh market at home when it comes to access to labor can lead to higher inflation.
Børge: 所以这些是特朗普承诺要解决的两个大问题:对抗通货膨胀和移民。但总的来说,我仍然认为美国经济非常稳健。我认为它将继续增长,我更相信软着陆(Soft landing: 经济增长放缓但避免衰退的情况),而不是硬着陆(Hard landing: 经济急剧放缓或陷入衰退的情况)。
View/Hide Original English
So these were uh the two big eyes that was were promised by Trump fighting inflation and uh immigration. But overall I do think still that the US economy is uh very solid. I think it's going to continue to uh grow I believe more in the soft landing uh than in the hard landing.
Børge: 从地缘政治角度看,当然,这是一个与过去截然不同的政府,欧洲人正在为此挣扎。但与此同时,我认为自达沃斯以来,欧洲的局面也发生了变化。
View/Hide Original English
Geopolitically uh of course it is um definitely a different administration uh than um in the past and the Europeans are struggling with this but at the same time uh I think the side also has changed in Europe since Davos.
Nicolai: 在哪些方面?
View/Hide Original English
In what ways?
Børge: 因为在达沃斯,欧洲弥漫着悲观情绪。我认为欧洲的情况并没有那么糟糕。看看所有OECD(Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development: 经济合作与发展组织,由38个市场经济国家组成的国际经济组织)经济体中增长最快的,包括美国经济,是西班牙。
View/Hide Original English
Because uh in Davos there was like gloom and doom uh when it came to Europe. I think uh things are not as bad in Europe. Uh look at the fastest growing of all the OCD economies including American economy is Spain.
Børge: 西班牙在20年前,至少15年前,几乎被判了死刑,当时青年失业率高达40%。另一个增长非常快的经济体是希腊,它也曾被彻底放弃,整个欧元区也曾被看衰,但它仍然是世界上第二重要的货币。
View/Hide Original English
and Spain was almost written off 20 years ago at least 15 years ago they had youth unemployment of 40%. Another very fast growing economy is Greece that was definitely written off and the whole euro was written off and it's still the second most important currency in the world.
Børge: 我们也看到科学家和其他人才来到欧洲。欧洲被视为一个生活质量高的地方。我们知道正在发生人才争夺战。所以也许欧洲在人才方面可以变得更好。
View/Hide Original English
We're seeing also scientists and others coming to Europe. Europe is seen as a place uh where there is high life quality. Uh we know there is a tal talent war going on. So maybe Europe can get uh in a better shape when it comes to talent.
Børge: 但繁文缛节(Red tape: 指过度复杂的规章制度和官僚程序)、官僚主义,以及到目前为止对德拉吉报告(Draghi report: 欧盟前央行行长马里奥·德拉吉为欧盟竞争力提出的报告)不够强有力的后续行动,以及内部政治冲动,正在阻碍欧洲。
View/Hide Original English
But red tape uh bureaucracy um and uh so far not uh the most robust followup of the draggy report is holding Europe back and also internal political uh impulses.
Børge: 德国现在有一个大党德国选择党(AFD: Alternative for Germany,德国的一个右翼民粹主义政党),但与此同时,我们也看到一些执政党表现更好。所以我现在对欧洲比几个月前更乐观。
View/Hide Original English
uh we have the AFD big party now uh in Germany but at the same time we um also see uh that some of the incubant parties are also uh doing better. So I'm more optimistic on Europe now than I was just a few months ago.
中美关系与中国经济挑战
Nicolai: 你如何看待美国和中国之间的关系?
View/Hide Original English
How do you read the relationship between US and China?
Børge: 这种关系是世界上最重要的。正如我提到的,美国占全球GDP的近30%,中国占近20%,这几乎是我们全球经济的一半。它们之间肯定存在竞争,这两个国家之间竞争激烈,它们有不同的利益领域。
View/Hide Original English
That relationship is the most important one uh in the world. the so-called G2 as I mentioned uh US almost 30% of the global GDP China almost 20 that's almost half of our global economy and they are definitely competing it's a big competition between these two nations and they have different interests swares and uh China uh has been also um constantly uh relying less on export to the US.
Børge: 如果你现在看中国的对美出口,它已经从2013年占其出口的20%下降到现在的11%或12%左右。所以他们更具韧性,更加多元化。
View/Hide Original English
if you look Now at the Chinese export to the US, it's gone down from 20% of their export in 2013 to now I think is around 11 12%. So they're more resilient, they're more diversified.
Børge: 但当然,中国也像美国一样面临国内经济挑战。这是一个出口导向型经济体,当出口变得更困难,而且全球需求正在从制成品转向服务和数字贸易时,这些是中国现在正试图转向的领域。
View/Hide Original English
But of course uh China is also faced with economic uh domestic challenges as uh in the US. uh there is a export-led economy when export is harder and also the demand globally is changing from manufactured goods to services and digital trade and these are area where China is now trying to pivot to worse.
Børge: 但传统上,他们是制成品的主要出口国,我们看到那里的需求已经达到顶峰。我们也知道房地产价格问题。劳动力也在萎缩。所以,中国也面临结构性挑战,但他们也非常擅长解决这些问题。
View/Hide Original English
but traditionally they've been the big exporter of uh manufactured goods and there we see that the demand has peaked we also know that the property prices. There is also a shrinking of the workforce. So, China is also faced with structural challenges, but they're also very good at addressing those things.
Børge: 他们现在正在做出改变,例如在企业家社区以及初创公司和科技公司方面,我认为这在中国社区得到了很好的关注。
View/Hide Original English
and they um are making uh changes now for example in um the community for entrepreneurs and also startups and tech companies um that um I think is well noticed by this community in China.
世界经济论坛的运作与信任建设
Nicolai: 接下来谈谈你们如何确定优先事项。你和世界经济论坛在全球对话中扮演着非常重要的角色。你们如何决定达沃斯的议程?
View/Hide Original English
Just moving on to how you uh get to your priorities. You uh play a very big role um I mean you and the world economic forum in in in in shaping the global conversations. How do you how do you decide what should be on the agenda on the end agenda in Davos?
Børge: 我们试图审视哪些议题能够取得进展,哪些议题通过将人们聚集在一起至少可以增进对彼此挑战的理解。在许多方面,我们都在同一条船上,我认为我们正在忘记这一点。如果面临跨国界挑战,我们不能像单个民族国家那样解决它们。
View/Hide Original English
So we uh try to look at um what are the topics where we can make also progress where bringing people together at least can increase the understanding of each other's challenges and in many ways we are in the same boat and that I think we are forgetting if we are faced with transboundary challenges we cannot um solve them as uh than single nation states.
Børge: 我们还认为,虽然各国现在负债累累,有些国家是自拿破仑战争以来负债最严重的,但私营部门仍然充满活力,他们有大量资金可以投资。
View/Hide Original English
We also think that while the uh while countries are now very inepted, some countries are more indeped at any time since the Napoleonic war. So it's like serious private sector is still very vibrant. They have a lot of money to invest.
Børge: 所以,我认为私营部门和政府之间的合作是解决一些关键挑战的未来方向。你需要私营部门的参与,才能做出正确的改变。这些是我们希望在2026年达沃斯讨论的事情。
View/Hide Original English
So um to work between private sector and government I think is the way forward also to then addressing and solving some of the key challenges. You need the private sector on board uh to also make uh the right changes. These are things we would like uh to discuss uh also in Davos in 20 uh 26.
Nicolai: 讨论这些话题的最佳方式是什么?因为你们有大型公开会议,有仅限受邀者参加的小型会议,有双边会议,各种形式都有。你认为哪种方式最有效率地会见人们并讨论重大问题?
View/Hide Original English
What's the best way to discuss these topics? Because uh you have big uh public sessions, you have smaller invites only tracks, you have bilateral meetings, you got all kinds of all kinds of formats. uh like what do you what do you think is the most efficient way of meeting people and discussing big problems?
Børge: 以上所有方式。我认为这不是非此即彼。我们必须将它们结合起来。与总统和财富50强企业的首席执行官举行大型公开会议,可以增加全球关注度,也可以为小型会议提供良好的输入,让同样的人们可以会面和讨论。
View/Hide Original English
all the above I I think it's not either or we have to combine it a big public session with the presidents and also key fortune 50 cos uh increases uh the global attention it can also be a good input to smaller meetings where the same people can meet and discuss.
Børge: 还有基于查塔姆议会规则(Chatham House Rule: 一种会议规则,允许与会者自由使用会议中获得的信息,但不得透露发言者的身份或其所属机构)的会议,在那里你不能公开使用所说的话,这些会议也相当成功。然后还有双边会议,人们在达沃斯会面,讨论边境冲突,讨论国家或公司之间的挑战。
View/Hide Original English
and there is then also the so-called Chattam House uh based uh meetings where uh you cannot use what is said there uh publicly that also are pretty successful and then you have bilateral meetings where people meet uh in Davos and they can discuss border conflicts they can discuss uh challenges between uh nations or companies.
Børge: 所以我认为整个生态系统也是基于这样一种理解:在达沃斯,你带着寻找解决方案的心态而来,而不是仅仅表达你的分歧。
View/Hide Original English
So I think the whole ecosystem uh is also based on an understanding that uh in Davos you come with a mindset to find solutions not to just articulate what um what what you disagree on.
Nicolai: 你们汇集了所谓的全球精英,谁是当今世界上真正重要的人物?
View/Hide Original English
You get together the so-called global elite who are the who are the really important people in the world today.
Børge: 我们说我们汇集了来自政府的领导人、来自私营部门的领导人,以及来自大学、科学界、工会和公民社会的领导人。他们共同形成了一个独特的多方利益攸关者(Multi-stakeholder: 涉及政府、私营部门、公民社会、学术界等多个群体共同参与的模式)组合,我认为我们可以一起实现目标。
View/Hide Original English
So uh we say that we bring together uh leaders from government and leaders uh from the private sector and also leaders from universities, science, um labor unions, uh also civil society and together uh they form a unique multi- stakeholder blend where I think we can uh then uh achieve things together.
Børge: 我们过去曾看到,例如,在制定新技术交通规则时,人类应该凌驾于算法之上,而不是算法凌驾于人类之上,这不应该有争议。这些是我们能够在达沃斯讨论的事情,但我们当然无法最终确定这些规则。这需要其他机构来做。
View/Hide Original English
and we've seen that um In the past, for example, the whole notion of finding traffic rules uh when it comes to the new technologies that the humans should be on top of the algorithms and not the algorithms uh of the humans uh shouldn't be controversial. These are things that we are able to discuss in Davos, but we're not able to finalize of course these kind of rules. That's for um other bodies uh to do.
Børge: 这种多方利益攸关者会议的优势在于,我们可以将必要的参与者聚集在一起,以实现任何形式的进展。
View/Hide Original English
But the strength of a multistakeholder meeting like this is that um we can bring uh players together that uh it is necessary to bring together to see any kind of progress.
Nicolai: 你提到的这个多方利益攸关者群体在过去十年中发生了怎样的变化?哪些类型的人正在加入,哪些正在离开?
View/Hide Original English
This group which you called the multistakeholder uh group uh how how has that changed over the last 10 years? What what type of people are uh coming in and who are going out?
Børge: 这是一个好问题。你知道,在公司里,我们看到首席执行官的任期比过去更短,只有三四年,然后有些公司就更换了首席执行官。
View/Hide Original English
So that's a good question. um you know that uh in the companies they we have seen a tendency of uh cos lasting shorter than in the past three four years and then some companies just change the uh co.
Børge: 我们也知道,如今执政很艰难。在政府中,对于那些举行选举的国家来说,存在一种反现任因素。所以我想我们过去可以看到一些人任职几十年。现在这种情况越来越少,至少在欧洲和北美是这样。我们看到名牌更换得更频繁了。
View/Hide Original English
we also know that being in power today is tough being in government there is anti-inccubent factor for those countries at least that do have uh these kind of elections so I think we in the past could see some people come for decades. Um that's less frequent now at least uh from Europe and North America. We see uh that um the name tags are changing much more frequently.
Nicolai: 这有什么影响?
View/Hide Original English
What are the implications?
Børge: 我认为这也是许多公司和许多国家短期思维的一个迹象。实施一项战略并取得成功需要时间。所以如果你在一个国家当选,你必须在第一年努力工作来实施改革,希望四年后选举时能看到积极的结果。
View/Hide Original English
I I I think it's also a sign of um uh shortterm thinking uh in many companies and uh in many countries. It takes time uh to um really be successful in implementing a strategy. So if you're elected uh in a country, you have to really work hard the first year to implement the reforms and hopefully you will see the positive results um four years later is when the elections are there.
Børge: 但你知道,有些改革的结果只有在十年后才能看到。我认为公司也是如此。有些公司更注重长期,不只关注上个季度的业绩,但我认为这是一种趋势。
View/Hide Original English
But you know some reforms you can only see the result of in a in a decade's uh perspective. Um and I think the same uh are in companies. some companies are more long-term and not only focused on the last quarter's results, but I think there is a tendency uh for that.
Børge: 但面对新技术和我们面临的所有挑战,我认为我们也不应忘记,我们应该认识到保持中长期视角的的重要性,这应该得到奖励。
View/Hide Original English
But with the new technologies with all the challenges we're faced with I I I think one um also should not forget that um we should also acknowledge the importance of being u medium long-term uh in your perspective and that should also be uh rewarded.
Nicolai: 在一个人们更频繁变动的世界里,建立信任是否更困难?
View/Hide Original English
Is it more difficult to build trust in a world where people are changing uh more frequently?
Børge: 这确实带来了挑战,但我们也在更好地吸纳公司的管理层,不仅仅是首席执行官和董事长,还有公司领导层的其他人员,国家也是如此。所以我们现在也邀请一些国家的关键反对派领导人。
View/Hide Original English
So um it comes with its challenges but we're also been better at uh including um seuitees from companies not only the CEO and the chairperson but also other uh people in the leadership of companies and the same with countries. So we also know invite key opposition leaders from uh some countries.
Børge: 所以总的来说,我认为我们仍然能够吸引大量优秀的人群参加我们的会议。例如,我们现在将在四周后前往中国天津参加夏季达沃斯会议,那里的报名人数令人难以置信。我们很久没有看到这样的数字了。
View/Hide Original English
So overall, I think we're still able to have uh a great uh crowd uh in and at our meetings. Uh we are for example now uh going to go to TNEN China for summer doubles in um four weeks and the sign up there is incredible. We haven't seen this kind of numbers in a long time.
Børge: 所以我认为人们对解读正在发生的事情、将点点滴滴联系起来非常感兴趣。过去人们也为了倡议和伙伴关系而来,我认为这仍然很重要,但世界变得如此复杂,以至于我们看到许多领导人前来表示,我们真的需要会面才能理解未来可能的展望是什么?有哪些情景?以及更多地关注韧性,如何建立应对未知的能力。
View/Hide Original English
So I think there is a lot of interest to also decipher what is really happening to connect the dots. So before people came also um for the initiatives and the partnerships I think that still is important but the world has become so complex that we're seeing a lot of leaders coming and say we really just need to meet to understand um what what are the possible uh prospects uh for the future? What are the scenarios out there and more focus on resilience? how to build capacity to handle the unknowns.
Nicolai: 在更个人层面,建立关系和信任的最佳方式是什么?因为这似乎就是你的工作,对吗?
View/Hide Original English
On a more um personal level, what's the best way to build relationships and trust because that's kind of what you do for a living, right?
Børge: 我认为你必须成为一个诚实的中间人。你不能过度承诺。你应该总是超额交付,而不是反其道而行之。
View/Hide Original English
I think that um you have to be an honest broker. Uh you have to not um then overpromise. uh you should all always um uh overd deliver uh instead of um of of the opposite.
Børge: 我们是一个公正的组织。所以我们非常清楚,我们与印度、美国、巴西、中国等国家密切合作。我们扮演着促进者和平台的角色。我们不是一个激进组织,不会说我们正在为这个或那个而努力。我们最远也只会说我们是进步的促进者。
View/Hide Original English
Uh and you have we are a impartial organization. So we are very clear that we work as closely with the India as we do with the US, Brazil, China and we we are like a facilitator and a platform. We're not an organization that is an activist organization saying that uh we are working for this and this the the far furthest we go is to say that we're facilitators of progress.
Børge: 我认为这能建立信任,随着时间的推移,他们确实看到与世界经济论坛合作能带来积极成果。
View/Hide Original English
I think that is building trust and um and over time they do see that they get uh positive results of engaging with the world economic firm.
Nicolai: 处理那些拥有强大自我意识的权势人物的关键是什么?
View/Hide Original English
What's the key to handling powerful people with big eos?
Børge: 我认为关键在于有一个好的议程,让他们觉得值得花时间,并且对此非常认真。努力工作,我们不会屈服于所有这些领导人的所有要求。我们对我们能提供什么非常开放和透明。
View/Hide Original English
I I I think it's uh to have a good agenda that they feel that is worth their time and um be very serious about that. Hardworking and um we we we don't uh give in to uh all the demands for uh from all uh these um leaders. We are very open and transparent about what we can uh deliver.
Børge: 随着时间的推移,我认为这一直是我们的优势,领导人确实会回来,这在达沃斯是一个巨大的赞扬。今年我们有超过60位国家元首和政府首脑,财富100强企业中有70家公司的首席执行官。这不是一蹴而就的,而是多年努力和建立这种信任的结果。
View/Hide Original English
and over time I I think that has been our strength and and leaders do come back and and that's a it's a big compliment in Davos this year we had more than 60 head of states and governments we had 70 out of 100 fortune 100 cos and this is not done overnight it's hard work um over years and and building that kind of trust.
Nicolai: 你经历过的最困难的外交局面是什么?
View/Hide Original English
uh what's the most difficult diplomatic situation you've been in? Wow.
Børge: 嗯,当我担任挪威外交部长时,我们与哥伦比亚革命武装力量(FARC: Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia,哥伦比亚最大的反政府游击队)和桑托斯总统谈判哥伦比亚和平协议时非常艰难,尤其因为那是一场持续了50年的武装冲突。
View/Hide Original English
Um, it was hard when uh I was foreign minister in Norway and we negotiated the the the peace agreement in Colombia between the FAR gerilla and President Sanchez, especially uh because it was an armed conflict that had with President Santos. It was um hard because this um kind of internal armed conflict had gone on uh for 50 years.
Børge: 当我被赋予修复和重建中挪外交关系的任务时,也有些挑战,这花了几年时间,因为当时没有信任。当然,你必须坚持你的国家价值观和诚信,但同时,能够合作符合一个国家,甚至两个国家的利益。
View/Hide Original English
It was also a bit of a challenge when I was given the task to repair and rebuild the diplomatic relations between China and Norway. something that took uh a few years because there was uh no trust and you have to stick of course to your national values and and your integrity but at the same time um it is in a country's interest uh two countries interest to be able to to work together.
争议与透明度
Nicolai: 好的。我需要问一些稍微困难的问题。在达沃斯有很多私人飞机,这与你们关注气候形成了鲜明对比。你如何看待这些事情?
View/Hide Original English
Okay. Uh I need to ask some uh uh slightly difficult questions too. So uh lots of private jets uh at Davos uh you know kind of a pretty pretty big contrast to the climate focus you have just how do you how do you look at these things?
Børge: 嗯,确实有很多政府领导人乘坐他们的总统专机或官方飞机前来。你知道,我们曾两次邀请特朗普来达沃斯,他确实乘坐空军一号降落。他现在有一架新飞机了。
View/Hide Original English
So um it is true that a lot of um also governmental leaders do come uh with their presidential or official planes. you know, when we have had Trump twice uh in Davos, he he does land um with Air Force One. He's got a new plane now.
Nicolai: 是的,是的,我看到了。
View/Hide Original English
Yeah. Yeah. I I saw that.
Børge: 所以,但这仍然会被计算在内。而且,世界上一些大型公司的首席执行官,他们管理着比许多国家营业额还大的公司,他们也乘坐自己的官方飞机前来。我认为这实际上是一个现实,不会因为达沃斯而改变。所以我只是记录下这一点,这是一个事实。
View/Hide Original English
Uh so uh but it's still uh would be uh counted. And it's also true that some of the big cos of the world uh that run companies that have a bigger turnover than many countries, they also come with their official planes. I think that is uh de facto uh a reality and is not going to change um with Davos. So I'm I'm um I'm just registering this and um it's it's a fact.
Nicolai: 在一个我们可能需要更多透明和开放的世界里,这是否显得非常排外和精英化?
View/Hide Original English
What about this being very exclusive and elitist in a in a world where we perhaps need more transparency and openness?
Børge: 我认为我们非常透明。我认为我们非常开放。我认为世界经济论坛在社交媒体上有大约4000万粉丝,我们在那里发布了很多内容。我之前间接提到了这一点,因为你用了“精英”这个词,但我不想真正深入讨论它。
View/Hide Original English
I think we're very transparent. I think we're very open. Uh I think the World Economic Forum has like 40 million followers in social media and we put out a lot of things uh there. Uh I was indirectly addressing this earlier on because you used the word elite but I didn't really want to go into a discussion about it.
Børge: 但你知道,当你有来自各国的国家元首和政府首脑,来自主要公司的关键首席执行官,来自世界主要常春藤盟校机构的领导人、董事时,你可以说这些人是世界上真正的领导者,如果他们能聚集在一起,就能产生积极的影响。你也可以称他们为精英。
View/Hide Original English
But you know when you have the head of states and governments from countries, you have the key cos from the key companies, you have the leaders, directors from the key Ivy League uh institutions of the world, you can say these are the true leaders in the world that can if they come together make a positive uh influence. You can also call them the elite.
Børge: 我认为他们都非常,至少他们中的大多数人,都是非常努力工作的人,他们才达到了这些职位。我认为把他们聚集在一起是好事。
View/Hide Original English
I think they're all very uh at least most of them very hardworking people that have come to these positions and I think it's good to bring them uh together.
Børge: 我们的一些会议是向公众开放的。正如我提到的,一些会议是闭门会议,因为如果你讨论例如亚美尼亚和阿塞拜疆之间的边境冲突,如果你想取得进展,那不能是公开摄像的。
View/Hide Original English
Some of our meetings are open uh to the public. Some meetings uh as I also mentioned are closed meetings because if you discuss for example between Armenia and Aabajan uh the border uh conflict that cannot be for open camera if you want to have progress.
Børge: 当我们在达沃斯讨论巴勒斯坦人和以色列人之间的问题时,当我们讨论美国人和中国人之间的问题时,这些当然应该是闭门会议,以确保我们取得进展。如果有什么要宣布的,那将在新闻发布会上宣布。
View/Hide Original English
when we have had discussions among Palestinians and Israelis in Davos when we have had discussions also between Americans and and Chinese of course these should be uh closed meetings uh to make sure that we make prog progress and if there are things to announce then it will be announced in the press conference.
领导力文化与个人见解
Nicolai: 你们的创始人克劳斯·施瓦布(Klaus Schwab)最近卸任了。我知道这是一个非常敏感的问题,但你能告诉我们些什么?
View/Hide Original English
Now your founder Klaus Schwab recently stepped down um and I appreciate this is a very sensitive issue but what can you tell us about uh about this?
Børge: 我们的创始人克劳斯·施瓦布在55年后卸任了。他是我们的创始人,在过去的七年半里,我与他密切合作。他现在87岁了,他说他选择卸任并非因为年龄。那是他的声明。
View/Hide Original English
So uh um our founder Klaus Shra has stepped down after 55 uh years. uh he is our founder and I work with him uh closely uh for the last uh 7 and a half uh years. Um he is now 87 years old and he said that he chose not to step down uh due to to age. That was his his statement.
Nicolai: 你的声明是什么?
View/Hide Original English
And what is your statement?
Børge: 也是一样。
View/Hide Original English
Yeah, the same.
Nicolai: 你们将如何改变未来的领导力文化?
View/Hide Original English
Okay. How will you change the leadership culture going forward?
Børge: 世界经济论坛的人力资本是真正的资本。正如我提到的,我有1000名同事,他们每天都在为论坛的使命做出贡献,以改善世界状况或促进进步。
View/Hide Original English
So uh the human capital of the world economic forum is the real capital. uh as I mentioned we have thousand uh I have thousand colleagues uh at um web and uh these are the people that uh also contribute every day uh to the mission of the forum to improve the state of the world or to to facilitate uh progress.
Børge: 但你知道,要激励我们招聘的这种高素质人才,你必须建立强大的团队,一切都关乎激励。如果你有动力,你就能完成很多事情,如果你觉得你正在做的事情也很重要,你就会更有动力。
View/Hide Original English
but you know to motivate people uh that is of this kind of caliber that we uh recruit uh you have to build strong teams it's all about motivation. If you're motivated, you get so much done and if you feel what you're doing is also important, you're even more motivated.
Børge: 所以这将是我的重大任务:确保我们拥有世界上最优秀的人才。你知道,一个人可以走得很快,但如果想走得远,我们必须一起走。世界经济论坛也应该是一个很棒的工作场所,拥有很棒的工作文化,这是我的目标。
View/Hide Original English
So that will um be uh and is my big task. making sure that we have the best talent in the world that you know one person can go very fast but if you want to go far we have to go all together and the world economic forum should also uh be a great place uh to work have a great workplace culture that is my goal.
Nicolai: 你从政治生涯、红十字会等经历中带来了哪些领导理念到这个组织?
View/Hide Original English
what have you brought from uh a life in politics you were head of the uh the Red Cross uh and so on what what leadership ideals have you brought into the organization
Børge: 你知道,了解政府如何运作,以及私营部门如何运作,然后通过将它们匹配起来取得进展,这是你在私营部门和政府工作时学到的东西。
View/Hide Original English
You know that's u understanding also uh how governments work and also uh the private sector and how you can then by matching them uh making uh progress is something that you learn uh if you work both in private sector and in uh in government.
Børge: 所以我花了很多时间试图以新的方式进行创新,打破一些固有的冲动,因为冲动太多了。例如,几年前在格拉斯哥举行的COP26(Conference of the Parties 26: 联合国气候变化大会第26次会议,于2021年在格拉斯哥举行)期间,我们提出了一个想法,让全球领先的公司利用其购买力来绿色化其供应链。
View/Hide Original English
So I'm spending a lot of my time on trying to be creative uh in new ways of breaking impulses because there are so many impulses. So for example, a few years ago during COP uh 26 in Glasgow, we got this uh idea of having the leading global companies using their purchasing power to green their supply chain.
Børge: 例如,苹果公司表示其25%的铝需求必须是绿色的。如果公司这样做,它会树立一个非常强烈的榜样。这是它们的权利,因为它们是私营公司。所以它们可以这样做,这也会创造巨大的需求。
View/Hide Original English
saying that for example Apple says that 25% of their aluminium needs to be green. If you have companies uh doing this, it sets really a strong example. It's their right because they're privately owned companies. So they can do this and that creates also a big demand.
Børge: 例如,我们多年来一直有一个由100家公司组成的联盟,它们在打击腐败和提高透明度方面超越了国家立法。我们每年因腐败损失数万亿美元,这些钱本可以用于不同的投资。
View/Hide Original English
We have for example for years now had a coalition of 100 companies uh going further than the national legislation on fighting corruption, opening up for transparency. we are losing trillions of US dollars every year in corruption uh that should have been invested differently.
Børge: 这些领域我认为凭借我的背景,我希望能将政治见解、多边组织的见解与私营部门结合起来,这在论坛是独一无二的,因为我们是公私合作的。
View/Hide Original English
These are the areas where I think with my background I hopefully can combine um political insights insights uh from multi-ateral organizations also with uh the private sector that is unique at the forum because we're public private.
Nicolai: 但你仍然谈论气候倡议等等。现在在世界某些地方,他们谈论得少了。你对我们看到的针对ESG(Environmental, Social, and Governance: 环境、社会和公司治理,衡量企业可持续性和道德影响的指标)和气候倡议的转变或反弹有什么看法?
View/Hide Original English
but you still talk about uh climate initiatives and so on. Um now in some parts of the world they talk less about it. What um what is your view on on the on the kind of Uturn or backlash we've seen against uh against ESG and and and climate initiatives.
Børge: 政治可能变了,但科学没有。但确实,当你讨论气候时,你也必须考虑能源。这就像一个三角形。
View/Hide Original English
So um politics maybe have changed but science hasn't. But it is true that uh when you discuss climate you also have to bring in energy. It's like a triangle.
Børge: 我们的星球上仍有大约7亿人甚至无法获得电力,而电力是支持进步和发展所必需的。未来我们需要将能源增长与二氧化碳排放脱钩,但同时,我们也必须以不损害能源安全的方式进行。
View/Hide Original English
There's still like 700 million people on our planet that don't even have access to electricity that is needed uh to support progress and development and we need to decouple uh growth in energy and CO2 emissions uh in the future but at the same time we also have to do it in a way that we don't compromise on energy security.
Børge: 我们在欧洲看到,将近一半的天然气依赖俄罗斯是多么糟糕的主意。多元化也很重要。所以我认为这并不简单。改变能源需求,改变我们支持发展的方式,使用不同的能源,这是我们几十年来经历过的最复杂的转型。
View/Hide Original English
We have seen in Europe uh how bad an idea it was to base uh almost half of our natural gas um from Russia. Diversification is also important. So I think it's it's not simplistic. changing the energy um demand and changing the way uh we also um support our development with different energy uh sources is the most complex transition uh we've been through uh probably for decades.
Børge: 我们正在努力展示其复杂性,但仍然可以通过新技术实现什么,比如看看生成式AI(Gen AI: Generative Artificial Intelligence,生成式人工智能,能够生成文本、图像或其他数据的新型AI)。它现在可以加速例如核聚变(Fusion nuclear: 一种核能技术,通过将轻原子核聚变产生能量,被视为清洁能源的未来),我们原以为核聚变可能需要三四十年才能商业化,现在也许我们可以在十年内实现。这意味着很多。
View/Hide Original English
and uh we're trying to show the complexity but still what you can do with new technologies like looking at the gen AI I now can accelerate for example fusion uh nuclear uh that we thought was like maybe going to be available in three or four decades commercially. Maybe we can do it in a decade. That means a lot.
Børge: 看看我们在中国可再生能源方面取得的巨大发展。中国是第一个以电力为基础的国家,一个将大量能源现在依赖可再生能源发电的国家。但当然,这必须平衡,他们通过煤炭、液化天然气和核能来平衡。
View/Hide Original English
Look at the big developments we have had in China on uh renewables. China is the first electrostate um a country that is basing a lot of their energy now on electricity uh sourced from uh renewables but of course it has to be balanced they balance it with uh then coal LG and also uh nuclear.
Børge: 所以我们正在努力保持平衡,但仍在促进进步,我们仍然相信不作为的代价远远超过行动的代价。
View/Hide Original English
so we're trying to be balanced but still facilitating progress and we still believe that the cost of inaction far exceeds the cost of action.
AI的变革力量与全球不平等
Nicolai: 我们简要地提了几次AI,它在我们公司做的许多事情上都是完全革命性的。你认为它将如何塑造全球商业的未来?
View/Hide Original English
We briefly touched on on AI a couple of times um and it's just totally revolutionary in the way that we uh in many of the things we do in our company. Just how do you think it will shape the future of global business?
Børge: 它已经在根本上改变了事物。我原以为我们会停留在硬件阶段更长时间,需要数万亿美元投资于新的语言模型。
View/Hide Original English
It's already changing um things uh very fundamentally. I thought we were going to be in like the hardware phase for a bit longer where you needed like trillions of US dollars investing in the uh new language models.
Børge: 但我认为中国深度学习(DeepSeek: 中国一家专注于大模型研发的AI公司)的经验表明,这家无人知晓的公司突然开发出了一个语言模型,其开发成本可能只有其他公司的一到四分之一,这表明我们可能离软件阶段更近了,在那里我们可以开发应用程序。
View/Hide Original English
But I think the deepseek uh experience from China suddenly this company that no one had heard about had then a landish model that was developed for maybe one/ird one quarter of what others had done shows that we're maybe a little bit closer to the software phase where we can do applications.
Børge: 随着这一点,我认为我们将在能源领域和AI领域看到“百花齐放”,在未来几年,我预计医学和合成生物学领域将发生巨大的突破,但当然,今天由人类完成的许多工作,例如后台办公室的工作,将被生成式AI取代。
View/Hide Original English
and with that I I think we're just just going to see like uh thousand flowers blossom uh in the energy field uh and AI field uh sorry uh in the years uh to come and where I expecting big big changes is in medicine the synthetic biology there's going to be so many breakthroughs but also of course there are jobs uh that are today done by humans back offices and all that that will be replaced by uh gen AI.
Børge: 但这也是历史的进程,你将向上游价值链移动。如果你提高生产力,你也可以增加繁荣,但这当然也会带来对就业的担忧和对未来的担忧。
View/Hide Original English
but that is also the history that you then move higher up in the value chain like if you increase productivity ity you can also increase prosperity but it also creates some fair of course fair for jobs and fairs about the future.
Børge: 就像看看我现在所在的瑞士,100年前95%的人口从事农业,现在只有2%,他们生产的食物比那时多得多,而且只有2%的人口。你可能会问,这些人去了哪里?是的,他们向上游价值链移动,创造了繁荣,这就是未来。
View/Hide Original English
but like look here in Switzerland when I'm now based is uh 95% of the population worked in the agriculture sector 100 years ago and now is like 2% and they produce much more food than back then of 2% of the population and um you could ask where did all these people go yes they went up in the value chain created prosperity that's the future.
Nicolai: 你认为AI将如何改变地缘政治力量平衡?
View/Hide Original English
um how do you think um how do you think AI will change the geopolitical power balance?
Børge: 竞争非常激烈。我认为中国和美国这两个大国也知道,或者说,掌握新技术的国家可能会成为本世纪最强大的国家。所以这种竞争将继续下去。
View/Hide Original English
So uh the competition is fierce um and I think the two big nations China and the US uh also knows or know that the country that's on top of the new technologies will probably emerge as the most powerful nation also of this century. So that competition is going to continue.
Børge: 但我认为也会有其他参与者加入,而且事情很难预测。例如,如果你看看当今全球市值最高的10家公司名单,其中许多在二三十年前并不存在。所以这并不意味着几十年后最大的公司现在已经成立了,它们也不需要来自大国之一。
View/Hide Original English
But I think there's also other players that will come in and things are very hard to predict. If you look at for example the list of the 10 companies in the world with the highest market cap today, many of them did not exist two or three decades ago. So it doesn't mean uh that the largest companies uh in a few decades even are started yet and they don't need to come from the big um in in one of the big players uh country.
Børge: 但它们确实有一些符合其利益的因素。例如,数据访问。数据是这个经济体中的新氧气。如果你有一个大的国内市场和数据访问权,你就有比较优势。如果你有大量资本愿意投资,如果你有优秀的大学,如果你有优秀的研发,如果你有受过良好教育的优秀工程师。
View/Hide Original English
but they do have things that of course uh work in their interest. For example, access to data. Data is the new oxygen in this economy. If you're big a big home market and access to data you have uh comparative um advantage if you have a lot of capital uh interested in investing if you have great universities if you have great R&D if you have great engineers well educated people.
Børge: 所以我认为与新技术相关的竞争将比军事防御方面的竞争更重要。
View/Hide Original English
so um I think the competition related to the new technologies will be more important than uh some of the more military defense parts of the competition.
Nicolai: 你认为AI会加剧全球不平等吗?
View/Hide Original English
Do you think AI will um increase global inequality?
Børge: 我不太确定。因为理论上,理论上它应该会减少不平等。但是,你是否需要一定程度的教育、能源等等才能真正利用它,以及创新和创业精神,还有一支非常精通技术的年轻人口?
View/Hide Original English
I'm not so sure. Um like the because because in theory in theory it should it should decrease it. But don't you need a certain level of education, energy and so on to really utilize it and innovation and entrepreneurship and also a young population uh that is very techsavvy.
Børge: 正如我提到的,在平台经济中,赢家通吃。我们有这些几乎是私人超级大国,它们非常具有主导性。
View/Hide Original English
Um so as I mentioned like in the platform economy the winner took it all. We have this uh big uh almost private superpowers uh that are very dominating.
Børge: 但我认为你也会看到很多初创公司和很多机会,尤其是在新兴经济体中。例如,看看印度,这个拥有14亿人口的国家,没有电子数字身份。中国有大约130家独角兽公司(Unicorns: 指估值超过10亿美元的未上市科技初创公司),而且几乎每季度都会增加10家左右。
View/Hide Original English
But I think also you will see a lot of startups and a lot of opportunities uh also in emerging economies. Look at for example India in this 1.4 four billion people have no um um electronic digital ID. Um there is like 130 uh unicorns uh in China and it is like 10 or something adding almost um on a quarterly uh basis.
Børge: 我们看到那里的增长主要与服务和数字贸易有关。所以我认为,是否需要数万亿美元的巨额投资,目前还没有定论。那些拥有大量资本并愿意分配资本的人将拥有优势。
View/Hide Original English
we see growth there is mainly related to services and digital uh trade. So I think there is the jury is out uh if you need the huge trillion dollars u of investments. There will be uh advantages for those that have a lot of capital and where you want to allocate your capital.
Børge: 但与此同时,我们知道过去很多好主意都是在车库和其他地方产生的。所以这也为拥有大量年轻人口的国家带来了巨大的机会。看看尼日利亚、印度尼西亚、印度、孟加拉国、越南。这些都是增长非常快的新兴经济体。
View/Hide Original English
But at the same time we know that a lot of good ideas have been developed in garages and other places um in the past. Uh so this open up also huge opportunities for the countries with a lot of young people. Look at Nigeria. Uh look at Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam. These very fast growing economies that are emerging economists.
个人生活与职业建议
Nicolai: 好的,接下来是一些更个人化的问题。你工作中哪一部分最让你享受?你什么时候真正进入心流状态?
View/Hide Original English
Okay, moving on to um um a bit more uh personal uh questions. What part of your job do you enjoy the most? Where are you really in the flow?
Børge: 当我能感觉到我们能为寻找解决方案或取得进展做出贡献时。例如,当我们能让50家以色列公司与50家巴勒斯坦公司会面,他们说我们可以一起工作时。
View/Hide Original English
When I can feel that we can contribute to finding either solutions or make progress when we could for example have 50 Israeli cos meeting with six 50 Palestinian cos and they said that we can work uh together.
Børge: 当我们考虑组织一个公司代表团前往大马士革,投资于饱受战争蹂躏的叙利亚时,我认为这很棒。我还觉得对我来说最好的时刻是,当我参加一个美国人和中国人之间的小型会议,讨论在这个两极分化的世界中,我们如何找到合作的方式时。这是我工作中觉得最有意义的部分。
View/Hide Original English
uh when we know thinking about putting together a delegation of cos that want to go to Damascus and invest uh in a wartorrn uh Syria. Uh I think that uh is great. I also felt that the best moment for me and that was when I went to a small meeting between Americans and also Chinese that looked at who can we even in this polarized world uh find ways of working uh together. That's that's the part of the job uh I feel most meaningful.
Nicolai: 现在,我们知道“先知在自己的家乡不受尊敬”,你曾是外交部长,但真正让你成为“摇滚明星”和“重量级人物”的是你走向全球之后。你认为这是为什么?
View/Hide Original English
Now um as we know uh no prophet is honored in his own country and uh you know you were the foreign minister but it's really after you you went global that you become uh you know a rockstar and a heavyweight. Why why do you think that is?
Børge: 我不太确定我是否属于那个类别。我感觉不像那样。但我很享受我在世界经济论坛的工作。我也几乎每天都享受在挪威政治中近30年的时光,我从中学到了很多。
View/Hide Original English
I'm not so sure uh if I'm in that uh lacker category. I don't feel um like that. But um I'm enjoying my job here at the World Economic Forum. I also enjoyed every day um almost at least uh in Norwegian politics for almost 30 years too and I learned so much uh through that.
Børge: 我非常热爱我的祖国。我认为挪威是世界上治理和管理最好的国家之一。如果你看看北欧国家,它们加起来是世界第十大经济体,它们能够实现可观的经济增长,同时在解决不平等问题上也做得不错。
View/Hide Original English
and um you know I'm very fond of my home country I I think that Norway is one of the best uh governed uh and run countries uh in the world and if you look at the Nordic countries together uh they're like 10th largest economy in the world and they have been able to have uh substantial economic growth but at the same time they're not uh doing so badly when it comes to addressing inequalities too.
Børge: 所以我的观点是,机会平等对于一个国家的成功至关重要。但当然,如果你努力工作,你不能和那些不那么努力工作的人得到相同的结果。但机会平等意味着你有机会上好学校,拥有良好的教育体系,让每个年轻人才都能成功。我认为这对我来说非常重要。
View/Hide Original English
So it's it's my view is that equal opportunities is incredibly important for a success of a country. But of course if you work hard you cannot end up with the same results as those that don't work so hard. But equal opportunities meaning that you have access to good schools, have a good educational system that every young talent can succeed. I think that is something that is extremely close to my heart.
Nicolai: 你如何放松?如何休息?
View/Hide Original English
How do you relax? How do you chill?
Børge: 也许在挪威的山里。我喜欢在山里。我也喜欢一个没有演讲、没有旅行的周六早晨,只是喝杯咖啡,坐下来读《金融时报》。我觉得自己非常非常幸运,能花一个半小时做这件事。所以在这方面我很容易满足。
View/Hide Original English
In the mountains maybe uh in Norway. I I I like it in the mountains. I also like a Saturday morning with no speeches, no travel, just uh to have a cup of coffee and sit and read Financial Times the Saturday morning. I'm like I feel very privileged, very very privileged and I can use one and a half hour uh on that. So I'm I'm easily satisfied in in in in that respect.
Nicolai: 你还读些什么?
View/Hide Original English
What else do you read?
Børge: 我当然读所有相关的报纸。所以当你问什么是所有相关的报纸时,那是什么?
View/Hide Original English
So I read uh of course all the relevant papers. Uh I read the So when you what is that? What is all relevant papers? What is that? No.
Børge: 我读《金融时报》、《华尔街日报》、《纽约时报》和《华盛顿邮报》。当然不是每天每页都读,但这些是我读的报纸。我还读了几份挪威报纸。当然,我需要关注家里发生的一些事情。
View/Hide Original English
So I read Financial Times. I read Wall Street Journal. I read uh New York Times. I read also Washington Post. Of course not every page every day but these are the papers that I read. I read a few Norwegian papers uh too. Uh, of course I need to f follow a bit what is happening uh at home.
Børge: 然后我还尝试阅读书籍,主要是关于我不太了解的事情,例如新技术。我强迫自己读了很多关于AI和技术的书,即使我仍然更喜欢读关于地缘政治和地缘经济的书。但我确实明白,在这个职位上,我需要变得更懂技术。
View/Hide Original English
Uh, and uh then I uh also uh try to uh read uh books mainly on things that I'm not so knowledgeable about for example the new technologies. I I forced myself to read a lot of books about AI and technology even if I do still prefer to read books about geopolitics and geoeconomy. But I'm I do understand that in this role I I can I need to become more techsavvy.
Nicolai: 你一生中最感激的是什么?
View/Hide Original English
What are you the most grateful for in life?
Børge: 我在一个可以追求自己兴趣的国家长大,并且有机会通过公共生活贡献多年,也看到我的孩子们在一个和平的国家长大,他们获得了良好的教育。
View/Hide Original English
that I have um grown up in a country uh where you could uh pursue uh your uh interests and uh that I have had the chance to also contribute through public life for many uh years and also seeing my kids growing up uh in a country where there is uh peace and they have had access uh to good education.
Nicolai: 最后,你对年轻人有什么建议?
View/Hide Original English
And um lastly, what is your advice to young people?
Børge: 努力工作。认真对待,但不要总是想着围栏那边的草更绿。你知道,我一生中从未主动申请过工作。我努力工作,但如果你在你所做的事情上做得好,并尝试做你热爱的事情,机会就会来临,不要为职业生涯感到压力。
View/Hide Original English
Work hard. Uh be serious, but not think about always if it's greener on the other side of the fence. You know, I have not applied for jobs in my life. I I things I worked I think I worked very hard but the opportunities do come if you just do well in what you're doing and try to work on something that you're passionate about and don't stress about the career.
Børge: 你越不为职业生涯感到压力,越投入于你正在做的事情,事情往往会自行解决。这就是我试图告诉世界经济论坛所有雄心勃勃的年轻人。
View/Hide Original English
The less you stress about your career uh and more committed you are to what you're doing uh then uh things have a tendency of solving itself. That's what I trying to tell also to all the very ambitious uh young people at the World Economic Forum.
Nicolai: 嗯,博尔格,你肯定非常投入于你所做的事情,祝贺你取得的一切成就。非常感谢你和我们在一起。
View/Hide Original English
Well, Booger, you for sure have been very committed to what you uh to what you do and a big congratulations with everything you uh you have achieved. Big thanks for being with us.
Børge: 谢谢你,尼古拉。谢谢你邀请我参加你的播客。这是我的荣幸。谢谢。
View/Hide Original English
Thank you, Nikolai. Thank you for inviting me to your podcast. It's a big honor. Thank you.